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Price only rose 25%, but profits surged 253%, 10x leverage is really sweet!
On the 20th, $ONE soared to 0.0044. I opened a long at 0.00315. The logic is an oversold rebound plus AI narrative.
A couple of days ago, ONE short squeeze was severe, funding rates extremely negative, rising over 550% in 7 days. Price rose 25.3%, leverage amplified the profits.
Watching the 0.0037 support next, if it holds, it can push to 0.005; if broken, look at 0.0031. $BTC $ETH $STX Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary worry.
Before going to bed last night, I was still watching STX. The pullback didn't break the key support level, buying pressure gradually strengthened, and there were buyers below. I indicated at the time that as long as the support holds, the long position has potential, so don't be scared off by small fluctuations.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move. From 0.2671 to 0.3248, the long position gained +431.29%, feeling great, brothers. The earlier grind was frustrating, but coming out of it feels really good; this profit is solid.
Take profit on 70% first, pocket the main portion, and protect the remaining 30% at cost. Let profits run if it continues to rise, but don't let gains turn uncomfortable on a pullback. Take profits when it's time, don't be greedy for the last bit.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and I will notify you immediately. Move only when the next signal comes; patiently await good news.
Hold as long as the trend is intact, exit if it breaks; don't fall in love with the market.
$BTC $LAB $UNI perpetual 50x long position, opened at 4.41, currently 8.849, unrealized profit +5032.87%.
Market observation: UNI started the main uptrend from the June low around $2.4, breaking through the 200-day EMA and the long-term downtrend line, with the moving average system fully bullish (MA20>MA60>MA200). The current price 8.849 is approaching the strong resistance zone of 9.00-9.44 (previous high concentration area + upper Bollinger Band). MACD has formed a second golden cross above zero, RSI is strong but not extremely overbought. Support below is at 8.00-7.80 (breakout confirmation zone/psychological level), secondary support at 7.20-7.50. The large-scale main uptrend structure remains intact, with a small-scale test of extreme resistance.
Bottom reversal + bullish moving averages + volume-price breakout resonance. I followed up with a long position at 4.41 (trend start point), with a stop loss set at 3.8 covering liquidity. Strict position control with 50x leverage.
Current price 8.849, trailing stop moved up to 8.00. A breakout above 9.44 targets 10-11; a drop below 7.80 warns of a false breakout and pullback. $ZEC $ONE While others were still waiting for the moon mission bullish news, I already went short and earned 252% profit!
On September 14, the DOGE-1 launch pumped up the sentiment. But with Bitwise ETF liquidation plus SANGRIX selling 3 million coins, there was double bearish pressure. On the 20th, I opened a short at 0.08992.
$DOGE pulled back, actually dropping about 4.8%. With 50x leverage, the profit soared to 252%.
Looking ahead, 0.0813 is support, breaking below 0.078, and 0.089 is the watershed. $ZEC $ONE In the past two days, no fewer than five people have asked me: When will the crash happen?
Let me say at the beginning, for all my analyses to come, whether bullish or bearish, I will not give any advice to those holding positions.
Because that would mean involving myself in your cause and effect, which brings me no benefit.
I suggest you cut your losses early; if a crash happens, you might blame me; if I suggest you hold on and it drops to 90,000, you might want to blame me and my whole family.
What I truly hope is that you have your own trading system, rather than just holding positions and then analyzing after being deeply trapped.
If you hold short positions and they are stuck, every analysis you make will revolve around how to get out of the short position.
It’s far from the moving average, it will pull back, hold on a bit.
Interest rates have risen, a crash is coming, hold on a bit.
Initial jobless claims have decreased, a crash is coming, hold on a bit.
Inflation is above the 2% target, a crash is coming, hold on a bit more.
But in the end, after all the bad news has landed, the price went up.
I have long said that bad news can’t push the price down; the news has been priced in, yet you are still waiting for the moment it lands to cause a crash. It seems you really don’t understand finance well.
I have also said this many times in the channel. Video analyses, written analyses, all urging you to get on board, yet you seem to think I am trying to harm you.
And when you start losing money, you remember Brother K.
Every time the price rises, you always have a reason to hold on a bit longer. Even if it drops 1,000 points, you think there will be another 1,000 points down.
From 60,000 to 70,000, you think it can’t possibly go to 80,000, it must pull back; when it reaches 80,000, you think it can’t possibly go to 90,000, so hold on a bit more, it’s going to come down.
Of course, my analysis is not telling you to go long now and take profit at 90,000.
You can consider buying spot this year, or do dollar-cost averaging. This is the least technically demanding method and has no risk of forced liquidation on contracts, but it doesn’t mean the price won’t drop.
I am waiting, waiting for the big Bitcoin at 73,000, then going all in.
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading thought record, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation.Calm Review: How Did I Earn 263% from a $ONDO Short Position?
ONDO dropped on the 20th. I saw the unlocking sell pressure and internal conflict news, so I opened a 50x short at 0.4317.
In the past two days, ONDO has been hit by double negative factors. The price fell from 0.4317 to 0.409, a drop of about 5.2%, amplified by leverage.
Looking ahead, 0.39 is support; if it breaks, expect 0.35. Only above 0.43 will it turn strong. Manage your risk. $ZEC $ONE I had to look at the $ZEC chart twice.
from around $193 in March to above $1,500, almost an 8x move in a few months.
privacy is clearly back in focus, but the latest leg looks driven by more than fundamentals: short squeezes, chasing, and each breakout feeding the next.
I’m not trying to call the exact top. I’m more interested in what happens when things cool down.
Does real usage keep growing, or does the attention fade with the leverage?
#ZECPositionsDiverge The secret of the market trend is often hidden in the chip distribution. Understanding the chip vacuum zone allows you to catch a super major rally.
$NES perpetual contract 20x long, opened at 0.1524, rose to 0.1629, floating profit 137.79%.
$AKE perpetual 20x long position, opened at 0.02147, current price 0.0654, floating profit as high as 4094.08%.
Before opening the position, review the volume distribution chart. Around 0.02 is the lower edge of a historical high-volume trading area. After sufficient turnover here, the price gradually stabilizes.
When the price breaks above 0.02147 and moves up to the 0.06 range, there is almost no chip accumulation, officially entering the chip vacuum zone. So I lightly followed after breaking through the upper edge of the dense area, setting a stop loss at 0.019.
With 20x leverage, strictly control the position size to only 2%. The upward movement in the chip vacuum zone faces almost no selling pressure, the main force's resistance to the rally is minimal, making it easy to trigger short covering and accelerate the market takeoff.
Currently, the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 0.058, firmly locking in most of the profits. Reading the chip structure is also reading the rhythm of the market movement. $ZEC $BTC #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% $LINK perpetual 50x long position, opened at 11.634, currently at 12.016, floating profit +164.17%.
Long logic: Chainlink is shifting from a DeFi oracle to traditional core financial infrastructure. In September 2026, Bottomline launches Global Pay Connect (connecting 600+ banks); Wyoming stablecoin FRNT integrates PoR and CCIP; Charles Schwab announces listing of LINK; Grayscale/Bitwise spot LINK ETFs continue net inflows. Meanwhile, strategic reserves keep repurchasing (about 480,000 tokens accumulated over 30 days), Q2 tokenomics transformation (canceling Build rewards, shifting to LINK commercial payments). Going long at 11.634 (key support zone) with 50x very light position.
Trailing stop moved to 11.80 breakeven. Break above 12.20 targets 13.25-15.00.
⚠️ Risks: competing oracles (Pyth/API3) capturing market share; unlocking sell pressure aftermath; LINK historically lags in upward moves. 50x leverage is high risk, +164% floating profit, immediately move stop loss to protect capital or take profit. $ZEC $AKE On the gainer leaderboard, SOL is still hovering around 112. The real debate is about the channel. From what I see on public data like Farside, the US spot Solana ETF has seen net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, totaling about $1.42 billion, with assets under management of about $1.62 billion. From September 14 to 18, it saw another net inflow of about $60.7 million, but in the same week, spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of about $140.6 million. The Bitcoin channel was almost flat, with only about $6.1 million net inflows left. The idea of money being diverted is written quite directly. Let me break 😂 it down into several layers: 1. Market: After the price debate, the channel is still absorbing. SOL's price has been around 112 these days, calmer than the short-term run the previous day, but the product side hasn't stopped. BSOL absorbed about $47.6 million in Friday alone, absorbing over 80% of the week's net inflows in Solana-like ETFs. A pullback at current prices doesn't mean institutional channels are closing at the same time. Why it's hot: 12-week consecutive gains are rarer than single-day bullish candles. What really tightens the narrative is continuity. In public discussions, Solana spot packages have seen net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, totaling about 1.42 billion, with assets under management about 1.62 billion, accounting for about 2.1% of SOL's market cap. This week was about 60.7 million. BSOL alone contributed about 58.7 million, and on Friday, about 47.6 million almost all entered BSOL. Now, everyone is more concerned about one thing: is this staking products accruing long-term allocations, or just the tail end of Friday's risk appetite recovery? 3. Control layer: Ether is spitting out a big cakeOn September 20, long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff posted that Bitcoin surged significantly after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced news related to tokenized stocks, but this movement is meaningless. In fact, this news is bearish for Bitcoin because Bitcoin now has to compete with tokenized securities.
Tokens backed by profitable companies that can pay dividends have a digital ownership advantage over tokens without any asset backing and can serve as a more reliable store of value. Tokenized stocks have all the conveniences of Bitcoin while not carrying the risk of a decentralized Ponzi scheme collapse.
$BTC Dukascopy SEPA: Quoted price 2.3 ≠ definitely no additional 7.5
SEPA withdrawal quoted price is 2.3 euros, which does not mean the final bill stops at this line.
Dukascopy official price list: Euro SEPA withdrawal 2.3; the footnote clearly states that some financial institutions may add another 7.5. Before the funds reach recipients like Wise, check the actual deduction on the submission page, don’t just take the price list as the final price.
For deposits via bank transfer, the official note says Free, but rules may change and account types vary. Treat it as a backup channel; thinking it’s "always 2.3" will get you into trouble. 兄弟们，大饼这波是真的硬，硬得让人头皮发麻。
昨晚美联储加息，多少人等着看大饼跌破7万的笑话？结果呢？7.65万直接被拉回8.17万，5000刀的深V，空头连骨灰都没剩下。今天最高摸到81,800，24小时涨了1.48%，现在还在81,000上方横着。
为什么压不住？
因为就在加息的同一天，美国众议院金融服务委员会通过了「战略性比特币储备法案」。一边美联储收紧流动性，一边国家层面在喊“我要囤BTC”。你告诉我，散户和机构该信谁？
8.17万这个数字不是随便来的——它是BTC的365日移动平均线，CryptoQuant定义的牛熊分界线。历史上每次站稳这根线，后面都是大行情。昨天站上去之后，空头清算直接飙到1.37亿美元，全网爆仓2.49亿。
ETF那边也在配合。 贝莱德IBIT单周吸了6.92亿美元，机构根本没在怕的。Glassnode数据显示，非流动性供应量已经升到流通量的61%，创周期新高——币在往冷钱包里搬，不是往交易所里搬。
关键位置： 上方82,000-83,000是强阻力区，突破站稳的话，下一步就是85,000
$BTC #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 $BTC Interest Rate Hike Week, Bitcoin Breaks Through 80,000 — On September 19, Bitcoin was around $81,200, standing above 80,000 for two days, with a single-day increase of over 6%, marking the first daily close above 80,000 since September 7. Clearly, with interest rate hikes tightening liquidity and US Treasury yields breaking 5%, why did crypto assets surge instead?
Here's the conclusion:
1. After the "boot drop" of the rate hike, market risk appetite warmed up, and suppressed crypto buying concentratedly replenished.
2. Approximately $170 million to $240 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, creating a "short squeeze," forcing prices upward.
3. This is a "decoupling" market; Bitcoin and US stock and bond markets show rare divergence, but the resistance zone being hit four times indicates the trend is not yet established.
Data at this (timestamp):
1. On September 19, Bitcoin was about $81,200, up over 6% that day, standing above 80,000 for two days (closing at 80,875 on the 18th and 81,214 on the 19th), marking the first daily close above 80,000 since September 7 (Source: newslayer/interactivecrypto 9/19).
2. The catalyst came from the "short squeeze": about $170 million to $240 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated; combined with spot ETF net inflows of $590 million over two days, including a single-day net inflow of $433 million on the 18th (Source: interactivecrypto/AOL 9/19).
3. However, the $83,000 to $86,000 range is a dense resistance zone, with prices blocked four times; analysis suggests that if prices fall back below 80,000 within the month, it will be considered a squeeze peak rather than the start of a trend. 🔥Well-known trader 58bro.eth's BTC September range strategy analysis📊
He set up two positions as a portfolio hedge approach, not simply bearish:
Bet: BTC in September will not fall below 70,000, will not rise above 95,000, and definitely won't reach 100,000
◦ Simply put: betting that for the rest of September, BTC will oscillate between 70,000 and 95,000
◦ Invested capital is very small, totaling about 57,000 USD, a low-cost range bet aiming to earn odds rather than heavy directional bets
◦ Market implied probability is over 95%, indicating the mainstream market also believes the probability of breaking the upper or lower boundary is very low; his approach is to earn small odds on these high-probability events, with all 19 predictions in July-August historically profitable.
◦ BTC short position increased from 88.75 to 105.25 coins, with BTC+ETH combined short positions totaling about 26.137 million USD
◦ Key point here: this is not a completely neutral range hedge, overall slightly bearish
◦ Historical performance: this address has accumulated profits of 33.7 million USD on Hyperliquid, with a historical win rate of 90%, holding periods around 23 days, favoring monthly swing trades.
This trader's judgment: BTC in September is very likely to oscillate between 70,000 and 95,000, with upward breakout being more difficult, so on one hand, he places low-cost bets that the range won't be broken, and on the other hand, he sets up large short positions on contracts to bet on a rise and fall. But this is only a personal trading strategy; the market can break the range at any time, and there is considerable risk.ZEC touched nearly 1600 then fell back to 1450, the hype remains, but the price has backed off first.
Here's what I see: The intraday high was around 1590, on OKX ZEC/USDT is now back around 1450, down about 5% for the day. The community discussion still shows it approaching 1600, with millions of views, indicating sentiment hasn't faded, but the price has retreated first.
Since mid-August around 470, it has been pulled up all the way; the short-term gains were too sharp, so a pullback was expected before entering.
My view: 1500 feels more like an emotional threshold, not immediate solid support to use as a floor.
Privacy coins have a narrative, but chasing at the top is basically betting it won't correct.
If you want to participate, just hold a watch position; if it fails, be clear: a valid break below 1400 without recovery means this rally is over for now.
Are you waiting for it to firmly hold 1500 and rise again, or watching to see if 1400 can hold first?
$ZEC $BTC $ETH
#ZEC approaches $1600, bulls and bears intensify battle
#BTC returns to $80,000, capital conditions show recovery$BCH perpetual 50x short position, opened at 269.5, currently at 246.8, floating profit +421.15%.
BCH (Bitcoin Cash), as a veteran payment-oriented fork coin, is adopted in emerging markets like the Philippines (e.g., listed on PDAX), but its ecosystem innovation is weak heading into 2026, lacking narratives such as smart contracts/DeFi/RWA, resulting in weaker value capture compared to BTC. Shorting logic: September's macro interest rate hike expectations (83%) suppress risk assets, and BCH, as a high-beta altcoin, is under pressure; recently, momentum faded after surging to 269.5. Short at 269.5 (high resistance zone) following the trend, stop loss at 280, very light position with 50x leverage.
Trailing stop moved to breakeven at 255. Breaking 240 targets 230-235 (previous support).
⚠️ Risk: BCH has good liquidity; if BTC strengthens or catalysts like PayPal/Amazon payment adoption occur, it could surge violently. 50x leverage is highly risky. $AKE $FIL ETH surged to 2672 but didn't break through; after this spike, it went straight down.
Yesterday's low was 2578.16, the high touched 2663.3 but didn't break through, closing at 2640.03. Today opened at 2640.03, the high was 2672.54, the low 2563, and the current price is about 2577. Volume has shrunk.
2672 remains resistance above. If 2563 below breaks again, it will likely first revisit 2578, then only sharply continue downward.
In the short term, watch if 2577 can hold. If it doesn't hold, consider the spike a failure and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 2563 support holds; if it doesn't, consider reducing positions. $ETH Aave V4 officially launched on the mainnet today, and its significance goes beyond "just another lending protocol update."
V4 modularizes and customizes lending, effectively bringing the underlying structure of the traditional unified credit market onto the blockchain—meaning institutions can directly build their own lending markets by assembling the Aave framework.
For DeFi, this marks a step from "usable" to "financial infrastructure."
Lending is the most stable and essential sector in crypto, and Aave's continued deepening of its moat is a solid benefit for the ETH ecosystem and the on-chain interest rate market.SPCX made a quick spike to 156.5 today, and no one dared to follow the wave up to 161.7.
Yesterday, the low was around 150, the high touched 156, and it closed at 152.7. Today on OKEx, the highest was 156.5 but it didn't break through, the lowest was 150.0, and the current price is about 152.5. Volume is still there, but fewer people are following the upward move this time.
There is still resistance between 156.5 and 161.7, and the space above hasn't opened yet. If it breaks below 150.0, it’s likely to first see 147.5; if that level can't hold either, the short term will look for even lower levels.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold at 152.5. If it can't hold, consider it as still digesting the drop from 161.7, and don't chase the price now. For those already holding, watch if the low of 150.0 today can hold; if not, reduce some positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and consider only if it breaks above 156.5; don't catch a falling knife in midair. $SPCX SOL current price is 108.6, down 2.7% in 24 hours.
This pullback is not unexpected. A couple of days ago, SOL just surged to 111.78, hitting a new high since January. ETF and staking funds have been flowing in continuously. But the short-term rise was too rapid, the upper Bollinger Band was stretched, and the stochastic indicator hit the overbought zone, so technically a retracement was needed. My personal view is that this looks more like a "breather" rather than a "trend reversal."
Regarding bottom support, the EMA50 is around 103-104. Further down, 96 is a strong line; if broken, the bullish structure would be truly damaged. Looking upward, whether 110.59 can hold a daily close above is key. If it holds, there is a chance to test 115 or even 119.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 Last month, I made a decent profit on PROM, taking a light position and gaining 25%, but unfortunately, I wasn't bold enough and took profits early, missing out on the main rally that followed. Looking back at the market, I was kicking myself. Recently, the project launched a mining activity leveraging ZK Layer 2 and the blockchain gaming hype. On the surface, it looks very positive, but essentially it's still a capital-driven pump and dump. The trading volume these days is heavily inflated; volume spikes clearly during the rally phase, but shrinks instantly on pullbacks. Most of the trades are wash trades within the market, with very little real incremental capital entering. I checked on-chain data and found no institutional capital deployment; the tokens are concentrated in early private sale wallets, with whales holding at very low cost and ready to distribute after price spikes. Project information disclosure is vague, unlocking details are not publicly shared, and the amount of staked tokens is very low. Most tokens are sitting on exchanges waiting to be sold. Recently, I've seen several large whale wallets withdrawing tokens to exchanges, which is a clear signal of selling. In the next two to three days, it will likely continue to spike higher to lure in retail investors who missed out, then quickly drop back. This is only suitable for very short-term trading; do not hold positions for long. I’m watching the capital flow behind the move. Bitcoin ETFs finished last week with only $6.2M net inflows, despite a strong $433M inflow on Friday. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs ended the week with $140M in outflows. So the real question is: Is the market genuinely accumulating, or are we just seeing short-term positioning drive the price? Price gives us the headline. Capital flow gives us the story. What are you watching right now? #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #CryptoA few days ago, I was hoping Google would rise to 350, and now I'm hoping it breaks below 350. Changing positions, the same number shows two different moods 😅 Opened a short at 355.03, screenshot taken at 350.18, this contract has an unrealized profit of +68.30%, still not closed, target 330.
This time shorting, I'm more concerned about the bill behind AI growth. In the Q2 report, Google's capital expenditure for the quarter was about $44.9 billion, exceeding the operating cash flow of about $39.1 billion. It's not that the company is out of money, but the net cash generated from operations this quarter is not enough to cover this investment. This pressure has been public for a long time; it's not that some bad news suddenly came out today.
I'm more wary of an algorithm: when looking at revenue, treating it as a high-growth AI company; when calculating investment, assuming it's still a business that can expand without spending much money. Picking the best-looking parts from both sides makes the price easy to be too generous. My short position judgment is based on suspicion that the market is too optimistic about subsequent investment returns, not that Google's products suddenly lost users.
Of course, the 82% year-over-year growth in cloud business in Q2 is real, and these investments may lead to bigger business. So this bet is on expected pullback, not waiting for Google to "have a big problem," and certainly not concluding 355 is the top based on an old financial report.
Next, I will watch around 350: if it can fall below and the rebound can't recover, I will be more patient waiting for 330; if it quickly pulls back near 355, I will consider closing the short position first, so as not to lose the small unrealized profit I just gained by holding on stubbornly.$ETH $BTC $ZEC This wave finally stopped moving sideways
The answer chosen is downward
Current price is around 80,500, with the intraday high still at 81,953
But the low has refreshed to 80,133, with a 24-hour decline expanding to 1.4%
Looking at the 1-hour K-line, the price has already broken below all previously converged short-term moving averages, MA5 and MA10 have directly turned downward, and the previous 81,200 support zone has now become a resistance band above.
Interestingly, the volume
During this decline, the trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating it currently looks more like bulls loosening and actively retreating, rather than panic-driven concentrated selling
The 80,800 level below has already been lost, now the key focus is on the 80,000 whole number level and the support around the MA60 below (approximately 79,965)
The previously set "watch for support after loss" is now exactly applicable. Since the signal has been given, there is no need to keep debating the direction
Next, it depends on whether this level can hold steady or if it will continue downward to find support
#BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% #ZEC高位震荡，多空仓位开始分化 Privacy is not a fringe issue in the crypto space; it is the baseline of freedom.
When governments and corporations can penetrate your financial and identity data at will, so-called "self-sovereignty" becomes meaningless.
When your records move onto the blockchain and the cloud, privacy ironically becomes the rarest and most easily overlooked asset.
To preserve the core of crypto "personal sovereignty," privacy must be built as infrastructure.
What do you think? $ZEC$BTC $ETH $ZEC biggest feeling today: a real bull market is not about having 100x coins every day, but about continuous rotation of capital.
BTC holds steady, ETH starts attracting funds, and ecosystem coins like SOL, SUI, OKB perform in turn. Many people chase the rise, ending up buying at the peak of emotions; then cut losses during pullbacks, giving back all profits.
I am now more focused on three signals: whether volume has expanded, whether funds have continuously flowed in, and whether pullbacks have been supported. No matter how hot the market is, without discipline you won’t make the final profit.
Those who make big money in a bull market don’t necessarily buy the coins with the biggest gains, but hold the right positions.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #OKB
@OKX中文 @吴说区块链 @Ai姨 @CryptoPanda @何币 #美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 The distress beacon has been emitting a sharp beep, and I am slumped among the ash-covered rubble, helplessly watching the fireproof rolling door slam shut completely.
Sorry to all the squad leaders and team commanders, I didn’t heed the on-site command to retreat. In this completely out-of-control, sealed space of $BCH fire, I blindly chased glory, holding a 10x high leverage reverse hard top, only to be hit by a sudden explosive V-reversal. A large bullish candlestick pierced right through my air respirator mask. The residual pressure dropped to zero, the air tank was empty, the hazmat suit was burned through, my position instantly turned to ashes, and even my underwear was lost.
Now I kneel in the ruins, trembling all over. Having experienced a collapse of this magnitude, I am left with nothing but extreme despair and emptiness. The fire safety lessons repeated a thousand times: always leave yourself a safety route with a glow guide rope; survival is always more important than rescue. But I foolishly took a chance in the thickest smoke, removed the water gun position and held on, only to be engulfed by the heat wave on the spot, leaving no remains.
Wiping the smoke ash off my mask to take a look at the remaining embers, this scorched earth is actually approaching the hard refractory bricks of the Bollinger Bands lower band at the current price level. The oversold fire at the low position is weakening, and the oxygen content in the air may trigger a secondary rebound.
- Target: $BCH 🟢
- Entry: 245.0 - 248.5
- TP1: 258.0
- TP2: 265.0
- SL: 239.0
The guide rope has broken, and there was no third warning before the collapse. 🧑🚒
#StrategyPlaybookThe bill's failure directly shattered the fantasy of regulatory backstops. Bitcoin fell below 76,000, Ethereum lost the 2,400 mark, and 120,000 people were liquidated for 670 million. When liquidity recedes, funds simply won't come to prop things up.
The CAP chart is even simpler: a death cross heading down, clear moving average resistance, and the bulls are already pinned down. The liquidation chart shows a large accumulation of long stop losses around 0.044 to 0.045; the current price at 0.04594 is very close. Breaking below this cluster of stop losses is the lowest cost direction.
I just sent an order to the sixth floor, caught my breath, and glanced at my phone. Thinking about bottom-fishing this structure is just fueling the main players.
Operationally, wait for a rebound between 0.0463 and 0.0468 to short in batches, set stop loss above 0.0482, first take profit at 0.0442, and if broken, target 0.0433.
Don't go all in, don't get emotional. What I want is to recover, not to get liquidated again.
$CAP
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
@OKX星球 $PENGU perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.00965, currently 0.00772, floating profit +1000.00%.
PENGU is a meme coin in the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem. Although it is backed by a leading NFT IP (already on Solana/multi-chain) and the Abstract Chain ecosystem, it lacks fundamental support and has weak value capture. The macro interest rate hike expectation in September (83%) suppresses risk assets, with meme sectors hit first. The short logic is clear: follow up at resistance 0.00965, stop loss at 0.0105, 50x leverage with very light position.
Trailing stop loss moved to 0.0085 breakeven. Breaking 0.0075 targets 0.0070/0.0065.
⚠️ Risk: PENGU is extremely volatile, NFT/meme sentiment can reverse very quickly, and Abstract Chain ecosystem catalysts can cause violent spikes. 50x leverage means about 2% adverse move triggers liquidation. With +1000% floating profit, take profit immediately or move stop loss to protect capital, absolutely no overnight holding. $ZEC $AKE #ZEC high-level oscillation, long and short positions begin to diverge. Folks, after ZEC surged to $1600, it started to consolidate at a high level. The current game has completely turned into a meat grinder among large funds; retail investors should just watch from the sidelines and not join the fray.
Looking at the data makes it clear that long and short positions are diverging sharply. Addresses related to Garrett Jin hold about 38,000 ZEC short positions, with unrealized losses exceeding $33 million. But at the same time, he holds 202,000 ZEC spot, worth roughly $320 million. This shows that his short positions are not naked shorts for gambling but are hedged with spot holdings to lock in profits.
The real net shorts are in trouble. One whale closed $24.43 million worth of ZEC shorts, taking a direct realized loss of $10.68 million. Meanwhile, another trader who opened a position at $517.68 with 9,810 ZEC now has unrealized gains close to $10 million.
This data reveals two key signals. First, shorts have been crushed by this short squeeze, with many forced to liquidate or admit defeat; their ammunition is basically exhausted. Second, early longs have made substantial profits—those who entered at $517 and now at $1600. Once this batch of profitable positions starts to take profits en masse, it will inevitably trigger a sharp pullback. The big whales hedging also sense the high-level risk.
At present, the short squeeze has nearly depleted the momentum of the longs. What everyone should watch next is not how much further it can rise, but whether the profitable longs will start a stampede of profit-taking. $ZEC $BTC $ETH Saudi Aramco notifies European buyers: No oil deliveries in October, oil prices surge in the dark market
A hard news broke on Saturday, likely to ferment at Monday's opening
Insiders reveal that Saudi Aramco has officially notified at least two long-term European refiners
They will suspend crude allocations to them in October, applicable to all European buyers
Some late September cargo shipments have been canceled, and some orders postponed to November
The reason is a drone attack on the key oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea
The east-west pipeline is shut down, and loading at the Red Sea Yanbu port was once suspended
This is not just a verbal production cut, but a real physical supply disruption
The market reaction is very direct
Brent surged above $99 at one point, WTI near-expiry contracts hovered around $100
The crude price spread from the North Sea to the Mediterranean soared to record levels
The significance of this event is
Just a few days ago, the market had breathed a sigh of relief as "oil prices fell back from over $100," and the inflation narrative had just cooled down
This Saudi move is like putting inflation anxiety back on the table
Next week, oil & gas and defense sectors may become volatile, and growth stocks will face the shadow of "higher rates for longer"
Keep a close eye on Monday's Asian session oil price gap direction, don't get carried away over the weekend and forget your positions 80,000 USD Holds Steady: Bitcoin Remains Above 81,000 Over the Weekend, 120,000 Liquidations in 24 Hours
Friday's big bullish candle wasn't a one-day wonder; it stayed sideways at a high level over the weekend
Early Saturday BTC reported around 81,334 USD, basically flat
Saturday night rose again, reported around 81,254 USD, up over 4%
Ethereum rose about 5%, around 2,635 USD, SOL also strengthened in sync
Nearly 120,000 liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, longs and shorts getting cut back and forth
Support logic hasn't changed, and positions were even added over the weekend
SEC greenlights tokenized stock trading on-chain, regulation continues to ease
Spot Bitcoin ETFs see continuous net inflows, institutional buying returns
Combined with geopolitical turmoil affecting oil prices, the "digital gold" safe-haven narrative is brought back up
But to be calm
80,000–81,500 is a historically heavy resistance zone, with sell orders waiting to break even above
Weekend liquidity is thin, so prices can be easily pulled up by small amounts of capital to look good
The real test will be after the US stock market opens Monday, whether ETF funds still recognize it
Those chasing highs over the weekend and shorts liquidated on Friday are often the same group $WLD perpetual 50x long position, opened at 0.4, currently at 0.4295, floating profit +368.74%.
WLD is designated as the AI identity (World ID) and the core asset of the RWA super app. On September 17, World Money launched its self-custody super app in 150 countries worldwide (integrating Stripe/Apple Pay/Morpho), combined with Kalshi launching WLD futures contracts, bringing strong adoption catalysts. Although the daily unlock rate was reduced by 43% on July 24 (to about 2.9 million tokens/day), on September 24 (in 4 days) there will be a large monthly unlock pressure of about 100 million tokens (1% of total supply), along with global biometric regulatory pressure. Going long at 0.4 (key psychological support) with 50x leverage, very light position.
Trailing stop loss moved to breakeven at 0.41. A breakout above 0.442 targets 0.45-0.50.
⚠️ Risks: Large unlock on September 24 imminent; regulatory suppression. 50x leverage is highly risky, +368% floating profit is extremely high, take profit immediately or move stop loss to protect capital. $ZEC $AKE Jensen Huang is reducing holdings with tax withholding while loosening up on a hundred-billion investment in OpenAI, and now there are rumors that a $20 billion version is close to being finalized.
This weekend, the relationship between Nvidia and OpenAI looks more and more like a romantic dispute.
First, a small fact:
SEC filings show that on September 16, five executives including Jensen Huang transferred about 160,000 shares in total, most of which were tax withholdings upon RSU vesting.
This is passive tax withholding, not active dumping, so don't be misled by clickbait headlines.
The main drama is about the investment figures; currently, there are three conflicting versions:
Version one (Jensen Huang's statement in Taiwan): The $100 billion investment plan is paused; that was only an "invitation," not a commitment.
Version two (Cryptopolitan citing insiders): Nvidia is close to finalizing a $20 billion investment into OpenAI's new financing round, which could reach up to $100 billion, but no signature yet.
Version three: The relationship remains unchanged; only the amount and timing are being renegotiated.
All three versions come from media sources; there is no official announcement.
My understanding: What Jensen really wants to say is — "I make enough money selling cards; I don't want to be your ATM."
But if the $20 billion deal goes through, it means the tie remains, just changing from "joining the cult" to "taking equity."
Wait for the official announcement; treat all rumors as such, and don't use any figure as a valuation anchor. Anthropic's IPO date is disputed between October or November by two media outlets, while OpenAI is reported to be preparing a new round with a valuation exceeding 1.2 trillion
Over the weekend, reviewing the AI circle's financing calendar revealed the information itself is quite surreal
Anthropic's IPO timing has two authoritative media giving different answers
The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily says it has been postponed to November, while 36Kr over the weekend cited sources saying Nasdaq has been chosen with a target listing in October
Valuation rumors are even more exaggerated, reaching the 2 trillion dollar level
Such conflicting information is safest to treat as "in preparation, date undecided"
On OpenAI's side
It is reported to be considering a new round of financing with a valuation possibly exceeding 1.2 trillion dollars
CEO Brockman also discussed the safety framework over the weekend
He said after Hugging Face was hacked, OpenAI has slowed down model training frequency and redone internal security processes
Domestically, Zhizhu publicly apologized regarding related controversies
On one hand, valuations are rocketing up, on the other hand, safety incidents and braking coexist
This is the absurd daily reality of the AI industry in 2026: stories told in the sky, security patches applied on the ground
The boundary between bubble and boom is becoming increasingly blurred What I really think CORE needs right now is not a few more slogans.
What it needs is more people actually using it.
DEX has trading.
Lending has borrowers.
BTCFi has participants.
There is real capital flow on-chain.
Developers are willing to keep deploying.
If these things gradually pick up, CORE's value will naturally be reconsidered by people.
So now, even if I shout every day for CORE to take off, I really can't shout it out.
What I want to see more is whether it can actually retain users. $CORE On Sunday night, I reviewed the key levels of BTC, ETH, and SOL again, this time only recognizing the closing price, ignoring all wicks.
$BTC is now at 81000. If the 80,000 line can't hold, the next support is 76000, with basically no buffer in between; only if it closes above 82600 can the bulls catch a breath.
$ETH is at 2570. It needs to reclaim 2600 first; if it can't, it will head to 2450. Also, don't chase longs around 2670—I got burned there last time, it plunged right after a spike.
$SOL is at 108. First, see if it can hold 110; only if it holds can it reach 115; if it doesn't hold, 100 is waiting. The order can't be messed up.
This week I got fooled too many times by intraday spikes; the stop losses were just hit and then the price pulled back, so this time I only look at Monday's closing candle.
#BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21%
#ZEC高位震荡，多空仓位开始分化 Unusual Movement Snapshot
$ONE surged explosively today, up +79.99% in 24 hours, with a volatility amplitude reaching 113.44 percentage points, skyrocketing directly.
Current price is $0.004192, with a trading volume of 2.21M USD, volume at least doubled year-over-year, indicating significant capital inflow.
The 24-hour high is $0.004880, the low is $0.002238, creating an operational space with a spread of 113.4 points between high and low.
Belongs to the public chain/L1 sector. This round of surge is not an isolated coin event; at least 3 coins in the same track moved simultaneously, showing clear sector linkage effects.
First layer logic - capital: short-term funds scramble to push prices up; second layer logic - smart money locks positions leveraging narratives; third layer - retail investors FOMO chasing the rally in relay.
Risk point: after continuous rise, profit-taking space is at least 159 percentage points, chasing at high levels risks becoming a bag holder.
Judgment: Do not chase unusual movements; wait for selling pressure to release and observe the structure. If the structure breaks, do not stubbornly hold on.
Data comes from public market interfaces, for informational reference only, not constituting buy or sell advice.
Having said that, the decision is in your hands. #BTC holds at $80,000, crypto market recovery spreads #Fed's probability of another rate hike in October exceeds 55% …
The latest developments show that the market's expectation of the Fed tightening again before the end of the year has risen from a marginal topic to a 55% probability range.
Those who have truly experienced several cycles know well that what the crypto world fears most is never the bad news itself, but the ambiguous period when "expectations have just shifted." When bad news is confirmed, it is easier to see a wave of recovery; but when rumors just start and logic is not yet unified, the market usually dips first as a sign of respect, and smart money never gives advance notice.
The last rate hike was a predetermined action in market consensus, and prices had already priced it in early, so after it landed, the market was actually lighter.
This time is different—it is a sudden expectation adjustment, with huge divergence between bulls and bears, more complex dimensions of game theory, and potential damage far exceeding the previous time.
If there really is another tightening by the end of the year:
Liquidity will continue to be drained, and the high interest rate environment will exert sustained pressure on risk assets.
Mainstream assets like $BTC, $ETH, $OKB are very likely to enter a high volatility range, with pullbacks possibly exceeding the psychological thresholds of most people.
From a cycle perspective, the fourth quarter just happens to be a sensitive window for bottom formation; with macro pressure and cycle rules overlapping, no one can give a definite answer on whether it will dig out a golden pit or open a downward channel.
Of course, tightening may not actually happen; we are still in an observation period.
My response strategy: do not bet on a one-sided move, just adjust the structure. Actively reduce positions before the end of the month, rather than passively reacting after the news lands on $BTC, $ETH, $ZEC Arthur Hayes just called for ENA to reach $0.5.
ENA instantly surged 24%, hitting 0.21.
Your first reaction is—"The big shot called it, should I jump in?"
Hold on. After reading these 5 truths, you can decide.
📌 ① He built his position at 0.09, you chased at 0.21
On-chain data doesn’t lie.
Hayes bought 25.33 million ENA one month ago at an average price of $0.09, spending $5.53 million. Now this batch of chips has an unrealized profit of $3.28 million, a 146% return.
You chased in at 0.21, your cost is 2.3 times his.
With the same target price of 0.5, he earns 455%, you earn 138%.
He was three blocks ahead of you at the starting line. What you’re chasing isn’t the price, it’s his liquidity.
📌 ② Calling a trade ≠ buying, calling a trade might be selling
A hedge fund operator holding 25.33 million low-cost chips publicly bullish on social media.
Guess what he needs most?
Not faith. It’s someone to take the bags.
From 0.21 to 0.5, there’s a $0.29 rally space—enough for him to sell in batches at any stage. For a whale with 146% unrealized gains, dumping at the peak of excitement is the standard hedge fund play.
You can listen to calls, but you must watch the address. Whether his wallet moves is ten thousand times more important than what he says.
📌 ③ 95% revenue buyback is real, but the engine hasn’t started
Ethena has created the most aggressive value capture mechanism ever: 95% of protocol net revenue is used to buy back ENA.
Sounds great, right?
But there’s a prerequisite—the USDe circulating supply must reach $7.5 billion for this buyback machine to start.
What’s the current USDe circulating supply? About $4 to $4.6 billion.
Almost half way from ignition.
In other words, this “bullish” is an expected bullish, not a happening bullish. Without USDe doubling, the buyback is just a pie painted on the wall.
📌 ④ October 5th, a 3 billion ENA time bomb
This is the most painful point.
StablecoinX holds about 3.029 billion ENA, accounting for 20% of total ENA supply. The lock-up period for this batch will be permanently lifted on October 5, 2026.
3 billion ENA, what does that mean? Nearly one-fifth of the current circulating supply.
From now until October 5, only 15 days left.
Some say "sales require written consent from the foundation"—true, no immediate dump in the short term. But unlocking itself is a sword hanging overhead. Compliance constraints can control legal actions, but not market expectations. Every ENA holder knows about these 3 billion tokens, and this expectation pressure itself suppresses the price.
The good news is, after October 5, ENA will completely say goodbye to long-term monthly unlock bleeding. The real supply vacuum period will be mid-October.
But the question is—can you hold on until then?
📌 ⑤ But the fundamentals are indeed changing, and that’s the most dangerous part
Honestly, Ethena’s current narrative isn’t just hot air.
95% net revenue buyback turns ENA from an “air governance token” into a real cash flow asset. The governance proposal passed unanimously with 14.1 million votes in favor, 0 against. Large holders and market makers have already aligned interests on the fee switch.
If USDe scale breaks $7.5 billion and funding rates remain positive, ENA’s pricing logic will shift from “sentiment multiples” to “discounted cash flow.”
That’s the most dangerous part.
A story supported by fundamentals is precisely the hardest to falsify. You think you’re studying value, but you might just be providing liquidity for a whale’s exit window.
👉 The conclusion in one sentence:
You can listen to calls, but you must watch the address. Before October 5, every bullish candle deserves an extra question—who’s buying, who’s selling?
$BTC $ETH $ENA Keep a close eye on ETH at 2564; the real battle between bulls and bears isn't at 2600.
Bullish side: The US spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $29.4 million on Friday, with Fidelity's FETH buying $26.2 million. After continuous outflows, funds have finally started to buy back chips. If ETH holds 2564 and recovers 2600, short-term selling pressure has a chance to be absorbed; only a break above 2669 would signal a return to an upward attack structure.
The bearish side is more direct: This week, ETH ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $255 million, while BTC ETFs still saw a slight net inflow during the same period. The ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped about 1.3% in 24 hours, indicating institutions prioritize buying BTC when returning. OKX currently has about $1.61 billion in ETH perpetual positions, with a funding rate of +0.0084%. Despite weakening prices, bulls haven't fully withdrawn; once 2564 is lost, leveraged stop losses will amplify the decline.
My judgment: The mid-term logic remains intact, but there is no bottom-fishing value in the short term. Do not buy below 2600; if it breaks 2564, first watch 2500, then 2450 if weaker; only if it stabilizes above 2600 and breaks 2669 with volume will I acknowledge funds returning.
The most dangerous thing now is not missing the rebound, but mistaking a tentative ETF inflow as a full institutional return.
$ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Arthur Hayes shouted "ENA to 0.5" on X today, and within 5 minutes, buy orders flooded the secondary market, pushing ENA from 0.17 directly up to 0.21, a daily increase of over 24%.
But the most heartbreaking detail isn't the price surge.
On-chain tracking shows that he bought 25.33 million tokens a month ago at an average price of $0.09, now with an unrealized profit of $3.28 million, a 146% return.
When he made the call, he was already sitting in the sedan chair.
However, if you only interpret this as "a big player finding someone to take the bag," you're missing something far more valuable than $3.28 million.
This round of capital speculating on "old Deng coins" has changed the criteria for selection.
In the last cycle, any "XX public chain" or "XX metaverse" could pump the price. Now, capital only recognizes one type of target: those who can present real ledgers.
ENA is the most typical example in this wave.
Why was it selected? Three reasons.
First, it has real revenue. USDe and USDtb earn money through basis arbitrage and government bond yields, not by pie-in-the-sky promises. In the past month, USDe supply increased by about $600 million, while the entire stablecoin market only grew by 1.4% in the same period.
Second, the chip structure is being cut. At the end of August, the Ethena Foundation did something drastic—they used ecosystem reserves to directly buy out the locked shares of early seed investors off-market, taking away the VC chips that had been selling for the past 9 months. The monthly unlock schedule was completely halted, and all remaining investor tokens will be released in a lump sum on October 5, with no more investor lockups thereafter.
Third, a 95% net income buyback mechanism. The governance proposal passed with 14.1 million votes in favor and zero against. 95% of the protocol's earnings go directly to buying ENA on the secondary market.
The wall between "protocol making money" and "token being valuable" has been broken down.
But there is a driveshaft here that can break at any time.
Ethena's underlying revenue depends 92% on positive funding rates from perpetual contracts.
In plain language: as long as the market is bullish enough and longs are willing to pay shorts, Ethena makes money. Once the market turns bearish and funding rates stay negative, the protocol not only fails to earn basis but must use reserves to subsidize shorts.
Hindenrank's stress test calculated: if funding rates remain negative, Ethena's current reserve fund of about $62 million will be depleted in approximately 52 days.
This was rehearsed once in April 2026—USDe dropped from 14.9 billion to 3.9 billion in a week, funding rates fell from 19% to 3.6%, and reserves were nearly drained.
If the market is stable, it flies. If the market crashes, it crashes first.
There is another date you must watch: October 5.
On that day, all remaining investor tokens will unlock at once, flooding the market with about 1.41 billion ENA.
The buyback mechanism hasn't officially started yet; unlocking comes first.
A supply-side vacuum? That won't happen until mid-October. Before then, any violent price surge is just a ladder handed to early chips.
So what exactly is ENA?
It is not a "governance token." It is a leveraged note to go long on crypto market activity.
With real revenue, improved chip structure, and value capture—it's a dimension stronger than the pure pie-in-the-sky tokens of the last round.
But stronger by one dimension does not mean safe.
Don't trade ENA with a "narrative" framework. Trade it with a "leverage" framework.
$BTC $ZEC $ENA After trading $BTC for so many years, the market these past few days has been especially torturous. Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising slowly, but a bunch of altcoins are taking turns surging—typical stockpile of existing funds clustered for speculation. Last week, I made quite a bit of floating profit on several small-cap coins, but greed made me not take all profits, and as a result, the market kept spiking up and down, and I ended up losing more than half of the profits, which made me stay up late watching the market for two nights in a row. Now, without a full-blown bull market, funds are switching back and forth among various altcoins, with surges coming without warning and dumps not announced in advance. In the next two to three days, I expect the overall market to maintain wide-range oscillation, with Bitcoin repeatedly harvesting leverage. High-position altcoins may face a sharp correction at any time, while only a few low-position coins have catch-up potential. Chasing highs is a big taboo—this is a lesson I've learned from countless losses. Never rush in impulsively just because you see prices rising. Stop blindly holding BTC ETH SOL regardless of time periods! Different market sessions have completely different capital strategies.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
US session 20:00-04:00: Institutional main stage, all major moves happen here. BTC reacts first to macro news; ETH’s price swings are stronger than BTC’s; SOL is the most volatile, surging sharply on good news and crashing hard on bad news.
European session 14:00-20:00: Transitional session, low volatility, mostly sideways testing, rarely producing independent trends.
Asian session 04:00-14:00: Retail session, low liquidity, mainly digesting US session moves. BTC consolidates or slowly takes profits; ETH follows BTC with small fluctuations; SOL is prone to fake spikes, stop losses get triggered quickly, so avoid opening new positions.
Simply remember: on the upside SOL > ETH > BTC; on the downside SOL > ETH > BTC. Currently, the Asian session is the profit-taking phase after the US session’s rally, so never heavily bet on a reversal.
For experience sharing only, not trading advice
$BTC $ETH $SOL The oracle didn't die because hackers broke through — Switchboard directly announced shutdown, giving dependents about a week to relocate.
According to the official Switchboard Foundation Group and ChainCatcher/BlockBeats: decentralized oracle Switchboard is officially shutting down, with all support ending on September 25, 2026; existing implementations are deprecated immediately. The core developer Switchboard Technology Labs Inc. decided to close after exhausting alternatives. Official reasons include: AI lowering the threshold for building oracles independently, the bear market compressing new chain budgets, and protocol direct data collaborations with Hyperliquid, S&P, etc., weakening the value of third-party oracles. They also mentioned recent security vulnerabilities and contributor/node withdrawals. Dependents must migrate immediately, with official recommendations naming Pyth or RedStone; migration guidance will still be provided during the last week. Clarifications: shutdown ≠ immediate liquidation; naming Pyth ≠ migration completed or share locked; the approximately $7.5 million Series A reported in 2024 ≠ a lifeline.
OKX spot PYTH is about $0.0587, 24-hour open about $0.0604, down about 2.7%. $BTC $BTC has climbed back above 80,000. Honestly, this level has been awaited for several days.
The market was lifeless with low trading volume recently, but last night there was a sudden surge, with liquidation data flashing across the screen—a long-awaited short squeeze.
But don’t get carried away; let’s break down the essence of this move.
Market aspect: This rally is mainly driven by short squeezes.
In the past hour, about $192 million in leveraged liquidations occurred, with $183 million from shorts, and BTC accounting for $119 million. Simply put, this surge was fueled by a large number of shorts covering their positions.
Glassnode data shows a large cluster of short liquidations between 83,000–86,000. Short positions have been building for weeks, and once the price hits this range, short covering accelerates the rally.
Two key resistance levels above:
① 83,000-85,000, a dense short position zone;
② 85,000-86,000, spot ETF holding cost zone, representing strong selling pressure.
Support below:
78,000 is the short-term lifeline; if broken, long stop-loss orders will flood out; deeper support at 76,700, with CoinGlass heatmap showing dense liquidation clusters between 75,000–77,000.
News aspect: ETF funds are flowing back, but regulatory battles remain.
The rebound is not a random surge. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $433 million on Friday, led by Fidelity. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT has had 20 consecutive days of net inflows, with institutions steadily accumulating at low levels.
#BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 $ENA Conclusion first: This +11.45% rally is temporarily just an oversold rebound, not a trend reversal, with the risk of chasing higher outweighing the opportunity.
To judge whether the trend is healthy using moving averages, only two points need to be considered: the relative position of price to the moving averages, and whether the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term moving average. Currently, MA5=0.19608 is still below MA20=0.20051, with the moving averages in a bearish alignment, indicating that the mid-term cost is still suppressing the price and the rebound has not yet repaired the structure. RSI=51.3 is in the neutral zone, neither overbought nor showing divergence, indicating weak bullish momentum; the MACD histogram is -0.002163, still below the zero line, and the rebound lacks volume confirmation. The upper Bollinger Band at 0.210674 is recent resistance, and the lower band at 0.190346 is short-term support.
More caution is needed as the funding rate has turned positive at +0.0050%, combined with the Fear and Greed Index at 71 in the greed zone, indicating bullish sentiment has been ignited. Such a position is often the tail end of a rebound rather than the start. The amplitude of the last 30 candlesticks is about 26.74%, showing high volatility, so positions must be lightened.
Operationally bearish: Short in batches when the rebound reaches 0.2000–0.2030 (near MA20 and the middle Bollinger Band), take profit 1 at 0.1905 (lower Bollinger Band), take profit 2 at 0.1830 (extension of previous low), stop loss at 0.2110 (above the upper Bollinger Band; if broken, the bearish logic fails).What happened today.
Arthur Hayes called a buy on ENA, target price $0.5. As soon as the news broke, ENA surged from $0.17 to $0.21, rising over 24% in 24 hours.
The whole network is buzzing.
"Hayes is on board, follow!"
"95% revenue buyback, value capture unlocked, let's go!"
"Monthly unlock canceled, selling pressure gone, take off!"
Hold on.
Before you hit the buy button, spend three minutes reviewing the following numbers.
Let's start with the good news.
The Ethena Foundation indeed did something big: they bought out most of the early seed investors' locked shares via OTC, terminating the monthly unlock plan originally scheduled to last until March 2028.
For the past nine months, those seed round investors have been selling. The foundation directly bought out their chips.
At the same time, the 95% net revenue buyback proposal was implemented. The protocol earns money → buys back ENA → burns or locks it. ENA is no longer an "air governance token" but is moving toward a "cash flow asset."
Annual fee income is about $150 million; at a 95% buyback rate, about $140 million is used to buy on the secondary market.
Sounds great, right?
But there is another side to the coin.
According to Tokenomist data, all remaining investor shares that did not participate in the buyout are forced to be released in a lump sum before October 5.
Amount: about 1.41 billion ENA.
Value: about $212 million.
Accounting for 14.3% of the current circulating supply.
Originally, these tokens were to unlock slowly over 17 months. Now, all compressed into one day.
17 months of slow bleeding turns into a major artery cut in one day.
This is not "reduced selling pressure." This is front-loaded selling pressure.
One crucial detail that most people missed—
According to Edgen's analysis, the buyback plan on October 5 "does not apply."
What does that mean?
The unlock day coincides with a buyback blackout period.
On the same day when 1.41 billion tokens are released in concentration, the price support mechanism is absent.
Tell me, who will catch them?
Look again at Hayes' timeline.
On-chain data clearly shows: about a month ago, Hayes bought 25.33 million ENA at an average price of $0.09.
Now ENA is $0.21, his unrealized profit is $3.28 million, a 146% return.
He built a position at $0.09 and called a buy at $0.21.
From $0.21 to $0.50 is a pie drawn for retail investors.
But for him, selling from $0.21 onward is all profit.
From today, September 20, to October 5, there is a 15-day window.
During these 15 days, the hype from Hayes' call, the follow-up buying frenzy, and his 25.33 million ENA unrealized gains create a natural window for selling.
He did this once in February—transferred 3.6 million ENA to FalconX.
Will history repeat? I won't guess.
But if large on-chain transfers appear, don't be surprised.
There is an even more fragile transmission shaft.
The Ethena 95% revenue buyback story fundamentally depends on contract funding rates.
Underlying income comes from bullish sentiment and positive basis in the derivatives market. Once the market turns bearish, perpetual contract funding rates turn negative continuously, the protocol not only stops making money but must use reserves to subsidize shorts.
Income goes to zero, buybacks go to zero, the flywheel reverses and stalls.
This buyback narrative is essentially built on the assumption that the market is always hot.
Will the market always be hot?
So, today's question is not "Is ENA worth buying?"
The question is—
From today until October 5, during these 15 days, is every ENA price increase truly pricing fundamentals, or paving the way for big holders to exit?
Hayes has 146% unrealized gains. Early investors have 1.41 billion tokens waiting to unlock. Buybacks do not apply on October 5.
Tell me, who is swimming naked?
Before October 5, every penny chasing ENA's rise deserves an extra question: whose tokens am I catching?
$BTC $ETH $ENA #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 Weekend afternoon trading, BTC is stuck at 80475, down 1.4% in 24 hours. Volume is very low, not many people are really taking action, yet the price is fluctuating quite vigorously.
On the news front, the aftereffects of the Fed's rate hikes are still brewing, market sentiment is weak, and attention is much lower than in previous days. But honestly, the 80,000 whole number level hasn't been truly broken these past two days; the short-term structure is still relatively intact. Personally, I don't think this is a trend reversal, more like a normal pullback after a rebound. I'm still watching the 79,800–80,500 range below; if it really falls, I'll look for support then, no rush to guess the bottom.
Weekend markets can be deceptive, keep your positions light, don't get carried away by a few candlesticks.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散