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NVIDIA's earnings report is so good, why do the other companies seem to be struggling a bit instead?
NVIDIA's earnings report really delivered this time, with the stock price soaring after the report, even putting to rest doubts about whether AI demand can continue. The most interesting part came next: NVIDIA itself is very excited, but several other major AI players nearby are not joining the hype.
Let's start with Meta.
Meta clearly hasn't caught the excitement from NVIDIA's big surge these past couple of days; instead, it's been oscillating at a high level. Logically, since Meta is also a big buyer of AI infrastructure, shouldn't it be happy as NVIDIA proves the demand is real? But now the funds seem to be asking a different question: with so much AI investment, can you actually make money back in the end?
Amazon feels similar.
AWS is one of the most important players in AI capital expenditure, but after NVIDIA's earnings, Amazon didn't show a particularly strong follow-up rise. Even though NVIDIA reconfirmed the booming AI infrastructure market, Amazon still seems a bit subdued. This contrast, I think, is more worth watching than just the price movements.
AMD is even more obvious.
NVIDIA directly told everyone "AI demand is still there, and it's quite strong," yet AMD didn't follow this logic to push higher; instead, it clearly underperformed NVIDIA. Simply put, funds are no longer buying AI chips just because they are AI-related; they are starting to pick who can truly deliver growth. Although AMD has risen quite a bit this year, it clearly hasn't been as strong as NVIDIA recently.
Micron is somewhat similar.
It is still a beneficiary of AI storage demand, and the entire storage cycle remains strong, but after NVIDIA's earnings, Micron didn't continue to enjoy the "AI demand explosion" premium. Instead, AI hardware stocks overall saw another round of pullback on Friday.
So now I actually feel the biggest impact of NVIDIA's earnings report is not just reigniting the AI rally, but recalculating the AI equation.
Previously, everyone thought: AI will keep getting huge investments, so buy chips, servers, storage, data centers.
Now it’s becoming: you can invest, but where does the money ultimately go? Who can turn this capital expenditure into profit?
This is also why I’m increasingly concerned about the data center issue itself.
What AI really needs to worry about might not be demand suddenly disappearing, but infrastructure expansion hitting real-world constraints: power, land, grid connection, construction cycles, and local politics. Especially with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, data centers are slowly becoming more than just a tech company issue.
If this logic continues to develop, I don’t think Monday’s market open will simply replicate "NVIDIA surges → the whole AI sector rises."
More likely, we’ll see continued stratification: companies like NVIDIA that have already proven profitability will continue to attract capital, software and AI applications may still get attention; but those that heavily rely on capital expenditure, have high valuations, and whose profit realization is still far off, may face increasing difficulties.
So on Monday, I won’t be too concerned if the index rises a bit again.
What I want to see more is this: after NVIDIA’s strength, are funds still willing to buy those companies behind it?
If not, that’s quite interesting.
Because this could mean the AI rally isn’t over, but everyone is finally starting to seriously do the math.
...Buying AI used to be like grabbing tickets; now it’s more like checking report cards. $NVDA $MU 🚨 $250K BITCOIN SOUNDS EXCITING — BUT $80K IS STILL THE REAL TEST.
Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin can eventually reach $250,000, and honestly, the logic isn’t hard to understand.
If the US eventually has to inject more liquidity to support the bond market — whether through the TGA balance or continued use of the reverse repo pool — scarce assets like Bitcoin could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
#DailyOrbit Smart Money Moves
The total market turnover in 24 hours is $604.14M, with BTC alone accounting for 26.6 percentage points, indicating that funds are still clustering in large-cap coins for risk aversion.
The top 5 leading gainers have a combined turnover of $21.23M, accounting for 3.5 percentage points of the total market, clearly showing the proportion of smart money in offensive positions.
The top 5 leading losers have a combined turnover of $6.54M, accounting for 1.1 percentage points of the total market, with selling pressure concentrated in a few coins, not a full-scale sell-off.
Top 3 smart money buys: $CARDS with $1.73M turnover +25.63%, $UNI with $11.47M turnover +11.95%, $DOS with $5.13M turnover +11.42%.
Top 3 smart money sells: $ROBO with $1.39M turnover -9.39%, $CHIP with $1.85M turnover -6.21%, $MOVE with $502,895 turnover -5.92%.
Signal: Offensive turnover is more than 1.3 times defensive turnover, smart money's active buying dominates, not retail investors messing around.
Judgment: Funds speak most honestly, follow the direction of turnover, don't imagine the market yourself.
Market data comes from OKX public API and does not constitute any investment advice.
This is the market situation, judge for yourself.BTC experiences intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears at high levels, with increased correlation to gold; personal view
Bitcoin is caught in fierce bullish and bearish battles within a high-level range, with prices repeatedly testing key thresholds and leverage positions remaining elevated, causing noticeable market volatility. A notable change is the significantly enhanced correlation between BTC and gold trends, as both begin to respond synchronously to Federal Reserve policy expectations.
The root cause is that both share the same macro pricing logic, classified as interest-free scarce assets, directly influenced by real U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the dollar. Institutional funds are allocating simultaneously to gold ETFs and BTC spot ETFs, further amplifying market resonance. After the hawkish Jackson Hole speeches, the simultaneous pressure on both asset types is a typical manifestation. However, their attributes should not be conflated: gold leans toward traditional safe-haven status, while BTC is a high-beta asset; during risk-off phases, Bitcoin's pullbacks often exceed those of gold.
Currently, market contradictions are very prominent. Spot ETFs still have buying support, but the rising September rate hike expectations bring sustained pressure and heavy selling overhead. Going forward, close attention should be paid to U.S. inflation and non-farm payroll data. Once rate expectations shift again, gold and BTC will continue to move in sync, though BTC's volatility will be more intense. Blindly chasing gains at high levels is unwise; be wary of concentrated leverage liquidations. $ETH #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $MRVL's earnings report is so strong, yet it dropped 8% on Friday. Are AI chips now not even enough to exceed expectations?
Let's take a look at its earnings report. Marvell's report is actually not bad: Q2 revenue was $2.739 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, with data center business growing directly by 46%. The company also raised its FY2027 revenue forecast to $12 billion and FY2028 to $18 billion.
It recently secured a custom AI chip collaboration with Google, with this deal potentially generating up to $120 billion in cumulative revenue by FY2033. Google even obtained Marvell warrants valued at up to $12.2 billion. Logically, with $GOOGL aggressively building TPUs, Marvell, which helps major companies make ASICs and high-speed interconnects, should be one of the smoothest AI CapEx plays right now.
However, $MRVL still dropped over 8% on Friday. The reason is straightforward: investors think Google's money is coming too slowly. Management said the significant revenue contribution from this big order won't be seen until FY2029. The stock price has nearly tripled this year, and the market now demands not just big future earnings but immediate growth.
So I find this sell-off quite interesting. The fundamentals haven't deteriorated; it's just that expectations have outpaced performance too much. On Monday, I'll mainly watch if $220 can hold. If earnings reports of this caliber can't push the stock higher, I'll start seriously watching $xMRVL and prepare to enter.$SNDK —— I've really been on a roller coaster😅
On 8/28, it closed basically flat at 1484.98 USD, but has retraced nearly 20% from the high of 1878 on 8/17.
The drivers are solid: AI inference is igniting storage demand, Investor Day boldly targets a long-term gross margin of 80%, and they've signed a long-term agreement (NBM) covering about 67% of FY28 shipments. YTD it has surged over 500%.
But the fair value is only 100 USD, so the valuation is sky-high. Short term, it’s oscillating between 1450–1500 at a high level. The long-term logic remains intact, so don’t chase in the short term; wait for the bubble to fully deflate.
$SPCX —— I was short before, now a bit nervous😅
On 8/20, the second round of unlocking 319 million shares caused a single-day plunge of 5.6% to 131.86, evaporating about 103 billion USD. But the stock price didn’t collapse; instead, it stabilized near the 135 IPO price, closing at 137.95 on 8/25.
The reason is institutions preemptively sold, so the unlock day wasn’t disastrous; currently, 35% of the float is shorted.
But don’t celebrate too early, there’s another 319 million shares unlocking on 9/9, followed by continuous unlocks on 9/24, 10/9, 10/24, and finally fully unlocked on 12/8. There’s a tug-of-war near 135; I’ll hold onto my short position for now.
$SKHY —— The real AI storage water seller💪
On 8/28, the ADR closed at 161.04, slightly down 0.35%, but while SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital all fell, it bucked the trend and rose, with the Korean stock steady at 1.63 million KRW.
The core is one word: HBM. It’s the supplier of Nvidia Vera Rubin’s core HBM4, capturing about 60–70% market share; Chairman Choi Tae-won said "next year will see the most severe storage shortage," with demand nearly doubling; Nvidia also signed a long-term cooperation worth over 500 billion USD, and 2026 capacity is already sold out.
The long-term gap extends to 2030, the logic hasn’t changed, pullbacks are opportunities but don’t go all in.When it comes to trading, if you do it well, the exchange pays you; if you do it poorly, you end up paying the exchange every day. Trend is king. Trading psychology and stop-loss dimensions (price stop-loss, time stop-loss, logical stop-loss) — among these, logical stop-loss is the most critical. When the market doesn't align with your logical deductions, you must know how to reverse course. Don't fight against the trend. Trading without a system means whatever you earn will eventually be returned to the market. $SOL In the past month, the A-share market has been trading sideways with shrinking volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3100 points is making people uneasy.
Sector rotation is faster than flipping a page; today banks rally, tomorrow tech gets hammered—reach out and you get hit.
This feeling is exactly the same as when I watch the $ICP market, caught in a dilemma with narrowing volatility.
Experienced stock traders know that shrinking volume and oscillation means the main force is shaking out positions, waiting for you to cut losses before they push up.
In August, I practiced with $ICP using the A-share trick called the "lowest volume order method": buy a bit when it drops to the previous low, sell when it bounces up.
The first two times I made enough for a barbecue, but the third time I got greedy and didn’t sell; the next day it plunged silently, wiping out all profits.
Just like the big A-share market, the bigger the pattern in a choppy market, the harder the hits.
Global funds have been tight for nearly a month; when the US market twitches, both sides follow—don’t believe in independent rallies.
Now I watch the number of rising and falling stocks in A-shares during the day, and glance at the long-short ratio of $ICP at night; if volume shrinks, I stay out of the market.
Wait for a volume breakout before making a move; this lesson was paid for with real money.
Remember, in a choppy market, not losing is winning—staying alive is the most important thing.Here's some solid info for those bullish on AI and storage: $SKHYNIX Hynix's CEO said the global memory shortage will last until the end of 2030, and they're open to continuing to invest heavily in expanding production in the US. Sounds exciting, right? Memory shortages and computing power scarcity are indeed some of the strongest bullish arguments this year. But I have to pour cold water on that: no matter how strong the narrative is, whether you can chase at the current $HYPE faces approximately $1.2 billion in token releases after reaching a historical high of $83.27, with spot liquidity directly confronting a concentrated convergence of internal chips and hedging positions.
Nearly half of the approximately 14.17 million unlocked tokens flow to internal related parties, and the theoretical supply increase poses a direct pricing test for spot market absorption depth.
Market makers have expanded short exposure including multiple assets on the derivatives side to $191 million, while some whales have established multi-million dollar long positions counter-trend during mainstream coin pullbacks.
The chip inflation risk brought by concentrated supply release intertwines with large hedging positions on the derivatives side, and the actual absorption capacity of the spot market will directly determine the flow of these hedging positions.
If internal chips choose staking over secondary selling, and whale buying effectively supports circulating supply, derivative hedging positions will be forced to close and push prices into localized short squeezes.
Once internal shares convert into sustained secondary selling pressure, combined with the trend suppression from large hedging positions, overall market risk appetite will quickly decline.
When open interest contracts on the exchange actively deleverage during spot turnover and prices stabilize, the current supply shock logic will be disproved.
The most important variable to watch in the coming days is the pace of position reduction and changes in the $191 million hedging exposure after spot release completion.
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温In the past month, the A-share market has shrunk like a stagnant pool, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3130 points for almost a month.
Sector rotation is faster than flipping a page; today it's chips, tomorrow it's photovoltaics, chasing in just leads to getting stuck.
This trend reminds me of $ICP, also moving sideways with such small fluctuations it makes people drowsy.
There's an old stock market saying: "Low volume signals low prices," but after this low volume, there's even lower volume, making it impossible to guess.
In August, I tested the waters with $ICP, using the A-share strategy of placing orders at the lower boundary of the box range, buying a bit when it dropped to support.
The first two times I made enough to buy a hotpot meal, but the third time I got greedy and didn't exit, losing all profits and even more.
Just like the big A-shares, greed in a choppy market is fatal; quick exits are the real truth.
In the past month, global funds have been tight, and when the US stock market trembles, both sides follow down.
Now I watch A-share trading volume during the day and glance at $ICP's funding rate at night.
When both sides shrink in volume, I stay out and rest,
waiting for a volume breakout before making a move.
All these lessons come from losses in the stock market,
and the same applies to surviving in the crypto world.
Remember, in a choppy market, not losing is already winning. PONS has been very strong recently
CoinGecko is the top search in the last 3 hours, doubled in 24 hours, nearly 6 times in 7 days, new price highs, market cap reached 200 million USD
It is a token launch platform on Robinhood Chain
Users can create tokens with fixed supply with one click from their own wallets, while deploying a liquidity lock trading pool. The platform does not touch your money.
What I find interesting is the deflationary design
Part of the transaction fees flows back to the protocol, most are used to automatically buy back and burn PONS. So far, nearly 30% of the total supply has been burned.
The platform has launched hundreds of thousands of tokens, and the trading volume is also considerable
This shows real usage
Not numbers inflated by airdrops, but people issuing tokens and trading on it
But I want to say: the deflationary mechanism looks good only if the trading volume can be maintained. Now the hype is at its peak, fees are high, burn rate is fast, price rises, and hype grows even more
This is a positive cycle. The problem is it works just as fast in reverse. When trading volume drops, burn speed slows, and the narrative falls apart
Meme launch platforms always have a very short window. pumpfun was popular, now PONS is taking over. Whether it can retain users depends on if the platform has something left after the hype fades
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, the above is market observation, not investment advice. $PONS $HYPE 【HYPE Unlock Collides with Whale Betting, Altcoin Funds Start Taking Sides】
1️⃣ HYPE previously surged to a historic high of $83.27. On August 29, about 14.17 million HYPE tokens are scheduled to be unlocked, with a nominal value of approximately $1.2 billion, of which about 46.6% is allocated to internal related parties. Unlocking does not mean immediate selling, but the supply pressure is worth monitoring.
2️⃣ New whale moves: One wallet related to BIT/former Matrixport has established about $20 million ETH long positions; another major Hyperliquid holder has re-established 16,000 ETH longs at an average price of about $2,490.
3️⃣ On the other side, the publicly tracked Wintermute-associated wallet has previously expanded its Hyperliquid short exposure to about $191 million, mainly covering ETH, BTC, SOL, HYPE, and XRP; however, market maker positions may be hedges and should not be directly equated with "institutional bearishness."
4️⃣ The next supply bomb is queued: On September 1, about 39.49 million EIGEN tokens will be unlocked, accounting for about 4.49% of the circulating supply, all allocated to investors and early contributors.
Bulls see that whales dare to buy back after the ETH pullback; but bears are truly worried about the combined effect of HYPE/EIGEN supply release and large hedge positions.HSI seems to have accumulated around 900k-1M ($82M) HYPE over the last 10 days
They last reported ~$130M in cash, which is what they likely started using to buy the HYPE, however, I also think they tapped the ATM to generate more gunpowder, since mNAV was over 1x the whole of last week#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto $CRO perpetual, long position, 20x leverage, entered at 0.05415, mark price 0.05772, unrealized profit 131.85%.
Conditions written before opening the position: previous low not broken, pullback with reduced volume, thin chip area actively bought up, 15-minute low point raised. This is just the condition being fulfilled, not a retrospective chart.
This trade is treated as a repair segment, not a reversal. The 4-hour channel hasn't turned yet; the upper range 0.058–0.060 is the lower edge of previous dense trading. Watch the volume there—if volume expands, continue holding; if volume shrinks with a long upper shadow, halve the position; if it falls below 0.0552, the structure is invalidated, no excuses.
Public order splitting, only splitting rules, not the crowd. Your own position size, your own stop loss, your own slippage—no one can replace you.
Wait for the structure to open again in the next round. Until then, let the position run on its own, I’m shutting down the terminal. $BTC $ETH After Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, $BTC dropped from 81,000 to 76,930, wiping out over 200 million long positions in 60 minutes. Then everyone started to panic, shouting "Rate hikes are coming, the bear market has begun."
Brothers, I laid out the script for you last week. The exact words: There will be one more stress test in September, either Warsh or CPI, one of the two. The pit created by the test is the last cheap chip of this round. He tested it half a month early, with a magnitude of 5.6%, right within the "5% to 8%" range I wrote about. Don’t ask me how I knew Warsh would shake things up. The script is in my hands, just watch if I’m right or not.
Now the most critical question: Is this pit a golden opportunity or a trap? I’ll give you the answer directly. Look at a set of data—BTC ETFs have been bought out for nine consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of 202 million. But ETH, XRP, and SOL ETFs combined are still seeing inflows, totaling 145 million. What does this mean? Institutions aren’t withdrawing; they’re reallocating.
The fear and greed index dropped from 82 to 68, cooling off but not panicking. The real golden opportunity comes when fear and greed fall below 50, when retail investors start cutting losses and complaining. It’s 68 now, still some distance, but the direction is right.
The script hasn’t changed. I’ll buy when it hits the 75,000 to 76,000 range; if not, I’ll wait. Time travelers never lack patience.
See you at the close next Monday. Whether 75,000 is reached or not, we’ll count it against the candlesticks then.
#BTC #Warsh #JacksonHole #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 In the past month, the A-share market has been shrinking in volume and shaking without giving people any chance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3130 points for a full three weeks, and the turnover shrinking from 800 billion to 500 billion.
Sector rotation is as fast as a whack-a-mole game; today it's a surge in photovoltaic stocks hitting the daily limit, and tomorrow they can fall back to the starting point. Chasing in is just a recipe for standing guard.
This trend reminds me of watching the $NEAR market, also shrinking in volume and moving sideways, with daily volatility squeezed within 3%, which is frustrating.
Experienced stock market veterans know that during low-volume consolidation periods, frequent trading is the biggest risk, as fees can eat up your small spreads, but the hands just itch.
In August, I practiced with $NEAR, using the A-share tactic of placing orders at the lower boundary of the box, buying a small lot when it dropped to the previous low support, and selling when it bounced to the upper boundary.
The first two times I indeed made some gains, although only three to five points, but better than keeping money in the bank, which felt pretty good.
The third time I got greedy, thinking it could break through, but the next day it opened low and dropped sharply, wiping out all profits and even losing money.
It’s the same pattern as the big A-share market; the bigger the position in a volatile market, the worse the loss. Running fast is the hard truth.
In the past month, global funds have been tight; when the US stock market trembles, both sides follow down. Don’t fantasize about an independent bull market.
Now during the day, I watch the number of rising and falling stocks in A-shares, and at night I glance at $NEAR’s long-short ratio and funding rates. When both sides shrink in volume, I stay out of the market.
Wait for a volume breakout above the range before making a move; never bet on direction prematurely. This lesson was all learned from losses in the stock market.
Remember, in a volatile market, not losing is earning; preserving capital is a hundred times better than staying up late watching K-lines. Don’t let fees drain you dry. $SOL: $565M in 24h — Solana handles volatility better than the market. Perp at $105.24 with current funding at –0.0008%. This means shorts are paying longs today, not the other way around.
But the median green is at 1.28%, and 83% of orders are in profit. Where is the balance? What are those 79% of traders hoping for who consider the $102.95–$105.85 range too narrow? BTC holding above $78,000 while ETH and SOL post similar modest gains looks more like selective risk tolerance than a broad speculative surge. My bias is that macro sensitivity still matters more than crypto headlines, especially with inflation risk and oil leverage back in focus.
The BTC and gold correlation debate is less useful than watching where marginal flows go. Gold versus BTC ETF demand can shift quickly, but Schwab expanding crypto access strengthens the longer-term distribution case. Near term, I would treat this move as constructive, not decisive.
Just my read, not advice.Anthropic IPO new developments, the AI company is finally going to be scrutinized by the public market
The primary market can talk about vision, but the public market will ask annoying questions: How is the revenue quality? Has the inference cost decreased? Are customer renewals reliable? Does model updating always require burning more money?
I think what companies like Anthropic really need to validate when going public is not "Does AI have a future?" That question is no longer controversial. What needs to be validated is: how much of the future will actually be left to model companies, and how much will be taken by cloud providers, chip manufacturers, application layers, and enterprise customers.
Many people get excited about AI unicorn valuations, but I am more interested in the gross margin, cash burn, and customer concentration in the prospectus. Because that is where the most honest statement lies: is this business really a money printing machine, or a super expensive arms race
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 Sun Yuchen topic floods the screen, can the traffic be converted into market movement
Latest data
The hotspot continues to ferment, TRX experiences sharp short-term volume fluctuations. Market prices: $BTC 77480, $ETH 2422, $SOL 102.1, $OKB 109.7, $TRX 0.111. A large batch of meme coins riding the hype have emerged in bulk, with 24-hour volatility often reaching dozens to hundreds of points, and capital competition is very intense.
Market consensus
Some believe the huge traffic can bring exposure to the TRON ecosystem, benefiting $TRX's medium- to long-term consensus; more traders think this is purely event-driven speculation without substantial improvement in the ecosystem or on-chain data, and once the hype fades, funds will quickly withdraw. The hype-driven altcoins carry extremely high risk and are basically short-term speculative bets by hot money.
Underlying logic analysis
Sun Yuchen's most distinctive trait is attention arbitrage; the topic itself can stir emotions in the crypto market. But traffic does not equal value; most of the hype brings short-term speculative trading, not long-term capital allocation. Once public opinion cools down and there is no real on-chain demand to support it, prices can easily fall back. The newly emerged hotspot meme coins have shallow market depth and no fundamentals, with high risks of market manipulation and price spikes.
Personal view (I tend to believe the bull market will gradually return, this is only a personal opinion and not investment advice)
I treat this matter only as an emotional reference and do not chase hype for speculation. Continue to focus on liquidity mainlines for BTC, ETH, SOL, and OKB; $TRX can be observed cautiously, and try to avoid hotspot altcoins, do not let short-term hype drive your operations. #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
After BTC broke through $80,000, it repeatedly fluctuated at a high level. On the surface, the direction is unclear, but essentially the capital attribute is switching—from an extension of risk assets to a hedge tool against fiat currency depreciation. However, the switch is not yet complete, so neither bulls nor bears have a firm grip.
There are two lines of evidence supporting this conclusion:
One is the capital flow line. The US spot ETF continues to see net inflows, indicating incremental funds are still entering to support the bottom; but on-chain data simultaneously shows large long positions and increased short positions coexisting, with profit-taking selling, options hedging increasing, and high-leverage shorts entering simultaneously. Support and resistance are amplified at the same time.
The other is the cross-asset linkage line. Grayscale's latest data shows BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has surged from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to about 33%. This change in numbers is very telling—it no longer rises and falls with tech stocks as before, but increasingly resembles gold, serving as a hedge against purchasing power decline.
If the capital attribute switch is real and trending, then the high-level consolidation is just new funds building positions, and there is room to grow; if this is only a phase of linkage drift, then when macro interest rates strengthen again and leverage is forced to contract, prices will most likely fall back.
In terms of operation, before the switching signal is clear, do not chase longs in the high range or short below key support levels. Wait for capital attributes and cross-asset correlations to give a direction, then follow.
@OKX星球 In the past month, the A-share market has shrunk in volume as if it hasn't fully woken up, hovering around 3130 points with trading volume decreasing day by day.
Sector rotation is faster than flipping pages; yesterday it was chips, today it's liquor—reaching out is just asking to get stuck.
This feeling is exactly like watching the daily chart of $ATOM, the sideways shake makes you want to smash your computer.
There's an old stock market saying: "Don't bottom fish on shrinking volume," but when you see it falling, you just want to scoop up, your hands just can't be controlled.
In August, I tested the waters with $ATOM, using the A-share tactic of placing orders at the lower edge of the box range, buying at support points when it falls, and selling when it bounces up.
The first two times I earned a spicy hot pot meal, but the third time I got greedy and didn't sell, losing all profits and even paying fees.
It's the same as the big A market; the bigger the pattern in a choppy market, the uglier the loss.
In the past month, global funds have been tight, the US stock market trembles and both sides follow suit, don't expect an independent bull run.
Now during the day I watch the number of rising and falling stocks in A-shares, and at night I glance at the position changes of $ATOM.
When both sides shrink in volume, stay out and rest; wait for a volume breakout before reaching out.
These lessons are all hard-earned real money losses from the stock market, which also protect your life in the crypto world.
Remember, in a choppy market, not losing is winning; staying alive is better than anything else. #Iran says the Strait remains closed, crude oil transportation becomes a bargaining chip
The boss has something to say
On August 29, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and individual ships that want to pass must coordinate with and obtain permission from Iran. The temporary route previously discussed with Oman has not yet been activated.
The US continues its blockade and sanctions while advancing oil cooperation with Venezuela, seeking alternative supplies. However, Venezuela's oil fields require infrastructure repairs and long-term capital investment, making it impossible to fill the Hormuz gap in the short term.
The key now is not whether ships can pass, but whether Iran's oil can actually be loaded onto ships, transported out, and settled. Only with sustained actual exports will oil prices and inflationary pressures truly ease.
The impact on macro expectations is still ongoing. As long as oil prices don't collapse, inflation expectations won't come down, the Federal Reserve can't ease, and the ceiling on risk assets remains pressing. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market front, BTC is around 77,000, Ethereum around 2,400. Continuing to hold ZEC short positions. All long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback; no heavy bets before the direction becomes clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.The yen fell below 160, hitting a one-month low. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent directly jumped in, saying that disorderly yen fluctuations could trigger forced position liquidations, disrupting global markets 😅 I say, brother, if it weren't for your Wash's speech causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise, could the yen have fallen this much?
Many friends still don't understand the significance of yen fluctuations. If U.S. Treasury yields reflect the Fed's path, then the yen reflects the global financing market. When these two variables move together, it means the market is recalculating the safety margin of carry trades. However, the current situation of a strong dollar and weak yen is still acceptable and not inherently bearish for $BTC
The real danger is if the yen suddenly appreciates in the opposite direction, forcing carry trade funds to sell everything they can. BTC and tech stocks, which have the best liquidity, could all be reduced together. So if you are a trader who cares about support and resistance levels, the daily volatility of USD/JPY, Japanese bond yields, and risk appetite after the U.S. stock market opens are the three variables you should watch next week #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (August 30)
Shorts experienced a momentum crash after extreme pressure at 44.4x leverage, with a 24-hour V-shaped rebound to 6.49x leverage. Total liquidations surpassed $970,000, with a concentration of only 30.8%. The short squeeze momentum underwent a severe shakeout before a second surge...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $203,400 $4,500 $199,000
4 hours $244,800 $42,400 $202,400
12 hours $299,000 $54,900 $244,100
24 hours $970,600 $129,600 $841,000
In 1 hour, shorts dominated with extreme pressure at 44.4x leverage, amounting to $199,000, showing extreme short control; in 4 hours, short leverage sharply dropped to 4.77x, volume surged to $202,400, indicating a cliff-like decline in short momentum; in 12 hours, shorts further decreased to 4.44x leverage, volume rose to $244,100, with the short advantage continuing to narrow; in 24 hours, shorts rebounded V-shaped to 6.49x leverage, liquidations were $841,000 for shorts versus $129,600 for longs, totaling $970,600. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 30.8%, indicating a moderate to low concentration—shorts completed only a small amount of harvesting within 12 hours, then leverage rebounded from 4.44x to 6.49x in the next 12 hours, forming a V-shaped reversal. After a severe shakeout, the short squeeze momentum surged again, reestablishing comprehensive short dominance over the 24-hour period. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly chase shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 30
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash’s hawkish tone reignites rate hike expectations, Bitcoin and gold strengthen simultaneously under "devaluation trades," and a $13 trillion asset management giant accelerates crypto expansion—three forces reshaping the market landscape within the same time window.
🏛️ Wash Turns Hawkish: September Rate Hike Probability Soars to 60%
On August 28 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. He mentioned "inflation" 25 times, clearly stating that U.S. inflation remains "too high," and if inflation does not fall at a "fast enough pace," "there is still work to be done."
Although Wash emphasized "do not interpret today’s speech as forward guidance," the market quickly digested his hawkish signals—the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the meeting to 60%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points intraday to 4.33%; the U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower. Former Fed Vice Chair Brainard commented that this statement "seems to be looking for a reasonable basis for rate hikes." Wash sent the loudest hawkish signal with a "quiet" speech.
₿ BTC Consolidates at Highs: Gold and Bitcoin ETFs Attract $7 Billion in Five Days
Bitcoin briefly touched $81,000 this week, then retreated to a high consolidation range of $78,000–79,000; international gold prices simultaneously approached $4,700/oz, with a nearly 15% increase this month.
The common source of strength for both assets points to the revaluation of fiat credit triggered by U.S. Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion. On August 18, the U.S. federal government debt total exceeded $40 trillion for the first time in history. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion in inflows—SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) net inflows were about $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) net inflows about $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets."
🏦 Schwab Adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK: $13 Trillion Giant’s Crypto Expansion
On August 27, financial services giant Charles Schwab, with $13 trillion in assets under management, announced plans to add Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) trading services to the Schwab Crypto platform in the coming months. Schwab Crypto launched in May 2026, previously supporting only Bitcoin and Ethereum; this expansion increases the platform’s crypto asset lineup from 2 to 5.
After the announcement, SOL rose nearly 13%, LINK about 6%, and AVAX about 4%. As one of the largest U.S. retail brokers moves from "testing the waters" to "expansion," the boundary between traditional finance and crypto is rapidly dissolving.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Wash paves the way for a September rate hike with "work still to be done," hawkish tone confirmed; Bitcoin and gold strengthen simultaneously under the macro narrative of U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion, with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Schwab expands from BTC/ETH to SOL, AVAX, and LINK, accelerating traditional financial institutions’ crypto layout. $XRP contract shorts rebounded V-shaped from an extreme 44.4x to 6.49x leverage after a crash, with cumulative liquidations of $970,000 and only 30.8% concentration. The short squeeze momentum surged again after a severe shakeout. When central bank tone, macro narratives, and institutional expansion converge in the same time window—the market is repricing September in the clearest way. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Fundamental Research Report $ARB / Arbitrum (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Essentially: Arbitrum ($ARB) overall score 57/100, rating Narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project Overview: Arbitrum (token $ARB), L2/sidechain track. Leading ETH L2, Optimistic Rollup. Competitors include OP, ETH. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, Gas spikes, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): Circulating market cap: Arbitrum $3.00B, OP undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. FDV: Arbitrum $4.20B, OP undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Annual revenue: Arbitrum $2.00M, OP undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Arbitrum undisclosed, OP undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots; missing parts supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. To conclude: fundamentals solid (score 57/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextending expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Focus later on: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Report finished, please savor it.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitMonday Core Risk Warning: The Real Danger Has Never Been $BTC Itself
BTC held the 78,000 level over the weekend and traded sideways without a sustained drop. Many mistakenly think the market has stabilized and are waiting for Monday to choose a direction. But I believe the biggest risk on Monday is not BTC's own technical structure, but the cross-market macro linkage.
On Friday, US tech stocks collectively weakened, led by Nvidia's sharp decline, directly reflecting a cooling in market risk appetite. Coupled with intense gold volatility, funds are starting to waver on rate cut expectations, and enthusiasm for risk asset buying has sharply declined. Now BTC is highly correlated with US tech stocks, classified as a high Beta risk asset, making it difficult to have an independent rally.
Currently, there is no need to rush to predict BTC's rise or fall. Focus on two leading signals: first, whether Nvidia can recover Friday's losses and stabilize tech stock sentiment; second, whether gold can stop falling and stabilize, no longer diverting market funds.
If tech stocks continue to weaken and gold keeps attracting funds, even if BTC trades sideways strongly over the weekend, breaking the 80,000 level will be difficult, and it will likely face pressure and fall back. Conversely, if US stocks stabilize and $XAUT profits flow back, Friday's pullback will be a healthy rotation, and BTC is expected to return above 80,000.
At this stage, market uncertainty is extremely high; do not blindly take long or short positions. On Monday's open, first watch the macro indicators, then set the crypto market rhythm. Trading along with large capital risk appetite is the most stable approach.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 SpaceX disclosed a $2.8 billion gas turbine procurement deal, with AI cluster constraints shifting from chip supply and demand to power delivery cycles. The mismatch between high valuations of computing hardware and the construction cycle of power equipment has begun to repricing the risk premium of tech stocks.
The focus on trading desks is no longer on GPU shortages but on on-site power access and gas turbine equipment delivery rates. SpaceX is deploying 69 gas turbines for the Colossus computing center and transitioning to a 1.2GW permanent power station, triggering a capital rebalancing from purely chip longs to power equipment and data center delivery chains. Interest rate-sensitive positions are starting to guard against the inflation resilience caused by extended power investments.
The primary variable driving the current market is the on-site power availability rate at data centers; the second variable is the delivery and fulfillment of long-cycle equipment such as gas turbines; the third is the quarterly shipment growth rate of $NVDA chips. The $2.8 billion equipment procurement commitment directly anchors the production timeline of the computing cluster over the next three years, limiting the short-term valuation expansion flexibility.
The upside scenario is based on power equipment delivery exceeding expectations. If gas turbine capacity is smoothly released and the 1.2GW power station comes online ahead of schedule, the increased operating rate of the computing cluster will directly fulfill $NVDA’s long-term orders, attracting macro risk appetite funds back to the highly elastic AI mainline; if grid access policies tighten or equipment shipments are delayed, this upside logic immediately fails.
The downside scenario depends on power bottlenecks suppressing the computing production pace. If the construction cycle of 41 permanent gas turbines is extended, the market will reassess the speed at which $ORCL and cloud giants convert capital expenditures into actual revenue. High-valuation positions will face liquidity premium squeezes and profit-taking; if power equipment prices fall and delivery times shorten significantly, downside pressure will be quickly relieved.
The critical point for judgment failure lies in the change of AI computing demand’s dependence on physical power conditions. Once power equipment supply chain constraints cause tech stock risk premiums to rise, overall risk asset positions will experience a passive shift from high-beta chip stocks to targets with on-site power resources.
Key observations for the next 7 days include changes in the gas turbine delivery schedule, progress in AI data center supporting power station approvals, and institutional position adjustments between $NVDA and the infrastructure chain.
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款In the past month, the A-share market has shrunk in volume like a stagnant pool, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3130 points for almost a month.
Sector rotation is ridiculously fast; today it's boosting non-ferrous metals, tomorrow it's crushing consumer stocks—chasing in means standing guard.
This trend is just like watching the $DOT market, also grinding sideways with no strength up or down.
Experienced stock market veterans know that during low-volume consolidation periods, the worst is itchy hands—buying gets stuck, selling flies away.
In August, I practiced with $DOT, using the A-share tactic of placing orders at the lower edge of the box; when it falls to support, I buy a little.
The first two times I made enough to buy a meal, but the third time I got greedy and didn’t exit, and the next day it plunged silently.
It’s the same nature as the big A-share market; the bigger the pattern in a consolidation market, the harder the hits.
Global liquidity has tightened in the past month, and when the US market shivers, both sides tremble.
Now I watch the A-share rise-fall ratio during the day and glance at the $DOT long-short ratio at night.
When both sides shrink in volume, I stay out and rest, waiting for a volume breakout before reaching out.
These lessons are all hard-earned real money losses from the stock market, equally lifesaving in the crypto world.
Remember, in a consolidation market, not losing is earning; staying alive is better than anything.Don't easily give up BTC bottom chips; the storage sector still has price increase expectations in September. Let's start with BTC. If you acquired chips at a low level earlier, the most common mistake now is not misreading the direction but being washed out by short-term fluctuations. Historically, several major market cycles have followed a similar rhythm: rapid rally → high-level consolidation → washing out floating chips → choosing direction again. This time shows similar characteristics. BTC previously surged from around $64,000 to above $81,000, an increase of nearly 30%, then quickly fell back to around $77,000. Recently, market sentiment has clearly cooled, but this does not mean the trend has ended. More notably, on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million in a single day, ending the previous strong continuous inflow. So what we really need to observe now is not a single candlestick but whether the $76,000–$78,000 range can hold and whether ETF funds can flow back later. If there is no clear signal of worsening capital conditions for low-level chips, frequently chasing highs and selling lows may easily lose your cost advantage. --- Now looking at the storage sector, I find the logic even more straightforward: AI server demand + data center expansion + tight DRAM/NAND supply remain the core driving forces. TrendForce previously forecasted that in Q3 2026, traditional DRAM contract prices will rise about 13%–18% quarter-over-quarter, NAND Flash[Monday Alert: Don't Just Focus on BTC, the Real Variables Are on the Periphery]
Over the weekend, BTC held steady at $78,000, seemingly calm. The market's habitual thinking is to wait for the U.S. stock market to open on Monday to set the direction, but this time the real "decisive factor" may not lie within BTC itself.
Friday's market already sent signals: tech stocks (especially Nvidia) took a heavy hit, and gold experienced sharp volatility simultaneously. This suggests that enthusiasm for the "rate cut trade" is cooling off, and risk appetite is undergoing a subtle shift.
The key observation points on Monday are not whether BTC can hold $78,000, but two things:
First, whether Nvidia can recover from Friday's bearish candle. If tech stocks continue to weaken, overall U.S. stock market sentiment will be suppressed. As a high-beta asset, BTC will find it hard to stand alone, and the $80,000 level will become strong resistance.
Second, the flow of gold. If gold prices are quickly bought up after a pullback, it indicates that the safe-haven logic is regaining dominance, which is implicitly bearish for BTC; if gold continues to weaken, caution is needed to see if this is accompanied by tightening liquidity, which is also unfavorable for risk assets.
BTC's sideways movement over the weekend is just the "calm before the storm." If the U.S. stock market stabilizes and gold stops running ahead, BTC could leverage this momentum to return to $80,000, making Friday's drop an efficient turnover; if both major peripheral indicators exert pressure simultaneously, no matter how well BTC holds sideways, it will struggle to withstand selling pressure.
It is still too early to declare bull or bear. At Monday's open, I choose to first watch Nvidia and gold—they are the real "thermometers." BTC's direction is often written in their candlesticks. $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $ZEC LONG 🟢 — OKX SWAP 15m
🎯 20-candle breakout | Confidence 97/100
Entry: 837.74
SL: 824.364
TP1: 854.46 | TP2: 864.491 | TP3: 877.867
RSI14 61.7 | ADX14 18.0 | MACD +0.879 | Vol 2.66x
A 15m close through SL invalidates the setup. Never widen the stop.
Educational analysis only—not financial advice.
#OKXOrbitTopicsIn the past week, 23 blockchain startups raised a total of $1.3 billion. It sounds like a flood everywhere, but breaking it down, $1.1 billion was taken by one company alone—the remaining 22 companies combined only got $200 million. The money is concentrated like never before.
1. Dominating the Industry: Kalshi's $1.1 billion Kalshi is a prediction market exchange regulated by the US CFTC, where users trade "event contracts" based on real-world outcomes such as politics, sports, economics, and weather—betting correctly to cash out $1. A single $1.1 billion round of financing is almost like leaving competitors far behind in the prediction market. The signal is straightforward: real money is heavily invested in this sector once suffocated by regulation. 2. Several noteworthy RQD Clearing cases: $74 million — led by Bain Capital for institutional clearing and custody, targeting tokenized securities. Fasset, $68 million — led by SBI, an Islamic digital bank targeting emerging markets, stablecoin-driven. Capital B, $24.5 million — led by Adam Back, a French-listed Treasury Bill Company in Europe, the first in Europe, stockpiling Sugar Orange on its balance sheet. entropy.io, $14 million — led by Ribbit, a perpetual exchange on Hyperliquid, specializing in private company equity and other alternative assets. 3. An unconcealable signal: YZi Lab#伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码 Brothers, this drama about the Strait has been going on for half a year and is not over yet. Iran says it’s not open; some ships can pass but only with Iran’s approval. Brent is at 89, WTI at 83, more than 20% higher than before the war, and the US is still expanding sanctions.
Will oil prices continue to rise?
In the short term, risk premiums are supporting prices, and the market expects fluctuations between 80-95. As long as the Strait is not fully open, oil prices are unlikely to fall sharply. The medium-term expectation is a decline; as passage gradually resumes, prices may drop to around 78 in Q4. Short term is bullish, medium term looks bearish.
Which assets are most affected?
The transmission chain is simple. Strait closed means oil prices rise, inflation expectations heat up, the Fed dares not cut rates, US Treasury yields rise, and BTC valuations come under pressure. The biggest impact is not the oil price itself but interest rate expectations. Yesterday, with a hawkish speech from Powell, BTC dropped directly from 81,000 to 77,000.
Will I adjust my portfolio?
No. Geopolitics is noise, not a trend. BTC’s rise from 64,000 to 81,000 was driven by the Treasury’s implicit QE and continuous ETF inflows—real money—not by the Strait. Short-term disturbances don’t affect my position; what affects my decisions is when the Fed’s rate cut window opens. Geopolitics can be traded short term, but don’t use it as a long-term logic. Long term depends on when liquidity loosens, not when the Strait opens. $BTC $BZ $CL @OKX星球 The realized market cap pulse is very close to re-entering positive territory, placing the market at a critical juncture.
This is an important indicator for understanding Bitcoin's capital flow over a longer time frame, showing when on-chain capital begins to circulate more consistently again.
The good news is that historically, when this indicator remains positive for at least two weeks, it tends to be a meaningful bull market signal. In other words, it indicates that new demand is entering the market and capital is once again supporting the broader market structure.
But there is an important caveat.
The first recovery attempt is not always enough. At certain points in the past, the realized market cap pulse has acted almost like resistance. When this happens, the market usually follows one of two paths: it either forms a higher low before continuing the recovery, or it experiences another downturn, as happened in 2018.
This is why the coming days will be especially important from an on-chain analysis perspective.
What we need to watch now is whether this recovery is confirmed by sustained capital flow and the indicator remains above zero, or if new selling pressure emerges and pushes it back below this threshold.
If it can stay positive, this will be a very bullish signal for the broader Bitcoin cycle. So far, we have seen almost no large-scale retail activity around the current Bitcoin native low.
I consider this relatively bullish because retail investors have not repeatedly bought in too early and gotten stuck below the price during this downturn as they did in 2022.
Back then, we saw several major surges in spot activity while the price was still being flushed out.
By the time the final bottom formed, retail investors had basically exhausted their energy trying to bottom out early. This left most of their early participation underwater and unwilling to engage in the subsequent rebound.
This time, Bitcoin has managed to stabilize without the same aggressive influx of retail demand.
This also means that one of the largest participant groups in the market remains on the sidelines.
If the chart starts to expand again, this group is very likely to FOMO back in as prices rise, gradually helping to drive the next phase of the market.Injective plans to make native USDC a Cosmos standard stablecoin, migrating the Noble version and various bridged USDC starting in September.
Fewer bridges, less packaging, less fragmentation—unifying cross-chain dollars under the standard directly issued by Circle and flowing through CCTP. For Injective, this is about capturing the foundation of pricing and settlement.
Trading, perpetuals, lending, and payments all need to be based on recognized dollar assets; combined with on-chain order books, low latency, and MultiVM, it looks like a race for the "cross-chain dollar + derivatives settlement layer."
For Cosmos, this is also a correction: the Hub has committed for at least four years, Skip:Go is set as default, and dYdX and others will migrate first. Whoever controls the standard issuance source is more likely to become the default exit for capital routing.
However, this is just a standard migration; the specifics will depend on whether liquidity, institutions, and applications truly stay on this chain long-term after the September rollout.
Stay tuned!
$INJ $BTC BTC intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears at high levels, gold correlation strengthens, personal view
Bitcoin is caught in fierce bull-bear battles in the high price range, with the price repeatedly testing key thresholds, leverage positions remaining high, and market volatility significantly amplified. A notable change is the marked increase in correlation between BTC and gold trends; both have begun to respond synchronously to Federal Reserve policy expectations.
The root cause is that both share the same macro pricing logic, classified as interest-free scarce assets, directly influenced by real US Treasury yields and the strength of the US dollar. Institutional funds are allocating simultaneously to gold ETFs and BTC spot ETFs, further amplifying market resonance. After the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, the simultaneous pressure on both asset types is a typical manifestation. However, their attributes should not be conflated: gold leans toward traditional safe-haven status, while BTC is a high-beta asset; during risk-off phases, Bitcoin’s pullbacks often exceed those of gold.
Currently, market contradictions are very prominent. Spot ETFs still have buying support, but rising expectations of a September rate hike bring sustained pressure and heavy selling resistance above. Going forward, close attention should be paid to US inflation and nonfarm payroll data. Once interest rate expectations shift again, gold and BTC will continue to move in sync, though BTC’s volatility will be more intense. Blindly chasing gains at high levels is unwise; beware of concentrated liquidation risks among leveraged funds. #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 In the past month, the A-shares market has been shrinking in volume and moving sideways, with the Shanghai Composite Index grinding near 3150 points, making people sleepy.
Sector rotation is like a carousel, yesterday it was new energy, today it's military industry; reaching out easily gets you trapped.
This trend reminds me of $MATIC, which also can't go up or down, shaking people’s nerves.
The old stock market saying goes, "lowest volume sees lowest price," but after this low volume, there’s still low volume, making it impossible to guess the bottom.
In August, I tested the waters with $MATIC, using the A-share box bottom order method—buying a bit when it falls to support.
The first two times I made enough to pay for a barbecue, but the third time I got trapped, losing all profits and even more.
Just like big A-shares, greed in a volatile market is fatal; running fast is the truth.
In the past month, global funds have been tight; when the US stock market trembles, both sides follow down.
Now I watch A-shares trading volume during the day and glance at $MATIC’s funding rate at night.
When both sides shrink in volume, I stay out and rest, waiting for a volume breakout before acting.
These lessons all come from losses in the stock market, and applying them in crypto also saves lives.
Remember, in a volatile market, not losing is winning. Late autumn of the year of Bingwu, the central bank's grand meeting, Wash's debut.
Holding firmly to the 2% inflation limit, the economy remains strong, interest rates are not tight, the door to rate hikes is not closed; abandoning forward guidance, only data is followed.
Rumors spread worldwide: bond yields rise, the dollar strengthens; gold falls, U.S. stocks decline.
BTC plunged sharply from 81400 to 76877, ETH, $STX, and meme altcoins saw intensified declines, leveraged longs collapsed, only spot institutional funds flowed in against the trend.
📖 Overcoming one's own weaknesses reveals one's strengths.
The shadow of rate hikes has not dissipated; before $BTC stabilizes above 80K, rebounds are merely fluctuations.
Strict risk control: single loss ≤ 3% of total funds, avoid heavy positions and holding losing trades, do not gamble on bottom fishing. 比特币未来，不会再按照过去熟悉的四年周期运行。 而我很有信心，这个判断最后会被时间验证。 过去十几年，加密货币市场最大的红利之一，就是「周期」。 减半 → 牛市 → 泡沫 → 熊市 → 触底 → 再减半。 甚至连牛熊转折出现的时间，过去几轮的误差都小得惊人。 按照传统四年周期模型推算： 📍 这轮熊市底部应该落在 10 月 6～13 日附近。 距离现在还有大约 38 天。 但问题来了—— 如果比特币已经提前完成熊市底部，甚至新一轮行情已经提前启动呢？ 那代表的就不只是「这次底部提早」。 而是： 🔥 统治加密货币十几年的四年减半周期，正在失效。 其实这件事情早就有迹可循。 上一轮牛市，我们曾经做过几个当时非常逆风的判断： ❌ 不会出现大家期待的「全面山寨季」 ❌ ETH 不会出现市场幻想中的海啸行情 ❌ 牛市后期不一定会像过去一样疯狂加速 当时很多人不相信。 但最后，市场一个一个验证了。 因为今天的比特币，早就不是以前的比特币。 ETF、机构资金、上市公司、华尔街、全球流动性…… 市场结构已经彻底改变，凭什么还要求价格继续完美复制十年前的剧本？ 我认为未来几年，加密货币市场最大的认知差Trump secured 17 oil fields in Venezuela, which is now basically confirmed. This time it's not just about buying a few barrels of oil. Trump pulled a big move: the U.S. and Venezuela have reached an oil cooperation agreement, directly targeting 17 strategic oil fields. And it's not just about signing contracts; the plan is to invest $100 billion+ with the goal of pushing Venezuela's crude oil output above 1.5 million barrels per day. Even more outrageous, Trump said the U.S. will gain majority control over Venezuela's over 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. This has led everyone to ask: Is oil prices going to be suppressed? Theoretically, this is possible. So as soon as the news broke, CL Oil started to decline, dropping to a low of 82.8 and still falling. If the 17 oil fields gradually restore capacity, global crude oil supply will increase, oil prices will fall, inflationary pressure will ease, and expectations of Fed rate cuts ...... Maybe Bing really will be a bit better, but don't overthink it. Venezuela's oil infrastructure has been in turmoil for years. How much oil is underground and how much oil can actually be extracted each day are two completely different things. The reality also has big pitfalls. Many of these oil fields' equipment is rotting, pipelines are aging, and infrastructure is almost abandoned. If oil production really happens, it will take years to renovate and build. Over a hundred billion in capital hasn't even been poured in with real money. Whether it can actually start production is still a huge question mark. The sentiment for Bing is positive, but brothers, don't take it too seriously. Do what needs to be done and make money when neededAs long as the market expects a rate hike, there is no need to actually raise rates.
This statement might be more worth paying attention to than "whether to raise rates or not."
What the market truly trades is never just the final interest rate number announced by the Federal Reserve, but the expectations.
If the market starts pricing in a rate hike in advance, funds will move first:
The US dollar strengthens, Treasury yields rise, risk assets come under pressure, leveraged funds begin to contract, and naturally, the crypto market will find it hard to remain unaffected.
By the time the Fed actually announces a rate hike, it might instead become the "boot dropping."
So what needs the most attention now is not whether the Fed ultimately raises rates, but whether the market's expectations for the future interest rate path continue to heat up.
If expectations keep turning more hawkish, high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH will continue to face pressure.
Conversely, if subsequent data makes the market believe again that "rate hikes are just expectations and will not actually happen," risk assets might see a round of expectation adjustments.
This is the harshest part of the trading market:
Many times, what really crashes the market is not the event itself, but the price everyone sets for it in advance before the event occurs.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 The 2-year US Treasury yield surged, hitting a one-month high, and the US dollar index strengthened.
Non-interest-bearing assets came under pressure, gold plunged nearly 3%, US stocks surged then retreated, and high-valuation tech stocks collectively corrected.
The crypto market also experienced intense volatility:
BTC quickly plunged from 81400, bottoming at 76877.
Highly elastic assets like ETH, $STX, various meme coins, and altcoins fell much more than Bitcoin.
The 24-hour total long liquidations on all contracts approached $480 million, with a large number of leveraged positions being wiped out.
An interesting divergence point:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs still maintain capital inflows.
Spot institutional funds and contract leverage speculators have exhibited completely opposite behaviors.
The key timeline for the upcoming market is now clear:
The upcoming US inflation data will be the switch for short-term market trends.
▪️ Inflation rises again → rate hike expectations increase, risk assets continue to be pressured;
▪️ Inflation significantly falls → tightening expectations cool down, giving the market a chance to recover.
The true final judgment will fall on the early morning of September 17 with the FOMC rate decision and dot plot.
Waller has clearly stated that no preset path will be given anymore; every piece of economic data could trigger a round of intense volatility.
As the saying goes: the process of overcoming weaknesses is the process of highlighting strengths.
Under the shadow of macro uncertainty, the biggest weakness in trading is relying on luck.
Many people see a brief rebound and immediately assume the worst is over, rushing to heavily buy altcoins and low-quality tokens. 1. What exactly did he say (4 core points)
1. The 2% inflation target is non-negotiable
The 2% inflation target is fixed and unchanging. Although some recent inflation data has improved, it is not believed that inflation has shown a substantial downward trend.
Exact quote: If we cannot be sure that inflation is clearly and quickly returning to 2%, the Fed still has work to do (rate hikes remain an option).
2. The U.S. economy is very resilient, and the current interest rate environment is not very tight
Employment and consumption remain strong; current financial conditions have not sufficiently suppressed inflation, leaving room for further rate hikes.
3. Weaken forward guidance, no longer providing the market with a roadmap in advance
No longer hinting at future rate hikes or cuts ahead of time as before. Going forward, policy will fully depend on real-time economic data. The market should stop guessing the Fed and judge the economic fundamentals independently.
4. Brief mention of AI
AI will improve U.S. productivity. The Fed has established a special working group to track AI’s impact on inflation, corporate investment, and asset prices, but AI will not be directly used to formulate monetary policy.
Simple plain-language translation:
Inflation is not yet under control; further rate hikes are possible; no advance notice on hikes—everything depends on upcoming CPI and PCE data.
2. What happened in the markets after the speech
1. Interest rate futures (CME)
The probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% before the speech to nearly 60%, with the market starting to price in a possible 25 basis point hike in September.
2. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar
- The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 10-11 basis points, hitting a one-month high;
- The U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the dollar appreciated.
Rising Treasury yields are negative for non-interest-bearing assets.
3. Gold and U.S. stocks
- Gold plunged nearly 3%;
- U.S. stocks surged then fell to close lower, with high-valuation tech stocks under pressure and pulling back.
4. Crypto market (BTC, STX, etc.)
- BTC plunged quickly from $81,400 to a low of $76,877;
- High-beta coins like STX, Ethereum, and meme coins fell much more than Bitcoin;
- Massive liquidations of long contracts across the network, with nearly $480 million liquidated in 24 hours;
- However, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw inflows, indicating a divergence between institutional spot and leveraged speculative funds.
3. What this means going forward
1. This speech has put the "September rate hike" sword back hanging overhead. Upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data becomes crucial:
- If inflation rebounds and rises again → the probability of a September hike continues to increase, and risk assets remain under pressure;
- If inflation clearly falls → rate hike expectations cool down, and crypto and stock markets will likely recover.
2. The next major event: September 17 at 2 a.m. — FOMC official rate decision and dot plot, which will provide the actual rate outcome.
3. Waller has made it clear: no preset path, everything depends on data, so every U.S. inflation data release will trigger major market volatility.
4. Summary in one sentence
This was a hawkish speech; no rate hike now, but the door to hikes is wide open. The market has started repricing higher rates, and all risk assets (stocks, gold, Bitcoin, STX) have been sold off.In the past month, the A-share market has been shrinking in volume and shaking people’s patience, hovering around 3160 points for almost a month, with daily turnover shrinking.
Sector rotation is like playing whack-a-mole: today it's photovoltaics, tomorrow it's brokers; chasing in just gets you trapped.
This trend reminds me of $ADA, which has also been consolidating sideways for half a month with such narrow volatility that no arbitrage can be made.
Experienced stock traders know that in this kind of market, the worst is itchy hands—buying gets you stuck, selling makes you miss out.
In August, I tried the A-share trick of “buying on low volume at the close, selling on high volume in the morning” on $ADA, placing orders at the lower boundary of the box.
The first two times I made enough to buy two meals, but the third time I got greedy and didn’t exit, and the next day it opened low and crushed me.
Just like the big A-share market, the bigger the pattern in a choppy market, the worse you suffer.
Global liquidity has tightened in the past month; when the US market trembles, both sides follow down—don’t believe in any independent bull market.
Now I watch A-share sentiment during the day and glance at $ADA’s long-short ratio at night; if volume shrinks, I stay out and rest.
Wait for a volume breakout before reaching in; these lessons were all paid for with real money lost in the stock market.
Remember, survival is the priority in a choppy market; don’t let fees drain you dry. 1. What exactly did he say (4 core points)
1. The 2% inflation target is non-negotiable
The 2% inflation target is fixed and unchanging. Although some recent inflation data has improved, it is not believed that inflation has shown a substantial downward trend.
Exact quote: If we cannot be sure that inflation is clearly and quickly returning to 2%, the Fed still has work to do (rate hikes remain an option).
2. The U.S. economy is very resilient, and the current interest rate environment is not very tight
Employment and consumption remain strong; current financial conditions have not sufficiently suppressed inflation, leaving room for further rate hikes.
3. Weaken forward guidance, no longer providing the market with a roadmap in advance
No longer hinting at future rate hikes or cuts ahead of time as before. Going forward, policy will fully depend on real-time economic data. The market should stop guessing the Fed and judge the economic fundamentals independently.
4. Brief mention of AI
AI will improve U.S. productivity. The Fed has established a special working group to track AI’s impact on inflation, corporate investment, and asset prices, but AI will not be directly used to formulate monetary policy.
Simple plain-language translation:
Inflation is not yet under control; further rate hikes are possible; no advance notice on hikes—everything depends on upcoming CPI and PCE data.
2. What happened in the markets after the speech
1. Interest rate futures (CME)
The probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% before the speech to nearly 60%, with the market starting to price in a possible 25 basis point hike in September.
2. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar
- The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 10-11 basis points, hitting a one-month high;
- The U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the dollar appreciated.
Rising Treasury yields are negative for non-interest-bearing assets.
3. Gold and U.S. stocks
- Gold plunged nearly 3%;
- U.S. stocks surged then fell to close lower, with high-valuation tech stocks under pressure and pulling back.
4. Crypto market (BTC, STX, etc.)
- BTC plunged quickly from $81,400 to a low of $76,877;
- High-beta coins like STX, Ethereum, and meme coins fell much more than Bitcoin;
- Massive liquidations of long contracts across the network, with nearly $480 million liquidated in 24 hours;
- However, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw inflows, indicating a divergence between institutional spot and leveraged speculative funds.
3. What this means going forward
1. This speech has put the "September rate hike" sword back hanging overhead. Upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data becomes crucial:
- If inflation rebounds and rises again → the probability of a September hike continues to increase, and risk assets remain under pressure;
- If inflation clearly falls → rate hike expectations cool down, and crypto and stock markets will likely recover.
2. The next major event: September 17 at 2 a.m. — FOMC official rate decision and dot plot, which will provide the actual rate outcome.
3. Waller has made it clear: no preset path, everything depends on data, so every U.S. inflation data release will trigger major market volatility.
4. Summary in one sentence
This was a hawkish speech; no rate hike now, but the door to hikes is wide open. The market has started repricing higher rates, and all risk assets (stocks, gold, Bitcoin, STX) have been sold off.How much is a single sentence from Trump worth? HYPE has provided the answer. On August 19, Trump said at the White House crypto industry conference: "CFTC Chairman Mike Selig is pushing Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. in a fully compliant and legal manner." HYPE immediately surged, rising between 11% and 23% that day. Publicly listed Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rose over 30% intraday. CME Group fell 3.4%, and CBOE fell 6.1%. A decentralized trading platform caused the stock price of the Chicago Exchange Group, which has been over 200 years old, to plunge. This is not storytelling. This is what is happening. But after HYPE jumped from $51 to $83.5, rose 37.5% in 7 days, and jumped 220% this year—how much is the narrative of "compliant entry into the U.S." really worth? Don't rush to shout "$100." Trump named ≠ CFTC approval. Currently, neither the CFTC nor Hyperliquid has announced a formal application, registration structure, or a timeline for U.S. access. To enter the U.S., Hyperliquid must comply with a series of compliance requirements such as KYC verification, customer asset segregation, and market monitoring. Each of these requirements weakens its differentiated advantage over CME and Coinbase. A platform that requires no account opening, no KYC, and can trade directly via wallet—once "recruited,"$BTC in the Hormuz deadlock: Don’t just focus on oil prices, watch how capital chooses
The strait has been closed for seven months, with oil flow down to a quarter of pre-war levels, and Brent steady around $89. But the market has "desensitized"—the same news six months ago could have caused BTC to drop 10%, now the volatility is minimal. Why? The world is learning to operate with less oil, and the market pricing is no longer about the oil price itself, but about the duration of the disruption in the Middle East.
$CL
Will oil prices rise further? Demand has been crushed by high oil prices; the IEA forecasts a daily global oil demand reduction of 1.6 million barrels this year. Even if the strait reopens, the demand shock may last longer than supply recovery. Oil prices will likely linger in the $80-$90 range, making it difficult to break the previous high of $126.
Where is the biggest impact? Not on oil prices, but on inflation and interest rate expectations. July’s PCE inflation remains stuck at 3.7%, energy prices won’t come down, and the Fed can’t ease. This is the real pressure on BTC—the repeated tug-of-war around the $80,000 mark isn’t due to geopolitical panic, but because interest rate expectations suppress risk appetite.
Don’t bet on the direction of oil prices, bet on the certainty of capital flows. After the US expanded sanctions on Iran, capital flowed from tech stocks into gold and BTC, with BTC’s correlation to gold rising above 50%. I will maintain my BTC spot position and wait for the inflation path to become clear.
Don’t just watch oil prices to trade BTC. The real main theme is—if inflation doesn’t come down, interest rates won’t either, and the ceiling for risk assets remains. #伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码