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#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
$BTC
The bill itself: no "buy orders," only "lock-up"
The market initially hoped the government would actively increase Bitcoin holdings (such as the early proposal to buy 1 million coins over 5 years). But the currently advancing "American Reserve Modernization Act" (ARMA) has made significant compromises:
· Only consolidates existing holdings: it only manages Bitcoins already confiscated by the government, without mandating new purchases.
· The core is a ban on selling: these Bitcoins are locked up for 20 years, eliminating potential selling pressure but not creating new demand.
· Low probability: forecasts show only a 6% chance of it becoming law before 2027, down from a previous 60%.
Current market: greater macro pressure
Bitcoin is currently priced around $76,000, down about 34% from a year ago, showing price weakness. The market is currently dominated by Federal Reserve rate hikes (which increase funding costs) and net outflows from spot ETFs; these macro factors are far more impactful than the symbolic significance of the reserve bill.
The bill's progress is positive for long-term institutional development but lacks substantial buy orders to drive a short-term surge. A true "big rally" may require subsequent bills including mandatory purchase clauses or a shift toward looser macro liquidity.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #OKX百万规划师 SPCX surged yesterday with a spike to 153, and no one dared to follow the wave at 155.
The day before yesterday, the low was 142.9, the high reached 148.5, and it closed at 143.5. Yesterday it opened around 144.9, peaked at 153.0, dipped to 144.4, and closed at 150.9. Volume increased, indicating some follow-through upward. Pre-market touched around 154 again.
There is still resistance between 153 and 155; above that is the high point at 225.6. If it breaks below 144.4, it’s likely to test 142.9 first; if that level doesn’t hold, the short term may look for lower space.
In the short term, watch if the 150.9 close from yesterday can hold. If it doesn’t, consider it as still digesting the drop from 225.6 and avoid chasing at the current price. For those already holding, watch if the 144.4 low from yesterday can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and see if it can break through 153 before considering entry; don’t catch a falling knife mid-air. $SPCX #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Two parallel tracks are advancing in the U.S. Congress, shifting crypto regulation from "temporary guidelines" to "formal rules." The House Financial Services Committee passed ARMA: seized BTC will be included in the Treasury's strategic reserve, locked for at least 20 years, and cannot be arbitrarily auctioned, exchanged, or pledged; other seized tokens will be placed in a separate digital asset inventory. This does not mean the government is entering the market to buy, but rather managing the existing seized assets and regularly publishing the ledger. The market loses a potential source of selling pressure, but short-term pullbacks after the positive news are normal.
The Ways and Means Committee advanced new tax reporting rules by 38 to 5: the old practice of immediately repurchasing after a loss to offset taxes is blocked; on-chain fees under $10 generally will no longer be taxed separately; large holders with over 5,000 transfers per year lose exemptions. Both bills are still at the committee stage, far from full House, Senate, and presidential approval. If passed, U.S. crypto holding, taxation, and entry/exit will be codified.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ The thermal imaging readings on the ceiling have already surged past the critical point, and thick smoke is violently swirling in the narrow corridor. This is not a healthy breakthrough upwards, but the most dangerous high-temperature accumulation before a flash fire.
While Wall Street capital is still frantically adding fuel to the fire of Nvidia and on-chain AI narratives, the fire resistance limits of old public blockchains are being tested. The signs of funds overflowing from hot sectors to marginal assets seem lively, but is this a real liquidity-driven recovery or just a spread of unsupported speculative heat? Old buildings without sustained structural cash flow as firebreaks will only suffer internal pressure imbalance from consuming oxygen too quickly.
Data shows that $ADA's current price is capped at 0.2019, directly piercing the upper band of the one-hour Bollinger Bands at 0.2012, with the one-hour RSI reaching an overheated zone of 66.3. The air respirator's remaining capacity alarm has started to scream, and the smoke layer is rapidly descending. Blindly charging with a water hose into the deepest part of the fire scene will only end with the safety exit being instantly sealed off, cutting off the escape route.
Before the building structure completely destabilizes, defensive firefighters will only block the smoke vents and fire doors, waiting quietly for the heat wave to fall back to the middle band area to cool down.
- Target: $ADA 🔴
- Entry: 0.2010 - 0.2025
- TP1: 0.1965
- TP2: 0.1920
- SL: 0.2055
The demolition water hose is already positioned outside the fireproof rolling shutter door, the hose fully pressurized, just waiting for the last bit of oxygen inside the fire scene to be exhausted.🧑🚒
#StrategyPlaybookBitMine (BMNR) Latest Weekly Report: As of 9/13 Eastern Time, holdings are approximately 5,956,378 ETH. The company values them at about $2,513 per ETH, accounting for roughly 4.9% of the total ETH supply of approximately 122 million. They claim to be about 98% toward their "Alchemy of 5%" goal. In the past week, they added about 27,180 ETH, having bought every week since the strategy started on June 30, 2025. Approximately 5,067,309 ETH are staked (about 85%), with the company estimating annualized staking revenue at about $334 million (7-day annualized yield about 2.62%); total staked amount is about 392 million ETH—fluctuating with price and yield. Combined crypto + cash + securities + strategic investments total about $15.8 billion.
In contrast: The Strategy did not increase BTC holdings for the second consecutive week, instead repurchasing about $139.3 million in STRC preferred shares; as of 9/13, holdings are about 845,050 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,400. Two paths diverge—one focusing on BTC treasury + capital structure management, the other on ETH accumulation + staking cash flow. When evaluating the treasury, don’t just count coins; financing costs, staking yields, and dilution risks also factor into valuation #BTC财库优先股融资升温 $ETH $BTC now.Interesting, one for acquisition and one for storage.
Two major bills advancing simultaneously—Is the U.S. establishing a national-level status for Bitcoin?
The recently failed CLARITY Act's momentum hasn't faded, yet two crypto-related bills are pushing forward in the U.S., sending completely different signals.
On taxation, the "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act" passed the fundraising committee with a strong 38:5 vote, setting a $10 small transaction fee exemption threshold, clarifying mining and staking tax rules, and projecting approximately $500 million in additional tax revenue from 2027 to 2036, reducing the tax burden for ordinary users.
On the other hand, the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act" passed 28:21. The U.S. Treasury currently holds about 324,000 seized BTC; the bill requires unified custody, enforces a 20-year lock-up period prohibiting sales, and mandates quarterly reserve audit reports, effectively locking this portion of circulating supply.
One side improves tax compliance, the other incorporates seized Bitcoin into the national strategic reserve. However, both bills still require full votes in both the House and Senate, so uncertainty remains high.
Many say this is a milestone in Bitcoin institutionalization, while others see it as just short-term sentiment-driven. What do you think? If these bills ultimately pass, will it trigger a major rally for BTC? Feel free to discuss. $BTC The layer of ashes is already three feet thick; this is not a revival of civilization at all, but a classic Pompeii-style collapse!
During the day, I spent the whole time in the excavation site cleaning the strata with a brush and hand shovel 🏛️, tormented to the point of frustration by this indecisive, choppy market. Under the sun, there is ultimately nothing new; the human greed and collapse recorded on Babylonian clay tablets 📜 two thousand years ago are being reenacted down to the last detail in front of this ancient weathered wall at 226.4.
The upper Bollinger Band is firmly pressed against the weathered rock layer at 226.41, RSI is approaching an overheated 70, a vivid celebration like the last flare before the fall of the Roman Empire. This is not a solid foundation being compacted, but the ignorant hastily building an altar on a quicksand fault line, beneath which lie the dry bones of successive bull and bear cycles.
I was so frustrated by the repeatedly pulled-apart fragmented pottery market during the day that I spat blood; I absolutely won’t tolerate it anymore, so I turned around and aggressively shorted it with a shovel! Stop loss and take profit are all welded onto the bronze vessel; shutting down and going to sleep!
- Target: $BCH 🔴
- Entry: 225.0 - 227.5
- TP1: 218.0
- TP2: 210.0
- SL: 232.0
Tonight, if the market makers have guts, they’ll tear down my era-defining defense line. The storm tonight better come fiercer, smash through the core of the earth hard!
#StrategyPlaybookCleanSpark Plans to Issue $2.227 Billion 2031 Notes: Sandersville Project, Retail Investors Can't Buy
CleanSpark released an 8-K today: its wholly-owned indirect subsidiary CSDC Finance I intends to privately place approximately $2.227 billion principal amount of senior secured notes due 2031.
The funds will mainly be used for three purposes: settling the remaining construction accounts of the Sandersville data center in Georgia, replenishing the equity investment previously made by the company, and retaining a reserve for debt repayment. The guarantor is CSRE Properties Sandersville, with nearly all assets pledged as first-priority security; the parent company also provides a completion guarantee—if the note proceeds are insufficient to complete construction, CleanSpark must cover the shortfall.
Access is restricted: only available to Rule 144A qualified institutional buyers and offshore Reg S non-U.S. persons. Planned issuance does not mean pricing and closing are finalized; the announcement itself states that if market conditions are unfavorable, the deal may be canceled. The completion guarantee ensures the building is finished, not that the notes will definitely be sold.AVA current price is 0.3137, with the order book shrinking and hovering above 0.31. The news is all noise; focus directly on the structure. The 4-hour level box between 0.30 and 0.32 has been consolidating for three days, with no obvious capital outflow, but the resistance at 0.325 is very strong. Volume continues to shrink, which is a sign of an impending breakout; do not speculate before the direction is confirmed.
Just opened the guard post window for some fresh air, and someone downstairs is honking to urge opening the door. The market is the same—no need to rush.
Logical deduction: 0.30 is the short-term bullish defense line; if it breaks, look toward 0.285. Only a volume-supported close above 0.325 will open bullish space. Currently, the range is oscillating; chasing orders is just giving away profits.
In terms of operation, lightly buy between 0.308 and 0.312, with a stop loss at 0.298, first take-profit target at 0.325, second target at 0.338. If the 4-hour close falls below 0.298, reverse to short with a target of 0.285 and stop loss at 0.308. Keep position size within 20%, avoid heavy positions. This market tests patience; those who rush lose.
$AVAX
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？
@OKX星球 ZEC hits a historic high of about $1369
Up about 23% in one day Paradigm co-founder just disclosed holdings
I saw the CoinDesk report, Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang said on X that the company holds ZEC, calling it a private supplement to Bitcoin, and also said they will continue to fund developers. On the same day, a governance vote reduced block time from about 75 seconds to about 25 seconds, while the halving schedule remains the same as Bitcoin's. Open interest in contracts rose about 38% in one day to about $2.2 billion, funding rates are still negative, with shorts paying longs
A reminder, market cap is about $23.2 billion, roughly twice that of Monero, which barely moved that day. Everyone is now definitely more concerned whether this round is driven by institutional narratives or if short leverage was squeezed first.After the Fed raised rates, the long-term U.S. Treasury bonds didn't give any respect.
The 10-year yield first dropped to 4.95%, then quickly bounced back near 5%. The 30-year yield was even more stubborn, staying above 5% the whole time. The 2-year yield also rose to 4.73%. The market is telling you one thing: this rate hike might not be the end.
Warschauer came out to explain that the high long-term rates are due to a strong economy, AI grabbing money, and geopolitical issues. It sounds reasonable, but he missed the most critical part: the fiscal deficit and debt sustainability. The U.S. government owes $40 trillion, and the interest keeps compounding, which is the root cause of why long-term rates can't come down. He doesn't mention it, but the market certainly isn't pretending not to see it.
Next, watch a key signal. If the 2-year yield peaks and starts to fall with rate hike expectations, but the 10-year and 30-year yields remain stubbornly above 5%, it means long-term pricing is no longer just about rate expectations but a combination of term premium, inflation risk, and capital demand. In such times, the valuation threshold for high-beta assets will be passively raised.
For BTC, the short-term situation is actually quite conflicted. After the rate hike landed, it didn't fall; instead, it rose 1.53%, looking quite strong. But as long as long-term U.S. Treasuries hold above 5%, the valuation ceiling for risk assets is suppressed, limiting rebound potential. Short-term depends on sentiment, mid-term on liquidity. Until the interest rate tension eases, don't expect too much from a one-sided market. What do you think, will a 5% yield on U.S. Treasuries become the new normal? #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC What we really need to watch in this ZEC cycle is not the candlestick chart, but ZCSH
Since ZCSH was listed on August 25, it has accumulated a net inflow of over $70 million, holding more than 550,000 ZEC, about 3% of the circulating supply
On September 16, ZEC surged above $1300 again
What does this indicate?
ETF continues to accumulate → market circulating supply decreases → price rises → shorts are forced to cover → price is pushed higher again
So right now, what I care about more is not "how much ZEC has risen," but:
Is the ETF still continuously buying?
As long as funds keep flowing in, the short squeeze still has fuel
But once the ETF has consecutive net outflows + price weakens simultaneously, this logic needs to be reassessed
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速
#高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $ARB is up again today
ARB is currently priced at $0.141. Since September, it bounced from a dead bottom of 0.08 to above 0.20 before pulling back, rising 120% for the whole month, and it's still in the green today. Who cared about this worthless coin two months ago?
Robinhood Chain launched its mainnet on 7/1, built with Arbitrum Orbit. According to the protocol, 10% of net revenue is reinvested into the Arbitrum ecosystem (8% goes to the DAO treasury, 2% for ecosystem development). On 9/1, daily fees surged to $3.75 million (usually only one to two million), cumulatively distributing about $39 million to the ecosystem. The chain's TVL is about $1.5 billion, DEX cumulative volume exceeds $50 billion, and recently daily fees once surpassed Solana and BNB, becoming a money-printing narrative. The DAO's revenue in the first half of the year was $6.19 million with a 97% gross margin, supported by RWA (Robinhood stock tokens).
However, RSI is already overbought, and the volume on Robinhood Chain is suspicious, with 95.8% marked as wash trading; more importantly, the coin only has governance rights, Robinhood Chain uses ETH for gas fees instead of ARB, so even if the chain profits, it doesn't directly translate into ARB buying pressure. MC/FDV is only 66.8%, meaning over 300 million tokens are still locked and waiting to be unlocked, which at the current price means over $40 million selling pressure is on the way.
On 9/23, 123.5 million to 139 million tokens will be unlocked (about 1.4% to 1.85% of circulation), and on 9/29, Robinhood gas subsidies expire. Two risks in a row, so don't hold faith for the short term Interest rate hike implemented, which of the four small DeFi tokens are quietly recovering?
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
The midday interest rate hike has been fully priced in as bad news, so let's talk one by one about which of the four small DeFi tokens are quietly recovering.
$HYPE 79.66, previously a star for debt repayment, dropped from 89.65, with 97% of revenue used for buybacks but revenue has declined for four consecutive quarters. 77.5 is the critical point. Despite the interest rate hike, it did not fall further, supported by real revenue, making its recovery the most solid.
$RE 0.45, a small DeFi insurance RWA, with a market cap of 71 million and 5 million in volume, has the most solid logic but the thinnest market. It is strong because it falls only when it should.
$ENA 0.14, Ethena dropped 20% in a week to 0.14, with 0.13 as support. On the night of the interest rate hike, some fled into stablecoin yield tokens. With the bad news fully priced in, there is room for recovery.
$UNI 6.05, the DeFi leader with a market cap of 3.7 billion, has been consolidating this round. Its new narrative shifted to L2 and meme tokens. It behaves like a large-cap blue chip, lying in wait for favorable winds.
$HYPE has a bottom, RE resists the fall, ENA is recovering, UNI is waiting for the wind. With the interest rate hike implemented, DeFi is recovering; small positions are worth watching. $TRUMP death cross, 80% held by Trump: Whether this coin rises depends entirely on the White House's mood
This $TRUMP coin has recently become a "White House sentiment indicator." Currently priced around $1.88, down 4% in 24 hours, with a technical death cross and strong bearish signals, it has dropped 97% from its historical high. The most surreal data: about 80% of the circulating supply is held by entities related to Trump—in other words, the fate of this coin depends half on Trump's tweets and half on when his family decides to sell.
This crash hit it especially hard because the direct trigger for the failure of the "Clear Act" was the "ethical conflict of interest involving the Trump family's crypto holdings." With the bill dead and regulatory expectations gone, $TRUMP takes the hardest hit. The more Trump tries to build a crypto persona, the more the Democrats attack his family's $1.4 billion earnings, leaving this coin caught in the crossfire.
Buying $TRUMP is essentially betting on Trump's political fortune, not on blockchain technology. Whether it rises depends on the November midterm elections and the White House's stance. Retail investors should treat it like buying a lottery ticket if they want to take a chance; as an asset allocation, it's a gamble with fate. $BTC dominance rising is not “alts are dead forever.”
It is a statement that leverage is being pulled. $ETH can still build a base. $DOGE and $ZEC usually cannot until dominance stops making higher highs. Respect the regime.🔥 If BTC sells another round next, I'm actually prepared to keep buying.
My approach is simple:
In September, October, and November, I will gradually position in spot positions on pullbacks. During this period, I will try to avoid short selling and high leverage; the core is one word: take.
I focus on a few areas 👇
1️⃣ 68K–72K
If the main force continues to sweep liquidity downward, start adding in batches here.
2️⃣ 60K–65K
If I really get here, I'll definitely increase my position.
3️⃣ If it falls below 60K
Then enter the extreme market zone. For me, this level is more worthwhile to study long-term allocation rather than panic selling.
Several other variables should not be ignored:
🇯🇵 Yen risk
💧 Q4 liquidity shock
🛢️ Oil price risk
⚠️ Black swan events
📉 Interest rate expectations change
These news reports could cause sell-offs in the short term, but if fundamentals do not permanently deteriorate, I tend to view extreme pullbacks as opportunities to reassess positions.
For options trading, I personally consider allocating part of the long-term LEAPS Call.
If implied volatility is relatively low, the risk-reward structure of long-term options is worth paying attention to, but positions must be controlled.
As for short-term trading:
If BTC surges from around 76K to 85K, I will consider reducing some of it;
If it continues to surge to around 90K, it will further reduce the position and wait for pullbacks before buying more. Brothers, +235.33%!
Looks exaggerated, right? In traditional markets, it's absurd, but in small-cap trends, it's basic math. $USELESS rose from 0.21017 to 0.25963, continuously strengthening with a sufficient increase. Entering at 10x leverage just reasonably amplifies and realizes the upward trend.
Now at 0.25963, anyone who understands trading knows the sentiment is a bit inflated here. Going higher, the marginal space is limited, not worth heavy betting. I only keep a very small base position lightly to catch the tail.
Stop loss is set around 0.23. It's not random, it's to lock in variables. Trading in the end is not about feeling but relies on probability and discipline. Others follow red and green blindly, but experienced players calculate the trend and win rate in advance.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Later, I'll slowly explain the logic of this profit wave and position risk control separately. $BTC $ETH The CLARITY Act cloture vote failed 49-50 in the Senate on September 15, a real setback for crypto regulation.
Yet $BTC held firm, absorbing the political blow without a major selloff. That resilience says something: $BTC 's price is no longer hostage to Washington's calendar.
Institutional demand and its fixed supply keep providing a floor, even when legislation stalls. Markets are pricing in delay, not derailing the thesis.Sisters, I feel like it's reaching the top.
ZEC has been consolidating sideways all day. Since the interest rate hike policy came out last night until now, more than ten hours have passed.
I feel this wave of sentiment has reached its peak.
Although $ZEC is still at a high level, holding at 1370, if you look closely, it can't break through.
Last night it surged to 1399, and today it touched 1399 again, but both times it failed to hold and was pushed back immediately.
This kind of high-level sideways movement is not a buildup; it looks more like the buying pressure is running out.
SAR is at 1343; although the price hasn't fallen below it yet, the MACD above the zero line has started to shrink in volume, with the red bars getting shorter, clearly showing the upward momentum is weakening.
The interest rate hike was initially seen as good news, and sentiment was released intensively for more than ten hours; those who wanted to push it up did, and those who wanted to chase did.
If no new incremental funds enter next, this kind of high-level consolidation can easily become a prelude to a trend reversal.
At this point, I think it's already possible to try shorting and testing it.
After all, it's moving sideways, and sideways consolidation can actually be a good signal.
As long as it doesn't rise, even if it moves sideways, it might be consolidating at the top.
Although it’s not falling now, that doesn’t mean it won’t fall tomorrow or tonight.
Although my short position is still at a floating loss, and many people advise me to exit, and I have wavered myself.
But I feel I can't exit now because it has come to this point.
$BTC
$ETH
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC ① Wait for a false breakout (preferred, best risk-reward ratio)
Range: 77,000–77,300 (above the 24h high + daily EMA10 77,131 + 1h Bollinger upper band 77,120 area).
Confirmation: On 15-min or 1h chart, a long upper shadow + high volume bearish candle appears, or after a spike, a quick drop back below 76,800.
Stop loss: 77,450 (if price closes above, consider it a true breakout, take the loss).
Targets: 76,400 → 76,100 → 75,700.
② Wait for a breakdown and pullback (more stable but may miss the move)
First break below 76,400 (around 15-min EMA20 + Bollinger middle band), then pull back to 76,500–76,700 and short again if it fails to break above.
Stop loss: 76,950. Targets same as above.
Two important reminders:
Position size: If you insist on trading on the left side at this level, keep your position under 1/3 of your usual size, and always set a stop loss order (don’t rely on a "mental stop loss"), because the 4h J value of 108 means a short-term surge of 300–500 points is not surprising.
Funding rate is positive (about 0.007%–0.009%): holding short positions requires paying long fees, so sideways consolidation causes slow bleeding; therefore, shorts shouldn’t be held too long. Reduce or exit positions at the first target.
When to completely abandon shorting: 1h candle closes firmly above 77,200 + open interest expands simultaneously (indicating new longs entering rather than covering).The most common mistake retail investors make when chasing rallies and selling in panic is mistaking "price increase" as a reason for "further rise," without first considering whether they can withstand a pullback. $PUMP Current price 0.00396, up nearly 10% in 24h, RSI 73.8 entering overbought territory, Bollinger upper band at 0.00400792 just overhead, 30 K-line amplitude 13%, meaning intraday 3%–5% spikes are normal. Funding rate +0.0050% indicates longs are paying to hold positions, sentiment is hot but the fear and greed index is only 50, such heat in a neutral market is not sustainable.
Technically, MA5 > MA20, MACD histogram still positive, trend intact, so I lean towards buying on dips rather than chasing highs. Entry reference 0.00382–0.00387, near MA5, also the first support zone of this rally; take profit 1 at 0.00400 (Bollinger upper band, likely resistance on first touch), take profit 2 at 0.00415 (measured extension after breaking upper band). Stop loss below 0.00376, i.e., below MA20; breaking this means the bullish moving average structure is broken.
Worst-case scenario: if volume breaks below 0.00376 and MACD histogram turns negative, while funding rate remains high, it indicates overcrowded longs turning against the market, requiring unconditional exit—no averaging down, no adding positions.🚨 CLARITY is stuck, but the U.S. suddenly accelerates from another direction?
The recent U.S. crypto regulation has been somewhat interesting:
On one side, the CLARITY Market Structure Act is facing obstacles in the Senate; on the other, the House is pushing two more noteworthy bills in succession.
One of them is the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Bill, which was passed by the Funds Committee with 38 votes in favor and 5 against, focusing on tax issues such as crypto income, asset transfers, mining, staking, and broker filing.
Another one deserves even more attention.
The Financial Services Commission advanced the U.S. Reserve Modernization Act by a vote of 28 in favor and 21 against, which involves establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves and proposing that government-held BTC be retained for at least 20 years, while exploring budget-neutral ways to increase holdings.
If legislation is indeed passed and eventually implemented, the significance will be more than just "another piece of good news in the crypto world."
One is to address how crypto assets should be taxed, and the other is to discuss whether BTC can be included in the national reserve system.
But here, you need to stay 👇 calm too
The bill is advancing ≠ finally passing, which does not mean BTC will rise immediately.
Regulation is a slow variable; what truly affects short-term market trends are interest rates, liquidity, and market sentiment.
So now, what I'm more concerned about is not "how positive the news is," but whether BTC can truly hold at key support levels.
#DailyOrbit Today I spent a long time looking at ETH and SOL and realized one interesting thing: both have setups, but with completely different logic. So instead of choosing one, I did something simpler — I placed limit orders on both. Now the market itself will show which scenario was stronger. 🟣 ETH — a bet on buyer strength ETH is currently around $2,446. What I like here: whales 2.1:1 Top Traders 1.94 funding 0.0047% Meanwhile, OI after yesterday's drop decreased: 825K → 791K So some positions have already closed, and the long positioning forToday's trading plan:
Last night, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, but $BTC did not fall; instead, it rose. The market has already formed a relatively clear bottom structure. From the CVD perspective, spot buying is also quite active. After the data release yesterday, I saw no immediate distribution downward, so I opened a BTC perpetual futures long position on OKX, currently in floating profit.
There are more data releases today. If the price retraces to the small-scale FVG shown in the chart and shows support, I will consider continuing to go long; if there is no retracement, the price may expand directly upward. There is a dense liquidity liquidation zone above, and there is still room to continue hunting liquidity upward later.UNI this wave really has something going on 🔥
At the beginning of the year it was still stuck at $2.36, now it’s directly surged to $6.3, more than doubled 📈. What’s driving it? Robinhood Chain! Uniswap holds 76% market share, daily RWA trading volume broke 130 million, protocol monthly trading volume exceeds 70 billion, stronger than the next three combined.
Even more impressive is the fee mechanism implementation—transaction fees are used to buy back and burn UNI. On September 4th, over $1 million was burned in a single day, 80% coming from Robinhood Chain. Standard Chartered says annualized burn is 4%, $100 by 2030 might even be conservative 🤯
Technicals: Above the 100-week EMA, last time this pattern rose 236%, mid-term target is 11.5. But there’s 376 million liquidity blocking between 7.36-7.5, support is at 5.8.
$ETH $ZEC $UNI
Risks must be mentioned too: long positions at 60%, open interest at 500 million, RSI over 80, macro shocks could trigger cascading liquidations. Mid-term structure turning bullish, but don’t get greedy chasing highs, a pullback near 5.8 is more attractive 😉
In short: fundamentals are strong, technicals just broke out, but don’t be a bag holder in the short term. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 The market does not cover up emotions
As the early morning vote concluded, prices reacted first.
What lost was not the number of votes, but the expectations that had been built up and shattered over the past two weeks. The ethical clauses kept shrinking until almost only the framework remained, yet it still didn’t lead to approval. Funds don’t listen to procedural stories; they withdrew first: BTC slid from 79569 to 74896, ETH dipped to 2356, and altcoins were swept out first.
Someone predicted this episode in advance. Jiang Zhuoer judged three days ago that the bill’s passage was hopeless; if it failed, it might become the starting point of this round of pullback. Tonight both predictions came true. It’s not mysticism, but expectations piled to the top, and the day of realization naturally becomes the day of settlement.
But procedural voting failure does not mean the bill is dead. It can still be amended and voted on again; Washington’s game rarely decides win or lose in one hand. Another colder line: while the vote was frustrated, senior military officials from the US, Israel, and Arab countries met in Germany, focusing on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Regulatory cracks are narrowing, geopolitical sparks remain, and neither side is giving concessions.
There are details in the market. After 74896 was hit, the price returned to around 75800, indicating that amid panic, some hands reached out to catch it. Is the bad news fully priced in or only halfway down? Now no one dares to sign off.
If you stayed up until dawn waiting for the result, leave a mark in the comments.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Negative news keeps coming one after another, yet BTC surprisingly doesn't fall!
The clear bill didn't pass, no drop.
The interest rate hike decision was implemented, still no drop, instead a slight rise!
Is this market starting to defy logic?
What we should really be wary of is not the negative news itself, but that negative news hits and the market still catches it. If negative news continues to appear without causing a drop, and positive news leads to rises, it indicates that selling pressure might be getting absorbed by the market.
Next, don't rush to guess the ups and downs; first, keep an eye on BTC's key support and trading volume.
$BTC $ETH #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ The US spot Bitcoin ETF has been bleeding money these past two days. Public reports show about $450 million outflow on the 15th, nearly $300 million on the 16th, and since the 8th, it has exceeded $1 billion. The coin price has bounced back to around 76,000, looking quite resilient.
Don't rush to interpret "holding up" as a capital inflow. Money is still flowing out, and the price holding up is mostly due to thin market depth or short covering, not a reason for you to leverage up chasing the rally. First, see if the outflow stops, then talk about opening a $BTC position.Just finished washing dishes and drying my hands, glanced at $CRV, short at 0.3374, now 0.3167, +306.75%. Brothers, this move should be enough to relieve some stress, right?
A few days ago it surged without volume, the main force was trapping people, pressing hard around 0.337. I told everyone not to buy too much then, wait for it to show weakness. Honestly, this level was a fake move, those who followed are comfortable now.
If you have a position, take half profit first, move the stop loss to cost for the rest, let the profit run. Don’t hold it all, the rebound is the most annoying.
If you didn’t follow, don’t beat yourself up, wait to see if the rebound around 0.325 is weak or not, then decide. Is it necessary to chase shorts now? No, right.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Next, watch if 0.31 holds, if broken look at 0.30; if it stands back above 0.337, don’t stubbornly short. The market is not lacking, wait for signals. $ZEC $ETH BlackRock depositing coins to an exchange platform does not mean they are selling
BlackRock just transferred two batches of coins to a certain exchange platform.
54,000 $ETH, 2,015 $BTC.
What does this number mean:
According to the valuation in the post, the two batches together amount to about 285 million USD.
The transfer address is Coinbase Prime, an institutional custody channel.
Common misunderstanding:
Depositing to an exchange platform just means moving coins to a place where orders can be placed.
Custody and selling are two different things, with a step in between.
If they really want to sell, they have to place orders on the order book and complete trades first.
Before that step happens, on-chain you can only see the coins changed addresses.
If the next batch of transfers is still at this scale, it indicates they are rebalancing, not liquidating.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $ETH $BTC # US Crypto Tax and BTC Reserve Bills Advance
The crypto space has been interesting these past couple of days: one path is blocked, but two others have opened up.
Just a few days after the CLARITY Market Structure Act was stalled in the Senate vote, the House suddenly accelerated. The Fundraising Committee passed the "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act" with 38 votes in favor and 5 against, establishing tax rules specifically for crypto income, asset transfers, mining staking, and broker reporting. On the same day, the Financial Services Committee advanced the "US Reserve Modernization Act" with 28 votes in favor and 21 against, planning to enshrine strategic Bitcoin reserves into federal law, requiring the government to hold BTC for at least 20 years and to explore budget-neutral ways to increase holdings.
These two bills are more substantive than CLARITY. Once tax rules are implemented, the long-standing ambiguity troubling US holders regarding reporting will have a clear standard. The strategic reserve bill is even more impactful; if passed, it would officially incorporate Bitcoin into the national reserve asset framework, placing it on the same institutional level as gold. This is not just rhetoric, but a confirmation at the institutional level. Market Indicator 2026.09.17
BTC is oscillating around 75,000, ETH has fallen below 2,400, and SOL is at 96. The market is still digesting last week's ETF negative news.
On-chain data and coin prices are diverging: BTC and ETH prices have dropped, but blockchain REV rose 13% over the past week, reaching $230 million daily. DEX volumes on Base and Arbitrum remain high, and the tokenized stock sector in the SOL ecosystem is also expanding. This indicates institutions haven't fully withdrawn, just shifting from speculation to application.
ETFs saw a net outflow of 340 million last week, and the total stablecoin supply of 307 billion remains basically flat. Large holders haven't significantly increased positions nor panicked to exit; the market is waiting for a catalyst.
Tokenized stocks on Solana deserve attention. DEX volumes for Backpack and xStocks have surpassed many established L1s, and PropAMM execution prices are tighter. If tokenized US stocks succeed on SOL, the ecosystem premium will be re-evaluated.
The lending market is stable with no obvious liquidation risks. The RWA lending ratio is slowly rising, and BlackRock's BUIDL scale continues to grow, showing a trend that is not rapid but highly certain.
My judgment: In the short term, 75,000 is a key support for BTC; breaking below that points to 68,000. If it holds, on-chain revenue growth will gradually reflect in the price. No rush to bottom-fish; wait for clear signals. The Fed's latest dot plot completely shatters all market rate cut fantasies!
Compared to the June dot plot, the entire interest rate forecast has been revised upward; this is the real macro trump card.
Among the 18 members, 12 believe there will be one more rate hike this year, 4 think there will be two more hikes, and no one supports a rate cut.
The central rate forecast for the end of 2026 has been raised to 4.1%, and it remains pinned at a high 4.1% in 2027, locking in high rates for a full two years, with the rate cut window pushed back to 2028.
Even more aggressively, 8 members lean toward continuing rate hikes in 2027, with hawkish forces far exceeding market expectations.
Core trading logic:
The high interest rate maintenance cycle is extended, supporting US Treasury yields and the US dollar.
Interest-free assets like BTC and gold will continue to face valuation pressure.
The previously bullish market script of "easing by year-end and rate cuts next year" is now invalid.
Key point: The dot plot is not just verbal signaling; it reflects the real voting expectations of Fed officials. As long as inflation rebounds, further rate hikes can be implemented at any time.
Short-term market rebounds are all bear corrections; do not treat them as trend reversals to chase longs. In this game, position sizing must be strictly controlled, and stop losses are a must.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Will $SKHY Hynix follow the mainstream?
Hynix is not ignoring the mainstream; rather, it is being fiercely pulled by two mainstream forces. In the long term, it is tightly bound to the AI computing power mega cycle. As the leader in HBM, as long as AI infrastructure continues to burn money, its core logic remains rock solid.
But in the short term, it is constrained by the mainstream of macro interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve's rate hikes have led foreign capital to withdraw from growth stocks, with the South Korean semiconductor sector being the first to be sold off.
This creates a divergence where the fundamentals are very strong, but the capital flow is very weak. Long-term funds are locked in, while short-term foreign capital is dumping shares, causing the stock price to fluctuate and struggle to rise.
For us traders, it is important to recognize this kind of split mentality: don't be fooled by the long-term logic into chasing highs, nor be scared out by short-term emotions. Wait until the macro negative factors are fully digested; that will be the true starting point of the main upward wave.📂 20U Real Account Record 077
💰 Principal: 20U
📈 Profit on this trade: Floating profit
✅ Total earnings: +40U
📌 Current position: $SOL Long
Still holding the 97.1 long position, no market talk today, let's look at a newly released on-chain data.
Wintermute transferred 2,550 bitcoins to Binance, worth about $193 million.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, on the morning of September 17, market maker Wintermute transferred 2,550 BTC to Binance's deposit address.
Why is this worth mentioning separately?
Wintermute is not an ordinary whale; it is one of the largest market makers in the crypto market. When a market maker transfers assets to an exchange, it usually means one of two things: either preparing to provide liquidity and make markets, or preparing to sell off or hedge. The scale of $193 million will impact the short-term market regardless of the purpose.
Looking at other data from the same day
A newly created address withdrew 2,695 ETH from Gemini and staked them all, while another wallet dormant for 9 months withdrew 2,500 ETH from Binance. Someone transferred $BTC to the exchange.
Additionally, there is a real-time message from Solana.
The SIMD-0525 upgrade is confirmed to activate at 05:01 UTC (13:01 Beijing time) on September 18, shortening the mainnet block slot from 300 milliseconds to 250 millisecondsThe US dollar is strengthening, and US Treasury yields are surging, but HYPE remains strong at high levels, OKB hasn't truly broken down, while BICO continues to grind at low levels. The most interesting aspect of the market now is that despite the tightening macro environment, some small-cap coins are still unwilling to crash.
#US Dollar Index Strengthens
#Small Cap Liquidity Shrinks
$OKB is currently around 110, with 108–109 still the first support; holding this level, we look to 112 first. Only a true rebound above 114–115 will be considered a recovery of the previous strong structure; if 108 is broken with volume, beware of another round of capital contraction.
$HYPE is currently around 78–79, with 76.5–77 continuing to be the defense zone. Watch if it can stabilize above 80.5 first; only after breaking through 82–83 will trend-following capital likely continue to enter. The biggest fear for high-level coins is not a pullback, but failing to hold the price after a volume-driven surge.
$BICO is currently around 0.0185, with support near 0.0182. Only a rebound above 0.0193 indicates buying interest returning, and a structure above 0.020 will show clear improvement.
This lineup: OKB waiting for 115, HYPE waiting for 82, BICO waiting for 0.020. In a weak market, don't focus on who falls the least, but on who still has capital willing to defend key levels. $LSK topped at 0.4978 and it's already down 36%. The unwind started early.
Here's what I'm seeing. The rally from 0.242 was pure deadline hype, and now price is under both EMAs with every bounce getting sold. Textbook round trip.
But the chart isn't the point here. October 21 is the migration deadline. Miss it and your tokens are stranded when the chain shuts down on the 31st.
Price recovers. Stranded tokens don't.
If you hold LSK, have you migrated yet? On September 16, 2026, the House Financial Services Committee advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act (H.R. 8957) to the next stage with a vote of 28 to 21. All votes in favor came from Republicans, and all votes against came from Democrats.
The core content of the bill aligns with reports:
• The Treasury Department must establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve within 180 days, along with a separate Digital Asset Stockpile.
• Federal agencies must report their digital asset holdings within 60 days.
• Bitcoin included in the strategic reserve cannot be sold, exchanged, auctioned, or pledged for 20 years.
The revised text is more restrained than the original version:
• It does not authorize the government to purchase Bitcoin, only requiring the Treasury and Commerce Departments to study acquisition plans that "do not increase taxpayer burden."
• It removes provisions for purchasing more Bitcoin using Federal Reserve funds, gold certificates revaluation, or tariff revenues.
• Reserve certification reports have been changed from quarterly to annual.
Currently, this is only a committee "reported favorably" status; it still needs to pass the full House, the Senate, and be signed by the President before becoming law.CoinGecko is about $0.2715, and BingX's USELESSUSDT perpetual contract is about $0.2731, so if you are trading on a specific exchange, the price levels below should be based on that exchange's candlestick chart.
The currently public short-term technical data previously indicated support around $0.2373 / $0.2352 and resistance around $0.2440 / $0.2483 / $0.2542; however, the price has since clearly moved higher, so these levels are better used as historical structure references rather than direct current entry points.
15 minutes: Focus on short-term entries and exits
Using the current approximate $0.27 as a baseline, I will focus on:
Support: $0.265–0.268
Strong support: $0.255–0.260
Resistance: $0.280–0.285
Previous high resistance: around $0.29
Long entry trigger
A more conservative condition is not "buying just because it fell," but:
Price stops falling near $0.265 → 15m chart shows higher lows → volume increases and price retakes $0.275
In this case, you can consider:
Entry reference: $0.274–0.278
First target: $0.285
Second target: around $0.295
Stop loss: below $0.263
as a technical trading framework.
Short entry trigger
If:
$0.280–0.285 fails to break higher → 15m chart shows consecutive lower lows → breaks below $0.265
then the short-term bearish structure will clearly strengthen.
You can watch for:
Trigger: effective break below $0.265
First target: $0.258
Second target: around $0.250
Stop loss: price recovers back above $0.276–0.280
Do not chase shorts directly when price is consolidating near $0.265.
1 hour: Currently the most important timeframe
The 1H chart will determine whether this rally is a normal pullback or the start of a larger top formation.
I divide the zones as:
Zone significance $0.285–0.295 strong resistance / previous high zone $0.275–0.285 battle zone between bulls and bears $0.260–0.270 first support $0.245–0.255 important pullback zone around $0.235 deeper support
1H bullish structure
If 1H can:
Retest $0.26–0.27 → hold → close above $0.28 again
then the structure remains relatively strong.
Especially after breaking $0.285, if volume significantly increases, watch for a challenge to $0.29–0.30.
1H weakening
If:
Multiple failures near $0.28 + 1H breaks below $0.26
then I consider the market entering a deeper correction phase, with the next observation zone at $0.245–0.255.
If this zone also fails, the historical short-term structure around $0.235 will become important again. Previous public technical analysis also listed $0.2352–$0.2373 as support.
4 hours: Don't overlook this level
The most important thing on 4H is not the exact price to the cent, but whether this big rally has broken the trend.
USELESS is still in a very high volatility state. CoinGecko currently shows about $0.2715, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $59.5M, indicating good liquidity and active trading.
I focus on:
$0.25–0.26
This is the key 4H bull-bear dividing zone in my view.
If:
4H retests $0.25–0.26
↓
Long lower shadows / volume support
↓
Price recovers above $0.27+
then it looks more like a normal consolidation within an uptrend.
Conversely, if:
4H closes below $0.25
↓
Failed rebound at $0.25–0.26
↓
New lows
then be cautious of further support search toward $0.235 → $0.22.
My top three price levels of concern now
If you trade contracts, I suggest not watching a dozen price levels simultaneously; first remember:
① $0.285: Breakout level
Break and hold → watch previous highs/new highs structure.
② $0.265: Short-term lifeline
Hold → bulls still have room to counterattack.
Break → short-term weakness.
③ $0.25: Key 4H level
Hold → still can be seen as a pullback within the larger trend.
Break → correction level significantly expands.
If I were to make a "plan" now, I would do:
Bullish plan:
Stabilize at $0.265–0.270
→ Confirm reversal on 15m
→ Enter above $0.275
→ Target $0.285 → $0.295
→ Stop loss below structural low.
Breakout plan:
Break $0.285 + volume increase + 15m/1H close stable
→ Wait for pullback confirmation
→ Then consider following
→ Do not chase the first big green candle directly.
Bearish plan:
Fail to break higher near $0.285
→ Break below $0.265
→ Failed rebound
→ Then consider short
→ Targets $0.255 → $0.245.
Least recommended scenario:
Chasing longs or shorts around $0.27 in a sideways position. This area usually has a poor risk-reward ratio; waiting for key level confirmation makes risk control easier.
The above is a trading framework based on public market data and technical levels, not a certainty prediction. USELESS is a highly volatile crypto asset, and contracts especially are prone to rapid spikes and liquidations.
$USELESS Technical structure: After a V-shaped rebound, it enters a pullback digestion phase, with the key focus on the gain or loss of 76,465
Daily level — MACD histogram bottoms are declining, but the 12-hour has reclaimed above the EMA
The daily MACD histogram is still declining at the bottom, but the 12-hour level has reclaimed above the EMA line, the 8-hour level shows a subtle strengthening signal of "green over red," and the 30-minute level crosses above the zero axis. Multiple timeframes show a divergence pattern of "large scale weakness, small scale recovery," overall representing a technical rebound repair after overselling rather than a trend reversal. The weekly MACD remains bearish, and the 50-week moving average (around 79,000-80,000 USD) resistance is still effective.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #OKX百万规划师 Many people equate "falling a lot" directly with "a good bottom buy," which is the most common misunderstanding in using moving averages: price deviating from the moving average does not mean the trend has ended, it only indicates emotional release. To judge whether a trend is healthy, the core is to see if the moving average alignment and momentum are synchronously recovering.
Taking $SOLV as an example, the current price is 0.00436, MA5=0.004424 is still below MA20=0.0047355, the moving averages show a bearish alignment, indicating the medium-term trend has not yet turned strong; RSI=36.3 is close to oversold but not divergent, MACD histogram=-5.62e-05 is still negative, momentum has not confirmed a reversal. The lower Bollinger Band at 0.00426 is the nearest structural support currently, the price is running close to the lower band, the amplitude of the last 30 candlesticks is about 33.94%, indicating high volatility. The funding rate +0.0050% shows bulls are still paying, sentiment does not show panic liquidation, the fear and greed index at 50 is neutral, lacking extreme reversal signals.
Therefore, my view is short-term bullish rebound but no chasing the highs: entry reference at 0.00426–0.00432 (near the lower Bollinger Band, RSI oversold zone stabilizing), take profit 1 at 0.00460 (first resistance near MA5), take profit 2 at 0.00474 (MA20 resistance), stop loss set at 0.00415 (if breaking below the lower band, bearish alignment continues, view invalid).🥇 #OutcomesOnOrbit GOLD, BONDS, AND BITCOIN ARE SENDING THREE DIFFERENT SIGNALS — WHO IS RIGHT? There are market phases that are very easy to read. Stocks rise. Bond yields fall. Dollar weakens. Bitcoin rises. Everything tells the same story: RISK-ON. But there are also times... when the three most important markets tell three completely different stories. GOLD STRONG. TREASURY YIELD HIGH. $BTC ALSO STRONG. Sounds contradictory. But it is precisely this contradiction that I find noteworthy. Because maybe the market is no longer trading a cIt turns out that in the US-Iran war trades, the biggest gainer was neither crude oil nor gold, but oil transport ships.
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, $BWET, was $13.58 last year and is $786 today, an increase of nearly 60 times.
However, the funding rate seems quite high, about 3.5%.
Looking at its local index, it might be better to use it as an index rather than a position?
But has anyone traded it on an exchange? I now feel incredibly confident! 🥹The US CLARITY Act carves out the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction over crypto, and those who have been shouting for two years that "this will kill the industry" are now being proven wrong step by step by the process.
What the market fears most is never bad news, but ambiguous rules—once certainty is established, institutions will have a compliant entry point.
Don't go against regulation 🙏Rate Hike Night V-Reversal: BTC as Ballast, Which Is Stronger, ETH or SOL?
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
$BTC at 76600, initially dropped to 74910 after the rate hike, then quickly recovered and firmly held 76000 again. After a double kill of bulls and bears, it remains the anchor among the three major cryptos. The reserve bill brings long-term buying, but no short-term acceleration signal yet, so watch and wait.
$ETH at 2450, its rebound pace is slower than BTC, failing to break 2550–2600. It looks more like a catch-up player: if BTC surges to 78000, ETH’s elasticity might be unleashed; otherwise, it will continue to follow.
$SOL around 100, despite some pullback, it is the strongest among the three majors, with active support and continuous inflows into spot ETFs. It responded fastest in the V-reversal, with 105–108 as resistance zone.
$OKB at 111.88, safe-haven funds are flowing back into platform tokens. The narrative of 21 million locked tokens pegged to Bitcoin remains, about 20% below the previous high of 142, showing steady movement.
$RE at 0.44, a small-cap RWA + DeFi insurance token, with a market cap of 71 million and 5 million volume, thin order book, quick V-reversal but also high liquidity risk.
In short: SOL leads, ETH lags, BTC is ballast, OKB resists decline, RE is nimble but fragile. Watch if BTC can break through 78000. $BTC swept the 75.5K low after the Clear Act failed.
The Clear Act did not pass, as shared yesterday, and we expected a bearish reaction triggered below 75.5K.
Today is FOMC day, so I don't expect much action before then.
My best case for Bitcoin is that we consolidate before the FOMC, and the announcement triggers another sweep.
If the FOMC triggers that sweep, I would consider going long on a potential upward corrective wave.
The key is to wait for price and spread normalization after the announcement, then look for your entry opportunity.
Locally, only scalp trades might be feasible, but I’m not very fond of that.
If you have positions or are trading before the FOMC, make sure to cover your risk well before the announcement. $SNDK How to view tonight? It has been oscillating within a range these past few days!
My judgment on tonight's SNDK trend is that a short-term stop in the decline and rebound signal has appeared, but it cannot yet be defined as a reversal. 1540–1545 is the most critical bull-bear dividing line tonight, and 1560–1580 is the first real resistance.
Additionally, there is an important background tonight: the Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, and the dot plot shows that 16 of the 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, so the interest rate environment still suppresses high-valuation tech stocks. On the other hand, the semiconductor sector in the US pre-market warmed up overall today, and SNDK also rose once in pre-market.
The first support is at 1540–1545, the second support: 1525–1530. If the US stock market opens with a rise followed by a fall, I will not panic immediately. 1525–1530 is an important consolidation area in this sideways movement. As long as there is no volume break below here, it can still be understood as a secondary pullback before the rise.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #IOST and STRK Launch on XPerp
IOST and STRK have gained a new trading tool today, but "being tradable" does not mean "easier to make money."
According to OKX's announcement, IOSTUSD and STRKUSD X-Perp will open at 16:00 and 16:15 Beijing time, respectively. When a new product launches, the first thing I look at is not the direction but the order book: whether the depth is sufficient, the spread wide enough, and the mark price stable.
When the order book is thin, the actual loss from the same stop loss order can be much greater than planned.
I do not directly interpret the launch of derivatives as a spot market positive. It simply provides both longs and shorts with another tool and can more easily amplify short-term divergences and leveraged liquidations.
If you want to participate, let the data run first, then decide your position size based on the order book quality. Missing the first wave is not a loss. $IOST $STRK $BTC If the trillion-dollar Bitcoin crashes, the real victim is never the crypto circle itself.
I've always believed that Bitcoin is just a niche virtual asset. Even if it crashes violently and evaporates trillions in market value instantly, it only affects the crypto community and has nothing to do with traditional stable assets like stocks, bonds, and gold.
Why? Because it feels too far away from us.
But the truth might be overturned: if Bitcoin crashes rapidly, the first to collapse and be hit hard won't be the crypto circle, but the traditional financial assets that ordinary people see as the safest and most stable.
The reality is that institutional investments are all leveraged and collateralized to increase positions. This plants huge hidden risks—financial landmines.
If the decline is slow and gradual, shrinking by a trillion, that's just internal digestion and adjustment within the crypto circle. Institutions have ample time to deleverage, reduce positions, and control risks. The risk will be locked inside the crypto circle and won't spill over.
This is the most painful truth: under leverage, a decline never means selling only Bitcoin, but liquidating all quality assets held, including stocks, bonds, gold, etc.
This completely shatters the common perception: blue-chip US stocks, government bonds, and quality bonds that seem rock-solid are never absolutely safe.
The stability of many assets is just an illusion when liquidity is sufficient. It's not that the asset fundamentals are problematic, but the market collectively lacks cash and frantically scrambles for liquidity. Even the best assets can't withstand systemic stampedes.
A slow decline is market digestion; respect leverage and understand cycle risks.
This article is a financial analysis and does not constitute any investment advice!