Orbit Post Sitemap
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ 此前连续多月大额净流出的美BTC、ETH现货ETF迎来资金回流，机构配置情绪回暖，但本轮流入属于阶段性修复，两大币种上涨节奏存在明显分化，能否走出持续性行情仍有多重约束。
从资金逻辑来看，ETF申购会倒逼机构在现货市场买入对应币种，形成刚性买盘支撑价格，本轮贝莱德头部ETF是流入主力，短期缓解市场抛压，修复前期过度悲观的资金面。资金入场存在先后顺序：资金风险偏好修复初期，资金优先布局BTC，作为加密市场核心底仓；待行情企稳后，增量资金才会轮动至ETH，叠加RWA、链上应用叙事加持，ETH弹性往往更强。
但当前回流存在明显短板：单周净流入规模远不及此前累计流出体量，仅属于脉冲式资金进场，尚未形成连续三周以上的趋势性流入，增量资金力度偏弱。宏观层面仍存在压制，CPI、美联储加息预期、美元波动会持续干扰风险资产，一旦通胀数据走高，机构会快速收紧加密资产敞口。
后市走势分化将持续：BTC依靠ETF稳定买盘震荡筑底，具备更强抗跌性；ETH高弹性同时伴随高波动，仅在风险偏好全面宽松阶段才有超额涨幅。若ETF资金再度转流出$ETH 重大消息已出！利好？
北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，美股要迎来关键选择
本周五晚间20:30，7月非农就业报告即将出炉，这是美联储7月议息会议之后，最重要的一份就业数据，会直接改写9月利率预期，美股、美债、加密全部资产都会被牵动。
此前ADP小非农数据明显不及预期，已经提前给市场打了预防针，市场在博弈就业逐步降温。
三种数据情景对应的美股走向
情景一：非农大幅强于预期，薪资同步走高
就业火热，会推迟降息预期，美债收益率上行。高估值AI科技、存储板块承压最重，MU、SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压；道指价值蓝筹相对抗跌，整体指数会出现分化行情。
情景二：非农显著走弱，失业率抬升
市场会强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，利好科技成长股。存储、AI硬件有机会迎来修复反弹。但也要警惕一种风险：数据太差，会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，造成短期普跌。
情景三：数据和预期基本吻合
就业温和降温，不冷不热。美股延续当前撕裂格局，道指偏强，纳指高位震荡，行情回归财报逻辑，板块内部继续轮动。
抛开非农，美股本身接下来的盘面判断
1、存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡阶段。SNDK走出深V反转，但财报带来的预期下调问题没有彻底消失。后市重点盯MU关键支撑能不能守住，守住代表板块分化修复；一旦有效跌破，存储这一轮行情会进入中期估值消化，不要把超跌反弹直接当成新一轮主升浪。
2、市场结构性分化会持续上演。业绩指引超预期的标的会继续享受溢价；就算利润很高，但股东回报、未来指引保守的公司，会持续被资金抛弃。普涨行情已经结束，选股难度变大。
3、风险点依旧不能忽视，$SPCX巨额解禁压力还在，会时不时扰动盘面，放大盘中插针波动。
重点关注标的：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
动能消退、资金离场品种：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
等待信号确认观察池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
资金偏好的强势品种：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
当下市场逻辑梳理：
$BTC — 加密市场流动性中枢，决定整体盘面的冷热程度
$ETH — 机构资金持续布局，依靠震荡慢慢沉淀筹码
$SOL — Layer1赛道的弹性担当，行情启动时上涨空间可观
$TAO & $WLD — AI主线热度持续，反复得到资金的青睐
$HYPE — 市场投机情绪标尺，用来判断当下风险偏好高低
$DOGE & $ZEC — 散户情绪窗口，直观反映短线投机热度Major news has been released! Positive?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the non-farm payroll will be implemented, and US stocks are set to face a key decision
At 20:30 this Friday evening, the July nonfarm payroll report will be released. This is the most important employment data since the Federal Reserve's July meeting, and it will directly rewrite September rate expectations, affecting all assets in US stocks, Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies.
Previously, ADP's small nonfarm payroll data was clearly below expectations, giving the market an early warning as employment gradually cooled.
The three data scenarios correspond to the U.S. stock market trends
Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, and wages rise in tandem
Strong employment will delay rate cut expectations, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. High-valuation AI technology and storage sectors are under the heaviest pressure, while growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow blue chips are relatively resilient to declines, and the overall index shows divergence.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises
The market will strengthen expectations for rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields will fall, which is positive for tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware have the opportunity to see a recovery and rebound. But one risk must be watched for: if the data is too poor, it could trigger market concerns about an economic recession, leading to a short-term broad drop.
Scenario 3: Data and expectations basically match
Employment cooled mildly, neither hot nor lukewarm. U.S. stocks continue the current tear-off pattern, with the Dow slightly strong, the Nasdaq oscillating at high levels, the market returning to earnings report logic, and sector rotation continues.
Putting aside nonfarm payrolls, the U.S. stock market will be the next outlook
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility following the financial report falsification. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the issue of downward expectations brought by the earnings report has not completely disappeared. Looking ahead, focus on whether the key support in MU can be held; holding it will mean sector differentiation and recovery; Once it effectively breaks below the threshold, the current round of storage will enter a mid-term valuation digestion phase. Don't treat the oversold rebound as a new main rally.
2. Structural market differentiation will continue to unfold. Stocks whose guidance exceeds expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; Even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally has ended, making stock selection more difficult.
3. Risk points cannot be ignored. $SPCX massive unlocking pressure remains, which will occasionally disturb the market and amplify the spike volatility.
Key Targets to Watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with Weakening Momentum and Capital Exits:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation in the observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity center in the crypto market, which determines the overall temperature of the market
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to build positions, gradually accumulating shares through volatility
$SOL — The elastic role of the Layer 1 sector, with considerable upside potential at market launch
$TAO & $WLD — AI remains hot and repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — A market speculative sentiment gauge used to assess current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail investor sentiment window, intuitively reflecting short-term speculative heat重大消息已出！利好？
北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，美股要迎来关键选择
本周五晚间20:30，7月非农就业报告即将出炉，这是美联储7月议息会议之后，最重要的一份就业数据，会直接改写9月利率预期，美股、美债、加密全部资产都会被牵动。
此前ADP小非农数据明显不及预期，已经提前给市场打了预防针，市场在博弈就业逐步降温。
三种数据情景对应的美股走向
情景一：非农大幅强于预期，薪资同步走高
就业火热，会推迟降息预期，美债收益率上行。高估值AI科技、存储板块承压最重，MU、SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压；道指价值蓝筹相对抗跌，整体指数会出现分化行情。
情景二：非农显著走弱，失业率抬升
市场会强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，利好科技成长股。存储、AI硬件有机会迎来修复反弹。但也要警惕一种风险：数据太差，会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，造成短期普跌。
情景三：数据和预期基本吻合
就业温和降温，不冷不热。美股延续当前撕裂格局，道指偏强，纳指高位震荡，行情回归财报逻辑，板块内部继续轮动。
抛开非农，美股本身接下来的盘面判断
1、存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡阶段。SNDK走出深V反转，但财报带来的预期下调问题没有彻底消失。后市重点盯MU关键支撑能不能守住，守住代表板块分化修复；一旦有效跌破，存储这一轮行情会进入中期估值消化，不要把超跌反弹直接当成新一轮主升浪。
2、市场结构性分化会持续上演。业绩指引超预期的标的会继续享受溢价；就算利润很高，但股东回报、未来指引保守的公司，会持续被资金抛弃。普涨行情已经结束，选股难度变大。
3、风险点依旧不能忽视，$SPCX巨额解禁压力还在，会时不时扰动盘面，放大盘中插针波动。
重点关注标的：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
动能消退、资金离场品种：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
等待信号确认观察池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
资金偏好的强势品种：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
当下市场逻辑梳理：
$BTC — 加密市场流动性中枢，决定整体盘面的冷热程度
$ETH — 机构资金持续布局，依靠震荡慢慢沉淀筹码
$SOL — Layer1赛道的弹性担当，行情启动时上涨空间可观
$TAO & $WLD — AI主线热度持续，反复得到资金的青睐
$HYPE — 市场投机情绪标尺，用来判断当下风险偏好高低
$DOGE & $ZEC — 散户情绪窗口，直观反映短线投机热度Major news has been released! Positive?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the non-farm payroll will be implemented, and US stocks are set to face a key decision
At 20:30 this Friday evening, the July nonfarm payroll report will be released. This is the most important employment data since the Federal Reserve's July meeting, and it will directly rewrite September rate expectations, affecting all assets in US stocks, Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies.
Previously, ADP's small nonfarm payroll data was clearly below expectations, giving the market an early warning as employment gradually cooled.
The three data scenarios correspond to the U.S. stock market trends
Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, and wages rise in tandem
Strong employment will delay rate cut expectations, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. High-valuation AI technology and storage sectors are under the heaviest pressure, while growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow blue chips are relatively resilient to declines, and the overall index shows divergence.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises
The market will strengthen expectations for rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields will fall, which is positive for tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware have the opportunity to see a recovery and rebound. But one risk must be watched for: if the data is too poor, it could trigger market concerns about an economic recession, leading to a short-term broad drop.
Scenario 3: Data and expectations basically match
Employment cooled mildly, neither hot nor lukewarm. U.S. stocks continue the current tear-off pattern, with the Dow slightly strong, the Nasdaq oscillating at high levels, the market returning to earnings report logic, and sector rotation continues.
Putting aside nonfarm payrolls, the U.S. stock market will be the next outlook
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility following the financial report falsification. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the issue of downward expectations brought by the earnings report has not completely disappeared. Looking ahead, focus on whether the key support in MU can be held; holding it will mean sector differentiation and recovery; Once it effectively breaks below the threshold, the current round of storage will enter a mid-term valuation digestion phase. Don't treat the oversold rebound as a new main rally.
2. Structural market differentiation will continue to unfold. Stocks whose guidance exceeds expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; Even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally has ended, making stock selection more difficult.
3. Risk points cannot be ignored. $SPCX massive unlocking pressure remains, which will occasionally disturb the market and amplify the spike volatility.
Key Targets to Watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with Weakening Momentum and Capital Exits:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation in the observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity center in the crypto market, which determines the overall temperature of the market
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to build positions, gradually accumulating shares through volatility
$SOL — The elastic role of the Layer 1 sector, with considerable upside potential at market launch
$TAO & $WLD — AI remains hot and repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — A market speculative sentiment gauge used to assess current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail investor sentiment window, intuitively reflecting short-term speculative heat#霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？
之前吹上天的霍尔木兹海峡通航协议，到现在还没落笔。伊朗和阿曼到现在还在扯皮。
所以呢油价又弹回去了，布伦特逼近84，WTI上了78.5。
美国那边也在换口风，说特朗普现在更倾向继续施压经济，而不是动武。说白了就是打是不打了，但该卡的还得卡着。
油价一涨，通胀预期就跟着往上拱。市场刚因为非农把加息预期压下去，结果油价这边又添了把柴。如果油价继续往上走，周三CPI数据再硬一点，降息预期可能又要被打回去。
油价反弹对短期情绪是压制，但真正有波动的的还是得看周三CPI。数据出来之前，盘面大概率继续磨。
所以做好自己的最重要，不要想那么多。
$BTC $ETH $BICO #伯克希尔结束净卖出, restart large-scale allocations
Guys, Berkshire's earnings report is really interesting this time.
The most noteworthy thing is not the profit, but the action:
They finally started spending money.
In the second quarter, Berkshire's cash fell from $397.4 billion to $365.5 billion, a decrease of $31.9 billion.
For the past 14 quarters, Berkshire has been selling stocks and saving cash.
But after Buffett handed over, Abel did the opposite:
Net purchases approached $20 billion in stock, and it repurchased $4.5 billion of its own shares.
Even more outrageous, $10 billion has been poured into Google.
Google jumped straight into the top five holdings, sitting alongside Apple, American Express, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola.
Interestingly, Buffett previously admitted that missing out on Google early on was a "historic mistake."
Now, after the handover, Berkshire has actually started to buy more tickets.
Moreover, about $13.5 billion in newly increased holdings has yet to be fully disclosed. When the 13F releases on August 14, there may be some surprises.
So here's the question:
Is Buffett being too cautious, or does Abel feel that the market now presents a worthy opportunity to bet?
After all, with Berkshire's scale, buying for tens of billions is news.
This time, they directly net nearly $20 billion, at least showing they didn't plan to flee at the high point; instead, they started betting again.
So don't just focus on earnings and profits.
The truly worth watching is:
With the mountain of cash Buffett left behind, how exactly does Abel plan to spend it? Feeling back to the second half of 2023!
In the second half of 2023, the Fed kept creating expectations of rate hikes but never did.
The second half of 2026 will feel a bit like this.
In the second half of 2023, the market was eagerly awaiting the ETF approval,
In the second half of 2026, the market is eagerly awaiting the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act.
Don't you feel a bit like the second half of 2023 now?Is the big one really coming? Besides the BTC spot trading volume ratio on exchanges hitting a record high, CME's hedge funds have shifted from long-term arbitrage-type airdrops this month to directional bets on net long positions. This is a structural change. Before this, especially after ETFs launched, they sold spot and shorted futures to earn basis returns. BTC fluctuations didn't matter to them only for arbitrage. But if these people suddenly stopped shorting on a large scale and started going long, it means they believe BTC is more likely to rise in the future, making far more money than arbitrage basis returns, so they are willing to take direct risk and go long. The hedge funds in CME are the most rational, ruthless, and profit-driven institutions in the market. They dare to make such a move, hmm..... 🤔 #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? “赚一辈子的钱”这句我同意，我不同意的是后面那半句：不甘心就去搏。
不甘心是情绪，情绪不是策略。
真正决定你能不能搏的，是三件事。一，你输完之后还能不能再上桌。二，你这次输掉的东西，下次还能不能用。三，你搞的那件事，赚的是资本回报还是还是你自己的工时。前两件没有，第三件是后者，那就不叫掌控命运，那叫换个地方当牛马。
我看过的反例太多了。16 万人里四个月翻倍的七十几个，不到万分之五 —— 这数字摆在那，就已经说明“一门心思搞钱”跟“搞成”中间隔了什么。一门心思的人多得是，少的是输得起的人。
所以我的讲法是：低成本活着不是备胎，是你的本金。你的命是你的第一笔仓位，别一次押完，懂吧。#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in the earnings report remain to be resolved
SanDisk Investor Day Countdown: Can HBF + BiCS10 dual technology help the halved stock price take off again?
The stock price fell from 2354 to 1214, nearly halved, with a P/E ratio of just 6 times—but the earnings beat expectations, Citi's target price was 2500, and analysts averaged 2220. On August 13, at Investor Day, SanDisk will present the HBF technology roadmap and commercialization timeline. If the "technology story" can be turned into a "revenue story," this AI storage dark horse may face a value revaluation; If it remains vague, it will have to wait around 1200 for a while.
Brief summary:
1. Core Events
· August 13 Investor Day: Highlights: HBF roadmap, commercialization timeline, BiCS10 technology, SSD expansion plans, long-term contracts.
2. HBF: Filling the AI "Storage Wall" Gap
· Positioned between HBM (expensive, small) and SSD (slow, low bandwidth), it uses NAND stacking (8/16 layers), single module 512GB, bandwidth 0.4~3TB/s, and UCIe interface directly connected to GPU/CPU.
· Google and Tenstorrent have joined the ecosystem, aiming to solve the pain point of AI inference data not being fed.
3. BiCS10: 332-layer 3D NAND
· The tenth-generation QLC flash memory has a density increase of 59% over the previous generation, with samples to be delivered in the second half of the year, specifically designed for AI data lakes and RAG knowledge bases.
4. Stock Price and Valuation
· Current price is 1203, down 48% from the peak, with a PE ratio of about 6 times. The earnings report beat expectations but guidance is 250 million less, causing the market to turn hostile.
· Citi's target price is 2500, analysts' average target is 2220, and executive sell-offs at historical highs are reasonable.
5. Key highlights
· If the roadmap is clear→ the market will reprice and the premium will return; If unclear→ wait to fluctuate around 1200.
· On August 13, it was decided whether SanDisk would be a "technology story" or an "income story."
Currently, SanDisk is still fluctuating around 1200. There's no cost-effectiveness for longs or shorts at this level, so it's best to wait for it to move before deciding how to play; otherwise, entering now might get you stuck!
$SNDK #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Everyone, last week, the scale of ETF capital inflows was indeed significant.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $865 million, the highest level in 15 weeks. BlackRock alone absorbed $694 million, accounting for 80%. Ethereum is also not weak, with net inflows for five consecutive weeks and another $244 million last week. The money is coming in with real money, and the total volume is indeed impressive.
But Mige still says the same thing: volume coming in is good; if prices don't keep up, it means there are still concerns. BTC is stalling around 64,000, and Coinbase's premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days. Is this money being arbitrage funds playing or long-term institutions entering the market? Premium indicators tell the story better than inflow data.
There is still a structural issue unresolved. The average cost for short-term holders is $67,523, and the price is still 3.8% lower. When the price rebounds to that area, a wave of uncovering orders will emerge.
Mi Ge's stance remains unchanged: ETF inflows are positive, at least indicating the worst is over. But whether a trend can form depends on whether there is genuine demand in the spot market and how CPI data moves. Relying solely on ETF buying to push a rebound lacks solid foundation.
What do you all think about this round of return—is it a reversal signal or a short-term pulse? Let's split the discussion in the comments. Wishing everyone a smooth trading week ahead $BTC $ETH $BICO $BTC Bitcoin stands arrogantly on the hill of 65,000, waving its flag like a victorious general.
$ETH Ethereum is gasping halfway up the mountain, trailing by 2,000 points, with a face full of 'wait for me.'
This is quite intriguing. Funds have become extremely "fragmented"—even though the market is constantly warm, oil prices have fallen, and the fighting has faded, everyone's panic index has plummeted. But when real money enters, they cling tightly to the big boss and ignore Little Ether.
Why? Because of cowardice. After several rounds of "Boy Who Cried Wolf," no one dares to bet lightly on the knockoff season now. People would rather sleep with Bitcoin, the "digital Noah's ark," than bet on Ethereum's ecosystem story. Ethereum is like that minor student in the class—technically solid, but unable to deliver impressive results in the short term.
So the current market is somewhat ironic: the most optimistic signals and the most cautious operations coexist. Everyone is waiting for Wednesday's CPI—waiting for the data to be cast as a stone, to see if the water ripples or just hits a pit. August is long—let's wait and see. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miners lack support Record-breaking earnings report but down 18% in one week—SanDisk's pre-market rebound of 2%. Is this a technical correction or a trend reversal?
---
📊 1. Pre-market Trend: Storage sector collectively rebounds
As of pre-market trading on August 10, SanDisk (SNDK) was trading at around $1,215-1,220, a slight rebound of about 2% from last Friday's closing price of $1,212.21. Memory chip stocks rose broadly in pre-market trading—Western Digital rose 1.54%, Micron Technology rose 1.27%, and SK Hynix rose 0.57%. Nasdaq futures rose 0.41%, with overall risk appetite moderately recovering.
Last Friday (August 7), SanDisk closed at $1,212.21, down 3.68% for the day, with an intraday low of $1,184.37. Based on the post-August 5 earnings high of $1,441.76, the cumulative decline over three trading days is about 16%.
📉 2. Q4 Financial Report Review: Explosive Data, But Guidance "Not Surprising Enough"
After the market closed on August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2026:
· Revenue: $8.97 billion, up 372% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations of $8.39 billion
· Non-GAAP EPS: $39.25, 135 times the $0.29 profit a year ago
· Gross Margin: 84.6%
· GAAP net profit: $6.9 billion
· Full-year 2026 revenue: $20.248 billion, up 175% year-over-year
The core reason for the decline is that the Q1 guidance "fell short of the market's overly optimistic expectations":
· Q1 revenue guidance: $10.3-10.8 billion (median $10.55 billion), below market expectation of $11.15 billion
· Q1 EPS guidance: $44-$46 (median $45), slightly below market expectation of $45.58
· Gross margin guidance: 83%-85%, basically flat from Q4's 84.6%, with no further expansion
🏦 3. Latest Institutional Views: Collective Lowering of Target Prices, Consensus Still Remains 'Buy'
After the earnings reports, several institutions lowered their target prices:
· Evercore ISI: Price target lowered from $3,100 to $2,800, maintaining "outperform"
· Cantor Fitzgerald: Reaffirms $2,900 target price
· Goldman Sachs: Maintains $2,200 target price and "Buy" rating
· Citi: Price target lowered from $2,500 to $2,100, maintained "Buy"
· Jefferies: Price target lowered from $3,000 to $1,750, maintained "Buy"
· RBC: Raises target price to $1,300, maintains "sector synchronization"
According to S&P Global, the average target price for 23 analysts is about $2,054, which still leaves about 69% upside from the current price.
Goldman Sachs hit the nail on the head: "The core issue facing the current storage industry is not fundamentals deterioration, but that market expectations have exceeded reality. ”
🚀 4. The driving logic behind today's pre-market rebound
1. Collective recovery after the storage sector overselled
SanDisk has pulled back about 48% from its July high of $2,354, and last Friday even briefly fell below $1,200. The technical rebound after the overall oversold storage sector was the core driver of today's pre-market strength.
2. The $15.5 billion buyback program provides bottom support
The report also announced an additional $14 billion in repurchase authorizations. Combined with the previous remaining quota, the total executable repurchase scale reached $15.5 billion, accounting for about 8.6% of the company's total market value. The company repurchased $4.5 billion worth of shares in Q4.
3. Investor Day on August 13 is approaching
SanDisk will hold an investor day on August 13, and the market is looking forward to management providing clearer long-term strategic and financial outlooks, which could serve as a catalyst for short-term sentiment recovery.
4. Changes in NVIDIA's AI platform architecture may be a positive factor
Some analysts point out that NVIDIA's next-generation AI platform will reduce reliance on HBM, shifting part of its capacity and data access to SSD, NAND, or HBF architectures, which is generally positive for SanDisk.
📈 5. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
SanDisk is currently fluctuating between $1,200 and $1,220. Analysts point out that $1,260 marks the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—if the hourly chart successfully closes above $1,260, it could reach $1,350; Below, a steady long position is in the $1,070–$1,050 range.
Key resistances: $1,241 (24-hour high)→ $1,260 (bull-bear divide)→ $1,350 (target after breaking 1260)→ $1,441 (post-earnings rebound high)
Key supports: $1,190-1,200 (current core defense zone) → $1,184 (last Friday's low) → $1,120-1,121 (August 3 low) → $1,050-$1,070 (deeper pullback targets)
💎 6. Summary
SanDisk is currently caught in an extreme tug-of-war between the "strongest earnings report in history vs. the most pessimistic market expectations." Q4 revenue surged 372% and gross margin reached 84.6%, both setting record records, but the Q1 guidance "only met expectations," causing it to drop 16% in a week.
$1,200-$1,220 is a key short-term battle range—holding and cooperating with the August 13 Investor Day catalyst could help restore $1,260-$1,350; If it falls below $1,184, it could further test $1,120 or even $1,050.
The core contradiction lies in the fundamental positive factors such as $15.5 billion in buybacks, eight long-term contracts locking in multi-year supply, and structural growth in AI storage demand, while the tug-of-war between guidance falling short of "overly optimistic expectations," concerns about peak gross margins, and storage cycle doubts. Goldman Sachs believes the market is "overly ahead of reality," and the investor day on August 13 will be a key window for management to refocus on market expectations.
$XSNDK $SNDK Some guys asked, is BTC not falling because they're waiting for the US crypto regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act? Is it likely to pass in September?
Regarding the CLARITY Act, the Senate officially entered a recess on August 10, and the bill was not voted on before the recess. The Senate will resume on September 14 and hold its first closing debate vote on September 15.
But the probability of passing in September is extremely low, conservatively estimated to be less than 20%.
Data from forecasting site Polymarket shows that the probability of the bill being signed into law by the end of 2026 has dropped to 21%, compared to 31% a week ago. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis admitted that the bill's final pass probability "may have dropped by 50%."
There are two key bottlenecks. First, the ethics clause is deadlocked. The Democrats demand restrictions on public officials and their families profiting from the crypto industry, targeting the Trump family, and the Democrats refuse to compromise unless Trump nods. Second, concerns about the banking sector remain unresolved. Some Republican senators worry that stablecoin provisions will cause deposits to flow out of community banks, and party support is simply insufficient. Ending the debate requires 60 votes, while Republicans only have 53 seats, requiring at least 7 Democrats to support them.
However, after the meeting resumed in September, there are only three weeks left, with many topics competing for space on the agenda, so ......
Additionally, the actual impact of this bill on BTC may be overestimated.
Grayscale's research director pointed out that even if the bill does not pass, the operation of major blockchains, BTC value storage demand, and stablecoin payment growth will not be immediately affected. Of course, if the bill fails, it is very likely to trigger a short-term "knee-jerk reflex" drop, but the impact is more likely to be sentimental.
Over the past 17 years, the U.S. crypto industry has developed without comprehensive legislation, and the SEC and CFTC will continue to fill regulatory gaps through rulemaking.
The real reason for BTC's current sideways movement is largely the temporary balance of multiple forces: the US-Iran situation, macro data, and ETF fund flows. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? Revenue meets target, losses double—how will Wall Street price Bitdeer's financial report?
---
📊 1. Core Data: Revenue meets target, losses widen
Before the market opened on August 10, Bitdeer (BTDR) released its Q2 2026 financial report:
· Total revenue: $228.8 million, slightly below the market expectation of $231.2 million
· Gross loss: $8.5 million (compared to $12 million in the same period last year)
· Net loss: $92.3 million, up about 47% from $62.9 million in the same period last year
· Adjusted EBITDA: $31.1 million, compared to just $4.6 million in the same period last year
· Self-mining computing power: 73 EH/s, a year-on-year increase of over 340%; Total managed hash rate: 86.1 EH/s
· Q2 BTC output: 2,694 coins
· AI cloud revenue: $14 million
Bitdeer's AI cloud annualized recurring revenue had previously climbed to about $69 million, with GPU utilization remaining above 90%. Notably, its mining business gross margin fell to -23.4% in Q1—for every $1 Bitcoin mined, it loses $0.23.
As of June 30, the company had $496.3 million in cash and restricted cash, and $196.9 million in digital assets and accounts receivable.
📉 2. The gap between market expectations and reality
Revenue basically met targets, but losses far exceeded expectations.
The market consensus expected a loss of $0.32-0.36 per share, but the actual loss was significantly larger. The core issue lies on the cost side—cost of revenue soared from $143.6 million in the same period last year to $237.3 million, an increase of 65%. The high mining difficulty and energy costs on the Bitcoin network are continuously eroding the profit margins of every newly minted Bitcoin.
Gross margin shifted from a positive 7.7% in the same period last year to -3.7%, marking Bitdeer's second consecutive quarter of gross loss. During the same period, MARA Holdings and CleanSpark posted a combined net loss of $851 million in the second quarter, of which about $459 million came from Bitcoin fair value write-downs; Hut 8's revenue fell short of expectations, with its stock price once dropping to $101.20—the entire mining sector was experiencing the same pain.
🏗️ 3. AI Transformation: $4.7 Billion in "Far Water"
A few days before the financial report, Bitdeer announced a 16-year AI/HPC hosting agreement with a leading AI lab at Norway's Tydal campus, valued at approximately $4.7 billion, covering 121 MW of capacity, with a potential 8-year extension option (an additional $3.3 billion). The facility will be equipped with NVIDIA GPUs and is expected to be operational in December 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald called this a "major transaction that changes the investment logic."
Analysts expect the protocol's net operating margin to be around 90%, with annualized revenue of about $290 million. Wall Street is generally optimistic about Bitdeer—11 out of 12 analysts have given a "Buy" rating with a consensus target price of $22.73, implying over 100% upside from the current stock price of about $11. Some analysts have set a more aggressive price range of $35 to $70.
But the reality is: current AI cloud revenue is only $14 million, still far from the $290 million annualized scale. Norway's facility will only start operations at the end of the year, so short-term performance will still be dominated by the continuously loss-making mining business.
💎 4. Summary
Bitdeer's Q2 financial report showed a typical "fire and ice world" — the Bitcoin mining business kept losing money (gross margin -23.4% → gross loss of $8.5 million), while the AI transformation story grew bigger ($4.7 billion contracts, 90% net margin).
Market attitudes toward mining companies' AI transformation are cooling down. In the past month, TeraWulf's stock price has fallen about 12.97%, and on the day the earnings report was released, it fell another 4.29%. Investors are no longer satisfied with news of "signed contracts" but are demanding evidence that "contracts have been converted into actual revenue and profit."
Key Observations:
· Whether the Norwegian campus can be operational on schedule by the end of the year and deliver $290 million in annualized revenue
· Can other parks like Rockdale in Texas replicate the Norwegian model?
· Whether mining losses can narrow as SEALMINER deploys new mining rigs
· Bitdeer currently holds only 150 BTC, and its "min and sell" strategy continues
$BTC This round of oil price increases is not about "supply cutoffs," but about "Hormuz navigation still hasn't truly recovered."
As long as the agreement isn't implemented, shipping, insurance, and supply risks will not disappear for a day. For the crypto world, the biggest problem isn't just rising oil prices, but energy prices pushing inflation expectations up again, further affecting the valuation of the dollar, interest rates, and risk assets.
So what really matters now is not what the negotiations say, but whether the ship can pass normally.
My judgment is clear: oil prices still have short-term upward risk, but Brent crude around $84 is not worth chasing.
On August 10, Brent crude briefly hovered at $84, and WTI was close to $79. Although the flight arrangements between Iran and Oman are nearly finalized, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard clearly stated that whether the straits truly reopen still depends on whether the U.S. accepts Iran's terms; Meanwhile, the Houthis claimed to have attacked Saudi Arabia's Jizan oil refinery.
That is to say: negotiations are advancing, but the risks have not been withdrawn.
Why is the market so sensitive to "agreement extensions"?
The Strait of Hormuz typically carries about 20% of global liquid oil consumption, while also about 20% of global LNG trade passes through. At this level of energy chokepoint, as long as there is some uncertainty about the resumption of navigation, oil prices will be refactored into geopolitical, transport, and insurance premiums.
But I don't bet on a unilateral surge in oil prices.
Trump currently prefers to continue applying economic pressure rather than launching a new round of military action immediately, which would temporarily suppress the most extreme war premiums.
So my baseline judgment is:
Oil prices are highly volatile and trending upward, but this is not blindly chasing long positions.
The order of asset impacts is also clear: energy is the most direct, gold is the most sensitive, and risk assets are the most vulnerable to interest rate cuts.
For the crypto community, the real transmission path is not "something happens in the Middle East, BTC immediately falls," but rather:
· Oil prices rose
· Inflation expectations are rising
· US Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthened
· Risk asset liquidity tightened
· BTC and altcoins are under pressure
It is important to note that the August 10 oil price increase will not be included in this week's July CPI, but it may change the market's pricing of subsequent inflation and the Fed's interest rate path.
My operation is very simple:
Currently, BTC is about $65,200. I will keep my total position at 70%, focusing mainly on BTC spot; Reduce altcoin holdings by one-third, reduce contract leverage to zero, and keep 30% of stablecoins.
Next, let's look at three trigger conditions:
First, Brent crude holds above $85, and both the dollar and the US 2-year Treasury yield rise. I will further reduce my high-volatility position by another 10%.
Second, although the agreement was announced, AIS vessel traffic and shipping insurance costs have not significantly recovered, so I will not chase a rebound in risk assets.
Third, General Aviation remained stable for 48 consecutive hours, and Brent crude fell back below $82 before I gradually increased my position.
My conclusion is:
Don't trade the word "agreement"; trade the result of "whether the ship will actually resume passage."
Agreements do not equal open sailing, and opening does not mean volume recovery. $85 is not some mysterious technology level; it is just my risk switch.
#霍尔木兹协议未落地, oil price risks heating up again? $BZ $CL 800% in one week, down 41% in a single day—would you dare to take on BICO's "dead coin resurrection" drama?
---
📊 1. Real-time Price: Data Battles and Extreme Volatility
As of August 10, BICO prices vary greatly across platforms. CoinGlass shows BICO at about $0.05, up 74.41% in 24 hours and 329.59% over 7 days. ChainCatcher reports Binance spot data showing BICO dropped as much as 49.24% in 24 hours. Other platforms are quoting around $0.055. Different data sources vary greatly; it is recommended to refer to the real-time prices of mainstream CEXs. Current market capitalization is about $50.5 million, with a circulating supply of about 1 billion BICO, fully circulated.
🔥 2. This is not fundamental-driven but a "bear meat grinder"
BICO fell from its all-time high of $22.80 (December 2021) to $0.011 (July 28, 2026), a decline of 4.5 years, a decline of 99.86%. Then, within about a week, it surged dramatically to $0.089, an increase of over 800%. Then, on August 9, it plunged 41% from its peak in a single day.
Why the rise? It's not driven by fundamentals, but by a typical "short squeeze" structure. The contract funding rate remains deep negative (as low as -0.2658%), with long positions piling up but still paying to short, causing prices to rise instead of falling—the shorts keep losing and eventually force liquidations to push prices higher. Futures trading volume is more than ten times that of spot trading, with leveraged funds dominating this pulse market.
🏗️ 3. Project itself: The direction is correct, competition is fierce
Biconomy is an ERC-4337 account abstraction infrastructure that fundamentally addresses Web3 user experience pain points such as gas-free transactions, batch trading, and cross-chain orchestration. It has deployed over 4.6 million smart accounts, processed over $1.1 billion in trading volume, and holds about 50% market share. In July, launched the Biconomy SDK and partnered with Rhinestone to launch the smart account module marketplace. It has received over $20 million in funding from Coinbase Ventures, Binance Labs, Jump Capital, and others. However, competition in this sector is fierce (Safe, Pimlico, Stackup, etc.), and short-term surges are not directly related to fundamentals.
⚔️ 4. The Long-Bear Game: Who Is Leading This Drama?
Long Chips:
· It has rebounded violently from 0.011 to over 600%, showing remarkable trend strength
· Full circulation, no pressure to unlock large amounts
· The funding rate depth is negative, and squeezed fuel is sufficient
Short Chips:
· The top 100 wallets control the vast majority of supply, allowing big players to join forces to dump the market at any time
· RSI overbought + high volume stagnation at high levels, with obvious short-term overheating
· The ATH is $22.8, still down over 99%—trapped positions are bigger than the sky
📈 5. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
BICO is in a high volatility range of $0.049-0.062. After a 4-hour rally, it pulled back, with the RSI once reaching as high as 91.07-92.34, severely overbought. Currently, the order book has a buying pressure of 1.20, with a depth imbalance of 8.95%.
Key resistances: $0.059-0.060 (first resistance) → $0.0622 (recent high, a break would open up space); → $0.066-0.067 (next resistance)→ $0.075 (extended target)
Key supports: $0.055 (current pivot zone) → $0.049-0.050 (first support; a break would damage the bullish structure), → $0.045 (key structural support) → $0.0385-0.040 (deeper retracement zone)
💎 6. Summary
BICO's violent rebound from 0.011 to 0.089 was a typical "zombie coin resurrection + short meat grinder" rally. At its all-time low on July 28, almost no one paid attention; after an 800% rally in one week, the crowd was abuzz, and the real profiteers were always the former.
Biconomy's abstract account narrative is correct, but the short-term surge is unrelated to fundamentals—it's purely a short squeeze driven by low liquidity + high leverage + deep negative fees. Once the bulls take profits and the bears fight back, the price will fall like a free fall—the 41% crash on August 9 was a rehearsal.
$0.055 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A volume increase breaking through $0.0622 and spot volume increases could open up space between $0.066-$0.075; If it falls below $0.049-0.050, it could pull back to 0.045 or even $0.038-0.040.
⚠️ Extremely High Risk Warning: BICO is currently in a "large player + leveraged game" state, with the top 100 wallets highly controlling the market, and futures trading volume exceeding 10 times that of spot markets. Under this structure, prices can double within hours or be halved within hours. This is not investment, this is gambling. Please make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance and do not over-invest.
$BICO The probability of a US-Iran negotiation plunged 10% overnight—Bitcoin's "geopolitical premium" is making a comeback
---
📉 1. What happened?
Polymarket data shows that the probability of "the next round of peace talks between the US and Iran before August 31" has dropped to 22%, a sharp 10% drop within 24 hours; The probability of "before September 30" has also dropped to 56%, down 8%.
This stands in stark contrast to the optimistic expectation that the U.S. side had released a week ago that an "agreement is imminent."
🏛️ 2. Latest Developments
On the Iranian side, the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Parliament has approved a strategic action plan to ensure security and development in the Strait of Hormuz.
On the U.S. side, Trump made it clear over the phone that he is preparing to increase economic pressure on Iran, saying, "We are handling this quietly; we are only in a semi-negotiated state." Trump emphasized that Iran's economy is in "very bad condition," with no money to pay military salaries, and the U.S. maritime blockade is worsening Iran's economic crisis.
Not only did the two sides avoid getting closer, but they continued to widen the gap through a 'low-key approach.'
⛽ 3. Triple Impact on the Crypto Market
1. Expectations of rising oil prices → sticky inflation → persistently high interest rates
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil shipping route. Once the risk of blockades rises, oil prices will inevitably rise, directly pushing up inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even further hikes. This is a systemic negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
2. Geopolitical risk premiums returning to Bitcoin
Part of the logic behind Bitcoin's current rally is "US-Iran easing + surprise nonfarm payrolls = rate cut expectations." The drop in negotiation probability means this logic is being broken. But geopolitical tensions themselves may also create safe-haven buying for Bitcoin—this is a hedge between two forces, with bearish logic prevailing in the short term.
3. Expectations of a stronger dollar
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices→ inflation expectations→ the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates→ the dollar strengthens→ putting pressure on dollar-denominated Bitcoin.
📊 4. The current game landscape under the current context
· Polymarket data shows that the market's pricing in U.S.-Iran easing has dropped sharply from its highs
· Trump's stance leans toward "pressure rather than negotiation," reducing the likelihood of short-term easing
· Iran's parliament has approved a strait security plan, sending a signal of confrontation
· Combined with Wednesday's CPI data, macroeconomic uncertainty is intensifying
[Potential Opportunities] If Bitcoin experiences a short-term panic drop due to escalating US-Iran tensions, it could create a phased buying opportunity. But until then, whether the $65,000 level can hold depends on how quickly the market prices in geopolitical risks. Continued inflows into spot ETFs provide support below, but a breakout upward will require new catalysts.
💎 5. Summary
The probability of US-Iran negotiations plunged 10% within 24 hours, shifting from "an imminent agreement" to "discreet handling and increasing pressure," with geopolitical risks once again becoming a major variable in the crypto market.
Bitcoin's lingering near $65,000 is not just a technical issue—it is also awaiting the final trajectory of the Strait of Hormuz. If negotiations truly break down, Bitcoin may first come under pressure (due to inflation + high interest rate expectations), then be supported by safe-haven buying (due to geopolitical turmoil). The battle between these two forces will be revealed in the coming weeks.
$BTC 针对近期市场关于SK海力士计划出售重庆工厂股份的传闻，公司于8月10日发布公告作出了正式回应。 SK海力士在公告中表示，公司正在研究多种提升封装业务竞争力的方案，但截至目前尚未确定任何具体事项。若未来相关事项确定，将在确定之日起或一个月内再次披露。 此前，据彭博社报道，SK海力士正在评估其重庆NAND闪存封装测试工厂的多种处置方案，包括引进投资者以加速业务增长。知情人士透露，潜在的股权出售对该工厂的估值可能约为30亿美元（约4.2万亿韩元），SK海力士可能在出售后保留少数股权。 重庆工厂背景 重庆工厂是SK海力士在中国大陆最重要的后端生产基地之一，于2014年7月投产，专注于NAND闪存芯片的封装测试。经过多轮扩产，目前员工规模超过2000人，承担着SK海力士全球相当比例的NAND闪存后端产能。 几点观察 回应态度审慎：从公告措辞“尚未确定任何具体事项”来看，工厂处置可能仍处于早期评估阶段，交易尚未确定达成。 行业背景值得关注：美国对华半导体出口管制持续收紧，2025年12月31日后SK海力士在华工厂将失去VEU资格，需逐年申请许可。与此同时，SK海力士正在加速韩国本土AI存储产能建设渣打银行对 $LINK 给出 200 美元的远期估值，核心矛盾在于 RWA 与 CCIP 的机构采用量能否转化为代币直接买盘与质押需求。
现价约 8 美元与 200 美元目标价存在 25 倍拉伸空间，交易桌对该逻辑的驱动因素排序首先看 CCIP 真实交易量与协议收入，其次看质押规模，最后看机构合作意向。
上行剧本的触发条件在于 RWA 资产上链引发 CCIP 使用率暴涨，且付费结算模式直接转化为对 LINK 的买盘或质押锁仓。在该路径下，若协议收入带来持续买盘，现价将打开长期升值空间。
上行剧本的失效信号是机构使用量增加但质押率未见提升，表明业务增长未能完成代币价值捕获。
下行剧本的触发条件在于机构转向自建基础设施，导致协议业务增长与 LINK 价格完全脱钩。若 CCIP 交易量持续平淡，价格将重回低位震荡或面临下行压力。
下行剧本的失效信号是出现大户集中锁仓质押，从而锁定市场流通盘。
未来 7 天最重要的观察变量是 CCIP 链上交易量增长率与质押池的资金净流入情况。
#三星钱包将接入稳定币，支付场景继续扩展 #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？$CRCL Current price is 67.7, with short-term resistance at 72-74
Currently, the market is clearly polarized: on one side are optimistic expectations for regulatory implementation, on the other are cautious about short-term valuations and macro risks. I mainly look at it from two perspectives:
1: Currently, the market's focus is on structural legislation. U.S. crypto regulation is fragmented at the state level and SEC-enforced regulation. Whether it's the Republican-led narrative of "industry innovation + U.S. competitiveness" or the Democrats' insistence on "consumer protection + financial stability," the two parties have no fundamental disagreement on "establishing a unified federal-level regulatory framework"; the differences lie only in regulatory authority, stablecoin rules, and other details.
2. Valuation Premium: CCTP cross-chain protocol, CPN payment network, Arc mainnet, BaaS services, etc., currently account for very low revenue but are growing rapidly (Q2 other revenue +41% year-on-year, full-year guidance raised to $310-330 million). Arc mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, with strong institutional adoption. If these businesses can continue to deliver on time, they can indeed support valuation premiums and reduce dependence on the interest rate environment, supporting a second growth curve in the future.
Deployment range: 47-60 corresponds to a safer margin of security, especially if macro/crypto pullbacks or regulatory implementation falls short of expectations. The advantage is controllable risk; The disadvantage is that it may not be delayed or may take a long time.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? ETF inflows returning while BTC holds near $65.2K is constructive, but the muted response across BTC, ETH and SOL points to absorption rather than a fresh momentum phase. I would treat this as stabilization, not confirmation of a breakout.
With Fed expectations still sensitive to CPI and the Hormuz outcome unresolved, macro risk remains the stronger short-term driver. My bias is cautiously positive, but only while spot demand persists after the initial inflow headline fades.
Not advice, just analysis.📉 The market has already "voted with its feet" in advance, and expectations for rate hikes have cooled significantly
Last Friday's nonfarm payroll data, which was far below expectations (July jobs fell by 23,000), has already poured cold water on rate hike expectations:
· CME FedWatch tool: As of August 10, the market believes the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 55.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike drops to 44.4%.
· Interest rate swap market: The probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 58% before the report to about 40%.
🔍 CPI data may not serve as a "catalyst for rate hikes"
The market generally expects July CPI to continue to decline moderately:
· Overall CPI: Year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, month-on-month rose 0.1%.
· Core CPI: Year-on-year fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, but rose 0.2% month-on-month.
The Cleveland Fed's forecast also shows overall inflation in July moderate (month-on-month only 0.09%). Such expected data is unlikely to provide strong support for a rate hike in September.
🤔 Internal divisions are obvious, and a scenario of "rate hikes followed by rate cuts" is possible
There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve over whether to raise rates in September.
· Hawks (such as Bank of America): believe inflation should be prioritized more, sticking to the September rate hike forecast.
· Dovish/Neutral (such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo): believes employment has cooled and interest rates should remain unchanged for the year.
· Warning signal: Three members of the Federal Reserve have already voted for immediate rate hikes, and Chairman Wash is rumored to be prepared to raise rates if inflation remains strong.
This divergence, combined with the risk hike that worsens economic data, could indeed quickly shift the market toward pricing in a "rate hike followed by rate cut" path.
💎 Summary
Wednesday's CPI is important, but it feels more like a "health check" than a "verdict." Against the backdrop of already weakening employment data, unless inflation data far exceeds expectations, a rate hike in September is unlikely. The market is more likely to maintain the status quo and begin preparing for possible rate cuts in the future.
Do you prefer a "maintain the status quo" or a "rate hike followed by rate cut" scenario? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
$SNDK Even when Bitcoin appeared to have bottomed, previous cycles sometimes produced another significant low months later (Same month it topped or Q4). So the current low could simply be the first major low, not the final bottomRecently, BTCFi has been hyped up, but CORE and MERL are simply not on the same track. 1. Underlying positioning: New World vs. Highway CORE — Attempting to build a "Bitcoin grid" CORE is not a Layer 2, but an independent Layer 1. At its core lies in the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus: it introduces Bitcoin miners' hash power into CORE chain validation, borrowing BTC's security as its own foundation. Ambition: To create a "new continent" compatible with EVM, not only serving retail staking but also targeting institutional-grade lstBTC (liquid staking Bitcoin) business, aiming to become the financial infrastructure of the Bitcoin ecosystem. MERL — The "high-speed channel" for Bitcoin assets. MERL is a genuine Layer 2. ZK-Rollup technology is used to process transactions off-chain, and then the validation results (ZK Proof) are packaged back to the Bitcoin mainnet. Mission: To solve congestion and high gas issues when BRC20 and inscription assets interact on-chain. It serves users who already hold BTC-native assets (such as Ordinals). 📝 Planet Review: CORE is about building the foundation, while MERL is about building elevated bridges. 2. Security vs. Staking: Trustlessness vs. Custody This is the hardest difference between the two and the key to determining your risk tolerance. CORE: Non-custodial "triple insurance" principalIn the past, whenever the crypto community saw Saylor's orange BTC holding chart,the first reaction was "Here it comes,Saylor is going to buy $BTC again,"and then everyone would start trading early,thinking institutional faith had returned.That chart was once a switch for bullish sentiment, but now,when the same chart is released,the market is clearly not as excited.
Why? Because everyone has started focusing on a more realistic question—not whether he will buy,but how much longer he can keep buying.
Saylor and Strategy have indeed changed the institutional narrative around Bitcoin. Previously,when companies held BTC,people thought they were crazy,but now more and more institutions are reevaluating the value of digital asset allocation. However,company purchases and retail purchases are completely different matters. Retail investors can rely on faith,but companies have to consider financing costs,cash flow,shareholder returns,preferred stock pressure,and the overall market environment.
So now the market is not looking at the phrase "Bitcoin is the future,"but at how many bullets you still have and how long you can sustain. If Strategy can really continue to increase holdings,during this hesitant market phase it will definitely boost bullish sentiment because the market lacks not only money but also a confidence anchor. But if it’s just a chart with no follow-up buying announcement,it only brings emotional fluctuations and changes nothing.
This is also a sign of market maturity. Early on,Saylor posting a chart was good news;now,when he posts a chart everyone waits for confirmation.Capital is shifting from believing stories to verifying data.This is actually part of Bitcoin’s maturation process—trading used to be about faith, now it’s about sources of funds,balance sheets,and real purchasing power.
Classic signals won’t always be effective. True traders don’t just rush in when they see a familiar pattern; they ask one more question: this time has the fundamental caught up?The market always rewards those who prepare in advance not those who only repeat the past.[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said that Samsung's move is much bigger than you imagine. It's not about "adding a wallet to your phone"—it's using 800 million Galaxy phones to directly build a compliant global stablecoin distribution network.
Samsung has confirmed that within this year, it will officially launch stablecoin accounts, cross-border remittances, and offline payment functions in Samsung Wallet in select countries, with further global expansion.
This matter needs to be examined in detail; there are three layers of logic behind it.
First, this is a "dimensionality reduction strike" level user entry point. The biggest pain point in the crypto industry is "user reach," and Samsung has over 800 million active Galaxy devices worldwide. It doesn't require you to download a separate app, but directly puts a stablecoin account in your Samsung wallet where you open your transit card and store membership codes every day. Areta analyst's exact words are: "Distribution channels are scarce assets, and Samsung has a large number of them." This user reach capability is something no crypto-native app can match.
Second, this is a "compliance + closed-loop" ecosystem approach, completely different from previous attempts. Samsung doesn't handle finance itself; it handles the front-end entry point, while underlying compliance, custody, and clearing are handled by licensed institutions like Circle and Coinbase. More importantly, it integrates with the newly launched Galaxy Card credit card, enabling a closed-loop where "stablecoins in the wallet are directly linked to the credit card for offline consumption." This means you can spend USDC in the real world just like using a regular bank card. Samsung Wallet already has nearly 19 million users in South Korea, covering 61 countries, providing a massive user base for large-scale stablecoin adoption.
Third, it's not just taking shortcuts—it's building its own path. Samsung's layout in the crypto field began long ago. Back in 2019, it built a hardware wallet for its phones, and by 2025, it was deeply linked to Coinbase. In May this year, it spent $408 million to acquire shares in Dunamu, the parent company of Korea's largest exchange, Upbit. This time, the stablecoin feature is fully integrating 'front-end entry + back-end infrastructure.'
The long-term impact on Bitcoin is a good thing. This won't directly push prices up in the short term, but it provides a super entry point for "ordinary people to enter the crypto world without feeling anything." When 800 million phones default to stablecoin payments, the underlying value base of the entire crypto asset class will be even stronger. Apple and Google are definitely watching closely; if Samsung goes through with this, the entire track will change accordingly.
Remember, Samsung is using the scale of phone sales to do something that will change the financial payment landscape. This is much more worth thinking about than pulling a big bullish candlestick.
So in the future, more and more people and countries will embrace Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin's spring far off? $ETH $BICO $SOL #三星钱包将接入稳定币, payment scenarios continue to expand Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle
Historically, since Bitcoin started going through its bull and bear market cycles, there has been one thing in common: Bitcoin has marked its next top roughly four years after the previous top, and every bear market has ended around one year after Bitcoin marked its top.
2022: Bitcoin topped in November and bottomed in November.
2018: Bitcoin topped in December and bottomed in December.
2015: It was slightly different. Bitcoin topped in November and bottomed in January.
So, we can say that Bitcoin tends to bottom around one year after the top, or in Q4.
The argument is: If Bitcoin topped after four years, just like it has in previous cycles, then why wouldn't it bottom in October or Q4, like it did in the previous cycles?#闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion
SanDisk ($SNDK) is currently at a crossroads of fierce bullish and bearish competition.
The bulls' reasoning is straightforward: valuation pushed to 6x PE, the stock price has been cut in half from previous highs, Citi's target price of 2500 is clearly there, and the upside odds are very attractive. Moreover, the HBF architecture is backed by Google and Tenstorrent, and BiCS10 has increased stacking density by nearly 60%, so the technical reserves are not thin. As long as Thursday investor day clarifies the pace of product launches, repricing funds is only a matter of time.
But the bears simply aren't buying it. They believe these stories have long been scooped up in research reports, and the market now wants real cash in current income, not a promise that might only be realized in 2027. Last quarter's earnings guidance was just a little short, yet it still dropped 7% after hours, showing very little room for error. Executives selling shares at high levels is frustrating even if compliant, let alone Samsung is developing a separate HBF with disconnected ecosystem routes, making the competitive landscape far less relaxed than bulls imagine.
Looking at the technology in detail, HBF is essentially a "middle layer" storage solution developed by SanDisk and SK Hynix—NAND flash stacked with 8 to 16 layers, single module reaching 512GB, 3TB/s bandwidth directly connected to GPU, stuck in the gap between HBM and traditional SSDs, aiming to break through the "storage wall" of AI inference. BiCS10 is a 332-layer QLC, with samples planned for delivery in the second half of the year, targeting AI data lake scenarios. The specs are indeed impressive, but the real obstacles are mass production ramp-up and customer validation.
The horizontal trend is even more obvious than its peers: Hynix holds 52% of HBM market share on one side and is a co-developer of HBF, holding both legs of AI storage; Samsung pursues self-developed development, which is incompatible with the SanDisk Alliance; Micron lacks HBF positioning, and at the NAND level, it is squeezed by BiCS10, making it unreachable.
Looking at the crypto market, BTC is around 65,093, ETH ($ETH) around 1,919, both hovering below key support levels. Strictly speaking, SanDisk's HBF progress is not hardly tied to the crypto world—AI storage is solving the computing power supply bottleneck, not the core engine for coin prices. But there's a soft logic: if AI hardware can be sustained, it will gradually restore market risk appetite, and it's only a matter of time before funds shift from safe-haven assets back to growth stocks and crypto assets. But right now, BTC and ETH are waiting for macro rate cut signals, not just a roadmap for a storage company.
So whether Thursday's schedule is accurate or not, its direct impact on Bitcoin is limited. What truly affects the crypto world is interest rate expectations—CPI, employment data, Fed official rhetoric, these are the real catalysts.
The industry is shifting from the HBM trio to a multi-company HBF battle. If the timeline is solid, SanDisk's valuation reshaping is just beginning; If not, it may continue to bottom around 1200. As for whether Bitcoin ($BTC) can ride this wind? To be honest, the transmission chain is too circuitous; the core price still depends on macro conditions.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH Berkshire Hathaway ended fourteen consecutive quarters of net selling at the U.S. stock market peak, with nearly $20 billion in net purchases flowing back into the market, while underwriting profits from its core insurance business have quietly declined.
With nearly $20 billion in net long positions established, this established institution's cash reserves have dropped from a peak close to $400 billion to about $365 billion, showing clear concentration in capital flows.
The new management has shifted its holdings to high-beta assets and real industries by increasing holdings in tech giants and acquiring residential developers, aiming to reactivate the efficiency of idle funds in the latter half of the macro cycle.
This aggressive adjustment of position structure forms a direct hedging relationship with the weakening of insurance underwriting profits. If the real economy cools and the cost of insurance floating deposits rises, portfolios built at high levels will lose their original safety cushions. The transmission relationship between the two remains to be confirmed.
If inflation data remains moderate and the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, market risk appetite will further rise, unlocking earnings elasticity in newly allocated technology and residential sectors. A systemic valuation contraction in tech stocks would render this trajectory ineffective.
Once inflation rebounds more than expected and leads to higher interest rates, substantial physical acquisitions and equity positions will be directly exposed to macroeconomic tightening risks until management withdraws funds back into short-term U.S. Treasuries and other safe-haven assets, which will only ease this downward pressure.
Currently, the market is divided on the timing ability of the new management. If Berkshire turns to net selling again in subsequent quarters, it would indicate that this large-scale allocation is merely a selective trading window rather than a long-term strategic offensive.
In the next seven days, it is important to closely watch the release of the latest U.S. inflation data, which will directly determine market expectations for the interest rate path and in turn influence the valuation trajectories of Berkshire's newly heavily weighted stocks.
#比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support insufficient #财报观察员: Bear buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward?$SNDK
Currently, the market is in a game between "strong fundamentals vs. valuation digestion":
Upside: If Analyst Day releases more than expected information on August 13 and sector sentiment stabilizes, the stock price is likely to rebound from the 1220–1260 range, with targets at 1350 → 1750
Downside: If analysts fail to provide sufficient confidence or if the storage sector remains under pressure, a pullback to 1200 → 1070–1050 may occur
Q4 performance itself was flawless, but the essence of the plunge was "expectations running too fast, valuations need time to digest." NBM long-term contracts lock in future revenue (around $94 billion guarantee), 14 billion yuan in buybacks, and a forward-looking PE of only 5.6 times are the bulls' core trump cards; but slowing profit momentum, pricing slowing, and declining consumer business are also risks that cannot be ignored#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解
$SNDK SanDisk will hold its Investor Day on August 13.
What will be discussed at this Investor Day?
According to the official schedule, it starts at 9 AM Eastern Time on Thursday, August 13. The core topics include: HBF product roadmap, commercialization timeline, BiCS10 3D NAND technology, SSD capacity expansion plans, and long-term supply contracts.
What is HBF?
HBF is a new storage technology jointly launched by SanDisk and SK Hynix, positioned between HBM and traditional SSDs. HBM is too expensive and has small capacity, SSDs are too slow with insufficient bandwidth, and HBF fits right in the middle — using NAND flash stacking, 8 or 16 layers stacked, with a maximum of 512GB per module and bandwidth from 0.4 to 3.0TB/s. It uses a UCIe interface, allowing direct connection to GPU and CPU. Google and Tenstorrent have already joined the ecosystem. The goal is to solve the "storage wall" problem in AI inference — as models grow larger, no matter how powerful the GPU is, it’s useless if data can’t be fed in.
What is BiCS10?
BiCS10 is the tenth-generation 3D NAND jointly developed by SanDisk and Kioxia, with 332 layers stacked, QLC version, bit density increased by about 59% compared to the previous generation. Samples will be delivered in the second half of the year. It uses CBA wafer bonding technology, optimizing logic circuits and storage arrays separately. It features high density and low power consumption, designed specifically for AI data lakes and RAG knowledge bases.
Why is it important?
SanDisk’s current stock price is 1214, down 48% from the June high of 2354, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 6 times. The earnings report showed 8.97 billion, exceeding expectations, but guidance was lowered by 250 million, causing the market to turn negative immediately. Citi’s target price is 2500, and the average analyst target price is 2220. If the Investor Day provides a clear enough HBF roadmap and commercialization timeline #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn longer. 🟠宏观与加密的共振窗口正在打开：BTC重回65,000美元关口，ETH与BNB同步拉升近3%，整个市场的气息变了。但别急着喊牛市，先看清这波反弹的底层逻辑。 📉先说微观面：Hyperliquid的收入已经连续四个季度下滑，尽管RWA perps创下历史新高，但这块热闹的表象反而掩盖了$HYPE自身的疲态。数据不会说谎——市场用脚投票，交易量的繁荣不等于项目基本面的好转，叙事能支撑估值的时间窗口越来越短。这是山寨季到来前最典型的“分化信号”。 🇯🇵真正的重头戏在日本：SBI集团正式计划在东京证券交易所推出$BTC与$XRP的双现货ETF，且是在FIEA框架下获批运营之后。这是亚洲合规资金入场的重要一步，意义不亚于美国现货ETF的获批。机构通道一旦打开，日元的配置力量将直接传导至加密资产，亚洲市场正在成为下一轮牛市的增量引擎。 📈再看美股：标普500收盘刷新历史纪录，站上7,758点，背后是就业数据的疲软。这个逻辑很反直觉但很清晰——经济数据越弱，市场对降息的预期就越强，风险偏好反而被推高。纳指与BTC的联动性在这一轮里展现得淋漓尽致：美元的流动性预期是加密市场最大的宏观燃料。 In the history of the DeFi world, exchanging the classic decentralized stablecoin DAI for the new USDS at a one-to-one ratio, and swapping the governance token MKR for SKY at a fixed ratio of 1:24,000, is by no means a simple product iteration or technical upgrade. Many DeFi believers are excited by the grand official "endgame plan" PPT, firmly believing this is the necessary path to introduce broader traditional asset collateral and push protocol asset scale to hundreds of billions of dollars. But I believe this transformation is precisely the most tragic and tragic technical sovereignty voluntary disarmament in DeFi history. Under the pressure of compliance and survival, MakerDAO, the pioneer of decentralized lending, chose to rein in its idealistic edge by changing its identity identity.
Looking back at this two-year timeline of brand and architecture transformation, we see that every technological milestone has been accompanied by the shadow of compromise.
In August 2024, the founder publicly announced the "Endgame Plan" brand rebranding roadmap, officially confirming the renaming of MakerDAO to Sky and gradually launching a new stablecoin USDS that can be frozen to replace the freely circulating DAI. At that time, intense ideological battles erupted within the community, with many warning that this could undermine its resistance to censorship.
By 2025, as regulatory storms intensify, Sky began accelerating the token exchange process. USDS introduced address blacklists and one-click freeze functions into its underlying code, aligning with traditional compliant fiat stablecoins USDC and USDT.
Fast forward to July 2026, when the Sky Governance Committee carried out a series of technical closing operations. They not only adjusted the Sky Spread interest rate spread and normalized staking rewards, but also, through voting, began gradually stripping and clearing out early-stage DAO assets and unsecured lending assets that could not pass compliance audits.
This series of tightening timelines finally transformed the former king of decentralized lending into a traditional financial trust entity disguised as Web3 in early August this year.
In this irretrievable transformation process, as an early DeFi liquidity provider, my experience was extremely complex. Back then, we held DAI because we were proud of its borderlessness, trustlessness, and censorship resistance, firmly believing it was a digital sanctuary independent of the secular sovereign banking system. But today, when I look at the warning box prompting me to upgrade DAI to USDS and think of the blacklist code at the base of the new token that could be frozen at any time, I deeply realize that the DeFi totem that once symbolized the spirit of resistance no longer exists.
To survive in the vast traditional financial system, the protocol ultimately chose to cut its sharpest thorns and willingly put on the golden handcuffs handed over by regulators.
The expansion of commercial scale often comes at the cost of ceding sovereignty. When a protocol chooses to actively end the gene of freedom in exchange for institutional capital taking over, it has already regressed from a revolutionary experiment into a mediocre intermediary for survival.
If all leading DeFi protocols ultimately have to "abandon their own skills" in exchange for compliance, is the distributed finance experiment we once pursued just a luxurious dream we have in the tech frenzy?
In the next six months, I will focus on tracking the rise and fall of two decentralization metrics: one is the inverted slope between the total circulating scale of USDS and the existing legacy DAI supply, reflecting the speed at which users accept compliant frozen assets; the other is whether, after Sky fully divests its legacy assets, the proportion of real-world assets (RWA) on its balance sheet will break the 80% red line, completing its transformation from a decentralized stablecoin to an on-chain dollar trust.为什么$BTC 没有跟随美股上涨 市场逻辑变了吗
最近一个明显现象就是：
美股科技股强势。
BTC相对平稳。
很多人开始怀疑，是不是加密市场已经不受资金喜欢。
我觉得这个判断并不准确。
真正的问题是，两个市场目前交易的东西不同。
美股上涨主要靠产业兑现。
AI行业已经出现真实需求。
企业投入增加。
相关公司利润增长。
所以机构资金愿意持续配置。
但BTC上涨更多依赖宏观环境和资金周期。
它没有企业利润，也没有财报。
市场看的更多是：
美元流动性。
利率变化。
ETF资金。
投资者风险偏好。
所以短期出现背离很正常。
现在资金喜欢确定性。
AI股票给了资金明确答案。
而BTC需要等待下一阶段资金重新寻找高收益机会。
我认为未来如果全球流动性改善，BTC依然具备较强弹性。
只是当前资金选择了不同方向。
市场不是抛弃币圈，而是在等待新的机会窗口。#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ A wallet dormant since 2025 just woke up and started buying $ANSEM with six figures
1 day ago, it came back to life
The wallet sold portions of its $USELESS $FARTCOIN and $NOBODY holdings to buy 1.095M tokens for $211.56K
Then, just 2 hours ago, another wallet linked to it bought an additional 543K tokens for $100.8K
Together, that's 1.638M $ANSEM accumulated for $312.36K
The first wallet now holds 0.11% of the supply, making it the 58th largest holder
wallet:E8UeRNpgLdQBSPwJvfLhjAw5tarbe1eEY13cX2csugpa
The second wallet holds 0.0537% of the supply, ranking 137th largest holder
wallet: KSmeghLvp1LJGqYKzCB31LctzER1dh1aUnvRqDyEyVRAny of our trading decisions must include a time limit to be considered valid.
Recently, I came across a viewpoint expressing that: most likely in the next Bitcoin bull cycle, due to MicroStrategy's strategic shift, $MSTR will no longer soar spirally with both feet stepping in sync. The conclusion is that buying $MSTR is no longer viable, and one should honestly buy Bitcoin; no one can confirm or refute this viewpoint until it plays out over the next few years, but I raise two points:
1. Look at the volatility of the coin and stock themselves. Bitcoin's current price doubling means 130,000, breaking the previous high, while MSTR's current price doubling means 200.
2. Consider time and inertia. Maybe the above viewpoint will eventually be confirmed, but perhaps $MSTR will only be proven unable to soar spirally in the mid to late stages of the next Bitcoin cycle;
However, by then Bitcoin might already be at 130,000, and MSTR might have returned to its previous high. Bitcoin could continue to rise, but MSTR might not follow; just like in early 2023, we still speculated on L2, modular solutions, and other things that were ultimately proven unviable.At 8:30 PM on Wednesday night, the CPI is about to arrive.
I looked at market expectations: July's year-on-year growth was 3.4%, core 2.5%, both just a bit below the previous value. The decline isn't huge, but the direction is downward—this trend is more important than the numbers themselves. My personal judgment is straightforward: as long as the price jump isn't outrageous, the September rate hike can basically be put behind the scenes.
But whether the crypto world can ride this wave to surge, that's another matter.
Let's first look at the current positions: Bitcoin at $65,093, Ethereum at $1,919, both stuck below key resistance levels. BTC has been hovering around 65,000 over the past few weeks, neither going up nor down, just missing a catalyst to point the right direction.
My expectation is: CPI is most likely moderate. As long as the core month-on-month growth does not exceed 0.2%, the market will confirm that the rate hike cycle is truly over. After several lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC has risen 5%-8% on the same day. Ethereum is more resilient; it should break through the 1,920-1,930 level, with the next step being 2,000.
Conversely, if core CPI unexpectedly jumps above 2.6%—although I don't think the probability is high—the market will definitely panic in the short term. BTC and ETH can't escape a 3%-5% drawdown, and Ethereum is heavily leveraged, which can be much harder to slash than Bitcoin.
But even if it's more hawkish, I don't think there will really be a rate hike in September. With marginal economic weakness, tighter credit, and overall inflation trending downward, these three factors weigh down, so Powell has no reason to push for a cut. So, in my view, a pullback is a window to increase positions.
In terms of space, my analysis suggests that BTC will likely run in the $57,700-$67,000 range in August. If it holds above 67,000, the next stop will be 71,000-74,000. As long as Ethereum BTC holds steady at 65,000, $2,000 is not a dream. Currently, the market generally bets that ETH will approach 2,000 in August.
On the gold side, if CPI leans dovish, spot gold can easily rise above $4,350. Weak employment, cooling rate hike expectations, weakening dollar, and rising gold have all been smooth.
In the US market, storage stocks like SanDisk SNDK, SK Hynix, and SPCX often fluctuate significantly after data releases. SanDisk's previous earnings both exceeded expectations and still declined; whether the CPI positive can be revived remains uncertain. I've been monitoring SPCX, and it's been performing quite strongly recently.
But honestly, these aren't what I care about most. The core battleground is in crypto—let's see how on-chain funds and ETFs flow after Wednesday's CPI comes out; that's the real vote.
Bitcoin is waiting for the certainty signal of interest rate cuts, not the CPI itself. But the CPI might be the fuse. Let's wait and see.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? After several consecutive months of large net outflows, US BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen capital inflows back, warming institutional allocation sentiment. However, this round of inflows is a temporary recovery, and the upward rhythms of the two major coins are clearly diverging. Whether the market can sustain a sustained rally remains subject to multiple constraints.
From a capital logic perspective, ETF subscriptions force institutions to buy corresponding coins in the spot market, forming rigid buying pressure to support prices. This round of BlackRock's leading ETFs is the main inflow, helping to ease market selling pressure in the short term and restore the previously overly pessimistic liquidity situation. There is a sequence of capital inflows: In the early stage of capital risk appetite recovery, funds prioritize BTC as the core bottom position in the crypto market; Once the market stabilizes, incremental funds rotate into ETH, and combined with RWA and on-chain application narratives, ETH tends to be more elastic.
However, there are obvious shortcomings in current returns: the scale of net weekly inflows is far less than the cumulative outflows before, and it is merely a pulse inflow, with no trend inflows lasting more than three consecutive weeks, and the strength of incremental funds is weak. There is still suppression at the macro level. CPI, expectations of Fed rate hikes, and US dollar volatility will continue to disrupt risk assets. Once inflation data rises, institutions will quickly tighten their exposure to crypto assets.
Market trend will remain divergent: BTC is bottoming out with stable ETF buying pressure, giving it stronger resistance to declines; ETH's high elasticity is accompanied by high volatility, and excess gains only occur during periods of broadly relaxed risk appetite. If ETF funds flow out again, this round of rebound will quickly end. In the short term, the focus will be on oscillating recovery. To achieve a sustained upward trend, ETF will need continuous large net inflows + dual resonance of macro easing expectations $BTC $ETH $BEAT Any of our trading decisions must include a time limit to be considered valid.
Recently, I came across a viewpoint expressing that: most likely in the next Bitcoin bull cycle, due to MicroStrategy's strategic shift, $MSTR will no longer soar spirally with both feet stepping in sync. The conclusion is that buying $MSTR is no longer viable, and one should honestly buy Bitcoin; no one can confirm or refute this viewpoint until it plays out over the next few years, but I raise two points:
1. Look at the volatility of the coin and stock themselves. Bitcoin's current price doubling means 130,000, breaking the previous high, while MSTR's current price doubling means 200.
2. Consider time and inertia. Maybe the above viewpoint will eventually be confirmed, but perhaps $MSTR will only be proven unable to soar spirally in the mid to late stages of the next Bitcoin cycle;
However, by then Bitcoin might already be at 130,000, and MSTR might have returned to its previous high. Bitcoin could continue to rise, but MSTR might not follow; just like in early 2023, we still speculated on L2, modular solutions, and other things that were ultimately proven unviable.Analysis 🔥 of the impact of CPI data on BTC market after implementation
Core underlying logic:
CPI determines Fed rate cut expectations → drives US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, → changes overall market liquidity and risk appetite. BTC is currently highly tied to US risk assets, and CPI data will directly reshape the short-term direction of the market.
Key time: US July CPI, released at 20:30 Beijing time on August 13, is currently the biggest catalyst for the market.
Three data scenarios impact BTC
Scenario (1): CPI < market expectations (cooling inflation, positive)
- Macroeconomic changes: Rising expectations for rate cuts, falling US Treasury yields, weakening US dollar, and increased risk asset appetite.
- BTC market: Prioritize the challenge at the resistance level of 66,000; if volume rises and it breaks through, it will open upside potential.
- Ripple effect: Altcoins are much more elastic than BTC, and AA and AI-Agent hotspot small-cap coins tend to see stronger gains.
- Hidden risk: Good news may trigger 'buy expectation and sell facts'—a rapid pullback after a surge. Don't blindly chase gains.
Scenario 2: CPI > Market Expectations (Inflation Rebound, Bearish)
- Macroeconomic changes: Rate cut expectations have been significantly delayed, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, the dollar strengthened, and the market tightened liquidity expectations.
- BTC market: Directly testing the key watershed at 64,500 support; Once it is effectively broken, the current rebound brought by non-farm payrolls will come to an end, with a pullback to the 63,800-64,000 range.
- Chain effects: The entire market is falling broadly, with altcoins falling far more than BTC, leading to concentrated liquidation in the futures market and a sharp increase in the risk of slippage in the insertion.
Scenario (3): CPI fully meets market expectations (neutral)
- Macro: The overall direction of rate cuts will not change, market sentiment fluctuations are limited, and after a few minutes of pulses, the market will return to its original technical trend.
- BTC market: Continues to fluctuate between 64,500 and 65,200.
- Capital Behavior: Funds will refocus on macro data, ETF capital flows, on-chain data, and sector narratives, leading to sector differentiation and mainly rotation of hot topics.
Two key points that are easily overlooked are needed
1. Focus on core CPI, not just overall CPI
If the overall CPI looks good but core CPI exceeds expectations, the market still interprets this as stubborn inflation and the market will reverse direction, causing many people to misjudge the market by focusing only on surface data.
2. Short-term illusions after data releases
The first 15-30 minutes after the data comes out are extremely volatile, often showing "fake breakouts and fake crashes." Don't chase the first wave directly; see if the close can hold a key price level for effective signals.
After the CPI is implemented, two core signals are to be closely watched
1. Whether BTC's 64,500 support and 66,000 resistance levels can effectively break through/fall below this is the dividing line between bulls and bears.
2. ETH/BTC Exchange Rate: Stronger exchange rates lead to capital spillover into altcoins; Weaker exchange rates directly cool down the altcoin market. (Personal opinion analysis only) $BTC
Everyone moves forward steadily. Wishing you great wealth and better and better timesEarly this morning, I kept an eye on the market, and $BTC volatility suddenly picked up, hovering back and forth around the 65000 level. Positions were increased by 2.66%, and the ETF also saw a net inflow of over 100 million USD on Friday.
Both mainstream and altcoins are actually stirring beneath the surface. The altcoin season indicator on CoinMarketCap has climbed to 54, and trading volume on South Korea's Upbit has surged dramatically these past two days. It feels like funds are pulling out from Kospi and moving into the crypto space.
The Friday non-farm payroll data of -23,000 was really wild, directly pushing down rate hike expectations and bringing back rate cut trades. Liquidity has taken a short-term breather.
Now it depends on whether this momentum can ride the macro tailwind to extend the range further.
That said, there have been too many fake breakouts in this space. When it surges, don’t sleep too hard on leverage.为什么美股创新高 普通股票却没有感觉上涨
最近很多人有一个疑问。
为什么指数不断上涨，但自己持有的股票却没有明显收益？
我觉得原因就在于当前美股市场的集中度非常高。
这一轮上涨主要由少数大型科技公司推动。
比如英伟达、微软、苹果、亚马逊等巨头，对指数贡献非常明显。
这些公司拥有共同特点：
市场规模大。
盈利能力强。
AI相关性高。
所以大量资金集中流入。
但这也导致一个问题。
指数上涨，并不代表所有股票上涨。
很多传统行业股票表现并没有同步。
这说明现在市场不是全面牛市，而是结构性行情。
资金正在寻找确定性最高的位置。
我认为未来美股机会依然存在。
但投资逻辑已经改变。
以前可能买整个市场。
现在更需要寻找真正受益于产业趋势的公司。
市场上涨不可怕。
可怕的是不知道资金为什么上涨。#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ 我对$TRIA 这个币还是蛮关心的，因为它下跌的时候时间很凑巧。 我记得，$LAB 是在七月初暴跌的，而$TRIA 几天后也暴跌了。 如果仅仅只是暴跌的时间凑巧，我可能还没有那么关注$TRIA 。 但是，$TRIA 在暴跌之后居然进入了长时间的横盘，这就让我有点敏感了。 我记得，在$RAVE 暴跌之后，$LAB 也是在进入一段时间的横盘之后暴涨的。 我个人觉得，$TRIA 有成为妖币的潜质啊！ —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，它的持仓量在中间是有一个突然的暴涨的，对应的合约多功比是上涨的。 但是，合约持仓量上涨之后，很快又跌了下去，它的合约多空比对应的也是下跌的。 我个人认为，可能确实也有资金想要去抄底，但是忍受不了这种长期横盘的煎熬，就离场了。 这说明，现在盘面上外来的资金还是比较少的。 我们再看一下它的走势。 可以发现，它上下震荡的幅度是越来越小的，这种情况一般意味着横盘的结果将要出来了。 —————————————————— 现在这种情况，盘面应该是洗的非常干净了。 七月初一波大暴跌，可以说把多数的高杠杆多头都清理掉了。 之后一个月漫长的$KAITO at 0.66—is the negative fee rate a trap or a free lunch?
The easiest pitfall right now is seeing the 2900% annualized funding fee for going long, and seeing the chance to "collect money while lying down," rushing in to go long. But the extreme negative rate precisely shows that the bears are subsidizing the bulls, yet prices are still falling. What does this mean? Existing bulls would rather pay high funding fees every day just to hold on, but the whales are already admitting losses and exiting.
News Side:
Big players opened positions at an average price of $1.055, and today sold 2.08 million shares at $0.669, losing $800,000 and exiting. This isn't new short sellers dumping the market, but the last bulls can't hold on. Negative rates are the result, not a signal of reversal.
Gongming's view: I tend to remain bearish. Although negative rates are extreme, as long as there is no increased volume bullish candle breaking through 0.674, a rebound is a bullish incentive. The point of failure is the hourly close above 0.696 with increased volume—that would indicate a loosening of the bear structure.
Trading strategy:
Conservative shorts are expected to enter near the 0.674 rebound, aggressive shorts near the spot price.
Can this negative rate attract new bulls to buy in? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Let's start with this week's most important macro ticking time bomb.
Inflation data will be released this Wednesday and Thursday. There is a background to watch behind this—crude oil prices surged about 37% in July. Oil prices are the core driver of inflation, and increases of this magnitude are highly likely to directly push inflation readings higher. If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of the Fed raising rates again will sharply increase, putting pressure on both Bitcoin and risk assets. This is the largest macro black swan window this week.
Technically, Bitcoin is currently releasing extremely rare signals of low volatility.
Volatility has dropped to its lowest point in a year and a half, the Bollinger Bands have closed at their limit, and trading volume is extremely dry. At the same time, open interest continues to climb, and funding rates remain high during the bear market bottom—indicating that the true market bottom has not fully taken hold, and the momentum for downward cleanup of long leverage has not been fully released.
According to the 90-day liquidation heatmap, massive long liquidation orders have piled up between 50,000 and 47,000 below.
These positions are right there, and the main force will most likely first push downward to wash this liquidity, snatching chips from panic makers, and then launch a parabolic rally. This is the classic harvesting logic before every major Bitcoin bottom, never without exception.
My core position building range is still down, unchanged. As long as the market dares to drop down, it will double the accumulation there.
Finally, here's a signal severely undervalued by the market—Ethereum is creating a historic divergence.
Ethereum's price is falling, but the number of transactions across the network is surging wildly against the trend. This is a phenomenon never seen in history—prices are falling, but actual network usage is exploding. This extreme divergence between fundamentals and price has historically always occurred during periods when major funds quietly accumulate again.
This week's PPI and CPI data are the biggest short-term variables, so stay alert until the data is released. Save the heaviest bullets for the lower sides—don't chase the rally, wait for the sell-off.Can Weida continue to rise? What is the market truly worried about?
Recently, Nvidia has remained the focus of attention in the US stock market.
Many people see the stock price continuously rising and wonder:
Is it too late to chase them in now?
I think this issue shouldn't be judged solely by the price increase.
The core of Nvidia's past gains wasn't because the market liked hype, but because it captured the core demand of the AI industry's explosive growth.
Currently, global companies are increasing their AI investment, and this investment first requires computing power support.
This is also why NVIDIA's data center business continues to grow.
But now, the market's demands for NVIDIA have changed.
Previously, investors focused on:
Is there a chance for AI?
Investors are now focusing:
How much longer can AI growth continue?
Can future profits still exceed expectations?
This is the characteristic of large-cap companies.
The stronger it is, the higher the market expectations.
Any information below expectations could cause stock price fluctuations.
I believe NVIDIA still has industrial advantages in the future.
But the logic of the rise has shifted from "spotting opportunities" to "verifying growth."
Funds will not keep buying just because of AI.
It needs to see orders, revenue, and profits being delivered continuously.
So what truly determines NVIDIA's space now is not market heat, but the real demand of the AI industry in the coming years.Why are US stocks getting stronger as they rise? What exactly are funds trading?
Recently, the performance of U.S. stocks has clearly exceeded many people's expectations.
Many investors had previously worried about overvaluations and an economic slowdown, but the market did not see a major correction; instead, it continued to strengthen, driven by tech stocks.
I believe the core reason for the current rise in US stocks is not simply emotional stimulation, but that capital has reaffirmed the growth logic.
Over the past year, AI has become the most important main theme in the US stock market.
But now, the market is no longer just speculating on AI concepts; it's searching for companies that can truly generate profits.
Take NVIDIA as an example: its latest quarterly revenue reached $68.1 billion, with its data center business accounting for $62.3 billion, indicating that AI demand is gradually shifting from conceptual to actual commercial growth.
This is also why funds are willing to continue allocating to tech stocks.
The market is not buying a story, but an industrial chain that has already begun to be realized.
Besides AI, expectations of rate cuts are also a key factor driving U.S. stocks.
When the market expects future interest rates to fall, the valuations of growth companies are supported because funding costs decrease and future earnings value is reassessed.
However, I think the biggest risk now is also obvious.
The faster the rise, the higher the market expectations.
If AI investment slows down or corporate earnings fall short of expectations, US stocks could also experience significant volatility.
So now, when looking at US stocks, you can't just look at index movements.
What really needs to be addressed is:
Will funds continue to flow into leading tech companies? Why is the volatility in US stocks increasing while the crypto world is becoming calmer?
Recently, many people have noticed a strange phenomenon.
In the past, people thought the crypto world was the most volatile market, but now, the daily price movements of US tech stocks are sometimes no less than those of the crypto market.
Why has this change occurred?
I believe the main reason is the difference in funding structure.
Currently, the US stock market, especially in the technology sector, is highly concentrated in capital.
A large amount of institutional capital is concentrated in a few leading companies, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and others.
When the market is optimistic about AI, large amounts of capital flow in rapidly.
But when the market shows some concerns—such as interest rate changes, valuation pressures, or declining earnings expectations—funds can quickly adjust.
So the volatility naturally expands.
After multiple cycles, the crypto market structure is changing.
After the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, more and more long-term funds have flowed in.
These funds do not chase highs and sell on dips every day, but operate according to asset allocation logic.
At the same time, many retail investors have exited after several bear markets, and market sentiment is less enthusiastic than before.
Therefore, the decline in BTC volatility is actually a sign of market maturity.
Of course, low volatility also means a lack of momentum for short-term breakthroughs.
A truly major market usually requires new capital inflows and new narratives to emerge.
Currently, the US stock market is trading AI growth.
The crypto world is waiting for the next round of capital consensus.