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$BTC's biggest pressure now may no longer be the Federal Reserve.
The Fed's 25BP rate hike has already been implemented, and the market had long anticipated it. What actually pushed BTC down to around 76,000 was the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance in the Senate.
This affects another logic:
Rising regulatory uncertainty → Decline in institutional allocation willingness → Crypto stocks fall first → BTC gets repriced accordingly.
Coinbase and Circle both saw significant drops that day, and BTC returned to near a four-week low.
So if BTC continues to weaken later, I won't simply attribute it to a "hawkish Fed."
The macro bearish factors are already clear, and regulatory expectations have instead become the new variable.
To retake 80,000 in this round, we may first need to wait for regulatory sentiment to recover.
$BTC $ETH $XRP has become one of the hardest hit in the past 24 hours, with its price falling to the $1.29-1.41 range, experiencing a 7%-10% drop within 24 hours. The failure of the CLARITY Act has dealt a particularly direct blow to XRP, as the market has been anticipating a clearer U.S. regulatory framework to resolve its long-standing legal uncertainties. Funds have rapidly withdrawn, and trading volume has surged, indicating a concentrated release of panic sentiment. Fundamentally, $XRP still has practical use cases in cross-border payments, but in the short term, it is completely dominated by sentiment. Technically, after $XRP broke key support levels, it entered an oversold zone; if a rebound occurs later, the elasticity could be significant, but resistance above remains heavy. From a human perspective, XRP is like a defendant repeatedly tried, with every regulatory development affecting emotions; this time, the Senate vote failure has once again disappointed holders. It was once highly anticipated to become a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto world, but now it is repeatedly frustrated by regulatory uncertainty. The sharp drop in the past 24 hours is more an emotional venting than a fundamental collapse. Investors need to be cautious about further regulatory news while watching for institutional buying at low levels. Short-term volatility may continue to intensify, while the mid-term outlook depends on whether the regulatory environment can improve. Any positive legal progress could quickly change the market’s pricing logic for XRP. #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 #星球日报 $ZEC funding rate has reached an astonishing -0.039%, indicating that more and more market participants are shorting with the mindset of "why hasn't it corrected yet despite being so high," which in turn fuels the strong bulls to push prices higher.
Yesterday, when the price hit 1366, the funding rate reversed to positive, so I immediately took a short-term short position and comfortably made a profit. Why not go long? Because the brief positive funding rate was just a false signal caused by shorts being liquidated; many still hold a bearish outlook. We need to wait until the funding rate stabilizes in positive territory and the majority of the market turns bullish before officially entering. A significant downward correction will definitely come, so be patient!
Additionally, since shorts are still being squeezed, if the funding rate remains around -0.039 by tonight, $ZEC is highly likely to hit a new high again. If it doesn't, it will consolidate sideways, with the whales earning funding fees by going long, then pushing prices higher after a few days of sideways movement. The signs of strong whale control are very clear, so everyone, stop stubbornly shorting!ZEC'S PARABOLIC RUN: MOMENTUM VS DISCIPLINE
Watching $ZEC jump from 1,102 to 1,394 in 24 hours reminded me how fast momentum can outrun patience. Up 166% in 30 days and 515% in 180, the chart looks unstoppable, but parabolic moves test discipline more than conviction. Volume near 169M USDT confirms real interest, yet chasing green after a run like this is where risk management matters most. Where do you draw the line between riding momentum and protecting profit?Active Trading Radar
$ETH buyer-initiated trades dominate, price recorded an increase: The current 15-minute K-line rose by 0.14%; in three sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers accounted for 19.2%, buyers 80.8%, with active buy volume approximately 4.21 times that of active sell volume; active buy amount exceeded active sell amount by $20.07M.
$DGAI price rise aligns with buyer dominance: The current 15-minute K-line rose by 0.24%; in three sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers accounted for 36.6%, buyers 63.4%, with active buy volume approximately 1.73 times that of active sell volume; active buy amount exceeded active sell amount by $15,900.
$SNDK seller-initiated trades dominate, price recorded a decline: The current 15-minute K-line fell by 0.103%; in three sets of 5-minute statistics, sellers accounted for 62.8%, buyers 37.2%, with active sell volume approximately 1.69 times that of active buy volume; active sell amount exceeded active buy amount by $222,600. The price decline and seller dominance mutually confirm each other, indicating a currently weak performance.
ETH, DGAI: Price increases and buyer dominance mutually confirm each other, indicating a currently strong performance.Thick smoke has already pressed the escape route down to knee height; this is not a controlled consolidation, but a high-risk fire scene that could trigger a full-room flashover at any moment.
Watching $SOL twitch repeatedly near the upper Bollinger Band at around 98.8, I instinctively glanced at the pressure gauge on my air respirator. I clearly felt my heart rate rising—this is a typical adrenaline rush triggered by "fear of missing out" and the "anchoring effect"—my body's animal instinct urges me to break through the door and attack, but reason must forcibly cut off this impulse.🧑🚒
In emergency rescue iron rules, getting out alive is always more important than extinguishing the fire source. RSI is hanging at 56.7 in the mid-temperature zone, smoke flow is chaotic, and the overhead beam is at risk of breaking at any time. If I blindly rush in now out of fear of missing the opportunity, it would be like igniting a fire in a sealed space with no smoke exhaust measures—purely a gambler's mentality at work.
I do not allow myself to cross the fire door without laying a safety guide rope. I must overcome loss aversion and lock all offensive desires into the defense box. Only when the fire subsides to the support defense zone and the temperature drops can the dry powder fire extinguishing procedure be initiated.🧯
- Target: $SOL 🟢
- Entry: 97.2 - 98.8
- TP1: 101.5
- TP2: 104.8
- SL: 95.5
Once the load-bearing wall bursts, the area must be cleared within three seconds. Breaking below the baseline means structural collapse; any hesitation to take one more look in the fire scene is just fueling the blaze.
#StrategyPlaybook #FireEscapeRoute七名民主党参议员表态，愿意两党合作推 Clarity 法案。消息来自三名知情人士，谈判还在“评估意愿”的阶段。
对项目方来说，这不算小事。法案真落地，发币、上所的合规路径会清晰一截，省下的律师费够养一个团队。
但“致力于”三个字我盯了很久。上一轮谈判卡在哪，没人提；年底前回不回桌，也只是意愿。
所以我的猜测是：这更像给市场递话，不是给项目方递规则。
连草案文本都还没影，就急着数通过的日期，未免太早。
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $BTC ETH
Under the dual pressure of legislative setbacks and macroeconomic expectations, ETH dipped to around 2358, currently priced at 2399 USD.
2454 USD is a key short-term resistance level; failure to reclaim it will maintain a weak consolidation. The critical support below is at 2286; a break below this will trigger large long position liquidations.
The funding side is under short-term pressure, but the medium to long-term fundamentals remain intact. The Ethereum spot ETF once saw a single-day net inflow of 216.4 million USD, with BlackRock as the main buyer; about 300 million USD worth of ETH has been transferred off exchanges on-chain, reducing selling pressure on the market.
ETH does not have an independent strong rally and mostly follows BTC, with stronger declines during downtrends.
The medium to long-term core narrative is blockchain as the "global settlement layer," with stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and Layer 2 ecosystems all built on Ethereum, capturing 44.7% of L1 network transaction share, and continuous progress on EIP upgrades.
Short term: High interest rate environment suppresses forward asset valuations; avoid bottom fishing lightly;
Medium to long term: Watch for regulatory framework implementation, interest rate declines, and ecosystem application rollouts. The Fed's rate hike is in place, is it really good news for crypto?
🏦 Early this morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate hike since July 2023 and the first major move under the new chair, Waller.
The dot plot is more hawkish: 16 out of 18 officials believe there will be another hike this year. Inflation forecast was raised to 3.7%, and the statement said just one thing — "Inflation remains elevated, today's action is to return to 2% faster."
📉 Let's clarify the market first: The market had already priced in over 90% of the hike before it happened. Bitcoin fluctuated between 75,000 and 76,500 before and after the decision. During Waller's speech, it briefly gave back gains but then pulled back near 76,000. No crash, no euphoria. The US stock market actually showed a more obvious sell-off at the close.
💡 So, is it really good news?
Fisherman gives three straightforward judgments:
1️⃣ A one-time rate hike itself is not good news. Rate hikes = more expensive money, tighter liquidity. Risk assets theoretically should be under pressure. Crypto especially depends on liquidity, that's common sense, don't self-delude.
2️⃣ A "fully priced-in" rate hike is often a short-term relief after bad news. Most have exited early, and after the decision, some dare to buy. This time is typical: news hits, volatility spikes, price doesn't break down. This is digestion, not a bull turn.
3️⃣ The real bad news is in the latter part: there will be another hike. The market fears not the 25 basis points already done, but the path ahead. The dot plot locks in "one more hike," and Waller repeatedly emphasizes inflation is "too high, too persistent." High rates for several more quarters hurt altcoins, high leverage, and DeFi more than Bitcoin.
🎣 To use a fishing metaphor: The tide hasn't fully receded, don't rush into deep water. Rate hikes signal the tide going out, not the tide coming in. Protecting principal is more important than chasing a wave of sentiment.
⚠️ Two pitfalls to remind yourself:
• Don't interpret "no crash" as "confirmed good news." No drop just means selling happened earlier.
• Don't add leverage after a hawkish dot plot. Before the next meeting, volatility will be greater than this time.
Fisherman's own approach is simple: keep the main position unchanged, reduce leverage first, keep enough cash and stablecoins. Wait for inflation data to truly decline and the dot plot to ease before talking offense.
What do you think about this rate hike? Is it "bad news fully priced in, time to buy," or "the high-rate cycle has just reopened"? Comment below with how heavy your current position is.
$BTC $ETH $OKB #贝森特听证释放多重信号
I can't directly take this hearing as a dovish positive signal.
Bond repurchases and sending money to residents must be accounted for separately.
According to Orbit topics, Besent defended yen intervention and U.S. Treasury repurchases at the September 15 hearing,
but at that time the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was about 5.04%.
He supports the $5,000 check plan, claiming it won't increase the deficit, but did not disclose the funding source.
Repurchases can improve bond trading, but that doesn't mean fiscal financing pressure disappears.
If sending money raises demand, it could also increase inflation stickiness.
Therefore, I pay more attention to whether the funding source can be clarified, and for now, I don't take the policy statements as new buying pressure for BTC.
$BTC #宏观观察BTC
BTC briefly dipped below 75,000, testing support near 75,000 at its lowest. The short-term key support is 75,000; if it breaks down effectively, the next target is the 70,000 liquidity zone. The upper resistance range is 78,000–80,000.
In the past 12 hours, the entire network liquidated $585 million, with long positions liquidated at $498 million, and BTC+ETH combined liquidations at $408 million, clearing out a large amount of long leverage.
Short-term leveraged funds are fleeing wildly, but spot ETFs maintain net capital inflows; Morgan Stanley's affiliated institutions continue withdrawing BTC from exchanges, accumulating on dips.
This is a typical divergence between long-term and short-term funds: short-term speculative leverage is swept out by panic selling, while long-term institutional funds slowly accumulate spot at low levels.
Before the FOMC announcement, rebounds are mostly weak and on low volume, making sustained large rebounds difficult.
Holding the 75,000 support: high probability of entering a range-bound consolidation, repeatedly digesting negative factors;
Effectively breaking below 75,000: there is abundant liquidity near 70,000 below, which will be further tested;
Focus on US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve speeches; if long-term bond yields do not fall back, the market will struggle to reverse its trend.Everyone was waiting for a bloodbath, but the market laughed.
The rate hike has landed.
BTC, ETH, $ZEC — the whole network was waiting for a waterfall drop, the bears had set up their short positions early, just waiting for that big bearish candle to harvest.
And the result? No drop.
Not only did it not fall, ZEC directly broke a new high again, pulling up a pillar of faith right in front of everyone. BTC and ETH didn’t exactly take off, but they stubbornly didn’t follow the script, standing firm in place, as if watching the bears perform.
This is the most classic market script — all the bad news is already priced in.
Think about it, how long has the rate hike been hyped? From expectations to panic, from panic to pricing, those who needed to run have long run, those who needed to cut losses have long cut. When the moment it actually lands comes, those still holding chips are no longer panicked.
Bad news everyone knows is no longer bad news.
The truly scary thing is never the obvious cards, but the unexpected black swan. Rate hike? The whole universe was waiting for it, so it became the least damaging news.
What’s even better — the waterfall didn’t come, and the bears’ patience is being worn down bit by bit.
Every candle that doesn’t drop is a squeeze. Every minute of sideways trading is draining the bears’ confidence. When they can no longer hold and have to cover, that’s when the real show begins.
What’s worth watching next isn’t the rate hike itself, but how the market trades this outcome.
The bad news landing is just the first act.
Lie back and keep watching the show. 🍿
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Good morning, the big show of the Federal Reserve FOMC last night has finally ended. I quickly checked my phone as soon as I opened my eyes this morning; BTC didn't crash, it even looks a bit resilient.
Current price is 76,264, up slightly 0.62% in 24 hours, with a low dipping to 75,055 before bouncing back. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages have started to flatten around 75,900 to 76,000, and the bullish alignment is gradually stabilizing. The price climbed all the way up from the lower Bollinger Band and is now above the middle band at 75,939, testing the upper Bollinger Band at 76,377. This trend clearly shows a recovery after "bad news has been fully priced in," with the previous slow decline fully digested.
But don't get too happy yet; this is just a stop in the decline, not a true reversal. The resistance zone remains between 76,500 and 77,000, and without significant volume, it’s hard to break through in one go.
My strategy remains unchanged: hold spot positions, avoid leverage. To those who didn’t get liquidated last night, congratulations on surviving. The darkest moment is over; now we slowly observe the direction and consider adding positions only after BTC fully stabilizes.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Guys, FIL really is the master of all kinds of dissatisfaction. On September 14, it just pushed us to 1.03, and the whole internet was shouting "halving the starting momentum." But in less than three days, it crashed back to 0.7972. This isn't a roller coaster—it's a jumping machine! 📊 Today's daily chart is packed with information. First, the MA20 has become the last fig leaf. The current price is 0.7972, just stepping right above the MA20 (0.7975). This is a daily life-or-death line. If you hold it, you could say it's a "pullback confirmation"; If you can't, below is the abyss of 0.75 and 0.70. Second, the MACD death cross is weakening momentum. DIFF crossed below DEA, and green bars (STICK -0.0049) appeared. Short-term bullish momentum has been exhausted, and now it's 'debt repayment time.' Third, SAR has flipped to 1.0338, which is a bearish warning. SAR has moved above the price, indicating that the short-term daily trend has turned bearish. Don't go against the trend; going long now is like catching a flying knife against the trend. Fourth, volume has shrunk. Today's trading volume is 12 million, which is much smaller than the previous days when there were 20 to 30 million runs. This shows that fewer panic buyers are cutting losses, but bottom-fishing hasn't entered yet. 🎯 What's next? Scenario A (high probability): Fluctuating between 0.75 and 0.82 to refine the bottom. At this level, the main force washed out short-term traders who rushed in at 1.03, and also cleared out high-leverage long positions. 0.75 is the current structural support. Scenario B (low probability): If it falls below 0.75, test it$UNITREE is completely doomed this time. A big shot from Tsinghua University, the founder of Mech-Mind, exposed massive fraud in the robotics industry with no real performance to back it up. Everyone can check out the article. I originally thought Unitree could still be worth 30-50 yuan, but now 3-5 yuan is about right. Companies that rely on storytelling and hype won't last long. If it doesn't delist within 3-5 years, that would be good. You must absolutely avoid these kinds of companies. When trading stocks, always buy companies with solid performance. Don't operate blindly. It's best to keep your position empty or light. 🙏🙏
From Unitree Technology - W Community90% chance of rate hike, even Goldman Sachs doesn't believe it
At the FOMC meeting in the early morning, the market priced in nearly a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
But Goldman Sachs told the truth: this surge in expectations is because the Federal Reserve doesn't want to reverse market pricing, not because inflation has truly worsened.
What they said:
PPI year-on-year 5.4%, CPI month-on-month 0.4%, oil prices above $100. If they hold steady, the credibility of fighting inflation will need to be explained on the spot.
Impact on crypto prices:
Once the hawkish signal is out, $BTC might test the previous low of 63,000. If interpreted as a protective rate hike, the fourth quarter could actually get a breather.
I've held $BTC for over two years, and I've seen many such early morning decisions. Whether the rate hike happens or not, I haven't moved a single share. The money of the five-guarantee households can't withstand this back-and-forth turmoil.
Let's wait for the direction to come out.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#中东能源风险推高油价 #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 $BTC Brothers, today's market movement is actually a re-pricing after the interest rate hike was implemented.
The Federal Reserve implemented a 25bp rate hike, but the year-end median rate remains at 4.1%, so it can't be simply understood as "rate hike ended = no more bearish factors"; the pressure of high interest rates still exists. Coupled with ETF fund outflows and the CLARITY Act being blocked, market risk appetite remains relatively cautious.
$BTC is relatively resilient, with support around 75,000; $ETH is noticeably weaker, repeatedly testing around 2400. Currently, it looks more like a consolidation and recovery after digesting bearish factors, not a direct reversal yet.
Going forward, focus on BTC at 75,000 and ETH at 2400; holding these levels means continued recovery, breaking below means watch out for a second dip. Honestly, retail investors really shouldn't get too emotional in this market; the back-and-forth is quite tough 🥹
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #Seventh day of the bullish moving average alignment, KDA plunges back to the midline: I won't catch this falling knife
$KDA is currently at 0.00412, a stock with a bullish moving average alignment for 7 days, 24h -9.2%, intraday range 0.00391–0.00455 — I'll reduce my position if it rebounds to the right spot, but won't catch the falling knife.
My judgment: short-term bearish, mid-term not bad — MA7 is still above MA30, but MACD just formed a death cross with expanding green bars, RSI at 44. BTC is sideways at 76408, the market isn't leading the trend, this plunge is self-inflicted.
Bearish logic: first, the rebound lacks fuel; second, the outer ring is dragging behind, concept stocks average -2.95%, COIN -4.42%; third, market cap about 1.49 million USD.
Resistance above: 0.00428 (1h SAR flips upward) → 0.00455 (24h high)
Support below: 0.00286 (Bollinger lower band, breaking this leads to deep water)
Watershed level: 0.00428. If it can't hold above, test 0.00286.
Conclusion: More likely the rebound will weaken and continue to consolidate, not a V-shaped recovery — daily ADX 25.3, multiple periods still bearish, wait for volume recovery above 0.00455 to turn bullish. If rebound at 0.00428 doesn't hold, reduce half position first; exit if it breaks below 0.00286. This account only speaks plainly, following saves time.
$KDA $BTCThe first rate hike in three years was 25 basis points, raising the interest rate range to 3.75%-4.00% and passing unanimously. The day before, the CLARITY bill didn't even reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate. After two stubborn blows, Bitcoin hovered around 75,000, and by the time of wrap-up, it was still around 75,000 (data from September 16, for reference only). This reaction looks very familiar to me, like a relationship that has long since fallen apart. You might think there will be arguments or slamming doors on a showdown, but the other party just calmly said, "Hmm, I understand." Calmness doesn't mean it doesn't hurt It just means the pain has already ended. The data says the same: that 3.3% bearish candlestick fell before the rate hike, not after the hike. The market swallowed up the bad news early. By the time the boots really hit the ground, no one had the strength to drop further. So what we should watch now isn't that 25 basis points, but the phrase hidden in the dot plot. There might be another time before the end of the year. Rates staying at high levels for another quarter will affect not this week's candlestick, but the cost of funding for the whole year. For RWA, this is actually an interesting window. Treasury yields get tougher The more attractive products like tokenized government bonds are, the more tangible they are. The same thing: non-yielding assets are suppressed, while interest-bearing assets are sweetened. My recent impression is that this market hasn't had a one-sided logic for a long time. Every macro variable feeds some people while starving the rest. So don't rush to find direction; first figure out which table you're sitting at. I'm not calling for trades or urging you to buy at the bottom—just one reminderBTC trading volume increased by 94%, 6 out of 9 coin samples still closed lower
The 1H candle from 08—09 has closed, BTC only rose 0.18%, but trading volume rose from 12,511,800 to 24,311,800 USDT, an increase of 94.31%; closed at 76,338.7, still not surpassing the previous six high points at 76,558.7.
At the same time, among the 9 coin samples, 6 fell and 3 rose, with total trading volume increasing by only 8.44%. BTC open interest increased by 0.81% from 07—08, differing from the spot window.
The next 1H candle must close above 76,558.7 with trading volume not less than 24,311,800 to continue the breakout; closing below 76,180 invalidates it. Would you use open interest or breadth to distinguish absorption and selling pressure?
#BTC #TradingWatchBrothers, the rate hike landed but the price barely dropped, confused?
This is called "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Before the announcement, there was a 92.5% probability of a rate hike, so the shorts fled early, and longs were eagerly picked up at the lows.
But don’t get too happy too soon. The dot plot shows 16 officials are determined to hike again, with year-end expectations soaring to 4.1%. The real thunder is still ahead.
Looking at the charts, BTC is at 76195, firmly suppressed by the 76857 moving average; ETH is at 2413, still held down by 2452. The only crazy one is ZEC, surging 7.66%, RSI hitting 89.5, clearly a pump-and-dump by a whale.
The current script is a "structural market," targeting high leverage. Don’t chase ZEC’s vertical spike like a mad dog, and don’t rush to bottom-fish with full positions. BTC must hold above 77000; otherwise, all rebounds are traps.
Keep positions light or empty. In this market, don’t make reckless moves. When BTC truly holds steady, the bloodied chips will naturally be everywhere.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Why didn't BTC sell off after the Fed hike?
The outcome was priced in 90–93% beforehand — the market was almost certain the Fed would hike, so when it actually happened, there was no negative surprise.
The "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon reversed: bearish bets were liquidated — in the first hour after the announcement, $90 million in short positions were closed, three times the amount of long positions liquidated.
BTC dominance slightly increased to 58.7%, indicating that despite volatility, investors still prefer to seek refuge in Bitcoin rather than altcoins.
$BTC On the afternoon of September 16 Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%~4.00%, with 12 votes in favor and 0 against, unanimously approved. This is the first rate hike since July 2023, more than three years later. Doing risk control here in New York, to be honest, this result is not surprising—what really kept me awake was that dot plot. The rate hike itself is a clear sign, but the dot plot is much more hawkish than the market imagined. CME data shows that the market-priced probability of a rate hike before the decision has soared to over 92%, and a 25 basis point hike is "consensus within consensus." So if you only look at "increase or not," this question was basically a suspense last week. But the dot plot is different. This time, the median rate on the dot plot was raised directly from 3.8% in June to 4.1%, meaning that beyond the already implemented 25 basis points, there is still one rate hike in the year. Of the 18 officials who submitted their forecasts, 16 believe there should be at least another hike this year, and 4 even think a total increase of 75 basis points is needed. In contrast, only 6 supported further rate hikes in June, which is quite a significant shift. What's even more noteworthy is the 2027 median rate being sharply revised up from 3.6% to 4.1%—meaning Fed officials basically don't expect a rate cut next year. At the press conference, Walsh was also very blunt: "Inflation is too high and has persisted for too long," with no intention of providing forward-looking guidance. In Wall Street's interpretation, this kind of wording is telling the market: don't expect me to give you a "finish" increaseAfter the interest rate hike was implemented, the most important thing for BTC is not that it rose, but that it did not break below 75,000 again.
The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25 basis point rate hike at midnight, raising the rate to 3.75%—4%. Even more hawkish is the dot plot: the median rate for the end of 2026 was raised from 3.8% in June to 4.1%, indicating that high interest rates may persist longer.
Logically, this is not good news for risk assets. But at 9:01 Beijing time, $BTC actually returned to 76,354, with the rolling 24-hour low of 75,055 not broken; $ETH rose to 2,422, and $SOL returned to 99.14.
This shows that some of the selling pressure had already been released in advance, but it’s still too early to call the bad news fully priced in. The immediate resistance for BTC is 76,560; if it holds with volume, then look to 77,000; if it fails to break through and falls back below 75,790, 75,055 will still need to be retested.
I won’t chase this rebound now, nor will I continue to short based on the word “rate hike.” The policy has been implemented; next, we should listen to what the price says: if the downside can’t be pushed further, that’s true strength; if the rebound can’t overcome resistance, it’s still a false move.
#OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 $BTC + $ETH | WHERE IS LIQUIDITY GOING?
$BTC remains the market’s key risk gauge, but $ETH shows whether liquidity is actually broadening beyond Bitcoin.
After the recent volatility, I’m watching market breadth more than price alone.
$BTC holds structure + $ETH regains momentum → liquidity may begin rotating wider.
$BTC holds while $ETH stays weak → the market remains BTC-led, with no clear confirmation of a broader rotation.
No need to predict. Let liquidity confirm. This news is quite intense, I just came across it, what does everyone think?
River (the company that provides BTC financial services) released a report written by Sam Baker. The core message in one sentence: the traditional 60% stocks + 40% bonds portfolio no longer works, and it is recommended that long-term investors allocate up to 10% to Bitcoin.
The data in the report is quite solid: from 1980 to 2020, the 60/40 portfolio had an annualized return of 5%-15%, but now with high inflation and heavy debt, the correlation between stocks and bonds has reversed. It even mentions that US national debt surpassed $40 trillion as of August 2026, and bonds are becoming less effective as a safe haven asset.
If 10% of bonds are replaced with Bitcoin, the simulated result over the past decade shows the portfolio's final value rising directly from $25,364 to $60,595! The most impressive part is that the maximum drawdown only increased by 6 percentage points, doubling returns without significantly increasing risk.
As of August 2026, Bitcoin accounts for only about 0.5% of global financial assets.
I just recently entered the space, and previously thought allocating 1%-3% of the portfolio to BTC was enough as a gesture, but seeing the 10% figure really shocked me... What do the experts think about this allocation ratio? Or is it just institutions hyping us to take the risk? $BTC #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 Woke up this morning checking the market, and I can only say the market is always predicting your prediction. Last night the rate hike officially landed, the Federal Reserve confirmed a rate hike again after three years. Logically, this should be bearish news, but the market had already fully priced in the expectation early on. When it actually happened, it triggered a rebound as if the bearish news was fully absorbed, and short positions collectively gave back profits.
The small base short position in $ETH reached a peak floating profit of 309%, but overnight it dropped back to 214%, losing nearly a third of the profit just like that; $FLOCK is even more precarious, barely turning profitable for a couple of days, its floating profit shrank directly from 20% to only 8.96%, almost back to square one; the most stubborn is still $CAP, completely ignoring the market trend, pulling up against the trend, with floating losses on the short position expanding to nearly 79%, the hole keeps getting bigger!
Since the market isn’t moving bearish as usual, stubbornly holding short positions betting on a drop will only grind away the remaining profits. I've made up my mind to find a position today to take profits and clear the profitable $ETH and $FLOCK positions, securing the gains in my pocket feels more reassuring. I'll keep watching the $CAP position for now; having held it this long, there’s no rush to cut it now.
What’s your take?Hyperliquid ($HYPE) showed a neutral to slightly weak performance in the past 24 hours, with its price fluctuating between $77 and $79, dropping about 1.5%-2%. As an emerging high-performance trading platform token, $HYPE is sensitive to market risk appetite. The failure of the CLARITY bill and interest rate hikes caused speculative funds to withdraw, leading it to follow the broader market's pullback. Fundamentally, Hyperliquid's trading depth and user growth remain worth monitoring, but it is currently driven by sentiment in the short term. Technically, after breaking short-term support, HYPE saw some low-level buying, but resistance above remains significant. From a humanized perspective, HYPE is like a novice trader whose rhythm is disrupted by short-term market volatility, yet the platform's trading depth and user growth still deserve attention. It once stood out in the market due to its high performance and low fees, but now its pullback also reveals a dependence on speculative funds. The pullback in the past 24 hours provides an observation window—if the ecosystem continues to expand, subsequent rebound potential is expected. In the short term, it is recommended to watch changes in trading volume and platform activity; in the medium term, whether it can maintain an edge amid fierce competition among trading platforms. Any breakthrough of key resistance could reignite market enthusiasm for HYPE. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 BTC briefly dipped below 75,000, testing support near 75,000 at the lowest point. The short-term key support is at 75,000; if it breaks down effectively, the next target is the 70,000 liquidity zone. The resistance above is concentrated between 78,000 and 80,000.
Although short-term funds are fleeing, there are signs of divergence. Spot ETFs still have net capital inflows, and Morgan Stanley's affiliated institutions are still withdrawing BTC from exchanges to accumulate on dips, indicating a behavioral split between long-term institutional funds and short-term leveraged funds.
In the past 12 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $585 million, with long position liquidations accounting for $498 million. BTC and ETH combined liquidations totaled $408 million, with a large amount of long leverage being wiped out. High leverage has amplified this round of sharp declines. Before the FOMC interest rate decision, the market is reluctant to be bullish, and most rebounds are weak retracements with low volume.Hakimi's turnover is basically over—will this be his highlight moment? Let's take a look at the data and you'll see! September 17, 2026 #哈基米 Changes in data for top 40 holding addresses: alpha: outflows 40 million gate1: outflows 180,000 new entries top 40: 5 people, 5 transferred in. Top 40 exits: 5 people in total, 2 transferred out, 2 reduced positions, 1 person sold normally Top 40 added positions: 7 people reduced positions in the top 40: 1 person $Hakimi Daily highlights: Of the 5 people who newly entered the top 40, 4 were transferred out of exchanges and 1 was from Gate. These addresses are most likely stocked by buying. Of the addresses that fell out of the top 40, only 2 reduced their positions, and another 2 transferred to Binance. After checking the chain for the net kills, the probability of these two people selling is still quite high. The top 40 have many who added positions, totaling 7, and the number of positions added is quite high. Among the top 40, only 1 person has reduced positions, so the number of positions reduced is very small. From the data, it's clear that the market has basically stabilized, selling is significantly reduced, and many are increasing positions at this level. Binance Alpha has seen a lot of outflows, and it's possible that some people plan to deposit coins and hold on-chain for long-term gains. It seems that most people who have changed hands due to contract listing have mostly switched. Next, it depends on whether the market will still buy in or not. That's about it. Single kills will be continuously monitored to see who is stronger on both the bulls and bears going forward. If there are any changes, the single kill will be updated quickly. See you next time, brothers! Important reminderLast night, the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp as expected, but the real negative factor is not this 25bp hike, rather the dot plot: 16 out of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year. BTC is currently holding around $75.8K, not continuing to collapse after the hawkish Fed; meanwhile, Brent has fallen back from over $108 to $105.83. My judgment is: BTC has entered a phase where "regulatory negatives have basically been priced in, but the interest rate ceiling is raised again," and the most critical factor going forward is whether the 10Y yield can fall back below 5%. BTC and ETH are both up roughly 1.3% over the latest 24-hour window, while XRP is also recovering after yesterday's heavy selloff. But don't confuse a bounce with a clean reset: the market is still digesting $570M+ of Long liquidations, a failed CLARITY Act vote and the Fed's first rate hike in three years. THE MARKET JUST GOT TWO VERY DIFFERENT SIGNALS Yesterday was basically a two-punch combination. First came the CLARITY Act failure. The U.S. Senate's procedural vote ended 49–50, below the 60Upbit has launched three markets for PYUSD and JPYC at once: KRW, BTC, and USDT.
This move is quite bold.
But don’t rush to call it bullish just yet.
From another perspective, who feels the most pressure?
KRW trading pairs going directly to stablecoins means the local premium margin is further diluted.
Previously, Korean retail investors had to take a few detours to trade stablecoins.
Now the door is wide open.
More money coming in is good, but it also means more counterparties.
I guess Upbit’s real target with this move is the liquidity wave of Japanese yen stablecoins.
PYUSD is backed by PayPal, JPYC is native to Japan, launching both together sends a very clear message.
The biggest question in the community now is whether the old Korean capital will accept these two new players?
Anyway, I’ll watch the trading volume first and won’t rush to judge.
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $PYUSD The first reaction from the funding side is more honest than the narrative: the CLARITY Act failed to pass by 10 votes, forcing the expectation of regulatory dividends to be put on hold, while oil prices surging to 110 is the real source of pressure. Inflation concerns have once again suppressed risk appetite and weakened market confidence in policy support. $BTC last night tested 76000 for the fifth time but failed to hold, hitting a low of 74955, and is now back around 76060, with resistance at 76850 during the day. Both bulls and bears are waiting for signals at this moment; 75000 is a short-term cover—holding it can provide some relief, losing it shifts focus to 73500; and if 76850 is not broken, the rebound is ultimately just a rebound and should not be mistaken for a reversal. $ETH and $SOL are similarly constrained by overall liquidity sentiment. If oil prices continue to rise, interest rate expectations will further suppress valuations, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound. In terms of observation conditions, pay attention to the support strength at 75000 and the willingness to break through 76850. Before these are clear, chasing shorts or bottoms is premature; waiting for a stable position before acting is safer. Risk reminder: This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please manage your positions carefully. Brothers, after the Federal Reserve's rate hike was implemented, Dabing Er Bing continued to decline, but a counterintuitive signal appeared on the capital side.
$BTC $76,300 | $ETH $2,420
Bitcoin fell about 1.5% in 24 hours, slipping from above $77,000 to around $76,300, and briefly touched $75,000 intraday. Ethereum also weakened to $2,420, down about 2.5%. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike in the early morning; the dot plot suggests another hike may occur within the year, with Wash clearly stating that "the inflation trend has yet to be tested."
The CLARITY Act was rejected, but ETF funding became divided
The Senate voted 49 to 50 on the CLARITY bill in a procedural vote, and the probability of passage on Polymarket plummeted to 5%. However, liquidity showed a strange divergence: Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $450 million, the largest outflow since June; Ethereum ETFs remained relatively resilient; although Fidelity FETH saw outflows, BlackRock's ETHA still maintained net inflows.
This decline feels more like leveraged long positions being liquidated, rather than institutions making a systematic retreat. The key is to see how the market digests the market after tonight's Fed decision.
Let's talk in the comments section: After the rate hike is implemented, will you bottom-fish or continue to crash? 👇
#本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes be implemented?
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 The market flickered, BTC slid one notch from around 76.4K, and I was quicker than I thought, almost adding another amount. Do we forget "discipline" faster than the price every pullback? This week, I reopened my positions. BTC is steady around 76.4K; now it's more like an emotional floor, not an engine. ETH hovers around 2.45K, repeatedly suppressing it at 2.50K. Narratives like DeFi, smart contracts, and tokenization remain, but the price hasn't been confirmed. LIT is around 4.29, with noticeably wilder volatility. The flip side of high beta is that it rises quickly and rebounds quickly. My mistake is treating these three as the same type of risk. Actually, they play completely different roles. BTC is the anchor, used to judge whether overall risk appetite has collapsed; ETH is the middle layer, where it depends on ecosystem confidence and whether funds are willing to take on further exposure; LIT is a sentiment amplifier, suitable for small positions testing rhythm, not for heavy positions betting on direction. If the CLARITY Act advances, the market's first reaction may not be a broad-based rally, but a re-selection of sides. Which assets will be treated as compliant entry points, and which will be treated purely as sentiment targets will be repriced. Part of this expectation has already been priced in, but I think many people don't realize that the real transmission sequence might be BTC stabilizing first, then ETH confirming, and finally a high-beta catch-up rally. Conversely, if BTC can't hold above 76K, the altcoin rebound is most likely just an escape wave, not a trend. So I'm not in a rush to prove I'm right,$CAP $CAP /USDT This order book is quite interesting, with orders around 0.0611 going back and forth. After the K-line volume shrinks, it suddenly expands, like funds are battling. There's significant selling pressure above, and the dog whale might shake the market with a fake breakout first. My approach is to test lightly; if it breaks the key support, I'll admit I'm wrong and won't be stubborn. What do you think—is this a setup or a bull trap? Raise your hand if you're on the same page. 👇👇👇$WLFI moved another 88 million tokens to Binance: Is it really preparing to sell this time?
A multi-signature wallet of WLFI just transferred 88 million tokens, worth about $5.09 million, into Binance, and in the past month, a total of 248 million tokens, approximately $13.55 million, have been transferred in. A single transfer to an exchange doesn't equal selling, but continuous transfers to Binance start to look different.
More importantly, WLFI has had similar "transfer first, then trade" operations before. At the project's launch, the team specifically emphasized "no team members sell tokens early, only presale unlocks." Looking at this batch of multi-signature addresses now, it at least indicates that circulating tokens are actively approaching the market. Currently, WLFI has about 31.8 billion tokens in circulation out of a total supply of 100 billion, meaning only about 31.8% is circulating, so supply pressure has always been significant.
The price also tells a story: WLFI is currently around $0.057, with a market cap of about $1.8 billion, and in the past month, it has mostly fluctuated between $0.055 and $0.06. This means the market hasn't treated these transfers as panic selling, but also hasn't given it any premium.
What really needs to be watched is whether there is continuous selling pressure after the 248 million tokens enter Binance, and whether the multi-signature wallet continues to transfer more. As long as the transfer frequency keeps rising, the market will start to price in "new supply" for WLFI in advance; if the tokens stay on the exchange for a long time without moving, it might just be market making or liquidity management.If the Federal Reserve this time is not just verbally hawkish but actually pulls the trigger on rate hikes, global capital costs will be pushed higher again, and high-volatility assets like those in the crypto space are usually the first to be reduced.
$BTC faces resistance from moving averages above, with rebounds lacking fresh momentum; when macro conditions tighten, bulls tend to stay cautious. As long as the FOMC signals continued tightening, downside support will repeatedly be tested.
$ETH lacks independent catalysts and still follows $BTC's lead. With risk-free yields rising and leveraged capital costs increasing, buying interest shrinks, making downward moves more elastic than upward ones.
$SOL exhibits pronounced high Beta characteristics, leading gains when the market is good but also leading declines when liquidity tightens. Once speculative funds withdraw, its pullbacks are often deeper than $BTC's, so don't rush to bargain hunt.
$DOGE has strong sentiment attributes, with retail holdings concentrated; when risk appetite drops, it is prone to panic selling, and rebounds are usually short-lived.
The real focus should be on the tone of the statement, the interest rate path chart, and the Q&A during the press conference. As long as the hawkish tone is strong, reduce positions, set stop losses, keep some dry powder, and avoid being caught in two-way losses around the news release. $BTC #ThisWeekFOMCReveal, Can the Rate Hike Land?
📊 $BTC & $ETH In-Depth Review Today
Two heavy blows landed simultaneously: The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years, and the CLARITY Act was defeated in the Senate. Coinbase plunged 8%, Circle dropped 11%. Short-term holders collectively face an unrealized loss of $1.8 billion and sent 23,000 BTC to exchanges. Yet even so, BTC still holds around 75,900, and ETH remains above 2,400.
What does this mean? The bad news has mostly been digested by the market, but conditions are not yet ripe for a full rebound.
For BTC, from 74,925 to 75,040 and then 75,220, the price base has slightly lifted, selling pressure is weakening, but buying has not truly taken over yet. The key now is 77,200: if it can't reclaim this level, the range-bound consolidation continues; if it can recover, the bear-dominated structure may be broken.
For ETH, 2,666 is not the end of this round. More noteworthy is the on-chain chip movement: the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC has risen to 90, a six-month high; since late July, whales have accumulated about $1.5 billion BTC. Retail investors are selling in panic, while whales quietly accumulate—this scenario has occurred more than once in history.
Current two defense lines: BTC 75,000, ETH 2,242. The logic is consistent: downward momentum is dulling, and the market is waiting for a reason to move upward again. This is a "no surprise" session, and that is the most positive point. The Fed raised by 25 points, a tougher message than expected, but Bitcoin only fluctuated narrowly, not creating a new bottom → selling pressure has actually weakened significantly.
However, the recovery will not be fast; it requires accumulation time. During this phase:
75,000 USD is the psychological boundary — above it = safe to accumulate; below it = caution needed. Prioritize splitting capital, do not buy all at once
Don't expect a quick rise — Bitcoin is in a patience phase As expected, no surprises: a 25 basis point rate hike as scheduled, raising the rate range to 3.75%-4.00%. Waller's speech was neutral to hawkish, but the market had already priced in this rate hike. BTC's chart showed no major fluctuations, still oscillating steadily between 74,950 and 77,200.
📉 Market Overview
After the FOMC decision was announced, $BTC hovered around $75,700 within minutes of the statement release, barely moving from pre-decision levels, while U.S. stocks stabilized simultaneously. There was some outflow from ETFs, with about $455 million in crypto liquidations. But honestly, this level of volatility is nothing for a rate hike day.
On the 4-hour chart, the price stabilized after touching the lower Bollinger Band. KDJ and RSI indicators both turned upward, and MACD bearish volume continued to shrink, indicating accumulating momentum for a short-term rebound. The 75,000 level remains strong support; multiple retracements near 76,000 were quickly recovered, showing solid buying pressure. Resistance lies between 77,000 and 78,200, with the 80,000 mark still capping gains.
In short, the range remains intact, and the trend is unchanged. As long as 74,950 holds, the bull market structure remains intact, and dips are buying opportunities. Chasing shorts or longs at this level is pointless; it's best to patiently wait for reactions at the range boundaries.
🦅 News Highlights
Waller's key message was simple: inflation is too high and has lasted too long.
He did not signal the start of a prolonged series of rate hikes, which is itself a bearish factor. However, he also did not provide reassurance to the market—he refused to offer forward guidance or predict any future decisions. More importantly, the dot plot threw a curveball: the median rate forecast for the end of 2026 was raised from 3.8% to 4.1%, with 16 members expecting at least one more hike this year, compared to only 6 in June. Market bets on two more hikes by year-end are heating up, with the probability of an October hike exceeding 53%.
Another intriguing detail: Waller refused for the second consecutive time to submit his own dot plot forecast. He is deliberately downplaying the dot plot's guiding role, forcing the market to rely on data.
He also made it clear at the press conference that future meetings will focus on data, outlook, and risk balance. So upcoming CPI, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls will be the real steering wheel. August's overall PCE year-over-year increase is expected around 3.6%, with core PCE about 3.2%, indicating inflation is still slowing down slowly. As long as data does not show a clear weakening, the possibility of another hike this year remains.
However, Waller did not close the door completely. He emphasized that achieving the goal does not require damaging the labor market and believes that price stability and full employment are not in conflict in the medium term. This sounds moderate but essentially means—he thinks rate hikes will not materially impact employment, so there is no reason not to hike.
💎 Summary
The rate hike is in place, Waller is hawkish, the dot plot is scary, but BTC did not crash. After the bearish news was priced in, the market returned to its own rhythm, continuing to oscillate within the range. Going forward, two things matter: whether 75,000 can hold, and whether CPI and PCE can provide real signals of inflation decline. Until these two variables become clear, don't get carried away—just trade within the range.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #OKX百万规划师 This big cut by Bitcoin is a cut to people's hearts
$ETH is waiting for $BTC to give direction, $SOL is waiting for ETH to give direction, and altcoins are waiting for everyone to give direction. The rhythm of the entire market is now held in the hands of macro liquidity and regulatory sentiment, not in your candlestick chart.
Control your hands, this phrase sounds easy. But to truly "control your hands," you need to be clear about three things:
First, is your current position offensive or defensive? If offensive, where is your stop loss? If defensive, how long will you hold? Holding without an answer is not faith, it's gambling.
Second, do you believe in logic or your own cost basis? Many people go long and gradually forget why they entered in the first place. When the price falls, the logic doesn't change, but the mindset does; when the price rises, the logic also doesn't change, but greed comes.
Third, the market doesn't need you to be orderly; it just needs you not to make decisions when things are chaotic. Late-night chart watching, emotional highs, fingers on the order button—when these three conditions appear simultaneously, over 90% of the trades will be regretted afterward.
BTC is not for gambling. Its drop doesn't mean you should catch the bottom; its rise doesn't mean you should chase. It's just a tool that allows you to survive and wait for the next cycle after you understand yourself.
The rest, leave it to time.
But the premise is—you must first survive until the day time stands on your side.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #中东能源风险推高油价 #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 Consider the current setup: 🟠 $BTC → down roughly 5% from its recent local peak 🔵 $ETH → open interest has shed around $1.2B 🟣 $SOL → funding has moved below zero 😬 Fear & Greed → sitting near 48, showing caution but not extreme fear So where is the real flush? We’ve seen leverage come out, sentiment cool off, and major coins pull back — yet there hasn't been the kind of widespread panic usually associated with a classic capitulation event. That makes the current structure interesting. MaybeThe dot plot no longer includes the option of no rate hike. Among 19 people, 16 advocate continuing to raise rates; in June, 8 still wanted to wait and see, but now that number is zero.
From the perspective of the opposing side, the market had only priced in this one hike before, with no premium left for subsequent paths. The disagreement has shifted from whether to hike or not to how much to hike, so the pricing focus has generally moved upward.
Once expectations for higher and longer-lasting interest rates are confirmed, the valuation denominator for risk assets will be suppressed, with $BTC taking the lead and $ETH following. This transmission chain can currently only be confirmed at the expectation level.
Watch whether the number of people advocating to hold steady in the next dot plot returns to non-zero. If it remains zero, the suppression logic holds; if someone loosens, the judgment must change.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC $ETH Trump's speech this time was summarized in four sentences: 1. Interest rates are too high → hopes the Fed will cut rates. 2. Support for Wash→ hope the Fed chair remains independent, but think the board is too difficult to handle. 3. Hope the Iran war ends soon→ Iran also hopes for negotiations. 4. Warning Europe→ If the EU's arrangements toward Canada are seen by the US as hostile, the US may impose high tariffs. Trump wants low interest rates and hopes for a cooling of the war, but at the same time issues a warning about European trade relations. Trump hopes for rate cuts, and if the situation in Iran eases, it will be favorable for risk assets; But the Fed remains hawkish for now, which will continue to suppress ETH in the short term.$BTC boot dropped, but this is a “hawkish boot” — BTC/ETH is not liberation, it’s “still dancing with shackles after loosening”
Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp at midnight → 3.75%–4.00%, the first rate hike restart in 2023; dot plot shows 16/18 officials expect one more hike this year.
The market had priced in the “25bp hike,” but not the “additional hike and median rate at 4.1% sustained until 2027.”
So the outcome is very typical:
BTC probes 75,000 → pulls back to 75,700–76,500 (oversold correction, not a reversal)
ETH probes 2,390 → pulls back to 2,410–2,430 (softer than BTC, altcoin resilience hasn’t returned)
US 10Y Treasury yield still capped at 5%, USD stands at 100, ETF flows crushed by CLARITY Act + rate hike double whammy
Rate hike landing ≠ bad news fully priced in.
The real pressure is that statement: “One more hike this year, no easing before 2027.”
BTC at 75,000 didn’t crash because of strong fundamentals; ETH at 2.39 didn’t break down because of good luck.
What’s next is not a “bull comeback,” but a “rebound—pullback—reshuffle within tight liquidity.” $ETH $ETH Martingale is still running, finally catching a breath after the rate hike landed
I only have this one position left now, an ETH contract Martingale, long with 14x leverage, running for 1 day and 11 hours. Total invested 40U, total profit 1.3U, return rate 3.3%, floating profit is also positive at 3.46%.
Yesterday early morning, the Fed indeed announced a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the rate to 3.75% to 4%. The market had already priced this in, so after the announcement it actually felt like "all bad news is out." BTC bounced from around 75,000 back to 76,400, ETH also pulled back from 2,358 to 2,424, an increase of about 1.3%.
The reason this ETH Martingale trade is profitable is mainly because it started at a low point, average price 2,407, current price 2,424, just slightly below the take-profit price of 2,463. It weathered two fluctuations in between, with a temporary floating loss when it dropped to 2,358, but the strategy automatically added 8 times, lowering the average price, which has now become an advantage.
What’s next? There’s still Wash’s conference tonight. If he says "let’s pause after this hike," ETH might directly run to 2,500, and this trade can smoothly take profit; if he stubbornly says "we still need to keep hiking," it might grind around 2,400 for a while longer. Anyway, my position isn’t big, 14x leverage but only invested 40U, so I can hold on and see.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC
The most important thing for $BTC in the next three months is not to fantasize about the bull market returning immediately, but to verify whether 58,000 is truly the bottom of this bear market.
From 58,000 to 82,800, the increase is nearly 43%, which looks more like the first strong recovery after a deep bear market drop. Now, with the pullback from 82,000, I prefer to define it as a stage top rather than a normal consolidation in a bull market.
What makes this bear market different from the past is the ETF, institutional funds, and long-term holders' support, making it harder for BTC to replicate the straight-line crash seen in 2018 and 2022.
But ETFs are not perpetual motion machines. With capital outflows reappearing in mid-September and derivatives leverage not fully cleared, I don't think 76,000 can directly start the second main rise.
My main path for the next three months is: first a drop, then consolidation, and finally choosing a direction.
72,000 is the first support
68,000 to 70,000 is the most important observation zone
64,000 to 66,000 is the last defensive line of the bottom structure
If after retesting 68,000 to 70,000 the volume shrinks and stabilizes, ETFs resume continuous inflows, and the US stock and bond environment improves, then 58,000 will very likely be confirmed as an important cycle bottom of this bear market.
Later, challenging 80,000 to 82,000 again, only a real breakthrough of 83,000 to 86,000 will make me start discussing a trend reversal. Conversely, if 64,000 is effectively broken, 58,000 will likely be tested again, and in extreme cases, watch out for 52,000 to 55,000.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected early this morning, with BTC breaking through $76,000 against the trend and ETH surpassing $2,400. Why is the market celebrating amid tightening expectations?
The core logic is: the market has never traded on the "rate hike" itself, but on the elimination of "uncertainty." Previously, the market was repeatedly pulled between a 50% chance of "hike or no hike," forcing funds to reduce positions early to hedge risks. Now that the shoe has dropped, the bad news is fully priced in, fragile bulls have been washed out, and the chip structure is actually cleaner.
But the real risk lies in the dot plot: 16 out of 19 officials expect to continue raising rates next year, with the median rate pointing directly to 4.1%. This far exceeds the previous optimistic expectation of "only one hike," exposing the reality that Waller struggles to suppress the internal hawkish camp. The 25 basis points is just the opening move; the crypto market's rise is not a misread but traders front-running the expectation gap that the "rate hike cycle is not over." $BTC $ETH $ZEC