Orbit Post Sitemap
This is clearly evident in past cycles. Major bullish movements in $BTC have primarily occurred against the backdrop of a massive influx of money into the system: QE, fiscal stimulus, growth in M2, and increased lending.This round of $ETH rebound has a hidden trap underneath!
Why do I say that?
Because the price has risen, but there's no activity on-chain — in the past week, both transaction count and active addresses have dropped, which is typical of an ETF-driven market: what's being bought is ETH in stock accounts, not ETH used on-chain! Is the rise hollow? Judge for yourself!
Here's something: last year at this time, ETH staking rate was 28%, now it's 34.7%, with Staked ETH hitting a new high of 42.4M tokens. The more locked up, the less circulating; this slow variable is ten times more important than daily volatility. Stablecoins increased by +$4.1 billion in two weeks, which is real money.
Derivatives have been shaken out: 24h liquidations at $97.3 million, with longs contributing $75.8 million. ETF inflows have continued for nine consecutive sessions totaling $1.42 billion.
So how to play it?
Resistance at 2,500, support at 2,300 (key) and 2,146. The fundamentals are driven by three engines: ETF + staking + stablecoins, with short-term profit-taking and overbought pullbacks as two headwinds. Above 2,300, the bullish pattern remains unchanged
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 If a bull market is a game of "survival," then most people are actually playing "who's out first...... 🚨 Have you ever thought that what really makes you lose money isn't the market, but your courage inflats when the market is too good? BTC has been steady around 80,000 these days, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, and in August, cumulative inflows exceeded $3 billion—this isn't retail investor FOMO, but institutions investing real money. SOL remains the strongest beta harvester among altcoins, and funds have indeed started to spill out of BTC, flowing into established coins like ETH, SOL, and even ZEC. On the surface, everything seems smooth, right? But it's precisely this "smoothness" that is the most dangerous. The faster the price rises, the faster greed grows than your account balance. You start convincing yourself that "this time is different," wanting full leverage, chasing new coins, seizing every wave of hot trends—then a single 5% drawdown can take away several months' worth of profits. This isn't to scare you; it's the most common liquidation scenario in derivatives structures: when the funding rate for perpetual contracts keeps rising and open interest piles up in a one-sided direction, the market only needs a single bearish candlestick to trigger a chain of bullish stampedes. My current strategy is simple: only focus on BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and the core assets, allocate positions according to risk level, and never heavily bet on any one. If it goes up, I have a position; If it falls, I can still sleep. This market doesn't reward the most aggressive; it rewards those who survive until the very end.Many people ask which coins have opportunities today. To be blunt, there is currently no market where you can just buy casually and make money. It's extreme differentiation now; the current market is extremely polarized, and there is no chance to make money by mindlessly buying. On one side, mainstream coins are under pressure from macro headwinds, while on the other side, hot Meme coins are rotating wildly.
Specifically, it can be divided into two parts:
· 📉 Mainstream coins and the broader environment under pressure: $BTC fell below 80,000, $ETH fell below 2,450 USD, mainly because the Fed Chair's hawkish remarks raised expectations of rate hikes, and tightening funds directly suppressed risk assets. In the past 24 hours, about $394 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for 75%, and those chasing the rally suffered heavy losses.
· 📈 Speculative funds cluster in Meme coins: Although overall weak, Meme coins on chains like Robinhood Chain and Solana have hit all-time highs against the trend. For example, PONS rose over 29% in 24 hours, and Lobster on BSC surged more than 87%. This indicates that existing funds have not left the market but have moved to play high-volatility short-term games.
This kind of "mainstream weak, Meme crazy" differentiation means that now it's a matter of judging the hotspots and speed of execution, not just vision. If you want to bet on a short-term rebound, focus on the rotation rhythm of Meme coins; if you want stability, wait until mainstream coins have fully digested the macro headwinds before acting. #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The price of Bitcoin at $80,000 is very interesting from a human nature perspective.
Let's talk about three types of people: BTC is now around $80,000, just broke through $80,000 two days ago for the first time in 15 weeks, up about 25% in the last 10 days, with a weekly increase once reaching 23%. After hitting $81,000, it pulled back to $78,000. It is still 36% away from the previous high of $126,000. The psychology at this level is exactly the most conflicted because $80,000 is not just a price, it is a psychological dividing line for three groups.
First group: Those who sold at a low or are out of the market (representative: Jiang Zhuoer)
Their fear is turning into greed. When it dropped to over $60,000, they didn’t dare to buy, saying "miners and exchanges will still be crushed"; now that it has risen 25%, their fear has changed direction—from "fear of falling" to "fear of missing out." This is the most typical psychological reversal at a threshold: the same person feels high risk when the price is 25% lower, but feels safe when the price is 25% higher because "the trend is confirmed." Every order chasing the price is essentially driven by fear, just dressed in greed.
Second group: Those who bought above $100,000 and have been stuck until now (representative: retail investors)
$80,000 means less loss for them. Their fear is that after finally recovering a bit, they don’t want to ride another roller coaster, so there is heavy selling pressure to break even above $80,000, which is why it pulled back after hitting $81,000. Their greed is different: holding on stubbornly, betting that since it has rebounded, it can return to the previous high. The greed of trapped holders is never about making money, but about refusing to admit mistakes.
Third group: Those who accumulated chips at a low price (representative: Bitcoin hoarders)
Floating profits of 20-30%, greed says this is the start of a new round, hold on! Fear says the bear market Bitcoin surge plus altcoin rally is a signal to escape the rebound and take profits;
From a human nature perspective, I believe there will be no big drop here. After some consolidation, it will definitely continue to surge; it’s impossible to fall for everyone to bottom fish.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
What exactly did Waugh say last night? Is a September rate hike certain?
Pharaoh directly said he didn’t call for a rate hike but planted plenty of hawkish markers. The 16-page speech boiled down to three sentences: First, inflation remains the number one enemy; over half of the items in the PCE basket have risen more than 3%, and recent data shows no substantial improvement in core inflation. Second, the economy is strong, credit spreads are at historic lows, and "it's hard to describe current financial conditions as restrictive." Third, completely scrap forward guidance; the market shouldn’t keep staring at the Fed looking for the next move.
The market reacted more honestly than his words. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% straight to 50%-60%, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points, gold plunged over $100, and Bitcoin was hammered down from 80,000 to 77,812.
Deutsche Bank added fuel to the fire, expecting 25 basis points hikes in both September and December. CME shows the probability of cumulative hikes of 50 basis points or more by December has surged to 51%. Former Fed Vice Chair Brainard put it bluntly: "This itself is a form of forward guidance, sounding like a search for a rationale to hike."
Pharaoh’s takeaway: Waugh didn’t call for a rate hike, but the hawkish markers are fully planted. Whether September hikes or not depends on August CPI data! $BTC $ETH $SOL #Waugh emphasizes inflation risk, September rate hike expectations heat up The Fed may cut rates because the economy is weakening. At the same time, quantitative tightening (QT) may continue, banks may reduce lending, M2 may stagnate, and investors may flee from risk.
In this scenario: interest rates ↓, liquidity ↓ → $BTC falls.
Conversely, $BTC can rise amid high inflation and high interest rates if liquidity in the system increases.AI capital expenditure is shifting from high-valuation chip leaders to storage infrastructure and vertical software. High interest rates and tightening US dollar liquidity are forcing the market to reassess asset realization efficiency and cash flow security.
The US stock AI earnings season shows clear sector rotation. Nvidia confirms strong demand for computing power, but its high valuation limits further premium space; Changxin Technology has turned profitable, and Hynix and Micron have full HBM orders, indicating that memory bandwidth and capacity are becoming the new infrastructure bottlenecks.
The driving variables are ranked as follows: enterprise-level AI software cash flow realization speed, storage chip capacity tightness, and macro interest rate pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. When US Treasury yields and the US dollar index fluctuate at high levels, gold and crypto assets remain highly sensitive to liquidity spillover from equity markets, with capital tending to flow from pure concept ends to software leaders with private domain data barriers.
Scenario One: The storage supply-demand gap continues to widen, combined with AI incremental revenue from software companies like Salesforce and CrowdStrike exceeding expectations. If US stock funds smoothly rotate from high-level chips to storage and application ends, improved risk appetite will stabilize the US stock market, thereby providing a relatively stable external macro environment for crypto assets through liquidity transmission mechanisms.
Scenario Two: The monetization speed on the vertical software side fails to match valuation premiums, or rapid release of storage chip capacity weakens price hike expectations. If the high interest rate environment persists and the US dollar strengthens, tech stocks will face valuation corrections overall, and rising market risk aversion may push funds toward gold, while crypto assets will be pressured by cross-market liquidity contraction.
The shift in pricing power of storage chips and software renewal rates are core to verifying whether rotation can continue. If US tech stock profit growth cannot keep pace with capital expenditure growth, the evolution of Federal Reserve interest rate policy will amplify price volatility of high-valuation assets.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on changes in trading volume of US storage leaders and vertical software stocks, as well as the extent of synchronized pullbacks in gold and crypto assets when the US dollar index breaks through key resistance levels.
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强Predicting the upcoming trend:
Cryptocurrency still hasn't truly broken the 4-year cycle. According to the bear market cycle, the bottom should be around mid-October. So this current rise, I firmly believe, is a rebound from the drop in May-June, not a reversal. I also opened a long position at 61,000, exited at 68,000, and then opened a short position.
I am still holding, despite some losses, I remain confident in my judgment. Following Wash's negative remarks on August 28, the price has dropped from 81,478 to 77,520. I think it will continue to fluctuate for a while or trend downward. The real big drop will happen after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 15, along with the cryptocurrency bill decision, which is likely to be negative news.
Only then will a new round of decline truly begin, probably breaking new lows by mid-October. I can't provide exact figures on how far it will fall, but I boldly predict this: the 2021 bull market peak was over 69,000, the 2025 bull market peak is expected to be 126,000, meaning roughly a 1x increase from the previous bull peak. The 2022 bear market bottom was over 15,000, so even if this round's bottom is three times the 2022 bottom, that would be around 45,000. Therefore, I boldly predict this round's bottom will be around 45,000.
I never believed that 57,000 in June was the major bottom. The market always follows the 80/20 rule. Currently, there is a lot of bullish sentiment, but the main players will only create such a market to surprise most retail investors. It's always easier to dump than to pump.Last night at 10 PM, Wash's speech brought a heavy bearish impact to the mainstream market, with both BTC and ETH dropping sharply, and over hundreds of millions of dollars liquidated across the network!!
The speech was hawkish, acknowledging that inflation remains high, clearly indicating that interest rates are still the main policy tool of the US government, far below market expectations. Whales and large holders retreated to cut losses, causing panic selling in the market.
Yesterday, BTC ETF funds saw a net outflow of $201.9 million, showing that many funds chose to hedge and exit before Wash's speech. $BTC
However, ETH ETF funds had a net inflow of $102.1 million yesterday, marking 12 consecutive days of strong inflows. $ETH shows clear accumulation, with market confidence noticeably higher than BTC. $ETH
After Wash released hawkish signals last night, the market has basically digested the panic sentiment. Although expectations for a September rate hike have increased, the long-term bullish sentiment in the market remains unchanged.
ETH did not break below 2400, indicating strong buying interest at the lower levels. Despite a sharp drop, many institutions and whales are still actively bottom-fishing ETH.
Fuxing remains bullish on BTC and ETH. Without the liquidity brought by US stock market openings over the weekend, the market will likely consolidate sideways. Future rises will depend on market sentiment and whether new funds enter.
Continuing to position in mainstream market trends and strong altcoins over the weekend. Those interested are welcome to discuss on the homepage. $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $DOGE This bullish trend hasn't broken, but the Federal Reserve's recent tone is its biggest variable.
The Fed is overall hawkish; since the new chair Wash took office, they haven't eased up, keeping interest rates stuck at 3.5%-3.75%, with some internal discussions about raising rates. However, the August meeting minutes left a door open—the official judgment is that inflation will decline in the second half of the year, with gasoline prices dropping and core inflation slowing. This means rate cuts are not off the table, just postponed, and Citibank has already moved the first rate cut expectation to October. For the market, this is the "bad news fully priced in is good news" script: hawkish expectations are maxed out, and as long as inflation data shows some leniency, rate cut trades can reignite at any time.
Back to $DOGE itself, it dropped over 7 points on the 7th, but looking at 30 days, it’s still up 20%, indicating this pullback is more like a normal retracement after a rally, not a trend reversal. The move from 0.07 to 0.10 was a solid volume-driven advance; now it’s pulling back to around 0.085 with shrinking volume and sideways movement, a typical "resting" pattern. Bulls should watch the 0.082 previous low support—if it holds and the Fed’s tone turns dovish, liquidity expectations improve, this highly elastic asset often leads the rebound. Conversely, if September data surprises on the downside and rate hike talk resurfaces, then it’s time to retreat and not fight the central bank. The bullish strategy remains: buy the dip, don’t chase highs, and keep some position flexibility. $DOGE 通缩刚通过，巨鲸就连夜抢了32万枚$SOL 今天链上数据有点意思。两个巨鲸地址在过去10小时内，从币安和Kraken一共提走了318,718枚SOL，价值约3355万美元。 其中一个地址5p6zPz从币安提了281,446枚SOL（约2968万美元）。另一个地址3WzfuP从Kraken提了37,272枚SOL（约387万美元）。 但这个地址有意思的地方在于——它不是第一次这么干。 链上数据显示，这个钱包正是3月18日沉寂四个月后重新加仓的那个地址。当时浮亏超800万美元，照样继续买。如今同一地址再次加码，仓位均价大概率已被摊薄至100美元下方。 从6月巨鲸向交易所存入30.8万枚SOL认亏离场，到今天从交易所提走31.8万枚SOL——行为从“止损抛售”转向“越跌越买”。 时间点卡得也很巧。 昨天Solana验证者刚以67%支持率通过了SGP-0002“双倍通缩”提案，年通胀缩减率从15%提高到30%。提案刚过，巨鲸就来扫货了。 SOL现价约104美元，从8月中旬74-77美元反弹上来，涨了超过40%。过去24小时跌幅约2.73%，短线在消化获利盘。 主力28万枚从币安流出，是典型的From Computing Power Frenzy to Real Money: As AI Earnings Spread to Storage and Software, Who Will Be the Next Wave of Winners?
This round of AI earnings season has released clear signals of industry rotation.
NVIDIA has confirmed the hunger for computing power, ChangXin Memory Technologies turned profitable, Hynix and Micron have full HBM orders, and Salesforce and CrowdStrike’s AI revenues are also accelerating solidly.
This marks the official shift of AI investment from 1.0 "buy chips and build infrastructure" to 2.0 "who is truly making fiat money using AI."
In the inference and multi-agent collaboration phase, memory bandwidth and capacity have become core bottlenecks, driving storage chips to transform into customized computing power infrastructure. On the application side, companies no longer pay for concepts but for real tools that improve conversion rates and automate security. Software leaders with private domain data barriers are accelerating incremental gains.
Chip valuations are already high; future valuation re-ratings are more likely to occur in supply-constrained storage infrastructure and vertical software that can lock in customer cash flow.
Among chips, storage, and application software, which segment do you believe has the strongest commercial monetization potential?
#财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件 #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 The most noteworthy aspect of this transaction is not the "quantum resistance" itself, but that it was achieved without modifying a single line of Bitcoin's consensus code. QSB is not an "upgrade to Bitcoin"; it adds a hash lock to Bitcoin—running parallel to the elliptic curve signature, effectively providing a second layer of security for high-value holdings.
StarkWare researcher Avihu Levy developed the QSB scheme in his spare time and completed the first quantum-resistant transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet. Transaction ID 305a24..., block 964,199, mined by MARA Pool. The sender used "signature grinding" technology, attempting millions of times until the transaction hash itself happened to match a valid signature format, switching security from elliptic curve to hash function. Cost: $150-200, took several hours.
This is not a protocol upgrade. This transaction is non-standard format; ordinary nodes will not relay it and it must be packaged through a miner-exclusive channel. If the public key is already exposed, QSB cannot help. Its significance lies in proving that a certain degree of quantum resistance can be achieved without a soft fork. BIP-360 and BIP-361 are still under discussion, and Google has called for post-quantum transition to be completed by 2029. QSB is costly and slow, so it cannot be popularized for everyday transfers, but it offers large holders an option to "lock holdings first without waiting for protocol changes." $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $BTC $ETH $SOL | THE RALLY IS COOLING — DON’T CONFUSE A PULLBACK WITH A REVERSAL.
After $BTC reached $81.3K, $ETH reclaimed $2.5K, and $SOL approached $110, the market is now absorbing profit-taking and deleveraging.
$BTC is around $77.5K, $ETH near $2.43K, and $SOL around $104. The $78K area for $BTC and $2.4K for $ETH remain critical. Hold these levels#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto Solana's approval of SGP-0002 is less a supply shock than a test of network economics. The vote, backed by about 176M SOL and roughly 67% of voting weight, only narrowly cleared the two-thirds threshold, while implementation still requires development and a mainnet upgrade.
Slowing issuance by about 18.9M SOL over six years may reduce dilution, but the stronger signal will be whether fee revenue can replace lower new-token rewards without weakening validator participation. That trade-off matters more than the headline vote. Not advice, just analysis.
#SolanaInflationVoteCurrently, $BTC's weekly large bullish candle has proven that the bulls are back!
This week, BTC reached a high of 81,500, leaving a long upper shadow on the weekly chart, indicating significant selling pressure above 80,000.
The biggest short-term issue is just one: the rise has been too fast!
The KDJ's J value is close to 99; if it pulls up further at this level, the risk-reward ratio is no longer as comfortable as before. A pullback would be healthier.
Next, I am only watching:
If it can hold steady between 73,500 and 75,000, it would be a strong consolidation;
If it stabilizes between 70,000 and 72,000, that would be a comfortable mid-term entry zone;
If 70,000 is broken, then look down to 65,000–68,000.
Also, ETFs!
Previously, ETFs had continuous large inflows, which was a very important source of spot buying for this rally. Yesterday, net outflows reappeared, indicating institutional divergence.
Combined with the Nasdaq's pullback, rising 2-year US Treasury yields, and a rebounding dollar, it won't be easy for BTC to break the previous high directly.
So I will wait for it to firmly hold above 85,000, while ETFs resume sustained inflows and interest rate expectations cool down; then there will be a chance for 88,000–92,000.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 As the US-Iran war enters its 6th month and the average gasoline price in the US breaks $4, Trump claims that the US has reached a Venezuelan oil agreement, gaining majority control of 17 oil fields in Venezuela with proven reserves exceeding 6.5 billion barrels through cooperation with private enterprises. According to Ajian, this "largest oil deal in world history" might be Trump's winning move to ease domestic inflation pressure.
6.5 billion barrels account for one-fifth of Venezuela's reserves. If implemented, global oil pricing power will completely return to Washington. This is basically an open exchange of resources for votes in the next election. However, based on my experience passing through Venezuela, the infrastructure is as bad as or worse than Africa's. It may take several years from reaching the agreement to actual oil production, so the short-term impact on oil prices will be limited.
Ordinary traders only need to understand that oil is not just energy but also a political asset in an election year, especially during the current global energy turmoil. Whoever controls proven reserves holds the ultimate authority to interpret inflation. It is worth paying some attention to energy stocks like Chevron $CVX, which are deeply involved in Venezuelan operations.A scene of ice and fire is unfolding.
Is Ethereum following Bitcoin’s lead,
or is the rising dollar directly draining the entire pool?
The answer is obvious.
Bitcoin dropped from 81,000 to 77,000, and Ethereum followed from 2526 down to 2405.
But the problem isn’t here.
The problem is that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to 0.0296, hitting a multi-year low.
Honestly, I stared at this number for a long time, feeling quite uneasy.
When Bitcoin rises 1%, Ethereum only follows by 0.3%, and when Bitcoin falls, Ethereum falls even harder.
This pattern shows that funds do not treat Ethereum as a mainstream asset for allocation; it’s purely used as a leverage tool.
Yesterday, once Powell spoke, the probability of a September rate hike shot up to 60%.
The dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, and all risk assets are under pressure.
Ethereum, being the most sensitive to liquidity, is the first to get hit.
I’m wondering, how deep will this downturn go?
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations have reached $378 million; during non-peak trading hours, liquidity is insufficient, and high-leverage positions collapse at the slightest touch.
Over $100 million was liquidated within one hour.
Ethereum’s open interest remains high; if it continues to drop, the stampede will only get worse.
From 2526 down to 2405, this is not the end, just the prelude.
If 2400 doesn’t hold, the next support is 2300.
Bitcoin can’t carry Ethereum, and the dollar is still rising.
This situation is very unfavorable for the bulls.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 现在的盘面其实比单看涨跌更有意思。 $BTC 从前几天 $81K上方回落到 $77K–78K附近，核心原因已经比较明确：美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 在杰克逊霍尔讲话偏鹰，市场重新提高了对9月加息的预期，风险资产一起承压。 但我现在反而不想把注意力全部放在BTC跌了多少。 真正值得观察的是：BTC回调以后，资金有没有彻底离开加密。 目前市场并没有出现那种“所有资产一起失去流动性”的崩盘结构。BTC跌破$77K后已经出现回收，ETH、SOL等也仍然维持在近期关键区域附近。市场更像是宏观预期突然变差之后的一次重新定价。 所以接下来我会把市场分成三类。 第一类：还能扛住的。 比如 $BTC、$ETH、$SOL。 $ETH现在大约 $2.48K附近，$2,400–2,450是我比较关注的支撑区；如果后面重新站回$2,500，说明这次回调的承接还不错。 $SOL则更值得观察。前面它已经明显跑赢BTC，现在回落到$100附近以后，如果能守住这个区域，反而可能成为下一轮风险偏好恢复以后最先反弹的资产。 第二类：基本面还在，但短线需要等。 $LINK、$AAVE、$UNI、$ONDO。 这些币的Wash turned hawkish last night at Jackson Hole!! The exact words were "We still have a lot of work to do," with inflation remaining the top priority. The probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to 57%.
Meanwhile, $BTC dropped from the overnight high of 81,455 down to 76,877, closing at $77,557, a single-day drop of 3.39%. It is now quoted at 77,650, with 24h volume of $32.54B. The entire market saw 481 million liquidated in 24h, with longs contributing $360 million—leverage once again acted as fuel.
One thing: during the speech last night, I was watching the order book. At the moment 80K broke, over three thousand short contracts were liquidated in five minutes—that was a programmed stop-loss cascade, not people selling. The ETF side also broke: on 8/28, $202 million was withdrawn, ending nine consecutive days of inflows. But the nine-day cumulative base of $2.8 billion remains, with total ETF assets at $100.9B.
If the short-term support at 76K-77K doesn't hold, look to 73,670-75,157. It's the weekend, don't mess around, wait for Monday!
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Walsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote comes as the Fed faces a tough trade-off: inflation remains above 2%, while jobless claims have fallen to 203,000. The key issue isn’t hawkish vs. dovish—it’s whether Walsh can establish a clear, reusable policy framework. Without one, markets may keep repricing Fed-Treasury dynamics, driving volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto Nine straight days of ETF inflows — but there’s more to the story. 👀
Last week, BTC ETFs pulled in $1.92B, while ETH ETFs added another $697M — their strongest run since October 2025.
Sounds bullish, right? 🔥
But here’s the catch: IBIT and ETHA are capturing roughly 70–80% of daily flows.
That means this might not be a broad institutional wave just yet.
BlackRock is doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
#DailyOrbit $CORE Many people misunderstand; the real bottleneck for CORE is not popularity, but liquidity depth
The flood of posts by external bloggers can bring short-term buying pulses, but it’s hard to solve a long-term problem: order book depth.
Recently, after observing multiple rounds of rallies followed by pullbacks, a very obvious phenomenon appears: during slight rises, buy orders come quickly; but once someone places a large sell order, the price shows significant slippage. This indicates that the market’s incremental volume is mostly retail sentiment-driven, and professional market makers’ deep positioning is not yet fully in place.
lstBTC’s liquidity itself is steadily improving, but the secondary market liquidity of the CORE token is a separate matter. Market makers usually enter on a large scale when one of two signals appears: either a major product is officially announced with a clear valuation anchor; or a large institutional asset manager explicitly states they are researching the ecosystem.
Popularity can spike overnight, but liquidity accumulation happens slowly over months and quarters.
So the current market easily experiences pulse-like surges followed by volatile pullbacks. It’s not that the project is weak, but the market depth isn’t thick enough yet. Rather than chasing every rally, a more valuable indicator to track is whether the slippage on large orders is consistently narrowing and whether the order book depth is genuinely improving.
$CORE#OKExPlanetYesterday (August 28, 2026), after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his Jackson Hole debut speech at the global central bank annual meeting, Bitcoin (BTC) and gold indeed experienced a rare simultaneous sharp decline. $BTC once fell to around $77,000, down more than 3.5% in 24 hours, and gold $XAU fell over 2% in the same time, once falling to around $4,500. I believe this decline is not due to gold's failure as a safe-haven aversion or a BTC trend reversal, but rather the market's repricing of interest rates. (1) Why did both assets fall together? Warsh's hawkish remarks quickly raised market expectations for continued Fed tightening. Several data points have already made the logic clear: • BTC: once fell to around $77,000, down over 3.5% in 24 hours
• Gold: At one point fell more than 2%, falling back to around $4,500
• U.S. Treasuries: 2-year yield rises to about 4.35%
• US Dollar: Strengthening in Sync So funds are trading as: rate hike expectations ↑ → US Treasury yields ↑ → USD ↑ → Real interest rates ↑ → BTC/Gold under pressure So the simultaneous decline actually shows that BTC and gold are sharing more and more macro liquidity pricing logic. (2) The market has actually already risen early. This was the key reason for yesterday's sell-off. Before Walsh's speech: BTC: 64,000 → $80,000 Gold: Breaking through $4,600 Both asset classes had already traded some "future liquidity improvements" in advanceWalsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote comes as the Fed faces a tough trade-off: inflation remains above 2%, while jobless claims have fallen to 203,000. The key issue isn’t hawkish vs. dovish—it’s whether Walsh can establish a clear, reusable policy framework. Without one, markets may keep repricing Fed-Treasury dynamics, driving volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin.
For analysis only, not investment advice. #WalshPolicyFramework
#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation 📰 【Cai Wensheng: AI changes productivity, Web3 changes production relations, the most valuable asset in the future is data】
BlockBeats news, on August 29, at the "AI × New Finance—Innovation Global Tour Hong Kong Station and Yangtze River Stars Program Launch" event, angel investor and CAI Holdings chairman Cai Wensheng stated that AI essentially changes productivity, while Web3 is closer to changing production relations. He believes that if there is only efficiency improvement brought by AI without changes in finance and production relations, the new technology cycle still lacks an important link. Cai further judged that humanity is moving from an industrial society and information society into a data society, and the truly most valuable resource in the future will be data. For enterprises, AI should first be used to improve existing business and organizational efficiency, and then create new business models on this basis...
Every time Boss Cai speaks like this, insiders know that the old opportunist’s intuition is sharper than anyone else’s. When he says "data is the most valuable asset in the future," the statement itself is not new; what’s new is that he deliberately chose Hong Kong as the venue to say it—those who understand know it’s aimed at compliant funds and traditional capital.
Hearing this kind of talk often makes it clear that big players’ statements are often not to spread truth but to set the tone for the sector. What’s really worth paying attention to is the direction hidden behind the words—whether narratives like data circulation, privacy computing, and decentralized storage will be revived. Once narratives attract funding, activity will first appear on-chain, followed by various shell concepts and Meme projects emerging.
The most common mistake retail investors make is rushing into the secondary market to take over positions just because a big player says something. Data is indeed valuable, but what’s valuable is not that vapor project, but projects that can truly run business. At this stage, watch more and act less; wait for the liquidity inflection point.
What do you think—is this wave in the data sector pure narrative or is there something real? Which other on-chain projects are secretly working on data-related activities? Add clues in the comments below.👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $XRP After breaking 77,000, everyone is asking: will it continue to fall? My judgment is: there is still short-term downward momentum, but the "bottoms" of the three major mainstream coins are not on the same dimension—their narrative logic is diverging sharply.
---
First, look at the looming threat: the September rate hike
Goldman Sachs says a rate hike in September is "extremely unlikely," but the market clearly isn't buying it. After Wash's speech, the rate hike expectation jumped directly from 35% to 50%-60%. Citadel predicts the Federal Reserve will take a more hawkish stance in 2026-2027. The rising rate hike expectations put direct pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, increasing holding costs, and funds may flow back from risk assets to short-term bonds. But HTX researchers point out a deeper logic: the valuation constraints on crypto assets are shifting from policy rates to long-term yields—meaning even if there is no rate hike in September, as long as long-term yields do not fall, the pressure remains. $SOL $ETH $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Just said the bull market called hackers back to work, and today there was a harsh one: piggybacking on Trump to post a Meme, $GOLD plummeted 96% in 1 minute!
Today, Trump-related account realtrumpcoins suddenly promoted $GOLD, and many thought the "official concept" had arrived.
But a check on-chain showed: the developer holds 600 million tokens, and 15 new wallets took another 224.5 million tokens, totaling 82.45% of the total supply.
Then the promotional tweet was deleted, and $GOLD plummeted 96% in 1 minute.
The account also claimed to have profited $8.2 million from $GOLD — note, this is only their own statement and has not been independently verified.
The most important takeaway from this is:
A celebrity account is real, but that doesn't mean the coin they promote is real.
Next time you see a celebrity suddenly posting a Meme, don't rush in; first check the account, then check the token distribution.
$TRUMP Key focus: Warsh's hawkish signals | BTC ETF ends consecutive inflows | ETH/SOL relative strength | ZEC ETF cash-out | HYPE unlock | ENA buyback reform | AI chip collective differentiation | AVGO earnings report takes over Core analysis: • What Jackson Hole truly changed was not "whether rates will be cut in September," but the market restarting to price interest rate risk. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continued to emphasize inflation targets and policy constraints in Jackson Hole's speech. After the speech, market expectations for a rate hike in September sharply rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield briefly rising rapidly and the 10-year yield returning to around 4.69%. On Friday, U.S. stocks showed clear divergence: the S&P 500 $SPY fell 0.25%, the Nasdaq $QQQ fell 0.52%, NVDA fell 4.6%, and MRVL plunged 10.3%. This shows that the market is no longer trading simply "whether AI demand is good," but whether AI assets can withstand higher discount rates. The same applies to crypto: previous BTC gains were driven by Treasury buybacks, ETF inflows, and short covering, but after the dollar and short-term interest rates rose again, BTC faced a real macro stress test for the first time. • BTC's structural changes deserve close attention: net ETF inflows were interrupted for nine consecutive trading days, BTC fell below $78,000, but ETH, XRP, and SOL were similar$CORE circulation jumped from 60.19% to 63.65% in just one day — a 3.46% increase. 👀 That means a significant amount of previously locked $CORE has entered the market, increasing the amount of tokens that can potentially be sold. The bigger question is: what will the project team do next? From my perspective, the project has repeatedly relied on a few familiar strategies: ① Unlock gradually, not all at once
Wait for $BTC to recover and market participants to expect a rebound, then distribute un$BTC failed to hold the 80,000 integer level this time, dropping directly to around 77,632 USD, down 2.62% in 24 hours. Wash's hawkish speech on Friday night pushed the probability of a September rate hike from 30% directly to 50%, the US dollar index surged to 99.68, and the 10-year bond yield reached 4.722%, both signals indicating tightening.
The two major off-exchange US dollar stablecoins remained steady, with 183 billion Tether plus 74 billion compliant US dollar stablecoins, totaling 257 billion USD, showing ample off-exchange ammunition. However, the BTC ETF channel dropped overnight from +179 million to -127 million, indicating institutions are pulling back first.
The greed index remains at 68, showing sentiment hasn't caught up with the price correction. Having lost the integer level this time, after retesting 80,000, first hold 77,000; if broken, then look for support around 75,000.🚨 Same Fed speech. Different damage. So why is ETH getting hit harder than BTC?
The Fed stayed hawkish, but the market reaction wasn’t equal.
$BTC dropped from $81,500 → $76,845, down about 4.7%.
$ETH fell from $2,566 → $2,403, losing around 6.3%.
That’s a 1.6 percentage-point gap — and it tells us something important about where capital is flowing.
The real story isn’t just the Fed.
It’s capital preference.
#DailyOrbit Application TVL on Robinhood Chain surpasses $1 billion, up by ~100% over the past month.
The leading applications by TVL consist of lending, spot, and perp DEXs$CORE is rarely discussed, but recently there have been three subtle fresh changes in CORE
Recently, most of the attention across the entire network has been focused on external bloggers collectively making calls, but many more subtle changes that have not yet been widely spread are actually more worth noting. Here is a summary of three fresh developments recently, none of which are official announcements, but come from on-chain traces, developer activities, and fragmented signals from overseas communities.
1. A new feature has appeared in lstBTC protocol revenue: the proportion of passively locked funds is rising
Previously, most of the funds in lstBTC were short-term arbitrage funds with high turnover rates. In the last 30 days, on-chain data shows a slight change: some lstBTC is no longer frequently redeemed but has shifted to long-term staking without movement. This is not large holders doing short-term swings but more like institutions testing long-term deposits. The individual amounts are not huge but there is a continuous small net inflow.
However, to clarify the boundary: this is only exploratory capital entering, not large-scale institutional positioning, still at a very small trial stage. Correspondingly, protocol fee income has slightly increased, but the growth rate is not explosive, more of a gentle climb.
Many in the community have directly interpreted this signal as "institutions massively entering," which is an overamplification; it only indicates that some institutions have started product testing.
2. SatPay no longer only focuses on full commercial launch; a mini pilot version has been split off for internal testing
Many are still waiting for the full Bitcoin debit card product to be officially announced and launched at once. However, the latest community developers reveal that the team’s approach has quietly changed.
The fully compliant version of SatPay is still slow in regulatory review in Europe and the US, making short-term launch difficult. The project team has now adjusted the pace to first release a functionally simplified closed beta: only enabling lstBTC self-repaying loans, temporarily cutting the debit card spending feature, to first run the lending module and complete risk control and clearing logic tests.
In other words, debit card spending will be postponed, and the lending function might come out earlier for small-scale internal testing. This is a subtle adjustment in the roadmap, and the official has not publicly announced this change.
3. Community heat shows stratification: top-tier influencers’ heat is waning, niche KOCs are quietly entering
This is the structural change happening in the widely discussed external call wave.
High-frequency calls from top-tier influencers like "All-in Brother" have started to decrease, while many BTC-Fi vertical micro-influencers with tens of thousands or thousands of followers have spontaneously begun deep dives into CORE technical documents, lstBTC mechanisms, and stablecoin concepts.
Unlike top influencers who directly shout target prices, these small and medium influencers rarely promote get-rich-quick slogans and focus more on technical and mechanism education.
An interesting contrast: top influencers bring short-term speculative traffic, while the new small KOCs bring precise users genuinely researching the BTC-Fi sector. But there is also risk: with many new influencers flooding in, it is inevitable that exaggerated interpretations and fabricated undisclosed benefits posts will appear, increasing information noise simultaneously.SOL: The 60 Billion Market Cap Leader Faces a "Smart Money Exodus," Is This Correction Just Beginning?
Solana ecosystem TVL hits a new high, MEME frenzy continues, yet SOL plunged 4.36% within 24 hours, falling below the $104 mark. While the market is still cheering the wealth effect of Pump.fun, smart money has quietly withdrawn.
With a market cap of $60.5 billion, daily volume of $212 million, and a turnover rate of only 0.35%, this liquidity indicator reveals a harsh reality: retail investors are buying at the top, while institutions are selling off in batches at lower levels. The $102-$110 trading range is the ideal price zone for major players to complete distribution.
The "complete silence" in social sentiment is most intriguing: absence from heat rankings, neutral long-short sentiment. The once Twitter-flooding SOL bulls have collectively gone silent—either they've seen the top or are trapped and afraid to speak. This "no cursing, no praising, no action" triple no-state often signals a continuation of the downtrend.
Smart money signals point to the core: net short positions, zero net holdings, zero active traders. Professional funds no longer provide liquidity market-making for SOL, meaning market makers see insufficient risk-reward. Without market makers supporting the price, any negative news could trigger a liquidity gap crash.
Core judgment: SOL is in a dangerous triangle of "strong fundamentals, poor token distribution, and dried-up liquidity." Losing the $100 psychological support will open the downside toward $85.With the same hawkish speech, $BTC dropped 4.7% and $ETH dropped 6.3%. Why is ETH weaker?
The core reason is a shift in capital preference. In this rebound, BTC rose 12.5% from 72458 to 81500, while ETH only rose 7% from 2400 to 2566, meaning ETH underperformed BTC. Institutional funds prioritize BTC when flowing back, marginalizing ETH.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto According to Ajian's verification of the data updated by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on August 28, 78 institutions were approved for a total QDII quota of 6.84 billion USD. The foreign exchange authority's decision to release quotas during a period of market volatility is a strong signal, indicating that regulators are increasing their tolerance for capital outflows. At a time when domestic asset yields are declining, the continuous issuance of QDII quotas is the only compliant channel for private capital to seek global allocation.
For ordinary traders, attention can be paid to QDII funds with tight quotas, such as Southern and Dacheng. After the new quotas are issued, the premiums of these funds will decline, making it a good opportunity to enter global assets; for mature on-exchange traders, this quota also provides potential buying power for U.S. Treasury bonds. Ajian doesn't need to say more about what to do next.Distinguish genuine sector trends and avoid the "solo coin surge" trap
In a bull market, individual tokens often surge independently while other coins in the sector remain inactive. This is driven by isolated capital pumping, not sector rotation, and the effect is short-lived.
A true sector launch involves 2-4 core tokens within the sector rising in volume simultaneously, on-chain data improving in sync, and overall social discussion heating up. If only one coin is skyrocketing while others stay still, it’s a solo coin trend, carrying extremely high risk for chasing the peak.
Better to wait for sector resonance confirmation, earn a bit less, and exchange that for a higher margin of safety.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 Finally liquidated all $NEO spot holdings, invested about 5-6000 USD in total, ultimately took a loss of 975 USD and cut losses to exit. The logic for heavily investing in it at the time was optimism about founder Da's proposal Giveback II distributing 26 million NEO + 40 million GAS, with voting on the official website offering about 15.8% annualized GAS yield, but another founder Zhang opposed it and still controls tens of millions of NEO and GAS private keys. Several months have passed with no progress, the proposal is indefinitely delayed. Currently, the coin price is slowly declining with weak rebounds, trading volume is sparse, and the $GAS held by the top three official addresses is 70 million, showing a total supply of 67 million which is clearly inaccurate. The current $GAS price is still relatively strong, but how to resolve this selling pressure?August 2026 marks the 28th month since Bitcoin's halving. Bitcoin fell from $126,198 last October to $58,552 at the end of June this year, then rebounded to around $80,000. The market has restarted discussing that familiar question: Has the bottom appeared? The lows of the previous three bear markets appeared about 25.5 months, 29.2 months, and 30.3 months after the halving. According to historical templates, we have indeed entered the so-called "bottom window." This template has become the most commonly used framework for understanding Bitcoin: halving roughly every four years, then rising, then peaking, falling, and moving on to the next round. But here lie two different questions. One is why the protocol halves roughly every four years, and the other is why market prices also show a similar four-year rhythm. To discuss whether the four-year cycle still works, we need to look at these two things together. Four years written in the Bitcoin protocol: For every 210,000 blocks produced, the block subsidy is halved: 50, 25, 12.5, 6.25, up to 3.125 BTC today. Calculated at an average of 10 minutes per block: 210,000 × 10 minutes = 1,458.33 days, about 3.995 years. At the end of 2010, developer Mike Hearn asked about the origins of parameters like 21 million coins and 10-minute block production. Satoshi didn't explain why each number was chosen this way, but instead provided a formula to show how they work together:First, this time the selling method is more covert. The team didn't use market price dumping. They put TRUMP into the Solana liquidity pool, so when others buy, it automatically converts to USDC. It doesn't look aggressive but has the same effect. The chips are converted into stablecoins, and the selling pressure is released into the market.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto US short-term Treasury yields rise, mainly driven by the market repricing the possibility of Fed rate hikes.
On Friday, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 4.35%, hitting a one-month high. Fed Chair Wash stated at the Jackson Hole symposium that if inflation does not fall back to the 2% target, the Fed will continue tightening measures, directly pushing up expectations for a rate hike in September. The current market probability expectation rose from 36% before the speech to 57%-60%.
Impact on assets is generally negative for risk assets:
✅ Stronger USD: Rising rate expectations increase the attractiveness of USD assets
❌ US stocks under pressure: High-valuation tech stocks are more sensitive to rate changes
❌ Cryptocurrencies weaken: Liquidity tightening expectations suppress BTC, ETH, and others
❌ Gold under pressure: Rising USD and real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold
❌ Treasury prices fall: Yield increases correspond to bond price declines
A notable feature of this market move is the pronounced rise in short-end yields, indicating the market is mainly trading on the Fed's policy turning hawkish and short-term rate increases, rather than purely trading long-term fiscal risks. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Wash's three sentences, 96,000 people liquidated
BTC dropped from 81,000 to 76,000, losing $4,000 overnight.
First sentence: The 2% inflation target is "firm and unwavering," and the Fed still has work to do until inflation falls to the target.
Second sentence: The current financial environment is difficult to define as "clearly restrictive," meaning it’s not tight enough yet, and there is still room for rate hikes.
Third sentence: The probability of a rate hike in September was 35% before the speech, and it surged directly to 60% after the speech.
What the market fears most is not rate hikes, but sudden changes in expectations.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 470 million, with 96,000 people taken out. Long positions liquidated 360 million, accounting for 76%. BTC long positions liquidated 137 million, ETH long positions liquidated 80 million. The largest single liquidation was on Binance ETHUSDT, $11.66 million.
Bitcoin rose from 64,000 to 81,000 in two weeks, up 26%, then Wash spoke for 15 minutes and it went straight to zero.
Rising rate hike expectations — US Treasury yields rising — risk assets under pressure, this chain has been running for half a year, and BTC always takes the hit.
The rate hike probability jumped from 35% to 60%, the market is repricing. There is support around 77,000, but Wash has made it clear — inflation won’t stop until it’s below 2%. The essence of this adjustment is not "Bitcoin is failing," but a shift in macro logic. The short-term direction depends on ETF fund flows and whale behavior in the coming days. I won’t add positions below 80,000, waiting for sentiment to digest first.
Discuss in the comments, where do you think this wave will fall to? #Stripe consortium reportedly withdraws, PayPal plunges pre-market
Latest data
Market news shows that the consortium led by Stripe has withdrawn from the approximately $53 billion acquisition talks for PayPal, with PayPal falling more than 13% pre-market. Market prices: $BTC 77620, ETH 2428, SOL $103.2; the crypto market did not show significant correlation.
Market consensus
Many traders previously viewed this acquisition as an important signal for traditional payments entering the on-chain arena, expecting it to drive PYUSD and expand crypto payment scenarios; after the deal fell through, the corresponding optimistic expectations directly faded, and sentiment in the fintech sector weakened.
Underlying logic analysis
The termination of the acquisition is more a choice by the consortium after weighing valuation, financing conditions, and regulatory risks, rather than an issue with PayPal's crypto business itself. The narrative bonus disappears, but existing stablecoin and payment layouts will not stop because of this, only lacking a short-term catalyst to accelerate implementation.
Personal view (personally inclined to a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
It's just a theme falling through, not a substantial negative. The big picture still depends on macro liquidity and spot capital flows; a single industry event is unlikely to change the medium- to long-term trend, so maintain your original position rhythm. 【Macro Turning Point | BTC Faces First Major Setback in This Bull Run】
BTC violently rebounded from 65,000 to surge to 81,000. After last Friday's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, this marked the first major macro turning point in this rally.
During the speech, the market seemed stable, but it plunged 3,000 points immediately after, breaking below 77,000, with risk assets across the market collectively under pressure.
Key summary of the core logic this time:
1. The Fed does not acknowledge inflation cooling; favorable summer data is seen as an illusion, inflation remains high.
2. The 2% inflation target will not be compromised; the stance is to continue maintaining a tight policy.
3. Market pricing directly: the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 33% to 60%.
4. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rebounded simultaneously, liquidity expectations completely reversed.
The recent surge was supported by the Treasury suppressing yields and short-term easing benefits;
Now the Fed is tightening pricing again, economic data is strong, and there is absolutely no reason for easing.
✅Conclusion:
81,000 is basically the peak of this rebound phase,
The blind bull cycle is over, and next is a phase of macro pressure and high volatility consolidation.
Go with the trend, the market has changed, and your mindset must change accordingly.
#BTC #MacroMarket #JacksonHoleThe Treasury wants to use TGA to buy back long-term bonds, so the market will naturally be happy in the short term
But the more this sounds like "fixing a water pipe," the more we have to ask why the water keeps leaking. Buybacks can improve liquidity, can suppress long-term yields, and even give traders a breather; but they can't reduce the deficit, nor can they magically create new long-term buyers
This is the most awkward part of the current US Treasury market: the Treasury wants to lower financing costs, while the Fed wants to prove it is still serious about fighting inflation. One wants to ease bond market pressure, the other wants to tighten financial conditions, and the pricing signals get squeezed in the middle
If all problems are ultimately kept alive by technical operations, the market will slowly learn one thing: don't just look at yields, look at who is holding down the yields
#财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解