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Can Weida continue to rise? What is the market truly worried about?
Recently, Nvidia has remained the focus of attention in the US stock market.
Many people see the stock price continuously rising and wonder:
Is it too late to chase them in now?
I think this issue shouldn't be judged solely by the price increase.
The core of Nvidia's past gains wasn't because the market liked hype, but because it captured the core demand of the AI industry's explosive growth.
Currently, global companies are increasing their AI investment, and this investment first requires computing power support.
This is also why NVIDIA's data center business continues to grow.
But now, the market's demands for NVIDIA have changed.
Previously, investors focused on:
Is there a chance for AI?
Investors are now focusing:
How much longer can AI growth continue?
Can future profits still exceed expectations?
This is the characteristic of large-cap companies.
The stronger it is, the higher the market expectations.
Any information below expectations could cause stock price fluctuations.
I believe NVIDIA still has industrial advantages in the future.
But the logic of the rise has shifted from "spotting opportunities" to "verifying growth."
Funds will not keep buying just because of AI.
It needs to see orders, revenue, and profits being delivered continuously.
So what truly determines NVIDIA's space now is not market heat, but the real demand of the AI industry in the coming years.Why are US stocks getting stronger as they rise? What exactly are funds trading?
Recently, the performance of U.S. stocks has clearly exceeded many people's expectations.
Many investors had previously worried about overvaluations and an economic slowdown, but the market did not see a major correction; instead, it continued to strengthen, driven by tech stocks.
I believe the core reason for the current rise in US stocks is not simply emotional stimulation, but that capital has reaffirmed the growth logic.
Over the past year, AI has become the most important main theme in the US stock market.
But now, the market is no longer just speculating on AI concepts; it's searching for companies that can truly generate profits.
Take NVIDIA as an example: its latest quarterly revenue reached $68.1 billion, with its data center business accounting for $62.3 billion, indicating that AI demand is gradually shifting from conceptual to actual commercial growth.
This is also why funds are willing to continue allocating to tech stocks.
The market is not buying a story, but an industrial chain that has already begun to be realized.
Besides AI, expectations of rate cuts are also a key factor driving U.S. stocks.
When the market expects future interest rates to fall, the valuations of growth companies are supported because funding costs decrease and future earnings value is reassessed.
However, I think the biggest risk now is also obvious.
The faster the rise, the higher the market expectations.
If AI investment slows down or corporate earnings fall short of expectations, US stocks could also experience significant volatility.
So now, when looking at US stocks, you can't just look at index movements.
What really needs to be addressed is:
Will funds continue to flow into leading tech companies? Why is the volatility in US stocks increasing while the crypto world is becoming calmer?
Recently, many people have noticed a strange phenomenon.
In the past, people thought the crypto world was the most volatile market, but now, the daily price movements of US tech stocks are sometimes no less than those of the crypto market.
Why has this change occurred?
I believe the main reason is the difference in funding structure.
Currently, the US stock market, especially in the technology sector, is highly concentrated in capital.
A large amount of institutional capital is concentrated in a few leading companies, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and others.
When the market is optimistic about AI, large amounts of capital flow in rapidly.
But when the market shows some concerns—such as interest rate changes, valuation pressures, or declining earnings expectations—funds can quickly adjust.
So the volatility naturally expands.
After multiple cycles, the crypto market structure is changing.
After the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, more and more long-term funds have flowed in.
These funds do not chase highs and sell on dips every day, but operate according to asset allocation logic.
At the same time, many retail investors have exited after several bear markets, and market sentiment is less enthusiastic than before.
Therefore, the decline in BTC volatility is actually a sign of market maturity.
Of course, low volatility also means a lack of momentum for short-term breakthroughs.
A truly major market usually requires new capital inflows and new narratives to emerge.
Currently, the US stock market is trading AI growth.
The crypto world is waiting for the next round of capital consensus.Why can't BTC rise in AI stocks? What exactly is market capital focusing on?
Recently, many investors have felt this way.
Although Bitcoin's price remains strong, its rise is clearly not as fast as that of US AI stocks.
Especially some AI industry chain companies, whose short-term gains have even outpaced many crypto assets.
I think the reason isn't BTC losing value, but rather the market stage is different.
The biggest story in the US stock market right now is the AI industry realizing its potential.
In recent years, the market has been debating whether AI has commercial value, and now capital has seen the answer.
The growth of NVIDIA's data center business is the clearest proof.
Training AI models requires massive computing power, and behind that power lies servers, storage, and power support.
So funds began to spread from core chips to the entire industry chain.
In contrast, Bitcoin's biggest advantage right now is its asset attributes.
It enjoys global recognition and is backed by ETF funding.
But the problem is that it lacks short-term validation metrics like corporate earnings.
The market cannot judge future growth from financial reports; it can only be judged by funding cycles and market sentiment.
Therefore, BTC needs a stronger liquidity environment for its rise.
When interest rates fall, funding costs decrease, and investors are willing to take on more risk, the crypto sector usually gains greater resilience.
The current market is not about who is better, but who better fits current capital preferences.
AI stocks meet institutions' demand for certainty.
BTC, on the other hand, is awaiting the next round of increased risk appetite.In July, the U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 nonfarm payrolls, marking the first negative growth since February this year. The combined data for May and June were sharply revised downward, weakening the resilience of the job market and making the Fed's trade-off between inflation and employment more complex. Recently, the divergence among officials over rate hikes has widened, and the risk premium of monetary policy will continue to be reflected in U.S. Treasury yields and dollar asset valuations. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's July meeting summary sent stronger signals of rate hikes, with some members suggesting a more flexible and even more aggressive approach to policy normalization. The weak yen prompted rare joint foreign exchange market intervention by Japan and the U.S. If further interest rate hike expectations in Japan rise, rising yen arbitrage funding costs could further intensify volatility in overvalued, highly leveraged assets. U.S. Treasuries are in another critical position. Recently, Becente has supported yen intervention, discussed FIMA liquidity tools, and adjusted the wording of long-term Treasury issuance, essentially aiming to ease pressure on the long-term U.S. Treasury market. However, the Treasury's support is limited; what truly determines long-term yields are the inflation path, Federal Reserve policy, and the market's pricing of U.S. fiscal sustainability. The industry side presents a completely different picture. Demand for SpaceX, AI servers, HBM, and NAND remains strong, with corporate capital expenditures continuing to expand. However, after SanDisk and Western Digital's earnings reports, their stock prices plunged, reflecting that the issue is no longer just about "whether performance will grow," but whether companies can continue to exceed already high market expectations. The core contradiction of the AI industry is continuously shifting toward capital efficiency and valuation capacity. Therefore, the market really needs it this week$BICO 跌了1000倍的币该不该补仓？
这两天星球里好多人都在讨论——手里的币跌了上千倍，到底该不该补仓摊低成本？
像 $CORE 、$LAB 、$XCH 、$CFX这些，群里天天有人问。
说实话，这事儿不能一刀切，得看经济模型。
第一种：通胀模型
币价跌了1000倍，但总量也跟着增发了1000倍，总市值根本没缩多少。
这种就是典型的"越跌越买"陷阱——你以为抄底，其实是在给持续放水的池子接盘。
打死都不能补。
第二种：固定总量
总量锁死，价格跌了1000倍，但项目方还在活跃做事。
这种反而可以考虑适当补一点，毕竟筹码成本能摊下来不少。
说白了，先看总量有没有变，再看团队还在不在。
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ "Say Things Without Saying Anything, Say Things Hard When Nothing Matters"
🏗 Current market status
Cracks in the walls have not yet been repaired, but funds have already flowed back in large numbers. Last week, the US BTC spot ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $865 million, hitting a fifteen-week peak; BlackRock IBIT was the core player, absorbing $694 million alone, while ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive weeks, slowly supporting the market.
❌ Retail investors' misconceptions
Most people, seeing huge amounts of money entering the market, immediately assume the market is about to surge in one direction.
In reality, capital entry is just capital stocking, equivalent to building site materials, and does not mean the fundamentals are accepted. No matter how promising the project's vision in the white paper, what determines the long-term level of the market is always the macro foundation. If the foundation is weak, no amount of capital can sustain a sustained rise.
📌 Three Core Fundamentals (Market Foundation Indicators)
1️⃣ Fed rate cut expectations: Controlling the overall funding cost in the market is the most fundamental support
2️⃣ Market panic: Rising risk aversion will directly put pressure on risk assets like crypto
3️⃣ Spot trading volume: Only when sufficient buying orders are executed can the upward structure remain stable
This round of capital inflows only fills the gaps left by previous outflows and does not count as new incremental reinforcements
🛡 Hedge Target· XAUT Gold Token
Like a damping and shock absorber device for high-rise buildings, it experiences weak fluctuations on ordinary days, attracting safe-haven funds to hedge risks during sharp market crashes and severe volatility. No matter how many market tricks there are, it ultimately depends on whether market fluctuations are controllable.
💡 Summary
No matter how lively the market looks, a strong market does not necessarily mean the fundamentals are solid. The main body's foundation is not stable, and the short-term rebound is just a false fire.
Even if funds enter in large quantities, if macro conditions are not met, it will still be difficult to start a long-term bull market.US stocks are surging wildly in AI, but why is DaBing and Erbing actually slowing down?
Recently, many people have noticed a problem.
AI-related stocks such as Nvidia, SanDisk, and Micron performed strongly, but BTC and ETH did not show similar gains.
I believe the reason is not the loss of appeal in crypto, but rather the change in the order in which funds are selected.
Currently, the biggest market theme is AI.
Funds are seeing increased corporate investment, order growth, and profit growth.
In contrast, the crypto world currently lacks a new story that can build global capital consensus.
Although BTC is backed by ETFs, it is more like a long-term asset allocation.
Although ETH's ecosystem is strong, the market is still waiting for new growth catalysts.
So in the short term, funds are more willing to buy assets that have already proven themselves.Wednesday's CPI is honestly quite crucial.
The current expectation is for overall CPI year-on-year to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI from 2.6% to 2.5%. Capital is indeed strong and has come down easily.
But the question is, how much is the price reduction considered sufficient?
This is the real dilemma for the market: whether to raise rates in September, non-farm payrolls have already shifted expectations toward rate cuts, but CPI is the real judge.
If CPI continues to fall, the probability of rate hikes will decline further, and risk assets may surge. If CPI rebounds and rate cut expectations return, the market will have to reprice.
$BTC Still hovering at 65,000 without moving. ETFs have been seeing net inflows; BlackRock made nearly 700 million this week, with money continuously flowing in. But prices just won't push up; 65,000 is like a wall. If CPI cools down, it might catch up, breaking through 66,000 or even 67,000. If CPI rebounds, it might push back to 64,000 or even lower.
$BICO This coin has really worn me out lately. A few days ago, two short orders were both blown up. I opened one at 0.0314 and got pushed up. I was unconvinced and added another order, but it still got pulled up. But last night I guessed I got it right, and this round was a big win. Honestly, I bought a bit too early, didn't fully take it.
$BEAT Fell from 3.4 to 2.6, down nearly 30%. For coins that rise and fall quickly, once volume shrinks, it's hard to chase them. It's best to just watch from the sidelines.
SanDisk is still stuck at 1200 and hasn't taken off. The storage sector's expectations are still correcting. Is storage really beyond saving? All the funds are leaving. Is there anyone who can save SanDisk?
Before the CPI data is released, don't make major position adjustments. It's better to bet on the direction than to wait for the right direction, and wait until the data is realized.
Now is the process of waiting for the results, and Wednesday is the time to decide the outcome.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? 這一輪 SOL 有沒有升溫，可以先用速度回答；市場偏不偏多，則要看另一組數字。 OKX Onchain OS 於 08 月 10 日 17:00 統計到 SOL 一小時 19 次提及，其中 X 19 次、新聞 0 次；二十四小時總量為 447 次。 最新一小時相當於長窗每小時平均的 1.02 倍，也就是幾乎貼近二十四小時的每小時平均，可歸為「大致貼近長窗均值」。這個速度描述的是新增討論，和行情漲跌沒有必然關係。 文本語氣則是偏多 21%、偏空 21%、中性約 58%，目前屬於「多空接近」。二十四小時偏多 52%、偏空 9%；兩個窗口若出現差距，應先理解為討論結構在變，而不是直接推導價格目標。 我會把這兩條線分開畫。語氣偏多、提及速度卻放慢，代表現有討論比較正向，但新注意力沒有加速；提及速度上升、偏空又佔優，則可能是風險或故障消息把人吸引過來。就算熱度和語氣同向，也還不能直接等同真實買盤。 來源是另一項限制。目前 SOL「幾乎全由 X 驅動」。社群渠道反應最快，同一個話題也可能被重複轉發；來源越集中，越需要下一個窗口確認。新聞提及增加也不自動等於事件屬實，原始公告仍是最後的查證基準。 二Why can't BTC ETH rise in SanDisk Micron? What exactly makes the US AI storage market so strong?
Recently, an interesting phenomenon has appeared in the market.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, as core assets in the crypto world, have shown relatively stable performance, but AI storage concept stocks like SanDisk and Micron have seen stronger gains in the US market.
Many investors began to wonder:
Why is it that while both benefited from the tech cycle, the US stock market surged so fiercely, while the crypto world did not erupt in tandem?
I think the core reason is that the trading logic of the two markets is completely different.
The US stock market is currently speculating on "realized growth."
Take SanDisk and Micron as examples—the logic behind this is the increasing demand for AI data centers. As AI models grow larger and servers demand high-speed storage, the storage industry is ushering in new growth expectations.
Micron's latest quarterly revenue reached $9.3 billion, up about 50% year-on-year, with data center business becoming the main growth focus. The market is buying it not just for AI concepts, but for real orders and profit growth.
But BTC and ETH are currently trading under a different logic.
Bitcoin has no corporate profits or quarterly earnings reports; the market focuses more on capital inflows, interest rate changes, ETF demand, and risk appetite.
Ethereum is no exception. Although its ecosystem is huge, the market is still waiting for more applications to grow and capture value.
In short:
U.S. stock funds are looking at the present.
Crypto capital is waiting for the future.
This is also why the recent divergence has occurred. Targeting $200, $LINK Can it really increase 25 times in four years?
According to The Block, Standard Chartered Bank has released its first Chainlink research report and made a rather bold forecast: LINK is expected to rise to $200 by the end of 2030.
At the current price of about $8, the potential increase is close to 25 times.
The core of Zhazha Guangxu is not short-term coin prices, but asset tokenization.
In the future, if assets such as stocks, funds, bonds, and real estate are to be launched on a large scale, smart contracts will need to stably obtain external data such as prices, proof of reserves, and net asset value, and information and assets will need to be transferred between different blockchains.
Chainlink's oracle and CCIP cross-chain protocol are right on this infrastructure chain.
A closer analysis shows that "business is important" does not necessarily mean LINK will rise. The $200 target requires many factors:
- The RWA market is expanding rapidly
- Financial institutions continue to adopt Chainlink
- Increased protocol fees
- Protocol revenue can be converted into LINK purchase or staking demands.
If institutional usage grows but token value cannot be captured by protocol value, price performance may also fall far short of expectations.
$200 is more like a long-term bet on the future scale of asset tokenization, and the logic depends on CCIP trading volume, protocol revenue, staking scale, and real paying customers. Wednesday night at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed 🕗
At 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday, the US July CPI will be released. The market expects overall CPI year-on-year to be 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI to 2.5% year-on-year, both below previous values.
This stone was finally about to fall.
But honestly, what really matters isn't the numbers themselves, but the market's 'repricing' of the numbers. In recent months, the market has been 'predicting' inflation to come down, and BTC has been hovering around 65,000 for nearly two weeks, waiting for this confirmation signal.
If expected or lower: Inflation cooling is confirmed, further lowering the probability of a rate hike in September, and BTC is expected to break through the 65,000-65,500 resistance zone, moving toward 67,000-68,000. After several lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC has rebounded by 5%-8%.
If unexpectedly hawkish: BTC may pull back to 63,500-64,000, but a pullback is also a window to increase positions. The nonfarm payroll has turned negative, credit tightening, and the economy is marginally weakening, so Powell doesn't have much confidence to raise interest rates.
CPI is the fuse, but the direction is already written. At 8:30 PM on Wednesday night, BTC will tell you where it wants to go.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农 $BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? Data no longer matters; what matters is the direction 🧭 of the game
At 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday, July CPI is about to arrive. The market expects overall CPI year-on-year to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI to drop from 2.6% to 2.5%. Nonfarms have already set an example: employment is weakening, inflation is cooling, and this path has been going on for some time.
The direction of expectations is already very consistent. The data and expectations are not far off; what the market is really competing with is not the numbers themselves, but whether funds will interpret the data as a "confirmation signal" or "positive news will be realized" after the data is released.
Two directions, two scripts:
If the data meets expectations or is lower—confirming cooling inflation, further weakening rate hike expectations, weakening the dollar, and lowering US Treasury yields. After several lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC has risen 5%-8% on the same day. BTC is highly likely to break through the 65,000-65,500 resistance zone, with Ethereum showing greater resilience; it should break below 1,920-1,930, with the next target at 2,000.
If the data is unexpectedly high—the market will panic in the short term, BTC could pull back to 63,500-64,000, and Ethereum is heavily leveraged, so the price swing is much harder than BTC. But it's not a big problem, because the nonfarm payrolls have turned negative, credit is tightening, and the economy is weakening marginally, Powell doesn't have the confidence to raise rates. A pullback is an opportunity.
BTC has been grinding around the 65,000 level for two weeks, not because it's weak, but because it's waiting for a signal.
The resistance zone between 65,000 and 65,500 is indeed tough—since June, it has been repeatedly tested and pushed back. But this time is different from previous ones: the background has changed. Inflation has declined for four consecutive months, employment has started to turn negative, and institutions have already bought $854 million in ETFs a week before the CPI release.
CPI is not the endpoint, but the fuse.
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday night, the market will give you the answer. You don't need to bet in advance; just follow after confirming the direction.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? The data speaks, but the direction is already written 📝
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the July CPI will be released.
The expected values are already on the table: overall CPI year-on-year 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, both below previous values. Nonfarm payrolls have already fallen first—July employment decreased by 23,000, with a total downward revision of 103,000 for the first two months.
Data speaks for itself, but trends have long said the story.
Inflation has shifted from 4.2% → 3.5% → 3.4%, employment has shifted from "strong" to "negative," credit is tightening, and the economy is weakening at the margin. These lines converge and point in the same direction. CPI is just a reconfirmation of this direction, not a new path.
The market has already reacted early. Over the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock alone absorbed $694 million. Institutions don't heavily bet in uncertain directions; what they read is more complete than the CPI itself—it's the trend.
BTC has been grinding at 65,000 for two weeks, not because it's weak, but because it's waiting for a signal.
The 65,000 level has been repeatedly tested since June. Every drop is caught by the drop, every surge is pushed back. It's not that it can't break through, it's just that the time hasn't come yet.
CryptoQuant analysts predict the August range at 57,700-67,000. If it holds above 67,000, the next stop will be 71,000-74,000. As long as ETH holds BTC at 65,000, 2,000 is not a dream.
CPI is the fuse, not the direction itself. The direction is already written in the trend.
Wednesday night at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed. You don't need to bet in advance; just follow after confirming the direction.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? On the eve of the CPI release, the real answer lies not in the data itself, but in how the Federal Reserve interprets it 📋
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the July CPI will be released.
The expectations are already very unified: overall CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. These figures have been repeatedly digested, digested, and priced in by the market over the past few weeks—if they only meet expectations, at best it can be considered "scripted as planned," neither surprising nor shocking.
But the real question to consider is not "how much data will there be," but "how the Federal Reserve will interpret this data."
Nonfarms have already set the example—July employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, with the previous total revised down by 103,000. Employment is weakening, credit is tightening, and inflation is cooling. These three lines converge more convincingly than any single data point.
Divisions have already emerged within the Federal Reserve. At the July meeting, three voting committee members advocated for an immediate rate hike. But the disagreement itself reveals one thing: consensus is loosening, and direction is wavering. And once the direction begins to waver, it is good for risk assets.
The market has already invested money in advance.
Over the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. Institutions entered the market before the data was released. They weren't betting on CPI; they understood the trend—inflation fell from 4.2% to 3.5%, then to 3.4%, and the direction was set.
What do you do next?
BTC has been grinding around the 65,000 level for almost two weeks; the resistance zone between 6,000 and 65,500 is indeed tough, and it has been pushed back through multiple tests. But the longer it hones, the stronger the momentum once a direction is chosen. CryptoQuant analysts estimate the August range as $57,700-$67,000. Hold above 67,000, next stop at 71,000-74,000. As long as ETH holds BTC at 65,000, $2,000 is not a dream.
CPI is just a fuse. The real direction is the shift in the interest rate cycle.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? On the eve of the CPI release, the market had already revealed its trump card 🃏
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the US July CPI is set to arrive.
The market expects overall CPI year-on-year to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. Nonfarm payrolls have already set an example—July employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, after the previous two months' data was revised down by 103,000. Employment is weakening, inflation is cooling, and the direction is consistent.
But what's truly interesting isn't the expectation itself—it's that the market has already digested it.
Over the past week, BTC has been steadily sideways near 65,000, neither rushing nor selling. Both bulls and bears are waiting, neither willing to act first. The 65,000 level has been sideways for almost half a month; after volume rises, it shrinks, after shrinking, it sideways again, with the focus slowly shifting upward. The low point is gradually rising, indicating selling pressure is weakening and some are quietly accumulating shares.
The market has already given its answer in advance: over the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. Institutions are making their decisions with real money—their bets are clear.
CPI is only the last confirmation signal.
If the data meets expectations or even lowers: Inflation cooling is confirmed, rate hike expectations further weaken, and BTC is very likely to break through the 65,000-65,500 resistance zone. After several lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC has risen 5%-8% on the same day, showing greater ETH resilience. Next is to look for 2,000.
If the data is unexpectedly high: a short-term shock is inevitable, but a pullback actually presents an opportunity. The nonfarm payroll has turned negative, credit is tightening, the economy is weakening at the margin, and Powell lacks confidence to raise rates.
There are basically two outcomes for CPI, but there is only one direction.
Wednesday night at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed. The direction of the market will emerge on its own; you just need to see where it is headed and then follow up.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? On the eve of CPI, BTC hovered around 65,000 for a week, which actually made 📦 me feel more confident
BTC is firmly holding above $65,000, with a weekly gain of about 3%. The candlestick appears calm, but the underlying currents are more interesting than the price itself.
Over the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking their best performance since mid-April. BlackRock alone bought $694 million. It's not retail investors rushing, but institutions are voting early—they bet inflation will continue to decline and rate hike expectations will be further weakened.
But on the other hand, the Panic & Greed Index remains in the 31-32 panic range, and Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has lasted for 82 days. Funds are flowing in, sentiment is fearing—a typical feature on the eve of a market change.
There are basically two outcomes for CPI, but there is only one direction.
This CPI is the last core macro indicator before the September FOMC. Expectations are unanimous: overall CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%.
If the data meets expectations or even lowers: confirming inflation cooling, the probability of a rate hike in September will further decrease, and BTC is very likely to break through the 65,000-65,500 resistance zone. After several lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC has gained 5%-8% on the same day. ETH is more resilient; next look at 2,000.
If the data is unexpectedly high: a short-term sentiment shock is inevitable, and BTC may pull back to 63,500-64,000. But even with a hawkish bias, the probability of a real rate hike in September is low—the nonfarm payrolls have already set the example: July employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, credit tightening and marginal economic weakness are three factors weighing it down.
CPI is not the endpoint, but the fuse.
The longer the 65,000 level holds, once the direction is chosen, the stronger the momentum. It's either up or down; there's no third path.
Wednesday night at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed. You don't need to bet in advance; just follow after confirming the direction.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? On the eve of the CPI index, the market had already emerged from a "contradictory rally"—funds were rushing to the front, and sentiment was still panicking 🧩
BTC is firmly holding above $65,000, with a weekly gain of about 3%. It seems calm, but the underlying currents are more worth pondering than candlesticks.
Two forces were pulling at each other.
The first force is money. In the first week of August, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock IBIT alone absorbed $694 million. This isn't retail investors rushing; institutions are using real money to make a statement—they bet inflation will continue to decline and rate hike expectations will be further weakened.
The second force is sentiment. The Panic and Greed Index is still hovering in the 31-32 panic range, and Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has lasted for 82 days. Funds are flowing in, sentiment is fearful—a typical feature on the eve of a market change. While most people's emotions are still in panic, smart money is quietly readjusting.
There are basically two outcomes for CPI, but the market's reaction is what truly matters.
This CPI is the last core macro indicator before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Market expectations are unanimous: overall CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. If the data meets expectations or even lowers, confirming inflation cooling, the probability of a rate hike in September will further decrease, and BTC is expected to break through the 65,000-67,000 range. After several previous lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC rose 5%-8% on the same day.
If the data unexpectedly exceeds expectations and inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations may resurface. However, even with a hawkish stance, the probability of a real rate hike in September is low—the nonfarm payrolls have already set an example: employment in July unexpectedly fell by 23,000.
CPI is not the endpoint, but the fuse.
BTC hovered around the 65,000 mark for a week, neither rising nor falling. The resistance zone between 65,000 and 65,500 is indeed tough—since June, it has been repeatedly tested and pushed back. But this time is different from previous times: the background has changed. Inflation peaked at 4.2% in May, then dropped to 3.5% in June, and then to the expected 3.4% in July—four consecutive months of decline. The data stays on one track, with no change in direction.
Now is not the time to guess direction, but to wait and confirm direction.
Wednesday night at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed. You don't need to bet in advance; just follow after confirming the direction. Let the data tell you the answer, let the candlestick chart tell you the direction.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? This week's coverage of CLARITY Act's stalled timeline has repeatedly pointed to an unresolved ethics provision as the core obstacle. Understanding that dispute requires understanding the story it's actually about and this month brought two developments that put real detail behind it. $TRUMP, the memecoin launched under President Trump's name, reached a peak market capitalization near $9 billion and a price of $73.43 on January 19, 2025, the day before his second inauguration. Trump OrganizationOn the eve of the CPI, the market had already "voted" 🗳️ in advance
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the July CPI will be released.
In fact, the market has already given the answer in advance—not through the opinions of any particular analyst, but through the actual flow of funds.
Over the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock IBIT alone contributed $694 million. This isn't retail investors rushing; institutions are making real money their way forward. Their bets are clear—inflation continues to decline, and expectations for rate hikes are further weakened.
Meanwhile, the Panic & Greed Index is still hovering in the 31-32 range, and Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has lasted 82 days, setting a new record for the longest streak. Funds are flowing in, sentiment is fearing—a typical feature on the eve of a market change. While most people's emotions are still in panic, smart money is quietly readjusting.
There are basically two outcomes for CPI, but the market's reaction is what truly matters.
If the data meets expectations (even somewhat dovish): if inflation cools and the probability of a rate hike in September is further reduced, BTC will most likely attempt to break through the resistance zone of 65,000-65,500. After several lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC has risen 5%-8% on the same day. ETH is more elastic, likely to break below 1,920-1,930, with the next target being 2,000.
If the data turns to a hawkish tone: inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, the dollar strengthens, risk assets face short-term pressure, and BTC could pull back to 63,500-64,000. But even if the data is hawkish, the probability of a rate hike in September is low—marginal employment weakening, credit tightening, and overall inflation trending downward, Powell has no reason to push prices further. So a pullback is actually a window to increase positions.
Now is not the time to guess direction, but to wait and confirm direction.
BTC hovered around the 65,000 mark for a week, neither going up nor down. The resistance zone between 65,000 and 65,500 is indeed tough, and since June, it has been repeatedly tested and pushed back. But this time there is one difference from previous ones: the background has changed. The non-farm payrolls have already set an example—employment in July unexpectedly fell by 23,000, and the previous two months' data was revised down by 103,000 in total. Inflation peaked at 4.2% in May, then dropped to 3.5% in June, and then to the expected 3.4% in July—four consecutive months of decline. The data stays on one track, with no change in direction.
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the data was released. No matter the outcome, the market will give its answer. You don't need to bet in advance; just follow after the direction is confirmed.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? $XSNDK $SNDK
SanDisk Corporation (stock code: SNDK) is currently trading at high levels around $1,197.00 – $1,212.00.
After being spun off and listed separately from Western Digital (WDC), SNDK benefited from the explosive demand for high-capacity NAND Flash and Enterprise SSDs in AI servers, leading to a sharp rise in its stock price. It is currently in the "high profit-taking and chip consolidation" phase following the earnings release.
Three Key Drivers and Fundamental Analysis
1. Earnings beat expectations, but guidance sets high standards to pull the strings
SanDisk's latest financial report shows that, driven by strong demand for AI data center storage, quarterly revenue and profit both surged exponentially, and the board of directors also approved a $14 billion stock buyback program. However, due to extremely high market expectations for its future growth, the next quarter's guidance failed to meet some of Wall Street's most aggressive forecasts, triggering short-term profit-taking pressure.
2. AI data centers are driving NAND supply shortages
Similar to Micron's (MU) popularity in the DRAM/HBM sector, SNDK holds a very high market share in the high-end Enterprise SSD (Enterprise Solid-State Drive) sector. The wave of large cloud service providers (CSPs) and AI server deployments continues to consume large amounts of NAND Flash capacity, driving up product contract prices and gross margins sharply.
3. Business model transformation (long-term contract NBM)
The company actively promotes "New Business Models (NBMs)," signing multi-year supply agreements with leading data center companies and collecting advance payments. This long-term model locks in capacity and pricing significantly reduces the risk of large, volatile fluctuations in the traditional memory industry.
Trading advice: As a core heavyweight in the AI storage supply chain, SNDK's fundamentals remain very strong. In the short term, expectations after earnings have corrected. For investors optimistic about the AI memory supercycle in the medium to long term, consider establishing long-term regular investments or buying positions on dips in the $1,050–$1,180 range; For short-term trading, watch whether the price can stop falling at the $1,180 support line and return above $1,300. On the eve of the CPI, BTC hovered around the 65,000 threshold for a week, and everyone held their breath 🤫
At 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday night, the US July CPI is about to arrive.
Market expectations are clear: overall CPI fell from 3.5% year-on-year to 3.4%, up 0.1% month-on-month; Core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, up 0.2% month-on-month. The Cleveland Fed's real-time forecast model also largely aligns — overall CPI rose 0.09% month-on-month and 3.42% year-on-year, while core CPI rose 0.21% month-on-month and 2.52% year-on-year.
The drop isn't big, but the direction is downward.
And this trend is more important than the numbers themselves. Nonfarm payrolls have already set the example—July employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, after the previous two months' data was revised down by 103,000. Inflation peaked at 4.2% in May, dropped to 3.5% in June, and then to the expected 3.4% in July—four consecutive months of decline. The data stays on one track, with no change in direction.
Employment weakened, inflation has fallen—how much confidence is left for a rate hike in September?
After the nonfarm payroll release, the market has pushed the probability of a September rate hike down from over 60% to around 40%. Bank of America still insists on the view that "rate hikes will start in September," stating that "the Fed pays much more attention to CPI than to the jobs report." But Wells Fargo's chief economist believes the entire year of 2026 will remain unchanged. There is also an internal dispute within the Fed—three voting committee members advocated for an immediate rate hike at the July meeting, marking the first time since 2016 that three votes against it.
The boot hangs in midair, and the market is even more tangled than the Fed.
Now let's look at BTC's position: $65,093, up nearly 3% for the week. ETH at $1,919. Over the past few weeks, BTC has been grinding in the 64,000-65,000 range, neither going up nor down. It's not that the bulls aren't strong, but the resistance zone at 65,000-65,500 is too tough—since June, it has been repeatedly tested and pulled back.
CPI is the key.
Scenario 1: Expected or dovish (Core CPI ≤ 2.5%)
Inflation cooling confirms further pressure on the probability of a rate hike in September → a weaker dollar→ → US Treasury yields fall→ BTC is expected to break through the 65,000-67,000 range. After several lower-than-expected CPI releases, BTC has risen 5%-8% on the same day. Ethereum is more resilient; it should break below 1,920-1,930, with the next target at 2,000. On the gold side, spot gold breaking above $4,350 should not be a problem.
Scenario 2: Unexpectedly hawkish (core CPI jumps above 2.6%)
Inflation stickiness is higher than expected→ with expectations of a rate hike in September surging again→ a stronger dollar→ putting pressure on risk assets→ BTC may pull back to 63,500-64,000. Ethereum is heavily leveraged and can be much harder to crash than BTC. However, even with a hawkish stance, the probability of a real rate hike in September is low—weakening employment, tightening credit, and overall downward inflation are all weighing on the market.
Smart money is already moving.
In the first week of August, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock IBIT contributed $694 million. Paradoxically, however, the Panic & Greed Index still hovers in the 31-32 panic range, with Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium lasting 82 days, setting a new historical record.
Funds are flowing in, sentiment is fearing—a typical feature on the eve of a market change.
My judgment is simple: as long as the price jump isn't outrageous, the September rate hike can be put behind the scenes.
The longer BTC is worn down at the 65,000 level, the stronger the momentum once the direction is chosen. CryptoQuant analysts set the August range at $57,700–$67,000. If it holds above 67,000, the next stop will be 71,000–74,000.
As long as ETH holds BTC at 65,000, $2,000 is not a dream.
Bitcoin is waiting for the certainty signal of interest rate cuts, not the CPI itself. But the CPI may be the fuse.
Wait and see. Wednesday night at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农 #9月加息 $BTC #本周三CPI公布: Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? 【法老看盘】
都在问法老，这协议不是快签了吗，油价怎么又飙了？法老直接说，协议是快签了，但离“落地”还差十万八千里，伊朗这波操作直接把球踢回给了美国，油价的风险溢价自然降不下来。
先看发生了什么。
伊朗跟阿曼确实谈得差不多了，双方接近敲定一条经过伊朗领海的新临时航道。伊朗外长阿拉格齐也证实了，“已进入最后阶段”。
但真正让油价绷紧的，是伊朗随后补的那一刀。
伊朗外长明确说了，跟阿曼的协议不代表海峡会立即重开，重开与否取决于美国能不能满足一系列条件。条件包括停止军事行动、解除海上封锁、撤销全部制裁、赔偿战争损失等。这哪是条件，这分明是把球踢回给美国，美方短期内根本不可能全盘接受。
油价走势已经说明了一切。
布伦特原油连续三天累计反弹超5%，重新逼近85美元。而且不光是海峡的事，胡塞武装又跳出来宣称攻击了沙特的炼油厂，阿布扎比国家石油公司的船只在通过海峡时也遭到了袭击。
法老怎么看？
协议利好早就被市场消化了，但伊朗这波操作等于告诉市场：协议没落地，别高兴太早。油价短期大概率还得在地缘政治的高压锅里反复震荡。
关注法老，财富不迷路！$BTC $ETH $BICO #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ #伯克希尔结束净卖出, restart large-scale allocations
Damn! Abel finally pulled that pile of cash out of the safe.
With Berkshire Hathaway's latest quarterly report released, those still glued to Buffett's old script probably fell silent.
The old trick of only selling but not buying for fourteen consecutive quarters was completely broken. In Q2, net stock purchases were nearly $20 billion, buying $23.5 billion, selling $3.7 billion, with a net increase of nearly $20 billion.
Cash dropped from a peak of nearly 400 billion to around 365 billion. New boss Greg Abel started spending the pile of spare money Buffett had saved for decades in his second full quarter.
Net profit doubled to over 25.6 billion yuan, which looks great, but it's all investment gains supporting the scene. Truly reliable operating profit rose 16%. Manufacturing, services, retail, railways, and energy sectors are doing okay, but insurance underwriting is declining, and Gaike is especially in poor condition. The cooling of core businesses is the real pitfall to be watched.
Three major investments were poured in: first, it spent 10 billion yuan in private equity to force Google's parent company Alphabet, pushing it from a marginal position into the top five; Then it spent 4.5 billion yuan to buy its own stock, with quarterly buybacks reaching its peak in recent years; Finally, it spent 6.8 billion yuan in cash to swallow residential developer Taylor Morrison.
It's not about buying up stocks at full capacity, but about picking and attacking. The top five have shifted to Google, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola, with technology weighting clearly rising, and traditional moat stocks giving way to the market.
A well-known analyst on X believes this shouldn't be taken as a comprehensive bullish signal; there are still over 360 billion yuan in cash left, which is called selective selling, not suddenly thinking the market is cheap.
Some think Abel is just labeling himself—buying stocks, buying backs, acquiring physical entities—pushing all three lines together, turning the "waiting, not buying" giant from the Buffett era into someone who has started to act.
Berkshire has historically been aggressive when extremely undervalued, but this time it cut near the S&P high. Money comes from Treasuries and cash, flows into the stock market and its own stocks, plus a physical acquisition.
The signal was clear: Abel no longer wanted to be the cash custodian. But the insurance business was shrinking, cash was still absurdly high, and whether the next big move would continue depends on whether he truly has Buffett's vision.
It's too early to draw conclusions, but the direction has changed. The Berkshire that once guarded the vault without spending a penny is now being forcibly turned by the new boss into a machine that spends money around.
As for whether the money was well spent, the market will give you real money for the answer.August 10, 2026: In-depth review and outlook of Bitcoin and Ethereum market trends
Market Status: Volume shrinking and converging, a market shift imminent
This week, the cryptocurrency market entered a typical "calm before the storm" phase. Over the past seven trading days, Bitcoin's price has been trapped within an extremely narrow range between $64,000 and $65,500, with volatility hitting a nearly three-month low. This extreme convergence pattern usually signals that the market is accumulating momentum, waiting for external forces to break the balance.
1. Macroeconomic Game: Non-farm payrolls expire, CPI takes over pricing power
Last Friday's nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly fell far short of expectations, pushing the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September to over 70%. However, risk assets (including US stocks and BTC) did not show the expected euphoria, instead showing signs of "good news being exhausted" in fatigue. This indicates that the core market contradiction has shifted from "liquidity expectations" to a tug-of-war between "recession risk" and "inflation stickiness."
2. On-chain and capital side: divergence signals appear
· ETF Capital Movement: Despite stagnant prices, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $850 million on Monday (August 9), marking a nearly one-month high. This data clearly diverges from the sluggish price, suggesting that traditional institutional funds are executing left-side positions below $65,000.
· Demand indicators turn positive: On-chain data shows that the number of new active addresses and the change rate of long-term holders' positions have turned positive, and short-term holders (STH) selling is nearly exhausted. However, this "bottom-holding" force is more reflected in defense rather than proactive assault.
3. Major Upside Barrier: Massive trapped holdings suppress rebound potential
The current rebound is struggling fundamentally because over 3 million BTC in unrealized loss chips have accumulated in the $67,000-72,000 range above. This means that unless there is an extremely positive catalyst beyond expectations, every step of price increase faces heavy selling pressure from uneven positions. Moreover, recurring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also limited the willingness of safe-haven funds to flood into high-risk assets.
4. Microstructure: Low volatility dominated by quantitative trading
Currently, the market is in a "grid oscillation" mode, dominated by subjective traders leaving and quantitative robots dominating. The decline in liquidity depth makes prices prone to brief spikes from large orders, but soon returns to the center. In this environment, trend-following strategies fail, and both bulls and bears are waiting for clear signals to break through.
5. Key variables: Three scenarios for Wednesday's CPI
The key to market trends is now entirely tied to the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released at 20:30 on Wednesday (August 12). Based on the data, we deduce three paths:
· Path One (lower than expected, high probability): If core CPI month-on-month falls below 0.15%, the market will reprice the "soft landing + rate cut" logic. BTC is highly likely to break through the $65,500-$66,000 resistance zone and quickly climb to $68,000 to test the strength of the trapped market. This is a bullish scenario.
· Path Two (in line with expectations, probability is neutral): Data matches expectations, and the market will fall into a "data dependence" dilemma. BTC may briefly rally to attract bullish moments before pulling back, maintaining a consolidation range, and may even test the $62,000 support before rebounding due to liquidity hunting.
· Path 3 (Unexpected rebound, low probability): If core CPI exceeds 0.3% month-on-month, rate cut expectations will be completely shattered and concerns about "stagflation" will arise. In this scenario, BTC should be wary of the risk of a guillotine; the $64,000 support may be breached, with the primary correction target at $62,000 or even $60,800.
6. Ethereum's dilemma of following declines but not rising prices
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is showing a weaker performance. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken below the key support at 0.048, and on-chain gas fees have dropped to historic lows, reflecting weak mainnet activity after Layer 2 expansion. In the short term, ETH's resistance above is focused on $3,200, while support below is at the $3,000 round. If BTC breaks upward, ETH has a catch-up opportunity, but the momentum is expected to be weaker than Bitcoin.
Recommended trading strategies
· Trend Investors: Recommend short or light positions and wait for Wednesday's CPI high-volume candlestick as a basis for entry. If the right breaks below $66,000, you can take a light position and buy long; if it falls below $64,000, you should decisively avoid risk.
· Spot holders: Consider reducing positions in batches between $66,000 and $67,000 to hedge potential negative factors; If CPI falls short of expectations, patiently hold and wait for profits to take profit after it rises above $68,000.
Summary: The current shrinking volume sideways consolidation is the calm before the major battle. Wednesday's CPI data is not only a guiding light for macro policy but also the only breaker to break BTC's current deadlock. Before the data is released, any directional bet carries a highly gambling-like nature; waiting patiently for guidance is the best strategy.
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(Note: The date in this article has been unified to August 10, 2026, based on contextual logic, and the CPI release date is August 12.) ）The first round of lifting the ban didn't collapse, but that doesn't mean the following rounds can hold 📦 up
On August 6, SPCX saw its first large-scale unlocking after listing—911.5 million shares, with a market value of about $114 billion at the time, equivalent to 1.4 times the circulating share. The market originally expected a wave of fierce selling, but instead of falling, the stock price rose, closing up 6.14% at $114.92 on the unlocking day.
But this is only the first step in the nine-stage unlocking mechanism.
There are still several tough battles ahead. According to the timeline disclosed in the prospectus:
· August 20: About 319 million shares unlocked
· September: Divided into two batches (around September 9/10 and September 24/25), each about 7%
· October: Divided into two batches (around October 9/10, October 24/25), each about 7%
· December 8: The 180-day lock-up period ends, with the largest batch of tradable shares surging to 5.33 billion shares
· June 2027: About 6.4 billion Class A common shares held by Musk will be unlocked
September and October combined approached 1.4 billion shares, more than the first round's 911.5 million shares. The real supply shock is yet to come.
The bears haven't cleared out either.
As of August 6, about 36% of the SPCX outstanding shares had been shorted. Before the earnings report, short sellers quickly increased their short positions, with short positions reaching 219.3 million shares as of July 29, accounting for 34% of publicly traded shares. Other data shows about 300 million short positions.
But bears have two sides — the stock price rises on the day of the lock-up is partly due to short covering. If insiders release shares in bulk after the lock-up is lifted, short sellers will have more ammunition; If selling pressure is not as strong as imagined, bears may continue to be forced back.
My view: Just because the first round of bans was lifted and they can hold out doesn't mean they can hold up in the following rounds as well.
The reason the first unlocking didn't collapse is because the 13.6% plunge after the earnings report had already priced in some of the negative news, and the day of the unlocking actually became a 'negative news realization.' There was indeed strong capital support around $105-110. But each unlocking was a new supply shock—700 million shares in September, 700 million shares in October—more than the first round, and the chips kept pouring out.
Institutional views are also clearly divided. Morgan Stanley sees the unlocking as an entry point, maintaining an overweight rating with a target price of $300. However, Piper Sandler warns that the unlocking pressure will continue until summer 2027. Argus also pointed out that future rounds of unlocking may bring more selling pressure.
At SPCX, it's cheap (already halved from a high of $225), but expensive (depends on your calculations). There are still several rounds of unlocking ahead, so I won't heavily bet at this level. First, observe how the next rounds absorb the unlocking and wait for the chip structure to stabilize. No rush to rush in, no rush to exit.
#SPCX #SpaceX #解禁 #空头 $BTC $#本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? The last shrinkage crack on the load-bearing wall hadn't even sealed wax yet, but the pumping truck was already booming again—last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF tower poured $865 million worth of concrete, setting a record for the highest pumping volume in fifteen weeks. BlackRock's IBIT main tower crane single-handedly lifted 694 million yuan of steel strands; The Ethereum spot ETF saw a fifth consecutive net inflow, welding the boom segments into the main structure like a roof truss.
Outsiders would think the skyscraper was about to be topped out. But to me, it was just a morning report of materials entering the site. The white paper was a rendering from the design institute, with color plans, bird's-eye views, and glass curtain wall reflections so beautiful it could win awards; But what truly determined the building's survival was never the curves on the drawings, but the foundation raft on the bearing layer. Net ETF inflow meant the general contractor began cutting materials, indicating the capital department was willing to transport concrete to the site—but that was all. On the site supervision records, the words "material warehousing" couldn't be circled in red, because that was just material intake, not acceptance. The pace of material entry could be very aggressive, with pump trucks filling the entire red line area. If the pile foundation hadn't penetrated the silty soil, no amount of concrete would only form a pier with no friction underground.
Whether this building can continue to grow taller is determined by three sets of hard indicators in the geological report. First, the thickness of the sustaining layer for interest rate expectations—the Fed's geological drilling shows that whether the rate-cut cycle has truly entered the dense sand layer determines subsequent funding costs. Second, the lateral earth pressure coefficient of risk sentiment—when the fear index rises, the envelope must endure the active earth pressure from the entire market against a crash. Third, the spacing between bearing piles in spot market trading volume—only when the pile ends enter the medium-dense pebble layer can tensile force be converted into anchoring force. Last week's capital inflow provided ample material reserves for the site, but the pumping volume not seen in fifteen weeks may just mean refilling the original foundation pit, not reinforcement.
Another hidden project worth noting is the US stock gold token XAUT. It is like a viscous damper in a supertall building, normally not participating in vertical load-bearing but absorbing energy during wind vortex vibrations and seismic displacement. The linkage between ETF capital returns and safe-haven assets is changing the dynamic characteristics of entire buildings—you can change the facade in any style, including parametric curtain walls, dual-surface ventilation, or even sky courtyards, but structural engineers only care about one variable: after peak acceleration passes through the damper, can the inter-story displacement angle be controlled within the elastic range of the main frame?
I closed the blueprint, picked up the laser rangefinder, and headed to the site. The tower's facade reflected dazzling light, but any licensed architect knew that turning on the lights didn't mean powering on. Contractors often tuned the nighttime light strips to be colorful before the main structure reached zero—for drones to see, not for geological survey reports.
Just because a hundred pump trucks roar simultaneously at the site doesn't mean the geological report approves you to build two hundred floors here #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $MU Short positions gain 135% unfolded profit—I just ask if the brothers who follow suit are attractive?
A few days ago, the clear hand was telling the short market, saying that a high price followed by a pullback is a trap for the long, and the old story of storing long bulls is just fooling newbies. Some even insisted on rushing in to buy the dip. Now the market has proven us wrong, and the bulls have been struck so hard they can't even lift their heads. Our short positions have steadily secured a 135% floating profit.
Don't think the drop is over—the crash is just beginning. Here's a few sets of data to make it clear: Looking at the market, from the high of 928.98, it closed lower in 6 days over 10 trading days, with a cumulative drawdown of nearly 5%; Yesterday, the surge to 891.24 was immediately hit by a long upper shadow, with volume down and volume shrinking during rebounds, with major players selling off without hesitation. To be even more straightforward, the main funds had a net outflow of $450 million in the first three days, with only 158 million yuan returning in a single day of rebound, then another net outflow of 145 million—clearly driving up and selling off; insiders cashed out $169.4 million in the past three months, yet they themselves don't believe in any long-term bull myth.
Institutions have quietly turned around, with Citibank directly cutting the target price from $1,400 to $1,150—an 18% cut. The industry is even harsher: the momentum for storage price hikes is narrowing quarter by quarter, with the price peak likely in Q2 next year; SK Hynix is spending $38.15 billion to expand production, domestic storage capacity is also ramping up, and supply-demand reversal is just one window away—the red light for the cycle peak has long been lit.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the courage to turn the tables when the crowd is bustling. Holding a short position steadily means a rebound is an opportunity to increase positions.
The above is only a personal trading experience and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for the September rate hike be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? $SPCX
Recently, it's been a typical short squeeze trend, since the unlocked on August 6 was heavily bearish, and the stock price had fallen for a month straight, accumulating massive short sales. It's like a powder blazer—just one match away from litting.
Recent consecutive positive developments:
1. The Terafab chip factory looks very futuristic and designed
2. Argus is pushed up to buy on Thursday, target price 160 (does not mean it will be reached)
3. Cursor's $60 billion deal is reportedly due this week
4. Cathie Wood added $13.2 million
All of these are continuously heating up and igniting step by step
Because another batch of new unlocks is coming on August 20, it's actually not good to be bullish after the rally. Although this unlock is smaller than on August 6, the level of panic may be noticeably lower. But I think the maximum of 145 this round is about right. Since I'm stuck around 160, I plan to open the same number of short positions to lock in floating losses around 140, wait for a pullback and stabilization, then close the market and wait for the next rebound to break even.
But this is just an ideal plan. Who knows if this guy will keep surging and blowing wildly; we'll have to wait and see.
And pay attention to the post-market closing on Monday, August 10
$RKLB
The earnings report is about to be released, making this a good opportunity to verify whether the space sector is fundamentally driven by fundamentals or pure rotation. SPCX is very likely to move in coordination. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? 美股上涨 币圈震荡 资金为什么选择了另一边
最近市场出现一个明显背离。
美股科技股持续受到资金关注，但币圈却没有同步上涨。
我觉得核心原因是资金正在寻找确定性。
AI产业目前已经进入兑现阶段。
英伟达数据中心业务增长，让市场看到AI需求不是简单概念，而是真实商业增长。
但币圈很多项目依然处于预期阶段。
BTC需要等待流动性改善。
山寨币需要等待新的市场叙事。
所以资金自然优先进入已经证明自己的方向。
这不是币圈没有机会。
而是资金顺序发生变化。Why is BTC's rise weak? Has the capital really left the crypto world?
Recently, the biggest feeling in the crypto world can be summed up in one word:
Cold.
Many people have noticed that while US tech stocks keep strengthening, BTC and most altcoins have not shown any significant breakthroughs.
I think many people misunderstand the current market.
It's not that funds are leaving the crypto world, but that capital choices have become more cautious.
In previous bull markets, funds would spread from BTC to ETH, then flow into a large number of altcoins.
But now, the market structure has changed.
Bitcoin ETFs have brought in more institutional capital, which is more focused on long-term allocation rather than short-term speculation.
At the same time, the AI rally in US stocks attracted a large amount of risk capital.
The growth in performance of companies like Nvidia has given capital more definite opportunities.
So now the market has emerged:
Certainty in stock trading.
The crypto world awaits a catalyst.
What truly determines BTC's direction going forward is not just price, but whether capital raises risk appetite again.USDC季末流通量降至733亿美元且环比下滑4.8%，凸显存量资金回撤压力，而9月16日Arc主网上线能否承接机构增量成为流动性转折的关键。
USDC季末流通量回落至733亿美元，环比4.8%的缩减直接压制了短期链上现货的资金承接力。虽然平均流通量同比保持25%的增长，但季末数据的收缩表明阶段性流动性处于净流出状态。
驱动资金流向的主次逻辑在于存量赎回压力与新结算通道的预期博弈。贝莱德、DTCC、Visa及万事达进入Arc创始验证者阵容，决定了中长期传统资金接入的渠道深度，而短期资金出逃则直观反映在活跃结算量的停滞上。
上行剧本建立在增量资金顺利入场的假设上。若9月16日Arc公共主网上线后，传统机构将代币化资产与RWA结算需求快速转化为链上流动性，733亿美元的流通量底部将被确认，资金流向将由净流出转为持续补充。观察变量为Arc上线后链上实际沉淀的结算资金量，若该数据未能按期回升，增量逻辑即告失效。
下行剧本反映出增量兑现受阻的风险。若Arc主网启动后未能带动机构资金大规模划转，环比4.8%的失血趋势可能延续，进而挤压稳定币的整体沉淀规模。触发条件为主网上线后机构结算通道未产生实际资金流，失效信号则是季末流通量重新向上突破年内高点。
平均流通量25%的同比增长指标设定了中期防线，只要该数据维持正向增量，整体流动性就不至于出现结构性断裂。若环比降幅进一步扩大并侵蚀同比增幅，市场流动性溢价将面临全面下修。
未来7天需重点跟踪Arc公共主网上线前的资金流转沉淀，以及733亿美元基准线附近的流通量变化。
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温Guys, the strangest thing about BTC and $ETH ETH these past two days isn't that they can't fall or rise.
The fluctuations were getting narrower, as if someone was holding their breath.
My own judgment is simple: this is most likely the end of the market shift. At times like this, don't get carried away—stay clear-headed and wait for it to choose its own direction.
ETH is even more interesting.
ETF inflows totaled $243.7 million over five days, and $92.1 million in just one Thursday day—the data looks pretty solid.
But the price was still hovering around 1909, and 1935 just couldn't break up.
I don't treat consecutive inflows as a direct reversal signal, which sets me apart from many people.
Holding 1900, the bulls still have face; If 1935 fails, there are still people holding the price higher.
Once 1885 is broken, those chasing ETFs will be hit first, and 1850 will most likely be seen again.
What I was watching wasn't the table turning green.
I was focused on how long it would take to give me a clear signal to enter the market.#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward?
I'm Ci Ge. The fact that SpaceX rebounded after lifting the ban is clear by looking at it clearly.
On August 6, the first batch of restricted shares was unlocked, with about 911.5 million shares entering the saleable window. The stock price not only did not fall but rebounded continuously. The latest data shows that bears remain in the market, with over 250 million shares sold short, accounting for about 16% of tradable shares. Options trading volume expanded simultaneously, with funds placing bets on both sides, and the game game clearly heating up.
Behind the rebound on the day of the lock-up, two forces are moving simultaneously. The selling pressure is not as fierce as imagined. The founder locked up their positions until 2027, and early investors at the $100 to $110 level were reluctant to cut losses, as the selling pressure released by the unlock-up was absorbed by the market. Buyers are actively entering the market, and some are willing to take in at this level. Bears have not retreated; the 16% short-selling ratio shows that bearish forces are still significant, but this also means that if the stock price continues to rise, short covering will become additional fuel for buying.
The financial report itself isn't bad, with revenue surging year-on-year and losses narrowing, but high AI capital expenditure is a double-edged sword. The Terafab project has already started, and Musk is building his own chip capacity, which is a strategy for long-term computing power demand. Neither the lock-up release nor the earnings report drove the stock price down, so short covering has become the biggest short-term narrative. With a 16% short-selling ratio, a 10% rise in stock price is enough to give the bears a hard time. But the unlocking is not a one-time event; there will be phased windows ahead, and how much the market can take on remains to be seen.
Regarding the crypto market, SpaceX's rebound and Palantir's better-than-expected earnings report both reinforce the same signal: the market is willing to pay for the narrative of high capital spending for future growth. SanDisk's sharp drop after the earnings report was due to insufficiently impressive guidance, and the market offered a discount. SpaceX's rebound on the unlocked day was due to the market's long-term potential in AI aerospace infrastructure. The short-term pressure on the storage sector is a guiding issue, not a problem of the disappearance of AI storage demand.
Next, focus on two things: whether short covering can continue to drive the stock price, and how the selling pressure during the upcoming unlocking window will be released. In this round of SpaceX's rise, short covering is an open signal, while options games are a hidden line. The direction is already clear; whether to follow it depends on yourself.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Take a closer look $BTC $ETH $SNDK "Say Things Without Saying Anything, Say Things Hard When Nothing Matters"
📌CPI Major Data Preview: May Rewrite Fed Rate Hike Expectations in September
Macro logic
On Wednesday evening, July CPI inflation data will be released, and this indicator will directly influence the Fed's September rate hike decision. Previously, weaker nonfarm payroll data had reduced the likelihood of a rate hike, and now CPI is the key variable determining the final direction.
At this stage, the market forecasts a 44% probability of a rate hike in September. Official Wash has made it clear that if inflation data recovers again, he will vote in favor of rate hikes. This CPI is far more important than previous data for the same period.
Market expectations reference values
The overall CPI year-on-year forecast is 3.4%, compared to the previous 3.5%;
Core CPI year-on-year forecast was 2.5%, core month-on-month forecast 0.2%.
The market trends correspond to the results of these three types of data
🔺 Scenario 1: Inflation data exceeded expectations
If the core CPI month-on-month increase breaks through 0.2% and year-on-year rebounds, the probability of a rate hike in September will surge, above 60%. Expectations of tighter liquidity will weigh on the cryptocurrency market, and BTC is highly likely to pull back to the 62,000-63,000 range.
⚪ Scenario 2: Inflation data and market expectations are in place
The data fully meets expectations, and the market will only experience slight short-term fluctuations, with no major changes in rate hike expectations. BTC will continue to fluctuate between 64,000 and 66,000, making it difficult to break out of a one-sided upward movement.
🟢 Scenario 3: Inflation data came in below expectations
Core CPI year-on-year fell below 2.5%, even approaching 2.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September will drop directly to below 30%. Rising expectations of liquidity easing are positive for the crypto market. BTC is expected to break through the 66,000 resistance level with increased volume, further challenging the 68,000 level.
Trading risk control strategies
Before the CPI is implemented, maintain a wait-and-see stance, avoid increasing positions or heavily betting on the direction.
If the data is positive, whether you can follow up and go long depends on the trading volume;
If the data is bearish and the price drops, patiently wait for the pullback to stabilize fully before buying on dips.
Entering a market a day or two late when the trend is established does not affect returns at all, but once the direction is wrong, the cost of heavy positions can be extremely high. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in earnings remain to be resolved 💰 $1B Into BTC, Yet One Market Signal Looks Strange
This is what I think. What You See about it? Tell me in comments.
Something interesting is happening in Bitcoin.
Spot BTC ETFs reportedly recorded around $1 billion in weekly net inflows, one of the strongest weekly performances in recent months.
At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for an extended period.
That creates an interesting divergence:
🏦 Institutional demand appears strong.
🇺🇸 US spot-market buying doesn't appear equally aggressive.
So where is the supply coming from?
Possible sources include:
• Long-term holders taking profits
• Miners managing treasury reserves
• Existing investors reallocating capital
• Other market participants reducing exposure
We shouldn't assume any one group is responsible without on-chain or market-flow confirmation.
But the bigger picture is worth watching.
If large buyers continue absorbing available supply while price remains relatively stable, the market could be going through a meaningful ownership transition.
The important question isn't simply:
“Who is bullish?”
It's:
“Who is accumulating, and who is distributing?”
That's the data I want to follow.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #CryptoTrading $BTC $ETH #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn South Korea's KOSPI opened high but fell back; the storage chip "duo" both opened high and then declined, with $SKHYNIX Hynix closing slightly down 0.14% and $SAMSUNG Samsung Electronics down 0.43%. The aftereffects of leveraged financing in South Korea still exist, posing certain obstacles to the recovery of storage chips. SK Hynix plans to launch a shareholder return plan totaling about 100 trillion KRW, including a share buyback of about 40 trillion KRW, with the buyback scale accounting for just over 2% of the total shares. Benefiting from this positive news, the stock rose during the session but fell back at the close. So how will US storage stocks perform tonight? * Micron's HBM logic bottomed out and steadily followed the rise, but next month's earnings DRAM pricing guidance is a sword hanging overhead, limiting gains with relatively high certainty. Expected to open up 1-2%. * SanDisk NAND spot prices are still rising (MLC 64Gb weekly up 5.58%), showing the greatest pre-market elasticity, but post-earnings "selling the fact" plus concerns about the cycle top have not fully released selling pressure. Highest risk of falling back after a high open, pre-market broke below 1200, opening fell about -2%, then sideways during the session. Most likely to oscillate again in the 1150-1230 range. Other news * Citi expects DRAM and NAND prices to peak in Q2 2027, then start to decline. * Jefferies warns "price peak may come earlier than expected," OPPO and vivo have rejected Samsung's Q3 quotes, and SanDisk's Q4 consumer revenue fell 32% quarter-on-quarter. #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 The most dangerous misconception about 20x contracts: it's not the high leverage, but deciding the position size first and thinking about stop loss last.
Contract trading should be calculated in reverse: not "how many U am I ready to open," but "how much U am I willing to lose at most on this trade."
Here's a simple example with $SOL. Suppose the account has 10,000U, planning to go long SOL near a key structure, with a technical stop loss distance of 4%. If you set the maximum loss per trade at 1% of the account, then the risk budget is 100U, corresponding to a spot-equivalent position size of about 2,500U.
At this point, whether you use 5x or 10x leverage mainly changes how much margin is occupied; the core factor determining account risk remains position size × stop loss distance. Many people reverse the order: first choose 20x → then decide how much margin to put in → finally pick a stop loss arbitrarily. This is why even if the market direction is ultimately correct, the account may exit prematurely.
What deserves more attention are macro events. A 2026 study found that changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have predictive information for $BTC realized volatility, while CPI expectation changes also have statistical significance for the volatility of altcoins like $ETH and SOL. Therefore, during CPI releases, Fed decisions, and similar time windows, I don't simply ask "go long or short tonight," but first ask: can this position withstand a sudden doubling of volatility?
My execution rules are simple: normal market single-trade risk is 1%-2%; proactively reduce position size before major data releases; stop loss must be placed where the trading logic fails, not at a random point of "I can only accept this much loss"; after 2-3 consecutive stop losses, reduce the risk budget for the next trade instead of increasing leverage to rush to recover.
Risk reminder: **The #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 听到 Looking at the liquidity monitoring tables for six Solana spot ETFs listed nationwide, I saw the number "0" written in the net subscription column for five consecutive trading days. I rubbed my sore eyes and couldn't help but complain in the trader group: the promised major players taking over and kicking off the altcoin season celebration turned into a silent stagnation at the secondary subscription stage. Just a few days ago, on August 7, the largest Solana ETF in the U.S.—Bitwise's BSOL Trust Fund—had just released its Q2 financial report. The data tells a harsh story: although the fund successfully raised $267 million in net subscription funds in the first half of the year, its book operations recorded extremely severe losses due to the sharp depreciation of the underlying asset public chain token prices.
Is this traditional capital's disdain for counterfeit assets, or is it just normal drainage under a regulatory dam? This afternoon, I scheduled a video chat with an investment advisory director who specializes in digital asset trust allocation for overseas family offices. His answer revealed the honest words I'd been holding back for a long time.
I asked him, since Solana's spot ETF has successfully been listed compliantly on the US stock market, and even giants like BlackRock have begun applying to settle tokenized funds on their chains, why has buying interest in secondary ETFs suddenly fallen into this dead, "stagnant flow"?
He shrugs and reluctantly tells me that many crypto bulls habitually pin the Ethereum ETF script onto Solana. But you must understand, Wall Street buyers are not monolithic. For long-term trust funds and pension accounts with extremely stringent compliance requirements, Solana's current regulatory legal flaws cannot be ignored. Regulators still define Solana as suspected unregistered securities. This lingering regulatory shadow deters most compliant buyers who must bear legal responsibility for the safety of underlying assets. Without the irrigation of these trillion-yuan reservoirs, relying solely on a few retail investors-led ETFs cannot support the consumption of high valuations.
I asked again, the more than $200 million subscribed by Bitwise BSOL, along with huge book losses, does that mean institutions are trapped as soon as they enter?
He sighed and said that was indeed the case. Big money was drawn into the market at the end of the bull market, attracted by grand narratives, thinking they were buying the future of high-performance chains, only to suddenly run into the pincer movement of high token inflation and secondary liquidity shortages. This painful feeling of bleeding directly on paper quickly triggers extremely severe negative feedback, scaring off all traditional allocation funds who have been waiting and waiting.
This five-day streak of zero inflow is essentially institutions using their feet to express their stance.
Looking at those lines of unchanged zeros, I felt a deep sense of relief. In the narrative-driven crypto world, we often overestimate the universal magic of the phrase "compliant listing," while overlooking the real gap caused by sovereign systems, regulatory positioning, and the underlying asset's ability to generate revenue. When the wind blows and the bubble recedes, all that remains is the cold profit and loss statement on the books and an unmistakable liquidity desert.
Institutions' money isn't meant to selflessly take over your digital vision; what they want is definite compliance channels and long-term security returns.
What do you think about the awkward situation of Solana ETFs having zero inflows for five consecutive days? Faced with hundreds of millions of dollars in paper losses and stubborn securities characterization, do you think funds like BSOL will make a comeback with the upcoming rate-cutting cycle, or are they destined to become the final stop of this institutional narrative of cryptocurrencies? Feel free to share your observations in the comments section.闪迪 $SNDK 周末（8.8–8.10）消息总结
1、最大矛盾：财报炸裂，但指引偏弱（本周跌势根源）
- Q4 财报历史顶级超预期
营收89.7亿（同比+372%）、每股收益超预期14%、数据中心业务环比+233%
- 致命利空：2027财年Q1指引偏保守（103–108亿），没达到华尔街极致乐观预期
- 市场逻辑：利好兑现+高预期落空 → 连续三天资金出逃杀估值
2、周末最大【新增利好】（周一最关键催化）
8.8 晚间重磅技术利好（行业级突破）
闪迪 + 海力士 联合发布全新高带宽AI闪存标准
- 专为AI服务器、高速算力存储定制
- 进一步巩固企业级AI SSD龙头地位
- 机构解读：长期托底订单、缓解周期焦虑
3、基本面硬逻辑不变（支撑不会深跌）
1. 手握420亿美金长期数据中心待履约订单
2. 和铠侠合约延长至2034年，产能锁死、供给无忧
3. 140亿美金大额回购计划持续执行
4. 消费级、企业级闪存价格未来12–18个月无下跌预期
4、周末机构观点分化（当前市场情绪）
- 多头（伯恩斯坦）：维持超级看多，目标价3000美元
- 空头（花旗、富国）：下调短期预期，认为短期涨幅透支、需要时间消化估值
5、整体结论
1. 基本面完全没问题，依旧AI存储最强标的之一
2. 本周下跌不是崩、是高预期杀估值+获利盘兑现
3. 周末出新行业技术利好，有短线修复反弹动力
4. 大趋势：震荡修复，不再单边大跌，也暂时没有连续大涨
6、周一
- 不会继续深跌
- 大概率技术性反弹修复
- 压力位：1280–1350
- 支撑位：1180–1200 $KAITO 最近下跌了很多很多。 我在它处于$1.2 左右的时候就不断的发文章说位置太高，说不建议在$1.2 的时候进去做多了。 因为我认为，$KAITO 那个时候的价格确实比较高。 那此时此刻呢？ 现在$KAITO 已经跌到了$0.66 了，能去做多吗？ 我认为，现在并不是抄底$KAITO 的好时机。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，它的合约多空比确确实实是在不断上升的，目前也确确实实回到了七月初的位置。 持仓量的话，其实是有所上升的，这说明确确实实也有不少人抄底。 链上数据显示，现在也是有很多人在抄底它的。 我们再看一下它的走势。 可以发现，即便是下跌到了$0.66 ，但是距离它二月的低点依然有超过150％ 的涨幅。 说明现在还是有很多获利盘的，这些获利盘即便是在这个位置，依然有着不少的收益。 再加上我确确实实没有从它的走势中看到有一些趋缓的迹象，所以我是不看好现在去抄底的。 —————————————————— 对于这种情况的币，我个人更推荐右侧交易。 我之前就喜欢抄底这种币，然后就经常被套牢了。 赶上周期了，可能会解套；但是如果赶不上#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Brothers, there's a detail worth pondering in Circle's recent financial report:
USDC has started to "hit the brakes."
At quarter-end, circulating volume fell to $73.3 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of nearly 4.8%. Although average circulating volume increased year-on-year
25%, but this month-on-month data still indicates that USDC's recent growth has clearly slowed.
Even more interestingly, Circle has already laid out its next card—Arc.
On September 16, Arc planned to launch on the public mainnet, with traditional financial giants such as BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, and Mastercard joining the founding validator cast.
So I think Circle probably wanted to do more than just USDC for a long time.
USDC is responsible for "money," while Arc handles "roads."
Stablecoin settlement, RWA, tokenized assets, and connecting traditional financial institutions—what Circle truly wants to build is an on-chain financial infrastructure.
If Arc truly succeeds, USDC will no longer be just a tool for trading and transfers, but could become the "underlying fuel" for institutional fund flow.
Of course, we can't rush to hype it up just yet.
USDC circulation has already declined quarter-on-quarter, and Arc has not yet been validated by the market.
So the real question to watch next is whether Arc can truly bring traditional financial funds on-chain after September 16.
If it could, the 4.8% drop might have been just a brief episode.
If not, Circle's game might not be so easy to play.Breathing at its lowest and heart rate dropping to thirty-four beats per minute, the target on the secret scale suddenly showed an extremely strange shake—not from the ground where it was knocked down, but by someone playing a highly deceptive tactical feint behind the smoke in the grass.
Sandisk's just-released last quarter report was quite accurate, with both revenue and adjusted earnings per share hitting the target of expectations. But on the edge of the 4x scope, the median revenue guidance for next quarter deviated from the market consensus trajectory. In an instant, a fierce wind blew across the battlefield, with ricochets and noise flying everywhere. Those newcomers who had never seen blood would have already panicked and fired rapidly, but for veterans who had been lurking in the mud for seventy-two hours, this violent shock was just a tentative feint behind cover.
The true hiding place and launch time of the prey were locked in: Investor Day on August 13. It was far from a mild social briefing; it was a precise firing window forcing the target to leave cover, exposing their chest completely to the thermal imaging field of view.
At this moment, observers lurking in the grass are frantically calculating wind speed, air pressure, and humidity: is that guidance for retraction bunkers a tactical disguise by the main console to avoid risk, or is it a true exhaustion of terminal demand? The NAND flash supply cycle curve, combined with their AI storage frontline equipment upgrade roadmap, is the core ballistic parameter that determines whether bullets can penetrate heavy armor after firing from the muzzle. If the storage tactical layout under the AI computing wave can support long-term supply, then the current sharp pullback is at best just barrel cooling after intense continuous fire.
As for that $14 billion share buyback—in my tactical manual, it's tantamount to stuffing neatly packed heavy reserve ammunition into the underground bunkers of the main position. The reorganization of the capital allocation structure will directly change the thickness of the target's armor and force the valuation calculators sitting in the rear office to reset the accuracy calibration parameters.
By simultaneously observing the $XSKHY of US stock token targets through a night vision scope, the pulse trajectories of derivative fluctuations appear cold and eerily synchronized with the main battlefield. The cross-border linkage between the secondary battlefield and the main battlefield is essentially the whistling sound of wind blowing through barbed wire. Before the true absolute kill zone forms, the pre-pull force of the finger must remain at a critical point—not a gram more, not a gram less.
Before the whistle blew on August 13, the ballistic correction parameters were undetermined, and the crosshair would never stray from the prey's throat by even a millimeter.
#SandiskInvestorDay $65,000 worth of BTC—will you chase it?
Let's look at the surface first: good news keeps coming, but prices are dragging on.
Since rebounding from the early August low of about 62k, BTC has climbed above the $65,000 mark, with a weekly gain of nearly 3-4%. But the 24-hour volatility was only 0.21%, and it hovered around the $600 range of 64,800-65,400 all day. The price has risen, but the momentum is running out.
First: Nonfarm payrolls exploded, but BTC didn't.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. Employment data has dropped sharply, signaling a cooling labor market.
Logically, a job crash = rising rate cut expectations = risk assets surge. But what about BTC? It surged to 65,000, then ...... That's it.
Because nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; Wednesday's CPI is the main course.
Before Wednesday, all gains were "expected," not "confirmed."
The second thing: ETFs are buying aggressively, but you may be ignoring another signal.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock IBIT alone attracted $694 million, accounting for 81% of total inflows. It has seen net inflows for five consecutive days without a single outflow.
Sounds impressive? But look at the candlestick chart—$850 million was poured in, and the price only pushed from 62k to 65k. Half a year ago, $850 million could have pushed BTC from 60k to 72k.
This shows that the selling pressure is also huge. Some people buy ETFs, while others are dumping spot stocks.
Third thing: The CLARITY Act has been postponed, and regulatory boots haven't been put in place yet
The U.S. Senate has postponed voting on the CLARITY Act to September, increasing uncertainty over its short-term passage. August 7 is the last window before recess, but the Senate ultimately failed to vote. Polymarket data shows the probability of passage within the year has dropped to about 16%.
The delay in positive news does not mean the negative news has disappeared—before September, the crypto regulatory framework was still hanging in the air
Key location
Resistance above: 65,500-65,800→ 67,000-68,000→ 70,000
Support below: 64,800→ 63,800→ 62,000-62,500 Now looking at $ETH,
it’s even more obvious recently.
Around 1900 feels welded in place.
Every time it falls here,
there’s capital buying back.
But resistance at 1940-1950 is also clear.
Every attempt to break through is suppressed.
This shows chasing funds aren’t as strong as imagined.
If $ETH can’t firmly hold above 1950 again,
we still need to watch for a retest of 1870 or even 1850.
The biggest problem now
is not lack of downside space,
but the market still lacks a trigger.
——
Also, the US stock market is interesting.
$MU has been quite strong recently.
The storage sector is driven by AI demand.
The market has high expectations for future earnings,
so funds are willing to pay valuations.
But the problem with these stocks is clear.
The higher the expectations,
once future data disappoints,
the pullback will be fast.
Right now it’s more emotion-driven,
not purely based on earnings numbers.
——
$SNDK is the same.
Its previous earnings data wasn’t bad.
Revenue growth and profit performance were impressive.
But the market doesn’t trade the past,
it trades future expectations.
When funds think growth might slow,
even with good earnings,
there can be profit-taking.
This is common recently in tech stocks.
When rising, the story matters;
when falling, valuation matters.
——
So the whole market is quite conflicted now.
Crypto has capital support,
US tech stocks have AI expectations backing them.
This makes bears want to push down,
but there isn’t enough panic selling.
The more stable the market seems,
the more we need to watch for sudden liquidity releases.
——
I’m not trying to bet on a huge crash with this trade.
Honestly,
just give me a drop near 63000,
I’ll cut losses and leave.
This time I’m really convinced.
I wanted to make some quick money,
but almost got hung out to dry by the market 😭
$BTC
How much longer can you hold 65000?
It’s time to give the bears some chance, right?
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？
#财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？
$ETH Apple is testing Changxin DRAM, preparing to supply iPhones and Macs, and the storage supply chain structure is beginning to loosen.
The storage sector saw a bearish trend: despite explosive earnings growth, stock prices fell, and even the billion-yuan buyback couldn't prevent the pullback.
The short-term rebound in Korean stocks is merely a recovery in sentiment caused by the easing of leveraged selling pressure, not a fundamental reversal.
With Korean companies offering large-scale buybacks and dividends, major companies aggressively expanding production, the scarcity premium brought by AI is being diluted, and the price hike trend is likely to end. After the rebound, clear signals are still needed.
$SAMSUNG $SNDK #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
🔥 US AI stocks soar, crypto remains unmoved? I choose to watch the show, not to act
I read the earnings reports of US tech stocks, but that's all there is to it—they're my reference for judging market sentiment, not for opening positions.
A few months ago, I was still the one watching Nvidia's earnings reports, AMD's data center revenue, and Microsoft Azure's growth rate to do BTC. When US stocks rose, I thought crypto should follow suit, but when US AI surged, BTC actually stagnated or even declined. Later, I realized one thing: US stocks did rise, but it was those leading tech stocks that rose, not a full bull market. BTC, an asset with a correlation above 0.8 to Nasdaq, follows when it rises and follows when it falls—but the degree of alignment varies.
There are mainly two paths of conduction:
The first is risk appetite. With earnings exceeding expectations and positive market sentiment, highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH will benefit. But if the overall valuation of the AI sector drops, cryptocurrencies will also come under pressure, especially coins related to AI, computing power, and DePIN, which will be more directly affected.
The second is liquidity diversion. When the AI profit-making effect in US stocks is strong, incremental funds are drawn away. You see US stocks rising, but crypto funds are actually flowing out. Institutional funds are limited—one side makes profits, the other side has to decrease.
How should it be done?
A core principle: set the direction from the macro perspective, and only make minor adjustments to the financial report.
Total positions are determined by US Treasury yields and inflation expectations. CPI data and Federal Reserve statements determine how much position I should take. The financial report is used for two things: first, adjusting the weighting of AI/computing power-themed coins; second, making slight adjustments to local positions.
If after the US earnings report, the AI sector surges but BTC stays still, I won't chase the long position—on the contrary, I'll be cautious, indicating that the current rally may be localized and incremental funds haven't flowed over. If the AI sector crashes after the earnings report and BTC follows the drop, I might follow the trend a bit, but not at the most panic-stricken point.
Several clear signals from actual combat:
· Earnings report beats expectations, Nasdaq futures jump, BTC still hasn't caught up within an hour after the data release: this indicates funds haven't flowed into crypto, so don't actively increase your positions.
· Earnings reports falling short of expectations, Nasdaq futures plunging, BTC falling but with smaller declines than the Nasdaq: this suggests the crypto market may have already released risks early, which is why it's worth considering buying in batches.
· If the AI sector has been rising for a week or two and then another earnings report beats expectations, caution is needed—the probability of all positive news being exhausted is higher than continuing to surge.
Total positions are set by macro levels, with partial allocations based on AI market conditions.
Will the rise and fall of US tech stocks affect your crypto position? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
I watch US tech stocks, but I won't directly adjust my crypto position just because of its price movements
Many people treat the Nasdaq as a remote control for BTC: if the Nasdaq is red, I'll cut my position; if it's green, I'll add to it. This logic will work in 2024, but by 2026 it's already half ineffective.
Here are the data:
• In April 2026, the 40-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq is at 0.96, almost consolidating
• But by early June, the coefficient of the same caliber fell to 0, and the S&P 30-day correlation coefficient also fell from 0.8 to around 0.5
• On August 4, the S&P rose 1.5%, while BTC instead plunged to 62,400; on the day the S&P hit a new high, BTC only recovered to around 64,000, showing a clear slowdown in the rally
In other words, the current relationship is "more aggressive on declines and weaker on gains"—tech stocks are driven by AI capital expenditure, with funds prioritized for Intel, AMD, and cloud companies, while BTC is not on the beneficiaries.
My practical framework is a three-layer view, not a single layer for bullish or downward trends:
1. Macroeconomic (real signal): US stocks fell because of rate hike expectations, non-farm payrolls, and tightening liquidity → US Treasury yields rising, a strong dollar→ BTC will inevitably be suppressed, so positions are reduced at this point. US stocks fall only because a tech stock's earnings report was a bombshell, AI narrative internal rotation→ unrelated to BTC, so it didn't move.
2. Sentiment layer (delayed signal): If the Nasdaq plunges 3%+ and the VIX jumps, crypto leveraged markets will be liquidated. At this time, it's not about adjusting "investment positions" but about "contract/altcoin exposure," cutting high beta positions to keep BTC/ETH bottoms.
3. Standalone layer (BTC itself): ETF flows, CME basis, on-chain long-term holding addresses, stablecoin market cap—these are BTC's own licenses. If US stocks are flat and ETFs have continuous net inflows, I will increase; If US stocks rise and ETFs have net outflows for 13 consecutive days (this happened in June), I will still decrease.
Simply put: the US stock market is a crypto "environmental pressure," not an "action button." Adjusting positions only by looking at the Nasdaq's red and green is like deciding your own salivity based on your neighbor's mood.
My own discipline:
• Bottom positions (BTC + ETH spot) only look at cycles and ETF flows, not swayed by single-day Nasdaq fluctuations
• Swing positions only reference Nasdaq sentiment, and are only used for "deleveraging/copying," not for "reverse chasing long"
• Nasdaq single-day ± below 2%, default noise, not watched
What about you? Will you strictly link to the Nasdaq for rebalancing, or just look at BTC's own structure? This Wednesday's CPI release is the crucial vote to decide whether to raise interest rates in September and also a key vote determining the direction of the crypto market.
Because last week's unexpected weakness in non-farm payrolls has already provided arguments for the dovish side, now the last puzzle piece is inflation. If core CPI meets or falls below expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September will be cut in half; as long as it rebounds beyond expectations, combined with the hawkish base of three dissenting votes at the July meeting, a rate hike is basically a done deal.
In the crypto market, if CPI is a bit lower, the Federal Reserve is more likely to hold steady, giving $BTC room to rebound; if CPI is higher, rate hike concerns return, and any rebound is likely to stall at key levels.
Because Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $65,000. On the upside, it first needs to break through $66,300, then the significant resistance at the $70,000 mark; on the downside, there is buying support near $64,400, making a deeper drop unlikely.
After the CPI data is released, the key focus is whether trading volume can help it hold above $65,000.
If it holds steady, people will stop worrying about macro news, capital will flow back into crypto, and the market is likely to move upward;
But if it spikes up and then falls back, I think short-term sideways movement will continue.
So the entire market is hanging at a critical point, and no one dares to bet on a one-sided move in advance.
Looking at the data, the latest CME FedWatch shows a 55.6% chance of holding rates steady in September and a 44.4% chance of a 25bp hike—before last week's non-farm payroll release, the hike probability was still above 55%. A weak jobs report directly pulled expectations back, and now it’s a balanced game; one CPI report can completely break the equilibrium.
Regarding the Fed’s #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn