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Who has been mainly transferring BTC to exchanges during this recent downturn?
On-chain data shows: short-term holders transfer in about 2200 BTC per hour on average within 4 hours, while long-term holders only about 480 BTC, roughly one-fifth of the former.📉
❓ How to interpret these numbers?
1️⃣ Short-term holders: the transfer-in volume is the 4th highest since the rally started in August, but the peak is already lower than on October 8.
2️⃣ Long-term holders: on October 8, it surged to about 3700 BTC per hour, now back to around 480 BTC, a drop of about 87%.
3️⃣ Transferring to exchanges ≠ necessarily selling, but it is the most direct signal of potential selling pressure.
📌 In this downturn, those sending coins to exchanges are mainly recent buyers; the long-term holders are generally stable, and the short-term selling pressure is weaker than on October 8.
Two reminders for friends with light positions:
· Short-term holders’ transfers in are still at high levels since August, short-term volatility may not be over, so leave some room for leverage and position.
· Watching changes in this flow is more revealing of who is selling than watching a single candlestick.
Are you holding without moving this round, or have you also transferred coins to exchanges?👇
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please be cautious of risks.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #OnChainData #LongTermHoldersRenting GPUs to the AI company CoreWeave, the people who lent it money have been rushing to buy insurance these past two days, fearing it won't be able to repay. The first to feel the pain in this AI wave is actually the sublessor.KOSPI's early rebound shows that dip demand can return quickly after a circuit-breaker session. Yet foreign investors were still net sellers early Oct 16, so the move has not resolved whether external capital is prepared to support the chip rebound. Official monitoring may steady nerves, but flow persistence remains unproven.
#KOSPIReboundFlowWatch On October 16, today in the small coins I am paying attention to ALEO, STRK, and INJ.
ALEO is currently priced at about $0.0454, up approximately 56.7% in the past 7 days and about 200.7% in the past 30 days. Ledger now supports USDCx on Aleo, and the Arc mainnet has also launched. Progress has been made on implementation, but this increase is quite significant, so we need to watch for dilution pressure from token issuance going forward. Support is first seen at 0.0374–0.0384, with resistance at 0.048–0.050; wait for a pullback to find an opportunity.
STRK is currently priced at about $0.0841, up approximately 55.8% in the past 7 days and about 224.8% in the past 30 days. Starknet is discussing whether to research an independent L1 with quantum security; this is still in the voting and research phase and does not mean a migration decision has been made. The recent increase is large, and unlocked supply should also be monitored. Support is seen at 0.0717–0.0768; wait for a retracement to hold.
INJ is currently priced at about $9.18, up approximately 26.1% in the past 24 hours, 26.1% in the past 7 days, and 56.1% in the past 30 days. Institutional infrastructure has made progress, and there was a volume surge and strengthening on the 4-hour chart, but the short-term rise is sharp. Do not chase here; wait for a pullback around 8.55–8.85 to hold, then see if there is an opportunity.#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Tesla finally unveiled the new generation Roadster last night. They started taking $50,000 deposits back in 2017, and it's been delayed for almost nine years.
The live demo was indeed impressive: the car clings upside down on a curve, then flies out doing flips, hovers, and lands; it accelerates from zero to sixty miles per hour in under a second, using SpaceX thrusters and fans. But they gave no concrete information, no price announced, and mass production won't start until 2028. This car is basically a small-batch high-end toy, and CNBC openly said it basically has no impact on the company's finances. Last year, Altman even posted a screenshot of his cancellation on X, having waited seven and a half years and deciding not to wait any longer.
What will determine the stock price is the Q3 earnings report after the market closes next Wednesday. Q3 deliveries were 486,500 vehicles, better than the market expectation of over 460,000, but still about 2% less year-over-year, with energy storage installations at 13.7 GWh. What everyone wants to hear about are profit margins, Robotaxi, and robot progress; no matter how cool the flying car is, it won't change the valuation.
On the chip front, Nvidia dropped more than 2% intraday on Thursday to around $216, AMD fell about 6%, Micron dropped 5% in early trading but closed up 1.87%. Jensen Huang said that CoreWeave's "financing costs are actually decreasing," which helped recover much of the new cloud providers' losses.
With interest rates weighing down, tech stocks are now news-driven, moving several points up or down on a single headline. Before Tesla's earnings report comes out, watch the market carefully and hold your position for now $TSLA $FIL Solstice (Network Version 29) is scheduled to activate on October 19, 2026, mainly to accomplish two things:
1. Decommission the Fil+ system
Previously, verified data (Fil+) could obtain higher quality-adjusted power. After the upgrade, new sectors will be calculated at the highest quality power regardless of content, and verification registration and DataCap-related functions will be frozen.
2. Change in block reward distribution
Previously, 100% of block rewards went to miners. After the upgrade, the rewards will be split:
A portion will continue to go to consensus miners
A portion will be allocated to Service Orchestrators (service providers responsible for bringing paid demand)
And some may be burned
The consensus share will gradually decrease, while the service share will gradually increase according to actual paid demand targets.
Importance assessment
Token economics: Changes how rewards are distributed, attempting to shift incentives from "stacking storage" to "bringing real paid usage"
For miners: New sectors will no longer differ based on whether data is "verified," and miners will share part of the rewards with Orchestrators
For network direction: Clearly moving towards a service economy and paid demand. The short-term price impact is moderate. This is a structural change, not a direct supply reduction, so market reactions are usually less immediate than at the end of a vesting period
Technical risk: This is a mandatory upgrade; nodes and storage providers must upgrade
Summary
Solstice is not a minor patch but an important adjustment to the Filecoin reward mechanism, aiming to make the network focus more on real paid demand rather than simply expanding capacity. It is meaningful for the long-term direction but usually does not have as direct a short-term price catalyst effect as events like "significant supply reduction." Fell below 80,000 then pulled back to 82,000, $929 million wiped out; Pirate Chain suddenly created 39.8 million coins out of thin air, what's going on with privacy coins?
Last night’s market slapped both bulls and bears.
$BTC once dropped to 79,694 during the session, breaking below 80,000 for the first time since mid-September, but then stubbornly pulled back near 82,300, up slightly 0.8% in 24 hours. $ETH returned to 2,453, up 1%. But in the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $929 million, with long positions liquidated $777 million, accounting for over 80%.
There’s something today exactly like last time with Zano.
Privacy coin project Pirate Chain suffered a vulnerability attack, 39.8 million ARRR coins were created out of thin air. The network is still running, but the official team has warned: do not transfer any funds until recovery is complete. The Zano rollback of one month is still fresh, and now Pirate Chain repeats the same. In the privacy coin sector, code risk is really much greater than price risk.
Someone is frantically selling BTC to buy ETH. A giant whale/institution address sold a total of 1,601 BTC in 5 days, exchanged for 132 million USDC, then bought 53,095 ETH at an average price of 2,497. This is not a small move, it’s a directional portfolio adjustment.
ETFs had a net outflow of 262 million yesterday, with net outflows for the week. The 80,000 level is being tugged back and forth, leverage has already been cleared once. Were you liquidated today? Let’s talk in the comments 👇 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix’s Q3 is a test of monetisation, not just audience growth: the key question is whether advertising can generate more revenue from existing viewers while protecting profitability. Management’s guidance of $12.86 billion in revenue and a 33.2% operating margin provides a clear benchmark. My view is cautiously positive, but the quality of any earnings beat matters—stronger ad sales and resilient engagement would be more convincing than cost reductions alone.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 🚨🚨🚨 Bitcoin price trends after the last three U.S. midterm elections
In 2014, the bottom was reached 71 days after the election, with a drop of -46.7%.
In 2018, the bottom was reached 39 days after the election, with a drop of -50.6%.
In 2022, the bottom was reached 1 day after the election, with a drop of -14.9%.
After every midterm election, Bitcoin prices hit new lows, creating a golden pit.
What will happen in 2026?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC The moment the surgical light turned on, what I saw was not a market trend line, but an aortic aneurysm that was passive and could rupture at any time.
This new MSCI regulation is essentially a preoperative assessment. Non-operating companies—those that have turned their balance sheets into Bitcoin vaults—are being put on the imaging examination table. November 11th is the final list; the procedure takes effect after the market close on November 30th. The time window in between is exactly a period of myocardial stunning, with extremely unstable hemodynamics.
Let's first talk about the pathological mechanism. Targets like Strategy and Metaplanet essentially transform the company's left ventricle into a leveraged crypto pump. Their stock prices are not supported by core business cash flow but rely on Bitcoin as an allogeneic vascular bridge. The problem is that MSCI's index inclusion criteria assess "operating" status—that is, whether the myocardium itself has autonomous contraction ability, not supported by an external circulatory machine. Once judged as non-operating, passive funds must reduce holdings according to the rules. This is not an emotional sell-off but a mechanical, body surface area-based, non-negotiable blood loss.
I want to emphasize one point: currently, no company has been officially removed. This is a critical preoperative diagnostic divergence. Some in the market are pricing as if "diagnosed," which is overdiagnosis and a typical iatrogenic panic. The real risk window is November 11th; all declines before that are merely symptoms, not the lesion itself.
Next, consider the linkage with tokenized US stock targets like XIWM. What are they like? Like a myocardial biopsy after transplantation—on the surface, indicators appear normal, but ischemia-reperfusion injury may suddenly manifest within hours. Tokenized US stocks play a very special role during crypto market trading hours: they serve as 24-hour continuous ECG monitoring, while the pricing power of the underlying assets remains in New York's catheterization lab. Two circulatory systems coexist, amplifying blood pressure fluctuations.
Hemodynamic deduction: if MSCI ultimately excludes, passive fund outflows will be quantitative and measurable, similar to a planned atrial septal repair surgery; if retained, the currently mistakenly punished portion will instantly restore perfusion like myocardium after coronary spasm relief. The real risk is not in the outcome but in the rebalancing window before the market close on November 30th—that is a critical point of extracorporeal circulation transition, where any sudden blood pressure drop could trigger a chain reaction of hypotension.
As for those companies propping up their balance sheets with coin prices, I must say something calmly: their balance sheet structure is very much like dilated cardiomyopathy—the ventricles get larger, the walls thinner, and stroke volume decreases. When coin prices rise, this is called leveraged thickening; when prices plateau, this is the compensation period; when prices fall, this is decompensation.
The final list has not been released; everything is still in preoperative discussion. #mscibtctreasuryrulesInflation has exploded again, how much longer does the crypto world have to endure?
September's CPI and PPI exceeded expectations for two consecutive days. Honestly, the moment I saw the data, my heart skipped a beat.
PPI soared 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Gasoline prices rose 20.3% in one month, diesel up 21%, and the energy shock is spreading along the supply chain into various sectors. Core PPI also jumped from 4.7% to 5.0% year-on-year.
This is not a price increase in a single category; it is systemic price pressure penetrating deeper.
Latest CME data: the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October is 71.8%, but by December, the probability of no change plummets to 7.2%, with a combined 92.8% chance of a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike. Research reports from CICC and CITIC Securities are basically consistent—no change in October, but a high likelihood of a hike in December.
So don’t fantasize about "all bad news priced in." Until rate hike expectations fade, liquidity will remain a heavy iron plate pressing down on all risk assets.
$BTC—Stable on the surface, hollow underneath
Currently around 82,000, the trend looks okay, but Glassnode’s on-chain data is worrisome. After the 80,000 buy resistance was absorbed, new buying did not effectively replenish it; support liquidity is actually thinning. New buy orders mainly cluster around 78,000, essentially passive defense, not active offense.
The meaning is clear: the surface rebound is a technical correction, not a trend reversal. Once 78,000 fails to hold, there is a vacuum below, and the drop will be rapid.
$ETH—Even worse than BTC
Currently at 2,439, the hourly chart rebounded sharply from 2,313, but $280 million liquidations occurred in 24 hours, mostly long positions, with the largest single liquidation at $11.84 million.
An interesting detail: Huang Licheng just added $250,000 margin to stubbornly hold a 25x long position, with a liquidation price at 2,333; meanwhile, another whale who opened a position at 4,101 cut losses and liquidated $13.45 million.
Old retail investors are accepting losses and exiting, while new big players are accumulating at the bottom. But overall, $ETH remains weaker than $BTC, with a weak rebound and a pattern of grinding bottom sideways.
$ZEC—Small coins are hard to profit from
Currently around 1,223, it dipped overnight to 1,179 then slightly recovered, intraday surged to 1,244 but met resistance and fell back. The rebound mainly relies on short covering, not trend-driven buying. There is heavy trapped position pressure around 1,250–1,260.
Small coins are more sensitive to news, and volatility is amplified. If you get it right, you profit; if wrong, you get hit. Poor position control means getting slapped from both sides.
Some heartfelt advice
At this stage, heavy positions are a gamble with your life. Before macro expectations become clear, all big rises and falls could be shakeouts.
Take light positions for short-term corrections, strictly use stop-losses, and don’t rush to heavily invest to recover losses. Keep steady pace; survival is more important than anything.
The market won’t stay like this forever, but the premise is you have to be in the game.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The speech in Washington ended. Here's a summary for everyone:
Core: Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that inflation is high but are not in a hurry to raise interest rates immediately. They want to continue observing more economic data and will not tighten policy right away. There is no commitment to rate cuts; the stance is dovish but not extremely accommodative.
👉 Market reaction: U.S. Treasury yields slightly retreated, the dollar weakened, and risk appetite increased. This is the main driver behind today's cryptocurrency market rebound.
Impact on BTC trend:
1. Short term: Positive support for BTC. As long as U.S. Treasury yields do not rebound higher, BTC has a chance to maintain this oversold rebound; however, this is just a corrective rally, not a new major uptrend.
2. Key chart point: Holding the 81600 support level preserves the rebound structure; if this level is broken, the rebound ends, and BTC will fall again, with altcoins diving simultaneously.
3. Hidden risk: The speech leaves open the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation continues to rebound. If inflation data rises again, expectations will quickly turn hawkish, suppressing BTC.CPI flipped overnight, and the market just threw the table😱
Honestly, I didn’t expect this wave either.
I originally thought it would just be a data shake-up, a quick spike, and then the necessary washout would be done and dusted. But CPI at 3.7% completely tore apart the previous cooling narrative, and PPI month-on-month at 1.3% set the strongest record in over four years. Both exceeded expectations simultaneously, and the market wasn’t even given time to react.
$BTC spiked just above 80,000, triggering $485 million in liquidations across the network within an hour, with longs accounting for $464 million—$ETH alone bore $200 million [reference:2]. What does this mean? Huang Licheng rolled from 56,000 to 12.25 million in 4 months, and this spike knocked him back to 21,800, wasting over half a year and even losing money [reference:3]. $ETH fell below 2400; the next technical support level to hold is the psychological 2000 mark.
Many were confident that "after one round of decline, the bad news was priced in." But this inflation hammer clearly wasn’t priced in advance. The core contradiction has changed—the market is now repricing whether the Fed will move in October or hike in December, with CME’s probability of an October rate hike more than doubling from a low point. The path is unclear, and that’s the most dangerous part.
Inflation not falling, US Treasury yields surging, the dollar strengthening, risk assets all taking hits, crypto can’t stay immune. $BTC probing 70,000 is not alarmist, and $ETH at 2000 should be mentally prepared for repeated tests.
But one thing must be clear: this macro-driven sell-off, with spikes and chain liquidations, will be especially frequent. Being right on direction doesn’t mean you can endure the process; those heavily leveraged and stubborn often die before dawn. Light positions, stop losses, and keeping ammo are more important than anything🙏.
Outside the market, it’s not peaceful either. TSMC’s Q3 net profit hit a record high of 763.1 billion NTD, up 68.7% year-on-year, with AI computing power fundamentals truly strong, but gross margin dropped 1.3 points quarter-on-quarter, and early 2nm mass production still held it back. Netflix reports earnings on October 20, with market expectations of $12.878 billion revenue; the ad business is seen as the next growth engine, but whether the path from $3 billion to $7.5 billion can be realized depends on that report.
Tech stocks and crypto are now grasshoppers on the same rope. AI narratives support risk appetite, giving crypto some breathing room; if tech stocks collapse with macro, $BTC won’t escape either.
At this point, don’t chase shorts or rush to bottom-fish. 80,000 has been tested three times; breaking it means a real crash, not breaking it means a fake fall. Wait for stabilization signals—volume surge with bullish candles, clean chip rotation, and no further macro deterioration—then gradually buy in.
Don’t make decisions in panic.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Distinguishing strength and weakness during a pullback is more important than bottom fishing
Even though prices are falling, the quality is completely different.
Most people focus on the candlestick chart asking "Where is the bottom?" I care more about—who is holding firm, and who can no longer hold on.
$BTC: Fell about 3.5% in 24 hours, about 4% in the past week, but looking over a month, the drop is actually only about 2%. Compared to other coins, $BTC is still holding up, but calling it "turning strong"? Not quite. The 80,000 level needs no overthinking—round number levels never spontaneously develop support. During the CPI shock, transaction volume expanded 5 times within 30 minutes, and the support near 83,000 didn’t hold, indicating huge disagreement between bulls and bears at this level. Next, it depends on whether 80,000 can hold and gradually recover. If it holds but can’t recover steadily, downward revision expectations must follow; if it can stabilize and climb higher, then that’s a turnaround. A smaller drop is not a reason to add positions, just an observation window.
$ETH: Under more pressure. Fell about 5.6% in 24 hours, once cumulatively down over 6% after CPI release, and the monthly chart is also weakening. Less gain before? Doesn’t mean safe; weakness can persist. Short-term double support around 2,350 (horizontal line + ascending trendline), which has repeatedly held since August 23, showing real buying defense. But conversely, if this combined support breaks, the downside space opens. Don’t get excited about rebounds yet; the key is whether it can continuously reclaim lost ground—if it bounces a little then retreats, it’s still weak. On Binance, $ETH had over $157 million liquidated in 24 hours, longs got wiped out badly.
$SOL: Fell about 4.4% in one day, nearly 7% in a week. It has dropped to the 100-101 range, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages pressing above 103, showing clear short-term weakness. Don’t assume the $100 round number will definitely hold as support. More noteworthy is that within 4 hours after CPI release, $SOL open interest increased by 7.95%—leverage is still increasing during the decline, and once this structure breaks, deleveraging stampede will be rapid. Wait for it to show its stance: whether it can hold and then attack upward, or pause and continue downward, these are two completely different scenarios.
The macro environment isn’t favorable either.
CPI year-over-year at 3.7% exceeded expectations, PPI month-over-month surged to 1.3%, year-over-year 6.3%, the largest increase since March 2022. Energy prices are the main driver and have already transmitted to other goods and services. The probability of rate hikes before year-end approaches 90%. Meanwhile, $BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $859 million over the past six trading days, indicating institutional buying is shrinking short-term.
But here is a notable divergence signal—$BTC ETF still has a net inflow of about $2.09 billion over the past 30 days, while $ETH has a net outflow of about $319 million, and $SOL about $33.2 million net outflow. Institutions are not fully retreating; money is concentrating into $BTC, while altcoins are being drained. Another on-chain anomaly: ETFs are flowing out, but the total Bitcoin holdings of whales have risen to 3.03 million $BTC, the fastest monthly increase since February.
At this point, distinguishing strength and weakness is far more important than guessing the bottom.
Don’t rush to catch the weak, and don’t blindly chase the strong. Wait for the market to send its own signals.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SOL has been grinding around 105 for the past few weeks. On the surface, we see ETFs withdrawing funds, but behind the scenes, a bigger event is lining up to launch.
On October 7, Samsung announced that Samsung Wallet will integrate USDC on Solana for cross-border remittances, opening in the U.S. in the last week of October, initially covering 82 million Galaxy phones. The feature is built into the wallet, with currency exchange and transfers all embedded; the blockchain runs in the background, and users won’t even feel like they’re using a blockchain.
The significance lies in the entry point. Previously, stablecoins on the chain mostly circulated between exchanges and DeFi. This time, an ordinary phone user can just tap to send money, and the funds will make a round trip on Solana. According to the foundation, stablecoin transactions on this chain have already exceeded $5.25 trillion this year, with PayPal and Western Union also operating on it.
Meanwhile, the U.S. SOL spot ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days from October 5 to 15, totaling about $37.8 million. Institutional money is retreating, but the user-side pipeline is being laid out.
The price currently only reflects the first half. Even if only a small portion of those 82 million phones actually start using it, on-chain transfers and fees will move first, and the coin price usually follows with a lag.
After launch, watch whether the daily number of USDC transfers on the Solana chain rises—that will be the first signal that this news has materialized.Samsung Electronics (005930.KRX) plummeted 9.48% on October 15, experiencing a sharp single-day pullback, with the Korean semiconductor sector weakening across the board.
This decline is not due to a company-specific crisis but rather macroeconomic sentiment shocks: US CPI exceeded expectations, the market repriced Federal Reserve rate hikes, and global funds withdrew from AI technology and semiconductor sectors, dragging down SK Hynix and Samsung simultaneously.
A simple breakdown of Samsung Electronics:
The business is divided into two main parts: consumer electronics (phones, foldable screens, TVs) + semiconductors (memory, foundry, HBM).
Memory chips are a typical cyclical industry, with stock prices fluctuating in line with chip price cycles; HBM is the future growth driver, serving AI computing power demands. The mining difficulty adjustment of $BTC Bitcoin is essentially an automatic calibration mechanism to stabilize the network. Every time 2016 blocks are mined, a recalculation is triggered, aiming to firmly fix the average block time across the entire network at 10 minutes.
In the previous market cycle, miners directly experienced the largest scale of capitulation since 2021. At the beginning of the year, the total network hash rate was still above 1000 EH/s, but by June it dropped directly to 918 EH/s, evaporating 12% in just one month. The difficulty has been adjusted downward three consecutive times, cumulatively falling more than 20% from the historical peak. At that time, everyone was waiting for the new adjustment on July 11; if it dropped again, it would be the first time since July 2022.
The fundamental reason is that mining companies cannot bear the costs. JPMorgan calculated that the average mining cost for listed mining companies reached $78,000 per coin, while Bitcoin was only fluctuating around $62,000 at that time. For five consecutive months, the price was below the cost line. The hash price directly fell to a historic low of $29/PH/s/day, which means spending $100 on electricity would only mine coins worth $70. Twenty percent of miners shut down directly, and the rest had to endure by selling the coins they held. Six leading listed mining companies sold 32,000 BTC in a single quarter to cover operating expenses.
This mechanism is like an automatic thermostat. When hash power floods in, it raises the difficulty to slow down block production; when hash power leaves, it lowers the difficulty to make it easier for the remaining miners to produce blocks. Even if half the hash power suddenly withdraws, the network will not collapse and will always maintain a stable block production rhythm. Bitcoin got hit by data again last night. PPI year-over-year was 6.3%, much higher than expected, and as soon as it came out, it plunged directly to 79,800, blowing up over 900 million dollars worth of positions, mostly longs. Then it quickly broke below 80,000 but was pulled back above 82,000. The range from 80,000 to 81,500 is exactly the cost zone for the US spot ETF holdings; this dip was caught, indicating someone is defending it. It hasn't yet stabilized above 82,500, so if it can't break through, it will remain range-bound.
More important than the price is the MSCI news from last night. They set the rules for "non-operating companies": looking at operating assets plus five financial indicators, if four out of five fail, the company may be kicked out of the global index. Strategy is basically targeted by this, Metaplanet is also on the list, and coin-holding companies like SharpLink and Solana Company have been put on the watchlist. The list will be released on November 11, and will take effect after market close on the 30th.
Don't panic yet. Mature component stocks need to fail two consecutive annual reports to be removed, so Strategy won't be kicked out next month. JPMorgan previously estimated passive sell-off around 2.8 billion dollars; Strategy itself said that funds tracking MSCI hold about 13 million shares total, accounting for 3.1% of total shares, less than one day’s trading volume.
The trouble is ahead. Strategy has been the most stable buyer of Bitcoin in recent years by issuing shares and bonds to buy coins. Once its index status is in jeopardy, financing costs will rise, and whether this buying will slow down is what we need to watch next for $BTC $xMSTR Bitcoin fell below 80,000, yet ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million
These days, I have become more cautious about Bitcoin in the short term because the market is showing a warning signal.
US Treasury yields have clearly fallen, the dollar has weakened, and gold has risen—according to old logic, all these should be bullish for Bitcoin, but it still once dropped near 80,000 USD. More importantly, on October 14, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net outflow of $261 million.
So I began to suspect: the market might not be trading on liquidity easing, but on risk itself. There are two reasons for yield declines: one is anticipation of rate cuts and funds preparing to return to risk assets; the other is investors getting scared and buying Treasuries for safety. If it’s the latter, the yield drop won’t save Bitcoin.
I will watch three things next: whether it can hold above 83,000; whether ETFs can continuously return to net inflows; and when yields continue to fall, whether Bitcoin rebounds or weakens further. If the macro environment improves but there is no buying, I will remain cautious; but if the next round of negative news hits and Bitcoin doesn’t fall further and funds keep flowing back, I will revise my view.
The real bottom is not when everyone thinks it’s cheap, but when bad news can no longer scare away the last batch of holders. My money can wait; the market has no obligation to rise according to my beliefs. $BTC$BLUR short position floating profit 28%, brothers going long, how are you all doing?
Brothers, I entered the BLUR short at 0.01166, current price 0.01057, floating profit 28.04%, the direction was spot on. Brothers going long, how are you all doing?
On-chain signals are getting denser. Upbit has already put BLUR on the trading warning list, suspended deposits and withdrawals, with the review period until the end of October; the next step is most likely delisting. Market maker Wintermute also transferred about 2.6 million USD worth of BLUR to exchanges, openly selling. Earlier, 19 new wallets withdrew nearly 50 million BLUR from Coinbase Prime.
Platform data can't hold up either. Blur protocol TVL dropped from 215.9 million in March 2024 to 22.63 million now, shrinking nearly 90%. In Q3 2026, fees collected were only $0.51, with zero revenue in the past 30 days.
On the chart, 380,000 sell orders are pressing at 0.01059 above, while support below is clearly insufficient. The long-short ratio is 77% to 23%, retail investors are still stubbornly holding long, but the chart says it all.
I continue holding the short entered at 0.01166, with a stop loss above 0.0125; below, first watch 0.010, breaking that means 0.009. The rest is up to time.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Market consensus expectation: revenue of 12.87–13 billion USD, EPS of 0.84 USD
Netflix's own Q2 guidance for Q3: revenue of 12.86 billion, EPS of 0.82 USD, operating margin 33.2%
Key point: The company's own guidance is already below Wall Street's consensus, effectively an early "lowering of expectations." In this earnings environment, "exceeding company guidance" is relatively easy; significantly exceeding Wall Street consensus is more difficult.$SKHYNIX semiconductor has basically bottomed after a few days of decline. Worried about getting stuck when bottom-fishing contracts? Try Martingale?
The most suitable strategy now should be Martingale. Already arbitraged 3 rounds today.
$BTC $ETH Wash's speech seems useless, BTC and ETH have been moving sideways without any movement. Not sure where they will go, waiting for direction confirmation. Based on previous patterns, most likely a drop today, recovery on Sunday, then a rally.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix growth is slowing down, can advertising become a new highlight? I think it's a bit difficult.
#Latest single-day net inflow for US spot ETFs is $172 million — this is the first positive turn in this round of adjustment. But on the same day, BTC fell below 82,000. Who is buying, who is selling? First, the news. Two numbers moving in opposite directions: on the capital side, the ETF's latest single-day net inflow is $172 million (previously negative for several consecutive days), with a 5-day net outflow of $506.3 million and a 10-day net outflow of $333 million; on the price side, BTC is at $81,571.4, falling below 82,000, with the 20-day range lower bound at 80,400. On the sentiment side, the Fear & Greed Index dropped from 62 to 53; on the macro side, the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, gold dropped 0.34%, and the US dollar index declined 0.46%. Next, the impact on capital. The forces on the buying and selling sides can be analyzed separately: sellers are mainly leveraged accounts (stop losses triggered when price breaks key levels) and macro hedgers (reducing risk exposure after inflation exceeds expectations); buyers may come from passive ETF subscriptions and long-term holders buying on dips. When "allocation funds net buy" meets "trading funds net sell," the short-term price is determined by the latter — because leveraged selling is more concentrated and faster, while ETF subscriptions are slow and dispersed. Implications for BTC: a single-day positive capital flow is a necessary but insufficient signal. It indicates that at this price level, real money is willing to step in, but one positive day is not enough to change the trend. Historically, effective capital reversals usually meet at least two conditions: continuous net inflows over multiple days and prices no longer making new lows. Currently, only half of the first condition is met. I continueOn the night when the September PPI hit the largest increase in four years, nearly $1 billion in leverage was forcibly liquidated, with news reporting that nearly 60% of it was attributed to $ETH. The positions were indeed washed out: the ETH long-short ratio dropped from 2.60 to 1.96, and the 7-day open interest decreased by 6.0%; meanwhile, during the same period, $BTC open interest actually increased by 1.2% in one day.
But what was washed out was leverage; the potential selling pressure still remains on exchanges. ETH had a net outflow of 42,236 coins from exchanges on October 10-14 single days, yet the 7-day total still showed a net inflow of 132,803 coins, with exchange holdings up 0.86% over 7 days. The daily RSI at 29.5 has entered the oversold zone, but on-chain DEX trading volume over 7 days dropped by 16.9%, indicating the price drop did not translate into increased usage.
My ETH short position was stopped out during this back-and-forth with a -35.9% loss; the rebound after the liquidation will similarly trigger stop-outs.
Closing above the EMA50 at 2,496.15 on the daily chart indicates this round of deleveraging has ended; closing below the 30-day low at 2,315.26 means this liquidation is just the beginning.
Leverage has been cleaned out, but is the ETH piled up on exchanges waiting for buyers, or lining up to sell?
#ETH #ChipAnalysis #OnChainData
Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks yourself. $#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $AR Developing truly dynamic websites requires AO.
Arweave itself is a permanent storage layer; once data is written, it cannot be modified. Real-time GraphQL mainly addresses the data discovery problem (helping you see newly uploaded content faster), but it cannot provide mutable state and business logic.
The capabilities needed for dynamic websites are roughly as follows:
Functions mainly responsible for storing permanent content/static resources: Arweave
Fast discovery of new data: real-time GraphQL (HyperBEAM)
User login, posting, state changes, likes, business logic, and other writable operations: AO process with updatable application state AO
Therefore:
For content display only or semi-dynamic list refreshes, real-time GraphQL can help.
To achieve interactive, state-changing dynamic websites, the AO computation layer must be paired.
Currently, the complete dynamic website stack is: Arweave (storage) + real-time GraphQL (discovery) + AO (computation and state). AO is indispensable.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $FIL Geopolitical conflict risks intensify benefits for centralized storage
Related event verification
Bahrain / UAE AWS data centers
Around March 2026, during conflicts involving Iranian drone attacks, multiple availability zones in AWS Bahrain and one availability zone in UAE (mec1-az2) suffered physical damage. By September 2026, AWS officially confirmed that resources and data exclusively hosted in these zones could not be recovered, resulting in permanent customer data loss. The official statement indicated that the damage exceeded the tolerance of multi-AZ design. Customers were advised to migrate to other regions.
Saudi airport
In October 2026, Houthi forces attacked Riyadh International Airport and other targets, causing casualties and operational disruptions. This incident mainly targeted civilian critical infrastructure rather than data centers directly, but it also highlights the physical risks to facilities in the Middle East due to geopolitical conflicts.
These events demonstrate that even large cloud providers' multi-availability zone redundancy can fail in actual war/attack scenarios, especially when data exists only in the affected regions.
Impact on decentralized storage
Positive pull (narrative + some demand)
The core advantage of decentralized storage is the absence of a single physical point of failure:
data is distributed across numerous independent nodes worldwide, not relying on data centers in any single country.
If the model is permanent storage, it is especially suitable for "cannot lose" archives, public records, AI training data, dApp frontends, etc.
Distributed storage provider networks can also offer geographically dispersed redundancy.
When geopolitical risks rise, such events reinforce the perception of "physical vulnerabilities in centralized clouds," prompting some users and projects to consider:
The real pain point in the Bahrain incident was computing and low-latency services—banking apps, ride-hailing dispatch, food delivery platforms were paralyzed. These require millisecond-level response for online business, which decentralized storage (with minute-level retrieval, no SLA) architecture cannot handle. What it can handle is: cold data archiving, tertiary backups, public interest archives—this is the real boundary of "taking over part of the business."
Therefore, a more realistic approach is hybrid use: hot data still uses centralized cloud, while cold archiving, permanent records, and censorship-resistant content use decentralized storage. The rebound in the storage sector today, I'll first cover my short positions, not considering it a trend reversal.
PPI year-on-year 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, the data is quite harsh, but BTC pulled back from the 24-hour low of 79,775 to around 82,160, indicating that after the macro negative news came out, the selling pressure did not continue to spread.
It's even more obvious in storage. SK Hynix plummeted 11.06% yesterday, rebounded about 2.5% today, looks strong, but actually only recovered a small part of the previous day's decline. SNDK closed at 1,394.83 yesterday, after-hours fell back to around 1,371, not even truly holding above 1,400. Saying the fundamentals have reversed now, I think it's too early.
This looks more like shorts taking profits after continuous declines combined with bottom-fishing funds grabbing the rebound. A real reversal requires at least: SK Hynix holding above 1.3 million KRW, SNDK recovering above 1,400 with continued volume, BTC breaking through 82,643 instead of being pushed back again.
So I won't chase this move. The three lines can't strengthen simultaneously, the rebound looks more like a window for trapped positions to reduce holdings. The demand logic for storage hasn't broken, but the first thing the stock price kills is crowding and valuation; crowding release doesn't mean the rise has restarted.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 🔥 After BTC's wick down to 79,775, it V-reversed to 82,139, yet the greed index soared to 63! What exactly is this market playing at?
Last night, CPI exceeded expectations, triggering rate hike fears. BTC briefly fell below the 80,000 mark, but the fear and greed index surprisingly rose against the trend to 63, entering a "greedy state." The more it falls, the greedier it gets? Meanwhile, funds are quietly withdrawing: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $262 million in one day, totaling $151 million outflow this week.
On-chain signals are even more alarming: a certain whale sold a total of 1,601 BTC (about $132 million) within 5 days, fully rotating into 53,095 ETH at an average price of $2,497, a very clear directional move.
Key levels: 79,775 below is last night's wick low; below that is the psychological support at 78,000; above, 83,000 is the Bollinger middle band resistance.
Ordinary people are most conflicted right now: afraid to miss out after the V-reversal, but chasing risks getting trapped. But whales are rotating positions, institutions are withdrawing—are you sure you want to be the one left holding the bag? Did you make a move today? Let's talk about $BTC in the comments 👇#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ ZEC has finally rebounded! I'm waiting for the next opportunity to make a move!
It dropped sharply from 1695 all the way down to 1071.95—this drop was brutal! But my short position at 1405.55 is still open, with a steady unrealized profit of 149%.
I mentioned before that I hoped it would rebound first—a continuous slow decline makes it hard to find a good rolling position rhythm. Now that it has pulled up near 1186, I've already opened a new isolated short position!
Market outlook:
- Daily chart: Significant pullback from 1695, currently still in a retracement phase; it's too early to talk about a reversal.
- 15-minute chart: Rapid rise from 1071 to 1186, showing strong short-term momentum.
- Key levels: Resistance above at 1195 and whether it can hold above 1200; if it rallies but fails and falls back below 1160, the short-term weakness probability greatly increases.
- If volume pushes it above 1200, I will reassess.
Today ZEC surged to 1241 in a single day, making it the brightest among altcoins, but this rebound feels more like a leveraged short squeeze plus capital rotation—a false fire. Grayscale ZCSH ETF has seen continuous net outflows in October, with redemptions exceeding $93 million in the week of October 2, indicating insufficient on-exchange liquidity. The go/no-go decision on the NU7 upgrade on October 20 hangs over the market, with a 0.65 short-to-long ratio clearly favoring the bears.
Brothers, do you think this rebound can hold above 1200? Place your bets in the comments.
️ Personal review only, not trading advice.
BTC ETH $ZEC
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? 韩国股市盘中触发熔断、暴跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压——但真正值得盯住的，是今天同时出现的两个反向信号：10月加息概率再度回落，美债短端与长端收益率同步下行。当所有人盯着股指熔断时，债市已经先替市场投了票。📉 这轮回调的核心矛盾，从来不只是美股估值高、题材旧、需要新的盈利预期来接力，而是美股、美债与公司债之间对流动性的三方争夺。资金是有限的，谁先被抽走，谁就先崩。这一次，美股下跌反而把流动性推回了美债，缓和了此前美债承压的紧张局面。换句话说，股市的痛，暂时是债市的止痛药。 而$BTC 与黄金在这场流动性再分配中的位置截然不同。黄金直接挂钩利率，在加息概率回落、收益率下行的组合下整体保持稳定。即便出现短时流动性枯竭导致的急跌，央行购金需求仍构成强支撑，使其成为低风险博反弹的优选资产。这也解释了为何黄金在风险资产普跌时没有同步失血。 真正被低估的信号在今晚：PPI大概率延续昨日CPI的回落方向。即使数据意外低于预期，也只能带来一波小反弹，无法扭转当前的下行趋势。市场需要的是FOMC落地，以及美伊紧张局势降温，才可能逐步企稳。在那之前，耐心本身就是仓位。 一个可被反复引用的判断：股指熔断是The whale who built a position at the peak is about to liquidate, losing 13.45 million
In September 2025, ETH was still around $4600. Someone started building a position then, and it kept dropping while they kept adding.
They withdrew a total of 15,810 ETH, with an average price of $4101, investing $63.85 million.
Over the past year, they have been continuously depositing 15,361 ETH into exchanges, with an average deposit price of $3226. Now ETH is around $2300; if they sell everything, the loss is $13.45 million. Only 572 ETH remain on-chain.
They kept adding for a year, from 4600 down to 1900, then held from 1900 up to 2300. Every drop was met with more buying, every rebound gave hope of breaking even. In the end, they chose to exit far from breaking even.
It's not that they didn't want to wait, they just waited enough.
Discuss in the comments: what's the worst averaging down you've seen, and to what extent?
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH Brothers, out of 10 altcoins, 9 are shorted. When you see altcoins on the gainers list, they usually pump 30%, 40%, or even 80%, 90% in a day. At this time, it's all a bull trap.
My short on $AKE is a live example. Yesterday I saw it on the gainers list, it pumped 22% in 24 hours, but the sell orders were pressing down the buy orders, the price couldn't be pushed up. I shorted directly at 0.03151, today the mark price is 0.03065, floating profit +8.18%. The profit isn't big, but the direction was right — the pump is just giving you a shorting opportunity.
Why do I say altcoins on the gainers list are all bull traps? First, altcoins have no fundamental support; the pump relies entirely on capital pushing hard. The harder the pump, the more urgent the sell-off. Second, the order book shows the truth at the high point; no matter how many buy orders are placed, the price just can't hold, a typical case of wash trading to unload. Third, large unlocks and whale transfers to exchanges are all pre-set traps. For example, with AKE, 55% of circulating supply was transferred to Binance in the past 4 days, and 213 million tokens will unlock on October 21. The pump is just to distribute.
Don't chase the pump, don't believe in "takeoff." The faster altcoins pump on the gainers list, the harder they crash. Shorting at the top is the way to go, take a bite and run, don't get attached to the fight. Brothers, have you shorted this wave? Let's talk in the comments!
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ A daily volatility of 16%, ZEC bulls have eaten up all the ETF sell orders $ZEC I've been watching today's trend all day: starting at 1073, peaking at 1254, now at 1203, with a single-day volatility of 16%. A coin that was still drifting down the day before suddenly rallies like this.
The contradiction lies in the source of the money. The US ZEC spot ETF had a net outflow of 5.19 million yesterday, with a cumulative redemption of 30 million last week — compliant money is withdrawing. But there is a giant whale in the market who added to long positions 9 times today, holding 11,410 coins with 10x leverage, accumulating an unrealized profit of 16 million, buying more as the price rises.
On one hand, ETF redemptions; on the other, leveraged additions, with the coin price standing above 1200. It's clear who is winning on the market, but this kind of win is supported by 10x leverage, which doesn't feel secure to me.
The background is the NU7 upgrade: voted through on September 14, block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, halving retained, with 2.4 million ZEC involved. The narrative is real, and the money is truly crazy.
Last night, more long positions were liquidated than shorts, and there are still trapped positions hanging at previous highs. The gains piled up by leverage — do you feel uneasy holding positions overnight? #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Found another coin related to the RWA narrative: $INJ
So how does INJ fare in RWA? Can it be compared to $ENA and $PENDLE?
From what I understand, in the RWA (Real World Assets) sector, INJ, ENA, and Pendle represent three distinctly different approaches. Based on the current maturity of value capture and the scale of RWA business, Pendle and ENA are in leading positions, while INJ is more like a "fast-building infrastructure chaser."
INJ: The "Issuance and Settlement Layer" of RWA
INJ positions itself as an L1 designed specifically for finance, with a core focus on providing full lifecycle infrastructure for RWA from issuance to trading.
Its advantages lie in the intensity of institutional cooperation and compliance licenses. POSCO International and LG CNS chose INJ for trade receivables tokenization pilots, Pineapple Financial migrated a real estate mortgage portfolio exceeding $1 billion to INJ, and Thailand's GULF Group became an institutional validator staking about 500,000 INJ.
However, value capture is still in the early stages. INJ's RWA business is mostly pilot projects and partnership announcements, without yet forming scaled protocol revenue.
In terms of RWA business maturity and certainty of value capture: Pendle > ENA > INJ. #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？
Currently, the market shows a clear split in funds: ETF funds continue to flow out as institutions take short-term risk-off positions; meanwhile, on-chain whales keep accumulating at low levels, stocking up during dips. Bull and bear funds operate in opposite directions, making the 80,000 mark the main battleground.
My view: Fund divergence means increased volatility. ETFs represent short-term institutional trading; if large redemptions persist, the 80,000 support is easily challenged. Whales hold long-term spot positions, only supporting the bottom without actively pushing prices up, so they alone can’t drive the market higher.
Simply put: Whale support ≠ no breakdown. If ETFs keep flowing out, the defense at 80,000 will face intense pressure.
Contract strategy: 80,000 is a critical watershed. If it holds above 80,000 and ETFs flow back in, consider light long positions; if it breaks below 80,000 effectively, prioritize bearish strategies and avoid bottom-fishing. In volatile markets, strictly control position size and always use stop-loss orders to prevent being stopped out by spikes.$BTC exploded over 600 million in orders last night, and today the CPI was released — yet the funding rate dropped to a quarter of the base value.
Woke up to find BTC back at 81970, the lowest point last night at 79775 is almost fully recovered, the 729 million liquidated seems like it never happened.
What really stunned me was the funding rate. OKX's current funding rate is 0.0023%, less than a quarter of the 0.01% base rate. After the liquidation and price rebound, the bulls don't even want to pay the base rate — this isn't just emotional recovery, it's complete surrender.
Open Interest is still hanging at 2.48 billion USD, the money hasn't left, but no one is willing to step up.
The spot side is on a completely different rhythm: exchange reserves have dropped steadily to 2.67 million coins, Strategy only bought 250 coins this week, the smallest single week this year. Big buyers have stopped, chips are exiting.
Tonight is the CPI, September expectation is 3.7%. During this funding rate vacuum period before and after the data, are you waiting for a clear direction to enter, or do you only feel confident holding onto the 79,700 needle?BTC's $80K test matters because Bitfinex data places substantial large-holder buying in the $80K-$86K range, creating a visible area of potential support. But US spot ETF outflows of 3,209 BTC show that institutional flow is not yet aligned with that bid. With stronger CPI and PPI keeping rate expectations restrictive, support may hold, but conviction remains unproven.
#CanBTCHold80K $ETH Whales who started accumulating ETH at the $4600 peak are struggling to hold on 🥹
In September 2025, this whale began accumulating ETH around the $4600 peak, then kept averaging down as the price dropped, withdrawing a total of 15,810 ETH ($63.85 million) at an average price of $4,101.85.
From October 2025 to now, they have deposited a total of 15,361.1 ETH ($49.55 million) to exchanges — buying in at highs of $4,478 and lows of $1,910, with the most recent deposit just 5 hours ago.
The final average deposit price is $3,226.22.
💔 If they sell everything now, the expected loss is $13.45 million.
Averaging down from 4600 to 1910 over more than a year, they ultimately chose to exit at a loss. This is not a pain that can be brushed off with a simple "broaden your horizons."
Whales are human too, and they can't withstand a prolonged downtrend.Regarding the impact of CPI and PPI on crypto, I personally think the core is just one thing:
Inflation data → interest rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields → liquidity tightening → pressure on coin prices.
PPI is a leading indicator of CPI and has a more direct transmission to BTC, which I deeply understand. The latest data shows October CPI year-on-year at 3.7% and PPI year-on-year at 6.3%, both exceeding expectations. BTC dropped from 84,000 to around 81,000, with $932 million liquidated in 24 hours, long positions accounting for 91.8%. ETFs are also seeing net outflows.
I have always believed that BTC is not an inflation hedge but a liquidity hedge. History also proves this: in 2022, when CPI peaked at 8.5%, BTC fell 74%; when PPI broke 9%, BTC halved. Conversely, in September 2025, when PPI was below expectations, BTC directly broke through 114,000.
So my advice is, don’t just focus on the K-line, pay more attention to inflation data and US Treasury yields. What do you think? With this round of rising interest rate hike expectations, will BTC fall below 80,000 or rebound? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Last night's PPI again exceeded expectations across the board: year-on-year 6.3%, expected only 5.3%, the highest since May 2026; monthly rate 1.3%, core year-on-year also rose to 5%. This is the second consecutive hotter-than-expected inflation reading, with energy still the main driver.
According to the usual script, such data would push US Treasury yields higher. This time, it went the opposite way—10-year yields dropped 13.6 basis points, 30-year yields fell 14.1.
What’s really being accounted for is AI’s path of borrowing to expand. CoreWeave’s five-year credit default swap cost surged intraday to 1194.5 basis points, a historical high, implying a default probability over 60% in the next five years; its bonds maturing in 2031 saw yields rise to 15.6% to 16.2%. On the same day, similar costs for Oracle and SoftBank also widened, indicating it’s not an isolated case.
At US market open, storage, optical communications, and semiconductors—the computing power chain—opened lower together. Crypto was also liquidated in a round: $930 million liquidated in 24 hours, 175,000 people forcibly closed out.
Those driving sports cars are most sensitive to costs; the oil is theirs, but the cut isn’t theirs to set. The more money borrowed, the more the market asks—how will this debt be repaid? What’s your take over there?
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. "CPI Turns Sour at Night, Market No Longer Calm"
Originally thought it was just a short-term shakeout, with the data causing a brief shock before settling down. Unexpectedly, the market flipped directly 😱. $BTC and $ETH both plunged simultaneously, the waterfall decline unstoppable, with macro expectations becoming the sole director.
Many previously believed: after one round of decline, the negative news should have been digested. But the hammer of inflation exceeding expectations was clearly not priced in advance. The core contradiction lies in the Fed's subsequent path suddenly becoming unclear; whether to press the rate hike button again in October has become the new round of contention.
If inflation doesn't drop, US Treasury yields surge, the dollar strengthens, risk assets collectively get hit, and crypto naturally cannot remain unscathed. If continued rate hikes are confirmed, BTC dipping to 70,000 is not a small probability, and ETH testing below 2,000 USD must also be accepted. Some traders have already shorted on the rebound, trying to hold onto this downtrend.
But macro-driven sell-offs, spikes, and chain liquidations will be especially frequent 💥. Even if the direction is right, don't hold heavy positions stubbornly; light positions, stop losses, and leaving room are the only ways to survive violent shakeouts 🙏.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 After last night's CPI release, bitcoin:native and the US stock market fell in sync. Even $INTC, which I often trade, broke below the 100 mark.
Last night, the Nasdaq's decline was significantly greater than the Dow's, especially in AI, semiconductors, and high-valuation tech stocks. This is because the valuations of high-valuation tech stocks rely on long-term future earnings growth. When interest rates rise, the discounted value of future cash flows decreases, so high-valuation assets naturally bear the brunt first, resulting in a large drop.
What we need to watch now is whether US Treasury yields can fall back, and whether the Nasdaq and semiconductors can stop falling. Many people are optimistic about the long-term rise of the US stock market, which I do not deny, but whether you can withstand the market's selling pressure in the short term is uncertain.
If US Treasury yields continue to rise in the short term and tech stocks continue to break down, this correction will last longer.
The decline of bitcoin:native was already expected; CPI was just the catalyst that accelerated the market's drop. Although there is buying interest around the 80k level, it is not like the quick rebound after the last drop. Instead, the rebound is caused by short sellers taking profits after the decline. In other words, I personally think this is just a downward consolidation! There will be repeated battles between 80-83k before continuing to fall, with the current drop position near 77k at least.$ETH $BTC short-term forecast shows highly unified bullish expectations, with the market basically ruling out the scenario of ETH sharply breaking below 2200.
All odds at every level are extremely low, offering no speculative gains in the long direction.
In an environment with highly consistent bullish sentiment, caution is needed for sudden spike pullback risks; once the price breaks below 2300, it will have a significant impact on this forecast scenario. $ETH $BTC short-term forecast shows highly unified bullish expectations, with the market basically ruling out the scenario of ETH sharply breaking below 2200.
All odds at every level are extremely low, offering no speculative gains in the long direction.
In an environment with highly consistent bullish sentiment, caution is needed for sudden spike pullback risks; once the price breaks below 2300, it will have a significant impact on this forecast scenario.