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The worst thing at the dinner table is to hear one sentence: "If you don't have enough money, borrow more." In the short term, you can still eat and get by; Over time, what truly keeps you awake isn't the IOU itself, but the interest that gets deducted every month. The U.S. is doing the same this time. By August 18, 2026, the total outstanding public debt in the United States will reach $40,047,425,768,420.22, officially surpassing the $40 trillion threshold. Who is affected? Not just the U.S. Treasury, nor just Wall Street traders. It affects those who buy U.S. Treasury bonds, those holding dollar assets, companies that settle and price in dollars, and ordinary families who seem far removed from Treasuries, caring only about vegetable prices, mortgages, fund net asset value, and exchange rate fluctuations every day. Much of the world's money flows through the U.S. Treasury bond pipeline. Readers now need to verify three things: First, $40 trillion refers to the total outstanding public debt of the United States, which does not equal a deficit in one year or the entire concept of national debt circulating in the market; Second, the public holds about $32.27 trillion in debt, while the government holds about $7.78 trillion; Third, the real focus is not on whether the company will suddenly collapse someday, but on whether interest payments, bond yields, fiscal deficits, and the credit of the dollar continue to be under pressure. [40 trillion is not a scary slogan] Many financial figures easily turn into emotions when they get big. 40 trillion dollars—ordinary people find it hard to feel it. It's not like a pound of vegetables rising from 5 to 8 yuan, not like paying a mortgage of several hundred yuan a month, or like a child Major event in the crypto world today!! On August 19, the U.S. Treasury Department announced: starting September 9, the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks will at least double, increasing from $2 billion each time to $4 billion. The market immediately called it "QE Lite." The effect was immediate: the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 7 basis points in one day to 4.641%, the 30-year dropped 10 basis points to 5.189%, and the dollar index fell 0.83% to 98.833. The transmission chain is very direct: easing long-term rates → dollar depreciation → risk asset revaluation → $BTC $ETH Last week, posts complaining that "30-year Treasury at 5.216% is a gray rhino" now need a new headline. My conclusion: the macro window is reopening, and the mid-term environment for $BTC is improving. My strategy: build positions in batches on pullbacks to $67K-$68K, stop loss if it breaks $66,000; mid-to-long-term target $72K-$75K. Risks involved: Treasury buybacks are not true QE, just "pressuring the yield curve," the real direction will be set by the September FOMC. Sure enough, a statement from the Treasury is more effective than a Fed rate cut. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $ETH $BTC partly dropped because last night the US Treasury's long-term bond repurchase caused long-term US Treasury yields to soar to multi-year highs, putting pressure on the market. The Treasury announced it would at least double the repurchase scale for 10-30 year bonds to $4 billion, enhancing long-term liquidity and suppressing yields. Once the news came out, yields fell back, risk appetite rose, driving this big bullish candle. The core is that the policy signal alleviates financing pressure, benefiting risk assets including crypto.Before the U.S. stock market opens, is anyone willing to pay a 30% reduction to receive social security benefits early? 1) Has the market responded? 2) Where is the real impact? Trump is pushing a crypto regulatory bill, sparking market expectations for policy clarity. If the bill passes, it could reduce industry uncertainty, benefit crypto asset valuations, and indirectly boost risk appetite. However, the bill is still under congressional review, progress is not public, and the impact path needs verification. 3) Both sides need to be considered A positive signal is that after debt surpassed $40 trillion, the Treasury unusually expanded buybacks, showing an intention to intervene in market liquidity, which may stabilize asset prices. On the downside, long-term bond yields are suppressed, possibly reflecting market concerns about debt sustainability rather than real economic improvement. 4) What answers are we waiting for? Waiting for Congress to respond to Trump's proposal, for official disclosure of the scale and frequency of long-term bond buybacks, and for changes in crypto asset trading volume and holdings. Without substantial progress, pre-market volatility may return to neutral. For informational and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.This pattern feels recognizable — a quick rally most mistake for the real move, followed by a hard reversal. My read differs: I doubt price clears 70K. Resistance builds heavily below 68K, right where confidence peaks. The coin rally being hyped seems weaker than claimed — depth isn't there like earlier cycles, even with ETH holding firm alone. I still expect a final dip late summer, but treat it as a trap. My approach: trim exposure past 68K, skip the final stretch, re-enter only after a real b $xNVDA is currently the most awkward one in the market: others are celebrating wildly, but it is the only one in the red. Last night, the Treasury's "QE Lite" ignited all risk assets, with major tech stocks almost all in the green. However, NVDA fell 0.99% again on 8/19, closing at 217.56, marking three consecutive days of decline (8/18 -2.34%, 8/17 -0.07%). While the whole market is rallying, it is not following, indicating that the AI sector is cooling down in the short term, and funds are moving from "certain giants" to more speculative crypto short squeezes and small to mid-cap stocks. But don't consider it a weak stock. NVDA currently has a market cap of 5.32 trillion dollars, a PE ratio of 33, and institutional consensus remains "buy," with an average target price of 314 dollars (+45% compared to the current price). The Q2 earnings report will be released on 8/26, with market expectations for EPS at 2.09 dollars (up from 1.96 three months ago), and estimates have been continuously revised upward. This kind of "pre-earnings dip" is very common; it’s not a lack of confidence but a fear of the good news being priced in, so funds pull back first to wait for a lower entry point. Technically, 217-218 is the short-term battleground line, with support at 216 below and resistance at 222 above. It is currently stuck near the 50-day moving average, waiting for the 8/26 earnings report to provide direction. However, NVDA’s "decline" is usually a buildup for the earnings report.BlackRock says BTC has allocation value, the key point is not that it is bullish but that it has transformed BTC from a "trading asset" into a "portfolio tool" This step is very important. Retail investors buying BTC often buy based on direction, belief, volatility, and sentiment; institutions discussing BTC ask about risk budget, correlation, liquidity, custody, audit, and position limits. Both sides are buying the same asset, but their thinking is completely different I believe BTC's true maturity is not about how much it is shouted about daily but that more and more asset managers start asking: what role does it actually play in the portfolio? Is it a substitute for gold, or a diversification against dollar risk? Is it a long-term allocation or a tactical tool? How large should the position be, and can the volatility be tolerated? This is more fundamental than short-term price breakthroughs When BTC changes from "whether to buy" to "how much to buy," its market structure has already changed #贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 After a 7.1% surge, 44,300 BTC were suddenly transferred to exchanges. BTC achieved its best single-day performance since February, but many short-term holders began selling as the price rose. Analyst Darkfost stated that after BTC price broke through the short-term holder cost line of about $67,100, more than 44,300 BTC in profit were transferred to exchanges, marking the largest short-term profit-taking move this year. Combining related news, the driving forces behind this surge can be analyzed as: - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall immediately - Trump stated at a crypto conference that the U.S. is considering purchasing a large amount of Bitcoin and is again pushing the CLARITY Act. Therefore, this was not without catalysts, but after the positive push on the price, it also released the pent-up selling pressure. Why are we in the liquidation queue this time, and how to respond next! 📉 Macro Trigger: U.S. Treasury "Shock" Shakes Global Liquidity · Repo Scale Doubled: On August 19, it was announced that the single repo scale for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds would be increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. 🏛️ Policy and Capital: Regulatory Benefits and Institutional "Buying Frenzy" Along with the improvement in macro liquidity, policy and capital aspects also resonate: · Regulatory "Combination Punch": The White House held a crypto industry summit, Trump called on Congress to advance the "CLARITY Act"; the SEC proposed a new regulatory framework with a safe harbor mechanism capped at $5 million financing. · Institutional Capital Pre-positioning: Institutions like BlackRock aggressively bought near $60,000. New Fire Group's OTC business volume in July increased 257% month-over-month. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $487 million over two days, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $143 million in a single day. · Sector Capital Return: The AI sector's growth slowed, and some funds flowed back into the crypto market. 💎 Summary This rally is a multidimensional resonance of macro (U.S. Treasury policy), micro (short position structure), policy (regulatory benefits), and capital (institutional inflows). However, it should be noted that the main force behind this rise is short positions being passively closed, not genuine spot buying. Coinbase premium was previously negative, and ETF funds have just turned from outflows to inflows. The Treasury's repo is not quantitative easing (QE) and does not directly create new money. BTC / $USDT (4H) — BTC pushed directly into the $70K area, clearing upper-side liquidity after a sharp vertical move. With a large 4H FVG sitting below, a cooling pullback could be setting up. Trade: SHORT Entry: $69,600–$70,100 TP1: $68,200 TP2: $66,500 TP3: $65,000 SL: $70,600 #StorageValuationSplit #TreasuryUpsBuybacks #FOMC9To3Split #XiaomiQ2Earnings Xiaomi’s latest results highlighted the growing importance of its electric-vehicle business. Second-quarter revenue was approximately RMB99.1 billion, while smartphone revenue was around RMB44.3 billion. Smart EV, AI and other new initiatives generated almost RMB19.9 billion. Continued vehicle deliveries helped offset pressure from smartphone competition, higher component costs and weaker profitability in Xiaomi’s traditional hardware operation. Xiaomi’s advantage is its ability to connect smartphones, home devices and vehicles within one ecosystem. That could reduce customer-acquisition costs and create cross-selling opportunities unavailable to many standalone automakers. However, manufacturing vehicles requires substantial investment, and Xiaomi faces aggressive competition from BYD, Tesla and other Chinese brands. Investors should look beyond delivery growth and monitor vehicle gross margins, factory utilization and research spending. The EV operation is becoming large enough to reshape Xiaomi’s valuation, but it must eventually demonstrate that rapid expansion can produce sustainable profits.8.20# U.S. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchase, 30-year U.S. bonds retreat from highs This post analyzes the gold trend, how to understand the gold trend! First point: Why has gold recently taken off? Two important points: U.S. bonds have fallen into crisis, causing a huge liquidity gap. The specific reason is the rapid collapse triggered by selling euros to rescue the yen. The U.S. Treasury immediately stepped in to stabilize the market, but this can only have a temporary effect. The core problem still exists, and the final outcome still requires the Federal Reserve to open the floodgates! Another reason is the decline of the U.S. dollar, with funds flowing into stable assets like gold and high-risk assets like crypto. This does not mean liquidity has improved; liquidity remains very tight and requires the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity to improve. Currently, gold is bearing part of the load, and major central banks are continuously purchasing gold. So this is the takeoff phase for gold, a long-term positive trend forming. Next, we will see if it can reach the important 5000 mark! A simple share about the gold trend. Friends involved in gold trading are welcome to exchange views if they have different opinions. Understanding the trend is key to understanding the movement. Wishing everyone prosperity 💰Briefly sharing important information 1. There should be significant progress in the Strait of Hormuz this week Progress will immediately benefit the Japanese and South Korean stock markets You can directly call $KORU $SOXL here Crude oil is also the biggest threat to inflation in Japan and South Korea Relative changes in the strait will bring a corresponding opposite effect to the market 2. I will fully accompany everyone for the 10y US Treasury auction at 1:00 on Wednesday This 10y US Treasury auction may be the most important of this quarter It will guide whether the market heads toward a recession 3. Employment data, CPI, and PPI guidance all point to no rate hikes, but last week's decline in consumer data has raised market concerns about a recession. Today's drop is also due to this 4. This decline is unrelated to defensive moves before NVDA earnings; it is more about recession defense causing the drop A typical safe haven 5. Gold remains an important long-term asset 6. Pay attention to the cryptocurrency summit held at the White House on Wednesday, with participants including SEC, CFTC, and crypto company leaders such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple, Gemini, etc. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said tokenization may become a focus of the summit. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Storage stocks—the AI story is over, now it's time for ghost stories SanDisk just finished painting the "long-term growth" picture at its investor day, and the next day it opened down 9%. SK Hynix, Micron, and Western Digital all followed suit, with SanDisk closing down 3.5%, and Western Digital and Seagate falling even more. Translation—investors have lost faith Short-term funds are repeatedly jumping sideways at the top, basically deceiving each other—after a year of telling the "AI server demand explosion" story, have NAND prices risen? Have customer agreements been signed? Has profitability been realized? None of these have been fulfilled. Bank of America is still "providing valuation references for Micron," references for what? How to inflate the PE to 50 times and then cut retail investors? Storage stocks now are like those "ecosystem narrative" coins in crypto—the bigger the story, the riskier the chip structure. SanDisk's high-volume plunge shows smart money has already started to exit. The bottleneck period has arrived, don't catch the falling knife. Wait until NAND prices truly bottom out and inventory is genuinely cleared before considering a bottom-fishing. If you rush in now, you become the "cost of growth" in that long-term growth target. Disclaimer: After storage stocks fall, there might still be an AI 2.0 narrative, but when that time comes, remember to call me—I’ll be hiding in BTC 74000 first #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Last night was really bloody, all the shorts were liquidated and died The bulls are great again $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $OKB really pulled a bit this round. As a long-time OKX user, I do feel a bit embarrassed, but trading isn’t about feelings, you have to accept it. $BTC rose about 10%, ETH directly 20%, OKB went from 99 to 104.5, just over a 5% increase, which really feels like it didn’t eat. The reason is simple: this wave is a short squeeze. There were a lot of short positions stacked on BTC and ETH; when the price pulled up, shorts were liquidated one after another, buying themselves up, so the increase was naturally fierce. OKB doesn’t have that many shorts, so it can’t benefit from the short squeeze, and funds all ran to chase BTC and ETH, leaving the platform token to just circle in the corner. Also, OKB already ran from 97 to 102 a few days ago, so it had an early move. Now at 104.5, it hasn’t actually fallen, it’s just rising slowly—not weak, just not strong. Key levels: Support: 101-102, if it holds on a pullback, you can keep holding; if it breaks below 100, this rebound is basically over. Resistance: 104.5-105.5, only if it breaks above with volume can it catch up with the broader market. I’m personally holding my base position but will watch the OKB/BTC exchange rate. If it keeps underperforming, it means funds don’t recognize the platform token at all, then I’ll reduce some and switch to stronger coins, keeping just a faith position. The market doesn’t care about sentiment; no matter how good OKX is, it doesn’t mean $OKB must rise in the short term. One last thing: don’t force reasons just because you hold OKB. Underperforming is underperforming; accept it and adjust rather than stubbornly holding on.ETH is really going strong this time. In 24 hours, it jumped 18%, surging above $2,250. In contrast, although BTC also hit $70,000, its gains were clearly not as dramatic as ETH's. After such a long silence, Ethereum is finally starting to show some activity. Capital isn't just watching the spectacle. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $517 million in inflows in a single day, and ETH ETFs also attracted $189 million, marking the largest single-day inflows in several months. This is worth noting. Recently, the market was basically dominated by BTC alone, while ETH and other mainstream coins clearly lagged behind. Now, ETH has suddenly surged on high volume, indicating that funds are starting to spread beyond Bitcoin. Moreover, with bears being liquidated continuously these past few days, once the market gains upward momentum, it is easy to attract cautious funds back. There are also catalysts on the policy side. Trump publicly called on Congress to push the Clarity Act forward at the White House, but there are still disputes over the bill, and it's uncertain whether it will actually be implemented in the short term. So what I'm more interested in now is whether ETH can hold this rally. If ETH holds above $2250 and continues to rise, the market's trading logic may no longer be just "BTC alone rising." After such a long silence, is Ethereum really going to catch up this time, or is it just another surge and pullback? How much do you think ETH can see this round?The Fed is arguing 9 to 3 over whether to raise rates, but BTC surged to 70,000: Who does the market really believe? The FOMC minutes show 9 votes to hold steady and 3 votes to raise rates by 25 basis points, with Logan, Harker, and Kashkari dissenting. On the surface, it looks hawkish, but in reality, the division has widened: the majority think current rates are high enough, while a minority worry about inflation recurring. Logically, this should suppress risk assets, but BTC has rallied from around 64,000 to near 70,000. The reason isn’t that the market suddenly believes in rate cuts, but that it’s trading something else: the Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, with the 10-year yield falling from 4.71% to 4.64%, easing liquidity pressure in the short term; meanwhile, short squeeze liquidations further amplified the rise. So the market currently trusts "data and liquidity," not the Fed’s verbal disputes. But this doesn’t mean the risk of rate hikes has disappeared; the September path will still be repriced by inflation and employment. Right now, I’m watching two signals: whether BTC can hold above 70,000, and whether a pullback to 69,000 can be supported. Holding above means the market is willing to continue pricing risk assets with a premium; falling back to 69,000 means this was just a short squeeze, not a trend reversal. Brothers, do you think the market is trading easing ahead of time, or just riding the Fed’s division for a quick pump? $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC The move may have less to do with crypto-specific factors and more to do with liquidity, positioning, and macro conditions. Here’s the breakdown: The U.S. Treasury has increased the size of its bond buybacks, with individual operations rising from around $2B to at least $4B. The focus is on longer-dated 10–30 year Treasuries, meaning the government is buying back some of its longest-term debt. This comes as the 30-year Treasury #BTCBreaks69000 $BTC was still at 62,800 three days ago, and today it reached a high of 70,009 USD. In the past 24 hours, about 1.84 billion USD worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network, with the short-to-long liquidation ratio reaching as high as 8.6:1. This is not an ordinary rebound; it is a short squeeze triggered simultaneously by three external forces. First force: U.S. Treasury "QE-style" repurchase The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, with each operation no less than 4 billion USD, effective September 9. Long-term Treasury yields dropped sharply in response, the dollar weakened, and liquidity release effects are real—although officials deny this is QE, the market is pricing it as QE. Second force: Regulatory clarity expectations Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and other crypto companies, strongly promoting the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act." The Senate Banking Committee chairman stated a procedural vote will be held on September 15. Meanwhile, the SEC is advancing a proposal to exempt token issuances under 5 million USD. Policy barriers for institutional entry are being cleared. Third force: Real money inflows into ETFs Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of 487 million USD over two consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing 144 million USD in a single day, approaching a total of 951 million USD since August. This is not retail behavior; it is Wall Street systematically covering positions. With the Treasury easing, Trump delivering policies, and ETFs buying aggressively, these three positive factors combined have crushed the shorts. But the 70,000 level has never been an easy path historically. Whether to chase or not, weigh it yourself. On September 15, the U.S. Senate will hold a vote. This vote could directly slash the stablecoin yields in your hands. On August 19, the American Bankers Association publicly stated: they support the passage of the CLARITY Act but insist on tightening the stablecoin reward provisions before the September vote. ABA President Rob Nichols said: The bill should prohibit stablecoin reward mechanisms that are "substantially similar" to interest payments. In plain language: the 3.5% reward your platform gives me looks too much like bank interest, so it has to be killed. Why are banks so anxious? Because money is flowing out. The average U.S. bank deposit interest rate is only 0.1%. Meanwhile, Coinbase offers USDC holders a 3.5% reward. That's a 35 times difference. Banks are panicking. They rely on these deposits to issue small business loans, mortgages, and agricultural financing. With stablecoins yielding 3.5% annually, who would still put money in banks? So the ABA is lobbying hard to broaden the definition of "substantially similar" — broad enough to ban any reward that "looks like interest." But there is a more subtle issue behind this. The GENIUS Act passed in 2025 already prohibits stablecoin issuers from directly paying interest or yields to holders. But there is a loophole — the law does not regulate "third-party platforms." So Coinbase exploited this gap: I am not the issuer, just a platform; the 3.5% I give users is called a "platform reward," not "interest." The CLARITY Act aims to seal this loophole completely. Section 404 of the draft clearly states: any regulated entity shall not directly or indirectly pay any form of interest or yield to holders — solely because they hold stablecoins. "Any regulated entity" and "directly or indirectly" — Coinbase cannot escape. Two scenarios, consider them yourself: 🔴 Risk scenario (ABA amendment passes) "Substantially similar" is broadly interpreted Coinbase and other platforms’ USDC 3.5% rewards are cut Impact: all users holding stablecoins on centralized exchanges 🟢 Optimistic scenario (amendment rejected) Retain "activity-based" reward mechanisms (staking, trading, and other real behaviors) USDC yield model continues Coinbase’s $1.35 billion stablecoin revenue in 2025 remains unaffected Key timeline: September 15: Senate procedural vote, needs 60 votes to advance September 18: Cloture vote to end debate Before then: ABA is lobbying hard for the amendment Trump has publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. Coinbase CEO predicts it may get over 60 votes in favor. My strategy: No extreme position adjustments before September 15 — but closely monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s amendment text. If the definition of "substantially similar" is too broad — consider moving some stablecoins to on-chain protocols not subject to U.S. regulation. ⚠️ This is not financial advice, just analysis. Banks say stablecoin rewards "weaken their lending capacity." But the question is — why are you making choices for me? The 3.5% yield is my choice; I don’t need you to "protect" me. $BTC $ETH $SOL Facing $MRVL's drop yesterday, I added quite a bit (mentioned in yesterday's post). Today, news came out that $GOOG has brought $MRVL into the TPU ecosystem's "custom chip + memory/network/storage controller" supply chain. Google has opened a big door for MRVL within the TPU system, outlining a procurement path up to FY2033 with a maximum of $120 billion. At the same time, $NVDA has also opened a door for $MRVL within the NV system. This path is very clear. Memory is a wall that everyone wants to break through, and Marvell has the key ability to break the interconnect wall. This is actually new news. From April to August, combined with what I heard from friends, I have mentioned this many times, and the articles and posts are all there. If you ask the market who is optimistic about MRVL and who is not, many people can speak confidently. But if you ask: What does MRVL do? Which product line is promising? What opportunity are they waiting for? I think many people would be speechless. This is why you need to understand the power of fundamentals. Once you see the fundamentals, just wait for them to slowly materialize. I still remain optimistic. The TPU collaboration is just the first route, and I expect the penetration in this direction to continue increasing. Another area is Scale Up, which I believe is not yet priced in, waiting The favorable policy has landed, but the White House crypto meeting showed no substantial policy progress, missing one of the two major factors driving #Bitcoin's rise. Where to go from here? As mentioned earlier, the two major factors driving #BTC's rise are the macro side and the policy side. One has now landed, but the result was below expectations. There is little policy progress regarding crypto, and the crypto market lacks its own exclusive positive catalyst. On the macro side, the bond market repo benefit brought by Basent is currently hard to determine whether it is a long-term policy benefit or a short-term political suppression of interest rates. Over time, if this benefit cannot be consolidated, its effect will gradually diminish. Going forward, the only support for BTC to continue rising or stabilize at a high level can rely on ETFs and net inflows of mainstream crypto funds. Continued attention is needed to see if net inflows can be sustained. Technically, the short-term resistance is referenced at 69,000, support at 67,400. Once 67,400 is effectively broken, a further pullback should be expected!Short sellers betting against BTC at 70,000 lost $2.74 billion yesterday alone. BTC surged violently to 70,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 8%. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $2.975 billion, with shorts accounting for $2.74 billion, representing over 91% of the liquidations, marking the largest short squeeze in the crypto market in nearly two years. Ethereum shorts were also liquidated by $1.13 billion as ETH violently surged from around 1900 to 2264, an increase of over 18%. On Hype, three accounts collectively liquidated $194 million, with the largest single liquidation at $48.8 million. In just one hour, more than $1 billion in short positions were forcibly closed. Why the sudden pump? Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Robinhood, and other crypto companies at the White House, stating that the government has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve and urged Congress to quickly pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act. The SEC is cooperating by proposing new regulatory drafts for crypto assets. The Treasury doubled the long-term bond repurchase limit to $4 billion. Short sellers got crushed, policies turned favorable, and BTC is now at the doorstep of 70,000. What next? IG's chief technical analyst said this move is mainly driven by short covering. The short squeeze came fast and may go away just as quickly. 70,000 is a historically dense chip area; whether ETF buying can sustain is the key—ETF net inflows in August have nearly reached $951 million, but if funds slow down next week, this rally might just be a short squeeze, not a reversal. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Many people only noticed that the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates, but what truly deserves attention is: the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening. The July FOMC minutes show that although the rate was ultimately held steady, some officials have already leaned towards rate cuts, while others worry about inflation recurring and want to continue tightening. This is an important signal for $BTC. In the short term, the market will continue to trade on rate cut expectations. If inflation continues to decline in the future and the Federal Reserve begins easing, liquidity will improve, and risk assets including Bitcoin and $ETH may continue to benefit. But if inflation heats up again and rate cut expectations are delayed, the market may also face pressure. So what truly affects BTC now is not a single piece of news, but the underlying liquidity cycle. In past bull markets, the biggest driving force was always an improved funding environment. Currently, the market is waiting for a key confirmation: Whether the Federal Reserve has officially entered an easing cycle. If liquidity reopens, the crypto market may see greater opportunities; but before a policy shift, volatility and fluctuations will still exist. Bullish! Everyone is looking for the reasons behind BTC's rise, and there are actually three core factors: First, the pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds is increasing. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond once surged above 5.3%, hitting a multi-year high. As the world starts worrying about how to handle the $40 trillion debt, the market nat assets that are "not easily diluted." Gold and Bitcoin have re-entered the capital spotlight. #FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings Recently discovered a pattern I found that gold rises first, then Bitcoin follows In the future, when you see gold break its previous high, go long on Bitcoin directly You can review this, it's a relatively stable profit-making trend $BTC $XAU How much interest does your bank account's savings deposit give you in a year? 0.01%. JPMorgan Chase's savings account interest rate hasn't changed much in 20 years. But if you open Coinbase and hold USDC, the annualized yield is 3.5%. Kraken and Gemini offer even higher rates, above 3.75%. The same US dollar, placed in different places, yields 350 times more. Banks are panicking. On August 19, Rob Nichols, president of the American Bankers Association, publicly stated support for the CLARITY Act—but with one condition: stablecoin rewards must be banned. Note his wording—he demands banning stablecoin rewards that are "substantially similar" to interest payments. What does "substantially similar" mean? Banks say: your 3.5% yield is no different from interest and must be banned. The crypto industry says: this is a platform reward, not interest, so why ban it? A war over "what counts as interest" is raging on Capitol Hill. Why are banks so afraid? Ronit Ghose, head of future finance at Citigroup, warns: if stablecoins can pay interest, it could trigger a massive bank deposit outflow similar to the rise of money market funds in the 1980s. Bank of America CEO Moynihan puts it more bluntly: without restrictions, up to $6 trillion in deposits could shift away from banks—accounting for 30% to 35% of all U.S. commercial bank deposits. $6.6 trillion. Not billion, trillion. The deposit empire banks built over 200 years could be drained in a few years by a digital dollar product. But the harshest reality is this: While banks cry "deposits are running away," their profits are hitting record highs. FDIC data shows: in Q1 2026, the U.S. banking industry earned $80.5 billion, a record. Bank deposits have net inflows for seven consecutive quarters, nearing $21 trillion in total. Deposits haven't fled, profits are at new highs. So what are banks really afraid of? Competition. They're afraid users will realize: my money doesn't have to stay in banks, and I can earn more elsewhere. Rashan Colbert, policy director at the Crypto Innovation Council, says plainly: "There is currently no evidence that stablecoins are drawing deposits away—this has not been found to be true, and current stablecoin activity does not even suggest this possibility." The most surreal part of this whole situation is here— In July 2025, the GENIUS Act was signed into law, explicitly banning stablecoin issuers (like Circle) from directly paying interest to holders. But the law has a loophole: it only bans issuers, not exchanges. Coinbase does not issue USDC; Circle does. Coinbase simply distributes the interest income generated by USDC reserves to users as "loyalty rewards." The issuer doesn't pay interest, the exchange gives rewards. This is not a loophole, it's an open secret. The OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) proposed rules in February this year to try to close this loophole. The ABA is now pushing the CLARITY Act to tighten this further, aiming to nail the last nail in this loophole's coffin. The banks' target has never been Circle—it’s Coinbase. The CLARITY Act will be voted on in the Senate on September 15 and needs 60 votes to advance. But the chance of the bill passing has dropped from 82% at the start of the year to 10%-20%. Three major controversies remain unresolved—ethical rules, developer protections, and stablecoin rewards. On August 20, Trump even called from the White House urging Congress to pass a "fair version." A trillion-dollar lobbying war is heating up in the countdown to September 15. Honestly— Banks have spent decades pushing savings rates close to zero, earning over $360 billion annually from payment and deposit businesses. Now someone is offering users 3.5%, and banks are panicking. They call this "systemic risk." I call it "competition." On September 15, the Senate will vote on one thing: Whether the 3.5% yield on USDC you hold on Coinbase can stay. Banks say: this is interest and must be banned. The crypto industry says: this is a reward, why ban it? $BTC $ETH $SOL #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 $HYPE is surging with increased volume as it approaches the historical high, with bullish forces directly confronting the dense resistance above $73. The market shows a series of rapid short-term bullish candles, accompanied by short position liquidations, and selling pressure near $73 is beginning to cluster. CFTC's push for regulatory expectations allowing decentralized protocols to legally enter the US market, combined with fee buyback and burn driven by rising hype, is driving leveraged funds on the exchange to rapidly push up the rates. The buying pressure from policy sentiment resonates with deflationary supply, fueling this pulse, but the high fee rate also means that the cost of pushing prices up is rapidly accumulating. If buying volume can break through $73 and confirm above it, the consolidation range will be completely broken, opening space to extend toward new historical highs. If bulls are suppressed at the $73 resistance zone and buying momentum fades, the elevated leverage fee rate may trigger profit-taking, and the price will seek support at previous platform levels. Once there is a rapid volume-driven breakdown from the high level and funding rates sharply cool, it means the current bullish structure fails, and the market will enter a wide-range consolidation. The key variables to watch in the coming days are the breakthrough confirmation at the critical $73 resistance and the convergence pace of bullish position funding rates. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 This round of BTC's rise appears on the surface as a single candlestick explosion, but in reality, the underlying capital logic is changing. Many people only focus on the price, yet overlook several core factors driving the market shift: First, global concerns about the creditworthiness of the US dollar are intensifying. The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds remains high, prompting the market to reassess the expanding debt scale and the future monetary environment. When investors start worrying about the long-term dilution of fiat purchasing power, capital naturally seeks assets with scarcity attributes. Gold is one option, while BTC, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, is gradually being reallocated by some funds as a "digital scarce asset." Second, the crypto industry is moving from a "regulatory crackdown period" into a "rule establishment period." In recent years, the biggest market resistance was not a lack of capital but excessive uncertainty. Institutions want to enter but worry about compliance; traditional finance wants to position itself but lacks clear rules. Now regulators are discussing clearer digital asset frameworks, which is not only a short-term positive for the market but also paves the way for large future capital inflows. Third, Wall Street is transforming crypto from a speculative product into part of asset allocation. In this related conference, participation from traditional financial institutions, trading platforms, and crypto companies has noticeably increased, sending a clear signal: Crypto is no longer just a retail game but is gradually entering the mainstream financial system. Past rallies relied on sentiment; future growth may depend more on changes in capital structure. Of course, after BTC's short-term surge, profit-taking pressure cannot be ignored; the market will not rise unilaterally forever. What truly determines the subsequent space is whether capital inflows can continue and whether macro liquidity can keep improving. The biggest change in this market cycle is not just the price increase but that the market is re-pricing BTC. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #OKX预言家第二季：电竞西甲赛果揭晓，英超法甲接棒 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Bullish! Everyone is looking for the reasons behind BTC's rise, and there are actually three core factors: First, the pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds is increasing. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond once surged above 5.3%, hitting a multi-year high. As the world starts worrying about how to handle the $40 trillion debt, the market naturally begins to seek assets that are "not easily diluted." Gold and Bitcoin have re-entered the capital spotlight. Second, the U.S. regulatory attitude has changed. The SEC recently proposed a regulatory framework for crypto assets, no longer just cracking down but starting to design compliance pathways for Crypto. This is the biggest change for institutional funds. Third, Wall Street is really entering the market. At last night's White House Crypto summit, SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Kraken, Chainlink, Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, and DTCC all appeared. #FederalReserve July FOMC minutes 9-3, officials still divided on rate hikes #BTC breaks $69,000, how far can this rally go? #U.S. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchase, 30-year Treasury yields retreat from highs In the morning, I reminded everyone to buy near 69000 on the pullback. The afternoon market as expected pushed up to around 70000, providing a space of 1000 points. Shipan led the students to layout simultaneously, 68968→69869, securing 901 points and pocketing thirty-one thousand in profit. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 📈 Why has Bitcoin recently rebounded? BTC's rise is the result of several factors: • 🇺🇸 The U.S. Treasury increased bond buybacks, which supported liquidity and improved risk appetite. • 💥 Massive Short position liquidations caused a Short Squeeze, pushing the price higher. • 🏦 Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETF funds supported institutional demand. • 📊 Breaking key resistance levels boosted momentum. The question now: Will the rise continue or will we see a correction? 👀 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoMarket #BTCBreaks69000 #BitcoinNews #Trading #CryptoTrading #ETF #FOMC #Bullish #OKX The contrast is sharper than the headline: OpenAI’s reported Q2 revenue rose about 18% to $6.7B, yet its operating loss widened to roughly $12.3B. Over the same period, Anthropic reportedly reached around $11.6B in revenue, more than doubling from Q1, with a small adjusted operating profit. My read is that a potential OpenAI listing in 2027 would be judged less on growth alone and more on whether compute-heavy expansion can produce credible operating leverage. For now, the comparison is informative but incomplete, since neither company’s figures come from audited public filings. #OpenAIQ2LossWidens The Fed's Hidden Battle Behind the 9-to-3 Vote: Why Are the Three Dissenting Votes for a Rate Hike More Deadly Than Expectations of a Rate Cut? The recently released July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve have poured a bucket of cold water on financial markets still reveling in rate cut euphoria. On the surface, the 9-to-3 vote to keep rates unchanged suggests that the dovish camp still firmly holds the mainstream narrative. But if you carefully review nearly thirty years of Fed decisions, you’ll find a highly dangerous anomaly: at the tail end of a high-rate cycle, three Fed officials openly cast dissenting votes supporting a 25 basis point rate hike. Such an internal, public policy split is extremely rare since Powell took the helm of the Fed. Many find it puzzling—recent CPI has been falling consecutively, and nonfarm payrolls and wage growth are steadily slowing—so why do these three hawkish officials insist on pushing for a rate hike despite the widespread disapproval? The answer lies in the Fed’s deep-seated fear of "second-round inflation stickiness." What these officials worry about is not the current surface-level prices but the core services inflation excluding housing (Supercore Inflation). In today’s U.S. labor market, although initial jobless claims have risen, structural labor shortages continue to support core service costs. If the Fed prematurely compromises and sends strong signals of rate cuts, it risks triggering a premature, retaliatory easing of financial conditions, directly replaying the second-round inflation nightmare from before Volcker’s era in the 1970s. Policy disagreements often inflict more subtle and prolonged damage on capital markets, especially crypto assets, than direct rate hikes. First, it completely shatters the market’s unilateral fantasy of a smooth decline in risk-free rates by September. With the three dissenting votes for hikes constraining Powell, it will be difficult for him to decisively pivot at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, passively extending the "Higher for Longer" window. Second, policy uncertainty directly drives up the MOVE Index (interest rate volatility). This means that whether it’s the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, without fresh liquidity inflows, neither can sustain healthy one-way trends and will instead be repeatedly pulled back and forth by every subtle macroeconomic data fluctuation. Facing ongoing Fed official dissent, my own trading rhythm is very clear: firmly reject the black-and-white rate cut bull market fantasy. On macro signals, I don’t try to guess which month the Fed will cut rates; instead, I focus on two hard indicators: one, whether the long-end Treasury term premium continues to widen; two, whether the supercore inflation month-over-month shows consecutive stagnation. As long as internal Fed divisions remain unresolved, any sharp market rally is likely a liquidity-driven trap in a zero-sum game. Managing spot positions carefully and refusing to blindly leverage to bet on macro turning points, preserving principal in a choppy market, is far more valuable than frequently predicting Fed vote outcomes. After the public 9-to-3 rate hike dissent, do you think the Fed might suddenly hike rates in September? In this volatile macro environment, is your current position defensive and watchful, or are you actively accumulating on dips? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Where exactly did OKB lose this round? It took two weeks to pull from 85 to 107. Then the official team released a “positive news,” and OKB immediately dropped 6 points. It’s the usual buy on expectations, sell on facts, I admit. But some things must be said: Zakk said “combo moves in mid-August,” and today is already Wednesday. What have we got? One Boost expansion, a 1.25 million DOS reward pool, a few hundred thousand dollars—what’s that supposed to do? What about the promised RWA incentives, TVL subsidies, new assets, new applications? Not a single one in sight. It’s not that nothing was done, but every time it’s half a beat behind the market, and the intensity is far less than expected. By the time the benefits actually land, it’ll be too late. Boss Xu said “real assets, long-term value,” which is true, but crypto is a battlefield of sentiment. If you’re slow, hot money goes to Solana, to Base—who’s going to wait for you? I haven’t sold yet, but I’ve set a bottom line for myself: if OKB can’t hold 102 by this Friday, or if the official team hasn’t taken substantial action, I’ll cut losses and exit, no more running alongside. It’s not that I don’t believe in X Layer’s RWA path, but retail investors’ patience and money are limited. OKX, you can be steady, but don’t let “steady” turn into “dragging.” Drag it out too long, and people will be gone. $OKB Four dimensions, a clear overview 1. Price action: violent surge, hitting strong resistance Bitcoin briefly touched $70,000 before pulling back, currently fluctuating around $69,500. $70,000 is a key short-term battleground—breaking through targets $73,000-$75,000, while rejection requires a pullback for confirmation. 2. Technicals: severe overbought, needs correction The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have both surged above 85 into extreme overbought territory. After a sharp rise, the market needs to digest profits through a pullback. The first support lies between $68,200-$67,200; if broken, it will retest the previous consolidation range. 3. Market structure: leverage-driven, not a spot bull run · Short positions closed in a single day reached $1.44 billion, with a short-to-long close ratio of about 8.6:1 · Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not truly returned · Glassnode on-chain model indicates BTC is still in the “capitulation phase”; until the realized profit-loss ratio surpasses 2, any rebound is just a local rally 4. Macro drivers: policy catalysts, not fundamental improvements The direct trigger is the US Treasury’s announcement to double long-term bond repurchase size, combined with Trump meeting crypto industry executives to push regulatory legislation. This is a pulse from improved external liquidity expectations, not a fundamental change within the Bitcoin ecosystem. $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC The reason is not cryptocurrency. Listen, I'll write it in order: 1. The U.S. Treasury doubled the size of bond repurchases. Each operation increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. 2. The target is 10-30 year bonds. The government is repurchasing its longest-term debt. 3. The reason is as follows: the 30-year yield reached a 19-year h. When government debt yields are this high, no one wants to take risks.#FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings $CORE market alternates rebounds, most coins recover and rise, but only CORE remains stagnant, repeatedly missing out on market gains. Holders watch opportunities slip away round after round, each rebound quickly fizzles out, hopes continuously dashed, and a sense of powerlessness accumulates. No amount of complaints or venting can change the cold reality of the market. A massive amount of trapped positions loom overhead; even slight rallies trigger heavy selling pressure, firmly capping upward space. Various narratives are released in turn, but few truly materialize or bring incremental capital; the ecosystem lacks a self-sustaining foundation, and long-term weak oscillation has become the norm. Every time new news emerges, it sparks hopes for a turnaround, but the outcome remains a rise followed by a fall. Expectations are continuously overdrawn, and obsession deepens. The market will not compromise for emotions; the trend is determined by capital flows and tangible results. Without substantial fundamental improvement, no amount of complaints can break the current deadlock. The market's upward windows are missed repeatedly; can mere obsession really wait for a market reversal? ⚠️This is only a personal market review and discussion, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please make decisions rationally. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ # Currently, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, with the 10-year yield staying elevated, and short-term bonds also offering attractive returns. Institutions are not lacking funds but hold more comfortable alternatives: they can obtain certain risk-free returns without enduring the intense volatility of the crypto market. This is BTC's current dilemma. The long-term narrative still holds: non-sovereign asset, fixed supply, digital gold, hedge against fiscal deficits. But in the short term, a practical question arises: why must capital enter the market now? Short-term bond yields are attractive, and U.S. dollar liquidity shows no obvious easing, so institutions naturally remain cautious and won’t rush to aggressively invest. However, this does not mean BTC’s long-term logic is impaired. High interest rates suppress coin prices in the short term but will amplify U.S. fiscal debt pressure in the long run. The cost of servicing debt keeps rising, and the market will gradually question the sustainability of high rates. BTC fears a high interest rate environment but can benefit from the debt risks exposed by high rates. The current awkward situation is the result of a tug-of-war between short-term trading logic and long-term allocation logic. In comparison, $ETH’s situation is more challenging. Staking yields were a major highlight for ETH, but high U.S. Treasury yields create a direct comparison. If U.S. Treasuries can reliably provide returns, why would institutions take on ETH’s price volatility risk? Therefore, ETH’s repeated consolidation around 1900 is not entirely an ecological issue but a matter of yield comparison disadvantage. Only when real interest rates fall will on-chain staking yields regain attractiveness. So when observing BTC and ETH, don’t just focus on whether the price can break through. BTC is waiting for signals of easing in U.S. Treasuries, with the macro hedge narrative being repriced by the market; ETH is waiting for an improved yield comparison environment, with on-chain finance regaining capital favor. Without a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, it will be difficult for these two major coins to experience a very smooth major rally. $BTC 霍尔木兹海峡一紧张，比特币就卡在六万四上不去，这盘面比想象中更怕事。你有没有发现，现在买盘明明在接，但价格就是不肯给方向，这种"有人托底却没人抬轿"的状态，其实最磨人。今天白宫那个加密峰会，市场嘴上说不在意，手上却很诚实，波动率低得像是大家都在等散会。我自己的感受是，现在不是缺消息，是缺一个能让所有人同时下注的理由。宏观叙事压过一切噪音，这句话翻译过来就是，行情得看美联储脸色，而不是看K线。先拆一下当前结构： - BTC在64K附近反复试探，下方买盘确实厚，但上方抛压也不轻，这个位置多空都在赌对方先松手。 - ETH守在1.9K，相对BTC更弱一点，但也没有崩的迹象，更像是跟风盘在等BTC先选方向。 - 霍尔木兹的冲突溢价，其实已经被部分计价，真正没被算进去的是，如果局势突然缓和，美元和美债收益率怎么走，那才是影响风险资产定价的变量。市场现在实际在交易什么？我认为是"衰退预期"和"降息预期"之间的拉锯。如果地缘摩擦降温，同时收益率回落，那BTC和ETH很可能借势往上试探，毕竟压抑太久的风险偏好需要出口。但反过来想，如果衰退阴影加重，资金第一反应是撤出风险资产，而不是进币圈避险，20/08/2026 | Crypto & Macro Market Analysis Bitcoin has just returned to the $70,000 mark for the first time since the beginning of June, up nearly 9% in 24 hours. Looking at the chart, this looks like a mere breakout. But if you put macro and policy facts together, the story is much more complicated: the US increased bond purchases → yields fell → financial conditions eased → the dollar weakened → risk assets recovered. At the same time, Washington continues to signal a push for a regulatory framework for crypto. But on the opposite side The SEC released a new regulatory proposal this week specifically targeting registration exemptions for cryptocurrency investment contracts. Two paths: First, a one-time exemption allowing issuance up to $5 million within four years. Second, allowing issuance up to $75 million every 12 months. Both require issuers to provide principle-based narrative disclosures to investors. The second path has a higher threshold, requiring financial statements and ongoing reporting. In short: the SEC is no longer blanket-declaring "all token issuances are illegal," but instead is providing a compliance pathway. You can issue tokens, but you must disclose, be transparent, and follow the rules. // 0xSammy mentioned this timing is just right for $UMA. I looked into the logic: Umia is working on capital formation and governance tech stacks native to tokens. Simply put, they help projects compliantly issue tokens, raise funds, and manage governance. They have already submitted Blockworks B1 transparency disclosures. If the SEC’s exemption rules really come into effect, infrastructure like Umia that "helps projects navigate compliant issuance processes" will see direct demand. Previously, without a compliance pathway, everyone operated in a gray area. Now with clear rules, projects willing to go legit will need tools and services to help them meet disclosure requirements. Several factors are aligning: regulatory openings + infrastructure already being built + tokens rebounding noticeably today. Whether it’s worth following is up to you to judge THE ERA OF THE US DOLLAR ENDING? US bond yields hit multi-year highs amid market pressure. Treasury Sec. Bessent announced at least doubling buybacks of 10-30yr Treasurie The scale is very small. Doubling the buybacks to about 4 billion dollars per operation is tiny next to a 30 trillion dollar Treasury market and ongoing large deficits. It can create a short-term boost in demand but does not remove enough supply to keep yields lower for long.#FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings Government bond yields have made a V-shaped reversal; the market has already absorbed the Ministry of Finance's intervention. The volume of maturing long-term bonds is too large, and the repurchase absorption capacity is limited. If yields break 6, could there be a triple hit on stocks, bonds, and currency?[BTC Watch] History Rhyming? Looking at Current Opportunities from the "Nvidia Script" 🔄 Reviewing the market in August 2024, the core logic is actually very simple: macro overkill + strong fundamentals = golden pit. 📉 The script back then: On August 5, VIX exploded, Nikkei circuit breaker triggered, seemingly a crash, but actually a liquidity crisis caused by yen carry trade unwinding. Nvidia's fundamentals were intact, then quickly recovered and hit new highs. 📈 Current signals: 1. Technical replication: The current market also shows volume confirmation after a sharp drop, similar to the "technical bottoming" back then. 2. Fundamental support: TSMC's 1.6nm process verification completed, AI hardware iteration accelerating, tech giants' fundamentals remain solid. 3. Capital logic: As long as the company operations are fine, sharp drops caused by macro are often opportunities for main players to accumulate. 💡 Conclusion: Don't fall before dawn. For BTC and core tech assets, as long as the upward logic (such as AI demand, rate cut expectations) remains unchanged, sharp drops caused by macro are "overkill". Instead of panicking, focus on key support levels and wait for the "reversal confirmation" signal. Quality assets will eventually restore value.🚀 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC $ETH Let me break down what happened with the Fed last night for you The July FOMC minutes were released last night, and the most explosive piece of information is: 9 members agreed to keep rates unchanged, while 3 members opposed on the spot, demanding an immediate 25 basis point hike. This ratio looks okay, but such a level of internal dissent hasn't been seen in the Fed's history for a long time. In simple terms, the market had been assuming "rate hikes are over, now just waiting for cuts," but this suddenly exposed that the Fed itself hasn't reached a consensus. 1. First, the voting results: from 12:0 to 9:3, this alone says a lot Last meeting was unanimous to hold steady, but this time three regional Fed presidents openly called for a rate hike. Not just quietly voicing opinions, but formally voting against. This means over one-fifth of the voting members believe: rates are still not tight enough, inflation isn't under control. The two sides roughly stand like this: · Moderates (9 people): Inflation is coming down, keep rates as they are, wait for more data, don't wreck the economy. · Hawks (3 people): Inflation is still sticky, service prices and wages aren't falling, if we don't hike now, it will be more troublesome later. 2. Why such a fierce debate? Two core reasons: First, the economy is surprisingly resilient. Employment data keeps beating expectations, consumption isn't really weak. High rates should have slowed the economy, but the actual effect is weaker than expected. Hawks think this means rates aren't high enough yet. Second, inflation is falling too slowly. Core PCE and service sector inflation are stuck, not hitting targets. Hawks worry that if we don't crush it now, inflation will rebound later, requiring harsher measures with bigger costs. The minutes also include a very important statement: a majority of members agree "if inflation doesn't come down, further hikes are possible." This directly shatters the market consensus that "rate hikes are completely over." 3. What does this mean for financial markets? Dollar and U.S. Treasuries: Previously, the market expected aggressive rate cuts, now realizing even hikes aren't off the table, Treasury yields will rebound short-term, and the dollar will strengthen accordingly. U.S. stocks: The core logic behind recent gains was "rate cuts are coming soon," now that expectation is weakened, high-priced assets will face pressure, and volatility will increase. Crypto: Short-term sentiment will be suppressed since crypto is sensitive to rate expectations, making a big rally difficult. But medium to long term, the Fed only said "maybe one more hike," not restarting a major tightening cycle. The overall monetary environment remains moderate, so the bottoming and recovery trend won't be broken, just slower pace and bigger volatility. 4. What’s next? The Fed now has a clear internal game: · If the economy weakens and inflation keeps falling, rates stay put, waiting for a rate cut window; · If the economy stays strong and inflation remains stuck, hawks' voices will grow louder, and another hike is possible. So the market focus will shift from "when will rate cuts happen" to "is another hike still needed." For crypto, the next phase will be data-driven, with a bullish bias amid volatility and structural differentiation. Major coins have capital support at the bottom, high levels will see repeated shakeouts, while elastic and ecosystem coins continue rotation and catch-up gains. The overall bull structure remains intact, but don't expect daily surges; the pace will be slower. In summary The Fed's internal divisions are now out in the open, showing the market's earlier bet on "unilateral easing" was overly optimistic. The high-rate environment will last longer than most expect #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH Today, I'll just highlight a few points from the Daily Report and share them directly. US stocks finally ended a three-day losing streak. The S&P 500 rose 0.21%, the Dow rose 0.22%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.16%. There is a significant variable behind this rebound: the U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the liquidity repo cap for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds, with a maximum of $4 billion per transaction. After the news broke, U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, and the US dollar index fell from its highest level since May. I think this is even more worth watching than how much US stocks have risen. In recent days, long-term US Treasury yields have been climbing steadily, putting significant pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Now, the Ministry of Finance is directly increasing long-term bond buybacks, effectively providing liquidity to the market first. The 30-year yield once fell by 10 basis points intraday, temporarily easing pressure on stocks and bonds. But the Middle East route has not ceased. The US and Iran remain deadlocked, with crude oil rising for the fourth consecutive day, hitting a three-week high, and US crude oil once surging nearly 3%. Gold also remained strong, with spot gold climbing back above $4,500 and rising over 4% during the session. So now it's quite interesting: US stocks rebounded due to liquidity expectations, but safe-haven and geopolitical assets like gold and crude oil are also rising, and the market hasn't truly entered full Risk On. The biggest activity today is actually in cryptocurrency. BTC immediately surged back above $69,000 after three months, now near $69,716, up nearly 8% in 24 hours, and at one point touched 70,000 during trading. ETH is even stronger, rising over 18% in 24 hours to near $2,266; SOL rose BTC liquidated $1.1 billion in shorts in one day, and after surging past 70,000, the most dangerous are actually those who just chased longs Last night it was hovering around 64,000, many were waiting for it to drop back to 62,000, but BTC surged straight up to around 70,000. Intraday statistics show that about $1.1 billion in shorts were liquidated across the network. Simply put, a large part of this rally was not active buying, but shorts forced to stop loss and cover, pushing the price up step by step. On the macro side, the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, and the 10-year yield fell from 4.71% to 4.64%, with the market initially trading on eased liquidity pressure. But this is not QE, nor does it mean that incremental funds have fully entered the market. The easiest to get caught up now are those who chase longs after seeing a big bullish candle. But once shorts are cleared, the short squeeze fuel decreases; those who didn’t buy earlier start chasing, which might mean buying at the hottest emotional point. I’m only watching two confirmations: whether BTC can hold above 70,000, and whether the pullback to 69,000 can be supported. Holding above 70,000 opens room to target 71,000–72,000; falling below 69,000 makes last night look more like a short squeeze impulse. Brothers, don’t get triggered by the words “$1.1 billion liquidated” and go all in. Shorts dying doesn’t mean longs are necessarily safe. Are you daring to chase now, or waiting for a pullback? $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 The July FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve ended with a 9 to 3 vote to keep interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, but three officials advocated for a 25 basis point hike. This division signals that consensus on U.S. monetary policy is loosening. On one side, with cooling CPI, weakening employment and consumption, continuing to raise rates could put greater pressure on the economy; on the other side, inflation risks from energy, tariffs, and AI capital expenditures make some officials reluctant to ease up. Looking back at the late stage of the 2018 rate hike cycle, internal Fed positions fluctuated, causing sharp revaluations in the dollar, U.S. bonds, and global risk assets. Similar pressures are emerging again now. As long as U.S. rates remain high, funding costs will continue to transmit to real estate, emerging markets, and highly leveraged companies. More notably, the minutes for the first time included AI infrastructure financing, overvaluation, and U.S. Treasury volatility as financial stability risks. The AI boom is shifting from a technology race to a capital race. When large-scale construction depends on debt and long-term financing, interest rates become the key factor determining whether valuations can hold. The probability of a pause in rate hikes in September is high, but what global markets truly face is that high rates may persist longer than expected.

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