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$ZEC in 24 hours +10.94% versus BTC +0.28% — difference +10.66 p.p.
With a position at 73% within the daily range, the question is simple: is this real relative strength or is the movement already fading? Today I took some time to look at the charts of ONE and NEAR, just to talk about the trends I observed. I have no money to enter the market, so I only track the charts without making any trading references.
First, let's talk about NEAR.
Compared to the overall market, NEAR showed relative resilience today. The smaller timeframe candlesticks are slowly moving upward along the moving averages, and there was no huge volume spike, but continuous buying support can be seen below. The price broke above the small consolidation range from the past two days, and the short-term technical pattern has not deteriorated for now.
From the chart characteristics, as a well-established public chain, it carries an AI-related narrative and has consistently attracted market attention. However, there is a significant amount of historical trapped selling pressure above, making this level prone to oscillation and shakeouts. Currently, we can only observe whether it can maintain the breakout platform; if the support weakens, it could easily fall back to retest.
Now looking at ONE.
ONE showed significantly increased intraday volatility, with large orders occasionally testing the market, indicating active capital movement within the order book. However, the overall turnover rate has not increased correspondingly, meaning there are test orders but no large-scale deployment yet.
This coin has a history of many sharp spikes and is highly volatile. Although there are short-term anomalies in the order book, the sustainability of the rebound heavily depends on the overall market environment. Once the market weakens, its price pullbacks tend to be severe. At this stage, it is only suitable to monitor order book changes and observe whether capital can continue to enter.
This is purely a chart observation record without any directional judgment.
What do you think? Is NEAR's recent breakout a valid breakout or a bull trap? Can ONE's large test orders in the order book sustain momentum going forward?The proportion of options has risen from 25% to nearly 50%
In Bitcoin derivatives, options now account for almost half.
First, what others think: options are for institutions.
Short-term traders watching the market still focus on the funding rate of perpetuals.
Where does this money come from: the volume of fixed-term futures has dropped 97% since 2021.
Leverage hasn't disappeared; it just moved elsewhere.
How is this number calculated: options are the right bought in advance.
Whether the price reaches it or not, the transaction is made at the agreed price.
Short-term traders watch perpetuals, institutions buy options; these two groups are not in the same market.
When the funding rate stops moving, that will be the real change.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC A big rebound is coming, but don't rush to chase it
Bitcoin fell from 80,000 to 75,000, a pullback of over 5,000 points, and has been consolidating for a month. During yesterday's sharp drop, there was clearly a large buy order near 75,000 that caught the fall, so it couldn't drop further.
But don't rush to shout "Is this the bottom?" Looking at the indicators, MACD hasn't formed a golden cross yet, and RSI hasn't reached the oversold zone, so it's entirely possible to test 73,000 further down.
My strategy is simple: buy spot in batches, avoid contracts.
$BTC 75,000 and 73,000 are the levels where I will buy spot in batches. I've been calling these two levels since the end of August, and they've already seen countless rebounds and withstood waves of negative news. If you only pick one level, around 75,000 is a good price for both short-term rebounds and long-term positioning; if you want to be safer, wait to add more at 73,000.
$ETH Similarly, 2,360 is the first support, and 2,200 is the next. You can slowly accumulate spot, and wait for a more stable level for contracts.
$CRCL I'm also buying back on dips. I sold at the top around 97 before, and then it dropped 20%. With such a drop, not buying would be unfair to myself. It rebounded to 84 today, and there might be a short-term pullback. I'll take partial profits first and hold the rest.
The core message is: sell when everyone is shouting, buy when no one is paying attention. After escaping the top at high levels, the task now is to buy back on dips, take it slow. Long-term positions are necessary, short-term profits should be taken, but spot is always the safest choice. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $76,000.
The dot plot has raised the median expectation for the end of this year to about 4.25%, which means there is still room for another rate hike later. On the risk asset side, with cash and Treasury yields rising, capital naturally becomes more selective.
Institutional packaging layers are also offloading. On September 15, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $450 million, and on the 16th about $300 million, totaling just over $700 million in two days.
On the same day, the Ethereum spot ETF also had a net outflow of over $200 million. BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, and Ark ARKB all saw outflows. On the short-term contracts side, there were also many liquidations in the first hour after the rate hike announcement, with a high proportion of shorts being squeezed—so you might see prices not necessarily crashing, but positions and sentiment have already shaken out once.
Technically, I’m watching two levels. The near-term support is first at $75,000: it was pushed down and then recovered this week; holding this level means selling pressure hasn’t fully broken through. The resistance above is around $76,700; if the daily chart can’t hold above this continuously, the lower boundary of the range will become more solid. Going higher, for a proper rebound, I’d like to see $77,000–$78,000 held again, preferably accompanied by a narrowing of ETF outflows. If $75,000 is lost, the next commonly cited support level would be around $71,000–$73,000.
Putting this all together, my inclination these days is to wait and see—not rushing to go long, nor chasing to short aggressively. $MET September 17 Quick Overview: Current price 0.209, liquidity thinned due to capital flight, significant decline. Short-term support at 0.20.
My position: MET perpetual short, 20x leverage, opened at 0.2436, now marked at 0.209.
Unrealized profit +284.07%, direction completely correct.
A reminder: There is buyback support but unlocking selling pressure remains, high leverage can crash anytime.
Summary: If you are right, take profits; once full, exit; protecting profits is the most practical. $ZEC $SOL $ETH whales are accumulating, but 2,435 is a key watershed
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
On-chain data shows a contrasting pattern of "whales hoarding, retail panicking." In the past 8 hours, a whale address bought 5,368 ETH at an average price of $2,422, spending 13 million USDC. Another address withdrew 4,827 ETH from Coinbase, worth about $11.52 million, at a withdrawal price of $2,416. Before and after the rate hike, whales have been continuously accumulating.
However, there is a clear divergence in technicals. Analyst Ali points out that ETH is still trading within the preset channel on the 4-hour chart, currently touching the short-term support area at the lower edge of the channel. The market is focused on whether ETH can rebound to the midline and test the upper edge of the channel near $2,570; if it closes above this level with volume, it could further target $2,700 to $3,000.
Short-term traders believe the rebound of ETH after the FOMC rate hike is a technical correction of "bad news priced in," recommending short positions in the $2,430–2,440 range with stop-loss above $2,455, and the first target at $2,390–2,400. The core logic is that ETH, as a high-beta asset, is much more sensitive to liquidity tightening than BTC.
Operational reference: pay attention to support in the $2,410–2,420 range; if support holds, follow with bullish positions and continue to target the $2,500 level; a volume breakout in the $2,450–2,460 range is also a short-term bullish signal Initial thoughts were price would take out the equal lows - which it has - but sweep and reclaim, before pushing higher.
Instead, we've taken out the equal lows, and are forming a tight consolidation just below the former range we broke down from. This isn't bad - just a different variation of the setup that I had in mind.
In the bullish case, this is manipulation before we reclaim the imbalance above (> 1.3717) and then expand higher from the overall consolidation structure. From the market perspective, $ETH is fluctuating around 2430 today, currently at the lower boundary of the 4-hour channel. Analysts are watching the upper boundary at 2570, with the midline at 2507 as the first rebound target; if it closes below 2410, the entire channel structure will be invalidated.
My short position has been lucky, opened at 2513.89 with 100x leverage, now marked at 2431.2, floating profit +328.93%, just slightly above the key support.
The position is very delicate—2410 is the lifeline; holding it means still oscillating within the channel, breaking it could lead to further downside. But with 100x leverage, the margin for error is minimal, so I tend to reduce if the rebound is blocked, not giving it a chance to reverse. $ZEC $SOL On the day I deposited, I thought I was here to invest, seriously watching the market and taking notes, excited to earn three hundred yuan and unable to sleep.
Later, things changed. I learned to hold positions, deleted stop-loss orders, and deceived myself with "it will come back"; when deeply trapped, unwilling to give up, I added positions to average down and fought against the market; after one wrong trade, I hurried to open the next, the more anxious, the more mistakes, the more mistakes, the more anxious.
I didn't cry at the moment of liquidation, but was rather calm. It turns out people are not killed by the market, but slowly dragged to death by "unwillingness."
If I could do it again, I would still enter the market, still hold positions, still believe I would be the exception.
Gamblers don't lack lessons, they lack acceptance. This is not a confession, but an epitaph. $ETH $ZEC $BTC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 FIL dropped from 1.04 to 0.75, barely recovered to 0.80, and the J value immediately surged to 77.9.
Don't just look at this rebound bullish candle; glance up at the 4-hour chart, where EMA21 and EMA55 are twisted into a steel cable around 0.83, tightly pressing down overhead. Above are all trapped positions from the drop below 1.0, just waiting for a rebound to break free. This oversold rebound lacks volume support and is solely propped up by indicators. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 $FLOCK This pullback had early signs. The perpetual contract just launched on September 12, and the narrative driven by AI+privacy training pushed it to 0.08675, a typical retreat after news-driven hype. Now it has dropped to around 0.066, down nearly 10% in 24 hours.
I took a short position accordingly, with 20x leverage, opening at 0.07968, mark price 0.06611, floating profit +340.61%, perfectly catching this downtrend.
But I have to remind myself: positive news realization is often the point of cashing out; the follow-up depends on the real progress of Chainlink cross-chain and UNDP cooperation. Plus, 54% of tokens are still not circulating, so selling pressure looms overhead. When short positions profit, you have to control your impulses. $SOL $ZEC Is the flow through the Strait of Hormuz reversing? After Iran's visit to China, Trump's talks with the six Gulf countries—could this be a turning point? The main factors affecting Brent today are twofold: one is the Strait's navigation data, and the other is the initial mediation dynamics between the US and Iran. #沙特管道修复预期压低油价 1. Reuters updated the latest navigation data for the Strait of Hormuz, showing that although three oil tankers passed through the strait on Wednesday, actually 12 passed on Tuesday. The upward revision of the single-day navigation data has eased the market's pessimistic expectations about the strait's transport capacity, causing crude prices to fall in the short term. However, this data discrepancy also raises an issue: as tensions in the Middle East rise, more ships are choosing to turn off AIS to pass through the strait, making data statistics increasingly unstable. This means the real navigation data for the Strait of Hormuz is higher than reported. 2. Trump held talks with the six Gulf countries, claiming that Iran has directly communicated with the US seeking an agreement. The key point of this news is not the signal of direct dialogue with Iran released by Trump—after all, Trump's credibility is well known—but that this happened after Iran's visit to China. On September 16, Iran's Foreign Minister visited China, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made mediation policy remarks. That evening, Trump announced a meeting with the six Gulf countries to discuss US-Iran war issues. With Iran's visit to China as the backdrop, the credibility of this event is greatly enhanced. Moreover, the news was released around 8 a.m. Beijing time, but so far, Iran has not explicitly denied the event, further increasing its credibility. Of course, I believe$FIL dropped from 1.04 to 0.75, barely recovered to 0.80, and the J value immediately surged to 77.9.
Don't just look at this rebound bullish candle; glance up at the 4-hour chart, where EMA21 and EMA55 are twisted into a steel cable around 0.83, tightly pressing down overhead. Above are all trapped positions from the drop below 1.0, just waiting for a rebound to break free. This oversold rebound lacks volume support and is solely propped up by indicators. Honestly, $ENA has been insanely strong these past two weeks, climbing from just over 0.08 in September all the way to 0.15, up more than 60% within the month. Today it even broke above 0.15 again, rising about 7% in 24 hours.
My long position is pretty comfortable; I entered at 0.14026 with 50x leverage, and now the mark price is 0.15028, showing an unrealized profit of +357.19%. Seeing those numbers really feels great.
On the news front, buyback and burn plus the easing of early selling pressure make the logic sound. But a reminder to myself: when it rises too fast, a pullback is likely, and with high leverage, a single spike can wipe out a lot.
Eat well and leave—securing profits is more practical than anything. $ZEC $SOL $AMD I've been watching this position for several days, purely based on the candlestick chart. Around 526.74, it repeatedly spikes down and then pulls back, volume is quietly building up, but there's no positive news on-chain at all. This kind of movement is either a manipulative pump to shake out weak hands or someone quietly accumulating. I tend to follow for a while, placing stop loss just below the previous low; if it breaks, I'll accept it. Markets without news support are easiest to be reversed and harvested, so don't get overconfident with your position size. What do you think—is this a shakeout or a sell-off? Share your key levels.
👇👇👇$XRP
XRP has been knocked down several times above 1.3, as soon as it goes up someone sells, and when it goes down someone buys. This spot is like a meat grinder set up by the dog whales 😏 Bulls hold more than 70%, all crowded on the ride waiting to be lifted, but volume is shrinking. Who will lift it? I caught a flying knife around here last week and still haven't broken even. I'm watching 1.3 closely at this spot; if it can't hold, I'll just keep watching the show and not chase.FET is agent/alliance beta. Partnerships move headlines; supply and attention move price.
$TAO is the high-beta AI benchmark. It trades like leveraged tech: violent risk on, unforgiving when liquidity leaves.
$RENDER is GPU/render beta with ETH correlation. Bid when AI infra demand is real; dead weight when both books are offered.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal $BTC + $ETH | MARKET SIGNAL
$BTC remains the market’s primary liquidity driver, but $ETH shows whether risk appetite is expanding.
The key is whether both assets are moving in agreement. When $BTC holds structure and $ETH strengthens, broader participation becomes more plausible. If $ETH continues to lag, liquidity may remain concentrated in Bitcoin.
$BTC leads + $ETH confirms → Broader participation
$BTC leads + $ETH weakens → Liquidity remains concentrated in Bitcoin Fed hikes 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% — first hike since 2023. Trump wants 1% or lower. That's a 275bps GAP. Who decides? FOMC, not White House. But when they clash publicly, rate expectations get messy. This is what matters for $BTC: Don't trade the talk, trade the actual path. Watch DXY + US10Y yield — that's the real signal. 2018-2019 was same story: President pushed for cuts, market chopped, but FOMC had final say. Noise fades, rates stay. Short term: Noise Long term: Expectation volatility $BTC neBook profits: one lying on the sofa, one rolling under the bed
$BTC moved from 77,191 on 9/11 to 76,372, down 1.06% over 7 days; $ETH moved from 2,515 to 2,433, down 3.27%. The first half of the script is exactly the same: both $BTC (79,859) and $ETH (2,666) peaked on 9/11, then both took a big bearish hit on 9/15. The difference is in the second half—$BTC has held above 76,000 without breaking down, while $ETH hasn't even reclaimed 2,450, relying entirely on talk for its rebound.
On the pullback side, $BTC's maximum drawdown was 3.3% (from 79,859 to 74,909), $ETH's was 5.1% (from 2,666 to 2,357). $ETH behaves like a rocket monkey, falling deep and rebounding fast, but this round its speed only shows in the drop.
Where smart money stands
Cumulative net flow on the holding side: $BTC +$42.1 million, $ETH -$62.5 million, directions completely opposite. Looking closely, $BTC's line isn't exactly pretty either—on 9/12 there was a single-day outflow of $198 million, only pulled back positive by three consecutive days of net inflows (9/17 single-day +$94.2 million), basically a capital support; $ETH is a real retreat, with $281 million running out in a single day on 9/16.
$BTC ETF didn't give any face either, with a single-day outflow of $450 million on 9/15.$LSK's trend this week is so magical, the market maker has been exposed by everyone, it's the MSR market😂
A public chain that's about to shut down, pulling 20x in the last 3 days before zeroing out, blowing up $40 million worth of short positions, clearly not giving retail investors any chance to survive.
And this market maker is quite skilled; to support the pump, they even released an ecological benefit cutting the max supply from 400 million to 300 million.
When retail investors believed the good news about the burn, on the very day the burn was implemented, the price actually dropped 40.5%, a textbook case of all the good news being priced in, then another round of retail investor slaughter.
And there are still two ticking bombs: the neighboring project has had a delisting risk label since July; on-chain, there's an address holding over 76% of the supply (most likely a bridge contract, but concentration is concentration).
This token is no longer an investment, it's a gamble. Either accept it as a short-term frenzy before the chain shuts down, or just watch the show.$ONE I have recently started revisiting ONE. Many people, when they see ONE's current price, their first reaction is: what's so good about this coin? But I actually think that what truly deserves attention is often these established public chains that the market has forgotten and are extremely undervalued. ONE's biggest advantage is not how popular it is now, but that it has experienced a complete bull and bear cycle before. This means that once it regains market attention, the speed at which funds speculate on it could far exceed those newly launched coins that have yet to gain market recognition. What does the market lack the most right now? Not stories. But undervaluation + high Beta + sufficient historical liquidity. ONE happens to meet several of these conditions. If BTC enters a strong cycle again and funds spread from BTC and ETH to high Beta altcoins, then an old token like ONE that has been dormant for a long time could very well experience a very fierce catch-up rally. I will not outright dismiss it just because it has been declining for a long time. On the contrary, I will focus on observing: whether the bottom shows sustained volume, whether whales are accumulating again, and whether the price can break through the long-term downtrend. Once these three signals appear simultaneously, market sentiment could change instantly. At that time, the discussion will no longer be: "Can ONE still survive?" but rather: "Will those trapped positions from back then come back?" So my current view is simple: ONE is not the asset with the highest certainty, but if the altcoin season really returns, this kind of old coin forgotten by the market$BTC rate hike lands but BTC surprisingly doesn't crash.
The Fed raised rates by 25% on September 16, BTC briefly dropped below $75,000 during the session, then recovered above $76,000, with only a slight 0.68% drop in 24h.
This week was a double blow. On 9/15, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate 50-49 (short of 60 votes), BTC was smashed below $75,000 that day, causing $771 million in liquidations across the market, with longs taking $568 million. On 9/15, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $450 million, with FBTC losing $215 million and IBIT $162 million, marking the largest single-day redemption since June.
But the 25bp rate hike was already priced in by CME (probability before the meeting rose from 56% to 86%), so the rate hike landing turned out to be a sell-the-news event. On 9/17 Asian morning session, crypto broadly rallied, and BTC returned to $76,000.
More than two-thirds of officials in the dot plot expect another rate hike this year to 4%-4.25%, 2-year US Treasury yields surged to 4.74%, 10-year broke 5%, and the dollar index stood at 100.31. The risk-free rate is at 5%, pulling valuation anchors away from altcoins and BTC. Oil prices remain above $100 (Brent closed at 105.83 on 9/16), energy inflation is the backbone of this rate hike cycle.
Next to watch is the BTC options expiry on 9/26 (a record 500,000 contracts, with the biggest pain point near $110,000) and subsequent ETF flows. $75,000 is the lifeline; if broken, look to $70,000; reclaiming $78,000 would signal relief.
The sell-off is exhausted and this is a rebound, not a reversal. Hold spot at this level and avoid leverage.BTC vs ETH Money-Making Ability Comparison. PK Day | Verdict $BTC
Let's put the verdict here first; if you disagree, keep it to yourself.
This round $BTC wins, not because it makes money, but because it loses less. 7-day returns: $BTC -1.06% vs $ETH -3.27%. Both are down, but $BTC is at least lying on the sofa, while $ETH is rolling under the bed. Sharpe ratio: $BTC -1.85 vs $ETH -4.32; after risk adjustment, both are equally miserable; smart money has voted too, with cumulative net inflow of $BTC holdings at +42.1 million, and $ETH holdings at a net outflow of 62.5 million. $ETH has fallen so hard in these seven days that it shows no mercy, smashing the bulls' wallets "to pieces" without even cleaning up.
Volatility and Sharpe, true colors revealed after risk
$BTC annualized volatility is 32.6%, $ETH 44.7%; $ETH is naturally more volatile. Sharpe ratios $BTC -1.85, $ETH -4.32, both negative—translated into plain language: holding either in these seven days results in losses, but holding $ETH loses more than twice as fast as $BTC. Average fees: $BTC 0.0059% vs $ETH 0.0017%; $BTC bulls are still willing to pay to hold on, while $ETH bulls can't even be bothered to pay the holding interest, which says a lot about the attitude.$XRP has the highest beta among all major coins, surging the most when it rises and falling the hardest when it drops—up 32% in 30 days and down 7% in a week.
The core reasons for this round of decline are twofold: CPI and PPI exceeding expectations, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes, combined with stalled regulatory bills. I shorted at 1.3607 following the trend; the current price is 1.2973.
Technically, it has already broken below the 200-day moving average (1.355) and the demand zone of 1.35-1.38, and selling pressure is not yet over.
Looking ahead, watch the 1.28 support level; only if it stabilizes can we talk about a rebound; if it breaks, don’t try to catch the fall. $ZEC $SOL Big Brother Maji: 12,000 ETH long position, 25x full margin leverage, what is he betting on?
The data is right in front of us:
Remaining position of 12,000 ETH long, position value $28.92 million, 25x full margin leverage
Opening average price 2445, liquidation price 2389, margin only 1.1568 million USDT.
24-hour floating loss of 55,000, funding fee alone consumes 763,300 USDT per day.
The total profit and loss curve is very striking: once had a floating profit of tens of millions, now the total loss has reached $35.78 million, after big gains it has been giving back all the way, the account curve has plunged from green directly into deep red.
Current situation analysis
1. Extremely aggressive leverage, very little room for error
With 25x full margin, if the price drops from 2445 to 2389, just a 56-point move, this $28.92 million position is wiped out.
ETH’s current volatility means any random spike can hit the liquidation line.
This is no ordinary swing trade, it’s a high-risk gamble.
2. Funding fees are a huge invisible shackle
Paying over 760,000 daily in funding fees.
Even if the market doesn’t fall, as long as it moves sideways, the account keeps bleeding every day.
Time favors the shorts; the longer the longs hold, the higher the cost.
3. Past performance: big profits made, but huge losses wiped out
The curve shows the account once surged to tens of millions in profit, indicating he caught big moves before.
But the futures market is like this: no matter how much you earn, one wrong heavy position can give most of the profits back to the market.The stock market is starting to look very different.
Today, OKX opens $xMETA/USDC spot trading — a tokenized version of a US stock, available on a crypto exchange.
No shareholder rights. No traditional market hours.
Just a 24/7 on-chain price.
If this scales, crypto isn’t only competing for capital anymore. It’s competing for the market itself.Bullish view: The rate hike has been fully priced in as bad news, BTC holds steady at 76000, bulls dominate, after breaking 77000, look towards 80000. Bearish view: The 77000 resistance has failed three times, the rally and pullback indicate heavy selling pressure above, breaking below 75000 targets 73000. My take? BTC is now at 76408, I stand in the middle—no guessing direction, just trading by range. Light long positions below 76000, stop loss at 75000, target 77000. Reduce positions if resistance is met near 77000. Small 5000U position, no bias to bulls or bears, just execute at the levels. Losing 200,000U taught me: taking sides is useless, execution is what matters. $BTC $BTC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC $ETH $SOL People call this drop significant or even brutal.
In fact, the market has never been as resilient as it is today, with hardly any downward movement.
- Interest rates are coming
- Clear legislation has not passed
- US-Iran conflict escalates further
- Oil prices surge sharply
And Bitcoin has just experienced a sharp price surge, a situation that usually leads to pullbacks/corrections.
However, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to perform well. Negative news no longer affects them.
Altcoins may still not be in a risk-favorable environment, but market leaders have barely reacted to any negative factors.
Remember these signs:
When positive news has no effect and bad news drags the market down, you are in a bear market.
When negative news has no effect and good news pushes the market up, you are in...?#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ $SUI At its current position, should you chase the rally or wait for a pullback?
My answer is: wait for the pullback, do not chase the highs. From a pure technical perspective, $SUI is currently priced at 0.7201. Although MA5 (0.72158) is still above MA20 (0.71244), maintaining a bullish moving average structure, the price has already fallen below MA5, indicating a short-term weakening of momentum. The MACD histogram remains positive at +0.0003431, sustaining a bullish stance, but the value is thin, suggesting diminishing upward strength; RSI at 60.5 is in a neutral-to-strong zone, not yet overbought, implying there is still room to rise but lacking strong breakout momentum. The Bollinger Bands [0.68917, 0.73571] show the price is near the upper part of the middle band, with the upper band at 0.7357 as the most immediate resistance. The funding rate is +0.0100%, positive, indicating slightly crowded bullish sentiment; the Fear and Greed Index at 50 is neutral, showing no extreme market emotions driving the move.
In summary, the overall direction remains bullish, but the timing is better suited to wait for a pullback to the confluence zone of the Bollinger middle band and MA20 before re-entering. $BTC broke through a key level on the evening of 9.17. Is there still room for this rebound tonight?
Brothers, BTC has finally broken upward out of the previous triangle and the 76246–75022 consolidation range. After the breakout, it didn’t surge immediately but repeatedly retested 76246 to confirm support, holding it several times.
More importantly, at the hourly level, a bottom piercing pattern appeared at this position. Breakout, retest, support confirmation — all signals are basically aligned, so it’s logical to take a rebound long position here.
But I won’t think too big with this trade; I’ll treat it as a rebound for now. As long as BTC doesn’t fall back below 76246, the hourly level still has room to continue upward repair. If it forms a rounded bottom, the 1:1 target could be around 77910.
Up above, first watch the 77000–77375 resistance zone. Only if it breaks out with volume will 77910 be more promising. The only thing making me a bit uneasy now is that although the price is rising, volume hasn’t clearly expanded. A rise on shrinking volume is like someone running without gasping for air — it looks strong but feels a bit hollow inside.
Luo Jie’s view is:
If BTC breaks 76749 with volume, consider following the long side on the right, targeting 77910.
If it breaks below 75901 with volume and the rebound can’t recover, then focus shifts to the bears.
If it falls below 76003, look down to 75036–74496.
In short: if 76246 holds, bulls still have a chance; if it falls back, the recent breakout must be questioned again. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 ALLO'S BOUNCE, MY DISCIPLINE TEST
I watched $ALLO fall to 0.19729, then reclaim 0.20371, up 0.89% despite a 47.98% 90-day drawdown. One green candle after a long red stretch isn't proof of a reversal, it's a patience test. Do you wait for confirmation, or trust the first bounce? Focused on $BTC, the trendline doesn't lie
$BTC has been pressed down from the high of 79,859 on 9/11, directly breaking through 76,000 on 9/15 to touch 74,909, then rebounding with low volume over the next two days back to 76,372. The current position is awkward: MA3 (76,049) supports from below, MA5 (76,621) presses from above, and one candlestick will decide which side to stand on.
The descending pressure line in the chart has been pressing down from 79,859 and is still far from the current price; the close-range battle is around the previous highs of 76,540-76,750. Above that is the indicated rebound target T1≈78,100 (midpoint between current price and swing resistance). My short order hangs between 77,000-77,400—just above MA5 and below T1—waiting to act when the price rebounds into the resistance zone, no chasing shorts or trying to catch the top. Stop loss at 78,350: once it surpasses T1 and the 9/14 close at 78,153, it indicates an upgraded rebound, so admit the mistake and exit without stubbornness. On the downside, first watch 75,500 (close to the 9/15 low), then 74,200. The reference support line in the chart is around 73,400, which is the optimistic bear's dream—don't take it as a given.Oil prices are cooling down, but Trump is once again urging the Fed to loosen up
As soon as the expectation of Saudi pipeline repairs came out, CL and BZ immediately pushed down first, and USO also reacted accordingly.
But this time, I think we shouldn't just focus on whether oil prices fell or not; the real shift should be in the inflation line.
Last night the Fed just raised rates, and today the young guy came out urging a rate cut, even calling for below 1%. Meanwhile, oil is cooling down again, somewhat contradicting the Fed.
If CL and BZ continue to push down near $100, inflation pressure will naturally ease a bit, and the probability and rationale for the Fed to continue raising rates will definitely diminish.
The scary part is if the Middle East situation fluctuates again, oil prices surge back up, and rate cut expectations have to be withdrawn.
So this contradiction is quite harsh and difficult to reconcile.
Therefore, I will continue to watch USO, CL, and BZ. This round of oil may not just be an energy market trend; it is directly tied to the Fed's next move.
$CL $BZ $USO #沙特管道修复预期压低油价 Funding situation is more straightforward: $BTC funding rate over 7 days climbed from 0.0042% to 0.0094%, longs are getting more and more eager to pay; net inflows on the position side have continued for nearly three days (single day +$94.2 million on 9/17), these leveraged positions chasing the pullback look like reinforcements, but if they crash down, it's all kindling. $BTC ETF is acting as a spoiler, with a single-day net outflow of $450 million on 9/15, institutions are retreating first as a sign of respect—leveraged buying frenzy plus institutional withdrawal, you tell me if that’s scary or not.
A quick word on $ETH
$ETH current price $2,433, +1.30% in 24 hours, bouncing even more enthusiastically than $BTC, but with weaker confidence: single-day net outflow of $281 million on 9/16 on the position side, funding rate just climbed back from negative to positive, 7-day return -3.27%, bottom among the two brothers. My inclination in one sentence: don’t chase the highs, wait for a pullback to the $2,380-$2,400 support zone before considering light short-term longs, stop loss below $2,350; reaching out now, it won’t negotiate with anyone’s hand being cut off.Interest rate hike implemented, the market rises instead of falling
Looking back at historical U.S. rate hike cycles, how has BTC actually performed?
This is even more valuable as a reference
First cycle:
2015–2018: At the end of 2015, when the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate hike in a decade, BTC barely reacted. Then during 2016–17, as rate hikes continued, BTC rose from around 200+ to nearly 20,000
The most intense bull market in history occurred during a rate hike cycle
In 2018, the Fed continued to raise rates, and BTC dropped about 70%
The main drivers of that bull market were narrative, ICO speculation, and the still extremely low absolute interest rates at the time
Not very meaningful as a reference
Second cycle:
2022–2023: This is the cycle closest to a "mature market + rapid rate hikes"
Also the most valuable for reference
BTC peaked at 69,000 in November 2021
By the first rate hike in March 2022, it had already retraced 40% to around 40,000.
On the day of the first rate hike, BTC was even somewhat strong, followed by a roughly 18% rebound about 12 days later
Then it entered a deeper downtrend, falling 63%, with a low of about 15,500 in November 2022
The low appeared while rate hikes were still ongoing; after continuing hikes in 2023, BTC actually recovered from the bottom
If multiple rounds of rate hikes are confirmed later, history is not favorable for BTC
So it is still necessary to observe the performance of key supports
$BTC support: 75,000, 74,000
$ETH needs to break 2,500 to strengthen
Supports: 2,370, 2,280–2,300
Resistance: 2,480–2,500, 2,610
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 38 to 5, crypto taxes are about to be regulated
The House Ways and Means Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Bill 38 to 5.
On-chain fees under $10 will no longer need to be reported for tax purposes.
The data looks like this:
The Financial Services Committee passed the Reserve Bill 28 to 21.
Seized $BTC must be locked in the Treasury's vault.
What is he betting on:
The probability of the Reserve Bill passing is only about 6%.
Congress members go on break on September 17, not enough time.
I reviewed it, and putting these two numbers together is the key.
Taxes are being sorted out, reserves are being legislated, one leg is solid, the other is weak.
This 6% figure is more honest than any trading call.
Do you think this 6% can still rise before the members go on break?
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ $BTC PONS: Based on the current ecosystem and revenue calculations, is it seriously undervalued?
For people in the crypto circle, it’s a blessing to encounter a truly rare and valuable coin!
✅ Bullish perspectives: Reasons why it appears significantly undervalued
1. Solid revenue + buyback and burn mechanism
PONS is the leading token launch platform on Robinhood Chain, accounting for over 70% of token issuance and most of the trading volume on-chain.
Transaction fees are 1%, with 70% distributed to token creators and 30% retained by the protocol; of the protocol’s retained revenue, 80% is directly used to buy back PONS on the secondary market at TWAP for permanent burn.
As of early September, nearly 29% of the total supply (about 290 million tokens) has been burned, with the total supply of 1 billion continuously shrinking, creating a positive flywheel of "token issuance heat → transaction fees → buyback and burn."
Under short-term peak metrics, the annualized protocol revenue is very high. Compared to similar projects like PUMP, PONS’s revenue multiple is clearly lower, and from a static PE perspective, the static valuation is relatively low.
2. Scarce strategic position in the ecosystem
The entire Robinhood Chain’s early activity and trading volume are basically supported by PONS; after the V2 version token issuance completes, liquidity is automatically locked into Uniswap V4, preventing project teams from running away with funds, encouraging creators to continue joining.
It’s not just an ordinary launchpad; it is the traffic gateway for the entire chain, while also linking with the UNI V4 ecosystem. In the future, it can support tokenized assets and is not limited to Meme coins.
3. Token positioning upgrade
It is not a traditional governance token but a protocol revenue certificate, where business cash flow directly converts into token buy pressure and burn. This is similar to UNI’s fee switch logic and is a very attractive token economy in the launchpad sector.
⚠️ Key point: The market’s low valuation is not a mistake but a pricing of huge risk (core)
It’s not that the market doesn’t see the high revenue, but that the market believes the current high revenue is unsustainable.
1. Revenue source highly dependent on Meme speculative hype, with a very short cycle
The current huge fees mostly come from MEME token issuance and short-term speculation, which is a phase-specific hype.
Robinhood Chain initially had wallet Gas subsidies; after subsidies expire, a large amount of low-cost high-frequency trading is likely to shrink; once the Meme market cools down, token issuance and trading volume will sharply decline, and protocol revenue and buyback burn intensity will simultaneously weaken significantly.
Recent high revenue is short-term pulse data, not stable normalized income across bull and bear markets.
2. Competitive threats in the sector
Similar launchpads can replicate this fee buyback and burn model; other L2s and public chains will also launch token launch platforms to compete for creators and traffic. PONS’s advantage is first-mover hype, not a permanent moat.
3. Business reality: RWA narrative is slow to materialize
Robinhood Chain’s original vision was tokenized stocks and other RWA assets, but currently, the vast majority of PONS’s business is still MEME coins, with a very low RWA proportion. The grand narrative is insufficiently realized in the short term.
4. Short time since launch, no bear market test
The project has been live for just over two months, with data only from bull/hype cycles and no test from major market downturns. The market is unwilling to give valuations as high as mature DeFi protocols, which is a risk discount.
📌 Summary conclusion
- If assuming the current high transaction fees can be maintained stably long-term: PONS is indeed seriously undervalued, with continuous buyback and burn plus leading ecosystem, valuation has great room for correction.
- If returning to objective reality, revenue is a short-term pulse market: it’s not seriously undervalued; the current price already prices in the current hype dividend. The market’s low valuation essentially discounts the "revenue sustainability" risk heavily.
In one sentence: static data looks undervalued; dynamically considering cycle risk, valuation has huge uncertainty. Whether value can be realized depends mainly on whether Meme hype can continue and whether on-chain trading volume will sharply decline after Gas subsidies expire.📊 $BTC holding steady keeps the market’s risk base intact. $ETH gaining against BTC would show liquidity is expanding into large-cap alts, while $SOL outperforming ETH would indicate a second wave of higher-beta demand. 🧠 The flow to track is BTC → ETH → SOL, but the proof comes from the ratios: ETH/BTC higher, then SOL/ETH higher. That sequence shows the move is spreading rather than simply following BTC. ⚠️ If BTC remains the only consistent outperformer, broader alt participation has not beNEAR current price is 2.829, with no clear direction in the order book funds, and the news is all noise. On the daily chart, volume is shrinking and it’s moving sideways above 2.80. There is support in the 2.78 to 2.80 range, but heavy resistance between 2.88 and 2.90. The 4-hour MACD is flat, volume is shrinking—a typical pre-breakout night. Contract open interest hasn’t decreased; both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal.
I just put my thermos on the windowsill, and the delivery truck downstairs is blocking the door again, so I went out to direct traffic for a bit.
The logic is straightforward: 2.829 is a middle ground—chasing longs here risks getting trapped. Either wait for a pullback to 2.78–2.80 to buy with a stop at 2.74, targeting 2.88 first, then 2.95 if it breaks through. Or wait for a volume surge and a stable close above 2.88 before chasing, with a stop at 2.83. Given the current volume, I lean toward the first option; buying dips is more comfortable than chasing highs.
I’m avoiding shorts for now; the daily structure isn’t broken, and aggressive shorts risk being squeezed. If the 4-hour candle closes below 2.74, then consider reversing positions with a target of 2.65.
Manage your position size well; don’t bet heavily on direction. This market is grinding—just wait for it to choose its path.
$NEAR
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？
@OKX星球 The readings on the thermal imager are approaching the flashover critical point, with thick smoke pressing down to thirty centimeters above the ground. This is not a bullish breakout at all, but a typical precursor to indoor flashover.🧑🚒
Reviewing the two consecutive liquidations on $AAVE over the past half month, each one was a bloody violation accident.
The first one blindly forced entry without laying out a water supply mainline or observing the wind direction, with a position overloaded by three times. The fire instantly backfired, the stop-loss valve was greedily welded shut, and it was forced to hold on until the empty air tank triggered a forced liquidation.
The second one, after the helmet melted, completely lost composure, not only failing to retreat to a safe assembly area but instead stubbornly resisting against the trend on a bare hillside with no cover, attempting retaliatory firefighting, turning two months of profits into ashes within three days.
Now the price has climbed to 122.9, and the load-bearing component at the upper Bollinger Band of 125.80 has already undergone severe thermal deformation. The 1-hour RSI has burned up to 60.0, and the high-temperature combustible gases accumulated in the enclosed space could trigger a secondary backdraft at any time.
Without properly planning firebreaks and emergency escape routes, rushing in is just feeding fuel to the fire. The middle Bollinger Band at 120.00 is the first smoke exhaust buffer zone, and the lower band at 114.20 is the bottom structural support.
- Asset: $AAVE 🔴
- Entry: 122.5 - 124.0
- TP1: 120.0
- TP2: 115.5
- SL: 126.2
The safety rope limit is only up to 126.2. Once the flame pierces the fire resistance limit, immediately cut off the gas valve and evacuate unconditionally; never take another deadly breath of toxic smoke in the fire zone.🧯
#StrategyPlaybookI have a viewpoint that the next time $BTC breaks through 80,000, the narrative around Bitcoin may revolve around its role as an alternative currency.
Given the increase in U.S. Treasury debt leading to a synchronized depreciation of the dollar and deepening distrust in the dollar system, coupled with the BRICS countries proposing to bypass the dollar-dominated SWIFT payment system, as well as the real test of the dollar payment system during the U.S.Watching ZEC rally again, I know many people are laughing at me for shorting against the trend. But trading is never about following the crowd; it’s about sticking to logic.
This ZEC surge is essentially an emotional recovery and short covering, not a fundamental reversal. On-chain data shows that whale addresses are still continuously withdrawing, and exchange reserves have not significantly decreased, indicating that selling pressure is only temporarily masked. Technically, the current price has reached a strong weekly resistance zone, RSI divergence signals are clear, and volume cannot support a sustained breakout.
I insist on shorting ZEC with a target price of ¥1222. This level is the confluence of a previous dense trading zone and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, also the bulls’ last psychological defense line. Once broken, it will trigger a large number of stop-loss orders and accelerate the decline.
I know this path is lonely, but a true trader must stay clear-headed when others are celebrating wildly. The ZEC bubble will eventually burst, and I will wait for that moment.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH Many people focus only on price fluctuations but overlook the most critical signal: trading volume. $BTC $ETH $ZEC When market trading volume drops significantly, liquidity thins out simultaneously. What does this mean? Prices that originally required large capital to move can now be easily pushed up by just a few big orders. It looks like a breakout, but in reality, it's just a short-term fake move caused by insufficient liquidity. Especially for those trading contracts, you need to be extra cautious in such market conditions. When volume is low, prices swing back and forth, and a single ordinary candlestick can trigger a bunch of stop-losses and liquidations. Many people get the direction right but are shaken out midway, and this is the root cause. I have a habit: when I encounter a market with continuously shrinking volume, I proactively reduce my position or even go completely flat to observe. Because at such times, risk far outweighs opportunity. When the market is active, it's a test of analytical skills; when the market is quiet, it's a test of risk awareness. A truly mature trader doesn't participate in every move but knows when to act and when to wait. Remember this: without volume support, markets that rise fast will fall even faster. Learning to respect liquidity is far more important than blindly guessing price moves. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ 📊 $BTC holding the base keeps the market’s risk appetite intact. $ETH outperforming BTC would be the first rung, while $SOL outperforming ETH would show that traders are moving deeper into higher-beta exposure. 🧠 The ladder is simple: BTC stability → ETH/BTC expansion → SOL/ETH expansion. If each stage holds, the move is broadening instead of remaining concentrated in Bitcoin. ⚠️ If ETH/BTC cannot strengthen, the ladder stops before SOL and the wider rotation remains unconfirmed. 🔥 One market$BCH just found a Wall Street catalyst in a filing.
Grayscale's amendment proposal suggests converting its Bitcoin Cash Trust into the Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust ETF, planned to be listed on the NYSE Arca, pending approval. $BCH then surged intraday to $222.60 on September 17.
Sometimes the catalyst isn't headline news, but an SEC form. The French highest administrative court's move has directly stripped away the "privacy underwear" of the European crypto community
$BTC
Just saw the news, the court rejected the urgent applications from Bull Bitcoin and Paymium, refusing to suspend the enforcement of the EU DAC8 crypto data rules. The official reason: the applicants "failed to prove the existence of urgent circumstances sufficient to support an emergency suspension"
In plain language: You say centralized data collection could lead to leaks, extortion, or even personal safety risks? Sorry, in the face of cross-border tax compliance, these concerns are not urgent enough
Honestly, this result is not surprising at all. DAC8 has been effective in the EU since January 1, 2026. The heavy hand has already been swung; how could it be withdrawn just because you shout danger? Now registered service providers must complete their first 2026 annual report by September 30, 2027. The lawsuit for full repeal is still under review, but distant water won't quench immediate thirst
What's the most ironic? The market barely reacted, BTC remained steady with a slight 0.24% increase. Everyone is still focused on K-line charts and betting on interest rate cuts, but few notice that Europe's tax data net has already closed. Trading on European exchanges in the future means your personal and financial data is basically exposed; the decentralized anonymous narrative is being stripped away bit by bit
A reminder to the brothers: Don't just stare at the K-line, quickly adjust your expectations for "absolute privacy" and start your tax planning early. The real iron fist of compliance never cares about market faces
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Peeling away three layers of surface soil and ash, what lies beneath is not some emerging narrative, but a repeatedly carbonized speculative ruin dating back to before the Common Era 🏛️.
The bronze temple Nvidia forged on Nasdaq is draining the nutrients from the traditional continent, and the shrinking consumption data confirms the exhaustion of purchasing power at the empire's edges. Macro funds are trampling wildly in an overcrowded race, and the script of history was already written in the late Roman period's debasement of gold coins and the tulip mania swamp—where the crowd roars, it is inevitably the eve of Pompeii's destruction.
Using a probe to deeply analyze the current stratigraphic profile of $SUI, a clear panic erosion layer is precipitated at the current price of 0.7199. The one-hour level oversold sediment has already reached dense hard bedrock, and the lower Bollinger band area accumulates a large amount of blood-stained chip skeletons; the blind retail cleanup is nearing the end of the geological dating 📜.
There is nothing new under the sun; the crash is just another crystallization replay of human greed in stratigraphy. When the noise fades and the tide washes out the rammed earth base, this ruin welcomes a ruthless opportunity for reconstruction.
- Target: $SUI 🟢
- Entry: 0.7120 - 0.7250
- TP1: 0.7740
- TP2: 0.7830
- SL: 0.6720
The unearthed clay tablets never lie; the rusted traces of turnover have been sealed in the rock layers. If the bedrock breaks, abandon the probe and seal the pit; there is no need to linger over any weathered rubble.
#StrategyPlaybookThe more aggressively $ZEC rises now, the more hesitant I am to chase it. Everyone should still remember the issuance loophole incident back in June.
For the privacy track, technical issues can still be fixed, but once trust is broken, it's not so easy to restore.