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$RE This surge of 22 points and a 5.96M turnover is definitely a tough challenge in today's stagnant market. According to OKX real-time data, at 3 a.m., this bullish candlestick suddenly rose and silenced the bears. I just finished chatting with a few market makers when I heard a rumor that the $RE team is going to do a brand upgrade AMA next week, reportedly planning to ride some modular public chain vehicle, most likely to get ahead of the pack. These days, whether news is really or not doesn't matter; what matters is whether you dare to follow. Looking at the two struggling stocks next to $XSOXL and $SLX, both fell over 11%, clearly draining liquidity. Aside from selling losses, robots are selling each other. Especially $CELR, the 9.9K transaction amount is less than the morning turnover from my downstairs pancake stall. With this depth, who would dare to get in? Even if you get between your teeth, you'll have to get scraped clean. The market always buys when no one is interested, and when the market is bustling with people. Now the market is like a street in the early morning—quiet and quiet, and you never know which corner is brewing the next fireworks. Guys, don't foolishly wait for the news to come out before reacting. By the time the whole internet knows, you'll be the one taking the blame. Let's drink this toast first. Tonight, let's see how much the $RE community can raise consensus. Storage plummets—don't rush to sentence AI to death 📉
Today's round was really fierce.
The market attributes the reasons to South Korea's deleveraging, US-Iran conflict, and risk aversion, but the earlier rally was too aggressive and profit-taking was too thick, which is why no one was willing to buy after the stampede.
However, a one-day crash is not enough to prove the end of the AI rally. AI servers still rely on HBM, and computing power expansion inevitably relies on storage. This industry logic hasn't disappeared just because stock prices have plunged.
I prefer to view this round of decline as a valuation drawdown and realization of unrealized gains. But "shakeout" isn't a cure-all; a lot of drops doesn't mean you can buy the bottom immediately.
Next, let's focus on three key points:
🔹 Can the stock price stop hitting new lows?
🔹Have HBM orders and gross margins been revised downward?
🔹 Is there real capital support during the rebound?
In the short term, avoid flying blades; wait for a stabilizing pattern to appear; In the medium to long term, it's not about buying every storage stock, focusing only on companies with strong enough technology, orders, and customers.
If orders haven't dropped and the technical advantage remains, this time it's more like clearing out unrealized profits; If earnings expectations start to be revised downward continuously, then stop comforting yourself with "shakeouts."
The market can panic, but positions cannot be carried by faith. 👀
Did you bottom-fish today, or should you continue to wait and see?
#SNDK #SKHYNIX #SAMSUNG Data as of: US stock market close on July 29, 2026; Crude oil and crypto assets updated to the afternoon of July 30, Beijing time. Market Overview: U.S. stocks have experienced a relatively complete cooling of highly valued assets. The S&P 500 fell 1.52%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.74%, and the Dow Jones declined 2.19%; $SPY, $QQQ, and $IWM fell by approximately 1.50%, 2.01%, and 1.63%, respectively. The RSP of the Equal-Weighted S&P ETF fell only 0.86%, indicating that the main pressure is concentrated in large tech and AI trades, but small-cap stocks and most industries are also under pressure, so it's not a single stock event. Semiconductor ETFs $SMH fell 4.84%, $NVDA Nvidia fell 3.36%, $AMD dropped 5.60%, $MU Micron fell 9.85%; Data center infrastructure company Vertiv fell 17.23%, while Eaton and GE Vernova dropped 6.31% and 4.56%, respectively. The sell-off has spread from chips to memory, power supply, cooling, and electrical equipment. Long-term US Treasury ETF TLT fell 1.63%, and high-yield bond ETF HYG fell only 0.23%. This is closer to rising interest rates and growth stock deleveraging, rather than credit market disorder. ——— Key News 1. The Fed held steady, but the meeting results were not dovish. The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The resolution passed with 9 votes in favor and 3 against, with three opponents advocating for a rate hikeMany people believe that with the entry of Wall Street and the government, $BTC's story is no longer sexy and beautiful. I think it's quite the opposite—now is the beginning of a new phase for Bitcoin: Bitcoin is being accepted, and in turn, "taking over" and changing the existing power structure.
🔄 The Law of History: Technology Shapes Power in Reverse
History never repeats itself, but it always rhymes. Power always thinks it is using new technology, but ultimately has to adjust itself according to its rules.
Printing: The church originally intended to use it to spread the Bible, but printing allowed ordinary people to gain knowledge, ultimately driving the Reformation and weakening its own authority.
Gunpowder: The nobility regarded it as an advanced weapon, but it lowered the threshold for war and gave rise to a centralized state.
Internet: Governments initially saw it as a propaganda tool, but social media reshaped information dissemination and changed the political landscape.
🧬 Bitcoin's "reverse takeover"
Today, Bitcoin seems to be being "absorbed" by the existing financial system: ETFs have been approved, Wall Street has heavily allocated, and countries are discussing including it in strategic reserves. But from another perspective, when the government and Wall Street began holding Bitcoin, were they truly controlling it, or were they accepting its rules?
Bitcoin's core rules (such as the 21 million total supply limit, transparent ledger, and irreversible transactions) cannot be unilaterally changed. When authorities embrace Bitcoin, they are essentially integrating into a new system they cannot fully control.
⏳ A victory on the scale of time
Bitcoin's operational goal is decades or even centuries, far beyond the timescale of any modern political system (such as a four-year presidential term) or corporate management. This difference in time scale is itself an advantage.
🎯 The real finale: redefining monetary sovereignty
Therefore, Bitcoin's final chapter may not be a complete replacement of fiat currency, but rather a gradual limitation of the unlimited expansion of monetary power. It may not eliminate monetary sovereignty, but it could redefine it.
The real question may not be "Will Bitcoin be taken over by the government?" "Rather, will the government quietly change Bitcoin itself during its takeover of Bitcoin?" ”。
Everyone thought Bitcoin had been surrendered, but the real story may only be beginning.📌 The KOSPI closed down 1.35% with SK Hynix plunging 5.6% and Samsung -0.7%, while the Nikkei 225 rose 0.71%. 📊 This cross-market divergence highlights a capital rotation from South Korea’s semiconductor-heavy index into Japan’s broader rally — a pattern that historically precedes shifts in crypto liquidity flows.
⚡ Smart money often uses these intermarket inefficiencies to reposition ahead of BTC’s next leg. If Korean risk-off deepens, watch for a liquidity sweep below recent Bitcoin support before the next institutional bid emerges. 💬 How do you read this divergence for your crypto positions? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #BTC #Macro #KOSPI #Nikkei #Crypto今日凌晨美联储 7 月 FOMC 会议宣布维持利率 3.50‑3.75% 区间不变，投票 9 票赞成维持、3 票支持加息，属于典型鹰派暂停，没有彻底关闭后续加息大门，直接搅动整个加密市场情绪。 决议刚公布的时候，BTC、ETH 短暂小幅冲高，市场本能解读为利率不变利好风险资产。但仔细读完会议声明与发布会讲话之后，行情快速冲高回落。市场意识到：虽然这次不加，但 9 月依旧保留加息可能性，通胀如果反弹，美联储敢于再次收紧货币政策，美元和美债收益率随之震荡走强，币圈多头不敢大胆进攻。$BTC 对币圈核心影响 1、宏观大逻辑没变：加密资产依旧属于高风险资产，只要加息预期还悬在头上，大级别单边牛市很难直接开启，行情更多以震荡反复为主，利好落地即是兑现，容易出现 “买预期，卖事实”。 BTC 短线冲高承压，反复测试下方支撑；ETH 走势依旧弱于大饼，ETH/BTC 比值继续承压，ETF 资金还没有出现持续性大额回流。 2、短期行情博弈点 接下来市场会紧盯美国通胀、就业数据。如果通胀再度反弹，9 月加息预期进一步升温，币圈会面临一轮抛压；如果通胀持续回落，加息预期降温，才会给加密市场打开反弹空间。$BTC 今晚PCE一出，又有人要卸软件了！！！
大饼现在卡在64000附近，上不去也砸不动，看着风平浪静，实际上多空都在等今晚这颗雷落地
北京时间今晚20:30，美国6月PCE和二季度GDP会同时公布，核心PCE年率市场预期从3.4%回落到3.3%，GDP预期大约在2.1%附近，这两个数据撞在一起，波动很难小得了
PCE低于预期，降息交易容易重新升温，大饼有机会借势冲击64500—64800，真正站稳后再看65000上方
数据重新超预期，市场会继续交易高利率，63500—63700这段支撑就要再次挨打，失守后63000—62600很容易被重新测试
从1小时来看，前面最低插到62660，随后快速拉回64500，说明下方承接不弱，可反弹量能没有持续放大，上方抛压也没有真正消失
现在价格正卡在区间中间，追多容易撞墙，追空又贴着支撑，两边都在等数据帮自己点火
今晚最容易出现的不是直接单边，而是先插一边扫止损，再反手走真正方向
别在数据前把仓位打满，今晚不是比谁胆子大，是看谁还能留在牌桌上
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 🔥#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue breaks 100 billion, while Meta's guidance disappoints—AI story diverges?
A tale of two extremes! Microsoft surged 10% after hours, Meta crashed—the AI story has completely split.
Brothers, last night after the US market closed, two major dramas unfolded simultaneously, with one ending in the sky and the other underground.
On Microsoft's side, a standing ovation.
Revenue reached $90.01 billion, up 18% year-over-year, far exceeding expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $4.74, 11.5% above forecasts.
What truly excited the market was Azure—quarterly growth of 43%, not only higher than last quarter's 40%, but also well above analysts' expected 39.6%, marking the fastest growth since early 2022. Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, becoming the second cloud service provider after AWS to hit this milestone.
AI products are also strong. Microsoft 365 Copilot paid users exceeded 30 million, up from 20 million last quarter, a quarterly surge of 10 million. Over 300,000 enterprise customers have purchased Copilot.
The most critical point was the capital expenditure guidance—FY2027 is expected at $175 billion, down $15 billion from the previous $190 billion. The market had been waiting for this signal for a long time, and the stock price surged 10% after hours.
Now looking at Meta, silence filled the room.
Revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. Advertising revenue was $59.36 billion, up 27%.
But profits collapsed—net income was $15.85 billion, down 14% year-over-year, far below the market expectation of $18.5 billion. Earnings per share were $6.18, compared to $7.14 the previous year. Costs and expenses surged 55% year-over-year to $42 billion.
What made the market even more desperate was the capital expenditure guidance floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion. Free cash flow plummeted from $8.55 billion last year to $784 million, a four-year low. The Q3 revenue guidance midpoint was $62.5 billion, below analysts' expectation of $63.2 billion.
The stock price plunged more than 10% after hours. Meta's stock has fallen for 10 consecutive days.
Why such a big difference in results on the same day, in the same industry?
The root lies in the business model. Microsoft has the Azure cloud platform, so AI investments can be directly monetized by selling cloud services to customers—no matter whose model is used, if it runs on Azure, Microsoft gets paid. Meta lacks its own cloud business, so AI investments can only be recouped by improving ad recommendation efficiency, which has a longer cycle and narrower path.
Zuckerberg said on the call, "We won't sell computing power for short-term profits," but the market clearly has little patience left.
One proves AI money can be made back; the other proves that just throwing money at it is far from enough.
The AI arms race has entered its third year, and the market is finally starting to do the math.
Brothers, do you think Meta's current situation is a temporary pain or a structural problem? Let's discuss in the comments 👇 #财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging?
When financial reports are released on the same day, the market reaction is completely different.
Microsoft surged after hours, with Azure cloud revenue up 43% year-on-year, surpassing $100 billion for the first time in the year. Copilot has 30 million paying users and $678 billion in orders on hand. Companies are truly spending money to buy.
Meta fell more than 10% in after-hours trading, but revenue rose 28% but profits declined, and free cash flow fell from $8.5 billion to less than $800 million, the lowest in four years. Zuckerberg plans to further increase his investment, with capital expenditures of 130 to 145 billion next year.
Both sides talk about AI, but their underlying logic is completely different.
Microsoft is doing "AI + existing business." It didn't create a new product on its own, but instead packed AI into Azure Cloud and Office, making users pay more. Enterprises already need to buy Office, and now with Copilot, they can easily renew their subscription. Azure's AI services are similar: enterprise customers call computing power on demand and pay for what is needed. This model works because the CIO sees efficiency improvements and is willing to invest budgets.
Meta is working on "AI transforming algorithms." Its AI currently does not have a standalone product; it is mainly used to make ad recommendations more accurate and short video retention higher. The problem is, this is hard to quantify—it's hard to clearly say how much of the revenue growth is thanks to AI and how much is normal traffic growth. Advertisers don't pay solely for AI; they only care about ROI. This makes Meta's massive capital expenditures difficult to justify with short-term revenue.
Which of the two models is more reliable?
In the short term, Microsoft is much more certain. It has a foundation built on enterprise payment habits; AI is the icing on the cake, not starting from scratch. Moreover, the 678 billion yuan order backlog means that more than half of the revenue for the next year or two has already been locked in, making it more resistant to risks.
Meta's problem lies in the "cost of trust." The market doesn't disbelieve AI can change advertising, but rather that investing 130 billion can yield equivalent returns. Especially when free cash flow is dropping so sharply, investors don't have the patience to wait two or three years. Zuckerberg said, "Selling hash power for short-term profits is short-sighted," and that's true, but the patience of the capital market is limited.
So how should I choose? My logic is divided into two layers:
The bottom is for Microsoft. The reason is simple: it has proven that AI can convert into revenue, and it is sustainable subscription income. Certainty comes first. I don't expect to make a fortune on this part, but I want stability.
Small positions for Meta are like buying a forward lottery ticket. The premise is that I don't feel bad about losing this money. Meta holds 3 billion daily active users, making it the world's largest attention pool. If one day it successfully runs AI assistants or AI social services, the potential for that will be much greater than Microsoft selling cloud services. But this matter may not be clear until 3-5 years, with countless fluctuations in between. If you can't hold on, then don't get involved.
To put it simply, Microsoft is making money now, while Meta is likely to make big money in the future. I bet on both sides, just the proportions are different.#Real Vision Founder: The long-term logic of the crypto industry has never collapsed
Raoul Pal's judgment: BTC is currently "running cool," but the long-term variables driving it have not disappeared.
On July 27, the Real Vision founder stated on X that according to his model, Bitcoin correlates 87% with global liquidity, while Nasdaq correlates with 97%. His explanation is that these assets mainly follow changes in available funds within the financial system, while weekly news and market sentiment mainly account for short-term fluctuations.
BTC's reaction was even more intense.
Pal describes it as an asset that is young, volatile, emotional, and still on the network's adoption curve. When liquidity improves, it tends to overheat; when tightening, it may fall even deeper. The current lukewarm performance does not mean the underlying mechanism has failed.
According to OKX spot market data, as of 14:30 Beijing time on July 30, BTC/USDT was trading at about 64,061.6 USDT, down about 0.5% in 24 hours. The range's highs and lows were about 64,751.6 and 63,261.6 USDT, respectively, with a trading volume of about 389 million USDT.
Prices remain fluctuating at low levels, matching Pal's description of "cold," but this brief rally cannot prove his long-term model is correct.
The liquidity framework has a realistic foundation. BTC lacks corporate earnings and dividends as traditional valuation anchors, making it more sensitive to changes in the US dollar, real interest rates, global money supply, leverage costs, and risk appetite. When funds are loose, assets lacking cash flow anchors usually gain greater valuation flexibility; When funds tighten, volatility is amplified.
The 87% figure here is worth considering.
Pal does not disclose underlying data, statistics windows, coin conversions, or leading-lag settings with the post. "Global liquidity" is not a single indicator; it can include variables such as global M2, central bank balance sheets, bank credit, dollar movements, and the U.S. Treasury's cash accounts. When the definition or lag period changes, the correlation may differ significantly.
Daily messages have not completely lost their effectiveness. ETF fund flows, regulatory changes, corporate treasury trading, stablecoin supply, leveraged liquidations, and trading platform events all determine through which channels liquidity enters or leaves the crypto market.
Macro funds provide tidal flows, and industry events determine how high the waves are.
Pal's long-term logic requires two pieces of evidence to hold simultaneously: global liquidity will eventually resume expansion, and BTC's institutional channels, on-chain usage, and holder base will continue to grow. Only the former, BTC is more like a highly volatile liquid asset; Using curves allows for continuity, giving long-term storytelling an extra layer of support.
"Nothing is broken" is not a bottom-of-the-line confirmation, but a model waiting to be validated.[Introduction to US Stocks 07] Everything You Need to Know About Microsoft with MSFT. Many friends have been asking me about my list of long-term dollar-cost averaging. In the following series, I will break down these holdings one by one.
More detailed real-time trading strategies, in-depth stock logic, industry chain reviews, and exchanges with partners in US stock investments worldwide. Explore trading strategies and refine your own U.S. stock strategy.
Today, let's focus on Microsoft.
In January, I observed a key signal: the stock price fell below the 200-day moving average. From a long-term perspective, this was a stage bottom range, so I decisively started regular investment in batches.
Before delving into Microsoft's logic, let's answer a frequently asked practical question: Can you distinguish between long-term bottom positions and short-term trades in the same brokerage account? The answer is no.
The safest way is to open multiple brokerage accounts separately, or use different identities to open accounts on the same platform, completely separating long- and short-term funds.
When the principal is only a few hundred thousand yuan, a single brokerage cannot detect hidden risks; Once account funds surpass the tens of millions of dollars, risk control awareness for diversified asset storage is essential.
In my understanding, Microsoft has long been an indispensable infrastructure for modern social work, holding the core chip of the 21st-century entertainment sector, with a clear investment logic.
In the productivity sector, Microsoft 365 and Copilot cover the vast majority of computer terminals worldwide; The entertainment segment continues to expand relying on the Xbox hardware and software ecosystem. Microsoft operates a world-class, top-tier backbone network, with total line lengths exceeding 500,000 miles, handling trillions of network requests daily.
The financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 further confirms Microsoft's irreplaceable position in the global market. Quarterly revenue rose 18.3% year-on-year, driven by explosive growth in AI business. Institutions estimate that AI annualized revenue for fiscal year 2026 could reach $37 billion. These are all real businesses that generate cash flow, not castles in the air.
Microsoft 365 Copilot surpassed 20 million paid seats, with new paying users surging 250% year-on-year; Cloud business revenue this quarter rose 29% year-on-year, accounting for two-thirds of total revenue. The scale of commercial surplus fulfillment orders nearly doubled, up 99%, totaling $627 billion.
Based on this impressive financial report, multiple institutions estimate that through fiscal year 2028, Microsoft's diluted earnings per share will maintain a 17% compound annual growth rate. It is also the only remaining tech giant in the world to still maintain the highest S&P AAA credit rating, with a highly resilient balance sheet.
Currently, the dividend yield is 0.9%, slightly below the S&P 500 average of 1.1%. However, its track record of dividend growth is impressive, with dividend increases for 21 consecutive years. The market expects the payout ratio to remain steady at 20% in fiscal year 2026, just one step away from the "dividend arios" rank. In the long term, maintaining an annual dividend growth rate of around 10% is highly feasible. Do not underestimate dividends below 1%. Consistently and steadily raising dividends is the most direct sign of a company's long-term stability in fundamentals.
As of May 28, Microsoft's stock price was $412, with a projected P/E ratio of 24.55 times over the next twelve months, which is significantly lower than its ten-year average of 29 times. I estimate the reasonable valuation midpoint to be about 28 times, based on a 17% expected EPS growth rate, which basically matches the company's 17.9% compound annual growth rate over the past decade.
In addition to stable dividends, Microsoft has been continuously buying back and reducing its outstanding shares. Dividends, buybacks, and steadily rising earnings per share—triple positive factors combined—will provide long-term and continuous shareholder rewards. Looking back at historical trends, during the profit growth phase, stock prices have risen in tandem, P/E ratios have remained relatively stable, and dividend income has risen in line with earnings, forming a positive cycle.
Because of this, Microsoft deserves a valuation higher than that of ordinary SaaS companies. A 24x forward P/E ratio is very cost-effective for today's market. Comparing horizontally, Google's 27.3x and Amazon's 30.5x make the valuation advantage clear.
Microsoft has long since completed its transformation, evolving from a traditional software company into a comprehensive platform combining cloud services + artificial intelligence + productivity tools. Azure remains the world's second-largest cloud service provider, with an operating margin steadily maintained at 45%-47%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 average.
Many companies are unwilling to build AI infrastructure from scratch, preferring to stack AI capabilities within the existing Microsoft ecosystem. Copilot's continued penetration is driving the M365 business upward and transforming AI from novel experiments into a necessity for enterprises.
In the long term, the two major trends of enterprise digitalization and intelligence are irreversible. The vast majority of companies need cloud infrastructure, productivity tools, and AI assistants. Microsoft is one of the few vendors on the market capable of providing a complete solution in one place.
In the short term, the optimistic scenario targets $650 for 2026 to the end of 2027. If revenue expansion continues to exceed expectations by year-end, the stock is expected to hold above $600.
Microsoft's long-term logic is solid, its AI cloud business moat is deep and cash flow ample, and its new AI growth engine is fully launched, enabling sustained compound growth through market cycles, combined with dividends and buybacks to continuously reward shareholders. It is not a speculative AI theme that only speculates on short-term surges, but rather a platform-based enterprise empowered by AI and possessing long-term vitality.
As the core asset of the account, as long as AI capital investment continues to deliver returns, there is huge growth potential over the next 5-10 years. The corresponding strategy is very simple: combine your own capital planning and gradually increase positions on pullbacks.
For more detailed entry positions and position allocation plans, stay tuned. That's all for today's sharing.
Risk warning: All content is solely a review of personal investment ideas and does not constitute any investment advice. The U.S. stock market is highly volatile; please make independent judgments and trade rationally.
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, Finance Minister apologizes for leveraged ETFs. When I saw this news, my first reaction wasn't that the Korean market had problems, but that any round of frenzy eventually leads to a game of regulation and capital tug-of-war.
When the market rises, leveraged ETFs amplify gains; But when the market begins to fluctuate sharply, it also amplifies panic.
Many people treat leverage as a money-making tool; I prefer to think of it as an emotional amplifier.
When prices rise, it makes investors feel they can do anything; When prices fall, they multiply the risk. Regulation intervenes not because of market fluctuations, but out of concern that leverage is starting to affect market stability.
The finance minister's public apology actually sends a signal: financial innovation can be encouraged, but someone must bear responsibility for uncontrolled risks.
This reminds me of a phenomenon in trading.
Many people believe that trends are driven by news, but what truly drives the market to extremes is often not the news, but leverage.
Once highly leveraged funds concentrate in the same direction, any unexpected event can trigger chain liquidations, causing prices to deviate from fundamentals and enter a liquidity-driven phase.
So in my view, leverage has never been the starting point of a trend, but rather an amplifier of a trend, and also the most dangerous catalyst when a trend ends.
That's also why I increasingly believe in one viewpoint:
What determines the height of a market move is expectations, while what determines the speed of the move is leverage.
Many times, a real market run ends not because the story is over, but because leverage has no new buyers, and the market begins to enter a deleveraging cycle.
So, rather than focusing on daily news, I care more about leverage ratios, position structure, and whether the market is starting to show consensus expectations.
What truly deserves caution is never a decline, but when everyone believes "it won't fall."The AI trade is quietly fracturing. Microsoft cut capex guidance and rallied 8.5% afterhours; the market is no longer rewarding raw spend, it is rewarding discipline. Meta's soft guidance got sold. The read that "more AI spend equals good" is breaking down, and what replaces it is more selective: execution over ambition.
Crypto is holding its ground with $BTC near $64K, but the macro setup is uncomfortable. Three Fed members are now openly pushing for a hike, and PCE data lands tonight after the rate decision. Positioning reads cautious rather than bearish, which means there is room for a sharp move if the Fed or the print surprises. Flat is not the same as settled.
NFA, just my read.
#OKXOrbitTopics #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
On the same night of earnings releases, Microsoft and Meta delivered starkly contrasting results, revealing the real divergence in the AI race: some companies quickly convert computing power investments into revenue, while others remain stuck in a high-investment, low-return dilemma.
Microsoft's fiscal 2026 Q4 total revenue reached $90.01 billion, up 18% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations across the board. The core highlight: Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, with quarterly cloud service revenue soaring 43% year-over-year, and growth momentum continuing to rise; leveraging OpenAI collaboration advantages, M365 Copilot paid users exceeded 30 million, with AI computing power orders and enterprise cloud demand continuously expanding. Even though capital expenditures surged 70% year-over-year this quarter, the cloud business's sustained high growth and strong order fulfillment prove that AI infrastructure investments have formed a stable commercialization loop, driving after-hours stock price gains.
In contrast, Meta's total revenue of $60.8 billion slightly beat expectations, but net profit fell 14% year-over-year, and next quarter's revenue guidance was significantly below institutional forecasts, causing after-hours stock to plunge nearly 8%. The company raised its full-year AI capital expenditure to $130-145 billion, continuing to ramp up self-developed computing power and metaverse business, yet lacks external cloud business to offset computing power costs. AI value relies solely on advertising efficiency gains, with a long conversion cycle and high investment continuously squeezing profits, leading to strong market skepticism about its AI return pace.
Both companies are heavily betting on AI, but their business models determine valuation trajectories. Microsoft holds the cloud foundation, selling computing power downward and pushing office AI tools upward, monetizing both ways; Meta only consumes computing power internally, lacking external revenue channels. The market no longer simply chases "throwing money at AI"; the core measure of an AI story's quality is whether computing power can be converted into sustainable revenue. $HYPE 现在就是典型的“协议在飞、币价在跪”的经典荒诞剧。
先说机构资金动向。表面上Hyperliquid风光无限：日成交动辄几十亿，HIP-3自定义市场贡献了六七成成交，手续费几乎全进Assistance Fund回购HYPE，听起来美得像印钞机。还有ETF呢？Bitwise、21Shares、Grayscale那几只HYPE现货ETF，5月刚上线时机构们可是蜂拥而入，累计净流入一度冲到3亿多美元，着实热闹了一阵。可最近呢？7月中旬开始ETF正式转红，连续流出，9周连续净流入的神话直接终结。大户更是露骨——Multicoin、Selini这类老牌把币往交易所搬，Hyperliquid Labs自己也解质押了两千多万美元的团队份额准备分发。一边是“机构长期看好、回购通缩”的叙事，一边是真金白银在出货、解锁在砸。聪明钱？更像是先享受了一波泡沫，然后趁着还有人信“基本面无敌”的时候，把筹码扔给还在抄底的散户。再看盘面，简直不用分析，一眼就是空头主导的下行通道。从7月中旬的69附近一路阴跌，高点不断下移：68、65、63、60、58，最近直接砸到53.085，现在勉强在53.8附近喘息。K线全是红色为主，反弹全是假动作，成交量在下跌时偶尔放量，上涨时萎靡得像没吃饭。MA缠绕向下，完全没有止跌结构。你说这是“健康回调”？健康个锤子，这是从高位派发完后的自由落体，中间夹杂着解锁恐慌和机构兑现。综合起来就是一句话：协议数据再漂亮，也救不了正在被持续抛售的币价。回购再多，也抵不过团队+VC+ETF的集体出货。现在的HYPE一边用高成交和回购给自己脸上贴金，一边用盘面实打实地教育所有还在喊“长期持有”的人——在加密世界，基本面经常是给接盘侠准备的安慰剂，真正决定价格的还是谁在卖、谁在买。继续幻想“低估值+回购=下一波暴涨”的，建议先看看这根从69砸到53的大阴线，再决定要不要继续当那个“坚定信仰者”。市场不会因为你觉得它该涨就涨，它只会用阴线告诉你，谁才是真正的韭菜。$BTC $ETH #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 📊 $CRCL Real-time full board analysis
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is currently priced at $61.36, with a 52-week range of $49.90–$193.33. USDC issuers are facing their toughest test since going public.
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📈 Support and resistance levels
Resistance above: First resistance is at 63-64 (recent rebound highs and gap areas). After a breakout, the target is 71-72 (mid-July rebound high, selling pressure is real). Core resistance is at 72-75 (with heavy trapped positions during the June crash) and 81-82 (50-day moving average and pivot resistance).
Support below: The first line of defense is at 60.55 (today's intraday low). Secondary support is at 58.68-59.18 (near the July 17 low area). Core support at 49.90 (52-week low and historical bottom) — if breached, it would point to Mizuho's $50 target.
The RSI stands at 42.27, in a neutral to slightly weak range, with the stock price well below the 50-day moving average of 79.56 and the 200-day moving average of 90.41, indicating a bearish medium-term trend. The short selling ratio reached as high as 10.90%.
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📊 Earnings guidance and Wall Street target price
Q2 2026 Financial Report (Pre-market release on August 5): Market expectation of $744.88 million in revenue (up 13.2% year-on-year), but EPS was only $0.18, a year-on-year plunge of 82.4%. The EPS forecast for the past 30 days has been revised down by 7.87%. Q1 actual revenue was $694 million, with EPS of $0.21.
Target price is highly diverged:
· Bernstein: $140 (down from 190, outperform rating maintained)
· Mizuho: $50 (underperformed the market, lowest on Wall Street)
· Wall Street Zone: $50-243
· Consensus target price: $118-131 (implying 93%-114% upside)
· Most of the 20 analysts gave a Buy rating
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✅ Positive factors
🔹 Acquired nearly 1,000 IBM blockchain patents, becoming the largest blockchain patent holder in the U.S., with a pre-market gain of 2.8%.
🔹 Approved for the OCC National Trust Bank license, USDC officially entered the federal banking regulatory framework, and institutional trust underwent a qualitative leap
🔹 Ark Invest continues to increase holdings, with "Sister Wood" buying 218,000 shares in a single day (about $13.7 million)
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❌ Bearish factors
🔻 Open USD alliance besieges: 140+ giants like Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock join forces to launch OUSD, targeting Circle's core market
🔻 USDC circulating supply continues to shrink: down about 7.4% from the March peak to $73.7 billion, directly eroding reserve revenue
🔻 Coinbase's distribution agreement renegotiated in August: Under the impact of OUSD, Coinbase may take the opportunity to demand better revenue sharing, eroding profitability
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🎯 Comprehensive assessment
$CRCL is at its most difficult point since its IPO—plunging more than 75% from its all-time high of $263. IBM's patent acquisition and OCC licensing form a long-term moat, but the OUSD alliance siege and USDC shrinkage pose real threats at hand. Whether the August 5 earnings EPS can hold at $0.18, management's statements about USDC's recovery, and progress on Coinbase's protocol renegotiations will be key catalysts. A short selling ratio of 10.9% means that if positive news exceeds expectations, the squeeze could be extremely severe; Conversely, if the earnings fall short of expectations, $50 is not out of reach. Strictly control positions under high volatility. $CRCL #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing a sharp drop in stock prices and sparking controversy #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Microsoft's earnings report is the biggest variable in this earnings season so far.
Revenue reached $90.01 billion, Azure cloud revenue grew 43%, and it surpassed $100 billion for the first time this fiscal year, all exceeding expectations. The most notable point is that Microsoft became the first major tech company to lower its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027. Against the backdrop of Meta's nearly 7% drop after hours due to increased spending, Microsoft spent less and earned more, rising about 8.5% after hours.
Microsoft's counter-trend reduction in capital expenditure shows that the AI narrative is diverging into reality. Previously, when Alphabet and Meta raised capital expenditures, the market's first reaction was to sell off, fearing disproportionate returns on investment. Microsoft's earnings report offers a different path: continuous growth in cloud business with a decline in capital expenditure expectations. This contrast is important; if other tech companies' earnings reports can also demonstrate a return path on AI investments like Microsoft, market confidence in the AI narrative may be rebuilt.
This earnings season, the AI concept is shifting from "who invests more" to "who profits first," and market pricing logic is already changing. Microsoft's 8.5% after-hours rise indicates the market's approval of the combination of "controlled spending + performance growth."
For the crypto market, the divergence in the AI narrative will also indirectly affect the sentiment of related assets, but the core contradiction remains the macro environment. The Federal Reserve's FOMC just concluded, with three dissenting votes against rate hikes and hawkish remarks from Waller, plus tonight's PCE data, the macro direction remains the main factor influencing BTC and ETH trends.
$MSFT $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? If you only look at the headline, you might feel that these two companies have delivered completely different answers.
Microsoft delivered impressive data: Azure continues to grow, cloud business annual revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time, and AI is beginning to truly contribute business value.
Meta, on the other hand, has sparked capital divisions because its future earnings guidance falls short of market expectations.
But in my view, this is not the beginning of the AI story fragmentation; rather, the market is entering a new phase.
In the past two years, the capital market has been willing to pay for "storytelling," and as long as companies announce increased AI investments, valuations have room to rise.
But now, the market is no longer satisfied with just "investing in AI," but is asking three questions:
How much money has AI actually made? Has profit margin improved? Will future cash flow be realized?
Microsoft attracted funding not just because cloud revenue surpassed $100 billion, but because it proved one thing:
AI is gradually shifting from a cost center to a profit center.
In contrast, Meta is not rejecting its AI strategy, but rather reassessing whether its future growth pace is sufficient to support current valuations.
This is something I've been thinking about lately.
Many people think the market is trading earnings reports, but I believe the market is truly trading the speed of future expected changes.
A company grows by 30%, and if the market expects it to fall by 40%, prices may still fall; Another company grew 20%, but the market only expected 10%, so prices would actually surge sharply.
So, what determines stock price is not performance, but the difference between performance and expectations.
That's why I increasingly believe one saying:
Candlesticks are not the result of news, but rather the result of market expectations being repriced.
I remain relatively optimistic about the AI sector.
I believe this is not the end of the AI narrative, but rather the industry is entering a stage where business models and profitability are truly being tested. Future capital will not flow evenly to all AI companies, but will increasingly concentrate on those that can consistently deliver on performance and form a closed cash flow loop.
AI's story doesn't end there; it's just moving from "believing in the future" to "verifying the future." The real market may just be beginning.U.S. stocks fell quite heavily today, but I don't think it can be simply interpreted as "the end of the bull market."
This drop feels more like three resistance lines falling simultaneously.
First, AI trading continues to cool down.
The continued pressure on AI and chip chains like $NVDA, $AMD, $MU shows that the market is not distrusting AI, but rather unwilling to unconditionally offer high valuations. Previously, the rise was due to "AI demand imagination," and now the decline is due to "AI return verification pressure."
Second, oil prices suddenly surged.
Brent crude surged above $88, raising concerns in the market about a resurgence in inflation. Once oil prices rise, expectations for Fed rate cuts will be suppressed, making it harder for tech stock valuations to sustain.
Third, the Fed has not given the market the certainty it wants.
The Fed continues to hold rates steady, but the market is more concerned about whether tightening will continue going forward. In a high interest rate environment, $QQQ growth stocks are most likely to be repriced.
So today, I will interpret it this way:
This is not just a simple plunge, but the market reordering risk assets.
$SPY Decline indicates a cooling of overall risk appetite; $QQQ Weaker, indicating that big tech and AI trading are still decrowding; On the other hand, $XOM energy stocks may regain attention because rising oil prices could alter the sector's structure.
My personal judgment is that the AI main storyline isn't over yet, but it's already entering a more difficult stage. In the past, the market bought imaginative space; now, the market looks at three things: profit, cash flow, and return on capital expenditure.
Next, focus on the financial reports of $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, and $AAPL. If big tech can prove that AI investment is turning into revenue, tech stocks still have a chance to recover; If the process continues to be just "burning cash to expand capital expenditures," then $QQQ may have to keep digesting it.$ETH The current operating logic is more like a "value revaluation game" after narrative overdraft, rather than the establishment of new trends. The market appears to have found support at key levels, but the underlying momentum behind this support does not come from substantial improvements in ecosystem fundamentals, but rather from a technical pause by bears following the continued weakness of the ETH/BTC exchange rate. This rebound, driven by price comparison repairs, is essentially a drain of the market's last patience for Ethereum's narrative, creating conditions for deeper structural corrections. From the microstructure of the derivatives market, the skew (Skew) of the ETH options market has quietly shifted to a bullish tilt, with implied volatility showing an inverted pattern of near high and far low. This means short-term speculative funds are betting on the rebound to continue, but the distortion in the term structure exposes the contradiction—persistently low far-month volatility indicates institutional funds remain cautious about medium- to long-term trends. Historical patterns show that when the options market experiences a split of "near-month frenzy and distant month indifference," it often corresponds to a peak in sentiment at a stage. More importantly, spot ETF funds have not resonated with the market. Since the product launched, there has been a net outflow, indicating that traditional allocation funds do not regard ETH as a core asset on par with BTC. This rebound lacks the strongest buying foundation. This "options hot, ETFs cold" pattern makes it difficult for ETH to break out of a strong rally independent of BTC. The main players understand this well, and are best at creating the illusion of volatility during narrative vacuum periods—first exploiting the market's perception of "staking rewards" and "L2 ecosystems."The Bank of England may hold steady for the fifth consecutive time: the shadow of inflation lingers, and the path to rate cuts remains uncertain
The market currently expects the Bank of England to continue keeping interest rates unchanged, marking the fifth consecutive time policy stability has been maintained. Against the backdrop of major central banks gradually entering an "observation period," the Bank of England's biggest challenge is not economic growth, but whether inflationary pressures are truly under control.
Compared to the US, the UK's inflation decline is not steady, with service sector prices, wage growth, and energy costs still supporting prices. Therefore, even if economic growth comes under pressure, the Bank of England cannot easily and quickly switch to easing policies.
1. Why is the Bank of England hesitant to cut rates quickly?
The current UK economy is at a rather contradictory stage:
On one hand:
High interest rates continue to suppress consumption;
Rising mortgage costs;
Companies' willingness to invest declined;
Economic growth is under pressure.
On the other hand:
Wage growth remains relatively high;
Inflation in the service sector is sticky;
Inflation risks have not completely disappeared.
This means the Bank of England needs to:
Controlling inflation
And
Avoid excessive economic slowdown
Seeking balance between them.
If rates are cut too early, it could lead to a rebound in inflation; If high interest rates remain high for too long, it may further drag down the economy.
2. The Impact of Bank of England Policy on Global Markets
Although the UK economy cannot compare to the US, policy changes from the Bank of England still affect the global funding environment.
If the UK continues to maintain high interest rates:
Possible consequences include:
The pound remains relatively strong;
The pace of global liquidity release is slowing;
Risk assets are under short-term pressure.
For stocks and the crypto market, high interest rates mean the cost of capital remains high.
Especially risk assets like BTC and ETH typically require a more relaxed liquidity environment to gain stronger upward momentum.
3. Impact on the crypto market: Focus on global liquidity, not a single central bank
The market is currently entering an important phase:
The Fed is paying attention to the timing of rate cuts;
The Bank of England is focused on inflationary pressures;
The European Central Bank is focused on economic recovery.
Global central bank policies are gradually diverging.
For the crypto market, what truly matters is:
Whether global dollar liquidity has improved.
Because currently, the Bitcoin market is mainly driven by dollar capital.
If in the future:
✅ The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates
✅ Major central banks around the world have simultaneously shifted to easing
✅ ETF funds continue to flow in
Risk assets may face a stronger rally.
4. Possible future market trends
Scenario 1: Inflation continues to decline
If UK inflation improves further:
The Bank of England may begin signaling interest rate cuts.
Impact:
Pressure on the pound is declining;
Improved global liquidity;
The probability of risk assets rising increases.
Scenario 2: Inflation rebounds again
If wages and service prices continue to rise:
The Bank of England is likely to continue maintaining high interest rates.
Impact:
Market expectations for rate cuts have declined;
Short-term adjustment of risk assets;
Volatility in the crypto market has increased.
5. Combining BTC and ETF funding logic
The current crypto market has entered an institution-led phase.
Future BTC trends to watch:
1. Global interest rate cycle
Lower interest rates → increased liquidity → risk assets benefited.
2. ETF capital flows
Sustained net ETF inflows:
This represents the continued allocation of institutional funds.
Continued ETF outflows:
This indicates a decline in market risk appetite.
3. Trends in the US Dollar Index
A weaker US dollar usually benefits assets like BTC.
Summary
The Bank of England has kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, indicating that global central banks are still in a "waiting for confirmation" phase.
What the market is truly waiting for isn't a single meeting, but rather:
Whether inflation has completely declined and whether global liquidity has reopened.
For the crypto market:
In the short term, the high interest rate environment may still affect the market, resulting in volatility;
But in the medium to long term, if major central banks gradually enter rate-cutting cycles and ETF funding continues to increase, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market still have a chance to usher in a new upward cycle.
Keywords for the next stage:
Inflation, interest rate cuts, liquidity, ETF capital flows.
(The above content is market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.) ）
#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? #微软逆势下调资本开支, the stock rose 8.5% in after-hours #银行业联名施压, and the CLARITY stablecoin clause may be regenerative #btc#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
Many people, upon seeing Microsoft cut capital expenditures, first react by asking: Is AI investment cooling down?
But the market's answer is quite the opposite — after-hours stock price once rose over 8%.
Why?
Because the market never trades on isolated data, but on whether the data is better than expected.
Over the past year, the market has been worried that AI giants would fall into an "infinite money-burning" cycle: capital expenditures keep rising, but the return cycle gets longer. If this concern persists, even strong revenue growth could be overshadowed by high spending.
The signal Microsoft sent this time is a different logic:
AI business is still growing rapidly, but capital investment is becoming more restrained, meaning future profitability is expected to improve further.
In my view, this is more important than simply continuing to increase capital expenditures.
Many investors easily fall into a misconception: thinking that the more you invest, the better.
But what the capital market truly likes is investment that can convert into profit, not investment for the sake of investment.
This has always been my trading philosophy:
The market does not reward all good news, only good news that exceeds expectations; nor does it punish all bad news, only bad news that exceeds expectations.
Therefore, news is just the surface; what truly drives prices is how capital revises future expectations.
Many times, while we are still analyzing the news, capital has already made its choice through the candlestick chart.
Regarding Microsoft's after-hours rise this time, do you think it is trading on an excellent earnings report, or trading on new expectations that AI commercialization is entering the realization phase? #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
Although the Fed ultimately kept rates unchanged last night, what truly deserves market attention is not the "no rate hike," but rather the widening divide in voting.
Three voting committee members have publicly advocated for a tighter policy stance, indicating that concerns about inflation within the Fed still exist and that the future policy path has not become more relaxed just because of a single pause.
Tonight's release of the US June core PCE is likely to become the anchor for the next phase of market expectations.
If PCE continues to fall, the market may resume trading "inflation under control," giving risk assets some breathing room; However, if the data rebounds beyond expectations, the recent hawkish voices may further strengthen market expectations for further policy tightening.
For trading, I increasingly feel that what truly affects the market is not the data itself, but whether the data exceeds market expectations.
Even a 0.1% change means that if the market had already priced in the price, it might not have driven the market; What truly changes trends are often the information that forces capital to reprice.
So tonight, what I focus on more is not the forecast data, but the first reaction of funds after the data is released.
Often, candlesticks are more honest than news, and funds tend to make choices earlier than market sentiment.
Do you think tonight's PCE will once again confirm the cooling of inflation, or will it become a new catalyst for rising hawkish expectations?$BTC US missile suspected of striking the heart of Iran's oil refinery!
The footage from the scene pointed to Abadan in the southwest.
A new round of U.S. retaliation against Iran has begun!
However, whether the refinery was directly attacked remains unconfirmed.
Once energy infrastructure is hit, oil prices could spiral out of control instantly!
Videos circulating online show missile strikes near Abadan in Iran's Khuzestan province. The U.S. Central Command has confirmed a new round of large-scale airstrikes against Iran, calling it a "strong response" to attacks on U.S. forces; Reuters and the Associated Press also confirmed explosions in Khuzestan province, but the specific targets have not been officially disclosed.
The most critical suspense right now is whether the missile hit the Abadan refinery, nearby military facilities, or other targets. Previously, the U.S. mainly struck command centers, missiles, drones, and maritime military capabilities; If this is the first direct contact with Iran's energy infrastructure, the logic of war will be completely changed.
When the bombing hits a military base, the market trades the risk of escalation.
When the refinery was bombed, the market traded was the energy war.$NVDA $XNVDA Fundamentals remain unchanged, but the stock price continues to test its bottoms 🥲
As of July 30, 2026, NVIDIA (NVDA) market performance and analysis are as follows:
1. Recent price performance
Latest stock price: As of the close on July 29, 2026, NVIDIA's stock price was $190.01.
One-day volatility: On July 29, the stock price fell by about 3.55%.
Monthly Trend: In July, NVIDIA's stock price showed a volatile downward trend, fluctuating from around $197 at the start of the month to the current $190 level.
2. Market sentiment and reasons for the decline
Investors have recently shown a cautious attitude toward NVIDIA, putting pressure on the stock price. The main reasons include:
"Circular Deals" Concerns: Recent reports mention OpenAI's deals, sparking market concerns. Investors worry about possible "circular deals" similar to the internet bubble era, where companies provide funds to customers to purchase their own products, raising doubts about revenue quality.
AI Bubble Concerns: Despite strong demand for AI infrastructure and NVIDIA's dominant position in the field, the market has begun to reassess the valuation of AI-related stocks after two years of surges. Investors remain cautious about whether the AI boom can continue to bring long-term profits!
Market Profit-Taking: After a long period of strong gains, some investors choose to take profits when market volatility intensifies, further intensifying selling pressure!
3. Fundamentals and Outlook
AI Infrastructure Leader: Despite stock price fluctuations, NVIDIA maintains a solid position in the AI data center market. According to data for 2026, its data center business contributes over 90% of revenue, and AI computing demand continues to grow.
Analyst Views: Some analysts believe the current selling pressure is more due to excessive market concerns and emotional adjustments regarding cyclical trading, rather than the structural deterioration in AI demand itself. Currently, the market remains optimistic that NVIDIA will maintain its leading position in the global trillion-dollar AI infrastructure market From a 30% account shrink to an unrealized loss of over 40%, watching the $SNDK in my position slide from 1500 to 1090, I endured almost every day. That anxiety is like a dull knife cutting flesh—every time you open the app, you expect a rebound, but all you get is a lower price. Last night, I couldn't sleep again. Staring at the candlestick chart at 3 a.m., I suddenly asked myself: If I don't have any positions right now, would I buy at this price? The answer is clear—I will, because the 1090 is nearly 300 points cheaper than my cost. The fundamentals haven't changed, just the whole market is cutting valuations. So since I personally believe this is a position worth betting, why cut losses in despair? After figuring this out, I felt completely at ease. I canceled the stop-loss order and deleted the timed market watch alarm. The current $SNDK only needs time. Whether it's the regulatory boots coming in South Korea or the overall market liquidity rebounding, as long as we weather this period of extreme sentiment, prices will recover sooner or later. I used to torment myself between "whether to cut losses" and "whether to add to my position," but now I finally understand that when deep floating losses have occurred, the fooliest thing to do is to repeatedly switch strategies. Instead of being dominated by panic every day, it's better to admit that you bought too early, got stuck, and then closed your account and waited half a year. This week, $BTC dropped to 64,000, $ETH dropped to 1,900, the whole market is bleeding, and I'm not the only one losing. But history has repeatedly shown that such moments of collective despair often occur near turning points. I did the math: if $SNDK goes back to 1200, I willIII. Expert Verdict: How Should You View Grass?
表格
Dimension
Rating
Explanation
Narrative Heat
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
AI + DePIN + Solana — the three hottest narratives stacked together
Token Economics
⭐⭐
Extremely hostile to miners; massive unlock sell pressure; no burn mechanism
Legal Risk
⭐⭐⭐
Short-term precedent is favorable, but the moat is weak
Real Revenue
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Claims $33M, but token holders don't see a cent
Miner Returns
⭐
Your 20 million points = 1.3 USDC says it all
My Advice to You:
1.
Stop pouring in more resources. Electricity, time, and hardware costs all far exceed your returns.
2.
If you still hold tokens, watch the price around the July 22 unlock. There is usually a wave of "anticipation hype" before the unlock; after it, the price will most likely keep falling.
3.
Keep an eye on that "revenue-sharing governance vote." If token holders actually start receiving USDC, the project might have a future. If it's just another pie-in-the-sky promise, GRASS is yet another "infrastructure-grade vaporware token."
Your Season 2 experience already says everything: in Grass's economic model, miners are the fuel, not the passengers.$GRASS #美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain?
Micron dropped nearly 11% in a single day, and some people are starting to call for a bottom. I think it's ridiculous, this is just the beginning, and the mountain peak hasn't even come down yet.
This round of storage prices has been rising for too long and too fiercely. Micron has risen so much earlier, HBM prices have multiplied several times, gross margins have risen above 70%, and the whole sector is telling stories at high levels. Now it's starting to fall. It's not about the end of the decline; it's the logic loosening.
Changxin's IPO was the first signal: China's capacity officially entered, and the number of companies became three and a half. From now on, it's no longer up to you two. Micron itself is still telling the story of HBM demand, but no matter how strong the demand is, supply is starting to loosen. Samsung is expanding, SK Hynix is expanding, Changxin is expanding too. Once capacity is rampant, no one can guarantee how long prices will last.
Another signal is Microsoft's cut in capital expenditure, signaling that big companies are starting to step back. Microsoft has started to take control, and other cloud providers will sooner or later follow suit. AI demand is indeed there, but growth may not keep pace with capacity release; the biggest concern is the early arrival of supply-demand inflection points.
Too much leveraged capital entered the market earlier, and much of Micron's recent rally was driven up by leverage. Now that the decline is starting, leveraged funds are stepping out and the exit is just beginning. The real bottom is when no one is paying attention, not the time when someone is calling for a dip after only a 10% drop.
It's still too early to say the bottom is here. Next up are the lifting of restricted shares, Changxin's expansion pace, and the possibility of a price war between Samsung and SK Hynix. It's not even halfway up, still at the peak. If you want to buy the bottom, wait a bit longer.
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading
#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? " 🌐 In-depth observation of the current market structure:
The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates + AI capex from tech giants, leading to a decline in risk appetite.
Clear internal layers within the crypto:
BTC, as a 'digital gold' asset, has stronger volatility than most altcoins
ETH has relatively resisted declines supported by ETFs and staking yields
Small and mid-cap coins are experiencing liquidity exhaustion, with stronger narrative-driven characteristics
What is truly worth monitoring is whether funds are shifting from pure speculation to protocols with cash flow or genuine adoption.
The oscillation period is a good time to observe structural changes. #加密结构 #宏观"Microsoft is also betting on AI, and Microsoft has already started collecting money. Is Meta still waiting for answers? With this wave of AI, the market is gradually seeing one issue: the AI story is huge, but in the end, it's all about who can truly make money back. Microsoft's latest financial report gives a relatively strong answer. Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with cloud business revenue at $59.3 billion, up 27% year-on-year, and Azure up 43%, with full-year Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion. Simply put, Microsoft is not just talking about AI concepts, but directly selling AI infrastructure and tools. Enterprises buying Azure computing power and Copilot office assistants are real sources of income. Currently, Copilot has over 30 million paying users, and there is still a large amount of enterprise demand waiting to be released. But on the other hand, Meta's situation is not so easy. Although Q2 revenue reached $60.8 billion, a 28% year-on-year increase, and the advertising business remains strong, the market is focused on its upcoming investments. For AI infrastructure, Meta expects capital expenditure this year to reach $130-145 billion, with free cash flow also under significant pressure. The problem is: Microsoft's AI has entered the stage of "selling products to make money," while Meta mainly uses AI to optimize ad recommendations and improve user experience. True AI commercialization products still need time to prove. So now, what the market is seeing is not who is betting on AI, but who turns AI into profits faster. Of course, that's it本轮加密市场很难出现大幅拉涨，核心源于四大基本面利空逻辑支撑：
一、美联储会议政策偏鹰，加息预期仍在
昨日美联储会议出现2016年以来最多的三次反对票，市场整体加息预期依旧强烈。同时美联储释放表态，引导市场不要过度聚焦单一CPI数据，仅小幅平衡了市场预期，并未扭转内部偏紧的政策基调，加息的潜在预期依然稳固，对风险资产形成压制。
二、纳指、存储板块与加密货币行情脱钩，资金存在回流分流迹象
本轮纳斯达克回调、存储板块大幅暴跌过程中，加密市场并未同步跟跌。这也意味着后续行情反转时逻辑同样成立：一旦纳斯达克、存储板块开启反弹上涨，加密货币大概率不会同步跟涨。市场资金会重新回流存储赛道，加密市场将走出独立偏弱行情，承压下行。
三、美债十年期收益率居高不下，压制加密风险资产估值
当前美债10年期收益率持续处于高位，其效果虽没有直接加息恶劣，但本质逻辑一致。高收益的美债属于稳定无风险资产，能够提供可观的固定收益。在这种环境下，市场资金会优先选择稳健资产，大幅降低股票、加密货币这类高风险资产的配置意愿。相较于美股主流标的，加密资产当前表现偏弱、性价比更低，进一步被资金抛弃。
四、中东地缘局势反复，行情对冲效应即将失效
目前美国与伊朗的地缘冲突持续，短期无法彻底缓和、解决。此前地缘冲突阶段，加密货币并未出现大幅下跌，核心是利空与利多相互对冲：美股、存储板块深度回调，部分避险资金、ETF配置资金短暂流入加密市场，托底行情。但后续如果地缘局势进一步恶化，叠加美股存储板块回暖、资金回流，原有对冲逻辑会彻底消失，加密市场将单独承受下行压力。
整体行情结论与交易操作策略
综合四大基本面，当前加密市场很难走出大幅拉涨行情。
操作上，若行情出现反弹上涨，无需恐慌，持仓空单坚定持有、减仓续拿，严格按照既定点位执行交易。
1. 比特币：66000以上布局的空单，建议以周线级别持仓，保守目标看向61000。
2. 以太坊：1950–1960区间、2000上方布局的空单，同样周线级别持有，保守止盈区间看1720-1820。3. Expert Summary: How Should You View Grass?
Table
Dimension
Rating
Explanation
Narrative Heat
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
AI + DePIN + Solana, the three hottest sectors combined
Token Economics
⭐⭐
Very unfriendly to miners, large unlocking pressure, no burn
Legal Risk
⭐⭐⭐
Short-term rulings favorable, but moat is weak
Real Income
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Claims $33 million, but holders get nothing
Miner Revenue
⭐
Your 20 million points = 1.3 USDC, says it all
Advice for you:
1.
Do not add more investment—electricity, time, and hardware costs far exceed returns
2.
If you still hold tokens, watch the price around July 22 unlock—usually there is a wave of "expectation speculation" before unlock, and prices likely continue to fall after
3.
Watch the "income sharing governance vote"—if token holders can really get USDC, the project still has hope; if it’s just empty promises, GRASS is just another "infrastructure air coin"
Your experience in Q2 says it all: in Grass’s economic model, miners are fuel, not passengers.
$GRASS U.S. stocks plunged late at night, with the Nasdaq falling 😱 for the sixth consecutive day
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
Overnight close (July 29, 16:00 Eastern Time):
· Dow Jones: 51,594.14, plunged 1,153.18 points (-2.19%), marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025
· Nasdaq: 24,442.94, down 433.97 points (-1.74%), marking the sixth consecutive day of decline
· S&P 500: 7,316.15, down 112.63 points (-1.52%)
· Philadelphia Semiconductor: plunged 5.33% to 10,447.49, 5 consecutive days of decline, cumulative drop nearly 16%
The Nasdaq 100 has dropped more than 11% from its June high, officially entering a correction phase.
The Seven Tech Giants Collapse 💀 Across the Board:
· Nvidia $NVDA: down 3.55%, trading at $190.01
· Tesla: Down nearly 3%
· Amazon: Down nearly 2%
· Meta: Down over 1%
· Microsoft and Apple followed the decline, with Google alone rising nearly 1%
Chip/storage stocks are bleeding 💀 like a river:
· Micron Technology $MU: plunged 9.94%, closing at $739
· SanDisk (SNDK) $SNDK: down 7.32%, quoted at $1,015.89
· ARM: down 8.11%
· AMD: down 5.51%
· Intel: Down over 5%
· TSMC: Down over 4%
· SK Hynix ADR: down 2.60%
Chinese concept stocks surged 🇨🇳 against the trend: the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.73%, New Oriental gained over 15%.$ETHW LONG
Entry zone: 0.2290–0.2305
Stop loss: 0.2260
TP1: 0.2327
TP2: 0.2355
TP3: 0.2390
Reason: ETHW has formed a strong staircase recovery from 0.2162, supported by rising volume and bullish MA alignment. Price is now testing MA120 and local liquidity at 0.2327.
My approach: I’d buy the 0.229 support retest, not the high. Take partial profit before the higher MA resistance band. Not financial advice.
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal In the early session, Ethereum's small swing closed smoothly, firmly securing the 25-point mark. The market trend aligns with predictions, with small swings accumulating over time. Frequent solo trading is prone to errors. If you want to follow your entry rhythm, feel free to discuss anytime. #Institutions Increase Positions Against the Trend: SharpLink Increases Holdings by Nearly 40,000 ETH Micron really had a tough time this time, going from 1255 all the way to 727, and was cut in half!
$MU It's now 727, but today it's dropped nearly 10%. This drop isn't just overnight—July saw a drop of over 40%, down from the June high of 1255, down 40% in nearly two months
There are three core reasons for this drop:
First, SK Hynix's earnings fell short of expectations, dragging down the entire storage sector. Although SK Hynix's earnings hit a record high, they fell short of Wall Street's most optimistic expectations, causing the market to crash. South Korea plunged 10%, and Micron suffered in the US market
Second, Changxin Memory's IPO raised market concerns about Chinese companies entering the market. On July 27, Changxin was listed on the STAR Market, soaring 465% on its first day and raising 66.6 billion yuan, marking the largest IPO in STAR Market history. Although Changxin mainly focuses on DRAM and Micron uses DRAM + NAND, the market fears China will first conquer DRAM, followed by NAND, and the entire storage sector will be revalued
Third, expectations of Fed rate hikes are heating up, and high-valuation tech stocks are the first to be cut. Although the Fed is holding steady, the probability of a rate hike in September has already surged to 57%, and Wash even declared yesterday that "we will raise rates without hesitation if necessary." When interest rates rise, tech stock valuations have to be recalculated, and Micron, which rose the most earlier and fell the hardest
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
On the market: all moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MA7 734, MA25 769, MA99 859, all above the head. Short-term support is at 706; if broken, it could move to 680-700. If there is a rebound, 750-770 is the resistance level; if it can't be broken, it will continue to move downward
Don't rush to bottom-fish. Wait until the market stabilizes, and before semiconductor sentiment recovers, buy and get stuck each time. What you really want to do: light positions to bet on a rebound, stop loss below 706, target around 750
But honestly, with this kind of market, watching more and moving less is the safest approach
#美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? $SNDK #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
To get straight to the conclusion: I bet the Fed will not raise rates in September. Tonight's PCE data will most likely show a mild decline. The current market panic is somewhat premature.
Here are two solid reasons I value most:
First, Bank of America previously compiled data showing that from 1994 until now, whenever the market's priced-in probability of a rate hike was below 60%, the Fed never actually raised rates. Currently, CME tools show just over a 30% chance of a September hike. Powell has always been a "follow the market" type and won't suddenly break a 30-year precedent with a surprise attack.
Second, the three dissenting votes this time look significant but are more like a hawkish statement rather than an actual move. If they were truly determined to hike, the FOMC would have done it directly this time, no need to wait. Right now, it's just verbal pressure on inflation expectations to prevent the market from being overly optimistic and causing chaotic rises. "The start of policy adjustment" does not equal "the start of rate hikes."
Back to the market: after the decision, the Dow dropped two points, but crypto held steady, indicating the negative news has mostly been priced in. If the rate hike expectation was solid, BTC would have already broken below previous lows, not holding at this level.
My own approach is practical: I’ve reduced all contracts to light positions, left spot holdings unchanged, and won’t open random trades before tonight’s data. Data nights often have sharp spikes up and down; even if you guess the direction right, you might get shaken out midway. No need to take that risk. I’ll wait for the data to settle and the direction to emerge before following up. Missing a few points is fine; stability is most important.
Finally, don’t be scared by the "three votes for a rate hike" headline. Trading is about actual moves, not talk. As long as tonight’s PCE doesn’t surge beyond expectations, the rate hike issue will likely remain just talk.
What do you think—will tonight’s PCE exceed expectations?
$BTC $ETH " 📊 Fed + Big Tech Earnings Dual Interpretation:
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with some insiders advocating for rate hikes and maintaining a cautious attitude.
During the same period, Google Cloud surged 82% but raised its Capex rating, Tesla hit a record high in revenue but missed profits, and Meta's cash flow dropped sharply.
The market shifted from chasing AI to questioning whether 'burning cash will yield returns.'
Result: Tech stocks pulled back, Bitcoin fluctuated around 64k, and risk appetite declined.
In the short term, continuing to observe and controlling positions is more important. What do you think about the market outlook? #美联储 #财报解读"$BTC 8H
So far, my view of the market has not changed.
After the Fed meeting, the prerequisites for a medium-term correction remain.
Technically, at the beginning of the new month, I expect a local liquidity move over the nearest shorts, after which I consider the beginning of a new wave of decline.
If BTC rises to the range of $65500 – $67296, I will look for a short-term short position.
The main downside targets are $61297, $59555 and $58280.
#NewHereStartHere #OKXTraderVoices Earnings reports and Federal Reserve decisions are almost synchronized, creating double pressure:
Company
Revenue performance
Key issues
Market reaction
Alphabet (Google)
+24%，Cloud +82%
Capex sharply raised its forecast to $195-205 billion, turning free cash flow negative
The stock price declined, sparking concerns about AI spending money
Tesla
+26%, a record high in deliveries
Profits missed significantly, operating profit declined, and FCF turned negative
Stock price plunges over 10%
Microsoft
+18%, Azure is strong
Relatively stable, AI implementation is more solid
It has shown relatively resilience to declines
Meta
+28%, user growth
Free cash flow plunged about 91%, with Capex continuing to be raised
Profits fell short of expectations, putting pressure on the stock price
apple
Expectations remain solid
Capital expenditures were relatively restrained
Its market capitalization has returned to the top spot globally, making it a tech stock seen as a safe-haven tech
Core Conflict:
Strong growth in revenue and cloud/AI business proves the real demand; However, massive capital expenditures have led to cash flow pressures, and the market has begun to question the "input-output ratio" and the return cycle.$DEGEN LONG
Entry zone: 0.001270–0.001282
Stop loss: 0.001245
TP1: 0.001303
TP2: 0.001335
TP3: 0.001359
Reason: DEGEN reclaimed the entire short-term average cluster with expanding volume. Price is holding above 0.001275 support, while MA500 and the previous wick form the next liquidity targets.
My approach: Meme volatility can sweep both sides. I’d keep size small and protect the trade immediately after TP1. Not financial advice.
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE becomes a new highlight. Maintaining high interest rates this time was already within market expectations. What truly affected the market was Powell's hawkish speech, clearly stating that inflation still hasn't reached the target and raising interest rates again, which directly limited Bitcoin's rebound. The positive news did not lead to a big rally, which is a typical case of "buying expectations, selling facts."
Key Locations (Clear at a Glance)
Support position
Short-term lifeline: $63,000-$63,300. Today is a bottoming low; only a break below will open upside downside.
Medium-term strong support: $62,500 and $60,000 round number levels, the bottom and center of this round of rebound.
Pressure level
Short-term first resistance: $64,800-$65,300, a tightly trapped zone in the short term;
Key medium-term resistance: $66,000 and $68,500; holding above 68,500 will confirm a rebound.
#DailyOrbit The Fed meeting was held in the early morning, with rates unchanged. The market had hoped for clearer easing signals, but Walsh's message was not as dovish. The Fed still emphasizes that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared, and policy will not give the market a preemptive answer; future updates will depend on economic data changes.
From a trader's perspective, this kind of news isn't a major short-term bearish, but for risk assets that have seen significant gains before, it does bring some pressure.
On the US side, especially in the AI sector, a large part of the past rise was driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and improved liquidity. If the market finds that the pace of rate cuts is not as fast as expected, high-valuation tech stocks may face a round of volatile adjustments.
The recent performance of the storage sector has already signaled that AI hardware-related companies like SK Hynix and SanDisk have been pulling back continuously, essentially reflecting capital reevaluating valuations rather than simply hyping up AI stories.
Back to the crypto market, I personally think the impact will be even more pronounced.
BTC, a large-cap asset, is more resilient to pressure, but ETH and altcoins rely more on market liquidity. Once U.S. Treasury yields rise, the dollar remains strong, risk money withdraws, and altcoins are often sold off first.
However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic here; the Fed is not currently re-entering a rate hike cycle but is maintaining a wait-and-see approach. What truly determines the market's direction going forward will be CPI, employment data, and whether inflation continues to cool.
So my short-term approach is very simple:
Don't blindly chase short sellers just because of a single meeting, and don't fantasize about a major bull market starting immediately. It now feels more like a phase where the market is rediscovering its direction.
If subsequent data continues to support rate cut expectations, AI, US stocks, and crypto markets still have the chance to strengthen again; However, if inflation fluctuates, this round of overvalued assets may continue to come under pressure.
Currently, I lean more toward caution in the short term, waiting for the market to give a real direction.
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is the new highlight $BTC $ETH $SOL SpaceX's crash was just right—it took military money and dirtied the business world
SpaceX secured a $1.6 billion military contract, but its stock price fell below its IPO price, dropping from 225 to 135, a drawdown of nearly 50%.
Many people don't understand why the huge orders have actually plummeted. The logic is simple: you're a commercial aerospace company, relying on global customers to pay for it. Now that you're deeply tied to the US military, who would dare to cooperate with you? Russia doesn't dare, China doesn't dare, Europe has to think twice, and the Middle East is even more so—it's got military money and has dirty business life.
29% of the outstanding shares were shorted, and in August, the restricted shares were lifted. The Air Force has made its cards clear—they're just bearish. It's not because SpaceX's technology is weak, but because its valuation logic has changed. Previously, it was Starry Sea, now it's military contractors. Starry Sea can offer a 100x PE, but contractors only get 10x PE.
Tesla is the same—whenever Musk gets too involved in politics, its stock price drops for you. The market prefers the Musk who built rockets and electric cars, not the Musk who signed contracts with the Pentagon.
A good company doesn't equal a good stock; no matter how deep the moat, valuation logic can't withstand being hammered hard. Once commercial aerospace is labeled as military-industrial, international orders fade, expansion stops, and the story can't continue. The crash isn't unreasonable; it's the market repricing its identity. The stock price will only recover if it can tear off the military label and prove it is still the company serving all humanity.
#SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps 从夯到拉锐评今天四家巨头财报
- Meta $META ：拉完了
营收608亿美元，同比增长28%不及预期，运营利润同比下降8%，自由现金流跌至近四年最低，仅剩7.84亿美元，较去年同期85.49亿美元大幅缩水
- 微软 $MSFT ：顶级
营收900亿美元，同比增长18%超预期，Azure及其他云服务增长约43%。AI基础设施投入持续，但云与AI业务强劲支撑整体表现
- 泛林 $LRCX ：夯
营收67.2亿美元，同比增长约30%，环比+15%，创纪录
非GAAP摊薄EPS 1.82美元（超预期），GAAP约1.81美元；非GAAP毛利率52.0%，营业利润率38.4%（均改善并创纪录）
- 三星电子：夯爆了
合并营收约171.5万亿韩元（约合1170多亿美元），同比增长约130%，环比+28%，创单季新高 营业利润约89.5万亿韩元（约合620亿美元），同比增长约1814%，环比+56%，亦创纪录；
三星发布财报之后韩国KOSPI盘中涨幅扩大至5%，目前回落到 +1.17%
炒股第一要义：仓位控制
这周一直在抄底，希望这是止跌信号，不然还得抄～Green candles mean liquidity is coming: Why can't most altcoins follow despite the market looking strong on the surface? On the surface, the market appears bullish, but this is not a typical rally where all assets rise together. Liquidity is not evenly distributed across the entire market but is selectively concentrated in certain assets. The key signal is that open interest is decreasing while trading volume remains stable. This indicates that traders have shifted their strategy from indiscriminate chasing buys to cautious, segmented buying. Funds are rotating through a few names while the rest of the assets quietly experience outflows. This flow is clearly revealed through cross-market transmission. BTC acts as the anchor of liquidity and determines the overall market direction, ETH serves as the center of institutional demand, and SOL maintains the strongest position among L1s, reflecting risk appetite. Among altcoins, DATA representing AI infrastructure, WLD combining AI and identity, and the risk appetite indicator Alphabet (Google) Q2 earnings report
Revenue: $119.8 billion (+24%), exceeding expectations.
Highlights: Google Cloud surged **82%** to $24.8 billion, showing strong AI demand.
Key issue: The full-year capital expenditure guidance was sharply raised to $195-205 billion, with quarterly Capex about $45 billion, and free cash flow turning negative.
Market reaction: After the earnings report, the stock price fell, dragging down the entire technology sector and raising concerns about "AI burning cash."🚨SK Hynix plunges 14%, Korean stock market circuit breaker! Tom Lee: The AI bubble will eventually come, but definitely not now
$SKHY
The AI semiconductor sector has experienced its most intense adjustment so far this year. On July 29, SK Hynix plunged about 14% intraday, and South Korea's KOSPI index dropped more than 10% and triggered circuit breakers, quickly spreading panic across the global AI semiconductor and storage sectors.
Just as the market fears the AI market is peaking, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and a long-term bullish on tech stocks, offered a completely different view in his latest podcast: this crash is more like forced deleveraging driven by liquidity and leverage, rather than a turning point in AI fundamentals.
In recent quarters, leveraged ETF funds around popular stocks like SK Hynix have rapidly expanded, boosting stock prices during price increases, but triggering forced liquidation when pullbacks occur, creating a negative feedback loop. Although this adjustment followed the earnings release, the real magnification of the decline was the concentrated clearing of leveraged funds, not the report itself.
Tom Lee emphasized that no one can precisely bottom-fish. Waiting until all indicators have turned positive before entering often means buying back at higher levels. The real test is never finding the lowest point, but whether you can stick to long-term judgment during the most pessimistic market moments—money is earned by holding, not by frequent trading.
Regarding the widely discussed 4.5x expected P/E ratio, he reminded that the storage industry is highly cyclical, and when profits are highest, the P/E ratio is often lowest, because stock prices reflect future expectations. What really matters is not how low the current PE is, but whether future earnings forecasts can continue to be revised upward.
He pointed out that the biggest current risk lies in order authenticity: the AI industry chain is lengthy, and concerns about price increases at end demand may trigger repeated orders and excessive stockpiling downstream. If real demand cannot keep pace with order growth, the industry may face inventory adjustments—which is the hardest part of each storage cycle to judge.
Regarding the AI bubble, Tom Lee does not deny that it will eventually appear, but believes that it is far from that point now. He cites Cisco as an example: from 1993 to 2000, its stock price rose about 100 times cumulatively, with at least four drawdowns exceeding 40%. Each time, the market thought the bull market was over, but the real peak only appeared when valuations approached 200 times PE and demand forecasts were seriously out of sight. He believes the AI industry is currently more like the mid to early stages of an internet bull market, with capital expenditure and profitability still expanding, and this round of adjustment is more like normal fluctuations in a bull market.
It is worth noting that Tom Lee's GRNY ETF does not heavily invest in semiconductor hardware, but instead favors large tech companies, AI software firms, and crypto assets. In this round of corrections, it also outperformed most funds heavily invested in semiconductors.
He believes the market should only answer two questions: Is global AI capital spending declining? Is the real demand for HBM, GPUs, and AI servers slowing down? As long as the answer remains no, this round of adjustment is merely deleveraging at the capital level, not a reversal of industry trends. Latest Crypto ETF Data Analysis (BTC ETF + ETH ETF)
According to the latest market data, ETF funding is currently showing divergent trends: Bitcoin ETFs are under short-term pressure, while Ethereum ETFs are relatively stronger. Uncertainty following the Fed's rate decision has led institutional funds into a wait-and-see phase. (The Economic Times)
1. Latest Situation on Bitcoin Spot ETFs
BTC ETF Funding:
Current market performance:
There is short-term pressure on capital outflows
ETF fund flows have become more volatile
There has been no large-scale evacuation from the institutions
Recent data shows that Bitcoin ETFs experienced continuous inflows, such as net inflows on some trading days, but then large-scale single-day outflows. (Suoso Value)
The biggest sources of recent market pressure:
The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates
A high interest rate environment reduces institutions' willingness to allocate risk assets.
US dollar liquidity remains relatively tight
ETF buying requires new capital inflows, and if dollar funds are not clearly released, BTC's upward pace will be limited.
Profit-taking orders are being realized
After the previous rise, some institutions chose to reduce their positions.
2. Latest updates on ETH ETFs
Compared to BTC, ETH ETFs have recently performed more aggressively.
Data shows:
Ethereum ETFs have recently seen renewed capital inflows;
Net capital inflows increased significantly during certain cycles;
Institutions remain interested in the long-term value of the ETH ecosystem (Layer 2, DeFi, asset tokenization). (Bitcoin Foundation)
The biggest advantage of ETH ETFs right now:
✅ Valuations are lower compared to BTC
✅ More ecosystem applications
✅ The proportion of institutional allocations is increasing
However, in the short term, it is still influenced by overall market risk appetite.
3. Market signals revealed by ETF funds
Current ETF data explains:
It's not the end of the bull market, but a rebalancing of funds
If we observe three indicators:
(1) Net inflows into ETFs
Currently:
Short-term → volatility
Medium-term → still has institutional demand
As long as ETFs do not sustain large-scale net outflows, the market structure remains intact.
(2) BTC price divergence from ETF
Key Focus:
If:
BTC declined
But ETFs stopped flowing out and even started flowing in
Explanation:
Institutions may be absorbing the chips released by retail investors.
This is a typical bottom signal.
(3) ETH capital strengthening
If ETH ETFs maintain net inflows, it may indicate that market funds are starting to shift from:
BTC → ETH → high-quality altcoins
Gradually spreading.
4. Forecast for the next 1-3 months of market trends
Strong trend:
Conditions:
✅ The Federal Reserve has signaled a rate cut
✅ ETFs have seen consecutive net inflows
✅ The US dollar index weakened
Possible:
BTC is once again testing previous highs
ETH has caught up in the rally
Altcoins are starting to get active
Neutral trend (currently more probable)
Expected:
BTC：
Consolidating and oscillating, waiting for macro signals.
ETH：
Stronger than BTC, offering opportunities for capital rotation.
Knockoffs:
Continued differentiation, with only projects with real applications and financial backing rising in value.
Risk Trends:
If:
❌ ETFs saw large outflows for several consecutive days
❌ The Fed remains hawkish
❌ U.S. stock risk asset adjustment
Possible:
BTC is undergoing a 10%-20% phase correction.
My judgment:
Currently, ETF data does not show "big money flights," but rather a short-term repricing phase following the Fed meeting.
Key points to watch for the future market:
Will BTC ETFs resume continuous net inflows + Will ETH ETFs continue to absorb funds?
If both indicators strengthen simultaneously, the next rally may be driven by institutional funds rather than retail speculation.
The current market stage is more likely:
Short-term volatility → waiting for liquidity improvement → institutions re-invoking → new trends to begin
(The above is market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.) ）
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE becomes a new highlight. #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt #SpaceX获$1.6 billion US military contract, stock price plunge, sparking controversy between two camps On the chessboard, Microsoft made a move that shocked the entire audience—it didn’t continue to aggressively escalate the AI arms race but instead proactively retreated by cutting its FY2027 capital expenditure guidance. Before the market could even swallow its fear, this spear reversed direction and accurately pierced the opponent’s flank: Meta dropped 7%, while Microsoft itself rose 8.5%. This was not a sign of weakness but the classic "sacrifice for a stronger transformation" in chess—you give up a knight just to create a passed pawn first in the midgame battle.
Let me tell you, the real money makers don’t just play one move at a time; they have already calculated the position twenty moves ahead before placing a piece. Microsoft’s Q4 revenue hit 90 billion, Azure grew 43%, and the annual revenue crossed the 100 billion mark—these figures are just the pawn formations on the board. The real killer move is hidden in that phrase "cutting capital expenditure." What is AI spending like? It’s like a rook in the midgame—it charges forward, crushing everything in its path, but if you put all your resources on the same rook, once your opponent trades off your rook, your king’s wing is left with only a lone commander. What Microsoft is doing now is proactively simplifying the position within its area of advantage—sacrificing a bit of firepower over the next two years in exchange for strategic maneuverability.
XIBM’s players, you must understand the deep meaning of this move: while all opponents are desperately increasing their AI computing power, Microsoft has already calculated the king and pawn endgame. It’s not about who has more rooks; it’s about whose king is safer and whose passed pawn advances faster. Cutting capital expenditure by 70%? That’s voluntarily entering a multi-pawn endgame after trading pieces—you lose a bishop but gain a time advantage.
On the chessboard, the most dangerous moment is often not when you’re in check but when the opponent suddenly slows down. When Microsoft pulls back its fist, what you should consider is that every piece it saves in the midgame will become a lethal strike in the endgame. The game is not over; the time for castling has already arrived. #MSFTCutsCapex