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GRVT: Secondary pricing after the event premium fades
$GRVT is currently in a phase of high price volatility following listing events. The current price is about $0.286, with a 24-hour drawdown of over 8%, but the trading volume is as high as 11.6 times the market cap, reflecting that the chips are still trading frequently and a stable holding consensus has yet to be formed.
The core variable on the market lies in the game between liquidity expansion and supply discounts. Recently, several major trading channels have opened simultaneously, significantly reducing liquidity discounts; However, the current circulating supply is only about 114.3 million tokens, accounting for 11.4% of total supply. The $32.7M circulating market cap corresponds to $286.3M FDV, and valuations are still suppressed by future unlocking and airdrop supply.
Extremely high trading volume does not necessarily mean trend accumulation. If trading volume continues to expand but the price fails to recover $0.318, turnover is closer to inventory transfer and distribution; If volume shrinks and the price stops falling in the $0.274–$0.285 range, it constitutes signs of seller exhaustion and short-term re-accumulation.
The derivatives structure is slightly bearish. The long-short ratio is about 0.82, with bears holding the advantage, but the funding rate remains positive, showing a weak structure of falling prices and paying long positions. Its reflexivity lies in the fact that once spot volume increases and breaks through $0.318, short covering could quickly amplify the upward slope; After the breakout, liquidity targets are at $0.342–$0.351 and $0.454, respectively.
The downside structure uses $0.274 as the first failure level. A valid breakdown and rebound resistance will occur, with the price likely to retest $0.261; if this area fails to form a rapid recovery, the market will re-examine liquidity at the previous low of $0.223–$0.230.
In trading, the $0.274–$0.318 range remains the event premium absorption zone, lacking the conditions for directional betting with a high P/E ratio. Only after holding above $0.318 will the short-term structural reversal be confirmed; If it falls below $0.274, the market switches to a supply-driven downward model.
GRVT's mid-term valuation ultimately depends on platform trading revenue, capital retention, and token value capture efficiency. At this stage, the fundamental narrative is sufficient to maintain trading enthusiasm but is insufficient to offset the valuation discount caused by low circulation, high FDV, and subsequent supply release.🔥BTC breaks through 65,000! Is this a real breakthrough or just a fake?
With the US-Iran ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plummeting, inflation concerns temporarily set aside, and risk assets collectively went on air. Bitcoin has dropped nearly half from its all-time high of 126,000, and now that it has reached 65,000, bulls and bears are about to engage in a battle again.
On the technical side, 65,000 has turned from resistance to support; if it holds the 68,000-70,000 level, it will fail to test 62,000. On-chain data is even more interesting: 155,000 BTC moved to the 62,000-65,000 range, whale holdings increased from 2.87 million to 3.06 million, and 41 out of 45 indicators point to historical accumulation zones. Long-term holders are steady as Mount Tai, while short-term holders are selling their losses and exiting—a typical bottoming signal.
On the macro level, ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $200 million for two consecutive days, but overall outflows continued the previous week, with US Treasury yields at 4.7% suppressing funds. There are three market scenarios: a high probability (55%) is to fluctuate between 57,700 and 67,000, closing at 60,000 to 64,000 at the end of the month; 30% may break below 57,700, with a test of 52,000; only 15% will hold above 67,000 and reach 71,000 to 74,000.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
Right now, it's just a 'boring bottoming'—no panic, no passion. Next, nonfarm payrolls, CPI, Jackson Hole — any single data point can trigger volatility. Take it easy on high positions, don't chase rallies or sell-offs #Circle After earnings report betting on Arc, can USDC see new growth? #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? What use is good performance for $SNDK?
The lifeline for storage stocks is not the financial report at all.
SanDisk's Q2 results exceeded expectations, but the guidance for the next quarter did not meet the market's "explosive" expectations, dropping 5% after hours and falling more than 10% pre-market; Western Digital also posted impressive profits but gave guidance that "doesn't satisfy," leading to a sharp sell-off.
Previously, Samsung and SK Hynix also plummeted after their earnings reports.
The market logic is clear: stock prices speculate on future growth, not the past that has already been realized.
The AI market has pushed expectations to the limit; merely "exceeding expectations" is far from enough. Guidance must be spectacular enough to support high valuations. Any shortfall, and capital immediately votes with its feet. Once earnings are realized, they become old news; the gap in expectations is the real lifeline.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 毫无疑问，当前黄金的强势上涨与BTC的缺席已形成鲜明对比，这一分化背后有着清晰的宏观逻辑支撑。
黄金近期走强，得益于多重利好的共振： 就业数据降温、中东局势缓和带动油价回落、全球央行持续购金、以及技术面超跌后的反弹需求——四重驱动叠加，方向明确向上。
但必须正视今晚非农数据的潜在风险：若就业数据超预期强劲，降息预期将迅速回摆，金价可能冲高后剧烈回调。策略上绝不可追多，只宜依托关键支撑位低多介入，且务必严控仓位风险。
反观BTC，其缺席黄金盛宴的原因极其确定：
1. 属性定性——BTC仍被市场归类为风险资产，避险成色远不足，无法与黄金相提并论；
2. 买盘结构——缺乏央行级别的主权买盘背书，增量资金完全依赖风险偏好；
3. 周期阶段——减半利好早已兑现，市场炒作热度消退，资金关注度明显下降。
当前BTC仅能勉强沾边“降息预期”这一条逻辑，但弹性远逊于黄金。非农数据公布前，黄金宜轻仓操作，BTC则建议暂时观望——风控永远优先于机会判断。
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？Pre-market focus for US stocks
High-growth stocks fear slowing down the most.
$APP Q2 revenue was $1.924 billion, up 53% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin still at 84%. The numbers look strong, but revenue was slightly below market expectations, with Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance at about 83%, down about 18.5% before market opening.
What the market is repricing is its valuation that "continues to exceed expectations every quarter." In the past, people were willing to offer high prices because growth and profit margins rose together; Now, as growth slows and profit margins stop, even if they are still making money, valuations will be cut first.
Tonight, let's look at the post-opening support. After opening low, volume increased to cover part of the gap, indicating funds are willing to take in; If the rebound has no volume, the valuation pressure hasn't fully been released yet.After the earnings report, the market plunged, but funds ramped up—SanDisk's market is playing out a "price vs. capital divergence" game. According to TradingBeats monitoring, SNDK is currently trading at $1,240.1, down about 12.2% in 24 hours. At the same time, however, the value of open interest actually rose from $135 million to $190 million, an increase of about $54.78 million, a growth of 40.6%. Funds did not exit with the decline but continued to increase their holdings after the earnings report. The current hourly funding rate is about +0.00409%, and the cost of new positions remains biased toward the bulls. 0xc8b whale returns to SanDisk, adding $15.55 million against the trend. Previously ranked first in SKHX long holdings, 0xc8b whale bought 12,527.6 shares of SNDK within about 20 minutes this afternoon, with a turnover of approximately $15.557 million and a weighted average position price of $1,241.9. As of press time, this address holds a 2x cross-margin position on SNDK long positions, with a floating loss of about $22,000 (-0.3%) and a liquidation price of about $88. This is not chasing gains—it's picking up on declines. This address did not choose to add positions during the rise, but entered when SanDisk's intraday drop exceeded 10%. The average position opening price was $1,241.9, almost the lowest point of the day. Currently, there are no take-profit, stop-loss, or additional positions set for take-profit, stop-loss, or additional positions. When prices crash and OI increases sharply, it usually means market divergence is intensifying. Bears are increasing their positions, and bulls are also increasing their positions—the direction after the earnings report has yet to be clearly determined. And 0xc8b this one before$ZBT What do you think is the most important future value of ZK: privacy, verifiable computation, or proof of on-chain yield?
ZEROBASE has real needs in its direction and already has zkStaking products. But what needs to be verified now is not "whether ZK will explode," but "whether ZEROBASE can attract external customers who continue to pay, and whether this revenue can create real demand for ZBT."
1️⃣ Circulating supply is about 316 million tokens, with a circulating market capitalization of approximately 46 million USD
2️⃣ Maximum supply of 1 billion tokens, FDV of about $146 million
3️⃣ Currently, about 31.6% is supplied and circulated, with the remaining 68.4% yet to enter the market
Currently, there are only about 7,550 ETH Ethereum on-chain holding addresses, and zkStaking users deposit stablecoins and do not need to hold ZBT.
This means that even if ZEROBASE has products and TVL, it does not mean these users have converted into genuine ZBT needs.
Is ZBT's current rise due to repricing driven by business growth, or is it driven by the ZK narrative, low circulation, and trading enthusiasm?
This is currently the most pressing issue to verify.
This is not investment advice, for project research purposes only.$SOL Heavy volume drives down bulls, while bears strictly suppress prices. Institutional funds "cut off": As of August 4, six Solana ETFs have had zero net inflows for five consecutive trading days. Meanwhile, stablecoins on the Solana chain continue to see net outflows, with major funds betting with their feet.
· Whale dumping and long squeezes: Big players closed long positions on platforms like Bitfinex, causing over $16 million in a single long liquidation in early August. This "more sells more" stampede is the direct driver of heavy volume and downward selling.
· Tightening macro liquidity: The market expects a nearly 60% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, and combined with falling US stocks, funds are accelerating further withdrawal from altcoins from mainstream assets like BTC and ETH.
· Negative impact on meme coins: The $TRUMP token based on Solana plummeted by about 97%-98%, causing nearly one million investors to lose approximately $3.8 billion and severely damaging market confidence in the Solana ecosystem.
Additionally, technically, there is strong resistance in the $74-75 range, with heavy selling pressure from trapped buyers above, further intensifying the decline.
📈 Potential variables in bullish and bearish games
There are also some potential positive factors during the decline (such as the community's proposed "14x burn plan"), but these are long-term expectations and cannot immediately reverse the short-term crash driven by liquidity and panic.
In summary, SOL's heavy volume surge on August 6 was the result of multiple resonances in liquidity (zero ETF inflows, stablecoin outflows), on-chain data (whale sell-offs, long margin liquidations), and news (meme coin scandals, macro rate hike expectations), reflecting risk-averse behavior in the market amid liquidity tightening expectations. #黄金重返4200美元, why didn't BTC follow the rise? Mixed Earnings, Lock-Up Expiration Ahead — What's Next for $SPCX ? 📊
Before $SNDK 's earnings, I seriously considered closing my position.
My average entry is 1,391, with the lower boundary set at 1,219. I believed that even with earnings volatility, price would likely stay within the range—so I stuck with the trade.
The results were solid:
• Revenue: $8.97B (beat expectations)
• EPS: 39.25
• Gross Margin: 84.6%
Yet the stock still dropped nearly 9% after hours.
The reason? Management guided next quarter's revenue about $250M below what the market wanted. In today's market, simply beating expectations isn't enough—investors want stronger forward guidance.
My position is now down around 17%, with price trading near 1,271, but my grid strategy remains active. As long as 1,219 holds, the plan doesn't change.
Of course, seeing a drawdown isn't comfortable. But this decline doesn't necessarily signal a problem with the business. We've seen similar reactions in $AMD and $SPCX—strong earnings followed by post-earnings selling because expectations were even higher.
For now, I'll stay disciplined. If the lower boundary breaks, I'll reassess. If the range holds, the grid keeps working.
📌 Grid trading thrives on volatility. As long as the trading range remains intact, the strategy stays in play.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 🚨 @Uniswap just launched its own token launchpad: Pools.
Instead of only powering launchpads, Uniswap is now competing with them.
The platform currently supports four launch modes, including permanent launches and CCA auctions with or without creator fees.
But CT wasn’t waiting for the frontend.
While Pools was still offline, traders were already deploying and trading “OG” tokens directly through the backend.
Some of the biggest narratives so far:
$POOLS
$FRONG
$UNIFROG
$FORK
Why would launchpads continue building on Uniswap if Uniswap is now competing for the same liquidity and users?#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Market Observation | Behind the counter-trend rally, be wary of divergence traps
Overseas US stock sectors generally declined, but leading coins have shown a reverse upward trend, and there are already growing voices in the market that the market is recovering across the board.
From my trading perspective, chasing the rally at this level carries far greater potential risks than the potential returns.
At this stage, my focus is on $ETH, and I need to distinguish whether this upward trend is a true trend reversal or just a short-term bullish fake.
The price rebounded from 1855 to 1927, breaking through 3.7% and regaining the key MA120 moving average at 1888.
Several moving averages such as MA5, MA10, MA20, MA30, and MA60 are all concentrated in the 1900-1910 range. Multiple indicators are highly converged, indicating that the market is about to undergo a directional shift.
Here arises a contradiction worth noting: the Nasdaq and S&P indices are falling simultaneously, so why have BTC and ETH managed to independently rise in their own ways?
In historical market trends, such divergence patterns are rarely sustained for long.
There are two subsequent scenarios: either the peripheral stock market continues to weaken, dragging down the coin price as well; Alternatively, the coin will see a catch-up decline and complete the correction and alignment of the trend.
Counter-trend rallies without fundamental support are mostly short-term traps.
Looking at the long-short position data, the current situation becomes clear: the overall ratio of long and short positions is clearly biased toward bulls, with many ordinary traders entering the market to go long, and the positions of major players also leaning bullish.
When bullish sentiment in the market becomes this crowded, if a large number of profitable orders flee in large numbers, it can easily trigger a rapid chain pullback.
I just placed a small position near 1911, using 50x leverage, with forced liquidation positioned around 2000.
The initial first observation target is set at 1880, and the second target is at 1850.
The overall position proportion is very low, treated as a trial and error for a light position.
With US stocks falling and coins rising against the trend, facing this abnormal market divergence, I chose to remain cautious and not blindly embrace this rebound. The 13F of the Italian bank's 13F is indeed shocking on the surface: IBIT reduced its common stock holdings by 94%, and pledged ETH funds increased by 201%. At first glance, everyone thought this bank was going to switch completely from BTC to ETH.
Laying out the entire holdings makes the story less dramatic.
Union São Paulo Bank's IBIT common shares fell from 646809 shares to 40,723 shares, a decrease of 93.7%; BlackRock's staked Ethereum ETF ETHB increased from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, up 200.9%. One decrease, one increase, the direction is clear, but the scales on both sides are simply not on the same scale.
At the end of Q2, the remaining IBIT common stock was declared at about $1.356 million, and ETHB at about $7.097 million. They still held 3.4736 million shares of ARKB, with a declared value of about $67.63 million, only 3.7% less than in Q1.
Combining IBIT and ARKB, this bank's BTC ETF position in common stock form is close to $68.99 million, still 9.7 times that of ETHB. There is also a Grayscale XRP ETF worth about $14.42 million. Based on the declared values of these three types of spot crypto ETFs: BTC accounts for 76.2%, XRP 15.9%, and staked ETH only 7.8%.
So the real move is: drastically compress IBIT, keep ARKB as the core BTC position, and conveniently allocate some ETH that can earn staking yields. Saying BTC has been completely replaced by ETH is far from the point.
Derivatives are even more aggressive. In Q1, IBIT call options accounted for 2.4965 million shares; in Q2, only 18,000 shares, a 99.3% drop; They also opened a new put option for 500,000 IBIT shares.
However, what 13F can see is limited: strike price, expiration date, premium is not disclosed, and the sold options and complete hedge portfolio are not visible. Whether this put option is insurance for the remaining BTC position or is hiding a more complex strategy is unclear based on this document; simply saying "banks are fully bearish on BTC" is enough.
Recent ETF capital flows have also shown no signs of institutional moves. On August 4 and 5, spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $211.5 million and $244.4 million respectively, totaling $455.9 million over two days; spot ETH ETFs saw inflows of $53.1 million and $60.8 million respectively over the same period, totaling $113.9 million. BTC still attracted four times more money than ETH.
As of 21:03 Beijing time, BTC was about $64,354, ETH about $1,625, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate was about 0.0253.
Ultimately, this position is more like an adjustment in product and yield structure: BTC supports the main crypto exposure, staking ETH earns an extra yield, and IBIT options are used for hedging or directional trading. A bank reducing a certain ETF is not enough to indicate institutions are starting to pivot.
If you really want to confirm a turnaround, you have to wait for three things to appear at the same time: ETH ETFs continue to attract higher capital inflows, the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthens, and the bank continues to reduce its ARKB holdings next quarter. Wait until all these factors are in place before making a conclusion.
#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%, increased staked ETH #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
Signals of easing in the Strait of Hormuz crisis have emerged, with oil prices $CL $BZ leading the decline, and the market beginning to trade on the logic of reduced risk.
Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary consensus on a temporary navigation plan, with the US also involved in coordination. Although the final agreement has not yet been finalized, funds have already bet in advance on the resumption of supply. The previous rise in oil prices was pricing in war risk; the current decline is a revaluation based on peace expectations.
The market always runs ahead of the news, like after a heavy rain when the sky hasn't fully cleared, but funds have already started to close their umbrellas.
I believe the biggest short-term change is not how much oil prices have fallen, but that global inflationary pressure may ease. If navigation through the Strait of Hormuz truly resumes, the drop in energy prices will reduce market concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, and liquidity expectations may shift back toward easing.
For $BTC, this is a potential positive.
In recent times, Bitcoin's rise has been suppressed by the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk-off sentiment. If geopolitical risks cool down and oil prices fall, market risk appetite may rebound, and funds will seek high-beta assets again.
However, BTC is unlikely to start a unilateral rally in the short term; the market still needs to confirm two signals: first, whether expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to rise; second, whether funds flow back into the crypto market.
At present, BTC is more likely to enter a consolidation and accumulation phase. After the negative factors have been released, market sentiment is recovering. If the macro environment continues to improve, BTC has a chance to challenge previous highs again. But if the agreement is only a temporary easing and oil prices rise again, risk assets will still face pressure.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! Sigh, although my words are harsh, I want to talk about why BTC didn't follow the gold rally this time
I want to say, everyone, be clear-headed! This kind of thing no longer works; the two are fundamentally different assets, and the driving logic behind the rally is completely misaligned. Gold rises, BTC moves sideways, and this will become the norm in the future.
Because gold is currently benefiting from a certainty recovery from cooling rate hike expectations + short covering, BTC is still stuck in the awkward period of unresolved regulation and lack of incremental funds. Without its own catalyst, it naturally can't keep up. So everyone, stop copying BTC's gold trend for a while—this logic has long since failed.
If you don't believe it, you can take a look at these numbers
On August 5, spot gold surged 4.16% in a single day, reaching a two-day high of $4,303, rebounding nearly 10% from the low of 3,942;
Meanwhile, BTC was trading in a narrow sideways range between $62,000 and $66,000, with a range of less than 7%, representing two completely different worlds. The core of the divergence is that their pricing anchors have long been completely separated.
So everyone, stay clear-headed. Their pricing logics have long diverged. Gold depends on interest rate easing + safe-haven recovery, but BTC relies on risk appetite + regulatory catalysts, driving different natural trends out of sync. Stop copying the "digital gold" calendar from $BTC $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? $SNXX Why did the stock plunge today—Three major negative factors, no reason for the dog farm to sell!
First, SanDisk's financial report plunged after the financial report! SanDisk's Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, exceeding expectations, but Q1 guidance of 10.3-10.8 billion was lower than the market expectation of 11.1-11.6 billion. After the earnings report, SanDisk plunged from 1441 to 1195, a 17% drop. SNXX went long twice as much as SanDisk, which fell 17%, and SNXX theoretically fell 34%—today's 27% drop is already considered "holding back."
Second, panic over storage cycle peaking! SanDisk's gross margin reached a record high of 84.6%, but the market fears this is the peak of the cycle. Cyclical stocks should be undervalued at the peak of the cycle.
Third, leveraged ETFs are the first to bear the brunt of the crash! Some analyses clearly state: "Leveraged instruments like SNXX (2x long) bear the brunt of declines because volatility is amplified." Do not attempt to catch the flying knife until the technical support structure is confirmed."A little after nine in the evening, after showering, my hair still dripping with water. Passing by the table, my fingers lighted up my phone screen—glanced at the price, then went dark again. August 6, 2026, an ordinary Thursday.
After more than an hour of on-chain records, I shared a few sets of data I actually saw today.
$BTC Today's intraday volatility was less than $900, and option IV fell to near the yearly low. However, in the afternoon, nearly 200 out-of-the-money call options were bought, expiring on September 25, which was somewhat abrupt in a bearish market.
$ETH Gas once fell below 4 Gwei, with the mainnet cooling down, but the number of USDC on-chain transfers increased by 12% compared to yesterday, indicating funds are shifting positions. ETFs saw net inflows for the eighth consecutive day, with small volume but rare persistence.
$SOL After a 5% intraday rally to $158, it fully pulled back, showing the spontaneous behavior of algorithmic trading in a low-liquidity environment.
$XRP A top 50 address transfers 12 million coins from exchanges into cold wallets, with high payment priority, not caring about cost but prioritizing security.
$LINK Price feeder calls maintain an average of over 11,000 times per day. One address has consistently bought 500 coins daily for the past two weeks, with deposits coming from compliant custodial institutions.
$AAVE Today, a 7.5 million USDC loan occurred. The borrower's address chain has a history of over 500 days, operating every two weeks, resembling a market maker hedging.
$MKR Burn volume rose 22% quarter-on-quarter. After several small addresses bought in concentrated, they directly locked up governance contracts and chose the maximum term.
$UNI Front-end transaction volume rebounded by 15% month-on-month, with daily active addresses returning to 20,000.
$LDO Staking volume increased by about 40,000 ETH, with stETH discount shrinking from 0.4% to within 0.1%.
$ENA Today saw a four-hour continuous small accumulation of 2,000-3,000 coins, totaling over 50,000 coins, with a highly consistent rhythm resembling separate address trading.
$ONDO One address has taken in more than a dozen consecutive limit orders, each with about 500 coins, totaling nearly 8,000 coins.
$ENS Domain registrations are 35% higher than the average of the previous three days, with over 80% being new registrations, unlike typical retail investor behavior.
$ARB** Trading volume is nearly 40% lower than last Friday, market makers are charging more frequently, reducing inventory. **$OP Similar but slightly smaller. $STRK Hit a new listing low, buyer position is pitifully thin, and the market lacks patience for new projects.
$SUI** fell nearly 3%, with active addresses down 20% from last week. **$APT Early investor addresses transferred 500,000 tokens into the exchange. $SEI Volume shrinks and prices fall, with no stabilization structure.
$PEPE** Correlation with BTC remains above 0.7, with funds treating it as a Beta alternative. **$WIF Turnover rate is the lowest in nearly two weeks, but was pushed back after being pushed back during trading. $BONK** and **$FLOKI dipped slightly, with liquidity still at the top but no attention at the mid-to-tail market.
$FET** and **$AGIX are relatively resilient, with AI narratives providing support but being fragile—when Bitcoin goes wrong, it falls even deeper.
$PENDLE** YouTube trading volume suddenly more than doubled. **$CRV TVL net outflow for the fifth consecutive day, community discussion heat continues to decline.
Summary of today's net inflow directions: $ENA, $PEPE, $ONDO, $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $ENS, $LDO, $RNDR, $FET**. Net outflow directions: **$WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $SUI, $APT, $SEI, $TIA, $DYDX, $CRV, $CAKE. Just one day sliced, tomorrow could be the opposite.
BTC and ETH balances on several exchanges fell simultaneously for the third consecutive day, with Bitcoin down by about 4,000 and ETH by about 20,000. Large holders are not panicking at the current level.
The total on-chain liquidation amount is less than $500,000, the lowest in nearly two months, indicating that leveraged bulls have almost finished clearing out.
Market makers today generally narrowed order spreads but canceled more frequently—willing to provide liquidity and unwilling to take inventory risk in any direction. They also have no direction.
It was 9:50, and the convenience store lights outside the window were still on.
No account movement today. In this kind of market, frequent moves lead to mistakes; staying still is good. Sometimes the best position management is doing nothing and saving energy when signals truly appear.
Tonight, I left my phone in the living room to charge. Before entering the bedroom, I glanced at it—still the same price.
August nights are quite long, so you don't have to endure every minute just to push through the candlesticks. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations were added Hyperliquid (HYPE)'s Billion-Dollar Valuation: Bubble or Real Money Printing Machine?
Conclusion for now: Hyperliquid (HYPE) currently has a circulating market cap of $12.45 billion and over $50 billion in FDV, which is indeed high enough to deter many, but it remains fundamentally focused on fundamentals, as it is the first super unicorn on the chain to be supported by strong protocol fee buybacks.
This is fundamentally different from the air tokens in the previous bull market, which only had governance functions and no cash flow dividends. In the past, DeFi protocols, despite large trading volumes, either ended up in the project team's pockets or locked up in the treasury and couldn't be returned to token holders, leaving the tokens as inflationary junk for retail investors. But Hyperliquid completely changed its approach: it used up to 97% to 99% of protocol fees directly for the repurchase of HYPE tokens. This meant that as long as the platform had trading volume, there would be a steady and extremely aggressive buying demand in the secondary market buying HYPE.
We can do the math with real data. According to DefiLlama's latest statistics, Hyperliquid's monthly perpetual contract trading volume in July reached an astonishing $218 billion, and the platform's TVL currently stands steady at $6.08 billion. Based on current fee rates, the platform's annualized revenue run-off has reached $768 million to $840 million. This means that every year, hundreds of millions of dollars repurchase HYPE in the secondary market, ignoring market fluctuations. Such a level of buyback is extremely rare in the entire crypto market, and it's the underlying logic behind its historic high of $76.81 in June.
I myself often hedge perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid. To be honest, in terms of order placement speed and transaction smoothness, it has already left other decentralized exchanges ahead of others, with an experience approaching that of traditional centralized exchanges. I also have a bit of HYPE spot in my own account. The position isn't large, but it's very stable. During junk time, I don't want to bet on new coins that rely on empty promises and airdrop points; I prefer to focus my efforts on assets with real users and strong cash flow.
In the coming months, I will focus on the incremental trading volume brought to the platform by Hyperliquid's newly introduced real-world assets (RWA) and prediction markets following the approval of the HIP-3 and HIP-4 proposals. As long as monthly perpetual trading volume remains above $200 billion, the buy-in released by the repo mechanism can effectively raise HYPE's valuation floor.这是2026年8月初加密行业关注度极高的标志性事件，曾经坚持"只买不卖"的比特币"超级多头"企业Strategy（原MSTR）完成了新一轮大规模比特币减持，相关细节和背后逻辑可以梳理如下： 核心交易细节 在2026年7月27日至8月2日期间，Strategy累计出售1638枚比特币，总套现规模约1.047亿美元，平均交易价格为63957美元。这一售价远低于公司75419美元的整体持仓平均成本，相当于每枚比特币账面亏损约11462美元，属于典型的"亏本减持"。 本次交易完成后，公司仍持有84.2万枚比特币，占当前比特币总流通量的4%，依旧是全球持有比特币数量最多的上市企业。 资金用途与配套操作 本次出售所得的资金被精准拆分使用： 约5240万美元用于支付公司A类永续优先股（STRC）的股息 剩余约5230万美元用于回购处于折价状态的STRC优先股 同期公司还通过市价发行计划出售了301万余股普通股，净募资约2.9亿美元，其中大部分资金用于充实美元储备，最终将公司的现金储备提升至40亿美元，能够覆盖超过12个月的股息和利息支出。 本次减持的特殊背景 这是Strategy自6月底启动减持计划$ETH At the end of June, it hit a low of 1,512, which was truly a deep drop
Then a pretty decent rebound began, rising all the way to 1,981, up nearly 30%
During that period, the moving averages also formed a bullish alignment, showing good momentum
But by mid to late July, it hit 1,981 and couldn't go up; after a brief touch, it turned back down. Why?
Looking overhead, the MA120 is near 1,980, which coincides with the previous high of 1,981. When these two are combined, the pressure is extremely high
In the past ten days or so, ETH has been grinding between 1,850 and 1,900
If it drops too much, the MA30 (1,866) is just a bit supported; if it rises, it gets knocked down again
Today's daily candlestick closed at 1,904, climbing back above the MA5, MA10, and MA20, indicating a short-term recovery
But the problem is—the volume is average, and the trading volume below hasn't increased much compared to a few days agoETH took a long position at 1896.
This order actually follows the previous short order logic.
The short position at 1908 had already reached 1872. After the short-term downside was realized, I didn't continue to chase short at the low level. Instead, I waited for the price to return to the support zone and confirmed it hadn't broken further, then tried a long spot at 1896.
Stop loss set at 1888
Take profit in 1913
The logic is simple:
✔ The previous round of short profits has already been released
✔ Support remains near 1870, with no effective breakout
✔ The price has recovered above 1890, with short-term expectations of a rebound after the decline
✔ Entered at 1896, not very high, and stop-loss is relatively easy to control
This order is currently just a rebound near the support level and does not mean the trend has completely reversed.
If the previous low is broken again, it means the support has failed, so stop loss when necessary; If it can hold above 1900, then see if the rebound can continue upward.
Short when it should have been before, now that it has fallen near support, they are willing to try going long in a different direction.
Trading isn't about always being bearish or always bullish, but about planning accordingly as the price moves.After $SPCX plunged 13.61% in a single day and closed at $108.27, the options market showed an even more alarming signal — over 50,000 put options expiring this Friday are concentrated at the $100 strike price. Around $100, the market is already loaded with gunpowder; will this become the breakout point accelerating the decline, or the rebound floor after the bad news is fully priced in? 1. Why $100? This is no coincidence. The latest options data shows that the open interest for $100 puts expiring this Friday has reached 50,158 contracts, while calls at the same strike are only 4,655, pushing the put/call ratio at this single strike to 10.78:1. 50,000 puts correspond to about 5 million shares of $SPCX spot positions. Calculated at yesterday's closing price, $100 is only about 7.6% away from the current price. This means $100 is no longer just an ordinary psychological round number. It is the price where position protection, naked short trades, and market maker hedging collide:  Shareholders holding stock buy puts here as downside insurance  Shorts bet on a breakdown and sharp decline here  Market makers hedge risk exposure here But to be clear: more puts ≠ everyone is naked shorting. Open interest only tells us where the chips are concentrated; it does not directly prove everyone is bearish — there may also be institutions placing orders to take positions or executing combination strategies. 2. The real risk: the decline becomes self-fulfilling. Options are not prophecy, but under extreme positioning, they can directly drive spot prices. Suppose these puts are mainly held bySanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations, but why did the stock price drop?
SanDisk's latest earnings report was impressive, with quarterly revenue reaching $8.97 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $39.25, both surpassing market expectations.
The core driving force behind this remains the expansion of AI infrastructure, rapid growth in high-end storage demand, and data center business becoming a key growth focus.
However, the stock price pulled back after the earnings release, mainly because the market had already priced in the AI storage growth expectations in advance.
SanDisk's stock price has surged significantly this year, and investors' expectations for future growth have become increasingly high. When the company's guidance for the next quarter did not clearly exceed these very high expectations, capital chose to take profits.
From a long-term perspective, the demand for data storage in the AI era is still in an expansion phase. Cloud computing, AI servers, and data center construction will continue to drive growth in the NAND and storage markets. The stock price may need to digest high valuation pressure in the short term, but if AI capital expenditures continue to remain strong, SanDisk still has growth potential.
At present, SanDisk appears to have strong fundamentals, but the market's overly high expectations have led to a short-term adjustment trend.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Gold is strongly rising, so why is BTC absent?
Recently, gold has been bullish due to multiple positive factors resonating together: cooling employment, falling Middle East oil prices, continuous central bank gold purchases, and a technical oversold rebound.
However, caution is needed regarding tonight's non-farm payroll data risk: if the data exceeds expectations strongly, rate cut expectations may reverse, and gold prices could spike and then pull back.
Strategically, do not blindly chase the rally; mainly buy on dips supported by support levels, and strictly control risk.
In contrast, BTC has not followed the rise mainly because it is still a risk asset with insufficient safe-haven qualities; it lacks central bank-level buying endorsement; and after the halving benefits have been realized, capital enthusiasm has cooled. Currently, it only slightly relates to rate cut logic and is much less elastic than gold. Before the non-farm data, it is recommended to operate gold with light positions and watch BTC for now, prioritizing risk control. $BTC #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Fear 25 times: BTC holding high OI—where did the money go?
BTC rose slightly by 0.76%, but the fear of 25 shows what everyone is afraid of
The funding rate dropped to 0.002%, indicating that neither the bulls nor bears were excessively leveraged
High OI 107145 ten thousand BTC, low turnover at 9.9%, indicating waiting for favorable winds
The knockoff GRVT fell 14%, XSPCX dropped 11.7%, causing a bloodbath
Why? The narrative of US stock tokens linking AI and semiconductors has collapsed
The money likely flows into BTC as a safe haven or to escape
Previously, I lost 7.53% on the long GRVT SL, taking the Flying Knife lesson
Currently, short GRVT @0.28417 is waiting for a rebound short
XSPCX short is down 0.08%, continuing to wait for a rebound
What should be done? Wait and see the liquidation wave or follow the bears?
Is this rebound an opportunity or a trap? 💀📢 ETH Evening Key News Summary + Market Analysis
1. Core News Aspects
1. Capital signals: The US Ethereum spot ETF ended its consecutive outflows, seeing a large net inflow. BlackRock ETHA became the main buying force, and institutional funds returned to ETH. Large asset management ETFs continue to pledge their ETH holdings on the Beacon Chain, causing circulating tokens to shrink and increasing long-term lock-up demand.
2. On-chain Trends: BitMine continues to increase its ETH holdings, approaching 6 million tokens, becoming the largest corporate holder of Ethereum; The total staking volume continues to rise, with over 32% of ETH across the network being staked. The community's new proposal EIP-8361 continues to be discussed, aiming to adjust additional issuance and burn based on staking ratios, aiming to reshape the ETH scarcity narrative over the long term.
3. Market characteristics: ETH is significantly more elastic than BTC, but the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still fluctuating at low levels. This is a structure where Ethereum is independently recovering and Bitcoin is weak in follow-up; this market persistence requires ongoing incremental validation.
4. Derivatives signals: A large amount of trapped interest is accumulating in the 1980–2000 range above, with large short positions in the short term; Whales are placing batches of orders near 1850 below.
2. Key locations in the evening
Pressure above:
1928 → 1950 → 1982 (Strong Divide)
Support below:
1880 (short-term strength and weakness) → 1855 → 1820
3. Market Forecasting
In the short term, relying on support at 1880, maintain a bullish outlook, with the target first in the 1928–1950 range.
⚠️ Key Risks:
If the attempt to break through the 1982 high with increased volume is not possible, and a large amount of unwinding selling pressure emerges, the market is very likely to return to a wide range of consolidation within a range.
Strategically, avoid chasing high resistance levels, focus on pullbacks and low support levels, strictly control leverage, and avoid overnight heavy positions.
4. Summary
The return of institutional funds is an important positive signal, but it is currently a recovery of existing players.
Key Indicator: Can the ETH/BTC exchange rate hold and recover? Only a stronger exchange rate will drive widespread gains in the knockoff sector; With the exchange rate remaining weak, the market will only see sporadic individual currency pulses, making it difficult to form a comprehensive rally.
Patiently wait for direction selection; during a volatile market, controlling your position is far more important than frequent trading.
#ETH #行情分析 #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC, nature not disclosed$DOGE $SNDK $XAU SanDisk SNDK has still become my ATM$SNDK
Publicly share the reasons for SanDisk's current pullback, the method for taking short positions, and the points below for 🔥 positioning long positions
I'm Ci Ge, short at 1337.26, now around 1212, with unrealized profit exceeding 120 points. The logic of this order has been thoroughly validated by the market.
SanDisk dropped from 1480 to 1212—what happened?
After the market closed on August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026:
· Revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, exceeding the expected $8.39 billion
· Adjusted EPS was $39.25, 135 times the $0.29 a year ago, exceeding expectations by more than 10%
· Gross margin reached a record high of 84.6%.
· Data center business annual revenue surged 437%
· The board approved an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization, bringing the total buyback to $15.5 billion
The numbers are flawless. But during regular trading, it has dropped 5.4%, and after hours, it dropped nearly 8% to $1,248.
The blowback for stock prices is the Q1 guidance for fiscal year 2027:
· Revenue guidance is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a median of $10.55 billion, below FactSet's expected $10.8 billion
· EPS guidance is $44 to $46, with the market expectation average at $44.72
· Gross margin guidance was roughly flat quarter-on-quarter, showing signs of peaking
Citi lowered its target price from $2,500 to $2,100. Western Digital fell more than 11% in after-hours trading, SK Hynix dropped over 9%, dragging the entire storage sector down. SanDisk's guidance was below expectations, and the core reason was that its "bright past" was insufficient to offset a "less impressive future."
How to take a short position at 1337.26
The earnings report has already been released, but the negatives of guidance below expectations are still fermenting, and sector-linked sell-offs are still spreading. However, the short-term decline is already significant and requires orderly management.
Moving stop loss. Stop loss moves down from above the open position to 1300. Current prices of 1212 and 1300 mean that even if you rebound, you still have more than 30 points of profit. The 1-hour 1270 support level has been effectively broken and turned into strong resistance; 1300 is a reasonable stop loss.
Take profits in batches. First target: 1150 to 1180, close out 30% of your position. Second target: 1080 to 1100, close another 30%. Third target: 1000 to 1020, close the remaining 40%.
Conditions for adding positions. If the price rebounds to the 1250 to 1270 range and the price shrinks and stagnates (the 1-hour moving average bearish alignment has already formed), increase short positions, with an overall stop-loss set at 1300. If volume directly drops below 1150, add more short positions, move the stop loss up to 1200, target 1080.
Exit conditions. If the price breaks through 1300 with increased volume and holds steady, it means the negative news in the earnings report has been digested, and all short positions have been exited. When the price reaches the target level between 1000 and 1020, close all positions without greeding for the last segment.
Why do you want to position long positions on 1088?
Technical Perspective: 1088 is a cluster of multiple support points
It fell from the historical high of 2354 to 998, a drop of nearly 58%. 1088 closely follows the trend lifeline of 998, making it the last offensive ground for bears and the position where bulls are most likely to organize a counterattack. 1244 is an important Fibonacci retracement level, while below 942 is the 0.786 retracement level, which led to a strong rebound in late July. 1088 is between 998 and 1244, forming the core area of a chip concentration zone. There is a short-term oversold price within the 1-hour period, indicating a slight need for a rebound and recovery. Daily trading volume has started to increase significantly, indicating capital support at low levels.
Fundamentals: The fundamental demand for AI storage has not collapsed
Goldman Sachs maintains a $2,200 target price, based on a 20x P/E ratio multiplied by normalized EPS of $110. Evercore ISI maintains an outperformers rating. The 23 analysts' average target price is $2,179, still 61% upside from the current price. The expected P/E ratio for 2026 is about 20.7 times, and about 6.3 times for 2027. Capacity is fully sold out in 2026, with bookings in 2027 booming. NAND spot prices rose 60% to 75% quarter-over-quarter.
How to get a 1088 long order?
Entry positions: Gradually build positions from 1080 to 1100, with a total position of 10% to 15%, leverage not exceeding 3x.
Stop loss is set below 950. 942 is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level; a break below would mean the most pessimistic scenario has emerged.
Take profit is divided into three batches. The first batch is 1240 to 1260, 30% is down; the second is 1350 to 1380, 30%; the third batch is 1450 to 1480, the remaining 40% is all closed.
Moving stop loss. For every 100-point price increase, the stop loss is moved up by 50 points. At 1200, the stop loss is moved from 950 up to 1000, and by 1300, from 1000 up to 1050.
Bottom line
The 1337 short position is already verifying the direction, moving stop-loss to lock in profits, taking partial profits and swing trading. 1088 long position is waiting for an oversold rebound opportunity, not chasing on highs. The two directions are not contradictory: short positions land first, long positions enter later.
That's all for Brother Ci. Take a closer look. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorization #Circle财报后押注Arc Can USDC see new growth? #财报观察员: Mixed results, unlocking imminent! What is SpaceX's outlook going forward? $ETH $BTC $UB 最近这段时间上下震荡特别大。 今天，它又涨上去了。 我对它能够反弹上去并不意外，甚至于说在意料之中。 我之前是在跌下去之后做多了，然后也是吃到了一点。 现在，我并不是很看好它的走势了。 $UB 可能要跌了。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，它的合约持仓量是呈现先上升后下降的趋势。 在今天中午的时候，它的合约持仓量和多空比是同步上升的，说明当时是有很多人在做多的。 之后，它也确确实实反弹上来了。 反弹的过程中，它的合约多空比是一路下降的，对应的合约持仓量也是在下降的。 也就是说，在反弹的过程中，很多多头已经止盈了。 在涨上去进入震荡期之后，它的合约多空是要比原来的低的，但是它的合约持仓量并没有原来那么低。 我推断，应该是在上涨的过程中有许多的空头积累。 再加上它目前依然处于高位，所以我个人认为$UB 后续会下行。 —————————————————— 今天观察市场的时候，我发现已经有很多资金在出走了。 市场的流动性是在越来越少的，这就意味着，市场可能要引了一次暴跌了，现在可能还没有到熊市最底部。 我等会发一篇文章来讲一下我对现在的看法，我$CORE What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short-term: KuCoin's suspension of withdrawals on August 7 is the biggest surprise. Big players are accelerating their withdrawal, and Dog Farm will take advantage of every small rebound to sell off.
Mid-term: Gate analysts provide a roadmap—"After a technical correction, Core will break through $0.023 again, then gradually break through $0.05, and once it breaks through $0.08, it could reach $0.14." But the premise is SatPay being fully implemented and generating real income.
The last line: BTCFi narrative, non-custodial staking, SatPay—the story is very sexy. But KuCoin delisting, 40% of tokens unlocked, SatPay still in beta, whale fleeing—all four minemines are right there. At 0.02013, you might think you're bottom-fishing, but in reality, you're just taking over the unlocked 40% of tokens. Hold your hands—wait until all the negative news from KuCoin's delisting has been exhausted, wait for SatPay to truly land, and when the direction becomes clear, then make your move! Remember, staying in the crypto world longer is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!Who knows when Ethereum will be able to drop below 1200? Looking forward to #SanDisk's earnings double beat expectations, $14 billion new buyback authorization #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC see new growth? #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC followed the rise? $BTC $ETH $SNDK 霍尔木兹海峡要“松口”了？原油多头先别急着庆祝！
伊朗与阿曼近日就霍尔木兹海峡航线地理坐标达成初步共识，双方联合声明已进入最后确认阶段。
消息一出，市场迅速解读为中东局势有望缓和，航运风险下降，国际油价随即承压。毕竟霍尔木兹海峡承担着全球大量原油运输，一旦航线恢复稳定，油轮绕行、运输延误以及保险成本都有望回落，对油价形成一定压制。
不过，目前协议仍未正式落地。
伊朗方面明确表示，航线坐标达成一致，并不意味着海峡安全问题已经解决。
后续航线管理、通行费用以及第三方介入等关键细节仍有待协商，未来依然存在不少变数。
对于市场而言，这更像是风险情绪有所降温，而非风险彻底解除。
短期来看，国际原油可能面临供应风险溢价回吐，前期追涨资金或选择获利了结；黄金等避险资产也可能受到一定压制。但如果后续谈判再次陷入僵局，或霍尔木兹海峡出现新的摩擦事件，油价和黄金的避险溢价仍有可能迅速回归。
对于币圈来说，地缘政治降温通常有助于提升市场风险偏好。 若油价回落、避险情绪降温，BTC、ETH 等风险资产有望获得一定情绪支撑；但如果中东局势再度升级，全球资金可能重新流向黄金、美元等避险资产，币圈短线也将面临一定抛压。
接下来最值得关注的，仍是联合声明何时正式公布，以及伊朗最终能够获得多大的航线管理权。
霍尔木兹海峡一天没有彻底恢复稳定，全球能源市场和风险资产都难言真正解除警报。#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 失业金又硬了！沃什手里的加息筹码多了一颗！
美国至8月1日当周初请失业金人数录得19.9万人，低于预期的20.2万，显示劳动力市场依旧坚挺。挑战者企业裁员人数也从4.58万降至3.34万——没人失业，通胀怎么下来？
上周沃什刚说了“通胀强就9月加息”，今天就业数据直接给鹰派递刀。数据公布后美元走高，大饼承压回吐涨幅。这种“好数据=坏消息”的剧本，币圈应该很熟了。
散户别头铁。非农前任何反弹都是诱多，仓位压住、杠杆降下来。数据越漂亮，镰刀越锋利——等周五非农落地再动，不差这一天。#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 The biggest unlocking in US stock market history is here! SpaceX released 900 million shares today, doubling the free float
Today (August 6), up to 911.5 million shares held by SpaceX employees and pre-IPO shareholders were officially unlocked.
Based on the August 5 closing price of $108.27, these stocks are worth about $98.7 billion. Based on the August 4th closing price of $125.33, that's $114 billion.
No matter which method is used, this is the largest lock-up period unlocking in the history of the U.S. capital market.
Here are a few key numbers—get a feel for them first:
SpaceX currently has only 639 million shares in circulation. The 911.5 million shares unlocked today are 1.43 times the current outstanding shares.
After the lock-up, tradable shares increased from 639 million shares to a maximum of 1.55 billion shares.
But this is just the beginning. By early December this year, the number of circulating shares will surge to 5.33 billion, more than eight times the current number.
What is the biggest difference between SpaceX and other IPO companies?
Most companies unlock all shares at once after IPO, once the lock-up period ends. But SpaceX did a nine-stage phased release.
Today's release is the first batch — 20% of the 180-day lock-up period. Then on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26, each release will be an additional 7%. After the Q3 financial report, another 28% will be released. The remaining shares will be fully unlocked on December 8.
Baillie Gifford's fund manager put it in a particularly apt way: "We have never seen such an arrangement, never seen an unlock of this scale, and never seen a phased lock-up period like this. We are in uncharted territory. ”
Will these stocks be sold?
Not necessarily. Unlocking does not equal selling.
But the question is—who holds these stocks? What are their costs?
A year ago, SpaceX's private equity valuation was only about $400 billion. After completing the acquisition of xAI this year, its overall valuation has reached $1 trillion.
Even though the stock price has dropped nearly 50% from its peak, early investors and employees still have huge paper gains.
Renaissance Capital analysts put it bluntly: "Employees and early investors find it hard to resist selling opportunities because they hold huge returns and are strongly motivated to realize returns and diversify their holdings." ”
More importantly, some early investors want to cash out not for consumption—but to buy private equity in other companies, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril. This money doesn't stay in the account; it flows directly to the next table.
So what is really happening today?
U.S. Stock Investment Network believes this is not an ordinary lock-up. It is a supply-side tsunami.
At the time of its IPO, SpaceX's outstanding shares accounted for less than 5% of its total equity, and its scarcity supported its valuation.
Starting today, this scarcity is being systematically dismantled. And the bears have long been in position—currently about 30%-35% of tradable shares have been shorted, with shorts making a book profit of about $7 billion.
$SPCX $TSLA $SNDK $AMD $MSFT #美股Gold has surged for several consecutive days, with intraday gold prices directly breaking through the $4,300 mark, silver breaking above $62, and COMEX gold futures reaching a high of $4,267 (intraday gain of over 3%).
The direct trigger for this surge was ADP employment data, which fell far short of expectations: U.S. private sector jobs added only 44,000 in July, far below the market forecast of 65,000–75,000. The poor employment situation directly dampened rate hike expectations, causing both the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall simultaneously, while gold and silver surged accordingly.
Meanwhile, $BTC continued to consolidate sideways near $64,000, rising only slightly by less than 1% during the day, barely moving at all.
This raises a core question: if $BTC is truly so-called "digital gold," why does gold surge by 3%, while $BTC act as if nothing happened?
In fact, although $BTC and gold maintained a significant positive correlation in the first half of last year, by this year, the two have completely turned negative. Gold has risen 9% for the year, while $BTC has fallen 11%. Deutsche Bank analysts bluntly stated that $BTC "no longer possess digital gold attributes," and Peter Schiff sharply pointed out that the correlation between the two has never truly existed.
Market data doesn't lie, $BTC What assets are currently being traded?
Following the US stock market? The S&P and Nasdaq are both volatile and upward, but $BTC have been slow to follow.
Following ETF funds? On Tuesday, the net inflow reached $211.5 million, and prices remained uneventful.
Following the geopolitical situation? Although the US-Iran negotiations have made progress, the market has also responded lukewarmly.
Currently, $BTC's true state is: there is support below but it cannot fall, above selling pressure it cannot rise, and it is consolidating at $64,000 to wait for the real catalyst—whether it's rate cuts, regulatory policy finalizations, or top institutional interventions. But one thing is certain: it will never blindly follow gold prices upward.
By 2026, the narrative of "digital gold" is becoming increasingly untenable. This is not a denial of $BTC's long-term value, but rather that its underlying pricing logic has completely diverged from gold: gold trades on interest rate expectations and safe-haven attributes, while $BTC trades on macro liquidity, regulatory environment, and its own cyclical rhythm.
Next time someone tries to fool you with the 'digital gold' trick, just throw yesterday's candlestick in their face: gold surged 3%, $BTC pretended dead at 64,000. The market has already given the most genuine answer.
$BTC XAUSNDK #Gold4200BTCStalls #BTC为何没跟涨 #加密货币 #宏观经济 #市场分析
#DailyOrbit The most common mistake in tonight's market might not be looking in the wrong direction, but losing patience during the day due to a few small candlesticks. By the time real volatility arrives, both the position and mindset are already in turmoil. As of the time of writing, $BTC is around $64,400, $ETH has just returned to $1,900, $SOL is about $73.2, BNB is at $592, and XRP is about $1.05. The total crypto market capitalization has rebounded to $2.29 trillion, but BTC's market share remains at 56.6%, indicating that funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin and a few mainstream coins, and fake coins haven't truly revived. August 7 may still be a daytime delay, but the real wait is at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time. The U.S. will release its July nonfarm payroll report. Last month, only 57,000 new jobs were added, significantly below expectations, and April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. Some institutions now set their July job growth forecast at around 100,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The trouble lies here. If the nonfarm payrolls are too strong, the market will worry that rate hike expectations will continue to heat up, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to push higher, with BTC taking the hit first; Numbers around 100,000 may actually be the most comfortable outcome: the economy hasn't suddenly stalled, and salary pressure hasn't spiraled out of control again; If the data is extremely poor, BTC may not keep rising; it might first trade "policy easing" in the first few minutes, then start worrying about recession. So don't just focus on the news headline tomorrow night. The data is positive, but BTC can't break through $65,000. I won't chase this kind of rise. Conversely, the data is biasedThese two financial reports have diverged market trends.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another all-time high, closing up 0.49%.
The Nasdaq Composite ended a four-day winning streak, falling 0.83%.
The S&P 500 sits somewhere in between: it opened higher but ended down 0.17%.
Both companies' earnings exceeded expectations, but their stock prices were sold off.
SpaceX's first earnings report after going public exceeded expectations, but its stock price closed down 13.61%, as the market focused more on spending pressures from its AI investment.
AMD fell 7.04% because the market had already priced in an "extremely stunning" performance, not just an excellent earnings report.
Capital shifted to other market directions:
Shopify rose 16.98% on the earnings report.
Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals rose 4.86%.
Disney rose 3.65%.
Nvidia bucked the trend and rose 3.43%, not following the chip sector's decline.
In today's market, the focus is not on whether the market is rising or falling.
Instead, look at:
Where the funds are being withdrawn.
Where the funds flow.
And the reasons behind it.
This is the real skill needed for training in real-time market data. #财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? $BONK 做空策略（当前胜率最高）：反弹到0.00000285-0.00000290且成交量萎缩，止损0.00000300上方，目标先看0.00000270，跌破看0.00000250-0.00000260。杠杆2倍，仓位1-2%。
做多策略（刀尖舔血）：等两个信号：①价格在0.00000255-0.00000265区间放量企稳；②黑客砸盘彻底结束、Kraken恢复充提。入场0.00000255-0.00000265，止损0.00000240下方，目标0.00000285-0.00000290。仓位≤1%。
最稳策略（绝对观望）：一个被黑客掏空财库的币、一个被两大交易所警示/暂停的币、一个全网负费率空头狂欢的币——你凭什么觉得现在是底？ But you protected it #ADP Employment cooled down, and Fed policy divisions intensified SpaceX's first financial report shows revenue surged about 92% year-on-year, but AI-related capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion, most of which is used for AI computing infrastructure. The company plans to expand AI computing power from about 2GW by the end of 2026 to nearly 10GW by the end of 2027, and plans to lease computing power to external customers in the future. Meanwhile, the initial lock-up period for the IPO has expired, with over 900 million shares tradable, further intensifying stock price volatility.
Recently, I increasingly feel that the AI market has entered its second phase.
In the first stage, whoever announces AI investment will see the price rise; Now, entering the second phase, the market begins to ask: When will you recoup the hundreds of billions you spent?
AMD, WDC, Sandisk, and even SpaceX all show one thing: AI demand is fine, but valuations can no longer be "almost."
Those that can truly weather cycles are often those companies with orders that can also deliver profits.
#AI #美股 #NVDA #MRVL #半导体$BONK Five hidden currents, all cut off retail investors!
Conspiracy One: Hackers 'Governance Attack' Steals Treasury, Openly Selling Shares! On July 6, hackers directly took 4.426 trillion BONK (about $21.2 million) from Bonk's treasury through a governance proposal. Then, like assembly line workers, they transferred money daily to Binance and Coinbase—yesterday 1.186 trillion, today 400 billion. The hacker has already cleared out, pouring the last 400 billion ($1.17 million) into Coinbase.
Conspiracy 2: Kraken suspends deposits and withdrawals, Upbit placed on warning list! Kraken Exchange has temporarily suspended BONK deposit and withdrawal services. Upbit has listed BONK as a trading warning coin, and deposit functions have been suspended. The exchange has begun to draw clear boundaries.
Controversy 3: Funding rates across the entire network are negative, and bears are celebrating! Binance's funding rate is -5.30 bps (annualized -58%), and OKX is even lower by -12.00 bps (annualized -131%). Short positions not only don't cost money, but also collect money. Of all 23 exchanges online, most are in negative rate ranges.
Controversy 4: Open interest at 57M, bears keep adding up! Total net holding across the network is $57.43M**, with Binance alone accounting for $15.34M. Such large open interest and such negative fees mean the bears are continuously adding positions.
Conspiracy 5: Robinhood Chain's narrative is "someone else's good news"! On July 21, Circus Trade launched a launch platform on Robinhood Chain, and BONK's official Twitter reposted it. But Robinhood Chain uses Uniswap as its native DEX, which has nothing to do with BONK. They can't even get caught up in the hype.The South Korean stock market fell 4.5% in one day, with semiconductors dragging the market down
The Korean stock market crashed again today, with the KOSPI dropping 4.58% to close at 6,296 points, down more than 300 points in one day.
Foreign investors net sold 3.97 trillion won, institutions net sold 235.7 billion won, and retail investors alone held 4.1 trillion won in buying, but still couldn't hold on. Semiconductors were the hardest-hit sector, with SK Hynix dropping 10 points and Samsung Electronics down 6.3%. Overnight, US tech stocks weakened, and foreign investors started selling early, never stopping at the open.
This scene is all too familiar: foreign capital flees, institutions flee, retail investors take in the profits, and the next day the price keeps falling. Previously, Goldman Sachs called it cheap, CITIC said leverage hadn't been cleared yet, but now it seems CITIC's version of the scenario is much more realistic. Retail investors' liquidation rate is still between 7% and 8%, far above normal. Before leverage is fully de-absorbed, rebounds are likely to be driven back.
Secondary batteries are doing okay, LG Energy Solution rose 2.8%, POSCO edged up, and funds shifted from semiconductors to other directions. But compared to the semiconductor decline, this increase is just a drop in the bucket.
In the short term, South Korea's market still depends on the US stock market. If the Nasdaq is unstable, foreign investors won't stop. If you want to buy the dip, don't rush to buy in all at once. First, see if US stocks are stable tonight, then see if foreign capital will run tomorrow. South Korea's valuation is indeed cheap, but cheap assets can be even cheaper, especially before the chip structure is stableThe fourth elixir of gold within the sun
Entered at 4279.48, exited at 4260.85, Lo took 18.63 classic!
Grocery collection was $3,726
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? 🔸HyperEVM's USDC Explodes +US$5.6 Billion in a Year Nearly Matching Ethereum. $ETH
USDC capitalization growth per chain in the past year: Ethereum still leads with +US$7.5 billion, but HyperEVM (Hyperliquid's chain) closely follows with +US$5.6 billion, far surpassing Base which only has +US$373 million.
The trigger: On June 20, 2026, Hyperliquid $HYPE officially dissolved their own native stablecoin ($USDH) and fully consolidated into USDC, with a single Circle transfer to a Coinbase-related address moving over US$4 billion USDC to HyperEVM at once—one of the largest stablecoin transfers ever recorded.
What’s unique about this deal: USDC on Hyperliquid is now designated as an "Aligned Quote Asset," where Circle and Coinbase are required to share ~90% of the T-bill yield reserve back to Hyperliquid, an economic model that reverses the conventional stablecoin operation where usually the entire yield reserve is controlled by the issuer.
🔸What’s the Impact on the Crypto Market?
This shows crypto liquidity is increasingly concentrated on on-chain venues with real trading activity (Hyperliquid's perp open interest is already above US$10 billion), not just general chains.
This revenue share model also has the potential to set a precedent for other major venues to demand similar terms from stablecoin issuers, which could change the economics of the entire stablecoin industry going forward.
#HYPEStressTest #HyperliquidPayout $SKHYNIX US memory sector is expected to continue a sharp decline before the market opens!
The three giants Micron, Hynix, and SanDisk are very likely to fall further.
Previously marked resistance level at 1211, yesterday the market surged to 1196, then quickly retreated near the resistance, the entire memory sector is weakening in sync.
US stock market is about to open, the three major memory stocks' rebound attempts are weak; aggressive traders can consider entering with light positions at the current level, while conservative ones can wait for a higher rebound.
Sister Shan's target price is 1000🔥🔥🔥Analyzing SHOPUSDT (such as Bybit's recently launched 25x leveraged perpetual contract), its core features are high elasticity and strong volatility. In the early stages of new coin launches, liquidity often has a vacuum, which can easily trigger intense double kills between long and short. For short-term traders, this is an excellent hunting ground to capture micro-level price differences and sentiment premiums; However, due to a lack of deep fundamental consensus, blindly chasing high prices or heavy positions easily inherits liquidity risks. Strict risk control and quick entry and exit are essential. $SHOP Should you buy gold at $4,270?
The most direct trigger yesterday was the preliminary agreement between Iran and Oman on the shipping corridor. Trump stated that the talks were "progressing smoothly," causing oil prices to plunge 5%+ in a single day.
Oil prices fall, inflation expectations drop, the probability of rate cuts rises, the dollar weakens—gold takes off directly
Let's look at the surface first: all the positive news is bombarding, and prices are ridiculously tough.
Yesterday, it rose nearly 5% in a single day, rising directly from 4077 to 4270+, marking the largest single-day gain in recent months. After surging to 4304 today, it pulled back and is currently consolidating near 4260. Gold broke above the upper boundary of the range of the past six weeks (resistance zone between 4180 and 4225) and climbed above the 50-day moving average, signaling a structural change and confirming a bottom reversal.
First thing: progress in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices crashed, and gold exploded
The most direct trigger yesterday was the preliminary agreement between Iran and Oman on the shipping corridor. Trump stated that the talks were "progressing smoothly," causing oil prices to plunge 5%+ in a single day.
Oil prices fall, inflation expectations drop, the probability of rate cuts rises, the dollar weakens—gold takes off instantly. The logic is as clear as a textbook.
But the question is: how fragile is this positive news? Any rebound in Hormuz or any rebound in oil prices could make up half of yesterday's gains. A smooth deal is a good thing; a failed deal is an even bigger one.
The second thing: ADP is ridiculously weak, and the non-farm payrolls are the real judges
July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, far below the expected 70,000. Clear signs of a cooling labor market are clear, with the market directly interpreting this as "the Fed can cut rates."
But Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real judges. ADP and nonfarms often don't align. If Friday's nonfarm payrolls prove themselves wrong (like far exceeding expectations), gold might go back to where it came from.
The third thing: the central bank buys gold, which is gold's strongest backing
In Q2, global central banks' net gold purchases were about 289 tons, a year-on-year surge of 62%, marking a record strong quarter. South Korea resumed gold purchases after 13 years, while China continued to increase holdings.
This is the core support of gold's long-term narrative: de-dollarization is not just a slogan—it's real money buying.
However, this round of rally is more driven by short closing and closing positions, not genuine buying continuationBreaking news! With the launch of Oman Airlines in Iran, this round of geopolitical market has truly reached a turning point
#伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
After a long time in trading, my deepest insight is: in geopolitical markets, always hype up 'expectations,' not 'facts.'
Recently, the entire internet has been flooded with news that Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary consensus on general aviation, with many people blindly bearish on oil prices and optimistic about supply and demand.
But I want to say something honest: the focus of market competition now is no longer news, but the realization rate of implementation.
What level is the Strait of Hormuz?
The lifeblood of global crude oil transportation and the biggest geopolitical risk source disrupting the market this year. Previously, oil prices remained firm and market risk premiums remained high, essentially due to unstable shipping channels and the situation erupting at any time.
But with the general aviation agreement nearing implementation, the logic has changed dramatically:
If a formal agreement is finalized and shipping resumes normalization, it would mean that the temporary risk aversion sentiment in the Middle East has completely faded.
This is the biggest market variable:
1. Oil prices will be the first to come under pressure and fall, with geopolitical risk premiums quickly clearing out;
2. Global risk market sentiment is warming, safe-haven assets are cooling down, and risk assets are entering a window of recovery;
3. The expected gap in shipping and energy supply chains will be repriced.
A common pitfall for many retail investors is reacting only after seeing the news, unaware that the main players had already anticipated trading in advance.
My trading habits have always been clear: uncertain geopolitical factors, tightening pace, reducing positions; Geopolitical landing: follow trends and grasp certainty.
When the situation is turbulent, any rally can be crushed by sudden news. I won't place aggressive orders; But once such key general aviation agreements are implemented, it will mark the end of the phase of chaos, the market will return to normal fundamental logic, and the trading rhythm can be clearly relaxed.
Finally, to summarize the core judgment: the biggest beneficiary of this round of events is not crude oil short positions, but a recovery in overall risk sentiment. Rather than focusing on oil price fluctuations, I will focus more on whether the market's risk aversion has completely faded. This is the core factor affecting all market sessions.
Market trends never rely on imagination; they rely on early prediction of event logic.
$CL This whale, which once topped Hyperliquid with $920 million in short positions, is continuously increasing its short positions on MU, as if the size of the chips is its true belief. Abraxas Capital's main address recently increased its holdings in MU short positions by 536.66 units, with the current MU short position size expanding to about $4.917 million, and the average position price at about $879.91. Compared to the average opening price, MU's current price is about $855.60, which is below the cost of holding a position. On paper, this short position has entered a floating profit state—compared to the previous situation on August 5, when MU was about $884 and the position was slightly at a loss, the trend has reversed. Based on historical records, Abraxas Capital has repeatedly engaged in swing trading on MU short positions: on August 4, it reduced its holdings by about 597 MU short positions to take profits of approximately $693,000, then two days later increased by 650.50 short positions, indicating it was not a single bet but repeatedly operating within MU's price range. From an overall strategy perspective, this address uses short selling as its core tactic. The total scale of multi-currency short positions once reached $920 million, with funding fee settlement alone earning about $33.83 million, and a full-cycle profit of $301 million. Its profit model relies on position size, funding rate yields, and time structure, rather than simply betting on direction. MU's current price is below its latest average short position opening price. This whale, accustomed to making money through scale, may have entered its most familiar rhythm. $#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
SanDisk's financial report left me jaw-dropping 🤯
Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, while market expectations were only about 8.6 billion; Adjusted EPS was 39.25, expected 34.37—beating the previous average. Gross margin 84.6%, data center revenue +1298% year-on-year—AI is a data giant that truly makes a living.
Even worse, the board just approved an additional 14 billion yuan buyback, with the remaining licenses piled up to 15.5 billion. Profitable → buybacks → share shrinkage→ EPS is even more explosive—is this cycle familiar to you? Bitminer buys machines with profits during a bull market, and buys its own shares with profits—similar in principle.
But after hours, it dropped more than 10% at one point...... The reason is simple: next quarter's median revenue guidance is 10.55 billion, below the market expectation of 11.16 billion. "Earnings beating expectations" is no longer enough; the market wants "guidance also beats expectations," and it's just one breath away from teaching you how to live.
So don't just focus on the NAND price hike cycle—AI storage demand is indeed squeezing capacity, but valuation expectations have also been pushed to the ceiling. The lesson of earnings season is always: buy expectations and sell facts; don't rush at the network-wide market where good news is realized.📉 Bearish logic: Does the reason for shorting really hold?
From the bears' perspective, there is indeed reasonable grounds for shorting right now.
Core Negative — No new demand: demand/issuance ratio -5.43, new output far exceeds new capital $BTC. Although the net flow of coins is negative (supply contraction), it is just a stock game without incremental funds, and prices will eventually be unable to hold up.
Federal Reserve Rate Hike Shadow: A 9:3 split vote means the probability of a rate hike cannot be ignored. Inflation remains high; if the data exceeds expectations and rate hikes materialize, risk assets will come under pressure.
Technical weakness: Mitrade analysis points out that 64,590 is resistance itself, and an RSI below 50 indicates weak momentum. The Bollinger Bands are closing and turning to the market, with bears believing the direction is downward.
Market sentiment is extremely fearful: Fear index 25, retail investors are not entering the market, and without FOMO, there is no bull market. Coinbase Premium is negative, and US institutions are not buying it.
Supply-side risks: Ancient whales awakening, 3~7-year-old coins continue to transfer to Coinbase; Mining company MARA transferred 6,000 tokens. Increased supply of old coins + weak demand = Historically flat or downward.
Bearish targets: If the first support at 63,800 is broken, target 62,000; if broken again, target 60,000; if extreme break, target 52,900 (realized price).
But bears need to be cautious: whale total holdings continue to increase, ETF inflows continue, and miner selling pressure eases—these limits the downside potential. Bears believe these are merely "bottom-holding" rather than "pushing up," so short-term trends are mainly volatile or gradual declines.
$BTC #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations #ADP就业降温, Fed policy divisions intensify. #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC followed suit? $BRKB What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short term: Most likely to fluctuate between 506 and 530. The biggest variable in the August 8 earnings report was cash reserves exceeding expectations→ boosting the market; Cash reserves decline, but large buying → may further boost the market; Buffett is short on the market → dumping the market.
Mid-term: Berkshire is a typical value investing asset, with a Beta of only 0.6. BRKBUSDT is suitable for long-term configurations and not for short-term high-frequency gambling.
Binance, Bybit, Bitget, MEXC, BitMart, OKX, and Huobi are all in one place. The more above, the better the liquidity, but short-term volatility is amplified.
The final heartfelt words:
BRKB is 523 today, with a $30 price difference among various exchanges, new contracts just launched, and Buffett's earnings countdown — all three factors come together. BRKB is the blue-chip among blue chips, but BRKBUSDT is just a toy for dog farms to draw K-lines. At the 523 level, bulls fear earnings reports crashing to 500, while bears fear Buffett will pull a big move to blow it up. Hold back, wait until the financial report hits the ground on August 8 before acting! Remember, staying long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!