Orbit Post Sitemap
Why whales still get liquidated?
200 BTC + 8,594 ETH + 26M CP + 45M DOGE
All LONG. All high leverage.
Market -4% = all positions -40% to -200%
Diversification works for spot, not for 50x leveraged longs in correlated crash
$2.48M lesson
$BTC $ETH $DOGE AI giants are starting to emphasize "rhythm" and "returns," and the market is first cooling down chip stocks, with $SNDK also retreating to around $1,530.
Short-term focus:
Support: $1,500-$1,520
Strong support: $1,450-$1,470
Resistance: $1,570-$1,600
Only by reclaiming $1,600 can there be hope to challenge $1,700 again.
Currently, it looks more like profit-taking and expectation cooling combined, rather than an immediate trend reversal. If the $1,500 area holds effectively, as AI storage demand is repriced, $SNDK has a chance for a corrective rebound; if $1,450 breaks, attention should be paid to the $1,350-$1,400 area.
The issue with AI is not "whether to do it," but "how to account for it." The industry is shifting from burning cash for expansion to verifying efficiency, cash flow, and business closed loops. AI applications and infrastructure that truly improve productivity and continuously generate returns will continue to attract capital.
For $SNDK and $MU, storage demand driven by AI data centers remains the core support, but short-term valuation and sentiment fluctuations will be significantly amplified.
AI has not exited; it has just entered the "accounting cycle."
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 LSK current price is around 0.4668, and the naked K-line structure has already entered a zone where both bulls and bears must show their stance. The resistance between 0.4720 and 0.4750 is a dense trading pressure left from the previous sharp drop. The rebound to this area shows continuous volume contraction, indicating that active buyers are reluctant to chase higher, and the bulls have not truly regained control.
On the downside, the support between 0.4580 and 0.4550 is a previous low consolidation zone. Multiple overlapping lower shadows indicate short-term funds are defending this position. My phone has been vibrating in my pocket just now, probably a reminder to place orders, but I held off and didn’t take it. If the price pulls back to 0.4600 to 0.4620 and holds with a lower shadow, long positions can be entered.
Stop loss should be placed below 0.4560, with the first target at 0.4780. After stabilizing, look towards around 0.4880.
If the price breaks below 0.4550 with volume, the previous low structure is broken. A rebound to 0.4590 to 0.4610 is the entry zone for short positions, with stop loss above 0.4660 and a target at 0.4450.
If this structure does not form, continuing to stay idle and watch won’t help; volume and price must synchronize.
$LSK
#沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周
@OKX星球 ETH Midday Core Logic · Qualitative: Clearly weaker than BTC, the range broke first, 2406 was a fake drop. Now it's a battle for 2406—if it recovers the upper decline, it can hold; if not, look at 2345; a complete loss is very passive. · Long: Volume surge past 2415 on the right side to follow long, retreat if it pulls back; light long positions supported on 2358 pullback, stop loss if 2317 breaks; only look at 2443-2485 if hourly closes above 2415. · Short: Volume drop below 2389 on the right side to follow short, don't skimp on stop loss; can short near 2443, stop loss if 2485 breaks; 4-hour break below 2389 targets 2358-2317. · Left side: 2284 spike long, stop loss if 2251 breaks. · Resistance: 2415 / 2443 / 2485 · Support: 2389 / 2358 / 2317 BTC Midday Core Logic · Qualitative: Not crashing doesn't mean strong, the bill is already known, the real defense is the Federal Reserve. The 77505-76511 platform broke, hourly M top formed, now looks more like a downtrend followed by consolidation. Consolidation is the most annoying, random moves are traps. The 74912 spike was just a brake, not a bottom, don't bottom fish before confirmation, wait for the right side to go long. · Bullish reversal: First return to the 77505-76511 range, rebound needs to break 77505. If 76511 can't be reclaimed, it will grind between 76511-75570, or even retest 74912. · Long: Volume surge past 76016 on the right side to chase long for rebound; only look at 76511-77 if hourly holds above 76016.🚨 Bears, don’t celebrate too early. One big green candle could change the whole mood. 😏🚀
Last night’s early-hours spike scared a lot of traders, but I’m still holding my Bitcoin long from 74,945.
The 2,365 long is still open too.
BTC looks ready for a short-term rebound, with 77,500 as the first target. If momentum continues, I’m watching 78,888 next.
That doesn’t mean the market is risk-free. Volatility is still high, and the upcoming FOMC announcement could shake things up.
#DailyOrbit Evening data summary, BTC status overview:
Current price: 75622 (bearish bias)
Resistance level: 78054 (+3.2%)
Support level: 74896 (-1.0%)
Volatility range: 74896-78054, about 4.2%
Key signals: Price is close to support, rebound is weak, center of gravity is shifting downward.
Operation interpretation: At this position, there is insufficient room to short, and it's not yet time to bottom-fish. Wait for two signals: 74896 stabilizes → try long; rebound above 77000 → try short.
My plan: Try short at 77000-77500, target 74896; try long if 74896 stabilizes, target 76500. Each trade 5000U, stop loss must be set, no holding losing positions.
Recovering from a 200,000U loss, don't be impulsive tonight, rest if the position isn't right. $BTC #中东能源风险推高油价 Don't sleep tonight. A 95% rate hike is already priced in; the real massacre starts after 2:30 AM
First, look at three numbers:
95% — CME pricing probability for a 25 basis point rate hike tonight. Three months ago, this number was still below 35%.
88% — Rate hike probability given by the prediction market. The remaining 12% bet on no change, basically a losing bet.
79.6% — Probability of at least a 50 basis point hike in December, not 25, but 50.
The decision will be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time tonight, and at 2:30 AM, Waller will hold a press conference. The real market movement is not at 2:00 but at 2:30.
Here’s the conclusion first, then the logic.
Three key levels
🟢 Support: $74,000-$74,965
The 24-hour low is $74,965. Breaking below this will trigger programmatic sell-offs in a stampede fashion, next stop $72,000.
🟡 Midline: $75,500-$77,000
BTC is currently hovering around $75,959. It has been consolidating between $75,000-$82,000 for a full five weeks. Tonight is the moment to break the balance.
🔴 Resistance: $79,500 → $82,000
First resistance at $79,500, which has repeatedly blocked rebounds. Above that, $82,000 is the September high.
Two principles
1️⃣ Do not open positions between 2:00-2:05 AM.
On the 15-minute BTC chart, it can plunge 1.48% sharply; slippage and liquidation risk are huge. The top 5 bid-ask depth ratio is only 0.17, with sell orders six times the buy orders; the order book is as thin as paper. Opening positions under such liquidity means you’re gambling with luck, risking your principal.
2️⃣ Watching Waller’s speech 3 minutes before it starts is a hundred times more important than the decision itself.
The dot plot is the real baton. The June dot plot median has already raised the year-end 2026 rate expectation to 3.8%, with 9 of 19 members expecting more hikes this year.
In August at Jackson Hole, Waller said a blunt truth: “If we can’t confirm inflation is falling to 2% fast enough, the Fed still has work to do.”
This statement directly pushed the September hike probability from 35% to 60%.
If tonight he continues to say “decisions will be made meeting by meeting” — uncertainty in the path = high volatility. Don’t rush to take a directional bet, just survive first.
One taboo
❌ Don’t chase longs above $78,000, and don’t panic sell below $74,000.
A 95% rate hike is already priced in. The real market moves come from “surprises,” not “expectations.”
There are three sources of surprises:
Dot plot turns hawkish → If it changes from “one hike this year” to “two or even three hikes,” the dollar strengthens, and BTC will be directly pressured.
Voting split → In July, 3 officials voted for a hike; if there’s a dissenting camp this time, the market will reprice the path.
Waller’s wording → If he just reads the script without economic judgment, long-term rates may jump again. He caused market turmoil like this in July.
Another variable to watch: the 10-year US Treasury yield has already hit 5%. This is a 20-year high. For BTC, a non-yielding asset, opportunity cost is soaring. ETF inflows of $3.8 billion in the past three weeks have indeed provided support, but if rates hold above 5%, the pressure of capital outflow is real.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $SNDK AI slowdown fears are flying everywhere, but SanDisk's candlestick chart has long given the answer.
From the high of 1821, it has crashed all the way back to 1536, without even organizing a decent rebound in between. Take a look at the 4-hour chart: EMA21 and EMA55 are like two walls pressing down side by side above, and the SAR is hovering over 1579. The J value below has dropped to 27, and the RSI is hovering around 35. It looks oversold, but in a one-sided downtrend, oversold is a bottomless pit.
The low of 1507 barely managed to hit the brakes today. But the most heartbreaking thing is the news — the "AI faith" that previously pushed the stock price to the sky has now become the reason for the sell-off. The knives are falling from the sky, and retail investors catching them are about to break their hands.
The key psychological level of 1500 is about to face a test again. Do you think this AI pullback is a case of being wrongly sold off, or the beginning of a bubble burst? Those going to buy the dip, are you really ready to face the mid-mountain?The Federal Reserve Chair personally chosen by Trump is doing the one thing Trump least wants to see—raising interest rates. And most likely, it will happen tonight.
The market pricing probability is 90%. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 95%, with a 70% chance of another hike in December.
Last Sunday, Trump just said, "The U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world," and White House economic advisor Hassett quickly added: the president "won't be too happy" about the rate hike.
But that's no longer the main point.
The real variable: The Fed is being "priced in" by the market.
ING's latest outlook has a sentence more worth pondering than the rate hike itself:
"The market's policy reaction function to the Fed is reversing. Previously, data forced tightening; now it leans toward hiking unless data is weak enough to pause."
What does this mean?
The Fed's decision-making logic has changed. Before, if you didn't hike rates, the market thought the data wasn't there yet. Now, if you don't hike, the market thinks you're politically compromised.
Waller took office in May this year, and at his first press conference in June, he sounded hawkish. Then what? Rates stayed flat. Long-term rates didn't fall but rose—investors were uncertain if his tough talk would translate into action.
At Jackson Hole in August, he said "there's almost no evidence that borrowing conditions are restraining the economy," paving the way for hikes.
September CPI data exceeded expectations, closing the last door.
Waller has cornered himself.
No hike? The market says you're afraid of Trump, and the Fed's credibility is damaged. Hike? Doing so seven weeks before midterms displeases the president and pressures the economy.
"New Fed correspondent" Timiraos said: no matter what he chooses, someone will question his motives.
This isn't just about rate decisions; it's a battle for credibility.
What does this have to do with BTC? A lot.
The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5%. The 30-year yield hit a 19-year high.
The short-term logic is clear: rate hike → stronger dollar → BTC under pressure. BTC has dropped from about 82,000 in early September to around 77,000. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net outflow of 463 million, the largest in nearly 10 weeks.
But if you only see this layer, you'll miss the real signal.
Foresight News' analysis hits the mark: the market is for the first time listing "Fed independence" as a core risk factor. If the conflict is interpreted as the Fed yielding to politics, the dollar's credit will be impaired, and Bitcoin's "anti-fiat depreciation" narrative will be reactivated—first falling with risk assets, then driven by concerns over the traditional monetary system's credibility, leading to narrative-driven demand.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan puts it more bluntly: currency depreciation trades are returning.
Grayscale's latest report also points out that as fiscal imbalances worsen, investors are reassessing fiat currencies' long-term purchasing power, and Bitcoin is becoming a scarce, liquid alternative asset alongside gold.
In plain language:
If the market believes the Fed can control inflation, the dollar strengthens, and BTC remains a "risk asset" under pressure. If the market starts doubting the Fed's independence, BTC shifts from "tech stock" to "digital gold."
Two paths, completely opposite pricing logic.
What to watch tonight?
Not whether there will be a rate hike—25 basis points is already consensus and priced in.
Watch Waller's dot plot and press conference tone.
TD Securities expects three hikes this cycle: September, October, and January next year. If the dot plot is hawkish but Waller doesn't give a clear path, BTC will first face discount rate pressure, then the market will start pricing in a "dollar credit discount."
Conversely, if Waller clearly says "this is a recalibration, not the start of a continuous hiking cycle," short-term negatives will be exhausted, and BTC might actually breathe a sigh of relief.
Morgan Stanley economist Michael Feroli's words are worth posting on the wall:
"If the Fed Chair repeatedly warns seriously about intolerable inflation but lacks supporting actions, it will damage institutional credibility."
Powell was criticized by Trump for four years, but at least the market believed he wasn't a puppet. Waller has to prove that tonight.
Tonight, Waller's question isn't "to hike or not to hike."
It's "can the Fed still be trusted?"
The answer to this question is worth much more than 25 basis points.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $XRP 1.2964. It has fallen below 1.30, and the group chat has gone completely silent.
Yesterday, the brothers who were still shouting "XRP ETF capital inflow, altcoin season relies on it to hold the stage" probably won't even open the app today. Look at this 4-hour chart, dropping freely from 1.4914 straight down to 1.2633, with all five moving averages lined up overhead like a mountain pressing down hard. The J value has forcibly dropped into negative territory (-5.2), and the RSI is only 27.52.
Textbooks call this "extreme oversold," but in live trading, this kind of one-sided waterfall oversold is just a bull trap designed to fool retail investors trying to catch the bottom. The 1.26 low was barely held today, but if it breaks again, no one really knows where the bottom is.
Financing news is flying everywhere, but the market is voting with its feet, dropping nearly 7 points. Those who rushed in above 1.4 listening to stories are probably staring at their accounts in frustration now. They hate cutting losses, dare not add positions, and this kind of dead atmosphere is exactly what the main players love.
After breaking below 1.30, are you planning to stubbornly hold on waiting for a miracle, or are you ready to face reality and cut losses to exit? Share your true thoughts in the comments.9 coins rose and 1 fell, then all turned to rise, but the trading volume dropped by 10.85%
From 10:00 to 11:00, all fixed 9 coin samples closed higher, while the previous hour had 1 up and 8 down. The total spot trading volume decreased from 36,725,300 to 32,741,200 USDT, a reduction of 10.85%; XRP led with a 1.07% increase, BTC and ETH each rose about 0.52%.
The next 1H candle still has at least 6 coins closing higher, and the trading volume returns above 36,725,300, only then will the rebound be confirmed; if the number of coins closing lower expands to 6, this synchronous reversal fails. Do you think volume will fill first, or weakness will come first?
#BTC #ETH #XRPToday the entire market is bleeding heavily. The one thrown away most decisively is the cheapest one.
Dogecoin $DOGE has fallen back to the 8-cent level, which is the cost zone for many people when they first bought it. Three days ago it was still above 9 cents, and a week ago some were even shouting it could return to 1 dollar. An old coin that has dropped 90%, every rebound is taken by some as a new starting point, only to be knocked back to reality.
Why has $DOGE fallen more than the overall market? It's not because something happened, but because of the holder structure. It has no institutional base holdings, no staking lock-up, no one promising to hold long-term. The vast majority of holders are retail investors, and in panic, retail investors have only one move — sell the one that loses the least first, selling without regret.
There is also a detail on-chain: in the past week, whales have bought over 200 million coins. On one side they are cutting losses, on the other side they are picking up, and neither side thinks they are wrong.
Technically, it is already close to the oversold zone. Whether the 8-cent line can hold is more important than any narrative. If it breaks, it will return to this year's lowest level, below which there is no decent support.Some orders are just like this: the more you watch them, the more they stall; the moment you look away, they move. When the screen is full of green, $LIT has low high-level trading volume and weak rebound. I advise not to chase; short positions should be pressed down accordingly.
Panic comes from lack of planning; losses come from overthinking.
Shorted from 4.5543 to 4.1091, +490.19%, feeling good, brothers. Took profits on 80% first, kept 20% at cost price for protection, let the remaining run with the continued drop, and don’t give back profits if it rebounds.
Even if you only make one point, as long as you take it away, it’s yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market. For those who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately.
$SNDK $ZEC $BTC is still setting the tone for the overall market, and whether capital is willing to spread to higher risk preferences, I am more focused on whether $ETH's momentum and trading volume can strengthen simultaneously. If Bitcoin remains strong and Ethereum rises with increased volume, it may indicate that capital is starting to spread from mainstream coins to peripheral ones, rather than just rotating within a single asset. Once this diffusion is established, the beneficiaries are not only $ETH but may also drive higher-risk assets like $SOL to gain incremental attention, and market sentiment will shift from defense to exploration. The current pattern can be summarized as: if BTC is stable, the base is stable; if ETH moves, sentiment is active. The combination of both is the market signal worth tracking. The risk lies in that if ETH's momentum lacks volume confirmation or BTC weakens first, the diffusion logic will fail, and positions need to leave room. In terms of observation conditions, I will focus on whether ETH can independently strengthen with volume expansion during BTC's sideways movement, which is the true test of capital outflow. This week's FOMC rate decision and AI-related anxiety affecting chip stocks may also indirectly impact risk appetite. The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice; please manage your risk accordingly. The hour that dropped has already been recovered in the next hour. However, BTC and ETH trading volumes are not aligned.
From 10 to 11 AM on September 16, OKX spot BTC closed at 75886.7 USDT, ETH at 2403.2, rising approximately 0.51% and 0.52% respectively. Both coins recovered to their 9 AM opening prices, not just bouncing from the lowest point but still slightly behind on the books.
Interestingly, despite both recovering the drop, BTC's trading volume was about 25% less than the previous hour, while ETH's was about 16% more. Therefore, I disagree with calling this round a "rebound with no participation"; nor does it fit the description of "both coins increasing volume and turning strong."
ETH's previous candle almost closed at the lowest point, and this candle recovered the drop, which is an improvement worth acknowledging. Increased trading volume indicates more active trading but does not equal net inflow, nor can it be used to assign any institutional entry narrative.
I am willing to give this hourly-level recovery a point. To maintain this point, we need to see if it can continue to close above the 9 AM opening price; if it falls back, the just-recovered area will need to be re-examined.
Data as of 11:42 Beijing time. Both coins are still within the recent complete 04–08 AM four-hour range; the 11–12 AM hourly and 08–12 AM four-hour candles have not yet closed.
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. A working paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) analyzed nearly 100 billion blockchain records from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron, finding that commonly used on-chain metrics in the crypto industry may have significant biases.
The study shows that Bitcoin's on-chain transfer volume can vary by up to about 6 times depending on how unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are handled. Researchers point out that on-chain metrics should be regarded as approximate data rather than precise indicators of economic activity. Additionally, the study found that Ethereum has about 13 million active contracts, including approximately 1.4 million tokens. Due to decentralized trading, automated programs, and smart contract interactions generating a large number of on-chain events, raw on-chain data may overestimate or underestimate actual economic activity.
BIS researchers recommend that on-chain data analysis should fully consider the technical architecture of different blockchains and improve the transparency of metric calculation methods to avoid significant discrepancies caused by differences in UTXO handling or smart contract interaction filtering across various data platforms.$FLOCK current price is 0.06629, today it will break a new low to reach the lowest point, then in the evening it will surge to a new high waiting for the 2:30 AM meeting.
Tonight, the focus is on three things (not just whether to raise rates):
① Interest rate results; ② Dot plot, to see officials' expectations for rates at the end of the year and next year; ③ Waller's press conference wording, to judge whether further rate hikes will continue.
The bill is just a catalyst, not a decisive factor. Even if the bill passes, if the Fed raises rates and tightens liquidity, crypto will still decline; conversely, if the bill does not pass but the Fed floods the market with liquidity, the market can still go bullish.
Voting will have "buy the rumor, sell the fact": the market rises in advance before the vote, but after it actually happens, it surges and then falls back. This needs special attention in contract trading. $#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
Personal suggestion The CLARITY Act has just failed to pass a crucial procedural step in the US Senate. 🎯 60 votes were needed. ❌ Result: 49 FOR / 50 AGAINST. And the market is already reacting: ₿ BTC: under pressure around 75K–76K$ Ξ ETH: sharp decline 📉 Coinbase: double-digit drop during the session Why this rejection? ⚠️ Negotiations notably stumbled over ethical provisions, with Democrats considering that safeguards regarding crypto interests of public officials, including Donald Trump and🚨 In 2025, 11.6 million tokens will go to zero.
Liquidation — happens where the narrative stops.
These three sectors are happening:
🧠 AI Agent Long Tail
Eating up 35.7% of market attention
Only receiving less than 5% of funding
919 projects, $22.6 billion market cap
AI agent meme sector: $18 billion → $6 billion
Fatal point: agents generate no cash flow, tokens have zero claim on them
🌿 ReFi / Carbon Credits
Entire sector market cap $64.3 million
Daily volume $766,000
EWT -62.5%｜B3TR -52.6%
BCT: 21.11 million tons of real carbon credit backing, market cap $22,000
A whole track ≈ a medium-sized altcoin
🔓 High Unlock Low Market Cap
September total market unlock over $1.53 billion
PROVE single unlock = 104% of circulating supply
OPN average -30% within 14 days after each unlock, deepest -73%
Amount doesn’t matter, the proportion of circulating supply is deadly
What does it rely on for the next buyer?
Zeroing out is just a matter of time ⏳ What other sector coins do you know?
Crypto #Altcoins
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 Core Downward Logic (Fourfold International Negative Resonance)
1. Policy Negative (Direct Trigger for Sharp Drop): The US "Clarity Act" voting failed, completely dashing institutional compliance entry expectations, causing bulls to concentrate on taking profits and exiting.
2. Macro Negative (Underlying Pressure): US inflation remains strong, US Treasury yields soar, the Federal Reserve leans hawkish, US dollar liquidity tightens, and high-risk crypto assets face capital outflows.
3. Geopolitical Negative (Sentiment Suppression): Tensions in the Middle East push up inflation and suppress risk appetite, leading the market to sell off crypto assets for safety.
4. Market Stampede (Exacerbating Decline): The market plunge triggers widespread contract liquidations across the network, causing forced sell-offs. ETH, due to higher DeFi leverage, falls much more than BTC.
Current Situation
• $BTC: Pulling back from highs, more influenced by institutions and macro factors, relatively more resilient;
• $ETH: High leverage and fragile ecosystem make it a hard-hit area;
• Overall: Previous gains were driven by policy expectations and loose liquidity; now with reversed expectations on both fronts, short-term weakness is hard to reverse.
Summary:
The failure of the US crypto legislation combined with US dollar tightening and geopolitical risk has created multiple negative factors resonating together, triggering deep corrections in BTC and ETH. Leverage liquidations amplify market volatility, and short-term market sentiment has completely turned weak. Finally, let's wrap up by looking at the news and which data points we need to monitor going forward.
This recent dip is still a continuation of the pullback after the data, not a new price level system. The FOMC official decision is still scheduled for 9/16 Eastern Time. As of now, the result hasn't been released yet, so don't write it off as a rate hike already. Wait for the statement, dot plot, and press conference before updating.
The ETF also doesn't have new official settlement data to revise last week's numbers. For now, refer to the 9/14 foreign news report: The US stock spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $463 million from 9/8 to 9/11; in the same week, the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of about $197 million, Solana ETF about $10.3 million, and XRP ETF a small net inflow.
Going forward, watch for: FOMC results and speeches, new ETF settlements, and whether BTC 74,000, ETH 2300, SOL 90, XRP 1.2 are effectively broken below. Dogecoin has already stepped on 0.08; first, see clearly if it breaks this level.
Buy at the low, price levels remain unchanged. Stop loss must be cut when reached. If the line truly breaks, then discuss a new range. Everything else remains as usual. September Summary:
Currently 15 days, 12 days with profits taken, 3 days with stop losses
Today's news summary:
Today's market during the day confused many people.
The CLARITY Act procedural vote failed to reach 60 votes, directly pouring cold water on the crypto market. Coinbase dropped 10.10%, Circle fell 11.41%, BTC crashed to 75805, down 2.69% in 24 hours, ETH was even worse, dropping to 2401, down 4.48%. Regulatory progress was blocked, short-term sentiment bowed down first.
But interestingly, big players are buying against the trend. Strive bought 469 BTC last week, Bitmine increased holdings by 27,180 ETH. ETFs are flowing out, treasury companies are entering, two groups are opposing each other. Who is right or wrong, time will tell.
Tonight is the real showdown. At 02:00 on September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and dot plot, followed by a press conference at 02:30. The market prices in nearly a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike. Deutsche Bank said something very key: if the Fed ultimately keeps rates unchanged, it could be a significant dovish surprise. In other words, whether the rate hike happens depends on how hawkish the dot plot is. No rate hike might actually trigger a rebound.
In terms of operations, don't heavily bet on direction before the decision. Both bulls and bears are waiting for that number, volatility could increase at any time. The direction is given by the Fed, not chosen by the market itself.
What do you think, will there be a rate hike tonight or an unexpected pause? Let's discuss in the comments.
$BTC After yesterday's spill, the market looks calmer in the morning. BTC — $75.8K (-2.61%) ETH — $2.40K (-4.11%) XRP — $1.29 (-8.86%) And Fear & Greed fell from 69 to 51 — Neutral in a day. This is much more like a reaction to yesterday's movement, although the index itself is updated only once a day. What is interesting in the morning What hurt me the most was not the price of BTC itself, but the behavior of large buyers. MARA Holdings purchased 1,292 BTC for about $98.6 million through FalconX. The purchase took place after a fall when BTC was trading at a priceThe Clear Act vote did not pass, and the Federal Reserve will reveal its stance again at 2 a.m. tomorrow.
This time, the crypto world has truly reached a critical juncture.
The Clear Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, causing the legislative process to fail. BTC$BTC immediately dropped, once hitting around $75,000.
The failure of the bill itself isn't that scary; the real trouble is that as soon as this news came out, the Federal Reserve is about to hold a meeting. In other words, the crypto world is facing two major issues in two consecutive days.
One is regulation, the other is interest rates and liquidity. So don’t just focus on the Clear Act. The real market mover is the Federal Reserve. Pay close attention to Powell’s speech.
BTC first looks at 75,000.
If it holds, it means this wave of panic selling hasn’t completely wrecked the market.
If it doesn’t hold and volume increases, then it will continue to look for support lower.
ETH looks at 2400. $ETH
SOL looks at 100. $SOL
These levels are very critical tonight.
Right now, I’m not in a hurry to be bearish.
Because what’s really worth watching is whether the price falls after all the negative news is out.
If the Fed leans hawkish but BTC stubbornly doesn’t break below 75,000 and instead slowly recovers, the market may have already priced in a lot of the bad news.
One sentence for tonight:
Don’t guess, first watch 75,000.
How this level moves is much more useful than shouting bull or bear.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ From rushing for the first mining to rushing for the first coin, the gameplay has indeed changed.
Before the Arc mainnet launch, a group of users entered cross-chain early, bearing an 80%–100% USDC premium. The targets they selected theoretically need to double in market value to cover this cost — but judging by the current price performance, most positions are still in relatively favorable spots.
On the data side: just 2 hours after the mainnet launch, the total USDC on the Arc network reached 371,674,275, about 0.05% of the total USDC circulation; the current total number of addresses is 176,000.
With Meme trading active, another competitor aiming to compete on the same stage as Robinhood has emerged.$BTC Understand the CLARITY Act: Not passing ≠ total death, but the window for this year is basically closed
Many people are being misled by the news, either shouting "big negative news, it's over" or still fantasizing about an immediate turnaround. Let's break this down clearly.
This vote was not the final bill vote; it was a procedural Cloture vote to end debate and move to full chamber consideration, requiring a 60-vote threshold, which was not met and thus blocked.
- ✅ The House and Senate Banking Committees had already approved it
- ⚠️ But the full chamber failed to pass the 60-vote threshold
- 📊 The market had previously priced the probability of passage this year at only 32%, and the vote result just reflected reality
Two key impacts:
1. Short term: The big positive expectation for crypto compliance has directly receded
Many funds had positioned early, betting on a major step forward in US regulation. After the vote setback, this optimistic premium quickly disappeared, which was a major driver behind the recent pressure on Bitcoin and the drop around 74,900. It's not a doomsday negative, but buying on expectation and selling on disappointment.
2. Medium to long term: Not completely dead, just significantly delayed
The bill still exists, but it's very difficult to advance this year. US crypto regulation has shifted from "everyone expecting rapid loosening" back to a long, drawn-out tug-of-war with repeated negotiations. It's unrealistic to expect a full institutional compliance wave to erupt in the short term.
Don't go to two extremes:
Don't think "the bill failed, the bear market returns";
Nor comfort yourself with "it's just temporarily stuck, it will come back soon." Sei Labs has two rounds of equity financing: $5 million in seed round and $30 million in Series A, totaling $35 million. Additionally, there is an independent $120 million ecosystem fund (funds from the ecosystem fund support ecosystem projects, not Sei Labs itself). (1) Seed round | August 2022 | $5 million, led by Multicoin Capital. Participating institutions: - Coinbase Ventures - Delphi Digital - Hudson River Trading (HRT, traditional high-frequency trading giant) - GSR - Hypersphere Ventures - Flow Traders (market maker) - Kronos Research (crypto quant) Additionally, founders of Anchorage, Frax, YGG, and Tangent are also individual investors. (2) Series A | 2023-04 | $30 million, post-investment valuation $800 million Core institutions: - Jump Crypto (Jump Capital) - Multicoin Capital (continued addition) - Flow Traders - Hypersphere Ventures - Distributed Global - AsymmetrIs $ETH's fundamentals weak? The Glamsterdam upgrade is progressing, the testnet Platåberget is already live, ePBS, Gas repricing, contract size expanded from 24KB to 64KB — this is the biggest overhaul since the Merge. On the ETF side, there was still a net inflow of $95.44 million on September 15, institutions are buying.
The chain is under construction, but the price is taking a hit. This scene should be very familiar to veteran ETH holders.From the four-hour perspective, after Bitcoin dropped from around 79570, the highs have been continuously moving lower, and there has been almost no decent counterattack during the pullback, indicating that the main structure is still controlled by bears. Although there was some support after the 74909 spike, the subsequent rebound was limited. Currently, it is just a low-level horizontal consolidation and has not reclaimed the previously broken area, so this looks more like a buffer after the decline rather than a new round of upward attack. Next, it is easier to first make a technical rebound upward to digest the chips from the previous sharp drop, then test the support below. If the real body continues to shrink during the rebound, the selling pressure above can easily be released again. Looking at the one-hour chart, after 74909 there are consecutive small real body candlesticks moving sideways, indicating that the short-term selling speed has slowed down. The current position is not very cost-effective for chasing shorts directly, and the market needs to first pull up for a baiting recovery. However, the area around 76000-76300 above is exactly the dense trading zone after the previous breakdown, so the rebound is likely to encounter selling pressure again. Therefore, it is more comfortable to wait for the rebound to reach a position before shorting, rather than chasing hard at the current price.
Bitcoin short at 76000-76300, first target: 75400, then 74600
Ethereum short at 2420-2435, first target 2385, then 2355.
$BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ On the White House chessboard, Johnson just put the "emergency pause" piece back into the box from his hand—but he didn't make a move, just held it in midair, waiting for the players of seven or eight AI platforms to take their seats.
I've been in too many situations like this. The opponent threatens checkmate, but you first have to judge: is he really calculating a kill, or just bluffing to buy time? Now this security and speed dispute, which has moved from corporate statements to the government table, is essentially a midgame transition. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind have been in secret talks for weeks, pushing for third-party evaluations—this is not a surrender, but three parties privately negotiating endgame rules to avoid the referee forcing a draw. And Johnson's remark about "fear of falling behind China" raises the stakes of the entire game from a technical level to a national-level king's attack and defense.
True grandmasters understand: sacrificing a piece is never a loss, but a way to gain the initiative. Chip stocks plunged on September 14 due to GPU demand panic; the market read a tactical retreat as a structural collapse. This is a typical case of mistaking midgame anxiety for an endgame verdict. Demand hasn't disappeared; the players are just reassessing the value of pieces after the "mandatory regulation" variable takes effect—if safety rules flip from self-restraint to enforced supervision, it's like suddenly adding several neutral pieces on the board that belong to no side; they don't attack, but every move must be reported to the referee. This slows the pace but doesn't change the core variables of victory or defeat.
My judgment falls on linked targets like $xEWY: it is currently in the transition zone between opening and midgame, with pieces not fully developed, and any regulatory rumors will be amplified into volatility. Panic sellers cutting losses here is like abandoning the central bishop on the tenth move of the opening just because the opponent advanced a flank pawn. True strategists know that rule transparency is actually a way to clear uncertainty—the tracks under mandatory regulation are often easier for capital to hold long-term than those that act on their own.
The meeting Johnson proposed has no set date, and that is the signal worth watching most. No date means seats haven't been agreed upon yet; parties are still bargaining over who plays white and who plays black. The moment the date is set is when the midgame officially begins and real checks start alternating. Before that, all the declines are just piece exchanges probing; whoever is scared out of their position first hands over the initiative to those still calculating twenty moves ahead. #AISafetyDebateEscalates $CORE official Twitter has been silent for more than ten days; the so-called hibernation is just a self-deceptive lie, and the dominoes of collapsing confidence have already fallen.
The narrative has completely stopped, token sell pressure is endlessly released, with no positive news to hedge against it. The consensus within the market is cold and biting: any slight rebound is just an escape window. Bulls continue to withdraw, the downtrend loop is hard to break.
The official remains silent, disclosing nothing and responding to nothing. Rumors have taken over the entire community; the bullish narrative has lost its support, and holders’ confidence is being eroded day by day.
The once highly praised grand BTCFi blueprint has turned into a bubble with the silence. External developers and partners are hesitant, ecosystem growth has completely dried up, and the market cannot be sustained by the faith of trapped holders alone.
Liquidity continues to dry up, and order book support is increasingly weak. Once concentrated sell pressure hits, slippage suddenly expands; when you want to exit, you’ll find no funds to take over.
Community patience is exhausted. Veteran players cut losses and flee, external funds stop and watch, leaving only those bitterly waiting to break even in the community.
The chain can produce blocks normally, but that doesn’t mean the project is safe. Once confidence collapses, recovering it requires heavyweight positive news to support the bottom, which is almost impossible now. Prolonged silence is not a buildup, it’s lying flat and giving up.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. Virtual currencies are highly volatile and extremely risky. Bearish for the fourth day, taking a midday look at the market. TRUMP long positions are stuck underwater.
Bearish for the fourth day, taking a midday look at the market.
BTC just broke below 75,000, and Ethereum followed down.
The TRUMP long position I hold is still underwater, floating a loss of over one hundred, no close yet, just a real record.
On the chart, once the previous low breaks, the bulls' defense line is pierced. Panic selling emerges, and all rebounds turn weak reversals.
Right now it's weak, don't rush to buy the dip.
Below BTC, watch the previous low first; if it doesn't hold, it will probe lower.
Resistance above is heavy; if it can't break up, treat it as a pullback.
ETH remains bullish in the long term but can only endure short term.
TRUMP moves with the overall market; if the market is unstable, it’s hard for it to be strong alone.
Where do you think ETH's bottom is? Drop a number in the comments.
Raise your hand if you have short positions.
Are those holding longs still holding on?
$BTC $TRUMP
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $At 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates.
CME prices it at 95%, predict.fun shows 88%, and interest rate swap contracts at 94%. Deutsche Bank said something harsh: if they don't raise rates tonight, it will be the biggest "dovish surprise" since 1994.
To translate— the market has already taken the rate hike as a done deal.
But where is Bitcoin now?
$75,700.
It has already dropped 8% from the September high of $82,000. BTC briefly dipped to $74,909 in the early morning, with over 115,000 liquidations in 24 hours.
An event with a 95% probability has long been priced in by the market. While you're still watching "whether they will hike or not," smart money is already trading "after the hike."
The same data, two completely opposite conclusions
ING says: This is a "recalibration," not the start of a continuous rate hike cycle.
TD Securities says: This is the first shot of three hikes, with more to come in October and January next year.
The same CPI data—3.4% year-over-year, core month-over-month 0.3%—two institutions give completely opposite conclusions.
Why? Because the data itself is right on the borderline. Core CPI month-over-month at 0.3% is exactly at the critical point between "0.2 hold" and "0.3 hike." If it were 0.1 lower, the Fed could have held steady. But it is 0.3.
And the current market pricing is closer to TD Securities' version—already factoring in nearly four 25bp hikes over the next year.
Here’s the question: if the market has priced in 4 hikes, but the dot plot shows only 1?
That’s an expectations gap.
Three scenarios, three outcomes
Scenario A: Hawkish dot plot, Waller confirms the path
The market confirms the "three hikes" narrative, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. BTC tests $73K-$74K support, altcoins fall even more—ETH and SOL have beta coefficients 2-3 times that of BTC, so their drops hurt more.
Key data: BTC dominance is currently 58.51%, capital is concentrating in BTC. This is not panic, it’s defense.
Scenario B: Rate hike happens, but dot plot shows only one, Waller’s stance is ambiguous
A typical "hawkish hike but less hawkish than expected." Bad news is fully priced in, BTC rebounds to $80K-$82K. Around $82,000, there is about $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk concentrated; once broken, short squeeze will accelerate the rally.
Scenario C: Rate hike happens, Waller emphasizes "data dependency," downplays the path
This is the scenario Huitong.com analysis considers most likely. The market will fluctuate short-term, waiting for the next data point. BTC will grind between $75K-$78K. But the directional choice will be postponed until the October meeting.
Why is C most likely? Because Waller doesn’t want to give forward guidance at all. His first act after taking office was to scrap the Fed’s "advance notice policy" routine. At the July meeting, the market priced a 38% chance of a hike; he stayed put, catching everyone off guard.
A Fed chair who doesn’t like to be held hostage by the market will most likely do this tonight: hike rates, but say nothing about what’s next.
The two real things to watch
First, the median interest rate in the 2026 dot plot. It was already adjusted once in June, from 3.4% to 3.8%. If it goes up again this time, even by 25bp, the market will start pricing in more hikes.
Second, Waller’s wording at the press conference. If he says "inflation is still too high" but gives no timeline—that’s scenario C, volatility. If he says "further tightening is needed"—that’s scenario A, BTC heads to $73K.
Finally, a harsh truth
A 95% rate hike probability is not a trading opportunity.
The 5% after that 95% is.
The market spent a whole month pushing the rate hike probability from 52% to 95%. The $75,700 you see now already includes the cost of this hike.
What’s truly not priced in is whether the dot plot will be more hawkish than expected, whether Waller’s tone will be tougher than expected, and whether hikes in October and December will be confirmed.
Watch the dot plot and Waller’s words, not the rate itself.
The rate decision is just the appetizer. Waller’s press conference is the main course.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Brothers, those who didn't sleep last night should understand, the heartbeat was faster than the K-line.
The CLARITY termination debate vote at 2:15 didn't pass the 60-vote threshold. They conceded 126 items earlier, and swallowed 80% of the ethical clauses, but still fell a few votes short at the last moment.
The market was ruthless: ETH fell below 2400, hitting a low of 2356.18, now back near 2401; BTC slid from 79569 down to 74896, altcoins fell even harder. My short position on Ethereum has taken profit on most of it, with the remaining set at breakeven, just watching the show.
Vote failure ≠ end of the bill, likely there will be amendments and revotes. But the geopolitical situation is more troubling: senior military officials from the US, Israel, and Arab countries met in Germany, with Iran and the Hormuz operation on the table. Regulatory expectations cooled, geopolitics heated up, so short-term sentiment is naturally fragile.
Fortunately, BTC bounced back from 74896 to 75800, with buyers stepping in below. I'm not rushing to bottom-fish or call a bear market, just watching if the rebound can hold. Pocketing profits from shorts first, leaving the rest to the market.
For those who stayed up last night waiting for the result, check in the comments: will it continue to fall, or has the bad news been fully priced in?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The load-bearing wall has cracked. It's not an issue with the exterior decorative facade, but with the main structure. 49 to 50, falling 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold, the gap isn't in the renovation budget, but that the seismic rating fundamentally failed to meet standards.
The motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act was defeated in the Senate. What does this mean? It means this blueprint hasn't even obtained a construction permit. The four contradictions we repeatedly simulated during the blueprint phase—Trump family's crypto conflicts of interest, stablecoin revenue distribution, state-level law enforcement authority, consumer protection—are all foundational geotechnical issues, not something that can be covered up later with soft furnishings. Any skyscraper, as long as its foundation piles are driven into this fault zone, settlement is only a matter of time.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000, and related stocks dropped in sync. From a structural engineering perspective, this is called resonance instability triggered by instantaneous load shedding. The market's reaction wasn't intense, indicating the main framework is still intact, but the prestress has been redistributed.
Note, this is not a final judgment. The Republicans can request a reconsideration, and there are rumors of a restart during the lame-duck session. But I want to make one thing clear: reconsideration in the construction industry is equivalent to reapplying for construction. The blueprints must be re-examined, fire safety re-verified, and structural calculations re-signed. The cycle lengthens, costs rise, and once the schedule gets out of control, what the client most often does is bypass the general contractor and directly approach administrative departments for simplified approval—this is precisely the most dangerous shift currently: legislative deadlock, and regulatory agencies possibly forcing construction through administrative rulemaking.
The load-bearing capacity of administrative rules and that of codified law are not on the same level. The former is a removable temporary steel structure; the latter is a cast-in-place concrete core tube. The compliant framework you build today might be required to be dismantled and rebuilt tomorrow under a new supervisor.
What really deserves attention now isn't the voting result, but whether the negotiation table will be reassembled. If Congress completely halts work, the market will be forced to rely on administrative interpretations as the sole pillar, and when the wind load increases, everyone will be dizzy from the sway.
As for the so-called token-backed market linkage, I just remind you: the gap between the design drawings and the deliverables is always much larger than it looks on the renderings. Those positions poured in advance around legislative expectations are now exposed on an unprotected construction surface.
49 to 50, a one-vote difference. Structurally, this vote is a stress concentration point. Once a microcrack appears at the stress concentration point, the lifespan curve of the entire building begins to be rewritten. #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 Core SatPay Status (as of 2026-09) SatPay is a key Bitcoin new bank/crypto debit card product promoted by Core DAO, developed in collaboration with payment service provider Mobilum. The core concept is: staking yields BTC/LST to borrow stablecoins to recharge debit cards; Staked assets continuously generate yield, automatically repay loans with yields, achieving "hoarding BTC while spending money, without selling Bitcoin." Timeline 1. 2025-12: Official roadmap released, positioning SatPay as Core's most important real-world revenue engine, aiming to generate income through fees, used for CORE buybacks, and building a token demand flywheel. 2. Early 2026: Planned to launch externally in the first half of 2026; Opened the waiting list, with over 20,000 waitlists, held early incentive activities (Sats airdrop, founder cards), released concept posters, but did not publicly release the official app, nor did it distribute physical cards on a large scale. 3. April 2026: Online seminar confirmed the product was still under development, required KYC, aimed at overseas users, still in testing/pending release status, with no official launch date announced. 4. May 9, 2026: The originally planned launch in the first half of the year was not fulfilled. Official blog and community updates only repeated "Development in Progress," with no publicly available version released; No on-chain verifiable SatPay contract deployment, no real user transaction data; No new clear launch date updated. Brothers, check out the latest $ETH market intelligence.
The good news is that the ETH ETF fund performance remains strong, with a single-day net inflow reaching $121 million, led by BlackRock's increased holdings. Over the past month and a half, the cumulative purchase scale has exceeded $2 billion.
At the same time, the advancement of the CLARITY Act, Ethereum's underlying quantum resistance research, and the development of privacy-focused DeFi in the ecosystem continue to send long-term construction signals.
But don't get carried away! ⚠️
Short-term risks are also not to be ignored. Before the bill vote, the whale short positions expanded from $22 million to $420 million; ETH is still suppressed in the $2500–$2600 range, futures premium has turned negative to -0.18%, and Binance stablecoin daily inflows have shrunk to about $4 million.
On-chain fund movements are also worth watching: signs of selling activity related to Lazarus have appeared, some large holders have transferred large assets to OKX, and the market is concerned about potential selling pressure; Machi has even cut more than $100 million in long positions
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates FOMC countdown, highly elastic funds moved first late at night
$BTC
Current price 75850.
After testing the low of 74896 during the day, Bitcoin did not collapse completely but pulled back to around 75800 to consolidate.
The slight rebound after a deep drop is not a reversal signal; it is highly elastic funds testing the market late at night.
Many people tend to mistake the rebound at night as a large buying entry.
You need to distinguish between two types of funds:
One is long-term funds slowly accumulating chips, the other is short-term hot money and arbitrage funds quickly making a move when liquidity is low. The latter is the so-called highly elastic funds, acting fast and not lingering, taking a little profit and running.
They are active now: smashing on breakouts, grabbing rebounds when oversold, not betting on the big trend but on short-term sentiment recovery.
Technically, the 15-minute SUPERTREND and moving averages have not truly turned upward yet. 74900 is the newly formed emotional low, and 76300-76800 is the first resistance.
Whether the rebound can go far depends not on how strong the night rally is, but on whether the buying can continue after liquidity returns during the day.
All short-term moves are just a rehearsal before the FOMC decision. Whether the rate hike will be implemented and whether the tone is hawkish or dovish are the core factors determining if this rebound is an "oversold recovery" or a "new wave starting point."
The nighttime activity can be observed, but don’t get overly excited and heavily invested. Highly elastic funds come fast and leave more decisively than anyone else.Core DAO's business on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The truth about $CORE The token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. The listed product is the BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) from third-party issuer Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), with underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify it as "Core debuting on the London Stock Exchange," which is promotional tactics and not CORE token trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: ETP (exchange-traded product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset, and Bitcoin entering the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business Logic - Valour holds real BTC, with institutions cold storage and custody; - Entrust BTC to Core network validators for staking to generate staking rewards (nominal annualized rate of about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value; investors buying this LME stock indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Opened to professional investors in September 2025; Obtained FCA license in January 2026, opening trading to ordinary UK retail investors. 3. Core plays a role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-PAI圈这出戏越来越有意思了，政府终于坐不住了，准备把科技巨头的大佬们全叫到白宫去“喝茶”。 美国众议长约翰逊提议召集7到8个AI巨头负责人，跟国会议员一块讨论安全边界。但搞笑的是，他一边喊着“不能紧急暂停AI研发，怕在跟中国的竞争中落后”，一边又让Anthropic、OpenAI、谷歌去搞什么第三方评估和行业标准。 说白了，这就是既要又要。嘴上全是安全，心里全是生意。 Anthropic的CEO还在那天天喊要放缓前沿模型迭代，但你看数据，英伟达、AMD、英特尔的资本开支根本没明确下调。更别提OpenAI还在疯狂堆算力，大家心里都门儿清，谁真停下来谁就出局。 那这事对币圈到底有啥影响？我给大家拆两层。 第一层，短期情绪传导。9月14号相关讨论一升温，芯片股英伟达、AMD、英特尔集体走弱，市场在担心大模型研发降速会拖累GPU需求和算力投入。科技股一感冒，纳斯达克就打喷嚏，加密市场作为高贝塔资产，短期情绪肯定跟着往下压。大饼卡在74000上不去，也有这部分原因。 第二层，币圈AI概念币要加速大洗牌了。传统巨头现在都要面临第三方评估、监管审查和反垄断争议，咱们币圈那些只会写白皮书、连产品都没有$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Short term: Sentiment-driven, concentrated selling pressure release
The market responded most directly with a decline. Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000, Ethereum dropped even more, and nearly 120,000 liquidations occurred across the network, totaling $670 million.
The key reason is that the expectation of "regulatory clarity" has failed. The industry invested hundreds of millions of dollars lobbying, but the bill got stuck in procedural voting due to ethical clauses and opposition from the banking sector. This expectation was originally an important logic supporting valuation; now that it's gone, leveraged longs are forced to exit.
Mid term: Institutional "bottom support" and regulatory "backfill" are two underlying themes
Despite the panic, two forces are absorbing the impact:
First, institutional funds are still flowing in. Just before and after the bill was rejected, BlackRock bought $1 billion in Bitcoin, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF still had a net inflow of $147 million that day. This indicates that large funds see this drop more as an "unfavorable news landing" opportunity rather than a signal to exit.
Second, the SEC stated it will "bypass Congress and continue to advance." The SEC Chair clearly said that regardless of whether the bill passes, the SEC will continue to push forward its own crypto regulatory agenda (Project Crypto). This means the regulatory vacuum may not be as long as imagined, and some rule-making authority still lies with the regulatory agencies
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 $BTC The last time there was such an opportunity was in 2023
The same pattern appeared once at the beginning of 2023
This chart has two parts. The top shows the price and the STH cost basis, the bottom shows the STH-MVRV, which is the short-term holders' unrealized profit multiple, with several standard deviation bands
The two circled positions have exactly the same pattern. The price was suppressed by the STH cost line for a long time during the bear market, then at some point broke above it, and the two lines ran side by side horizontally, with the cost line turning from falling to flat, then slowly rising. The left circle is early 2023, followed by a complete bull market. The right circle is now
The line below is also cooperating. The STH-MVRV recently surged above 1.15, then fell back these days, just touching the mean line.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 6. Overall Direction Judgment
Currently, SOL is struggling around $103. The key support below is at $97.37; if broken, an 11% downside potential will be unlocked. The $103.35 level has already shifted from support to resistance.
But more important than the technicals is this: this round of sharp decline exposes structural cracks in Solana's fundamental value. 95% of revenue depends on Meme, and after Meme's decline, revenue plummeted by 87%; validators are highly concentrated, and a single routing error could push the network close to finality disruption; the core narrative of "internet capital markets" is being dismantled by Hyperliquid.
Standard Chartered Bank lowered its year-end target price for SOL from $310 to $250 in February. But the current market pricing logic is clear: when your revenue story doesn't hold up, your institutional funds are withdrawing, and your core narrative is being taken away, a $250 target price seems overly optimistic.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Fear and Greed Index: 69, in the Greed zone.
BTC market dominance: 58.4%, capital is desperately concentrating on Bitcoin.
Altcoin season index: 36. What does it mean? The altcoin grass hasn’t even sprouted yet.
BTC ETF net outflow in the past week: $463 million, the first weekly net outflow since June. ARK and Grayscale contributed a combined $371 million, BlackRock remained flat.
The Greed index says "charge," ETF funds say "withdraw."
Who is lying?
This is typical "defensive greed."
Retail sentiment isn’t bad, even a bit of FOMO—fear of missing out. But look closely at where the money is going: not rushing into altcoins, but hiding in BTC. The altcoin season index at 36 indicates capital’s attitude toward high-risk assets is "keep a respectful distance."
Everyone wants to stay in the game but dares not touch riskier assets.
It’s like a party where everyone is still in the room, but their hands are already on the door handle.
This structure is extremely sensitive to interest rate hikes.
At 2 AM tonight, the FOMC rate decision.
CME pricing shows a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
75% probability of another hike in December.
10-year US Treasury yield: approaching 5%.
Oil price: over $100.
August CPI year-over-year: 3.4%.
The market has already priced in rate hikes as the baseline scenario. The question now isn’t "whether to hike," but how many times the dot plot will show. TD Securities says "three times: September, October, and January next year"; ING says "a recalibration, not a continuous hiking cycle"; institutions generally expect the median dot plot to rise to 4.1%, implying one more hike this year.
Huge divergence. The real battlefield is at Powell’s press conference.
Here’s the contradiction.
With rate hike expectations so full, BTC is still holding firm in the 75,000 to 77,000 range, but ETF funds are voting with their feet and withdrawing. Wintermute’s OTC trader put it bluntly: BTC ETF weekly net outflow for the first time since June, the market turning neutral before the rate hike.
In plain language: smart money is reducing positions, retail is still in.
Crypto market down 32.7% year-over-year, a lot of tightening policies are already priced in. What does this mean? If the rate hike lands and the subsequent path is mild, a short-covering rebound is possible. But if the dot plot confirms three hikes, the current 75,000 level is not safe.
Before the rate hike night, ask yourself one question: are you here to trade or to gamble?
People at a Greed index of 69 often cut losses when the Fear index hits 30.
Don’t be that person.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Is the Federal Reserve's rate hike this time really right for the economy?
I think we can't rush to conclusions yet.
Raising rates can indeed suppress demand and curb inflation, but the problem is that the current inflation is not entirely due to overheated demand.
Rising oil prices, energy costs, and fiscal deficits are issues that can't be solved by just raising rates by 25 basis points.
So the real contradiction is:
Which is greater—the damage rate hikes do to the economy, or their suppression of inflation?
Politically, however, this rate hike is very clear.
It is meant to prove to the market:
The Federal Reserve will not yield due to pressure from U.S. debt, will not yield because of rising fiscal financing costs, and certainly will not change direction just because Trump demands a rate cut.
Independence must be maintained.
But the question is—
Is one rate hike enough to prove independence, or do many consecutive hikes need to happen?
If high oil prices persist, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and rate hikes continue, the economy will face not just a single pressure but continuous squeezing.
$BTC and $ETH will of course be hit first by liquidity tightening in the short term.
But what the market really trades is often not the "rate hike" itself, but when the rate hike cycle will end.
If this rate hike is already near the end, then BTC may trade liquidity inflection points early, while ETH could see stronger capital rotation after risk appetite recovers.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Why do I still believe BTC will recover upward in the future?
$BTC Recently, it has fallen back to the 76,000-77,000 range. The market looks weak in the short term, but I still favor upside opportunities in the future.
Currently, external pressure is mounting: US Treasury yields remain high, expectations for rate hikes are strong, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are causing disturbances. Logically, with multiple negative factors resonating together, BTC should have plunged deeply.
However, since the pullback from 82,000, there has been no unilateral breakout or sharp drop. Each time it dips, funds support the bottom, indicating real buying pressure below.
Looking at ETF funds, after a series of outflows in the previous period, net inflows quickly returned. Although capital sentiment fluctuated repeatedly, it had not entered a phase of sustained large-scale withdrawals.
Going forward, two conditions only need to be met: ETFs returning to stable net inflows, U.S. Treasury yields no longer surging, and BTC once again challenging the 80,000 mark is ready.
When will the bullish logic be overturned?
Only when the price effectively breaks downward, combined with the ETF initiating sustained large outflows, and the resonance of these two signals, is a complete shift in approach necessary.
A flood of negative news but no price drops sometimes reflects the resilience of the bulls.
Do you think the acceptance is effective, or just a facade before the storm? #本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes be implemented? #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 As soon as I opened my eyes, the market was glaringly red, with BTC, ETH, and ZEC all pulling back. BTC at 75,881, down 0.82%. After surging from 63,000 to 80,000 in August, the 80,000 to 82,000 range has been a tough barrier to break. Now it has retreated to 76,000-77,000 to find support. Market dominance is 58.5%, still the benchmark. The Fed just finished its rate meeting, and the Clarity Act adds more chaos. Short term is just choppy digestion; only a heavy volume break below 76,000 should raise alarms.
ETH at 2,404, down 0.83%, moving in sync with BTC. ETFs still have inflows, but ETH/BTC is relatively weak. To push above 2,600+, BTC needs to stabilize and show volume first. 2,400 is the key dividing line between bulls and bears.
SOL at 97.16, down 2.22%, true to its high Beta nature—rises sharply but falls fast too. Losing 100 shakes sentiment. On-chain activity and ETF narratives remain intact. Short term, watch if 95-100 can form a bottom; otherwise, it will follow the market's slow decline.
ZEC at 1,123, relatively the most resilient. The 1,050-1,080 range is the defense line; holding above 1,200 could open new targets. After a round of leveraged washout, its volatility will be crazier than the top three coins.
Total market cap is 2.59 trillion, down 2.86%. Trading volume has actually increased, a normal pullback after a low-volume rally. If BTC doesn't break below 76,000, altcoins will struggle to stand alone; ZEC is strong in phases, SOL is elastic but fragile. Short term, watch support levels and avoid chasing highs. Personal opinion, not financial advice; manage your own positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 5. Competitors stab in the back, the narrative is being dissected
What is the biggest story of SOL? "Internet capital market" — putting all assets on-chain to replace traditional exchanges.
But the reality is, the best at doing this is not Solana.
Hyperliquid — a vertical Layer 1 designed specifically for financial trading — is stealing this script. Perpetual contract trading is migrating from centralized exchanges to on-chain, and the biggest beneficiary of this trend is not Solana. Hyperliquid has evolved into a complete financial infrastructure network, attracting more and more capital and traders.
Solana's "Internet capital market" vision is being eroded by a more focused, more vertical competitor. When a general-purpose public chain finds itself losing core application scenarios to a specialized public chain, its valuation logic needs to be reexamined. $SOL $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 On September 16, OKB hovered between $113.5 and $116, with small ups and downs in 24 hours, still up about 7% over 7 days, and up 21% over 30 days. This is a completely different vibe compared to BTC's stalemate at 76,000 and SOL's hundred-dollar battle. While others are betting on macro factors, OKB is "reassessing what kind of asset it is": no longer just a fee discount coupon, but a 21 million hard cap + X Layer native Gas + OKX Pay / RWA / European USDC margin-backed exchange-related on-chain asset.
The foundation of this OKB round is very clean: a one-time burn of about 65.25 million tokens in 2025, total supply locked at 21 million, removal of additional issuance and manual burns, extremely thin circulating supply. When buying pressure comes, its elasticity is wilder than BNB, yet selling pressure is lighter than older platform tokens. But don’t be brainwashed by the "21 million like BTC" narrative—X Layer Gas costs near zero, burning only a few cents per transaction. What truly supports the valuation is X Layer TVL (about 230 million), real transaction volume from Pay, how much Aave/Uniswap/Pendle has migrated over, and how far OKX’s compliance licenses have expanded—not the mere "21 million" figure itself.Bitcoin has already entered a region historically associated with lower entry risk and strong long-term asymmetry.
However, according to the Sharpe Ratio, this phase still requires significant resilience, as current returns remain poor relative to the level of volatility being assumed.