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Is shorting at 2700 just foolish? Then is chasing longs necessarily smart?
$ETH long-short sentiment is clearly biased towards longs, with a high proportion of long positions and funding rates squeezed tight. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $534 million, mostly longs.
I opened a short at 2715.02, currently marked at 2713.87. The upper resistance at 2750 has been tested repeatedly without breaking through; in the short term, I’m more focused on the pullback opportunity after the long crowding.
This is just short-term speculation, take a quick profit and exit, no need to argue about right or wrong.
$BTC $ZEC #ThisWeekBringsNonFarmAndPCEKeyData#US-Iran negotiations continue, nuclear issues and sanctions become new focus
Oil prices just surged up, then were pushed back down by negotiation news.
A new round of indirect US-Iran contacts is progressing, with Qatar still mediating. The Strait of Hormuz navigation remains one of the topics. But the focus has shifted to the nuclear program and sanctions arrangements. Some US officials said Trump is willing to ease some sanctions if there is progress on Iran's nuclear program, but Trump later denied this. Iran is also reported to possibly adjust on uranium enrichment issues, but Iranian officials denied this as well. Currently, both sides have not reached agreement on specific conditions. After the news broke, international oil prices, which had risen over 4%, quickly retreated; WTI fell 1.99%, Brent fell 1.27%.
For BTC, this is positive in the short term. Oil price retreat eases inflation expectations, reducing the urgency for Fed rate hikes. BTC has been pressured by macro factors recently, with oil prices and US Treasury yields as two big obstacles; now one shows signs of easing, allowing sentiment to breathe.
But don’t rush to chase. Negotiations have not landed, core conditions are not agreed, and both Trump and Iran deny concessions, so reversals can happen anytime. BTC is now fluctuating around 83,500, with 85,000 as short-term resistance and 82,000 as support. If negotiations make substantial progress and oil prices continue to fall, BTC may test the upper resistance. If talks collapse, oil prices rebound, rate hike expectations heat up again, BTC will face pressure.
In terms of trading, don’t bet on negotiation outcomes. Wait for conditions to be finalized or for oil prices to form a trend before considering entry. $BZ $CL On September 29, Valour, a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies, officially launched a Zcash (ZEC) ETP denominated in Swedish Krona (ISIN: CH1108681763) on Sweden's Spotlight Stock Market, with a management fee of 1.9%. Traditional investors can gain direct exposure to ZEC prices through regular brokerage accounts without having to buy coins or manage wallets themselves. 【Source: Official press release from DeFi Technologies and reports from CoinCu, BlockBeats, etc.】 👉🏻Short-term impact This is an "incremental channel" news. Europe already has 21Shares' ZEC ETP (fee 2.5%), and the US has Grayscale-related products. Valour's fee is lower this time and mainly focuses on the Nordic market, which can attract another wave of traditional capital. Short-term sentiment is slightly positive, which may bring a small buying wave, and attention will also increase. However, $ZEC spot has actually pulled back about 9% in the past two days, indicating that the positive news has been partially priced in, so don't expect an immediate surge. 👉🏻Long-term impact More importantly, there are more and more compliant entry points. Privacy coins have long been delisted from exchanges and face significant compliance pressure. Now being included in regulated ETPs is equivalent to labeling Zcash as "a legitimate investment option." In the long run, this helps improve institutional acceptance, enhance liquidity, and support the privacy sector narrative. Valour has been intensively launching in the Nordic regionIt's all over, $ZEC has ended its sinful life
Now it's only $370 away from my opening price of $993
It just needs to drop about 25% more to break even
Compared to the smart money data on the 27th
This round liquidated over $100 million long positions
Now it's the longs' turn to tremble
As I said before, coins like ZEC and $UNI that surged hard
When the market pulls back, they fall the hardest
Now the pullback of these two coins has exceeded BTC and ETH
What goes up must come down, whether mainstream or altcoins
It's the same
If nothing unexpected happens, it should break even before this National Day ends.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% LINK hit a new high for the year today, rising nearly 12% in 24 hours.
While the overall market is pulling back, it’s charging upward alone, up 26% so far this year.
The driver is CCIP 2.0, launched on Sunday, designed specifically for institutional cross-chain transfers. Traditional financial giants like SWIFT and DTCC are part of its ecosystem.
Chainlink’s official team has truly brought traditional finance business onto the blockchain this time.
The veteran oracle leader is rallying on institutional narratives, with high volatility—do your own research.#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
The Fed minutes, CPI revisions, and Nvidia earnings stand as three major hurdles ahead, yet digital assets have already switched to "power-saving mode." No clear trend, only a tug of war.
$BTC: Whale accumulation, K-line pretending to sleep
79,800—83,600, a meat grinder causing repeated liquidations for leveraged players. Just after shorting at 80,500, it was instantly pulled back; 83,200 seems within reach, but no one dares to break through first. Curiously, on-chain monitoring shows whales quietly increased holdings by over 40,000 coins in three weeks, while retail balances on exchanges continue to net outflow. On one side, a surging undercurrent of accumulation; on the other, a stagnant market surface—this divergence precisely indicates smart money is waiting for a catalyst, while retail investors have already surrendered their chips.
$ETH: A war of attrition in the corridor
2,480 is the pivot, 2,545 the upper limit, 2,415 the lower limit. The price swings like a pendulum between the two ends, but on-chain data doesn't lie: neither side truly dominates. Long positions at 2,500 can be held, buy the dip boldly, sell on rebounds, treat the base position like a savings account. Until the corridor breaks, all fluctuations are noise, not signals.
$SOL: The lone wolf's honey and poison
From 98 to 106, SOL marches to its own beat. Independent trends are the most tempting but also the most dangerous—it ignores the overall market's rise and fall, but the lonelier it climbs, the more decisive its crash. Those repeatedly battered by one-sided moves now only wish to be spectators.Probability of BTC reaching 100,000 by 2027: 80.5%
Looking at a set of data, since June 21, 2026, BTC has had a cumulative net inflow of $5.55 billion from three sources:
ETF net subscriptions: +$2.23 billion
Public company treasuries: +$326.1 million
Stablecoin net issuance: +$2.99 billion
The most critical change: the growth rate is accelerating
In the past 90 days, the average weekly inflow was $150 million.
But recently, the rate has surged to $4.14 billion per week and continues to accelerate by $360 million per week.
This is not a steady inflow, but an accelerating inflow.
Probability given by the model
At this pace, by 2027:
Reaching $100,000: 80.5%
Reaching $150,000: 28.5%
Further targets:
If BTC accounts for 1% of global investable assets, the price per coin would be about $150,000, requiring a net inflow of approximately $65.6–87.5 billion.
Current progress: 8.5%.CORE: Behind the Pulse Market, Opportunities and Traps Coexist
⚠️This article only reviews on-chain information and does not constitute investment advice
In the rotation of the BTCFi sector, CORE often experiences pulse-style market movements. With EVM compatibility and a large base of retail investors, it shows strong short-term explosive power when the sector heats up. However, the market is well aware that the historical risk of 69 million ghost chips always hangs overhead.
A hard fork fixed the contract vulnerability and destroyed excess tokens within the contract, but it cannot recover the ghost chips that have already entered the market. These low-cost chips are not locked up; when the coin price rises, they become a window for large holders to sell. The market relies more on sector sentiment rather than fundamental improvements. The ecosystem’s many DApps depend heavily on subsidies to survive, with limited real user retention. Most institutions remain cautious, lacking long-term support.
CORE is a speculative target, suitable only for very small position short-term participation. The speculation is on BTCFi rotation sentiment, so it is essential to strictly set take-profit and stop-loss levels and avoid heavy long-term positions. Once large holders make significant transfers, reduce your position promptly.
Do not mistake emotional pulses for fundamental reversals; the ghost chip risk will not disappear out of thin air. Short-term speculation is possible, but position sizing and trading discipline are indispensable to avoid buying at high prices.
#CORE #BTCFi #PublicChainResearch #CryptoMarketAnalysis$CORE’s 2026 buyback isn’t about a fixed date—it’s revenue-driven.
BTCFi revenue → Treasury → CORE buyback → Burn → Reduced supply.
More revenue means more buybacks. It’s a gradual flywheel, not a one-day pump. 🔄
Not financial advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#USTreasuryYieldHigh
#USIranNuclearTalks 👍🏻$ETH ETH surged sharply after 11 o'clock, absolutely amazing, absolutely amazing
Friends, good evening, I am Old Gun Brother Chao, 🐶 the market maker launched a sneak attack again!
Brothers, ETH's surge after 11 o'clock was incredible. It jumped straight from 2657 to 2748, a big bullish candle in one hour that directly broke through the combined resistance of MA5, MA10, and MA20, with a clear increase in trading volume. The reason is simple: 🐶 the market maker took advantage of everyone focusing on the non-farm payroll data to launch a sneak attack, combined with the news of Chainlink CCIP 2.0, directly crushing the shorts, fueling a short squeeze, and naturally pushing the price to take off.
What’s next?
Personal opinion:
Currently, the 1-hour level deviation rate is a bit large, so short-term it will most likely oscillate between 2700 and 2750 to digest profit-taking. The resistance above is first seen at the previous high of 2748, and the support below is at the 2700 round number and the dense moving average area around 2680. Don’t blindly chase highs, or you might get caught at the peak. Hold your spot positions firmly, wait for the contract to pull back and stabilize before entering again, don’t give 🐶 the market maker easy kills!
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
$BTC $ETH Tuesday Evening Gold Outlook
Gold shows signs of bottoming and rebounding, with no further decline during the day. The low was 4113, and the high surged to 4161. Intraday resistance at 4160‑4180 supports a short-selling strategy; last night, a long position at 4118 was exited with profit at 4146. Earlier indications suggested a need for rebound correction in the market, cautioning against shorting at low levels. Today's upward oscillation has been confirmed.
The 4-hour chart still shows a downward oscillation pattern, with short-term resistance at 4180, strong resistance at 4200‑4216, and key support at 4100. Overall, the strategy remains to short on rebounds, without rushing to enter positions, waiting for the rebound to complete before planning entries.
Trading Advice
Short gold at rebound near 4180, add shorts at 4200‑4215, stop loss at 4223, target 4100, hold if broken.As soon as the market breaks through, some people shout that Bitcoin will reach new highs of 500,000 or even 1,000,000. Bitcoin's scale has grown to this level today, and the multiples of the four-year cycle will only continue to converge.
This cycle can reach around 200,000 at most. Instead of guessing the ceiling every day, it's better to steadily accumulate enough chips below 100,000 in batches.
Looking back at previous cycles, from 2013 to 2017 it rose 17 times, from 2017 to 2021 it rose 3.5 times, and from 2021 to 2025 it will only rise 1.8 times.
With the market cap base set, diminishing returns are an inevitable rule. If the four-year cycle still holds, don't expect it to break through 250,000; 180,000 to 200,000 is a very reasonable top range.
Currently, there is still more than double the space to the target. As long as the price remains below 100,000, I will keep using a dollar-cost averaging strategy to buy in batches. Only when it truly stands above 100,000 will I consider pausing.
In trading, avoid fantasies of getting rich quick; methodically securing the profits you should get is what counts.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 😂 ZEC once fell back to around $1,430, while BTC regained its position at $84.2K, ETH returned to around $2.7K, and SOL remained relatively strong, with ZEC alone still under pressure. Brothers chasing long ZEC today are probably starting to question their lives. When the market rises, it is always half a beat behind; when the market pulls back, the decline often accelerates faster than other mainstream coins. However, this extreme divergence also indicates that short-term funds are clearly readjusting their positions. Next, attention should be paid to changes in risk appetite after the US market opens, as well as upcoming PCE inflation and nonfarm payroll data to be released this week. If US Treasury yields remain high, volatility in the crypto market may further amplify. Additionally, BTC spot ETF capital flows have continued to attract market attention. If institutional funds continue net inflows, BTC's relative resilience may continue; Conversely, if macro data again raises pressure on rate cut expectations, the volatility of altcoins usually becomes more pronounced. Tonight, the US stock market opens, so I won't stir around for now. Take profits when you need to, reduce positions where you need to reduce them, and let the market handle the rest. Key ZEC areas: $1,420–$1,450 BTC Focus: $83.5K–$85K ETH focus: $2.65K–$2.75K The most important thing now is not chasing gains or selling lows, but controlling positions and acting only when the direction truly emerges $ZEC $BTC $ETH $SOL #ZEC #BTC #PCE #NonfI have both Aave and Uni, and my positions are not small.
To be honest, the reason I managed to catch them has nothing to do with my knowledge.
Back in 2023, I started researching DeFi tokens. At that time, I only bought half a position in Bitcoin, and later the price went up, but I didn't buy more.
This was basically a missed opportunity. I had no choice but to start researching altcoins. Back then, I still had some investment principles and only chose tokens with real fundamentals, so I focused on DeFi.
I chose three tokens at the time: Uni, Aave, and Sky. Sky was previously MKR, but it performed too weakly later, so I sold it.
I kept holding Uni and Aave because trading and lending are two top essential financial needs. This market is large enough, and both protocols are leaders in their respective fields with real revenue, far stronger than those worthless, random altcoins. I believed the bull market would definitely break historical highs.
The results were not ideal. During the bull market peaks in 2024 and 2025, Aave reached 399, with a historical high of 660, and Uni only reached 19, with a historical high of 45.
More importantly, at that time, my belief was very extreme, thinking that holding long-term would make them go higher like Bitcoin, and that long-term holding would win.
So, this brought a lesson: altcoins cannot be held long-term, nor should one be blinded by faith to hold without moving. They are only suitable for cyclical swings.Probability of $BTC reaching 100,000 in 2027: 80.5%
Looking at a set of data, since June 21, 2026, the cumulative net inflow is 5.55 billion USD, including:
ETF net subscriptions: +2.23 billion
Public company treasuries: +326.1 million
Stablecoin net issuance: +2.99 billion
The most critical data: in the past 90 days, an average of 150 million USD flows into Bitcoin weekly. But recently, the pace has surged to 360 million USD per week.
At this rate, the probability of BTC hitting 100,000 in 2027 is 80.5%. The probability of hitting 150,000 is 28.5%.
If BTC accounts for 1% of global investable assets, each coin would be worth about 150,000 USD, requiring a net inflow of approximately 65.6–87.5 billion USD, with current progress at 8.5%. ⚡ $SOL | SHORTS WORLD
SOL is holding near $117, but the chart still needs confirmation before calling the next major move.
📉 Bearish map:
🔴 $122–$125 → key rejection zone
🟡 $114–$116 → first support
⚠️ Below $114 → $110 becomes the next level
🔥 Below $110 → momentum could accelerate lower
Fundamentals remain active, with strong Solana ETF flows and growing network usage—but fundamental growth ≠ guaranteed token upside.
For shorts, watch spot volume + OI + $122 reclaim/rejection. While depositing stablecoins into Binance, ETH is being withdrawn.
According to Yujin/Lookonchain and Odaily, ChainCatcher on 9/29: The whale qianbaidu.eth (0x96d…445) transferred about 25.75 million USDT into Binance in the past half hour, while withdrawing 7,500 ETH worth approximately $20.53 million from Binance. Compared to the new address created at 19:00 today which deposited 9,132 ETH, and the stETH swap into Bitget at 20:00, these are different entities; the combination of USDT in + ETH out is NEW.
Depositing stablecoins ≠ completed position building; withdrawing coins ≠ necessarily hoarding or selling; monitoring ENS tags ≠ confirmed entity. At the time of writing, OKX ETH is about 2735. Not investment advice.
$ETH In terms of macro data, the non-farm payroll data on October 2, the consumer price index on October 14, and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 28 will be the next key catalysts. If inflation and employment data remain strong, the market may continue to price in rate hike risks; if the data declines, it could release more room for risk assets. Oil prices and the 10-year US Treasury yield remain important synchronous indicators for assessing real liquidity.
Regarding price, Bitcoin is currently consolidating near the highs after a strong breakout. The price rebounded from about $75,600, pulled back to the $84,000 to $85,000 range after breaking through $87,000, briefly dipped below $83,000 during this period but quickly recovered. ETFs continue to record net inflows, providing support below; however, daily inflows are gradually decreasing, and rising US Treasury yields have slowed upward momentum. If Bitcoin can stabilize around $84,000 and increase volume again, it is expected to challenge $87,000 to $90,000 again; if it breaks below $82,000, it may test the $80,000 psychological level. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ARB
The demand for Ethereum scaling still exists, so why does ARB still need to prove value capture?
Transaction volume and ecosystem size do not equal token revenue. Valuation will only improve if fees, governance, and token demand form a closed loop.
If on-chain growth cannot be transmitted to the token, I will remain cautious. I don't know where people come from saying Bitcoin moves with 10% volatility spikes all the time
But I, Xiaoma, watch the market every day now, and I haven't encountered the so-called daily 10% volatility
How do those people hype up the 10% volatility?
The spikes don't care about time; in the dead of night when liquidity is thin, suddenly it stabs you, the needle comes unexpectedly, leaving a long tail on the candlestick, and the price pulls back in seconds—you blink and you miss it.
This scary single-day 10% big drop or surge, if you don't trade, you'd think it happens every day like clocking in for work haha
This "limited edition drama" only shows up when bad news hits, the market panics collectively, and leveraged positions cascade liquidations, performing an epic dive once.
It's like thunder—not every day, but when it strikes, it roars.
Now in this consolidation phase, Bitcoin mainly "drags its feet," neither going up nor down, just swinging back and forth, slowly wearing down the patience of contract traders.
If Xiaoma didn't watch the real market closely, I wouldn't understand the situation; most days, the market just drags back and forth.
The most tormenting thing about a choppy market: waiting every day for big moves, but all you get is repeated back-and-forth sweeps, occasional spikes dropping by to visit, how much longer for a 10% big move?
Please, let a pie fall from the sky, so Xiaoma can earn some pocket money 😭😭😭
$BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ZEC finally dropped for me, finally got some profit
The first time I shorted, I got stuck, but I didn't run.
The second time, I actually kept adding to my short position.
At the worst moment, ZEC surged all the way to 1694, I almost doubted if I shorted wrong 😂
Now it's 1485.
The short position profit finally hit 48%.
The more stubborn I was before, the more satisfying it is now.Before going to bed, I saw $ZEC reached 1355, thinking breaking 1400 would face quite a big resistance, so I set a stop at 1406. When I woke up, it had risen by several more points.
Honestly, in the crypto world, except for $BTC which is recognized as digital gold, everything else has issues, especially the so-called decentralization that leads to lack of regulation. The lack of regulation has created situations like $ZEC where foolish coin manipulators and market makers collude to keep squeezing shorts, while exchanges remain indifferent.
Recently, the same happened with one and ake, where market makers clearly cooperated with manipulators to pump prices and blow out shorts, yet exchanges issued no warnings ⚠️ for these two coins. So, nowadays, trading crypto is nothing more than satisfying a gambling urge; there’s no real trading anymore!$0G The short positions slightly outnumber the long ones, but it's still not enough fuel to trigger a breakout, purely a bear trap ZEC, finally stopped pretending.
Falling hard from the highs, the market finally realized: this is not a pullback, it's a clearing of accounts.
My short position at $993 is now only $370 away from breakeven. To put it another way, it still needs to drop another 25% to break even. Sounds close, but feels far when moving.
After the smart money data on the 27th, over $100 million long positions were wiped out in this round. Those who chased the rally earlier are now collectively silent. When the longs start to shake, the shorts aren't much better off—just losing less counts as winning.
Should have known earlier, ZEC and UNI, which soared high in the early stage, go into ICU whenever the market coughs. Their pullback magnitude surpassing BTC and ETH is not a surprise, it's a pattern. After a surge comes a crash; mainstream altcoins are treated the same.
Before the National Day ends, I might break even on this position. But breaking even just means exiting, not turning the game around. This round of ZEC has exposed both greed and luck.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ZEC The daily trend remains bullish, but the 30-minute chart has weakened.
Daily: MA5 still supports the price, the overall ascending channel is intact, MACD is turning, bullish momentum is clearly weakening, high-level consolidation, bulls and bears begin to contest.
30 minutes: KDJ has reached a low level, MACD remains underwater, the rebound is weak, the 1550–1560 area above is a heavy resistance zone; as long as it can't break through this range, short-term bears dominate. Is restoring energy export capabilities in the Middle East + US preparations to lift sanctions on Russia really benefit current US-Iran negotiations? Today's US-Iran negotiations have been full of twists and turns. #美伊继续谈判, nuclear issues and sanctions have become new focal points. According to AP, Iran has released a new version of the seven-day plan proposed by Iran to the US. The first phase requires Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, and the US to lift its port blockade on Iran, followed by a gradual lifting of sanctions on Iran. However, the core of the new negotiations remains no nuclear weapons + no charges for the strait. Iran has not officially confirmed the accuracy of the latest revision, clearly needing to weigh internal pressures and make a comprehensive assessment of the negotiation terms. At this critical moment, Trump directly denied the news of lifting sanctions with nuclear weapons, overturning all previous negotiation progress. Iran only said the dialogue window was not closed and they were waiting for the US to respond. It is important to note why Trump suddenly rejected the previous demand. I think the core point is that for two consecutive days, both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have seen data on energy exports resuming. According to data collection agencies, Middle East energy exports have significantly recovered. On the other hand, media reports support Trump supporting lifting sanctions on Russia on the condition of releasing prisoners, which is actually not good for the US-Iran situation. Previously, Trump suggested that purchasing Russian diesel might offset the difficulties in Middle East energy exports. If sanctions on Russia are lifted and diesel imports secured, the US domestic energy shortage will be alleviated. Overall, such as$PUMP trading volume is shrinking, it should be about time, start shorting it, I really don't believe I can't take a bite#US-Iran negotiations continue, nuclear issues and sanctions become new focal points
US-Iran negotiations repeatedly tug back and forth! Oil prices plunge, BTC gets a breather window
😁😁😁
Recently, oil prices had just surged strongly due to Middle East geopolitical risks, only to be pushed back into a volatile range by easing news from US-Iran talks.
🤔🤔🤔
Currently, a new round of indirect US-Iran negotiations is ongoing, with Qatar continuing to mediate. The Strait of Hormuz navigation remains a core issue, and the focus of the game has further extended to Iran's nuclear program and the US side's sanctions relief plan. The market frequently experiences news reversals: reports that the US is willing to exchange progress on Iran's nuclear program for partial sanctions relief were directly denied by Trump; rumors that Iran might adjust its uranium enrichment policy were also officially refuted. Neither side has reached any substantive consensus yet.
After the news, international oil prices, which had surged over 4% earlier, quickly gave back gains, with WTI closing down 1.99% and Brent down 1.27%, and the geopolitical risk premium rapidly fading.
For the $BTC market, this is a clear short-term positive. The oil price pullback effectively cools market inflation expectations, indirectly reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. The two main pressures suppressing BTC recently—US Treasury yields and high oil prices—have seen oil price pressure notably ease, giving the crypto market some breathing room on macro sentiment.
However, avoid blindly chasing the rally. This round of negotiations is full of reversals, with both sides sticking to their positions and refusing to concede, and the situation could reverse at any time. BTC is currently oscillating narrowly around 83,500, with short-term resistance at 85,000 and support at 82,000. There are always people in the market who worry on my behalf. As soon as the ZEC short position showed profit, the comments urged: Run quickly, don’t be greedy. Some even predicted earlier that this position would eventually take me out.
I didn’t argue. The account is mine, and so are the decisions. No matter how loud the noise, it doesn’t bear my profits or losses.
Why am I still holding? From the start, it wasn’t about catching a rebound or playing a one-night stand trade. The medium-to-long term is about logic fulfillment, not a few minutes of candlesticks. I didn’t panic during floating losses, nor rush to celebrate floating profits. Opening a position at the peak is a myth; most trades are endured through repeated tug-of-wars.
Shorting, longing, short-term, long-term—there’s no inherent right or wrong, only whether it matches the market and personality. Some start with the wind, some turn around against it. What gets you to the end isn’t stubbornness, but position sizing, discipline, and mindset.
This time ZEC made me clearer: altcoin manipulation and sentiment are too wild, the heartbeat cost is too high. Going forward, the focus remains on BTC and ETH, mainstream liquidity is better, and the logic is cleaner. As for now, let the profits run a bit longer, let the market speak for itself.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 100x Challenge — Day 64 📈
💰 Capital: ¥6,956
📊 Total Profit: +¥4,356
💸 Withdrawn: ¥400
$BTC short: 87K → added at 84.7K. Plan: protect at breakeven and scale profits around 77–79K.
$CL long: 89 → added at 92.3, partial profit taken at 96.59. Stop moved to breakeven.
Volatility is rising—protect the capital, let the winners run. ⚡#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USTreasuryYieldHigh Trump's "Strongest Employment Argument," the Market Only Awaits October 2nd
Trump's statement that "more people are working in the U.S. now than at any time in history" sounds like a campaign slogan, but it makes the market reflexively think of the nonfarm payrolls.
Currently, August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The next September employment report will be released on October 2nd. If employment remains strong, the market may reprice "rate cuts are not coming so soon," and BTC and ETH will naturally come under pressure.
My view remains bearish: short BTC around 84,500, short ETH around 2,700. Positions have been set up in advance; I won't chase after the data is released.
However, I won't take Trump's words as the direct answer to the nonfarm payrolls. Political rhetoric cannot replace the Labor Department's data; the real direction will be decided on October 2nd.
If the nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, first see if BTC can hold; if there is another round of sell-off, this early positioning will be considered a correct bet. Before the data comes out, everything is just expectation, not fact.
So, is Trump spoiling the plot early this time, or just boasting again? The answer is not in his mouth, but on October 2nd.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 ETH｜Pre-market US Stock Analysis: Aggressive Breakout, Continue Buying on Pullback!
ETH aggressively broke through 2730 in the pre-market session, confirming the afternoon's analysis. The consolidation range was successfully broken upward, releasing short-term bullish momentum.
Currently, the first resistance level is set at 2780, which is a previous dense chip area, likely to trigger profit-taking and a pullback.
Next, focus on the strength of support in the 2700–2720 pullback zone:
Bullish scenario: If the pullback holds the 2700~2720 support, it indicates the breakout is valid, the bullish structure is solid, and the price will continue to test 2780, further expanding the upside.
Bearish scenario: If the pullback breaks below 2700 effectively, it is a false breakout; this rally was a bull trap, and the market will return to consolidation, requiring a reassessment of direction.
On the correlation front, closely monitor BTC trends. The Nasdaq and US Treasury yields during pre-market and market hours will continue to disturb risk asset volatility. Coupled with this week's dense US economic data, volatility will increase, and intraday spikes will become more frequent.
Trading strategy: Do not chase highs; wait for pullback support to observe strength; if support holds, then consider challenging 2780; once support fails, abandon this bullish expectation and avoid false breakout pullback risks.
Stay patient and do not let short-term intraday fluctuations disrupt your rhythm. Pre-market analysis of US stocks, full recovery in storage sector, large capital inflow on the eve of earnings reports 🔥
Tonight there are several positive events, which help restore market sentiment
The first is news that Iran may restart negotiations, the second is that Trump will meet with AI giants tonight.
Nvidia announced a buyback, aiming to convince the market that AI capital can generate cash returns. I think today's opening may not see much volatility, overall it might open high and then trend lower, because the market is waiting for an important data release and a key earnings report.
However, the overall tone is positive, after all, storage profits are quite substantial; it depends on whether it can meet the market's high expectations $ETH Are you trying to take over the main market and create an independent trend?
It has repeatedly tested 2700 these past two days, and today Bitcoin only rebounded to 84300.
Meanwhile, Ethereum just bounced back near 2740, why do I find it so hard to trust you?
So the leader of the bears reversed and got back in around 2735 with a short position.
Using 20x leverage with isolated margin, testing the waters first by adding positions every 100 dollars,
Take profit is expected around 2630-2650, stop loss is yet to be determined.All three brothers are in the red tonight. BTC 84,369, up 1.14% in 24 hours, just one step away from the hot list's stated 86,000. ETH 2,735 up 1.8%, leading the pack for two consecutive days; SOL 121 up 1%, catching up. Honestly, this rise is a bit naked. Rates are flat across the board: BTC +0.0003%, basically zero—just turned positive at noon to +0.0039%, then slipped back by night. The bulls' confidence shrank quickly. ETH +0.0074%, SOL +0.0023%, the three together still barely fill the gaps. Bulls are bullish but don't even pay interest—this is what you call someone igniting the fire, no one adding fuel. OI 28,351 BTC, 2.39 billion USD, no increased holdings since daytime. Spot is pushing, leverage is watching the show. So my judgment: a rise without leverage is either a prelude to genuine buying or a weak rebound. When a real market starts, rates can't be this quiet. Conditions for falsification: rates return above 0.01%, OI expands to over 30,000 BTC, this "naked rally" judgment is invalid. You use this to slap me in the face. At noon, I said ETH's independent strength hadn't figured it out. After watching all afternoon, the tendency is that funds are lying in wait for the macro events in October. No solid proof, just a feeling, I'll note this first. Tomorrow is PCE, Friday nonfarm payrolls plus options expire. At the 86,000 mark, do you think it was just a quick breakthrough, or was it pushed back again?US-Iran negotiations resume, when will the Bitcoin deadlock break?
The US and Iran are back at the negotiating table, but this time the focus has escalated from the Strait of Hormuz to the ultimate showdown over "nuclear issues" and "sanctions." The US demands Iran completely abandon its nuclear program, while Iran wants the US to fully lift sanctions—one wants payment first, the other wants to test the waters first; the stalemate remains.
For the crypto market, geopolitical uncertainty acts like an invisible hand, repeatedly pressing Bitcoin within the 83,000 to 85,000 range. It can neither rise nor fall.
But from another perspective: the harsher the US sanctions, the more Iran relies on cryptocurrencies for foreign trade settlements. The Central Bank of Iran has previously allowed BTC and USDT for settlements, which is actually a long-term positive for Bitcoin's "censorship resistance" attribute—though it won't show up on tonight's K-line.
Strategically, don't rush to bet on direction. The 85,300 level above is a wall of sighs, and 83,000 below is the lifeline. With non-farm payroll and PCE data coming this week, keep your hands steady until then.
· If it pulls back and stabilizes near 83,000, go light long with a stop loss at 82,500 and a target of 84,500;
· If it rebounds to 85,000 with low volume, go light short with a stop loss at 85,500 and a target of 83,500.
The deadlock at the negotiating table is not necessarily a dead end on the K-line. Patience is more important than direction. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% Old Leek Observation】
$XRP
There was a change in XRP's upgrade node today.
Originally, the market was focused on the XRPL Batch upgrade scheduled for September 29, but the XRPL official urgently released version 3.4.1 on September 25 to fix security-sensitive issues and added a new fixBatchV1_2 amendment. The original Batch upgrade expectation has therefore been postponed, and the official currently expects the new fix to be activated on October 9.
However, the capital flow has not stopped. On September 28, the US XRP spot ETF net inflow was about $3.96 million, with a cumulative net inflow reaching $1.79 billion.
So XRP is a bit interesting now:
Technical upgrade delayed for fixes, but ETF funds are still flowing in.
Current price is about $1.55.
Entry: $1.48–1.55
Take profit: $1.62 / $1.70 / $1.82 / $1.96 / $2.15
Stop loss: $1.40
If it falls below $1.40, abandon this structure first. After stop loss, exit immediately. Core Risk Warnings
1. 82,500-82,885 is the weekly "life-and-death line": this level is close to the upper boundary of the 2022 accumulation pattern. Only if it is effectively converted into support can the inverse head and shoulders reversal signal be considered confirmed. If it fails and cannot be regained, the price may fall back to the 60,000-80,000 USD range for consolidation.
2. 81,722 is the "break-even line" for ETF investors: if the daily closing price falls below this level, the average holder will be at a loss, potentially triggering larger-scale redemption pressure.
3. A 137% plunge in derivatives CVD is the most dangerous liquidity signal: market makers are net selling heavily, the market has completely shifted from buyer dominance to seller dominance, indicating clear distribution behavior. The huge open interest means that if prices fall further, it could trigger a chain liquidation.
4. The probability of a rate hike in October has risen to 70.3%: if PCE data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will further increase, suppressing risk asset valuations.
5. The liquidation danger zone for long positions below is $1.616 billion: if BTC falls below 79,328 USD, the cumulative long liquidation intensity will reach $1.616 billion, representing the largest current structural risk.
6. Extremely thin liquidity amplifies volatility risk: the combined depth of the top 5 buy and sell orders is less than 0.07 BTC, so even small orders can trigger severe price fluctuations, and any medium-sized order may amplify short-term volatility $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Institutional funds make a strong comeback. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.4 billion last week, marking the strongest single-week record since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT led with approximately $1.2 billion, and ETF fund flows in 2026 have fully reversed from a net outflow of $5.7 billion in July. JPMorgan increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings to $356 million, a quarter-over-quarter growth of 119.6%, and re-established exposure to XRP.
RWA and AI agents accelerate integration. Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee pointed out that tokenization and AI agents could become the two main driving forces of the next cycle. BlackRock expects more assets to be brought on-chain, and fintech companies like Revolut have already built businesses based on Ethereum. RWA is evolving from "on-chain holding" to an interest-bearing, collateralizable strategic foundation, while AI agents are moving from "providing information" to "autonomous decision-making and execution."
Eight Chinese government departments jointly reiterated that virtual currency business is an illegal financial activity and prohibited domestic RWA tokenization business; bipartisan-supported crypto structural legislation in the US is expected to be enacted within the year, with increased regulatory clarity clearing obstacles for institutional entry.
Privacy becomes a key moat. a16z listed privacy as the most important competitive barrier in the crypto field in 2026, with "secret as a service" upgrading from an application-layer patch to core infrastructure. The convergence of privacy, RWA, and AI agents is reshaping the operational logic of next-generation on-chain finance. BTC broke through the resistance level at the 2700 integer mark. As long as BTC can maintain above 2700, it will continue to challenge 2742-2784-2806, looking upward step by step. Currently, BTC is consolidating and oscillating between 2742 and 2700. As long as the pullback does not break below 2700, nothing serious will happen. If it breaks below 2700, it will retest the support at 2634, and this time it is very likely to break below 2634 during the retest. Because if you look at the highest price of the K-line indicated by the red arrow above, it did not break the previous high at 2742. If the rebound cannot break the previous high, it will definitely retest 2634 again. This 2634 support has been retested many times, and it may not hold this time unless BTC can break through 2742 and form a new high in the upcoming movement. Only then will the retest not break the 2634 support; otherwise, it will definitely break. BTC broke through 2722 with volume, attracting aggressive buyers on the right side; 2698 broke down with volume, attracting sellers on the right side. Pay attention to volume changes and set stop losses properly. On the hourly level, BTC stabilizes above 2722, looking upward to 2742-2784. On the 4-hour level, BTC breaks below 2700, looking downward to 2653-2634. Why is BTC so strong? Because the exchange rate daily level has never broken below the 0.032 support and has always remained above the daily bullish trend line. That's why BTC is strong. As long as the BTC exchange rate daily level stays above 0.032, BTC won't weaken. Currently, the BTC exchange rate daily chart seems to be forming a W bottom pattern. Once the W bottom pattern is established on the BTC exchange rate daily level, BTC will be even stronger than now.$BTC
Retesting demand at the range breakout. Even if the market has already topped, it should bounce here for another retest of the highs. I still think it can go a bit higher. Don’t take the projected chart below too seriously, price can move in a similar way, but not exactly; it’s only a rough idea.U.S. Treasury yields are soaring, so how can U.S. stocks still trade sideways or even hit new highs?
In traditional finance, interest rates anchor asset pricing, and a surge in bond yields inevitably drains liquidity from the stock market. This divergence seems illogical at first glance; earnings have forced valuations down, and the market is engaged in an aggressive options game.
Looking at the forward P/E ratio dropping to 19x, many think it's because EPS surged 29%, building a solid foundation. But U.S. stocks have been fundamentally transformed by tech giants.
These cash-rich giants are almost immune to high interest rates and can even earn interest income from them. They account for the vast majority of EPS growth, single-handedly supporting the broader market and masking the reality that small- and mid-cap stocks are suffering under high interest rates.
The unwinding of yen carry trades acts like a latent contagion chain ready to ignite at any moment. The Bank of Japan's rate hike forces capital back to Japan; selling U.S. Treasuries pushes yields higher, but this international capital exiting the bond market hasn't fled risk assets. Instead, it has flowed into the most certain AI computing core stocks in the U.S. market. U.S. stocks have become the last safe haven amid a global liquidity contraction wave.
The market is likely to face a forced liquidation next. When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks a critical threshold, borrowing costs will accelerate transmission to real businesses.
Once end-consumer demand is pressured, EPS growth expectations will crack. If this earnings foundation weakens, the suppressed interest rate pressure will instantly explode, and U.S. stocks will likely undergo a rapid valuation correction.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $ICP
That one in the corner no one pays attention to has jumped up the gain rankings today.
Current price 3.34, up 11.8% intraday, contract positions increased by 15%.
Long accounts make up over 60%, the heat is just starting, not many chasing yet.
We’re not rushing to enter, let’s see if the pullback can hold; if it breaks today’s low, we’ll pull out first.
Will you wait here for the pullback, or chase directly?
This is just my observation of the market, for analysis only, trade at your own risk.
$ICP #USIranNuclearTalks Oil dropping despite no US-Iran deal caught my attention 👀
It suggests markets are already pricing some chance of diplomacy before anything is signed. But disputed sanctions, enrichment and frozen-asset terms show how fragile that optimism is.
The bigger risk may be expectations getting ahead of negotiations. Real progress could remove more of oil's supply premium.
A breakdown could put it back just as quickly.NVIDIA's massive buyback, first see who the money is spent on
$150 billion, this number is eye-catching. On September 28, NVIDIA announced that the board has added this stock repurchase authorization, with a remaining available buyback quota totaling $235 billion. The company expects to complete the remaining plan within fiscal year 2028.
When reading this news, the key is to separate "approved quota" and "already purchased." Authorization is equivalent to allocating space for the buyback arrangement; how much money is actually spent and how many shares are repurchased will be disclosed later during execution.
This arrangement targets NVIDIA's own stock. From a shareholder's perspective, one can continue to observe the buyback price, cash flow, and changes in share capital to judge how well this capital allocation is done.
In the crypto space, I would add this to the AI industry watchlist. When looking at a certain AI token, you need to dig one layer deeper: what actual connection does the project have with this industry chain? Where does the revenue come from? How is business growth passed on to token holders?
If these questions remain unanswered, just because the name contains AI and you think you can also get a share of the buyback money, it somewhat feels like a neighboring company issuing year-end bonuses while you prematurely hold a celebration banquet.
NVIDIA has its own shareholder list; your wallet address will not automatically appear on it.
#NVIDIA #AIHotspot #CryptoWatch $BTC is stuck above $84,000; the more it moves sideways, the more cautious you need to be.
Currently, $BTC is fluctuating around $84,300, having once surged to $84,421 during the day before pulling back to hover near the highs.
The real short-term key is not this one or two hundred dollars, but whether $84,500 can be effectively broken through. If it breaks out with volume and holds, market sentiment may heat up further; if it can’t surpass this level, be wary of repeated high-level fluctuations.
On the downside, first watch $83,000, then $82,000.
The current market situation is simple: a breakout signals continuation, a breakdown signals a pullback, so be patient and wait before a breakout occurs.$BTC $ETH $OKB
Today’s rebound looks more like a short squeeze than a confirmed reversal.
With PCE and NFP ahead, macro uncertainty is still high. One green candle doesn’t erase the risks from elevated yields.
Don’t chase the pump or over-leverage. Let the data speak first, then follow the trend. 📊
#MicronEarningsAhead #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #TokenizedStocksOnAave $AVAX suddenly moved today
The price once surged close to $12, and now it’s still hovering above $11. More importantly, this time it wasn’t just a single spike pushing it up; the trading volume also increased.
I checked several timeframes; the 4-hour chart has already broken through the previous consolidation range, and after the breakout, it didn’t immediately fall back. This is more noteworthy than just a simple 10% rise.
Looking at the futures market, the changes are even more obvious.
I saw the 4-hour open interest increase from about 18.27 million to 25.65 million, indicating new positions entered during the rise.
Interestingly, the long-short account ratio dropped from about 2.49 to around 1.50.
In other words, the price is rising, but the market isn’t increasingly unified in chasing longs.
The funding rate hasn’t spiked significantly either, at least it hasn’t reached an overly crowded sentiment yet.
First, watch $12 above, which is the level just touched today.
The most important support below is $11.
If the price later retests around $11 with reduced volume and holds steady, then today’s breakout is quite significant.
Conversely, if it quickly falls back below $11 after breaking $12, be cautious that today’s bullish candle might be a false breakout.
So I won’t chase now.
For a sharp rally like AVAX’s, the comfortable entry point is often not the first big bullish candle but the first pullback after the breakout.
Next, we’ll see if $11 can turn from resistance into support.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK BTC is in a bit of a strange state right now.
The price is still around $83,000, actually quite far from the summer low.
But the money in the futures market is actually withdrawing.
BTC futures open interest is now about 652,000 BTC.
At the beginning of the year, it was close to 800,000 BTC.
What's even more interesting is that the funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned negative again.
In plain terms:
Among those who stay to continue playing with leverage, the short side is now more active, even willing to pay to maintain short positions.
So on the surface, BTC's price doesn't look particularly bad.
But the sentiment in the contract market is clearly much colder than what the candlestick chart shows.
I actually think that moments like this are more worth watching than sharp rises or falls.
The price hasn't said much, but the positions have already spoken first.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Futures #MarketWatchI am the boss. $BTC current price is 84395.0, the 1-hour candlestick has returned to the high range, hovering and oscillating below the previous high of 84464.8.
Short-term resistance is at 85137.5, key support at 82982.5.
Only by holding above the 84464.8 threshold does the market have a chance to challenge 85137.5 upwards; if multiple attempts to break the top fail and support at 82982.5 is broken, this rebound will start a correction to test the low support at 82501.
This rebound benefits from the stimulus of the UK Bitcoin ETF approval news, with the 1-hour MACD maintaining a bullish range, and volume contracting compared to the previous surge. The market is undergoing a recovery driven by positive news, not a unilateral main rise. There is accumulated trapped position overhead resistance, so every rally faces selling pressure.
Currently, the range has strong oscillation characteristics, with bulls and bears battling back and forth, frequent wick sweeps to stop losses will occur, so avoid heavy positions betting on a one-sided breakout. The marginal effect of positive news is gradually weakening, and it is necessary to observe whether funds can continue to enter.
This is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC
#UKsFirstBitcoinETFApproved
#BTCHighRangeOscillationWaitingForDirection