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Goldman Sachs: U.S. Treasury yields rise, overseas funds continue to heavily buy U.S. corporate bonds
The market previously widely worried that a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields would force overseas investors to withdraw from the U.S. corporate bond market. However, Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist Amanda Lynam pointed out that this has not happened; overseas demand for U.S. corporate bonds remains strong.
Data shows that as of the end of June, overseas investors had a net purchase of $251 billion in U.S. corporate bonds. At the current pace, the full-year net purchase in 2026 is expected to approach last year's record high of $392 billion. Overseas investors hold about 29% of U.S. corporate bonds, making them a crucial source of demand in the credit market.
Even with dollar fluctuations and rising hedging costs, overseas funds continue to allocate to U.S. credit assets. Goldman Sachs interprets that the return attractiveness brought by high yields offsets the pressure from rising interest rates, causing funds to divert from U.S. Treasuries to higher-yielding corporate credit bonds.
👉 Impact on the crypto market
1. Continuous inflow of overseas funds into the U.S. credit market indicates that global dollar liquidity still has absorption capacity, but funds mainly flow into fixed income, without a large-scale surge into crypto assets.
2. Sustained high U.S. Treasury yields and elevated risk-free rates continue to suppress the valuations of BTC and ETH.
3. This news is a structural signal in the bond market and does not change this week's FOMC-driven main market theme; if corporate bonds later show credit risk, it will trigger collective risk aversion in global risk assets, and crypto will be pressured accordingly. Do not heavily bet on direction before the news lands
The biggest recent catalyst in the market comes from the US Senate vote on the crypto bill, which is also the source of today's market volatility
1. Core news
1. Regulatory aspect (short-term negative)
The US Senate procedural vote rejected the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act." The market originally expected this bill to pass, providing clear regulatory rules for the crypto industry and reducing uncertainty. The vote failure means the industry is unlikely to get a clear legal framework in the short term, and positive expectations are directly dashed. Once the news broke, BTC and ETH both came under pressure and fell, dragging most altcoins down collectively.
The bill's rejection does not mean permanent shelving; it only failed this time and will be discussed again in the next congressional cycle, representing a mid-to-long-term expectation disappointment and a short-term emotional shock.
2. Macro focus: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision tonight, which is the core factor determining BTC and ETH's mid-term strength or weakness.
Crypto assets are risk assets; US interest rate expectations and US Treasury yields directly affect capital flows:
- If hawkish (maintaining high rates or even raising rates): funds will withdraw from risk assets, making BTC/ETH likely to continue facing pressure
- If dovish (signaling rate cuts): liquidity expectations improve, providing rebound momentum for coin prices
Currently, the market is very cautious, with many funds choosing to reduce positions before the decision to avoid sharp moves after the data release.
3.
After the negative bill news, short-term long positions actively contracted, with mass liquidations of long orders within 24 hours.
BTC has a larger volume and higher institutional participation, so the decline is relatively controllable; ETH is more elastic, with more intense volatility than BTC, and its price swings are usually greater than Bitcoin.
2
BTC: trading in a range with resistance above where trapped positions exist, and support below that needs to be observed if it can hold. Under news disturbances, frequent back-and-forth spikes and many false breakouts occur intraday.
ETH: more sensitive to volatility and more affected by overall market sentiment
3
Many people habitually heavily bet on news in advance, gambling on positive or negative outcomes. But macro data and policy news often lead to "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenarios. Even if the news matches expectations, the market may move in the opposite direction.
The biggest trap in news-driven markets is sudden intraday spikes that directly trigger stop losses. In such an environment, small position trial-and-error and strict stop-loss settings are much safer.
Personal opinion, for news and market learning exchange only, not investment advice. Contract leverage trading carries very high risk; please manage your positions carefully $BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 Three valuation methods for them in the market
The value of $BTC lies in scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a crypto reserve asset. Institutional capital flow is crucial.
The value of $ETH is reflected in on-chain activity: stablecoins, DeFi, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL embodies a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must scale to support higher valuations.
Same market, different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flow and actual activity need confirmation. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Why did Strategy suddenly stop buying coins and switch to repurchasing preferred shares? Pharaoh says directly, Seller hasn't changed his mind; he's just playing a very clever game—first repairing the city walls, then planning to conquer the world.
Look at the data. From September 8 to 13, Strategy didn't buy a single Bitcoin, holding steady at 845,050 coins, with an average price of $75,412 and a cost of about 63.7 billion. Instead, it spent $139.3 million to repurchase 1.42 million STRC preferred shares, funded by USD Cash, with about $1.05 billion remaining in the repurchase plan.
Why not buy coins? Because they can't afford it anymore. The mNAV premium has compressed to 1.08x. Issuing shares at a price above net asset value to buy coins dilutes value faster than accumulating more coins. Canceling preferred share obligations actually preserves per-share value better than buying a few more BTC.
Even more painful is that ETF holdings have surpassed Strategy by 400,000 BTC. BlackRock's IBITs are consuming institutional demand, which used to belong to MSTR.
For Bitcoin, the largest corporate buyer has paused accumulation, significantly reducing marginal buying pressure. But Seller still holds $6.4 billion in cash and could pull the trigger anytime he thinks the price is right.
Remember, good opportunities come to those who wait, and Seller is waiting too.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $SOL #Strategy回购约1.39亿美元STRC $ZEC privacy narrative is back again, I quickly opened a small short 👊
$ZEC pushed from 1086 all the way up to 1198 today, now at 1185, up 5%. Zcash Labs invested $80,000 to support Ledger integrating Ironwood pool, and the privacy narrative was stirred up again for a rally. Looking at the 15-minute chart, this surge is moving up along the moving average, volume is 60,800, not particularly large, but the trend is quite stable.
STOCHRSI is at 73, not extremely hot, but there is obvious resistance near the previous high at 1198, and signs of a pullback after the spike. This kind of news-driven pump tends to pull back quickly once the sentiment fades.
I opened a small short, betting on a pullback after the spike, holding to see if I can catch some retracement. Any brothers in the comments riding the same wave? 🙈#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 #创作者激励 #OKX星球话题来啦 Storage is no longer just about price increases; it's now about capacity grabbing.
The most noteworthy news in the chip industry today isn't $NVDA, but $SKHYNIX and $INTC.
According to Reuters, SK Hynix is negotiating with Intel, possibly to lease Intel's Ohio factory, and may even involve cloud providers in a joint venture. If this materializes, it will be SK Hynix's first time producing memory chips in the U.S.
This signal is quite direct:
The shortage in storage is no longer just about price, but about capacity.
On the other hand, smartphone and laptop manufacturers are already preparing for storage shortages continuing through 2027; DRAM contract prices are expected to rise 13% to 18% this quarter.
So my morning view remains unchanged:
The HBM/DRAM cycle is not over yet.
Going forward, I am more focused on capacity allocation rather than daily stock price fluctuations.
If storage remains tight, how much longer can $MU, $SNDK, and $SKHYNIX benefit?
If Intel really puts its factories to use, could $INTC become the hidden beneficiary of this storage capacity expansion?
Who do you think will be the next leader:
$MU / $SNDK / $INTC / $SOXL? Market bullish sentiment is rapidly cooling down, with early momentum chasers concentrating on taking profits and exiting positions, causing ETH prices to gradually decline amid volatility. The ETHUSDT perpetual contract short position with 100x leverage has an unrealized profit of 467.74%, with an opening price of 2516.99 and a mark price of 2399.26. The bearish trading logic at high levels continues to be validated by the market.
On the daily chart, analysis uses the STD standard deviation indicator and MACD histogram. After the price deviates above the mean upper band, it quickly returns; the standard deviation narrows then diverges downward; the MACD red bars disappear while the green bars continue to expand. Each small rebound faces selling pressure from bears.
100x leverage is extremely high risk; sudden spikes and reversals can cause rapid losses. The 2360‑2375 range is the core support zone; stabilization here may lead to a rebound and recovery, while breaking support could deepen the correction. ETH moves in tandem with the broader market. Will you continue shorting with the trend or wait to build positions at lower levels? Heavy position gambling is strictly prohibited in contracts; stop-loss is an essential risk control baseline. $ETH Just went through the market again, and this situation is really disgusting.
Bitcoin is stuck at 75,700, this awkward position neither up nor down. When it dipped to 74,800 just now, I thought it was going to take off in one go, but it was forcibly pulled back. But if you look closely at this rebound, it's as soft as if it has no backbone, with no volume at all. The 76,500 area above is all trapped positions; as long as the rebound lacks strength at this level, it will smash down again in no time. If 74,800 can't hold, the 73,500 level below definitely won't hold for long.
Ethereum is even worse; the 2,400 level now looks like a joke. After grinding hard for a long time, it just broke through, now stuck like a dead fish at 2,399, unable to move. This kind of slow decline and sideways movement is the most torturous; it looks like it’s not falling, but actually the bulls have no ammo left. If the 2,350 defense line is broken again, the depth of this correction for Ethereum will definitely exceed many people's expectations.
SOL is also done for; after losing the 100-dollar mark, it directly headed for 97, and the rebound can’t even reach 99, extremely weak.
The current market is full of traps everywhere. Don’t think that just because you see a lot of bearishness it’s like giving money away to buy at the left side bottom. The manipulative whales love this kind of slow decline grinding bottom to trick retail investors into entering and catching falling knives, but one after another they stay silent.
It’s pointless. If you have short positions, protect your profits and hold steady. If you don’t have any positions, it’s better to just watch and not reach out recklessly. Wait until the market plunges sharply, shakes out all the panic sellers, and then shoots up with a big leg before considering moving on the right side.There is news today about memory stocks that most people haven't realized the severity of:
Micron's Taiwan factory faces a strike risk.
The union is demanding the establishment of a long-term profit-sharing system, even proposing to allocate 15% of Micron's global operating profit to employees. If no agreement is reached by 9/18 or 9/21, strike preparations will continue.
Why this matters — this is not an ordinary factory.
Taiwan is one of $MU's core DRAM/HBM production bases, and the current memory industry is at a very delicate stage: AI servers are voraciously consuming HBM, DRAM capacity is being reallocated, and NAND has just emerged from the last brutal cycle.
The supply side is the last thing that can afford to go wrong now.
So for MU, this is twofold: short-term operational risk, but long-term it could actually tighten supply across the entire industry.
If a deal is reached → limited impact
If a real strike happens → watch the price changes across the entire chain of $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, and Samsung immediately
The biggest AI story in the past two years has been GPUs.
Increasingly, more people will realize: the real supply elasticity risk lies in memory.#ThisWeekFOMCAnnouncement, Will the Rate Hike Actually Happen?
Watching the CME probability jump from 58% to 86%, and now to 92%, honestly, the market has already voted with its feet. BTC has steadily slipped from 79k to around 76k, Ethereum has even broken below 2400, and altcoins are crashing badly.
But here’s the interesting part. Yesterday’s ETF data showed a net inflow of 147 million for $BTC spot ETFs, and 95.44 million for $ETH as well. Prices are falling, but institutions are buying. This divergence on the eve of the FOMC is quite intriguing.
My view is cautious. If they really hike by 25bp, the key isn’t whether they hike or not, but whether Powell’s press conference will hint that "this is just the beginning." If the dot plot shows two or three more hikes ahead, then the 76k Fibonacci support likely won’t hold, and we could see a drop straight to 72k.
Conversely, if they hold rates steady but use hawkish language, that’s the classic "sell the rumor, buy the fact" scenario, and 76k might be a short-term bottom.
ETH follows BTC and lacks independence. Robinhood’s L2 data is impressive, but it’s still minor compared to macro factors.
My personal stance: don’t heavily bet on direction before the decision, wait for Powell to speak. The market’s biggest fear isn’t the rate hike itself, but not knowing how many more hikes are coming.
#ThisWeekFOMCAnnouncement, Will the Rate Hike Actually Happen? #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 @OKX中文 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The US wants to lock Bitcoin in the treasury for 20 years, what's going on?
Pharaoh says directly, on September 16, the House Financial Services Committee will review H.R. 8957, the "American Reserve Modernization Act." The core is simple: lock the government's 198,000 seized BTC into a strategic reserve, no selling allowed for 20 years, plus quarterly third-party audits.
Sounds fierce, right? But Pharaoh has to pour cold water on that.
First, this bill doesn't spend money to buy coins; it purely locks up existing holdings. If they really want to do large-scale buying, they have to wait for another "BITCOIN Act" to pass separately, which is still far from voting.
Second, the chance of passing is dismal. Prediction markets give only a 6% chance, and after September 17, the lawmakers will be on recess. Among the 23 Democrats on the committee, not a single one co-signed support.
But the symbolic meaning is much bigger than the actual content. This is the first time Bitcoin has been presented to Congress as a "national reserve asset." Tiger Research puts it bluntly: short-term impact is limited, but in the long run, writing Bitcoin into federal law itself is paving the way for sovereign adoption.
Pharaoh's one sentence: The bill probably won't pass, but getting it into committee review is a historic step.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $SOL #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 $BTC Bitcoin itself does not need the CLARITY Act. What really needs it are mainly US exchanges, brokers, custodians, token issuers, and a large number of altcoin projects.
I see some crypto bloggers analyzing it every day, focusing on the impact on the big coin, and I am speechless. Ultimately, it is the altcoins that need CLARITY more.
Bitcoin does not need any legislation; rather, they need Bitcoin. Hold on to your Bitcoin and don’t get scammed away. $ETH $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 📝Market Overview｜After the sharp drop, volume shrinks and the market moves sideways. Is this a buildup or a bull trap?
$BTC
Current price of Bitcoin is 75700, rebounding from the low of 74909. The market shows a typical pattern: small-bodied candles alternating between bearish and bullish, with no effective upward shift in the center of gravity, indicating a low-volume sideways consolidation after a sharp drop.
This candlestick pattern, appearing on the eve of the FOMC, should be understood in two layers of reality:
1. Panic selling pressure has temporarily exhausted itself.
After the earlier bill-related negative news pushed the price down to 74909, the short-term leveraged and panic selling has mostly been vented.
Neither bulls nor bears dare to act rashly; bulls lack sufficient funds to push volume for an attack, and bears do not want to blindly short before the decision. Thus, it turns into a tug-of-war with very small candle bodies and shrinking volume.
2. Low-volume sideways movement does not mean the bottom is reached; it is just a temporary balance.
There are two possible outcomes for low-volume sideways consolidation:
- Positive news arrives, volume expands and price breaks upward, confirming this is a rest and buildup after the decline;
- Negative news arrives, volume expands and price breaks downward, indicating a continuation of the downtrend, with sideways movement serving as a buffer before further decline.
Currently, without volume expansion, a reversal cannot be confirmed.
Small bullish candles push the price up, but without volume support, the center of gravity cannot be raised. This is merely a technical oversold correction, not a trend reversal.
Tonight, focus on two key signals:
✅ Support: 75000
If 75000 holds, the low-volume sideways consolidation can continue, and the direction will be chosen after the decision;
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #Besenet hearing releases multiple signals $BTC $ETH
At the Besenet hearing, what’s really worth paying attention to isn’t what he said.
Last night at the Besenet hearing, I felt the market truly absorbed not the nice words, but how much pressure the US Treasury bonds are really under now.
The 10-year US Treasury yield once broke through 5%, hitting a new high since 2007. Besenet’s explanation was straightforward: oil prices, global markets, interest rate hike expectations, and fiscal issues are all pushing yields higher. Meanwhile, he also emphasized that the Treasury’s previous bond buybacks were successful. (Reuters)
But here’s the problem.
If the buybacks were really that effective, why are yields still pushing above 5%?
This is what traders should really be watching.
And there’s an interesting detail this time: Besenet mentioned that a stronger yen aligns with US interests because it reduces Japan’s pressure to sell US bonds to stabilize the exchange rate. (Eastmoney)
In plain terms, the US now wants to stabilize not just the dollar, but Treasury bonds, the yen, the fiscal deficit, and oil prices—all these factors are intertwined.
For risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, don’t just focus on the candlestick charts.
If Treasury yields continue to push higher, market liquidity will be uncomfortable.
So what I’m most focused on now isn’t what Besenet will say next, but:
Can the 10-year Treasury yield really be pushed down from this 5% level?
This level might be the true indicator for risk assets going forward.$UNITREE Kongyushu has two issues
1. The general consensus is bearish, and crowded shorts lead to high funding fees and losses during sideways trading. This can be mitigated by opening both long and short positions with locked positions until the main drop occurs (which is difficult to execute and may cause missing the market move).
2. The circulating shares of the underlying stock are only 1/10 of the total, and the chips are concentrated in the hands of a few institutions. It is highly controlled, and even when the market is weak these days, it hasn't dropped significantly, making it hard to short in advance by predicting the stock market situation. This issue is unsolvable and results in a very low cost-performance ratio for shorting Kongyushu.
The only certainty is that it will drop sharply before the lock-up period ends, but positioning now also reflects the first issue mentioned: crowded shorts and losses during sideways trading, and it is difficult to judge the unlocking timing even with both long and short locked positions.
The conclusion is that shorting has a low cost-performance ratio. Another suggestion is to check whether the contract price matches the underlying stock price before shorting, and try to choose a good price.Fifteen years ago today, BTC officially fell below $5. On September 15, 2011, Bitcoin experienced a crash that is now unimaginable. At that time, BTC fell from its previous $7 and $8 levels, and market panic kept spreading. On the Bitcoin forum, there was even a discussion post titled "The Bitcoin Apocalypse." That day, an early player named Nagle wrote: "If $5 USD is the Bitcoin Apocalypse, we're very close. $5.17 and dropping." A few hours later, he updated again: "We're there. $4.82 now." It arrived, $4.82. No exclamation marks, no memes, like someone gently closing their eyes on something that just died. That year, Bitcoin plunged from $31 all the way to $2; half the forum was popping champagne, half writing epitaphs. No one talked about trillion-dollar market caps, spot ETFs, or institutional entrance; everyone was only competing on one thing—whether it could survive that month. That "feast" was actually very short; from 31 to 2, only cups and plates remained. But at the time, no one knew that the so-called final whistle was just the sound of the first dish being served. Fifteen years later, 4.82 had become the highest price of $126,000. Those who wrote epitaphs back then are now shouting "This time is different," stepping on the groundI didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me to profit. This service is really on point. Yesterday at dawn, when everyone else was running, I was watching $DOT, low volume, strong sell orders, each rebound weaker than the last, opened a short at 1.0454.
I just judged: no one will catch it going up, it will come down sooner or later. The signal was very clear at the time, don't rush to catch the bottom.
During the intraday plunge, at 0.9483, +463.93%, I could treat myself to a good meal.
Took profits first, closed 70%. Moved the stop loss on the remaining 30% closer to the cost price, if it continues to drop let the profit run, and don't give back gains on rebounds.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up with a bloody hand. For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately.
$SNDK $ETH Mid-term intelligence guy is here.
Last night, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act got stuck, and the crypto community exploded — this thing was originally seen as the key vote setting the regulatory tone for BTC and ETH, but the two parties bickered, so short-term funds fled first.
For the short term, don’t listen to the bulls saying "a delay in good news doesn’t mean the good news is gone," nor believe the bears saying "the bill is dead, the bull market is over." While monitoring the market today, I suddenly realized something: people making money in crypto and those losing money look at the same candlestick but make completely different decisions. Some people see a rise and their first reaction is to go all-in. Some see a drop and their first reaction is to cut losses. In the end, both types of people are taught by the market. In the past, I liked to trade frequently, always thinking that if I seized every swing, I could earn more. Later, I realized that the more trades I made, the more mistakes I had made, the fees rose, and my mindset became more chaotic. What really changed me was a deep correction. Account profits evaporated a lot in a day, and I didn't sleep well. At that moment, I realized the problem wasn't the market, but that I had no rules. Since then, I have set a few iron rules for myself. First, don't chase coins that have already surged. Second, don't let a single bearish candlestick disrupt the entire trend. Third, always cash out profits in batches, not waiting for the "peak." Fourth, always keep some cash positions. Recently, market volatility has clearly increased, and macro news and regulatory developments continuously affect short-term sentiment, so the crypto market can experience significant volatility within a single day. But at times like this, it's even less important to be swayed by emotions. I've always been following a few directions: BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI, OKB. It's not because they will definitely rise, but because they represent the core capital flow in the market. What really matters is watching the trend, not guessing whether the next candlestick will rise or fall. Many people like to ask: "How many times can it multiply?" " Now I prefer to ask myself: "If today there is a sudden 20% pullbackAt 2 a.m., a group of people will stay up late watching the screen again.
Simply put, the Federal Reserve is about to announce whether to raise interest rates. The market is currently betting over 90% that they will raise by 25 basis points.
But the really interesting part is not this.
Oil prices have risen above 100, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has broken 5%. Putting these two numbers together sends a very clear message — money has become more expensive, and there is no reason to expect it to get cheaper in the short term.
The rate hike itself is no surprise; the question is whether the dot plot will be more hawkish and whether they intend to continue tightening.
For the crypto world, this is not good news, but it’s not new either. High interest rates have been suppressing valuations for almost two years now.
My attitude is simple: not raising rates would be the surprise; a rate hike is expected. What really needs attention is the post-meeting wording. If it’s harsher than the market expects, risk assets will likely shake again in the short term.
Don’t rush to bet on the direction. Wait for that needle at dawn, then talk.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#中东能源风险推高油价 #10年期美债收益率突破5% $ETH $ETH at the current situation, I'll be straightforward
This drop is really brutal, crashing from 2615 all the way down to 2358. Although it pulled back a bit afterward, it clearly didn't regain momentum.
Now it's hovering around 2402, bulls want to counterattack, bears aren't rushing to push down further, a typical sideways breath after a drop.
I'm watching two key levels now.
Around 2390, this is short-term support; if it holds, there's a chance to test 2440 and 2450.
If 2390 is broken through directly, the low at 2358 will likely be retested.
Above, watch 2440–2450; if it can't break through this zone, I won't consider the current rebound a reversal. $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Last night's Senate procedural vote didn't meet the 60-vote threshold. The CLARITY bill collapsed before the formal debate began, and I didn't even get the chance to sit on the table to argue. It sounds pretty tragic, but the way it was bad is very familiar. It's like the person you've been dating for two years—every time you ask how the relationship works, he says to wait a bit longer. The timing isn't right, and the family isn't ready yet. You believe him, and you help count the days together. When the days are counted, he says, 'Let's do this this year for now, we'll see next year.' The logic of the market over the past two years actually boils down to one sentence: once regulations become clear, institutions come in This statement itself is correct; the mistake lies in treating it as a schedule. Regulation is not product iteration; it is politics. The rhythm of politics has nothing to do with your positions. Once the midterm elections come, no one wants to get involved in this matter. The next high probability will be the SEC and CFTC each making rules patched up. Watching alone doesn't satisfy thirst. Together, it's barely enough. This isn't failure; it's the norm. Most U.S. industry rules are built piece by piece. My judgment is not to trade this failed negative news; it's more like an expected repricing The optimism about legislation in previous price has now been squeezed out. What remains after squeezing out is the real anchor of this market. What really needs adjustment isn't positions, but the timeline. The narrative you originally planned to deliver this year will be delayed. How long will it be delayed? I'm not lying to you. I don't know either. Keep cash, keep patience, keep a way of life that doesn't depend on anyone giving you a title. This market has never lacked opportunities; what it lacks is people still standing hereThe market has voted with positions: BTC fell 2.74%, ETH dropped 3.19%, with capital choosing to shrink exposure before the interest rate decision rather than betting on direction. The real variable lies not in inflation itself, but in the tug-of-war between expectations and politics. The market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in September is close to 90%, with JPMorgan and HSBC also turning to rate hike forecasts, but Goldman Sachs warns that this round of heightened expectations is more due to the Federal Reserve's reluctance to reverse market pricing rather than a clear deterioration in inflation fundamentals. If the rate hike is implemented, short-term interest rates and a stronger dollar will continue to suppress valuations of high-volatility assets; if no action is taken, the dot plot and press conference will need to fully explain inflationary pressures, otherwise anti-inflation credibility will be damaged, while public opposition from Trump and White House advisor Hassett leaves decision-making caught between politics and data. The wording of the post-meeting statement can be observed: a hawkish tilt will prolong pressure on risk assets, while a dovish tilt does not necessarily mean easing. Before 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, directional heavy positions are not cost-effective; it is safer to wait for a clearer path before taking action. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Risk warning: The above is a summary of market information and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously.MU Current Structure
MU closed yesterday at about $924.03, down approximately 5.2% for the day; intraday range was about $902.60–$932.21. Short-term has already shown oversold signs: hourly RSI14 around 29.5, while daily RSI14 is about 46.4.
Currently it looks more like:
Long-term bullish trend is intact → sharp short-term drop from highs → searching for support.
On the fundamentals side, Micron's most recent quarter revenue hit a record approximately $41.46B, non-GAAP EPS about $25.11, and provided next quarter revenue guidance around $50B.
At the same time, the latest industry information shows DRAM supply remains tight, with short-term memory prices still under upward pressure, supporting MU's profitability.
Technical indicator data also shows different levels of support references around $918.6, $901.3, and $890.
My short-term trading script
Buy on pullback
If MU returns to $900–920:
* Do not chase the price up directly
* Wait for a 1-hour stop-fall candlestick / to regain above $920
* Bullish targets: $920 → $950 → $980–1,000
* If it breaks below $890 effectively, this buy script is invalid今晚凌晨 2:00，美联储利率决议落地，2:30 沃什开发布会。市场已经把价格定到了极致：交易员定价加息 25 个基点概率 95%，这是 2023 年 7 月以来第一次 —— 但白宫哈塞特和特朗普这两天反复喊话 "没有加息理由，美国要全球最低利率"。数据、政治、市场，三方全在今晚对撞。 BTC 这边已经用脚投票：从 9.14 的 7.67 万一路跌到现在的 7.58 万附近，昨晚一度险守 7.5 万，全网超 11.5 万人爆仓。7.6 万这个我说了一周的支撑，还是破了。 我的判断，说直接点：**加息基本落地，但落地≠崩盘，我赌 "利空出尽" 的概率更大**。理由三条：第一，95% 的加息已经被市场定价了整整两周，价格从 8 万跌到 7.58 万就是在提前还这笔债，真公布反而是靴子落地；第二，白宫把 "别加" 喊到台面上，沃什就算加息，措辞和点阵图大概率也会留后路，给年内 "最后一次" 留想象空间；第三，看历史 —— 每一次紧缩周期结束，BTC 都在 18 个月内创下新高，这个位置的中期价值，比短线噪音值钱。 我的应对：不赌单边。守住 75,000 看反弹修复，跌破 74,000 才是趋$CNPY Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and my mind stays calm without staring at the screen.
Last night before bed, CNPY hovered around 0.2424, support held firm, it was consolidating but not breaking down. I advised to set up long positions first and go long.
This morning when I checked, it had already reached 0.3564, up +941.41%, really awesome. The earlier phase was just dragging, but the breakout is truly sweet. Pocket the big gains first, take 70% profit, and move the stop loss on the remaining 30% to the breakeven price—don’t be greedy for the last bit.
The market is a cure for all kinds of arrogance, especially for those who think they’re the smartest. Don’t get inflated by profits, don’t despair over pullbacks.
Waiting patiently for good news, don’t rush to chase, wait for the next shot.
$ETH $ZEC 【New Coin Alert】AKE (Akedo) Short-Term Bearish Analysis 📉
Just checked the AKEUSDT chart. Although the AI sector is booming, this coin's current structure is very risky, and I am bearish in the short term:
Critical Circulation Rate: The circulation rate is only 22.79%! This means nearly 80% of the tokens are locked. For a newly launched coin like this, such a low circulation means the main holders can pump the price with a small amount of capital, but once they start selling, the support below will be very weak, making a crash likely.
Weak Candlestick Pattern: On the 15-minute chart, the price surged to 0.02999 but quickly fell back, leaving a long upper shadow. The current price hovers around 0.02857. Although MACD shows a slight golden cross, momentum is insufficient, and the RSI indicator is stagnating at a low level, indicating weakening buying interest.
Overvalued: As a newly issued project, a market cap of 4.2 billion is too high a premium for an unproven AI content platform.
Such new coins usually "peak at launch" and then enter a long period of value correction (gradual decline). It is not advisable to chase highs now; instead, consider short positions on rallies. ⚠️
#AKE #Akedo #Short #NewCoinAnalysis #CryptocurrencyThat's right, just keep it below 2400
If it drops a bit more, I'll continue to reduce my position
This short position has already reached the stage where it's just about taking profits
$ETH short position average price 2538, current price around 2400, floating profit 3500U. I reduced once before, now only 25 units left, the pressure to hold on is very small.
The one-hour low dipped to 2356, but the rebound stopped near 2400. 2400 has turned from support into short-term resistance; if it can't reclaim 2420, this rebound still counts as a repair after a breakdown.
$BTC limited rebound after breaking below 76,000, temporary support around 75,000, but the structure is not yet repaired. It continues to stay below 76,000, making it harder for ETH to reclaim 2400.
$ZEC rose 5% against the trend during the day, but there is still resistance near 1200. This is mostly high-volatility funds rotating, which temporarily cannot change the weak momentum of mainstream coins.
Reduce another portion near 2370 to lighten the remaining position further. Previous reductions have already secured profits; if it drops more later, I'll take more profits, so I don't have to endure a full retracement for the last few dozen points.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $PIEVERSE, according to cycle theory review, the current upward cycle starting from the low point has completed, exactly reaching the reversal time window at 1.2281.
The market has its own time rhythm; after the upward cycle ends, the original uptrend concludes, and the market enters a pullback adjustment phase.
Simulated a short position at 1.2281; the market subsequently declined, with a marked price of 1.154, yielding a simulated return of +120.67%.
Review insight: Analyzing the market should not only focus on price levels; when the time cycle resonates with key resistance levels, the reliability of short signals significantly increases. $ZEC $SNDK #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% Lido Emergency CEX Market Making Authorization: 1.5 million LDO + 480,000 USDC
An emergency plan was posted on the Lido forum: authorize the Growth Committee to initiate CEX market making when LDO exchange liquidity is insufficient or at risk of delisting — not to dump money immediately.
The window lasts 2 years; only when triggered will up to approximately $1.5 million equivalent in LDO be transferred from the treasury as recallable inventory, plus up to 480,000 USDC to cover up to 12 months of fixed service fees. Priority is given to the foundation's self-held account and API permission restrictions; market makers have no withdrawal rights, and lent LDO cannot be used for governance voting. You don’t get the "proposal passed = liquidity replenished" insurance; before triggering, the funds remain dormant in the treasury.
This is a reserved authority to prevent delisting, not a market slogan.$BTC returns near $75,764, $ETH around $2,398; the narrowing decline does not equal a trend reversal. After regulatory bills are blocked, the market needs new incremental funds to prove support; before the FOMC, traders tend to deleverage first. If BTC holds above 75,000 and spot volume rebounds, the rally can be seen as a risk appetite recovery; if the rebound lacks volume and ETH/BTC continues to weaken, prices may still retest previous lows. Watch the combined signals of trading volume, liquidation scale, and US dollar yields.
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike be implemented?多空来回折腾，真的要把人心态搞崩了 这几天的行情，说实话，比单边下跌还难做。
多头刚觉得要反弹，结果一根阴线下来；
空头刚追进去，价格又突然拉一波。
最难受的不是亏多少，而是方向刚判断对，位置却总是错。
现在市场就是典型的消息+震荡行情。
一边是美联储FOMC，市场在交易加息预期；
另一边是CLARITY法案受阻，监管预期降温；
再叠加日债收益率走高，全球风险资产的流动性预期也在变化。
所以BTC现在很容易出现这种走势：
跌——有人抄底；
反弹——有人追多；
冲高——多头止盈；
回落——空头进场；
然后再来一遍。
结果就是多空双方都被来回收割。
这种行情最怕什么？
怕你把震荡当趋势做。
如果没有真正突破关键位置，看到一根大阳线就追多，看到一根大阴线就追空，很容易两边挨打。
现在更应该关注的是价格能不能走出区间。
比如BTC前面已经下探到7.5万美元附近，那么这里有没有持续承接，就比短线一根K线重要。
如果重新收复关键压力位，并且成交量跟上，说明市场开始重新建立多头结构；
如果反弹一次次被压回来，低点继续下移，那就说明空头依然占据主动。
所以现在最好的心态不是：
“我一定要猜对下一根K线$SAHARA The overall crypto market sentiment is gradually cooling down, with a decline in market risk appetite, and on-exchange funds are generally shifting towards a risk-averse trading approach.
In a weakening market environment, small-cap coins that were heavily speculated on in the short term are under the most pressure, with funds rapidly fleeing, triggering a round of correction for these coins.
Simulated a short position at 0.009131, the market subsequently declined, with a mark price of 0.008155, resulting in a simulated return of +213.77%.
Review insight: Small-cap coins rarely break away from the overall market trend to form independent rallies. When market sentiment cools, the correction risk for highly speculated coins at high levels will be magnified multiple times. $ETH $ZEC #10年期美债收益率突破5% Bitcoin still went through a major bloodletting, as the CLARITY Act ultimately failed to pass the Senate.
Actually, this is somewhat regrettable.
Although without CLARITY, the SEC and CFTC will continue to push forward with regulation, there is still a significant difference between the two:
The former is about "how this administration plans to regulate," while the latter concerns "how U.S. law will regulate in the future."
Without congressional legislation as a foundation, the rules made by the SEC/CFTC today could still be modified by the next administration or challenged in court.
Moreover, without the CLARITY Act being implemented, it will actually continue to widen the regulatory gap between "big companies and small projects."
For companies like Coinbase and Robinhood, ambiguous rules are troublesome, but they have lawyers, compliance teams, and the ability to communicate directly with the SEC and CFTC;
For a startup team preparing to issue tokens in the U.S., the same uncertainty could directly mean "not operating in the U.S."
Industry participants on the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee mentioned that the past overlapping federal and state regulations and unclear rules have already caused companies to bear significant legal costs, even relocating products and personnel overseas.
Next, we look forward to the SEC and CFTC advancing rules according to their respective authorities.ETH faces dual short-term pressures from regulatory setbacks and macroeconomic expectations, but the on-chain fundamentals and institutional support remain intact in the medium to long term.
📉 Short-term pressure: regulatory disappointment and macro headwinds
The recent price movement is driven not by technical factors but by the failure of the U.S. "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" to pass the Senate procedural vote (result 50:49). This dashed policy expectations and triggered concentrated market risk aversion: Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,000, Ethereum dipped near $2,358 (currently $2,399), crypto stocks like Coinbase dropped 10%, and over 120,000 liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, with a high proportion of long position liquidations. On the macro front, high U.S. Treasury yields (10-year over 5%) increased the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets, directly suppressing valuations.
🛡️ Key support and technical patterns
Although the price broke below the short-term support at $2,400, capital has not fully withdrawn. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $216.4 million, with BlackRock as the main buyer, and on-chain data shows a recent large withdrawal of ETH from exchanges (about $300 million), easing short-term selling pressure. Technically, the area around $2,454 is a critical level to watch; failure to reclaim it may result in continued weak consolidation in the short term.
🧭 Medium to long-term highlights: the battle of value narratives
Ethereum's medium to long-term logic still centers on its role as a "settlement layer." On one hand, Ethereum holds about 44.7% of the transaction share among major Layer 1 networks and provides infrastructure in stablecoins and tokenized assets; on the other hand, industry financing and EIP proposals (such as reducing privacy costs) support the medium to long-term narrative. Whether it can hold its current position and await clarity on new regulatory frameworks is key to the future direction $ETH This round failed
The biggest mistake
was paying too much attention to the news
and ignoring the market information
Actually, I knew in my heart it would pull back
but I insisted on betting on the news
In this situation
most likely you will lose.HL's deflationary momentum is getting a bit scary... Just checked the on-chain and Jinse Finance data, and in the past 24 hours, Hyperliquid's single-day fees actually reached 3.12 million USD. Even more impressive, the official team directly uses 99% of the fees to buy back HYPE on the market, then immediately sends them to the black hole for permanent destruction!
Doing the math, that's nearly 3 million USD of real money acting as "buy orders" pulling the secondary market hard every day, and after buying, the tokens are destroyed, leaving no selling pressure at all. Burning like this every day, the deflation speed of HYPE's circulating supply is simply unimaginable.
Honestly, many platform tokens' buybacks nowadays feel like child's play, with low ratios and frequent gimmicks. HL's hardcore approach of 99% buyback and destruction is indeed rare.
As long as Hyperliquid's trading volume can be maintained, with this level of deflationary buy support daily, the supply-demand dynamics of the token price are likely to be forcibly reversed.
How long do you think this buyback intensity can last? Are there any big players who have been accumulating HL to share their thoughts? #贝森特听证释放多重信号 There is over a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and this pricing itself indicates that the market no longer sees tonight as a variable.
The real question is why, after oil prices surpass 100 and the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%, the Fed still has room to proceed at this pace. A more likely explanation is that it wants to use a definitive action to replace the more hawkish expectations in the dot plot.
Following the chain downward, the US Treasury yield is the denominator, risk assets bear the initial pressure, and the correlation between $BTC and the Nasdaq in this round has not yet broken.
The verification point is very specific: watch the median in the dot plot for next year; as long as it moves up from last time, tonight’s 25 basis points is just the beginning.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#中东能源风险推高油价 #10年期美债收益率突破5% $BTC BTC is pressured at the 75,000 threshold, which of the three major cryptos will crack first?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC at 75,700, continuing to drift down during the day. Before the rate hike is finalized, expectations will likely be slowly digested; after the hike, a rebound is possible. Down 2.5% in 24 hours, 75,000 is right at the doorstep. A 25bp rate hike tomorrow night is almost certain, with the 30-year US Treasury at 5.4% weighing down. If 75,000 breaks, look for 74,000; it is the anchor of the three major cryptos.
$ETH at 2,489, down nearly 2%. It failed to break through the 2,550 to 2,600 barrier and then slipped, showing it is half a step weaker than BTC. If the announcement tomorrow night is dovish, it will rally faster than BTC; if hawkish, it will fall faster than BTC, making it a double-edged sword.
$SOL at 102, the strongest among the three. It was bought up when it dipped to 98.66. Spot ETFs are still seeing inflows. Resistance lies between 105 and 108. When BTC is pressured at 75,000, SOL is relatively more resilient.
$OKB at 113.58, as BTC falls, funds increasingly seek refuge in platform tokens. With 21 million locked to mirror Bitcoin, the previous high of 142 is over 20% away. In a drifting market, it is the most stable base position.
$RE at 0.45, a small DeFi insurance RWA, with a market cap of 71 million and volume of 5 million, lying low until the risk arrives.
BTC is pressured at 75,000, SOL is the strongest, ETH depends on dovish or hawkish signals, OKB serves as the base, RE waits for the risk. Don't bet on direction before the announcement tomorrow night.$CORE Cold hard truth: The moment your unrealized loss breaks through 90%, you lose the right to choose your trades.
Cutting losses leaves only scraps; stubbornly holding on leaves only regrets. This is the predicament that deeply trapped investors cannot escape.
Massive unrealized losses lock all operations, turning investment into passive endurance. Tokens keep releasing, official Twitter remains silent for a long time, ecosystem implementation is far off, risks are fully exposed, and holders are powerless to change anything.
This mindset of giving up is the shackle that crushes the market. Trapped holders won’t add funds; at the slightest rebound, their first reaction is to flee. Selling pressure never stops, outside capital dares not enter, and there is no foundation for a market reversal.
Regrets devour rationality, and waiting replaces strategy. Holdings become nothing but self-comforting support. The miracle turnarounds many hope for are essentially a dream they don’t want to wake from.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and extremely risky. Positions in BTC, SOL, and XRP: Which to reduce first and which to keep after the bill is rejected?
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike land?
After the bill is rejected, the portfolio is like taking stock after an earthquake. Among BTC, SOL, and $XRP, you need to first distinguish which can still be used and which should be discarded.
#CLARITYBillVoteBlockedCausesControversy
$BTC rebounds at a minimum of 74,910, with strong support at 75,000, so it’s the one to keep, acting as ballast—don’t panic sell; $SOL is high beta, follows the drop but as long as BTC stabilizes and rebounds, it has the greatest elasticity. It’s conditional—if BTC holds 75,000, keep it to bet on a rebound; if it breaks 75,000, reduce half first; $XRP is directly related to the CLARITY bill, hit hardest by the rejection, with the weakest short-term sentiment, so it’s the one to reduce first—don’t bet on the bill reversing.
If the upcoming rate decision is dovish and BTC holds 75,000, SOL and XRP will bounce strongly; if the decision is hawkish and BTC breaks 75,000, SOL and XRP will be sold off first, while BTC will hold up. Reduce XRP first as it is directly hit by the bill, then look at high-beta SOL, and finally keep the steady BTC. After the negative news settles, don’t place your positions on the coins with the weakest sentiment.Negative factors are piling up, closely watching tonight's FOMC decision
Big coin $BTC and second coin $ETH market sentiment is clearly under pressure
CLARITY Act vote failed, crypto sector collectively plunged—Coinbase and Circle sharply declined, BTC and ETH simultaneously dived. Capital flow shows divergence: ETFs continue outflows, but institutional whales are buying BTC and ETH against the trend, intensifying the long-short battle
Key point: Tonight at 02:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Market expects a 25bp rate hike, with the upper limit at 4%.
Deutsche Bank warns: If no change, it’s a dovish surprise, creating a rebound window; if hike as expected, focus on the hawkishness of the dot plot
Not recommended to take heavy positions before the decision, staying out and waiting for results is safest. Volatility will be very intense tonight, the big direction depends on how the Fed expresses itself
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Circle, the issuer of USDC, launched its own L1 public chain Arc today — gas fees are paid in USDC, and the founding validators include BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, ICE, and Standard Chartered.
This is not "just another new public chain," but the stablecoin issuer stepping in to fix the settlement layer themselves. Officially, it's called an "open L1," but from day one, it’s not designed for retail users.
On the other hand, let me say this: two hours after launch, there are only 372 million USDC on-chain, accounting for 0.05% of the total USDC supply. This number is very small. Those now shouting "USDC is moving" have no evidence.
My judgment is that the real significance of this event is not the migration volume, but that it transforms the stablecoin issuer from a "coin issuer" into a "road builder." In the future, when regulators open doors and institutions want to go on-chain, the first choice may not necessarily be Ethereum, but possibly Circle’s own chain.
Today the market is down (BTC -1.7%, ETH -3.4%), and hardly anyone is discussing Arc. This kind of structural change, unnoticed by most, is worth remembering far more than the trending narratives.During the $CHIP price rise, a large number of traders followed the trend to open long positions. When the price reached around 0.04604, many long positions gradually hit the traders' set take-profit levels.
Closing long positions is equivalent to selling, and the concentrated take-profit by many bulls created selling pressure, directly triggering the market to shift from rising to falling.
Simulated short positions were placed at 0.04604, and the market subsequently declined, with the mark price at 0.03691. This simulation yielded a return of +396.61%.
Review insight: In the late stage of a rise, mass take-profit of long positions often transforms into bearish power, which is a very common cause of short-term market reversals. $ZEC $ETH #Strategy回购约1.39亿美元STRC Originally prepared for a loss, but it gave me a surprise, not used to it. Just finished lunch and checked the market, $UNI had strong sell orders at high levels with low trading volume, I judged it wouldn't break through, so I shorted directly. From 6.956 to 6.260, the short position gained +501%, nailed the rhythm this round.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest.
It did rebound in the middle, but each time it was pressed back down, volume couldn't keep up, too much of a bull trap. I warned then, don't catch a falling knife, resistance above wasn't broken, bearish view unchanged. UNI gave the answer, those on board should be waking up laughing.
First close 80%, take profits. Move stop loss to breakeven on the remaining 20%, let profits run if it continues down, and don't give back profits on a rebound. Don't be greedy for the last bite.
Waiting for good news, the market is not short of opportunities, but patience is lacking. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me, wait for a more stable position in the next round.
$ETH $LAB The U.S. Senate failed to pass this procedural vote: the final result was 49–50, while 60 votes are needed to move the bill to the next stage. The CLARITY Act was temporarily stalled, and the market quickly shifted to safe-haven measures. 📉 After the news broke, $BTC briefly fell below $75,000, and Coinbase and Circle shares also came under pressure. Previously, the market had already priced in some expectations for the bill's passage, and now this "policy premium" is being repriced. The controversy remains focused on several core issues: • The Trump family's conflicts of interest related to crypto assets • Stablecoin yield arrangements • State regulatory and enforcement powers • Consumer protection mechanisms These differences have not disappeared with this vote; instead, they have become key obstacles in negotiations once again. But this does not mean CLARITY is completely over. Republican lawmakers may still push for a reconsideration, and some are discussing restarting related negotiations before Congress recesses. Meanwhile, the market also needs to watch another path: if the legislative process continues to stall, the SEC and CFTC may advance some crypto policies through administrative rules and regulatory actions. ⚠️ For the market, what truly matters is not the outcome of a 49–50 strike, but whether regulatory power will come more from congressional legislation or from federal rulemaking. Short-term continued to watch: BTC $75K support → $78K–$80K resistance and trading volume after regulatory announcements,$BTC is currently around $75,800, with a 24-hour low near $75,000. On the 4-hour chart, the price has already broken below MA5, MA10, and MA20. After a rally to $79,600 followed by a pullback, the short-term trend is clearly weakening. Next, watch if it can hold around $75,000; if it continues to break down, it may drop back to the $74,000 area to find support. On the upside, first watch the $77,000 to $78,000 range—only if it climbs back above this will the rebound have some strength.
Today's market is also influenced by two pieces of news:
First is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The market mainly expects a 25 basis point hike, but this has already been priced in to some extent. What might truly impact BTC is the subsequent interest rate path and policy statements. A rate hike in line with expectations does not necessarily mean the market will rise; rather, be cautious of a possible pump-and-dump.
Second is the CLARITY Act. The Senate yesterday failed to advance it with a procedural vote of 49 to 50, far short of the 60 votes needed. This has already put pressure on crypto market sentiment in the short term. Whether the bill will be renegotiated or when it will be pushed forward again remains to be seen.
Now BTC faces the rate decision above and the bill setback below, so short-term volatility may be significant. First watch the $75,000 support and $78,000 resistance; don’t rush to interpret a single rebound as a trend reversal.
This is purely personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
$ETH $SOL
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 From the market pricing perspective, a rate hike is a high-probability event, but unexpected outcomes cannot be ruled out.
However, I think everyone should consider another question: "Can a rate hike solve this inflation?"
Looking at the August CPI month-on-month and core CPI, energy is still the main driver of inflation.
If rates are hiked but the Iran issue remains unresolved, will inflation go down?
If the worst-case scenario occurs, where the Fed hikes rates under market pressure but inflation does not decrease, what will happen?
When "high interest rates + high inflation" coexist, the Fed will ultimately be forced to choose between "sacrificing the economy (triggering a recession)" and "abandoning the 2% inflation target (raising inflation tolerance)."
This could mark the beginning of a major shift in macro trading themes.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Originally wanted to cut losses to appease the heavens, but the heavens weren't appeased, and the meat cooked itself. When the screen was full of green, many panicked and ran, I had just finished lunch and checked the market, $ATOM's rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, decisively shorted around 1.647.
That rebound was really just a breath short, no one caught it when it went up, hitting the rhythm just right feels good.
Didn't endure in vain, at 1.495, +467.51% nailed it. The earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome is really sweet.
Take profits when you should, first close 70%. Keep the remaining 30% at the protection level to the cost price, so the rebound won't make the profit uncomfortable.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they're the smartest. Wait for the new structure to come out, don't chase, there will be more opportunities, don't rush.
$ETH $ADA The clear bill didn't pass, and the surge in the probability of a rate hike doesn't mean disaster is imminent; in fact, if both the US and Japan raise rates, it effectively means neither has.
Many people wonder why rates are being raised when inflation and employment are not out of control. On the surface, the market is betting on Walsh, but essentially, Bassett is using the yen to backstop US debt. He is urging the Bank of Japan to raise rates to boost the yen, so Japan doesn't have to sell US debt to support the exchange rate.
If both the US and Japan raise rates together, the interest rate differential doesn't really change, so the impact on the market is very limited. Anchored by the yen, this rate hike is purely preventive and can be hedged by buying on dips in the futures market.
Looking back at history, even when Walsh speaks hawkishly, the market often holds up. Moreover, the upcoming FOMC meeting is very close to the midterm elections, and historically, almost no one dares to hike rates and crash the market during such a sensitive period.
From now until December, as long as oil prices are pushed below 90, the rate cut cycle will still start as scheduled. Keep a close eye on whether oil prices can fall below 90; don't scare yourself just because there's a 91% chance of a rate hike.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？