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On September 1st during the US stock market session, the semiconductor and memory sectors collectively weakened, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 3%, and Intel falling nearly 4%—this scale of decline deserves a closer look.
Specific figures: Micron fell 2.53%, SanDisk fell 2.26%, Seagate fell 3.06%, Western Digital fell 1.94%, SK Hynix ADR fell 2.41%, Nvidia fell 3.25%, Intel fell 3.88%, and AMD fell 3.48%. Both memory chips (Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital) and logic chips (Nvidia, Intel, AMD) declined simultaneously, indicating that this is not an issue isolated to a single segment but that the entire semiconductor supply chain faced collective pressure on the same day.
These companies correspond to different links in AI computing power—Nvidia is the core of computing power, Micron and SanDisk correspond to storage demand, and SK Hynix is a key supplier of HBM high-bandwidth memory. If only Nvidia had fallen, it could be attributed to individual stock sentiment; however, the simultaneous weakening of both memory and logic chips suggests the market is repricing the entire "AI hardware industry chain" rather than questioning the fundamentals of any single company. **Bitcoin ETF capital flows are showing signs of cooling down.** On August 28, US Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $201.8 million, ending a streak of 9 consecutive sessions of inflows totaling over $3 billion. Weekly capital flows also dropped 51.8%, down to $924.5 million. This is not yet a signal that institutions are abandoning Bitcoin, but if the trend continues, weakening spot demand could make it difficult for $BTC to absorb selling pressure around the $80,000 level. Investors should monitor ETF flows along with liquidity and price structure.The August US ISM Manufacturing PMI is 54.6, lower than the expected 55.2 and last month's 55.6. The value remains above the 50 expansion-contraction line, indicating the economy is still expanding, but the growth momentum has weakened.
For the Federal Reserve, the data being slightly worse reduces the motivation for rate hikes, but the economy hasn't weakened enough to prompt immediate rate cuts, so monetary policy will likely remain on hold in the short term.
From the crypto perspective: $BTC $ETH $SOL
With data below expectations, there will initially be a slight bullish lift for BTC and ETH; however, since the economy is not in clear recession, the bullish impact is limited. After the initial surge, it will be difficult to sustain a strong one-sided rally, and a pullback followed by consolidation is more probable.
Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility will increase temporarily, altcoins will briefly rebound with the market, but lacking sustained positive catalysts, it will be hard to see a prolonged major rally. Overall, this will be a short-term sentiment-driven move, followed by a return to range-bound trading.
This is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Long positions crashed from an extreme 36x leverage down to 1.6x, with the short squeeze barely holding on, and the closing session basically directionless.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $61,100 $59,400 $1,637.30
4 hours $110,100 $91,700 $18,400
12 hours $242,900 $186,300 $56,600
24 hours $316,900 $194,900 $122,000
From the SUI liquidation data, in the 1-hour window longs dominated shorts with an extreme 36x leverage, starting the short squeeze with nuclear-level intensity, breaking $60,000 in volume; in 4 hours, the long advantage narrowed to 5x, volume rose to $110,000; in 12 hours, the long advantage further dropped to 3.3x, volume rose to $240,000; in 24 hours, the long advantage sharply fell to 1.6x at close, with long liquidations at $194,900 versus shorts at $122,000, totaling $316,900 in liquidations. The long leverage ratio declined from 36x → 5x → 3.3x → 1.6x, showing a continuous exhaustion trajectory, and the short squeeze momentum collapsed. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 76.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating a very high concentration—most liquidations were completed in the first 12 hours, with almost no increase near the close, and shorts sneaking back in the final period. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, and when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish stance is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the Data "Blade"?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an increase of 80,000. July's nonfarm unexpectedly dropped by 23,000, the worst this year.
Just last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, reaffirming the 2% inflation target as "firm and fixed," stating that if core inflation does not "clearly and quickly" decline, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Linkage Strengthens, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is the "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. Among them, SPDR Gold ETF net inflow was nearly $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, after Wash's speech, rising rate hike expectations have short-term suppressive effects on both assets.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Tests
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year; AI semiconductor revenue target is $16 billion, up over 200% year-over-year, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has repeatedly reaffirmed its AI semiconductor revenue target of $56 billion for fiscal 2026 and over $100 billion for fiscal 2027.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion in AI servers in Q1, with management guiding about 75% growth in the infrastructure segment for Q2, including approximately $15.5 billion in AI server revenue. But margin pressure is notable—the infrastructure segment operating margin has dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week—the market awaits the final answer on September 4. Meanwhile, SUI's liquidation data reveals a typical path of leverage retreat before major events: starting at 36x, cutting down each period, leaving only 1.6x at the close, basically directionless. The extremely high 76.7% concentration indicates that what needed to be cleared was cleared early, and the rest are veterans cutting each other. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Bitcoin ETFs Are Buying Again. But Price Still Isn’t Moving.
One thing on my radar right now is the growing disconnect between institutional demand and Bitcoin’s price action.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $216.7M in net inflows on Monday, reversing the previous session’s $201.8M outflow.
Yet Bitcoin is still struggling below $80K.
That tells us something.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $80K resistance
🔵 $ETH — watching institutional strength
🟣 $SOL — tracking liquidity rotation
🟢 $XRP — watching relative performance
The ETF numbers look constructive.
But price is not confirming them yet.
Bitcoin pushed toward $79K again but failed to reclaim the $80K area.
That means sellers are still active around the same resistance zone.
At the same time, institutional demand is returning.
BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for most of Monday’s Bitcoin ETF inflows, showing that large investors are still adding exposure despite the recent weakness.
So why is price not moving?
The answer may be liquidity.
U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield around 4.8%.
Oil is also trading near multi-month highs as geopolitical tensions increase inflation concerns.
That creates pressure on risk assets.
In other words, buyers are entering the market while macro conditions are making it harder for price to expand.
This is why the next move matters more than the current ETF headline.
If Bitcoin can hold $77K and finally reclaim $80K with stronger volume, the recent resistance could turn into support.
A move above $81K would provide an even stronger confirmation that buyers are back in control.
But if $77K fails while ETF demand starts weakening again, the market could be facing another deeper reset.
The broader market is giving us another signal.
$ETH continues to attract institutional attention, while $SOL and $XRP are showing different levels of relative strength.
That makes capital rotation worth watching.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Brothers, good evening. I reviewed today's market again, and combined with the news on September 1st, I want to be straightforward with you all—today's market is not a shakeout, but macroeconomic pressure like three knives at the neck, short-term bearish, so brothers, don't stubbornly catch the flying knives. First, let's talk about the news pressuring the market today: 1. The Fed's September rate hike expectation has surged to 66%, as shown by CME FedWatch. After the hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the market is now pricing in a 25 basis point hike on September 16th. The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 4.78%, money is getting more expensive, and zero-yield risk assets like BTC are the first to be hit. 2. The September unlocking wave started with a bang today: SUI unlocked 13.53 million tokens today, ENA will unlock 40.63 million tomorrow, and HYPE will unlock 9.92 million on September 6th (nearly $800 million). Every week there is hundreds of millions in selling pressure; it's no surprise institutions are selling. 3. DeFi had another incident over the weekend: the Tectonic protocol on the Cronos chain was hacked for about $75 million. There were 16 hacker incidents in August alone, which has maxed out risk-off sentiment, and leveraged longs are being liquidated first. So today BTC is stuck around 78,000 in Europe and the US, down about 1% in 24 hours; ETH is grinding between 2440-2480; SOL is pulling back to 102-104. Overall, it's "wanting to bounce but afraid to push hard." But brothers, note that spot ETFs had a net inflow of $27.91 million yesterday, and Strategy bought another $460 million in BTC, so this is a correction, not a crash. 78,000 is a lifeline.September's Rhythm
The three major themes in September are U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve meeting, and the midterm elections; the market dynamics revolve around these three:
· Midterm Elections: As mentioned before, Iran is taking advantage of the situation to escalate the conflict, which indeed happened, pushing oil prices back to $90. The current decline in U.S. stocks and gold stems from oil prices; inflation expectations drive rate hike expectations, suppressing all assets. The problem is that Trump still can't TACO because he didn't start this issue; now only Basent is loudly calling for sanctions, but Iran is not afraid at all.
· Federal Reserve Meeting: The key focus is on the nonfarm payrolls and CPI, which are likely to soften, creating a pattern of a "hard dip" before the data and a "rebound" after. If this holds true, rate hikes are unlikely in September, and U.S. stocks may rebound.
· U.S. Treasury Bonds: They are moving toward what I predicted as the "final drop," with the 10-year yield possibly reaching 5%. The underlying reason is Basent's "trading mindset" backfiring; the correct approach is to strictly adhere to fiscal discipline.
In summary, before the nonfarm payrolls and CPI data, U.S. stocks, A-shares, gold, and Bitcoin generally fall; after the data release, they rebound but do not reverse.
U.S. Stocks: The AI industry fundamentals and earnings reports are in a vacuum period, lacking upward catalysts. The Nasdaq at 26,000 is a key support to watch; if a major negative surprise occurs (CPI exceeding expectations), the downside could reach 25,000.
Gold: After breaking below 4,400 tonight and then recovering, 4,400 will be tested again. If it breaks below again, I will slowly monitor the 4,300–4,400 range.
A-shares: This week, attempts to break 4,000 failed consecutively; the ChiNext Index is firmly suppressed by short-term moving averages. With overseas tech weakening, domestic tech rebounds still need to wait. Fortunately, some tech sectors are not highly valued; you can review previous content.
Bitcoin: Continues to oscillate around 78,000, with sufficient turnover being a good sign, building momentum for the next push toward 83,000.
Overall, in September, everyone should focus on defense. Major asset classes are in a state of indecision. Beware of black swan events triggered by bad U.S. data. Options can be allocated appropriately for hedging. If the Labor Statistics Bureau chief performs well and data softens as expected, the market will have some rebound opportunities.
The U.S. Treasury bond issue is escalating, adding long-term logic to gold, but in the short term, oil prices suppress gold prices, so wait for a good entry price.
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. The sudden surge in the probability of a September rate hike has become the core macro factor currently suppressing the crypto market.
📈 Why has the rate hike probability suddenly surged?
The rate hike expectation sharply reversed upward within just one week, mainly due to the hawkish speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. He bluntly stated that inflation is "still too high" and abandoned forward guidance, completely overturning the market's previous easing expectations.
· Probability surge: The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has surged to 66.4%, up from about 35% a week ago.
· Core reasons: The US July PCE annual growth rate is 3.7%, core PCE 3.3%, far above the 2% target; coupled with rising oil prices due to geopolitical factors, inflationary pressure continues to increase.
💥 Direct impact on the crypto market: comprehensive pressure
As the asset most sensitive to liquidity, cryptocurrencies are the first to be hit:
· Price decline across the board: Bitcoin once fell below $76,000, currently oscillating between $77,000 and $78,000; Ethereum dropped to around $2,440; major coins like Solana, XRP, and BNB generally fell 1%-2%.
· ETF fund reversal: The Bitcoin spot ETF, which had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, turned to a net outflow of $202 million for the first time after the rate hike expectations heated up.
· Derivatives liquidation: The market's sharp directional shift caused massive forced liquidations of leveraged long positions. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount of long crypto contracts across the network exceeded $360 million.
⚔️ Market tug-of-war: macro bears vs institutional bulls
Despite macro pressure, the market has not collapsed and shows intense tug-of-war:
· Bear logic: Rate hikes will tighten liquidity and push up US Treasury yields (which have surged to 4.78%), reducing the appeal of interest-free assets like Bitcoin.
· Bull confidence: Institutions are buying on dips. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows still reached $924 million; Strategy firms bought Bitcoin at an average price of $80,318; Ethereum ETFs also had net inflows for 11 consecutive days.
🔮 Key upcoming milestones
Short-term trends will depend on several key data points:
1. September 4 (August nonfarm payroll report): If employment exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, and the market may further decline.
2. September 11 (August CPI data): Inflation data will directly affect the decision at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
3. September 15-16 (FOMC meeting): The final decision will be decisive.
Technically, $80,000-$86,000 is a strong short-term resistance zone for Bitcoin, with key support below at the $76,000-$77,000 range.
Overall, the warming of September rate hike expectations has brought clear short-term headwinds to the crypto market, making high volatility unavoidable. However, institutional fund support also indicates that a simple rate hike is no longer the sole factor determining Bitcoin's trend.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Probability of a rate hike in September rises, analysis of impact on the crypto space
Current rate hike expectations have risen to 67%. This is not an actual rate hike yet, but pricing at the expectation level. The bearish impact is gradual, not a one-time crash.
Transmission logic
1. Opportunity cost rises
BTC and ETH are zero-coupon risk assets. As U.S. Treasury yields rise, institutional funds will prioritize risk-free U.S. Treasuries, suppressing incremental ETF buying. Sustained large inflows at high levels are unlikely.
2. Risk appetite contracts
The crypto market increasingly correlates with the Nasdaq. With stronger rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar, global risk assets face unified pressure. Funds will proactively reduce risk exposure, with altcoins being sold off first.
3. Contract leverage under pressure
Market borrowing costs rise, making high-leverage positions fragile. The market is prone to flash crashes and cascading liquidations, amplifying volatility, but spot markets may not see large-scale sell-offs.
Impact intensity by scenario
Scenario 1: Only the probability of a rate hike rises, but the rate remains unchanged in September (bearish expectation realized)
• Impact: Some panic has already been priced in earlier, bearish pressure is exhausted, the crypto space has a chance to lift suppression, and BTC may retest the 80,000 resistance level;
• Characteristics: U.S. Treasury yields fall back, ETF funds return, altcoins see repair rebounds.
Scenario 2: A 25bp rate hike is actually implemented in September, and Walsh continues hawkish statements (substantive bearish)
1) BTC:
Short-term noticeable pullback, key support tested in the 74,000–76,000 range; with ETF and MSTR corporate buying support, a direct one-sided crash is unlikely, but a breakout above 80,000 will be delayed, entering a prolonged wide-range consolidation.
2) ETH: High beta, more damage than BTC
The pullback will significantly underperform BTC, 2,400 support is easily broken, and 2,500 resistance is hard to surpass in the short term.
3) Altcoins: Most impacted
Most small and mid-cap coins will fall far more than major coins, with funds quickly flowing back to BTC for safety; only a few independent narrative coins can resist the trend.
Current market reality (based on your screenshot candlestick)
The rising rate hike probability is already reflected in the market:
BTC is stuck in a 77,400–79,000 range, upward attempts are weak, but every dip finds support. This indicates bearish expectations exist, but spot markets show no panic selling, with more contract funds playing back and forth.
Key distinction: expectation VS implementation
• Rising rate hike probability (current stage): suppresses upward momentum, intensifies volatility, hard to form large bullish candles, declines find support.
• Official rate hike announcement: the real bearish shock, amplifies pullback magnitude.
Summary
1. Rising rate hike expectations won’t directly crash the crypto market but will lock in the inability to rally strongly; rallies face selling pressure, and volatility will continue to increase.
2. BTC has stronger risk resistance due to institutional spot base; ETH and altcoins suffer more damage.
3. The biggest variable is the nonfarm payroll data. If nonfarm weakens significantly, rate hike probability will quickly fall, easing macro pressure; if nonfarm is strong, rate hike expectations will surge further, significantly increasing pullback risk.
Key levels to watch: BTC support at 77,400, resistance at 79,000; ETH support at 2,420, resistance at 2,455.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $SNDK
SanDisk's recent surge is driven primarily by the dual factors of the AI storage boom and continuous flash memory price increases. AI inference servers have caused a massive surge in demand for large-capacity flash memory, with major cloud providers competing for production capacity. NAND chip contract prices have steadily risen, with over half of the company's profit growth coming from product price hikes, pushing gross margins to very high levels. Financial reports have consistently exceeded market expectations. Additionally, the company signed a long-term supply agreement worth hundreds of billions with a major client and announced large-scale buybacks and plans to return excess cash flow to shareholders. Institutional investors are willing to assign higher valuations, and whenever there is a pullback, funds step in to buy, occasionally triggering rapid short-squeeze rallies.
In the short term, as long as spot and contract prices for flash memory maintain an upward trend, the stock price is likely to repeatedly strengthen. $1500 is a key support level, with the upside target range between $1600 and $1800. When sector sentiment is strong, the stock can exhibit explosive momentum. However, it is a typical cyclical growth stock, and the price has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations, resulting in particularly high volatility and frequent rapid pullbacks after big gains.
The medium-term outlook hinges on two key points: first, whether actual procurement by AI data centers can continue to materialize; second, the pace of new capacity releases. If supply increases in the future, the chip price rally will cool down, putting pressure on profits and stock price. The storage sector tends to move in tandem, with Micron and Kioxia's market performance directly influencing SanDisk's trend.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 In late August, ETH experienced a rare strong rally for the year. From August 19 to 21, ETH rose from about $1916 to an intraday price of $2546, a significant increase surpassing BTC over the same period. Afterwards, the price did not quickly retreat but consolidated near the $2500 level, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded significantly from the mid-year low. This rally was first ignited by improved risk appetite and short squeezes, but the real discussion in this article is the supply and demand changes behind the rally: the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a weekly net inflow of nearly $700 million, about 42 million ETH staked, exchange balances dropped about 15% compared to early June, and corporate treasuries continue to increase holdings. Several forces are combining, compressing the amount of ETH available for immediate sale. Based on this, author Itai Smidt suggests that ETH's circulating supply has tightened significantly compared to June, and new funds entering thinner markets may generate greater price elasticity. However, a decrease in supply does not necessarily mean a price increase; this round also includes a large amount of short covering and leveraged funds, so the sustainability of ETF inflows has yet to be fully verified. Therefore, what the market needs to confirm next is not only whether ETH can break through $2550, but also whether institutional funds can continue to flow in, whether ETH/BTC can hold onto the rebound gains, and whether staking and corporate holdings continue to absorb new supply. These variables will determine whether this rally is a quick short squeeze or an ETThe pinned macro framework for this week mentions two verification logics for this week's macro data:
1. Whether employment can weaken Walsh's current hawkish rate hike view
2. ISM data verifies whether changes in the labor market come from the supply side or demand side, while also showing some economic resilience
Tonight's July job openings and ISM manufacturing PMI are considered the first wave of data this week
July job openings show 7.271 million, higher than the previous value but weaker than expected, considered moderate data, which means that corporate demand for employment has not collapsed and still maintains certain demand resilience, so this data cannot weaken the probability of a rate hike in September
August ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 54.6, still in growth, but overall weaker than the previous value and expectations, manufacturing is clearly cooling down, but still far from recession expectations
Among the three major sub-items of the futures ISM data, new orders declined, employment weakened, and prices paid remained unchanged and higher than expected. Although this set is not enough for stagflation expectations, there are already slight signs of stagflation, especially the weakening employment, which means demand side weakening, unfavorable for Friday's expectations
Especially if Thursday's ISM services PMI is consistent with manufacturing data, then short-term slight stagflation expectations will significantly increase #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Overall, tonight's data has little impact on the market, considered neutral data, and the probability of a September rate hike remains unchanged. The 2-year US Treasury yield slightly weakened. The data itself gives the market a brief respite, but faced with the current high oil prices, this effect is obviously not obvious FalconX announced a $1 billion secured lending facility with Ethena through an SPV, investing USDe reserve assets into over-collateralized institutional credit; FalconX acts as initiator, service provider, and collateral manager, with collateral held by qualified third parties. I. Conclusion First, this transaction upgrades USDe's revenue sources from a single funding rate carry to four combinations: pledge yield, funding rate, Treasury assets, and institutional secured credit. The $1 billion revolving senior collateral line opens the largest leg of this capacity — institutional lending previously accounted for 6.9% (about $310 million) of USDe reserves. If fully utilized, it would correspond to about 20% of the previous approximately $4.5 billion reserve, causing a significant change in yield structure. Second, structurally, "warehouse financing + bankruptcy isolation SPV + first-lien collateral interest" is a mature legal project that has operated for decades in traditional finance, and this time, for the first time, it is being implemented in bulk using stablecoin reserves as the source of funds. Stablecoin issuers thus gain a new identity: wholesalers of funds targeting the $1.5–2 trillion private credit market. Third, the moat comes from the product of three variables: zero-cost floating reserves on the liability side× distribution networks on the demand side (CEX margin, Aladdin, Robinhood, Coinbase) × structuring capabilities on the asset side (SPV, custody, ongoing third-party review). 2. Structural AnalysisMacro Background: Hawkish Rate Hike Expectations Are the Biggest Headwind
After Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's hawkish remarks, the market raised the probability of a rate hike in September from about 35% to 57-61.9%. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint. U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, and Q2 private demand annualized growth at 4.2%, with macro data supporting a tightening stance.
This Friday's U.S. August nonfarm payroll data is the biggest variable. If the data is weak, it may weaken rate hike expectations and provide relief for risk assets; if the data is strong, the probability of a rate hike will further increase.
On the geopolitical front, clashes between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated conflicts, pushing oil prices higher and gold prices up simultaneously. BTC, as "digital gold," has attracted safe-haven capital inflows.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 In the first week of September, the market focus shifts to U.S. employment data, but the real risk may not lie in the data itself, rather in its awkward "not bad enough" situation. Current pricing has heavily bet on a policy shift, with a clear logical chain: weak employment → rising expectations of rate cuts → risk assets get a breather. However, if the data only weakens slightly, neither bad enough to force policy adjustments nor strong enough to completely dash expectations, Bitcoin is more likely to fall into a choppy pattern of repeated stop-loss sweeps.
Both bulls and bears are reluctant to exit in this ambiguous zone: bulls firmly believe there is still room for rate cuts, while bears are convinced that high interest rates are not over yet. For short-term traders, this is undoubtedly the most agonizing environment—every breakout could be a front-run before data release, and every sharp drop might just be a forced liquidation of leveraged positions.
Rather than predicting whether there will be a rate cut in September, it is better to observe whether BTC’s initial reaction to the data release can be quickly reversed. If bad news doesn’t cause a drop and good news doesn’t cause a rise, that is the real warning signal, meaning the market has already priced in all expectations in advance. In the first week of September, what may decide the market is not the quality of the data but the market’s "reaction" to it. Risk warning: market volatility is intense, please control your positions rationally. This article does not constitute investment advice. $BTCAs of September 1, OKB is approximately $111, with a market cap of about $2.33B and a 24-hour trading volume of around $17.1M. The current total supply of OKB has been fixed at 21 million tokens, with no new issuance mechanism; meanwhile, OKB is gradually becoming the native Gas asset of the X Layer. 🏗️ The core logic of OKB is undergoing changes. In the past, OKB relied more on the user base, trading volume, and platform rights of the OKX exchange; now, OKB's value capture is expanding to "exchange + wallet + X Layer + on-chain applications." If the X Layer can continuously attract stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, and real users, OKB will no longer be just a trading platform token but may become the foundational asset of the OKX on-chain economy. 🔥 Tokenomics is the most obvious change for OKB. In 2025, OKX will complete a large-scale OKB burn and permanently fix the supply at 21 million tokens. This change means OKB has shifted from the previous continuous buyback and burn model to a fixed supply model. But it is important to note: **fixed supply does not necessarily mean value will rise.** What truly determines OKB's long-term value is how much real demand the OKX ecosystem generates and how much of that demand can be converted into OKB usage and value capture. 💰 Capital should focus on the conversion from "platform traffic → on-chain traffic." If OKX trading users continuously enter Wallet, X Layer, DeFi, stable Nearly 500 million people worldwide have touched Bitcoin. Isn't that impressive?
India has the largest population, while the United States has the highest penetration rate.
In contrast, countries with high inflation such as Vietnam, Argentina, and Turkey hold currency in particularly high proportions.
The reason isn't complicated: some people buy big pies because their national currency has fallen too hard, so they can only use it as a lifelong cash outlet.
Let's start with a core point: as the number of users grows≠ Bitcoin is about to skyrocket.
Currently, only about 4.5%–6% of people worldwide have encountered Bitcoin.
What does this mean?
Bitcoin has gradually transformed from a niche toy into a mainstream investment asset.
But it is still far from truly challenging the fiat currency system.
If it really wants to enter a nationwide asset competition, the penetration rate might need to aim for 50% or even higher.
Where are we now?
And the 500 million users themselves are inflated,
For example, if one person opens several exchange accounts or wallets, both on-chain and trading platforms may be counted repeatedly.
So it's actually hard to count how many are real users and how many are duplicate accounts within this number.
So dreaming of Bitcoin reaching millions of dollars still requires time, a major global economic crash.
The reality is that there is gold, a trillion-level giant beast on top.
Next to it are regulators, traditional finance, ETFs, and the banking system.
They won't actively give way just because Bitcoin users have grown larger.
So the real question isn't how many people have actually bought Bitcoin?
It's about how many people are willing to treat it as a long-term asset. ARB rose nearly 30% in a single day, with open interest increasing by more than 10%, making it the strongest mainstream asset in the crypto market in the past 24 hours. This round of rally was driven by more than just narrative. Offchain Labs co-founder Steven Goldfeder confirmed that Robinhood Chain's on-chain trading revenue in the past 24 hours exceeded $2 million, continuing to climb from about $1.22 million the previous day. Because Robinhood Chain uses the Arbitrum Dedicated Chain architecture, about 10% of net protocol revenue is returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Annualized at current levels: $2 million × 365 days× 10% ≈ $73 million. This is the first time in ARB history that an annualized revenue stream from a single app can be clearly attributed, with the market voting for a 30% increase. Twenty times in eight days ARK Invest capital markets analyst Lorenzo Valente provides a more compelling growth curve: Robinhood Chain's daily total revenue climbed from $54,676 on August 22 to $1.088 million on August 30, a nearly 20-fold increase in eight days. The share Arbitrum gained from this,Everyone is watching the ARB pump. I’m watching whether $0.11 can actually turn into support. $ARB is around $0.10875 after a sharp 24h move, while the catalyst is more interesting than the chart alone: Robinhood Chain generated over $2M in daily fees, and its Arbitrum-based infrastructure sends 10% of protocol net revenue into the Arbitrum ecosystem. But here’s the problem: derivatives activity has expanded aggressively, with futures volume reported above $800M and open interest up more than A few words about tonight's US stock market.
The three major indices all opened lower, with the Dow down 0.61%, the Nasdaq down 1.29%, and the S&P 500 down 0.68%. The seven tech giants all fell at the open—NVIDIA down 1.68%, Meta down 2.49%, Microsoft down 1.72%, Tesla down 2%, Amazon down 2.46%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index opened down 2%, NVIDIA down 1.8%, SanDisk down 2.72%, Micron and SK Hynix both down over 2%.
Two core suppressing factors:
First, the US and Iran are clashing again. After the US military airstrike on Iran's Larak Island, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched missiles at US military bases in retaliation. Brent crude oil neared $92 per barrel, directly pushing up inflation expectations.
Second, rate hike expectations are heating up. After Waller turned hawkish last week, swap market pricing shows the probability of a rate hike in September has exceeded 60%. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.782%, the highest since January this year. High oil prices plus high interest rate expectations create a dual pressure on risk assets.
Sector divergence is also very clear—oil and gas stocks are strengthening against the trend, with energy ETFs up about 2%; technology and semiconductor sectors are all down.
September started off under dual pressure from geopolitical tensions and rate hike expectations. Friday's nonfarm payroll data is the real test; before the data is released, large funds will not easily enter the market.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Long and short positions repeatedly changed hands throughout the day, with leverage never exceeding 2x — direction unclear, the market makers moderately harvesting in the tug-of-war between longs and shorts
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $19,500 $12,100 $7,425.25
4 hours $386,200 $194,600 $191,600
12 hours $452,200 $247,700 $204,500
24 hours $703,000 $420,400 $282,600
From the SPCX liquidation data, longs held a slight 1.63x advantage in the 1-hour window, with volume approaching $20,000, direction still unclear; the 4-hour long advantage sharply dropped to 1.02x, nearly balanced, but volume surged to $386,200 — both longs and shorts were liquidated simultaneously in the 4-hour window, showing clear bidirectional harvesting characteristics; in 12 hours, longs regained a slight 1.21x advantage, volume rose to $452,200; in 24 hours, longs closed with a 1.49x advantage, long liquidations at $420,400 versus shorts at $282,600, total liquidations exceeded $700,000. Long leverage ratios moved from 1.63x → 1.02x → 1.21x → 1.49x, with a daily amplitude of only 0.6x, showing an N-shaped oscillation trajectory, with longs and shorts changing hands three times but unable to break 2x leverage. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 64.3% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday Debut: Can Wash's "Hawk" Withstand the "Blade" of Data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an increase of 80,000. July's nonfarm unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, the worst this year.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, reaffirming the 2% inflation target as "firm and fixed," stating that if core inflation does not "clearly and quickly" decline, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High-Level Volatility: Gold Linkage Continues to Strengthen, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking above $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is the "fiat credit revaluation" — in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. Among them, SPDR Gold ETF net inflow was nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, after Wash's speech, rising rate hike expectations have suppressed both assets in the short term.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Face New Tests
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year; AI semiconductor revenue target is $16 billion, up over 200% year-over-year, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has repeatedly reaffirmed its AI semiconductor revenue target of $56 billion for fiscal 2026 and over $100 billion for fiscal 2027.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion in AI servers in Q1, with management guiding about 75% growth in the infrastructure segment in Q2, including about $15.5 billion in AI server revenue. But margin pressure is notable — infrastructure segment operating margin has dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "still has work to do" stance — if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week — the market awaits the final answer on September 4. SPCX liquidation data perfectly reflects the "volume contraction squeeze" state before the big event: long leverage never broke 2x all day, the 4-hour window was nearly balanced, and 64.3% concentration indicates most liquidations were completed in the first 12 hours. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Bitcoin spot ETFs have once again seen capital inflows, with a single-day net inflow of $216.7 million, ending the previous day's outflow trend. BlackRock's IBIT product alone absorbed $205.9 million, signaling a return of institutional buying.
Entering September, BTC continues to fluctuate near the high level around $78,000. However, the real risk focus in the market currently is not on ETF capital flows but on the macro factor of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Oil prices have stabilized above $90, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.78%. The market is repricing the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Bitcoin dipped to a low of $77,200 last night, with tightening liquidity expectations continuing to suppress the market. Given the macro-level uncertainties, aggressive short-term trading is not advisable.
There are also favorable signals on the chart: Bitcoin's full-month gain in August reached 24%. During this high-level consolidation phase, the total open interest in perpetual contracts has fallen to the lowest point since May, indicating no speculative leverage overheating in the market.
Going forward, two key thresholds to watch: if the price holds the $77,000 support, the market still has momentum to challenge the $80,000 level; if it breaks below $77,000 effectively, a deeper correction risk needs to be guarded against. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 OpenAI once called advertising a "last resort."
Now, ChatGPT Ads has achieved $1 billion in annualized revenue in less than 200 days and has started to open self-service advertising to India, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. 8ee13d
Reuters
In short, the chat window is becoming the new search box.
Subscriptions charge high-end users, while ads capture the attention of free users.
The real issue to discuss is not "whether there are ads," but: when answers start to include ads, do you still treat ChatGPT as a tool or as media? The EU has just classified ChatGPT as a "very large online search engine."
Note the wording: it's not a chatbot, it's a search engine. b5c8c2
Europa
The threshold is over 45 million monthly active users in the EU. Once this line is crossed, it must undergo the strictest risk assessment under the DSA and complete compliance within about 4 months.
Many people are still debating whether AI will replace Google.
Regulators have already preemptively defined the market: whoever handles "questions" is regulated as a search engine.
In the future, what you find on ChatGPT will increasingly resemble results shaped by regulations.$BTC MicroStrategy has finally started buying coins again! But this time it has changed, what is the real truth behind this change?
Sometimes, I really don't understand MicroStrategy! It always sells at lows and buys at highs.
According to the latest Bitcoin holdings disclosed by MicroStrategy.
From August 24 to August 30, 2026, the company acquired 4,603 bitcoins at an average price of $80,318.
The funds for this Bitcoin purchase mainly came from selling MSTR stock worth $602.8 million, of which $50.7 million was used to pay STRC interest, $367.9 million to buy stock, $151.8 million for post-meeting STRC stock, and $30 million to increase cash liquidity.
In the past, MicroStrategy was financially strong; when it sold stock, it often directly bought Bitcoin in full.
Previous operation mode: financing — buying coins.
Current operation mode: financing — buying coins, saving them, repurchasing stock, paying interest.
This subtle change indicates that although MicroStrategy still remains bullish on Bitcoin, the company's operational structure now faces more complex leverage and funding chain risks than before.
This is MicroStrategy's first Bitcoin purchase after a two-and-a-half-month pause.
This purchase has attracted a lot of attention.
The outside world has mixed opinions about this buying behavior.
Some say it finally came out to support Bitcoin, making up for the negative impact caused by previous sales.
Others say buying so much just increases risk for every investor.
Because everyone could be affected if the company’s heavy position and excessive financing cause asset structure problems, dragging everyone down.
Just like the rumors in March that MicroStrategy would sell Bitcoin, causing the price to plummet wildly.
Then two months ago, it tried selling some coins, and the price dropped again.
This shows how much influence MicroStrategy has on the crypto space.
Now continuing to buy Bitcoin again, total holdings increase further.
Such concerns are inevitable again, after all, it is no longer the crypto faith that swore to only buy and never sell!
Actually, personally, I am less willing to see MicroStrategy buy coins again.
Because, if you see it as a company, the background of the largest shareholder often determines how far the company can go.
If the largest shareholder is a country or a fund with a national background, that kind of endorsement would elevate Bitcoin’s status.
But now, the largest shareholder Satoshi Nakamoto is an unknown figure, the second largest shareholder MicroStrategy buys coins with financing, and the third largest shareholder BlackRock holds funds to buy coins (ETF), basically a large speculator.
So, more and more Bitcoin flowing into their hands will only increase future risks and uncertainties for Bitcoin.
The above is just a personal opinion and not investment advice.
#Strategy与BitMine同步增持 # Bitcoin rose about 24% in August and fluctuated around $80,000 by month-end. Once September arrived, the timeline began to carry the "September curse" again 840ecd
Cryptorank
Seasonality is a statistic, not a trading signal.
What's even more worth watching is the structure: whether spot ETF capital flows have weakened, whether exchange balances are at high levels, and whether leveraged trading is more exciting than spot ETFs.
The calendar won't help you trade.
When all three things worsen simultaneously, the seasonality becomes very harsh.
Don't mistake "September was bad in history" for "so today should be empty."Many people interpret OpenAI's cutting off from Cursor as Altman and Musk fighting again.
Of course, there are personal grudges.
But what really stands out is another thing:
Cutting-edge models are shifting from "APIs available anywhere" to "strategic resources that can be cut off at any time by adversary, terms, and control."
After SpaceX acquired Cursor, OpenAI notified that the contract would be received by November 12 at the latest, and future models (including Astra) would not be given again 7885ce
OpenAI
Developers used to choose tools based on experience.
Later, we still have to see: which model company's political map you stand on.
The stronger the model, the more distribution rights resemble oil pipelines.
Whoever can be cut off has no real product sovereignty.很多人把 OpenAI 切断 Cursor，理解成 Altman 和马斯克又打架了。
私人恩怨当然有。
但真正值得注意的是另一件事：
前沿模型正在从“随处可接的 API”，变成“可以按对手、按条款、按控制权随时掐掉的战略资源”。
SpaceX 收购 Cursor 后，OpenAI 已通知：合同最晚接到 11 月 12 日，而且未来模型（包括 Astra）不会再给。7885ce
OpenAI
开发者以前选工具，看的是体验。
以后还得看：你站在哪家模型公司的政治地图上。
模型越强，分发权就越像石油管道。
谁能被切断，谁就没有真正的产品主权。Let's analyze XRP, a coin that everyone is quite familiar with:
$XRP has risen about 40% in the past two weeks, climbing from $0.99 to $1.38, but there is a clear divergence in on-chain data—the total open interest in futures has actually dropped by 16%.
Capital is shifting positions.
Almost all exchanges are reducing their XRP futures holdings, except CME, which has bucked the trend with about a 36% increase, raising its share from 10% to 17%. Meanwhile, leveraged funds have doubled their net short positions to about 116 million XRP, while traders and asset management institutions have increased their net long positions by approximately 60 million and 28 million XRP respectively.
This position structure is very clear—retail and speculative funds are reducing holdings, institutional funds are quietly increasing positions on CME, and there is a clear divergence between longs and shorts. Leveraged funds are shorting, asset managers and traders are going long, and the core variable in this game is most likely the procedural Senate vote on the CLARITY Act in mid-September.
When the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee in May, it pushed XRP up about 5%. If it progresses smoothly in September, the compliance expectations for XRP will be a clear catalyst. But if it gets stuck, bullish expectations will also be dashed.
The surge in CME's position share often means institutions are positioning ahead of an event. This XRP rally is not based on fundamentals but on policy expectations. This logic will continue to ferment until mid-September. However, once the vote is finalized, whether the outcome is positive or falls short of expectations, a reassessment of direction will be necessary.The Cook era ends, and I am heavily long Apple at $323 — why?
On the first day of Apple's leadership change, the stock price surged above 325. I placed a long order at 323 and am currently in profit. Three solid reasons.
Technical: The price started rising from 315 at open, faced resistance at 326, then pulled back to stabilize at the MA5 moving average at 323. The MACD shows a golden cross with expanding red bars, indicating the bullish trend is not over. RSI is overbought, but the first pullback after a volume-driven rally is often a safe entry point.
Catalyst: The September launch event combined with the leadership change has the market pricing in a premium. This year there is an additional variable with a new CEO's debut.
Core: The AI strategy may undergo a qualitative change. During the Cook era, Apple's AI has always "borrowed" from others. Ternus, with a hardware background and experience on VisionPro, understands edge AI implementation better. Delivering truly useful edge AI on the iPhone could lift the valuation another level.
Risk: RSI is overbought, and the leadership change positive has mostly been priced in. The real test is at the September launch event.
Action: The 20x leveraged position is not heavy. Hold if the pullback does not break 320; exit if it does. Target is 335-340.
Leadership change is a big deal, but don't get carried away — the new CEO's first launch event is the real moment to bet on. I'm getting on board first and buckling up.
$AAPL $xAAPL
#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The most frustrating part of this market situation is not that the data is bad, but that it’s not bad enough.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is only 54.6, below the expected 55.2 and down from 55.6 in July.
Manufacturing is still expanding, but the pace has clearly slowed. For the market, this kind of data is the most tormenting: growth is starting to cool, but not weak enough to force the Fed to turn dovish immediately.
$BTC price is hovering around 77800; $XAU is more direct, dropping steadily to 4369 over 4 hours, down nearly 2% intraday. Both assets are taking hits, and I think the core issue is interest rate expectations.
Coming up are JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and nonfarm payrolls consecutively, and Wash’s hawkish stance will truly be put to the test.
If employment continues to cool, the market will bet again on policy easing, giving BTC and gold a chance to breathe; but if employment remains strong and inflation doesn’t come down, this wave of pressure probably isn’t over yet.
I’m not guessing the bottom now, just watching whether employment data can really push down interest rate expectations.
$ZEC
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
The bulls dominated the day in extreme moderation, but the multiples collapsed from 174 to 40 times—the short squeeze was barely a breath left, and the bears began to show signs at the close
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $327.35 $170.28 $157.06
4 hours $6,404.36 $6,247.30 $157.06
12 hours: $27,500 $27,400 $157.27
24 hours: $112,800 $110,000 $2,754.09
From LAB's liquidation data, 1-hour long positions controlled the market with a narrow 1.08x advantage, almost completely balanced, with a scale of only $327; 4-hour bulls were extremely crushed by 39.8x, soaring to $6,404, with short liquidations almost stagnant; 12-hour long advantage soared to 174x, with long positions liquidated at $27,400 and short positions at only $157.27, with short squeezes continuing to ferment with nuclear explosion-level intensity; 24-hour long advantage sharply dropped to 39.9x, with long liquidations at $110,000 versus bears at $2,754, cumulative liquidations exceeding $112,800. Bull multiples ranged from 1.08x → 39.8x to 174x → 174x →to 39.9x, forming an inverted V-shaped trajectory, with a second burst of short squeeze momentum followed by an avalanche exhaustion. 12-hour liquidations account for only 24.4% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration and indicating that pressure from liquidations continues to be released at the close—shorts jumped from $157 to $2,754, a 17-fold increase, with shorts being targeted liquidations, but the overall advantage of bulls remains huge. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; the direction is clear but momentum is severely exhausted, so do not blindly chase long positions.
🔥 Market Barometer | September 1st
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Walsh's hawkish tone is about to undergo the final test of employment data, Bitcoin and gold are deeply interlinked under "fiat credit revaluation," and Broadcom and Dell's earnings reports will take turns verifying the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Take the Stage on Friday: Can Wash's "Eagles" Withstand the "Knife" of Stats?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys estimate an increase of 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an increase of 80,000. Meanwhile, the July nonfarm payroll shock unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 jobs, the worst of the year.
Just last week, Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech in Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times and reiterating that the 2% inflation target is "firm and fixed," and said that if underlying inflation does not fall "clearly and quickly enough," the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September soared from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse.
₿ BTC Fluctuates at High Levels: Gold Linkage Continues to Strengthen, ₿7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, briefly breaking through $81,000, but pulled back after hawkish comments from Walsh, currently fluctuating between $78,000 and $79,000.
The core logic behind the previous synchronized rally is "fiat credit revaluation"—over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a record $7 billion in inflows. Among them, the SPDR Gold ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $3.4 billion, and the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin, but instead buy both types of "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, after Walsh's speech, expectations for rate hikes surged, putting short-term pressure on both asset classes.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns are being tested again
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, this week marks a new round of testing in the AI hardware sector.
Broadcom will release its Q3 earnings report after market close on September 2. The market expects revenue to be around $29.4 billion, an 84% year-on-year increase; AI semiconductor revenue targets $16 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 200%, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has previously reiterated its AI semiconductor revenue target of $56 billion for fiscal year 2026, with plans to exceed $100 billion in fiscal year 2027.
Dell will release its Q2 earnings report after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion worth of AI servers in Q1, and management forecasts that the infrastructure segment will grow about 75% in Q2, with AI server revenue around $15.5 billion. However, margin pressure cannot be ignored—the infrastructure segment's operating margin has dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: this Friday, the nonfarm payrolls will test Walsh's hawkish stance of "still working to be done"—if employment weakens further, the 60% rate hike expectation could quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record-breaking $7 billion ETF influx; Broadcom and Dell's earnings reports will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with profit margin pressures becoming a new focus.
When employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week—the market is waiting for the final answer on September 4. LAB's liquidation data reveals a typical characteristic of small-cap stocks before major events: the long multiple has collapsed from an extreme peak of 174 times to 40 times, combined with a low concentration of 24.4%, indicating that after the dog farm cleared its market during the day, it started harvesting the bulls again at the close—a muted frog-like two-way harvest. The overall direction still depends on the implementation of nonfarm payrolls. #就业数据密集公布, Walsh's policy stance is being tested
#BTC高位震荡, enhanced synergy with gold
#财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are being tested again $MU is sitting around $955.80, close to the $1,000 psychological level. The AI-memory story is still strong. Micron just posted record fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46B, and the company has already scheduled its next earnings report for September 30. But here’s the part I’m watching today: Taiwan-based unions representing nearly 10,000 Micron workers are threatening strike action over the company’s bonus structure. With Taiwan being a major manufacturing hub for Micron, this adds a real near-term e🔥 Brief Understanding: US August ISM Manufacturing PMI Released
The latest US August ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.6
This was below the expected value of 55.2, down from July's 55.6
In short:
🔥 This data is used to assess whether business at U.S. factories is good
The August reading was 54.6, slightly below market expectations
⚠️ But note, as long as the value is greater than 50,
This means manufacturing is still making money and expanding
🐢 It's just that the pace of expansion has slowed recently
Over the past five months, U.S. factories have been in a state of expansion
💪 However, the momentum of this month's recovery has not been as strong as everyone expected
This event cannot be considered a major positive or negative development
➕ Economic growth slowed slightly
The Fed's willingness to raise interest rates will weaken slightly
➖ But the economy hasn't worsened
So rate cuts are basically out of the question
Whether interest rates will be raised or not
Still depends on the "price and employment data coming up"
😱 This news only briefly eases everyone's panic
It cannot trigger a major market rally
🤔 Will it affect nonfarm payroll data?
Very small! Manufacturing employment accounts for only a small portion; the service sector is the main force
The Fed still has to wait for core data such as nonfarm payrolls and CPI
Then decide on the direction of interest rates
$BTC Still at the 80,000 mark
$ETH Still at the 2500 mark
As for me, I forgot about $SNDK because I was watching $ENA
Without any fluctuations, ENA also broke free and exited......
#就业数据密集公布, Walsh's policy stance is being put to the test Today, 39.5 million tokens were unlocked! Re-staking giant EigenLayer announces strategic restructuring: Can transforming into AI cloud save itself?
EigenLayer, the leader in the Ethereum restaking sector, today faced a dual battle in tokenomics and strategic direction.
On September 1, EigenLayer officially unlocked about 39.5 million EIGEN tokens, mainly targeting early-stage investors and core contributors. Facing the reality of a sharp drop in token prices from historical highs and fierce competition in restaking yields, the official team reassured them on the same day as the unlock—fully transforming into the "EigenCloud" verifiable cloud computing platform.
The core logic of this strategic shift is:
First, break free from the monotonous involution within the Ethereum ecosystem. Traditional restaking is limited to providing economic security for cross-chain bridges or oracles, but EigenCloud directly empowers this multi-billion-dollar staking security pool with AI inference verification, data availability (EigenDA), and decentralized off-chain computing power;
Second, reshape token value with real AI commercial needs. This allows EIGEN holders to receive real dividends directly from verifiable computational fees paid by global AI developers, breaking away from the previous pure inflation narrative of empty empty promises.
The big brother's survival by cutting off arms to embrace AI is an inevitable step toward maturity in the staking sector. 复盘近两个月的账本，真正造成亏损的并非山寨合约的频繁试错，而是 $LAB 与 $BEAT 这两枚重仓标的的深幅回撤。这让我意识到，仅凭价格位置开单远远不够，尤其面对波动无上限的品种时，止损纪律往往形同虚设。接下来我会把交易重心逐步转向现货，近期也在观察 HYPE、OKB、BNB 这类平台币的走势。三者虽各有潜力，但考虑到 BTC 当前所处的价格区间，资金外流的风险依然值得警惕。$OKB 流通市值偏低，若能等到一轮充分调整，现货介入的赔率或许更为理想；而 $HYPE 与 $BNB 市值已相对饱满，继续追高的效率恐怕有限。与其在合约里反复试探情绪边界，不如思考定投现货能否带来更平稳的复利体验。市场从不缺少机会，但控制回撤、保住本金，往往比追求短期爆发更接近长期盈利的本质。风险提示：加密资产价格波动剧烈，请理性评估自身承受能力，本文不构成投资建议。 $OKB#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO
Straight talk: Apple changes leadership with Ternus taking over as CEO, a smooth handover officially announced in April, not a sudden positive surprise, the market has already digested this.
Look at $AAPL today (9.1) surging to 324.79, +2.51%, piercing the upper Bollinger Band, MACD golden cross, 5/10/20-day moving averages all underfoot, volume ratio 2.77, capital already positioning ahead of the 9.9 foldable screen + iPhone 18 launch event.
Mid-term perspective: the direction is upward, but it’s a "leading expectations" move, not a blind buy.
Bull case: Ternus is a hardware veteran, he pushed iPad/Silicon, the market sees this as a "product person’s return," edge AI story on the device side is sexier than Cook’s supply chain, service business provides a floor. Bear case: 37x PE is not cheap, AI lagging behind Google and Microsoft is obvious, historical pattern often "pump before release, sell on the day," the 324 level is vulnerable to selling pressure.
Mid-term upside is possible, but don’t chase between 325-330, better to buy on pullbacks at 315-318; if volume supports a steady break above 330, look for 365-400 institutional targets, if it falls below 310 this move is a fakeout.
Focus tightly on the 9.9 launch event highlights + October earnings gross margin, everything else is noise.
$ETH and $BTC continue to consolidate today, almost there!!!
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Everyone is watching XRP’s rebound. I’m watching whether $1.33 holds. The fresh catalyst is interesting: Ripple has expanded its institutional infrastructure in Asia Pacific through a new partnership with SettleMint, while XRP ETF demand has remained resilient. But there’s an easy detail to miss. Ripple released 1B XRP from escrow today. Much of the supply is typically re-escrowed, so this doesn't automatically mean selling — but it creates a short-term supply overhang exactly while XRP is tryi#苹果换帅: Ternus took over as CEO
Trauss's challenge is clear—Apple needs an answer in the AI era, and it needs to be given quickly.
Apple has long been considered lagging behind in the AI race, with Microsoft and Google leading the way, but Apple hasn't yet presented a decent card. Trauss comes from a hardware background; whether he can truly integrate AI functions with hardware will determine Apple's position in the next decade. Vision Pro is his creation, but the market response has been lukewarm. AI hasn't been implemented yet; Apple needs a new direction.
For the crypto world, there are two lines worth pondering about this matter.
First, Apple's AI strategy directly affects the sentiment of the entire tech sector. If Apple can make substantial progress on AI, the entire tech sector will be repriced, and crypto as a high-beta asset will benefit accordingly. If Apple continues to stall in AI, tech stocks will come under pressure, and crypto will not escape either.
Second, whether Apple will venture into crypto payments or digital assets. During the Cook era, Apple has always "watched but didn't get involved" in crypto, and Apple Pay still hasn't supported crypto payments. Whether Truss will change this direction after taking over is still unknown. Samsung is already doing it, and whether Apple will follow is a bigger variable than any technological upgrade.
Let me share my thoughts.
Apple's leadership change has no direct impact on BTC. But how Apple moves in the AI era determines the overall sentiment in the tech sector. Liquidity in the crypto market is highly correlated with the sentiment of tech stocks; if Apple makes the right move, the whole market benefits. If it makes the wrong move, everyone bears the burden together. The United States and Iran have once again engaged in direct military conflict, and Trump has threatened further strikes on Iran, causing tensions in the Middle East to escalate again.
Normally, the $XAU script should be like this: war escalation → everyone seeks safe havens → buying gold → gold surges.
But this time the script is somewhat different: war escalation → increased risk in Hormuz → BZ, $CL crude oil prices rise → energy inflation risk rises → Fed finds it harder to ease interest rate policy → global bond yields rise → gold falls.
Both scenarios make sense, but currently, the second scenario clearly dominates: the market's fear of inflation outweighs the demand for safe havens, and the rising Middle East tensions have become a negative factor for gold.
This also reminds us again that many things have two sides; the market was trading war safe havens yesterday, but today it may shift to trading inflation and rate hikes; understanding the underlying logic behind these event trades and preparing corresponding plans is essential to be ready for similar events in the future 🫡$BTC $ETH 📊
The market is currently stuck in a messy phase of high-level consolidation + short-squeeze rebound + macro pressure.
$BTC continues to chop between $78K–$79K, briefly reaching around $79.2K on September 1 before pulling back.
Over the past 24 hours, roughly $150M–$440M in positions were liquidated across the market, with shorts taking most of the damage. That looks more like a classic short squeeze than a move driven by fresh capital entering the market. 🔥
Meanwhile, spot BTC ETF inflows broke their nine-day streak, with around $200M in net outflows on August 28, suggesting institutional buying momentum has weakened significantly.
The macro picture is also creating additional pressure:
📈 10Y U.S. Treasury yield: ~4.76%
📈 September rate-hike probability: above 65%
💧 Tokenized U.S. stocks continue competing for market liquidity
$ETH managed to rebound alongside Bitcoin toward $2,470, but its strength remains weaker than the broader market. Altcoins are also struggling to attract meaningful volume.
⚠️ My Current View
No volume + limited fresh liquidity + hawkish macro = a fragile rebound.
Until $BTC can convincingly break and hold above the $79K–$80K zone, I’m treating this bounce as potentially part of a larger downward continuation rather than the start of a new leg higher.
If resistance continues to hold, the next major area I’m watching is around $76K. 🎯
This is my personal market view, not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation I actually talked about BTC's 50-week moving average before, but after reviewing the history these past two days, I think I need to add another indicator as well: the 50-week MA + Weekly Supertrend. Looking at these two together is much more interesting than just focusing on 80,000, ETF inflows, or how much it rose in a single day. Let's look at October 2015, when $BTC reclaimed the 50-week moving average near $280, and then the Weekly Supertrend completed a long-term bullish increase. Everyone knows what happened next. $BTC went from a few hundred dollars all the way up to nearly $20,000 in 2017. That real bull market slowly started from this stage. Galaxy's historical statistics also show that after the 2015 MA rebounded, the price stayed above this line for 135 consecutive weeks. After BTC fell to just over $3,000 at the end of 2018, it reclaimed the 50W MA in May 2019, with the weekly price around $5,800. Just over a month later, BTC surged to nearly $14,000, more than doubling its value. The 2022 bear market was more typical—BTC hit a low of over $15,000, and Weekly Supertrend rebounded in early 2023Market Brief: SNDK MSCI Inclusion Catalyst Market Interpretation
Market Overview
SNDK experiences a significant surge, primarily driven by its official inclusion in the MSCI Global Index. This is compounded by the long-term AI storage narrative, Japan's capacity expansion plans, and positive earnings data, creating multiple favorable factors resonating together. Institutions generally hold a bullish stance, with target prices indicating upward expectations.
At the same time, posts objectively warn of risks: the passive buying from MSCI index inclusion is short-term in nature, the stock price has entered a high valuation range, and there is pressure for a pullback; earnings will also be affected by domestic market demand and NAND flash memory cycle fluctuations. Screenshots also show some short-term accounts with 30-day returns soaring several times, with extremely strong profit potential under high leverage.
Market Logic
MSCI inclusion brings passive capital allocation from index funds, which is an event-driven catalyst that will boost the stock price in the short term. However, once passive funds complete their allocation, this buying pressure will fade, and the market cannot rely solely on this event.
AI storage represents a medium- to long-term industry logic, but storage itself is a highly cyclical sector. NAND price fluctuations directly impact corporate profits, and after the concentrated realization of positive factors, high valuations become fragile.
The exaggerated short-term returns of high-leverage accounts result from the market's dividend, but on the other hand, it also means that once the cycle reverses or the event-driven benefits dissipate, the drawdown damage will be equally severe.
Trading Insights
Distinguish between event-driven and long-term industry logic; index inclusion is a short-term catalyst and should not be considered the sole reason for sustained price increases. ETF inflows slow down, gold surges, beware of the risk of bullish and bearish switches in the crypto market📉
Recently, the net inflow scale of BTC ETFs has declined, gold has sharply risen stimulated by macro data, and safe-haven funds have begun to reallocate, causing a significant shift in long and short positions in crypto futures markets.
Although $BTC still has institutional support, the weakening incremental inflow reveals increasing resistance above; $ETH is squeezed by both macro and ecosystem factors, expanding its volatility range, with pullbacks often stronger than BTC; $ZEC relies on privacy narratives and may show independent short-term pulses amid rising risk-off sentiment, but it is difficult to break free from overall market constraints.
The strengthening of gold directly suppresses risk asset sentiment; even if ETFs are still flowing in, it cannot stop short-term selling pressure release. Do not stubbornly hold long futures positions, nor open heavy short positions just because gold is surging.
Once ETFs turn to sustained outflows combined with a pullback from gold's highs, the market can easily experience a rapid sell-off. Treat spot positions in batches and strictly control leverage in futures; in a volatile market, double-sided liquidations are most likely.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Before going to bed, I placed a short order on $BTC at 79200. When I woke up and checked the market, I was already up a few hundred U. The take profit is set at 78100; I’m not greedy, I’ll exit once the profit is decent. This order was opened around 79150, and now it’s fluctuating around 78500, so the profit margin is still okay.
The most obvious thing in last night’s market was the sudden increase in selling pressure above 79300. After a spike, the volume couldn’t keep up, and it directly retracted to the previous dense trading zone. I treat this as a short-term pullback, not a trend reversal, so I’ll exit at 78100. Taking a smaller profit is better than getting pulled back. Shorting in a bull market is inherently against the trend, so it’s best to take profits when you can.
Gold is still used as a sentiment thermometer here. With the US and Iran clashing again, oil prices broke through $90, and inflation expectations remain high, making it hard for gold to weaken completely. But the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 4.75%, and the high interest rates have sealed off upside potential. It’s a high-level consolidation, difficult to break either way.
I still don’t dare to short ZEC recklessly. Although there was a wave of profit-taking after the ETF launch, the privacy sector’s heat hasn’t cooled down. ZEC rose more than 4 points today to $853, with strong support at high levels, so an independent rally may continue.
This time I’m only taking profit on this $BTC segment, see you at 78100, and I’ll exit once it’s reached.
$BTC
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 On September 1, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) launched a consultation on stablecoin regulatory amendments, preparing to further incorporate the 2023 framework into the Payment Services Act. The core is just a few words: reserves must be genuine, redemption must be fast, issuance must be compliant. 🔹 100% reserve support 🔹 Redemption 🔹 at face value Prohibition of interest payments to stablecoin holders 🔹 Some eligible overseas stablecoins may also be recognized 🔹 by MAS Non-MAS regulated stablecoins will still be regulated as digital payment tokens Moreover, this is only the consultation phase; comments are accepted as of October 16, so the new regulations have not been fully implemented. This signals to both $USDT and $USDC: In the future, stablecoins may compete not just about market capitalization, but about who can obtain more regulatory passes. USDT liquidity remains huge, but compliance coverage is becoming a new competitive dimension; Stablecoins like USDC, which lean more toward compliance, may be more likely to enter institutional settlement and traditional financial scenarios. Even more interestingly, today there are reports that 21 major financial institutions plan to launch US dollar stablecoins by 2027, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank. Traditional finance is getting involved. So what I care about more is not whether USDT will disappear, but rather: stablecoins are shifting from trading instruments to financial infrastructure. Meanwhile, BTC's positioning is becoming increasingly clear—stablecoins are responsible for payments, settlement, and liquidity, while BTC is responsible for scarcity and value storage $BTC $USDT $USDC #Bit📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Bears dominated all day with extreme pressure, volume very small but highly concentrated—whales completed targeted clearing on KAITO, but the scale was negligible.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $206.68 $206.68 $0
4 hours $13,700 $13,400 $337.12
12 hours $22,800 $22,500 $340.35
24 hours $25,400 $24,900 $548.33
From KAITO liquidation data, bears monopolized all liquidations in 1 hour, with long liquidations at $206.68 and shorts at 0, starting with extreme short squeeze pressure but at a probing volume; at 4 hours bears maintained an extreme 39.7x pressure, volume rose to $13,700; at 12 hours bear advantage expanded to 66x, volume rose to $22,800, short squeeze momentum peaked; at 24 hours bear advantage narrowed to 45.4x at close, long liquidations $24,900 vs. shorts $548.33, total liquidation only $25,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for 89.8% of the 24-hour total, showing very high concentration—large-scale liquidations almost all occurred in the first 12 hours, with almost no increase at the end. Bear multiples followed an inverted V pattern from extreme pressure → 39.7x → 66x → 45.4x, indicating short squeeze momentum rose then fell. Although bears were highly aligned, the 24-hour total liquidation was only $25,400, volume in a "probing" range, indicating extremely thin contract liquidity where small funds in any direction can cause multiple extra slippage. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; direction is clear but volume too small, avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm Friday Debut: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.1%; Wells Fargo expects an 80,000 increase. July nonfarm unexpectedly dropped by 23,000, the worst this year.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, reaffirming the 2% inflation target as "firm and fixed," stating if core inflation does not "clearly and quickly" fall, the Fed "still has work to do." CME data shows September rate hike probability jumped from about 35% before the speech to 60%. If this week's data weakens again, the 60% hike expectation may quickly collapse.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Strengthens, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000.
The core logic driving the prior synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow. SPDR Gold ETF net inflow nearly $3.4 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF net inflow $1.5 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously. However, rate hike expectations rose after Wash's speech, suppressing both assets short term.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Hardware Returns Under Further Test
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% YoY; AI semiconductor revenue target $16 billion, up over 200% YoY, accounting for more than half of total revenue. The company has repeatedly reaffirmed a $56 billion AI semiconductor revenue target for fiscal 2026, exceeding $100 billion in fiscal 2027.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company built $16.1 billion in AI servers in Q1; management guides Q2 infrastructure segment growth around 75%, with AI server revenue about $15.5 billion. But margin pressure is notable—the infrastructure segment operating margin dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: This Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's "still has work to do" hawkishness—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week—the market awaits the final answer on September 4. KAITO's liquidation data is a typical "liquidity trap" sample: bears exert 66x extreme leverage to clear longs, but total 24-hour liquidation is only $25,400, showing small funds in any direction can create extreme data in thin liquidity. Such contract liquidation signals before major events have almost no reference value for the broader market. Control your risk and wait for nonfarm to land. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $CRV up +12.7% in one day, the DeFi sector is going crazy along with ARB, why can it also rise?
Today is not just ARB's market, (CRV,) UNI, and $OP are all rising, the entire DeFi sector is lifting together.
Why is CRV following? Three reasons:
1: Money is moving from Bitcoin to DeFi.
$BTC hasn't moved much today, but ARB, CRV, UNI—these DeFi coins are pulling up. Some analysts call it "smart money rotation"—Bitcoin stays still, funds flow into DeFi with room for catch-up gains, and CRV benefits from the sector's dividend.
2: Shorts are being forced to cover.
When CRV rises, contract open interest is decreasing—shorts panic and cover, which in turn pushes the price up, a classic short squeeze. The faster it rises, the quicker the pace.
3: Technical levels have been broken.
CRV was stuck below $0.33 a few days ago, today it broke above and returned to the main moving averages, technical traders chase the breakout.
In short: CRV today relies half on sector sentiment and half on a short squeeze. No big news, it’s the type that "follows ARB to profit."
Reminder: Rotating money comes fast and goes fast, don’t chase at the tail end. Currently in a tangled phase of "high-level oscillation + short squeeze rebound + macro suppression." BTC fluctuates repeatedly in the 78,000–79,000 range, reaching a high of 79,200 intraday on 9/1 before falling back. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated about 150–440 million USD, mainly short positions, a typical short squeeze without incremental entry.
Spot ETF inflows ended on the ninth day, with a net outflow of about 200 million USD on 8/28, and institutional buying nearly halted; 10Y US Treasury yield at 4.76%, September rate hike probability over 65%, and US stock tokenization continues to divert liquidity. ETH rebounded with BTC to around 2,470 but weaker than the broader market, altcoins lack volume.
Overall, no volume, no fresh liquidity, macro is hawkish; the rebound is seen as a downward continuation, failure to break 79–80k still points to a retest of 76k. $SOL The real change has arrived It's no longer just supported by Meme coins Today I saw a set of Solana data, and I think it's more worth paying attention to than the short-term price fluctuations of $SOL. Although Solana network revenue in the first half of this year dropped 87% year-on-year, the underlying structure has completely changed: the proportion of Meme coins in spot trading volume dropped from 40% to 16%, while stablecoins rose from 6% to 19%. Even more striking, Solana now accounts