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There are new developments at Crypto Treasury, with Strategy restarting coin purchases and BitMine continuing to increase its ETH holdings.
After a pause of about ten weeks, Strategy made a move again last week, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, spending approximately $370 million. The funds came from selling its own stock $MSTR, with the remainder used to repurchase preferred shares and pay dividends. The total holding is 845,050 BTC, with an average cost of $75,412, finally showing a paper profit.
BitMine is taking a different path—continuously increasing holdings for 65 weeks straight, last week buying another 53,501 $ETH. The total holding is 5.9 million tokens, accounting for 4.9% of the total network supply, of which 5.07 million are staked, generating about $335 million annually in staking income alone.
The divergence between the two models is becoming increasingly clear. The BTC bought by Strategy itself does not generate income and carries the interest burden of preferred shares and convertible bonds, with fixed annual expenses close to $1.8 billion. BitMine covers its expenses through staking income alone, able to sustain operations without selling assets.
Back to Bitcoin $BTC, the continuous buying by these two companies indeed supports institutional demand. However, old issues like dilution, asset concentration, and price volatility remain. For investors, the comparison is no longer just about which between BTC and ETH rises more—it’s about which of these two models can sustainably increase the per-share asset value. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持 Last night’s SNDK movement, after watching it, I just want to say one thing: the market maker is teaching a lesson again.
First, there was a bullish candle pulling up to 1543, looking like a breakout. As soon as long positions were placed, several bearish candles slammed down, breaking through 1451 directly, wiping out all long stop losses without exception. Just when you thought "this might crash," it reversed with a big bullish candle up to 1579, leaving the shorts no time to react before being taken out. It eats both sides without mercy.
With this kind of movement, technical analysis basically fails; you have to look at the underlying factors.
SNDK was included in the MSCI index, so index funds passively bought it during the close, forcibly pushing it up. Bernstein also came out to support it, listing it as the top pick in the storage sector, betting on AI inference and KV cache continuing to drive demand for high-capacity SSDs. The story is consistent, and the logic makes sense.
Looking at the levels, 1418 was the first bottom, 1440 the second, and last night’s low was 1451, each bottom higher than the last. This is not a breakdown; it’s using negative news to scare out weak holders, then big money slowly accumulates. But I have to be clear, this is not a position to chase blindly now; RSI is already close to 60, so rushing in risks a pullback.
So what I’m waiting for is just one thing: a pullback to around 1480 to 1500 to buy in batches, with a stop loss below 1450, and a target between 1550 and 1580. If there’s no opportunity, I won’t trade; it’s better than chasing halfway up the mountain. $SNDK Tonight's Nonfarm Preview: Data Quality May Determine September Rate Hike Path, Crypto Market Faces Critical Test
1. Market Background: Hawkish Expectations Fully Priced In
Since Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a clear hawkish signal at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium, market expectations for a September rate hike have surged — the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has jumped from about 35% before the meeting to 57%-60%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows this probability has even reached 65.4%. Meanwhile, a December rate hike is fully priced in by the market.
Powell's core stance is clear: inflation remains the central concern, and the Fed must see core inflation "clearly and at a sufficiently fast pace" converging toward the 2% target. In other words, as long as employment does not collapse, the Fed has reason to continue tightening.
2. Nonfarm Data Forecast: Significant Divergence
Various institutions have markedly different forecasts for tonight's August nonfarm payrolls:
Institution New Job Additions Forecast Unemployment Rate Forecast
Reuters Survey (Market Consensus) +58,000 4.1%
Bloomberg 53 Analysts Consensus +55,000 4.1%
ING +65,000 —
Deutsche Bank +65,000 —
Wells Fargo/NBC +80,000 4.1%
Better-than-expected nonfarm → September rate hike probability jumps → USD strengthens + US Treasury yields rise → Risk assets (tech stocks, cryptocurrencies) face valuation pressure → Crypto market declines
Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating near $80,000, already at a key resistance zone. A period of pullback is needed to build momentum for a micro rally and prepare for a stronger surge. I still favor short-term short positions at present. Employment data hasn't been released yet, but BTC, ETH, and SOL have already given three completely different signals.
Currently, BTC is still around 79,000, but ETH is only about 2,480, and SOL is near 104.
If you look at BTC alone, it's easy to think the market is still quite strong.
But when you look at the three major coins together, the feeling is completely different.
BTC holding the high ground indicates that funds haven't clearly withdrawn for now; ETH not continuing to surge suggests that funds are noticeably cautious about more volatile coins; SOL still has some elasticity but hasn't shown real acceleration.
So now I actually feel that the most worth watching this week isn't "whether the non-farm payrolls are good or not," but who moves first after the data comes out.
If the employment data is weak, and BTC breaks through 80,000 first while ETH and SOL start catching up, that means funds are beginning to spread out again.
But if BTC surges only to be pushed back down, and ETH and SOL remain weak, then it's not just simple volatility; funds are actively reducing risk.
This is also why I'm currently reluctant to chase the first wave.
Before the data release, every direction has a story; after the data release, only the real reaction of funds can't be deceived.
The real big market move this week might not be the data itself, but which major coin first loses support after the data is out.
Are you more focused on BTC now, or waiting for ETH and SOL to catch up? #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL Robinhood Chain has just delivered a set of very impressive data:
It processed 5.52 million transactions in a single day, with a DEX trading volume of about $875 million, created approximately 22,600 tokens in one day, and on-chain application revenue reached $2.66 million.
This revenue is about twice that of Ethereum applications, second only to Solana's $5.07 million.
But there is a detail easily overlooked by headlines: the $2.66 million is the income earned by on-chain applications, not the revenue directly obtained by Robinhood company or the underlying public chain.
Moreover, GMGN, Pons, and Uniswap contributed about 88% of the revenue, and the main driver is not the tokenized US stocks initially promoted by Robinhood, but Memecoin trading and rapid token issuance.
This data proves that Robinhood Chain has successfully attracted traffic, but it cannot yet prove that it has established a sustainable financial ecosystem.
When I judge whether a new chain is truly mature, I continue to observe three things:
Whether activity can be maintained for weeks, not just a few days
Whether revenue is long-term concentrated in token issuance and speculative tools
Whether tokenized stocks can form real holdings, rather than just short-term trading volume
High transaction numbers can create hype, but the real moat comes from users willing to keep assets long-term.
If a chain focused on tokenized US stocks ultimately earns revenue through Memecoin, is that a product success or a deviation from its direction? 📊 LAB Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01)
Bears fully dominate, momentum strong then weak, awaiting the ultimate nonfarm guidance
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $6,824.15 $1,203.21 $5,620.93
4 hours $54,700 $3,424.39 $51,200
12 hours $480,000 $130,700 $349,300
24 hours $2,210,400 $437,700 $1,772,700
In 1 hour, bears tested control with 4.67x leverage, volume under $10,000; in 4 hours, bears violently took over with 14.95x leverage, volume surged to $54,700; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled with 2.67x leverage, volume exploded to $480,000; in 24 hours, bears closed with 4.05x leverage, liquidations $1,772,700 vs longs $437,700, totaling $2,210,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 21.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration—meaning liquidation pressure mainly focused on the first half of the 24 hours (around the same period yesterday), with significant contraction in the latter half. Bear leverage moved from 4.67x → 14.95x (violent strengthening) → 2.67x (avalanche-like exhaustion) → 4.05x (slight rebound), showing an N-shaped oscillation, with short squeeze momentum rising then collapsing, and a weak late recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; light positions should avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period.
📊 Nonfarm hits this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the data "blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value -23,000; unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation remains "too high" and "there is more work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month rise around 0.2%, suggesting FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September meeting results is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI.
₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell back under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 intraday.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing "non-government credit assets" upward momentum—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects total revenue about $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, up over 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected about $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers usually have low margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group margin can improve from 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
Mapping to the LAB contract market, bears violently cleared long leverage at 14.95x, but 24-hour liquidation concentration is only 21.7%, indicating large-scale liquidation pressure mainly came from the same period yesterday, not a continuous snowball effect. The N-shaped leverage trajectory reveals a key signal: bears completed a "blitzkrieg" in the 4-hour window but exhausted follow-up momentum later. The current market is not yet directionally decided but is defensively positioned ahead of three major uncertainties landing—using shorts to hedge macro and earnings uncertainties. Direction choice awaits nonfarm release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The deadly sword of the nearly 300 million $CORE tokens minted out of thin air hangs high, and market panic has not dissipated at all.
The community quickly concocted a new big promise: institutional investors will enter the market in September to take over.
This script has been overused for a long time.
Once the market can't withstand the decline, talk of institutional entry, positive news, and cooperation floods in.
Essentially, it's a sedative for deeply trapped retail investors, dangling illusory hopes, forcing everyone to stubbornly hold their tokens to avoid a concentrated stampede crash.
The facade is deliberately dressed up to look glamorous, but the foundation has long been rotten like a sieve, and the project team simply shuts down to avoid public scrutiny.
The vulnerability review is repeatedly delayed, the destination of the newly minted massive tokens is a mystery, and they can be dumped to crash the market at any time.
The fundamental issuance mechanism has caused a huge blunder, the underlying system is shaky, and still fantasizing that institutions will throw money into this mess to put out the fire? Purely wishful thinking.
SatPay and BTCFi slogans are shouted loudly, but consecutive failures are already a foregone conclusion.
The primary task of institutional entry is risk control screening; how can a project that just exploded with massive unexpected minting and has no reliable underlying rules attract large funds?
Those trapped always foolishly wait for a savior to redeem them.
Reality is especially cold, and rumors are just temporary anesthetics to stabilize emotions.
The huge amount of tokens minted additionally will ultimately be taken on tearfully by retail investors holding on inside the market.
The decentralized dream woven over many years has just shattered, and a new round of pie-in-the-sky drama has already hurriedly begun. $SNDK's surge at dawn was a forced ride by the index?
SanDisk's sharp rise at dawn was due to being "forced on board" by the MSCI index—all tracking funds had to buy at a set point, and passive buying directly pushed the price up. But such a strong rise relies on the hard logic of AI storage: massive growth in inference data, SanDisk locking in the sector, plus signing long-term contracts that secure future shipments, making performance highly certain. For crypto traders, this is an opportunity where sentiment and liquidity resonate, and the race is to see who first understands the liquidity inflection point.
Entered at 1489, exited at 1561, profit 17000u
#OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 XRP has risen 40% in two weeks, rising from $0.99 to $1.38. A normal person's first reaction would be: leverage is piling up, shorts are being crushed, a typical short squeeze. But the data shows the opposite: open interest in futures across the market dropped by 16%, from 2.77 billion to 2.34 billion. As prices rise, leverage is withdrawing. Even more counterintuitive is another set of numbers: leveraged funds' net short exposure to XRP on the CME doubled from 57 million to 116 million. The price rose 40%, but professional funds are adding shorts. This is the part of this news that feels most off. Changing the subject to "that net short position" Most interpretations place the subject on "XRP price" and then tell a story of "compliant institutions entering the market and retail investors retreating." But if you change the subject to "that net short exposure," the whole narrative changes. A net short of 116 million XRP was built during the most frenzied price period. This is not bearish; it is hedging. The leveraged fund species has a fundamental difference from retail investors: they almost never go long or short without exposure. When they add short positions on the CME, there is likely a spot long position on the other side of the ledger. They are not betting on XRP to fall, but are buying insurance for their spot positions. What does this mean? This means the core driving force behind this round of rally may not be in the derivatives market at all, but in the spot market. Spot buying drives prices up, while professional funds hedge on the futures side. The higher the price,📊 KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01)
Bears fully dominate, momentum strong then weak, awaiting the ultimate nonfarm guidance
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $6,824.15 $1,203.21 $5,620.93
4 hours $54,700 $3,424.39 $51,200
12 hours $480,000 $130,700 $349,300
24 hours $2,210,400 $437,700 $1,772,700
In 1 hour, bears tested control with 4.67x leverage, volume under $10,000; in 4 hours, bears violently took over with 14.95x leverage, volume surged to $54,700; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled with 2.67x leverage, volume exploded to $480,000; in 24 hours, bears closed with 4.05x leverage, liquidations $1,772,700 vs. longs $437,700, totaling $2,210,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 21.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration—meaning liquidation pressure mainly focused on the first half of the 24 hours (around the same period yesterday), with significant contraction in the latter half. Bear leverage changed from 4.67x → 14.95x (violent strengthening) → 2.67x (avalanche-like exhaustion) → 4.05x (slight rebound), showing an N-shaped oscillation, with short squeeze momentum rising then collapsing, and a weak late recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; light positions should avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period.
📊 Nonfarm arrives this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value -23,000; unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month rise around 0.2%, suggesting FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September meeting results is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI.
₿ BTC consolidates at high levels: gold linkage strengthens, rate hike expectations pressure
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also pressured, briefly dropping below $4,450 intraday.
The core logic driving the prior synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing "non-government credit assets" upward momentum—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects total revenue about $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, with growth over 200%. JPMorgan expects 2026 full-year AI revenue to exceed $56 billion.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion AI server backlog, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected about $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers usually have low margins, market will focus on whether Infrastructure Solutions Group margin can improve from 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three matters sketch the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but short-term pressured by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
Mapping to the KAITO contract market, bears used a violent 14.95x leverage to clear long leverage, but 24-hour liquidation concentration is only 21.7%, indicating large-scale liquidation pressure mainly came from the same period yesterday, not a continuous snowball spread. The N-shaped leverage trajectory reveals a key signal: bears completed a "blitzkrieg" in the 4-hour window but exhausted follow-up momentum later. The current market is not yet directional but a defensive stance before three major uncertainties land—using shorts to hedge macro and earnings uncertainties. Direction choice awaits nonfarm release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元
Old Huang has made a move again.
$3.5 billion was used to buy MediaTek's convertible bonds. These bonds have a tough feature — zero coupon interest rate, no interest for five years.
What is Old Huang aiming for?
He aims to tie MediaTek's AI chip business into his own ecosystem.
The smartphone chip market is already too competitive to grow; MediaTek's revenue is increasing but profits are declining. The data center custom chip market is $80 billion, currently monopolized by Broadcom and Marvell. MediaTek's AI chip is expected to reach $2 billion this year, with a goal to capture 15% market share by 2027. Nvidia's $3.5 billion is the door opener for this entry.
The impact on the crypto world is twofold.
First, capital expenditure on AI infrastructure continues to rise. Nvidia has tied up with MediaTek again this year. The cost of computing power won't drop in the short term; miners and AI projects still have to bear hardware costs, but the demand base is becoming more stable.
Second, Nvidia is transforming from a GPU seller into the definer of AI data center standards. Once NVLink Fusion becomes the industry standard, all AI chips will have to play by its rules. Standardization of computing infrastructure will reduce fragmentation costs in the long run, indirectly benefiting AI tracks and DePIN projects in the crypto space.
Here is my view.
The essence of this deal is not about the money but about locking in the ecosystem position. The more expensive the computing power, the stronger the AI infrastructure; Bitcoin, as the "most primitive expression of computing power," has an even stronger foundational narrative.
$BTC Why can drones costing a few thousand dollars give air defense systems worth billions of dollars a headache?
Many people, when first seeing counter-drone measures, might think it's just about "shooting down drones." The real issue lies in the cost.
Traditional air defense systems mainly use missiles for interception. A cheap drone might only be worth a few thousand to tens of thousands of dollars, but you might have to fire a missile costing tens of thousands or even more. An occasional drone isn't a big deal, but if dozens or hundreds come at once, what might give out first isn't the air defense capability but the budget and ammunition stock.
That's why the defense industry is researching how to cheaply take down drones. There are roughly three methods: radar to detect them first, electronic warfare to directly disrupt their communication and navigation, and finally, using directed energy weapons like lasers to directly burn the target.
The investment logic here is easy to understand: the cheaper and more numerous the drones, the more countries need radar, electronic warfare, lasers, and counter-drone systems.
In the past, air defense was about how far missiles could fly; now it also has to consider one thing: how much does it cost to shoot down a single drone.#Strategy and BitMine Increase Holdings in Sync
Crypto whales keep moving: MicroStrategy announced the completion of a new round of stock issuance and continues to accumulate BTC. Meanwhile, leading mining company BitMine also announced an expansion of its Bitcoin spot reserves. Institutional buying at high levels shows real money doubling down!
The synchronized increase by giants reveals three core signals:
Institutional long-term logic remains unaffected by interest rate hikes: Even if there are short-term macro interest rate expectation gaps, top holding institutions still regard BTC as a strategic reserve on their balance sheets and firmly execute dollar-cost averaging strategies during pullbacks.
Mining companies shift from selling coins to hoarding coins: With mining costs rising after the halving, leading miners retain spot exposure through diversified financing, reducing secondary market selling pressure and improving supply-demand fundamentals.
Concentration of chips further increases: Low-cost chips in circulation are continuously withdrawn and locked in whale cold wallets, laying a strong liquidity tightening foundation for future market explosions.
With giants openly going long, do you think this high-level accumulation leads the main upward wave or increases volatility risk?
$BTC $MSTR #BTC #MicroStrategy #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
This week is the "super week" for U.S. employment data, with JOLTS job openings, ADP, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls being released intensively. This "four-hit" data directly determines the final pricing of the September FOMC.
Wash turns hawkish, and the market immediately reacts.
Federal Reserve Chair Wash bluntly stated in his keynote speech at Jackson Hole that current financial conditions are "hard to call restrictive," the 2% inflation target is "firm and unwavering," and if inflation does not clearly and quickly decline, the Fed "still has work to do." After the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 65.4%. A rate hike has shifted from a "low probability" to a "high probability."
More importantly, Wash redefined the significance of employment data. In his view, as long as employment does not collapse, it is not a reason to avoid raising rates. Inflation is the only decisive indicator.
Three scenarios for Friday's nonfarm payrolls:
Employment exceeds 65,000, rate hike is basically certain, BTC under pressure; employment around 50,000, the market remains conflicted, focus shifts to next week's CPI; employment close to zero or negative, rate hike expectations cool down, BTC gets a breather. But only if employment shows a "real and significant deterioration" could it possibly stop a rate hike.
For the crypto market, the biggest fear is not the rate hike itself, but uncertainty. Big money dares not take heavy positions before the boot drops. Before Friday, BTC will most likely continue to fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,500. Wait for the data to come out.
Personal opinion, does not constitute any investment advice. Wow, I don't know if everyone has noticed. Gold and BTC are teaming up to fight against fiat currency depreciation, while ETH is more like a tech growth stock waiting to explode.
Lately, watching the market, the movements of gold and BTC are simply "miraculously synchronized," both breaking through key levels.
It's such a coincidence, like a typical "currency depreciation trade," where people notice the US dollar's credit is shaking, so they simultaneously buy these two "hard assets" to hedge risks.
The data shows it clearly: in the past 5 trading days, gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs have collectively attracted $7 billion, flowing in parallel rather than competing for funds.
This indicates institutional money is treating BTC and gold as the same asset class allocation, rather than viewing BTC as a high-risk tech stock like before.
ETH's situation is completely different. Although it’s also rising, the logic leans more toward "technology applications."
On August 30, Ethereum ETFs had a single-day net inflow of $226 million, a 10-month high, but this is more about optimism for its on-chain ecosystem and the potential of AI, DeFi, and other applications.
My own strategy is: treat gold and BTC as "ballast stones," allocating portions of my portfolio to hedge macro risks.
ETH, on the other hand, is an "offensive asset," using a small position to bet on ecosystem breakout gains.
Stop mixing them up. The current market has already divided them into "safe-haven" and "growth" tracks.
The allocation logic is completely different. Understanding this is the key to holding onto profits. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 September has just started, and the real determinant of this round of market movement is no longer simply looking at the K-line, but the chain of employment data → Federal Reserve → US Treasury yields → risk asset valuations. Currently, $BTC still holds near $78,000, with an approximate 24% increase for the entire month of August, but the resistance between $79,400 and $80,800 has been continuously forming. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has clearly heated up after the hawkish tone at Jackson Hole. This week, JOLTS, ADP, and Friday's non-farm payrolls will become the next directional selectors. Strong employment means US Treasury yields may continue to rise, which is an uncomfortable environment for $BTC, $ETH, and gold; conversely, if employment cools significantly and rate hike expectations fall, the area around $77,000 could once again become a zone for capital accumulation. There is an easy-to-misjudge point here: the recent simultaneous strength of $BTC and gold does not mean they will always move in sync. Gold is more sensitive to real interest rates and safe-haven demand, while $BTC is driven by ETFs, liquidity, and risk appetite. Gold is currently oscillating near $4,400; if yields continue to rise, both may face pressure; but if employment weakens, gold and $BTC could instead resonate again. On the chart, I am now more focused on several levels: for $BTC, first watch $77,200; if it breaks below, the area near $76,000 will become a contested zone again; only by reclaiming $79,400–$80,800 can we talk about $82,000 again. $ETH is currently around $2,440, with a short-term focus on whether $2,400–$2,430 can hold. Second📊 HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01)
Bears fully dominate, momentum strong then weak, awaiting the ultimate nonfarm guidance
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $6,824.15 $1,203.21 $5,620.93
4 hours $54,700 $3,424.39 $51,200
12 hours $480,000 $130,700 $349,300
24 hours $2,210,400 $437,700 $1,772,700
In 1 hour, bears tested control with 4.67x leverage, volume under $10,000; in 4 hours, bears violently took over with 14.95x leverage, volume surged to $54,700; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled with 2.67x leverage, volume exploded to $480,000; in 24 hours, bears closed with 4.05x leverage, liquidations $1,772,700 vs. longs $437,700, totaling $2,210,400. The 12-hour liquidations account for 21.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating concentration is low—meaning liquidation pressure mainly focused on the first half of the 24 hours (around the same period yesterday), with significant contraction in the latter half. Bear leverage moved from 4.67x → 14.95x (violent strengthening) → 2.67x (avalanche-like exhaustion) → 4.05x (slight rebound), showing an N-shaped oscillation, with short squeeze momentum rising then collapsing, and a weak late recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; light positions should avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period.
📊 Nonfarm debuts this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the data "blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value was -23,000; unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%.
Just last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month growth around 0.2%, suggesting the FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September's meeting outcome is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI.
₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure
Bitcoin rose 28% cumulatively in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 during the session.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing the upward momentum of "non-government credit assets"—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, with growth over 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders, with quarterly AI orders at $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected around $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers typically have low margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve its margin from 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
Mapping to the HYPE contract market, bears used a violent 14.95x leverage to clear long leverage, but 24-hour liquidation concentration is only 21.7%, indicating large-scale liquidation pressure mainly came from the same period yesterday, not a continuous snowball spread. The N-shaped leverage trajectory reveals a key signal: bears completed a "blitzkrieg" in the 4-hour window but exhausted follow-up momentum later. The current market is not yet directionally decided but is defensively positioned before the resolution of three major uncertainties—using shorts to hedge macro and earnings uncertainties. Direction choice awaits the nonfarm release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $ETH is strongly bullish on a very large scale. If it doesn't give you a chance to pull back to 2200–2188 in September, that would really be a pity.
$ETH's first phase target in the bull market is $3800, which depends on whether it will pull back to 2200 before rising again or just go straight up. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 ETH is currently priced at 2473, and in Asian trading it fell back to around 2440, with the largest drawdown close to 1% during the day. Looking at the cyclical gains, the 30-day increase was 31.8%, but the 7-day increase was only 1.9%. The monthly bullish trend remains, but the weekly upward momentum has clearly exhausted. Looking back at the previous rally, August 19-21 was the main rally for three consecutive days, followed by a sharp consolidation on reduced volume over the next eight trading days. ETF trading volume shrank continuously from 107 million shares to 30.9 million shares, with volume nearly halved and halved again and again. On the capital side, ETH spot ETFs have maintained inflows for 11 consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow of up to $87.7 million, and a cumulative net inflow of about $1.75 billion in August—the strongest level since October last year. The underlying support for medium-term bulls remains. However, negative factors are suppressing the market on the macro side, with the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 64%. Tightening expectations continue to heat up, becoming the biggest headwind at present. The market is currently dominated by bullish and bearish ETF inflows, while rate hike expectations combined with shrinking volume and stagnation at high levels are bearish. There will be no one-sided trend today; we need to wait for prices to reach the boundary of the range. Combining the 4-hour Bollinger Bands indicator: middle band at 2454, upper band 2497, lower band 2412, overall range 2320–2566. The current price at 2475 is slightly above the middle of the range, which is the worst position to open a position. There is no advantage for both long and short positions. Trading Strategy 25$UNITREE Yushù Technology has dropped from over 400 billion at release to today's 230 billion
Many people may now be considering whether it will continue to decline, and whether 230 billion is too high?
Because the answer is actually very clear:
Based on current financial data, 230 billion is very expensive. The highest valuation given by the current evaluation agency Nomura is only 150 billion!
What should really be studied is:
"What can keep the 230 billion valuation sustained?"
I believe there are currently 5 core supports:
① Expectations of a humanoid robot industry boom
② Yushù's advantages in motion control and body technology
③ Existing real revenue and profitability
④ Long-term imagination space of AI + robots + data closed loop
⑤ Scarcity of leading robot companies in the A-share market
But at the same time, there are 4 major valuation killers:
① No explosion in robot sales
② Revenue growth significantly below market expectations
③ Lack of major customers/large-scale commercial applications
④ Competitors' technology and sales rapidly catching up
Currently, the market has already fallen from 444.9 billion on the first day of listing to 230.9 billion, evaporating over 200 billion in a week, indicating that the market has actually begun to actively reprice these risks. According to TradingBeats monitoring, the trader "CBB" associated sub-account has cumulatively purchased 125,492.4 HYPE spot tokens since 00:45 today, with a transaction amount of approximately 10.5506 million USD and a weighted average price of 84.073 USD. However, while buying the spot tokens, the account also added a short position of 125,458.02 HYPE perpetual contracts in 10x cross margin mode, with a position size of about 10.5524 million USD and an average entry price of 84.111 USD. The quantities and amounts of the two legs almost completely correspond, forming an almost 1:1 spot-futures hedge. Currently, the HYPE funding rate remains positive, meaning longs pay funding fees to shorts. This account has received about 1,818.6 USD in funding fees today through the perpetual short position. This strategy also uses borrowing to amplify capital efficiency. The account has enabled portfolio margin, currently holding about 190,538 HYPE as assets, while borrowing approximately 7.56 million USDC, with a USDC balance of about negative 5.96 million USD. The main account has net transferred about 10 million USD this round, and the remaining spot exposure is mainly financed through USDC borrowing. This address is a sub-account named "2HYPE DN" under the main account 0x49e9. The main account currently holds about 15.696 million USDC and controls multiple related sub-accounts. Main account: 0x49e96e255ba418d08e66c🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER.
I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎
But there’s one problem with that narrative:
Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow.💵
So I’m not convinced this pump is sim because of the so-calledTo get straight to the point: US military airstrikes on Iran, oil prices soaring, US stocks plummeting, yet $BTC actually rose. This is not a coincidence; it marks the turning point where BTC shifts from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset.
Last Friday, the US military launched airstrikes on Iran, oil prices jumped, and S&P futures turned green. Normally, risk assets should fall along with this. But what about BTC? It pulled back from 77,000 to 78,500, up 1.5%. ETH rose even more, and SOL is also climbing. The total crypto market cap reached 2.73 trillion, up 1.7% in one day.
Did you notice another signal? At the Jackson Hole symposium, hawkish comments pushed the September rate hike probability from 35% to 55.5%. Normally, a higher rate hike probability would cause BTC to fall. But BTC held steady at 78,000. The fact that bearish rate hike expectations couldn’t push it down means what? It means the buying pressure underneath is much stronger than you think.
Those who bottomed out at 77,000 on the day of the airstrike are already counting their money today. Those still waiting for 75,000 might not get that chance. The market never gives you a comfortable entry point; it always rises when you hesitate and crashes when you chase highs.
At the 78,000 level, building a position in batches makes perfect sense. Half a position allows you to attack or defend, and keep the remaining ammo for the mid-September pullback. Don’t believe me? Just wait. If BTC is still below 78,000 by the end of September, come to the comments and curse me.
#BTC #IranAirstrike #SafeHaven #RateHike After waiting for more than a year for the X Layer ecosystem incentives, the first round of rewards delivered was only 120,000 U, which starkly contrasts with the initially promised 5 million U prize pool and the grand RWA narrative. The motivation for new funds to enter is weak, while old funds remain inactive. The community has started taking screenshots to preserve data, preparing for a 1:1 migration to other chains. This "all bark and no bite" implementation approach has shaken even the originally steadfast internal supporters. I still hold XDOG, and seeing other communities gradually withdraw, the most agonizing dilemma is whether to leave or stay: leaving means over a year of construction and pool maintenance goes to waste, while staying might mean holding onto a chain losing users, waiting for an uncertain spring. Objectively, OKX has users, funds, and mature products, yet only offers Meme rewards at the 100,000 U level. Compared to Binance nurturing BSC and Coinbase supporting Base, this indeed seems insincere. Now the community votes with their feet, and the project team’s choice to migrate is a survival instinct, which is understandable. But where XDOG ultimately goes—whether to stay or seek another path—remains unclear and requires observing official follow-up actions. If there is no positive response soon, I will seriously consider exchanging XDOG and some OKB for a more active ecosystem. Risk warning: On-chain ecosystem rewards and migration plans are uncertain; please make independent judgments and manage position risks. $XDOG $OKB【GOOG drops to 335, why wait despite cloud business surge?】
Conclusion: Alphabet's fundamentals remain strong; the pullback is due to oil prices and long-term bonds pressuring valuation, not weakening AI demand; positioned as a "defensive with an offensive tilt," no orders near 335 for now.
Keywords: Search advertising, Google Cloud, Gemini, TPU, capital expenditure.
Fundamentals: Alphabet fuels AI with search traffic and advertising cash cow, then competes for cloud computing power with self-developed TPU, data centers, and developer ecosystem. Q2 revenue $119.8B, up 24% YoY; search revenue up 17%; Cloud revenue $24.8B, up 82%; cloud business operating profit $8.8B, margin 35.6%; but single-quarter capex $44.9B, turning free cash flow to -$5.9B. Advantages are global distribution entry points, data, and full-stack AI; biggest risks are antitrust, AI answers eroding search monetization, and delayed return on investment. Next catalysts to watch: September Goldman Sachs conference, Q3 cloud growth, and TPU external sales realization.
Technicals: GOOG closed at $335.41, down 2.18%; 335 is only for strength/weakness observation; hold and reclaim 345 to consider recovery, if lost then watch 320, touching does not equal buying.
Memory point: GOOG is not lacking growth now, but needs to prove AI capex can sustainably convert to cash flow. #谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 $GOOGL $xGOOGL
For research record only, not investment advice$CORE CORE project, from the highly anticipated "Bitcoin ecosystem pearl" to its current state, is no coincidence. It made poor choices at almost every key node, ultimately causing the price to collapse from a high of $6.47 to around $0.02, a drop of 99.8%. It can be said that the project team itself has gradually pushed CORE into the abyss. · Failed token economy: this can be called the deadliest "original sin." A total of 2.1 billion tokens may seem to benchmark Bitcoin, but the 81-year release cycle means endless selling pressure. Early large tokens allocated to teams, institutions, and nodes have unlocked cycles lasting decades, and the market is always worried that "tomorrow there will be another massive amount of free tokens to dump." At the same time, the high concentration of chips turned retail investors into counterparties to whale sales, resulting in a long-term imbalance between supply and demand. Disastrous ecosystem operations: The project team used CORE token inflation subsidies to maintain the returns of its core product lstBTC. This "left foot steps on the right" model naturally collapsed after the token crash. Worse still, they handed over the ecosystem's lifeblood to partner Maple Finance, only to be "betrayed" by Maple Finance using confidential information to develop competing products. Although user assets were later protected through legal injunctions and settlements, this dispute severely drained market confidence. · Hollowed-out narrative: In the early days, grand concepts like "binding Bitcoin hash power" and "BTCFi" attracted large numbers of retail investors. But the ecosystem remained hollowed out for a long time, and no real products were generated on-chain英伟达财报落地后，AI基建的接力棒交到了博通、戴尔和雪花手里。三家公司分别代表定制AI芯片、AI服务器整机和云数据软件三个不同环节——谁在真赚钱，谁在讲故事，今晚就见分晓。 --- $AVGO 博通（9月2日盘后） 博通是定制AI芯片（ASIC）赛道的老大，手握谷歌、Meta等云厂商的大额订单。上季度AI半导体收入108亿美元，同比增长143%，占总营收49%。市场预期本季度营收约294亿美元，同比增84%，AI半导体销售指引16亿美元。 我的判断： 博通大概率交出一份漂亮的成绩单，但股价可能反应平淡。市场已经充分定价了AI芯片的强劲增长，超预期才能涨，符合预期就是利空。 --- $DELL 戴尔（9月1日盘后） 戴尔是AI服务器整机龙头。市场预期营收约449亿美元，同比增51%，EPS约4.92美元，同比翻倍。期权市场押注财报后股价波动约10%。戴尔此前设定了600亿美元的AI服务器营收目标。 我的判断： 戴尔是这三家里预期差最大的。AI服务器需求确实在爆发，但市场担心毛利率被挤压——卖整机的利润率远不如卖芯片。如果毛利率超预期，戴尔可能是最大的惊喜；如果不及预期，跌幅也会最狠。A single pawn crossing the river blocks the Strait of Hormuz, and New York oil prices respond with a jump—this is not a local skirmish, but the opening of Wang Yi's offensive.
I sit before the chessboard, my gaze passing through Brent's price curve. The real money makers don’t take it step by step; twenty moves ago, I had already calculated this step: US military strike, Iranian retaliation, Saudi oil tanker intercepted in the southern route—although Saudi Arabia has not confirmed it, the market has already confirmed its judgment through price fluctuations. Brent rises to $90.49, up 2.71%, this knight’s leap directly shatters the illusion of calm in energy.
The real danger on the chessboard is never the visible attack, but the unseen restraint. The oil tanker disruption is not an isolated pawn—it links freight rates, pulls inflation; these scattered pieces eventually twist into a line of restraint. Energy inflation is the black bishop, diagonally targeting BTC’s position. When the bishop exerts force, the offensive inside the royal castle can only contract. $xMSTR is like the pawn chain on the rear wing, trembling slightly under the thrust of crude oil; it does not alone decide victory or defeat, but determines when the pawn chain breaks.
Many players only look at the next three moves: who won the conflict? How much more can oil prices rise? But my job is not to guess riddles, but to calculate the remaining moves of the entire game. The degree of damage to oil tanker transport directly determines whether the midgame is open or closed. If this route remains blocked, players will be forced to accept a closed midgame—all active pieces must be redeployed, which is a completely different endgame. At that time, BTC’s bottom is no longer technical support, but the countdown on the chess clock.
The 17 oil fields of the US and Venezuela are a long king castling move. It requires long-term investment to restore the speed of piece deployment, but the chess clock waits for no one. Every additional trapped oil tanker drops a drop of time on the clock. Venezuela’s production capacity is like a pawn that cannot promote in time; distant water cannot put out nearby fire.
From the center of the chessboard, this oil tanker route is the open d-file. Whoever occupies it controls the whole game. Continuous transport interruptions are equivalent to the opponent’s heavy pieces gathering on the d-file, suffocating one’s own formation. Thus, originally quiet pieces like energy, food, and metals begin to stir, and crypto assets, as the most sensitive rear wing, are the first to be drawn out. BTC holders are like pieces defending in low light; every move must be especially precise.
Saudi Arabia’s unconfirmed interception may be a bluff or may be real. Grandmasters know well that the most dangerous moves often start with unconfirmed rumors. The opponent’s retaliation is not the endgame, but a midgame transition. If Brent holds above $90, the dollar and oil will form a linked knight, advancing together. At that time, the risk asset sacrifice game will be on the table—you can choose not to take a stance, but the chessboard will not lie.
This is not checkmate, but the beginning of a long check—when the oil tanker flags fall on both sides, the king and queen pieces will both be stained with the color of crude oil. #oiltankerriskliftsoilIs BTC unable to break through 79,000?
The core resistance comes from the macro level.
The Fed Chair's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole reignited expectations for a rate hike in September.
This directly offset the liquidity boost previously brought by Treasury buybacks.
At the same time, the big surge in August accumulated substantial profit-taking.
Above 80,000 is a key supply zone.
A very strong spot buying force is needed for an effective breakout.
Currently, the market is digesting these pressures through consolidation.
$ETH fundamentals are "disconnected" from price.
Ethereum is performing weaker.
It broke below $2,400 to a new phase low.
Its exchange rate relative to Bitcoin is also under continuous pressure.
The core issue is it is facing an "adoption paradox."
On-chain activity and Layer 2 transaction volumes are hitting new highs.
But a large amount of activity has migrated to Layer 2,
resulting in extremely low mainnet gas fees (0.1-0.2 Gwei).
ETH's value as "digital crude oil" for consumption and capture is severely weakened.
Therefore, the recent rebound is more of a short-covering after overselling
rather than new incremental capital entering.
The ecosystem's prosperity has not effectively translated into price support.
$SNDK has performed best recently,
rising 5.5%.
US stocks surged then retreated.
AI storage remains a major trend.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 When that construction log was spread out on my desk, I immediately saw the cracks on the blueprint—Strategy used equity issuance as mortar to brick together 845.1K BTC into a skyscraper with no visible top, but forgot that every floor slab was inscribed with the word "dilution."
The foundation pit was dug deep enough. The incremental 460 units were just the concrete this developer dug up in the stock market to lay the foundation. The secret of this building lies in the fact that the main beams come from stock issuance, and the load-bearing walls come from the market's fantasy of rising coin prices. Any qualified chief engineer can see this is not a brick-and-concrete structure; it’s a house of cards. And the 5.9011M ETH holdings below are like a massive steel structure tower—nearly four-fifths of the components are pre-embedded in the staking pile cap, with an annualized yield of about $335 million, settled weekly, like a pile foundation equipped with an automatic grouting machine, making this tower stand firmer in wind and rain.
But there is no construction plan here that doesn’t require a price to be paid. The market linkage is like the wind tunnel effect between two adjacent supertall buildings: when an annual report is disclosed, all curtain wall glass vibrates synchronously. What you see is the hot sale of the foundation by institutions; what I see is the equity bubble mixed in every square meter of steel content. The gap between stock price and net asset keeps widening, like the silicone at curtain wall joints rapidly aging under scorching sun and freezing rain.
This building complex lights up after opening, but remember, if the developer ultimately can only maintain cash flow by issuing new shares, then the so-called "increase in holdings" is just dismantling the poured floor slab to pour another building. And although the staked ETH tower offers stable returns, it shares only a narrow corridor with the BTC skyscraper’s basement—that thinnest prestressed steel cable called volatility.
The entire block is opening. The neon sign saying "BTC breaks five-month downtrend," the colorful flag of "US-Iran oil market impact," and the LED screen of "Fear and Greed Index" all hang on the steel facade of these two new buildings, flickering in the wind. But professionals only look at the footing and settlement monitoring points—where the load limits are written, where tensile strain is recorded, and where the construction worker least wants to write in the supervision log:
The floor of this building is someone else’s ceiling. And is this building’s ceiling just the lifting height for another round of equity issuance construction? #cryptotreasurybuyingAugust was brutal for A-shares; the Shanghai Composite only rose 4% after a whole month of grinding, and the median stock gain was just 6.5%.
Meanwhile, in the crypto world, $BTC surged from 62,000 USD to 79,000 USD in a week [reference:4][reference:5],
with a single day seeing 3 billion USD liquidated and 180,000 people wiped out directly [reference:6].
Stocks can be stuck but you can pretend to wait it out,
while in crypto futures, one sudden spike and your account turns into an inheritance in three minutes.
$ETH can jump 19% in a day, but also give back more than half of that in the same day.
This $BTC push to 80,000 was driven by Trump's shoutout plus a short squeeze,
which is completely different from the valuation repair in A-shares.
If you lose money in stocks, blame the market,
if you lose in crypto, you can only blame your own reckless leverage.
Don't ask me how I know.Michael Saylor's Strategy just bought $369.7 Million worth of Bitcoin, his first buy in over 2 months.
Saylor is back.
$BTC Up 24% in August, but I'm not worried.
Reason: The open interest in perpetual contracts is at its lowest since May, and leveraged longs have almost been completely cleaned out. This round is driven by ETF and spot buying, not a bubble.
However, last Friday saw an ETF outflow of 200 million, and the 82,000 level was rejected three times. The probability of a Fed rate hike is close to 64%.
Friday's non-farm payrolls are the watershed—
Poor data → bullish for BTC, pushing to 82,000
Good data → bearish for BTC, pulling back to 77,000
It's not that I'm afraid to act now, it's just not worth the gamble. I'll wait for the data before making a move; entering a bit late but with more certainty.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $BTC The first week of September is likely to be a weak consolidation phase. Don't expect a one-sided surge, but also don't panic sell. The core of the bulls vs. bears battle is the tug-of-war between the macro interest rate hikes and institutional capital inflows.
📉 Core pressure: The shadow of Fed rate hikes
At the end of August, Fed Chair Powell hawkishly spoke at Jackson Hole, pushing market expectations for a September rate hike to 57%. Coupled with the US 10-year Treasury yield soaring to around 4.78%, and oil prices breaking above $91, this is definitely the biggest short-term bearish factor for liquidity-supported risk assets.
📈 Bullish confidence: Institutions are supporting the bottom
Bitcoin closed August with a 25.28% monthly gain, forming a strong bullish candle. This rally was mainly driven by spot buying, not leveraged positions. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows, and Ethereum investment products had 10 consecutive days of net inflows. Simply put: rate hike expectations are suppressing gains, but institutions are stepping in to prevent a big drop.
Key levels to watch
Upside: 80,000 is the first hurdle, 81,500 is strong resistance
Downside: 77,000-77,500 is the first support, 75,000 is the lifeline of the mid-term trend
Core consolidation range: 74,000-82,800
The market is waiting for the Fed meeting on September 15, which will be the decisive moment for direction. In terms of strategy, either wait for the price to pull back to 76,000-76,500 to lightly test long positions, or wait for a volume breakout above 80,000 to follow on the right side. The middle ground is a gamble; don't force it Anthropic's prospectus is planned to be disclosed, and the AI unicorn is finally moving from legend to spreadsheet
What I most want to see is not the valuation, nor the fundraising story, but three very specific things: inference cost, enterprise customer retention, and cloud vendor lock-in. AI companies can talk about a "huge future" in the primary market, but the public market will break down every dollar of revenue and every dollar of compute cost
This will make a lot of the hype awkward
If model capabilities keep getting stronger, but each delivery consumes more expensive compute, more expensive talent, and more complex security costs, then the valuation cannot rely solely on "everyone will use AI." What the IPO really needs to verify is whether the model company is capturing the fattest slice of the value chain or the hardest slice
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 $XAU 【Small target 1000, currently +460 ongoing】
Gold price has moved away from the accelerated trend of the past few days and has now returned to a familiar weak consolidation state.
The second buy-up opportunity is supported at 4418-22; the lowest midday price reached 24 but did not enter the market.
Subsequent plan remains unchanged: continue to monitor the sustained support buy-up opportunity at 4418-22 and the sustained resistance sell-down opportunity at 4448-55.The first wave of smooth upward movement for $BTC has most likely ended. From a low of 58K to a high of 82K, the total increase exceeded 40%. On the 4-hour timeframe, momentum is starting to weaken.
My personal plan is to begin adding Sell Call positions in September, with strike prices mainly set between 80K-82K. As September comes to a close, the exchange should release long-term options expiring next September, providing an opportunity to supplement with LEAPS Calls for one year out.🤖"Three-Dimensional Integrated Trading System | Latest BTC Market Update"
---- Can Bitcoin break through 82K in the short term❓️
I think it's very difficult❗️Why❓️
Let's look at the data and volume to speak, starting with the 4H bullish and bearish volume strength:
In the chart below, the blue bullish volume fluctuation curve shows a continuous shrinkage of bullish volume, with a clear weakening of rebound strength and lower rebound highs. Although bearish volume is also weak and lacks persistence, both sides lack the ammunition to launch a trending move.
Daily trading volume has been declining since peaking above 80,000 on August 25, with high-level volume contraction + price stagnation, volume-price divergence remains uncorrected.
Next, let's look at the capital structure:
ETF net inflow last week was about $924 million, down 51.8% from $1.92 billion the previous week. On August 28, there was a net outflow of $202 million, ending a 9-day consecutive inflow streak, indicating weakening marginal buying.
Binance's BTC reserves rose to about 687,000 coins, the highest level since 2026, accumulating potential selling pressure; meanwhile, exchange stablecoin reserves dropped from about $80 billion to $64 billion, reducing the ammunition available for absorbing sales.
Open interest contracts decreased from 331,000 BTC on August 21 to 318,600 BTC, with leveraged longs gradually exiting. The 8-hour average funding rate is 0.00821%, indicating short-term long positions remain somewhat crowded.
Resistance levels above:
The 80K-81.5K range is the most critical resistance zone currently; breaking through 82K requires volume support plus a new catalyst, conditions not met at present.
77K-78K is the first support level; if broken, look to 75.5K-76K.
🐉 Mr. Little Dragon's core judgment:
There is short-term upward momentum around 78,900, but 80K-81.5K is the real test. In the short term, the probability of price directly breaking 82K is very low.
Friday's non-farm payrolls are the biggest variable, with an expected increase of 55,000 jobs; below 30,000 could push BTC above 82K, above 80,000 might cause a pullback to 75K or even 72K.
Do you think this narrow-range oscillation market is very exhausting? It really tests patience? Macro easing + regulatory implementation, the logic behind the August crypto stocks rally is very clear
In August, crypto-related stock indices rose by 8.81%, driven by two main factors: first, the U.S. Treasury stepped in to buy back long-term bonds, suppressing Treasury yields and pushing funds out of risk-free assets; second, the SEC and the White House simultaneously released regulatory positives, legitimizing the industry and directly igniting sentiment.
The biggest contributors were those elastic targets: Strategy (MSTR), a major Bitcoin holder, Coinbase, a leading exchange, and Robinhood, a retail entry point—all directly benefiting from the premium.
In short, this rally is driven by a combination of macro liquidity expectations and a decline in regulatory risk premium, a beta market rally profiting from the rise in market risk appetite. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC $ETH 55% chance of a rate hike in September, with a 72% chance of a rate hike all year. After Walsh-Jackson Hole took a hawkish move, the market has already priced in a lot of hawkish expectations. BTC plunged from 81,000 to 76,000. This is the market repricing. Rate hikes mean a stronger dollar, US Treasury yields are pushing higher, non-yielding assets are the first to be hit, with BTC bearing the brunt. Even worse, in the November midterm elections, the Democrats' chances of winning the House are as high as 90%. The Senate is evenly split. If the situation flips, crypto bills basically have no chance—not only will they fail There may also be stricter scrutiny. Last time when the Democrats were in office, everyone remembers how the SEC did the crypto industry. Everyone still remembers that if the bill failed, compliance expectations would be delayed, institutional funds would hesitate to enter large-scale markets, and BTC's long-term narrative would be interrupted. Short-term negative news was indeed weighing on rate hike expectations and the midterm elections were hanging. BTC fell from 81,000 to 76,000, already a significant loss. But the market often starts repricing when sentiment is at its most pessimistic. At the end of 2022, when BTC fell below 20,000, everyone thought it was going to zero. So what happened? The negative news is real, but don't make decisions in panic. Wait for the nonfarm payrolls to be implemented before seeing. Manage positions first, then direction. Hold on when you need to, wait when you need to. #IntensiveEmploymentDataReleases, Walsh's Policy Stance Tested #BTC高位震荡, Enhanced Synergy with Gold #财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are being tested again The August security report is out, and the data is quite interesting.
The number of hacker attacks actually increased to 50, which is 67% more than in July.
But the total losses actually decreased to 136 million, nearly half less than the previous month.
What does this mean? More petty thieves, but fewer big cases.
The 74 million from Tectonic was the largest in August and the fourth largest theft this year.
Following that were Moonwell, Termlabs, Coinsbuy, all basically starting at the million level.
The 4.8 million from Injective didn't even make the list.
Hacker attacks are becoming more frequent, but the amount per incident is shrinking.
On one hand, this shows the industry's security awareness is improving, making big vulnerabilities harder to find;
on the other hand, it also shows hackers are starting to cast wide nets, targeting small vulnerabilities to skim profits.
Anyway, the good news is total losses are decreasing, the bad news is attack frequency is rising.
Those responsible for security audits shouldn't skimp, and those using small wallets shouldn't be greedy.
When it comes to security, never think you won't be targeted.
Of course, frequent hacker appearances will greatly dampen the market!
$INJ
#Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块 NVIDIA's $3.5 billion investment this time might not be really about MediaTek
At first glance, NVIDIA investing $3.5 billion in MediaTek looks like giving money to a partner, but what’s truly worth watching is why NVIDIA is bringing MediaTek into its ecosystem at this moment.
MediaTek joining NVLink Fusion means that in the future, customers making their own custom AI chips can also connect to NVIDIA’s rack-level systems. This change is quite critical because AI computing power might not only come from "buying NVIDIA GPUs" going forward; cloud providers, automakers, and tech companies will increasingly want to develop their own custom chips.
NVIDIA clearly sees this too.
Instead of waiting for others to slowly bypass its GPUs, it’s better to just include custom chips into its ecosystem. You can design your own chip, but in the end, you still connect to my network, system, and infrastructure. This way, NVIDIA is not just selling GPUs anymore but a complete AI computing system.
MediaTek is indeed a good piece of the puzzle. Its capabilities in SoCs, custom chips, PC, and automotive computing perfectly fill the gaps NVIDIA can’t cover. Especially as AI spreads from data centers to PCs, cars, and edge devices, these markets will become increasingly important.
So for this $3.5 billion, I’m less concerned about how much MediaTek’s stock might rise in the short term.
What’s really worth focusing on are the orders that come afterward.
If NVLink Fusion eventually allows more custom AI chips to join NVIDIA’s ecosystem, then this money isn’t just an investment in a supply chain partner but a preemptive move to secure the entry point for the next wave of AI computing power.
Jensen Huang’s thinking is becoming clearer: GPUs must be sold, but the ecosystem can’t be abandoned. $NVDA #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 $BTC $ETH $SOL fees hit a 19-month high + open interest rises, a typical "late rebound leverage replenishment." In August, futures open interest once soared to 48 billion, more than twice the spot trading volume; when the bubble burst, it was a double blow. Now between 77–79K, 10x longs cry at 76.8, 5x longs panic at 74. Veterans reduce leverage but not positions here, holding spot to withstand volatility, leaving leverage to weekend speculators to perish. #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 OKB stepped on my face to climb to 112, I won't call the top anymore; DOGE plays dead like a lottery ticket—two faces in September
🟡 OKB
① Yesterday's face slap wasn't finished, today it reached 112
Yesterday's face slap wasn't finished, today $OKB directly climbed to 112! Up another 1-2% in 24h, up 28-30% cumulatively in 30 days. This is not a correction, it's stepping on my face to climb higher. The drivers are strong: OKX's US IPO is accelerating, X Layer partnered with Chainlink for RWA pricing, total supply locked at 21 million with burn and no new issuance. Staking OKB allows self-deployment of markets, gas fees burn OKB, deflationary logic tightening more and more. I'm convinced, keep slapping my face.
② This rally is not random
To be honest, this rally of OKB is not random. After X Layer Exchange OS launched, developers staking OKB can open spot, futures, prediction markets; every on-chain interaction automatically burns tokens, with quarterly burns as well, supply and demand have already reversed. OKX also partnered with ICE Intercontinental Exchange for US stock tokenization, the compliance narrative directly pushes the valuation ceiling higher. In a weak market, it can hold on like this relying on the "exchange + chain + institution" three lines. Brothers, this time I really dare not call the top.
⚪ DOGE
① Others rise, I play dead; others fall, I kneel first
$DOGE also followed the red market today, up less than 1% in 24h, priced at 0.083. But the weekly chart is -10%, among mainstream coins it belongs to the "others rise I play dead, others fall I kneel first" type. No new narrative, purely beta following Bitcoin. If you say there's good news, Musk hasn't tweeted, and no sign of payment adoption. This coin is just a sentiment thermometer—the community hype makes it surge, the community sleep makes it drop. If you want to hold it as a staple, better prepare some quick heart medicine first.
② Faith recharger, not a main position
To be fair, DOGE now is just a "faith recharger." No volume technically, narrative vacuum, all depends on Musk's whim and the market mood. It barely turned green today when the whole market was red, showing DOGE itself is weak. My advice: treat it as a lottery ticket, not a main position. Wait for the day DOGE suddenly rockets straight up before shouting "takeoff," otherwise just watch it for fun. After all, what we trade is heartbeat, not savings.ETH leverage plummeted 91%, but the price remains completely stable?
Experienced players in the crypto circle know a rule well: when the market undergoes large-scale deleveraging, the price inevitably crashes.
But this time with ETH, it completely overturned everyone's expectations.
Contract leverage directly dropped 91%, almost to zero.
In the past, this would have been smashed to pieces by a chain of forced liquidations.
Yet it stubbornly holds at $2500, not dropping at all.
Many believe retail investors have been washed out, the bad news is fully priced in, and the price should rise.
But that is completely wrong.
This is not a bottoming process; ETH's price control is quietly changing hands.
1. Leverage is completely dead, so why hasn't the market crashed?
Previously, ETH's surge to $2500 was entirely driven by retail contract leverage.
Binance and Bybit alone generated $1.12 billion in leveraged positions over seven days.
Everyone was adding leverage chasing the breakout, purely a gambler's market.
Now the wind has shifted, leverage has been cut down to just over $100 million.
Short-term speculative positions have basically been cleared out.
The reason the price holds is simple: the buyers have changed.
The ones who withdrew were retail leveraged gamblers borrowing money.
Supporting the price now are real spot ETF funds from Wall Street.
In just ten days, the US ETH ETF has attracted $1.5 billion.
BlackRock alone has taken over more than $1 billion in chips.
These two are completely different concepts.
Leverage funds are virtual; when the market falls, forced liquidations cascade and crush the price.
ETF spot funds are real, unleveraged, and carry no risk of a stampede. Simply put: casino money has exited, and the regular army with real cash has taken over.In the treasury stocks, should we follow Strategy's BTC financing buy orders or bet on BitMine's ETH staking path? I lean towards the latter.
Strategy used $369.7 million from stock sales to buy 4,603 BTC. BitMine increased its ETH holdings by 53,501 in one week, with about 86% of the 5.9011 million holdings staked. According to the metrics, the expected annualized income is $340 million, but this is only a forecast.
BTC is capped below 79,387.8 on the 4-hour chart, ETH is holding EMA20 at 2,461.23, with resistance at 2,534.48; the S&P daily line is above EMA20, indicating risk appetite remains intact. If ETH closes above 2,534.48 and BTC still can't break 79,387.8, I continue to favor ETH; if ETH falls below 2,461.23 and BTC breaks above 79,387.8, this judgment is void.
$BTC $ETH #Strategy与BitMine同步增持
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice.2. Core Driving Factors
1. Industry Fundamentals Favorable
NAND-Flash prices remain in an upward cycle, but the rate of increase has significantly narrowed. AI computing power drives strong demand for enterprise SSDs and high-performance NAND, with manufacturers' production control strategies supporting wafer prices, forming a medium- to long-term fundamental floor; however, weak consumer demand somewhat limits the upside.
2. Sector Sentiment Disturbance
This week, the US semiconductor sector was generally weak, with the memory segment having accumulated substantial floating profits earlier, triggering a wave of concentrated profit-taking. Storage stocks opened lower and declined early in the week, with SanDisk following the sector's pullback; as panic eased, funds resumed betting on the long-term AI storage logic, leading to a slight rebound and recovery in stock price.
3. Changes in Capital and Options Structure
This week, major funds saw a phase of net outflow, and the options pressure range narrowed, intensifying market long-short competition. The trading focus shifted from pure story speculation to verifying order fulfillment and whether gross margins can remain high, cooling short-term speculative enthusiasm.
3. Technical Analysis
After the stock price fell from historical highs, it is currently in a consolidation and bottoming phase. Strong resistance forms near $1,600, while around $1,400 serves as important psychological support. Short-term moving averages have shifted from bullish alignment to flattening, indicating that the one-sided rally has temporarily paused, with a high probability of wide-range oscillation awaiting new catalysts.
4. Outlook
In the medium to long term, AI large models' demand for large-capacity, high-durability flash remains a core positive; however, short-term risks include: valuations at extremely high levels, earnings expectations fully priced in, and a slowdown in flash price increases.
Key points to watch going forward: first, the trend of NAND spot and contract prices; second, capital expenditure guidance from leading cloud providers. If orders continue to exceed expectations, the stock price is likely to rally again; otherwise, it will continue to oscillate at high levels to digest valuations. #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 $SNDK surged $100 wildly in the last 45 minutes of trading, who's scooping up??
The most direct trigger for this rally is the inclusion in the MSCI Global Index taking effect.
After the close on August 31, SanDisk was officially included in the MSCI Global Index.
All passive funds tracking this index must complete their positions before the close, and the concentrated buying at the close directly exploded the market.
But this is not over yet. AI storage continues to ferment.
SanDisk's own high gross margin transformation and long-term order agreements are the real confidence—two-thirds of capacity has already been locked in.
Gross margin anchored at 80%, this is not just propped up by hype.
This rally will most likely continue to push further, with a target near 1800.
Institutional passive positioning is just the ignition; the real fuel is still ahead #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Today Robinhood Chain has completely exploded.
BONER surged over 400% in one day, MOO rose more than 300%, and AI, PONS are also continuously hitting new highs. Many people see the "Robinhood Chain concept" and their first reaction is to look for the so-called Dragon One and Dragon Two.
But don’t confuse the concept with the official project.
Most of these popular coins are Meme tokens issued by third-party platforms, not official tokens of Robinhood. The real Gas for Robinhood Chain is still ETH.
The most interesting part of this chain is not that it just copied another Pump.fun, but that someone started pairing Meme coins with stock tokens. For example, AI is paired with tokenized Nvidia stock.
Previously, issuing a Meme on-chain usually involved using ETH, SOL, or stablecoins for liquidity; now even stock tokens like Nvidia and Tesla can become "base assets" on the chain.
This is the real direction worth watching for Robinhood Chain:
If stock tokens can be freely traded, form LPs, be used as collateral for loans, or even become pricing units for other assets, then RWA will no longer just be about copying stock prices onto the chain, but about bringing the entire financial ecosystem on-chain.
Of course, the first to emerge are still casinos.
Meme can help a new chain quickly attract users, capital, and trading volume, but hype does not equal long-term value. #Employment data intensive release, Wash's policy stance under test
This week, the US will have a dense schedule of JOLTS job openings, ADP small nonfarm, initial claims, and August nonfarm employment data. Previously, July nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 with a significant downward revision of 103,000 in prior data, indicating a cooling labor market that directly clashes with Wash's "anti-inflation priority" stance at Jackson Hole.
The three core battlegrounds of the super employment week:
The litmus test of policy stance: After Wash turned hawkish, the probability of a September rate hike soared to nearly 60%. If this week's nonfarm data weakens again, worsening employment and sticky inflation will put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.
Recession fears vs tightening deterrence: If data overheats, it will strengthen rate hike expectations and push up US Treasury yields; if data collapses, it may ignite hard landing concerns and trigger a secondary liquidity reassessment.
Amplified asset-side volatility: US stocks, gold, and BTC, all sensitive at high levels, will have their performance this week entirely dependent on whether macro employment data can provide the perfect balance for an "economic soft landing."
Do you think this week's nonfarm data will confirm economic weakening to suppress rate hike expectations, or continue to provide ammunition for hawkish escalation?
$BTC $SPX