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The Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, and Bitcoin's 26% gain may face a test. Bitcoin has risen about 26% in the past month, with one key underlying logic being the market's bet on a weaker dollar. However, recent signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh may pour cold water on this rally.
Walsh believes the era of "cheap money" is coming to an end. With accelerating economic growth and continued capital attraction in fields like artificial intelligence, rising demand for funds may keep interest rates high rather than continuing to decline.
The market has already started to react. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.26%, approaching a nearly 19-year high, and the 10-year yield also climbed to 4.76%. High interest rates mean holding cash and bonds can yield higher returns, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin, which does not generate interest.
Therefore, what the market really needs to be cautious about in September may not be short-term dollar fluctuations, but whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a high interest rate environment. If rate expectations continue to rise, Bitcoin's previous 26% gain may face greater downward pressure. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 Strategy bought 4,603 Bitcoin for 370 million USD, the first BTC purchase since June 22 last year 🚨
Strategy purchased 4,603 BTC for 369.7 million USD, with an average price of 80,318 USD per Bitcoin. The company also increased its USD cash by 30 million USD and repurchased 151.8 million USD worth of STRC shares.
As of August 30, Strategy holds 845,050 BTC with a total purchase value of 63.73 billion USD (average price 75,412 USD/BTC), along with 6.71 billion USD in cash assets (USD). 💵
$BTC The current crypto market is in a high-level oscillation phase of "rapid rise in August followed by a digestion period in September," overall weak and not a continuation of a healthy bull market.
BTC is tugging between $77,000 and $79,000, having surged above $81,000 in August but failing to hold. The weekend rebound accompanied by a flattening spot CVD is a bear-covering rebound rather than anactive spot market attack. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults BTC rose nearly 24% in August, why did it leave gold and US stocks behind?
The biggest winner in August was neither gold nor the Nasdaq driven by Nvidia, but BTC.
BTC rose about 24% in a single month, gold rose about 9%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq only about 3% and 4% respectively.
Three forces combined behind this rally.
First, the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, and the market began trading "lower yields, weaker dollar," benefiting both BTC and gold from currency depreciation trades. Second, large inflows reappeared in the US spot BTC ETF, with institutional buying returning. Third, heavy short positions earlier meant that once the price broke through, a short squeeze further amplified the gains.
But BTC outperforming gold indicates the market is trading more than just a safe haven.
Gold mainly benefits from central bank buying, US dollar credit, and geopolitical risks; BTC, in addition to these, also has layers of regulatory improvements, ETF funds, and high Beta characteristics.
When risk appetite returns, BTC’s elasticity is naturally greater than gold’s.
However, don’t just look at the impressive 24% monthly gain.
BTC still failed to firmly hold above $80,000 by the end of the month, while Warsh at Jackson Hole reiterated inflation concerns, raising market expectations for a September rate hike again. BTC is currently still fluctuating around $78,000.
So what September really needs to verify is:
If the dollar and US bond yields strengthen again, and BTC can still hold most of August’s gains, it would indicate this rally has shifted from a short squeeze to genuine capital support. $BTC Before the non-farm payrolls, $BTC is stuck at 78550! This week, first passing the ADP and ISM hurdles
Just checked the market, BTC is hovering around 78350, Ethereum at 2460. August saw a 23% gain, outperforming gold $XAU, but September's start is not easy.
After Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 34% to 60%. This Wednesday is ADP, Thursday ISM services, and Friday non-farm payrolls with expected new jobs of 58,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, one after another.
On such data-intensive days, the biggest mistake is to treat a single-day bullish candle as a trend that has already started. Now BTC hovering at 78350 is waiting for the non-farm payrolls to set the direction.
Focusing on the intermediate variable: if the 10-year US Treasury yield stays above 4.75, it indicates rate hike expectations remain. BTC pulling back to 77000 without breaking it is when to consider going long. If it stagnates near 80000, do not add positions.
Before Waller's speech on Thursday night, I will update the subsequent data and position changes internally.
#EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Warsh's policy stance under scrutiny $ETH Woke up in the middle of the night, sleep was instantly crushed by the big cookie 📈
BTC stands above 79,000, ETH returns to 2,500. I kept adding short positions from 63,500 up to 73,680, the more I added, the more it rose, suspecting I became fuel for the bulls 😮💨
"If I don’t get liquidated, it won’t drop, right?"
Is it really going to 100,000? Then I’ll keep adding shorts from 80,000, I don’t believe the high can hold for long.
Market logic👇
▫️ Macro: The probability of a rate hike by the Fed jumps to over 65%, a week packed with employment data is about to test the Fed’s stance
▫️ Correlation: BTC and gold move together in a "dollar depreciation trade," spot buying stubbornly resists hawkishness
▫️ Catalyst: Broadcom reports after market on 9/2, Dell takes over, AI returns get tested again, risk appetite can flip anytime
High-level consolidation + macro chain hammer, bears might just be waiting for a fuse 🎯
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 🟠 MARKET MORNING | BTC: After the rise, risks are being repriced. BTC still stands near $78,000 today, with a cumulative gain of nearly 25% in August. But entering September, the market's focus is no longer on "how much more it can rise," but on whether this round of rally can be sustained by sustained capital. MarketWatch +1 (1) Liquidity: Institutional demand remains, but marginal cooling US spot BTC ETF funds remain positive, but recent inflows have slowed significantly; Data from August 31 shows some ETFs saw slight net outflows. Farside Investors +1 (2) Macro: More uncertainty in September US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.78%, oil prices broke through $91, and the market is once again concerned about inflation and interest rate pressures. For a highly volatile asset like BTC, this is not a risk to be ignored. Reuters (3) Is investing now risky? Yes, and I believe short-term risks are significantly higher than in early August. BTC has just experienced a sharp rise; chasing near the $80,000 resistance zone can easily lead to profit-taking. My strategy: don't chase the rally, invest in batches, and keep cash. If you already hold BTC, you can continue to monitor cash flow and key support; if you plan to open new positions, it's better to invest in batches rather than all at once. 👉 **Truly worth discussing: Is BTC currently in the bull market mid-market, or risk revaluation after the rally? **$BTC The most worthwhile thing to review in this round wasn't whether SK Hynix rose in the end, but how a logically logical low long position was gradually dragged into a margin defense battle by old positions, increased positions, and hesitation.
@多多不梭哈 At the open, he still held an uncomfortable $ZEC position, but was already waiting for Korea to open for Hynix. Two markets and two sets of logic occupied funds simultaneously, and he quickly found himself in a passive position: if ZEC didn't break even, he couldn't free up enough margin; When an opportunity arose for SK Hynix, he feared he wouldn't have a position. The problem wasn't just direction from the start, but that the account left no room for mistakes.
His benchmark assessment of SK Hynix is biased. The reason is not simply "semiconductors will rise," but rather that even if overall capital flows out of the Korean market, semiconductor and AI sectors will still support it; combined with Micron's strong bias, he believes SK Hynix has the potential to open higher and continue to rise. Therefore, before and after the open, he repeatedly emphasized that SK Hynix is not suitable for chasing shorts lightly; pullbacks actually feel more like a bullish watch zone.
But he repeatedly pointed out the most dangerous aspect of this trade: Hynix hadn't fully kept up with Micron before, and the Korean market opening itself could experience dramatic swings of three or four points, making it hard to set stop-losses. If it's too close, the opening needle sweeps away instantly; If it's too far, the risk of a single trade exceeds the account's tolerance. When a trade can't even clearly explain "what went wrong," the most reasonable approach isn't to cancel the stop-loss but to shrink the position so that even if it's wrong, it won't hurt much.
But the reality in the livestream was the opposite. After SK Hynix pulled back, he repeatedly replenished his position, saying "add more when it drops," but his account was burdened with heavier sharesThe liquidation distribution in the Bitcoin contract market is quietly changing the rhythm of the long-short game. Early this morning, the price quickly fell from $79,400 to around $76,900, then rapidly recovered by a thousand points, climbing back above $78,500. This intense fluctuation has caused open interest to continuously rise, with shorts increasing their positions noticeably faster than longs, resulting in more short liquidations accumulating above.
If the price rises another $2,000 from the current level, it will trigger about $1.05 billion in short liquidations; conversely, if it falls $2,000, it will activate about $620 million in long liquidations. Comparing the two, short positions clearly dominate, which sets the stage for a "short squeeze" scenario. However, it is worth noting that this morning's dip did not effectively flush out longs, but rather provided an opportunity to buy at lower levels.
In my view, the rapid rally seems somewhat rushed and lacks the support of sideways consolidation, casting doubt on its sustainability. This movement resembles institutions using the pretext of a short squeeze to actually distribute positions, so I would choose to reduce holdings or try shorting at higher levels. The key observation point remains whether $79,400 can be effectively broken through. Consolidation is the foundation for launching a major trend; without a foundation, it is difficult to go far. $BTC
Risk warning: The contract market is highly volatile, and liquidation data changes dynamically. This article is for market observation only and does not constitute any investment advice.Saylor strikes again! $370 million back into $BTC, but this time the script is different
Don't believe the nonsense that "Bitcoin crashes when Saylor collapses." Yesterday, he spent another $370 million, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318.
MSTR now holds 845,050 BTC, valued at 63.7 billion, with an average cost basis lowered to $75,412, finally showing a paper profit. The stock price also rose 1.65%.
This time Saylor has learned his lesson; instead of issuing debt to buy aggressively, he raised $600 million by selling common stock and then spent $150 million to repurchase preferred shares, optimizing the capital structure. In the summer, he actually sold in three rounds, totaling $544 million to cover holes. Now MSTR’s stock price has dropped over 60% in a year, and shareholders are pressing hard. This move back looks more like "averaging down to save himself" rather than reckless leverage.
My judgment: Saylor is definitely the most hardcore long-term BTC bull, but his buying and selling rhythm now acts as a market sentiment thermometer. If he dares to buy, it means there are buyers below $79,000; if he sells again, that’s a warning.1. Current Market Status 1. September started with a sustained high-level consolidation, BTC maintained a range of 77,500-79,500, U.S. Treasury yields rising to suppress the market, amplifying the amplitude, and overall trading was average. 2. Sector Divergence: BTC is highly resilient to declines, with market share rising; ETH and most altcoins are weak; Small-cap Meme coins experienced local impulses with poor rotation continuity, leading to rapid pullbacks. 3. The core market anchors remain U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and upcoming nonfarm payroll data, with macroeconomic factors dominating the market. 2. Main Events Today 1. U.S. Treasury yields rise: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose and increased the cost of holding risk assets, serving as the main factor weighing down the day. 2. Nonfarm Payroll Countdown: August nonfarm payroll data to be released this Friday is the biggest catalyst for the week. The strength of the data directly changes expectations for Fed rate cuts, and the market is generally cautious and unwilling to bet on the direction in advance. 3. ETF Funds: Spot ETF inflows have clearly slowed, institutions are cautious at high levels, buying pressure has weakened, and there is no large-scale exodus. 4. Industry Commentary: CZ publicly stated that the crypto industry has weathered the winter and is optimistic about RWA asset tokenization, which is sentiment-level and has limited impact on the market. 5. Regional Policies: Russia's crypto cross-border transfer policy has only had regional impacts and has limited impact on global markets. III. Contracts & Funds Signals 1. Funding rates are slightly bullish, not entering an extreme frenzy range; 24-hour two-way pin risk remains, and leveraged bulls are easily liquidated. 2NVIDIA bets $3.5 billion on MediaTek! $NVDA Did you understand this move?
Brothers, NVIDIA spent $3.5 billion to buy convertible bonds of MediaTek. On the surface, it's an investment, but essentially it's for self-defense—you can develop your own chips, but you have to use my NVLink Fusion and connect to my rack-level AI factory.
Even if Amazon and Google make their own chips, those chips still have to "speak NVIDIA's language," be compatible with its architecture and interconnect standards. While NVIDIA gives up manufacturing rights, it locks down the definition rights.
Looking at the K-line: 220 is horizontal at the Bollinger middle band, MACD is converging, RSI at 55. Resistance is at 224-226 above, support at 216-218 below.
Objective view: This investment has little short-term impact, but the long-term narrative is changing—from selling GPUs to becoming the platform that defines data center interconnect standards.
Trading strategy:
Conservative: wait for a pullback to 216-218 to go long; aggressive: enter long near the current price.
Remember, when everyone is making chips, the one who sets the interconnect standards is the ultimate winner. Follow Zhao Gongming to help you understand the strategic layout behind AI giants. #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The market has returned to a familiar rhythm. Now, every day there are one or two coins that can rise by thirty to forty points, which indicates that the liquidity of altcoins is returning. This is a good thing. I don't really like to play mainstream coins because most of the time they don't have much movement. Today, two altcoins surged sharply, namely $ARB and $USELESS. I had already shorted $ARB before, and now I plan to short $USELESS. —————————————————— $USELESS is a Meme coin. The promotional angle of this coin is that "the usefulness of uselessness is the greatest use." Because many people think Meme coins are useless, but many others disagree, so this coin was created. Let's take a look at its contract data. We can see that around 9 PM last night, its contract long-short ratio suddenly spiked once. At that time, the price of $USELESS had not risen much yet. So, I personally speculate that a speculative fund might have entered last night. Currently, its contract long-short ratio has dropped to a very low level, and the open interest has increased. This means that its recent rise has attracted a lot of shorts. Under these circumstances, I believe the power balance between longs and shorts has reached a turning point, and it's time for a pullback. —————————————————— In summary, I think now is a good time to short. I have already shorted $USELIf your account is under 10,000 U, don't rush to go all in; first understand these 4 points before proceeding
This may sound harsh, but I have to say — you might not be unable to make money, you just haven't learned how to avoid losses yet.
What small capital fears most is never slow profits, but treating trading like gambling. Watching the market for over ten hours daily, chasing highs and selling lows, holding on stubbornly after losses, the account keeps shrinking. The problem isn't lack of effort, but that the direction was wrong from the start.
For small capital to grow slowly, it's not about hitting a big win, but repeatedly doing simple things correctly. The following 4 points are what I truly understood after experiencing pitfalls myself.
First: Before choosing coins, look at the trend.
When the daily MACD shows a golden cross, you can add to your watchlist; if the golden cross is above the zero line, it indicates stronger momentum. No matter how hot the news is, wait for the price to confirm first.
Second: When holding positions, don't let emotions control you.
If the price stays above key moving averages, patiently hold; once it breaks down effectively, exit promptly. Don't change your plan because of a single candlestick.
Third: Before entering, wait for conditions to be met.
Don't rush in without a volume breakout. Act only after key levels are firmly held, then take profits in batches, pocketing some gains first.
Fourth: Stop losses must be decisive; hesitating even a second can cost you more.On August 31, Strategy disclosed: last week (August 24 to 30), it spent $369.7 million to increase its holdings by 4,603 bitcoins, at an average price of about $80,318.
This is the company's first move in more than two months. The last time they increased holdings? From June 15 to 21, they only bought 520 coins—almost symbolic.
Interestingly, just the day before, Michael Saylor posted two words on X:
“We‘re Back.”
Then on Monday, the filing was made.
🧊 Let's first review Bitcoin's performance in August.
What was the market like in early to mid-August?
Bitcoin was repeatedly tugging within a range of $62,000 to $65,000, with volatility dropping to historic lows. On August 14, it hit the month's low of about $62,570. The market was lifeless, moving sideways for a full six weeks.
Then what happened?
On August 19, Bitcoin surged over 8% in a single day. Shorts liquidated $1.44 billion in one day, with $1.29 billion of that occurring within one hour. The total market liquidation was $3.26 billion.
Within three days, BTC soared from around $64,000 to over $77,000.
On August 25, Bitcoin officially broke through $80,000, reaching a three-month high. It then surged to $81,473.
Throughout August, Bitcoin rose about 25%-30%, marking the best August performance since 2017.
From fear to extreme greed, it only took six days.
That's the market—for when you don't believe it, it's already run.
Now, let's look at Strategy's actions.
They bought from August 24 to 30 at an average price of $80,318.
What does this mean?
Strategy did not bottom-fish in the $64,000 range.
They chased Bitcoin after it broke $80,000.
This is not a left-side bottom buy, not dollar-cost averaging, not "buying the dip."
This is adding on after trend confirmation.
More notably: this round of buying was at a price higher than the company's average holding cost (about $75,400). Management has a clear margin of safety judgment at the current price, rather than passively executing a dollar-cost averaging plan.
They are not "forced to buy," they "believe they should buy."
Why now?
Note a detail: the funds for this purchase came from the MSTR stock ATM program—simultaneously selling 4.53 million common shares, net raising about $602.8 million.
They did not use convertible bond leverage or preferred stock discount financing.
They used common stock.
What does this mean? The market gave them a window—the MSTR stock price rebounded with Bitcoin, financing costs were controllable, and they decisively pulled the trigger.
Also, this $370 million scale is relatively low for the year.
They are still holding bullets.
In June, Strategy was forced to deviate from the "never sell coins" principle—when Bitcoin dropped to $58,500, they sold about $544 million in three summer tranches to meet financial obligations.
They sold at the bottom.
Then on August 21, when Bitcoin surged over 23% in one day and returned near $79,000, Strategy's holding market value again exceeded cost.
Only then did they dare to add positions again.
Even the most steadfast Bitcoin bulls wait until their holdings are in profit before acting.
Why would you go all-in at $64,000?
If even Strategy—the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with 845,000 coins worth about $65.9 billion—waits for breakout confirmation before adding positions,
it means they believe $80,000 is not the end.
But they are controlling the pace—$370 million, relatively low for the year, holding ammunition.
They are not in a hurry. They know what they are waiting for.
Strategy did not bottom-fish at $64,000; they chased the breakout at $80,000.
This is not chasing highs; this is a trend trader pulling the trigger after confirming the breakout.
Six weeks of sideways, no one dared to move.
Three days of surge, everyone is asking "Can I still get on?"
The answer is simple: even the most knowledgeable about Bitcoin only got on after the vehicle started moving.
The key is—once the vehicle moves, will you get on?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 The 24-hour increase is about +40.5%, and the search popularity has also surged significantly.
If you only look at the price, many people would directly conclude: the funds have returned, $ARB is about to take off. But after reviewing the fund data, my first reaction is not to chase,
but rather: in this surge, who is selling and who is buying? This is the most interesting part. In the past 24 hours, among $ARB large holders' transactions, about 65% were sales;
among top traders, sales accounted for about 71%. If we narrow the time frame to the last hour, the signal is even clearer: about 86% of large holders are selling,
and about 80% of top traders are also leaning towards selling. In other words, the price is skyrocketing,
but the big money is not showing a "buying frenzy" behavior. This kind of market is the easiest for retail investors to misjudge. Because what you see is a price increase,
but what the big money sees might be a window for cashing out. Those who bought chips at low prices earlier, seeing the rising popularity, are more willing to sell to later buyers.
And those entering later interpret the surge as a "trend confirmation." Thus, the market shows a very typical structure: old chips are being sold, new sentiment is taking over. So what is most worth observing about $ARB now is not how much it has risen,
but whether the buying power in this round is strong enough. If the price continues to rise,
and the selling pressure from large holders begins to weaken, it indicates the market is truly re-pricing ARB. But if after the price spikes, large holders keep selling and the popularity gradually declines,
then this wave looks more like a chip transfer completed by leveraging sentiment. That is$ARB 【ARB: No new positive news, yet suddenly surged 33%】
As of 10:29 (UTC+8), BTC only rose 0.49%, ETH rose 1.77%, but ARB reached 0.11299, with a 24-hour increase of about 32.9%; OP, also an L2, rose about 10.1%. This indicates there is indeed sector momentum in the market, but ARB's increase far exceeds the sector average, more like a concentrated rush of funds.
What’s really worth watching is not the price increase, but the position size: ARB perpetual contract open interest (OI) rose from about 4.38 million last night to a high of about 9.09 million, nearly doubling. Meanwhile, the funding rates for the last three periods have been continuously negative, yet the price has kept rising—the shorts have not disappeared, but have instead become fuel for the rally.
But every yin has its yang. After peaking at 0.12087, the price retraced during the 10 o’clock hour, with OI simultaneously dropping about 6.7%; the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are both above 80. The most intense phase of the first short squeeze may have passed.
My judgment: Above 0.107, treat it as strong turnover first; only by firmly reclaiming 0.1176 is there a chance to retest 0.1209. If it falls below 0.105, the structure begins to loosen; losing 0.100 would look more like a peak retreat.
Currently, no single new catalyst has been found today to verify this move. Recent Elara upgrades and ZK settlement routes provide narrative but are insufficient to explain this big bullish candle.
So here’s the question: Do you think this is the start of L2 rotation, or a short-term short squeeze without positive support?The biggest change for Dogecoin this year is that it is becoming less dependent on Elon Musk for rescue.
In the past, almost every surge was ignited by a single word from Musk, but the script has been rewritten for 2026: In January, the first SEC-approved $DOGE spot ETF launched on Nasdaq, with similar products from Grayscale and Bitwise already in the market; in March, the SEC and CFTC classified it as a digital commodity, removing the long-standing securities dispute. The successor is not a new internet celebrity, but a set of institutional forces—led by the House of Doge under the foundation, multiple listed companies raised hundreds of millions of dollars to establish an official treasury; developers are also pushing a proposal to cut block rewards by 90%, directly targeting the inflation weakness.
Interestingly, X Pay's April public beta only supports fiat currency, excluding Dogecoin. The biggest positive was missed but did not crush the market, precisely indicating that the era of relying on one person’s hype is ending. How far it can go from now on depends on institutional funding and payment implementation, not a single tweet. Musk remains an amplifier but is no longer the engine.
The ones who can "rescue" Dogecoin are no longer celebrities but this institutional infrastructure of ETFs, regulatory classification, and treasury companies; and X Pay excluding Dogecoin from the first phase actually proves its break from personal dependence.The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, with the Dow down 0.7%, the Nasdaq down 0.12%, and the S&P 500 down 0.33%. However, the semiconductor and memory sectors bucked the trend, with SanDisk rising over 5%, and Micron and SK Hynix up more than 2%.
In the same market, it's a tale of two extremes.
What’s falling? The U.S. and Iran clashed again in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude oil above $90. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations increase, and so do rate hike expectations—CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 65.4%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 4.75%, hitting a new high since January 2025. Rate-sensitive sectors are under broad pressure.
What’s rising? SanDisk just signed five-year long-term agreements with eight customers totaling $93.9 billion. AI storage demand is not just a concept; it’s real, solid orders. The market is saying: macro is weak, but AI is strong.
My judgment is clear: the AI hardware sector is unaffected by rate hikes.
The U.S.-Iran conflict will pass, oil prices will fall back, and the rate hike cycle will end. But AI computing power demand is a structural trend that won’t disappear just because the Fed raises rates a few times. Memory chips, AI servers, semiconductor equipment—these are the directions truly supported by fundamentals.
The Nasdaq can fall, but AI money hasn’t stopped.
Have you allocated to storage in this wave? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇Rate cut? No one is buying it
What the market is talking about now: whether to raise by 25 basis points on September 16
Current rate 3.50%–3.75%
Latest CME FedWatch data shows about a 67% chance of a rate hike
About 33% chance of no change
Near zero chance of a rate cut
//
Kalshi and Polymarket are slightly lower, with just over 50% chance of a hike, and 40% chance of no change
Let me make one thing clear
67% is not the Fed's decision
It's the market betting
A week ago this number was only 35%
After the Jackson Hole speech, it jumped to 57% in one day
Then oil prices rose, short-term bond yields also went up, pushing it above 60%
The market itself hasn't settled on this after a 20 percentage point swing in a month
I personally think there will be a hike
The reason is simple
This round of oil price increase is not driven by demand, but by geopolitical risk
What does the Fed fear most? Inflation expectations running away
As long as oil prices don't come down, Powell will find it hard to choose no change in September, because no change means telling the market: we can accept energy inflation
He can't say that, but if August nonfarm payrolls suddenly collapse, that would be a different story
A rate hike colliding with a recession would make the market look much worse than now
Next, watch three things: nonfarm payrolls, inflation data, oil prices
If employment cools down, the chance of a rate hike will drop; if oil prices keep rising, this number will go even higher
Don't take sides prematurely, follow the data. $CL $SOL $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 From the monthly chart perspective, if BTC undergoes a significant correction, October and November are more likely.
Currently, the single candlestick in August closing bullish has become a fact, and the active trading volume has increased significantly compared to July.
Based on the delta divergence principle we mentioned earlier, this clearly does not apply here, so the probability of a direct correction/drop in September is low; most likely, September will mainly experience high-level consolidation.
If September closes with the candlestick and corresponding delta values shown in the figure below, then a correction at the monthly level in October/November becomes possible.#英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元
Recently, a heavyweight deal broke out in the semiconductor circle: Nvidia invested $3.5 billion to subscribe to MediaTek convertible bonds, using capital to bind the two companies in a long-term AI collaboration.
Many people's first reaction might be that it's contradictory, as MediaTek itself is making cloud vendor-customized AI chips, theoretically a potential competitor to Nvidia. But the core logic of this investment is very clever: even if major companies develop their own XPU chips to replace GPUs in the future, these customized chips will still need to connect to Nvidia's NVLink interconnect ecosystem, meaning the underlying standard for computing clusters remains controlled by Nvidia.
The two sides have locked in three major cooperation tracks: cloud-customized computing chips, AI PC terminals, and in-vehicle intelligent computing. Nvidia is no longer just making money by selling GPUs but is transforming into providing a complete AI infrastructure; MediaTek gains top-tier interconnect technology and smoothly enters the high-value data center track.
From a market perspective, this news continues to strengthen the long-term optimistic outlook for the global AI computing power industry chain. It is favorable for the medium- to long-term logic of the entire semiconductor and AI assets, while short-term market trends still depend on liquidity and volatility caused by interest rate expectations.🔥 IS BTC BECOMING A REAL "DIGITAL GOLD" OR IS IT JUST A TEMPORARY DEBASEMENT TRADE, AND IS THE MEME 🐸 MISINTERPRETING THE STORY? There is a question that I find increasingly interesting after Bitcoin's surge: has Bitcoin finally become "Digital Gold"... or is the market just trading a short-term debasement trade? These two concepts sound very similar. But in reality... completely different. And that difference could decide: ₿ BTC 🤖 AI Tokens 🐸 Meme Coins for months to come. ⸻ 💣 DON'T MISTAKE "DIGITAL G814 short ZEC trapped, I realized
Shorted at 814, now at 855, yesterday it went up to 879.
Floating loss of 41U each, not much money, but it hurts the pride.
What was I thinking at the time?
RSI was overbought, price deviated nearly 50% from the 30-day moving average, what else to short?
But the result is, ZEC doesn't care about BTC's mood at all, BTC was consolidating at 78000, while it surged straight to 879.
And this move was mainly driven by futures, futures trading volume reached nearly 10 billion, shorts were liquidated over 10 million in one day.
I am just one of those liquidated, just haven't been blown up yet, still holding on.
Another thing, 31% of ZEC is locked in shielded pools, exchanges have little supply, so small funds can push it flying.
So often you see "a single surge up", it's not the market makers messing with you, there's really no supply.
Now at 855, I'm still holding.
If it can't break 880, there might still be a chance
You think it's waiting for a pullback, but actually it's waiting to cut your losses.
#ZEC #ShortTrapped #ETF #FuturesTrading #OKX Planet Many people only look at K-lines and ignore the behavior of the miner community. Miners are the natural sellers of BTC, and their transfer flows are very critical signals for the long-term cycle.
From CryptoQuant observations: $BTC miners' net outflows to exchanges have not surged explosively, and there is no panic dumping like at the end of the bear market; however, some old miner wallets have started small batch transfers. ETH staking exit flows remain moderate, with no large-scale unstaking dumps; $ETC has slight fluctuations in hash rate, with no short-term selling pressure.
Arkham tracked some miner-associated wallets and found that transfers are not one-time dumps to exchanges but moved to private cold wallets, indicating internal chip migration rather than direct selling.
Unique insight: miners not dumping ≠ guaranteed price increase; miners stopping selling is a bottom condition but not a condition for a rise. Currently, it is a "hold and watch" phase, and there is no miner signal for full bullishness yet.
#BTC high-level consolidation, with enhanced linkage to gold
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under further scrutiny
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Macro Observation | Over 40 Years of Bull Market in Bonds Reverses, Lacy Hunt Massively Exits Long Bonds
Known as the "Commander-in-Chief of Wall Street's Bond Bulls," Lacy Hunt has ended his 40-year bullish stance on long-term U.S. Treasuries and officially turned bearish on long-term U.S. debt. His Hoisington fund has made an extreme portfolio adjustment, reducing the bond duration from about 21 years in September last year to less than 1 year by June this year, switching almost all long bond positions to cash and short-term bonds.
Hunt judges that the deflationary dividend brought by globalization over the past decades has ended. De-globalization, demographics, and massive fiscal deficits jointly push up the inflation baseline, which may remain in the 3.5-4.5% range for the long term. Pressure on long bonds will become a structural issue, and gold's value preservation ability may outperform long-term U.S. Treasuries.
A market veteran who has held firm for forty years completely overturning his original framework is itself more noteworthy than the viewpoint. This does not mean long bonds will collapse immediately but signals that the global interest rate environment has shifted. If high inflation persists, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts will be compressed, creating a chain of constraints on the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and crypto assets.
This logic aligns with the market logic of $KO Coca-Cola. Even if the long-term trend is stable, when external macro conditions structurally change, institutions will significantly adjust their holdings. Although Coca-Cola has a brand moat, when facing sugar taxes and changes in the consumption environment, institutions also reassess valuations. There is no forever unchanging bull or bear market; when the market environment changes, previously successful strategies will also fail. The market these past two days, to be honest, increasingly feels like a "wash out the bulls, then wash out the bears" scenario. And this bottoming phase might be more grueling than most people expect.
Let's first look at the capital side. After the SEC postponed multiple ETH spot ETF option decisions, market sentiment clearly took a hit, and volatility rose again. BTC has been tugged repeatedly around the 78,000 level, with long and short liquidation volumes exceeding $300 million for three consecutive days—a typical characteristic of a zero-sum game.
But there's an intriguing detail in the on-chain data: exchange BTC balances have dropped to a nearly five-year low, while stablecoin net inflows are slowly climbing. What does this indicate? Chips are moving from short-term traders to long-term holding wallets.
Meanwhile, ETH is relatively resilient in this context. On one hand, institutions like Bitmine continue accumulating; on the other, selling pressure from Grayscale's ETHE is nearly exhausted, improving marginal supply.
To be frank, at this point, bulls fear rate hikes, and bears fear missing out. My feeling is: there will still be short-term fluctuations, and it's not out of the question for BTC to dip again to 75,000 to test liquidity, but this seems more like part of a larger bottoming process rather than the start of a new trend.
In this kind of market, it's not about who predicts correctly, but who manages their position more steadily. Stretch out the pace of adding positions, lower leverage a bit, and set your expected timeline to over six months. Those repeatedly harvested are often not wrong about the direction but can't endure the noise during the process. Once this storm passes, the truly faithful capital will become the winners of the next wave.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Binance will launch Shein USDT Quanto perpetual contracts
Binance announced that it will launch USDT Quanto perpetual contracts based on Shein at 10:45 Beijing time on September 1, 2026, allowing users to trade the contracts with USDT as margin.
Shein is a global leading fast-fashion e-commerce platform and is not yet publicly listed on any traditional exchange. The launch of Shein perpetual contracts on Binance means the platform provides the market with a price exposure tool for Shein through derivatives, with the price anchored to Shein's fair value or OTC market expectations. The Quanto contract is designed to use USDT as margin, reducing exchange rate risk. This move is part of Binance's expansion of its stock-type perpetual contract product line, which previously included Tesla, Coinbase, and other underlying assets. The launch of this contract may provide investors with channels to speculate on or hedge Shein's valuation, but it should be noted that this contract is not based on stocks listed on traditional exchanges, and the price discovery mechanism may rely on market maker quotes or indices.
This event mainly affects the richness of Binance's own product offerings and trading volume, with no obvious direct transmission impact on mainstream crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, or traditional financial markets. If Shein is officially listed in the future, this contract may become an important reference tool, but the market impact is limited in the short term. A mysterious giant whale deposited 70,700 ETH to multiple exchanges over the past two days, worth $174 million.
It still holds 97,100 ETH, valued at $237 million. At the same time, Sun Ge redeemed 5,000 ETH from Lido, with 3,500 ETH going into Poloniex and 1,500 ETH deposited into Morpho. On-chain, he still holds 243,000 ETH, worth over $600 million, with a position larger than the Ethereum Foundation.
One is offloading, the other is adjusting positions.
70,000 ETH moving into exchanges, in batches, across multiple platforms, and in large amounts—these three characteristics together are standard signs of offloading. Sun Yuchen’s transaction is even more direct: 3,500 ETH into Poloniex, which is his own platform. The remaining 1,500 ETH deposited into Morpho seems like yield farming, but his base holding of 240,000 ETH has not moved.
What I mean is—this transaction is very likely an offload, not a position adjustment. A potential sell order worth $170 million puts considerable pressure on the market. 🚨 $ZORA LOOKS LIKE IT’S LOADING A SHORT SQUEEZE 👀
Something feels interesting here.
$ZORA is hovering around $0.00965 while volume is picking up, OI is climbing, and funding is still deeply negative.
That’s a spicy setup: if shorts get crowded and price starts pushing higher, forced closures could add fuel fast. 🔥
🎯 Entry: $0.00962
🚀 Target: $0.01047
🔥 Stretch: $0.01104
Watching this one closely. 👀
#DailyOrbit SUI unlocks 13.53 million today
My conclusion: SUI faces short-term supply pressure, but the "unlock + trading pair adjustment" is not enough for me to be outright bearish.
Today, Sui plans to unlock about 13.53 million SUI, worth approximately $9.73 million, accounting for about 0.33% of the currently released supply. Of this, about 7.47 million goes to early contributors, 4 million enters the community reserve, and about 2.07 million goes to the Mysten Labs Treasury.
At the same time, Binance will suspend SUI/BTC isolated margin lending on September 1 and remove this margin trading pair on September 3. Note: This is a trading pair adjustment, not a delisting of SUI spot.
The market tends to combine these two events into a "double negative," but I focus more on actual selling pressure. A 0.33% unlock is not huge; the real risk is whether the unlocked tokens flow significantly into exchanges and whether the price breaks recent support.
In this study, I also did not find sufficiently reliable, cross-verified new whale positions on SUI, so I won’t force ordinary transfers to be "whales shorting."
Holding around 0.70: continue to observe;
Reclaiming 0.75: indicates unlock pressure has been absorbed;
Breaking below 0.70 with a significant increase in net inflow to exchanges: then I turn cautious.
If the unlock really happens but the price does not fall, would you interpret it as "negative news priced in" or "selling pressure still unreleased"? Why?
#SUI #Sui #TokenUnlock The stop loss hangs there, and the price gradually closes. You stare at the screen, thinking: Wait a little longer, I'll definitely come back. Then it rebounds 0.3%, you breathe a sigh of relief, and casually push the stop loss down a bit. Three days later, it breaks below the new stop loss. You think, after dropping so much, this time it's really bottom. So you hold on. A month later, you cut your position. The loss is eight times the original stop loss amount. Are you familiar with this scene? Anyway, I do. More than once, not just one person—almost everyone who's entered this market has walked this path. We blame it on 'bad mindset' or 'poor execution,' and then repeat the next mistake. Actually, that's not the case. Taking orders isn't a personality issue; it's a factory brain setup. In short, you take on the deal because your brain is hijacked by the code "loss aversion." This code is written in the oldest region of the human brain and evolved millions of years later than rationality. It doesn't recognize logic, only one rule: the pain of losing 100 yuan is about 200 yuan earned to offset. The emotional intensity of the loss is twice that of the same return. That's why, when the price approaches stop-loss, what you experience isn't "I'm executing the plan," but "I'm going to give up, I'm going to lose"—the pain is amplified to twice as much, and rationality can't compete with it. Why: How does taking a deal happen step by step? Step one, stop loss approaches. The brain says: triggering a stop loss = a definite small loss + admitting mistake. Step two, the brain makes a sneak change. "Wait a little longer" = uncertain result + moreIchimoku (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) is generally considered a classic indicator developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda. Using the Ichimoku weekly indicator to assess the current stage of BTC.
In several historical cycles, after a bear bottom appears, the weekly golden cross usually lags by about 100 days. Now, the current golden cross is very close, and it has been about 60 days since the 58K stage low on June 30, 2026.
Historically, after the golden cross, there is usually an initial bull consolidation period, followed by a gradual transition into an upward consolidation trend.The market is very dull today, with $BTC fluctuating narrowly around 78,000. The biggest drivers in August are ETFs and short squeezes, both of which are now cooling down. In the next week or two, employment data and Federal Reserve statements will be more important than candlestick charts. Technically, as long as it doesn't break 76,000, the structure is still intact; once it breaks down with volume, watch out for 73,000. The forecast is that September will be a consolidation month, and in October we will see if it can ride a seasonal wave. Don't treat August as a trend. #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
The leader has something to say
This week, employment data is released intensively: JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls, one after another.
July nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000, May and June were revised down by 103,000, recruitment is cooling down. Wash's Jackson Hole speech was hawkish, emphasizing inflation above 2%, and financial conditions are not yet restrictive. After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike rose from 35% to nearly 60%, US Treasury yields rose, gold and BTC came under pressure. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The market is grappling with a contradiction: employment is cooling, but Wash is still fighting inflation. This week's data will decide which way rate hike expectations will swing.
BTC is around 77,000, continuing to hold short positions on ZEC. No heavy positions before the data is out.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, positions must have stop-loss orders set, good luck.Saylor didn't just hint; Strategy really bought 4,603 BTC
Yesterday Michael Saylor posted "We’re Back," and the market was still guessing whether Strategy was preparing to buy BTC again.
Today the answer is out.
Last week, Strategy officially purchased 4,603 BTC, spending about $370 million, with an average purchase price of $80,318. This is the company's first buy after about two months of pause.
But what's more interesting than "buying coins again" this time is where the money came from.
During the same period, Strategy sold about $603 million worth of MSTR stock, of which $369.7 million was used to buy BTC, $151.8 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, and the rest supplemented cash and paid dividends. In other words, Strategy is no longer blindly converting all financing into BTC but is managing between BTC, cash, and capital structure simultaneously.
This actually makes this increase in holdings more interesting.
In the past two months, Strategy once paused buying, even selling BTC and financing to supplement cash reserves. Now the USD reserves have reached $5.1 billion, plus another $1.61 billion in USD Cash. With a thicker balance sheet buffer, Saylor has started buying coins again.
Two signals are worth watching.
First, Strategy is willing to buy again around $80,000, indicating the company has not changed its long-term $BTC strategy despite earlier volatility. $SNDK Title (choose one)
🔥Got schooled by SNDK: technicals were all bearish, yet it still pumped to 1579
Main text
Last night’s move on SNDK really broke my defense💥
The 15-minute pre-market chart looked solidly bearish📉, with a large cluster of sell orders above 1500. I thought it was safe, expecting a dip to 1470 after the open.
But what happened? At 9:30 sharp, the market opened and shot straight up🚀, with no news or positive catalysts, forcibly pumping from 1480 to 1579.84.
My stop loss was set at 1499.8, just 0.2 below 1500, and it got triggered within a minute of the open😮💨. After the stop run, the price hovered above before slowly falling back.
To be clear, this wasn’t a fundamental-driven move, it was pure Gamma squeeze⚔️. Liquidity is at its worst in the first few minutes after open, so market makers can manipulate the price however they want, targeting short-term shorts who place stops at key levels. Once all the stops are cleared, their goal is achieved and the price naturally retreats.
Does technical analysis help? It does, but against such extreme liquidity conditions at open, technicals are just a piece of paper📄.
Currently, the price is consolidating around 1543. Heavy resistance lies between 1565‑1580⛰️, while support is at 1523‑1530; breaking below that would signal a deeper pullback.
I lost money this time but learned my lesson and set some rules for myself✅:
1️⃣ For high volatility assets, don’t hold heavy positions in the 15 minutes before open—that’s gambling, not trading.
2️⃣ Don’t place stop losses at obvious round numbers like 1500; those levels are specifically targeted for stop runs.
3️⃣ If the pre-market feels off, don’t hesitate—reduce your position first. Capital preservation is paramount.
The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks survivors.
⚠️Personal review only, not investment advice. Futures trading carries high risk; participate cautiously. 79,000 is neither the bottom nor the top, $BTC is "playing dead" waiting for a signal
BTC has been sideways near 79,000 for almost a week, unable to rise or break down. This is not a boring market, but the calm before the storm.
Glassnode's judgment today is quite sharp: BTC is currently in a "transition period." On one side, institutional ETFs are still seeing net inflows (420 million USD in real money over the past 5 days), on the other side, leverage has piled up to near recent highs, and more subtly, early profit holders have started quietly distributing. These three forces are pulling against each other; whichever wins first will determine the market's direction.
My view is clear: the funding rate is suppressed at a low 0.008%, indicating this wave is not driven by retail leverage but supported by spot holdings. In a spot-supported market, a drop is more likely to be absorbed. However, today the BLAKE2b hard fork went live, introducing technical uncertainties; on Deribit, call options from 80,000 to 100,000 USD have tens of billions in nominal positions stacked, so there will be intense volatility around the September options expiry.
Once the Non-Farm Payrolls on 9/4 are released, this lukewarm pot will either boil or cool down.⚙️ Why is upgrading the technical foundation a hundred times more important than short-term price fluctuations?
Performance improvements are the basis for scaling and applications:
Blockchain cannot rely solely on "hype" to support its market value. Every major upgrade of Bitcoin Core (such as verification speed enhancements) means optimization of network throughput and reduction of node operating costs. This is the fundamental basis for Bitcoin to support more on-chain assets, decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems, and even a global clearing system.
Iteration of open-source code is the true source of consensus:
Bitcoin has no CEO; its vitality comes from top global developers polishing the core code (Bitcoin Core) for decades without compensation. Every "feature freeze" and release is a strong proof of decentralized community governance and engineering strength.
Technical dividends determine the value floor, market sentiment determines the short-term ceiling:
Short-term surges and crashes are just ripples of capital games, while every breakthrough in underlying technology is the giant wave silently raising Bitcoin's value foundation. $BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Include the BTC‑ETH exchange rate in observation: a hidden leading indicator of altcoin market trends 📊
Most people only look at BTC.D but overlook the BTC/ETH exchange rate. This indicator indirectly reflects the allocation of funds within the mainstream, which in turn affects the survival environment of altcoins.
If BTC/ETH continues to rise, it means funds prefer BTC more, and ETH is neglected, making it difficult for most altcoins to experience major rallies; conversely, if BTC/ETH falls back, ETH receives more funding, providing better soil for altcoins.
Current market: $SOL can develop an independent trend partly due to its own ecosystem advantages and partly because ETH has not been completely abandoned by funds; the trends of ZEC and ENA do not consider the BTC‑ETH exchange rate at all, relying solely on short-term narratives and contract heat, and will be the first to be abandoned once mainstream funds tighten; DOGE completely breaks away from this logic and is purely driven by sentiment.
BTC.D reflects the overall market result, while the $BTC‑ETH exchange rate reflects internal fund choices. When BTC continuously crushes $ETH, even if some altcoins surge, caution should be maintained regarding the overall altcoin market.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 Robinhood wanted to do on-chain stocks, but users first turned it into a meme coin marketplace. On August 30, Robinhood Chain had its most active day since launch: processing about 5.52 million transactions in a single day, DEX turnover around $875 million, and on-chain app 24-hour revenue reached about $2.66 million, roughly double $ETH's app revenue during the same period, second only to $SOL. It should be clarified that the $2.66 million revenue comes from Robinhood Chain applications, not Robinhood itself. 1. The first to emerge was not tokenized stocks When Robinhood Chain launched, a very important direction was tokenization of stocks and on-chain finance. But reality is somewhat different. On August 30 alone, about 22,600 tokens were newly created through Pons. GMGN, Pons, and $UNI together contribute about 88% of app revenue, with GMGN and Pons themselves heavily dependent on meme coin trading. In other words, what truly boosts users, trading volume, and fees now is crypto trading that is most familiar to speculative trading. 2. The PMF the company wants may be completely different from the PMF users play with. This is the most interesting part of this matter. Robinhood originally wanted to bring traditional stocks and financial assets on-chain, but after users arrived, the first to prove strong demand was token issuance and meme tradingFundamental Research Report $UNI / Uniswap (DeFi) $3.20
Summary: Uniswap ($UNI) overall score 52/100, rating: Narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project Overview: Uniswap (token $UNI), DeFi sector. Leading DEX governance token. Competitors include CAKE, SUSHI. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction value $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized: no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing per PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales per whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level, not indicative of long-term VC holdings, technical integration per API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal strategic exchange investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn/buyback: no clear mechanism. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially, moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Uniswap $3.00B, CAKE undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. FDV: Uniswap $4.20B, CAKE undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. Annual revenue: Uniswap $2.00M, CAKE undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Uniswap undisclosed, CAKE undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario includes revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients, FDV aligns with top peers on P/S. Final conclusion: fundamentals solid (score 52/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Report concluded, please consider carefully.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit 🚨 AI isn’t just changing consulting — it’s breaking the business model that made billions.
Since the start of the year, Capgemini is down 31% and Accenture is down 27%.
This isn’t simply about a weak economy.
The bigger problem? AI is making “billable hours” and massive headcounts worth far less.
For decades, consulting firms made huge money by selling people’s time — more employees, more hours, more invoices.
#DailyOrbit There was already a surge before the market opened. On August 31, it closed at 1195 HKD, up 9.63%. Many people ask the same question: Should we still chase? $ZHIPU Here's the conclusion first: The direction is right, and quality is more important than growth rate. But this wave has already priced in part of the "successful structural shift + $1.6 billion ARR in August." What comes next is not about listening to stories, but verifying the slope. Don't get carried away by "revenue quadrupling." The real things to focus on are just three. 1. The real surprise in the interim report is not revenue, but the change in the books. First half numbers: • Revenue 954 million, year-on-year +399.7%, already exceeding the full year of 2025 • Net loss attributable to parent 2.071 billion, narrowed by 12.1% year-on-year • Adjusted net loss 1.964 billion, slightly expanded year-on-year • R&D 2.131 billion, year-on-year +33.6% • Overall gross margin dropped to 26.4% On the surface, growth is fast, still at a big loss, and gross margin declined. So some say "below expectations" — Bloomberg's H1 revenue expectation was about 1.35 billion, actual was only 954 million, so the books indeed didn't hit the mark. But the quality has changed. Open platform and API revenue was 825 million, soaring about 27 times year-on-year, increasing its share from about 15% last year to 86.5%. Localized deployment shrank significantly. Cloud gross margin turned from negative to positive at 24.6%. Token call volume increased more than 40 times since the beginning of the year, paid daily active users +603 Over the past week, the global market's spotlight has almost entirely focused on one person—Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. This new Fed chairman, who only took office in May this year, made his policy debut at the Jackson Hole annual meeting at the end of August. He didn't say much, but carried weight. The market generally interpreted his appearance as hawkish: he reiterated his 2% inflation target, bluntly stating, "If inflation does not fall clearly and quickly enough, the Fed still has work to do," and even made it clear—what the Fed truly cares about right now is price, not anything else. #就业数据密集公布, Wash's policy stance is being put to the test. But the problem lies here. Wash has given the market almost no "roadmap." He does not provide traditional forward-looking guidance, nor a fixed response function for "what data triggers rate hikes." He even deliberately said, "Standing here today, I promise a kind of discipline, not a specific decision." It sounds a bit roundabout, but the meaning is straightforward: don't rely on guessing a central bank word to set prices anymore; the power to judge is now back to the data. And now, the test has arrived. This week coincides with the intensive release of employment data, one after another, leaving almost no time for the market to catch its breath. On Tuesday, there were JOLTS job openings; on Wednesday, ADP private jobs; on Thursday, initial jobless claims; that day, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book; on September 3, Waller discussed inflation outlook; and finally, the August nonfarm payroll report at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on September 4. Among these datasets, the nonfarm payrolls are the finale and the first real "test" to test Wash's policy stance.Bitcoin Market Outlook: Don't Be Certain of a One-Way Rise or Fall, Understand Three Scenarios to See the Road Ahead
After a significant rebound, the market has reached a crossroads full of divergence. Within the community, two voices are everywhere: one group believes a new major bull run has begun and the market will continue to break upwards; the other remains cautious, thinking this is just a rebound and a deep correction will follow.
But the crypto market is never simply up or down. Often, it moves in wide-ranging, back-and-forth choppy trends. Rather than betting on a definite outcome, it's better to clarify several possible scenarios for the future, watch key signals, and prepare response plans for each market condition.
First, let's review the current underlying market situation. This wave of gains was partly driven by forced buying from short liquidations. A large number of short positions were liquidated, creating buying pressure that quickly pushed prices higher. After this short squeeze, most short positions have been cleared, and the power to drive prices up through liquidations has significantly weakened. To continue opening upward space, real new off-exchange capital must enter; relying solely on contract liquidations can no longer replicate the previous rapid surge.
Looking at ETF capital, earlier large net inflows strongly supported the rally, but recently inflows have slowed, with occasional single-day outflows. Institutional views have also diverged, no longer uniformly bullish. We cannot judge trend reversals by single-day inflows or outflows; we must look at the overall flow over a longer period. If ETFs return to sustained large net inflows, it will strongly support the market; if they continue net outflows, the pressure at high levels will quickly increase.
On-chain token holdings also show mixed signals. Short-term traders have transferred large amounts of coins to exchanges to take profits during this rebound, realizing gains; however, long-term whale addresses have not sold off massively and still hold their tokens firmly. Simply put, short-term players are taking profits and exiting, while long-term funds remain steadfast, with tokens exchanging hands at high levels.
If a large amount of long-term holders' tokens start flowing to exchanges, it signals increased risk; conversely, if many coins are withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets, it indicates long-term funds are still accumulating, providing strong support below.
In the futures market, open interest remains relatively high, and market leverage has not fully decreased. Many long positions chasing the rally have accumulated at high levels; if the market falls, it can trigger concentrated liquidations, accelerating the decline. Conversely, if the market pushes higher, it will continue to sweep away short orders above, causing short-term impulsive rallies. In a choppy environment, frequent spikes and stop-loss sweeps in both directions will become normal, and the risk of holding high-leverage overnight positions will be amplified.
Combining macro, capital, and token data, the market outlook can be roughly divided into three scenarios.
Scenario 1: Strong continuation, after consolidation another upward attack
This scenario requires: ETF capital returning to sustained net inflows, macro data signaling liquidity easing, the market holding key support, and a volume contraction pullback followed by renewed volume expansion and strength.
In this case, the market will continue to challenge resistance zones above, testing higher levels. But even in this scenario, a straight, mindless rally is unlikely; multiple large-scale pullbacks and shakeouts will occur to clear weak holders.
Realistic issue: If the rally is driven only by contract funds without incremental spot capital, the sustainability will be poor, and prices will likely fall quickly after peaking.
Scenario 2: Neutral baseline, long-term wide-range back-and-forth consolidation (relatively higher probability)
If incremental capital is insufficient and long-term holders do not massively exit, this pattern emerges. Prices will be pulled repeatedly within a range, with profit-taking selling after rallies and buying support after dips.
Candlesticks will show alternating big rises and falls, appearing to break out but quickly retreating; seeming to break down but rapidly recovering. Most of the time, the market grinds inside the range, repeatedly testing traders' patience.
This scenario is most frustrating for short-term traders: chasing highs leads to being trapped, selling lows triggers rebounds, and frequent trades easily erode capital through stop-losses and fees. Historically, September is a month with relatively high Bitcoin volatility and prone to choppy adjustments, so this scenario deserves close attention.
Scenario 3: Rebound ends, starting a deep correction
Trigger conditions: ETF capital continues net outflows, strong US economic data, market reprices high interest rates, many short-term holders sell off, and key support levels are effectively broken.
Once confirmed, the market will end the current rebound and begin a pullback to test stronger support zones below. The decline will not be a straight drop; it will include many bull traps and rebounds, with many mistaking rebounds for new rallies and blindly entering, only to be trapped again.
Facing these three different possibilities and various holding statuses, response strategies must differ.
For those holding spot positions, don't fantasize about selling at the highest point. If you already have good unrealized profits, consider taking profits in batches, locking in some gains while keeping a base position to observe market changes.
Don't stubbornly hold to the end, nor liquidate everything at once. Hold key supports you trust; if support holds, continue holding; if support breaks effectively, actively reduce positions rather than waiting for a V-shaped reversal.
For those currently out of the market, control the anxiety of missing out. Don't fear missing out when prices rise, nor rush to catch falling knives when prices drop. The crypto space never lacks the next opportunity; there's no need to force participation in every move. Patiently wait for clear stabilization signals or pullbacks to more favorable risk-reward zones before considering phased entries. When unsure, choosing to watch is also a good strategy.
For futures traders, leverage must be reduced at this stage. The current intense long-short battles and frequent spikes make high leverage vulnerable to stop-loss sweeps. Don't be subjectively certain of a rise or fall; don't heavily bet on one-sided moves. If you can't monitor the market overnight, avoid holding heavy positions during thin liquidity hours to prevent sudden spikes. When the market is unclear, resting with no position is also trading.
$BTC $ETH Crypto card monthly transaction volume breaks $1 billion, but security infrastructure lags behind
Gate Research data shows that in July, the monthly transaction volume of crypto cards exceeded $1.038 billion, with stablecoins accounting for 70%.
The industry is growing rapidly, but the underlying security infrastructure is clearly not keeping up. Last week's Rain contract hack is an example — a Visa principal member's contract version was outdated, affecting multiple brands simultaneously.
This is exactly the same risk as third-party service providers in traditional finance: you might think you've chosen different cards, but they may rely on the same underlying infrastructure.
When choosing a card, you can consider an additional dimension: who conducts the security audit of the card balance contract? How often is it audited? Is there insurance coverage? These issues may not be noticeable during normal use, but become crucial when something goes wrong. During the US stock market holiday window, the $CRCL token, which lacks real-time anchoring to the underlying stock, surged over 8% in a single day, showing a clear divergence from the flat Nasdaq index tokens.
The token's current price has risen to $94.30 with daily moving averages in a bullish alignment, but the 14-day RSI indicator has already reached an overbought zone at 73.6.
Institutional funds increased their positions in compliant dollars and payment targets before the market holiday, allowing stablecoin regulatory expectations to be the first to complete a round of sentiment pricing on the token's chart.
The suspension of the underlying stock and the calm of broad-based indices mean this rally is detached from the general rise in macro liquidity, leaning more towards an early discount recovery of the compliant dollar narrative in offshore liquidity.
If the underlying stock can sustain a gap-up and absorb the 1.31% discount after the US market reopens, momentum continuation will depend on continued capital inflows through compliant stablecoin channels.
If the underlying stock opens below expectations or market risk appetite declines, the token, currently at an overbought high, is prone to a sharp pullback as profit-taking accelerates.
When the underlying stock's opening price directly breaks below previous moving average support, the one-sided pre-pricing logic based on regulatory expectations is invalidated.
Within the next 24 hours, the key observation variable will be how strongly the underlying stock supports the token's gains during the market holiday at the US market open.
#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Tectonic $75 million DeFi vulnerability — Risks of using low liquidity tokens as collateral
The Cronos network was urgently halted yesterday. The largest lending protocol, Tectonic, was attacked, affecting about $75 million in assets.
Attack method: Within 20 minutes, the price of TONIC tokens was inflated about 100 times, then the inflated tokens were used as collateral to borrow other assets. About $6 million was bridged out before the chain stopped.
This is already the 5th confirmed DeFi security incident in 2026, with cumulative annual losses exceeding $1.26 billion.
This type of attack has a common pattern: using low liquidity tokens as collateral. The lower the liquidity, the cheaper it is to manipulate the price, but the larger the borrowing amount that can be leveraged.
Lesson for DeFi users: The liquidity depth of collateral is more important than APY. For a protocol with a TVL of $100 million, if the collateral is a low liquidity token, the risk is much higher than you think. Don't get excited about this morning's small gains yet; the real first test is at 10 PM tonight.
#Employment data is being released intensively, and Walsh's policy stance is under scrutiny
Both $BTC and $ETH have been rising since early morning, and some in the group are already shouting about a breakout, but after reviewing this week's data calendar, I still haven't dared to act.
As of around 9:40 AM Beijing time, BTC is at 78,524, up 0.86%, with a high of 79,256; ETH is at 2,468, up 2.14%, but the high point is still only 2,490.
At 22:00 tonight, the US July JOLTS job openings will be announced; on Friday at 20:30, the August non-farm payrolls will be released. The previous non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. Employment has become the market's most sensitive nerve.
If job openings continue to weaken, BTC will have the confidence to push back up to 79,000–80,000; if the data suddenly turns strong, the market will worry again about interest rates staying high, and this morning's gains may be quickly erased.
I'm not chasing now. I'll wait to see BTC hold above 79,256 and ETH above 2,500; before the data, it's just grinding in the middle, so let it play out on its own.
A brief morning rally doesn't indicate direction; only if it can hold after the data comes out can it be considered truly strong.
$BTC $ETH
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