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To conclude first: the deflation narrative of SOL this time has only been half fulfilled.
The vote ended on August 28, with a somewhat unexpected result: the proposal SGP-0002 to accelerate inflation reduction passed narrowly with 68.77% support, doubling the annual inflation cut rate from 15% to 30%, bringing the final inflation rate of 1.5% forward to 2029, resulting in about 18.9 million fewer SOL issued over the next six years. However, the highly anticipated SGP-0003 burn proposal only received 53.9% support, failing to reach the two-thirds threshold. The plan to increase daily burn volume from 650 to over 7,500 SOL was temporarily shelved.
This brings us back to the old issue: the core contradiction of $SOL has never been about speed, but whether network usage can suppress token issuance. Now that the reduction in issuance has been implemented, the burn mechanism has not kept pace. Without fee burning, which is directly linked to demand, supply contraction is limited to "less issuance," failing to form a "more usage, more burn" cycle, so the effect is naturally diminished. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Just as the market was about to shelve the "rate cut script," Walsh brought a cold splash of inflation concerns.
Pharaoh directly states that Walsh emphasizing inflation risks does not necessarily mean a rate hike in September, but as soon as the market starts pricing in rate hikes, risk assets will have to shake first.
Why is the inflation risk back? The core reasons remain energy prices and geopolitical situations. Earlier, the US-Iran conflict disrupted crude oil supply, pushing Brent crude prices up, which gradually transmits higher gasoline, transportation, and production costs to consumers. Oil prices don’t spike CPI overnight, but like a slow-cooked stew, the longer it simmers, the more inflation pressure seeps in.
For Bitcoin, Pharaoh believes the mid-term bullish logic remains intact, but after surging near $80,000, it is already in an overbought high position. Now, with rising rate hike expectations, the market is more likely to first experience volatility and deleveraging rather than blindly shooting upward.
In terms of trading, don’t just short everything at the mention of "rate hikes," nor chase every dip with 100x leverage. Focus on the US Dollar Index, US Treasury yields, and the next inflation data: if data stays hot, Bitcoin is likely to retest support; if data cools down, rate hike expectations may quickly fade.
Pharaoh’s summary: Walsh is responsible for sounding the alarm, the market is responsible for getting weak in the knees first. The $80,000 level is a good long opportunity, but don’t stubbornly chase it; wait for a pullback and stabilization before getting in—it’s sweeter that way! $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 CZ stated on X that over 20.07 million Bitcoins have been mined, with only 4.4% of the supply remaining, and 10%-20% of the stock permanently lost, making it a deflationary asset. The data is accurate, but what is overlooked is: scarcity is a slow variable, while price is a fast variable. Lost coins are stock, not flow, and have long been priced in; what truly determines the margin is new issuance, which after halving is less than 1% annualized, a scale smaller than the daily net flow of spot ETFs. The market evidence: $BTC current price is $78,026, still 38% below the $126,000 peak; the supply narrative has not changed for half a year, and the same logic cannot explain the recent 22.6% rebound in the past 30 days, nor the previous pullback. As for the projection that the number of millionaires far exceeds the 21 million coins, it ignores that Bitcoin is divisible down to satoshis. Scarcity is a long-term foundation, not a short-term pricing variable. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. Why did UNI surge today?
Recently, Robinhood Chain has been extremely strong. Just now, $UNI's fees in the last 30 days reached $91.86 million, with Robinhood Chain contributing $52.67 million, accounting for more than half.
In the last 24 hours, UNI fees were $4.31 million, with Robinhood Chain at $3.7 million, accounting for over 85%.
In other words, UNI's revenue has surged due to Robinhood Chain, and the amount of UNI used for buyback and burn is also increasing.Wash makes a tough statement, September rate hike expectations suddenly heat up, the real danger is not the rate hike itself
This time, the market was truly shaken.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash sent a signal at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that was more hawkish than many had originally expected. He did not directly announce a rate hike in September, but the implication was clear: if inflation does not clearly return to the 2% target track, the Fed "still has work to do," and a rate hike is not ruled out.
This is why expectations for a September rate hike noticeably increased after the speech. CME data showed the market pricing pushed the probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to nearly 60%, with the latest reports around 58%.
But I think this should not be simply understood as "Wash has decided to hike rates in September."
The real trouble now is that the signals from inflation and employment are not entirely consistent.
In July, US PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, roughly flat with June, clearly above the Fed's 2% target; core PCE also remained at 3.3%. In other words, inflation has not been declining at the pace the Fed hoped.
On the other hand, employment has clearly cooled down.
US nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Moreover, May and June data were significantly revised downward earlier.
This creates the most awkward situation now: inflation hasn't come down yet, but employment is starting to weaken.
So I believe it is still too early to conclude whether there will be a rate hike in September.
The Fed will officially meet on September 15-16, and before that, there is a very important August nonfarm payroll report scheduled for release on September 4.
This data will likely determine the final direction in September.
If August employment rebounds significantly while inflation remains high, the likelihood of a September rate hike will further increase; conversely, if employment continues to deteriorate, the Fed will face the pressure of "hiking rates to fight inflation or first preventing further employment decline."
Therefore, what is most worth noting now is not the phrase "September rate hike," but that the Fed's policy logic is changing.
In the past, the market was more accustomed to guessing when the Fed would cut rates; now it is starting to trade again on "whether there will be a rate hike."
This also has a direct impact on asset prices.
After Wash's speech, US short-term bond yields rose noticeably, the dollar gained support, gold fell significantly, and risk assets came under some pressure.
Personally, I tend to see this as a "re-pricing of expectations" rather than the official start of a new rate hike cycle.
Because the US economy is not overheated overall. Q2 GDP growth was only 1.5%, lower than Q1's 2.1%.
So the biggest focus going forward is actually just one:
Will inflation continue to be stubborn?
If the answer is "yes," then the probability of a September rate hike may continue to rise, and the volatility of gold, BTC, and high-valuation tech stocks will significantly increase; if inflation starts to cool again, the currently elevated rate hike expectations may quickly fall back.
Therefore, the easiest mistake now is to take the "58% probability of a September rate hike" as a certainty.
Prices are always more honest than words.
Next, keep an eye on August nonfarm payrolls, August CPI, and inflation data before the September meeting; this is more important than rushing to guess whether the Fed will hike rates or not now.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 The biggest disagreement in the memory market right now is just how exaggerated this round of gains will be. BofA's latest assessment is quite interesting: the market may still be underestimating the upside elasticity of DRAM in 2027. Recently, investors' concerns about memory stocks have mainly focused on three points: whether long-term agreements will limit ASP increases; whether the industry's already high capital expenditures will soon lead to increased supply; and whether GPU/CPU despecification will reduce the memory capacity required per chip. But BofA believes that NVIDIA's 2027 sales growth guidance may cause these cautious investors to revise their models. The key point is: if NVIDIA's sales growth reaches about 70% in 2027, then the corresponding memory demand growth might not just be 48%, but could potentially surge to 80% or even higher. This is clearly more aggressive compared to BofA's current baseline forecast of 48% global DRAM sales growth. The current baseline assumption is: ASP up 24%, bit growth 19%. Why is there room for even higher growth? First, NVIDIA's 70% growth is already given under the premise of "memory tightness." If the Rubin and Vera platforms ramp up faster, or if AI accelerator demand continues to exceed expectations, the memory shortage could be further amplified. Second, demand is not only coming from NVIDIA. The ASIC and TPU camps are also increasingly... 【The people who least wanted stablecoins are now starting to create their own stablecoins?】
I think this change is more worth discussing than BTC's price fluctuations today.
In the past, traditional banks were most worried that stablecoins would siphon money out of bank accounts.
But now the trend has actually reversed.
JPMorgan Chase is evaluating its own stablecoin solution, and big banks like Citibank, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are also advancing joint stablecoin plans.
To put it bluntly, banks may have realized one thing:
If stablecoins really become the next generation of payment and settlement tools, if they don't get involved, the market will be taken by others.
But the most interesting part is yet to come.
While banks are scrambling for position, the Bank for International Settlements has just publicly stated that current stablecoins are not yet sufficient to become large-scale payment tools and favors tokenized deposits instead.
So the current picture is especially interesting:
Banks fear stablecoins will steal their business, so they start researching stablecoins themselves; meanwhile, regulators are saying stablecoins may not be the final answer.
So here’s the question.
If in the end banks really develop stablecoins, how much of the crypto industry's biggest moat will remain?
I actually think this might be more worth watching than a coin's 10% price swing today.
Do you think stablecoins will ultimately steal business from banks, or will banks completely "bankify" stablecoins? #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 $BTC #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
Charles Schwab plans to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK — here are my thoughts 😯
The long-established US brokerage Charles Schwab is about to add trading for SOL, AVAX, and $LINK. Previously, the platform only offered BTC and ETH.
$SOL is currently priced at $105. After the news broke, it surged short-term and is now in a consolidation phase digesting the positive news.
$AVAX is currently $7.31, showing a generally weak trend with limited gains driven by the positive news.
$LINK is currently $11.4, with little volatility, moving in sync with the broader market.
I think this is a genuine positive development. Charles Schwab has a large user base, so ordinary US stock investors no longer need to go to specialized crypto exchanges; they can buy these coins directly in their stock accounts. This could bring potential incremental funds in the medium to long term. Also, being selected by a traditional major brokerage indicates these projects have gained a certain level of recognition from traditional finance, no longer only BTC and ETH are noticed.
However, we should be rational. The feature will not officially launch for a few months; this is currently an expectation-driven phase, and it’s easy to see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. The price has already risen once after the announcement, so don’t blindly chase the highs.
In the short term, this is more about emotional catalysts; the market still depends on the overall market and macro environment. In the medium to long term, it shows traditional finance is slowly embracing mainstream altcoins, and compliant channels will increase. But positive news doesn’t mean an immediate sustained rally; ultimately, it depends on whether real capital actually enters the market. [US Stock Funds Outflow $22.3 Billion, Why Is Tech Attracting Capital?]
Conclusion: Funds are shifting from large-cap indices to cash flow platforms that can realize AI; MSFT is positioned as "defensive with an offensive bias," no orders placed yet.
Keywords: fund flows, Azure, Copilot, cash flow. As of the week ending August 26, US stock funds saw an outflow of $22.3 billion, while tech funds had an inflow of $1.8 billion; tech was under pressure on Friday, with MSFT rising 1.66% to $513.53.
Microsoft connects enterprise workflows with Azure, Microsoft 365, and Copilot. Cloud scale, developer ecosystem, and migration costs form the moat. FQ4 revenue was $90 billion, up 18%, Cloud revenue $59.3 billion, up 27%, Azure up 43%; operating cash flow $55.4 billion, but free cash flow $19.6 billion, AI capital expenditures suppress conversion rate.
Risks include long-term debt at 4.73%, AI returns, OpenAI dependency, and antitrust; catalysts to watch are next week's employment data and cloud orders.
Technical aspect: closed at $513.53 on August 28, $518 is only for breakout observation, if it falls below $505, continue to wait; touching does not equal buying.
Key takeaway: funds are withdrawing from indices but remain with platforms that can turn AI into contracts and cash. #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 #“AI股神”基金清仓，美光单日涨超15%
For research record only, not investment advice【TRUMP 8·30 Alert】 Currently at $2.6, a 15% plunge from yesterday's high of $3.07. After a ten-day surge of 93% from the 8/13 low of $1.37, it abruptly stopped — the team-related address dumped 2.62 million tokens ($6.21 million) into OKX, repeating the script of April when 8 million tokens were transferred.
$2.285 is the bulls' lifeline; holding it means a fight back to the $2.95–3.0 short squeeze wall; breaking it points to $1.85. The mid-November elections are the only real catalyst.
⚠️ 80% of tokens are locked by related entities, unlocking until 2028, chasing higher means taking the bag. (Not investment advice)
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 In August 2026, American startup Heron Power announced a $100 million investment to convert a warehouse near San Jose, California, into an advanced transformer factory. The company's investors include Andreessen Horowitz and Breakthrough Energy Ventures, with total support of about $140 million. Heron plans to produce a 5-megawatt medium-voltage power conversion system, aiming to use chips and software control technology to transform decades-old traditional transformer structures. Mass production targets are set for the end of 2027, and customers have not yet been disclosed, but power companies and data center developers have already shown interest in procurement. The company's opportunity comes from a very real gap: delivery times for some large U.S. power transformers have extended to four years. AI companies can buy GPUs, acquire land, and even build power generation equipment themselves, but may be unable to safely deliver electricity to data centers due to a lack of transformers and switchgear. The computing power race is ultimately stalled, and the project may be held back by a steel machine that looks completely lacking in technology. Grid equipment neglected for decades The basic task of transformers is to use electromagnetic induction to change AC voltage. Power plants need to raise voltage so that electricity can be transmitted over long distances with low loss; Before use in cities, factories, and homes, voltage must be gradually lowered. Without transformers, power generation, transmission, and consumption cannot be connected into a complete system. Large power grids in Europe and America were expanded in the 1960s and 1970s. At that time, electricity demand was steadily growing, and power companies continued to purchase equipmentMany people, upon hearing that the CLARITY Act will be voted on in the Senate in mid-September, immediately start fantasizing about a new round of broad policy benefits.
But honestly, this optimistic sentiment hides an extremely dangerous cognitive trap.
In recent years, the SEC's vague enforcement has indeed tormented the market, but at the same time, it has given many baseless air projects room to survive in murky waters—after all, no one knows where the regulatory red lines are, so token teams continue to aggressively pump and dump in the gray area.
Once the CLARITY Act is implemented, clearly defining token securities attributes and multi-token ETF admission standards, the rules of the game will be fundamentally rewritten.
Under a compliance framework, Wall Street institutions will scrutinize with a sharp eye; leading public chains with real staking yields, decentralized governance, and high-throughput on-chain ecosystems will be quickly included in compliant ETF allocation lists, attracting trillions in long-term incremental capital from traditional markets. Meanwhile, air tokens surviving on regulatory ambiguity will be almost completely exposed under thorough institutional due diligence, and their liquidity will be drained in a very short time.
Compliance has never been a springtime for all projects; it is an industrial meat grinder that completely separates truly valuable assets from trash.
With the September vote imminent, have you seriously checked which tokens in your holdings can withstand institutional due diligence and which are merely surviving on regulatory ambiguity?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 🚀 $OKB battles around the hundred-dollar mark, can the burn narrative still hold?
OKB is currently trading around 109-110 USD, down from the August peak of 120, with a market cap of about 2.2 billion. Last August, OKX burned 279 million tokens, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million, making it even scarcer than Bitcoin; after the Jovian upgrade of X Layer, Gas fees dropped to as low as 0.0001 USD, and xStocks tokenized US stocks are also seeing volume, so the ecosystem is not empty.
On-chain data: total supply fixed at 21 million, circulating supply very thin, any buying pressure causes a sharp rise; recently, the price retraced from 120 to 110, indicating that 100-110 is a dense trading zone, and the overhead supply needs time to digest, making short-term trading tough.
Platform/whale activity: OKX wallet has deeply integrated X Layer, and xStocks' trading volume on X Layer has surpassed Solana and Ethereum, becoming the core liquidity for tokenized stocks. This is key for OKB's upgrade from a "platform token" to an "on-chain financial foundation."
My view: scarcity + platform token + tokenization narrative, the logic remains intact. The bottom has lifted from 90 to 110, and chips are consolidating. What’s missing is a trigger, such as a hit product from X Layer or regulatory compliance landing. Patient holders need not rush; if a real 20% big green candle appears, then we can talk about reducing positions. $ETH has been really frustrating these past 4 hours. The price is stuck stubbornly around 2455, almost flat, with the RSI hovering around the midpoint. The Fed's hawkish remarks are still weighing down, the rate hike expectations haven't faded, and risk appetite can't pick up. It looks like a shakeout, but don't be too confident chasing longs now; if support doesn't hold, the next drop will come fast. The market never lacks volatility, what it lacks is not getting caught in the cut.The crypto bid looks constructive, but not yet broad enough to call a regime shift. BTC holding above $78,000 while ETH and SOL modestly outperform suggests risk appetite is improving at the margin, rather than capital abandoning quality for speculation.
I would treat this as a tactical expansion in risk, with inflation concerns and the gold versus BTC flow debate still limiting conviction. Sustained relative strength beyon#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto $BTC is stuck at $77,968, but volume grew to 1.26x the average in 1 hour — the price has barely moved in the last 4 hours. $1.74 billion in 24 hours — solid, but without a driver.
What is this: noise before a push or holding at a "dead point"? 78% long positions, but the median is +1.02%. Some are confident, some are waiting for a signal.
Market pulse: impulse volume amid stagnation — a rare pattern. How to interpret it?HYPE｜September 1–6 Window and September 29: Next Unlock (Coexisting Calibers)
The 9/1–6 window includes core contributor releases (CoinLaunch 6.43 million, AInvest 9.92M calibers coexist, continuing previous records); 9/29 is the next large monthly unlock of the same scale as 8/29 (KuCoin/BigGo calibers). Verification action: Combine the 8/29 claim rate performance, sequentially verify the actual on-chain release volume and claim rate, establishing continuous observation of "unlock → claim → exchange inflow."
ASTER｜September 17: Team Cliff First Unlock
Approximately 400 million team and advisor holdings will be linearly released monthly starting 9/17 (edgeX caliber about 10 million/month, 40 months), marking the first team unlock since launch. Destination is more important than quantity: transfers to exchanges and transfers to burn addresses have opposite implications. Verification action: On the unlock day, verify the recipient address type, and evaluate net supply changes combined with the current repurchase and burn pace of about 220,000 tokens/day.
HYPE｜October 3: AQAv2 First Distribution
The direction is repurchase and burn rather than unlock: the first distribution will test whether "about 90% of USDC reserve earnings are used for repurchase" is executed as announced (note the difference from the media's "99% protocol fees" caliber), and the actual repurchase volume and execution method determine the credibility of the token value capture narrative.LINK｜** No new events within the window, Schwab inclusion (official announcement on 8/27, no launch date) still in the "next few months" window; price on 8/30 was 11.40 (-0.51%), after reaching 11.89 (+5.11%) on 8/28 due to Schwab news and then retreating. Wyoming stablecoin migration to CCIP and Sergey appointed as CFTC innovation advisor serve as background narrative; paid call revenue is still to be verified, Reserve added 462,730 LINK in August.
ASTER｜ No new events within the window. Price around 0.699 (+0.07%, 8/30, market cap about 1.89 billion, 7-day +9.16%); on 8/25, dual burn confirmed on-chain (2.85 million tokens, cumulative about 188.87 million, about 3.78% of target reduction) continues, with the 99% fee buyback + equivalent burn mechanism unchanged since 6/17. The team's cliff unlock on 9/17 (edgeX estimate about 10 million tokens/month for 40 months) is the main supply risk in the next 30 days.XAU $BTC $ETH
The long-term logic of gold and Bitcoin differs, but they can be highly synchronized in the short term. So far, driven mainly by "dollar credit concerns," both show a strong positive correlation and rise together, though the volatility range and driving details have fundamental differences.
Currently, gold prices are in the technical resistance zone of $4700~$4800.
$BTC faces resistance in the $85,000~$90,000 range, with short-term profit-taking pressure.
❤️❤️❤️ Everyone is welcome to share insights on long-term investment in gold and Bitcoin in the comments section for discussion 🤝UNI｜ On 8/30, a single-day surge of 11.58% to 4.91 (according to finwire, with about $400 million traded in 24h), but the source clearly states "no confirmed catalyst on the day, no governance vote results, no protocol announcements," classifying it as a price and volume event; previously on 8/28, it rose 15% in one day due to news of the eight-chain fee expansion vote (according to Futu) before retreating. The eight-chain fee expansion Snapshot vote (initiated on 8/28, lasting 5 days) is still ongoing, with results pending; if passed, it would increase annualized revenue by about $27 million and cover Arbitrum, Base, Celo, OP, Soneium, X Layer, Worldchain, Zora, and all remaining v3 pools (v3OpenFeeAdapter activates automatically). Background: the fee switch activates on 2025/12/28, UNIfication passed with 99.9% support and initially burned 100 million tokens; cumulative protocol revenue is about $23.15 million, daily revenue about $325,000 (after the July v4 seven-chain expansion), Ark estimates annualized burn at about 90 million. The discrepancy in burn estimates (Ark 90 million vs. Futu 34 million) continues.Brothers, $BICO has bounced up strongly from the bottom this time.
Just checked the data, BICO is currently at $0.02302. It has rebounded nearly 30% from the low around 0.018 on August 16, with continuous bullish candles over the past week. Some traders have observed that BICO broke above the upper Bollinger Band from the low of 0.02187, and the MACD shows a strong bullish signal, indicating the short-term trend has indeed strengthened.
📊 What happened? Two things are driving it
First, the Q2 earnings report gave the market confidence.
The earnings report released on August 18 showed BICO's gross margin surged from 44% year-over-year to 59%, adjusted EBITDA turned from a loss to a profit of 20 million SEK, with organic growth of 7%. After the report, the stock price jumped 13%, and although it later pulled back, the market is gradually pricing in the improvement in profitability.
Second, the chip turnover is nearly complete.
BICO fell from its ATH of $8 to 0.011, a drop of 99.86% over four and a half years. The violent 430% rebound from 0.011 to 0.0638 at the end of July was essentially a "short squeeze"—the main force collected chips at the bottom and then violently pumped the price, crushing all shorts. After that rally, the chip structure is transitioning from "high concentration" to "retail investors taking over." This process is not finished yet, but the most intense phase may be over.
⚠️ But the problems remain the same
The project-based automation business is still dragging.
The Q2 report shows that large custom automation projects have long cycles and delivery difficulties, and North American academia still faces funding pressure. This business is unlikely to be a growth engine in the short term.
Cash flow has some issues.
Operating cash flow was negative 53 million SEK, mainly due to a 54 million SEK negative impact from changes in working capital. There is still 628 million SEK in cash on hand, so no immediate shortage, but the sustainability of cash flow needs attention.
CEO change brings uncertainty.
Maria Forss stepped down, and Anders Fogelberg took over. Leadership changes always bring some short-term uncertainty.
💰 View: Stronger than before, but not yet a reversal
Bouncing from 0.018 to 0.023 is a strong move in BICO's recent trend. Some traders see 0.0244-0.0246 as a short-term resistance zone, with a breakout target of 0.0250-0.0255. If it passes this level, 0.03 or even higher can be discussed as targets.
But don't forget, after the rally from 0.011 to 0.0638, it fell back to 0.018. Such rebounds in small-cap coins come fast and go fast. Chasing around 0.023 faces resistance at 0.024-0.025, so the upside is limited. If you want to get in, waiting for a pullback to 0.021-0.022 to confirm support is safer.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
Long: Consider after a stable pullback to 0.021-0.022, stop loss at 0.020, target 0.024-0.025
Short: Light position if the 0.024-0.025 rebound is weak, tight stop loss, target 0.022-0.023
Leverage: Liquidity is average, avoid high leverage
Risk warning: Small-cap coins are highly volatile, strictly use stop loss
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Charles Schwab plans to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK
✅ Institutions take another step! Charles Schwab launches public chain tokens, can the narrative directly drive the market?
New progress in institutional capital entry: Charles Schwab plans to add support for trading SOL, AVAX, and $LINK
The market shows two completely different views:
Bullish side: Traditional brokers opening trading channels means more compliant capital inflows, which will bring incremental buying pressure in the long term, and valuations in the public chain sector are expected to rise;
Cautious side: When news is realized, it often means the good news is already priced in; in the short term, "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is common, so don’t rush in just based on the news
Underlying logic:
Institutional access is a long-term positive, but incremental capital inflow is a slow process; it won’t flood the market immediately after the news breaks. The news mostly acts as a short-term emotional catalyst, not an immediate trigger for a major uptrend.
Current practical strategy:
1. SOL, as the strong leader of this public chain round, can be included in the key watchlist; wait for a pullback to support before considering entry;
2. Do not chase AVAX and LINK immediately after the news; beware of pullbacks after the good news is priced in;
3. The main focus remains anchored on BTC and $ETH; institutional narratives can only be considered a bonus, not to be traded independently from the overall market;
4. Short-term rallies driven by positive news are suitable for taking profits, not for opening new heavy positions.
Institutional positioning is a long-term bull market script, but speculation must distinguish between expectations and reality.
Do you think this news can trigger a new round of public chain market rally? #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Kioxia and SanDisk plan to invest $31 billion to expand NAND, which sounds like a frenzy of AI demand, but also hides traces of the old cycle.
What is the storage industry most afraid of? Not that no one buys, but that everyone simultaneously believes there will be a shortage in the future and then expands production together. When the new capacity actually comes online, if demand doesn't keep up, prices and profits will be driven down by themselves.
AI indeed requires more high-capacity, low-power storage, and data centers can't survive on GPUs alone. But NAND is different from HBM; it is more prone to follow the traditional commodity cycle: when scarce, everyone calls it a strategic asset; when oversupplied, it turns into a price war.
So I will view this news from two sides. In the short term, it shows AI infrastructure is still consuming supply; in the long term, we need to watch whether manufacturers maintain discipline. The most expensive lesson in semiconductors is usually not about not expanding production, but expanding too confidently.
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 BTC/ETH｜Rate hike pricing rises to 57%, BTC ETF ends nine consecutive inflows turning to net outflows
The hawkish pricing of the Jackson Hole speech continues to ferment in this window: rate futures have raised the probability of a September rate hike from about 42% to 57%, with a December rate hike fully priced in; the 30-year US Treasury yield intraday broke through 5.3% (a high since 2007), the 2-year yield is about 4.35%, the US dollar index approaches 100, and gold fell more than 2% on 8/28 in a single day. The macro liquidity dimension remains tight, consistent with the previous day's judgment.
A first signal of a shift in funding has appeared: BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $202 million on 8/29, ending the previous nine consecutive inflows (according to Farside data, ARKB had the largest single-day outflow of $114.9 million); previously, the combined weekly BTC+ETH ETFs had a net inflow of about $2.6 billion, breaking the strongest record since October 2025. Prices stabilized on 8/30: BTC around 78,208 (-0.03%, according to Moneynomical; CoinLore shows 78,219/+0.4% coexisting), ETH around 2,460 (+0.12%~+0.6% coexisting), no further deep decline, but the tug-of-war between "capital inflow vs. macro tightening" has shifted from divergence to a pullback on the capital side.📊 Bitcoin is repeatedly tugged at high levels, moving in sync with gold, what signal does this release?
$BTC is oscillating back and forth within a high-level range, with bulls and bears locked in a tough battle.
A recent obvious change: the price correlation between Bitcoin and gold has significantly strengthened.
Industry disagreement:
Some interpret this as institutional risk-averse funds entering the market, treating BTC as digital gold allocation, which is a medium- to long-term bullish signal;
Others think it's not good, indicating crypto assets are being priced as risk-averse assets, weakening their growth attributes, and the bull market's momentum will be greatly reduced.
Underlying logic:
When Bitcoin's movement closely follows gold, it means the core driver of current market pricing is no longer bull market sentiment but global risk aversion and the strength of the US dollar.
This implies that the market is likely to experience narrow-range oscillations going forward, with rapid one-sided rallies being difficult to occur, and frequent whipsaws becoming the norm.
Current practical strategy:
1. Maintain a range-bound approach for BTC, buy near the lower boundary, take profits near the upper boundary, avoid betting on one-sided moves;
2. ETH and $SOL follow the overall market rhythm; before the market chooses a direction, reduce short-term trading frequency;
3. Avoid frequently switching altcoins chasing hotspots; during market oscillations, thematic rotations are very fast, making it easy to chase highs and get trapped;
4. Keep some cash on hand and increase short-term positions only after the market chooses a direction.
In the second half of the bull market, don't expect daily surges. High-level tug-of-war is essentially a process of chip exchange.
Do you think the stronger BTC and gold correlation is a good or bad thing?
#BTC #DigitalGold #MarketReview #BullMarketRhythm #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Cybercab's real vehicle testing has increased the market's risk appetite for the implementation of autonomous driving, but the 2027 commercialization timeline limits the short-term valuation re-rating and position follow-up strength. $TSLA's market shows a contradiction between expected speculation and earnings realization vacuum.
The Dallas test area expanded by 158%, and the September 4th conference maximized event risk premium. Energy consumption of 165 Wh/mile and a target price below $30,000 confirm the marginal cost advantage. However, before scaled revenue realization in 2027, capital is mainly based on risk appetite assumptions for FSD v15 and HW4 hardware capabilities.
The trading desk ranks the driving factors as: risk appetite changes triggered by the conference technical demonstration > institutional position rebalancing based on post-2027 cash flow > macro interest rate environment squeezing high-valuation tech stocks.
The trigger for the upside scenario is the conference clearly stating that FSD v15 on HW4 hardware will be deployed without regulation before 2027. At that point, the trading desk will increase the valuation weight of autonomous vehicle fleets, shifting long positions from short-term speculation to medium- and long-term allocation; the scenario fails if the conference only stays at technical demonstration without providing regulatory approval and commercialization timetable.
The trigger for the downside scenario is the market focus shifting to the earnings realization vacuum before 2027. If macro inflation data repeatedly suppresses risk appetite, capital will take profits and exit early, causing position stampede; the scenario fails if the scope of unregulated commercial pilot operations in Dallas and other places expands beyond expectations.
The indicator for judging the current price structure failure lies in the changes of position and volatility after the conference. If trading volume does not continue to expand after September 4 and implied volatility quickly falls, it indicates the event catalyst has been fully priced, and prices will return to range-bound oscillation.
The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are the regulatory advancement statements about FSD v15 on current HW4 at the September 4 conference, and the net change direction of institutional positions after the conference.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 #财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件HYPE｜The largest unlock in history did not drop but rose the day after landing, selling pressure not realized but claim volume unconfirmed
Within 24 hours after the unlock execution on 8/29, HYPE became the strongest performer in the market: CoinMarketCap reported 83.23 (+3.17%) on 8/30, CoinLore 82.93, compared to BTC around 78,208 on 8/30 (-0.03%~+0.4% with multiple sources), showing significant excess returns. On the unlock day, the aid fund actually executed a buyback of about 27,000 HYPE, approximately 2.2 million USD, which is verifiable on-chain behavior within the window; historically, the actual claim rate after unlocks is only 0.79% (on 8/6, about 620 million USD unlocked but only about 22.65 million USD actually claimed). The price on 8/29 did not experience a crash-like sell-off, falling within the historical performance range after unlocks.
Supporting evidence: ① On 8/29, the aid fund publicly bought 27,000 HYPE on the open market (quoted from web3paper, about 2.2 million USD), consistent with the "buyback bottom support" narrative; ② New narratives overlay: expanding RWA tokenized stock trading, HIP-4 permissionless upgrade preparing to launch prediction markets, CFTC compliance review entering the US market path, all represent incremental adoption; ③ Prior to 8/30, HYPE spot ETF net inflow background (After unlocking and landing 14.176 million HYPE tokens (approximately 1.1 billion USD) yesterday, the price did not fall but instead rose: on 8/30 it closed above 83 USD (CoinMarketCap reported 83.23, +3.17%; CoinLore 82.93), significantly outperforming BTC (+0.49%); on the unlocking day, the aid fund actually bought about 27,000 tokens (approximately 2.2 million USD) to hedge, combined with the triple narrative of RWA tokenized stocks, HIP-4 prediction market, and CFTC compliance path, the selling pressure did not materialize. However, the actual on-chain claim volume and exchange inflow data have not yet been fully disclosed, so the judgment on selling pressure remains to be verified.
Macro continues to tighten: after Wash's speech, the probability of a rate hike in September rose to 57% (previously 42%), the December rate hike has been fully priced in, and the 30-year US Treasury yield intraday broke through 5.3%, reaching a new high since 2007; BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about 202 million USD on 8/29, ending nine consecutive inflows (according to Farside, ARKB had the largest outflow of 114.9 million) — the first bearish signal appeared in the previously "ETF inflow and price divergence" capital pillar. The August non-farm payrolls announced on 9/4 is the next major variable.September rate hike expectations rise, will the altcoin season rhythm change?
Many are immersed in the joy of profiting from altcoin rotation, overlooking the macro signals coming from across the ocean.
Official Wash publicly warns of inflation risks, and the market directly raises the probability of a rate hike in September.
Once liquidity tightening expectations emerge, all high-risk assets must be repriced, and the crypto market will hardly remain unaffected.
There are now two voices in the market:
One group of traders believes it is just hawkish talk, a short-term emotional disturbance that does not change the overall bull market trend; a pullback is a buying opportunity. The other group is more cautious: once the Fed restarts rate hikes and the dollar strengthens, funds will withdraw from risk markets, and the altcoin season may face a deep correction earlier than expected.
Underlying logic:
How far the bull market goes depends on liquidity. Rising rate hike expectations mean the easing environment is tightening, contract positions are prone to concentrated liquidations, and short-term market volatility will increase significantly.
My current practical strategy:
1. Retain core BTC and ETH positions, do not blindly liquidate, but no longer arbitrarily increase positions;
2. Short-term rotation in strong assets like SOL, only buy on dips, strictly avoid chasing highs;
3. Avoid small-cap meme and hype coins entirely, as in a liquidity contraction environment, these coins have no support when falling;
4. Take profits in batches on rallies, keep cash positions to prepare for volatility and shakeouts.
The biggest pitfall in a bull market is focusing only on market excitement while ignoring macro black swans.
Once the liquidity trend reverses, no matter how strong the thematic narrative, it cannot withstand selling pressure.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Account Position Divergence Radar
The side with more people does not necessarily have heavier positions; this specifically separates quantity and weight.
$DOGE account numbers consistently lean long, but the top holdings ratio remains below 1, so the numerical advantage has not turned into a top position advantage. Price is rising while OI is falling, the most certain factor is position reduction driving this, but the specific exit party cannot be confirmed by this data alone. If the price rises but top holdings continue to lean short, position measurement conflicts are still likely during pullbacks.
$SUI overall accounts, top accounts, and top holdings are not aligned, currently resembling a divergence market. A 15-minute rise accompanied by risk exposure contraction suggests repair first; do not prematurely label it as a new long structure. For now, only disagreement is confirmed; trading direction requires a second layer of evidence from positions and price.
$ZEC account numbers have already leaned short, but top position size has not followed; current divergence comes from quantity and weight. The decline accompanied by OI decrease mainly features old positions exiting rather than new positions continuing to push prices down. The short side’s next need is not more accounts but confirmation of top position weight.An easily overlooked signal: Coinbase BTC Premium Index has turned positive again.
This means that spot buying in the US market is warming up again.
I think this is more worth paying attention to than simply watching BTC price fluctuations.
But we shouldn’t rush to call it a “bull market confirmation” yet — a single day turning positive means nothing; sustained positivity is what matters.
If Coinbase Premium, ETF inflows, and spot trading volume all strengthen simultaneously going forward, then the nature of this rally may gradually shift from a “rebound” to a “trend reversal.”
My view: I’m slightly bullish in the short term but won’t chase the highs.
The real signal worth adding positions for is sustained return of US capital, not just BTC pulling a single bullish candle. In short, the core conclusion: The correction brought by Jackson Hole's hawkish bias is coming to an end. Risk assets saw buying support at low levels during the day, leading to a recovery rally. Overall, the rebound is weak, and the market is still waiting for this week's inflation data to provide direction. During the day, global macro outlook: US stock index futures consolidated within a narrow range. The mirror stock xNVDA is currently priced at 218.26, +0.84% intraday, with an intraday high of 221.47 and short-term support at 213.20. The selling pressure after the sharp drop has basically been released, and the market has entered a bottoming phase in the short term. Gold mirror stocks PAXG and XAUT have slightly rebounded from their stage lows, with declines contained. WTI crude oil closed slightly higher, and commodities ended their consecutive declines, turning into a range-bound consolidation pattern. Crypto market overview: BTC currently at 78,316.4, 24-hour gain +0.37%; ETH quoted at 2,464.1, 24-hour gain +0.92%. BETH and STETH followed Ethereum upward, with the market rising broadly and bottom-fishing funds entering the market. Market panic has clearly subsided, and marginal bullish sentiment has warmed up. On the liquidity side, BTC and ETH spot trading has rebounded compared to yesterday, and leveraged liquidation has come to an end. BTC spot ETFs saw slight net outflows, ETH spot ETFs maintained continuous net inflows, showing structural divergence in funds. Short-term funds have shifted from safe-haven to risk assets with a slight return to large-scale institutional capital inflows yet. Regulatory and Industry News: The U.S. stablecoin bill will enter the congressional discussion phase this week, with low short-term implementation probability; No sudden crypto regulatory policies over the weekendA red line erases nine days of tenderness. Have you ever thought that the worst market move isn't a crash, but a "stop"? The US spot Bitcoin ETF delivered a disappointing report card last Friday: a net outflow of $201.8 million, ending a sweet nine-day streak of net inflows. Before this, over $3 billion had just flowed into these funds, like a crowd of passengers rushing to get on the bus, suddenly stopping at the platform. But don't rush to tear off your long positions. If we zoom back a bit, the overall picture of August is still warm-toned, with net inflows of about $3.3 billion left for the month, and only one trading day left until the month-end settlement. In other words, the outflows on this day are more like a small thorn than a wound. However, what I want to emphasize is not the thorn itself, but where it is lodged. From the derivatives perspective, nine consecutive days of entry have already accumulated considerable tailwind positions, the funding rates for perpetual contracts have quietly risen, and leveraged long positions are slowly "growing fat" amid low volatility. At times like this, an unexpected bearish candle may not change direction, but it can gently pierce through overly comfortable emotions like a needle. What really needs to be watched is not today's outflow numbers, but whether the fees will quickly turn negative in the coming days and whether open interest has significantly decreased without much price drop. That is the sign that crowded trading is starting to loosen, much more honest than a single day of ETF flows. The logic of a slightly bullish trend still holds: overall liquidity in August was positive, no new cracks appeared in the macro environment, and Bitcoin on July$31 BILLION BET ON AI STORAGE — BUT THE MARKET ISN’T BUYING IT.
SanDisk and Kioxia just announced plans to invest $31B in Japan to expand 3D NAND production.
Sounds bullish for AI infrastructure, right?
Not so fast.
The market’s real question is simple:
Can AI inference and data-center demand grow fast enough to absorb all this new NAND supply?
If yes, SanDisk’s long-term story stays intact, and this pullback could just be profit-taking.
#DailyOrbit #BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies the key level battle
This round of pullback after the surge is not a short-term shakeout; the risk of a phase adjustment is rising.
From ETF fund data, it is clear that buying strength has significantly weakened. During the previous upward phase, daily net inflows could steadily maintain at $300-500 million, but in recent days the inflow scale has sharply shrunk, and on the last trading day it even directly turned into a large net outflow.
The market seems emotionally hot, with retail FOMO sentiment high, but in reality institutional buying has stopped, the largest incremental funds are starting to exit, and the rally naturally loses its core driving force.
Market activity has also cooled down in sync, trading volume has continuously shrunk, market trading willingness has rapidly declined, returning to the low levels of the previous consolidation period. Without incremental funds to take over, relying only on on-exchange speculation, prices are unlikely to continue breaking upward.
The coming week is a very critical observation window. If ETF funds continue to flow out, then this round of the top is basically confirmed. If stablecoins USDT and USDC also shift from net inflow to outflow, it means on-exchange bottom-fishing funds are also starting to withdraw, and the adjustment market will officially land.
In the short term, the pressure above is heavy; even if a slight rebound occurs, it is most likely just a pause in the downtrend. At this stage, it is not advisable to aggressively chase longs; patiently wait for signals of stabilization in funds and price before making moves. #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Bitcoin needs attention recently, as ETF funds have started to show net outflows.
This round of $BTC pushed from around 60,000 to 80,000 USD, with the US spot Bitcoin ETF being one of the key buying engines. But data on August 28 weakened: spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of about $202 million, ending the previous nine consecutive trading days of net inflows totaling over $3 billion. Breaking it down, ARKB, BITB, and IBIT all faced redemption pressure, indicating that it’s not just fringe products; the major channels are also cooling down.
However, we can’t judge a trend reversal based on just one day. Over the past five trading days, there was still a net inflow of about $925 million, and August’s cumulative inflow remains positive, so the fundamentals are not completely broken. The key is to observe whether there will be continuous net outflows afterward and whether BTC can reclaim the 80,000 level. If it’s just a single-day profit-taking, it’s a normal turnover during high-level volatility; if ETFs continue to withdraw and the price can’t hold the 77,000–78,000 support, the short-term adjustment period will lengthen, with support expected near 74,000.
On the macro side, Wash leans hawkish, with US bonds and the dollar suppressing risk assets. ETH ETFs have relatively inflows, indicating funds are rotating among the majors. Operationally, reduce leverage, take profits in batches, and wait for ETF flows and spot trading volume confirmation before adding positions.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Connected to the chain.
A project called Decentralized Intelligence has been included in BNB Chain's DappBay. The official page categorizes it under AI Infra and AI Agent, positioning it in three layers: the bottom layer uses real computing power and native data models, the middle layer relies on the Agent Network for task collaboration, and the top layer provides event inference, quantitative research, and API services externally.
This is the project's own introduction; the page does not yet have user data or audit results. The only proven fact upon launch is that it has passed the inclusion threshold of the BNB ecosystem.
My judgment: AI×Web3 projects will become more numerous, but don't take "launching on an aggregation platform" as a certification of strength. When looking at such projects, first distinguish the three layers: whether the computing power is real, whether the agents can run, and where the revenue comes from. Those that only talk narrative without presenting data should all be marked as project claims first. $CORE CORE: Saying goodbye to inflation narratives, entering the era of ⚠️ real revenue in 2026 Content is only a track exchange and review, not investment advice. Many people still remember CORE from the early airdrop and inflation incentive era. But in 2026, it has already changed its approach. In the past, public chains relied on token subsidies to burn the ecosystem, inflation to create hype, and when the hype faded, the price reverted to its original state. This is a cycle that most public chains cannot escape. Core DAO's answer this year is: no longer relying on additional issuance to tell stories, but relying on real ecosystem fee yields to create a buyback flywheel. Its positioning is clear: Bitcoin's power grid. Bitcoin has trillion-yuan assets lying in cold wallets for a long time, only hoarding, no interest, and no DeFi participation. lstBTC is non-custodial liquid staking, allowing BTC to obtain liquid staking certificates without handing over ownership, allowing for borrowing, trading, and earnings, releasing dormant Bitcoin liquidity. Custodian institutions such as BitGo, Cobo, and Fireblocks are all connected, opening BTC staking services to institutions; SatPay Bitcoin payment banking continues to advance, integrating staking interest, lending, and debit card consumption, generating real fee income that is then fed back to repurchase tokens. Many interpreted the previous dispute settlement with Maple Finance as a defeat. Essentially, it is a business loss stoppage: both parties refuse to admit fault, end the lengthy lawsuit, recover user assets, and clear ecosystem profitsBitcoin's early cycles saw hundredfold gains, but the returns in recent cycles have clearly narrowed. If this trend continues, Bitcoin will eventually resemble a mature asset more and more, with returns gradually normalizing. The maximum drawdowns in each cycle also illustrate the same issue. The largest drawdowns in Bitcoin's previous three major bear markets were approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%. In this cycle, Bitcoin fell from a high of about $125,000 in October 2025 to a low of about $58,500 in June 2026, a drawdown of about 53%.
NYDIG also reached a similar conclusion near the low point in June: this cycle's drawdown was 52.7%, 77.6% from 2021 to 2022, and between 84% and 94% in earlier cycles. The decline in each cycle is narrowing, and the bottoms are rising. This long-term volatility decline is regarded as one of the most distinctive features of the current phase. $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BTC's correlation with Nasdaq is declining, while its linkage with gold is rising, indicating a shift in market logic
After the hawkish shock at Jackson Hole, Grayscale released its latest market observation, highlighting a key structural change: BTC's 90-day correlation with Nasdaq has dropped from 60% to 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen above 50%.
Simple interpretation: For a long time, BTC was treated as a high-beta tech risk asset, moving in sync with US tech stocks. Now, some institutions are starting to view BTC as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation, no longer simply following tech stock fluctuations.
But the reality must be clear: the medium- to long-term logic is changing, yet in the short term, BTC still cannot escape the pressure from Federal Reserve interest rates.
When US Treasury yields rise, even inflation-resistant assets like gold and BTC will face downward pressure.
$BTC is currently in a contradictory phase of dual identity:
✅ Long term: With US debt continuously expanding, BTC is being revalued by institutions as a scarce reserve asset with allocation value;
❌ Short term: As long as interest rates remain high, the pressure on risk assets will not disappear.
In contrast, $ETH remains highly tied to tech growth assets, maintaining a high correlation with Nasdaq without decoupling.
The market performance is straightforward: during sharp declines, BTC has spot support, making pullbacks relatively controllable; ETH still follows risk appetite with intense volatility.The growth rate of tokenized stocks is even more impressive than the headlines suggest. The combined trading volume of Binance and the on-chain market's bStocks increased from 0.01% to 0.3% of the corresponding underlying stock ETFs in six weeks, expanding about 30 times.
Over 70% of the trading occurs on-chain, not on exchange apps. According to Binance Research Institute, the total trading volume of tokenized stocks in July was $18.2 billion, 4.4 times that of June, with DEX accounting for $12.8 billion. Three-quarters of Gen Z accounts are net buyers.
What concerns me is not the price fluctuations, but the shift in trading habits: U.S. stocks are moving from "open and close" trading to around-the-clock, with crypto natives bypassing traditional brokerage accounts and participating directly through on-chain wallets.
There's no turning back. For ordinary people, these products represent an additional way to access U.S. stocks, but asset mapping and redemption channels have yet to undergo a full cycle of testing. Understand this first before discussing anything else.The Fed's speech landed, and the September rate hike expectation surged directly from 35% to nearly 60%, causing the market to turn sharply.
The overnight market was very real:
The BTC range between 71,000 and 82,000 was tested downward, ETH's elasticity weakened, high Beta altcoins collectively plunged, and long positions across the network were liquidated in a chain reaction, with nearly $480 million liquidated in 24 hours.
An interesting divergence emerged:
Institutional spot ETFs are still steadily accumulating, while leveraged contract funds are fleeing wildly.
On one side, long-term funds are slowly positioning during the volatility; on the other, short-term speculative traders are panicking and stampeding.
This is the harsh truth of the current market:
The altcoin season was just in its early stage and had not entered a phase of crazy rallies yet.
Once macro liquidity tightens, all thematic narratives instantly fail.
A few days ago, Robinhood on-chain memes were partying wildly, PONS doubled in a single day, and various small-cap coins surged several times in a short period, leading many to believe a broad rally was imminent.
But when macro risks arise, sentiment coins without fundamental support fall mercilessly.
$ETH $BTC $TRUMP
Don't mistake the shuffling of funds within the market as a bull market signal.
Continuous ETH inflows only represent internal capital relocation within crypto.
As long as Fed rate hike expectations rise, global risk asset valuations must be repriced.
The next operational approach is simple:
If the lower bound of the range holds, small positions can be used to test the main tracks;
Once the key support is effectively broken, immediately reduce positions and hold cash to wait and see.
The market won't die; the frenzy will just be delayed. TRUMP at $2.50, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: rebounded 80% from 1.37 to 2.50, retail investors are shouting wildly, "Trump bull is back."
But the truth is—the only logic driving the price in the past two weeks was a denied rumor.
On August 22, the market went crazy spreading rumors that the Trump family was issuing a new coin, and TRUMP violently surged from 1.8 to 3.68. The next day, Eric Trump personally denied it: "No one is issuing a new coin; those who say so are scams." The price instantly dropped from 3.07 back to 2.50.
The rumor is your reason to buy, but it's the main force's reason to sell. During the same window, related wallets cashed out $3.39 million, and million-level tokens were transferred into OK.
First point: The new coin rumor is a "pump excuse," the team's real purpose is to sell off.
That big bullish candle on August 22, 99% of people thought "Trump bull is back," but on-chain data tells you the exact opposite truth:
Eric Trump personally stepped in to deny it—this is completely different from an "official denial" level; it's a direct slap from the core circle.
During the pump window, the team cashed out $3.39 million by adding and removing liquidity.
Second point: Supply will never disappear—900,000 tokens unlock daily, and 28.7 million tokens will be dumped in September.
TRUMP's total supply is 1 billion, with only 250 million currently circulating. The founding team and internal addresses like CIC Digital hold the majority; after lock-up, about 900,000 tokens still unlock daily into the market.
900,000 daily, 27 million monthly, 320 million yearly. This is not a "selling pressure risk," this is mathematically certain supply inflation.
The next big unlock is on September 18, about 28.7 million tokens (2.9% of total supply). At 2.50, worth approximately $71 million.
Third point: The candlestick is telling you—failing to break 3.07 means a second bottom test.
The daily chart still stands above 2.21, the mid-term rebound structure is not dead. But the 4-hour chart has changed from a "V-shaped reversal" to a "rally and fall."
2.50 is not a confirmed bottom, it's a pullback test. Only above 2.77 is it stable; below 2.30 means a second bottom test.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself.
On one side:
Rebounded 80% from 1.37, mid-term structure turning bullish
US election approaching, political narratives may erupt anytime
If BTC holds 76,000, meme sector rotation possible
August low 1.37 is a panic bottom with support
On the other side:
900,000 tokens unlock daily, 28.7 million tokens big unlock on 9/18
Team just cashed out $3.39 million at high levels
Rumor denied, narrative vacuum
Nearly a million addresses at a floating loss, every rebound is selling pressure
Trading strategy
Plan A: Defensive long
Enter in batches after stabilizing between 2.45–2.55, stop loss at 2.30. Target 1: halve position at 2.70–2.77, Target 2: reduce again at 3.00–3.07, only above 3.07 look to 3.47.
Plan B: Short on breakdown
4-hour close below 2.30, rebound fails at 2.38, light short. Targets 2.21→2.05. Stop loss above 2.45.
The rumor is your reason to buy, but it's the main force's reason to sell.
900,000 tokens unlock daily; supply is a math problem, not a faith problem.
Every time you chase highs thinking this time is different, the result is always the same.
What is your cost for TRUMP?
At 2.50, do you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Today many people asked me if the bull market is over. My answer is simple: a true bull market never rises straight up; it advances amid doubt and undergoes shakeouts amid panic.
To judge whether the trend is broken, don’t focus on intraday spikes; look at the underlying capital. BTC has fallen back to the 77,000 range, ETH is tugging below 2,500, and SOL, SUI, etc. are still rotating, indicating that funds in the market haven’t fully withdrawn, just pulled out from high leverage and short-term sentiment. The mainstream structure remains strong; the pullback looks more like chip rotation rather than a trend reversal. On the macro side, the 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007. Walsh has again emphasized inflation risks, and September rate hike expectations are pressuring risk assets, so short-term volatility will be amplified. But as long as there is support on-chain and from ETFs, it shouldn’t be prematurely declared dead.
My own approach is simple: don’t chase the rally, don’t go all in, don’t let a single bearish candle disrupt your rhythm. Take profits in layers, leaving room to re-enter; position size must withstand drawdowns, and sleep is more important than perfectly timing the bottom. The market is priced by sentiment in the short term, but by trend and capital flow in the long term. Holding through is more critical than buying low.
Next, focus on which among BTC, ETH, SOL, and SUI have sustained net inflows and stable buying pressure, where incremental funds are going, and which side looks more like the next phase leader.
Bitcoin fell 3.4% in 24 hours to $77,400 #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 #Walsh emphasizes inflation risks, September rate hike expectations intensify
#Walsh emphasizes inflation risks, September rate hike expectations intensify Comparison and ranking of the underlying technology of the core public chain with other public chains in terms of security, scalability, development applications, and investment return value
✅ Security from high to low: Stacks > Bitlayer > CORE > Merlin
✅ Scalability from high to low: Merlin > CORE > Bitlayer > Stacks
✅ Development & application ecosystem potential from high to low: CORE > Merlin > Bitlayer > Stacks
3. Investment return scenario ranking for the next 3 years (divided into steady returns and flexible strategies)
Optimistic scenario: BTC bull market, BTC-Fi sector becomes the market mainline; Neutral scenario: sector oscillation and rotation; Pessimistic scenario: hotspot fades, funds withdraw.
1. Steady return ranking (suitable for medium to long-term holding)
① STX > ② Bitlayer > ③ CORE > ④ MERL
2. Flexible strategy ranking (bull market explosive power)
① MERL > ② CORE > ③ Bitlayer > ④ STX
Support: 0.017-0.020U (first support); 0.010-0.013U (deep range)
Resistance: 0.032U, 0.048-0.055U, 0.08UBTC encountered a pullback at $80,000. But honestly, what I’m most focused on isn’t this retracement. 👀
What really matters is whether, after the contract leverage is washed out, spot and ETF funds are willing and able to absorb the selling pressure. The surge to 80K was largely driven by short covering and squeezed positions pushing the speed; a sharp rebound doesn’t mean the base is solid. After the squeeze, the market will enter a more critical phase: high-level absorption and chip rotation.
Currently, key on-chain and exchange data to watch include: whether the perpetual funding rate is cooling down, if the open interest has decreased after liquidations, whether spot buying/ETF net inflows continue, and the depth of support in the 78K–80K range. On the macro side, Wash mentioned inflation risks, September rate hike expectations, and the strong dollar/real yields on U.S. Treasuries—all pressuring risk asset valuations. So, the correlation between BTC and gold, as well as changes in stablecoin total supply, are also worth monitoring.
If the pullback doesn’t break key zones and volume shrinks while price stabilizes, it indicates chips are being absorbed, and only then can we talk about retesting previous highs. If ETFs turn to net outflows and leverage quickly ramps back up, it’s just a new group standing guard. Strategically, don’t chase the impulse; hold core positions, keep stablecoins ready for confirmation, and don’t mistake short-term spikes for trends.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $BTC Large capital is accelerating its entry into the crypto space
The institutional structure is different from previous cycles. BTC and ETH remain the core holdings, but traditional brokers/custody channels are bringing SOL, AVAX, LINK, XRP, and others into a broader investment funnel; platforms like Schwab, once opened to millions of clients, shift asset coverage from "internal crypto rotation" to "wealth management options." Spot ETF flows are also crucial; recently, BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP have shown signs of capital inflow, indicating that it's not a single coin draining funds but a reallocation of risk budgets.
However, the macro environment is not cooperating: Walsh emphasizes inflation risks, with September rate hike/high interest rate expectations suppressing liquidity. Gold and the dollar continue to compete for safe-haven funds, and BTC's "digital gold" correlation will be repeatedly tested. On-chain data and ETFs confirm demand, but price rhythm depends on actual US Treasury yields and stablecoin supply growth.
In the short term, it looks more like "institutional expansion + selective accumulation," not a blanket altcoin season. Operationally, core positions hold BTC/ETH, flexible positions monitor SOL/XRP/AVAX/LINK trading and pullback depth, and stablecoins are reserved for volatility. Don't equate channel openings with immediate rallies; opening the gateway is a slow variable, while position sizing and stop-losses are near-term variables.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Writing 🔥 5U挑战计划 · 第三天 周末到了，感觉又成了山寨币的狂欢时间。 昨天偷懒没做几单，所以今天账户依旧停留在 7.16U。 不过没想到海力士终于给了一波行情，冲到 1255，刚好让我套利一下😄 小资金慢慢滚，先把本金做起来！ 🟠 $BTC｜周末不急着出手 周末BTC虽然依旧有成交量，但我个人认为目前并不是特别舒服的做单位置。 周末行情经常就是： 蠕动 + 插针 + 快速收回。 如果不能一直盯盘，很容易出现： 👉 止盈没打到 👉 止损先被扫 👉 回头发现方向其实没错😂 我的判断依旧是： BTC大概率还会去测试8万。 而 80000 是后面能不能继续打开上行空间的关键位置。 但如果出现放量跌破 76000，那就别犟了： 该跑就跑。 🔴 $BICO｜继续等空点 $BICO 昨晚又拉了一波，目前在 0.024附近震荡。 我挂了一个 0.0245限价空单，3倍杠杆。 逻辑还是之前那套： 我暂时不认为BICO已经完成反转。 每次市场开始集体唱多，甚至多空比明显偏向多头的时候，我反而会开始警惕。 所以这次还是： 🎯 进场：0.0245附近 🛑 止损：0.025 $BTC BTC (Total position 6%) short-term contract (valid for 8 hours)
Price: 76900 (±50)
Direction: Long
Initial position: 3% of position
Leverage: Contract 10-50x
Add position: 75900 (±50) (3% of position)
Target: 78400-79900
Stop loss: 74200
BTC (Total position 6%) short-term contract (valid for 8 hours)
Price: 79200 (±50)
Direction: Short
Initial position: 3% of position
Leverage: Contract 10-50x
Add position: 80200 (±50) (3% of position)
Target: 77700-76200
Stop loss: 81500$ENSO +763%. It looks like a judgment of becoming a legend, but actually it's 50 times multiplied by 0.117. If the principal is enough to buy a watch, the profit is enough to buy a watch strap.
Many orders placed at 0.7675, now at 0.8847. The entry conditions were really ugly but solid: the pullback didn't break the previous low, volume shrank on the 15-minute chart, and sell orders were placed but no one took them. All three conditions appeared together, so I entered. Didn't calculate a target, didn't think about where it would go tonight, just wrote down one number—below 0.7675, if broken, then exit.
Currently holding the position, no changes. Thin market small coins go up not by dumping but by no one selling. So 70% of the profit in this trade came from liquidity, 30% from not being reckless. Tomorrow might give back 60%, but the logic still holds because the exit standard has never been "enough profit," but "structure is broken." $BTC $ETH