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$MMT is slightly bearish in the short term, wait for a rebound to decide. Every bearish candle when MMT drops seems to be shouting "cheap." But without a rebound point, cheap can get even cheaper. Trading plan: short-term bearish, just wait for rebound pressure or a break of the low. Trading advice: consider pressure on rebound at 0.1322–0.1338; if it weakens directly, follow the trend below 0.1292. Stop loss at 0.1358, take profit first at 0.1191, then at 0.1101. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Ethereum Crash: Stop Saying "Shakeout"—This Is a Faith Liquidation
Conclusion first: This round of ETH's plunge is not a pit caused by macroeconomic negative factors, but a chain reaction from "expectation reversal" to "on-chain bleeding" to "narrative collapse."
If you're still waiting for a rebound, first look at these numbers.
1. That 0.1% in CPI was just the fuse
On September 12, the US core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, 0.1% higher than expected. That 0.1% pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 80%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield nearly hit 5%. On that day, $674 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with 94,000 people liquidated. ETH alone accounted for $215 million in short liquidations and $96.73 million in long liquidations—both longs and shorts got hit; no one escaped.
2. On-chain data speaks
In the week before the crash, over 120,000 ETH were withdrawn from staking contracts, with significant reductions by whale addresses. Gas fees dropped to their lowest point of the year, and on-chain activity shrank. This is not a shakeout; it's capital voting with its feet.
3. The collapse of faith is the core issue
ETF expectations dashed, Layer 2 draining the main chain, narrative in transition—ETH has shifted from an "ultrasound currency" to an "inflation asset." When the community starts debating whether Ethereum has a future, the price is just the outcome.
Don't bottom-fish; first think clearly: What do you really believe in, the technology or the story?
$ETH $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 BTC, ETH, UNI — which position should be cut first after the bill was rejected?
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
Reducing positions after the bill rejection is like defusing a bomb. Among $BTC, $ETH, and $UNI, you have to cut the most dangerous one first.
BTC rebounds at a low of 74,910, with strong support at 75,000, so it’s the last to be cut, kept as ballast; ETH plunged 8%, broke through 2,400, the most fragile, but it has already fallen a lot and may have a short-term oversold rebound, so it depends — if BTC holds 75,000, ETH can be kept to bet on a rebound; if it breaks 75,000, then reduce it; UNI, a veteran DeFi token with holders but high beta, faces regulatory vacuum hitting DeFi expectations after the bill rejection, with no short-term catalyst, so it’s the one to cut first, don’t bet on its rebound.
If the upcoming rate decision is dovish and BTC holds 75,000, ETH and UNI will have oversold rebounds; if it’s hawkish and BTC breaks 75,000, UNI will be cut first, followed by ETH, while BTC will bear the fall. Cut the uncatalyzed UNI first, then watch the oversold ETH, and finally keep the stable BTC. After the negative news settles, don’t put your positions on rootless DeFi coins.ETH will have a protocol developer AMA tonight at 22:00, where the core discussion has shifted from the next upgrade to the quantum-resistant roadmap for 2029.
The Ethereum Foundation has set a very firm goal: by December 2029, the execution, consensus, and data layers will all have quantum-resistant capabilities. The upcoming Hegotá upgrade is only responsible for opening the first phase, and its scope is actually narrowing, focusing on FOCIL and Frames. The former improves the guarantee that transactions are included in blocks, while the latter enables programmable account verification and fee payments, also leaving interfaces for future signature scheme replacements.
I won’t buy more ETH just because of an AMA. Tonight, I’m only watching to see if the team will continue to narrow the scope of Hegotá and whether Frames and FOCIL can maintain their priority. No matter how far the technical roadmap goes, delivering this phase on time is what counts.
Source: Ethereum Foundation. Personal record, not investment advice. $ETH $SOL is high beta L1: follow BTC, then fees, stablecoin float, and staking flows. Strong price with weak activity is a warning.
$SUPRA is thin infra/AI-oracle beta. Narrative is speed; liquidity is the real risk. Treat it as a catalyst coin.
$ENA tracks Ethena’s USDe stack. Supply, yield quality, fee-switch/buybacks, and unlocks matter more than a green day.
NFA. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, and the US fiscal situation is entering a troublesome feedback loop.
The higher the yield, the more interest new government bonds need to pay; the higher the interest expenses, the harder it is to narrow the fiscal deficit; the larger the deficit, the more bonds the Treasury has to issue. Seeing the continued increase in supply, the market demands higher yields to take them on. If this cycle continues, it will be difficult to reverse with just a few buybacks.
It won't trigger a crisis in a single day, but it will gradually squeeze the government's policy space. More budget spent on interest means less room for infrastructure, social programs, and crisis relief. Meanwhile, businesses and residents will also face higher mortgage, auto loan, and bond issuance costs.
The irony is that rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, preventing the Federal Reserve from easing; high interest rates accelerate the growth of fiscal interest expenses. Energy, monetary policy, and government debt are amplifying each other.
5% is not a mysterious technical threshold but more like a payment reminder from the market to the Treasury. The real issue is not whether it briefly dips below 5% today, but that borrowing will become increasingly expensive every time in the future.
#10年期美债收益率突破5% A #whale just made a $65M decision while everyone else was de-risking.
One wallet sold 866.1 $BTC ($65.42M) and rotated the entire proceeds into 26,924 $ETH , averaging $2,403.
The #timing is the story: $ETH is down harder than BTC while leveraged longs are being erased across the market.
This wasn’t #diversification. It was a full-size rotation from one major crypto asset into another.Brothers, the FOMC results will be announced early tomorrow morning, and the market is currently pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike. But what we really need to worry about is not whether there will be a hike, but whether the Federal Reserve will raise by 50 basis points.
The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point increase, pushing the rate range to 3.75% to 4%. But if the Fed decides to go hard and directly raise by 50 basis points, that would be a completely different scenario. Why is this possible? Goldman Sachs itself said that the current warming of expectations is because the Fed is unwilling to reverse market pricing. In other words, the Fed is already trapped by the market, and if it wants to regain control, raising by 50 basis points is the harshest move.
If it really raises by 50 basis points, $BTC and Ethereum will crash in the short term; the 75,000 level won't hold, and the next support levels would be 72,000 or even 70,000. Ethereum $ETH already has staking yields that can't compete with U.S. Treasuries, and with a 50 basis point hike, holding costs will be even higher, so its decline will be deeper than Bitcoin's. But gold $XAUT is different—the harsher the hike, the more the U.S. dollar's credit is damaged, and central bank buying will only intensify, making any pullback a buying opportunity.
Conversely, if the hike is only 25 basis points and the statement leans dovish, that means the bad news is fully priced in. Bitcoin and Ethereum might rebound, but the strength of the rebound depends on whether ETF funds are willing to return. Currently, ETFs have continuous net outflows, and without institutional return, any rebound will be weak.
So the key point early tomorrow morning is not whether there will be a hike, but how much, and how the dot plot will be drawn. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ @OKX星球 I remember the worst loss I ever had was during these "bearish bias but no breakdown" moments.
At that time, BTC was hovering around 76000, and I thought "it has dropped so much, it should rise now," so I heavily went long. But then a bearish candle smashed it down to around 74896, I panicked and sold at the lowest point. Later I understood: bearish bias is bearish bias, the longer it grinds, the harder it falls.
Now BTC is at 75860, resistance at 77699, support at 74896, still bearish. This time I remembered: in a bearish trend, going long must wait for stabilization, you can’t bottom-fish based on feeling.
Plan: if 74896 stabilizes, lightly go long with 5000U, stop loss at 74500; if it rebounds above 77699, lightly go short. Always use stop loss, no holding losing positions.
Lost 200,000U and recovering, won’t fall into the same trap twice. $BTC #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh what Beisent said in Congress last night? Pharaoh says directly, this Treasury Secretary was interrupted by protesters during his opening remarks, yet stubbornly acted as a "human shield" for Trump's economic policies, mouth full of ideology but mind full of calculations.
Let's start with the most exciting part. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.04%, hitting a new high since 2007. When asked about this, Beisent immediately blamed it on "global issues," saying oil prices rose, AI is taking money, global bond markets are falling, basically it's not America's fault.
Then comes the slickest move. Trump proposed sending every American adult a $5,000 check, with a total cost of about 1.35 trillion. Beisent stated on the spot, "I support it, and it won't increase the deficit." How to achieve this? He didn't say. Even Pharaoh's pyramid isn't this mysterious.
The situation with the yen is even more ridiculous. The US Treasury claimed to have teamed up with Japan to "save the yen," but Beisent himself admitted—the US only spent a "symbolic" amount, less than $1 billion, while Japan paid 96.4 billion. He added: this operation even "earned tens of millions" for the US. Spending little to act big, and even snagging some profit on the side, this calculation is sharper than Pharaoh's camels.
For Bitcoin, Beisent didn't mention crypto at all during the whole session, but the signal is clear—the fiscal deficit can't be controlled, US Treasury yields won't come down, with a 5% risk-free return right there, why would funds flow into high-risk assets?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $PONS Don't be fooled by PONS's spot buying; the contract main force is frantically retreating
Looking at PONS data today, there are several extremely conflicting signals.
First
Contract funds are flowing out across the board, 1.4 million U in 12 hours, 920,000 U in 8 hours.
But on the spot side, nearly 1 million U flowed in over 4 and 8 hours.
Contracts are running away, spot is buying, I've seen this script too many times.
Second
Liquidation data. In 1 hour, short positions liquidated 16,000, long positions 34,000;
In 4 hours, shorts liquidated 19,000, longs 126,000.
Shorts have been unscathed in this recent drop, longs are being slaughtered one-sidedly.
Third
Long-short ratio. Retail long-short ratio is 1.5, large holders' long-short ratio is 2.4288.
Large holders are extremely crowded, this is a typical "overloaded vehicle." The main force will not pump the price unless they wash out these large holders' long positions.
Fundamentally, PONS is indeed strong, but short-term capital and technical aspects are all bearish signals.
$0.55 is the lifeline; if broken, look for $0.50. Don't bet on a reversal in a downtrend; wait for contract funds to flow back before considering.
$PONS #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC CLARITY 49-50 (needs 60) — 11 votes short
Not dead, but 2026 nearly impossible
Reaction:
BTC $75,039 low → $75,990 now
ETH $2,407
SOL $97.4
Liquidations $770M, longs rekt
Why alts worse than BTC?
BTC = ETF + regulatory clarity
Alts = needed CLARITY to define SEC vs CFTC
No bill = no alt institutional wave
$BTC $ETH $SOL#Brothers, to be honest, $ZEC really has strong fundamentals, and the whales are truly impressive! While others have fallen, it keeps pushing upward relentlessly.
But strong as it is, the latest signals are quite off. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun directly criticized, saying that ZEC's 2200% surge and market cap hitting 19.48 billion are purely a "narrative short squeeze driven by exchange listings and speculative momentum," with metrics like shielded transaction adoption, daily active addresses, and developer activity all failing to keep pace with the price.
Looking at the real capital flow, ZEC futures open interest dropped about 20% within 24 hours, with roughly $17.2 million in positions liquidated. The previous surge to $1250 was mainly pushed by $34.5 million in short liquidations. Now, the short fuel is nearly burned out, and leveraged funds are retreating.
There's another detail worth noting. Around September 13, a whale moved 12,800 ZEC (worth $13.65 million) from Binance, OKX, Kraken, and Gate exchanges to a brand-new address. Large holders moving chips off exchanges at highs is a way to avoid short-term selling pressure.
Technically, ZEC is consolidating near 1112, with strong resistance at 1150 above and key support at 1050 below. If the rate hike lands hawkishly, high-beta privacy coins will face heavier pressure and may retest lows.
I'm holding my short positions, waiting for the rate hike to land.
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Interest rate hike landing might instead become a "bad news fully priced in" event for crypto
Everyone is waiting for the same thing: the rate hike crashing the market.
Market consensus is highly unified — the Federal Reserve is very likely to raise rates by 25BP today, liquidity continues to tighten, and $BTC is expected to fall further. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, BTC has dropped from $82,163 at the start of the month to around $76,000, and sentiment has already priced in pessimism in advance.
But precisely because "everyone knows," this event is unlikely to be a surprise anymore.
A Reuters survey shows that out of 101 economists, 86 expect a 25BP rate hike. Such concentrated expectations mean the market has long priced in this rate hike. What can truly trigger a decline is not the rate hike itself, but an unexpected surprise — a more hawkish dot plot, signals of consecutive hikes, or Powell’s words about "higher for longer."
If today is just a normal rate hike without additional hawkish guidance, then for the market it means "bad news fully priced in." At that time, short sellers covering and cautious funds entering could actually push BTC to rebound. Too many are waiting for a crash after the rate hike, but often it just doesn’t happen.
This doesn’t mean the rate hike turns into good news, but rather: when something has been traded for too long and too fully, its marginal impact diminishes. The market is always searching for the gap between expectations and reality, and current expectations are extremely one-sided.
Normal rate hike = short-term rebound, unexpectedly hawkish = final drop. The real risk is not the rate hike itself, but that everyone is on the same side. $ETH $ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Mid-term intelligence guy is here.
Last night, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act got stuck, and the crypto community exploded — this thing was originally seen as the key vote setting the regulatory tone for BTC and ETH, but the two parties bickered, so short-term funds fled first.
For the short term, don’t listen to the bulls saying "a delay in good news doesn’t mean the good news is gone," nor believe the bears saying "the bill is dead, the bull market is over."
From a mid-term perspective, if CLARITY passes, $ETH benefits more than $BTC — it fears "securities classification" the most, and the bill’s enactment means removing that risk;
The intelligence guy’s one sentence — when the news is chaotic, don’t chase emotions, hold your position and wait for clarity.Honestly, BTC is at 75860 now, leaning bearish, and I'm quite speechless.
It’s frustrating when it falls without relief, and the rebound is weak and powerless, stuck in the middle wearing you down. This kind of market is the worst: you see it rising and chase in, only to be pushed back; you see it falling and short, but fear a sudden spike.
I used to get repeatedly hit in this kind of market, losing 200,000 U just like that. Now I’ve learned: I don’t make a move unless it’s the right spot.
My positions: try short above 77699 on the rebound, try long if it stabilizes at 74896, otherwise stay out and watch. Each trade 5000 U, always with stop loss, no holding losing positions.
The market wears you down, but I’m more patient than it. $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $AAOI After this round of pullback, it has started to re-enter my watchlist.
Currently, the stock price is at $95.76, with a single-day drop of about 9.1% today, but looking at the year-to-date, the cumulative increase is still around 175%.
The demand for 800G / 1.6T high-speed optical modules in AI data centers remains the core market focus. However, on the other hand, concerns about potential dilution and insider selling have clearly cooled short-term sentiment.
This stock is really volatile; a sharp drop does not mean an immediate reversal. First, observe the volume, price, and subsequent capital attitude.
I will continue to keep an eye on it; both opportunities and risks need to be clearly understood. DYOR.
#AAOI #RWA #FOMC #AI芯片 #数据中心 #光模块$BTC "Crypto Clarity Act" Fails, Bitcoin $75,800 Tug-of-War Begins
On the macro front, last night the U.S. Senate failed to advance the "Crypto Clarity Act" with a 50:49 vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold, meaning a comprehensive regulatory framework in 2026 is basically off the table. After the news broke, the crypto market liquidated over $300 million within 20 minutes, and Bitcoin briefly dipped to $74,965. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's September FOMC is as high as 87%-92%, with core CPI holding steady at a high 2.4%, and macro tightening pressure continues to suppress risk assets.
On the chart, BTC shows clear support resilience around 75,800, a key defense level verified multiple times previously. It has slightly rebounded from the low to above 75,800, representing a "dent rather than a break." However, the rebound is weak, with short-term resistance in the 77,000-77,600 range. Coupled with the approaching FOMC decision and low trading volume, both bulls and bears are waiting for direction.
Strategically, light long positions can be taken in the 75,800-75,300 range with stop loss below 75,000; if the FOMC signals a more hawkish stance than expected and breaks below 75,000, then watch for deeper retracement support at 72,000-71,000.
In altcoins, ZEC has shown independent strength, holding the 1,040 low and steadily rising above 1,150, relatively resistant amid the broad decline, worth keeping an eye on.
Remember: Until macro uncertainty is resolved, position sizing is the lifeline.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC Daytime Sandisk and SOL Strategy Sharing:
$SOL: Today SOL followed BTC in a downward trend, currently priced at 97.1. All moving averages are above the price, creating a clear suppressive effect, and the bulls' counterattack strength is weak.
The key level is today's low at 95.7, which is also a short-term support; if broken, look for 93-92. On the upside, 101.5 is today's high, and only a volume-backed hold above this level offers a chance to target 105.
Currently stuck in the middle, neither up nor down, combined with Thursday early morning's interest rate decision, we won't speculate and will wait for it to move on its own.
$SNDK: Our short position opened at 1735 on Friday was fully closed with profit at 1560. From the recent price action, after bottoming and rebounding at 1507, followed by repeated consolidation, this round of decline is basically over.
Going forward, we will mainly focus on low-level long positions. Light long entries can be tried on pullbacks to 1515-1530. Those already holding long positions should hold their base positions and continue to look higher.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 Yesterday I wrote an observation saying that after the gold CPI, the price fell from 4398 to 4273, but the OI surged +27% over five days, hitting a recent high—leveraged funds are back, but the capital flow hasn't followed, so I'm holding an empty position waiting for a signal. Today’s market update brings a new change worth discussing. Price: rebounded from 4273 to 4334 but did not surpass EMA50. Today (9-16) 13:30 snapshot: XAUUSDT current price 4334, about 1.4% rebound from yesterday’s 4273. The rebound is good, but looking at the position: EMA50 is at 4365, the current price is still 0.7% below it. EMA20 is at 4380, EMA200 at 4406, all three moving averages are still pressing down from above. Since listing, the range has been 3948 to 5625, currently at a low about 23%. In other words, yesterday’s oversold rebound continued today, but it hasn’t even touched the first key moving average. The short-term bearish structure remains unchanged. ## New change: OI surged then cooled off Yesterday’s biggest question was OI: +27% over five days, with a single day jump of +17% on the last day, looking like someone was heavily leveraged in a showdown. Looking again today, this number dropped to +12%. This means: the leveraged funds’ "surge" yesterday did not continue today; some positions are retreating or being closed out. Price rebounds while leverage cools down, which usually has two interpretations: - The opposing side gave up and is clearing positions; - Or the funds pushing the price up themselves lack confidence$GRVT Don't blindly bottom-fish GRVT; the data shows that whales have no intention to pump the price
Whale positions inverted: retail long-short ratio is 1.11 (Binance) and 1.26 (OKX), retail investors are still biased long.
But the whale long-short ratio is only 0.7366, well below 1. This indicates whale funds are firmly shorting or hedging, while retail investors are blindly taking the risk.
Fundamental background: GRVT is a project that only had its TGE at the end of July (backed by on-chain Goldman Sachs and ZKsync), with a circulating supply of only 11.4%, and it has dropped nearly 40% in 30 days. The selling pressure from upcoming airdrop unlocks looms overhead.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC $ETH Crypto collapsing, bill didn't pass... Beijing time early hours today, much-anticipated CLARITY bill stuck at Senate door. Result: 49 for, 50 against, needs 60 — short by 11 votes. Not final veto, bill not legally dead, but little time left in Congress this year, pushing in 2026 very difficult. No wonder funds fled first. BTC daily low $75,039, now $75,990; ETH back to $2,407; SOL dropped to $97.4. 24h total liquidation ~$770M, longs hardest hit. Hardest hit is still altcoins. BTC has spot ETF +Is the crypto market about to collapse?
CLARITY didn't pass, and $BTC even briefly dropped below $75,000.
But what I think is most worth watching is not this voting failure itself, but a timing point:
Before the official results came out, BTC had already started to fall.
So the question is—did the market already price in the "voting obstruction"?
I don't think it means someone knew the news in advance. BTC was already weak, and the market might have just been trading on the expectation of failure ahead of time. The final failure of CLARITY seems more like a reason for the bears to keep pushing the price down.
In the short term, this will definitely hurt regulatory expectations for Crypto, but I don't think a single procedural voting failure can change the overall development direction of the crypto industry.
Don't forget that BTC spot ETFs weren't a smooth ride either; they also went through rejections, lawsuits, and repeated battles before finally landing.
So I still lean toward the view that the Crypto regulatory framework will continue to move forward, but when and in what form CLARITY will be reintroduced still needs to be observed.
As for the market, my judgment that we are still in the early stages of a bull market hasn't changed.
So my approach is simple: patiently hold spot assets, and for coins with real long-term value, continue to buy in batches on dips.
The more panic in the market, the more willing I am to slowly accumulate at low prices.
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
$ETH $OKB 1/ The Saudi East-West pipeline was bombed. This pipeline transports 7 million barrels of oil per day and is Saudi Arabia's only lifeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The Yanbu port inventory can only last 8 days.
Brent futures are at $107, and the European physical benchmark Dated Brent has surged to $122. Last week, the US Central Command commander convened a closed-door meeting in Germany with Israeli and Arab military officials to discuss war with Iran and the security of Hormuz shipping — even the military is preparing for war.
Oil prices haven't just "risen." They've "been cut off."
2/ Oil prices → inflation → interest rate hikes, this chain is locked in.
August core CPI was 0.3%, exceeding expectations, and PPI year-on-year was 5.4%. CME data shows a 92.4% probability of a Fed rate hike in September and a 44% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point hike in October.
BTC dropped from 82K to 75K, falling over 4% in 24 hours, with 120,000 liquidations. This isn't a problem with crypto itself. It's being crushed by macroeconomic forces.
3/ Don't just look at BTC. The real culprit is the US Treasury market.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.35%, a 19-year high. The 10-year yield is approaching 5%.
Global risk-free rates are soaring, rewriting valuation models for all risk assets. When you can get over 5% risk-free yield from US Treasuries, why put money into BTC with 60% volatility?
BTC isn't being hit by the Middle East; it's being pressured by US Treasury yields.
4/ The CLARITY Act, 49:50, failed.
It didn't reach the 60-vote procedural threshold. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted: "We can't wait for Congress anymore."
What does this mean? BlackRock and others can only go overseas, slowing their entry speed by at least half a year. This isn't just a "bill failing to pass," it's the entire industry's compliance clock being slowed.
Ironically — BlackRock's IBIT has increased its Bitcoin holdings by $1.08 billion in the past 20 days, raising its position to about 785,000 BTC. Retail investors are liquidating, institutions are bottom-fishing. Two destinies on the same candlestick.
5/ Short-term conclusion: 76K is the last defense line for bulls.
Around 76,000, there are whales actively buying at 77,600. But oil prices above 108 mean September CPI will likely continue to explode, and the probability of multiple rate hikes is rising.
At this point, reducing leverage is more important than bottom-fishing. Preserving your base position is more important than adding to it.
Wait for the panic liquidation after rate hikes — that will be the real opportunity.
$BTC $BZ $CL #中东能源风险推高油价 September 15, Washington. The Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.
The result was 49 in favor, 50 against. Ten votes short of the 60-vote threshold. The bill failed to enter formal consideration.
On the same day, news came from the direction of Tehran: the east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was attacked and shut down, and a ship in the Strait of Hormuz was hit and caught fire. Brent crude stood at $108.
Washington closed one door, while Tehran and Riyadh welded shut the windows.
First blow: regulation.
The CLARITY Act had been tossed around for months, with bipartisan negotiations and multiple revisions. What blocked it was not the technical details of crypto regulation, but the conflict of interest involving the Trump family's crypto business. Democrats wanted to add ethical clauses, Republicans said to push forward first and discuss later. It deadlocked.
Then came this vote. 49:50, it didn’t pass.
Coinbase CEO Armstrong tweeted heavily: "Congress can’t wait any longer." He said the SEC and CFTC have tools to set rules under existing authority and are expected to take serious action.
Ripple CEO Garlinghouse also spoke out, saying politely: "Even if the bill fails, crypto will not disappear."
But politeness aside, Congress is about to recess for the November midterm elections, leaving very limited room for the bill to be pushed again in the short term. On Polymarket, the probability of CLARITY becoming law has dropped to 5%.
Looking back five months later, what you thought was "regulatory uncertainty" today is actually the most certain thing for the next few years.
Second blow: macro.
The east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was shut down after an Iraqi drone attack. This pipeline transports 7 million barrels per day, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, and is the most important buffer when Gulf shipping lanes are under pressure. Now it’s stopped. Riyadh has not given a restart timetable.
Brent crude jumped to $108. Bernstein analysts are already shouting: oil prices could surge to $120 to $150.
Then what?
US August CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI month-over-month 0.3%, higher than expected, marking the largest monthly increase since April. The energy index rose 2.1% month-over-month, with gasoline contributing more than one-third of the monthly CPI increase.
CME FedWatch: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is approaching 90%.
Goldman Sachs changed its forecast from "no change" to "rate hike in September." JPMorgan changed to one hike in September and one in December. HSBC also revised its forecast.
The market-priced federal funds rate will rise to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first rate hike in this cycle.
Oil prices rose, inflation returned, the Fed is going to raise rates. Crypto liquidity will be drained one more layer.
After the CLARITY vote result was announced, BTC dropped from around 79,000 to below 75,500, with a 24-hour maximum drop of about $5,000. Over $300 million in long positions were liquidated. Coinbase shares fell over 9%, Circle over 12%.
The stock side fell two to three times more than the crypto side. Why? Because Coinbase and Circle’s valuations included a whole "regulatory dividend" expectation. CLARITY died, and that premium went straight to zero.
BTC doesn’t have that premium, so it fell the least.
But that doesn’t mean it’s fine. The real impact is yet to come—the rate hikes will land, risk assets will collectively come under pressure, and crypto will be no exception.
A deeper issue: institutions are waiting, but can’t wait any longer.
DTCC, together with BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and over 50 other institutions, is already conducting live trading of tokenized securities. Nasdaq has received SEC approval to pilot tokenized stock trading. Ripple Prime has also joined DTCC’s tokenization working group.
These institutions don’t need CLARITY to get on-chain. But they need CLARITY to launch products compliantly and at scale in the US.
What does the shelving of CLARITY mean? They can only detour overseas or wait for SEC case-by-case approvals. Entry speed will be at least six months to a year slower.
Meanwhile, Washington’s political energy will be completely absorbed by inflation and oil prices. As the Fed is forced to raise rates to combat energy inflation, crypto legislation’s priority will continue to fall.
The crypto industry is being abandoned simultaneously by Washington and Wall Street.
CLARITY is dead. Oil prices are up. The Fed is going to raise rates.
But precisely at such moments—
The real builders will stay.
Those who rushed in just because of regulatory expectations never belonged here.
$BTC $BZ $CL #中东能源风险推高油价 📉$$ETH Latest Trend: Bill Setback Triggers Decline
Key Events
In the early hours of September 16, the U.S. Senate procedural vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" failed to reach the 60-vote threshold with 50 in favor and 49 against, marking a major setback for regulatory framework development. ETH briefly fell below $2400.
Market Data
Currently, ETH is priced around $2404, down 0.80% in 24 hours, fluctuating between $2380 and $2520. The long-short structure is torn: the large holders' long-short ratio is as high as 2.26 and rising, indicating crowded longs; retail investors' long-short ratio is only 0.4754, quickly exiting positions. Institutional longs have lost counterparties, making downside risk prone to a cascade.
Key Levels
Resistance above at $2550 (50-week moving average, suppressing rebounds three times since August); first support below at $2380, with over $1.21 billion in long positions below $2405 awaiting liquidation.
Conclusion
The bill's failure is now a fact, and the market is digesting the negative news. It is not advisable to bottom-fish in the short term; focus on whether ETH can stabilize near $2380.
$BTC
$SOL
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC holding up better than ETH and SOL is relative resilience, not a strong market. All three are down, with the larger losses outside BTC pointing to weaker appetite for risk. With the FOMC call and oil risk in focus, I read this as a defensive market rather than a convincing case for a rebound.
Just my read, not advice.Before the rate decision hits, I’d rather lock in some profit than watch green PnL turn into another unrealized number. Paper gains don’t pay. Realized gains do. $ETH Capital is still flowing quietly, and if rates stay unchanged, risk assets could get another catalyst. But I’m not chasing the first candle—let the market confirm the move. My approach: reduce unnecessary risk, keep liquidity ready, and let volatility create the next opportunity. Patience isn’t doing nothing. It’s waiting for the rYesterday morning I woke up and checked $CP, $TRUMP and $DOGE. They had bounced close to my entry, but I was still slightly underwater. I told myself: "I'll check again later. Maybe the next move gets me back to breakeven." Then I fell asleep. 🙃 When I came back, the market had moved against the longs again. Instead of cutting the positions according to my original plan, I kept waiting for one more rebound. That small decision turned a manageable loss into a much larger one. What I originally wBrothers, $ETH has crashed to this terrible state, and you can't blame anyone else; it's a double whammy of capital and policy.
First, let's look at the latest news. In the early hours of September 16, the US Senate held a procedural vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," resulting in 50 votes in favor and 49 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, so the bill was dead on arrival. This means the crypto industry’s long-awaited clear regulatory framework has once again been played by those Washington politicians. As soon as the news broke, the market plunged: BTC spiked down to $74,900, ETH fell below 2400, and SOL, XRP, ZEC all dropped over 5%.
What’s worse is the capital flow. Just the day before the crash, the US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $142 million in a single day, the highest in nearly 8 months. BlackRock’s ETHA alone withdrew $98 million, with Bitwise, Grayscale, and Fidelity all pulling out. Institutions precisely exited before the crash, while retail investors were still foolishly buying the dip.
Looking at the technicals, ETH surged from a high of 2487 but then fell back, hitting a low of 2357, currently around 2405, with a 24-hour drop expanding to 4.6%. The 24-hour trading volume was $19.3 billion, showing a volume-driven decline. The capital outflow is clearly stronger than BTC, with the ETH/BTC ratio falling as funds flow back from Ethereum to Bitcoin. The resistance zone above is 2425-2440, a short-term strong pressure area, and 2390 is a key support level. If it breaks below, it will test the previous low at 2357.
The bloodiest data is the liquidation figures. Nearly 120,000 positions were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, totaling $670 million, with long positions accounting for $570 million. ETH is the most liquidated asset, with $301 million liquidated in 24 hours, including $203 million in long positions. At the moment ETH dropped from 2430 to 2390 in the early morning, $18.27 million in long positions were wiped out in one wave.
The current situation is: bill failure, ETF capital flight, technical breakdown, and longs getting slaughtered. I’m still holding my short, opened at an average price of 2472.21, mark price 2405.27, with a floating profit of 8.12%. Looking down first at 2390; if it breaks, then 2357, and further down near 2300 is the concentrated liquidation zone of $552 million in long positions.
Either it wipes them out in one wave, or it bottoms out and admits defeat. Waiting for good news, brothers!! 🚀
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC Is Testing Who Still Wants to Buy
$BTC doesn’t need another sharp breakout to prove strength. The better test is what happens when sellers try to push price lower.
If dips are absorbed quickly and volume returns with the rebound, buyers are still defending the market. But if support breaks with expanding sell volume, that changes the structure.
For now, reaction to weakness matters more than chasing strength.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates $BNB — Still holding up better than most. Support: 700 / 685 Resistance: 730 / 760 Above 700, the structure remains range-bound. Lose 700, and the correction could accelerate. I’d rather hold the core than chase a breakout. $OKB — Still trapped between 108.5–116. Support: 108.5 / 105 Resistance: 116 / 120 The long-term X Layer narrative remains, but short-term price action is still tied to overall risk appetite. Before FOMC, patience > leverage. $HYPE — Highest beta, highest leverage sensitivityBTC and ETH Are Telling Different Parts of the Story
$BTC is still the market’s main liquidity signal. $ETH, meanwhile, shows whether that liquidity is spreading into the broader ecosystem.
When BTC holds its structure while ETH starts gaining strength with improving volume, market breadth is getting healthier. If ETH keeps lagging despite BTC strength, that tells a different story.
The next thing I’d track is ETH relative strength against BTC.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 LSK volatility 46.2%, dumped yesterday and pulled back today
$LSK is now 0.33 USDT, 24h +21.7%. The coin that took a hit yesterday is back to the top of the gainers list today.
24h low 0.2421, high 0.3674, volatility 46.2%, nearly half the range up and down in one day; trading volume 4.15 million USDT, ranked 35th in the USDT market, volume still not large. 7-day change +199.5%.
In the same period, $SOL 97.27 USDT, 24h -3.8%, $ZEC 1,157.23 USDT, 24h +1.2%, total market cap down 5% in 24h, LSK is moving completely on its own trend.
US prosecutors today charged a former Robinhood engineer for trading tokens before their official listing. The market is digesting this regulatory news, while LSK is purely a capital game.
Yesterday, the analyst just wrote about its dump, and today it pulled back. The K-line shows two big wicks up and down, but volume only ranks 35th. This kind of pullback is generally not chased by the analyst.
Don’t be fooled by the +21.7% gain, for a coin with 46.2% volatility, position sizing should be based on the worst wick. BTC and OKB Are Testing Different Layers of Demand
$BTC gives the broader market its liquidity direction, while $OKB reflects demand within the OKX ecosystem.
If BTC remains stable and OKB starts attracting stronger volume, that could show capital is moving beyond the market benchmark. But if OKB rallies without participation, the move deserves more caution.
The signal I’d track next: BTC stability + OKB volume confirmation.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 Crazy, crazy, everyone else is falling, but $ZEC still wants to rise. Are you tougher than others' bones??
BTC is down, ETH is down, the whole market is as green as a vegetable patch, yet ZEC, this monster coin, stubbornly pushes up against the trend, completely ignoring the flood outside. Looking at its bullish candle, I’m both angry and amused. Everyone else is diving, and you’re the only one pole vaulting?
Look at the long-short ratio: shorts account for as much as 73%, longs only 27%, retail shorts are extremely crowded. It’s precisely at times like this that you need to be careful—if the market falls but it doesn’t, either there’s a real whale supporting the price to accumulate, or it’s the last bull trap before a dump. If it can hold above the previous high, then it’s really tough; if it can’t break through, the correction will be faster than anyone else.
My FIL short position is making me drool, opened at 1.0125, current price 0.8079, +60% profit firmly in hand. I’ve suffered losses stubbornly holding ZEC before, almost liquidated from sleepless nights, now I’ve learned—don’t go against the market, and don’t get emotionally attached to monster coins.
Ladies, remember this: the harder it rises, the stronger it’s not necessarily; it might just be holding on. Don’t rush in to catch the red candle, set your stop loss well, surviving longer means more profit. Do you think ZEC is really strong or just a bull trap? Let’s chat in the comments!🧋💀
$BTC
$ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The bulls who went long on spot are still here, with some big players spending about one million USD to buy in. What does this reflect? Let's take a look at the data! 2026.9.16 #BullRun Top 40 holding addresses data changes Binance: inflow of 37 million coins gate1: outflow of 1.1 million coins gate5: outflow of 3 million coins mexc: outflow of 1.6 million coins New entries in top 40: total 6 people, 4 transferred in, 1 increased position, 1 normal rise Dropped out of top 40: total 6 people, 4 transferred out of exchanges, 1 moved accounts, 1 slightly reduced position Top 40 increased positions: total 2 people, both transferred in Top 40 reduced positions: total 4 people, 3 reduced positions, 1 transferred out $BullRun Daily key summary: 6 new addresses entered the top 40, 4 of the transfers came from Binance, but the one who increased position on-chain is very aggressive, adding 850,000 USD. Among those who dropped out of the top 40, on-chain data shows only one person slightly reduced position, the rest moved to Binance. Only 2 people increased positions in the top 40, both transferred in from Binance, but no on-chain increase is visible. The 4 who reduced positions in the top 40 collectively reduced about 600,000 USD. Also, it's unclear why Binance inflow is still so large. The spot has been up for some time, and even with bulls on spot, some big players still spent nearly 1 million USD buying on-chain, proving that on-chain volatility is still relatively high. The overall market has not been disrupted and looks relatively healthy, but data reflects a large proportion of cautious observation, whether insiders or outsiders, all are... Last night, BTC crashed from 79,500 down to 74,900.
It pierced 75,000, spiked down, then recovered. Now struggling around 75,400.
Liquidations totaled $665 million.
This is not a correction. This is a triple kill.
First, face reality, don’t dream.
Kill one: Oil prices are crazy. Brent crude surpassed $106, once nearing $109.8 intraday. Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was bombed, cutting off a lifeline transporting 7 million barrels per day; Yanbu port inventories only last 5 to 7 days. At Hormuz, last weekend daily vessel traffic dropped to single digits. Bernstein warns oil prices could surge to $120-$150.
Kill two: The Fed is hiking rates. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, core CPI 0.3%, exceeding expectations. Market pricing for a 25 basis point hike in September jumped from 70% to nearly 90%. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.012% intraday, the highest since October 2023. JPMorgan even raised its 2026 rate hike forecast to two hikes.
Kill three: The CLARITY Act is dead. Senate procedural vote 49-50, not even close to the 60-vote threshold. Coinbase CEO Armstrong stated "we can’t wait for Congress anymore," shifting efforts to SEC/CFTC level.
Under these three kills, those fantasizing about a V-shaped reversal, wake up.
Key price levels, remember these numbers.
First support: $76,000. The low on September 10 touched 76,676 and held temporarily; yesterday’s spike to 74,900 was recovered. This is the current critical bull-bear dividing line.
Second support: $73,000-$74,000. The daily candle Fibonacci 78.6% level is at 72,620, the next real defense zone. If panic intensifies after CPI, this will be tested.
First resistance: $76,000-$76,300. A dense short-term sell zone, the first hurdle on a rebound.
Second resistance: $77,600. Only breaking this can we breathe easier.
Trend confirmation: $82,000. Only a daily close above 82,000 accompanied by positive ETF inflows signals a trend reversal. Yesterday ETFs saw a net outflow of $450 million, with Fidelity alone pulling $215 million. Don’t rush to call a bull market.
Position management, here’s the play.
Spot: Keep your base holdings, don’t add leverage at this level. If 76,000 is repeatedly tested but not broken, small additions are possible. But remember—the Fear & Greed Index just dropped from 69 to 51, shifting from "greed" to "neutral," panic selling is not fully released yet.
Futures:
→ Light long positions near 76,000 with stop loss below 74,500. The spike and recovery indicate funds are supporting below.
→ If it rebounds to 80,000-82,000, prioritize reducing positions rather than adding. That’s a resistance zone, not a breakout zone.
Altcoins: In an environment of high oil prices and stablecoin contraction, altcoin liquidity will be siphoned by BTC. BTC dominance is 58.54%, funds are not flowing into altcoins. Avoid heavy positions in low-liquidity altcoins at this stage.
The biggest risk you might have missed.
The failure of the CLARITY Act is no small matter. It means regulatory uncertainty will suppress institutional entry pace for a longer time. This marks a watershed from "enforcement-driven" to "rule-driven," but the tug-of-war over detailed revisions will last a long time.
In other words: no policy catalysts in the short term.
What to watch next? The Fed’s statement this week. With 87% of rate hike pricing locked in, the real focus is whether the statement frames this move as a "one-off hedge" or the "start of a new tightening cycle."
If the latter, 73,000 may not be the bottom.
$BTC $BZ $CL #中东能源风险推高油价 BNB Is Being Tested Beyond the Chart
$BNB has a deeper signal than price momentum: whether activity across its ecosystem can keep generating real demand.
When volume, liquidity and network usage expand together, price strength has more substance behind it. If price moves while participation dries up, the momentum becomes easier to lose.
The next thing I’d watch is BNB volume versus network activity.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates "Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 44 Review of Issue 43: The short position on BTC at 79200-79800 ultimately reached the third target near 75000, and the short on ETH at 2565-2600 also touched the 2357 level last night. This round of short positions again largely met expectations. Next, I will share my views on Issue 44. Yesterday, the US Senate failed to advance the "CLARITY Act," causing Bitcoin to drop to around 74900 and Ethereum to nearly 2357 at its lowest, clearly impacting market risk appetite. Today's biggest risk is not in the market itself but the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight and the subsequent monetary policy press conference. Market pricing clearly leans toward a rate hike at this meeting. Therefore, today's trading must pay attention to this: The real market focus may not be "whether to hike rates," but "what the Fed says after the hike." If the statement and press conference signal a tightening bias, indicating possible continued rate hikes, while US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, then BTC and ETH may face significant resistance on any rebound. Conversely, if the market has fully priced in rate changes and the Fed's subsequent stance is less hawkish than expected, or even shows improved liquidity expectations, then BTC and ETH, which have already fallen, could see a rapid rebound. This is why today is not suitable for going all-in on any direction at the current position. Jiang Feng personally prefers to focus on shorting at rebound highs! For specific strategies, refer to the resistance levels above. Yesterday we reviewed the upward trend: when the price moves up, long positions follow the price, and short positions bear the pressure. Today, let's flip the scenario—when the price starts to fall, which side is the trend-following position?
Here's the conclusion first: when the price falls, short positions are the side following the price, called trend-following; long positions are the side bearing the pressure, called counter-trend. The position structure does not change; what changes is the price direction—when the direction changes, trend-following and counter-trend also switch.
This article discusses the method to judge trend-following and counter-trend in a dual long-short operation, and does not represent advice for ordinary users to set or modify platform parameters by themselves. The strategy structure and parameters are part of the platform's preset rules; ordinary users can operate with default parameters, usually only needing to adjust the initial order and leverage according to their account conditions. 1. Positional relationship in a downtrend
When the price moves downward, the short position direction aligns with the price movement direction, and floating profit and loss changes favorably; this path follows the price. The long position direction is opposite to the price movement direction; for every downward move, the floating loss on this path increases, and replenishment conditions may be triggered sequentially, causing the path to expand to deeper levels.
Comparing with yesterday's upward trend makes it clearer: in the same dual long-short account, short positions bear pressure when the price rises, and long positions bear pressure when the price falls. These two paths remain the same; what changes is their relative relationship with the price direction.
2. How the switch happens
Here is a key point: trend-following and counter-trend are not fixed labels for one side of the position, but rather depend on the path relative to the price📂 20U Live Trading Record 066
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 Profit on this trade: Currently no position
✅ Total profit: +38U
📌 Current position: No position
Continuing to observe the capital flow on three chains
1. A certain whale withdrew 50,000 $ETH from Binance and immediately staked them
According to The Data Nerd monitoring, a whale address held 40,000 ETH a week ago, and 2 hours ago withdrew 50,000 ETH from Binance, worth about $93.6 million, and immediately staked after withdrawal. The total holding increased to 90,000 ETH
Withdrawing from the exchange and staking immediately without holding them in hand. This action itself shows the attitude
2. $BTC ETF had a net outflow of $450 million yesterday
SoSoValue data shows that Fidelity's FBTC had a single-day net outflow of $215 million, ranking first, and BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of $162 million. But looking at the longer term, IBIT has accumulated an increase of $1.08 billion worth of BTC in the past 20 days, while GBTC sold off $254.7 million in the same period. Overall there is an outflow, but funds are migrating internally from old trusts to new ETFs
3. $SOL fell below 100, whales are selling.
SOL current price is $96.76, down 3.68% in 4 hours. Whale AiMFH9 unstaked 53,194 SOL and sold all at $233 each, profiting about $3.2 million
At the same time, ETH whales are withdrawing and staking, and BTC ETF funds are migrating internally Overnight, the head of Anthropic publicly wrote that the expansion speed of AI has exceeded safe limits, and Elon Musk immediately agreed, with funds first withdrawing from the storage sector. On Monday, $SNDK fell nearly 5 points in a single day, hitting as low as around 8 points intraday. This seems more like a repositioning of holdings regarding whether the "computing power narrative" will continue, rather than a sudden change in the company's fundamentals. SanDisk just spun off from Western Digital in February this year, mainly operating NAND flash and solid-state drives. Last fiscal year, revenue exceeded $20 billion, doubling growth, with data centers contributing nearly $3 billion in a single quarter, about one-third of the company, driven by AI training and inference demand. Thus, the market began to ask: if new models are more memory-efficient, will storage demand be compressed; if safety concerns cause big companies to slow down data center construction, will order momentum loosen accordingly? These questions currently have no answers, and the boundary between a shakeout and bubble bursting is hard to distinguish. For the crypto market, sentiment around AI, DePIN, and computing power tokens often follows the US tech stock chain. If the latter continues to weaken, $FET, $RNDR, $TAO, and others may also come under pressure simultaneously. Attention should be paid to linkage rather than isolated judgment. Risk warning: The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions independently. Sudden adjustment in the crypto circle🔥
BTC dropped to 75,000-76,000, ETH fell below 2400, nearly 120,000 people liquidated, and $670 million in funds were cleared.
Trigger: The US CLARITY crypto bill procedural vote failed to reach 60 votes, regulatory benefits fell through. Coupled with the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5%, high oil prices, and the approaching Federal Reserve meeting, the market shifted from easing expectations to high-rate risk aversion.
Logic: The crypto circle is a high beta risk asset, short-term driven by macro and US regulatory news.
Key levels: BTC must hold 75,000, ETH must hold 2380 to have a chance of rebound.
If Powell leans hawkish, altcoins will continue deleveraging; if dovish, oversold recovery will come.
Short-term avoid catching a falling knife, wait for the rate decision, deleveraging, then watch the trends of major coins and ETF funds.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#中东能源风险推高油价
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #中东能源风险推高油价
The energy risk in the Middle East continues to escalate, pushing oil prices to new highs again.
The market is no longer worried about a single oil field or a single shipping route, but about the entire Middle East energy supply chain facing multiple shocks.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains very sluggish; the latest data shows that only 4 vessels passed on Tuesday, far below the average of the past 10 days. Meanwhile, the east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia is damaged, affecting loading at Yanbu port. 
This means that the Saudi backup export route, which could bypass Hormuz, is now also restricted.
The result is:
Hormuz blocked
→ Saudi oil pipeline shutdown
→ Increased shipping risk in the Red Sea
→ Reduced global crude oil supply flexibility
→ Continued expansion of oil price risk premium.
Currently, Brent crude remains near $107, and WTI stays above $100. 
What’s more troubling is that the market is now starting to worry that supply disruptions could last for weeks.
If the Saudi pipeline cannot be restored in the short term and navigation through Hormuz cannot fully normalize, the crude oil market will face not a one-time emotional shock but a sustained supply gap.
This is especially sensitive for U.S. inflation.
Crude oil ↑
→ Gasoline, diesel ↑
→ Transportation costs ↑
→ Business costs ↑
→ Commodity prices ↑
→ CPI pressure ↑
→ Fed’s policy space constrained.
This is the most concerning aspect of the current oil price rise.
Because the market has just experienced stronger-than-expected PPI and CPI and the Fed’s renewed hawkish shift, if energy prices remain high, inflation could again become a key variable suppressing risk assets.
For BTC, the logic is also clear:
Sustained oil price rise → Inflation expectations heat up → U.S. Treasury yields remain high → Dollar strengthens → BTC liquidity under pressure.
Of course, the recent unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories has provided some buffer for oil prices, indicating that the supply shock has not fully translated into a spot market meltdown. 
So what really deserves attention next is not how much oil prices rise in a day, but:
① Whether Hormuz can resume normal navigation;
② When the Saudi east-west pipeline will be restored;
③ Whether Red Sea shipping risks will continue to expand;
④ Whether Brent can hold above $110 long-term;
⑤ Whether high oil prices will again push up U.S. core inflation.
In short: Middle East energy risk is shifting from an "oil price market" to an "inflation market." If supply disruptions persist, the next to be pressured may not only be crude oil but also global interest rates and risk assets. $BTC $ARB is slightly bullish in the short term, but don't chase it yet. The hardest part of ARB's rise is resisting the urge to prove yourself halfway up the mountain. Let's talk again after a stable pullback. Trading plan: Slightly bullish short term, but only trade on pullback confirmation or breakout confirmation. Trading advice: Consider buying after a pullback stabilizes between 0.1482–0.152; if it strengthens directly, follow after it breaks above 0.1596. Set stop loss at 0.146, take profit first at 0.1721, then at 0.1832. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC Recap. Known lower boundary of the consolidation zone is 7.6. After the first ploughing drop yesterday, it quickly rebounded to 774. After the bill vote in the early morning, it fell below 7.6 again. Returning to the market. Currently, the HR level is still weak. The 7.6 level of prevailing liquidity has become HR-level resistance. Afterwards, 773-781-796. After the first drop below 7.6 yesterday, I entered as planned. The logic is to play the 7.6-8.25 consolidation zone~ stop loss is around 7.4. Figure 2. 7.4 served as the previous daily support resistance swap level. If it breaks here, any long position must stop loss. Because the lower floor is relatively vacuum. The subsequent support is 7.25-7. To summarize. My personal view over the past week is this is a high P/E ratio position worth betting on for bulls. I am a bullish and already in the car~ there is still a rate meeting in the early morning. If you're worried about large volatility or extreme market conditions, you can reduce your position. Or wait until tomorrow or next week after the market digests the rate hike and implements it—stabilize above 7.6, or break below 7.4, then play the next stage. Trading advice. Trade intraday or small-level positions, using last night's sharp stop-loss as a needle. Pay attention to whether 7.6 can recover and hold steady. Near 7.73 above is the target 4-hour level. If you're trading in the consolidation zone, Set your stop loss. If it recovers above 7.73, you can push for break-even. Above 7.8, start taking profits in batches. Don't mix up different cycles and perspectives when trading ~ Lock positions with losses. Doing so won't affect your good appetiteBrothers, get up. I took a quick look at the market. To be honest, I don't really think we'll see a straight one-sided trend today. Most likely, it will be a weak oscillation, repeatedly shaking people out before the news comes out.
There were several sharp drops earlier, and you can indeed see on the K-line that someone is buying, but the rebounds are weak and soft. It's obvious the bulls are just defending the market, not truly reversing the trend yet. Today, I'm watching only one position for $BTC — 75,000, and for $ETH, the range is 2350 to 2400.
The biggest uncertainty today is the FOMC tonight. The market has basically priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, with the probability almost reaching 90%. Plus, with US Treasury yields breaking 5%, oil prices staying high, and the US stock market under pressure, pre-market funds definitely won't move recklessly.
My own judgment is: the morning session will most likely be weak and oscillating, with possibly a small rebound, but any upward surge will likely be hammered back down. Unless BTC retakes 77,000 and ETH holds above 2400 steadily, I don't think the buying power has truly returned. Conversely, if volume increases and new lows are hit, don't just see it as a normal shakeout; it means the market is still pre-trading hawkish expectations.
To put it simply, don't guess the direction today. Just watch if the K-line can stop falling. The real big move will most likely wait until the news is released tonight.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Crypto was supposed to be an alternative to the traditional financial system where the 'little guy' stands a chance, but in practice, it has turned into a mirror image of that very system—only with much less legal regulation and an even more brutal dominance of big capital. $TRUMP I didn’t make any judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn’t expect it to really show respect.
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, TRUMP’s every rally fell just short, the selling pressure on TRUMP was strong, and the trading volume was low. I didn’t chase the long, just warned that if it can’t rise, go short, don’t catch a falling knife.
From 1.963 down to 1.875, the short position yield was +224.14%, the timing was spot on.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection, let the profit run with further drops, and don’t panic on rebounds.
For stocks you’re not confident in, a glance keeps you sober, buying a lot is foolish. Have a strategy before the market, discipline during, and reflection after. If you haven’t gotten in yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush, there will be more opportunities later.
$LAB $SOL