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$AKE A shocking big whale dumped the market The bottom surged nearly 1000 times It really did it! Brother Yang analyzed it in the last post The funding fee suddenly turned negative without reason And it was maxed out, settled every hour, which is very strange Because the funding fee wasn’t maxed out even with such a strong pump before Brother Yang speculated it might be a short order placed by a dog whale If so, then a dump might be coming This wave of bulls rushing in at high prices to earn funding fees Might get trapped at the peak, this is a stop-loss trap Brother Yang decisively opened a short, but the last wave was too strong Almost took me out, so I just took a quick lick and ran… This is not analysis, it's guessing. Guess right, earn 10%. Guess wrong, lose 20%. This gamble is not worth it. One last honest word. The crypto market in 2026 will not rely on “stories” to pump prices, but on “position structure.” AR has a story. Arweave has technology. But in front of a +0.0100% funding rate, none of that matters. What matters is: whoever has the densest short positions is the next one to be squeezed. This round it's AR. What about the next? Don’t grab the wreath at the funera$ONE has now risen for 4 straight days, which is surprising given Harmony’s recent shutdown news. The chain is being retired and ONE is moving to Ethereum, while the AI-video narrative adds another layer of speculation. If you hold ONE, the snapshot/airdrop means assets aren’t simply disappearing. But uncertainty remains high, so avoid chasing the pump or overexposing yourself. Shorts can fuel volatility too. DYOR. 👀 $ONE #Harmony #CryptoJust sold 100% of my spot $ZEC around $1,520. That doesn’t mean I think the $ZEC run is finished. Far from it. Zcash has become one of the strongest privacy narratives in crypto, with the NU7 upgrade vote, faster 25-second blocks, ETF exposure, and fresh institutional interest from Paradigm all adding fuel to the story. I still believe $ZEC could be one of the biggest runners of the next cycle. I genuinely like the technology and the privacy thesis. But I’m rotating into $ETH here. Ethereum is a$AKE Perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.06151, currently at 0.04749, floating profit +455.53%. Before opening the position, I looked at the daily chart level; the price formed a standard "double top" pattern after reaching the previous high, and around 0.06151 formed the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. MACD showed a high-level bearish crossover divergence, volume shrank, which is a typical topping and pullback structure. A strong large bearish candle at the end broke the neckline support decisively. I decisively shorted at 0.06151, setting the stop loss above the previous high. Using 20x leverage with strict position control. The main downtrend wave after the top was established was extremely smooth, directly creating a doubling space. Now moving the trailing stop to 0.052 to lock in profits and let the gains continue to run. $BTC $ETH 📂 20U Real Account Record 092 💰 Principal: 20U 📈 Profit on this trade: Floating profit ✅ Total earnings: About +54U 📌 Current position: $UNITREE First, looking at $BTC, the current price is around 80,360, down 1.15% in 24 hours. The drop doesn't seem large, but the order book data looks unfavorable. The buy-sell depth ratio for the top 5 levels is only 0.32, with the sell side significantly dominant. There is a large sell wall at $80,359.9, accounting for 57.9% of the top 5 sell orders. In a low liquidity environment, this wall's selling pressure is amplified. In the short term, watch the 80,265 support and the 80,000 round number; breaking these would look bad. Next, looking at ETFs. On Tuesday, when the CLARITY bill was rejected, 450 million flowed out; on Wednesday, the day of the rate hike, another 296 million flowed out; but starting Thursday, 159 million flowed back in, and on Friday, 433 million returned directly. Calculated for the whole week, the net inflow was 6.1 million, almost zero. This means panic funds withdrew midweek but were bought back on Friday. The ETH ETF was not so lucky, with a net outflow of 140 million for the week, ending four consecutive weeks of inflows. As for SOL, it has pulled back from its high. On September 18, it surged above 112, a new high since January, rising nearly 11% in 24 hours. But today it corrected to around 108, down about 3% in 24 hours, a typical pullback after a breakout. On-chain RWA scale has exceeded 4 billion, wallet addresses exceed 350,000, the underlying logic remains intact, but short-term profit-taking is underway.#ZECPositionsDiverge $ZEC holders have a serious memory problem. A few months ago, a critical vulnerability raised the possibility that counterfeit ZEC could theoretically be created in unlimited amounts. It was patched, but there’s no cryptographic way to know whether it was ever exploited. The market panicked around $250. Now $ZEC is near $1,550 — and that uncertainty is still unresolved. 💀 Selective memory. 🧠 #ZEC #Crypto #PrivacyCoins #DailyOrbit 💥Two major bearish factors hit, yet BTC surprisingly didn't crash! This means the bearish pressure has been fully absorbed. In the past two days, BTC's volatility has nearly reached $5,000, which looks scary, but beneath the surface, it's full of signals. The Fed's 25bp rate hike was confirmed, and the dot plot suggests another hike within the year. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate—two major bearish events were already priced in by the market on Wednesday. The key detail: after the news of the bill's failure, there was no deep sell-off in the market. What does this indicate? The selling pressure from the bears has already dried up. The real driver behind this rebound is the inflow of funds into spot ETFs. On Thursday, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $159 million, ending two consecutive days of large outflows and bringing buyers back. Technically, the picture is improving simultaneously: the 4-hour lows have been steadily rising, starting the rebound from 74,800; the daily MACD green bars are narrowing, signaling a shift from correction to rebound. Key levels: • Short-term resistance at 81,400; breaking through targets 82,300–83,000 • First support below at 79,800–79,500 • Bullish lifeline at 78,000 Overall bias is bullish, but avoid chasing highs near 81,300. Wait for a pullback to stabilize around 79,500–80,000 before entering positions for a safer margin. When bearish factors are fully priced in, it often marks the start of a market reversal.HYPE just touched 94 then fell back to 91: Lending lent out 269 million on the first day Rhythm recorded yesterday: HYPE once touched about $94.43, a historical high, rising about 9.1% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about $21 billion. Today OKX spot is about $91.62, 24-hour high 93.4, low 89.66; HTX intraday high about 94.20. The day after the new high, it gave back a few dollars. The catalyst is not just sentiment. On September 18, HyperCore launched manual lending, with the official stating the first-day loan scale was about $269 million, allowing HYPE or BTC as collateral to borrow USDC/USDT. Kraken's parent company Payward also stated plans to use HIP-3 to offer Hyperliquid on-chain perpetuals to US customers through CFTC-regulated Bitnomial. It hasn't landed yet, just the path is opened. At the same time, Binance Vision spot BTC is about $80,497, 24-hour high 81,951, low 80,126, down about 1.0%; Coinbase about $80,454. The fear and greed index is still at 71. The judgment is simple: HYPE has lending demand and a US entry narrative, these two are stronger than shouting "altcoin season." Blockchain Center's altcoin season index is about 43 today, far from 75. Don't mistake a single coin's new high as confirmation of a full rotation. $HYPE $BTC #Market #DeFi This does not constitute investment advice. $DASH SHORT SETUP | 1H Trend continuation setup with bearish momentum. Entry zone: 55.98–56.14 Stop loss: 57.22 Targets: TP1 54.55 (1.3R) / TP2 53.79 (1.96R) / TP3 53.04 (2.6R) Scale out: 30% / 30% / 40% Considerations: the direction conflicts with the BTC 4H filter; estimated EV is -0.54R, below the active threshold. Status: Watchlist only — wait for confirmation before considering the setup.$BTC, $ETH, $DOGE — don't always view them with a fixed script. Dogecoin is weak in the short term but follows the uptrend in the long term; BTC is stuck around 80,000, with 82,800 as a key hurdle; ETH is highly volatile, with liquidation clusters, but firmly bullish. It sounds reasonable but is actually one-sided. DOGE: Without product yield support, it relies entirely on sentiment. When the market bulls cool off, funds exit faster than mainstream coins. This time, the retracement exceeds yesterday's gains and is an oversell, not just a short-term correction, but a normal fund structure shift. When risk appetite changes, BTC may wobble slightly, and DOGE can plunge deeply. Don't assume that because BTC is strong long-term, Dogecoin will definitely follow. In a choppy market, MEME funds rotate, and when the hype fades, Dogecoin may underperform for a long time. BTC: 82,800 is not just a simple technical resistance; it accumulates many long orders and contract chips. Breaking through can easily be a false breakout, tricking buyers into chasing highs before falling back. Trends are dynamic, with interest rate expectations and US Treasury yields able to reverse anytime. Holding stubbornly and ignoring pullbacks may lead to large floating losses during prolonged volatility. The current trend is intact but doesn't mean it will always be so. ETH: Liquidation clusters don't necessarily mean a rally; it can also explode downward. On the downside, long liquidations cause chain reactions and amplified drops. ETH is elastic in both directions, rising sharply but also falling hard. It moves with BTC and lacks independent positive catalysts. If BTC doesn't hold, ETH's decline is likely to exceed BTC's. Don't just focus on its strong rallies and forget it also falls hard. Conclusion: All three are highly tied to overall market sentiment, with no absolutely safe long-term bullish script. Volatility could be a buildup or a depletion of bulls. #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 Rezaei clarifies — Iran's ceasefire conditions proposed to the US are not three but seven; has the downgrade of ceasefire preconditions failed? I don't think so. The two most important pieces of news today: early this morning, Iran stated it had submitted three major ceasefire preconditions to the US via Qatar, reducing the preconditions from seven to three, which once made me think it was a downgrade signal. However, just now, Rezaei reiterated that the three conditions are the main ones, and there are still four undisclosed conditions. So the question arises: since the conditions have not decreased, can this still be considered a downgrade of the preconditions? First, although the preconditions remain seven, with four hidden, it means the main ceasefire preconditions have been reduced to three, while the other four are not disclosed and are very likely transformed into substantive specific conditions. If the previous seven ceasefire conditions were a vague and high-threshold framework, the current seven are gradually moving into substantive progress with a strong purpose — to return to ceasefire negotiations. Second, Iran's proactive admission of submitting negotiation conditions through Qatar, combined with the Iranian Foreign Minister's visit to China this week and the Chinese leader's visit to the US next week, I believe reflects a revision of negotiation conditions after communication with China. The Chinese leadership's push could very well make the US more receptive to the plan, thereby promoting ceasefire and negotiations. Currently, the developments in US-Iran affairs further confirm my previous view — China is genuinely mediating and providing stronger diplomatic support, and the turning point for US-Iran relations returning to negotiations is very likely to occur after the Chinese leader's visit to the US #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 $PEPE The frog jumped, but the whales are running PEPE is hopping out again this round, with funds rotating in the meme sector, the frog riding the hype upwards. The main reason is it really has a new catalyst: today PEPE launched on Solana via Sunrise, hitting $40 million in trading volume in one day, effectively adding a new trading lane and a fresh batch of liquidity. But don’t be fooled by its lively rise; big money on-chain is quietly withdrawing. Whale wallets are offloading, while retaiBinance Wallet's first phase rumored to be Polymarket: The market shows a volume contraction with a vote against   Wow, Binance Wallet Pre-Access's first phase is rumored to be Polymarket—pPOLY tokens have appeared on-chain, but the official side has not commented. The $POLY market response is very calm: only a 0.522% increase in 24 hours, I won't go long on this rumor.   24h trading volume is about 1.49 million USDT, volume ratio only 0.283, not even enough volume to follow the trend; funding rate is 0.0001, leverage is not high. On the big market side, BTC is quoted at 80534, down 0.941% in 24 hours, fear and greed index still at 71—there is heat, but no money moving. Mechanically, if Binance Wallet's entry really goes to Polymarket, related assets gaining traffic would be a real benefit; but the current volume contraction and sideways movement means the market is saying: no trust.   Resistance above: 0.273 (24-hour high, only considered bought if volume breaks out on the rumor) → 0.2745 (previous high)   Support below: 0.2604 (previous low, breaking below would disprove the rumor)   Before official announcement, it will likely grind with low volume; on the day of official announcement, volume will move before price. Those without positions, don't rush to buy; those holding, watch 0.2604 closely, exit if it breaks down, consider going long only if volume breaks above 0.273. Likes are my energy for monitoring the market; full energy means strength to dismantle the manipulation.   $POLY $BTCMany people keep focusing on BTC and ETH, but they overlook OKB, which has been showing increasingly stable performance in this cycle. My view is simple: OKB is not a coin that skyrockets; it is more like a value anchor for the platform ecosystem. As long as trading volume, on-chain ecosystem, and OKX continue to expand, OKB has its own capital logic and does not completely follow altcoin sentiment. The biggest opportunity in the market now is not to blindly chase hot trends, but to find coins with capital support. Don’t FOMO on the rise, don’t panic on the fall; position size is always more important than emotion. Next, I will focus on observing three signals: whether BTC can continue to hold its high position, whether ETH capital continues to flow in, and whether OKB can break through its previous high resistance level. If these three conditions appear simultaneously, the altcoin market may enter the next phase. A bull market is not about making money every day, but about not standing on the wrong side at critical moments. #OKB #BTC #ETH #cryptocurrency #OKX @okx @cz_binance @VitalikButerin @WuBlockchain @CoinMarketCap On Friday, Bitcoin surged with a strong bullish candle, breaking through 81,000, rising over 6% in a single day. From the intraday low, it surged by 5,000 USD, marking the first time since September 7 that it returned above 80,000. The market looks promising, but the capital battles behind the scenes are far more complex than the candlestick chart suggests. First, let's talk about the drivers behind this rally. First, the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 433 million USD in one day, indicating institutional real money buying, not retail sentiment-driven. Second, over 470 million USD worth of short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with nearly 120,000 accounts liquidated. This is a classic short squeeze — price rises trigger short stop-losses, and the forced buybacks from liquidations push prices even higher, creating a positive feedback loop. However, on-chain data shows clear divergence. A MATRIXPORT-associated address transferred 1,000 BTC to Binance, worth 81 million USD, a typical profit-taking signal. Another whale sold 602 BTC (about 45.83 million USD) within 3 days and then bought 18,780 ETH, indicating funds are migrating from Bitcoin to Ethereum. Yet, there is also a whale with cumulative profits of 17.68 million USD who adjusted positions by reallocating 32 million USD within 24 hours to add 250 BTC, showing completely opposing bullish and bearish views. Technically, above 83,000 there are still 560 million USD worth of short orders waiting to be liquidated, while below 79,000 lies a 477 million USD long order danger zone. On the macro front, the market expects a 57.6% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, and the US dollar index rose 1.1% this week, holding above the 200-day moving average. Although the ETF's single-day inflow of 400 million USD is decent, it is far below last year's bull market levels 82000和2650这两个位置，捅了几次都没破，确实够硬。 站在项目方角度想，这种关口反复被测试，要么是在攒突破的力气，要么就是故意留着当心理锚点。我更倾向后者。 先让人相信这里是铁顶，等空头加满、多头死心，再一口气拉过去，把追多的人骗进来，然后反手砸下去。这套剧本听着熟不熟？ 另一种可能更磨人，高点不断下移，涨一波跌一波，慢慢阴跌，连个痛快都不给。 至于直接开牛市，26年之前我不信。周末盯盘盯了个寂寞，还是睡觉划算，至少梦里不插针。 #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 #全球高利率预期再升温 $HYPE $ADA is back at a level that really matters. Price has bounced hard from the $0.19 area and is now pushing into the $0.218–$0.223 resistance zone. This is where I’d expect the real battle. If ADA gets rejected → $0.205–$0.20 could be the next retest. If bulls break and hold above $0.223, the chart opens up toward $0.23–$0.25. I’m not chasing this candle. Let ADA show the next move first.$WGMI surged over 7% intraday, miners + AI computing power in US stocks are outperforming spot this round. After BTC held $80,000 on Friday, crypto concept stocks showed resilience once again. On X, some are watching the miner ETF basket, with $CIFR $IREN $NBIS moving in the same direction and volume picking up. Simply put: this is not just chasing coin prices, it’s more like a catch-up rally driven by power and computing power narratives. In the last cycle, these kinds of stocks often had volatility several times that of spot. My view: resilient stocks are suitable for small position trial and error, not for going all-in as a spot substitute. In a recovery market, first verify volume before considering adding positions. What I’m doing: lightly following the basket for observation. If it fails, watch for BTC dropping below $80,000 or individual stocks showing volume without price increase. Do you prefer the miner ETF basket or directly holding platform stocks? $WGMI $CIFR $IREN #BTC holds $80,000, crypto market recovery spreads #SEC tokenized stock innovation exemption implemented, UNI surged over 21% intradayMindset is something—when you're out of the market, everyone stays calm. But once you open a position, even your breathing changes, and every candlestick feels like it's targeting you. I used to think I could hold on, but that was only because I hadn't put any money in. Once the money is in, all your personality flaws get magnified: impatience, greed, unwillingness to admit mistakes, and a tendency to overcompensate. Trading didn't fix me; it just exposed me first.PONS really dropped to the first take-profit zone mentioned earlier by babala. $PONS The 0.69 short position is still held, currently on OKEx perpetual at about 0.575, with the underlying price having retraced approximately 16.7% from the entry point. Previously, the price was forcing shorts above 0.74, but now it has not only broken below 0.60 but also failed to hold 0.58, indicating that the high-level chasing funds are retreating, and the narrative of buyback and burn cannot temporarily support the short-term selling pressure. But the lower it falls here, the more you shouldn't just think "wait a bit longer, it will definitely go lower." 0.57–0.58 has been a repeatedly contested support zone recently, and now the price has entered this area, so babala plans to take partial profits around 0.575 first, not gambling on a sudden rebound for a few cents. If PONS continues to break below 0.57 and the rebound fails to reclaim 0.58, the next main take-profit target is 0.54–0.55. Finally, only a small position will be left to observe 0.50–0.52. This target must be based on an effective break below 0.54; no premature assumptions before confirmation. On the upside, watch 0.58 and 0.60 again. If the price quickly recovers above 0.58, it indicates support below; once it firmly stands above 0.60 again, the downward momentum of this round will significantly weaken, and the remaining short positions need to be handled more cautiously. From 0.69 down to 0.575, this segment is already considerable. Babala can continue to be bearish but should not let the floating profits already in hand ride another roller coaster with PONS.A public chain voting to shut itself down ZetaChain proposes to swap $ZETA 1:1 for SPL tokens on Solana, with the code unchanged. Key rule: migration only happens after a vote passes; voting starts on September 17 and lasts 72 hours. Even more outrageous, it plans to shut down its own L1, taking along the AI application Anuma with 300,000 users. The loss: a chain giving up its own underlying layer is essentially admitting its path didn’t work out. What I admire is the decisiveness—no stubbornness, just switching ships directly. If it were me, I’d probably still be holding on, waiting for a rebound that will never come. Even the most dependent holders can’t bear to close their own positions. #SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 $SOL Stop staring meaninglessly at whether interest rates will rise or not. The new narrative for Bitcoin and Ethereum: regulatory easing is the real catalyst. While the market is still debating whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, Bitcoin and Ethereum have long switched their trading logic. What truly drives their independent market moves is the subtle shift in regulatory direction. In the past two years, the biggest suppression in the crypto market did not come from interest rates but from the Damocles sword of regulation. From the SEC's intensive lawsuits to the successive crackdowns on exchanges, policy uncertainty has deterred institutional funds. But now, the situation is reversing: Hong Kong has issued the first virtual asset licenses, U.S. courts' rulings on the Grayscale case are forcing the SEC to reconsider spot ETFs, and the EU's MiCA framework is gradually being implemented — regulation is shifting from "containment" to "standardization," and this is the key to changing the game. Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH are trading not on marginal changes in interest rates but on the opening of compliant channels. Once traditional asset management giants can allocate crypto assets in a compliant manner, the scale of incremental funds will far exceed the short-term disturbances caused by interest rate fluctuations. Those trading by focusing on interest rate hikes may be missing the core logic of this structural market trend. When regulatory walls turn into bridges, the integration of the crypto market with mainstream finance truly begins. #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% #ZEC高位震荡，多空仓位开始分化 [Bearish] XRP has fallen back below 1.40, now around 1.38, down 3.6% in 24 hours, one of the larger drops among major coins. The structural issues remain the same two. First is RLUSD; Ripple's stablecoin scale firmly stands at $2.4 billion, having increased more than tenfold since the beginning of the year. Institutions like JPMorgan and Mastercard use RLUSD directly at the settlement layer, increasing ledger activity, but the value transmission bypasses XRP itself. Second is custodial release; Ripple still holds 32.6 billion XRP locked, releasing 100 million XRP monthly, which is a long-term selling pressure clearly on the table. The spot XRP ETF has accumulated $1.68 billion with consecutive days of net inflows; money is coming in, but the price has retraced 27% from the high of 1.90 on January 1 this year. ETF buying cannot withstand the monthly new supply. On the macro side, with interest rate hikes and geopolitical tensions, risk appetite is overall contracting, so I am short-term bearish. [Bearish reasons] RLUSD diverts XRP utility at the settlement layer, combined with the continuous selling pressure from monthly 1 billion XRP custodial unlocks. ETF inflows are insufficient to hedge incremental supply, price returns below $1.40, short-term bearish. $XRP #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 #RLUSD #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 Gold $XAU's recent decline is the first pullback within the weekly uptrend. The market is supported by the weekly line and has already broken through the 4-hour descending trendline. I believe the bullish trend is not over yet. If it can pull back to around 4350 here, I will add to my position. The long-term expectation is for a new upward wave, with a chance to challenge previous highs. #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% $BTC $ETH BTC tonight looks like it’s going to drop, but it didn’t actually fall. First, the data: current price 80449, down 1% in 24h. Yesterday it surged to 81953 but didn’t hold, sliding all the way down to 80133, now hovering around 80,000. Technical side: daily chart is still bullish, hasn’t broken MA20 (78591); but 4-hour and 1-hour charts have turned bearish, short-term is just digesting the profits from the big rise. Macro is all headwinds — Fed raised rates by 25bp on the 16th, first time in 2023; 10-year US Treasury at 4.97%; ETF net outflow of 753 million from the 8th to the 15th; Fear & Greed Index still at 71 in the greed zone. But interestingly, despite all the bad news, the price held above 80,000 and didn’t crash. Either the bad news was priced in early, or there’s real money buying between 78k-80k. My view: short-term pressure from rate hikes and ETF outflows keeps it from rising; but no panic seen, so no deep drop. Just a grinding consolidation. Key levels to note: if 80133 breaks, look for 79595; on the upside, only a move back above 80900 counts as stable. Mid-term bottom line is 78591, if that doesn’t break, this isn’t over yet. Don’t guess direction now, wait for a pullback to 79600-80000 to stabilize before deciding; chasing highs or bottom fishing is risky. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. $AAVE perpetual contract 50x long, opened at 132.93, rose to 135.68, floating profit 103.43%. $CP short position entered at 0.04261, current price 0.01286, floating profit 1396.85%. Just finished lunch and checked the market, CP was pretending to pump again, glanced at the sell orders, the sell pressure was thick, the support was not enough to watch, this kind of rise is just a headhunter's market. The price was exactly at 0.04261, followed the short idea to enter, didn't expect it to drop much, but it slid directly to 0.01286 in the afternoon, floating profit +1396.85%. Although it's not a big gain, this piece of profit was very satisfying, really awesome. Thin profits require quick exits, first take 70% off the table, safely pocket it; the remaining 30% stop loss at cost price, keep it to see if there can be a second wave. Don't fall in love with stocks, run when the trend is bad; the money earned is the realization of your cognition; the money lost is the flaw in your cognition. Don't rush to enter now, most of that wave has already passed, wait for a new structure to form, then give the signal. $ZEC $BTC #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 [Bearish] SOL has fallen below 110, now around 108, down over 3% in 24 hours, dropping more sharply than BTC. High beta's elasticity in risk-off markets is bidirectional. Last week, SOL was still leading gains, rising 9.5% in a week to 111.8, driven by SEC Chair Atkins' remarks at the Solana Policy Institute summit about Project Crypto's three workflows—asset regulation, transfer agent modernization, and advisory self-custody—giving the major L1 a policy expectation. But expectations aside, the CLARITY Act failed to pass the 60-vote threshold on September 15 with a 50-49 vote, so the federal-level framework has not been implemented. On the market front, with the Middle East escalation and rate hikes, funds first withdrew from high-volatility assets, and SOL, which had risen the most earlier, was hit first. After losing 110, support is expected around the 100 level. [Bearish reasons] SOL broke below the $110 mark; its previous largest gains and high beta characteristics cause it to retreat faster in risk-off conditions, compounded by the federal regulatory CLARITY Act still not being implemented, making the short-term outlook bearish. $SOL #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 #白宫会晤加密业，政策成果待观察 $ONE market narrative: A coin that announced "mainnet shutdown" doubled in a week. Entry logic: In August, a cross-shard vulnerability forged tens of trillions of tokens; the mainnet will shut down in September and migrate to Ethereum ERC-20. The narrative shifted from "public chain" to "AI video remix economy." ONE price violently rebounded from the August low of $0.00057, with a 99% historical drop background, shorts were already thin — this is not value discovery, but a short squeeze in a chip vacuum. $AKE Position: Entered in batches at 0.0022334, current price 0.0044456, up +990.5%, 10x leverage amplifies unrealized profit close to 10x principal. Technically, daily volume broke out of a long-term downtrend channel, but the close on the 19th did not hold above 0.002863, volume shrank by 41.98%, RSI hit 92.2 indicating extreme overbought — a typical case of insufficient follow-through after a surge. Take profit: In batches, reduce one-third near 0.0043, hold the rest aiming for 0.0051 (previous high) and 0.0065 range; funding rates and liquidation events will help take profits. Stop loss: Unconditionally exit below 0.00316 (30-day EMA), accelerate exit if breaking 0.00294. Mindset: A coin with a 99.5% drop can double overnight or go to zero overnight. Small positions play with heartbeats, full positions play with life. #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 BTC hovered around $80,000 for several hours after dropping near that level, but no recovery move has appeared yet. In the OKX snapshot from 19:27 to 19:52, BTC was about $80,360, less than $100 higher than before 17:00; SOL was about 108.58, still below 110. Meanwhile, BTC perpetual current funding rate remains at 0.01%, and after the price pullback, longs paying fees have not turned negative. This looks more like selling pressure temporarily slowing down, with no signs yet of shorts being forced to cover or new buying quickly absorbing chips. Staying flat at a low level is certainly better than continuing to plunge, but sideways movement alone does not prove support has formed. Tonight, I only acknowledge price recovery: BTC must reclaim above 80,900, SOL must reclaim above 110, to revise the failed breakout judgment from this afternoon. If BTC approaches the intraday low of 80,133 again, longs under positive funding rates will still face the next round of squeeze. I will keep waiting and not take a period of quiet sideways movement as a bottoming signal. $BTC On the market, INJ once hovered around 8 to 8.2. The 24-hour public gain fluctuated between 10% and 20%. Trading volume discussions pushed it up to around 200 to 300 million USD, and the market cap was still around 800 million USD. What really tightened sentiment wasn't just the gainers chart rising another day; 21Shares pushed forward the revised registration of the spot INJ ETF. Nasdaq plans to use the ticker TINJ. Let me break 😂 it down by several layers. 1. Market Front: In the altcoin channel, it was brighter today. BTC was still grinding around 81,000. When Ethereum was hovering around 2600, INJ managed to build short-term momentum. In weekly public gains, it also reached around 30%. When float chips' market cap is small, any "institutional channel" news is magnified. 2. Why it's hot: S-1/A writes TINJ into Nasdaq. In a public report on September 18, 21Shares submitted its first revised registration statement to the SEC. The S-1/A product name is 21Shares Injective ETF, planned to be listed on Nasdaq, codenamed TINJ. The initial S-1 was submitted around October 20, 2025. This revision completes the listing coordinates and structural details. 3. Structure layer: passive tracking, dual custody, benchmark FTSE. The prospectus roughly reads: passive exposure, no leverage or derivatives, sponsored by 21Shares US LLC, custody via Coinbase, Custody, and BitStay clear-headed during emotional frenzy, decisively follow up after trend confirmation. Use 20x leverage to short, strictly follow discipline. $AKE currently shows bearish momentum, price moving down along the moving average, weak rebound, characteristic of a weak trend. Short-term selling is active, bearish structure intact. Entered short at 0.07045, latest mark price 0.04928, 20x return +600.99%. Plan to reduce positions stepwise to lock in profits, move stop loss up to protect principal. Let remaining positions follow the trend, beware of oversold rebound. Stick to discipline and wait for the next signal. $ONE $OFC #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 ETH volume has halved, hitting 2669 with no buyers, then dropping back to 2572. Yesterday opened at 2584, highest 2663, lowest 2579, closed at 2641, volume 358 million. Today opened at 2641, highest 2669, lowest 2564, current price around 2572. Volume 195 million, volume halved over the weekend. Resistance remains between 2572–2669, and above that, 2667 was already touched last week. On the downside, watch 2564 first; if it breaks, 2437 is likely next. Don't chase 2669 in the short term. For those holding, watch if 2564 support holds; if not, reduce positions. The weekend's volume contraction can be seen as digestion; wait for volume to return on Monday to see if it can reclaim 2641. $ETH $BTC instantly plunged from 81950 to 80100, is the bull market over? Don't panic, it's not the end of the bull market, just a needed correction after a rapid rise. Three reasons for the drop: short-term profit-taking, a cascade of leveraged long liquidations, and thin weekend liquidity. In the short term, it surged from 74900 to 81930, nearly a 9% increase, prompting short-term funds to take profits. The 1-hour MACD shows a high-level divergence; breaking below 80900 triggered a chain stop-loss, crashing down to 80100. ✅ The daily chart still holds above EMA5 (79650) and the Bollinger middle band (78550), indicating a technical pullback after a rise, not a trend reversal. ⚠️ After the plunge, don't rush to short; beware of a possible bull counterattack? #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% #ZEC高位震荡，多空仓位开始分化 According to private circle analysis, Standard Chartered gives $ARB phased targets: $0.5 in 2026, $1.5 in 2027, $3.5 in 2028, and sees $10 by 2030 in the long term. $ETH Based on a total supply of 1 billion tokens, $10 corresponds to an FDV close to the hundred-billion level. This valuation threshold is extremely high and is difficult to realize solely through existing L2 user competition; the core premise is that Arbitrum becomes the underlying infrastructure for financial on-chain applications. $BTC The logic starting point comes from Robinhood Chain. After launching based on the Arbitrum tech stack, this chain will return 10% of net protocol revenue back to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Currently, more than 30 chains have joined this model. Standard Chartered estimates that Robinhood Chain alone could bring about $5 million in AEP revenue in September, directly boosting Arbitrum's monthly revenue by several times. However, this report contains optimistic assumptions. The key to the market is not just the Robinhood case, but whether this chain issuance model can be continuously replicated. If brokers, banks, and RWA platforms adopt Arbitrum to build dedicated public chains in batches, the narrative will be completely reshaped; if only Robinhood succeeds, the hundred-billion valuation is hard to sustain. In summary: Standard Chartered's bullish bet is not on the present, but on whether the institutional on-chain issuance wave can take off. This is the biggest fundamental variable for $ARB going forward.I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me to profit. This service is top-notch. The gains from $UNI this round are enough for me to add several dishes. $DOOD perpetual contract 20x long, opened at 0.001624, rose to 0.001749, floating profit 153.94%. $UNI long position entered at 6.357, current price 6.357, floating profit 554%. While others were running away, I kept my eyes on UNI and didn't let go. It ground sideways at the bottom, grinding without breaking, the support was always there. The moment it held steady on the pullback, it signaled a buy. Now the data speaks: entered at 6.357, currently at 6.357, +554% return. The previous ordeal was worth it. Take profits when you should: exit 75% first, set breakeven on the remaining 25%, let it keep running. If it dares to pull back, it won't touch your principal. The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and bleed out. Don't rush recklessly at this position, wait quietly for good news, and take the position immediately when the next signal comes out. $SOL $AKE #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 一条被加密圈忽略的国际新闻：路透社 9 月 18 日报道，中国应沙特请求，要求伊朗限制胡塞武装对沙特石油设施的攻击。 同一天，沙特通过阿曼向胡塞提出两周停火方案。布伦特从周中 108 高点连跌三天到103 附近，WTI 跌破 100。油价跌了，BTC 反而从75K 涨到了 $81K。 为什么油价跌 = BTC 涨？ 传导链很清楚。第一，油价下跌 → 通胀预期降温 → 10 月加息概率下降 → 风险资产集体松绑。本周 BTC 的暴力反弹和油价三连跌几乎完全同步——9 月 18 日布伦特跌 1.58% 到 100.30 那天，BTC 单日拉了 6.5%。第二，沙特停火方案如果落地 → 霍尔木兹海峡通行恢复预期上升 → 全球"能源危机"叙事降温 → 避险资金从黄金和 BTC 的"防御仓位"中部分撤出，但风险偏好的全面回升对 BTC 的正面影响更大。第三，沙特 8 月原油产量跌至 624 万桶/日（1990 年以来最低），EIA 预计 Q4 中东停产量约 570 万桶/日。供应端的刚性缺口短期无法弥补，意味着油价不会回到80 以下——"高油价 + 边际降温"的组合会持续。 今天能用的结论： 盯Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety😏. $ZEN perpetual contract 50x long, opened at 7.241, rose to 7.565, floating profit 223.72%. $USELESS long position laid around 0.13569, current price 0.20406, floating profit 503.94%. The last glance before sleep, USELESS was still hovering around 0.13569, the bottom grinding almost made me question life, but I never moved that line because the bottom was getting more solid, no breakout at all. Looking again today, the price has already pulled up to 0.20406, floating profit directly hitting +503.94%, this wait was not in vain. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet. I will take 75% off the table first, move the stop loss above the cost price for the remaining 25%, hold if it continues to rise, let it roll if it can’t, don’t spit out the meat that’s already in your mouth. The money earned is the realization of knowledge, the money lost is the flaw in understanding. Protecting profits is a hundred times more important than making quick money🫡. Friends who just woke up, don’t rush to chase, now is not the time to push, wait for the next structural move, I will call it in advance. $ZEC $BTC #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 $BTC $ETH In the same week, the U.S. put diplomacy and war on the same table. On one hand, it issued a visa to the Iranian president to attend the UN General Assembly in New York; on the other, Trump hinted at a "major decision" to be made—whether to restart large-scale strikes. On Tuesday, he is also scheduled to meet leaders from six countries including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Riyadh's air defense alarm sounded twice, and thick smoke rose near the airport. No bombs fell, but the market trembled first. In the short term, crypto can't hold up. The Fed raised interest rates to 3.75%-4%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke 5%, the dollar rose 1.2% for the week, and gold surpassed 4400. BTC fell below 78,000 last week; on the day of the airstrike, 180 million in liquidations occurred within an hour, with longs accounting for 173 million. Mid-term outlook on oil: Brent broke 100, reaching as high as 109. Every million barrels of supply disruption adds 4 dollars to oil prices. Oil prices → inflation → hawkish stance → higher and longer interest rates, crypto continues to be under pressure. Long term returns to BTC's home field: the more chaotic geopolitics get, the stronger the non-sovereign store of value; with the Strait of Hormuz passing over 20 million barrels daily and even energy channels fragile, private keys become a safe haven. Watch Tuesday when Trump meets Gulf leaders, Wednesday when the Iranian president speaks at the UN, and Netanyahu arriving at the end of the month. Scenario A no escalation: BTC recovers to 80,000-85,000, but there are 1.235 billion in short liquidations above, short squeeze could happen anytime. Scenario B controllable: 76,000-80,000 range with repeated grinding, greed index at 71, ETF net outflow of 3,617 coins over seven days. Scenario C escalation: testing 72,000 or even 70,000, breaking below 77,600 with long liquidations of 1.349 billion. #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 This wave was purely due to good market sentiment, casually throwing some coins around, and it just happened to hit me on the head. During the bottoming process in the session, no matter how much $RAY was hammered, it just wouldn't go down, so I kept an eye on RAY's buy orders. The buy orders gradually got stronger, with someone catching the bottom. I only said: test the long position at this level, don't overdo it, and exit if wrong. Risk control comes first, that's called being rational; cutting losses later is called decisive action. Later it rose from 1.1200 to 1.6337, with a floating profit of +916.78%. The timing was just right, and this profit felt good. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying. I first took profit on 70%, pocketing the main chunk. The remaining 30% is protected at cost price; if it continues to rise, let the profit run, and if it pulls back, don't let the gains turn uncomfortable. Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and I will notify you immediately. There will be more opportunities later, don't rush. $ZEC $SOL The Clarity Act did not advance, and the market's attention shifted from Congress to the SEC and CFTC. The procedural vote in the U.S. Senate failed 49 to 50, blocking the Clarity Act. The industry's most direct feeling is that the long-term compliance path for exchanges, DeFi, and token issuance may have to wait for further regulatory details to move forward. For mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL, this is not a direct price catalyst; the short-term interpretation of regulatory certainty is somewhat bearish. But this does not mean regulation will remain absent. The SEC has promoted innovation exemptions for tokenized stocks, and the CFTC is also advancing crypto market rules. A more realistic observation is that regulatory friction remains, but the window for on-chain business is still open. Are you more focused on the legislative pace of Congress or the follow-up rules from the SEC/CFTC?周五晚上，富达 FBTC 单日净流入约 3.1 亿，一举超过贝莱德 IBIT 的1.08 亿——这是 2026 年以来首次单日"王座换位"。但另一组数据泼了盆冷水：本周美国 BTC 现货 ETF 全周累计净流入仅约 620 万。一天4.33 亿 vs 一周 620 万，中间差了4.27 亿——钱进来又出去了。 如果你是扛着仓位过周末的人，这个矛盾必须看懂。 先说好消息。 周五 ETF 总成交额约 46.7 亿，合并净资产突破1,025 亿。以太坊 ETF 同日流入 1.44 亿，Solana ETF 流入4,762 万——机构买盘不是只盯着 BTC，而是在"加密大类资产"层面配置。这是结构性的增量信号。链上 SOPR 连续三周站在 1.0 以上，卖盘被新买盘接住了。 再说冷水。 Alnvest 的深度分析一针见血："单日 ETF 流入是噪音，滚动周度趋势才是信号。" 9 月 3 日单日流入 7.31 亿，两周后 9 月 15 日单日流出4.5 亿——同一个工具，7 亿进4.5 亿出，一个月内方向完全翻转。过去 30 天 BTC ETF 累计净流入约 16 亿，但过去 7 天截至 9/1The most noteworthy aspect of Delphi is breaking down the question "Has the altcoin season already arrived?" into a set of more fundamental structural issues: where the funds come from, how risk appetite is transmitted, which assets can truly capture new economic activity, and how far the altcoin market can go without comprehensive incremental liquidity. First, the altcoin season is shifting from "broad Beta" to "structural Alpha." In the past, typical altcoin seasons usually spread progressively from BTC, ETH, large-cap altcoins to small-cap assets, driven primarily by incremental liquidity entering the market. But the current market does not fully fit this pattern: BTC, ETH, and SOL have not simultaneously experienced large-scale breakthroughs, yet funds are highly concentrated in a few strong assets like ZEC, HYPE, Lighter, and highly volatile on-chain trading opportunities. This means the current market is not "everything you buy goes up," but closer to what Yan calls an alt picker’s environment—selective coin picking. As unified liquidity Beta weakens, income, fees, token emissions, and value capture mechanisms begin to differentiate assets. Second, the recovery of on-chain risk appetite does not equate to new capital entering the entire crypto market. A key past indicator of bull market expansion was whether external capital continued to flow in. But Jose’s assessment of the current market is more cautious: many buy orders may simply be returning crypto investors who had previously exited, rather than genuinely new capital. Meanwhile, products like FOMO and Robinhood Chain have indeed started reaching users outside the traditional Crypto Twitter circles. Both phenomena can coexist—new users exist in local markets, but the entire asset class has yet to form a clear trend of incremental capital. Therefore, whether BTC, ETH, and SOL can expand again will be an important test to determine if this market phase is a "rotation" or an "expansion." Third, tokenization and on-chain stocks are changing how risk appetite is carried. Most past crypto market applications revolved around native tokens, with assets, liquidity, and trading demand highly self-contained. The recent emergence of on-chain stocks and derivative plays on Robinhood Chain and Solana more clearly brings assets with off-chain economic value, like stocks, into the native crypto trading ecosystem for the first time. In the short term, these still contain many Meme, leverage, and speculative mechanisms; but over a longer cycle, the change is that on-chain applications can start building new trading, yield, and social products around traditional assets. What’s truly worth observing is not how long a particular play lasts, but whether on-chain finance begins to shift from "trading crypto assets" to "trading all assets using crypto infrastructure." Fourth, "narrative benefits" and "value capture" are being re-distinguished. The development of RWA, tokenization, and on-chain stocks theoretically benefits the entire public chain ecosystem, but Delphi does not believe value will flow evenly to all underlying assets. On the contrary, who can directly obtain trading fees, stable income, and sustained buying pressure may be more important than "which chain this trend happens on." For this reason, when discussing assets like ETH and HYPE, the real comparison is not which narrative is grander, but who can convert new activity into quantifiable economic value. This change essentially marks the altcoin market’s migration from pure trading stories to trading cash flow and supply-demand structure. If this conversation is compressed into one judgment, it is: the altcoin market has already emerged, but a truly comprehensive Alt Season still requires new capital and broader risk dispersion to prove itself. In this sense, the subject of this article is no longer just "the next altcoin that will rise," but a new capital structure forming in the crypto market: when broad liquidity-driven rallies are no longer the sole driver, differentiation among assets, value capture ability, and where the next buyer comes from will be more important than the label "altcoin season" itself. $BTC $ETH $ZEC At the beginning of strong cycles, Bitcoin retraced noticeably deeper after the first wave of growth than it does now. In 2023, BTC fell from around ~$25K to nearly $20K — about −23%. In 2019, after ~$9.1K it retraced to around ~$7.5K — approximately −17%. Currently, after moving from ~$60K to ~$82K, the correction looks significantly milder. Therefore, the key question is not the number of positive news, but BTC's ability to hold above the $82–83K zone. If the resistance is absorbed, the recovery structure will become much more convincing. For now, the market is still in the demand confirmation phase.$RE perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.55592, currently at 0.4532, floating profit +369.54%. Market observation: RE current price 0.4532 is in a deep downtrend channel. After listing, it surged to 1.09 then plunged unilaterally, moving averages arranged bearish. Recently maintaining low-level consolidation, rebound with low volume, bullish momentum exhausted. KDJ showed extreme overbought then a death cross continuation, MACD running below zero line. New coin retreat + unlocking selling pressure resonance. I followed the short at 0.55592 (rebound resistance/breakdown), stop loss set at 0.58. Strict position control with 20x leverage. Current price 0.4532, trailing stop moved up to 0.48 breakeven. Key support at 0.41-0.44, break below targets 0.38; resistance at 0.48, 0.50-0.52. ⚠️ Risk: With 20x leverage, about 5% adverse move triggers liquidation. +369% is already very high floating profit, be sure to take profit immediately or move stop loss to 0.48 breakeven. $ZEC $AKE Green-haired ETH long position: unrealized profit 338% but no take profit, eventually all lost Leverage: 100x Full position long Principal margin: 76.38 U Opening average price: 2488.29 Position value: 7638.01 U Peak unrealized profit: +250.4 U, return rate 338.94% Liquidation price: 2473 Did not choose to take profit when the account was greatly profitable, hoping the market would continue to rise. 100x leverage has extremely low tolerance for error, the liquidation line is only 15 points away from the opening price. A rapid pullback with a wick directly hit the liquidation price of 2473. Paper wealth instantly disappeared, profits and principal were both taken away. Contract iron rule: profits that are not realized by clicking close position are always just numbers. No matter how high the unrealized profit is, if you don't take profit and secure it, it can be returned to the market at any time. $ETH ⚔️ $BTC vs $SOL — DEFENSE vs MOMENTUM 🟠 $BTC → Market leader, liquidity anchor 🟣 $SOL → Higher-beta L1, momentum play BTC holding key support can provide the foundation. But if SOL starts outperforming BTC with rising volume, it could signal stronger risk appetite across the market. The key signal? 👀 BTC sets the direction. SOL shows how much risk traders are willing to take. $BTC $SOL #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #LongYields5%NewNormal UNI has recently been jokingly called an old-school asset A couple of days ago, the SEC compliant tokenized stocks, because in the SEC's regulatory exemption document for tokenized stocks, $UNI was directly named as this kind of “AMM permission pool” model. Naturally, it became the first beneficiary. Its entire narrative has also changed. The total assets in the crypto space are currently about 2.5 trillion, while the US stock market is 150 trillion, which is 60 times the size of crypto assets. If 10 trillion of these assets could enter the crypto space and be tokenized, the shock would be equivalent to Bitcoin rising directly from 75,000 to 300,000. So the imagination space is very, very large. But looking at its on-chain data: 1. Protocol fees in the last 24 hours were 4.27 million USD, protocol revenue 300,000 USD. Less than half of the peak period. 2. Yesterday's buyback and burn amount was 285,000, with a previous peak of 1.1 million. Less than one-third of the peak period. 3. Buyback and burn: Ethereum chain contributed 100,000, Robinhood chain contributed 100,000, still heavily relying on the Robinhood chain, which is not very good. If $PONS does its own swap, this part of the income will be cut off. In summary: the prospects are huge, the price currently reflects this expectation, but the actual on-chain data is a bit weak! #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 The whole network is wondering where the selling pressure is coming from? The answer is: there is no selling pressure at all! Hashrate hits a new high, but miners are hoarding coins Many are puzzled: $BTC rose from 74,000 to 81,000, nearly a 10,000 increase, so why is there no major pullback? The answer is hidden in a data point no one mentions: Bitcoin's hashrate reached a historic high, and miner production was halved after the halving event, so logically miners should be selling coins to recover funds. But on-chain data shows miner wallet balances are not decreasing but increasing; all mined coins are being stored and not transferred to exchanges. What does this mean? The miners, the largest natural sellers, have now become the largest hoarders. If they don't dump, who will? $ETH is even more extreme. The staking rate has exceeded 30%, Bitmine alone has locked 4.9% of the circulating supply, and with continuous net inflows into ETH ETFs, the amount of ETH available for trading outside is decreasing. The supply side is contracting: miners hoarding coins, ETFs accumulating, institutions locking up, and exchange reserves at historic lows. As long as demand returns even a little, prices will be pushed up. This is why despite continuous negative news, prices refuse to fall. #BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散 #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% #美联储10月再加息概率破55% After long-term U.S. Treasury yields approach 5%, many people start saying "buy bonds and earn passively." This statement is only half correct. A 5% coupon is indeed attractive, but long-term bonds are very sensitive to interest rate changes. If yields continue to rise, bond prices may still drop significantly. For those holding to maturity, this is just a paper fluctuation; for institutions using leverage, needing to sell early, or calculating net asset value daily, duration risk can easily turn into real losses. This is also why 5% is not just the discount rate for stock valuations. It also impacts bank balance sheets, mortgage financing, corporate refinancing, and fiscal interest expenses. A company can tolerate high interest rates for one year, but may not withstand refinancing old debt at higher long-term costs. I am now more focused on the buyers behind the yield curve. If insurance companies, pensions, and overseas funds are willing to continuously absorb at around 5%, the long end may form a new equilibrium; if auction demand is weak and term premiums continue to rise, the so-called "high-yield safety cushion" will be constantly eroded by price losses. Bonds may seem quiet, but they hide huge leverage inside. Whether 5% can become the new normal ultimately depends on who is willing to lend money to the U.S. long-term and how much extra compensation they require to stay. #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
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