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$SNDK
Brothers, how many of you ignored the warnings and bought SanDisk last night?
Qiang said it very clearly yesterday—treat SanDisk like a shitcoin. It’s highly volatile and tends to move opposite to market sentiment.
Yesterday Nvidia’s earnings blew up, procurement commitments more than doubled, and SanDisk jumped over 3% pre-market, with the whole market shouting "storage is about to take off." Qiang said, "I don’t think it can break 1800," so what happened? As soon as the US market opened, funds started dumping. Morgan Stanley had already reclassified Nvidia as the top pick in the semiconductor sector before the earnings, clearly stating that funds would flow back from storage to Nvidia. What was good news turned into bad news, and everyone who chased the rally got stuck at the peak.
This script is too familiar. Big good news → pre-market pump → open market dump, a classic "sell the news" play. Expectations were too high, so when the news actually came out, it became a reason to sell.
Isn’t this just a pure pump-and-dump coin? It makes no sense when it goes up, and no sense when it goes down. Instead of struggling to analyze SanDisk, it’s better to just play Bitcoin and Ethereum honestly; at least their direction is clear and they move steadily Last October, Bitcoin was at $126,000, and the whole network was shouting "A million is not a dream." Today, at $80,000, the whole network is shouting "The bull is back."
No one mentions the 40% drop in between.
I'm not trying to be a downer—ETF funds are indeed pouring in crazily, and the logic of devaluation trading does hold. But when a market's greed index soars to 83, and a 20% weekly gain is mainly driven by short squeeze liquidations rather than spot buying, you have to ask yourself one question:
Is this round institutions bottom-fishing, or are retail investors taking the risk?
Tonight, $6.4 billion in options expire + Fed speech, a double bomb.
Smart money never adds positions when everyone else is excited.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC The market trend fully confirmed yesterday's judgment: yesterday, the dog holder's tail-end volume contraction rally to ¥615.03 was purely a bluff "bull trap." Today, after a gap-down opening, the spot price dropped all the way, directly erasing all of yesterday's gains and closing near the day's lowest point. 1. Opened with a gap-down plunge (bull trap busted):
Yesterday's close: ¥615.03
Today's open: ¥605.00 (a direct gap-down open of ¥10, trapping funds that chased the high at yesterday's close)
Today's close: ¥585.00 (-4.88%), a sharp drop of ¥30.03 compared to yesterday's close.
2. The internal market heavily suppressed the external market (extremely heavy selling pressure):
Internal market (active sell orders): 35,400 lots
External market (active buy orders): 21,400 lots
Analysis: The internal market exceeded the external market by 14,000 lots (internal market accounts for over 62%), indicating that throughout today, funds actively placed orders to dump positions at any cost, and bulls almost gave up resisting.
3. The average price line turned downward (locked-in positions accumulating):
Average transaction price for the day: ¥592.55
Analysis: The closing price (¥585.00) is below the daily average price (¥592.55) and close to the day's lowest point of ¥584.88. The ¥3.363 billion funds (turnover rate 18.86%) that traded above ¥592 have all fallen into unrealized losses, forming a new heavy locked-in position.
4. Volume ratio and no support after hours:
Volume ratio: 0.86 (shrinking volume with a slow decline, indicating weak buying support; even a small amount of selling pressure can push the price very low).
After-hours trading: only 23 lots (¥1.34 million), with no bottom-fishing funds entering after close.
Currently, the stock price has broken below the ¥590 integer level and closed near the lowest point with a bare candlestick, technically showing a typical weak bottom-seeking pattern: ironically, the Securities Daily still published an article? It's just continuing to deceive retail investors. We remain firmly bearish, with daily arbitrage opportunities of about 10%.#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Tonight at 10 PM, Walsh makes his debut at Jackson Hole. Let me be clear: don’t expect him to present a fully formed policy framework.
This guy just took office in May, formed five working groups in June, and had the team in place by July. Counting fully, that’s only two months. A framework isn’t something that can be finalized just by a breeze in the mountains.
He himself said the draft is like a “blank sheet.” Most likely, it will be a macro narrative plus hawkish confidence: reiterating that inflation isn’t over, keeping rate hike options open, cutting forward guidance, and clarifying the boundary between the Fed and the Treasury.
From a mid-term perspective, what he’s giving is a “sense of direction,” not a “roadmap” — the reaction function is vague, and he’s not revealing whether there will be a hike in September.
The market wants an anchor, but he’s giving fog. Tonight, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries will jitter in the short term, but the real framework depends on the working groups’ output, which will come in the next few quarters.
For those of us holding mid-term positions, don’t get led by the debut’s rhythm. Focus on the upcoming PCE and the September FOMC — that’s the real deal.
$BTC Good news piles up, yet Samsung plummets wildly! Behind the capital flight lies a harsh truth
Samsung's good news piles up—NVIDIA's HBM4E orders landed, Vietnam attracts investment, yet the stock price stubbornly falls instead of rising. The reason is simple: the positive news from NVIDIA's earnings report was already priced in yesterday, and the actual news release triggered the capital to flee.
Technically, RSI dropped to 38.9, close to oversold, MACD remains in a bearish alignment, the trend hasn't reversed yet. The capital battle is even more intense: the whale short position holds 12.19 million USDT with a 90% unrealized profit; the long side only has 7.29 million and is still losing money. Capital flow score is -78, with a 7-day net outflow of -1630%, confirming medium- to long-term capital is indeed withdrawing. But the company itself repurchased 1.96 trillion KRW, foreign investors sell while the company buys, a direct confrontation between bulls and bears.
The liquidation map shows a dense long liquidation zone below of about 18 million USDT, much larger than above; if the price continues downward, it will trigger a chain of liquidations, accelerating the drop to the critical support at 170-171, with resistance at 196-197 above. On August 3rd, a similar structure saw the price fall directly from 190 to 170.
In terms of operation, aggressive traders lightly try longs at the current price with proper stop-loss; conservative traders wait to short near 196. Short-term bears dominate, but I am not bearish mid-term—HBM demand exists, and the buyback is real money. Watch closely if 170 can hold; a capital flow score rising above -50 is the signal for stabilization.
—Aze #KOSPI Korean stocks fall as AI hype cools #TAIEX Taiwan stocks rebound to 46500 points driven by chip stocksThe core contradiction lies in the severe divergence between the strong rebound in U.S. stocks and the tightening economic fundamentals. Tonight's Fed keynote speech will directly reshape market expectations for rate cuts. Against the backdrop of core PCE above target and initial jobless claims falling to 203,000, a hawkish bias that maintains high interest rates for longer remains the baseline scenario.
Market facts show a significant surge in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 1.57%. Nvidia soared 8.74% in a single day, adding $442 billion in market value, while crude oil prices returned to $90. These asset price rebounds have greatly boosted risk appetite, but the fundamentals lack corresponding policy shift support.
Sticky inflation and robust employment data are the primary drivers of policy transmission. Initial jobless claims remain low at 203,000, combined with oil prices rebounding to $90, intensifying inflationary pressures and directly weakening the Fed's short-term rate cut rationale.
The upside scenario is a market rebound driven by expectation gaps. If Waller's speech does not clearly confirm a high-rate path or suggests room for policy framework adjustments, risk appetite previously suppressed by hawkish official signals will quickly release, driving short-term short squeezes in U.S. stocks and continued cross-market asset gains. The failure signal for this scenario would be a strong synchronous breakout in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index.
The downside scenario is a hawkish certainty triggering a high-level pullback. If Waller clearly reiterates maintaining high rates or emphasizes inflation control priority, the 203,000 jobless claims and strong inflation will be repriced by the market, and concentrated profit-taking in high-level long positions may cause a sharp U.S. stock pullback and increased volatility across risk assets. The failure signal for this scenario would be a rapid decline in oil prices breaking recent support levels.
The key variables to watch in the next 24 hours are the 22:00 keynote speech's tone on the policy framework and the intraday synchronous feedback of the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议比特币Coinbase溢价指数在连续14天为负后于8月26日回升至0。但这一回升伴随大规模获利了结：上周已实现利润平均达9.33亿美元，环比增824%；1至3个月代币的交易所流入增280%，1000至10000枚BTC钱包日流入达1,136枚BTC（+235%） 各交易所流量差异明显：币安净流入平均+2,184枚BTC，而全交易所净流出为-2,372枚BTC，Coinbase单日流出3,499枚BTC恰逢溢价归零当日。多头清算周增469%远超空头清算的15%，稳定币持续流出，买入支撑正在减弱 分析师指出，历史显示这种结构下区间震荡或浅幅回调的概率高于直接上涨，持续上行需溢价维持零以上且稳定币净流入转正，目前仅第一个条件满足On Thursday, August 27, the US stock market showed a typical independent tech stock rally: the S&P 500 closed up 0.72%, the Nasdaq surged 1.57%, with the S&P Information Technology sector rising as much as 3.4%. However, market divergence was very pronounced, with ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors closing lower; the index's rise was almost entirely driven by leading large-cap tech stocks.
The core driver of the market was Nvidia's earnings report igniting the AI theme: NVDA surged 8.7% that day, serving as the market's main engine. The company’s guidance significantly exceeded expectations, forecasting about 70% revenue growth for the new fiscal year, well above Morgan Stanley’s 52% and the market consensus of 40%, prompting a market revaluation and recognition that the AI capital expenditure cycle has not yet peaked.
Capital is no longer concentrated solely in a single leader; the rally is spreading, with the semiconductor index up 2.3%, and valuations for AI software, cloud services, and cybersecurity sectors being re-rated simultaneously.
However, it is important to be cautious: this is not a broad-based bull market rally. While the S&P 500 closed higher, the equal-weighted S&P 500 actually fell 0.3%, clearly indicating that the rally is highly concentrated in a few large-cap tech stocks, and the overall market’s profit-making effect remains weak. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 $TRX If you only look at the price, TRX hasn't been very attractive recently. It's currently around $0.337, briefly surged to $0.351 on August 22, then fell back to about $0.34, basically fluctuating over the past week.
But if you look at the price in the context of on-chain data, the situation is different.
In Q2 this year, the USDT volume on TRON reached about $89 billion, accounting for nearly half of the entire USDT market; during the same period, the stablecoin settlement volume processed reached $2.08 trillion. The network's daily active users averaged about 3.5 million, with protocol revenue around $89 million.
More interestingly, on August 26, the total number of TRON network accounts surpassed 400 million, and recently stablecoin payments remain the main driver of network growth.
So the current logic of TRX is actually quite different from SOL and Meme coins.
Its greatest value is not "telling a new public chain story," but rather having become an important global infrastructure for stablecoin transfers.
And the market is now waiting for another catalyst: Canary Capital's Staked TRX ETF. The application is still in progress, with the latest documents showing a management fee of 1.10%, and up to 90% of the fund's assets can be staked in TRX.
If the ETF is approved in the future, TRX could potentially receive two types of capital:
On one side, the on-chain stablecoin demand; on the other, institutional funds from the traditional financial market. Wash's Speech Preview: What's More Worth Paying Attention to Than Whether There Will Be a Rate Cut in September?
Wash's speech tonight is worth watching. But I think what really needs to be heard is not just whether there will be a rate cut in September.
More importantly, will he talk about:
· The Federal Reserve's future policy framework
· The balance sheet
· The relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy
The Core Contradiction in Policy Games
Currently, the U.S. fiscal side hopes to lower long-term financing costs, while the Federal Reserve needs to control inflation.
One wants to bring down long-term interest rates, the other needs to prevent inflation from rising again.
There is actually a very interesting policy game here.
Two Possible Scenarios for the Speech
If Wash only talks about September's policy tonight, the market may quickly digest it.
But if he starts discussing the long-term policy framework, the significance will be different.
Because the market is never just trading on a single rate cut.
What truly affects $BTC, U.S. stocks, and these risk assets is whether future liquidity will become more accommodative or continue to remain tight.
Tonight will reveal the answer.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Brothers, $BTC has surged back to 80,000 again, and my short positions are still holding! But can this iron wall at 80,000 really hold?
Today, BTC hit an intraday high of $81,478.87, with a cumulative monthly gain exceeding 28%. From the low of about $64,000 at the beginning of August, it has rebounded over 26% in just a few weeks. But 80,000 is an iron wall — touching it is one thing, standing firm is another!
The market data says it all.
The 24-hour trading volume is about $23.98 billion, with a 24-hour high-low price spread of $2,878.87. But the most critical data is here — $369 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with $225 million in short liquidations accounting for 60%. Shorts have been cleared out; how much longer can the fuel for this pump last?
Why is 80,000 the iron ceiling?
First, the $81,000–$86,000 range is a key daily supply zone. The Glassnode report clearly points out that Bitcoin’s selling pressure above is concentrated between $81,000 and $86,000. The $83,000 to $86,000 range is the first key supply zone, with chips mainly from long-term holders who haven’t sold for at least six months. After being rejected at $81,000, Bitcoin pulled back, testing whether there is enough real buying support behind this rally.
Second, the short squeeze-driven rally lacks sustainability. This round was triggered by record short liquidations — August 19 saw the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019. During the short squeeze window, short liquidations accounted for 85% of total liquidations. Forced buying can quickly push prices up, but every buy order from liquidation is closing an existing position, not creating sustained demand. Shorts are cleared out; who will take over now?
Third, funding rates are neutral but sentiment is extremely greedy. CoinGlass data shows BTC’s position and volume-weighted funding rates at 0.0070% and 0.0057%, both in neutral territory. But the Fear & Greed Index has returned to the "Extreme Greed" zone for the first time since the end of 2024. Historically, when this index stays in extreme greed for a long time, it often signals increased short-term correction risk. Long leverage is heavily stacked, and any pullback could trigger a stampede.
My short positions are still holding. If 80,000 can’t hold, the end of the frenzy will be a gloomy curtain call. Set your stop losses well — if it’s just a pullback, fine; if not, accept the loss.
Brothers, this short position is solid!
$ETH
$SOL The core of this passage is actually: Powell's statement tonight may determine whether the market will trade on "rate cut expectations" or "higher rates for longer" going forward.
Powell is usually cautious in his speeches, and the market often dissects every word. Therefore, the biggest variable now is not "whether the Fed will cut rates immediately," but rather:
Dovish: implying inflation is under control and there is room for future rate cuts → US Treasury yields may fall → pressure on the dollar and real interest rates eases → risk assets like BTC/ETH are more likely to rise.
Hawkish: emphasizing inflation risks, economic resilience, and no need to rush rate cuts → US Treasury yields may remain high → BTC faces valuation and liquidity pressure.
Particularly worth watching is the 10-year US Treasury yield. If yields continue to rise, it means returns on risk-free assets become more attractive, and risk assets will require higher risk premiums.
So what really matters tonight is not whether Powell explicitly says "rate cuts," but:
Whether Powell's wording can lead the market to lower the future interest rate path again.
If there is a "dovish Powell + falling US Treasury yields + weakening dollar," BTC is very likely to receive a relatively direct liquidity boost.
Conversely, if it is a "hawkish Powell + continued rise in US Treasury yields," then even if BTC experiences sharp short-term volatility due to options expiration, the difficulty of sustained gains will clearly increase.
Therefore, these three tags#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议
I am Cige. Iran has temporarily opened a specific route in the central part of the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. refuses to restore the June agreement and continues to apply sanctions on oil, shipping, finance, and cross-border payments to exert pressure. Iran insists on oil sales exemptions, lifting the blockade, and restoring the original agreement before fully opening the route. The temporary passage reduces the immediate risk of shipping disruption, but obstacles to oil exports and fund settlements remain unresolved.
Market judgments on crude oil, gold, and BTC depend on two things: whether the limited passage can be expanded and whether economic sanctions will cause actual supply losses before diplomatic negotiations. Iran's opening of the route is a tactical concession, while the U.S. sanctions are strategic pressure; both sides are seeking advantageous positions in a bargaining game.
Regarding BTC, the temporary opening of the route will suppress oil prices and risk sentiment in the short term, but ongoing sanctions mean the geopolitical risk premium will not fully dissipate. If the limited passage expands into a formal agreement, oil prices will continue to fall, inflation concerns will ease, and risk assets will benefit. If sanctions tighten further and Iran retaliates by blocking the strait, energy inflation may reheat, and BTC will rebalance between safe-haven demand and liquidity tightening.
The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking; savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL $XAU Central banks aggressively buying 289 tons vs whales overnight reducing positions by 81%: Gold price is staging a major battle between bulls and bears!
While Wall Street is still debating rate cuts, central banks have frantically purchased 289 tons of gold, hitting a four-year high. On the other hand, the largest on-chain bulls reduced their positions by 81.7% overnight, cashing out 4.33 million. The split between official heavy buying and speculative selling has gold prices stuck at the 4600 level, caught in a dilemma.
News insights: Besides gold purchases, what other key signals have you missed?
1. Why are central banks obsessed with buying gold? Beyond the usual "safe haven" logic, many overlook that since Q4 2023, the People's Bank of China has recorded its largest single-quarter reserve increase (33 tons) and has been increasing holdings for 20 consecutive months. This largely locks in future demand for hedging against US dollar credit risk rather than short-term profit chasing.
2. South Korea's central bank resumes gold buying after 13 years: In Q2, South Korea's central bank also joined the buying spree. This is an important geopolitical signal, marking a substantial shift in the Asia-Pacific region's allocation logic away from US dollar assets.
3. Gold ETF short covering: Many investors focus only on central banks but overlook that in July, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of about $3 billion. This indicates that after the previous sell-off and shakeout, institutional selling pressure has basically dried up.
In Shibei's view, the whales' position reduction should not be interpreted solely as a "crash warning" but more as a tactical rotation after taking profits.
XAU Market Strategy:
Short: Light short positions can be taken on rebounds to the 4597-4604 resistance area.
Long: Gradually add long positions if it stabilizes near 4560-4565 on pullbacks.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 This passage is actually discussing a very typical IPO pricing discipline:
It's not that Anthropic is not promising, but that investors are unwilling to pay the full IPO price for "illiquid shares."
The core logic has three layers:
Lock-up period = liquidity discount
If the shares you receive cannot be sold for 6 months, then they carry a different risk compared to freely tradable shares after listing. During this period, if valuation drops or market conditions change, you cannot exit.
IPO is not inherently a "cheap price"
Many hot IPOs launch when market sentiment is already very high. The initial offering price may include a lot of growth expectations. If the hype fades after listing, causing a "price drop below the issue price → re-pricing" scenario, patient capital may actually achieve a better risk-return ratio.
"I want it, but I want to wait for a better price" is the key
"Not buying Anthropic" and "not buying Anthropic at this price" are completely different.
If Anthropic falls below the IPO price in the future and the shares become fully freely tradable, investors actually gain two improvements simultaneously: valuation decline + increased liquidity.
As for your final mention of SPCX and CBRS returning to IPO levels, they seem to illustrate the same market phenomenon:
High expectations in the primary market ultimately have to accept re-pricing by real money in the secondary market.
This also aligns well with #AIShiftsToSoftware — AI software companiesAltcoin season? Not yet
It's really not altcoin season now. $BTC rose 22% in a week, breaking above 80,000, with ETF net inflows close to 2 billion USD, but Bitcoin's dominance is still fluctuating around 59%-60%. The altcoin season index is just over 40, far from the 75 threshold. BTC is gaining, memes are just sipping broth.
But memes are definitely lively: $TRUMP up 60% weekly, PENGU up 52%, $PEPE and WIF each up 46%. On-chain activity is even crazier, Robinhood Chain has become the new main stage, CASHCAT surged to a new market cap high of 250 million, and Solana's FONE skyrocketed 700% in a single day.
Three narratives: new chains creating wealth, AI+dog (Artificial Inu up 50% daily), and the machine dog Biscotti concept.
Can it hold? Uncertain. On the 28th, CASHCAT and PONS already started to fall, and the new coin BISCOTTI nearly halved. This round is essentially a high beta follow-up to BTC's big rally; when BTC pauses, memes fall even harder. True altcoin season requires dominance to break 55%. For those wanting to jump in, quick in and out—don't get attached to the fight. At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since becoming Fed Chair, attracting high market attention (5.73 million+ views).
· Before the meeting, officials like Schmidt and Harker have already taken a hawkish stance: inflation unresolved, no hope for rate cuts
2. Profile
· Nominated by Trump, known as "Volcker 2.0" — famous for aggressively raising rates to fight inflation, highly independent, with deeply rooted hawkish traits
3. Current economic data (contrary to rate cut expectations)
· Core PCE remains above the 2% target, inflation is sticky;
· Initial jobless claims dropped to 203,000, labor market remains strong — Fed lacks reason to cut rates.
4. Market status (divergence between sentiment and reality)
· US stocks just surged: Nasdaq +1.57%, Nvidia soared 8.74% in one day (market cap +$442 billion), oil prices back to $90;
· Market bets on "AI saves everything + rate cuts coming soon," but Fed officials repeatedly pour cold water.
5. Potential risks
· If Waller states "policy framework undecided, high rates still needed," it will directly suppress rate cut expectations;
· Amid the stock market's high-level euphoria, hawkish remarks may trigger sharp pullbacks.
6. Personal view (for reference only)
· Based on data, officials' warming-up, and Waller's personal style, a hawkish bias is likely; but the market has fully priced this in, so "expectation gaps" could cause short-term volatility.
· Recommend closely monitoring the reactions of the dollar, gold, US bonds, and US stocks after hours, and strictly managing risk.##沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察The core logic of this segment can be summarized in one sentence:
AI market trends are shifting from hardware companies that "sell shovels" to software companies that can truly convert AI into revenue and cash flow.
Marvell's growth leans more towards the explosion in AI infrastructure demand; while CrowdStrike better illustrates the next phase of the logic—AI not only increases computing power demand, but more importantly, whether software companies can achieve higher ARR, customer spending, and profits.
Therefore, the market may increasingly distinguish between two types of companies:
AI beneficiaries: experiencing order growth because customers are building AI infrastructure.
AI monetizers: able to directly convert AI capabilities into subscription revenue, ARR, and profit growth.
The latter may be the focus of the next phase of valuation expansion.
This also ties into the three tags you mentioned later:
#WalshPolicyFramework → macro policy and liquidity
#AIShiftsToSoftware → AI spreading from hardware/computing power to software monetization
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest → BTC testing market risk appetite near options expiry
In other words, what’s truly worth watching next is not "whether AI will keep rising," but:
Where AI money is actually starting to flow on the profit statements.
This may be more important than simply looking at the AI concept.Bro, your overall judgment here is correct. I'll break it down a bit deeper: this $TRUMP rebound is essentially not because the "fundamentals suddenly improved," but because political events + Meme sentiment + short covering + high beta capital rotation all collided at once.
Recent data shows TRUMP indeed rose from about $1.39 last week to around $2.43, an increase of about 75%; meanwhile, Trump recently pushed Congress again to advance the CLARITY Act and reiterated the US's leading stance in the digital asset space.�
Finbold +2
🚀 Why did it suddenly "resurrect"?
First: its biggest catalyst is not the product, but Trump himself.
Ordinary Meme coins need to create their own hype, but $TRUMP doesn't need to.
A single statement from Trump, a White House meeting, or a crypto policy announcement can directly become a trading catalyst for it.
After Trump publicly pushed Congress to pass the CLARITY Act on August 20, BTC, ETH, and multiple high beta crypto assets rose together; this shows that the market was trading not just a single Meme, but the whole chain of **"Trump policy → crypto market risk appetite recovery"**.�
Forbes +1
Second: $TRUMP is a typical "event-driven asset."
This coin's most dangerous and also most exciting aspect is here:
No news, it might be ignored; news,Bitcoin climbed from 69,000 all the way to 80,000, now hovering around 79,800. Ethereum has reclaimed above 2,500. This August is the strongest August since 2017. Prices are based on the day's data, so everyone should double-check for themselves. Some say the bull market is back, but I feel this is more like rekindling an old relationship. The other party suddenly starts treating you well, but don’t rush to be moved—you need to first understand why they suddenly treat you well. The reasons for this wave are actually all out in the open: the Treasury announced more long-term bond buybacks, Trump urged Congress to quickly pass the Clarity Act, spot Bitcoin ETFs have had eight consecutive days of net inflows, and Jackson Hole left a door open for rate cuts. It’s all about liquidity and policy expectations, not a sudden increase in real users on-chain. So this isn’t a fundamental improvement; it’s an improved environment. It’s like the person hasn’t become a better person, just that work has been going smoothly and their mood is good lately. This kind of market is the most comfortable but also the most dangerous. Comfortable because you can earn by going with the flow, dangerous because you might mistakenly think it’s your own insight. Policy expectations are very generous when given, but never give a heads-up when taken back. My own approach is simple: hold the positions I should, but don’t use leverage to bet on certainty, because I’m betting on the environment—and the environment is given by others who can change their minds at any time. Rekindling can be discussed, but don’t move all your luggage back at once. #比特币 #BTC #以太坊 #美联储降息 #加密市场French publicly listed company Capital B has increased its position again—€21 million private placement, planning to buy another 270 BTC, bringing total holdings to 3,415 BTC.
The list of strategic investors is interesting: Adam Back (inventor of Hashcash, a veteran on the Satoshi mailing list) and TOBAM (a French quantitative asset manager). These are not institutions chasing crypto trends, but seasoned investors who understand the technical logic.
The Bitcoin treasury strategy among European listed companies is gaining momentum. After the MicroStrategy model was validated, more and more non-US companies are starting to follow suit. The difference is: US companies buy Bitcoin through debt issuance, while European companies rely on equity financing—the regulatory environments differ, so do the tools.
What does 3,415 BTC mean? At current prices, about $200 million, which for a French listed company is no longer a "trial" but a core asset allocation.
The issue is: when Bitcoin becomes a "strategic reserve" for a listed company, its price volatility is no longer just a crypto market matter but a systemic risk that can affect stock prices, financial reports, and even credit ratings.#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 大概率不会明确一套可操作的利率政策框架。沃什今晚给的是"政策哲学框架"——通胀使命、AI供给侧、央行独立性三块，但不会给"利率路径框架"，即不给9月加息与否的明确承诺 这既符合他一贯的"去前瞻指引"风格，也因为他没打算在9月FOMC前把自己锁死 为什么说"难明确"（三层原因） 1. 风格上他就是"反框架"的人：5月上任后他把FOMC声明压缩到约130字、取消前瞻指引、取消点阵图、拒绝提交个人利率预测，明确要让"数据和市场"而非"官员发言"决定利率预期。今晚他不可能自打耳光、突然给出一条清晰的加息/降息路径 2. 时机上他不敢：距9月15-16日FOMC只剩约18天，且7月议息是9:3（2016年以来最大分歧），3位委员投加息票。他单方面给方向=替委员会做决定，会激化内部分裂 3. 形式上是"无Q&A"的主旨演讲：这是准备好的讲稿，没有现场追问，天然适合"框架阐述"而非"具体指引"。市场主流预期（约50%）就是"Deliberately Opaque——刻意模糊，不给近期指引" 维度： 1.利率路径（9月加息/降息） 2.2%通胀目标 Looking at the market from a different angle — the average withdrawal price on exchanges
When BTC is withdrawn from exchanges, a record is left on the blockchain. We can calculate the average withdrawal price across all exchanges to estimate the overall market cost basis.
The logic here is: we assume the time BTC was purchased on the exchange is close to the time it was withdrawn; therefore, the cost is approximately the price at that moment.
So, can you guess what the average cost of all BTC withdrawn from exchanges in 2026 will be?
$72,000 (green line in the chart) — this is a key figure.
Because, looking at the past two cycles, after the first wave of rally out of the bear bottom, the pullbacks always find a new supply-demand balance here.
For example, after a small bull run in December 2019, the first pullback was near the "2019 average exchange withdrawal cost (blue line)," slightly breaking below it.
The subsequent drop on March 12 was a special case, so we won't discuss it.
Another example: in March, June, and September 2023, the three pullbacks were all near the "2023 average exchange withdrawal cost," also slightly breaking below it. Your observation is actually quite interesting. The fact that SUI and GRAM (formerly TON) didn't keep up this round doesn't necessarily mean the projects are bad; it's more about funding styles, token distribution structures, and narrative fulfillment.
Let's start with SUI.
I think the biggest problem with SUI is **"the ecosystem is growing, but the token price lacks sufficient marginal buying pressure."**
Currently, SUI is around $0.77, and recently on-chain DEX activity has indeed picked up; however, at the same time, SUI still faces continuous token unlocking pressure, with a recent planned release of about 22.01 million SUI, roughly 0.22% of the maximum supply.�
CoinMarketCap +1
So it easily leads to a situation like this:
Good on-chain data → market sees potential → but new circulating tokens keep coming out → price gains are suppressed by supply.
Moreover, in the last cycle, SUI surged from around $0.4 to $5, which already fully priced in the expectations of a "new public chain + Solana alternative." To replicate a tenfold increase now requires not just ordinary ecosystem growth but a new super narrative plus a large influx of new capital.
Additionally, in May 2026, the Sui mainnet experienced nearly a 6-hour block production interruption. Although such an event may not necessarily change the long-term fundamentals, it makes investors more cautious before truly committing.�
CryptoRank
GRAM is even more worth watching.
The situation with GRAM and SUI$HYPE is standing above $80, but is the buying support enough below?
Currently, it’s moving sideways at a high level; the price hasn’t shown obvious weakness, but there are already quite a few longs in the contracts.
The current price is about $81.8, down slightly by 0.44%, with a trading volume of approximately $762 million.
The price is still near the previous high, and the volume hasn’t continued to expand.
This indicates that selling pressure is temporarily not heavy, and those chasing the price are starting to hesitate.
Regarding contracts:
Funding rate is about +0.0013%
Open interest is about $2.09 billion
The funding rate hasn’t reached an out-of-control level yet, but the open interest is very high.
The price continues to hold sideways, allowing longs to slowly digest costs.
If it breaks support, liquidations will amplify a normal pullback.
Regarding the company, Hyperliquid Strategies disclosed holding about 29.3 million HYPE tokens, valued at approximately $1.9 billion, and then invested another $773.4 million to buy about 16.5 million tokens at an average price of about $46.77.
This can support market sentiment, but company token purchases and platform revenue are not the same thing.
For HYPE to continue rising, it still depends on whether Hyperliquid’s trading volume and fees can keep increasing.
Support is at $78–$80, with resistance near $84.
HYPE is not suitable to be judged only by price gains now; whether the platform can continuously generate real trading demand is the key to whether it can go far later. First watch the support; don’t get carried away by a single bullish candle.
Big players have been buying HYPE over the past six months.
The price has been dollar-cost averaging from $50 to $80. Not sure if it can break $100 and keep going? Haha.The temporary opening of a central Hormuz lane reduces the immediate risk of disruption, but it does not yet resolve the larger constraint on energy flows. Iran is linking lasting passage to a U.S. MOU and demands including oil-sale waivers, while the Trump administration reportedly rejected the June deal and plans to retain oil, shipping, financial and cross-border-payment sanctions.
My read: physical access may improve before commercial certainty does. The key signal is not one reopened lane, but whether passage broadens while export and settlement barriers remain in place.
#IranOpensHormuzLaneWhy has $SLX been steadily declining after a surge? There's no rebound effect at all? Will it become the worst-performing coin this year, and what are the main reasons behind this decline?
First: Continuous selling pressure from token unlocking. After SLX was launched, it experienced large-scale airdrops and incentive activities, and tokens continue to be released into the market as planned. The increasing circulating supply without matching buying demand easily leads to a prolonged downtrend.
Second: Peak effect right after launch. SLX peaked around $0.65 shortly after launch, and it has since retraced nearly 90% from its all-time high. Many participants from airdrops and early mining gradually took profits at high levels, creating sustained selling pressure.
Third: Withdrawal of Korean funds. SLX's previous major rallies largely depended on funds from Korean markets like Upbit and Bithumb. Once retail enthusiasm in Korea wanes and no new narratives emerge, the price tends to fall continuously.
Fourth: Capital rotation in the DeFi sector. Recently, market funds have flowed more into BTC, ETH, and popular AI, RWA, and L1 projects. Solana DeFi is not currently the strongest theme. When funds leave, small-cap coins often experience steady declines rather than sharp crashes.
Fifth: Project fundamentals temporarily unable to offset selling pressure. Although Solstice has actual products and TVL support, the market currently focuses more on token supply changes rather than protocol revenue, so fundamental positives cannot yet overcome the pressure from token unlocking.Today is my "Chives Exposure Day."
This morning, I couldn't resist and took a small bite from $BTC.
At that moment, I felt like a trading genius.
I read the candlesticks better than anyone.
At noon, there was a pullback, and not only did I give it all back,
I even lost an additional full amount!
Bro, I just got liquidated on a short during this rebound, and I'm fuming.
But I looked at the data, and this rebound really lacks strength.
Look at the data: in the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $383 million.
Ethereum shorts liquidated accounted for $76.17 million.
Longs only liquidated $44.93 million.
So many shorts got wiped out.
This shows the rebound is just targeting short liquidations, not a real rise.
$ETH's total open interest increased by 11.15% in 24 hours.
Funds are still flowing in, the position sizes are getting heavier.
And now ETH is around $2496.
Upwards near $2613, there's $926 million in short liquidation pressure.
Downwards near $2386, there's $886 million in long liquidation waiting.
Both sides are mines; the main players won't let the leverage run wild without shaking it out.
It simply can't rally.
Honestly, if a big bull market really comes next,
I've set a strict rule for myself:
Over 80% of my money
will be locked tight in BTC, ETH, these mainstream giants, unmoving like a mountain.
The small remainder
will be used to gamble on high-leverage altcoin contracts like $DOGE.
After all, the project teams are still active, and the communities aren't dead yet.
At the end of a bull market, there might really be a last flash rally.
But it must be with a small position. What hurts DeFi the most about Moonwell this time is that the attacker doesn't necessarily have to break the code
As long as the collateral is thin enough, the price is easy to push, and the oracle is slow enough, a small coin can be temporarily inflated into a large asset, then real money can be borrowed from the lending pool. It sounds like magic, but it's actually the oldest risk control question: can you really trust the price of the collateral?
Many protocols like to talk about TVL, yield, and ecosystem expansion, but when things really go wrong, users realize the most critical thing is asset admission and liquidity depth. If no one takes the collateral when it exits, then no matter how much it is worth on paper, it's very illusory.
What DeFi fears most is not hackers showing off skills, but risk control treating paper prices as real purchasing power. Once the money is borrowed away, what remains are just pretty parameters and ugly holes
#Moonwell遭价格操纵，抵押风险暴露 市场最脆弱的环节不在BTC，而在衍生品市场的仓位上。 当大家都在盯价格，谁在盯结构？ 说实话，这轮行情走到现在，越来越觉得现货价格只是表象，真正的战场在期货和期权市场里。我凌晨看盘时注意到几个很有意思的信号，想跟大家拆开聊聊。 先说大背景。QQQ被科技股走弱和长端收益率压制，Nvidia财报和PCE数据这周就是方向盘。但很多人忽略了一点：衍生品市场已经把"AI叙事验证失败"这个风险开始定价了。从734跌到706附近，短期均线全部承压，这不是单纯的技术回调，是市场在调整预期。 BTC这边，突破80000后能不能站稳，关键不在现货买盘，而在永续合约的资金费率。如果费率冲得太高，杠杆多头太拥挤，一个回调就会引发连锁清算。目前看，BTC的衍生品结构比美股健康，但山寨就没有这么幸运了。 - BICO上了Upbit的BTC交易对，第一波流动性刺激已经消化完，现在进入高换手震荡。缩量企稳说明有抄底资金，但要放量突破调整区才算数，否则就是反复挨打。 - BEAT的大额解锁供应还没消化完，这波反弹基本是超卖修复。衍生品上，空头回补的力度在减弱，如果反弹继续缩量，小心供应端再次压制。 - OKB还在等X A red flag ignored by everyone: BTC recorded its largest dollar weekly gain in history this week—a single-week increase in market cap surpassing any previous three-digit surge. Because BTC's market cap has now reached $1.6 trillion, a 9% weekly gain is historic for the dollar. Sounds like a big bullish sign, right? But at the same time, the Fear and Greed Index soared to 82 (extreme greed). Historically, every time this reading appears, it is followed by a sharp correction. Record rally + extreme greed = top signal or new starting point? To put it plainly, explain this contradiction: Why the "largest dollar weekly gain in history": BTC's market cap is no longer what it used to be. Previously, a 40% increase would move tens of billions in market cap; now, a 9% increase moves over a hundred billion. The percentage isn't the largest, but the dollar amount is record-breaking. Why extreme greed is dangerous: A reading of 82 means latecomers are rushing in, and leverage is accumulating. Prior extreme greed spikes are all near local tops, not bottoms. Key verification: Futures open interest in volume coins has rebounded by 11%, with a neutral funding rate. This indicates that this rally is spot-driven, not leverage-driven—relatively healthy, but the 83,000-86,000 is a dense cost zone for long-term holders, with huge selling pressure. My judgment: The record rise is real, but extreme greed is also real. Holding the 80,000 point in the short term is key; breaking below 76,600 (short-term holder cost line) = the end of this round of rebound. Now is not the time to go all in, but don't be blindThis judgment about the general direction is valid, but there is a key point that needs correction: the Strait of Hormuz is currently "under negotiation and arrangement for resuming navigation," and it cannot yet be said that normal navigation has fully resumed.
The latest reports show that Iran and Oman are indeed advancing a temporary shipping corridor and discussing arrangements such as clearing mines; however, the specific conditions for reopening are still under negotiation, and shipping volume remains far below normal levels. Reuters also reported today that only 7 bulk commodity ships passed through the strait on Thursday, significantly lower than the 10-day average previously.
Reuters +1
For oil prices, this is indeed a clear bearish factor.
The market has already priced in a "reduction in supply risk":
WTI recently approached $80
Brent recently fell to the $86–89 range
The market is clearly compressing the geopolitical premium previously formed due to the Hormuz risk.
Reuters +2
And Hormuz itself is very important; under normal circumstances, about one-fifth of the world's oil transportation passes through here, so once the market believes navigation can sustainably recover, continued pressure on oil prices is reasonable.
Japan Times
But I most agree with your statement:
"It cannot yet be directly considered the end of the Iran issue."
Because there are actually two variables now:
① Hormuz navigation → bearish for oil prices
② US-Iran relations/sanctions/military risks → tail risk of oil prices rising again still exists
Especially since navigation itself has not yet fully normalized, if subsequent negotiations fluctuate, the previously suppressed geopolitical risk premium...#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Wash can talk tough and hawkish
but he won't really play the rate hike card.
I feel that tonight's Jackson Hole event, what the market really wants to hear is not "whether to cut rates or not," but what the path forward actually looks like.
With Trump's midterm elections approaching, the policy space for rate hikes is inherently limited. I lean more towards "breaking long into short," using short-term debt to replace long-term U.S. Treasuries to ease pressure on the long end, while verbally maintaining hawkish expectations, waiting for the key window to open for rate cuts.
In recent days, there has been continuous net inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which I pay attention to. This indicates that support at the lower levels is not weak. On the U.S. stock side, Nvidia can still hold up, but high-volatility stocks like SanDisk and SPCX have started to diverge. If AI can't continue to drive the U.S. stock market, funds might instead look for a breakthrough in the crypto market.
So my current script is: Bitcoin and Ethereum may first experience a small short-term drop and some volatility to shake out chasing funds, then continue to rise driven by policy expectations and capital inflows. $BTC $ETH $BTC 全球金融市场的核心焦点正紧盯着杰克逊霍尔央行年会。作为新任美联储主席，凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的这场首秀，正演变为一场资本与货币政策之间的心理拉锯战。 美股的乐观与政策的现实 受科技股强劲表现与AI产业逻辑推动，美股市场此前迎来反弹。然而，高企的资产价格与美联储所面临的宏观经济约束形成了鲜明对比： * 通胀韧性顽固：核心PCE指标仍高于2%的既定目标，叠加能源价格波动，价格回落过程依然曲折。 * 劳动力市场稳健：初请失业金人数处于低位，显示就业市场并未出现断崖式下滑，削弱了短期内实施激进宽松政策的必要性。 * 官僚阵营的鹰派声音：多位联储官员在会前相继表达对通胀反弹的警惕，警示市场切勿过早博弈宽松转向。 沃什的政策考量与前瞻信号 沃什被市场视作重视抗通胀决心与独立性的决策者。在其掌舵初期，其公开表态的重点往往不在于给予短期利率路径的明确指引，而在于重塑央行政策框架。 * 拒绝预喂预期的定力：相比过去的“前瞻性指引”，沃什更倾向于依赖数据，保留政策弹性。 * 宏观长远视角：讲话重心可能落脚于生产率提升、AI对经济的长期影响以及中性利率的重新评估，而非满足市The most useful aspect of this snapshot isn't just guessing the price, but seeing where your attention is focused. According to OKX Onchain OS's official ranking updated at 12:00 on August 28, BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 55, 19, and 39 times in the past hour, respectively. These numbers indicate discussion density; They do not include trading volume, cash flow, or account holdings. BTC ranks first in mentions, with a short-term window speed of 0.71 times the 24-hour hourly average, indicating a 'clear slowdown.' In terms of tone, 56% are slightly bullish, 5% bearish, and about 39% neutral, so leading in popularity and aligning in direction are not the same thing. The other two stocks also have their own rhythms. BTC is clearly slowing down, with a clear advantage in bullishness; ETH is clearly slowing down and clearly bullish in a clear advantage; SOL, on the other hand, is roughly close to the long-window average, with a clear advantage in bullish mode. Putting these three states together is closer to the current market than picking only the highest percentage. If we had to compare tone, SOL has the highest bias margin and is currently classified as "clearly bullish with a clear advantage." But don't be fooled by the speed: when mention speed hasn't increased in tandem, it only means the current discussion leans toward one side, not that more people are rapidly forming the same view. Conversely, if mentions accelerate and the bearish ratio rises, it may just be a risk event attracting more attention. The source structure is also worth watching. BTC's one-hour content was almost entirely driven by X, while ETH was mainly driven by XGot offered Anthropic IPO. I said only if it’s all free trading stock. They said it’s locked up for 6 months. I said then it needs to be a big discount to IPO.
“You really don’t want Anthropic IPO!!!?”
“If I want it, I’ll buy it when it round trips below IPO price and it’s all free trading. Most of the time that’s what happens”
SPCX and CBRS back at IPO levels.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Everyone is shouting "BTC breaks 80,000, the bull market is here!" But one piece of data sends chills down the spine of veteran traders: futures open interest in coin-margined contracts has dropped by 11%, yet the funding rate remains neutral. Translation: the price has risen, but leveraged funds haven't kept up. What does this mean? It means this rally isn't a leveraged frenzy, but it also means that the 83,000-86,000 range above is the real "hard bone." This is where concentrated selling pressure from long-term holders gathers, making it the most critical supply zone for BTC in this cycle. Laying out the market truth: Good news: ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, exceeding $3 billion in August; the 7-day EMA on-chain has realized net profits of about $752 million, with gains around $1.1 billion. Spot demand is genuinely entering, not a fake rally. Bad news: 83,000-86,000 is a dense cost zone for long-term holders, with many "break-even" positions waiting to sell. Futures leverage has dropped 11%, indicating professional funds dare not add leverage above 80,000—they know there is selling pressure above. Key watershed: Three observation indicators (recommended to watch closely): This rally is healthy but not easy. Healthy because it is "spot-driven, leverage not frenzied"; not easy because "83,000-86,000 is hard bone." In the short term, it will likely grind repeatedly between 76,600 and 83,000, waiting for sustained ETF inflows and direction from Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Don't go all in on every rise, nor cut losses on every dip—this is a chip exchange period, not a one-sided trend period.The next round of AI is most likely to have unexpected outcomes not from GPUs, but from Google's self-developed chips.
A key change this week is that $GOOGL has officially brought Marvell into its self-developed AI chip supply chain. If their cooperation meets the target, it could bring $MRVL $120 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2033, and Google has even obtained Marvell stock warrants worth up to $12.2 billion. On the day the news broke, MRVL surged 8% at one point, while $AVGO, deeply tied to Google's TPU, dropped over 5%.
This shows that big companies are no longer satisfied with buying more Nvidia GPUs. The larger the model and the higher the inference volume, the more outrageous the chip bill becomes. Self-developed ASICs can optimize performance and cost specifically for their own models. OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are all moving in this direction. Anthropic is even reaching out to chip startups to strengthen its hardware capabilities.
But this does not mean $NVDA is doomed. Nvidia just reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, with data center revenue up 117% year-over-year, and next quarter guidance at $108 billion. Demand for general-purpose GPUs remains very strong.
What I’m more focused on now is the differentiation among NVDA+AVGO+MRVL: GPUs continue to take the largest share, ASICs start to capture specific workloads, and those designing chips for tech giants are beginning to profit. The next phase of AI chips is not about who replaces Nvidia, but about a market large enough to support multiple winners.Something "strange" happened in the US stock market last night: Nvidia's CFO expects fiscal year 2028 revenue growth of about 70%, far exceeding analysts' forecast of 44%; Jensen Huang himself said, "Actual demand growth is close to 100%, but it's just being held back by supply." Nvidia surged 5% in after-hours trading. On the same night, Bitcoin broke through $80,000 and rose another 2% in 24 hours. Many people didn't understand: AI chips and Bitcoin have nothing to do with each other, so why did they surge simultaneously? The logic behind this is closer than you think: The same pipeline: AI concept stocks and BTC are simultaneously benefiting from the warming of market risk appetite. Previously, the market believed "AI up = BTC down" (capital rotation), but now it has become "AI up = BTC up" (liquidity resonance). BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 reached 44.8%: this number hit a recent high. It shows that BTC is no longer an "independent market," but a "leveraged version" of tech stock risk appetite—when tech stocks rise 1%, BTC rises 2-3%. Liquidity is the source: The US Treasury expanded long bond repurchase scale from $2 billion to $4 billion, the dollar weakened, and money flowed simultaneously into AI stocks, gold, and BTC. This is a "fiat credit hedging trade," with AI and BTC as beneficiaries. Data confirms: BTC's 44.8% correlation with the S&P 500 this week, and the fear and greed index at 82, indicate a comprehensive rebound in risk assets, not just BTC rising alone. Over the past three years, there has been debate over whether BTC is a safe-haven asset or a risk asset; now the answer is revealed:ATOM is showing signs of recovery in this wave, with cross-chain and modular narratives being picked up by funds again after the overall market sentiment improved. However, the core issue long discussed about Cosmos remains unchanged: how to more effectively channel ecological value back to ATOM itself. The short-term rebound can be understood as a correction under rising market risk appetite, but to form a sustained trend, it still depends on substantial progress in cross-chain applications, inter-chain security, and the activity level of ecosystem projects. Relying solely on conceptual hype usually has limited sustainability. $ATOM🐮🐻 Many people still don't believe: the bear market has ended, and the bull market has started❗️
My personal prediction: the bottom of this Bitcoin bear market is at 57,800, the bear market most likely ended at 57,800, and the bull market is in its initial stage.
However, I believe the prediction "the bear market has ended, the bull market has started" is basically correct but requires two prerequisite conditions.
My judgment is based on three levels:
1. Technical structure: Natural trading theory and weekly-level confirmation of market and structural reversal.
The price dropped to the 0.618 level of the large cycle Fibonacci retracement between 126,800 and 15,500, which is around 58,000 USD, very precisely at the 0.618 level.
According to natural trading theory, the 0.618 level near 58,000 USD is a strong gravitational point, traditionally considered a strong support level.
The weekly close has risen above the 50-week EMA (around 77,000-78,000), the first time since November 2025.
Combined with the weekly RSI forming a bullish divergence near 57,800 and the price rebounding more than 25% from the bottom, the technical aspect has upgraded from a "rebound" to a "preliminary reversal."
57,800 precisely touched the 200-week moving average area, which historically marked bear market bottoms accurately in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The very standard 5-wave downward correction structure at the weekly level has been completed, but the expected final drop and extended wave did not appear; the price surged directly under the calls from Trump and the White House!
2. On-chain and capital flow: funds are continuously flowing in.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion inflow in August, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2026. The CryptoQuant Bull Score index jumped from 30 to 80, with 8 out of 10 indicators bullish. Whale wallets have accumulated an additional 222,000 BTC since their historical highs. This is not retail behavior; large funds are continuously buying.
3. Macro and regulation: the worst phase is over.
Although PCE exceeded expectations, it is no longer out of control; while rate cut expectations have softened, the rate hike cycle has been confirmed to have ended, and the tightest monetary policy phase has passed.
The SEC compliance framework proposal marks a shift in US crypto regulation from "enforcement as regulation" to clear rules. Although the CLARITY Act is delayed, the direction is clear.
Unless a global financial crisis occurs and the US stock market continues to crash, the Bitcoin bull market will not be cut short!
To be 100% certain that a new BTC bull market has started, two prerequisite conditions can add confidence:
Prerequisite one: The 82,000-83,000 level needs volume confirmation.
Galaxy Research's standard is a weekly close above 82,470 (50-week moving average), which is the final technical signal confirming the end of the bear market.
Currently, 79,000-80,000 is about 3-5% away from 82,000; this breakthrough needs to be completed. If 82,000 is broken with volume and confirmed by a weekly close, the conclusion of "bull market start" upgrades from "high probability" to "confirmed."
If repeatedly resisted, a period of consolidation may still be needed.
Prerequisite two: "Bull market start" ≠ "main upward wave."
A typical feature of the early bull market is "two steps forward, one step back," repeatedly retesting and confirming the bottom rather than a vertical surge. There is a large amount of trapped and profit-taking positions near 82,000 that need to be digested; this process cannot happen overnight.
Short-term pullbacks to 77,000-78,000 or even 73,500-75,000 are possible, which is a normal retest confirmation in the early bull market and does not change the medium-term direction.
57,800 is the bottom of this bear market; the bear market has ended. The bull market has started but is in its initial stage. A true full bull market requires a volume breakout at 82,000-83,000 for final confirmation.
Before confirmation, short-term pullbacks are normal structure and also opportunities to enter!
There is still a way to go between "bear market end" and "main bull wave," a phase called "repeated confirmation."
The bull market ends in euphoria and is born in doubt!$NVDA $BTC Last night Nvidia made a sharp reversal, surging 8.74% to close at $227.98, with its market cap soaring nearly 3 trillion RMB in a single day, a very strong move.
But those who understand know this rebound is not purely driven by positive earnings; it’s a typical case of bad news being priced in and sentiment recovering.
This earnings report is particularly interesting. Although the performance clearly exceeded expectations across the board, the stock initially dropped 3% after hours because market expectations had already been overheated, and Nvidia has broken the "earnings curse" for four consecutive quarters, with positive news being priced in and then sold off. The violent rally at the end was entirely due to the official long-term revenue guidance, which stabilized institutional and market confidence.
From a short-term market perspective, Nvidia’s overall gain in the past two weeks has exceeded 12%, with short-term momentum fully recovering. However, the current position is awkward, very close to the previous high of $236, facing heavy pressure from both trapped sellers and profit-taking.
Therefore, I believe the long-term trend is still upward, with no fundamental issues, but short-term chasing of the rally blindly is not advisable. Right now, it’s a high-level consolidation and accumulation phase, suitable only for buying on dips to capture swings. Chasing highs at this level will only lead to being repeatedly harvested. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #财报观察员：AI demand is spreading from hardware to software
The AI narrative is undergoing a shift "from selling shovels to mining gold" — the market is no longer satisfied with the computing power story on the hardware side, but is starting to evaluate whether the software side can truly turn AI investment into real money
· The hardware logic remains the strongest, but expectations are fully priced in: Nvidia and Marvell's earnings have indeed exploded (Marvell's revenue up 37% year-over-year), and their stock prices have long been priced accordingly ~ these stocks will be extremely sensitive to "exceeding expectations" going forward, and even slightly missing the most optimistic expectations could cause drastic fluctuations ~
· The software side is the next source of "expectation gaps": the rise of CrowdStrike and Salesforce indicates that capital is beginning to recognize the logic of AI improving renewal rates and average revenue per user ~ compared to the one-time hardware purchase boom, subscription-based recurring revenue (ARR) can indeed provide a more stable valuation premium. This is a direction worth focusing on next ~
· Differentiation is intensifying, you can't "blindly buy AI": Synopsys fell after its earnings report, indicating that even within the AI sector, the visibility of earnings guidance and competitive landscape are key variables. The market is shifting from Beta to Alpha stock selection
Mapping this to the crypto market, this is actually a very similar stage — AI-related tokens (such as FET, TAO, etc.) have also experienced a broad rally driven by hardware/computing power narratives, and the next step is to screen for projects with real-world applications and revenue models. The risk of purely riding the concept is increasing$SAMSUNG Samsung Crash Truth! A Mountain of Positive News, Why Is Capital Fleeing Frenziedly?
Candlestick charts can deceive, but capital cannot—when positive news piles up, smart money is quietly retreating.
The news is all positive (NVIDIA HBM4E, Vietnam investment promotion), but the stock price fell instead—positive news realized is negative; NVIDIA's earnings report yesterday was already priced in.
Technical: $SAMSUNG 1-hour RSI at 38.9 near oversold, volume shrinking on the decline, but MACD shows a bearish alignment, trend not reversed.
Capital: Whale short positions hold 12.19 million USDT, with 90% profit; longs only 7.29 million USDT, currently at a loss. Capital flow score -78, 7-day net outflow -1630%, mid-to-long-term capital continuously withdrawing. However, the company repurchased 1.96 trillion KRW, foreign and retail investors are selling, intense long-short battle.
Liquidation map: The dense long liquidation zone below is about 18 million USDT, much larger than above; if the decline continues, cascading liquidations will accelerate the drop to 170-171, resistance at 196-197. Similar structure on August 3, price fell from 190 to 170.
Dayu's operation advice: Aggressive fans enter long positions now; conservative fans enter short positions near 196.
Conclusion: Short-term bearish, mid-term bullish. Watch closely for support at 170 and whether capital flow recovers above -50. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 A bit hard to understand, Nvidia's guidance exceeded expectations, logically the biggest beneficiaries should be those selling storage and optical modules. The day before, Micron even rose over 5% pre-market, SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix also rose more than 4%, a total celebration.
But the next night, it all gave back, Micron fell over 7% after hours, Micron, SanDisk, and Seagate fell over 1%.
Micron still holds Google's $120 billion big order, custom chip orders until 2033,
And it still got smashed like this, what can I say? I can only say the market sentiment now is "take profits after a big rise," good news is already bad news, good news is treated as selling, hilarious.
Let it fall, let it fall, I'll keep accumulating Cai Ju as it drops.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 The script for each BTC bottom cycle is always the same few pages: first, a violent surge with a big bullish candle of 20%-30%, then a sideways consolidation that grinds on for two to three months. Even if you catch the real bottom, without some resolve, you’ll most likely give up your position during that sideways phase — after the shakeout is when the real takeoff happens.
The next two to three months, I estimate, will be the trash time for crypto. Strong altcoins might swing back and forth within a large range, but most altcoins will just steadily decline; BTC and ETH will also fluctuate randomly within a small range, with no clear direction. During this phase, I definitely won’t do small-scale swing trades, and I certainly won’t short.
For spot holders, be patient; for contract traders, don’t fight the trend. The best window for shorting has already closed, and trying to scalp small moves during this sideways phase is honestly pointless.
Lying low might be the least bad choice.🛌 #BTC #CryptoMarket #TradingStrategy#Warsh to debut tonight at Jackson Hole, can he clarify the policy framework? Warsh's stance on AI itself is one of the core highlights of this speech:
His core argument ("AI deflation theory"):
Warsh has consistently argued that AI will ultimately be deflationary — that is, AI improves productivity and will lower inflation in the long term.
This argument is an important support for his "pause rate hikes" stance: if AI can continuously suppress inflation, the Fed has reason to be more patient with the currently elevated inflation data.
But this argument is now facing self-contradictory pressure:
In the short term, AI infrastructure construction (data centers, computing power) requires huge capital expenditures, and this funding demand itself is pushing up inflation and long-term interest rates — because tech giants issuing bonds and U.S. Treasuries are competing for the same pool of institutional funds, which is one reason why the 30-year yield remains at a 2019 high.
In other words: the logic he uses to support "AI will ultimately be deflationary, so we can hold steady" is being counteracted in the short term by the reality of "AI capital expenditures pushing up interest rates."
A conflict of interest detail worth noting:
Reports mention that Warsh has had a 30-year private relationship with Silicon Valley investor Andreessen, who publicly supported Warsh's nomination. Andreessen's company a16z manages a large portfolio of AI and crypto asset investments — if the Fed's "AI deflation theory" is adopted and supports maintaining low interest rates, it objectively benefits the valuation of such assets.
The Fed has not yet publicly responded to this potential conflict of interest issue $HYPE current price $84.90, 24h +0.23%, market cap $18.88B. The key is not whether it has risen, but that it is only 2% away from the all-time high of $86.75, making it the coin closest to a new high in the entire market.
Sentiment thermometer: boiling hot. But something boiling hot will either keep boiling or burn your hand. HYPE’s foundation is the fee dividends from the Hyperliquid perpetual contract protocol; if on-chain trading volume shrinks, the valuation logic wobbles. RSI is repeatedly testing around 70, MACD is dulled at a high level, and the technical indicators are already signaling "don’t chase."
My stance is very clear: don’t treat it as your main position. Keep your position under 5%, treat it as a "high Beta speculative" satellite position; if you profit, it’s luck, if you lose, it won’t hurt much.
The closer to the new high, the more you should be cautious. Beginners die chasing highs, veterans die from greed, experts die from being fully invested. Capital flows often reveal the true intentions of institutions earlier than price fluctuations. Just as market sentiment wavers, the spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum have delivered a substantial report 🟠 — $BTC-related ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $245 million, with a weekly total reaching $1.89 billion; $ETH is not far behind, with a single-day inflow of $155 million and a weekly total of $842 million. Such sustained buying at this scale is clearly not driven by scattered retail investors.
What is even more intriguing is Ethereum's catching-up momentum. Although the absolute amount is still lower than Bitcoin's, the weekly proportion is quietly rising, suggesting a subtle rebalancing of capital preference toward risk assets 📈. When institutions shift their focus from a single leader to the second-largest asset, it often means their confidence in the entire digital asset category is strengthening, rather than just betting on a single coin.
However, it remains prudent not to simply define every dip as a "golden pit." ETF inflows represent long-term allocation demand, which does not fully align with the short-term derivatives market's game logic. If macro data surprises or option expirations trigger volatility expansion, capital flows may also reverse in a short time. The key observation should not be the single-day figures but whether this inflow rhythm can continue for several weeks — that is the critical factor in judging the trend's quality. Risk warning: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. The above content does not constitute any investment advice.#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Strategy is increasing cash through additional issuance, and the BTC allocation pace is under scrutiny.
Strategy continues to expand its USD cash reserves by issuing more shares, steadily increasing the cash pool size. The market's full attention is on this Bitcoin-leading company's subsequent coin purchasing rhythm. Unlike the previous aggressive model of "raising funds and immediately increasing BTC holdings," this time the raised funds are primarily used to pay preferred stock dividends and optimize the capital structure, without immediately buying Bitcoin, keeping holdings stable.
From an optimistic perspective, ample cash serves as ammunition for future dollar-cost averaging. The company has established a disciplined buying strategy: increase BTC accumulation when it is below the long-term moving average, and hold cash defensively at high levels, effectively reserving room to buy the dip during market pullbacks, maintaining a firm long-term Bitcoin reserve strategy.
Personal view: Additional issuance essentially dilutes equity and cannot be directly equated with positive news. The company currently faces significant fixed interest payment pressure, so cash reserves are first used to stabilize finances rather than blindly hoard coins. If the coin price remains high for a sustained period, the pace of accumulation will likely slow; only a deep correction would trigger large-scale purchases. Do not habitually assume that BTC rising means Strategy will simultaneously increase holdings.
For the crypto market, this company's allocation moves are medium- to long-term supply and demand signals and cannot influence short-term trends. Short-term BTC price movements are still dominated by ETF funds and macro interest rates, so one should not blindly chase highs based solely on Strategy's capital actions.