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Short sellers collectively got shaken out; this round I stepped into a consolidation trap.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw short positions liquidated up to 420 million, with many shorts like me expecting a pullback, directly swept out by a short-term rally.
From the data, BTC and ETH spot funds have significantly flowed back in short term; BTC net inflow exceeded 400 million in 24 hours, and ETH also saw nearly 90 million in buying. On a 7-day scale, funds are still flowing out. I originally judged this as just a rebound to lure longs, expecting the market to soon return to a downtrend, so I positioned short accordingly.
But the actual price action was far more frustrating than imagined. There was no deep correction; instead, the price slowly rose relying on continuous small buy orders, triggering stop losses for contract shorts repeatedly. Although the overall long-short ratio slightly favored longs without extreme bullish frenzy, the damage from a choppy market far exceeded that of a trending market.
Looking back now, the biggest mistake was using trend-based thinking to trade a consolidation. Clearly, there was no definite breakdown signal on the chart, yet I subjectively predicted a top and rushed to short, ultimately getting chopped back and forth. $ETH can only endure.AI intervention in crypto trading: How ordinary people can establish a relative advantage
Currently, a large number of AI trading agents participate in BTC and the crypto market. AI has natural advantages in data scanning, multi-asset monitoring, execution discipline, and 24/7 continuous market watching. However, AI has inherent shortcomings: it heavily relies on historical training data, and when facing entirely new narratives, black swan events, or market paradigm shifts, it may experience model fitting failures; it also lacks deep understanding of geopolitical, policy, and new market narratives, and is easily misled by false market signals.
We don’t need to compete with AI on speed or high-frequency computing; instead, we should leverage uniquely human advantages.
1. Recognize market paradigm shifts
AI requires a large number of candlestick samples to confirm market patterns. Humans can anticipate macro turning points and narrative rotations in advance, such as non-farm payrolls, policy news, and major product catalysts, capturing turning point opportunities before AI completes model adaptation.
2. Narrative and theme judgment
AI can only statistically analyze keyword popularity but struggles to deeply interpret emerging themes, community consensus, and the funding psychology behind events. The early stage of a new story is the main advantage window for humans.
3. Avoid AI-crowded tracks
Stay away from millisecond-level arbitrage and ultra-short contract scalping where AI dominates. We focus on swing trading, event-driven, and thematic trend trading to compete in a differentiated way.
4. Humans make decisions, AI serves as a tool (human-machine collaboration)
Humans set the overall direction, select trading themes, and define risk boundaries; AI handles data organization, signal filtering, and mechanical execution of take-profit and stop-loss. Humans retain final decision-making authority Recently, due to a significant pullback in the hardware sector since July, many friends heavily invested in this field have felt a poor holding experience and are filled with anxiety. In response to this sentiment, what I want to share with everyone is that looking ahead to the second half of the year, hardware will still be the most core narrative in the entire market. The reason for this judgment is that, in the current market, hardware is one of the few sectors supported by strong fundamentals.
Specifically, in the industry chain, whether chips can be successfully delivered ultimately depends on two key links: optics and packaging & testing. Entering the second half of the year, orders in the packaging & testing and optics fields will see large-scale volume increases. It is especially worth noting that the real demand in the optics field currently far exceeds the market's existing maximum supply level; even if the current capacity is tripled, further expansion is still needed.
The reason why the hardware sector's performance at this stage is unsatisfactory is merely due to short-term market expectation deviations. This phenomenon is very common in the stock market. Looking back at a previous period, whether it was gold, Bitcoin, or the software sector, they all experienced similar adjustment processes.
In the process of investing and trading stocks, the biggest challenge to gaining profits lies in how to fight against one's own emotions. Once impatience arises due to market conditions, rash decisions such as reckless opening of positions will definitely be made. It should be known that those who truly make money in the market are often not the smartest investors, but those who choose to hold on during the moments when persistence is most needed.Now is not the time to chase gains; it feels more like a game where both bulls and bears are struggling to survive. Have you ever had a moment when, even after judging the direction, the price seems to be deliberately working against you, slowly wearing down your patience? I stared at the screen, watching the $BTC and $ETH candlesticks climbing one by one, and the floating losses in my account fluctuated along with them. The most tormenting part of this market isn't a crash, but a frog-like reverse movement in warm water—you know using leverage to take positions is dangerous, but you always think "holding on a bit longer will break even." What is the market actually trading in this round of rebound? On the surface, it looks like a strong $SOL is driving the market, but deeper down, funds are betting on an expectation: if Friday's nonfarm payroll data is really weak, the Fed will have more reason to switch to dovish. Broadcom's better-than-expected earnings and Snowflake's upward guidance have warmed tech stocks, and this spillover of risk appetite naturally spills over into crypto assets. However, I must remind myself of one thing: Saudi crude oil exports have fallen to a nine-year low, and the inflation shadow caused by soaring oil prices has not been fully priced in by the market. If Friday's data is unexpectedly strong, or oil prices continue to push inflation expectations higher, these current long-chasing positions will become fuel for the next round of shakeouts. In terms of sector strength, it's clear that funds are flowing back from pure meme and AI concepts to fundamentally backed Layer 1s and infrastructure. $SOL's on-chain activity is indeed recovering, but its ecosystem tokens haven't kept pace, and this divergence usually means the market is still in the early stages of divergence.#Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up $ARB surged nearly 50% this week, $BTC is still hovering around 77,000, $ETH stuck at 2,390. Why? Robinhood Chain has started paying taxes to ARB.
Robinhood Chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, generating $13 million in fee revenue within two months of launch, with 10% of net revenue returned to the $ARB ecosystem per protocol. $ARB has its first cash flow from a single major client, transforming from a “governance token” into an “interest-bearing asset.”
$BTC is suppressed by macro factors, $ETH can’t keep up, $ARB enjoys a unique narrative premium. But 139 million tokens unlock on September 23, and gas subsidies expire in early October, so be cautious chasing the highs.👊
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Tomorrow night at 20:30, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report drops, and I’m watching this one very closely. The market is currently expecting roughly 60K new jobs. My personal estimate is closer to 30K–40K because recent labor-market signals have been losing momentum. If NFP confirms that weakness, volatility across BTC and altcoins could increase quickly. Here’s how I’m looking at the scenarios 👇 1️⃣ NFP BELOW 40K — MAJOR MISS This would be a serious warning that the labor market is cooling fastThe U.S. Department of Justice has this time investigated Hamas's $560,000 in crypto assets and also took over the fundraising website. The amount isn't large, but the signal is strong: Enforcement of crypto assets has become a routine operation at the national security level. Honestly, $560,000 might be just a drop in the bucket for terror financing, but what the DOJ and FBI want is the deterrent effect of "I can investigate, I can freeze." This is actually good news for public chains like BitcIt is now 12:45 AM, and $BTC Bitcoin is roughly around $80,800 to $81,000. Yesterday's surge from over $77,000 to $81,300 rose by about 4%, closing near $81,300.
Last night's rally was mainly driven by short liquidations. After the price dropped to around $76,900, leveraged short positions were liquidated en masse, creating a chain of buy orders that pushed the price all the way up. This was not a large influx of new funds, but more of a passive short squeeze.
The background is that after the big surge in August, the market has been oscillating between $76,000 and $80,000. In September, there are expectations of interest rate hikes and geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, so this move looks more like a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.The sharp surge on September 3rd where BTC hit 80,500 and ETH touched 2,494 is not a new bull run, but an overnight reaction of “dovish expectation repair + short squeeze forcing shorts to cover":
① Macro view is hot: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations + Waller hinted "August inflation cooling means no rate hike in September," CME's September rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.818%, and risk assets collectively loosened.
② Shorts were squeezed: When BTC surged to 80,400, 24h short liquidations dominated (short covering strongly bought into the bullish candle), but the price retreated to 77,500 by the end of the day, a double kill for longs and shorts, with liquidations around 150–250 million USD.
③ ETF took over but did not ignite: BTC ETF net inflow was 3.5 billion in August, and on September 2nd a single-day positive inflow of 101 million (mainly IBIT), acting as support rather than a charge; Coinbase premium 7-day average remains negative, US spot real buying has not returned.
④ Resistance not broken: There is a supply wall of 1.05 million long-term holders between 83,000–86,000, three attempts to break 80,000 were all pushed back to 77,500, RSI daily is overbought at 70+.
In essence = a short-covering rebound triggered by marginal easing of rate hike panic, ETF provides support but US buying is weak. Failure to hold above 80,000 means a retest at 74,000–76,000; a real reversal depends on the triple test of Nonfarm Payrolls + CPI + 9/15 FOMC.Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings look pretty strong, Snowflake up 24%, Broadcom's AI revenue doubled, and yet $BTC and $ETH are like this?
$BTC is still hovering around 77,000-78,000, $ETH can't even hold 2,400, lying at 2,390. AI stocks are soaring like this, but crypto is like dead water, not following at all.
The market is basically not pricing in the AI narrative, but the macro issues. 68% chance of a rate hike before non-farm payrolls, US Treasury yield at 4.8%, Japanese government bonds breaking 3%, who still cares if Broadcom's guidance is high or not? Once liquidity tightens, all risk assets have to kneel. AI earnings at most support sentiment to prevent a sharp crash, pulling the market up? Don't even think about it. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
This news is really no good, positive news is done but prices don't move, it's digesting the negative. Wait for non-farm payrolls and CPI #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$OKB The float hasn't moved, don't rush to pull the rod yet
Today's bearish candle isn't just the crypto world scaring itself
$BTC hit a low of 76,300, closing between 77,300–77,600. $ETH retraced to 2,390–2,430. $SOL broke below the 100 psychological level, OKB slid from 111 to 106, dropping four to five points in a single day. The fear and greed index is still in the greed zone but has clearly cooled off a bit
The market situation boils down to one thing: the 79,000–80,000 resistance above can't be broken, and 76,000 below is temporarily supported. The structure isn't broken, but these past three days haven't provided evidence of a main upward wave
Don't just focus on the crypto market for the reason behind the drop. The US-Iran conflict flared up again, oil prices rose above 90, US Treasury yields climbed, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike has risen above 66%. Crypto assets don't pay interest, so when rate hike expectations rise, capital is the first to flee them
Institutions haven't fled; they're just repositioning. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 3.5 billion in August, with slight outflows in the first two days of September, while Solana ETFs actually attracted 100 million. This is profit-taking after a rise, not an exit
Next, focus on two points: whether 76,000 can hold; and Friday's non-farm payrolls.
The float hasn't moved, don't jump in prematurely
— Fisherman
September 3, 2026
The above is a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 A coin that calls itself "USELESS" surged 2.7 times in a month and even printed its logo on a La Liga giant's jersey
I've seen coins bragging about "disrupting the industry," but have you ever seen an official coin calling itself "I am useless"?
$USELESS, a meme on Solana, has been slacking since its launch: no staking, no governance, no utility, with just one slogan — "zero utility, zero purpose, 100% vibe."
In short, it's a coin specifically mocking those projects in the crypto space that "dare to hype everything."
So what happened? It became the most surreal one in this market wave:
1 Wore the giant's jersey
The limited edition jersey of La Liga's Atlético Madrid even has the USELESS Kraken logo on the sleeve patch, just because it won a community vote. A coin that calls itself useless ended up on the jersey of a top-five league giant — the irony is too strong.
2 Korean KOLs are promoting it
The Korean KOL community is pushing it, with daily trading volume tripling. Sentiment like this is hard to stop once it starts.
3 It also has a deflationary design
Total supply is 100 trillion, with 25% burned, relying on a "buy-to-burn" mechanism, so the more you buy, the less there is.
But to be honest: the crazier this coin rises, the more cautious you should be. On-chain data shows the top 10 wallets hold 30% of the supply, whales control nearly half — in other words, it's a game for big players. If you chase in today, you might just be the counterparty to their sell-off.Iran announced missile and drone attacks on the Ali Al Salem Air Base, a US military base in Kuwait. Kuwait's air defense system intercepted for the second consecutive night, and a US military-related residential area was also attacked by drones, causing a fire. This signals a new scope of conflict: previously focused on direct US-Iran confrontation, the retaliation network is now spreading to US military-hosting countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq. The risk is extending from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf base system 😔
However, the market reaction is quite intriguing. Brent crude is around $95.2, WTI about $90.8, both slightly retreating intraday. The reason is that no new large-scale clashes between the US and Iran have been confirmed within hours, and Trump also hinted that this round of actions will not last long, so the geopolitical premium has somewhat receded.
Currently, there are two distinctly different paths: if Iran continues targeting US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to $BTC; if both sides limit strikes to military targets, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually recover, and risk aversion sentiment will cool down accordingly.
The current assessment is still preliminary. The US side reports no casualties so far, and specific damages are yet to be verified. The situation remains a highly uncertain window, price volatility may intensify, please manage risks cautiously. Divergence between funds and contract signals indicates a short-term market entering a game window
From the perspective of spot fund flows, BTC and ETH have seen large net inflows in the past 24 hours, with BTC net inflow at 404 million and ETH inflow close to 90 million, indicating short-term buying is entering the market. However, over a 7-day period, both major coins still show net fund outflows, suggesting that the current market is dominated by short-term fund games, and large-scale medium- to long-term capital has not yet returned.
An interesting divergence appears on the contract side: the overall network long-short ratio slightly favors longs, with longs accounting for 51.2%, showing a small gap between long and short forces. However, liquidation data sends an opposite signal: total liquidations in 24 hours reached 510 million, with short liquidations as high as 420 million, indicating a large number of shorts were wiped out in a short time.
Spot is buying, shorts are being liquidated, but longs have not formed an overwhelming advantage—this is a typical consolidation and shakeout pattern.
After short-term shorts exit, the market is more likely to enter a choppy tug-of-war. For longs to break upward, incremental funds need to continue increasing. If spot inflows cannot be sustained, the persistence of the rebound is questionable.
Currently, it is not suitable to chase the rally; focus on observing whether spot funds can continue to flow in and the volume situation at key price levels.
$BTC $ETH Latest ETH Analysis: Price and Funding Interpretation After the Fed Turns Dovish $BTC $ETH
⚠️ This article is for market information only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Core Macro Signal: The Fed’s “Swing Hawk” Suddenly Turns Dovish
Fed Governor Waller’s statement on September 3 became a key market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if the August inflation data continues to slow, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement directly reduced the market’s probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 48.4%.
2. Waller, previously a hawkish official, was interpreted by the market as signaling that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end. The US dollar index weakened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US tech stocks rose simultaneously.
3. The core impact of this signal on the crypto market is that funding pressure under a high interest rate environment is expected to marginally ease. ETH, as a highly elastic risk asset, is more sensitive to Fed policy than BTC.
Be cautious, cautious, and more cautious Bitcoin has reclaimed above 80,000, but this time it's different from previous rounds.
Let's look at the numbers first: current price 80,983, up nearly 5% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 76,950 to a high of 81,000, forming a textbook deep V pattern. Now the context: BTC rose 25% in August, crypto ETFs just recorded their best month this year, and tonight the US dollar weakened while the yen surged sharply, pushing BTC and gold correlation to a six-year high.
What does this indicate? This rally doesn't seem like a retail leveraged sentiment-driven move, but more like macro funds adding BTC to their "hard asset" basket. As US dollar credit loosens, gold and Bitcoin are bought together, with money reselecting store-of-value assets.
When the US dollar starts to lose trust, who do you think is the answer for the next decade? BTC's current round near 60,000 corresponds to 30,000 in 2022
and 6,000 in 2018, sharing the common feature of multiple rebounds after halving.
Ultimately, touching a decline around 0.4 looks more like the mid-stage of a bear market rather than the start of a bull market.
There are two possibilities for BTC next:
Either the rebound has ended and it will decline again,
or it will break through 83,000 and then have a final bull trap before topping out.
Many people shout bull market after a weekly breakout,
but I believe the bear market cycle has not disappeared but has been extended.
If the cycle is only extended and not changed,
then the so-called short-term "bull market" is very likely just a phase within the bear market continuation. In the $UNI order book, the heaviest long position right now isn't from signal callers, but from this address:
0x7583b5364597736a6a72c4ba61ede0a4a37ef4de
Holding a 10x long position of 400,000 UNI in the contract, with a position value of about $2.43 million and an unrealized loss of $111,700. The platform has directly tagged it with two labels: UNI's largest long position and UNI's largest long loss.
The unrealized loss itself isn't that scary, about 4.6%. What really carries information is the flow of funds — 11 receiving addresses, 9 sending addresses, and recent deposits are almost all of the same scale:
• 10-12: 493.64K USDC
• 10-11: 500.02K USDC
• 08-13: 480.80K USDC
• 07-21: 477.81K USDC
Entering in batches of the same magnitude indicates this entity isn't betting on a single candlestick but is extending the position and sustaining the viewpoint. With 10x leverage, an $111,700 unrealized loss is far from a liquidation narrative, so it now acts more like an "order book anchor": as long as this position remains, the UNI long side has a public, traceable, and sufficiently large reference point.
On-chain perpetuals differ from spot. Spot whales can stay silent, but contract whales' positions speak every day. What this position is saying now is simple — it hasn't closed #UNI yet.Trump's single remark causes oil prices to plummet, South Korea surges wildly: We need to understand the underlying liquidity thread
Trump's slight easing of rhetoric toward Iran caused oil prices to cool down a bit, and the South Korean stock market immediately surged impatiently to close higher.
Many people think the South Korean stock market's ups and downs have nothing to do with the crypto space, but this extremely sensitive rebound clearly reveals Asia's extreme hunger for macro liquidity.
South Korea relies almost 100% on crude oil imports; even a slight rise in oil prices puts significant pressure on the won exchange rate, directly cutting into corporate profits and consumer prices. When oil prices ease, pent-up risk capital immediately rushes out to seize the rebound. The same applies to the crypto market: recently, Bitcoin has been repeatedly volatile and altcoins have been bleeding daily. The fundamental macro constraint is that high oil prices block the path for inflation to fall. The retreat of oil prices essentially acts as an implicit rate cut on financing costs across the entire market.
But seasoned on-exchange traders would never treat a politician's empty talk as an anchor for a one-sided reversal.
Verbal easing of geopolitical tensions is extremely fragile; oil prices may fall today due to a single remark, but any slight friction tomorrow can cause a rebound. Before the non-farm payrolls and interest rate decisions are released, such pulse-like rebounds driven by geopolitical news often carry very high risks of a bull trap.
Understanding the true constraints crude oil imposes on liquidity, when facing such news-driven short-term volatility, are you using the rebound to deleverage and defend, or can you not resist chasing it?
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 The sharp rise is not a reversal bell, but a short squeeze tail flame. BTC from 64,000 to 79,000, ETH breaking 2400, with over 80% of long positions liquidated in 24h—a typical three-stage pattern of “short covering pump → retail chasing highs → long positions being washed out.” The drivers are the decline in long-term US Treasury yields + White House summit expectations + forced liquidation of June shorts; ETF net inflows are a relay, not ignition.
Entry is possible, but never chase the wick. True reversal is seen by three criteria: ① BTC retests 74,000–76,000, ETH retests 2300–2350 with volume contraction and stabilization; ② volume rebounds to ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days; ③ ETF net inflows for 3 consecutive days. Missing any one means a false breakout.
Daily RSI at 82 is overbought, whales are moving exchanges, chasing highs = taking the ticket of those who cut losses at 64,000 in reverse. Wait for a pullback to low longs, or a volume breakout above 80,000/2500 with right-side confirmation; anything in between is just itchy hands tax.$SPCX One of Elon Musk's nine crazy toys: Student days and Zip2
Observing Musk's academic trajectory, he early on divided the world into two systems: physics explains how everything works, economics explains how resources flow. As a teenager, he wrote Blastar, which seemed to reveal his way of thinking. He moved from South Africa to Canada, entered Queen's University, then transferred to the University of Pennsylvania. In 1995, he stayed only two days in Stanford's PhD program before turning to chase the internet wave. This doesn't prove he was born to win, but it shows a strong agency: rather than scoring high within established rules, he craved rewriting the rules. Zip2 created city guides, maps, and business directories for newspapers, essentially moving the bulky paper Yellow Pages online. In the early startup days, the brothers slept in the office and washed in public places; in 1999, Compaq still acquired Zip2 for about $307 million, with Musk receiving about $22 million. Psychologically, this success formed a strong positive reinforcement, proving to him that as long as you bet on a technological turning point, what others see as madness can turn into huge rewards. From then on, money was not an end in life for him, but more like new gear obtained after clearing a level. Zip2 also established the entrepreneurial script he repeatedly used later: find a sluggish old system, digitize it, reduce costs, then prove with the market that things don't have to be so difficult. This experience may also have become the psychological starting point for his later cross-industry ventures. The boy's first big toy was not a rocket, but an information map of an entire city. Getting ready to rock n' roll.
Almost zero chance Fed hikes in Sept.
Soft payrolls tomorrow and we see cut before yr end.
Cpi at 2 or 3 irrelevant.
Usd/yen move epic top with long way to drop.
US short rates lower support btc break up.
85k break gets us to 100k pronto.$KO $xKO Looking back at history, during World War II, Coca-Cola was incorporated into the U.S. military logistics system, becoming a special supply to boost the morale of frontline soldiers. The military regarded it as a supply to maintain soldiers' mental state; wherever the army advanced, bottling plants were set up there. War orders helped Coca-Cola complete its early global expansion and deeply tied it to American domestic cultural symbols.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday #EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance #Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Applying this to current market trading logic:
Once geopolitical conflicts or overseas military deployments occur, theoretically, there are two potential benefits:
1. Increased military logistics demand: U.S. military overseas deployments bring procurement needs for beverage supplies, opening some incremental orders;
2. Risk-averse capital preference: During turbulent situations, capital flees from high-volatility growth stocks and flows into high-dividend, essential consumer blue chips. Coca-Cola, with its strong pricing power, stable cash flow, and continuous dividends, becomes a preferred allocation choice for risk-averse capital. #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Tonight's sentiment is fomo! This rally in crypto and stocks is basically betting that the Fed will back down?
Nothing mysterious, the core is just one thing: the market thinks the Fed won't dare to raise rates in September.
Last night's initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, showing a clearly softer labor market, plus Fed Governor Waller came out dovish, saying he supports pausing rate hikes if inflation drops. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike dropped directly from 63% to around 50%. These institutional traders are betting on a shift in monetary policy and improved liquidity expectations, so they rush in first.
Look, BTC broke through 80,000 directly, ETH followed, and related stocks like Coinbase and Strategy collectively surged. Essentially, it's the same old story—macro eases a bit, risk assets get hyped.
But I have to remind you, this is a game of expectations, not a fundamental reversal.
The real test is the September 15th FOMC meeting; if inflation data doesn't cooperate then, whatever went up will come down $BTC Just now, all AI went down at the same time! There has been a lot of discussion on X about AI service anomalies. The real cause could be a technical failure, but this raises another question: If one day, AI is no longer just a tool for answering questions, but a digital entity capable of taking tasks, aligning resources, purchasing services, delivering deliverables, and managing assets, what kind of currency will they use? This concerns a change even bigger than the AI model itself: the Agent economy. If the Agent economy grows large, cryptocurrencies will gain a new use case. In this system, Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, while Ethereum and other programmable blockchains can take on the roles of settlement, contract, and collaborative infrastructure. This is not the simple logic of "AI rises as soon as it develops." It discusses another matter: when economic participants in the internet expand from "humans" to "machines," whether the existing monetary system is suitable for transactions between machines. 1. The Next Stage of AI: From Answering Questions to Completing Transactions The core model of AI we are familiar with is still "humans issue commands, AI completes tasks." You ask a question, and it gives an answer. You request to write a proposal, and it generates it. You ask to modify code, and it modifies the code. The change brought by an agent lies in the complete action chain. After receiving a target, an Agent can break down the task, call the tool, find services, mobilize other agents, deliver results, and so onBTC narrative iteration🔥The argument continues to strengthen: Bitcoin is no longer just "digital gold"
From Reuters Market Perspective: The investment logic of Bitcoin is undergoing a qualitative change and is no longer limited to the single narrative of "digital gold."
As traditional banks and mainstream investment platforms continue to open compliant access channels for BTC, Bitcoin is gradually being integrated into the traditional financial system, transforming from a marginal alternative asset into one of the institutional asset allocation options.
A very meaningful point: Bitcoin itself has not changed the rules; rather, Wall Street is actively adapting to Bitcoin⚡.
It is not crypto projects conforming to the old financial system's rules; instead, ETFs, brokerages, and asset management institutions are continuously remodeling their products and processes to accommodate this set of native on-chain assets. Institutional funds are entering through spot ETFs, and traditional financial advisors are beginning to include BTC in client portfolios—this is a structural change.
Of course, the grand narrative must face the immediate macro test.
Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the most important employment report before the FOMC decision (#LastNFPBeforeFOMC).
Even if the long-term logic continues to strengthen, short-term market trends will still be influenced by employment, wages, and rate cut expectations. The strength or weakness of the Nonfarm data will directly disturb the US dollar and US Treasury yields, causing significant volatility for BTC.
A positive long-term narrative ≠ a short-term one-way rise. Institutional acceptance represents the opening of long-term space, but trading still cannot ignore macro data risks and must maintain proper position management. A Word Carries Great Weight
Waller spoke tonight, and I felt like I heard the "real Fed Chair" speaking.
Key points:
· In the past few months, signs of inflation decline have been seen, consistent with the model's prediction that inflation would peak in summer.
· Giving inflation a chance is not inaction, but "taking responsibility."
· AI improves productivity and output, not inflation.
· The market needs communication, and I believe the right communication is to transparently tell the market the Fed's model framework based on "economic logic"—there's nothing to hide.
· The Fed has a clear view of the current economic data; we are the "model student." We do not misunderstand the data; we fully understand its meaning.
Well, Waller's speech made us feel the "familiar flavor" is back—pragmatic, not mysterious, reflecting economic data truthfully, no need to guess riddles from the Fed.
US Treasury yields plunged, the 10-year dropped from 4.78% to 4.72%, gold broke above 4520, and US stocks rose more than 1%.
In plain terms, assets are broadly rising.
Tonight marks an important turning point; market expectations for rate hikes are starting to retreat. The most dangerous moment is over. For US Treasuries and tech stocks, it's time to wait for gains and enjoy the profits.
Recently, many companies in the US software sector have hit new highs. Tonight, SNOW rose 20 centimeters. The software ETF (IGV) we analyzed before, or Microsoft, which has good monetization, are worth continued attention.
Bitcoin's recent altcoin rally has started; Hood and MSTR are also rising. This is a very good sign of the early bull market. Friends who haven't paid attention can start watching for right-side opportunities.
Tomorrow's big nonfarm payrolls report is not highly anticipated because Waller said tonight the average is 60,000 and won't drop sharply. He probably saw the data in advance; last time he also leaked hints before the PCE.
So the next important data should be next week's CPI. I expect the downward trend to continue, firmly closing the door on a September rate hike.
Wishing everyone plenty of profits!
The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice. Please be aware of risks.Violently reclaiming 80,000! $BTC surged 4% overnight—is this a rebound recovery or the start of a new rally?
The crypto market, silent for days, suddenly exploded.
$BTC surged over 4% in a single day, firmly holding above the 80,000 USD mark; $ETH followed suit, briefly hitting 2,484 USD, with the entire market showing green.
Bullish sentiment was instantly ignited, and voices of "bull market restart" and "aiming for new highs" flooded the scene again.
But the bigger the bullish candle, the more we need to stay calm: is this rise a recovery rebound after overselling, or the beginning of a new main upward wave?
1. This surge is not just random speculation by funds
This rally is not driven by random in-market funds pumping prices; the core driver is a shift in macro expectations.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller recently released dovish signals, directly cooling the market’s ongoing rate hike panic.
Previously, the market was overshadowed by repeated inflation concerns, with investors generally fearing the Fed would maintain high interest rates or even restart hikes, causing a strong dollar and high US Treasury yields that suppressed risk assets.
With this dovish signal, the dollar index and US Treasury yields both plunged, effectively opening a short-term recovery window for global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Simply put: easing rate hike expectations encouraged funds to enter the market.
2. The 80,000 mark hides the truest market battle
The 80,000 USD level has never been just a number.
Recently, the market has repeatedly tugged and pulled around this range, surging and retreating multiple times—essentially a large-scale shakeout:
• Short-term traders with weak positions repeatedly stop out and surrender chips amid volatility
• Long-term holders endure the frustrating fluctuations and finally await the rally.
When the price truly stands above 80,000, another force accelerates entry—those who missed out earlier see the rally take off, anxiety rises, and they chase the price, further fueling the rebound’s momentum.
But we must be clear: 80,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, not the final stop for the rise.
Above this level, a large amount of previously trapped positions still accumulate. The chase driven by FOMO is often fierce but questionable in sustainability. Any slight disturbance could cause a pullback and renewed volatility.
3. Don’t call the bull market just because of one big bullish candle
Every time a big bullish candle appears, the comment sections instantly fill with "bull market start" and "aiming for 100,000".
But the harsh truth of trading is: no bull market has ever started from a single official speech or one big bullish candle.
A shift in macro expectations is a long process, not defined by one statement. Today can be dovish, tomorrow hawkish; today can rise 4%, tomorrow can fall back.
Underlying market constraints remain: Middle East geopolitical risks are still brewing, inflation stickiness hasn’t disappeared, and the Fed’s policy shift is far from confirmed.
It’s too early to declare a "new bull market start" now.
More likely: a short-term recovery window has opened, but volatility and fluctuations remain the norm.
4. The safest current strategy
Facing this rebound, avoid two extremes:
❌ Blindly bearish, fighting the trend and trying to top-pick;
❌ Getting overheated, going all-in, mistaking the rebound for a bull market.
The only correct approach: follow the trend and prioritize risk control.
• Acknowledge the short-term upward trend and participate in the recovery accordingly, but never chase higher or add positions recklessly;
• Always set stop losses for every trade, control position size, and never bet all chips on a single move;
• Near the dense trapped position zone above, take profits in batches, don’t be greedy for the last leg of the rise;
• If the price falls back below key support, exit decisively without stubbornly holding or fighting.
Simply put: respect the current rebound and be wary of reversal risks.
Final thoughts
The most common time to lose money in trading is never during a decline, but during a big rally.
People are cautious when prices fall but greedy when prices soar, often ignoring risks and mistaking rebounds for reversals and recoveries for bull markets.
BTC returning to 80,000 is good—it opens space for short-term recovery.
But it’s not the end, nor a guarantee of a bull market.
Markets always rise hesitantly and end in euphoria.
The hotter the market, the more you must keep your own pace and control your position size.
After all, in this market, survival is always more important than making quick money.
Do you think this wave is a rebound recovery or a bull market start? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Institutions are not buying crypto; they are picking Bitcoin
ETF turned green again, but don't rush to write "faith is back." First, look at the three columns beside it: ETH, SOL, XRP, which were flowing out that day. Institutions are not buying crypto. They are picking Bitcoin
Eastern US September 1: Spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about 236.5 million, the largest single-day sell-off since late July. Eastern US September 2: Reversed to a net inflow of about 101.15 million (common secondary market summary: IBIT about +115.45 million, GBTC about -56.21 million). The green and red flip in one day is more honest than slogans.
More glaring contrast on the same day: Spot ETFs tracking Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all showed net outflows in public reports. The XRP side had a clear outflow of about 7.2 million. So this is not "digital assets being favored together," but "cash returning first to the BTC shelf."
August BTC ETF absorbed about 3.52 billion, the strongest single month in 2026. September started like a whip: first a large outflow, then a small inflow, still not back to the August daily average of about 160 million. The price hovered around 76,000–78,000 (as of September 2–3 secondary market). Don't mistake a single green day for a trend revival.
Category selection ≠ narrative recovery $BTC $BTC surged past $81K, with about $445M liquidated across the network in 24 hours, predominantly shorts. The market shifted from high-level consolidation to an accelerated phase dominated by short squeezes. 1. $BTC rose about 5.3% in 24 hours, breaking above the $81K mark and hitting a new high in this rebound; however, the 7-day increase is only 1.1%, indicating this is a one-time release after narrow consolidation rather than a trend acceleration. 2. Approximately $445M was liquidated network-wide in 24 hours, including $196M in $BTC liquidations, with shorts accounting for $184M (about 94%). Hyperliquid saw about $42M in single-session short liquidations. This rally's fuel is short covering rather than new spot buying, with on-chain and exchange data aligned. 3. OKX / $OKB: Today +2.7%, price around $109.8, 24-hour range $102–$111.7, volume about $30.5M. 4. Polymarket officially launched perpetual contracts covering crypto, stocks, and commodities, with up to 20x leverage; the prediction market platform is entering the derivatives space, expanding on-chain trading scenarios into traditional categories. 5. Metaplanet increased holdings by 1,007 $BTC, reserves surpassing 20,000 BTC, and Capital B is also planning to add 376 BTC during financing; treasury companies remain active above $80KWant to go long, wasn't the plot already spoiled in advance? Why insist on being the fuel?
This round of rise was already mentioned last night, going long, Bitcoin pre-set wave at 765 targeting 810, which has been fully realized, a full 4500 points, Ethereum at 2375 targeting 2510-60, currently the high point is 2519, also over a hundred points.
Then, this morning gave a long strategy again, adjusted the target to 810 in the afternoon in time, and kindly reminded not to stubbornly short today, or else be ready to be liquidated.
The words have been made very clear, the direction is also clear, look for yourself, how many times have the tips been given? If you just listen once, you wouldn't be among those liquidated.
Small losses are not scary, what’s scary is that you keep holding on stubbornly, and eventually your account is gone. If Wukong can give you a glimmer of hope, would you reach out for help?"The crypto market has seen a strong rally, with $BTC climbing from a low of $76,957 to $81,367, a 24-hour increase of 4.70%; $ETH also rebounded strongly from around $2,360 to above $2,510, surging over 5% simultaneously. The rapid rebound after hitting a high resistance level demonstrates the resilience of the bulls.
The core catalyst for this round of market movement comes from the macro level. The latest US initial jobless claims increased more than expected, signaling a cooling labor market; Federal Reserve Governor Waller subsequently stated that if inflation cools in August, it would support keeping interest rates unchanged. As a result, the market's bet on a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%. Meanwhile, the US-Iran military conflict continues to escalate, pushing geopolitical risk premiums higher. Expectations of looser monetary policy combined with safe-haven demand have driven Bitcoin back above the $80,000 mark after several days.
Looking ahead, several key variables need attention. Technically, the $81,000-$82,000 range has repeatedly been a resistance zone for BTC, while ETH faces strong resistance around $2,560-$2,630. The short-term RSI has entered the overbought area, indicating a need for a pullback to digest gains. In terms of liquidity, the current order book depth is very shallow, meaning that any new catalyst could significantly amplify price volatility. The key support level for BTC is at $78,000, while ETH's short-term bull lifeline lies around $2,350-$2,360.
The market will next focus on the US August CPI data to be released on September 11—if inflation exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations may return; if the data is moderate, the rebound trend is likely to continue. The core of the bulls vs. bears battle remains the tug-of-war between macro policy expectations and market liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 I now lean more toward the view that the Fed may not continue raising rates in September. The next key variable is U.S. employment data. If nonfarm payrolls cool significantly on Friday, the market may re-bet on rate cuts before year-end, and short-term U.S. Treasury yields may come under pressure. Meanwhile, inflation figures themselves may not be the only focus. Compared to a single CPI data, the market is more concerned about: 👉 Will the Fed shift to a more accommodative policy in the coming months? 👉 Will short-term U.S. interest rates continue to decline? 👉 Has the dollar entered a phase of weakness? The foreign exchange market is also worth watching. USD/JPY has recently fallen rapidly, the yen has shown a clear rebound, and market expectations for further tightening by the Bank of Japan are also rising. If U.S. short-term interest rates continue to fall and dollar pressure increases, risk assets may find new liquidity support. 🔥 Key BTC positions: $78K → $82K: Short-term breakout range $85K → $90K: Next phase target 🚀 If $90K is effectively broken, the market may further challenge $98K–$105K Of course, if the nonfarm payroll far exceeds expectations and pushes rate hike expectations higher, BTC could also be suppressed again. The real focus now is not just whether CPI is 2% or 3%, but when will liquidity shift again? #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Fed #NFP #FOMC #USDJPY #RaSeptember 3 BTC Full-Day Summary
Bitcoin experienced a typical V-shaped rebound throughout the day. During the Asian session, the price dipped with momentum, hitting a low of $76,400, which was close to the average holding cost of active on-chain investors ($76,350), receiving buying support. Afterwards, the price oscillated and recovered throughout the day. In the US session, driven by macro news, it accelerated upward, consecutively breaking through the $78,000, $79,000, and $80,000 levels, reaching a high of $81,188, and finally closing above $81,000. The candlestick data shows that the BOLL lower band ($77,018) and upper band ($81,683) precisely framed the intraday trading range.
The core catalyst came from Federal Reserve Governor Waller's dovish signal, indicating a preference to keep rates unchanged in September, with the probability of a rate hike falling from 63% to 60%. The US dollar came under pressure, and risk assets collectively rebounded. This was compounded by risk-off sentiment due to escalating US-Iran military tensions and expectations around the SEC regulatory bill vote, creating a resonance of multiple factors. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $217 million that day, also providing incremental funds for the market.
Technically, the daily bullish trend remains intact, but there is obvious resistance near $82,000 (a dense supply area for long-term holders). The short-term support has moved up to the $78,500–$79,000 range, with stronger support still around $76,200. The intraday volatility was nearly $5,000, with significantly increased volume. The subsequent trend requires close attention to the September 4 non-farm payroll data $BTC's sudden late-night surge is ruthless, shooting straight up to the 81,000 high in less than two hours! Watching ETH and OKB follow suit with collective excitement, the screen full of green is truly intoxicating.
The mastermind behind this rally is the Fed's Waller. The old man’s remark, "If inflation cools down, we’ll hold steady," instantly cut the panic over a September rate hike in half. Once the macro tightening spell loosened, hot money immediately sniffed the opportunity and rushed in.
The pause in rate hikes is indeed sweet, but don’t forget, tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls are the "ultimate judgment" waiting ahead, which is the real key to the market’s future.
Although this surge looks great, the biggest risk is "buying the rumor, selling the fact." Such violent pumps often come fast and go fast. At the current levels, it’s advised to hold back and not get carried away; chasing highs is no joke in terms of risk. Pre-Market Thoughts — 3 Sep 2026 Yields retraced roughly 5bps across the curve, while oil also cooled off. US markets saw weak price action overnight, but there were early signs of seller exhaustion across semis and related names. $NVDA led the move, potentially helped by reports that the company told JPM it could have delivered 100% revenue growth if not for supply constraints. Heading into Asia, markets initially rallied nicely. Then around 12PM HKT, rumors emerged that the US could be preparShorted $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payroll tonight!
Just now, $ETH gave me a comfortable short position near 2510, and the position is already entered.
Why dare to short at this level?
$ETH has rebounded continuously to above 2500, but this level clearly has resistance. If it continues to surge in the short term, first observe whether the 2520-2550 area can truly hold.
The real big variable tonight is not ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll.
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US will release August non-farm employment data.
The market currently expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1.
What’s more noteworthy is that the leading data is not particularly strong: August ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; July non-farm payroll actually decreased by 23,000.
So if tonight’s non-farm payroll is significantly below expectations, the market may re-trade the logic of "weaker employment → Fed policy shift," supporting risk assets, and ETH might see a quick rally.
Conversely, if the non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected, combined with no rise in the unemployment rate, the rate cut expectations may cool further, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and ETH will need to be cautious about continued short-term pressure.
So my short near 2510 this time is not a blind bearish bet but a preemptive short-term play.
My thinking is simple:
Below 2500 → continue to watch the bears.
2470-2450 → watch the strength of the first pullback.
If it reclaims 2520 with sustained volume → admit the short position was wrong.
After the non-farm data is released tonight, whether up or down, first watch the initial sharp move, then decide the next step.
In this kind of data-driven market, the biggest taboo is chasing after a big bullish or bearish candle immediately.
My $ETH short near 2510 is already in place; tonight we’ll see if the non-farm payroll gives an opportunity.
In data-driven markets, make money on what you understand.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Do you know why it's rallying? Just three words: repricing
It's not that things are broken, it's that money has become more expensive.
The US Treasury yield has hit 4.8%, so putting money in the bank earns a guaranteed 4.8% in a year. Gold $XAU, silver, Bitcoin $BTC, tech stocks—whether you have a story or not, they all get discounted first.
Why are oil prices still rising?
The US and Iran are still attacking each other, Trump says he's ready to strike again anytime, and shipping through the strait remains unsafe. Now $CL WTI is at 91, Brent is approaching 96.
This is a geopolitical premium, moving opposite to interest rate logic.
Why are gold and silver rebounding?
The ADP small nonfarm payrolls surprised—only 38,000 added in August, below expectations. The probability of a rate hike dropped from 67% to 62%, giving gold and silver a breather. But tonight's nonfarm payrolls will decide life or death, with an expectation of 58,000.
Good data → rate hike expectations retreat → gold and silver continue to fall
Poor data → rate hike expectations drop → gold and silver bounce back
(Please take notes, there might be a quiz next time)
Why is Bitcoin rallying?
Short term it rose from 80,727 to 81,367, up 0.6%. With the US and Iran clashing, BTC is being bought as "digital gold." But above 80,000, 1.05 million BTC are pressing down, so breaking through isn't that easy.
Japan is even more intense
The probability of a rate hike in September is 94%, and Kazuo Ueda himself said a rate hike is possible. The world's cheapest borrowing place is about to close.
Summary: Oil prices are waiting for geopolitical tensions to cool, gold and silver are waiting for the nonfarm payrolls, BTC is waiting to break through 80,000, and everyone is waiting for the Fed's decision on September 16.
Wait for me to release data before tonight's nonfarm payrolls $FIL This rebound is indeed quite interesting.
The overall market is still fluctuating, but FIL has risen 15% against the trend, with short positions liquidated over $1.54 million in a single day. The market is once again pricing Filecoin as a "decentralized data layer."
Why the increase?
On one hand, AI training data demand is truly exploding—Filecoin's storage utilization rate has climbed from single digits two years ago to 36%, with 925 clients storing over 1000TB of data. Since the Onchain Cloud mainnet launched in January this year, FVM lock-up has further tightened short-term supply.
The bigger highlight is the first halving in October. Block rewards will be cut from 32 to 16, and the annual inflation rate will drop from 18% to about 7%. The market always speculates on expectations months in advance, and now is the window period.
Volume is also cooperating—24-hour trading volume is about $250 million, with a clear increase in activity.
But don't forget the other side of FIL: there is still 16%-18% new supply added over the past year, and the largest historical drawdown is close to 99.7%. This asset has historically caused many losses.
In the short term, around 0.78 is support, and 0.86 is previous high resistance. If it can hold above 0.8, there is room to rise; if 0.78 is effectively broken, the AI + halving narrative will have to pause first.
So I tend to treat FIL as a highly elastic position in the AI + storage sector—take advantage of the momentum when there is a market, but don't talk about faith when there isn't one. #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 Market news: Saudi Arabia has set the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil shipped to the United States in October at a premium of $4.60 per barrel over the ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index) benchmark.
Quick science: ASCI is the spot index for sour crude oil in the US Gulf of Mexico. Saudi Arabia's long-term contract crude oil shipments to the US are priced based on this index. An increase in the premium indicates Saudi Arabia's optimistic outlook on North American crude oil spot demand.
Signal interpretation
1. The rising OSP premium indicates that Saudi Arabia assesses US refinery purchasing demand as strong, the US Gulf crude spot market supply and demand is tight, refinery operations remain at a good level, and refineries are willing to accept higher import premiums.
2. This is Saudi Aramco's monthly official long-term contract pricing, directly reflecting the real spot market conditions, and indirectly influencing WTI and Brent futures markets. An increase in the premium is generally a bullish signal for oil prices.
3. However, it is important to distinguish that this pricing is only for the US region and must be considered alongside Saudi Arabia's OSP quotes for Asia and Europe, OPEC+ production cut compliance, US crude inventories, and tonight's nonfarm payroll data for a comprehensive judgment.
Market impact logic
✅ If nonfarm payroll data shows resilience, a stronger US dollar may partially offset the spot crude oil bullishness;
✅ If nonfarm payroll data misses expectations, a weaker US dollar combined with Saudi spot price hikes may amplify bullish sentiment in oil prices;
⚠️ Geopolitical conflicts, rig counts, and inventory data remain key variables disrupting oil prices.
Objective reminder: An increase in spot premiums does not equate to a unilateral rise in oil prices; long-term contract pricing reflects monthly terms. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls are the final major labor-market signal before the next FOMC meeting. Market consensus is around 55K, while I’m expecting a weaker print near 35K.
My scenarios:
🔴 Below 40K — 40%
Major miss → rate hike could be pushed to October.
🟡 40K–80K — 35%
More balanced result → CPI and Fed commentary become the deciding factors.
🟢 Above 80K — 25%
Stronger jobs → hike expectations rise, and $BTC could fall toward $75K.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50-point expansion threshold and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The policy decision in September may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农🟢 Special Coverage: NFP Data – The Last Stop Before the Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting Tomorrow at 20:30 All eyes are on the release of the non-farm payrolls data, which is currently the most important indicator of market trend. 📊 Analytical reading of the forecast: The market consensus is currently stable at 55,000 jobs added. However, given the overall negativity in the supporting economic indicators, I personally lean towards a weaker scenario around 35,000 jobs. Estimates from the market are often overly optimistic (as was the case in the July data when the forecast was more likely to be higher).Trump is still powerful!
One sentence can move the entire market!
So amazing!
Long $ETH position taken at 2357
Currently floating profit of 11171U
Do not close the long position for now
Just sweep the liquidity above once, then you can withdraw
This round of rally is not all because of Trump's remarks
Waller signals that rates may remain unchanged in September
US stocks and crypto are warming up together
Trump is responsible for igniting
Rate expectations are responsible for pushing funds back
ETH has pulled back near 2500
Intraday gain over 4%
Rushed from around 2370 to 2515
2515 to 2550 is the first resistance ahead
After breaking through, next is 2600
2600 with volume taken
Liquidity above 2700 will truly open
However, on September 2, ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of 48.2 million USD
Indicating that although the price is strong
Institutional funds have not fully synchronized
Long positions can continue to be held
This position is not suitable for recklessly adding hundredfold leverage
$BTC has surged back above 80000
Intraday high has already touched above 81300
On September 2, spot ETF net inflow was 101.1 million USD
Funds that flowed out the previous day are being replenished
The real big resistance ahead is between 82700 and 83000
Breaking through here
The market will reprice the 90000 expectation
Falling back below 79000
This round of sentiment rally will be discounted
$SNDK did not follow the market rally today
Intraday decline about 1%
Short-term support near 1510
1555 to 1600 remains a resistance area
But fundamentals have not suddenly worsened
Latest quarterly revenue 8.97 billion USD
Sequential growth 51%
Full-year revenue growth 175%
Data center business growth 437%
Company also added a 14 billion USD buyback plan
Currently more like high-level consolidation digesting chips
Only after reclaiming 1560
Is there room to continue pushing upward
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance 🚀 $BTC | GETTING READY FOR THE NEXT MOVE
I’m leaning toward no Fed hike in September.
If tomorrow’s payroll data comes in soft, the market could start pricing in a rate cut before year-end.
CPI at 2% or 3% may matter less than the broader rate outlook.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY move looks like it may have already peaked, with plenty of room for a reversal.
Lower U.S. short-term rates could give $BTC the fuel to break higher.
🔥 $85K breaks → $100K could come fast.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC # Not a complete reversal! This wave is a short squeeze tail wave + macro resonance⚠️
Many mistakenly believe the market reversal is confirmed, but in reality, it's the tail end of short squeeze combined with macro expectations driving it. $BTC surged to 81,300, $ETH rose above 2500, but both retreated from highs on August 23. 24h long liquidations account for 80%, totaling $880 million, indicating the chasing buyers are being shaken out.
Sources of the rise: decline in long-term US Treasury yields, White House summit expectations, and forced liquidation of over $3 billion in shorts triggering passive buying, not continuous spot inflows. The ETF net inflow of $1.1 billion is a relay, not the ignition of the market.
Two entry conditions, choose one; avoid blindly chasing highs:
1. Pullback to low longs: BTC 74,000-76,000, ETH 2300-2350 with volume contraction and stabilization, light long positions, stop loss 1.5% below.
2. Right-side follow-up: solid close above BTC 80,000, ETH 2500, with volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days before participating.
Daily RSI at 82 is severely overbought; a whale transferred 7,700 BTC to exchanges in 3 days. Chasing the bullish candle directly risks catching the top; rapid rallies without pullbacks are likely false breakouts. Waiting for a pullback can reduce costs by 5-8%. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 I am Cige. Tonight at 8:30, the August nonfarm payrolls, the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC.
ADP has already given the answer: private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January. The Beige Book also said that 10 of the 12 districts showed only moderate growth, with employment growth slowing. Data is cooling down, but CME shows a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September. On the inflation side, core PCE remains at 3.3%, with 54% of the 178 PCE components rising more than 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is signaling cooling, inflation is still rising, and the market cannot price unilaterally.
Nonfarm payroll expectations are very divided. Reuters survey expects an increase of 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC expect 80,000. The difference in expectations is the source of volatility; any miss on either side will cause a strong reaction.
If nonfarm payrolls are below 58,000, rate hike expectations will be extinguished, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 80,000. If nonfarm payrolls exceed 80,000, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, BTC will continue to be under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000. Don't bet on the data; wait for it to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH $SOL This is quite interesting. Let's first look at the data: This year, the US Treasury yield rose by 58 basis points, but the US dollar index only increased by 0.9%, barely moving. According to the traditional script, when yields go up, the dollar should take off accordingly, but this time it didn't keep up. So the logic has changed. Previously, people thought high yields meant buying dollars, but now the market is starting to think high yields mean greater fiscal pressure, so the dollar is actuallEveryone tells you: halving landing + continuous ETF net inflows → Bitcoin directly hits new highs, the main bull market wave fully opens the door.
The reality is: in the 83,000 to 86,000 range, nearly $3 billion of high-leverage long positions have already been liquidated, and the 90-day correlation between $BTC and US tech stocks is actually rising. The so-called "independent hard asset market" is not as solid as everyone thinks.
This is not a drill. On September 4, just after breaking the 80,000 mark, top market makers immediately placed a large sell order of 15,000 BTC at 80,800, instantly wiping out one-third of the long positions chasing the high. Wall Street asset managers openly stated that at the current position they only reduce floating profits and do not add new positions, while retail community long positions have surged to 87%, with almost everyone fully invested, waiting for a breakdown.
Bitcoin dropped directly from the intraday high of 80,900 to 79,100, with $800 million long positions forcibly liquidated in less than two hours.
What’s the most ironic? The bull market trend is clearly on the table, yet you go all-in with leverage expecting to hit 86,000, only to be washed out and liquidated first.
Everyone says that only dying longs make big money in a bull market, but no one tells you that every key resistance level in a bull market is a liquidation trap tailor-made for those chasing highs.
In the past month, whales transferred out 120,000 BTC above 75,000, and most of the chips didn’t go into new institutional pockets but flowed entirely into retail accounts on exchanges. The so-called "institutions continuously bottom-fishing" is essentially whales using the bull market consensus to distribute chips to those chasing highs at the top. 86,000 is not a new high starting point; it’s clearly their best hunting ground for mass harvesting high-leverage longs.
Next, remember three iron rules when watching the market: don’t go all-in chasing longs in the 80,000-82,000 range; daily spot net inflows under 10,000 BTC mean all breakouts are fake; wait for a pullback to the 77,000-79,000 support range to build positions in batches, avoiding the liquidation pool above 83,000, which doubles your winning rate; once the 75,000 defense level is effectively broken, immediately reduce positions unconditionally, don’t hold expecting a "quick rebound."
You think this is the stage of the bull market where you can blindly win by holding, but the ingrained "dying long" knowledge will ultimately become the scythe that cuts you off.
$ETH @米花Lilac_OKX #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The $CORE project team is playing word games. They say they are burning the amount of tokens minted beyond the 2.1 billion supply, not the amount within the 2.1 billion supply. At first glance, it might seem like they are burning tokens within the 2.1 billion supply. It should be noted that the amount minted this time is definitely not less than 150 million tokens, probably over 200 million. Previously, the circulating supply on exchanges seemed to be just over 1.2 billion tokens.