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Don't rush to call it a surge; the real trigger is here
This week, two forces are pulling the crypto market in opposite directions: on one side, the CLARITY Act faces a procedural vote in the Senate, needing to pass the 60-vote threshold by September 15; on the other, the Federal Reserve's rate decision, with the market having largely priced in a 25 basis point hike. Though seemingly contradictory, they may actually resonate.
If CLARITY passes, the biggest change won't be immediate legalization, but that US crypto regulation shifts from "guessing policy" to "rules-based predictability." BTC will depend on whether capital dares to re-enter, while ETH could surge more because compliance expectations will amplify DeFi's on-chain financial valuation potential.
The real scare from rate hikes isn't this one, but whether more will follow. As long as there are no more hawkish surprises, volatility might instead become fuel.
My view: CLARITY passing procedural hurdles + rate hikes not exceeding expectations will move BTC and ETH first, with capital then spreading to ZEC and altcoins. The second phase of frenzy is what really needs caution. The bill sets expectations, interest rates bring volatility, both landing the same week—this could fully ignite the market. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 Don't tell me the bull has run away, I just want to see the sideways market kill off all the leverage gamblers now.
This time, my discipline is going to pay off! Haha
$BTC is repeatedly testing the gate between 79,000 and 81,000, $ETH is repeatedly stabbing just above 2,500, SOL is jumping around near 100, and no one in the market is talking about candlesticks anymore; the group chats are all about sending food delivery red envelopes and AI startup BPs.
But I think this volume-shrinking to suffocation movement precisely indicates that selling pressure is about to dry up. After all, the real bottom is never called out by good news but is forged by grinding people into silence and endurance. Interestingly, stablecoins on-chain are quietly increasing issuance, indicating the main force just hasn't found the starting gun.
Right now, the real signals are hidden in three places: short-term groups turning into dead groups, contract rates dropping to zero, and veteran retail investors starting to play dead.
But once BTC breaks out with volume above 72,000, and the ETH/BTC rate stops falling and rebounds, then things get interesting.
Patience begins to collapse, shorts start hesitating, yet the price can't fall further.
I still dare to look at $ETH 3800, SOL 200
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Xingran 9.15 Midday Gold 4-Hour Market Analysis
On the 4-hour level, the high point is 4434, with highs gradually moving lower, maintaining an overall oscillating downward structure. After testing the previous low at 4253, there was a slight rebound. The current quote is 4290, with weak rebound strength and no obvious reversal of the bearish trend.
This morning, the clear strategy given was: "Short positions can be arranged when the rebound faces resistance near 4317, with a stop loss above 4382, and the initial target at 4253; if broken, continue to look lower." The market rebounded to near 4317 and then fell as expected, allowing short positions to enter smoothly. The current price has fallen from near 4317 to 4290, capturing nearly 25 points of space. The bearish logic continues to be validated, and the approach has been precisely fulfilled.
Strategy Reference
Resistance: 4317, 4344, 4389
Support: 4253
Entry: Attempt short near resistance at 4317 on rebound, stop loss above 4344, first target 4253, continue lower if broken effectively.
Summary
High points are gradually moving lower, rebound strength is weak, overall maintaining an oscillating downward trend. 4253 is a key support; breaking below it will open further downside space. Resistance at 4317 on rebound is a high short opportunity with strict stop loss.
$XAU #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 #沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周 The storage trio took a hit again—has AI really peaked?
Last night, the storage sector took another dip.
Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix all pulled back together, and at first glance, the market looked pretty intimidating. Especially after such a strong rally, this sudden collective plunge easily makes people start to doubt: is this the end of the AI wave?
But I don't think it's time to draw that conclusion yet.
The real core of this storage rally is still the demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND driven by AI. The current issue seems more like—stock prices have already priced in very optimistic expectations, and capital is starting to trade ahead on whether it can stay this good in the future.
So, I actually think these three will look very promising going forward.
For Micron, it depends on whether their earnings report and guidance can dispel the market's biggest worries;
For Hynix, it depends on whether HBM orders and profit expectations continue to hold up;
SanDisk is the most interesting, with the greatest volatility—when it rises, it’s sharp, and when it falls, it’s really steep.
So for now, I’m not in a hurry to call an AI downturn.
If it’s just a sell-off on expectations, after the drop, capital will most likely come back to the most resilient ones; if even the fundamentals start to weaken, then that’s when you really need to be cautious.
Right now, it all comes down to one thing:
Which of these three can reclaim their lost ground first.
Whoever recovers first might reveal whether capital still believes in this sector.
$SKHY $SNDK $MU
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 Continuing to hold this short position on $AAOI, currently with about 1.29x profit. The average entry price is 102.87, now the price has been pushed down to around 96.2. This move is not about guessing the top; the core reason is the continuous weakening of the four-hour structure.
Since dropping from the high of 108.82, both highs and lows have been steadily moving lower, and the rebounds have never managed to reclaim the short- to mid-term moving averages. The price is still below MA5, MA10, and MA20, the bearish alignment remains intact, and MACD is still below the zero line. From a trend perspective, I remain bearish.
However, the 96.1–95 range has entered a short-term support zone, and KDJ is also at a low level. Chasing shorts further down is not cost-effective. I continue to protect profits on my old short position. As long as the rebound stays below 98.5–101, the bearish logic holds; only if it truly breaks back above 102.8 will I reassess. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $DOGE has been criticized as air for five years, yet it has lasted the longest
Newcomers entering the circle get their first lesson: don't touch Dogecoin, it's an old relic.
The data looks like this: 1-minute block time, transaction fees of a few cents, Reddit tips actually use it.
Even more absurd is that it merged mines with $LTC, freeloading on hash power to ensure security without burning much electricity itself.
Where's the risk: no cap, a fixed annual increase of 5.26 billion coins, holders only get diluted.
But it hasn't died in 12 years, with 8 million addresses, the only meme that needs no explanation.
I've held its position and criticized it, but it has never gone to zero. What about those new dogs in your hands?
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 $DOGE $LTC BTC 1H oscillates until FOMC
Large oscillation range
Yesterday rebounded from the bottom to the middle of the range
Basically matches the second target 80K range
Then quickly dropped A
Very typical characteristics of an oscillating market
Next, mainly watch whether the 77K range stops falling and rebounds
Expected to oscillate between 77K-79K in the short term before breaking through
In terms of trading, lower expectations
Only trade at key positions An address that receives rsETH is then frozen for 24 hours, with the freeze limited only to the wallet, not affecting the protocol contract or reserves. This is all that Kelp can do.
For outsiders, the key here is not who is suspicious, but who has the authority to press pause. rsETH is a staking certificate; a stuck transfer means the holder cannot exit that day nor prove their innocence on-chain.
A more likely explanation is that the team is buying time to gather on-chain evidence rather than confirming a loss. There is no direct evidence for this step yet.
Watch whether the address is unfrozen after 24 hours and if rsETH liquidity is restored. If unfrozen with no further disclosures, it indicates this was just a precautionary measure.
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $ZEC $BTC 24 days, 840K coins, $52.6B leverage — big move coming? BTC $77,880 — 5.5% range for 24 days 840K spot exchanged here Seller risk 7 bps = yearly low Spot selling exhausted FOMC + CLARITY = breakout window extreme Derivatives resonance: OI $52.6B Calls 61% 25-Delta skew positive first time in 1 year Far from cycle top profit-taking Battle: $82K above = $1.95B shorts stacked $75K-76K below = dense longs Whales accumulating vs extreme leverage Any macro news = liquidity sweep After compression$NES This long position has now gained over 1.4 times in floating profit. My entry average price for this trade was around 0.1479, and the current price has pushed up to 0.1592. This gain comes from the four-hour structure turning strong again.
After pulling up from around 0.1350 earlier, although there was a retracement midway, the lows have been steadily rising. Now the price has climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, with all three moving averages starting to turn upward, indicating that the short-term initiative still favors the bulls. MACD has returned to the strong zone, but the only caution is that KDJ is already high, so chasing the rally further is not cost-effective.
I am focusing on the previous high resistance between 0.160 and 0.167; only a breakout there will allow further acceleration. On the downside, as long as 0.150 to 0.153 holds, the bullish structure remains intact for now. Continue holding old positions to protect profits, but avoid aggressively chasing new entries. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Day 156: -2% = win today
ZEC 1040 → 1224 → 1166
Deep V, 17% range
My levels:
1225.48 = wall
1131.28 = defense
No volume over 1225 = trap
Break 1131 = over
Didn't chase. Saved capital.
140U → 24815 CNY
ATH 33000 CNY
Patience > trades
#ZECFlowsVsLiquidation $BTC $ZEC $UP The stop loss I nervously removed last night, looking at it today, seems like it saved my life.
Yesterday afternoon, UP had a strong bull trap vibe; every surge was just short of a breath, and volume didn't keep up. I was signaling on UP at the time: if no one supports the rise, lean bearish.
Shorted at 0.3755, current price 0.3420, +89.74%, feeling good brothers. This wave was worth the wait, timing was right, time to take this bite of meat.
Take profits on 80% first, keep 20% at cost price as protection. If it keeps dropping, let the profits run, don’t be greedy for the last bit.
Have a strategy before market opens, discipline during trading, and reflection after. Better to miss a limit-up than catch a flying knife and bleed. Now is not the time to rush; chasing shorts risks a rebound slap, wait for the next shot.
$ETH $SNDK $UNI's monthly trading volume dwarfs competitors by several times, is the next wave targeting $7.2?
OKX market shows $UNI surging to $6.68, rising nearly 5.11% intraday.
The market anomaly breaks the downtrend stalemate but is more catalyzed by fundamental changes.
On-chain data shows Uniswap's dominant moat:
Monthly trading volume surpasses $70 billion, exceeding the combined total of the next three DEXs.
V4 Hook has cumulatively processed over $38 billion.
The newly launched StablePair Hook more precisely targets the $43.4 billion quarterly stablecoin swap market, protecting LPs through Dutch auction dynamic revenue sharing, fully activating the flywheel positive feedback.
Even facing selling pressure triggered by 0x's doubts about V4 Hook's security (due to many malicious Hooks exploiting V4's architecture for "yin-yang quote settlement siphoning"), the founder quickly responded, strongly supporting the official aggregation API.
Chip battles have entered a white-hot phase.
Arthur Hayes scooped up over $2.24 million to build a position of 323,000 UNI; even with a paper loss of nearly $300,000, he still added buys against the trend.
Shorts leveraging the technical turmoil to dump chips are being swallowed up by top smart money.
Practical strategy:
Resistance above lies in the $7.0-$7.2 range, a dense chip zone at previous highs and giant whale cost lines, likely triggering profit-taking and shakeout.
Core support below is at the $6.3-$6.4 range; holding this establishes a bottoming structure.
Likewise, avoid blind FOMO chasing highs; for higher win rates, generally wait for a sharp drop to stabilize before acting. 眼下，市场对美联储9月议息会议加息的预期已经高度收敛，无论是CME FedWatch还是Polymarket等预测市场，都给出了极高的加息概率。在这样的宏观背景下，如果还有人质疑加息的必然性，甚至抛出“加息预期已走完”、“加不加息都利好”这种自相矛盾的观点，显然是脱离了当前的宏观现实与加密市场的深层逻辑。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 回顾ETH近期的走势，从6月底1550美元左右的低谷一路拉升至2600美元上方，涨幅超过69%。这轮反弹恰恰是在加息预期不断升温的过程中完成的。市场并非对加息视而不见，而是在提前定价“预防性加息”的可能。正如部分券商研报指出的，如果美联储最终加息25个基点，且点阵图暗示年内仅再加息一次，这更像是一次“保险式加息”，而非开启新一轮紧缩周期。在这种情况下，加息落地反而可能成为利空出尽的节点，为后续风险资产的修复打开空间。 反过来看，如果美联储在如此高的加息预期下突然按兵不动，市场绝对会将其视为重大意外。这不仅会引发剧烈的流动性重定价，更会严重冲击美联储的政策公信力。就像布鲁金斯学会学者韦塞尔说的那样，如果美联储主席屈服于政治压力而放弃加息，将被视为对独立性的$CASHCAT This short position continues to profit, entered around 0.1705, currently floating profit has reached +173.60%. The most comfortable aspect of this kind of trade is not catching a big bearish candle, but that the entire four-hour structure has been cooperating.
Now the price is pressed around 0.1556, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all forming resistance above. The rebound has never been able to reclaim the short-term moving averages, indicating that the bulls' recovery strength is still weak. Although it dipped to 0.1438 earlier and then rebounded, it looks more like a breath after overselling rather than a direct reversal.
Next, I will focus on the 0.1508 level; breaking below it could lead to testing previous lows again. On the upside, watch 0.158–0.160 first, then 0.1647. The old short position continues to protect profits, not chasing lows, waiting for a rebound to provide an entry point. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $PONS in 24 hours +18.42% versus BTC -0.20% — difference +18.62 p.p.
With a position of 70% within the daily range, the question is simple: is this real relative strength or is the movement already fading?$MET This short position finally made a profit, entered around 0.2279, and now it's up +175.51%. This time I didn't try to guess the top; the key was observing the weakening four-hour rebound, with the price continuously suppressed by the short- and mid-term moving averages. After breaking below, there was basically no decent recovery.
Now the price has reached around 0.208, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all still pressing from above, and MACD continuing to stay in the weak zone, so the overall structure is still dominated by bears for the time being.
However, I won't chase shorts here anymore. The previous low at 0.2062 is very close, and KDJ is also pressed down to a low level, so a technical rebound could happen at any time. The old short position continues to protect profits, with resistance above first seen at 0.214–0.218. As long as it doesn't close back above, this round of weak structure is not over yet. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 140U Challenge 10,000U | Day 156 Initial: 140 USDT Now: 24,815.68 CNY Today: -509.03 (-2.00%) ATH: 33,000 CNY Best time to adjust rhythm, not chase $ZEC | 1166.91 Resistance: 1225.48 Support: 1131.28 Deep V today: 1040 → 1224 → 1166 Vol >10%, sentiment flipping every hour Above MA, bullish warming but 1225 heavy pressure No volume above 1225 = just oversold bounce Break 1131 = rebound over, back to range No impulsive entries. Waiting for pullback + clear structure Market never lacks opportunitieThe afternoon rotation continues to look for a breakthrough. Who will lead the acceleration first: BTC, FET, or NEAR?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
BTC still determines the overall risk ceiling of funds. Currently, the more important question is whether the lows can continue to rise during the consolidation process. As long as $BTC's pullback does not show significant volume expansion, it indicates that active selling pressure remains limited; if volume supports a breakout of recent resistance, risk appetite is likely to further open up. Conversely, if rallies are repeatedly pushed back, the consolidation approach should continue.
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
FET relies more on the concentration of funds in the AI direction, and its elasticity at the start is usually significantly higher than mainstream tokens. Now, the focus for $FET is whether volume can continuously expand. If volume does not decrease after breaking resistance and the pullback holds the breakout level, it indicates that the funds are not just short-term impulses, making further acceleration likely; if volume shrinks quickly after the rise, beware of profit-taking on the rally.
NEAR currently leans more towards chip structure game theory; continuous rising lows indicate that low-level selling is decreasing. If $NEAR's price moves up while volume gradually increases, the sustainability after the breakout will be stronger; otherwise, if the price surges sharply without active buying support, it is easy to return to the original consolidation range.
Looking ahead, watch for three signals upward: BTC breakout, FET volume expansion, and NEAR rising lows; downward, watch whether BTC's structure loosens first and which of FET or NEAR falls back into consolidation first. What truly matters now is not the instant gains but who can continue to absorb selling pressure above after breaking out.5% just became crypto’s most expensive number.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since October 2023, while Brent trades near $107 and markets lean heavily toward a Fed hike Wednesday.
When “risk-free” money pays 5%, capital has to fight harder for every dollar. Crypto’s next battle may be happening in the bond market, not on-chain.
Image suggestion — separate: U.S. Treasury/bond-yield chart showing the 10-year crossing 5%, from today’s coverage
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek What is the typical psychological trap of FOMO missers?
The most awkward right now is a group of BTC FOMO missers:
They are afraid BTC will keep rising, yet also hope it crashes. If it really falls below 60,000, most probably they still won’t dare to buy the dip: afraid it will keep falling at 50,000, afraid of a deep bear market at 40,000.
What they are always waiting for is certainty, rather than a low price. But the most expensive thing in the market is precisely certainty.
They don’t dare to chase the rise, don’t dare to catch the fall, and in the end can only watch. This is the psychological trap of FOMO missers. I'm actually not in a hurry to celebrate this trade now. The short position on $SKHYNIX has already gained +175.11%, but the price has also been pressed down to the 1234—1245 range. Chasing shorts further down is starting to lose cost-effectiveness.
I shorted around 1290.61, mainly because the four-hour rebound has consistently been capped below the moving averages. Currently, MA5, MA10, and MA20 still show a bearish alignment, and the price hasn't reclaimed the 1252—1262 range, indicating that this downtrend structure hasn't truly reversed.
However, KDJ has already dropped to a relatively low level, and after continuous selling pressure, a rebound could come at any time. So my current approach is simple: keep taking profits on the old short, but don't chase new shorts.
I'm watching 1262 above first, then 1281.78. As long as the rebound doesn't close back above these two levels, I'll treat it as a weak market; if it truly stabilizes above 1282, I'll start taking clear profits on this trade. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $CNPY Considering hesitating whether to place a limit short order at 0.3871, light position, low leverage. 【This is different from the other two new coins listed a few days ago】, this one on OKEx has no 【spot market】, and those without spot markets are prone to 【wild price moves】! Add or average down at 0.4646 ……haven't acted yet. Recently, my three main positions are all at huge unrealized losses, account available funds show 0, but the actual situation is owing 260~360u. Need to first deposit some funds via c2c to have available balance to participate. Everyone be cautious, play with light positions and low leverage, don't gamble your life on a new coin you don't really understand, that's irrational! One more thing: if placing a limit short order, absolutely do not use isolated margin. If you encounter a sudden 20% surge within a few seconds, you might not have time to add margin, resulting in forced liquidation and blow-up.Damn, finally figured out why ETH surged so suddenly last night. I almost thought the CLARITY bill had passed unanimously! But when I woke up this morning, I saw that the disagreements before the bill's vote still weren't resolved, and the market followed with a spike and then a pullback. So it was just another case of prematurely priced-in good news!
When $ETH quietly surged in the early morning, rumors were flying that regulatory benefits were about to land and the era of crypto compliance was coming. I bet a lot of people groggily got up to add positions, thinking this was a signal that the market was kicking off. But after waking up and checking the latest progress on the CLARITY bill, it was a cold splash of water.
Speaking of this bill, it's quite ridiculous 🥚: The Senate was supposed to vote to end debate, Republicans confidently claimed they had amended 126 items, even stuffing in 80% of the ethics plan approved by Trump, basically conceding a lot. But the Democrats still weren't buying it, saying the provisions on official interest divestment, stablecoin rewards, and state-level enforcement weren't up to par, and immediately planned a counterproposal.
The key is that the vote requires 60 votes to pass, Republicans only have 53 seats, so they need to pull at least 7 votes from Democrats or independents. The disagreements haven't been resolved yet, so whether it passes is still unknown. And this is just the "ticket" to get into formal consideration; the final bill signing and implementation will still require many rounds of tug-of-war.
No wonder ETH's rally died down and pulled back at midnight — classic scenario: funds betting on news pump the price early to build expectations, but once the news is out and things aren't so smooth, they cash out immediately, leaving those chasing highs stranded at the peak.
This is another lesson for us, let's look at a few points:
1. Don't blindly chase early morning moves. Most midnight pumps are news-driven; by the time you wake up and understand the ins and outs, others are already ready to sell, so chasing in likely means precisely catching the falling knife.
2. Expectations are all about "uncertainty." When things are settled, there's often no market movement. The more ambiguous and divided the situation, the more it can chop and change, cutting traders repeatedly.
What do you think!
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解 CORE Fright 8.31: The 2.1 Billion Cap Nearly Breached, Is the Hard Fork a "Revitalizing Miracle" or a "Last Gasp"?
⚠️This article is only an on-chain logic popular science review and does not constitute any investment advice.
The 8.31 vulnerability incident was the most thrilling life-or-death test since CORE went live. A flaw in the reward contract allowed malicious nodes to mint tokens excessively, putting the 2.1 billion total supply cap at risk of being breached. Panic swept the market, exchanges urgently suspended deposits and withdrawals, and the token price plunged sharply. The project team quickly launched a hard fork plan to destroy the 150 million excess ghost tokens, restoring the total supply back to 2.1 billion.
The crisis was temporarily averted, but market debate never stopped: was this hard fork a revitalizing miracle that saved the project, or merely a last gasp delaying the collapse?
1. A Night of Fright: The 2.1 Billion Total Supply Defense Line Nearly Breached
CORE uses Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, where validators stake BTC and CORE to earn block rewards. The problem lay in a vulnerability in the reward distribution contract, allowing attackers to claim rewards excessively and mint a large number of tokens out of thin air.
Once the news spread, the market’s first reaction was that the total supply rule had failed and tokens could be minted infinitely. For crypto projects relying on scarcity narratives, once the total supply cap is broken, the foundation of value is directly shaken. Many retail investors panicked and sold off, major exchanges quickly suspended CORE deposits and withdrawals to prevent abnormal tokens from flooding the secondary market and crashing prices, causing the entire ecosystem to stall.
On-chain analysts urgently tracked abnormal addresses, and the project team held emergency meetings, finalizing the hard fork plan within just 72 hours and initiating a full network node upgrade vote.
2. Bullish Perspective: The Hard Fork Is a Life-Saving Revitalizing Miracle
Optimists believe this hard fork precisely demonstrates the project’s resilience.
First, faced with a fatal vulnerability, the project did not choose to lie down and run but quickly proposed a hard fork plan to destroy the excess tokens through on-chain consensus, defending the 2.1 billion total supply rule. In crypto, most projects encountering such fatal contract vulnerabilities end with teams giving up and assets going to zero. CORE’s successful crisis management itself is a strong proof of capability.
Second, the underlying BTC staking infrastructure remains intact. This vulnerability only occurred in the upper-layer reward contract; the native BTC staked on the Bitcoin mainnet was neither stolen nor misappropriated, so CORE’s core BTCFi infrastructure base was not damaged.
Third, the crisis exposed risks all at once, equivalent to bad news being fully priced in. After this event, the project will strengthen contract audits and upgrade security risk controls, allowing the lstBTC institutional narrative to continue. The hard fork stabilized the situation and bought valuable time for the ecosystem’s long-term development.
3. Bearish Perspective: The Hard Fork Is Merely a Last Gasp
Skeptics argue that the hard fork only fixed the ledger numbers, leaving many deeper issues unresolved.
First, although 150 million excess tokens were destroyed, the disposal plan for the remaining 69 million ghost tokens has yet to be implemented. This potential selling pressure bomb still hangs over the market, ready to trigger a new round of panic.
Second, long-term token inflation pressure remains. With a total supply of 2.1 billion and a release cycle lasting 81 years, tokens continue to be minted daily. Currently, ecosystem revenue is meager, fees cannot cover inflation, and staking rewards still rely on minting CORE to subsidize users. The self-sustaining growth flywheel has not yet been built.
Third, competition in the staking track is intensifying. Babylon, STX, Merlin Chain continuously seize native BTC staking track resources. Even if CORE stabilizes its internal crisis, external competitive pressure will not disappear. Simply fixing a contract vulnerability does not guarantee success in breaking through the track.
The hard fork solved the immediate crisis of "this vulnerability’s excess minting," but ghost tokens, long-term inflation, and insufficient ecosystem revenue remain medium- and long-term challenges. Code fixes ≠ confidence restoration; ledger normalization ≠ fundamental turnaround.
4. Three Core Metrics to Judge the Hard Fork’s Effectiveness
To distinguish whether it’s a miracle or an illusion, don’t listen to the bulls and bears’ arguments; focus on three verifiable indicators:
1. A publicly disclosed and complete disposal plan for ghost tokens, clearly defining rules for destruction, locking, or phased release to eliminate the market’s biggest psychological burden;
2. Steady and continuous growth in ecosystem fees, gradually moving away from token minting subsidy models to form self-sustainability;
3. lstBTC sees large-scale institutional minting increments, with real BTC assets continuously entering the ecosystem, not just partnership announcements.
If all three indicators improve continuously, the hard fork can be considered a true turning point; if stagnation persists, this hard fork is merely a crisis stopgap.
Conclusion
The hard fork successfully averted the catastrophic disaster caused by the 8.31 vulnerability and preserved CORE’s total supply narrative—an undeniable fact.
But one crisis fix does not mean the project’s fundamentals have been completely transformed. The hard fork defended the ledger but cannot immediately restore market confidence or solve token inflation and ecosystem sustainability issues.
Whether it’s a revitalizing miracle or a last gasp depends not on the moment the fork completes but on subsequent ecosystem implementation and risk management outcomes.
💬 Interactive question: After the 8.31 hard fork, what do you think is CORE’s biggest hidden risk—remaining ghost tokens or the ecosystem’s inability to profit? Share your thoughts in the comments!The movement of heaven is strong and vigorous
A gentleman should strive for self-improvement without rest
Excited
So excited
Keep dropping for me
Let me sell, you manipulative whales
My 20 ETH short positions are still open
Opened at 2253
Currently floating loss of 4887U
Survived 2667
No way to give up at 2497
I'm betting on this rate hike
The FOMC decision will be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17
Press conference at 2:30 AM
Currently, the market prices in about a 93% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike
Oil price stands above $107
US 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5%
Liquidity pressure is indeed increasing
But beware of a sharp rebound after bad news is priced in early
—
$ETH up 0.8% in 24 hours
Trading volume $16.4 billion
Market cap about $303.7 billion
2500 is the battleground between bulls and bears
If 2520 to 2560 can't hold down, I continue to watch 2438 and 2400
If it breaks below 2400
Next support is 2350
But if it holds above 2560
The short logic weakens
My liquidation price is at 2610
Absolutely cannot close eyes and hold through this
—
$ZEC market cap $19.4 billion
24-hour trading volume about $1.14 billion
Up 1% over seven days
While the overall market dropped about 1.5%
Indicates ZEC is clearly stronger than the market
But trading volume dropped 28.5% week-on-week
High-level chasing funds are weakening
1100 is key support
If broken, look at 1075 and 1000
If held, a rebound to 1200 is possible
ZEC is the coin among the three that you shouldn't short recklessly
—
$LAB seems to really be offloading
Market cap about $34.39 million
Seven-day drop over 27%
Circulating supply has reached 68% of total supply
More troublesome is
16.23 million LAB unlock every month
Continuing until December
If 0.049 doesn't hold
May retest around 0.041
Rebound resistance first looks at 0.055 to 0.060
—
If rate hike is 25 basis points
Combined with hawkish remarks
Downward pressure likely heaviest on LAB
ETH next
ZEC relatively resistant
But rate hike doesn't necessarily mean a drop after announcement
What really decides direction
Is the gap between market expectations and Fed's stance
Manipulative whales, keep pumping
I'm just waiting for you to sell 📉
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 Liquid Network was hacked for 4,000 BTC (about $320 million): the vulnerability patch was delayed for 5 months without deployment, and the code hadn't been touched for two years.
The attacker exploited a range proof caching flaw; the multisig on 11/15 was ineffective—nodes treated fake coins as real, and no matter how high the threshold, it only made the wrong signatures look more orderly.
The "white hat" emptied the funds first then demanded a ransom, but Blockstream publicly refused to pay. It's uncertain whether the $47 million can be recovered, but at least there's no precedent for giving a "self-proclaimed white hat" a free pass.
Multisig protects against bad actors, not bad code.$SOL $101.36, -1.16% today, a steady sustained slide from 104.83 down to 100.58, now stabilizing near 101. MA5/10/20 all sloping down — clean, consistent selling, not a single flush.
Timely: Dragonfly partners are voicing bullish views on the Robinhood ecosystem — worth noting as tokenized equity infrastructure (where SOL plays a role) keeps drawing institutional attention.
+35.85% (30D), +40.69% (90D). Zoom out. The SOL mainnet upgrade has been activated, but the price has given back the gains from this morning; the technology implementation and the coin price did not move in sync.
The official Solana page has changed to "Live on Mainnet" today, with txv1 officially enabled and the single transaction size limit expanded to 4,096 bytes. Coinbase also shows that SOL's gain over the past 24 hours is only about 0.2%, with the relative strength from this morning basically gone. The on-chain switch was turned on as planned, but the market did not immediately reward it.
Regular transfers are still compatible with the old format; the real test is whether browsers, RPCs, and indexing services can correctly read v1. I am holding my SOL spot without moving it and not chasing this pullback as a "positive development." Next, I will watch whether commonly used browsers and RPCs can continuously and correctly recognize v1, and then see if SOL can outperform BTC again; if neither happens, I will continue to wait and see.
Data sources: Solana Foundation, Coinbase. Personal record, not investment advice. $SOL $DOGE just made a new weekly low at 0.08191 and bounced. Barely.
I flagged 0.0883 as the level to reclaim a week ago. It never got close.
Here's the uncomfortable part: 376M $DOGE traded in 24 hours and price still went nowhere. That's a lot of effort for zero progress.
Heavy volume with no movement usually means one side is quietly unloading into the other.
0.0836 is the first hurdle. Still holding?#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged XLM current price is 0.193, with thin buy orders on the order book. There is dense resistance with orders stacked between 0.198 and 0.202 above, and capital shows no willingness to actively sweep. On the four-hour chart, volume contracts and price moves sideways, with MACD lines converging and flattening—this is a typical sign of an impending breakout. The overall market news is chaotic with no directional guidance; purely based on K-line structure, XLM is more inclined to test liquidity downward.
Just unscrewed my thermos and took a sip of cold boiled water; the surveillance screen still shows the same few cars coming and going.
Support below is at 0.186, the previous low, with heavy stop-loss accumulation further down at 0.180. If 0.193 cannot hold, there is a high probability of a quick spike down to 0.186 or even 0.182. On the upside, only a volume-backed close above 0.200 confirms a bullish trend; otherwise, any rebound is just an opportunity to escape.
In terms of trading strategy, the focus is on short positions. Enter gradually between 0.193 and 0.196, with the first take-profit target at 0.186 and the second at 0.181. Set stop-loss at 0.201; if the daily close is above this level, admit the mistake and exit. Keep leverage under 5x and position size below 20%.
Avoid long positions for now; wait for a volume-supported rebound signal near 0.186 before considering a short-term long, targeting only 0.192. Chasing longs at this level is just handing money to the manipulators.
The market is quiet with poor liquidity and high risk of spikes. Don’t be greedy with orders; take profits when you can. I’ll keep watching the gate barrier; manage your positions carefully.
$XLM
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱
@OKX星球 5% just became crypto’s most expensive number.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since October 2023, while Brent trades near $107 and markets lean heavily toward a Fed hike Wednesday.
When “risk-free” money pays 5%, speculative capital has to fight harder for every dollar. Crypto’s next battle may be happening in the bond market, not on-chain.
Image suggestion — separate: U.S. Treasury/bond-yield chart showing the 10-year crossing 5%, from today’s coverageThis hourly candle of ETH finally managed to regain some of the face it lost earlier.
Between 13:00 and 14:00 Beijing time on September 15, both BTC and ETH initially dipped but closed back above their opening prices. OKX spot BTC rose about 0.08% this hour, ETH about 0.23%. In the previous hour, ETH fell more heavily, but this hour it recovered faster.
A small detail I’m willing to give credit to: ETH closed at 2496.45 USDT, just climbing back into the range of the 4-hour candle from 8:00 to 12:00 this morning. It’s less than 1 USDT above that session’s low, a very slim margin, but at least it’s no longer outside.
BTC’s 14:00 close was just a bit short. By 14:09 on review, it was slightly below the lower boundary of the morning range, while ETH remained inside; however, the new hour had only just started.
I will treat this segment as the start of a recovery with a closing basis, rather than continuing to say “ETH is weaker.” However, the latest complete 4-hour candle is still the morning one, from 12:00 to 16:00, which hasn’t ended yet; if the later close falls back outside the morning range, this recovery will be discounted.
Crypto community version of returning to the sofa: climbing to the edge is worth noting, but hold off on the victory music.
Data as of 14:09 Beijing time; all figures are based on USDT spot prices, Binance supports the above closing differences.
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.This FOMC, what you really need to watch isn’t "whether they raise rates," but whether the dot plot will be pushed higher again.
Last time in June, the Fed already gave an answer: the 2026 PCE forecast was raised from 2.7% to 3.6%, core PCE from 2.7% to 3.3%, and the year-end median federal funds rate was also raised from 3.4% to 3.8%.
This is why the market later didn’t dare to rush recklessly.
At 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday early morning, the rate decision and economic projections will be released together; the 02:30 press conference is the second round of pricing.
$BTC was around 77,598 and $ETH around 2,496 at the time of posting. Both are stuck just below 78,000 and 2,500 respectively—not because there’s no direction, but because no one dares to bet on the interest rate path for the next few months before the dot plot comes out.
If the inflation and terminal rate forecasts in this projection don’t decrease, or even continue to be revised upward, then even if there’s no rate hike that night, risk assets will hardly be treated as bullish. Because the market isn’t trading on today’s rate level, but on how long money will remain expensive.
Conversely, if inflation forecasts fall and the rate path eases, with BTC reclaiming 78,000 and ETH holding above 2,500, only then can we talk about this pullback ending.
The FOMC decides how to spike the market that night.
The dot plot decides who dares to keep holding in the following weeks.
$BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Third Cut: Leveraged Longs Are Re-Accumulating, The Powder Keg Is Filling Up
Coinglass data is alarming: If ETH falls below $2389, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $889 million. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $2626, short liquidation intensity will be $815 million.
Open interest in the ETH derivatives market remained high at around $34 billion in early September. Both longs and shorts are adding positions, and the market is highly leveraged. A breakout in either direction will trigger large-scale chain liquidations.
From the current price structure, the density of long liquidations below is rapidly accumulating — meaning if $2500 doesn't hold, the next waterfall drop could be even more severe than the last.
$ETH $BTC $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 #沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周 In the discussion about $CAP, the most noteworthy aspect is not the direction itself, but the position sizing: the poster limits the risk per trade to 5% of total capital, then applies 20x leverage, emphasizing a stop-loss level that can withstand about 12,000 units of loss, equivalent to two days of zero profit. This structure indicates that he is not unconstrainedly bearish, but uses a small position to absorb short-term volatility while maintaining a bearish stance. Mechanically, 5% principal with 20x leverage results in a nominal exposure roughly equal to the principal size; a price move against the position of about 5% would hit the principal loss limit. If the position is heavier, a 10 to 20 point price surge would be enough to trigger liquidation, which explains his rhetorical question, "What is the stop-loss for?" In terms of market impact, such public light bearish statements mostly reflect sentiment and position mindset rather than capital flows that can change the market; the real price influence still comes from overall liquidity and contract position distribution. The related risks are that slippage, funding rates, and sudden forced liquidations under leverage do not disappear with light positions; in extreme conditions, the 5% loss limit can also be breached by price gaps. Going forward, one can observe whether $CAP's contract positions and funding rates rise inversely with price to judge if shorts are adding positions. Please independently assess risks and participate cautiously. #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
Just saw a post saying the ETF has had net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling nearly $450 million.
Looking at this number alone doesn’t feel like much. But it gets interesting when you compare: at the beginning of September, there was a single-day inflow of 730 million, which quickly turned into a single-day outflow of 280 million. The turnaround speed is faster than flipping a page.
ARKB is the hardest hit, with 164 million withdrawn in one day. The key point is that IBIT is also seeing outflows, which is a significant signal. It used to be said that BlackRock was the institutional entry point; when the entry becomes an exit, it indicates some big money is reducing exposure.
However, one piece of data is counterintuitive: the ETF’s total net assets are still around 97.5 billion, and the 400+ million outflow this week accounts for less than 0.5%. So whether this is a "massive retreat" or just "routine portfolio adjustment" is hard to say.
People on-chain are already discussing whether the 77,000 level can hold. ETF fund flows and price are indeed negatively correlated in the short term, but looking over a longer period, there has still been a cumulative net inflow of over 5.5 billion since the beginning of the year.
Personal view: don’t get misled by single-week data. The recent wave in September looks more like profit-taking after the big rally at the end of August. To really judge a trend reversal, we need to see if the outflows continue next week or if the funds turn back.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 @OKX中文 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Most coins in the same sector have already experienced early stagnation and decline, while $PIEVERSE belongs to the late-stage catch-up coins of the sector rally. After the overall sector environment weakens, only a few coins surge to 1.2281; such isolated spikes are difficult to sustain for long.
It is hard for a single coin to break away from the sector's overall trend and form an independent rally. After the sector's heat subsides, the last catch-up coins to start usually experience the fastest pullbacks.
Simulated a short position at 1.2281; after facing resistance, the market gradually declined, with the mark price at 1.1436. This simulation yielded a return of +137.61%.
Review insight: First assess the sector's overall environment before trading individual coins. During a sector downturn, risks for high-level targets are amplified. $ZEC $CAP #ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 Rate hike expectations remain, CLARITY vote not out yet, overnight was short covering to supply zone
All prices in the early session are positioning in front of these two thresholds
9/15 Early session - Mainstream sectors
$BTC ETF outflow about 73 million; whale net inflow to exchanges about 1768 coins, this morning large spot orders have turned to net outflow, still expecting a rebound squeeze, not new long positions
Support: 77800–78000, 77100
Resistance: 79200–79540, 80200
View: Unable to surpass yesterday's high, still seen as range-bound inside the wall, losing 77800, likely to return to 77100 before the vote, no directional adding before the vote, above 78K is the area to reduce event risk
$ETH Followed the rise to early session resistance and stopped near it, the only one among the three coins with continuous institutional spot buying, but price can't break 2530, meaning is clear: buying is hedging supply, not lifting the trend
Support: 2480, 2465
Resistance: 2530, 2580
Break 2465, independently weakens
$SOL Held 100, but trend unchanged, whales are selling, retail is buying, 100 is just the midpoint
Support: 101.5, 100
Resistance: 104.7, 105.8
All three coins stopped below resistance in the same direction, direction depends on tonight's vote and Thursday's Fed meeting, risk events default #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Today's surge followed by a pullback might be a preemptive move for a major storyline?
The market today feels like it’s already acted out the script in advance.
$BTC briefly touched around 79,000, $ETH surged to 2619, and $ZEC also pushed higher, but then several coins pulled back together.
Why is today so restless?
Because in the next 48 hours, two major events are coming back-to-back: the CLARITY Act and the FOMC. The Senate voted today to decide whether the CLARITY Act can continue to move forward, and tomorrow it’s the Fed’s turn.
So the market is actually betting on one thing:
Regulation brings positive news, and the Fed doesn’t scare the market again.
If the CLARITY Act moves forward smoothly, and tomorrow’s FOMC isn’t more hawkish than the market expects, these coins that surged early today could very well have a second leg up.
But if today’s rise is just funds rushing ahead, once the news lands, it’s easy to see a "good news priced in" pullback.
Right now, I’m watching three places:
BTC 79,000 → 80,000
ETH 2619 → can it reclaim this level?
ZEC → after the surge, can it hold the gains?
This time, I don’t want to guess the direction.
Because the real drama hasn’t started yet.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解 Symbiosis's Bitcoin Bridge was attacked on September 11. The attacker minted about 46.1 billion syBTC without sufficient BTC support, and the actual assets exchanged were about $336,000. The project team claims to have recovered about 15 BTC, and the native Bitcoin Bridge is still suspended. The numbers look contradictory: if so many fake coins can be minted, why can't they all be converted into real BTC? Because cross-chain bridges usually have two layers of assets. The first layer is the "accounting voucher," such as syBTC on the target chain; The second layer is the BTC actually locked in the bridge. If the attacker only breaks the minting logic, they can create a large number of certificates, but they still need to find enough liquidity to convert the certificates into real assets. Therefore, the book amount and the final cashable amount may differ by several orders of magnitude. This is also the difference between bridging risk and regular wallet transfers. Wallet signatures mainly prove "this transaction is authorized by a key," while bridges also need to prove "there is indeed sufficient reserves behind the target chain certificate." If any link in minting, cross-chain messaging, or reserve accounting fails, users may only receive a token that looks like BTC. The project team suspending single Bitcoin routing and retaining other network channels is an emergency measure to isolate failures. But for users, before resuming the bridge, they cannot only look at token prices or wallet balances but also confirm the corresponding minting permissions, reserve status, andOpportunity Cost: The Invisible Price in Crypto
Opportunity cost: Making a choice means giving up the value of the next best alternative. It doesn't show up on the bill, but it truly exists.
Many comfort themselves after being stuck: it's only an unrealized loss, not a real loss.
But your funds are locked up, unable to participate in other markets — that is opportunity cost.
It's not just money; time and attention also have opportunity costs.
Staying up late watching the market chasing hot trends, even if you don't lose money, means giving up the chance to improve yourself and live well.
Betting heavily on getting rich quick essentially means giving up the "stable survival" as a second-best option.
Trading decisions shouldn't only look at paper profits and losses.
You should ask yourself: If I don't make this choice, what will I lose?
Being out of the market essentially preserves your option and avoids opportunity cost.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is only a personal insight and does not constitute any investment advice. Virtual currency trading carries extremely high risk.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 #沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ASTER has moved less than 3% in two days. 0.6812 to 0.7106, over and over.
Most traders hate this. They force an entry, get chopped both ways, then miss the actual move when it comes.
Tight ranges are where patience gets paid. The longer it coils, the harder the break.
0.7106 opens it up. 0.6812 flips it bearish. I don't have an opinion until one of them goes.
Do you trade ranges, or sit them out?#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged BTC's rebound, why is it completely opposite to ETF fund flows?
Today $BTC is approaching $80,000, but the spot ETF saw a net outflow of $463 million last week, ending three weeks of inflows, with a single-day outflow of $283 million on September 10. ETFs are withdrawing while prices are rising — this is a short squeeze, not spot buying. Expectations of easing geopolitical tensions have triggered short covering, forcibly pushing the price up.
ETH: Shorts are bearing the risk
$ETH contract trading volume surged 53% in 24 hours, reaching $52.6 billion, with open interest around $32.4 billion. This scale indicates leveraged funds are entering the market massively. The liquidation map shows that if ETH breaks $2,641, mainstream CEX short liquidations could reach $893 million. Shorts are bearing asymmetric risk.
$SOL: Upgrade implemented, but the market gave no premium
Transaction V1 activated today at epoch 1035, increasing single transaction capacity from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes, a 3.3x increase. But SOL price barely moved, indicating the market's pricing logic for technical upgrades has shifted from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at real demand after implementation." Meanwhile, Alameda Research transferred about $9.47 million worth of SOL to Coinbase Prime last night and still holds about 270 million SOL for sale.
BTC relies on short squeezes, ETH on leverage, SOL on upgrades — all three coins are rising today, but their driving forces are completely different. Such divergence won't last long before the FOMC.Wait, don't read "BTC spot ETF single-day inflow of about 160 million" directly as "five consecutive outflows are over."
Trader T data revealed today: The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $160.5 million on the previous trading day, ending five consecutive trading days of net outflows, and marking the first day of net inflow since September 4. IBIT led with about $134 million, FBTC about $53.3 million. The headline says "Institutions are back," which looks like an immediate trend reversal.
A common misunderstanding is to treat the "first day of inflow" as a "weekly-level trend confirmation." One day's net inflow, compared to about $460 million outflow last week, only interrupts the rhythm, not overturn the trend; the Fed decision is still tomorrow, and funds could completely switch again. Let's first see if the inflow can continue for two days; don't write single-day data as a full institutional return.
You can check BTC USDT perpetual on OKX for related info, do your own research, DYOR, this does not constitute investment advice.CLARITY Act survival line: 60 votes.
At 2:15 AM Beijing time on Sept 16, the U.S. Senate holds a procedural vote. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least 7 Democrats must cross over. Polymarket puts 2026 passage odds at just 18%. Pass = regulatory clarity repricing; fail = BTC trades more on rates. Event-driven volatility ahead#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged The market rally faltered again; between DOGE and TRUMP, which meme can hold up better?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
To talk about these two memes, we first need to clarify—$DOGE and $TRUMP both look like sentiment coins, but their driving forces are completely different. This morning, the market just tried to rally, but by noon it was pushed back down, perfectly revealing which one is more fragile.
DOGE is the meme king, with large scale and a solid base of supporters. It basically follows the market sentiment switch: when risk appetite returns, it rises; when the market cools, it shrinks accordingly. Its strength lies in sustained liquidity, so it’s not left unattended in a day. TRUMP is a politically themed meme; its rises and falls rely more on news events for catalysts. When there’s no news, it stays dormant for long periods; a single piece of news can spike it instantly. Its pulses are sharper, but its support and sustainability are weaker.
The standards for "holding up" differ: DOGE watches the market mood and can follow sentiment cycles; TRUMP is essentially an event-driven gamble, with news releases often marking the payoff point. Don’t try to endure TRUMP with the patience you have for DOGE. If the market digests the rate decision and sentiment warms up again, DOGE will move more steadily and last longer; if it’s just a single isolated news event, $TRUMP spikes fast but falls back even faster once the news fades. One profits from sentiment, the other from news. Neither has clearly decided which game they’re playing—so why expect them to hold up?Has the US really treated $BTC as gold?
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议
Digital gold is confirmed!
The US House Financial Services Committee will review H.R.8957, the "American Reserve Modernization Act," at 22:00 Beijing time on September 16.
This bill has a crucial design: BTC will be placed separately into a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve," while other crypto assets will enter a different digital asset reserve. In other words, under this legislative framework, BTC and ordinary crypto assets are no longer on the same level.
Even more striking, BTC entering the strategic reserve is to be held for at least 20 years in principle, with quarterly reserve proofs published and subject to third-party audits.
The bill also requires the US Treasury and Commerce Departments to study "budget-neutral" ways to increase holdings, without relying on tax hikes, expanding deficits, or increasing national debt to buy coins. The government currently has no direct authorization for bulk purchases, but active accumulation has officially entered the research scope.
This is only the committee review; it still needs to pass the House, Senate, and be signed by the President.
But the signal it sends is already very clear: the US is trying to transform BTC from government-confiscated assets into a national reserve asset that requires long-term holding and public auditing.
Previously, when people called it "digital gold," it was more about the narrative. Now, US lawmakers are preparing to write these four words into the national asset management framework.
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 $HYPE fell back to 80, income hit a new high, so why is the price moving in the opposite direction?
The fundamentals are actually very strong. Open interest on September 10 reached $14.669 billion, the highest since October 2025, accounting for 76% of the entire market's perpetual DEX open interest.
On September 12, Coinbase Wallet launched Pulse Mode, providing mobile contract trading capabilities powered by Hyperliquid.
The price still dropped. The reason is that on September 13, the entire market deleveraged, with $150 million long positions liquidated. Additionally, whale concentration is increasing, with addresses holding over 100,000 tokens rising by 18.6%, shifting chips from retail to large holders.
It broke below the 5-day moving average of 85.37 and is testing the 20-day moving average of 79.10. The immediate support is between 76 and 78. [Owner](at://owner) On the eve of tomorrow's FOMC, HSBC just flipped from dovish to hawkish—overturning the previous forecast of "no rate hikes throughout 2026". They now expect 25bp hikes in both September and December, triggered by stronger-than-expected August employment and CPI data.
This aligns with your earlier note of an "85% probability of a rate hike in September," but now major banks have shifted directly from "no hikes" to "two hikes," indicating an escalation in hawkishness. Your current judgment of not opening new contracts before the FOMC is correct; let's reassess after tomorrow's outcome.