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本周三（8月12日）公布的是7月CPI，市场共识大致为：整体CPI月增约0.1%、年增约3.4%；核心CPI月增约0.2%、年增约2.5%左右（较6月整体3.5%、核心约2.6%进一步回落）。这是近期关键数据后，影响9月FOMC（9月15-16日）定价的核心变量。
当前9月加息定价情况近期就业数据（7月非农大幅不及预期，岗位减少）已显著压低加息概率。CME FedWatch等工具显示，9月加息（25bp）概率大致在35%-45%区间，持稳概率升至约55%-65%（就业报告前曾一度接近50-60%甚至更高）。预测市场（如Kalshi、Polymarket）也偏向持稳为主。
当前利率目标区间约在3.50%-3.75%。市场仍担心通胀粘性（尤其服务、核心商品可能反弹）和此前地缘/能源扰动，但就业降温给了Fed更多“观望”空间。CPI结果会如何改写9月定价？符合或略低于预期（整体年增≤3.4%、核心月增≤0.2%）：9月加息概率大概率进一步下修（可能跌至30%甚至更低），持稳成为更明确基线。后续仍看8月数据，但短期“加息紧迫感”会减弱。Fed内部有鹰派声音，但单月温和数据+就业软化，足以支撑观望。
明显低于预期（核心月增接近0.1%或更低）：定价可能大幅转向“年内可能不加息甚至讨论降息路径”，9月加息几乎退出主流讨论。
高于预期（核心月增0.3%+或年增明显回升）：即使就业偏软，加息概率可能快速反弹至50%以上甚至更高，重新点燃9月/10月加息讨论。市场对核心通胀容忍度较低。
整体看，若按共识出炉，定价会被微调但不会“大幅改写”（就业已先行降温）；真正大幅改写需要显著超预期的偏离。后续PPI、零售销售和8月数据仍重要。对加密货币和股市的影响CPI是典型风险资产驱动因素，主要通过利率预期→流动性/贴现率→风险偏好传导：股市（尤其纳指、成长股、科技）：温和/低于预期通常利好——收益率下行、估值支撑增强，风险偏好回升，可能延续近期反弹。高于预期则短期承压，尤其高估值板块波动加大。历史模式显示，通胀降温常带来股债双牛式反应。
加密货币（BTC等）：对流动性更敏感，反应往往更剧烈。温和数据→加息预期降温→美元/实际利率压力减轻→利好风险资产，BTC等常快速反弹；热数据则容易引发抛售。近期宏观（就业软化+通胀预期）已部分定价宽松方向，若CPI配合，加密可能跟涨；若反弹，波动会放大。加密与美股相关性仍较高，但流动性驱动更强。
总结：共识情景下，9月加息定价大概率进一步偏向持稳（小幅改写），利好股市与加密的风险偏好；热数据则可能逆转近期宽松定价，带来短期压力。最终仍取决于实际数字与细节（核心服务、商品、住房等）。这不是投资建议，市场波动快，注意风险管理。#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $1 billion flowed into BTC, but the market showed an unexpected signal. 👀
Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $1 billion, marking the strongest weekly performance since April.
Institutional funds are continuously buying.
However, at the same time, the Coinbase premium index has been negative for 77 consecutive days, setting a historical record.
These two data points together are very contradictory:
On one side, Wall Street keeps absorbing BTC chips;
On the other side, the US domestic market shows no obvious chasing enthusiasm.
So the question arises:
Who exactly is selling their BTC?
Is it early whales cashing out?
Is it miners releasing inventory?
Or is the market undergoing a massive chip transfer?
The current BTC market is undergoing an important change:
Buyers are becoming more institutionalized, sellers more fragmented.
The real battle behind the price is not just a long-short game, but about whose hands the chips are transferring from and to.
When the market lacks frenzy and FOMO, yet funds continue to absorb selling pressure, this is often the phase most worth watching. #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $BTC Ansem's latest judgment is straightforward: trading will become the next generation of the most popular PvP games, and tokenization will become as widespread as social posting.
His logic is divided into three layers:
1) In the previous round, Unibot linked trading terminals and tokens, proving the explosive power of long-tail asset trading;
2) This round focuses on mobile social trading platforms. Whoever can turn 'transaction + social' into a product will gain new traffic;
3) Stocks and crypto 24/7 perpetual will continue to attract retail investors, Hyperliquid's HIP-3 equity product has already validated the trend, and platforms like Lighter may also benefit.
More importantly, Ansem focuses on the "creator and attention economy": many projects are willing to pay big fan creators for distribution, but ordinary meme models can't meet this demand. Whoever can productize creator distribution and truly benefit token holders will seize the next narrative.
Short-term market outlook: BTC current price 65,028, pivot point PP 65,016.83, R1 65,333.67 above, S1 64,550.97 below; ETH current price 1,919.7, PP 1,917.88, R1 1,929.36, S1 1,898.1. The overall market is relatively stable, funding rates remain low, making it better to focus on structural breakouts rather than chasing sentiment.
Opinion: Social transactions + creator distribution will be a stronger narrative thread this round than a simple meme. First, see who makes the product, then see if traffic can accumulate into holdings.
Pivot BTC PP 65016.83 / R1 65333.67 / S1 64550.97 | ETH PP 1917.88 / R1 1929.36 / S1 1898.1
$BTC #BTC $ETH #ETH $ ##本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
最近市场的交易逻辑正在发生变化。
此前7月非农就业数据意外走弱，美国就业新增低于预期，同时前几个月数据被下修，市场迅速降低了9月加息预期。
但现在，所有人的目光又回到了一个关键数据：
7月CPI
因为就业决定美联储有没有压力，而通胀决定美联储有没有空间。
如果CPI继续下降，尤其是核心通胀保持回落，那么市场可能进一步押注政策转向，美元走弱，$BTC 和美股科技股$XNVDA 可能迎来风险偏好修复。
但如果核心服务通胀依然顽固，市场可能重新交易“高利率维持更久”，风险资产也会再次承压。
我认为这次CPI最大的看点，不是数字本身，而是它会不会改变市场对9月政策的预期。
近期市场已经经历了几次反复：
就业数据弱 → 降息预期升温 → 风险资产上涨；
官员鹰派讲话 → 市场重新谨慎。
所以在这种环境下，我不会提前重仓押数据。宏观数据公布前，最大的风险不是方向错，而是波动超预期。
我更关注三个信号：
第一，CPI公布后美元走势；
第二，美债收益率是否继续回落；
第三，BTC和美股是否出现成交量配合的上涨。
如果通胀继续降温，美联储政策空间打开，那么AI、科技股和加密资产可能迎来新的机会。
但如果CPI重新给市场泼冷水，短期波动可能还会继续。现在市场交易的已经不是一次加息，而是在寻找美联储下一阶段的政策方向The core market thinking brought about by ETF capital inflows
🦅 Core question: With ETF funds flowing in again, the market is once again focused on key issues. Is this crypto market rebound and warming just a short-term emotional pulse or the beginning of long-term institutional capital positioning?
🐂 Capital structure reform: Since the approval of BTC spot ETFs, short-term market fluctuations have only surfaced; the real transformation lies in the underlying structure of market funds.
Previously, market movements were mainly driven by retail funds and native crypto funds, but now traditional off-exchange capital has become the core force influencing the market. BTC, relying on the safe-haven nature of digital gold, has always been the top choice for institutional asset allocation; ETH focuses on ecosystem building and on-chain financial infrastructure, with completely diverging positioning.
🐢 Key Understanding: However, ETF inflows do not mean the coin's price will immediately rise.
For a trend market of sufficient scale, two conditions are indispensable: continuous influx of incremental funds and synchronized improvement in the macro environment.
🦁 Market Outlook: If the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle and market liquidity is fully liberalized, BTC and ETH will usher in an excellent window of large capital inflows.
What the market is hoping for now has never been scattered small buying, but the arrival of a new full capital cycle. #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing of September rate hikes be rewritten? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Key pre-market information summary for tonight's U.S. stock market opening.
Before tonight's pre-market session, the three major futures showed divergent movements: Dow futures edged down, Nasdaq 100 slightly rose, S&P 500 traded sideways, and funds throughout the session were mostly cautious, with no one willing to bet on direction first. Last Friday, thanks to nonfarm payrolls falling far short of expectations, the three major indices posted their strongest weekly performance in nearly four months. Both the Dow and S&P hit new all-time closing highs, with the Nasdaq rising over 5% for the week. However, all funds were holding back this week, waiting for Wednesday night's July CPI release. The inflation data will directly determine the pace of Fed rate cuts in September. Before that, big money will not enter the market on a large scale to go long or dump shares.
Two major macro news pieces over the weekend directly constrained overall market volatility. Berkshire Hathaway ended 14 consecutive quarters of net selling in Q2, making its first major increase in equity assets, with cash reserves dropping from $397.4 billion to $365.51 billion, making large purchases of Google and initiating share buybacks. Long-term funds have recognized the current cost-effectiveness of U.S. equity assets, but such funds are positioned annually and will not participate in short-term intraday speculation. Additionally, negotiations on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, with Iran setting multiple preconditions, making short-term navigation unlikely. International crude oil rebounded slightly, indirectly suppressing interest rate cut trades.
Breaking down the latest developments in today's popular AI stocks:
1. NVIDIA NVDA closed last Friday at $223.96, up 2.27% in a single day, with a slight gain of 0.5% in pre-market trading. Holding global AI computing power pricing power, after this week's close, CoreWeave, a company invested in by Nvidia, will release its earnings report. Combined with the successive results of AMD Computer, Lumentum, and Coherent, the entire AI computing power and optical module industry chain will face performance stress tests. If capital expenditure and order guidance fall short of expectations, valuation corrections are likely to occur.
2. Palantir PLTR became a legend last week, surging 40% in a single week, rising another 10.32% last Friday to close at $172.01. The core driving force was Q2 revenue soaring 93% year-on-year, U.S. commercial revenue soaring 149%, management raising full-year guidance, AI data analytics scenarios continuously expanding, and deep ties to the U.S. defense "Golden Dome" project. Pre-market volatility was slight, short-term gains were overdrawn, and capital divergence began to widen.
3. SpaceX, after a sharp drop after the lock-up, recovered and rose 1% pre-market gain. Q2 revenue grew 92% year-on-year, losses continued to narrow, Starlink became a stable cash flow source, and the commercialization of AI space computing power accelerated. Morgan Stanley stated that its stock price falling to $100 means the AI business valuation has hit zero. The current price is a misselling, but the company's capital expenditures remain high, and medium- to long-term pressure factors persist.
4. Among the seven major U.S. tech giants, Microsoft edged up 0.1% in pre-market trading, Meta turned slightly negative, and Amazon and Google rose 0.4% in pre-market trading. Warren Buffett made a major increase in Google, valuing the long-term growth potential of Google's AI search and cloud businesses; Meta is fully betting on AI agents, but recent capital expenditure growth has slowed, and institutional divisions are gradually emerging.
The storage chip sector showed the most obvious divergence. Yesterday, SK Hynix revealed an epic $71 billion shareholder return plan, including $28.4 billion in share buybacks and cancellations, rising 2% in pre-market trading and directly boosting sentiment in the storage sector. In contrast, SanDisk's earnings data was explosive, with revenue soaring 372% year-on-year and gross margin of 84.6%, and also launching a $14 billion buyback. This was because next quarter's revenue guidance fell short of market expectations. After the earnings were released, the stock plunged for two consecutive days, now at $1,212.21. In the short term, this is a misjudgment in sentiment, and relying on the rigid demand for AI data center storage, there is a technical recovery opportunity.
Overall summary: Tonight, US stocks mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, with funds uninterested in betting on short-term rallies, and all main funds lying low awaiting Wednesday's CPI. AI computing power and data analysis stocks saw relatively high short-term gains; beware of positive earnings realization; The storage sector benefited from Hynix's buyback, with stronger recovery expectations. Ordinary traders should watch more and avoid moving less, so there is no need to heavily invest in positions early to bet on directions. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 实现利润/亏损（链上）在几天前（8月初）捕捉到一次尖锐、集中度很高的、类似恐慌性“集中清仓”式的飙升。
从历史来看，一次剧烈的已实现亏损事件往往比缓慢的逐步下跌更能更快地清洗掉被迫卖出者。
这并不能确认方向——只是表明最近已经发生了一波集中恐慌抛售浪潮。
这种“冲刷”之后的阶段，往往是区间震荡执行（如网格策略）优于方向性押注的时机。ETH’s upside potential may be greater, but the premise is that market risk appetite cooperates.
Macro interest rate expectations are the biggest uncertainty. Oil prices and US-Iran negotiations will directly affect rate cut expectations, which in turn impact the overall valuation of the crypto market.
If macro conditions improve and risk assets rise overall, ETH’s elasticity will be greater. If macro pressure continues, BTC’s resilience will be stronger.
Facing this wave of ETF fund inflows, should you adjust your allocation?
You can increase your allocation to mainstream assets, but don’t heavily chase highs at the current level. A better approach is to enter in batches and gradually add positions on price pullbacks.
Regarding the BTC and ETH ratio, if you seek certainty, BTC should be the majority; if you’re willing to accept more volatility for higher elasticity, increase ETH’s proportion.
ETF fund inflows are a positive signal, but the market won’t rally overnight. Stay patient, build positions gradually, and wait for capital and macro factors to resonate.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ 865 million USD, with BlackRock alone contributing 694 million.
This is the highest weekly net inflow for a US spot Bitcoin ETF in nearly 15 weeks.
The money is back, but the market hasn't moved yet.
Institutions are buying, retail investors are waiting. Whether BTC and ETH can catch this wave of funds depends on the macroeconomic and risk appetite trends in the coming weeks.
BlackRock's IBIT bought 694 million worth of BTC this week. The entire ETF market saw a net inflow of 865 million, a new high in nearly 15 weeks.
Ethereum ETFs have also seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling about 244 million.
Institutional funds are indeed flowing back into mainstream assets, and the signal is clear.
But whether BTC and ETH can catch this wave of funds and start a rally depends on three things: macro interest rate expectations, market risk appetite, and whether spot trading volume can keep up.
ETF fund inflows indicate institutions are buying. But institutions are buying for long-term allocation, not short-term price pumping. At the 65,000 level, institutions won’t all-in push the price to 70,000; instead, they enter in batches within a certain range.
Buying pressure is ongoing but not necessarily concentrated in a burst.
BTC’s positioning is clearer; it is the largest liquidity carrier in the crypto market, and the first stop for institutions allocating crypto assets is BTC. The ETF inflow data also shows this: out of 865 million, 694 million comes from BTC, accounting for over 80%.
BTC’s advantage is strong certainty; its downside is that volatility is converging, so its short-term explosive power is less than ETH’s.
ETH has greater elasticity. Vitalik just finalized the underlying upgrade roadmap for the next three to four years, restarting the technical narrative. ETH’s positioning as a key asset downstream of AI is being accepted by the market. Tom Lee’s data shows ETH outperformed DRAM by 55% in the past month.
$BTC SpaceX's unlock didn't crash the market, but kept rising for two consecutive days—this is more interesting than the unlock itself. This shows that among the first batch of holders unlocked, not many were in a hurry to leave—the market can catch up. Money isn't bought by stories; it's betting real money on commercialization. I'll treat the post-unlock market as a key measure. As long as trading volume doesn't shrink significantly and the price doesn't break the unlock day's low, this wave isn't an emotional pulse—it's funds slowly pricing in expectations for the next stage. Conversely, if there is a sudden surge in volume or shrinkage and a drop in the gains in the coming days, be careful of delayed release of unlocked assets. #EarningsObserver: Bear Buying Becomes the Focus—What Are SpaceX's Views on the Future? [The Biggest Lies in the Crypto World for 2025] — Who made BTC the most outrageous? Who is the biggest "scammer" in the crypto world?
Su Hu
Attention
Observing the tides of the market, the ebb and flow are nothing but bull-bear cycles;
On the way of trading, greed, anger, and obsession are nothing but the floating and sinking of the sea of desire.
Think independently, respect logic, embrace uncertainty!
📊 [Market Research | The Biggest Lies in the Crypto World for 2025] —
Who made $BTC the most outrageous? Who is the biggest "scammer" in the crypto world?
In 2025, the crypto world will have no shortage of BTC target prices of "200,000, 250,000, 500,000." I've compiled a photo of the "scammers" who made the most outrageous claims about BTC in 2025 into one photo:
Saylor is calling for 150,000+, Arthur Hayes is asking for 200,000–250,000 yuan, PlanB's S2F model continues to target even higher prices, and institutions like Bitwise, VanEck, and Bernstein have also set targets of 180,000–200,000 yuan or even higher.
And what happened? All the predicted figures and institutions were proven wrong!
BTC did hit a new high, but its highest price was only about $126,000.
Predictions aren't infallible, but they can't be too exaggerated or unrealistic!
What is truly worth reviewing is: why do so many people collectively overestimate in the same direction?
Macro liquidity, institutional buying, and halving narratives are all real, but the market never moves according to your target price just because the logic is "correct."
The most dangerous thing in trading is not looking in the wrong direction, but mistakenly thinking the correct direction for the right price as well.
This is what truly deserves discussion about this picture.
▍BTC Token Concentration Has Risen to 14.8%! Half a foot has stepped into the "high-risk zone."
Note! The risk here does not refer to rise or fall, but to volatility.
Chip concentration can't predict direction, but based on historical data, I've noticed there seems to be a pattern:
When the curve starts to turn, as BTC's price had previously risen, the probability of continuing to move upward is greater; Conversely, the probability of continuing downward movement is higher (as shown in the figure):
However, at this moment, the curve is still continuously rising. Therefore, we cannot yet predict which direction will lead with greater probability.
But what is certain is that risks are accumulating and volatility is brewing......
▍Ethereum Short-Term Scenario:
$ETH After breaking below the short-term support line on July 31, it rebounded and has now rebounded to the short-term support line:
However, the significant reduction in volume indicates weaker buying, so the probability of breaking above the short-term support line is low.
However, considering that Bitcoin still has the potential to continue rebounding and test STH-RP (currently at 67,165), and the Ethereum contract market has concentrated significant liquidation liquidity in the 1980-2000 range,
Therefore, Ethereum may rebound slightly along the short-term support line in the next week or two, then shift to a decline after gaining liquidity in the 1980-2000 range.
Tide-Watching Web3—
Bull and bear cycles, but never wavering in our original intentions; Neither greedy nor impatient, moving forward steadily!#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
市场给出的预期整体CPI年率或从3.5%降至3.4%，核心CPI年率或从2.6%降至2.5%
CPI符合预期或超出预期小于预估CPI，那么意味“通胀仍在有效控制”那么短期对于$BTC $ETH 等来说存在上行动力
高于预期很显然会使得加息概率增加，从而使得市场对于将要收紧流动性提前定价演绎
个人认为可能大概率符合预期，或者低于预期，首先我们可以发现历次中期选举，大选时，多多少少非农等数据有时会迎来新一轮“修正”
并非说一定“不准确”只是在特殊情况下可能会被施压来自政治上的压力
像Trump要发起针对美联储一名官员调查一样（是由于比较坚定加息）
有意思的也是美联储主席沃什曾表态认为加息并不能很好解决问题，相对态度偏鸽，那么CPI在不偏离过大情况下，大概率9月份加息概率下降🤔
9月利率维持不变或许是白宫面对未来中期选举希望看到的结果🤔注意风险
@OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
刚过去的周末，市场看起来很安静。
但本周，安静可能不会持续太久。
大家都在问：
BTC会不会突破？
山寨会不会有机会？
可我更想先看三个问题。
因为它们会影响市场对利率、流动性和风险偏好的重新判断。
第一，周三晚间的美国CPI。
市场不是只看通胀高不高，
而是在看：通胀有没有继续朝着美联储能接受的方向走。
如果数据重新偏热，
高利率维持更久的预期可能升温；
如果数据继续降温，
风险资产才有机会重新讨论流动性改善。
第二，周四晚间的美国PPI。
CPI看的是终端价格，
PPI更像在看上游成本压力。
两组数据如果指向不同方向，
市场未必立刻走趋势，
反而更容易先出现快速波动，再重新犹豫。
第三，周五晚间的美国零售销售。
通胀决定政策空间，
消费则决定增长有没有韧性。
如果消费依然强，市场会继续思考高利率能维持多久；
如果消费明显走弱，市场又要重新评估增长放缓的风险。
所以，本周真正要看的，
不是某一个数字“利多还是利空”。
而是三组数据能不能给出同一个答案：
通胀在降吗？
增长还稳吗？
美联储的政策空间有没有变化？
加密市场也会跟着看美元、美债收益率和风险偏好的实际反应。
另外，BTC网络层面的 BIP-110 信号窗口仍值得跟踪。
它未必直接决定价格，
但它会让市场重新讨论：比特币网络的共识，到底是如何形成的。
本周不急着提前押方向。
先让数据说话，
再让价格确认。
你觉得本周市场最在意的，
会是通胀，还是增长？
$BTC Apple has begun testing Changxin Memory's DRAM chips on the supply chain side, pushing domestic storage manufacturers into the international first-tier consumer electronics verification process.
The news has stimulated risk appetite in the semiconductor equipment and module sectors, with capital paying significant attention to the domestic expansion chain.
At the macro level, overall inflation data remained stable, while in the highly concentrated and geopolitical control sub-sector of storage, the three major monopolies in Korea and the US, with concentrated holdings, faced potential pressure to reshape their market share.
The linkage between upstream equipment procurement demand and downstream module order expectations is gradually becoming clearer, but whether Changxin's process yield can truly pass the high-standard validation of flagship equipment remains to be seen.
If subsequent shipments enter from marginal low-end products and receive confirmation from Changxin's new round of expansion bidding, it will further release risk appetite and lead capital to concentrate in equipment and material sectors. However, policy interference could interrupt this rhythm at any time.
If power consumption control falls short of expectations or external regulatory pressure causes verification to stall, the module-side premium logic will quickly drop to zero, and the previously accumulated gambling funds will face rapid liquidation.
When the market misinterprets routine inquiry as immediate mass production, delays in actual procurement progress completely disprove the high expectations of large short-term orders being delivered.
The most critical variable in the next seven days is whether relevant semiconductor equipment manufacturers will launch substantial expansion tenders and new tender announcements.
#本周三CPI公布. Will the pricing for September rate hikes be rewritten? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #CLARITY表决推迟至9月. The regulatory window has shifted backward大逆转！💰 比特币ETF总算甩掉了连续八周净流出的“晦气”，上周（8月3日-7日）狂揽8.53亿美元，创下4月中旬以来最大单周流入纪录！这波操作直接把之前阴霾一扫而光。
资金高度集中：贝莱德IBIT一家就吞下6.94亿，富达FBTC也捞到1.16亿，两家巨头合计占超八成份额。反观VanEck的HODL却净流出5300多万，机构明显在“用脚投票”，向头部产品集中。💸
更猛的是，五个交易日天天净流入，周二周三尤其火爆，分别冲到2.44亿和2.11亿。为啥突然这么香？两大推手：一是美国7月非农数据意外“爆冷”，美联储9月加息预期骤降，风险资产立马成香饽饽；二是Coldcard硬件钱包漏洞曝光，盗币事件吓坏了自主托管的玩家，不少人干脆转投受监管的ETF求安稳。⚡️
但诡异的是，资金嗨了，币价却有点“磨洋工”——比特币仅从62,200美元爬到65,000美元上方，目前还在6.5万附近晃悠。市场显然在消化BIP-110分叉的不确定性，多空都不敢轻举妄动。🤔
$BTC $SHIB $DOGE
接下来盯紧两件事：贝莱德IBIT的流入势头能否延续，以及9月美国国会复会后《清晰法案》的投票进展。这波机构钱是真金白银长线看好，还是虚晃一枪？答案很快揭晓！🔥👀#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #伯克希尔结束净卖出，重启大额配置 Market Filter #002
ETH still leads at 49/50 no change, still perfect across liquidity, users, and dev activity.
SOL slipped to 45 (from 47). Relative strength cooled from 10 to 8 RSI dropped to 43, price went range-bound despite rising meme coin activity on the chain. Momentum, not fundamentals, is what moved here.
SUI eased to 42 (from 43). Still boxed in on the daily chart, still under a descending weekly channel. Relative strength ticked down 9→8.
ARB holds at 42 but the composition shifted. User growth ticked up (8→9) on real news MetaMask integrated Robinhood Chain, built on Arbitrum's Orbit tech. But relative strength dropped (8→7): price is down ~2% on the week, and a $71M frozen-funds governance dispute on Arbitrum DAO is testing confidence in the "decentralized" part of the pitch. Good news and bad news landed in the same week net score unchanged, but the story underneath it isn't.
APT, CORE, ADA, BICO, GRVT, DOGE: no material news this week that changes the underlying scores. Staying flat isn't a shortcut it's the methodology working as intended. No new data, no new score.
Locked until Nov 2026. Still checking for holes, not conclusions.When the contract gets carried away, your chest feels tight and you can't breathe.
Just after being double-killed by both long and short positions, going long stops the loss, then going short gets blown up, then going long again gets smashed through. The worst part is you clearly profited but didn't exit, precisely hurt the losses, then turned back after trading. When you reverse and then re-enter, the market moves in the opposite direction, as if cameras are installed watching your position.
Turning 10,000 yuan into 3,000 yuan of oil could be overnight. Small profits aren't worth it, insisting on breaking even in one go and eventually going to zero. Looking back at the first position—if you do nothing and don't cut losses, you actually make a big profit. I'm very familiar with this kind of experience; every script has played out in a contract of over two years.
So yesterday I withdrew my money. If you don't have money inside the venue, you can't enter, so there won't be emotional fluctuations. If you want to play, recharge again, no rush.
Currently, $BTC is around 65,500. If it holds steady, try following on the right side; if 64,700 is broken, stop loss. This level feels like it's holding back; the longer it fluctuates, the stronger the direction becomes. Anyway, I'll wait for it to come out first.
$ETH 1930 has been holding back, waiting to break through before advancing.
The $SPCX side had the same vibe. When the lock-up was lifted, short positions accounted for 36% of the circulating market, with a floating profit of over $9 billion on paper. But insiders barely sold, so the bears had to rush to close their positions. On the unlocking day, the stock rose 6%, then surged 8% the next day—exactly the same feeling as the contract market getting precisely hurt, except the direction was reversed. Now SPCX is fluctuating around 133, and 130-135 is the pressure zone near the IPO issue price. Chasing in at this level is no different from chasing a rally in futures contracts.
SanDisk$SNDK is even more conflicted. Q4 revenue was 8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, with a gross margin of 84.6%—a legendary figure in any industry. But what happened? After hours, it plunged 7-9%, dropping from 2354 to around 1218. Even after earnings exceeded expectations, it still fell; even a slightly softer guidance got hammered. Just like the futures market—when good news comes out, it's sold as bad news; when bad news comes back, it keeps dropping—it's simply unreasonable.
When it comes to contracts, everything is clear during review, but when it comes to trading, losses are still the norm. The only thing you learn is: if something feels off, get out first. Don't wait until a margin call to think about the C2C step; the money in the card is most likely also a gift.
SPCX and SanDisk are the same now: if it rises too much, don't chase; if it drops too much, don't rush to buy. Wait until the direction becomes clear. Don't get carried away, stay alive first. #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support insufficient
The BIP-110 crossed out and just gave up, honestly, I wasn't surprised at all.
In 8 hours, only 2 blocks were mined, and the hash rate couldn't keep up, leaving the mainnet behind. In other words, miners were voting with their feet.
There are still plenty of people online debating whether the proposed technology is reasonable or whether inscriptions should be restricted. In reality, Bitcoin governance isn't that much empty material; if consensus isn't in place, anything you say is pointless.
Miners hold real computing power, which is the hardest voting power. Upgrades don't bring real returns and instead take risks, and no one wants to play with you. From quarantine to Taproot, which serious upgrade hasn't been a tug-of-war for years, with all parties clarifying interests before it lands? Many people complain that Bitcoin's upgrades are slow, but it's precisely this "slowness" that has kept it stable until now. If a random proposal can lead to a successful fork, that's the real danger.
Honestly, ordinary retail investors really don't need to get involved in the hype of such forks. I've held BTC for so long and never believed in any stories of forks making money; its core value has never been flashy new features or consensus and security built across the internet. Instead of arguing over proposals and taking sides, it's better to first understand the underlying logic behind your holdings.
$BTC $ETH GRVT 24h +22.96% claimed the top spot again, but the market was as quiet as if it were suspended—Breadth 8:7 looks like it has returned to normal, but the money is only moving in one ticket.
The US stock market leaked first: PC industry (XSPCX) down 2.39%, ARK (XSKHY) down 0.74%, and the S&P (XSPY) basically flat. Traditional risk appetite is quietly retreating—not crashing, but soft.
But BTC didn't follow the decline: volume down -78.6%, price stable at $65,008, OI at 106,500 unchanged, funding +0.0059%, slightly neutral to cold. The withdrawn money didn't actually leave, just sat down.
The structure is obvious: Guangdu rebounded positively, with a lone dragon from GRVT pushing the index red, leaving only knockoffs half-dead, BICO -44.37% still abandoned.
Even the abnormal movements are narrowing—only BICO -2.23% remains in OKX's alert. The collapse has eased, but no one dares to take over, proving this is a vacuum, not a reversal.
A Ruler: Look at Breadth Don't just look at the number of rising or falling stocks, but also the concentration of leading stocks. A single dominant rally with a "correction" is often the false bullish candle to watch out for.
GRVT is now 0.34, which side are you on? A. The group hasn't broken up and keeps pushing / B. Retreat quickly if it rises alone — comment pick your answer and throw out your reason.
#OKX星球 $BTC $GRVT #流动性虹吸 #山寨行情
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.🟠 BTC linkage
Gold rises and oil falls + gold-silver ratio 68.7<70 = loose resonant environment, favorable for BTC.
Once the ceasefire agreement is implemented: oil prices stabilize→ inflation expectations fall→ rate cut paths clear obstacles→ and risk assets benefit. BTC's $65,000 level is relatively strong under the current macro portfolio. But if negotiations suddenly break down→ oil prices rebound violently→ stagflation specter returns→ BTC and risk assets will be hit hard.
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🛢️ Crude oil direction: Bearish but bottom area — MA bearish alignment unchanged, but $68.55 double bottom support + clear supply-side logic, limited space below $70. Short-term rebound targets $80-82 resistance; do not go long before a breakout. If oil prices stabilize after the ceasefire agreement is implemented, it is a bottom confirmation signal.Today's palette is easy to misjudge. I re-crossed the rolling 24-hour calendar with Beijing Time Calendar Day. As of 1 PM on August 10, BTC and ETH on the exchange page were still showing slight increases. Starting from midnight today, BTC fell about 0.37%, ETH down 0.60%, and SOL down 1.18%. This is closer to how many people feel about holding positions. The market seemed to have barely moved, but many other altcoins had already weakened. BTC is still repeatedly pulling around $65,000. Looking upward, first look at the 65,475 to $65,500 range; this is both the 24-hour high and the key point that a short-term breakout must take. As long as it can't hold steady, the market will continue to fluctuate. First, look at $64,777, then $64,178. If the latter level is breached, the recovery from $62,300 this week will be noticeably weaker. ETH's situation is more straightforward. Between 1938 and 1943 dollars, it has been blocked twice in a row, and today it has returned to near 1915 dollars. $1905 is the first line of support; if it falls below it, look for $1895. For the altcoins to make it easier, ETH must at least recover $1,943 first. SOL has risen about 5% over the past 7 days, remaining the strongest among the major cryptocurrencies. However, its contract holdings increased by about 13% in a week, with an account long-short ratio close to 2. Prices are strong, and leverage is also in motion. The upward trend will be smooth, but once it falls below $75.9, the chasers will run quickly. The knockoff season hasn't arrived yet. Among the top 100 altcoins by market capitalization, about 60 rose in the past 7 days, only#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
This time, it's hard for the CPI to fully reinforce expectations for a rate hike in September, so I bet rates will remain unchanged.
Nonfarm payrolls turned negative, and data for the past two months was sharply revised downward. This is not a random fluctuation, but a real cooling of the job market. The Fed has always focused on both employment and inflation, but now one side has clearly eased. Even if core services inflation remains somewhat sticky, it won't turn hawkish solely on a single CPI.
I've suffered losses from data markets several times, so this time I won't heavily gamble on the direction in advance. Hold onto spot positions without moving them, wait for contract shortings to wait and wait for the data to come in and the market stabilizes, which is better than making a little profit from the right bet or getting liquidated if the bet is wrong.
Don't always think about taking the full wave of the market when trading cryptocurrencies; bet less on data and less on black swan opportunities—that's better than anything else.
What do you think—when the CPI comes out on Wednesday, will BTC rally or crash first?
$BTC Oil markets are shifting from diplomatic headlines to implementation risk. With no final Iran-Oman arrangement on Hormuz transit, Brent nearing $84/bbl and WTI reaching $78.50 reflect a market still pricing uncertainty around a critical shipping route.
The Houthi claim of an attack near the Red Sea adds another layer of supply concern, while U.S. officials describe continued economic pressure as preferable to new military action for now. My read: talks alone may offer limited relief; a durable easing of the risk premium likely requires transit terms to take effect. Further delay could keep oil and shipping costs sensitive to each new escalation. NFA.
#HormuzDealStillPending #OKXOrbit刚看了一条消息，让我有点想法...
如果BTC能够突破$66000这个关键阻力位，那么我认为它很可能会一路上涨到$68000，因为近期的交易量已经显示出了一定的上升趋势。
如果ETH的价格能够维持在$1900以上，并且24小时交易量继续增加，那么我预计它将继续看涨，目标价位为$2000，因为它的走势与BTC有很强的相关性。
我认为BTC突破$66000更为可能，因为近期的行情数据显示，它的价格已经从$64777.00上涨到$65474.46，显示出了一定的上升趋势。
如果这种趋势继续下去，我预计BTC将继续看涨，带动整个市场向上，所以我看多BTC和整个市场。
#BTC #ETH # LOOKDAWGAI hardware will be reevaluated in the next round; optical interconnect may be more resilient than GPUs, but storage is far from over.
The market has recently started trading "empty storage, multi-optics." What truly deserves attention is not the choice between the two, but the AI bottleneck stretching from inside chips to the rack.
NVIDIA Rubin's single GPU still supports up to 288GB HBM4, but NVLink 6's bandwidth is increased to 3.6TB/s; Rubin Ultra goes further, combining 576 GPUs into a unified computing domain and introducing direct optical connectivity.
Industry data has already started to pay off: Lumentum's latest quarterly revenue was $808 million, up +90% year-on-year; Coherent revenue was $1.81 billion. Optical communications are becoming a new bottleneck for AI cluster expansion.
But don't rush to sentence HBM to death. Micron expects the HBM market size to grow from about $35 billion in 2025 to about $100 billion in 2028, and believes that the supply-demand tightness for DRAM/NAND will continue beyond 2027.
So my framework is:
For HBM, look at MU/SK Hynix; for optical modules, look at Zhongji Accelink/NewYisheng; for optical devices, look at Tianfu; for overseas optics, look at COHR/LITE/AAOI.
The real main theme of the next phase is not "storage losing to optics."
It's that AI has moved from buying GPUs to buying entire data centers. $SNDK #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 🤣 兄弟们，$BICO这走势，你们是不是跟我一样，总觉得这剧本在哪儿看过？我盯着K线图，越看越眼熟，这味儿太冲了，简直是把$COAI、$LAB、$BSB、$RAVE那几出大戏的经典片段，又给我原封不动地重播了一遍。 讲真，上次在$RAVE和$LAB身上交过学费之后，我现在看到这种暴力拉升，心里第一反应不是“卧槽，快上车”，而是“卧槽，这镰刀是不是已经举起来了”。所以哪怕$BICO现在涨得跟窜天猴似的，我也绝对不会脑子一热就冲进去开空单。真的，兄弟们，别急着去接那把往下掉的刀，你以为你在抄底，搞不好就是抄在半山腰，风一吹，人就没了。 有些交易员朋友觉得，哎呀，都涨了十倍了，这肯定是顶了吧？赶紧空它！但我劝你们冷静，咱们把老黄历翻出来看看，这剧本的走向可不是这么写的： 🚀 $LAB，当年那是奔着近200倍去的，什么叫疯狂？ 🚀 $RAVE，大概150倍，你以为它到头了，它反手就教你做人。 🚀 $COAI，也有120倍左右，这哪里是币，这是坐上了火箭。 在这种纯靠情绪和资金推动的行情里，十倍真的就是个开胃菜，它不代表“到此为止”，反而更像是大戏开演前敲的那一通锣鼓。在这种行情面前，散If Wednesday's CPI exceeds expectations, then the rate cut expectations brought by nonfarm payrolls will be overturned in an instant.
What is the current state of the market?
The Fear and Greed Index is 31, in the "panic" range.
The 7-day average is 28.
The entire market is anxiously waiting.
But there's one thing you might not have noticed.
While retail investors are anxious, institutions are rushing to buy shares.
From August 3 to 7, over five trading days, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $853.5 million.
This is the strongest weekly inflow since mid-April.
BlackRock IBIT alone attracted $693 million, accounting for 81% of total inflows.
On August 3 alone, the total market saw a net inflow of $170 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $111 million.
BlackRock IBIT has been increasing its Bitcoin holdings every day this week.
Some might say: Institutions buying ETFs doesn't necessarily mean bullish; it could be arbitrage.
Alright, let's look at another stat.
Bitcoin's 24-hour spot trading volume rose to about $20.9 billion, up about 13.5% from the previous day.
Real money is being paid to the market, not just empty talk.
And this isn't the first time. Every weak nonfarm payroll in 2023 has driven BTC up 5-6% on the day.
This time, it only rose 0.7%.
It's not because the logic has changed, but because the market is waiting for CPI confirmation.
Once CPI is confirmed to cool, that "late" increase will be made up.
The current market is just like the sea before a storm.
Nonfarm payrolls gave an opening but no direction.
Everyone is waiting for Wednesday.
But the money from the institutions is not waiting—they are buying.
So what now?
Before the CPI, control your positions. Don't go all out betting on direction.
After CPI, act bravely.
Two scripts, planned in advance:
Scenario 1: CPI is below or equal to expectations (overall 3.4%, core 2.5%)→ Rate cut expectations are consolidating, and BTC has huge room to catch up.
Scenario 2: CPI Exceeds Expectations → September rate hike expectations resurface, putting short-term pressure on institutions, but institutional cost zones are between 58,000 and 67,000 yuan, so a deep drop presents an opportunity.
Be greedy when fearful, but always take stop-loss measures.$BTC
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
This Wednesday's CPI
It could directly rewrite the pricing for the Fed's September rate hike
The probability of a rate hike has dropped from about 55% to 44%
Because weak employment data put the brakes on the market first
If core CPI continues to cool
A rate hike in September will basically be traded out
But as long as core services inflation rebounds back above 50%, it won't be difficult
What the market really fears is not high CPI
It's that employment is weakening but inflation can't be suppressed
That is the most painful scenario for risk assets
CPI data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday Terafab与FEL路线引发光刻格局讨论，核心矛盾在于千瓦级连续稳定生产的工程门槛远高于峰值功率测试。市场交易焦点正从纯粹的概念溢价转向设备供应链风险。
当前盘面交易主要围绕半导体资本开支预期展开，市场多空博弈集中在成熟生态与新技术替代的价值重构上。在未获得官方确认前，资本偏好对上游设备垄断者的避险配置依然主导仓位分布。
驱动因素排序依次为：晶圆厂长年高强度生产的可靠性验证、多台扫描仪分光效率对资本开支的压降幅度、以及现有供应链价值链的重组节奏。资金更关注实际落地所带来的风险溢价变动。
第一种上行剧本：若市场风险偏好抬升且新技术展示出突破工程稳定性的迹象，资金将对多扫描仪共用光源方案重新定价。在此情境下，传统单机光源环节的估值溢价将被削弱，上游设备与集成架构仓位会发生跨板块挤压。
该剧本的触发条件为晶圆厂公开验证FEL长时间连续运转成本降低，需要观察的变量是加速器运维支出是否低于LPP维护成本。失效信号则是连续运行出现停机风险导致总产出下降。
第二种下行剧本：若工程落地遭遇瓶颈，ASML已展示的1,000瓦LPP光源可靠性壁垒将继续固化其商业垄断。1,000瓦不仅是技术参数，更是商业化连续产出的基准线，无法跨越此线的概念炒作将引发高beta仓位快速回撤。
该剧本的触发条件为市场避险情绪回升及概念兑现期拉长，资金重新拥抱具备二十余年工程积累的成熟产业链。需要观察的变量为LPP光源的产能交付进度，失效信号则是FEL路线取得商业化量产突围。
判断失效条件在于，若宏观通胀压力传导至设备采购端导致整体晶圆厂资本开支被大幅削减，所有光源路线的估值锚点都将按比例下修。此时资金将摆脱单点技术争论，转向全面防守性避险。
未来7天最重要的观察变量是晶圆厂与设备厂商针对集中式光源与Terafab架构的表态变化及资金仓位在半导体龙头股中的流动方向。
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
这次CPI其实很关键，因为市场刚经历了一轮就业数据降温
7月非农意外减少2.3万人，5月和6月就业合计下修10.3万人。就业明显弱于预期，市场对9月加息的押注已经降温，目前主流预测大约是55%到65%概率维持利率不变
接下来就看CPI能不能继续给美联储降压
市场预期7月CPI同比从3.5%降到3.4%，核心CPI从2.6%降到2.5%
我觉得：
▶️ CPI低于预期
9月加息概率继续下降，美债收益率和美元承压，BTC和科技股可能受益
▶️ CPI符合预期
市场大概率继续观望，加息预期不会明显升温
▶️ CPI重新走高
那就比较麻烦，9月加息交易可能卷土重来
但我更关注核心服务通胀
现在美联储面对的是一个很尴尬的局面：就业开始降温，但通胀还没回到2%
所以这次CPI即使降了，也不代表9月一定降息
我的判断是，9月加息概率正在下降，但降息交易还没真正启动
8月12日CPI，可能是下一次市场重新定价的关键节点
非投资建议 DYORRecently, mainstream spot coin ETFs have become noticeably more active, especially with $BTC and $ETH institutional channels experiencing continuous net inflows again. Farside data shows that in mid to late July, BTC ETFs saw multiple consecutive days of net subscriptions, and ETH ETFs also saw multiple single-day net inflows worth tens of millions of dollars.
Previously, market trends mainly relied on crypto-native funds, contract leverage, and retail investor sentiment; Now, with ETFs reappearing as capital support, traditional financial funds are starting to increase their allocation weighting to digital assets again.
These characteristics:
Large positions, long cycles, and low turnover.
Therefore, sustained net ETF inflows are often more noteworthy than a single altcoin suddenly jumping 30%.
BTC is a liquidity anchor, while ETH is an amplifier of risk appetite
If the following appears:
BTC ETFs continue to see net inflows→ BTC prices consolidate sideways to absorb selling pressure→ ETH ETFs see simultaneous volume increases→ ETH and BTC begin to strengthen
This is the structure I truly want to see.
Because this means the market is shifting from $BTC safe-haven allocations to $ETH and high-beta assets.
Only after that could it be the turn of $SOL, $SUI, $LINK, $TAO, AI, RWA, and other tracks.
This is a typical example:
$BTC first absorb liquidity → $ETH confirm risk appetite→ Counterfeit has started beta spreading.
Right now, the logic of US stocks and crypto has a very interesting resonance:
Funds are chasing "real capital expenditures."
AI data centers, optical communications, computing power, and power infrastructure remain the main focus.
$COHR
One of my current favorite stocks to watch in U.S. stocks.
Coherent is essentially the "shovel seller" of the AI Data Center.
The company's latest financial report shows quarterly revenue reached $1.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, while gross margin continues to improve. The company clearly states strong data center demand and is expanding capacity.
The core indicator for these stocks is not the story, but the following:
Orders → Revenue → Gross Margin → CapEx → FCF.
If the AI CapEx cycle continues, COHR's position in the industry chain is worth ongoing tracking.
$LITE
Lumentum is a high-prosperity Beta target in optical communications.
Its logic is very straightforward:
The larger the AI cluster, the more GPUs there are→→ the higher the demand for data handling, and the stronger the demand for → optical interconnection.
Moreover, the company will announce its Q4 and full-year results for fiscal year 2026 after the U.S. market closes on August 11, so the short-term term is a typical earnings catalyst.
$AAOI
This belongs to the higher-beta optical module standard.
Recently, the optical communication sector has seen clear capital consolidation, with $AAOI, $COHR, and $LITE strengthening simultaneously.
But here, don't mix:
A strong sector = the company is definitely worth following.
$AAOI More suitable for judgment using volume-price structure + earnings expectations + order visibility.
$PLTR
$PLTR is, in my opinion, the most typical commercial AI validator right now.
The latest quarterly revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149%, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance.
This means the market is no longer speculating about the "AI concept," but rather:
Has AI truly translated into Revenue and FCF?
This is known as AI monetization.
$AMAT
If I want to find AI targets that are relatively "shovel-selling," I put Applied Materials into the observation pool.
Unlike pure AI software, which relies on emotions, it benefits from:
Advanced process + HBM + AI chips + semiconductor equipment CapEx.
This week is also an important window for US earnings reports, with AMAT, LITE, COHR, and others all worth watching.
Finally, let's look at a key indicator
Continued net inflows into ETFs + $BTC prices remain steady + $ETH and $BTC strengthen + US Treasury yields fall + the US dollar is no longer strong + counterfeit trading volume expands.
If these variables start to resonate, that's true risk-on.
And if it occurs:
A large influx of ETFs, but $BTC surged and then retreated; $ETH did not follow; Counterfeit trading volume shrank
That may just mean institutions are rebalancing positions at low levels, and does not represent a new full bull market.
So my current observation order:
$BTC ETFs → $ETH ETF → $ETH, $BTC → knockoff Beta → US AI CapEx.
The US stock market is focusing on $COHR, $LITE, $AAOI, $PLTR, and $AMAT.
Personal market research records do not constitute investment advice.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 🔥🔥🔥 Monday Market News - 10/08
+ Brent oil inched slightly to $87, US stock futures, gold, BTC all stomped waiting for new developments [CT]
+ Trump is said to be advocating cooling down with Iran, prioritizing economic pressure instead of force [CT]
🗓 Event Calendar
+ 19h30 12/08: CPI 🇺🇸 inflation in July
- Y/Y CPI Inflation (Forecast = 3.4%, Previous = 3.5%)
- Core CPI Y/Y Inflation (Forecast = 2.5%, Previous = 2.6%)
+ 19:30 13/08: PPI 🇺🇸 inflation in July
- PPI Y/Y Inflation (Forecast = 5.0%, Previous = 5.5%)
- Core PPI Y/Y Inflation (Forecast = 4.7%, Previous = 4.7%)
⏰ Bitcoin trading timelines to pay attention to: 16-17h today and 0-1am & 4-5am tomorrow [CT]
+ Buffett's Berkshire fund net bought nearly $20B in stocks in Q2, ending a streak of 14 consecutive quarters of net selling [CT]
+ BTC ETF netted +$853M last week, the highest since mid-April, BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for nearly 81% [CT]
+ Trump's WLFI project suspected of selling $100M in tokens to a fund investigated for money laundering in the UK [CT]
+ Brazil 🇧🇷 asks exchanges to withhold >$10K transfers for 24 hours from exchanges to crack down on fraud and money laundering [CT]
+ Controversial proposal: Bitcoin BIP-110 network fails to vote, dev team tries to split into a private network but still holds [CT]
+ Enterprise crypto payment platform Coinsbuy hacked $7.9M on Ethereum and TRON, freezing >$100K [CT]
🔓Token unlock [CT]
12/08: Aptos unlocks 11.31M $APT (0.66% of circulating supply), worth $6.66M
15/08: Sei unlocks 88.89M $SEI (1.42% of circulating supply), worth $3.67M
16/08: YZY unlocks 120M $YZY (22.83% of circulating supply), worth $35.2M
08/16: Arbitrum unlocks 92.65M $ARB (1.61% of circulating supply), valued at $7.19M
=====#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
After the unexpected "upset" in the nonfarm payrolls, the market finally caught a breather, but the real decisive battle is yet to come. The US July CPI, set to be released this Wednesday (August 12), can be seen as the "final blow" before the September policy meeting.
I think this week's CPI is very likely to support "keeping rates unchanged." Last week, July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, and combined with the sharp downward revision of data from the previous two months, it shows the US labor market is much more fragile than expected. The cooling employment directly weakened the Fed's justification for a rate hike in September.
Currently, the market generally forecasts a slight year-on-year decline in overall CPI and core CPI for July (core CPI forecast drops to 2.5%). If inflation continues to cool and weak employment data persists, the probability of a rate hike in September is very likely to decline further or even be ruled out. However, caution should be held against the sticky inflation risks in core services; if the data is hot, hawkish expectations may rebound instantly.
I choose to "wait for the data to come in before deciding." During the current macro game period, my trading habit is to never heavily invest in one-sided bets.
After the release of the nonfarm payroll data, the probability of a rate hike in September plummeted from 55% to around 44%, indicating significant market division and no absolute consensus.
When the direction is unclear, early heavy positions are like flipping a coin. I usually keep a base position and wait for the "referee whistle" on Wednesday night before adjusting my position based on actual data trends and market sentiment.
What I focus on most is: "Can BTC Break Through the $65,000 Mark?" Macro data directly determines global liquidity expectations. If CPI is moderate and the dollar weakens, Bitcoin as a risk asset will directly benefit from cooling rate hike expectations.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
Currently, $BTC is consolidating around $65,000, facing resistance at $66,300 or even $70,000 above, and support at $64,400 below. The first reaction after CPI is to see if BTC can hold above $65,000 with increased volume. If a breakout is effective, it means the crypto market has retaken the liquidity narrative; If it surges and then pulls back, it indicates the market is still digesting macro uncertainty.
$ETH has been suppressed for a long time, below 1950. I think we need to wait for market expectations to emerge before moving into a one-sided rally. My trading plan is just as described above: low-long trades
$OKB Continue regular investment and wait for a big investment They say the knockoff season is coming, but I refuse to believe it.
Let me be clear: I see a bearish counterfeit season, and in the next two weeks, knockoffs won't outperform BTC.
What does the real knockoff season look like? ETH leads with volume growth, and the leader can hold up for a week. And now? If you change a leader every day, the one that led yesterday can be at the bottom today, and chasing in is just boosting the big players.
My judgment: unless ETH rises with increased volume and leads the rally above 2000, I only watch BTC and won't touch any knockoffs.
Which side are you on: Is the knockoff season really here, or is it a rotating lottery? Bet a lot in the comments, come back in two weeks to check the answer.
#山寨币 #ETH #BTC#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? Let me start with the conclusion: I lean toward this CPI that this time will not completely overturn the easing expectations for September, but it will determine whether BTC's current wave is a "rate cut trade" or just another data rebound. Nonfarm payrolls have already given the market a direction: in July, nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000, with employment clearly cooling. Now, the real question remains: whether inflation will cooperate. This time, I focus most on the core CPI month-on-month ratio. If core CPI ≤ 0.2%: I would significantly raise my bullish outlook on BTC. The reason is simple: weak employment + declining inflation = further reasons for the Fed to remain hawkish. At this point, BTC really needs to be watched: 66K—67K. Once the volume increases and the position holds, I will upgrade my judgment from "oscillating to slightly bullish" to "confirmation of a new round of upward attacks," with the next target being 68K–70K. But if core CPI returns to 0.3% or even higher: the market will trade again: "Employment is weak, but inflation is still unresolved." Then the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rebound, with BTC first targeting 64K, then further to 63K. So I won't be betting heavily on CPI in advance right now. My execution was clear: **Remain bullish above 64K. Break through 66K–67K, I turn strong. Falling below 63K and unable to recover, this logic failed. ** Personally, I'm more biased toward scenario A: CPI continues to cool, and the market remains loose in trading. But what truly determines the market trend is not the CPI figure itself. But after the data comes out: BTC is going all the way$DRAM Dark pools are held at 49-50, with short-term insurance buying for hedging, and long-term remains bullish.
In the early session, directional Delta/Vega flows were clearly negative, then stopped worsening but remained in negative territory.
The storage sector is still focused on risk reduction, profit-taking, and buying protection. $MU has also seen similar negative flow, putting pressure on the entire storage sector.
The NOPE indicator showed a significant divergence. It opened quickly and turned negative, then continued to rebound, then remained positive, and near the close, even rose above 6.
Meanwhile, DRAM prices only recovered from 48.8 to around 50.5. Internal pressure in the options market has recovered faster than spot prices.
49–50.25 is currently the most important institutional price acceptance zone. At the same time, the Gamma structure has also turned 50–51 into a very clear short-term price range.
The implied volatility of remote virtual puts is already significantly higher than the corresponding call. Funds are willing to go long again, but at the same time, they're buying insurance for another round of 'storage sector sell-off.' The structure of open interest is also very consistent.
Funds are repackaging short-term directional risks into growth cycle upward elasticity and tail protection.
In other words, short-term insurance is used for hedging, while long-term outlook remains bullish. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? $SNDK This round is really tough. Financial reports and revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, gross margin was 84.6%, and 14 billion yuan was approved for buybacks, yet the stock price still plummeted from 1390 all the way down to around 1200. Now there are also executive share reductions—CEO about $5.7 million, CTO about $9.8 million—so market sentiment is naturally more sensitive. Although selling doesn't mean fundamentals have worsened, when high levels are already fragile, negative news can easily be amplified. My own grid is still running, with a strong parity price of 930, so I'm not messing around for now. In the past, whenever it dropped, I'd panic and cut it; now I want to give it a bit more time $BTC $OKB
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SNDK’s earnings weren’t the problem. Revenue beat, profit beat, gross margin hit 84.6%, and the company approved a $14B buyback.
Yet price still got smashed from 1390 to around 1200.
Now insiders are adding fuel. The CEO sold about $5.7M, CTO $9.8M, a director $13.4M, and CFO $2.5M. That’s a lot of profit-taking near the highs.
But I’m not calling this a fundamental breakdown. Insiders selling after a huge run doesn’t automatically mean the business is cooked. The CEO still owns a lot.
My grid is still running. Liquidation is around 930, so I’m not touching it unless price breaks that level. This looks more like sentiment getting punched than the storage thesis dying.
I’m not rushing. Let the market cool off first.
$BTC $OKB $SNDK
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ OKX launches dual-currency investments in xGOOGL, xMETA, and xAMD.
Bybit added EBAYUSDT and CIFRUSDT perpetual contracts on the same day.
Both leading exchanges have been moving toward 'synthetic stocks' for the same week.
There's only one logic: whoever lets retail investors buy Nasdaq with USDT first gets the next wave of new users.
The regulatory arbitrage window is still open; once the US stock market is truly opened, this door will close.
Bybit also launched the MOONSHOT Pre-IPO perpetual contract this week—before the IPO even begins, you can already go long or short on its valuation. Entering the market earlier means risking it a step earlier.
With every step TradFi takes forward, its on-chain settlement volume rises significantly, with ETH driving behind it.
$ETHUSDC把现在的币圈用一句话总结，就是：**“暴富神话退潮，华尔街和 AI 接管战场，散户正在被‘正规军’暴打。”**
如果把现在的币圈比作一个江湖，它已经从以前“草莽遍地、人人能挖矿暴富”的野蛮时代，全面演变成了**机构化、合规化、自动化**的合规金融战场。
结合当下行情和行业底层动向，现在的币圈主要呈现出以下 4 个最显著的特征：
### 1. 价格横盘“打瞌睡”，波幅创下新低
* **盘面现状**：大饼（BTC）目前卡在 **$64,000 – $65,000** 附近来回拉扯，隐含波动率压到了近期的极低水平。
* **背后的真相**：以前散户追涨杀跌，动不动单日波动 10%-20%；现在筹码绝大多数都流向了现货 ETF（如 BlackRock 等机构）以及企业财库（DAT 模式）。机构在低位默默接盘锁仓，散户不敢追，导致盘面呈现出一种**“极度沉闷、看似要变盘”的挤压状态**。
### 2. “山寨季”消失，散户赚钱极其困难
* **流动性割裂**：以前是大饼涨完二饼（ETH）涨，二饼涨完山寨（Altcoins）乱飞。现在资金只沉淀在大饼、SOL 以及少数强公链/平台币上。
* **互割盘严重**：VC（创投）推出的项目开盘就是高估值、低流通，上线即暴跌，专门接盘散户；而链上 MEME 币（土狗）生命周期缩短到只有几个小时，散户去玩基本是“百里挑一”的概率被抽血。
### 3. 主导叙事变了：AI Agents + RWA（真实资产上链）
* **AI 成为新引擎**：AI Agents（自主 AI 代理）结合区块链支付（如 x402 协议）风头正劲。AI 不仅能自主管理链上资产、做微支付，还能自动化调仓，链上机器人交互量大爆发。
* **RWA 落地**：传统金融（华尔街）把国债、美股甚至私有债代币化（RWA）搬上链，目前规模爆发式增长，币圈正在被当成“24/7 不休市的高效结算网络”来用。
### 4. 监管大幕拉开，“合规”成了唯一护城河
* 随着美国《CLARITY Act》等监管法案的推进，以及全球各地合规框架（如欧洲 MiCA）落地，以前那种“无脑发币、逃避监管”的灰色玩法空间被极大地压缩。
* 交易所（如币安、OKX 等）都在拼命抢合规牌照和安全审计，不合规的边缘小平台和隐私币种生存越来越艰难。
💡 **给现在的普通投资者一条真心建议：**
> **现在的币圈早已不是“买啥都能翻倍”的赌场，而是资本和算法高度博弈的金融市场。**
> 散户想要活下来，最稳妥的策略就是：**重仓 BTC/ETH/SOL 稳住底仓，远离高倍杠杆和乱七八糟的垃圾山寨币，把本金交给纪律，而不是交给侥幸。**
>
$BTC $ETH $SOL $CORE 昨日看完CORE官方最新推文，我没有看到所谓的重磅利好，反而看明白了现阶段项目最真实的现状：已经没有新的增量故事可以释放，只能反复包装基础底线，用来维稳市场情绪。
官方整段文案核心四句：核心系统100%正常运行、Bitcoin产品成功接入、项目已产生实际收入、持续运行是一切发展的前提。
放在普通散户眼里，这是稳、是落地、是基本面变好；但放在长期盯盘、拆叙事的人眼里，这是一套非常标准、成熟、专门收割持仓预期的文字游戏。
我先讲第一个最核心、所有人都被误导的点：系统100%正常运行，是所有公链的最低及格线，绝非利好。
一家餐饮店正常开门营业，不叫业绩爆发；一条公链正常出块、不宕机、不崩溃，是项目方最基础的工作职责，是本该做到的底线。
但官方刻意把“没出故障”包装成“超强实力、稳定可期”，刻意制造认知差。
市面上无数公链全年零故障、系统百分百稳定，依旧长期阴跌、生态死寂、无人问津。
稳定不等于值钱，正常运转不等于有资金愿意接盘。 这是现阶段市场最大的误区，也是官方最擅长利用的心理漏洞。
第二点，整篇推文最大的烟雾弹——“已产生实际收入”。
这句话看似落地，实则是全篇最空洞、最敷衍的话术。
全程零数据、零规模、零成本、零利润、零归属、零持续性说明。
官方完全不回答市场最关心的核心问题：
收入月流水多少？是微薄手续费还是规模化收益？
扣除节点运维、团队运营成本后是否还有净利润？
产生的收入能否回购、能否赋能代币、能否回馈生态？
收入是一次性短期流水，还是长期可持续现金流？
在资本市场逻辑里，不能落地到代币价值、不能减少抛压、不能吸引增量资金的收入，等于无效收入。
官方模糊化表述，就是故意让散户自己脑补“盈利、落地、商业化成熟”的画面，用一句空泛的话撑起整个利好叙事。
第三点，强行捆绑BTC叙事，制造“正统生态”假象。
整篇文案刻意高亮Bitcoin产品接入，目的非常明确：蹭BTC顶级流量、蹭赛道热度、给用户营造“背靠比特币生态、拥有顶级资源”的错觉。
但真实情况极其骨感：
CORE和比特币主网没有官方从属关系、没有独家技术合作、没有独占生态资源。
所谓BTC产品接入，只是赛道常规的BTCFi功能布局，是目前绝大多数公链都在做的通用升级，毫无稀缺性、毫无壁垒、毫无不可替代性。
利用普通人对比特币的信仰背书自身，是现阶段最省力、最经典的抬预期套路。
第四点，极致的选择性报喜不报忧，刻意屏蔽所有真实利空。
官方在渲染稳定、渲染落地、渲染商业化的同时，对盘面真实问题只字不提：
节点持续流出、算力委托热度持续下滑；
链上活跃度低迷，真实用户增量近乎停滞；
代币长期解锁释放源源不断的抛压；
BTCFi赛道内卷严重，大量竞品分流资金与热度；
盘面长期弱势，买盘枯竭，存量博弈严重。
只展示最好看的一面，屏蔽所有负面现实，本质就是用静态的稳定，掩盖动态的衰退。
最后那句“持续运行是这一切的前提”，是隐性的心理PUA。
它悄悄给所有持仓者植入一个错误逻辑：只要项目没崩、系统没停，未来就一定会涨。
但市场的真相是：资金从来不奖励“不跑路、不崩盘”的项目，资金只奖励成长、增量、热度与稀缺性。
系统可以永远24小时稳定运行，但市场周期不会等人，热点不会停驻，散户的耐心和场外增量资金不会一直停留。
总结一句最真实的话：
今天这条官推，没有任何新增落地、没有任何新增利好、没有任何增量资金逻辑。
纯粹是把本该做到的底线，包装成来之不易的进展，用来稳住摇摇欲坠的情绪。
你们觉得，这种“底线式利好”，能撑起后续行情反转吗？还是纯粹的官方常规维稳？
⚠️免责提示：内容仅为市场观点思辨交流，不构成任何投资、交易建议。$WLD /USDT is staging a strong recovery expansion, pushing back toward its local peak following a bounce off its bottom base.
Taking a closer look at the 4-hour chart on OKX, WLD is currently trading around 0.3286, logging a solid +5.08% daily gain. After consolidating above its local bottom floor at 0.2936, price built a steady series of higher lows before buyers launched an aggressive green candle rally, pushing price within reach of its local high at 0.3321.
🚀 Immediate Resistance
✓ 0.3301 (24h High)
✓ 0.3321 (Local Peak)
📊 Current Trading Price
✓ 0.3286
✓ 0.3057 (24h Low)
🛡️ Key Psychological Support Level
✓ 0.3200
✓ 0.3120
📉 Major Support Level
✓ 0.3040
✓ 0.2936 (Local Bottom)
If you're watching this setup on OKX, upside continuation relies on buyers securing a clean 4-hour candle close above the 0.3321 local peak. Clearing that barrier paves the way for further expansion toward higher targets. On the flip side, if sellers reject this retest, price could pull back to test intermediate support around 0.3200 or retreat toward the 0.3120 structural floor.
Keep an eye out for steady volume expansion on upcoming candle closes to confirm true buying conviction behind this recovery phase. Strict risk management and disciplined stop-loss placement near support remain essential.
$WLD $ACT #OKXTraderVoices #BonkDAOAttackProbe #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support insufficient
Hilarious! After mining two blocks from the BIP-110 fork, Bitcoin was "delayed"—Bitcoin wasn't afraid at all
Brothers, big news! The much-discussed Bitcoin BIP-110 fork had its ending already written in advance—after splitting at block height 961,632, only 2 blocks were mined in about 8 hours before completely stalling, now lagging behind the mainnet by more than 80 blocks. Is that all?
Hashrate doesn't lie—a 2.6% approval rating says it all
This BIP-110 proposal, which claims to "eliminate inscriptions and purify the network," essentially aims to impose seven consensus restrictions on Bitcoin transactions, prohibiting the inclusion of images, text, and other non-payment data in transactions. Sounds pretty nice, right? But miners vote with their feet—only 2.6% of hash power sends a signal of support, less than a fraction of the 55% activation threshold.
Let me do the math: this forked chain inherits Bitcoin's current difficulty, and with this amount of hashrate, the next difficulty adjustment will take about 350 days. In other words, for the next year, the chain's block production speed will be as slow as a snail, basically declaring it "brain dead."
Who is supporting the big shots and who is opposing?
The harshest part of this round is that Michael Saylor directly compared this to a "constitutional crisis," calling BIP-110 an attack on economic rights and that internal corruption is Bitcoin's greatest threat. As the head of MicroStrategy, his words carry weight.
On the other side, Blockstream CEO Adam Back also fired back, bluntly saying that the BIP-110 solution itself has a bunch of flaws and that pushing it forward will only turn it into the next BSV. Look, both Bitcoin giants are siding with the mainnet—how can this fight still be held?
My view: Bitcoin's "tamper-resistant" nature has been reaffirmed
To be honest, the BIP-110 drama actually made me feel more at ease. It proved one thing: Bitcoin's governance isn't decided by a few developers, nor can it be changed by a single KOL shouting a few times. Anyone who wants to change consensus rules must first get through the miners and nodes.
Some say this is a governance crisis, but I think it's a healthy sign—99.85% of computing power stays obediently on the mainnet, and the so-called "forced switching" is all talk and no action. Bitcoin's value lies precisely in this "hard to change" attitude. Any proposal wanting to overhaul Bitcoin must face reality: without anyone playing with you, you're just a solo party.
For those worried that inscriptions and runes could bring down Bitcoin, look at this data: BIP-110 forked chain took 8 hours and 2 blocks, while the Bitcoin mainnet produced over 80 blocks during the same period. The market has already given the answer.
Do you think the BIP-110 will make a comeback? Share your thoughts in the comments section!$BTC The Bank of Japan is stirring up the situation again! Is the 65,000 support line on the brink? 🚨
The real trigger for the next wave of volatility may come from Japan.
On August 10, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of its July meeting:
There are internal divisions.
Hawks believe:
🔥 Inflation is approaching the 2% target
🔥 Rate hikes cannot stop; Easing policies must continue to be phased out
Dove Warning:
⚠️ The impact of previous rate hikes on the economy has not yet been fully apparent; It should not be too aggressive.
On the surface, it seems like a matter of disagreement,
But the market's biggest concern is that the Bank of Japan suddenly turned hawkish again.
Why?
Because in recent years, the world's largest source of "cheap capital" has been Japan.
Borrow yen → buy US stocks → buy cryptocurrencies → buy high-risk assets.
Once the market begins betting on Japan continuing to raise interest rates:
The yen rose 📈
Carry trading is lifted 💥
Leveraged funds withdraw 🏃
BTC and ETH are under pressure 📉
Last year, a unilateral shift by the Bank of Japan sent a severe shock through global markets, and the crypto market experienced a wave of liquidations.
Now:
BTC：$64,999
ETH：$1,914
In reality, the market is waiting for direction.
The real danger is not the fall,
Instead, when everyone thinks "it won't fall anymore," liquidity suddenly dries up.
Next, focus on:
👀 Yen movement
👀 Bank of Japan officials speak
👀 Whether carry funds have started to be withdrawnIn AI computing hardware, memory (HBM/DRAM) and optics (optical modules/optical interconnect) have always been the GPU's right-hand supporters. Over the past year, the market has been wildly speculating on HBM shortages, and South Korea's storage giant has been hyped up to the skies. But recently, the tide has turned. Citrini analyst jukan just posted a controversial tweet that easily surpassed 2 million views. He laid his cards on the table: "I think the market ultimately has no choice but to short storage and go long on optical in the short term. In fact, some hedge funds seem to have already built up positions. " He gave three hardcore reasons: 1. The collapse of Korean leveraged ETFs, with LPs making frantic redemptions, has put huge passive selling pressure on Korean storage stocks. 2 The most critical point: NVIDIA is "nerfing" the HBM of the Rubin Ultra architecture by using optical technology to connect multiple racks into clusters to compensate for the performance shortcomings of individual machines. 3 Market consensus is forming — storage prices will peak within the next two quarters. Two months ago, he still considered SK Hynix a Top Pick, but now that he's switched to that, it's already controversial. But putting emotions aside, he actually hit a harsh industry truth: when single-card HBM faces physical and cost bottlenecks, the big players (NVIDIA) rely on "optical interconnection" to create miracles. This directly leads to a shift in profit distribution across the industry chain: storage certainty is declining, while optical certainty is rising. Following this logic, let's briefly review the core optical/optical connectivity stocks currently leading in China, the US, and South KoreaIn the last few days of last week, a piece of data kept circulating in my mind.
Daily BTC inflows on exchanges dropped from 40,000 to around 30,000, a decrease of about 25%.
What does that mean?
Fewer people are willing to top up coins and sell.
This isn't someone holding a tray; it's potential selling pressure actively contracting.
Exchange balances also dropped to 2.18 million coins, the lowest point since 2018.
The available supply in the market is decreasing, but the price is still grinding between 64,000 and 65,000. Buyers have not encountered large-scale spot selling pressure, indicating that prices are passively sideways here, not someone holding onto selling orders $BTC There is a type of wallet whose recent actions differ from the overall market atmosphere.
Bitcoin addresses holding positions for over five years saw their transfer frequency increase by nearly 20% in the past 30 days.
These old addresses usually don't move much; once they do, they become very sensitive.
But this time is different—they don't transfer to exchanges, but mainly reorganize and migrate between addresses.
It's not selling, it's consolidating positions. This move happened before the price took off in 2020, and at the bottom area at the end of 2022. Early holders have indeed been working recently, but not selling off $BTC Those holding coins are most concerned about one question right now: what CPI figures will be released tomorrow night.
Nonfarm payrolls have turned negative, and market expectations for a rate hike in September have dropped significantly, but oil prices have returned to high levels due to activity across the strait.
These two variables point in completely opposite directions—weaker employment, interest rate cuts, and higher inflation in oil prices.
Tomorrow's CPI is a direct direction set. If the data falls short of expectations, the 65,000 level may be broken. If core inflation stays above 3.5%, the 64,000 support will return to a stress test state. The current market is a bit like the calm before a storm; everyone knows the direction is coming soon, but no one knows which direction to go. When the data comes out tomorrow night, those who should enter will gradually enter the market, and those who should go will leave. Before the direction is set, the best strategy is to watch more and move less $BTC A rebound does not equal a trend reversal; intraday strategies should prioritize bullish positions.
Over the weekend, the market was generally consolidating and narrow movement, with BTC maintaining a high range. This round of rally to the 655 level was pressured and then pulled back. At this stage, the low-volume rally is only a short-term rebound and not a trend reversal. Do not chase long positions at high levels.
Looking at the four-hour chart, the market is oscillating upward on the middle band of the moving average. Although the short-term market is relatively strong, resistance at the 655 level is obvious, and repeated rallies fail to break out, making it a typical bullish rally.
Intraday, position short positions based on the resistance range, with entry references at 651-656, and downside targets at 640-632.
$BTC #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? Today, Bitcoin was flat near 65,000, with the sell order wall at 65,200 still unabated.
On-chain CryptoQuant holdings data reveals a detail: mid-sized wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have net reduced holdings of about 43,000 BTC in the past 30 days.
During the same period, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC net increased holdings by about 28,000 BTC.
Mid-sized wallets are decreasing, while large wallets are ramping. Chips are concentrating from the middle layer to the top—this is a structural change happening.
In recent cycles, this pattern of "middle layer reducing holdings and top-tier accumulation" has usually appeared at price bottom areas. A similar structure appeared after the FTX collapse in 2022, and also after the pandemic crash in March 2020. It doesn't always reverse immediately, but the direction is clear—big money buys, small money sells.
At 65,000, the sell order wall is stacked thickly, but every time it drops, someone takes it. Some place orders to sell at 65,200, others buy at 64,800. Both sides are waiting for CPI data and the direction to come out $BTC