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Today $BTC is around 77,700 USD, down about 0.3% in 24 hours, with an intraday low dipping to 76,400 USD before being pulled back by funds. BTC is not strong right now, but it hasn't completely broken down either. 76,400 USD is a short-term level to watch; only by reclaiming 78,500 USD can the market catch a breather.
$OKB is currently about 110.4 USD, having briefly dropped to 108.8 USD during the session. The previously mentioned 110 USD level is now being tested. If this level holds, OKB can still be considered range-bound.
Mainstream coins generally lack momentum today. $ETH fell about 1.2%, back near 2,420 USD; $SOL dropped 1.7%, just holding at 100 USD; $XRP fell 1.9%, and $DOGE also dropped about 1%. The simultaneous weakness in these coins indicates that funds are temporarily unwilling to broadly lift the market; the so-called “altcoin broad rally” has yet to truly appear.
Interestingly, some older coins are bucking the trend. $FIL rose about 13%, $UNI up 9.4%, $CRV up 4.8%, and $ARB up 2.6%. There is no new news fully explaining FIL’s gains this round; it’s more a technical breakout following a sudden volume surge, with the market conveniently reviving interest in decentralized storage and AI data demand.
The rise of UNI and ARB has a more coherent explanation: Robinhood Chain has seen recent active trading, Uniswap has captured more DEX volume, and Arbitrum benefits from infrastructure and revenue return expectations. CRV’s strength following suit shows that funds are indeed revisiting the old DeFi narrative.
Two other popular coins also reflect sentiment changes. $HYPE remains near 83 USD, basically flat; $PUMP fell about 3.7%. HYPE holding up indicates ongoing market interest in on-chain contracts and trading platforms. PUMP weakening suggests that hype purely driven by Meme issuance no longer excites funds as much as a few days ago.
Today’s money hasn’t fully exited; it’s selecting coins with sufficient liquidity, low prices, and compelling stories.
Just personal analysis, not investment advice
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 BTC fell below 77,000, why did the "digital gold" narrative fail amid the oil price storm?
The US and Iran are at it again.
On September 1, the US military launched airstrikes targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps inside Iran. Iran retaliated with missile drones. Trump warned, "The next strike will be stronger and at a higher level."
Brent crude oil rose 4.5% in two days, up 51% year-to-date, breaking through $96 per barrel.
War. Oil prices surge. Inflation is coming.
Isn't Bitcoin "digital gold"? Shouldn't it be rising?
Result: BTC dropped from an intraday high of $79,166 to as low as $76,762. $115 million long positions were liquidated within an hour.
Many are confused: war is happening, so why is the safe-haven asset falling?
Because you are using an outdated script to interpret a completely different play.
The narrative "Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset" is based on a specific logic:
Central banks print money → fiat currency depreciates → Bitcoin appreciates.
This logic was correct in 2020-2021. In the era of massive liquidity, all assets rose, with Bitcoin surging the most.
But now it's 2026.
The script is completely reversed:
Oil prices surge → inflation rises → Fed hikes interest rates → US dollar strengthens → all risk assets come under pressure.
In the face of "rate hike expectations," all non-yielding assets are victims—whether Bitcoin, gold, or that unopened sports card in your hand.
Spot gold was still at $4,697 on August 25, but has since fallen below $4,300. It dropped nearly $400 in less than a week.
Gold is also falling.
And it’s falling harder—with a decline exceeding 7%.
If you truly believe the "digital gold" narrative means BTC should move in tandem with gold, then tell me: when gold is falling, why should Bitcoin rise?
It’s not that the "digital gold" narrative has failed. Rather, the entire "non-yielding asset" sector is being collectively harvested by rate hike expectations.
On August 28, Fed Chair Powell delivered his most hawkish speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
He said: if there is no confidence that inflation will return to 2%, the Fed "has more work to do."
In one sentence, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 66%.
Today, CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates steady in September is only 33.1%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike is 66.9%.
Just a week ago, this number was around 35%.
The market completed a thorough expectation reset in five days.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil transportation.
Now, supertankers passing through are extremely limited; on Monday, only five commodity transport ships crossed the waterway. Two oil tankers fully loaded with Saudi crude were attacked.
Iran’s crude oil exports plummeted from 2 million barrels per day in March to 220,000–255,000 barrels per day in August.
Supply is cut off. Prices must rise.
When oil prices rise, inflation rises. When inflation rises, the Fed must hike rates.
This is a logical chain, each link connected, with BTC stuck at the last link.
Bitcoin has never been a "universal safe-haven asset."
It only acts as a safe haven under specific conditions—when central banks are printing money.
When central banks tighten the faucet, Bitcoin, like all other risk assets, can only fall together.
Don’t blame Bitcoin. Blame yourself for treating it as an all-protective shield.
In the face of rate hikes, there is no digital gold, only digital risk assets.
The market is now focused on two key points:
September 11—August CPI data. If it’s below expectations, the probability of a rate hike falls, and BTC may violently rebound. If it exceeds expectations, the rate hike is confirmed, and BTC may further decline.
September 15-16—Fed meeting. Rate hike or not, the shoe drops.
The "digital gold" narrative is not dead.
It’s just temporarily overshadowed by "rate hike fear."
The wind will always stop. But you must ensure you’re still at the table.
Not every drop is doomsday. Sometimes, it’s just the market telling you—the story you’ve believed in might be more complicated than you think.
📌 Those who understand this logical chain won’t panic during a crash.
$BTC $CL $BZ #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 If you look beyond the headlines, the market is mainly reacting to rising expectations of a potential rate hike. But expectations aren’t reality.
Once September’s nonfarm payroll and CPI figures are released, I don’t expect Walsh and the Fed to have much justification for tightening policy.
For now, the most balanced stance is likely to stay on hold — neither raising nor cutting rates.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds
#RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes
#DellAIServerBeat #Interest Rate Hike Expectations Double, Why Can't BTC Drop?
After Wash's speech, the CME interest rate hike probability doubled from 35%. Half a year ago, such a level of macro bearishness would have caused BTC to drop at least 5% initially. But this time, it dipped to a low of $77,396 and then bounced back.
It can't drop. Why?
A report from Bitfinex yesterday pointed out the key: this August rally was mainly driven by spot buying, not a leveraged illusion. Although open interest contracts are rising, the basis remains restrained—indicating longs are not borrowed money but real cash is being used to buy.
On-chain data also confirms this: whale addresses continue to accumulate, while retail addresses keep handing over chips. Big fish eating small fish, silently and steadily. $BTC
But on the ETF side, signals are mixed.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw nearly $1 billion net inflow, showing warm sentiment. But on Friday, suddenly $200 million ran out; on Monday, $200 million came back. Quick in and out, short-term funds are playing the macro window with no directional consensus.
So in the same market, three sets of data are conflicting:
· Interest rate hike probability at 65%, BTC didn't crash;
· Whales are buying, retail is selling;
· $ETH dropped on Friday, returned on Monday, a back-and-forth tug of war.
Some are selling, some are buying. Who has the stronger force? The data doesn't give a clear answer.
At this position, no movement.
Before the interest rate hike lands, don't chase highs, don't cut losses. The macro sword hangs overhead; chasing in is a gamble; the on-chain buying support means cutting out is foolish. Wait for clarity, let the data speak. $BTC $ETH $SOL No matter how tempting your account's unrealized gains are, they can't compete with Brent at $94 + 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.79% + 64% probability of a rate hike in September—these three are squeezing the life out of it. Did BTC rise 24% in August? Yes, it did. But last night, it was pulled back to 77k by the Iran situation and hawkish comments from Washington. Fear and greed dropped from 80 to 63 and it's still in the "greed zone"—until emotions clear out, it's not a true bottom.
ETFs are a buffer, not invincible shields: The $3.5 billion inflow in August is real, but on 8/28 there was a single-day withdrawal of $202 million, and on September 1, data sources conflict (some say $217 million inflow, others say $236 million outflow), indicating institutions are buying while adjusting their portfolios.
How to calculate "profit" in this environment? Don't count the numbers on the screen; consider if you can sleep through a 30% drawdown, how much BTC/ETH you hold in spot, and how much is in your withdrawal bank card. From 126k to 58k to 77k this round, those who survive are the ones who lowered leverage and kept cold wallets, not those shouting for tenfold gains. When macro turns cold, BTC first falls as a risk asset, then rises as a safe haven—if you get the order wrong, you catch the knife. #BTC high-level pullback, gold correlation under test #Crypto treasury expansion faces index qualification test #Japan long bond yield rises to high level Gold prices fell from 4599 to 4375 in just ten days, but some altcoins have dropped ten times more than gold. Have you ever wondered what the market is afraid of when safe-haven and risk assets are sold off at the same time? I've been a bit dazed watching the market these past two days. On one side, gold has fallen nearly 5% from its all-time high; on the other, TRUMP has fallen from $75 to $1.76, a 97% evaporation—the story of nearly a million wallets quietly ended. Let's start with gold. On September 1, it fell to 4375. On the surface, Walsh's hawkish stance suppressed rate cut expectations, but deeper still, after the US-Iran situation pushed up crude oil, safe-haven funds were diverted to energy. The market is not abandoning gold, but repricing the tug-of-war between inflation and interest rates. 4400 has been broken, but if volume shrinks and stabilizes near 4350, this pullback may just be a halfway stop, not the end. Now let's look at BNB. It fluctuates between 694 and 707, on-chain activity hasn't worsened, and quarterly burns are still progressing at a pace. The 700 level has become the focus of bulls and bears' tug-of-war—if volume shrinks and holds, there's room for elastic recovery; If volume drops below 690, then be wary of a deeper level of correction. Honestly, I think the market's expectations for BNB have already been fully priced in; now it's just waiting for a direction to be confirmed. SOL is gathering near 105, and with V1 launching on September 9 plus rent reductions, the ecosystem is indeed making substantial progress. ETF net inflows and DeFi locked positions form medium-term dual support, but after rising too fast, the deviation rate is high, so 100 is a defensive levelDell has delivered another AI cash-printing machine level earnings report.
Revenue reached $47 billion, up 58% year-over-year, and net profit surged 255%, both far exceeding market expectations. AI-optimized servers generated $16.4 billion in quarterly revenue, with orders totaling $60.9 billion and backlog reaching $95 billion — customers are lining up to buy AI servers. Dell has raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast from $60 billion to $74 billion.
Traditional server and networking businesses also grew 122%, storage increased by 26%. Even the PC business grew 20%, offsetting memory costs through price hikes, with commercial customer revenue up 22% year-over-year. AI's impact on infrastructure is no longer just about selling GPU cards; the entire data center chain is transforming.
Tonight, Broadcom $AVGO and Snowflake $SNOW will also release their earnings.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion in each of the first two quarters, with guidance for the third quarter at $16 billion and an expected full-year total of $56 billion. Six major core customers have already locked in capacity through 2028, indicating strong order certainty. On Snowflake's side, analysts expect Q2 revenue around $1.39 billion, up about 33% year-over-year; it is still losing money but the losses are narrowing. Dell $DELL has already proven that AI hardware demand remains strong. Whether this round of AI investment can expand from chip procurement to infrastructure and software will be partially answered by these two earnings reports.
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 I wonder if anyone has noticed a contradictory phenomenon: the crypto market has been grinding with shrinking volume, but the macro situation outside has quietly changed.
Oil prices have stabilized above $95, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.81%, a level not seen in three years. Looking at the probability of a rate hike in September, it was still uncertain last week, but this week it has soared close to 70%.
Putting these things together, the logic is actually simple: inflation is not as easy to suppress as imagined, and the market's long-awaited rate cuts are becoming increasingly distant.
But looking back at Bitcoin, the previous rally was largely supported by expectations of rate cuts. Now that expectation is repeatedly being contradicted by reality, yet the coin price is still holding on. This is not so much market resilience as a disconnect between the market trend and fundamentals.
Some will say: haven't BTC and ETH's technical patterns not yet broken down?
Honestly, technical trends are results; by the time the chart clearly shows risk signals, it's already too late. What really needs early warning is market liquidity, and the signals of tightening are already obvious.
So there's no need to obsess daily over whether the market rises or falls in September. What really needs pondering is whether the underlying logic of this round of the market still holds.
The answer is not in all kinds of flashy on-chain data, just keep an eye on Powell's statements.
$BTC $ETH
#US Treasury yields rise #Crypto macro thinkingDuring ETH's 1H phase, I have always followed the box structure. Currently, the major oscillation range is roughly around 2390~2520. Today, the price has again reached the lower edge of the range, and I chose to open a long position near 2400. My logic is simple: there have already been multiple support points at 2390~2400, which is a relatively clear support zone at the current 1-hour level. So this trade is not chasing the rally, but rather a support and rebound at the lower edge of the range. Currently, the price has returned to around 2418, temporarily leaving my cost zone, but it is still far from a strong turnaround. Next, I will focus on three positions: First target: 2440~2450. First, see if the short-term rebound can continue. Second position: near 2485. This is the important dividing line between long and bearish right now. If it climbs above 2485 again, I believe the bulls will start to regain control. Third position: 2515~2525 This is the top of the entire box and the real point that will determine whether the oscillation range can break out later. Of course, the biggest risk of this long position is clear: 2390~2400 cannot see a valid breakout. If the 1-hour break below 2390 fails quickly and the rebound fails at 2390~2400, then the entry logic for this trade is basically broken. So my current approach is not blindly bullish, but instead: test the low near 2400 for long, observe defense at 2390, and assess the strength of the rebound step by step at 2440/2485. For now, let the market move on its own.Crude oil prices have risen again. Why? Because the US and Iran have started fighting again, and once they fight, crude oil prices start to rise. Not only are crude oil prices rising, but the entire crypto market is also plummeting. In other words, as long as the US-Iran conflict intensifies, international oil prices will rise and the crypto market will fall. So, should we go long on crypto or short on crypto now? In other words, should we go long on crude oil or short on crude oil now? Personally, I think we should go long on crude oil and short on crypto now. —————————————————— If we only look at crude oil contract data, now is actually the time to go short. Let's look at the $CL contract data. We can see that as crude oil prices rise sharply, the contract long-short ratio is falling, while contract open interest is increasing. This means there is a lot of money shorting in the market. This indicates a situation: the market does not believe the US-Iran conflict will continue to escalate. Currently, the market believes that the conflict between the US and Iran is only a small-scale conflict and will not actually break out into a large-scale war. This is the situation I inferred based on market reactions. —————————————————— The market expects oil prices to fall, but I believe prices will rise further. Why? Because the midterm elections are approaching. Trump must resolve the Iran issue before the midterms, or he is doomed to fail. Therefore, Trump is very likely to do something rather outrageous. I don't know the specificsTim Cook handing Apple to John Ternus after a 15-year, $350B-to-$4.6T run reads as a corporate story — but the crypto angle is narrower: the App Store. Apple has been the single biggest gatekeeper on mobile crypto — the 30% cut, NFT limits, wallet and dApp restrictions. Now a hardware engineer runs the world's largest distribution rail. Don't price in a policy pivot, but who controls that rail matters more to crypto's mobile UX than most headlines admit.
#TernusSucceedsCook In the bearish rhythm before the 9/15 FOMC, with BTC at 79k–80k, what you can buy is not the "general altcoin rally," but a few with real revenue + catalysts + high Beta controllable. According to the "pullback order" strategy, currently worth putting into the watchlist:
• SOL (100–103): The elastic king of L1, with a record 4.2 billion on-chain transactions in July, Alpenglow upgrade + deflation expectations not fully realized; try long on pullback to 98–100, stop loss if breaks 94, watch 118 if it stands above 110.
• HYPE (Hyperliquid): August perpetual volume 114 billion USD, monthly fees 50 million USD, with buybacks and revenue, this is the "DEX chain with cash flow" this round; position has hit new highs, do not chase, wait for a 10–15% pullback to buy in batches, stop loss set in advance.
• LINK (Chainlink): RWA + oracle essential demand, spot ETF net inflows for 8 consecutive days (18.27 million USD in August), institutional line is the smoothest; buy low in the 11.0–11.6 support zone, turn to watch if breaks 10.8.
• UNI (5.8–6.0): Robinhood Chain feeding fees + UNIfication burn story is real, but 6.0 is overbought; wait for 5.5 or 4.8–5.0 to act, chasing above 6.0 is fueling a short squeeze.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh: the non-farm payrolls for Friday haven't been released yet, but the market is already trembling. The probability of a September rate hike has surged from 35% to over 65%, and Bitcoin has been hammered down from 81,000 to hover around 77,000. The data hasn't landed yet, but expectations have already smashed the market.
First, let's talk about how divided the data is. July's non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, and previous months' data were significantly revised downward. In Q1, non-farm payrolls were revised down by 79,000. At Jackson Hole, Waller directly took a hawkish stance— the 2% inflation target is "unwavering," and until inflation clearly falls, "there's still work to be done." Inflation is still hovering around 3.3%, far from 2%, and Waller's hawkish position is backed by the data. The cooling speed isn't fast enough, and the Fed's "reaction function" has already shifted toward hawkishness.
What are the expectations for Friday's non-farm payrolls? Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-over-month. ADP expects about 47,000, and initial jobless claims remain low, just above 200,000. Regardless of the final numbers, the market is watching not the absolute values but the deviation from expectations. If it beats expectations, the probability of a rate hike will push higher, and Bitcoin might drop another notch; if it falls short, the rate hike probability cools down, and Bitcoin has a chance to bounce back near 80,000.
Pharaoh's one piece of advice: don't bet on direction Friday night. Let the algorithms finish stop-losses after the data comes out, then act once interest rates, the dollar, and Bitcoin align. However, I expect the non-farm data will most likely first dip down then spike up! $ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC's Leverage Faith, ETH's Perpetual Machine
On the same day, Strategy and BitMine pulled the trigger simultaneously. Different targets, different chips, and fundamentally different underlying logic.
$BTC Strategy re-entered after ten weeks of silence, fueled by MSTR's stock market issuance—selling stocks to buy BTC, cycling repeatedly. This model has no secrets: when BTC rises, the company's market value expands, financing ability strengthens, and more BTC is bought; when BTC falls, the other side of leverage reveals itself. Strategy bets on BTC's ultimate narrative—so long as the asset appreciates long-term, temporary unrealized losses and equity dilution are bearable costs.
$ETH BitMine takes a different path. Holding 5.9 million ETH, it has been buying continuously for 65 weeks without interruption. These ETH are not reserves gathering dust but are invested in the Ethereum network's ongoing ecosystem—staking, validating, earning rewards, with stable annualized returns and over $300 million in cash flow automatically received each year.
One is a leverage-driven price gamble; the other is a network-effect cash flow business. The former requires BTC to keep hitting new highs to cover financing costs; the latter only needs ETH's network to keep producing blocks to earn passive income.
Neither model is right or wrong, but their understanding of the word "asset" is completely different. One treats BTC as the ultimate store of value, holding statically and waiting for time to realize value; the other treats ETH as productive capital, dynamically operating and continuously extracting network dividends. $UNI has broken through 6! I've gone all in building my position.
It's definitely the strongest in the DeFi sector this round.
Catalyst: Uniswap has captured 99% of the liquidity in tokenized stock trading on Robinhood Chain, with daily trading volume exceeding $130 million. After the fee mechanism activation, about $160 million is burned annually. On a single day at the end of August, application revenue reached $327,000 — the narrative has upgraded from "pure governance token" to "real money maker." 🔥UNI surged nearly 15% in a single day, piercing $6, hitting an eight-month high! But is this a “rocket” or a “powder keg”?
Robinhood Chain locked up $734 million, Uniswap raked in $9.24 million in fees on this chain within 24 hours, combined with the UNIfication burn mechanism that directly burns protocol fees into UNI deflation—the fundamental story is truly explosive! Futures open interest soared to $500 million, a new high since last November, with institutions and whales betting on both spot and derivatives.
But $6 is definitely not a sweet spot to chase longs; it’s the dividing line between a short squeeze and a long squeeze!
• BTC fell below 78,400 on the same day, the market is bleeding, UNI is a lone fighter against the trend;
• $6.0 is a previous dense trading resistance and breakout level, unusually active fees in a single instance cannot be linearly extrapolated;
• Robinhood Chain accounts for nearly 40% of Uniswap’s fees, dependence on a single partner is a hidden bomb;
• Even Standard Chartered warns that “4% annualized burn is unsustainable.”
Scenario: Daily candle closes steadily above $6.0 → valuation repair opens, challenging $10; if BTC falls below 75,000 dragging UNI down → $5.5 is the first support, $4.8–$5.0 is the low-leverage trial zone. Chasing above $6 = licking the blade, scaling in on pullbacks to $4.8–$5.5 is the hunter’s move.⚠️I've been telling you to stay out and wait for the signal these past two weeks. Today, I'll make it clear: the signal has arrived. Global central banks are hawkish in unison, interest rates have hit new highs for the year, and oil prices have risen three times in a row, reigniting inflation expectations—the gravitational pull on risk assets is getting heavier.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds The market cap is $2.63T with a single-day drop of -3.83%. The top gainers are all from "new asset issuance sectors": prediction markets, on-chain US stocks, launchpads, meme ecosystems, DeFi indexes, all pointing to the same narrative: new native on-chain gameplay rather than old blue chips. Where is the money coming from? USDT market cap changed by -0.01% in 24h, with almost no new issuance and no new money entering; BTC dominance is 59.1%, with funds moving within the existing pool, shifting from mainstream to small-cap hotspots. Except for the $6.76B DeFi index, other sectors have market caps under $0.4B, allowing small amounts of money to push double-digit gains. This is rotation within existing liquidity under thin liquidity conditions, while $BTC itself is still falling. Judgment: rotation within existing funds, with a weak sustainability. Fear & Greed index is 63, down from 65 a week ago, sentiment hasn't caught up with the leaderboard. End signal: USDT continues no new issuance, BTC dominance stands back above 59.1%, Fear & Greed falls below 63. When all three appear together, the rotation is over. Data divergence before the non-farm payrolls combined with geopolitical conflicts is putting overall pressure on the crypto market.
As the "weathervane" of the crypto market, $BTC's impact mainly depends on whether the non-farm data strengthens rate hike expectations.
The probability of a rate hike in September has risen above 65%. If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations (>100,000), BTC may dip to 75K-76K or even 73.5K;
if the data is significantly below expectations, it could trigger a rebound test at 80K. The current price has already fallen from 81K to around 77K, with hawkish expectations partially priced in advance.
$ETH is more obviously dragged down by macro factors, recently falling about 2.66%-2.94% along with the broader market.
As a leading altcoin with higher risk appetite, if the non-farm data is hawkish and rate hike expectations heat up, $ETH's decline usually exceeds that of Bitcoin. If the data unexpectedly leans dovish, its rebound elasticity is also stronger than BTC.
However, the main current pressures come from the US-Iran conflict pushing up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns, and rising Treasury yields suppressing non-yielding assets.
$SOL is the most sensitive to macro data, with a decline rate far exceeding BTC and ETH. Due to lacking safe-haven attributes and liquidity highly dependent on retail speculation, if the non-farm data shows strong employment and rising rate hike probability, $SOL faces larger-scale sell-offs. The current price has dropped to about $99, with a single-day decline exceeding 4% at one point. Additionally, internal structural pressures such as token unlocks and leveraged long liquidations also amplify macro shocks.UNI is currently priced at $5.8–6.0 (touched 6.01 intraday on 9/2, an eight-month high), making it one of the few strong altcoins running an independent trend amid this weak market cycle.
Core Drivers (Bullish)
• Robinhood Chain Explosion: Uniswap serves as the default AMM, with on-chain TVL at $734 million, daily fees of $9.24 million, accounting for the majority of protocol fees; tokenized stocks + RWA traffic directly feed the v4 pools.
• UNIfication Fee Burn Confirmed: Fee activation scheduled for 12/2025, with a cumulative burn of about 5 million UNI plus a one-time 10 million burn, circulating supply at 895 million, annualized burn rate close to 1%, transforming from a "pure governance token" to a "dividend-like burn asset."
• v4 Hooks + Permissioned Pools: Capturing institutional compliant pools and RWA scenarios, TVL and fee base firmly hold the top spot among DEXs.
Pressures and Risks (Bearish)
• Short-term RSI at 79–85 is overbought, 24h up 12–15%, weekly up over 30%, futures open interest surged to $500 million, crowded leverage, 6.0 is a dense trading resistance level, prone to sharp pullbacks after spikes.
• Absolute burn amount is still relatively small compared to the 63 billion circulating supply, value capture does not immediately fill valuation; Robinhood Chain accounts for nearly 40% of fee sources, dependence on a single partner is a hidden risk.#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
As the crucial non-farm payroll data release approaches, recent U.S. employment-related data have shown divergence, with market bets on a September rate hike continuing to rise. This has become the core macro variable suppressing the crypto market currently.
Some leading employment indicators are relatively strong, indicating labor market resilience. Coupled with earlier hawkish remarks from Waller, the trading market keeps raising the probability of a September rate hike; however, another set of data signals cooling, showing clear divergence in views on the Fed's future path.
The upcoming non-farm payroll report is the most important reference before the FOMC meeting.
✅ If employment data exceed expectations: rate hike expectations will further ferment, risk assets like BTC and ETH will come under pressure, and market volatility will be amplified.
✅ If employment data significantly weaken: it will offset hawkish policy rhetoric, rate hike expectations will fall, giving crypto assets a breather.
Currently, the market itself is repeatedly tugging at a high range, and with macro events approaching, volatility will quickly increase. Spikes and two-way stop-loss sweeps will become the norm.
Do not heavily bet on the data outcome in advance. Continue to patiently hold your favored spot assets and observe; for contracts, be sure to reduce positions, avoid gambling on one-sided moves, and wait for the market to form a clear structure before making the next decision.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 BTC & ETH ARE COOLING OFF, NOT COLLAPSING
$BTC and $ETH are under pressure as the market turns defensive. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and growing expectations of a September Fed rate hike are weakening risk appetite.
Profit-taking after the late-August rally is adding pressure. $BTC is around $77K, while $ETH trades near $2.4K. However, ETF flows remain supportive, suggesting this may be a period of correction and repricing rather than a full market collapse. On September 9, the U.S. stock market began repurchasing Treasury bonds, raising the single repurchase limit from $2 billion to $4 billion, effective until November 4.
Currently, the recent 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.79%–4.81%, and the 30-year yield is around 5.27%–5.28%, close to or back to pre-announcement levels.
This scale is still small compared to the entire Treasury market (over $40 trillion) and the quarterly long-term new issuance scale. The original plan was a long-term repurchase limit of about $14 billion from September 9 to November 4; after doubling, an additional approximately $14 billion is added.
The increased repurchase on September 9 provides marginal support and liquidity improvement for long-term U.S. Treasuries. In the short term, it may ease upward pressure on yields and benefit risk assets and gold, but personally, I think its effect on the current market is limited.
At times like this, it's important to stay calm. The rise in crude oil, the decline in U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto does not mean capital is fleeing but rather choosing a more prudent approach and hedging. In the crypto space, we can see various altcoins with high volatility simultaneously driving the ecosystem upward.
Therefore, I think shorting is fine but should be short-term. Trying to capture a drop of several thousand or even tens of thousands of dollars in one go is very difficult in the current market. The back-and-forth shakeouts will definitely push you out.US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #Two Treasury Philosophies of BTC and ETH
On the same day, two completely different logics played out simultaneously in the crypto market.
Strategy ended a ten-week wait, purchasing 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, bringing total holdings to 845,050 BTC, valued at approximately $63.7 billion. The funding source remains the market price issuance of MSTR stock—4.53 million shares sold within a week, recording a net income of $602.8 million, with precise funding. $BTC
The core difference between the two models lies in: interest-bearing vs. non-interest-bearing.
$ETH Strategy holds 845,000 BTC, currently trading at about a 31% premium over net asset value. The number of circulating shares has increased 250% since the large-scale coin purchase, with annual preferred stock dividend payments of about $1.5 billion, while the company’s cash reserves are only about $1 billion.
$BTC BitMine is completely different. It stakes about 86% of its ETH holdings through its self-built validator node network MAVAN. This means BitMine still has a continuous income source to support its weekly buying strategy.
Strategy bets on BTC’s ultimate pricing power—BitMine bets on ETH’s network effect and interest-bearing capability—it’s like a digital power plant, holding 4.9% of the total network supply and continuously “generating electricity” to produce income.
Two models, neither right nor wrong, but completely different risk exposures. One requires the price to always go up, the other only needs the network to keep running BTC and ETH are cooling off, not crashing
As the market shifts to defense, $BTC and $ETH face pressure. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and increased expectations of a Fed rate hike in September are weakening risk appetite.
Profit-taking after the late August rebound has also added pressure. $BTC is around $77K, and $ETH is trading near $2.4K. However, ETF fund flows still support the market, indicating this may be a phase of correction and repricing rather than a full market crash. Since entering September, the macro environment for the crypto market has clearly become more complex. Geopolitical tensions persist, crude oil prices have risen again, and US Treasury yields have also noticeably increased. Market expectations for the Fed's policy shift in September are rapidly changing. Current market pricing shows about a 63% probability of policy tightening in September, which undoubtedly puts pressure on BTC and the entire risk asset market. However, liquidity has not completely weakened. The latest data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $12.6M, indicating institutional funds continue to maintain some allocation demand. Meanwhile, the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of about $9.1M. The divergence in BTC and ETH ETF capital flows also indicates that the current market is not simply bearish across the board, but rather a readjustment of asset allocation. What truly deserves attention next is whether macro data can change the market's judgment of Fed policy: 📌 Employment data: NFP will directly affect expectations for rate cuts or rate hikes 📌 in September. Inflation data: Will determine whether the 📌 Fed has room to continue tightening policy. US Treasury yields: High yields may continue to suppress valuations 📌 of high-risk assets. BTC ETF cash flows: Whether institutions will continue to buy will be an important signal. In the short term, the direction of crypto may not be determined solely by technical factors. If employment and inflation data remain strong, market expectations for Fed policy may further increase$CRV is worth keeping an eye on as this bull market gets heated..
as it’s obvious that the stablecoin market will keep getting more crowded, and every new stablecoin needs deep liquidity before people can actually use it..
so on Curve, projects compete for gauge votes to direct CRV incentives toward their pools.
$BTC
so more stablecoins should mean more competition for votes and more CRV being locked.
$ETH
then there is crvUSD and Llamalend capturing the borrowing side too.
$SOL $CORE — Reading the Warning Signs
Losing an earn listing rarely happens alone; it usually sits early in a longer wind-down before trading eventually stops. CORE already shows deeper damage: down 99.5% from its all-time high, a bridge exploit dented trust, and sentiment sits in extreme fear. The team now leans on buybacks instead of rewards to steady things. Not predicting the ending — just watching whether support actually holds.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes
$BTC $ETH #Robinhood Chain on-chain volume surges, Meme coin stocks spark controversy Family, Robinhood Chain's recent data is shockingly strong.
On August 28, the single-day DEX trading volume approached 989 million, and on September 2, it directly hit 1.28 billion, setting a new stage high. In terms of trading structure, Meme coin stocks related to Long.xyz remain active, with tokens like AI and MOO driving discussions. Trading heat has spread from tokenized stocks to more volatile Meme assets.
At the same time, Robinhood Wallet and Fomo support direct purchase of Meme coins via Apple Pay, Google Pay, and credit cards. This operation has triggered compliance controversies—some transactions are classified as digital goods media, not cryptocurrency purchases. The gray area of compliance inevitably leads to disputes.
The current question is whether Robinhood Chain's volume surge is expanding the real demand for tokenized stocks and RWA, or mainly amplified by Meme coin stocks and payment gateways? If it's the former, this trend has sustainability and reflects genuine demand for crypto financial infrastructure. If it's the latter, the hype may fade after a while.
Family, Robinhood Chain's data is indeed impressive, but whether the fundamentals can keep up with the hype depends on whether the trading structure changes in the coming weeks. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ARB $ZEC 3. Who is buying, who is selling? Data doesn't lie
The most divided picture has arrived.
In less than 60 days, large holding addresses have cumulatively accumulated 46,420 BTC; just in the past seven days, whales have swept up another 39,000.
On the other hand, retail investors holding 0.1-1 BTC have a cumulative trend score as low as -0.982, almost selling out completely.
Whales are buying, retail investors are surrendering.
This is not a sign of a strengthening market. A more reasonable explanation is that the price is being pushed up to wash out latecomers and weak conviction floating coins. What you think is a bull market may actually be a position reallocation designed by the whales.
The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $202 million on Friday, ending nine consecutive days of inflows. The attitude of institutions is already written on the market.
$ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 $UNI is really about to take off!
It’s charging from just over 5U straight to 6U!
Many people ask: Didn’t the positive news come out a long time ago? Why is it only starting to rise now?
The core reason is that Uniswap is no longer just a simple token swap platform; it has started using part of the trading fees to buy back UNI and then directly burn it.
The more UNI is burned, the less circulating supply there is in the market, so the remaining tokens naturally become more valuable. This mechanism was confirmed at the end of last year, but the burn scale was still small back then, so the market didn’t pay much attention.
The real change comes from Robinhood’s new chain. Trading of on-chain stock tokens and real asset tokens is becoming increasingly active, with trading volume growing nearly tenfold in a month.
A large portion of these trades are completed through Uniswap, so the fees naturally rise, and more UNI is burned. The higher the usage, the faster the burn rate; this positive cycle has only recently started to take shape.
At the same time, the market has begun to refocus on these established DeFi projects. The technical side has just completed a breakthrough, so capital naturally starts to flow in faster.
So it’s not that the positive news suddenly appeared, but that past developments are finally being realized: fees are truly burning tokens, the data is aligning, and the price is starting to respond.
#EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, #WashPolicyStanceUnderTest
#BTCHighVolatility, #GoldCorrelationStrengthens
#EarningsWatch: Broadcom and Dell Takeover, AI Returns Face New Test Crypto Minimalist News｜2026-09-02 #EarningsObserver: Dell's performance exceeds expectations, Broadcom and Snowflake take over @币圈超短王马大帅
For reference only, not investment advice
Macro
Tensions in the Middle East increase, risk assets under pressure; Federal Reserve officials say inflation remains high, with possible rate hikes in September; US Clarity Act pending Senate vote.
Market
BTC retreats between 76800-77300, ETH weakens around 2400; most altcoins pull back simultaneously.
24h total liquidations on the network reach 239 million, with long positions accounting for 82%; ETF inflows slow down, exchange on-chain deposits increase.
Industry
Robinhood tokenized stock trading volume exceeds 425 million; large ENA unlocks; Binance to delist some old coins on September 3; several foreign banks plan to launch USD stablecoins in 2027.
Focus
BTC key support at 76000, increased volatility, strict leverage control on contracts.The new CEO's annual salary is 3 million plus 55 million stock incentives, totaling 58 million
This is still less than Cook's 74.3 million last year, but 75% of the incentives are tied to stock price—meaning the better the stock performs, the more the CEO earns, aligning the CEO's interests with the shareholders.
Current status of Apple:
Q3 revenue hit 109.4 billion, gross margin reached a record high of 50.1%, performance is solid;
However, the stock price is around 320, with a PE ratio close to 37, which is not cheap, and it dropped nearly 10% after the earnings report.
The next key event is the September 9th launch event, featuring the debut of the foldable iPhone.
If the new boss performs well in this first battle, the story can continue; if not, this valuation won't hold.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO $AAPL SNDK SanDisk: The AI Storage Myth Loses Its Hype, Cyclical Risks Are Emerging
Within the entire RWA tokenization sector, SanDisk SNDK is definitely a hot topic. At one point, it surged nearly 50 times in a year, violently rising from tens of dollars to above two thousand dollars, completely igniting the crypto community. Communities and platforms everywhere were discussing this storage tokenized stock, with countless people drawn in by the grand narrative of AI storage, witnessing a carnival of traditional assets moving on-chain.
Many initially associated SanDisk with everyday hardware like USB drives and memory cards. No one expected that after spinning off from Western Digital, it would catch the fast train of AI computing power explosion, driving a surge in storage chip demand and launching an epic bull run. AI servers expanded rapidly, and every AI machine required massive flash storage. The market widely expected NAND flash memory to be in long-term shortage. The phrase “short-term chip shortage, long-term energy shortage, always storage shortage” spread throughout the community, becoming the loudest slogan for going long on SNDK at the time.
The tokenized stock feature amplified this hype.
Unlike U.S. stocks, on-chain SNDK trades 24/7 nonstop. After U.S. stock market closes, crypto traders can still speculate without missing any moves. This attracted many crypto traders who didn’t need overseas brokerage accounts; they could gain exposure to this storage company directly on exchanges, continuously injecting funds and pushing the price higher.
But markets never rise in a straight line. After the surge, harsh cyclical realities gradually surfaced.
Short-seller Citron publicly turned bearish on SanDisk, arguing that storage is a classic cyclical industry. Storage chips are essentially commodities; when profits reach a certain level, manufacturers aggressively expand capacity. Once capacity is released, supply-demand reverses, and prices collapse. History has repeatedly seen cycles of boom and bust in the storage sector.
At the peak of hype, this bearish report was ignored and prices kept hitting new highs. But as the tide receded, the market began to reconsider the unavoidable issue of cycles.
Currently, prices have fallen significantly from historical highs and entered a wide-range consolidation phase. Whale fund actions have also diverged.
On-chain data shows some large investors still buy on dips, betting on sustained AI storage demand growth; meanwhile, whales who entered at high levels take profits in batches during rebounds. Contract positions fluctuate wildly, with intense long-short battles and large position changes within a single day.
On the contract market, SNDK’s trading volume remains high with frequent spikes, causing both bulls and bears to easily suffer stop losses. Many traders get the big picture right but can’t withstand the large swings in between.
A key point to clarify: SNDK tokenized asset price is pegged to the real SanDisk stock price on U.S. markets.
It’s not an air coin or a scam token; its price follows the U.S. stock’s actual fluctuations. Earnings reports, storage industry supply-demand news, and overall semiconductor sector sentiment in the U.S. directly affect the on-chain token. Even if the crypto market is booming, if the U.S. tech sector collectively pulls back, SNDK will struggle to perform independently. Many newcomers overlook this and trade tokenized stocks with pure crypto speculation logic, which is a common pitfall.
Divergences are also emerging within the sector.
The AI storage story remains, but the market no longer blindly believes in perpetual shortages. People are weighing whether AI-driven incremental demand can offset the new capacity released by major manufacturers. If capacity is massively released and flash chip prices decline, corporate profits will be pressured, and even the best narratives will face performance tests. At the peak, everyone only saw demand; during corrections, supply pressure concerns resurface.
There are also inherent risks with RWA tokenized assets themselves.
Although theoretically tokens correspond 1:1 to real stocks, there are issuing custodians in between. These assets differ from ordinary cryptocurrencies, with custody rules and regulatory uncertainties that many overlook during hype. One cannot just focus on price charts without considering underlying mechanism risks.
Some practical thoughts for holders in different positions.
For those already holding SNDK: after huge gains, this is no longer a blind hold-and-win phase. Storage is cyclical, and after the peak comes a cooling period. If you have considerable unrealized profits, consider taking partial profits in batches while keeping a base position to play the subsequent market. Set your key defensive levels; if important supports break decisively, don’t stubbornly hold on. The damage from cyclical stock declines can be severe.
For those on the sidelines: don’t be brainwashed by the past 50x wealth story. The super gains are history; don’t fantasize about another similar surge. Don’t rush to chase rebounds. Cyclical stock trading is difficult; you must understand AI demand and track chip capacity and U.S. tech stock environment. When unsure, waiting and watching is a good choice.
Contract traders must be highly cautious. SNDK is extremely volatile, with frequent sharp after-hours moves in U.S. stocks causing on-chain token spikes. Avoid heavy positions and high leverage. Monitor U.S. after-hours news at night; it’s not suitable to hold large overnight positions to prevent large losses from sudden moves.
Looking back, this SanDisk cycle is a textbook case of market sentiment.
From obscurity to frenzy, then cooling down and returning to rational cycle risk assessment. Stories can ignite spectacular rallies, but prices ultimately return to fundamentals. The AI storage story isn’t over yet, but it’s definitely not a blind buy-and-win scenario anymore.
$SNDK The market reaction to Strategy's resumption of Bitcoin holdings was lukewarm, as this felt more like a book operation from a private placement than a natural inflow of incremental funds. Meanwhile, spot ETF funds continued to see net outflows, and the selling pressure from short sellers and arbitrage positions did not ease. The buying momentum of individual institutions struggled to absorb the accumulated sell orders from above, making the repeated tug-of-war around the $80,000 mark especially difficult. Macroeconomic disruptions are also significant. Recently, Federal Reserve officials have taken a hawkish stance, and combined with the turmoil of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, risk appetite has been significantly suppressed. Rapid volatility convergence means the market is waiting for direction, and with month-end options approaching, the gamma effect may amplify price volatility in key ranges. If the price breaks below the current support, selling pressure may be concentrated. Structurally, only when the price has fully adjusted and climbs back above $85,000 will the upside truly open; otherwise, any rebound is closer to an impulse than a trend. Institutional accumulation is commendable, but the source of funds means it cannot replace the broad liquidity brought by ETFs. The continuation of a bull market requires more dimensions of capital resonance. From an operational perspective, such news is more suitable as a reference for observing cyclical changes rather than a direct reason to chase highs. Spot positions can be held patiently, while contract trading requires caution against repeated shakeouts caused by divergences between news and capital flows, closely monitoring ETF flows and changes in macro data. Risk warning: Market uncertainty is high; the above content does not constitute investment advice.🚨Baysent wants to ease, Wash wants to tighten — this "faucet dispute" might be the real big show in the crypto world this September.
There is an interesting contradiction in current U.S. economic policy:
On one side, Baysent hopes to alleviate financial pressure through bond repurchases and improving credit conditions; on the other, Wash emphasizes controlling inflation and that interest rates should not be easily loosened.
This is not friendly to $BTC in the short term.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already approached 4.8%. The higher the risk-free yield, the less preference funds have for high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH, causing BTC to repeatedly face pressure around 80,000.
But I actually think the real medium-term focus should be on **"what if yields continue to rise?"**
If long-term yields continue to approach or even break 5%, the pressure on U.S. fiscal and financial conditions will significantly increase. At that time, whether the fiscal side further expands bond repurchases or adjusts financing structures could become a new variable.
So the current logic is simple:
🔴 Short term favors Wash: high interest rates, rising yields, risk assets under pressure;
🟢 Medium term favors Baysent: if financial pressure continues to expand, policy tools may release liquidity again.
The ultimate key is not "who wins," but whether funds actually flow into the market in the end.
So in September, don’t just focus on BTC’s price moves; the real big variable is actually in U.S. Treasuries.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 $BTC's drop this time, the real danger isn't 76,000, but that some still want to guess the bottom to recover losses.
The market sentiment has already been shattered.
In just a few hours,
long positions have been heavily liquidated,
and hundreds of millions of dollars in positions across the network have been forced out.
BTC has been smashed from above 79,000 down to around 76,000,
ETH has fallen back below 2,400,
SOL and BNB are also under pressure.
But note:
A crash does not equal a trend reversal.
What really needs to be judged is—
Is this drop a "shakeout" or a "trend break"?
There are two core triggers for this round of decline.
First is the escalation of geopolitical tensions.
War risk → oil prices rise → inflation expectations rise → rate cut space is squeezed.
Second is that interest rates have become the market's pricing anchor again.
US Treasury yields rise,
risk assets naturally take the hit first.
So now, don’t just focus on the candlesticks.
The real lifeline for BTC,
I’m more focused on the 76,000–77,000 range.
If here we see:
volume-driven stop in the fall + continuous reclaiming of key price levels,
it means there is still support below.
Conversely,
if 76,000 is effectively broken down,
don’t rush to bottom-fish.
75,000 is only the first psychological support,
look further down to 74,000,
even near 72,000.
On the upside, pay attention again to:
78,000 → 79,000 → 80,000.
Especially 79,000,
whether it can be reclaimed is much more important than a simple spike rebound.
The biggest taboo now:
Going all-in to bet on the bottom.
If you already have long positions,
the first thing is not to add more,
but to check your leverage.
If you’re out of position,
you’d rather miss a rebound than catch a falling knife in a panic market.
For contract traders,
you must reduce your position size.
Because in this kind of market,
a wrong direction once,
leverage will kick you out of the game immediately.
There’s one more time point you must watch closely:
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
If employment data is weak,
the market may reprice easing expectations,
and BTC could have a chance to recover.
If data is clearly stronger than expected,
rate pressure will continue to rise,
risk assets may come under pressure again.
So my next plan is simple:
Above 76K, watch the quality of the rebound.
Reclaim 78K, then consider strengthening longs.
Break below 76K, defend first, don’t catch the fall aggressively.
Remember:
Truly mature trading
is not about guessing right every time.
It’s about having capital left to keep playing
when the market suddenly turns against you.
In a bull market, you fight for profits,
in a range, you fight for patience,
in a crash, you fight for risk control.
What’s most valuable now
is not predicting BTC’s next candle,
but waiting for the market to show the answer.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 After excluding coins older than 7 years, the current BTC STH-RP is about $70,238, and the LTH-RP is about $71,237, with only about a $1,000 difference between them.
In other words, the STH-RP is very close to crossing above the LTH-RP again. Looking back historically, after this cost structure completes a golden cross, BTC enters a phase of oscillating upward movement.今天市场最有意思的不是 $BTC 跌了多少，而是资金开始往一个非常冷门的方向钻。 BTC 还在 $77,000 附近磨，ETH 也没重新站回 $2,500，但 ZEC、XMR 这类隐私赛道却开始明显活跃。 这说明一个问题： 现在的钱不是单纯在追涨，而是在寻找“独立叙事”。 过去一轮行情，资金最喜欢的是 AI、RWA、DeFi、L1；但当这些板块都被市场反复交易以后，资金就会开始寻找低拥挤度的东西。 隐私币恰好就是这种资产。 它的逻辑也很简单：BTC 解决的是“无需信任的价值转移”，稳定币解决的是“链上美元”，而隐私赛道解决的是另一个一直没有消失的问题——链上的交易，究竟能不能不被所有人看见？ 所以我现在反而不会急着去猜哪个币马上翻倍。 我更想看的是： ZEC/XMR 这波上涨能不能持续； DeFi 会不会继续出现独立行情； HYPE、TAO 这种高 Beta 资产能不能重新吸引资金； 以及 BTC 横盘的时候，新的叙事能不能一个接一个冒出来。 如果答案是“能”，那市场其实没有死。 它只是在从上一阶段的主线，寻找下一阶段的主线。 真正的大行情，从来不是所有币一起涨，而是每隔一段时间，总Last week, Stripe once again bought 1,800 $BTC at the bottom, equivalent to 143 million USD, with an average purchase price of 79,431. This purchase directly increased their holdings by 8.4%; combined with the previous week's 1,110 coins (average price 73,409), they have been dollar-cost averaging for two consecutive weeks. The holdings added in the last two weeks have exceeded 12%, and the purchase frequency is clearly accelerating. After this purchase, Stripe officially surpassed Bullish to become the fifth largest company holding Bitcoin in the world. Meanwhile, the fourth-ranked Metaplanet made a mysterious move yesterday: transferring over 10,000 bitcoins to Coinbase in the past week, accounting for about a quarter of their holdings. Are they holding? Borrowing? Or selling?Friday's jobs report could reset the odds of a September Fed hike.
The latest data set the stage. August ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 from 55.6, while July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M. Factory growth is slowing, while price pressure remains elevated: prices paid held at 71.1, WTI closed above $90, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.78%.
Here's where things stand:
· CME FedWatch puts September hike odds around two-thirds, up from roughly one-third before Jackson Hole
· August NFP consensus is near +55K, though some estimates are closer to +65K, after July's -23K print
· Unemployment is expected near 4.2%, with annual wage growth seen cooling toward 3.0%
The headline alone will not settle it. The last report revised May and June payrolls down by a combined 103K, while July's lower unemployment rate coincided with 264K people leaving the labor force. Revisions and participation may matter as much as the print.
Friday is only the first checkpoint. August CPI lands Sep 11, followed by the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting and a fresh dot plot.
Crypto is caught in the middle. BTC entered September near $78K after gaining about 25% in August and has held most of that rebound even as gold pulled back.
ETF flows are split:
· US spot BTC ETFs posted a $236.5M net outflow on Sep 1
· US spot Ether ETFs extended their inflow streak to 12 sessions, with the run totaling about $1.60B
A strong jobs report would reinforce the case for a September hike. A weak one could pull the odds back, but CPI remains the final major checkpoint before the Fed decides.
Which matters more for BTC over the next two weeks: jobs, inflation, or ETF flows?
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds Strategy and BitMine increasing holdings simultaneously indicates that the corporate treasury narrative isn't dead yet, but it has become very fragmented
Previously, the market viewed these companies simply: buying coins meant being bullish, and the stock price was an amplifier. Now it's different. BTC treasury companies, ETH treasury companies, and mixed holding companies actually represent three completely different bets: some bet on scarce assets, some bet on on-chain cash flow, and some bet on the capital market's willingness to pay a premium
I actually think what matters most is not how much they bought, but with what money they bought
If relying on operating cash flow, the market will be patient; if relying on issuing debt or shares, investors will start calculating dilution, interest, and liquidity. The biggest fear for companies holding coins is turning from a faith tool into a financing machine
#Strategy与BitMine同步增持 US military airstrikes Iran, oil prices surge wildly, Bitcoin falls back to 77,000 — Three forces are squeezing the bulls
On the 1st, the US Central Command launched a new round of airstrikes targeting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and Iran retaliated immediately. Brent crude surged over 4% approaching $95, WTI rose 5.9% to $90. Geopolitical conflict → oil price spike → inflation heats up → rate hike expectations strengthen, this transmission chain is running at full speed. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has soared to 65%, Bitcoin dropped directly from 79,000 to 76,000.
On-chain data is also pessimistic: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million yesterday, BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day net outflow of $201 million. The bullish confidence accumulated from continuous inflows is being jointly eroded by geopolitical panic and rate hike expectations.
Technically, the outlook is also weak. BTC struggles around 77,500, the KDJ J value has dropped to 8.9, oversold but not stabilized; ETH fell to 2,413, J value only 8.34, also extremely oversold. The 2-hour trend shows no effective support, short-term bulls clearly lack confidence.
Three factors combined: escalating geopolitical conflict, ETF capital outflows, and high rate hike expectations — the short-term risk asset pressure pattern will not easily change.
Watch more, act less. Wait for the non-farm data, wait for the situation to clarify, wait for the 4-hour support to give answers. Don’t cut losses in panic, and don’t blindly bottom-fish when the situation is unclear.
$BTC $ETH
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 In the past 5 rate hikes, the probability exceeded 70%, and $BTC had 4 times where the wick spiked over 8%. This time, do you think after the wick spike it will rally straight up, or continue to consolidate?
Now the probability of a September rate hike has surged to 76%, yet BTC is still narrowly trading around 77,000, locking longs and shorts in a tight $3,000 range.
On-chain whales quietly accumulated over 30,000 tokens between 75,000 and 78,000, while in the futures market, nearly $200 million in high-leverage long positions are stacked above 79,000.
On one side, big money is quietly buying; on the other, retail traders are fully leveraged betting on a nonfarm payroll surprise. The tension in the market has reached its peak.
History doesn’t simply repeat itself, but it always bets on the majority’s liquidation pool. In the previous four rate hike expectations surging above 70%, the wick spikes always targeted the side with the highest position share at the time, washing out leveraged floating positions before a true trend emerged.
This time, the liquidation volume of longs at 79,000 is four times that of shorts at 74,000. The chip structure has quietly written the direction of volatility clearly on the surface.
No one can precisely predict the exact wick spike point, but everyone knows that after this wick spike, whether up or down, the market will completely break free from the current grinding volatility and enter a sufficiently smooth one-sided trend.
Do you think after this wick spike and washout, BTC will break out and charge to new highs, or will it continue to grind back and forth within the range, grinding out all floating positions on both sides before moving?
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
$ETH $SOL "Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 37 Today's approach remains primarily bearish. Since last Friday, when Federal Reserve Chair Powell made hawkish remarks, the market has responded positively. According to CME data, the probability of a rate hike in September has quickly risen from 30% to 67%. Regardless of whether the Fed will actually raise rates, the market is trading on expectations, as reflected by the rapid drop in BTC price. Additionally, there are several factors suppressing the price that deserve our attention. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields continue to surge, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.34%, the 10-year to 4.808%, and the 30-year to 5.25%. Furthermore, recent escalations in U.S.-Iran conflicts have pushed crude oil to recent highs, and yesterday Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $236.5 million, marking the highest in nearly two weeks. These three major factors will significantly suppress Bitcoin's upward movement! Therefore, the market should not be overly optimistic recently. From the chart, Bitcoin is currently oscillating between 76,000 and 81,500, with clear support near 76,000 and strong resistance near 82,000. Ethereum is fluctuating between approximately 2,400 and 2,550. However, I believe caution is needed now, as a breakout in one direction is likely. I hope for a valid breakdown below 2,400 because the market needs a deep retracement to be healthier, and I have not yet bought at the bottom, which is one reason 😓 Today's approach:When the $BTC cannon fires, the coin price struggles to rise. How should retail investors choose? Let's look at the data first.
In February 2026, as the US and Israel strike Iran, BTC drops over 3% in a single hour, ETH falls to 2400, and $SOL even breaks below 100. When the cannon fires, gold rises while coins fall. What happened to the so-called safe-haven assets? Wake up.
Why do coins fall when war breaks out? The logic is actually simple:
War → oil prices soar → inflation explodes → no rate cuts → money tightens.
When money tightens, who would hold real gold and silver to buy a non-interest-bearing Bitcoin? Isn't it better to put money in the bank and earn 5% interest? Institutions are much more calculating than us.
What's worse is that institutions treat the crypto market like an ATM.
The stock market is closed on weekends, so what do institutions do when they urgently need cash? They open exchanges where BTC can be sold anytime within 24 hours. So at the slightest disturbance, the crypto market gets hit first. This has nothing to do with the term "safe-haven."
Think about it, folks—
If war really breaks out, would you feel more secure holding Bitcoin or US dollars?
Don't talk about big words like "decentralization" or "digital gold." When it counts, those savvy institutions run faster than anyone. They can liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars with one click, leaving retail investors out in the cold.
There's an even more practical problem: the fiercer the war, the tighter countries monitor funds. Exchanges get investigated, withdrawals get blocked, accounts get frozen. If this happens to you, no matter how good the price looks, you won't get your money. What's the use?Watching the K-line to do some calculations — in the past month, BTC climbed from 63,500 to 77,000, ETH surged from 1,880 to 2,400.
ETH is rising faster, indicating that capital is willing to increase risk exposure. But both are still some distance from their yearly highs, more like a rebound consolidation rather than a trend breakout.
The logic for BTC is the purest: fixed supply + institutional allocation, buying scarcity and consensus. ETH is much more complex, backed by a whole ecosystem of stablecoins, DeFi, and L2 solutions. When liquidity warms up, funds first rush to BTC; only when risk appetite continues to rise does ETH’s elasticity explode.
The macro environment is not easy: interest rate at 3.75%, inflation at 2.5%, unemployment at 4.1%. Expectations of rate cuts support valuations, but inflation and the dollar’s fluctuations still cause pain.
My judgment: BTC is about direction, ETH is about odds. Looser expectations make ETH run faster, tighter macro conditions make BTC steadier.
Don’t overthink it, take what you need.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨The US-Iran conflict has escalated again, so who is to blame for this drop in the crypto market?
Many people's first reaction is "Middle East war, BTC fell." But I believe the Middle East situation is more like an amplifier, not the root cause.
The real transmission chain is:
US-Iran conflict escalation → oil prices rise → inflation concerns intensify → Fed rate hike expectations increase → US Treasury yields rise → BTC, ETH and other risk assets come under pressure.
So the core contradiction remains interest rates and liquidity.
BTC has previously failed multiple times to break 80,000, with profit-taking and correction pressure itself; now combined with geopolitical news, insufficient liquidity at night, contract longs stop-loss and liquidation, it is easy to further amplify the decline.
We can also see obvious differentiation on the chart:
🔴 BTC is relatively resistant to decline, with ETF spot funds providing some support;
🟠 ETH is more elastic and falls faster, its high Beta attribute makes it more susceptible to liquidity shocks.
So I am now focusing on two levels:
BTC 76385, ETH 2382.
A sudden spike does not equal trend destruction; what really needs caution is a volume-backed break below these levels with a failure to recover on the rebound.
If the conflict eases and oil prices fall later, it can only relieve pressure; what can truly change market expectations are US employment data and rate hike expectations.
Don't use geopolitical conflict as a reason to bottom-fish, and don't take a single spike as the start of a bear market.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 The nonfarm payrolls haven't been released yet. The CPI hasn't been released yet. But the market has already pushed the probability of a rate hike in September to 65.4%. #非农前数据分化, expectations for a rate hike in September are heating up. A month ago, this figure was 35%. No new inflation data, no new jobs report, not even an FOMC meeting. The only thing that happened was Walsh speaking once at Jackson Hole. Then the probability curve climbed up by 30 percentage points on its own. This is the strangest part of this news: the market isn't trading "data," it's trading "fear of data." And that probability curve, which everyone is watching, has become an independent living entity—it expands within the data vacuum and, in turn, shapes reality. Replace the subject with "that curve." If the subject is "Fed," the story is "riding a tiger and getting off." If the subject is "Wash," the story is "hawks in power." But if the subject is the rate hike probability curve ticking on the CME FedWatch, the whole thing feels absurd. It climbs from 35% to 65%, with no new inputs, only one speech. It is like a frightened creature, reacting to stress after Jackson Hole, then continuously reinforcing itself within that reaction. Traders see it rise and increase their positions in rate hike trades; When rate hike trades increase, it rises again. It is no longer "the market's prediction of Fed behavior"; it has become "the market's own prediction of the market's own market." This 65% figure is not a prediction of the September 17 FOMC meeting outcome. It is a response to "if I don't."