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$BTC has sufficient incremental funds, but leverage overheating hides risks BTC spot ETF inflows recently hit the second highest level of the year, spot demand is warming up, a large amount of funds are flowing into the derivatives market, and leveraged trading is active again. Spot bottom support combined with leverage boosts accelerate price increases, but leverage risks cannot be ignored. Intraday spike moves can easily trigger chain liquidations, and heavy long positions can cause the entire account margin to be breached. The current market is supported by spot funds but stability is weak. Going forward, focus on the sustainability of ETF funds, positions, and fee heat. Markets driven solely by leverage are fragile; a single correction can wipe out profits, so leveraged positions are recommended to be isolated separately. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #White House Summit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC #OpenAI Q2 revenue $6.7 billion, losses widen [Market Analysis] Two possibilities: 1. Horizontal consolidation range: 76500-78800 2. Downward correction has begun: failure to recover after breaking below 76300, officially entering a downward consolidation repair Key observations: 1. Whether geopolitical tensions are cooling down, and whether oil prices fall below 85 2. Whether core PCE is cooling down 3. Hawkish or dovish signals from the Fed on Friday Logic: This round of rise lacks real incremental funds. If subsequent pricing trades cannot maintain rate cut expectations, prices will return to levels justified by the macro background. Beware of one thought: after such a big rise, it’s hard to go down; breaking through so much must mean a bull market is back. Not saying it’s impossible, but the macro reality does not yet support bull market conditions. The reasoning is simple: in the short term, with well-managed positions and entry points, both longs and shorts are possible, but in the medium to long term, it’s hard for longs to make big gains. So, at the same real liquidity level, it’s unreasonable to avoid going long at 64000 but now start going long. $BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Fundamental Research Report $ADA / Cardano (Public Chain/L1) $3.20 One-sentence conclusion: Cardano ($ADA) overall score 61/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized. Project Overview: Cardano (token $ADA), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on academic-style public chain, PoS. Competitors include ETH, SOL. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days. User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment. Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): Circulating market cap: Cardano $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. FDV: Cardano $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Annual revenue: Cardano $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Cardano undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top-tier. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 61/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly. That's all for the content, judge for yourself. #FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit A simple review of this week shows the strength and weakness are already very clear: $AAOI down about -17% this week, $LITE -6.2%, $COHR -11.2%. Optical modules became the weakest sector this week. The core reason is not a sudden deterioration in performance, but the previous surge was too strong plus market concerns about AI capital expenditure, leading to collective profit-taking at high levels. After the market closed on Friday, AAOI announced an ATM offering of up to $600 million, causing the stock to drop another 10% after hours. $SKHY down about -0.3% this week, $SNDK -2.7%, $MU -0.5%. Storage clearly resisted the decline better than optical modules. Early in the week, SNDK surged sharply but then followed the tech stocks down; SK Hynix basically recovered the midweek plunge through a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation. In contrast, the crypto sector was the strongest this week: $BTC up about +21%, reaching above $77,000 at its peak; $ETH was even stronger, about +26%. The US Treasury expanded bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, and Trump continued to push crypto-friendly policies, directly squeezing out the previous shorts. In short: This week's strength ranking is BTC/ETH > Storage > Optical Modules. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $307 million yesterday, marking five consecutive trading days of net inflows. Looking at just one day’s data might not reveal much, but considering the recent BTC rebound and the warming market sentiment, the signal is clear: off-exchange funds have not withdrawn despite the price rise; on the contrary, they are still accumulating chips. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $239 million in a single day and remains the main force; Fidelity’s FBTC also saw an inflow of $30.1885 million. The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $96.069 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow reaching $53.706 billion. ETFs have long ceased to be just a concept; they are becoming a force that influences BTC supply, demand, and market expectations. However, I don’t think this means you can blindly chase highs in the short term. The market has been moving very fast recently; when BTC strengthens, funds tend to spread into mainstream coins and high-volatility targets. Once the market heats up, the most common scenario is a rush of momentum-chasing capital. ETF inflows can support the market floor but are not responsible for absorbing overheated short-term chips; even with continuous positive news, prices may still first consolidate or even pull back. I prefer to view this round of sustained inflows as confirmation of a medium-term sentiment improvement rather than a guarantee of a rise tomorrow. If the market is truly strong, pullbacks serve as turnover and opportunities for later funds to get on board; if pullbacks cannot be supported, even the best data will be consumed by short-term sentiment. So, it’s okay to be cautiously optimistic now, but don’t turn optimism into going all-in chasing green candles. Patience and waiting for the right rhythm are key $BTC (This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)The more successful on-chain dollars are, the more important BTC becomes. The GENIUS Act promotes stablecoin compliance, ostensibly focusing on licensing and anti-money laundering, but fundamentally reshaping the division of labor between BTC and ETH. Stablecoins enable efficient circulation of digital dollars on-chain. ETH, as the primary settlement layer, directly benefits—the more widespread stablecoins become, the greater the demand for on-chain settlement, and the more prominent ETH's infrastructure value becomes. But this raises a deeper question: if the vast majority of on-chain transactions and value storage rely on the dollar, then who hedges the long-term risks facing the dollar—such as inflation erosion and sovereign debt expansion? This question brings BTC to the forefront. The more compliant and widespread stablecoins become, the more users need a hard asset that does not depend on dollar credit to store long-term value. BTC is not a substitute for the dollar but a safe deposit box in the digital dollar world—stablecoins for daily payments, BTC for large-scale long-term value storage. These two lines reinforce each other: stablecoins expand the gateway to on-chain finance, while BTC provides participants with ultimate purchasing power protection. The mature future of on-chain finance envisions the three each playing their role: stablecoins handle liquidity, ETH handles transaction efficiency, and BTC handles ultimate credit. It’s not about one replacing another, but about mutual prosperity. This round for DOGE is not a "resurrection," it's been strapped onto a rocket by BTC. $DOGE Many people ask: Isn't Dogecoin a joke coin? How did it rise again? Let me break it down into three layers, and after reading, you'll understand why it bounces harder than many altcoins: 1) It is the "BTC" of Memes—the overall leader with the highest beta In the Meme sector, DOGE's status is equivalent to BTC in the main market: BONK, WIF, PEPE, SHIB all rose 20%–36% today, but DOGE is the "old dog first remembered by capital." When the market loosens, money tests the waters first with the leader. 2) It fell hard enough before, so it has room to bounce At the beginning of August, DOGE dropped to 0.067, a three-year low; a -87% retracement from the 2021 all-time high of 0.7316. For the same 40% rise, BTC would need to go from 77,000 to 108,000—DOGE only needs to go from 0.07 to 0.098, so the bounce is naturally more shocking. 3) But the "long-term story" isn't fixed yet; it's just short-term leverage returning Positive: Grayscale DOGE Trust and Bitwise/Rex ETF products are running, and the DOGE-1 moon mission September window is still open; Negative: X Payments currently hasn't adopted DOGE, the reflex arc of Musk's single tweet pump has dulled by 2026; ETF has had zero net inflow for several consecutive days, indicating institutions don't really treat it as a "payment asset" allocation. $DOGE PMI Hits Four-Year High, Tearing Expectations Apart: Macro Noise Everywhere, What Should Traders Focus On? The US Composite PMI for August surged to a four-year high, with strong expansion in the service sector once again demonstrating economic resilience. However, this also instantly sparked a divergence in rate hike expectations in a market previously immersed in rate cut euphoria. Various economic indicators conflict, and officials' statements keep flip-flopping. If you try to guess the Fed's September decision every day, you will likely get whipsawed by the noise. Macro data itself suffers from serious lag and revision potential; a single month of exceeding expectations cannot determine a major cycle reversal. In actual trading, rather than guessing the dot plot, what truly deserves close attention are micro indicators from the liquidity dimension. For example, whether overnight financing rates spike abnormally, the evolution of the US Treasury yield curve spreads, and the order book depth and fee health within crypto exchanges. As long as systemic liquidity does not experience a cliff-like tightening, the rate hike panic caused by economic resilience is often just a shakeout smoke screen created by major funds within an uptrend. Strictly following an established trading system is far more important than chasing macro news. Faced with the recent repeated reversals in macro data, are you frequently switching positions driven by news, or calmly sitting tight based on technical signals? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 This Friday, gold $XAU strongly broke through $4600/oz, with a single-day increase of 2%, and a total weekly rise of about 5.2%. For precious metals with sluggish prices, this data is encouraging. So some may ask, why is gold rising? The core driver is the U.S. Treasury's announcement to double the repurchase scale of 10-30 year Treasury bonds! At least $4 billion each time. Everyone in the circle knows that the dollar has been falling recently. This move accelerates the dollar's decline and simultaneously ignites sustainable concerns about U.S. Treasury bonds, as the U.S. federal debt has reached $40 trillion. Under this move, people start to worry about the dollar's safe-haven status, and funds begin to rush into gold to hedge against "currency depreciation" risk. The rise in gold once again proves: when sovereign credit cracks, it is the true hard currency. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 During the US stock market holiday, the on-chain token of $MSTR showed a slight discount of 0.35%. The core conflict lies in the game between the $1.7 billion unrealized profit from the underlying BTC surpassing $71,000 and the weekend cross-market thin liquidity suppressing the willingness to chase prices. From the market facts, the token is currently priced at $118.83, lagging behind Friday's stock closing price of $119.25. The upper Bollinger Band at $116.57 has been breached, indicating that the technical bullish structure remains valid. In terms of driving factors, the recovery of crypto spot prices ranks first, as Bitcoin's rebound above the average holding price eases balance sheet pressure; insufficient on-chain market-making depth due to the US stock market holiday ranks second; and a slight correction in macro equity sentiment ranks last. In a bullish scenario, if crypto spot prices remain high and cross-market funds return before Monday's open, the discount will be quickly eliminated, triggering the token to break through the previous high resistance at $127.67. Breaking this resistance will confirm the valuation fully anchoring to the stock price. In a bearish scenario, if crypto spot prices face pressure and pull back at high levels, narrowing unrealized gains, and the token loses the moving average support formed by MA7 and MA25, it will trigger a retest of the upper Bollinger Band at $116.57, at which point the bullish rebound rhythm will face structural adjustment. In the valuation transmission mechanism, the RSI14 indicator remains in a strong zone at 68.8 and the MACD red bars are expanding, indicating that funds have not yet panicked and exited. However, the discount state reflects the market's cautious and watchful attitude toward the actual reflected price at Monday's open. The most important variable to observe in the next 24 hours is the speed of discount recovery between the on-chain token and the actual stock transaction price at the US market open on Monday. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大.22 Bitcoin Market Brief: Surge and Pullback, Beware of Correction Risks Amid the Rally Folks, does today's market feel like a roller coaster ride? 😅 This morning, Bitcoin surged past the $78,000 mark, reaching a high of $79,555, nearly hitting the $80,000 milestone. In the afternoon, it slightly pulled back, with the price around $76,600 as of 6 PM. Over the past 24 hours, it still gained over 2%, and the weekly cumulative increase exceeded 24%, marking the strongest weekly performance since March 2023. The driving logic behind this rally is clear: The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond repurchase operations combined with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, weakening the dollar and directly boosting risk asset valuations. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $12 billion this year, with institutional funds continuously supporting the market. Coupled with recent positive meetings between U.S. senior officials and crypto industry executives, this has directly fueled the bulls' advance. However, risks are also clearly visible: Over the past 24 hours, more than 189,000 liquidations occurred across the network, totaling $1.459 billion, with shorts almost entirely wiped out. The current RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, perpetual contract funding rates have risen to multi-month highs, and high-leverage positions are overcrowded, which could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations and a correction at any time. Reminder to everyone: don't blindly chase the highs. Conservative traders might consider waiting for the price to pull back and stabilize around the $71,000-$72,000 support level before making decisions. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so never go full leverage betting on direction. The craziest thing this week is Bitcoin $BTC is now over 77,000, reaching a high of 79,319 within 24 hours, brushing close to 80,000 Spot ETFs have had a net inflow of 1.6 billion USD over four days On August 20 alone, BTC ETFs saw an inflow of 606 million, ETH ETFs 221 million These numbers are quite shocking Retail investors chasing highs usually cause a volume spike one day and a drop the next But four consecutive days of increasing inflows suggest institutions are accumulating Combined with the Treasury doubling down on long bond buybacks and the dollar index dropping 0.9% on the weekly chart Money is bypassing bonds and flowing into gold and Bitcoin, which makes sense logically Looking back, Bitcoin's historical high was 126,080 in October 2025 Now it's under 80,000, still 38% below the previous high; this is a strong rebound in a bear market, not a new high rally. Watch if ETF net inflows stop; if they continue, institutions are still buying, if they stop, retail investors (like me) are taking the risk During the weekend break when the US stock market was closed, the $MSTR on-chain token slightly declined and showed a mild discount, contrasting with the over 6% rise in the underlying stock on Friday, creating a quiet temperature difference. The token price hovered around $118.83, maintaining a 0.35% discount compared to the stock's closing price of $119.25, with the resistance at the high point of $127.67 still clearly defined. The underlying asset Bitcoin rebounded above the average holding cost, pushing MicroStrategy's holdings of over 840,000 coins back to an unrealized profit of about $1.7 billion, temporarily easing pressure on the balance sheet. The spot rebound provided book support for the US stock-linked asset, while the thin cross-market liquidity during the US market closure suppressed the willingness to chase prices, causing a slight lag between the two price ends. If Bitcoin holds the valuation bottom line before the stock market opens on Monday, the token side is expected to eliminate the discount with the return of external liquidity and then test the $127 resistance level. If the crypto spot market faces pressure at high levels leading to a narrowing of unrealized book profits, once the token loses the moving average support, the bullish rebound rhythm will face correction. The current strong bias heavily depends on the net asset elasticity provided by Bitcoin spot; as long as the US stock-linked asset does not experience a sentiment collapse, the valuation logic will continue to revolve around holding fluctuations. The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the speed of discount recovery between the on-chain token and the actual US stock trading price when the stock opens on Monday. #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战BTC accelerated again in a single day, but the derivatives market quietly changed its expression. Have you noticed that the price is rising, yet many people are actually more hesitant to move? Here's a set of numbers I observed while monitoring the market—not predictions, but structural changes currently happening: - Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates have turned positive again and are rising faster than the price, indicating leveraged longs are returning. - Ethereum futures basis is also widening, but the spread with BTC has not expanded in sync, showing a clearly more cautious attitude toward ETH funding. - Option skew (25 delta risk reversal) still leans toward bearish protection, indicating professional accounts continue buying insurance amid the rally. - Altcoins' perpetual contract open interest is increasing, but volume growth is lagging, suggesting limited new capital, with more turnover among existing holdings. Putting these signals together, my understanding is: the market is not trading on "bull market confirmation" but rather the continuation of a "short squeeze" scenario. The underlying logic of BTC's rally resembles shorts being forced to cover passively combined with leveraged longs actively adding positions; these two forces together push the price up quickly and steeply. However, the hedging demand in the derivatives market is rising simultaneously, indicating smart money does not see this as a smooth one-way street. The secondary effect is that capital preference is actually contracting, not expanding. BTC's strength is drawing away already scarce active liquidity; although altcoins are rising alongside, their internal rhythm is chaotic. Several small-cap positions I hold started to turn profitable after $OFC broke even.Bitcoin latest pullback was enough to shake the entire crypto market. After the explosive rally that pushed $BTC toward the $79K area the market suddenly faced heavy selling pressure dragging $ETH $SOL $XRP and numerous altcoins lower. But the important question is not simply Why did $BTC dump? The bigger question is whether this was a normal reset after an aggressive rally or the beginning of a deeper correction. ◆ The Rally Had Already Become Extremely Extended $BTC had gained roughly 23% in oETH broke below 2410, my short position's floating profit surged to 3032U, but I haven't exited yet Just took a look at the market, ETH broke below 2410. My short position's floating profit surged to 3032U, 433%. Short opened at 2,518, 100x leverage, held for several days. What happened during this process? · Floating profit dropped from 2800 to 700 · Then pulled back from 700 to 3000 Throughout the entire process, I did only one thing: nothing. No chasing longs, no cutting losses, no adding positions, no closing positions. Stop loss at 2,580, no move unless broken. This drop confirmed my previous judgment — this rally was driven by derivatives, not real spot money buying. Futures trading volume dropped from 44.8 billion to 13.3 billion, a 70% drop, and I knew: once sentiment recedes, it goes down as it went up. Today is just the beginning. I still say: as long as 2,580 is not broken, the short position stays. $ETH The core conclusion of today's market is: **Risk appetite has somewhat recovered in the short term, but it is far from a time of full optimism.** Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indices rebounded, BTC once surged close to $80,000, becoming one of the strongest performing risk assets; however, at the same time, U.S. Treasury yields rose again, Brent crude oil remained near $94, and the pressure from U.S. fiscal and Middle East situations has not truly disappeared. Today also happens to be Saturday, with traditional markets closed, so the most worth watching over the weekend is whether BTC can maintain its strength and whether there are any new sudden developments in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situations. 1. What happened overnight? 1. U.S. stocks ended a continuous adjustment, but the weekly chart still shows clear weakness. Facts: On Friday, all three major U.S. stock indices collectively rebounded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98%, closing at 53,277.01; the S&P 500 rose 0.43%, closing at 7,674.37; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.44%, closing at 26,180.46. However, looking at the entire week, the market has not truly shaken off pressure. The S&P 500 fell 1.43% for the week; the Nasdaq fell 2.05%; the Dow Jones fell 0.85%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq ended their previous three-week winning streak. Market reaction: Friday's trading was noticeably more stable than the previous days, with materials, healthcare, and financial sectors leading gains, while crypto-related stocks performed especially strongly. Robinhood rose 13.7%, Coinbase rose 8.2%, Strategy upIn mid-July 2026, Movement Labs (MVMT Labs) officially filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The news dealt a heavy blow to market sentiment, laying bare unsustainable financial strain and internal disputes. However, a corporate bankruptcy filing does not mean the $MOVE token instantly vanishes from exchanges. As long as trading pairs remain active and smart contracts execute on-chain, this structural disconnect creates a breeding ground for price manipulation. Market Makers and the Short Don't treat the bull market like a playback machine The biggest trap in this market cycle is forcing historical patterns onto a new script. In the past, when BTC rose, ETH followed, altcoins soared, and Meme coins surged wildly. But this time, capital is extremely selective—BTC reaching 70,000 relies on ETFs, regulatory clarity, and the digital gold narrative, all three supporting simultaneously. Not just any coin can benefit from this logic. The order of market observation must be clear: Step one: Can BTC turn the area above 70,000 into a support base? This is the master switch for overall market risk appetite. Step two: Does ETH/BTC strengthen? The real baton-passing signal is not ETH rising, but ETH holding up during BTC's pullback—this indicates incremental funds independent of BTC are providing support. Step three: Then it's the turn of high-volatility sectors. The sequence is: ETH DeFi TVL rises first → competing chains follow → Meme coins finish last. Many rush to chase the most exciting sectors first, which often ends up being the last leg. Three practical filters: 1. When BTC is consolidating, watch stablecoin net inflows. Continuous USDC inflows into the Ethereum mainnet are a precursor to capital preparing to spread. 2. During BTC pullbacks, compare the drop magnitude. ETH falling less than BTC confirms the true "second leg." 3. The altcoin season is not "inevitable" but a "selection." Only sectors with independent narratives (RWA, Restaking) qualify to absorb overflow capital. If the main line isn't stable, all branches are traps. Don't treat the bull market like a playback machine; the script has changed. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ The strongest evidence for multiple IPs taking over: Star People reached 2.65 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, rising to the second largest IP (company interim report). A year ago, it was just a small to medium IP; this is a breakthrough explosion, not a PPT. It proves that POPMART can quickly push new IPs to the top, and the ability to replicate hits is more valuable than a single hit. More concrete details about the hit: Wang Ning revealed at the earnings call that Star People's "Animal Farm" sold out immediately at 10 PM on August 20; the hidden edition on Dewu was speculated up to 1799 yuan, nearly 14 times the initial price of 129 yuan (Sina Finance). Sold out immediately + secondary market premium is exactly a replay of Labubu's rise. Plush form + social media viral spread are key to Star People's rapid popularity. Whether the high growth on a low base can continue needs to be verified next quarter, but "the IP factory can produce another hit" has been confirmed. Star People is not a replacement for LABUBU but a symbol proving POPMART's ability to replicate hits. This means the valuation can shift from a single IP cyclical stock to a platform-type IP company. The risk lies in overly high sentiment premium: hidden edition speculation and social media hype will amplify short-term expectations. If growth slows next quarter, stock price volatility will be significant. Star People is a hope, but don't idolize it; giving it two quarters for verification is more reasonable (market page 09992.HK). $POPMART How far can the market go after Bitcoin's short squeeze? Three signals are providing the answer. Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin has been stuck oscillating repeatedly between $62,000 and $66,900. The price has lacked direction for a long time, market sentiment has continued to cool, and the fear and greed index once approached extreme fear. More importantly, short positions in the derivatives market have been accumulating continuously, with perpetual contract funding rates remaining negative for a long time, and more and more traders starting to bet on Bitcoin's continued decline. But the market often does not follow the majority's expectations. On the evening of August 19, Bitcoin suddenly surged rapidly from around $64,000, breaking through multiple key resistance levels in a short time. So far, the price has reached as high as around $75,700. Along with the sharp price increase, the leveraged market also experienced intense liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market's liquidation amount reached about $3.3 billion, with short liquidations accounting for about $3.07 billion, affecting nearly 200,000 people. The direct driver of this rally is obvious: after a crowded short position, a large-scale short squeeze occurred, forced liquidations created passive buying, which further pushed the price up, ultimately forming a typical "rise—liquidation—rise again" cycle. But what really deserves attention is not how fierce this short squeeze was, but whether there is enough new capital to take over after the squeeze ends. My judgment is: the short squeeze is just a spark, policy provides the catalyst, and ETF funds will determine whether this rally can continue to burn. Signal 1: Spot ETFs continuously receive capital inflows. This rally is different from previous ones that relied solely on leverage to drive it.In 1494, an Italian monk published a book titled "Summary of Arithmetic, Geometry, Proportion, and Proportionality." Sounds boring, right? But hidden within this extremely dull book was the code that changed the course of human civilization—the double-entry bookkeeping method. From then on, merchants no longer relied on memory to do business; every transaction had an immutable two-way record. Looking back five hundred years later, the foundation of modern capitalism was laid by this book that no one wanted to finish reading. History always repeats the same truth: the real forces that change the world often wear the most uninteresting faces. Double-entry bookkeeping for commercial civilization, the internet for information dissemination, and the shipping container for global trade—they all didn’t win by being "sexy." They won by making complex things reliable, expensive operations cheap, and turning the privileges of a few into the everyday for the many. Ethereum in 2026 is on the same path. It no longer attracts attention through price narratives and conceptual hype but quietly becomes the infrastructure of global digital finance with an extremely "uninteresting" system design. Present-day Ethereum: so uninteresting that you overlook how powerful it is. First, look at a set of the latest on-chain data: Ethereum’s total DeFi locked value exceeds $99 billion, more than nine times that of the second-ranked public chain; in 2025, the total stablecoin settlement volume on Ethereum reached $18.8 trillion; over 30% of ETH supply is staked; the number of deployed smart contracts exceeds 88 million, with a daily transaction peak of 1.74 million. Behind these numbers, not a single oneIn recent days, the sentiment in the crypto space has clearly changed. Not long ago, people were discussing "when the bear market will end," and now the market is heating up again. Bitcoin has climbed back above $70,000 and even approached $80,000 at one point; mainstream assets like Ethereum and XRP have also seen significant rebounds, and the overall risk appetite in the crypto market has rapidly increased. Latest market reports show that Bitcoin surged over 20% this Monday, marking a very strong weekly performance in recent years. So the question arises: Is this just a normal rebound, or is a new bull market starting? My judgment is: it is still too early to say the "bull market is fully underway," but the market has indeed shown some positive signals worth paying attention to. For ordinary investors, rather than rushing to guess the top and bottom, it’s better to first understand what exactly is happening in the market before considering how to position themselves. 1. What exactly is driving this rally? First, we need to acknowledge that this rally is not purely driven by speculative sentiment. There are at least several clear driving factors behind Bitcoin’s recent rise. First, institutional funds are flowing back. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen significant inflows. Data shows that from Monday to Thursday this week alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of about $1.6 billion, with Thursday’s single-day inflow around $606 million, one of the highest levels since May. This is distinctly different from the retail-driven rallies in the past. ETF funds mean that the traditional financial system is entering the crypto asset market through more compliant channels. If ETFs continue toChain liquidations, active leveraged funds, accelerating $BTC rise? This week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about 14,700 $BTC, the second highest since October 2025. Since August, the cumulative inflow is about 21,958 $BTC, indicating spot demand is indeed warming up. At the same time, the BTC inter-exchange flow pulse indicator has turned bullish. More BTC is flowing into derivatives platforms, representing renewed activity of leveraged funds. Spot buying supports the bottom, while leverage amplifies the speed of the rise. But leverage is always a double-edged sword. Around 13:10 today, BTC, ETH, and various altcoins experienced brief flash crashes. If a unified account is loaded with high-leverage long positions, a sudden flash crash in one coin can drag down the margin and trigger a chain of forced liquidations in other positions. So this rebound has more capital support than before, but it is also more fragile. Continuous ETF inflows are good news, but rapid leverage heating up is not always better. The subsequent market depends on whether ETF inflows can continue, and whether funding rates and open interest become overheated. Spot demand must continue to take over for the market to sustain; if only leverage chases the rally, a single flash crash could wipe out all profits. High-leverage altcoin positions should at least be isolated from each other; in extreme conditions, liquidating one is better than losing the entire account. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC surged from a short squeeze to a crash dump in just 48 hours: a two-way squeeze between bulls and bears, with no one escaping unscathed This rapid plunge perfectly confirms my previous judgment: in a high-leverage market, both bulls and bears are exposed naked; just two days ago, the bears were wiped out, and today the bulls chasing highs are collectively buried. Major coins like ETH were dragged down along with it. Essentially, this is the leverage backlash plus sentiment reversal after a sharp rally—no unexpected black swan event. 1. Why did BTC suddenly crash: from short squeeze to long liquidation, all it took was one bearish candle 1. Core internal cause: profit-taking + leverage liquidation, bulls crushed themselves In the previous 3 days, the price rose from 64,000 to nearly 80,000, with over 15% gains inflated by a large number of short liquidations pushing the price up, not purely supported by real buy orders. When the price hit the 80,000 mark, the regulatory optimism had already been partially priced in, with no new incremental funds stepping in. Institutions and whales who bought at lower levels started taking profits and selling, and the first wave of selling pressure broke short-term support. The most fatal factor was retail traders chasing highs with leveraged long positions. The recent short squeeze created the illusion of "only up, no down," causing countless traders to enter and add leverage in the 75,000-79,000 range, resulting in extremely crowded long positions. Once the price turned slightly, high-leverage longs were forcibly liquidated, and the passive selling pushed the price even lower, triggering a cascading liquidation stampede. Data shows that within the most intense 1-hour crash, $523 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for $448 million, over 85%—a complete reversal from the previous day's short liquidations which accounted for 80%, marking a classic long-liquidation scenario. 2. External trigger: rising geopolitical risks, collective pressure on risk assets Tensions between the US and Iran have raised global risk aversion, with market concerns that inflation rebound will delay the Fed's rate cut schedule. Equities, commodities, and other risk assets have simultaneously corrected. Crypto, as the most volatile risk asset, naturally fell the hardest, pouring cold water on already fragile bullish sentiment. 2. Why did ETH and all major coins crash simultaneously, and even more severely? This is a long-standing pattern in crypto markets, almost always replayed during BTC crashes, with little short-term fundamental correlation to the coins themselves: - Beta amplification effect: Most major coins have a price elasticity greater than 1 relative to BTC. When BTC rises, they rally even more on market sentiment; when BTC falls, their declines are amplified in sync. This rally was driven entirely by BTC’s regulatory and macro factors, with no independent positive catalysts for ETH, so naturally ETH had no resistance during the drop. - Liquidity reverse drain: In a downtrend, capital prioritizes liquidity preservation. BTC is the strongest asset in terms of market absorption and lowest slippage for liquidation. Large holders wanting to raise cash or reduce positions won’t dump BTC first and trap themselves; they sell ETH, SOL, and other less liquid major coins first. Concentrated selling pressure causes these coins to fall more than BTC. - Retail leverage concentration: Contract participants in major coins are mostly retail and speculative traders, who generally use more aggressive leverage than the BTC market. Panic triggers larger relative long liquidations by market cap in major coins, intensifying the stampede effect and accelerating the decline. 3. Essentially, it’s a two-way emotional squeeze market From a long-term perspective, the main themes of regulatory clarity and improved USD liquidity expectations remain intact. This drop is more like a technical pullback after consecutive sharp rallies, which also cleans out the leveraged longs chasing highs. But it’s extremely brutal for high-leverage players: two days ago, shorts were liquidated; unwilling to accept defeat, they flipped to longs chasing highs, only to be liquidated again today. In just two or three days, both bulls and bears are slaughtered, with principal capital sharply reduced. The same principle applies: at this volatility level, holding spot at most means floating profit drawdown; once high leverage is involved, whether long or short, there will always be a candle that clears you out. # Risk warning: This article is for market logic analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please assess risks rationally and make decisions cautiously."BTC Investment Journal" Issue 6 | Weekly Report for August 22, 2026 Reasons for the Rise, Cycle Position, and Bottom Range 1. Core Conclusions This Week ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ BTC strongly rebounded this week to about $78,000, up approximately 32% from the previous low of about $59,000. Core Judgment: BTC is transitioning from the "bottom building" phase into the "bottom rebound → early confirmation of a new cycle" phase, but it cannot yet be confirmed that a new bull market has fully started. 2. Five Main Reasons for This Rally 1. Improved liquidity expectations: U.S. financial conditions have marginally eased, benefiting risk assets. 2. ETF capital inflow resumed: Institutional buying has clearly recovered, which is the most important fundamental factor driving this rally. 3. Concentrated short covering: After breaking key levels, short stop-losses further propelled the rise. 4. Improved U.S. crypto regulatory expectations: The policy environment for institutional market entry continues to improve. 5. Market sentiment reversal: Fear quickly turned to greed, and capital began chasing the rally. Conclusion: This rally is not purely retail speculation but driven jointly by "institutional funds + liquidity + short covering + sentiment reversal." 3. V4.0 Core Indicators Indicator Current Assessment BTC Price ≈$78,000 Distance from 2025 High ≈-38% 200-Week Moving Average ≈$64,000, has been retaken MVRV ≈1.3—1.4, not yet overvalued AHR999 ≈0.51, has exited the bottom-buying zone Fear & Greed Index ≈78, slightly overheated in the short term SOPR ≈1.Is this rally in Bitcoin a bull comeback or a bull trap? Don't rush to go all in. Bitcoin has surged from 64,000 to 78,000 in three days, with 3.3 billion liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of which were shorts. Some on social media are already calling it a "new bull market," but I'll pour cold water on that. This rise isn't just pure sentiment; there are real factors: the US Treasury is buying back bonds to inject liquidity, large amounts of real money are flowing into ETFs, and shorts are too crowded above 68,000, causing a direct short squeeze that keeps pushing prices higher. But here's the problem: short covering is a one-time buy; once it's done, it's gone, and someone has to take over afterward. Single-day ETF inflows don't count; we need to see continuous weekly inflows. The macro environment is only temporarily loose; the Fed hasn't truly cut rates yet. Price breaking above the 200-day moving average doesn't guarantee stability; there are many false breakouts. The daily RSI is already overbought, and this slope can't continue indefinitely. Chasing this rally short-term means catching the falling knife. Don't chase highs in the short term. The 80,000-82,000 range above is strong resistance with many trapped longs; the 70,000-72,000 range below is critical—hold that before talking about higher prices. If it falls below 69,000, this rally is just a big rebound, not the start of a bull market. A true bull market requires a pullback that doesn't break support + continuous ETF inflows + a real Fed pivot, none of which are fully confirmed now. Those calling for a bull market now might be the same people who called for zero two months ago. The market can go up or come back down. Don't let FOMO push you to leverage up; the biggest losers in bull markets are those chasing highs with leverage. The signals are there but not conclusive; wait for a pullback and save your ammo. #Bitcoin breaks $70,000 for the first time in two months #Bitcoin hits 2023 $BTC highs The biggest risk in the leverage compounding challenge is not the direction but the position holding time. While the number increased from 100 to 1134, was the actual exposure the same? The original text is a compounding challenge record where an account grew from around 1 million KRW capital to about 11.34 million KRW. The core of the strategy is that when ETH's representative meme coin PEPE stayed at the bottom range, Squirrel used unrealized profits to additionally enter a PEPE long position. Afterward, with PEPE's rise, the entire account approached the target. This structure is not a simple spot purchase but a compounding leverage process that reinvests unrealized profits from existing positions as new margin. While the market maintains an upward trend, profits increase exponentially, but if it swings sharply once in the opposite direction, the margin ratio deteriorates rapidly. - From a derivative positioning perspective, this strategy is essentially a directional bet on ETH ecosystem meme coins and simultaneously an indirect exposure to a short squeeze path. - PEPE is an asset with higher beta compared to ETH #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ On-chain whale addresses have already stopped large-scale continuous accumulation, and the incremental buying power has significantly weakened. Currently, the market mainly relies on ETF funds and retail investors to take over. Relying only on these two types of funds makes it difficult to support the continuous creation of new highs in the coin price. Without new large-scale main funds entering the market, upward momentum will become arduous. $BTC Today, let's briefly discuss the Genius Act. The two waves of growth have shown everyone signals of a bull market rebound; why not mention the Genius Act? Naturally, there are personal views on this. The Genius Act has little to do with the crypto circle itself and is mainly a pathway for stablecoins. It can even be said to be a targeted act, with little correlation to the current rise. Although the timing of the growth coincides closely with the passing of the act, it is not considered a positive signal. The previous bottom for Bitcoin was around 62200, and in just one week, it reached a high of 75767, an extremely considerable increase. What is the connection between these two? The essence of the Genius Act is stablecoins, not crypto tokens, and its targets are very clear: in the short term, Tether company; in the long term, paving the way for US dollar hegemony. The cryptocurrencies with the largest growth this time are also related to stablecoin linkages, such as Ethereum, SOL, XRP, DOGE, and even Bitcoin. But relying solely on this news to start a bull market is unrealistic; have you ever thought about whether stablecoins themselves conflict with crypto tokens? It is believed that these two share a common market, which means an inherent conflict of interest. What Trump wants to do is nothing more than replace the US dollar with stablecoins, returning currency pricing power to the president himself, so the positioning of crypto tokens becomes extremely awkward. It can be said that the larger the stablecoin market, the smaller the market left for crypto tokens; the two are competitors in the same industry. So, what is the way out for these tokens? The current understanding is the linkage itself, which can serve as a bridge between stablecoins and US stocks or other values. For example, what BN is doingIn the morning, people shouted "bulls back in," and by the afternoon, they were calling blockchain a scam 😅 In the past 4 hours, the entire network liquidated $639 million, with long positions at $504 million, accounting for 78.9%. But if you look at the 24-hour window, shorts actually liquidated more, $1.01 billion versus $791 million. Those who chased shorts in the past two days and those chasing longs today are being taken out in turns. Leverage is lively, but the spot market deserves a closer look. ETF inflows look pretty good, but when broken down, something seems off. On August 20, the entire market had a net inflow of $606 million, the largest day since May 5. Among that, BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $503 million, while all other funds combined barely exceeded $100 million. Looking back at other big inflow days this year, BlackRock usually accounts for 45% to 63%. On May 1 it was 45%, May 4 was 63%, and the day before, August 19, was only 55%. The 83% is an outlier. So strictly speaking, this isn't institutions scrambling to accumulate; it's one institution scrambling. The problem with this kind of buying is that it's not diversified. If BlackRock stops buying one day, that $500 million disappears immediately, and others can't make up that volume. By the way, a pitfall: On Farside's table, the total for August 21 is only $68.2 million, which looks like buying has cooled off, but the IBIT cell shows a dash, meaning the data hasn't been reported yet, not zero. Whether they bought in the past two days or not, we have to wait for that cell to be filled to know. Any conclusions now are just guesses. FalconX and Ethena have established a $1 billion secured credit facility, channeling USDe-backed assets into overcollateralized institutional loans through an SPV, with collateral held by qualified custodians. Stablecoin yields are expanding from basis trading to credit assets, but custody, borrower quality, and transparency will become new risk factors. #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ Solana's recent speed upgrade is not simply about requiring nodes to "run faster," but involves a complete overhaul of the consensus mechanism. The node threshold has not risen; rather, it is undergoing structural reconstruction — the technical threshold is increasing, while the economic threshold is decreasing. On August 21, Solana mainnet officially reduced block production time from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds. This is just the beginning, with the ultimate goal being 200 milliseconds. Validators face two opposing forces simultaneously. The technical threshold is indeed rising: production environment validators now require 24-core CPUs, 384-512GB of memory, and 10Gbps network. At the same time, BLS key registration has become mandatory; those who have not registered since July 20 have directly lost voting rights and staking rewards. However, the economic threshold is significantly lowering. After the Alpenglow upgrade, the minimum profitable staking threshold is expected to drop sharply from about 4,850 SOL to about 450 SOL. Marinade Labs CEO also confirmed that the validator admission threshold will be lowered after the upgrade. So the conclusion is clear: Alpenglow is not about driving away small nodes; it is about using higher technical standards to filter operators while lowering the economic threshold to allow more people to qualify for participation. The VAT system initially sets the maximum number of validator nodes at 2,000 — the threshold is lowered, but the number of entry slots is limited. For retail users, the technical threshold to run a node themselves is higher, but the threshold to participate through staking pools is actually lower. This Rally Might Be a Trap 🚨 BTC’s move from $65K to $73K looks explosive—but I’m not convinced it’s a clean bull breakout. This rally may be powered by three things at once: macro relief, a massive short squeeze, and whales potentially using the hype to unload. The Treasury’s long-term debt buyback helped push the 30Y yield from 5.34% to 5.19%, giving risk assets room to breathe$BTC #Gold4600VsBonds #BTC77KFlowTest Gold has surged wildly again. On August 21, international spot gold broke through $4600/oz, reaching a high close to $4640, with a weekly increase of over 4%, marking the third consecutive week of gains. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchase operations, the dollar weakened, and market concerns about U.S. fiscal and long-term debt resurfaced. On the surface, this appears to be a typical gold rally. But if you look at gold and U.S. Treasuries together, a more noteworthy change emerges: In the past, during times of risk, capital usually first bought U.S. Treasuries; now, more and more capital is choosing gold. What does this mean? The real challenge gold poses may not be to Treasury yields, but to the status of U.S. Treasuries as the world's core safe-haven asset. 1. Why is gold rising while U.S. Treasuries have become the market's focus? Over the past decades, the global financial market has formed a very stable logic: When the economy is weak, buy U.S. Treasuries. When war breaks out, buy U.S. Treasuries. When the stock market crashes, buy U.S. Treasuries. When the market panics, capital flows into U.S. government bonds. The reason is simple. U.S. Treasuries are backed by the credit of the U.S. government, and the dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. Therefore, U.S. Treasuries have long played a very important role: a "safe harbor" for global capital. But now a problem has arisen. The scale of U.S. government debt continues to expand, long-term fiscal deficits persist, and the market is increasingly concerned about one question: If U.S. long-term debt keeps increasing, who will take on so many Treasuries in the future? This is the real logic behind the gold rally. 2. The most noteworthyAfter $BTC surged to 78,000, the first real test has arrived. Yesterday it peaked near 78,800, but today it didn’t break through 80,000 directly; instead, it started to pull back. Many people panic when they see a correction. But I actually think the most important thing now isn’t how much it has dropped, but whether it can hold around 75,000. This round of rally is supported by ETF capital inflows and liquidity expectations brought by the US Treasury’s expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases; the fundamentals are not just pulled up out of thin air. So we can’t simply interpret this as a top. If BTC quickly recovers after testing around 75,000, it indicates healthy high-level turnover, and there is still a chance to challenge 80,000 again. But if 75,000 is lost and the rebound lacks volume, then be cautious that this surge is entering a profit-taking phase. 80,000 is not the most critical number; 75,000 is. Hold that level, and remain bullish. If it breaks below, then we talk about risks again. #Samsung shareholder returns implemented, up to about $80 billion I am Cige. Samsung has launched the largest shareholder return plan in the history of Korean companies. Between 90 trillion and 110 trillion KRW, equivalent to $65 billion to $80 billion, continuing the policy of using 50% of cumulative free cash flow from 2024 to 2026 for shareholder returns. SK Hynix previously announced a buyback and cancellation plan of about 40 trillion KRW. Both Korean memory giants are accelerating the return of cash flow brought by AI prosperity to shareholders. Samsung and SK Hynix are walking a tightrope between massive capital expenditures and huge shareholder returns. The total investment in the two new wafer fabs in Yongin and Cheongju is about 54.3 trillion KRW, and HBM and advanced process capacity expansions have not stopped. Expanding production on one hand and paying dividends on the other, being able to sustain both indicates that the cash flow brought by AI is indeed undergoing a qualitative change. However, the market will continue to observe whether the huge returns will compress the space for the next round of expansion and technology investment. Impact on BTC: The large-scale shareholder returns by memory giants indirectly verify the sustainability of AI infrastructure capital expenditures. The consumption of fiat credit is still accelerating, and the narrative of non-sovereign assets has not been weakened. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $DOGE $CORE If even one person had paid attention to my update yesterday about the project team dumping 50 million core tokens, the liquidation wouldn't have happened. Currently, the insider trading dumped a little over half around 12 o'clock, with half still remaining. Many stubbornly say the whole crypto market is down today. Yes, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped about 1%, but core dropped 35%. This shows the lack of liquidity in core. The project team has no funds to support the price. Even the staked Bitcoin has always been staked by the project team themselves to earn core for dumping. Initially, Bitcoin believers came to stake core, but so far, the staked Bitcoin cannot be redeemed and is permanently locked on the chain. Many can observe that the staked Bitcoin basically hasn't moved, sometimes a few more, sometimes a few less. Those on Twitter can see that the core community believers' anger towards core has reached its peak. Today, just 18 million in one minute can dump the price by 35%. What I want to say is that the project team is preparing to dump 50 million tokens, using the market to unload and purely cut retail investors as leeks.$FUTU This Q2 financial report focuses not only on revenue growth but also on several high-frequency operating indicators: accounts, customer assets, transaction volume, and financing balances, all rising simultaneously. For internet brokerages, this means this quarter's growth is not driven by a single business but rather by a combined increase in client scale and trading activity. Let's look at core data: Q2 total revenue was HKD 7.2 billion, up 35.6% year-on-year; gross profit was HKD 6.215 billion, up 33.9% year-on-year; Operating profit was HKD 4.464 billion, up 33.5% year-on-year. Net profit was HKD 3.642 billion, up 41.6% year-on-year; On a Non-GAAP basis, adjusted net profit was HKD 3.725 billion, up 40.1% year-on-year. Basic earnings per ADS were HKD 26.32, up from HKD 18.48 in the same period last year. The income structure is still supported by both trading and interest. Brokerage commission and fee income was HKD 3.361 billion, up 30.3% year-on-year; Interest income was HKD 3.124 billion, up 36.5% year-on-year; Other income was HKD 716 million, up 61.2% year-on-year. This structure shows that this quarter's performance benefited not only from increased transaction volume but also from increased income related to financing and cash management, rather than relying solely on commission elasticity from unilateral market increases. Accounts and customer assets continued to expand. At the end of the period, the number of paying accounts reached 3.8427 million, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%; Securities accounts numbered 6.6396 million, a year-on-year increase of 26.$HEMI has shown a downward probe signal; what about the subsequent trend? HEMI has surged rapidly this time, but I actually do not recommend chasing the rally. First, the gains have clearly overextended short-term sentiment. In the past 7 days, HEMI once rose over 70%, but it has now noticeably pulled back from the highs, indicating that profit-taking has begun at the top. Second, the circulating supply is too small, and there is significant unlocking pressure ahead. HEMI's total supply is 10 billion tokens, with less than 1 billion currently circulating. On August 29, about 340 million tokens will be unlocked, equivalent to roughly 15% of the current market cap, which is a clear pressure on the price. Third, although the project itself has a BTC+ETH dual-ecosystem narrative, a good narrative does not necessarily mean the token price will rise. In June this year, Hemi experienced a mainnet failure, so the project's fundamentals and network stability still need further verification. HEMI is basically confirmed to be following the mainstream trend, so it is not suitable to blindly chase the highs in the short term. If it continues to surge but the capital does not keep up, I prefer to wait for a pullback; especially as unlocking approaches, selling pressure may increase further. With the rapid rise, small circulating supply, and upcoming unlocking, I am bearish in the short term. I would rather wait for a pullback confirmation than chase at the highs. #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 The premium on US stock AI infrastructure is resonating across markets with crypto computing power assets. The top family office disclosed in its 13F filing that it built a position of 4.075 million shares of $BTDR at a cost of $15.89 in Q2, while Jane Street simultaneously increased its holdings to 12.933 million shares, showing a capital allocation preference for mining-transformed HPC computing power. As the US tech sector maintains risk appetite and its over $2 billion reserve orders accelerate delivery, a computing power revaluation rally will unfold. If high US dollar interest rates suppress high-beta valuations in US stocks or BTC prices sharply retrace, this linkage scenario will fail. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Samsung's $80 Billion Shareholder Return Implemented: Chip Giant Is Saying Goodbye to Blind Overexpansion Samsung Electronics has officially announced a shareholder return plan of up to $80 billion, including cash dividends, buybacks, and cancellations. Along with SK Hynix's previous large-scale buybacks, chip giants are undergoing a profound strategic shift. The semiconductor industry's biggest headache in the past was high capital expenditure and cyclical overcompetition. During boom periods, companies would frantically build factories and buy equipment, but when downturns hit, massive depreciation would quickly eat up all profits. However, this AI storage supercycle breaks the old cycle. The massive free cash flow generated by HBM high-bandwidth memory and high-end server storage allows giants to avoid low-end price wars and instead learn from leading US tech stocks by directly boosting earnings per share (EPS) through buybacks and cancellations, systematically correcting the "Korean discount" phenomenon. The logic for evaluating chip stocks has upgraded: the core focus is no longer just on how fast capacity expands, but whether the company can maintain a healthy balance between advanced process R&D and cash flow returns to shareholders. Only with an HBM technology moat and solid buyback support can companies weather the cyclical bull and bear markets. Facing large-scale buybacks in chip stocks, do you value more the underpinning value of dividends and cancellations, or the growth potential of future advanced processes? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 Since July 19, over 12,500 coins have been sent to Binance, locking up 850 million. You might say he's topping out, but his moves are particularly calm, selling off in batches, clearly not in a hurry. This kind of selling tactic is the most insidious; he won't crash the price but will feed it to you slowly, making you think every rebound still has potential. A 24% increase in one week is indeed scary, the strongest single week since March 2023. But the more it goes like this, the less I dare to follow. Look, retail investors are still rushing in, with 189,000 liquidations. This is not a bull market celebration; it's carrying the giant whales on their shoulders. I know some will say don't get off as long as the trend isn't broken, but you have to distinguish who is buying and who is selling. The huge inflows to exchanges are not just for show; every pump has someone offloading chips to the chasing buyers. My principle is simple: whales can be wrong, but their moves always carry information asymmetry. You don't have to sell with them, but at least don't add positions at this level. When the market is hottest, your ears are full of good news; the only thing you should do then is take your hands off the order button. Wait for this divergence to finish, and the direction will reveal itself $BTC $ETH #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 $BTC #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC $BTC Trump is a businessman It's not entirely that what Trump says is false, but it means the "statement" signal source itself is not neutral—those who are bullish partly have vested interests. You can't tell if this sentence is a "presidential policy judgment" or a "businessman calling for his own assets."Positive news triggers a pullback, dissecting the four major causes of intense volatility in $TRUMP-related tokens Many people see related concept tokens surge and then quickly fall, simply assuming deliberate profit-taking. In fact, this is a normal market trend formed by multiple overlapping factors. 1. The market has priced in the positive news in advance, and funds exit when the news is released Previously, related positive news continued to ferment, with industry-friendly policies and crypto summits emerging one after another. Mainstream tokens like $BTC and $ETH had already experienced an upward trend in advance. When the news officially lands, the market lacks new upward expectations, and a large amount of holding funds choose to take profits and exit. 2. Information asymmetry among funds, with major players leading ordinary investors Institutions and whales can capture news clues early and lay out chips at low levels in advance. When the entire network is flooded with news and retail investors follow suit, it happens to be the stage when large funds sell off in batches to realize profits. 3. High-level long leverage accumulation amplifies the decline During the previous continuous rise, the market's long leverage positions increased significantly. A slight price pullback triggers mass forced liquidations, and chain selling further depresses prices, creating the impression of a rapid market crash. 4. Hot concept tokens rely on sentiment-driven dynamics, with extreme rise and fall rhythms #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain? Waking up, Bitcoin is still rising—approaching $80,000. Is this a raging bull run or the final bull trap? If you haven't checked the market in the past two days, opening the candlestick chart now might make you feel like you time-traveled in your sleep. Bitcoin surged from $57,600 at the beginning of July to a high of $79,555, nearly hitting the $80,000 mark. It has gained over 24% this week, marking the largest weekly increase since March 2023. Behind this is a short squeeze frenzy that wiped out 189,000 traders. In the past three days, about $4.5 billion worth of short positions across the market have been liquidated. Short sellers lie scattered everywhere. Three driving forces have pushed $BTC into a frenzy: Policy—The US Treasury Secretary announced a doubling of Treasury buyback size, causing long-term bond yields to fall; Trump met with crypto executives, strongly promoting the "Clear Act." Regulatory expectations have shifted from a "sword hanging overhead" to a "boost underfoot." Short squeeze—Perpetual contract funding rates have been negative for a long time, with short leverage piled to the extreme. The higher the price rises, the more liquidations occur, the stronger the buying pressure—a self-reinforcing death spiral. Institutional funds—ETFs attracted over $1 billion this week, BlackRock's IBIT grabbed $280 million in a single day; whales increased holdings by $2.75 billion over 60 days. Standard Chartered bluntly stated that the $100,000 target might even be "too conservative." But can the capital flow continue? There is a ceiling to the short squeeze—once shorts are liquidated, passive buying disappears. Whether the price can continue to rise depends on two legs: whether ETFs can maintain hundreds of millions of dollars in net inflows, and whether Strategy will restart financing to buy coins. Against the backdrop of a general contraction in major tech weights, funds have driven $TSLA to rally more than 5% against the trend, catalyzed by localized events. The market shows a clear structural diversion; while mainstream indices are under pressure, short-term long positions quickly concentrate on a single target. The main driver comes from expectations of Austin Cybercab test rides at the end of the month and technical demonstration news, with localized liquidity amplifying risk appetite pulses. This round of buying triggered by specific nodes temporarily detaches pricing logic from macro inflation and interest rate suppression, shifting to short-term pricing of frontier technology premiums. If the technical details and booking pace of the on-site demonstration exceed expectations, short covering will further push up prices; however, if the demonstration is confirmed to be limited to very narrow specific scenarios, the upward trend will weaken. When the broader market pressure intensifies or the test rides lack substantial commercialization support, highly concentrated long positions are prone to triggering profit-taking selling pressure, causing valuation centers to revert to industry averages; if the broader market stabilizes and incremental funds take over, downward pressure will ease. If the subsequent announced delivery schedule is significantly delayed, the current valuation logic based on sentiment premiums will be directly falsified. The most important variable to watch in the coming days is whether the specific implementation details of the technical demonstration can sustain the currently accumulated short-term positions. #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战$BTC around $77K and $ETH near $2.4K — the macro backdrop is finally starting to cooperate. Treasury buybacks, a softer dollar, stronger ETF inflows and expectations of easier Fed policy are all adding fuel to risk assets. But I’m not treating this rally as confirmed yet. The real test is whether institutional demand can keep absorbing supply. Around $1.6B in weekly spot BTC ETF inflows is encouraging, but sustained flows matter more than one strong week. $BTC $ETH #BTC77KFlowTest HIP-4 adds a permissionless event prediction market to Hyperliquid, allowing traders to trade prediction contracts within the same account. This is expected to bring new fee revenue, lock up a large amount of HYPE tokens to reduce circulation, and push the platform from a simple contract DEX to a comprehensive trading infrastructure. However, there are also issues such as high market creation barriers that may lead to monopolization by large holders, potential disputes in event settlement, and increased regulatory pressure due to its gambling attributes. This represents a fundamental upgrade benefit, but the value ultimately depends on whether the prediction market can generate real and sustainable trading volume. This is only a project logic explanation and does not constitute investment advice. Account Position Divergence Radar Is the directional consensus real or fake? Just compare the account proportions with the top holdings. $BEAT: Neither all accounts, top accounts, nor top holdings are aligned in the same direction; currently, it looks more like a divergence market. Price rises while positions decrease, indicating the driving force likely comes from old positions exiting. When the metrics are not aligned on one side, first observe which side the top holdings converge to, then see if the price responds accordingly. $DOGE: More accounts are bullish, but the top position weights are bearish, so the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position scale. The rise is not accompanied by position withdrawals; new positions have already participated, but continuation depends on subsequent price response. The top holdings need to recover towards 1 for the position weights to start matching account sentiment. $SUI: Account direction is bullish, but top holdings are bearish; the side with more participants is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price is rising while open interest is falling, which most certainly indicates position reduction driving the move, but the specific exiting party cannot be confirmed by this data alone. The account side is already bullish; next, it depends on whether the top positions are willing to shift their weight to the same side.
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