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$BTC70000 $ETH 2340 surging, is the crypto bull really here?
Real trading @玩的就是实盘 九总
This round of rise seems like the bull is here, but in fact, it is the market's dynamic response based on news. When the US Senate has set the voting date for the Clarity Act in September, a bill that originally seemed impossible and was even delayed to next year for voting has turned back into a certain bill. This is a crucial key point!
The SEC proposed new crypto product rules before the White House summit. And with Trump hosting this crypto summit, the crypto market has been dull for a long time. Finally, we see a bit of light. The market will react quickly and support Trump with actions. Only Trump can change the pattern of the crypto market, so this is the main important reason for this rise. The timing, space, and logic all align.
Some people ask if the bull is here this time? My personal understanding is that this is a good development sign, not that the bull is really here. Next, we need to see if the Senate bill will really pass, what important news Wash will release at the annual meeting on the 28th of this month, and whether the rate cut expectations will be brought forward. These three important pieces of news will determine whether crypto will take off. It is not confirmed that the bull is here just based on last night's news. Whether the bull comes or not depends on whether it can be successfully implemented within a month!Leopold Aschenbrenner, once immensely celebrated and dubbed the “AI Stock God” by the market, hails from the former FTX team. His fund grew from $225 million to $20.2 billion, becoming a global benchmark in the AI sector. The most thought-provoking turning point lies in his holdings report: In Q1, he clearly predicted overheating in chip storage and held over $8 billion in put options as risk insurance, always wary of a pullback. But by Q2, he made a fatal decision—completely liquidating his hedges and shifting to an unprotected pure long position. More than half of the funds were concentrated in storage leaders: just SanDisk $SNDK and $MU accounted for 55.5% of holdings. Although seemingly diversified across more than twenty stocks, they all belonged to the same AI computing power, storage, and data center industry chain, causing highly correlated risks. In July, the AI sector faced a systemic sell-off, with Micron’s largest drawdown at 35.9% and SanDisk plummeting 55.3%. Coupled with high leverage amplifying losses, the safety cushion quickly depleted, pushing the fund into a liquidity crisis, ultimately forcing it to sell most holdings at a discount to Citadel. Fortunately, he still held unlisted equity like Anthropic, so he wasn’t left completely empty-handed. This story serves as a warning to crypto traders as well: no matter how bullish you are on a sector, never go all-in and abandon risk hedging. No matter how strong your prediction, you can’t withstand a black swan event from concentrated heavy positions in a single direction. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #海力士40万 Last night, the crypto space experienced a strong surge. $BTC surged above $69,000 for the first time in two months, rising over 6% in a single day; $ETH also surged 20% simultaneously, with market sentiment clearly warming up. Meanwhile, nearly $2 billion in positions were liquidated in the crypto market, forcing a large number of shorts to exit. So the question arises: Is this rally really just a simple case of funds entering to buy? Actually, there are three key factors behind it. 1. Concentrated short liquidations accelerate the rally The biggest feature of this surge is the very rapid breakout. When BTC broke through a key level, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated. This created a cycle: price rises → short squeeze → forced buy to cover → pushing the price even higher. So this rally is not purely retail chasing the price, but an accelerated rise formed after the release of short pressure. 2. Improved regulatory expectations boost risk appetite Recently, the US crypto regulatory environment has been continuously improving. Trump is pushing the "CLARITY Act," aiming to further clarify: which crypto assets are securities; which are commodities; and how the SEC and CFTC will regulate in the future. Clearer regulation will reduce institutional concerns about entering the market. The market trades not just on short-term news but on expectations for the future development of the crypto industry. 3. Improved liquidity brings renewed attention to risk assets Besides factors within the crypto market itself, the macro environment has also changed. The US has expanded its long-term bond repurchase program, and the market believes this could improve liquidity conditions After BTC and ETH suddenly broke through these past two days, $SOL has clearly followed suit. SOL is currently around $80, having reclaimed an important previous resistance area. Yesterday, SOL surged about 9% at one point, and the market has started to discuss whether it can open up the next phase of growth. What I find most interesting about SOL now is not just that it’s rising quickly, but that it happens to be in a rather special position: BTC breaks through ↓ ETH breaks through ↓ capital starts seeking higher Beta ↓ SOL becomes one of the first mainstream assets to absorb capital ↓ if SOL continues to break through ↓ capital may then further spread to other altcoins. So, in a way, SOL is currently the market’s risk appetite thermometer. Moreover, it’s no longer just a public chain favored by retail traders. Institutional entry is increasing. Currently, the cumulative net inflow of Solana ETFs/ETPs in the US market has exceeded $1.1B, and Morgan Stanley has also launched Solana products with staking mechanisms. This means: Previously: Retail investors bought SOL → speculated on the ecosystem → SOL price rose Now gradually becoming: Institutional allocation → ETF/ETP → SOL spot demand → staking → earning network rewards This change is actually quite significant. But I wouldn’t be outright bullish just because of this. Because SOL’s biggest risk is also obvious: Price increase ≠ on-chain fundamentals recovering in sync. Recently Sol$BTC $ETH #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ As of press time, BTC is trading near $69,500, having once approached $69,900 intraday; ETH has risen to around $2,250, with a 24-hour increase of about 18%, significantly outperforming BTC. This rally is mainly driven by three factors: First, long-term US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar has weakened simultaneously, and liquidity pressure on risk assets has temporarily eased. Second, short positions in the market were previously overly concentrated. After BTC broke through the consolidation range, it triggered a chain of forced liquidations, and passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a clear short squeeze effect. Third, ETH had long lagged behind BTC in performance, with a higher degree of short crowding. When market sentiment warmed, funds began to cover high-elasticity assets, causing ETH to catch up. From the chart structure, BTC is repeatedly testing the $70,000 level. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above, the short-term trend may continue upward; if it breaks through but quickly falls back, attention should be paid to $68,000 below, with further support in the $64,000 to $65,000 range. For ETH, resistance is first seen near $2,300, with support between $2,100 and $2,200, and $2,000 remains an important psychological level. Currently, the market trend is bullish, but the price is rising rapidly, and sentiment and leverage heat are also rising simultaneously. Short squeezes can drive prices up quickly but cannot replace sustained spot demand. What really matters next is: The crypto market suddenly heated up today, with all sectors rebounding simultaneously, driven by clear and concentrated factors. First, institutional funds made a large-scale return. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded significant net inflows for two consecutive days, about $298 million on Monday and about $189 million on Tuesday, reversing the previous continuous net outflow trend. Leading funds such as BlackRock and Fidelity re-entered the market, providing solid support for BTC around $64,000 and boosting overall market risk appetite. Second, market sentiment showed a clear recovery. The Fear and Greed Index quickly rose from extreme fear at the beginning of the month to above 40. Short covering and short-term capital inflows combined to push BTC close to $65,000 at one point, with mainstream altcoins rising simultaneously and overall trading activity significantly increasing. Policy and macro expectations improved simultaneously. Today, Trump will meet with crypto industry leaders, raising market expectations for regulatory clarity; meanwhile, the FOMC meeting minutes are about to be released, and investors are becoming more optimistic about the Federal Reserve's policy path. The marginal improvement in macro liquidity expectations has provided breathing room for risk assets, with the crypto market, as a high-beta asset, reacting first. Overall, this rebound is driven by a triple resonance of institutional buying, sentiment recovery, and policy expectations, with strong short-term momentum. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of ETF fund flows, expectation gaps after macro data releases, and the actual content of regulatory statements, all of which may trigger volatility. The market has not yet exited the oscillation pattern; chasing highs requires caution, and position management remains key. Risk warning: The price of crypto assets is volati#WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC ——$BTC
When the King of Understanding said "talked about buying $BTC," it immediately pushed the market to 70,000
I checked in the evening, BTC broke through 70,000, reaching as high as around 70,100. My long position opened at 64,700 is still open, with a considerable floating profit. $ETH also surged above 2,100, rising nearly 10%. There were 1.4 billion liquidations in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 90%, basically wiped out by this wave.
The trigger for this rally was the King of Understanding's White House crypto meeting—Trump stated that his administration has discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, saying crypto "greatly alleviates the pressure on the dollar." He also urged Congress to expedite the passage of the Clarity Act, saying the US must lead China and other countries, and confirmed the voting date of September 15. Additionally, top crypto figures like the CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, and Robinhood were present.
Then BTC surged from 64,000 straight to 70,000. The King of Understanding's words are indeed more effective than any technical indicator.
However, we still need to watch closely. The Clarity Act is stuck in the Senate due to unresolved ethical clauses, so whether it will pass on September 15 is still uncertain. The US Treasury is still discussing whether to expand Bitcoin reserves; it's only at the discussion stage with no timeline. A pullback is normal.
70,000 was reached, but whether it can hold depends on volume. Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge last night?
1: Macro liquidity release, the US increased Treasury repurchase efforts, the market interprets this as a liquidity easing signal, raising risk appetite and boosting the market.
2: The market has been consolidating in a range for over 80 days, now choosing to break upwards, but whether this is a valid breakout or a false breakout to lure buyers remains to be seen over time.
3: After a volume-driven surge, the market is unlikely to immediately reverse downward; a probable phase of trapping buyers will occur. It has already surged to the 70K level. The previous target of 68K is clearly conservative; patience is needed to observe the market before deciding on shorting opportunities. News: Citibank (Citi) is preparing to launch Bitcoin custody services, further expanding institutional crypto entry.
Why it matters:
1️⃣ Custody is the "last mile" for institutional entry: compliant custody solves the most troublesome asset security issues for institutions;
2️⃣ The signal is more important than the business itself: Wall Street giants are all laying out plans, indicating that crypto assets are entering mainstream asset allocation frameworks;
3️⃣ Combined with new SEC regulations and the GENIUS Act: regulatory frameworks + compliant channels are being improved simultaneously.
Impact on the market:
• Short term: positive sentiment, but implementation will take time, don’t expect immediate results;
• Medium term: incremental institutional funds are a slow variable, continuously lifting the bottom;
• Structurally: BTC as the preferred custody asset, its allocation value continues to be strengthened.
Wall Street is not here for short-term speculation; they are here to allocate assets — this determines the underlying tone of the bull market.
(Original analysis, data from public reports, DYOR) #BTC #institutional $BTCThe latest released July FOMC minutes have once again brought the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve to the forefront.
The final vote was 9 to 3 to maintain the interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75%, but behind those three dissenting votes were broader hawkish concerns.
Three regional Fed presidents explicitly advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike, with a straightforward reason: inflation remains stubbornly above target, and if no action is taken now, a higher price may have to be paid later.
The minutes also show that "many" participants acknowledged that if prices do not continue to fall, further policy tightening is almost inevitable; some even felt that current financial conditions are not tight enough to truly push inflation back to 2%.
The economy itself is not bad—growth is steady, employment is balanced, and investment and productivity are not weak.
The real trouble lies in supply shocks, especially the energy price pressures caused by the Middle East situation, which make inflation more sticky. Since the new chair Wash took office, the committee has clearly reduced forward guidance and emphasized "data dependence," making it harder for the market to price in the next moves in advance.
Overall, the minutes lean hawkish but do not immediately lock in a rate hike in September. The real direction will be decided by inflation and employment data in the coming weeks. If price cooling falls short of expectations, internal pressure to raise rates will quickly intensify. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 sol rose, but it doesn't count as that "short squeeze bullish candle." +11% is good, roughly the same as btc, but quite behind eth. Hard data (OKX SOL/USDT): · Current price about $85 · 24h range $76.7 – $87.2 · 24h +10.7%, volume about $374M (7-day average 3.3x) · 7 days +11% vs ETH +19% vs BTC +9% · Only -14% from ATH $98 — much closer than eth's -54% from ATH SOL/ETH exchange rate today -0.3%. eth is adjusting its rate, sol didn't get the same premium. Chart 1: rising, but not as violently as eth Over 90 days sol has been in the $75–$95 range, unlike eth's deep drop and sharp V recovery. Volume increased today, but 3.3x volume vs eth's 4.5x — capital priority is not on sol. Only 14% from ATH, sol is not a "deeply oversold rebound," but a "high-level range breakout attempt." Chart 2 + Chart 3: third bar logic only half valid today 45-day relative strength: eth's curve pulls away from sol and btc. 24h: eth +17.7%, sol +10.7%, sol rose about 7 percentage points less than eth. btc brokeCitigroup (C) has officially confirmed that it will provide Bitcoin (BTC) custody services to institutional clients through its new "Custody+" platform later in 2026, becoming the first major U.S. bank to integrate virtual assets with traditional stocks and bonds under the same custody framework. The initial phase will support only BTC, with potential future expansion to mainstream tokens such as ETH, SOL, USDC, and USDT.
The fundamental driver behind this entry is regulatory easing: in May 2025, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) officially approved banks to offer virtual asset custody, the SEC repealed SAB 121 and implemented the new SAB 122 regulation, significantly lowering capital requirements for financial institutions holding crypto assets. Coupled with the long-term gap in institutional custody infrastructure following exchange collapses in 2022-2023, "regulated capital" such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds urgently need bank-grade channels to hold coins directly rather than detouring through other routes. Citigroup's custody network covers over 100 markets, with its own custody scale around $24 trillion, filling a critical gap upon entry.
In the short term, the opening of traditional capital entry channels constitutes a substantial positive for core assets like BTC 📈; however, the medium to long term still requires observation—Citigroup has yet to disclose specific fees, insurance arrangements, and security responsibility allocations, the structural gap of FDIC not covering digital assets remains unresolved, and there are uncertainties in cybersecurity and regulatory evolution, so caution is advised in the long term 📉. #BTC breaks through $69,000, how far can this rally go? $BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB This $HYPE long position was entered around 59.4, and now it's at 72, achieving 10x returns with 50x leverage. This kind of trend looks great, but holding on is actually quite agonizing.
Why did I dare to buy at that time? Looking at the 4-hour chart, it had been consolidating around 59 for a long time, unable to drop further, and volume had shrunk—a typical accumulation phase. Also, with new tokens like this, once capital consensus forms, the pump can be relentless. Sure enough, a big bullish candle broke through directly, giving no chance to get in.
But now at 72, I actually hesitate to make a move. The previous high reached 72.6, and now it’s oscillating near 72, with the 4-hour candle leaving an upper shadow. What does this indicate? Selling pressure is starting above, and buyers chasing the high are hesitating. With 50x leverage, this kind of consolidation is deadly; even a slight pullback can wipe out profits.
My strategy is clear: raise the stop loss directly above the entry price, around 60, so this position is already in a no-lose situation. For the remaining position, I’ll see if it can hold above 70. If it consolidates and then breaks through 72.6, there’s still room to run; but if it breaks below 70, I’ll take most profits off the table and not gamble against it. This round of rally is not purely driven by sentiment but is the result of multiple factors resonating together.
The primary catalyst is the U.S. Treasury's announcement to at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion per operation, which helps lower long-term interest rates and improve bond market liquidity, thereby boosting risk asset appetite.
Secondly, the derivatives market saw forced liquidation of over $1.4 billion in short positions, with shorts accounting for more than 90%, creating a clear short squeeze effect that further amplified the gains.
Additionally, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded consecutive net inflows in recent days, reversing previous net outflows and providing capital support for the rally.
The most critical signal is the price reclaiming the 200-day moving average. Bitcoin had been trading below this average for about 270 days, one of the longest weak periods in history, making this recovery structurally significant.
The psychological resistance at 70000-70500, once effectively broken, points the next target to the 73000-76000 range; support levels to watch are the 68000 breakout confirmation zone and around 66500.
Current short-term indicators have entered overbought territory, implying a higher probability of a short-term pullback or high-level consolidation.
This rally is a rebound driven by improved macro liquidity expectations combined with technical oversold recovery, rather than a full-scale bull market restart. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ 4 Core Reasons for ETH's Surge Yesterday
1. U.S. Treasury Bond Buybacks (The Most Direct Trigger)
The U.S. announced an expansion of long-term Treasury bond buybacks, causing a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening dollar.
With bond yields falling, capital flowed into risk assets, lifting BTC and ETH simultaneously, driven by macro liquidity.
2. Short Squeeze in the Futures Market (Amplifying the Rally)
A large number of short positions had accumulated earlier; after the price broke upward, many shorts were forcibly liquidated;
Short sellers had to buy ETH to close positions, further pushing prices higher, creating a positive feedback loop for the rally, with ETH's gains stronger than BTC's.
3. Breakthrough of Key Technical Resistance
ETH surged past the critical resistance at $2000 plus the 200-day moving average, triggering algorithmic long buy orders, with trading volume increasing simultaneously, attracting technical traders to chase the rally.
4. ETF Capital Inflows + Improved Regulatory Sentiment
ETH spot ETFs recorded net inflows for several consecutive days; the market expects the U.S. crypto regulatory framework to become clearer, raising institutional risk appetite and providing underlying buying support.
$ETH #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $SNDK $SKHYNIX SK Hynix (SK Hynix) Comprehensive Analysis
Risk Warning: This is only an industry logic review and does not constitute investment advice. Ticker: Korean stock 000660, US ADR: SKHY.
Business Overview
The world's second-largest memory chip manufacturer, with two core segments: DRAM (about 73% of revenue) + NAND flash (about 27% of revenue).
• DRAM: Standard server/PC/mobile memory + HBM high-bandwidth memory (AI core ace), HBM market share about 56-58%, key supplier to NVIDIA, with gross margin significantly higher than standard DRAM.
• NAND: Consumer SSDs, enterprise SSDs, AI inference large-capacity QLC storage, competing with SanDisk and Kioxia.
Core contradiction: It is both the leading HBM player in AI high growth and a traditional cyclical memory company, combining two attributes.
Bullish Logic
1. Absolute leader in the HBM industry, AI computing power is a must-have
AI GPUs rely on HBM; bandwidth bottlenecks constrain large model training and inference. HBM3E has been widely supplied, HBM4 is entering mass production ramp-up, with multi-year long-term contracts signed with overseas cloud providers, securing mid-to-long-term capacity. HBM product gross margins are significantly higher than standard memory chips.
New wafer fabs and advanced packaging capacity expansion cycles are very long, making it difficult to quickly fill the gap in the short term, resulting in structural shortages in the industry.
2. Standard DRAM and NAND entering an upcycle
Capacity is heavily tilted towards HBM, squeezing supply of general memory and flash, DRAM/NAND ASPs continue to rise, company profits significantly recover, free cash flow greatly improves, feeding back into HBM R&D and capacity expansion.
3. AI inference brings a second growth curve
Besides training-end HBM, AI inference servers drive demand for large-capacity server DRAM and enterprise SSDs (QLC), opening incremental space beyond training.
4. Long-term contracts smooth out cycle fluctuations
Leading cloud providers sign 3-5 year long-term supply agreements with deposits and price adjustment mechanisms, partially hedging against the cyclical volatility of memory prices.
Key Risks (Main Market Concerns)
1. Competitors catching up, HBM market share erosion
Samsung is massively expanding HBM4 production, Micron's HBM4 has completed customer certification. Future volume from two competitors will squeeze market share, suppress product prices, and reduce excess profits.
2. Memory cycle has not disappeared, only masked by AI
HBM is structurally tight, but standard DRAM/NAND remain strongly cyclical products.
If large-scale capital expenditures from various players materialize, capacity releases, and consumer electronics demand weakens, traditional memory prices will be pressured again, dragging down overall profits. Management's "end of cycle" judgment is optimistic, not a guaranteed outcome.
3. AI capital expenditure below expectations risk
If large model iteration slows and cloud providers cut capital budgets, HBM demand will be directly impacted, representing the biggest narrative risk. Most HBM prices are tied to long-term contracts, with price adjustments lagging spot market trends, reducing earnings elasticity.
4. Huge capital expenditure pressure
Continuous investment is needed for fabs, EUV equipment, and advanced packaging, with massive capital spending consuming cash flow; any mismatch in expansion pace could lead to future oversupply risks.
5. Geopolitical and domestic competition
Domestic memory manufacturers continue to catch up in general DRAM and NAND; the gap in high-end HBM remains large but will suppress prices of standard memory products in the mid-to-long term; export controls bring supply chain uncertainties.
Key Technical Levels (Korean stock 000660, KRW)
• Strong resistance: Previous historical high range; after positive news is priced in, a significant correction in 2026 is typical of a positive news realization phase.
• Core support: Previous rally launch platform; breaking below would indicate market doubts about the AI memory supercycle narrative.
US ADR SKHY and Korean stock trends are basically synchronized; note ADR is affected by exchange rate, liquidity, and dilution factors.
Three Scenario Simulations
1. Base Case (Neutral)
AI capital expenditure remains robust, HBM continues to be tight, HBM4 ramps smoothly; standard DRAM/NAND cycle oscillates at high levels. The company maintains high profits, but valuation is constrained by cyclical attributes, with stock price fluctuating in line with HBM shipments, memory ASPs, and US tech sector.
2. Optimistic Case
AI training and inference demand continues to explode; Samsung and Micron's HBM yield ramp-up falls short of expectations, Hynix maintains high market share; long-term contracts continue to be fulfilled, earnings consistently beat expectations. Stock price hits new highs.
3. Pessimistic Case
Cloud providers cut AI capital expenditure; competitors massively ramp up HBM production, sharply compressing HBM premiums; general memory capacity oversupply, ASP declines. Earnings are rapidly revised down, stock price deeply corrects.
Key Tracking Indicators
1. Shipment progress and yield of each generation of HBM products, status of customer long-term contracts
2. Spot and contract prices of DRAM and NAND
3. Capital expenditure plans and expansion pace
4. Capital expenditure guidance from North American cloud providers
5. Customer certification and capacity progress of Samsung and Micron HBM
Summary
SK Hynix is a core beneficiary of the AI memory chain but is not a pure growth stock; it inherently carries memory cycle characteristics.
The core investment game: whether the structural incremental growth brought by AI can continuously offset the inherent cyclical fluctuations of traditional memory.BlackRock released a 14-page faith recharge report on BTC yesterday 🫡 I just finished reading the entire text. First, it spent a large portion discussing why BTC halved from its peak, mainly for two reasons. One was the epic deleveraging in October last year, when global BTC leverage exceeded $90 billion, and 80% of it was not from CME but offshore exchanges. The whole bubble had grown very large and shaky, so after the US announced tariff policies on China, it directly popped. BTC leverage dropped by $20 billion in a single day, causing the largest single-day OI decline in history, triggering a series of cascading liquidations.
So this is BlackRock's explanation for why BTC started to fall, but the problem is, logically, after deleveraging, it should have continued to recover and rise. After all, the US stock market was unaffected by the tariff war and kept hitting new highs. So why did BTC seem like an old dog broken in the middle, lying on the ground and unable to get up?
This is the key point explained in the second part of the report. From the launch of BTC ETFs until last October, a total of $60 billion flowed in, while the currently popular AI-related ETFs only saw $10 billion inflow in the same period. So before BTC was hit hard, its capital attraction was 6 times that of AI!
After October, BTC ETFs saw an outflow of $5 billion, while AI-related ETFs had an inflow of $46 billion. In other words, after being hit, AI's capital attraction was 92 times that of BTC 😰
So the scenario is that after deleveraging, things should have been healthier, but because the deleveraging was too severe, it directly destroyed players' confidence, so they stopped playing and turned to AI next door.
However, BlackRock believes this is just cyclical capital rotation. AI funds will eventually return to BTC in the future. Capital does not think BTC is bad; it just finds AI's risk/reward more attractive at this stage.
In the end, BlackRock still strongly recommends everyone allocate 1%-2% of their portfolio to invest in BTC. BTC returns to $70,000 after nearly three months, reaching a 24-hour high of $70,000, up over 7%, hitting a new high since early June. ETH also surged over 18%, briefly reaching $2,300, a new high since May. In the past hour, the entire network liquidated over $1.3 billion, mostly shorts. This round of sharp rally is mainly driven by the resonance of four major engines! First and foremost, the core is an epic short squeeze, with bearish trades concentratedly closed over several months. In about one hour, over $1 billion in BTC short positions were liquidated, marking the largest short liquidation wave since 2021. The price rise triggered a chain of liquidations, and passive buy orders further amplified the rally. On the day, a total of 126,000 traders across the network liquidated $1.92 billion in positions, setting the record for the largest short liquidation day in history. Secondly, there were dual breakthroughs from Trump and regulatory policies. On the 19th, Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and others at the White House, publicly urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. On the same day, the SEC proposed new Regulation Crypto Assets, establishing a clear channel for token financing and introducing for the first time a safe harbor mechanism for investment contracts. The White House convened a meeting with the President, crypto industry executives, and heads of the SEC and CFTC, marking the official entry of digital assets into the national financial strategy discussion level. Thirdly, the U.S. Treasury expanded U.S. Treasury bond repurchases, announcing that the scale of repurchases for 10- to 30-year bonds will be at least doubled, with each operation no less than $4 billion. The new policy will start in September #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
When $BTC surged to 69000, the FOMC minutes were just released.
9 to 3. Three members want to raise interest rates.
The exact quote from the minutes: "If inflation fails to continue declining, policy may need to tighten further."
There is still room for rate hikes, but BTC peaked at 69888, just 112 dollars short of 70000. $ETH followed with an 8% rise. The macro outlook is hawkish, yet risk assets are rising. It doesn't quite add up.
Looking at the market, it seems more like short covering.
There were too many short positions stacked above 69000; once the price broke through, stop losses triggered, programmatic buy orders followed, and momentum pushed it close to 70000. Spot market followed a bit slower, turnover at the high was insufficient, and the price fell back near 68000.
VanEck said the capitulation indicator was triggered, and the correction is nearing its end. That might be right. But this candlestick doesn't look like institutions re-entering, more like shorts were too crowded and got swept away in one wave.
Next, watch two things: whether 68000 can hold sideways, and whether ETF net flows tomorrow are inflows or outflows.
Holding sideways and inflows mean real buying pressure. Failing to hold and outflows mean today was just a meal served by the shorts.Last night, the market experienced a rare divergence: the Federal Reserve minutes released a hawkish signal, yet the crypto market and risk assets rebounded simultaneously.
There are three core reasons:
First, the FOMC minutes showed an increase in hawkish forces within the Federal Reserve, with several officials still worried about inflation recurring, and expectations for rate cuts have not fully opened.
Second, what truly drove the market sentiment reversal was the U.S. Treasury expanding the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases. Although this is not QE, it sent an important signal: the U.S. is beginning to pay attention to the financing pressure caused by excessively high long-term interest rates. Long-term bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed back into risk assets.
Third, crypto regulation saw positive progress. Trump met with industry representatives from Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, and others, while also promoting the CLARITY Act. The market expects U.S. crypto regulation to shift from an "enforcement mode" to a "rules-based mode."
Therefore, last night’s market rise essentially reflected the resonance of two forces:
At the macro level: declining long-term bond yields and a pressured dollar provided liquidity space for the market.
At the industry level: improved regulatory expectations enhanced long-term confidence in crypto assets.
The Federal Reserve focuses on inflation, the Treasury focuses on debt costs, and the market is seeking a balance between the two.
In the short term, funds are reassessing whether the U.S. can control inflation while avoiding further deterioration of long-term financing pressure. $ZEC long near 501 on this trade, 50x leverage, now at 553, floating profit 518%. This is not purely technical slow grinding; it's a combined ignition of news and chips: around the time the Grayscale Zcash Trust document revision and the proposed NYSE Arca listing news came out, the market volume directly surged, shooting from the low of 500.34 straight up to 581.44. Now at around 553, it's digesting after a pullback from the high.
Looking at the 1-hour chart: 500-510 was originally a sideways zone with no demand, suddenly volume picked up, indicating capital is borrowing the narrative to reprice. But the 581 area has already tested resistance; now it's pulling back to the 550-540 range. The key is to see if "there are still buyers after the pump" or if this is just a one-off news-driven move. You can't sleep on 50x leverage in altcoins/old coins; their volatility is more sentiment-driven than SHIB, just with a bit of institutional narrative veneer.
Position-wise:
• Above: 560-565, then the high at 581.44; only breaking 581 looks like the second leg.
• Middle: 540-550, currently grinding around here.
• Below: 520, 500-510. Pulling back to 520 can still be considered consolidation; below 500, the logic of this trade falls apart.
News can bring the first wave, but whether it continues depends on volume and order flow. For now, I won't add drama, just watching the attitude points at 540 and 581.
Will update if there are changes; market feel is more important than headlines. $BTC $ETH #ETH strong rally, short liquidations exceed $1.1 billion
"Ethereum single-day short squeeze of $1.1 billion: Who is paying for this liquidity squeeze?"
Ethereum's large bullish candle directly broke through a dense resistance zone, with over $1.1 billion in derivative short positions liquidated across the network within 24 hours.
Looking at the exchange order book depth chart reveals that the true driver behind this surge was a chain reaction of algorithmic liquidation bots trampling shorts. When the price broke through key defenses, system-triggered forced market buy orders instantly consumed the thin sell orders, creating a classic liquidity void.
Market makers have long passed hedging costs onto retail traders. Currently, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts has been pushed to an extreme 38%, meaning that for every $10,000 long position held, $10 is lost daily just from overnight friction costs. Bulls chasing the rally think they are riding the main wave, but in reality, they are paying expensive tolls to the shorts every day.
The most pragmatic risk control move now is to exit high-leverage long positions, convert holdings to spot, or raise margin ratios above 300%. If the funding rate remains above 0.03% for three consecutive settlement periods, initiating spot-futures arbitrage on the spot side to capture over 30% annualized risk-free spread is far more profitable than fighting at high funding rates. $ETH Crypto Stocks Rally Together: A Bull Market Trumpet or a "Bull Trap Party"?
If the US crypto sector on August 19th was a party, then the bears were probably the only ones not invited.
After BTC rose more than 6% and broke through $68,000, crypto concept stocks collectively surged. Coinbase rose about 10%, Strategy about 13%, Circle about 10%, with related crypto stocks showing a clear broad rally.
More importantly, this was not simply driven by a single company's earnings report or M&A news, but the entire sector rose along with BTC.
This deserves attention.
Because crypto concept stocks actually serve as a "magnifying glass" to observe market risk appetite. When investors only want to buy BTC, it indicates the market is still cautious; when funds start buying exchanges, stablecoin companies, miners, and crypto brokers simultaneously, it shows the market is willing to take on higher risk, betting on the future of the entire industry.
Recently, the US policy environment has also provided a boost to this sentiment.
So I believe this rally cannot simply be classified as an ordinary rebound.
But whether it is a trend reversal still needs to be observed.
Because the biggest feature of crypto concept stocks is their "high volatility." BTC rises 6%, some related stocks rise 10% or even more, which looks very impressive; but once BTC pulls back, these stocks may quickly give back their gains $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ August 20th Noon View by Da Huang
Yesterday, gold prices surged to 4527, mainly driven by the US Treasury repo plan stimulus. The decline in long-term bond yields weakened the US dollar, pushing gold prices sharply higher.
Note, this is only a liquidity adjustment, not QE, and cannot solve long-term debt issues. Once yields rebound later, profit-taking at high levels is likely to concentrate, causing a rapid pullback.
Geopolitical situations remain volatile, providing support for gold as a safe haven, but rising oil prices will lift inflation expectations again, limiting upside potential.
After four hours of continuous gains, gold entered a high-level consolidation. Indicators have fallen back from overbought, weakening short-term momentum. Avoid chasing gains at high levels; wait for a pullback and stabilization before participating.
Reference: Pullback to 4465-4475 area, stop loss at 4450, target 4510-4530 $XAU GRVT trades down at $GRVT $0.29672 (-2.73%), attempting a recovery after bouncing off local support at $GRVT $0.29285. Price is testing short-term resistance at MA5 ($0.29704), while remaining below higher dynamic resistance levels at MA10 ($0.29918) and MA20 ($0.30383). MACD reflects sustained bearish momentum (-0.00193).
Reclaiming $0.29704 opens a path toward MA10 resistance at $0.29918 and the local high at $0.31119. #FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #OKX.ai $BTC is rallying, is the bear market over??
Let's review the highest and lowest points of the previous two bear markets:
1. December 2017 - December 2018, a full year, drop from 19000 to 3300
2. November 2021 - November 2022, a full year, drop from 69000 to 18000
It can be seen that the last two cycles each lasted about a year in terms of time.
But the drop in 2017 was 82%, and in 2021 it was 73%.
This time, from last October until now, it's also close to a year, but the overall drop is only about 50%.
In terms of time, it almost matches, but in terms of drop, it seems this time the decline isn't deep enough.
So do you think this is the bottom now???
$BTC $ETH Originally, when the overall market is doing well, I generally don't want to look at small coins because it's tiring and I don't make much money. But since I started talking about it, I'll finish. Yesterday, I saw that $btw contracts were continuously flowing in while spot was flowing out. I checked spot on other exchanges, and indeed the trading volume increased. Then this morning, I saw the price dropped by nearly half, but there wasn't much liquidation of long positions. So I guess these long positions were actively closed. Why actively close at this time? It could be their own withdrawal or the withdrawal of copy-trading wild whales. It might continue, but it's harder to bet now because you don't know if the longs are the counterparty or the shorts are the counterparty. Alright, that's it. I won't talk about this anymore because I feel my $BTC is still going to rise #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
It seems the Federal Reserve is not entirely united internally; is this just a smokescreen or are the divisions really starting?
The vote was 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, with 3 members directly supporting a rate hike. This signal is definitely not very friendly for short-term BTC and ETH, since there was a big rally earlier, and now the market has to reassess rate cut expectations.
But I don't think we should immediately interpret this as "the Fed is going to hike rates again." What really matters are the upcoming inflation and employment data. As long as the data continues to cool down, the voices of these 3 hawks will eventually be repriced by the market.
Regarding BTC, I remain cautious in the short term. There was already a rally earlier, and I personally think the area around 70,000 is a key top for this wave. If it really reaches there, I will consider reducing positions or even looking for shorting opportunities. But in the long term, I am still bullish on BTC; these two views are not contradictory.
I am actually more focused on ETH. Its volatility is clearly greater than BTC's. Once risk appetite returns, ETH is very likely to continue outperforming; but conversely, if the market weakens, ETH will also fall faster. So if it rallies to around 2300–2400, I won't stubbornly chase it.
In short: BTC is about direction, ETH is about volatility. Watch out for short-term pullbacks, but I remain optimistic in the long term. $BTC $ETH $BTC
First things first: macro (monthly chart) plan updated
With a major move just performed by the market in a very short period of recent time, quite literally in one day, it has implications on the larger timeframe due to the sheer extent of the move, but also the volume and breach of the general rhythm of boredom we saw recently.
That's a good thing. The fact we paid a short loss for it is less favourable.
$BTC
#FOMC9To3Split
#BTCBreaks69000 Google's $MRVL up to $12.2 billion stock option agreement triggers a revaluation of ASIC, with the core issue being whether the initial unlocking of only 1.36 million shares under the performance clause can support institutional risk appetite before the August 27 earnings report.
The exercise price set at $206.58 reflects long-term capital's valuation anchoring on the high-end ASIC computing power supply chain, with market performance showing capital reallocating back to the customized chip chain.
In terms of driving factors, actual order fulfillment constraints outweigh short-term news catalysts, with institutional positions prioritizing the evaluation of the pace at which every $500 million in procurement unlocks a batch of stock options before the earnings report, to measure the real contribution of computing power expenditure to profitability.
The bullish scenario requires the August 27 earnings report to confirm a steep procurement slope for customized chips, and that U.S. stock risk appetite does not deteriorate due to inflation data fluctuations. If guidance verifies the smooth achievement of the first-year unlocking condition of 1.36 million shares, institutional long positions will further increase bets on the potential $120 billion procurement scale's forward premium. The failure signal would be a collective pullback in high-valuation chip stocks triggered by macro liquidity tightening.
The bearish scenario is triggered if cloud giants slow down their computing power capital expenditure pace, causing the annual procurement amount to fail to drive the timely unlocking of 240 batches of stock options. If the order fulfillment progress disclosed in the earnings report lags market expectations, the previously rapidly accounted valuation premium will face concentrated compression. The failure signal would be procurement agreements being realized earlier than expected.
Currently, institutional positions are highly sensitive to positive pricing, with the exercise price of $206.58 becoming the key price benchmark for the market to test the certainty of forward growth.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the actual order guidance disclosed in the August 27 earnings report and the position adjustment dynamics in the U.S. tech sector.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大After a 7.1% surge in $BTC, 44,300 BTC were suddenly transferred to exchanges.
BTC achieved its best single-day performance since February, but many short-term holders began selling as the price rose.
Analyst Darkfost stated that after BTC price broke through the short-term holder cost line of about $67,100, over 44,300 BTC in profit were transferred to exchanges, marking the largest short-term profit-taking move this year.
Combining related news, the driving forces behind this surge can be analyzed as:
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall immediately
- Trump stated at a crypto conference that the U.S. is considering purchasing a large amount of Bitcoin and is again pushing the CLARITY Act.
So this rally was not without catalysts, but after the positive push in price, it also released pent-up selling pressure.
Although transfers to exchanges do not equal all sales, it indicates that short-term holdings are starting to loosen.
Further observation is needed; if the market can absorb this potential selling pressure and hold its position, the breakout will have a foundation to continue.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Gold price breaks through $4,500, hitting a two-month high. Since August, gold has gained nearly 9%, recording the largest weekly increase of the year just last week. Compared to BTC's wild ride from 62,800 to 70,000, gold's rise feels more like boiling a frog slowly—you feel it's going up, and indeed it has risen quite a bit.
The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term bond yields to decline and the dollar to weaken. Coupled with the September rate hike expectations dropping to around 30%, the logic of real interest rates is reinforced. Simply put: the lower the probability of a rate hike, the more attractive non-yielding assets become. Gold and BTC share highly overlapping driving logic in this round.
But there's something interesting.
CoinDesk data shows gold rose 10% in August, while Bitcoin has been relatively weak over the past nine months. Both are non-yielding assets and share the inflation-hedging narrative, yet gold is steadily pushing upward while BTC is highly volatile. Bank of America strategist Hartnett has turned bullish on gold, but institutions remain cautious about BTC.
For gold, after surpassing 4,500, the next hurdle is 4,600-4,700. Structural supports include central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakening dollar credit. However, the hot AI investment trend also siphons off funds from gold prices—money is being drawn into tech stocks, so gold's buying momentum isn't as strong as expected.
In any case, the rise of gold and BTC in this cycle is driven by the same underlying logic. One is steady, the other wild—it's up to you to choose.
$XAUT $BTC $SNDK The scale of U.S. debt has officially surpassed $40 trillion, equivalent to a per capita debt of $116,000. This time, the U.S. stock market is truly terrified by the U.S. debt, and the even scarier part is yet to come. The U.S. Treasury Department has personally stepped in to stabilize long-term bonds. Treasury Secretary Yellen suddenly announced that the repurchase scale of 10-30 year U.S. debt will at least double, using short-term debt issuance funds to buy back long-term debt. Many say this is a disguised money printing to save the U.S. stock market, but what she really wants to save is not the stock market, but the U.S. debt. Because long-term interest rates are too high, the U.S. government is in great distress. The larger the debt, the more expensive the interest; the more expensive the interest, the more money must be borrowed. The more borrowed, the market demands even higher interest rates. This is the real dangerous cycle for the U.S. The Congressional Budget Office says that if this continues, by 2055 the debt will soar to $150 trillion. Note this is official data. Yellen’s repurchase of government bonds is meant to delay this ticking time bomb and temporarily lower long-term financing costs. But a few tens of billions in repurchases cannot solve the $40 trillion debt. She can suppress yields for a day or two but cannot suppress the fiscal deficit and massive bond issuance. This time, U.S. debt is temporarily rescued in the short term, but long-term problems are even more exposed. If U.S. bond yields can stabilize next, the AI bull market will continue; if U.S. debt gets out of control again, the first to be hit will be high-valuation tech stocks! Over 300 million $SPCX shares unlock tomorrow, and I am directly bearish. 📉
The previous 900 million unlock rallied because price was below IPO, driving a squeeze.
This time is different with price back above IPO value.
Employee shares are unlocking, and they will likely sell rather than coordinate.
Long term I remain optimistic on $SPCX, but it is time to short.🚨 $BTC hits $70K, $ETH nears $2,266! But don’t get excited just yet. 👀
Is this rally really driven by new capital?
At present, short covering might be one of the main drivers. The U.S. Treasury eases long-term bond pressure, 30-year Treasury yields fall, and over $1.4 billion in shorts have been liquidated.📈💥
But on the other hand, caution is warranted:
⚠️ Limited change in real yields
⚠️ Fed meeting minutes remain hawkish
⚠️ U.S. debt exceeding $40 trillion still persists
So the question is simple:
Without sustained spot buying, could the $70K breakout just be a brief short squeeze?
I’ll be watching for a pullback first, rather than chasing the rally.
Stay cautious. NFA. 🧐
#BTC #ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #BTCBreaks69000 #CryptoNews【White House Sets Tone Overnight, BTC Breaks 70,000, The Real Star of This Rally Is Regulation】
On August 20th, the market finally received the long-awaited catalyst. BTC surged directly from around $65,000 to above $70,000, with a nearly 8% intraday increase, marking the largest single-day gain since March this year. Ethereum was even stronger, rising nearly 20% at one point. Over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within an hour, the largest short squeeze since 2021.
This rebound was not driven by technical factors — both news and capital flows played a role.
What truly ignited the market was the White House meeting with crypto industry executives. Trump convened CEOs from leading institutions such as Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink at the White House, with the CFTC Chairman and SEC Chairman also attending. The core message of the meeting was very clear: the U.S. is competing with other countries for dominance in financial markets, and the crypto industry must develop domestically in the U.S. Several signals were sent from this meeting:
The most important is the legislative progress of the "Clarity Act." The Coinbase CEO confirmed at the meeting that Congress plans to vote on the bill on September 15. The core task of this bill is to legally clarify the boundary between "crypto securities" and "crypto commodities," ending years of jurisdictional tug-of-war between the SEC and CFTC. Once passed, the regulatory benefits accumulated over the past year will be legally fixed for the long term.
The SEC also proposed new crypto asset financing rules, planning to exempt certain digital asset issuances from securities registration requirements, allowing startups to legally raise equity and capital through tokens. The CFTC announced that Hyperliquid is entering the U.S. market in a compliant manner, marking the first time a decentralized trading protocol has entered the mainstream regulatory framework.
Another driving force comes from the macro level. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, doubling the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury repos at minimum. The market interprets this as a mild quantitative easing, directly suppressing long-term U.S. Treasury yields and boosting overall risk asset sentiment.
Putting these two pieces of news together: regulation has defined the rules of the game, and fiscal policy has eased liquidity pressure — BTC found a reason to break out after hovering around 65,000 for a month.
Looking back at August, BTC rebounded nearly 8,000 points from 62,500 to 70,000 in three weeks. This rally has been intertwined with oil prices from the start, from BTC dipping to 62,528 when oil tankers were attacked on August 13, to breaking 70,000 after the White House meeting set the tone. The direction has been controlled by policy and geopolitics. AIX’s strategy triggered a long signal near 65,000, with the system judging that regulatory benefits combined with improved liquidity have clarified the short-term direction. The key observation range for AIX next is 70,000-71,000 — if volume expands and holds above, the upside target is 73,000-75,000; if volume contracts and pulls back, 65,000-67,000 is the support zone.
The core logic for the second half of the year has shifted from "will there be rate hikes" to "when will the regulatory framework be implemented." Once the "Clarity Act" passes the vote in September, the crypto market will gain a true legal foundation — this is not a short-term sentiment rebound but a structural institutional dividend.A four-year cycle, the market always gives bottom signals at the same nodes, yet the vast majority still hesitate and miss out.
The retracement range is narrowing each time: from the early 93%, to 85%, 77%, 73%, and so far this cycle's largest pullback is about 55%, becoming "gentler" each time.
Looking at the timeline, the pattern is as clear as if it were set:
· Three bull markets, each lasting 1064 days;
· Two bear markets, each lasting 364 days;
· The current bear market has lasted 312 days, still a short way from the "historical average."
According to this rhythm, after the final dip completes, it will be a window for phased accumulation and long-term holding. Hold the chips until around 2029, then calmly face the next down cycle around 2030.
Don't forget, over 90% of people worldwide have yet to engage with crypto assets. Once regulations clarify and tokenized stablecoins become widespread, a huge influx of new funds and users will pour in. This opportunity deserves serious attention, not just watching from the sidelines again. $BTC #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 $SKHY $SKHYNIX $xSKHY SK Hynix has announced a record shareholder return plan: spending 40 trillion KRW to repurchase approximately 24.07 million common shares, all of which will be canceled after the repurchase is completed. Based on the closing price of 1.662 million KRW per share on the day before the board resolution, this repurchase accounts for about 3.3% of the company's total shares, planned to run from August 20 to November 19. This is not an ordinary treasury stock repurchase. If the company simply holds the shares on its books, they could be resold in the future; however, "repurchase and cancellation" means these shares will be permanently removed from the total share capital. With profits remaining unchanged, earnings per share and the proportion of existing shareholders' holdings will increase. Based on a static estimate of a 3.3% cancellation ratio, the theoretical increase in earnings per share is about 3.4%. Why is SK Hynix willing to allocate 40 trillion KRW at once? The answer primarily comes from the cash flow generated by AI storage. As of the end of Q2, the company’s net cash was about 69 trillion KRW. Growth in demand for HBM, AI server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs has enabled SK Hynix to continuously break profit records. Management believes the current stock price does not fully reflect the company's technological competitiveness, cash generation ability, and long-term growth potential, so they chose to implement a large-scale repurchase after a significant stock price pullback. But the repurchase is only part of this plan. SK Hynix has also set a shareholder return target for cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027, starting #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
I am the mid-term intelligence analyst. BTC's surge from 64K to over 69K is not just a retail frenzy; it's a combined effect of the expansion of long-term US Treasury repo lowering yields, over $650 million net inflow into spot ETFs for three consecutive days, and $1 billion of short positions liquidated within an hour. This represents a "macro easing + capital confirmation + short squeeze boost" triple pulse.
In the mid-term, I expect a volatile upward trend, not a straight bull run. 70K is a psychological and previous dense trading zone; if it breaks and holds above 70K on the daily chart, the next target is 72K–75K (overlapping triangle measurement and inverse head and shoulders targets). However, if 70K fails to hold and there's no buying support at 68K, it will likely retrace to 67.5K–68K to consolidate for a few days before pushing higher!
Bottom line: As long as 64K–65K is not broken, the bullish structure remains; continuous ETF inflows are the mid-term fuel for sustained momentum!
$BTC
$ETH Update on August 20: Bitcoin ETF market sees volume and price soaring together, US dollar crash triggers a surge in the crypto space
1. ETF market: The full data is not yet available, but the main Bitcoin ETFs have already updated.
Yesterday, BTC net inflow was 7,995 coins; Ethereum data is still incomplete.
Bitcoin's net inflow hit the highest level in three months, marking a very important turning point.
2. Fear and Greed Index is at 62, indicating greed, having directly entered the greed zone. Actually, there were signs yesterday; despite little change in BTC price, the index surged to 46, which is quite unusual.
3. btc.d index is 59.39; only a small portion of altcoins have exploded, most have not yet.
4. M2 indicator remains in a high-level oscillation zone. A logic mentioned earlier: if M2 overall stays in a high-level oscillation without significant pullbacks, it leaves a large room for Bitcoin to perform, so this rally is not surprising.
The latest M2 data has reached November 5, breaking historical highs again.
Summary: There was a significant rally last night; this morning Bitcoin stayed around 70,000, with Ethereum performing even stronger. The whole network is searching for news, but there is no direct news. The only strongly related factor is the US dollar index. Yesterday, as the US dollar index plummeted, Bitcoin experienced a surge almost simultaneously.
US dollar falls, non-dollar assets rise. Makes sense. So when will this rally end? For now, let's observe when the US dollar stops falling.
$BTC Bitcoin rises to 70,000, why do I still not believe the bear market is over?
On August 16, when Bitcoin was still consolidating around 63,000, I indicated that the rebound rally was not over yet.
The next day, Bitcoin started to rise and yesterday it broke through the July 21 high with increased volume, reaching nearly 70,000 at its peak.
At the same time, there have been obvious recent regulatory positives:
Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and other crypto industry leaders, as well as heads of the SEC and CFTC, pushing for the CLARITY Act to advance quickly again;
The SEC proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, providing new registration exemption paths for some token issuances, further easing regulatory uncertainty.
Stimulated by these positives, the market’s voices calling for a "bull return" have clearly increased.
Although this rebound slightly exceeded my previous expectation near 67,700, I still currently believe:
This rise is most likely still a rebound, not a reversal.
Why?
1. This round of rise has obvious short squeeze factors
Besides the positive news, the 65,500–67,500 range previously concentrated a large amount of short liquidation liquidity.
After the price broke through, chained liquidations further amplified the upward movement.
In other words:
The news is responsible for ignition, the liquidation mechanism is responsible for amplification.
But above 70,000, short liquidation liquidity is clearly reduced; without new funds continuously pushing, the short squeeze rally alone is unlikely to sustain a continuous rise.
2. Price structure and volume still do not look like a trend reversal
The rebound rally since July 1, 2026, like the previous two rebound rallies (Nov 21, 2025–Jan 13, 2026, and Feb 6, 2026–May 6, 2026), has been unfolding along a rebound channel; yesterday’s surge belongs to the C wave of this rebound rally.
At the same time, compared to the previous two rebounds, the trading volume in this round of rise has not shown a particularly obvious increase.
A true trend reversal usually requires stronger sustainability and volume support.
Currently, these two signals are still not obvious enough.
3. On-chain indicators still lack typical confirmation of a bear market bottom
LTH-RP and CVDD are important long-term indicators for observing Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
Historically, several bear market bottoms have broken below LTH-RP and landed exactly on the CVDD line.
Currently, CVDD is about 48,900, LTH-RP about 49,600, and Bitcoin’s previous low was about 57,800, which is still clearly distant from these two indicators.
This does not prove the bear market definitely won’t end, but at least indicates:
There is still a lack of typical cycle bottom confirmation signals.
4. There is still a large amount of liquidation liquidity below
The 47,000–57,000 range still contains a large amount of liquidation liquidity, especially concentrated near 50,000–52,000.
This means there is still a relatively obvious potential price magnet area below.
Therefore, before the price structure shows obvious changes, I still will not directly judge that a new bull market has started just because of a strong rebound.
Of course, I will not stubbornly stick to one view.
If Bitcoin can continue to rise with increasing volume and effectively break through rebound channel 3, the current rebound structure may change, and I will re-evaluate the judgment of "whether the bear market is over."
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.$ETH surged nearly 20% in one day, who's fueling the fire behind the scenes?
$BTC rose 7%, $ETH up 18%, SOL up 11%, XRP up 10%, and HYPE skyrocketed 22%.
This is not an ordinary rebound; it's a systemic short squeeze. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated more than $1.45 billion, with shorts bleeding heavily. The largest single liquidation came from Bitget's ETH position—$32 million evaporated instantly.
What exactly happened? Three major positive factors ignited simultaneously.
First, the U.S. Treasury's "targeted liquidity injection." On August 19, the Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases—from $2 billion each time directly to over $4 billion. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield instantly dropped from the 19-year high of 5.34% to 5.19%. When long-term rates fall, risk assets take off on the spot.
Second, the White House crypto summit + new SEC regulations. On the same day, Trump convened CEOs of crypto giants like Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini at the White House, publicly pressuring Congress to push the CLARITY Act. The SEC had just released the "Regulation Crypto Assets" draft the day before—providing crypto projects with an exemption channel for financing up to $75 million per year. Washington overnight transformed from "regulator" to "cheerleader."
Third, whales are aggressively buying. Thirteen hours ago, a whale deposited 20 million USDC into Hyperliquid, leveraged 4x to long 20,000 ETH, with unrealized profits exceeding $6.66 million. Another whale entity bought 13,300 ETH within 7 hours. Smart money is accumulating while retail investors hesitate.
But the most noteworthy signal is that ETH's gains are more than double BTC's. This is not a broad rally led by BTC; funds are systemically rotating from BTC to ETH. The biggest beneficiary of the SEC's regulatory easing is the Ethereum ecosystem.
Technically, ETH has re-crossed above the weekly EMA50 "golden line" for the first time since the bear market. The Platåberget testnet upgrade by Glamsterdam officially launched today—Ethereum is announcing its comeback through a triple resonance of technical, fundamental, and policy factors.
But don't forget—after shorts are liquidated, who will take over?
Next, watch two things: whether the CLARITY Act passes in September, and what the Federal Reserve says at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.
Is this a "policy-driven bull" or a "real bull"? The answer may come in the next two weeks.
But for tonight—let the shorts cry a little first. $BTC $ETH Brothers, let me explain why Bitcoin has surged so much
Woke up to find Bitcoin jumped from 64,000 to 70,000, and Ethereum even more aggressively, up 19% in one day. The whole network liquidated $2.98 billion, with shorts accounting for $2.74 billion — the surge is built on a pile of corpses.
Why the rise?
The Treasury quietly injected liquidity — long-term Treasury repo scale doubled, US bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, so money naturally flowed into crypto.
The White House held a meeting to support it — Trump held a meeting, called on Congress to pass regulatory bills, and even mentioned setting up a Bitcoin reserve.
Short squeeze — previously bearish with leveraged short positions clustered, once the price broke key levels, a chain of liquidations forced exchanges to buy back to close positions, pushing prices higher and higher.
Why is Ethereum even stronger? It fell deeply, so it has more room to rebound, plus after breaking the $2,000 psychological level, chasing buyers flooded in.
Strong's two cents: This wave is driven by liquidations, not real cash spot buying, so be cautious of short-term pullbacks. But the mid-to-long-term direction is clear — liquidity has loosened, regulation is clearer, even the White House is talking about buying crypto, it's different from before AI trading in 2026 is spreading from chips all the way to power systems. Data centers require gas turbines, transformers, transmission equipment, and a stable power grid. Traditional industrial assets, once shunned by the capital markets for many years, have suddenly taken center stage in the tech wave. In the second quarter of this year, GE Vernova's orders reached $24.2 billion, an 88% year-over-year increase; backlog orders rose to $176 billion, with electrification orders related to data centers exceeding $5 billion in the first half of the year, more than double the total for 2025. Meanwhile, GE Aerospace's second-quarter revenue was $13.3 billion, up 21% year-over-year, with orders increasing 17% to $16.5 billion, and free cash flow growing 43% to $3 billion. Both companies raised their full-year guidance simultaneously. It's hard to imagine that these popular assets were once packed into the same vast empire, which in 2008 needed government credit, Buffett, and capital markets to simultaneously bail it out. GE's turnaround is also quite special. It did not restore the original company intact but spent more than a decade selling assets and repaying debts, ultimately splitting itself into three companies. A name that has dominated American business history for over a century earned the qualification for renewed growth by ending its old era. From light bulbs to the world's largest market capitalization, GE once represented America itself. In 1892, Edison’s companies merged with Thomson-Houston to form General Electric. For more than a century thereafter, GE... Stop asking "Can Dogecoin get back to $1" and look at this set of data first 🐕$DOGE
DOGE has been stuck around $0.07 for almost two weeks now, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 2%, looking exactly like a meme forgotten by the market.
Three counterintuitive realities:
Elon Musk's filter is broken: Back then, everyone shouted "X Pay integrates DOGE," but X Money's first public beta only supported fiat currency, excluding Dogecoin. The formula "Elon Musk's shout = surge" basically failed this year.
ETF didn't save it either: Since August, DOGE spot ETF has had multiple days with zero net inflow, with a total net inflow of just over $12 million. Institutions simply don't buy in.
About 5 billion new coins are minted annually, unlimited inflation + no new narrative = it can only rely on the overall market to drive it, unable to form an independent trend.
In short: Today's DOGE is not the "next 100x coin," but a high-volatility existing supply speculative toy. If you want to bet on a rebound, watch the $0.068–0.070 support and $0.073–0.075 breakout levels; if it falls below $0.067, the next stop is $0.05–0.06.
$DOGE There's a recent saying that's quite accurate:
The crypto market isn't lacking stories right now; it's lacking money.
This phrase fits especially well with $BTC and $ETH.
Look, there are plenty of narratives now—ETFs, interest rate cut expectations, institutional allocations, staking yields, Layer2 ecosystem revival, AI combined with on-chain—all of these could be written about in detail.
But the problem is, without liquidity, no matter how attractive the story is, prices tend to stay dormant.
Why is $BTC getting more attention at this time?
Because it is the most direct liquidity receiver.
As soon as the macro environment loosens a bit and funds want to buy crypto assets, they usually buy $BTC first—after all, it has the largest consensus, best liquidity, and easy access.
$ETH is more like the second phase player.
When the market is less tense, people start to consider whether there are more elastic assets, ecosystem recovery, staking, and on-chain income stories.
So, in this market cycle, what matters isn't who released the coolest roadmap or whose project slogan is louder,
but whether the money has returned.
If liquidity doesn't come back, $BTC can only fluctuate, and $ETH will be more volatile and torturous.
If liquidity really returns, $BTC will likely move first, and $ETH might surge even more afterward.
That's why talking about $BTC and $ETH together is very popular now.
One represents the security feeling of big money,
The other represents the market's risk appetite.
Simply put, the market is like a car.
Stories are the navigation,
Liquidity is the fuel.
Without fuel, no matter how advanced the navigation is, the car can only stay put and run the air conditioner.Today’s $BTC surge feels not just like a simple technical rebound, but more like a combination of news, capital flow, and short squeeze pushing it up together.
Previously, $BTC hovered around 62,000–66,000 USD for several weeks, with many people leaning bearish and a lot of short positions accumulated. Once it broke through the resistance near 66,000, shorts were forced to stop loss, causing a short squeeze, which made the rise especially fast, shooting straight up to around 69,000–70,000.
There are several main reasons for this rally:
First, the US Treasury increased the scale of long-term bond repurchases, which the market interpreted as liquidity support, easing pressure on the dollar and long-term yields, making it easier for risk assets to attract capital.
Second, after $BTC broke key resistance, the short liquidation amplified the gains, forcing more people to buy back as the price rose.
Third, regulatory sentiment is also warming up, with news like the White House crypto meeting and the SEC’s new framework making the market feel the policy environment is less oppressive than before.
From the chart perspective, $BTC has now surged to around 69,000–70,000. The short-term trend is definitely strong, but this level is not suitable for reckless chasing. My view is that as long as 68,000–69,000 holds, the market remains bullish; if it can break and hold above 70,000 with volume, we can look further up to 72,000–76,000.
The above is just my personal opinion.
$BTC
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC This surge in BTC has crushed the shorts, but don’t rush to blindly chase the long now!
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidations totaled about $3.1 billion, with short liquidations alone at $2.56 billion, accounting for over 82%.
Simply put, a lot of people were betting on BTC to drop, but once the price broke through a key resistance level, shorts started getting aggressively liquidated. Shorts were forced to buy back → price kept rising → more shorts got liquidated → continued upward movement. This is a classic "rise—short squeeze—rise again" pattern.
I think there are two main reasons for this sudden BTC rally:
First, market expectations for liquidity have improved, risk sentiment has clearly warmed up, and BTC, as a highly volatile asset, naturally attracts capital first.
Second, there were too many shorts piled up beforehand. Once a key level is broken, shorts collectively stop loss and get liquidated, and forced buying further amplifies the price increase.
But note, the rally caused by liquidations can’t last forever.
The shorts that needed to be liquidated have been partially cleared; forced buy-ins are a one-time buying force. Whether BTC can continue to rise depends not only on liquidation data but also on spot trading volume, ETF capital, and whether new funds keep flowing in.
If the price keeps rising but volume doesn’t keep up and new buying doesn’t increase significantly, be cautious: the price might spike and then pull back.
So my current thinking is simple: as long as the trend isn’t broken, you can be bullish, but don’t blindly chase the highs.
Next, it depends on whether BTC can be supported by real capital in this wave, rather than just relying on short squeezes to push the price up.August 20
Gold Midday
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
The main driver behind this round of strong gold price rally is the U.S. Treasury's expansion of the long-term bond repurchase program, raising the single repurchase limit for 10–30 year U.S. Treasuries to 4 billion, directly pushing the 30-year Treasury yield down from highs and weakening the dollar index. Gold prices surged yesterday, breaking through 4500, reaching a high of 4527.
Key clarification: This is a liquidity adjustment tool, not QE, only temporarily easing the pressure from long-term bond sales. It cannot fundamentally solve the long-term issues of the U.S.'s high deficit and 40 trillion debt; if long-term bond yields rebound again, profit-taking at high levels could easily trigger a rapid pullback.
Geopolitically, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue, with ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. Oil prices remain relatively strong, creating a two-way hedge: geopolitical risk supports gold prices, but rising oil prices will again awaken inflation expectations, limiting the sustained explosive power of the bulls.
Technical Analysis
4-hour chart: After consecutive bullish candles, the price enters a high-level consolidation correction. RSI has fallen back from the overbought zone, short-term upward momentum has weakened. The midday priority is a consolidation repair approach, avoiding chasing gains at high levels, waiting for a pullback to support confirmation before positioning.
Strategy: Buy between 4482-4465, stop loss at 4450, target 4527-4550
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, enter the market cautiously
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $XAU BTC pulled from 64,000 to about 70,000 yesterday, closing at 69,200–69,300, breaking the 60,000–66,000 range. ETH was even stronger, rising from 1,910 to 2,250–2,310, about 17%–20% in a single day. Today both are digesting at high levels, first as confirmation, not as a new trend completion.
Three things combined:
1. The Treasury raised the long-term bond repurchase limit to at least $4 billion per transaction, the market reads this as "QE lite," causing long-end yields to fall.
2. The White House is pushing the Clarity Act, and the SEC is easing fundraising exemptions. Funds first buy BTC, with ETH following more aggressively as a higher beta.
3. ETH lingered too long between 1,870–1,950, with short positions stacked below 2,000. Once it broke through, shorts were squeezed, triggering liquidations and accelerating the move. ETFs are also seeing continuous inflows.
The minutes are actually hawkish, but funds are pricing in regulatory expectations and liquidity, not a September rate hike.
BTC is first looking at 68,000–69,000, ETH first at 2,000. If volume can't keep up, it will be a pullback.
NFA