Orbit Post Sitemap
$HYPE hits an all-time high of $82, and a big short is about to be squeezed dry
OKX market data shows that HYPE broke through $80 today to set a new all-time high, reaching a peak of 81.7, currently trading above 80, up nearly 8% intraday, and up 36% over the past 7 days.
1. The most exciting drama is on-chain: a short whale holding 685,700 HYPE shorts valued at over $56 million is facing an unrealized loss approaching $20 million, with a total loss exceeding $70 million over three months. The liquidation price is $101.16. The corpse of this whale is the best fuel for the bulls.
2. Double ignition from news: Trump announced plans to push Hyperliquid into the US market, combined with a market-wide short squeeze, the narrative for the leading on-chain contract is fully charged. Above the new high, there is no trapped position, it's a pure vacuum zone.
3. My judgment: the liquidation price of 101 is the bulls' target; the rally is unlikely to end before that is hit. But a 36% rise in 7 days is too steep, a pullback to 75-78 for a better entry is more comfortable. Those who chase the high with full positions are just carrying others' gains, be good and listen to your sister. Second wave: ETF funds are pouring in wildly.
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $2.61 billion this week, marking the strongest single-week performance since October last year. On August 20 alone, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.61 billion. Institutions are buying with real money.
Third wave: Macro support.
The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of Treasury repurchases, with market expectations for a decline in Treasury yields, causing funds to flow out of the bond market. Gold rose 5% this week, and Bitcoin, as "digital gold," naturally took off as well.
But don’t let FOMO cloud your judgment
The market is strong, but risks are significant.
Although Bitcoin’s weekly K-line has risen above the 20-week moving average for the first time in 12 weeks, the daily "golden cross" has not fully formed yet—there is still a $4,436 technical price gap between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Bitfinex analysts also warn that "a rebound driven by short squeeze usually has questionable sustainability."
Also, a few things to watch on August 23:
· Binance is restricting trading with 11 crypto platforms starting today, including HTX, EXMO, etc. Compliance cleanup continues.
· BounceBit Chain suspended block production due to system failure and is undergoing a chain upgrade today.
· The SEC is soliciting public comments on Cboe’s proposal for 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Leveraged products are double-edged swords; don’t treat them as long-term tools.
A few practical words
This rally is a triple resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + sentiment bottom." But after a surge, a correction is inevitable—don’t let FOMO lead you by the nose. Shorts have been mostly cleared out; next, it depends on whether the bulls can continue to absorb the supply.
Also, although XRP and SOL being classified as commodities is a big positive, the CLARITY Act procedural vote is not until September 15—everything is still uncertain until then.
The market always rewards the prepared and punishes the impulsive.
Did you make money this week? Share in the comments.
$ETH $BTC $DOGE #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC 🔥 After BTC climbed above 77,000, the biggest risk now is not a drop, but the "chasing the rally" sentiment!
I checked the OKX market today; BTC has returned above $77,000, and ETH is also strengthening in sync.
But right now, I’m actually reluctant to chase longs directly.
My judgment is simple 👇
1️⃣ BTC
Around $77,000 has become a new short-term battleground between bulls and bears.
If it continues with volume and holds above $78,000, there could be further upside potential.
But if it rallies then falls back near $76,000, I’d be more inclined to see it as a false breakout.
2️⃣ ETH
ETH is currently following BTC’s strength, but the short-term gains are already considerable.
So if BTC keeps breaking out, I’ll first watch whether ETH can also increase volume in sync, rather than chasing ETH alone.
If BTC consolidates, ETH remains strong, and altcoin volumes start to pick up, this kind of market often deserves more attention than BTC rising alone.
📌 My own trading approach:
Don’t chase the first big green candle.
Break key levels → wait for pullback confirmation → then consider.
Break key support → wait and see.
What I fear most now is not missing out, but buying heavily at the peak of sentiment.
What do you think? Will BTC break $78,000 first tonight, or pull back to $76,000 first?
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC is down 38% from the cycle top after 320 days.
Comparing that to prior cycles, the drawdown is still shallow.
2017-18 hit -83%.
2021-22 hit -76%.
Not calling a bottom here. But the difference is hard to ignore.This wave of the crypto market rally has directly driven new capital inflows. This week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $1.92 billion. Bitcoin has risen over 23% in the past 3 days, with about 53,000 BTC flowing into trading platforms, of which 17,800 BTC were transferred into Binance. The 17,800 BTC inflow into Binance all came from short-term holders with positions held for less than a day. Long-term holders did not transfer BTC. This is the largest BTC inflow into Binance since February 2026. Starting from 13:00 on August 22, the overall crypto market, led by $BTC, suddenly dropped. Is this drop caused by short positions? No! Most holders at this point were holding long positions, but due to lower liquidity on weekends compared to weekdays, once a large order takes profits and exits, it causes a sharp price drop, triggering long position liquidations. Long positions are passively sold, causing further price declines. $1.3 billion was liquidated in 24 hours. During the drop, Maji was very active today, continuously increasing his holdings, currently at a loss of -34.77%. His ETH and HYPE positions are profitable, but Bitcoin has suffered more losses. Overall, market sentiment still looks bullish, but there will be more and more spikes. Pay attention to position control and timely profit-taking. As of 00:30 on 08/23, the top capital inflows in the first hour are: 1. $BTC｜Capital inflow +74.891 million 2. $ETH｜Capital inflow +34.669 million 3. $ZEC｜Capital inflow +15.54Will $TRUMP rise or fall? Here's my analysis
There is a possibility of a short-term impulse rebound, but it's very difficult to return to the early historical highs of tens of dollars; long-term pressure is significant.
It is a typical political meme coin, with no business profits, relying entirely on news and sentiment hype.
Under what circumstances will there be a short-term pump (small rebound)?
1. Major positive news appears
If Trump makes a major public speech, there are hot topics related to his campaign, or there is positive progress in US crypto legislation, fan sentiment FOMO entry can cause a rapid short-term surge, with gains of tens of percent possible.
Characteristics: Mostly event-driven impulse moves; once the news hype fades, it easily falls back, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.
2. Strong Bitcoin market rally
In a BTC bull market, the entire altcoin sector generally rises, which will bring TRUMP to rebound in sync.
Core hidden risks suppressing sustained bull market potential
1. Highly concentrated token holdings with continuous unlocking selling pressure
Related parties hold 80% of total tokens, with an unlocking schedule continuing until 2028. Tokens unlock daily, allowing large holders to sell and dump anytime, creating long-term selling pressure overhead. Historically, many large holders fled at highs, causing heavy losses for millions of ordinary wallets.
2. Regulatory risk looming
US congressional proposals include clauses restricting public officials from issuing tokens; once investigations start or restrictive policies are introduced, the coin price will suffer heavy blows, possibly delisting from exchanges and liquidity drying up.
3. Hype has significantly declined
The price peaked at $75, now down nearly 98% from the high. Early frenzy has faded; relying solely on news can only produce short impulse moves, making it hard to replicate the original massive rally.
4. Positive news fulfillment often leads to price drops
Often when events actually materialize, it triggers profit-taking and sell-offs. Previous large rallies and dinners saw price drops after positive news was realized.
Two realistic scenarios
1. Scenario 1: News-driven short-term pump
Hot events cause a rebound; but as hype fades, most cases see a pullback, making sustained highs difficult. Suitable only for very short-term speculation; ordinary investors risk getting trapped.
2. Scenario 2: Continued slow decline
Without new major hot topics, ongoing large holder unlocking and selling, regulatory negatives, and a bearish Bitcoin market, the price will keep hitting new lows.
Practical advice for ordinary people
1. No one can predict if or when it will pump; even if it rebounds, volatility is extremely fierce, with wild swings causing leveraged positions to liquidate and lose principal quickly.
2. No legal protection domestically; if the platform has issues, your funds have no legal recourse.
3. Meme coin speculation is essentially gambling on news and sentiment, not normal investing, and is unsuitable for ordinary retail investors. ZEC up 20x in one year, BCH and ETC reviving, SOL, UNI, and AAVE all moving together, even Meme like WIF and TRUMP are being fueled by capital — the altcoin season has indeed arrived, and it's blooming everywhere, not a solo act. But the real signal is not "rise," it's "rotation": ETH catching up and breaking above 2500, money overflowing from BTC into privacy coins and forks, then spreading to public chains and DeFi, and finally even Meme coins can catch the wave. This sequence running smoothly is what truly defines altcoin season. The only exception is ZEC — Grayscale submitted an ETF amendment, igniting it themselves, not relying on overflow. Criteria for judgment: ① BTC stabilizes its structure (prerequisite); ② ETH continues to outperform BTC (confirmation of capital overflow); ③ L1s like SOL lead with volume growth (risk appetite expands). After these three steps, the small-cap window truly opens. We are currently at the third step, confirming altcoin season. Three major observation sectors: L1 to watch SOL/SUI/APT ecosystem strength; DeFi to watch AAVE/UNI, price rise plus activity rebound is the real signal; infrastructure LINK/ARB is the most stable. Risk warning: When the entire sector rallies and the whole network cheers, that's also the most dangerous time — altcoin open interest exceeds BTC, meaning a local top is near; with strong catalysts, it can go further; overflow-driven gains will eventually return. Don't just chase, you must know when to run!!! $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #Gold breaks above $4600, bonds Bitcoin rose from 62,000 to 75,000 in just three or four days.
You can't say this is a definite bull rebound, but this kind of K-line is indeed very rare in a bear market.
1⃣ Why the rise? Four data points:
The US 20-year Treasury has been falling, with yields going up;
Short-term Treasuries are also falling but relatively stable;
The S&P 500 has dropped for five consecutive trading days;
Gold has been rising steadily.
So now: Treasury yields are rising, US stocks are falling, gold and Bitcoin are rising. This time Bitcoin didn’t follow the stock market; it’s rising on its own.
📌 This kind of trade is called a debasement trade.
Simply put, when the market believes the government will ultimately solve debt problems by printing money, people buy things that can’t be printed.
Gold can’t be printed, Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed, while the US dollar, US Treasuries, and stocks priced in dollars will be diluted.
The Chinese yuan hasn’t actually appreciated; it’s mostly stable. It appears to appreciate because the US dollar is depreciating.
The way to judge is simple: see if it’s also rising against other currencies. Ultimately, the pressure on US Treasuries is just too great.
2⃣ In the crypto space:
On August 18, the SEC issued a crypto asset regulatory rule. The first exemption allows up to $5 million in financing within 4 years; the second exemption allows up to $75 million in financing every 12 months.
The meaning is clear: it’s favorable for financing and investment environment.
RootData’s data also shows that in the past year or so, there haven’t been many good projects or financing, essentially because no one was willing to spend money to invest.
This regulation is essentially a relaxation in financing and investment. Policy-wise and project-wise, it’s a short-term double positive.
3⃣ About the bottom, I still maintain my original judgment: the bottom of this bear market is most likely between 60,000 and 70,000, not below 60,000, except for occasional spikes.
There’s a rule in crypto called "carving a mark on a boat to seek a sword" — the bottom of this cycle is the top of the previous cycle. The last cycle’s top was 60,000 to 70,000, so this cycle’s bottom is seen at 60,000 to 70,000;
The 2018 cycle’s peak was around 15,000 to 18,000, and the previous bear market’s bottom was also about 15,000.
Personally, I don’t like this rule much, but it does have a bit of similarity, for reference only.
4⃣ I won’t say the bear market is definitely over now; I try not to be too subjective.
But in the next few months until the end of the year, I think we need to focus our energy.
Once Bitcoin leads the rise, it will definitely bring many opportunities, and you can’t imagine these opportunities before they come out.
At least have the awareness: something is coming. From a data perspective, BTC's current rally has exceeded 25%
Funding rates have surged to an annualized rate of over 60%
The long-short position ratio has reached 2.8
The market is completely in an extreme greed zone
Currently, short liquidations are close to 80%, while the entire network is shouting for a bull return
FOMO sentiment has surged to its peak
This often means that short-term bullish momentum is nearing exhaustion
After the short squeeze climax, leveraged longs
themselves become a new source of selling pressure
Without continuous new capital to sustain the rally
the liquidation balance will quickly shift to the bulls' disadvantage
A cascade of long liquidations could happen at any time
High activity does not mean stability
Everyone firmly believes that exiting during a reversal is much safer than chasing the rally Right from the start, the bears' fortress wall collapsed halfway. On the chessboard, ETH has just pushed through the critical $2,300 frontline, reaching as high as $2,335 — this wasn’t a casual push but a flank breakthrough brewed over twenty full moves. In the past 24 hours, over $1.1 billion in on-chain short positions have been forced off the board, including a $108 million position under the name pension-usdt.eth — a classic transient pawn, thinking it could block the king’s wing, but ended up being checkmated by its own greed.
What’s most intriguing about the current market is this: is this short squeeze a self-inflicted demise by the bears, or are fresh forces maneuvering through the ETF channel for a flanking attack? Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone absorbing $122 million. It’s like the opponent suddenly mobilizing rear wing vehicles midgame — you think they’re defending, but in reality, they’ve already seen the winning endgame.
But a grandmaster never gets dazzled by a single good move. The current situation looks like a close-quarters battle on the surface but hides two traps. First, the short-term squeeze is like a gambit pawn at the opening — it looks flashy, but if reinforcements don’t follow, the leveraged positions added become a white-square bishop hanging over your head. Second, ETF inflows are slow moves, while on-chain stop losses are fast moves — their rhythms and purposes differ. Retail only sees the $1.1 billion liquidation fireworks; I see the final resting point at $2,335: three layers of stop-loss walls piled up, each order a carefully laid blockade by the opponent.
$xCRCL, as the market’s barometer, now stands like a war chariot that has already traversed the midgame, blocking the open line. It hasn’t made a statement, but its very presence is a deterrent — once spot buying momentum fades, these heat-chasing leveraged funds will be picked off one square at a time like fragile pawn chains in the endgame.
The real key isn’t today’s candlestick but the next three trading days: can the continued inflow from BlackRock’s ETF offset the bears’ counterattack rebuilding positions after this liquidation wave? If buying dries up, those high-leverage longs who just crushed their opponents will themselves become the next targets under siege.
The market is still burning, but I’ve already seen that move — though the one making it may not see the expression on my face. #ethwipes1.1bshorts🚨 $BTC ABOVE $77K MAY BE MORE THAN HYPE
The breakout is gaining credibility as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1.61B this week, including $606M on Thursday—the strongest daily inflow since May.
That institutional demand adds structure to the move.
Now watch the levels: $75K is key support, while $80K is the next major target. If flows stay strong, momentum could spread into $ETH, $SOL, $XRP and $HYPE.
Is this the beginning of a broader trend?
#BTC77KFlowTest #Gold4600VsBonds The trend of $ZEC has completely ignited market sentiment. Yesterday it was hovering around $600, and today it surged directly to $840, a 40% increase in just two days. Such a violent surge is nothing short of a disaster for the bears, and the liquidation list must be quite long. I personally tried to short twice yesterday, fortunately setting stop losses in advance, otherwise the consequences would have been unimaginable. This operation made me deeply realize that stop loss is not a tool to limit profits, but a lifeline. The market always has opportunities, but once the principal is wiped out, everything is out of the question. Being able to control your hands and strictly enforce discipline is the core of long-term survival. However, I couldn't resist just now and opened a short position on $ETH again. This time I also set a stop loss: if the price breaks the previous high, I will close the position immediately; the take profit target is set at $2400. Honestly, the odds of success for this counter-trend operation are not high, but since I decided to try, risk control must be the top priority. Looking back, if I had gone long on this $ZEC rally, the returns would have been very considerable. But the market has no "ifs"; missing out is missing out, and the important thing is whether the next decision is rational. Currently, $BTC continues its strong momentum, with funds continuously flowing in, and market sentiment remains bullish; meanwhile, gold has broken through $4600, challenging the safe-haven status of bonds. The flow of funds between crypto and traditional safe-haven assets deserves close attention. Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and leveraged trading may result in the loss of the entire principal. This article is for market analysis only and does not constituteCracks in the foundation never heal themselves; they only emit deeper groans as the load accumulates. The U.S. Treasury raised the repo cap on 10- to 30-year Treasuries from 2 billion to 4 billion, which is just like pouring an extra batch of cement slurry into the concrete—smooth on the surface, but the stress curve of the rebar in the load-bearing walls still emits metal fatigue creaks under the continuous pressure of deficits and bond supply.
The 30-year yield fell from 5.29% to 5.18%, drawing a nice descending arc on the intraday chart, like a newly installed glass curtain wall reflecting the sunset. But architects all know the curtain wall is just the skin; what really determines whether the tower can stand in a storm is the core tube and pile foundation. Repo operations are liquidity scaffolding, not structural reinforcement—they let bond market traders catch their breath but do not change the number of new floors added each year to this debt skyscraper. When construction periods keep extending and material costs (inflation expectations) keep rising, no matter how beautiful the temporary supports are, they cannot hold permanent loads.
If you shift your gaze from the Treasury yield curve to the BTC skyscraper still under construction, its foundation is liquidity, and its load-bearing walls are risk appetite. When the baseline horizon of the risk-free rate keeps rising, all high-volatility assets are like podiums built on soft soil—not a design flaw, but a change in soil bearing capacity. Some say BTC has broken out of a five-month downtrend line, like removing the outer scaffolding, but if you look down, the drainage in the foundation pit is still working, and the groundwater level (long-term rates) has not truly dropped.
The XMSFT asset is more like a hybrid structural concept: half is the steel frame of traditional cloud computing, half is the suspension structure native to crypto. No matter how stunning the blueprints are, they must undergo wind tunnel testing—reality is, the tower crane for U.S. debt supply is still hoisting new steel beams, and the deficit is an ever-running concrete pump truck. The temporarily raised repo limit only lets the construction crew turn on a few more spotlights during night shifts; once daytime comes, the shadows remain clear.
Repo is not a rate cut, nor is it quantitative easing. It’s like elastic sealant used to repair exterior wall cracks—it won’t leak on rainy days, but the load test for typhoon season hasn’t come yet. During the construction window from October to November, the scaffolding will be readjusted, and the slope of the yield curve will continue to dip like a cantilevered slab, but no one can guarantee the deflection stays within code limits. Stocks, gold, and BTC are all different components on the same structural master plan; they share the same foundation parameters—debt, deficit, inflation expectations. As foundation settlement does not stop, the superstructure can only bear shear stress individually.
I have seen too many unfinished buildings and too many temporary showrooms with gorgeous facades. Truly great projects never rely on adjusting repo caps to buy time—they either redo geological surveys or replace structural systems. And at this moment, the load-bearing walls of the bond market still emit a low hum; no one can confirm whether it’s wind vibration or the limit of the structure. #treasuryupsbuybacks$ETHW It's quiet outside, but the order book is like dogs biting each other. ETH is repeatedly suppressed near 2420.69 by large orders; the volume hasn't increased, but the dumping action is fierce. The K-line has consecutive upper shadows, a typical dog trader's shakeout tactic. Don't rush to catch the falling knife at this position; first see if 2420 holds. If it breaks, that's the next level down. Do you think this move is a sell-off or a bear trap? 👇👇👇#BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain?
The US dollar and US Treasury yields are macro constraints that cannot be ignored when it comes to BTC.
This recent significant rally in Bitcoin, besides the positive catalysts within the crypto space itself, has largely benefited from the weakening US dollar index and the decline in US Treasury yields, which created a risk-on environment. US macro data directly changes market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
If upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll data strengthen again, the market will lower rate cut expectations, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rebound. Once the US dollar strengthens again, even with continuous positive news within the crypto space, Bitcoin’s price will face significant downward pressure. Trading Bitcoin cannot focus solely on crypto news; overseas macro data is always a double-edged sword hanging overhead.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨 ZEC WARNING 🚨
ZEC is around $793, with a recent high near $857. ⚠️
Don’t blindly Long or Short. This coin is highly volatile and can make huge moves within a few days, creating serious liquidation risk.
❌ Don’t chase the pump
❌ Don’t use high leverage
❌ Don’t blindly average down
If you’re already in a losing position, protect your capital first.
⚠️ No prediction is 100% confirmed. Trade with caution.
#ZEC #ZECUSDT #Crypto #Trading #RiskManagement Hợp đồng mở (Open Interest) của altcoin đang ở mức cao đáng lo ngại, thậm chí đã tiến sát tới mức của Bitcoin. 📉 Lần gần nhất chỉ số này bắt kịp OI của BTC, thị trường đã chứng kiến cú sập ngày 10/10. Lịch sử khó lòng lặp lại chính xác, nhưng đợt thanh lý lớn hôm nay nhiều khả năng chưa phải là hồi kết. Khi đòn bẩy dồn về một phía, biến động mạnh là điều khó tránh khỏi. Không phải ai cũng có thể chiến thắng trong cuộc chơi này. ⚠️ Rủi ro: Thị trường tiền mã hóa biến động rất mạnh, đòn bẩy cao cDon't forget the pain after the wound has healed!! 🐮
Still always on the road
We only need to succeed once, understand, brothers?
There is only one peak in a bull market
The time for a small bull and a big bull varies between 2-6 months
In a bull market, mainstream coins don't have more than a 50% pullback
So any low point during a pullback is a good opportunity to build a position for the long term
Recently, many FOMO brothers have rushed into the crypto world. Let's reminisce about what happened on 10/11 back then.
In the early morning of October 11, 2025, macro negative news hit, and the entire crypto market started to cascade down.
BTC dropped continuously from around $120,000, and altcoins were even worse, many coins losing dozens of points within minutes.
But the real terror was not the drop, it was the liquidation chain starting.
Price drops, high-leverage longs get liquidated.
Liquidations force exchanges to sell.
Forced selling pushes the price down further.
Price drops again, triggering the next batch of liquidations.
So:
Drop → Liquidation → Forced close → Bigger drop → More liquidations.
Within 24 hours, the entire market liquidated over $19 billion, about 1.6 million accounts were liquidated.
Then the exchanges started to maximize the drama.
USDe, theoretically pegged to $1, was once crushed down to over $0.6, WBETH and BNSOL also showed severe price deviations.
Many people used these as collateral.
You originally had collateral worth 1 million in your account, but the system suddenly told you:
Sorry, now it's only worth over 600,000.
So the margin ratio exploded, leading to more forced liquidations.
Even more intense, at that time asset transfers were abnormal for a while; some people watched helplessly as they were about to be liquidated and tried to transfer money in to cover margin, but couldn't.
In the end:
Coins dropped.
Leverage exploded.
Collateral lost its peg.
Liquidity disappeared.
The system froze.
One moment you were calculating what to buy after financial freedom, the next moment your account was left in ashes.
A dream of overnight riches, a wake-up call of overnight liquidation.
A pipe dream, all turned to dust.$BTC is showing strength around $78K after briefly moving above $79K, while $ETH is trading near $2.4K. The recent rally has been supported by solid spot ETF inflows, renewed institutional interest, and heavy short liquidations. Now, all eyes are on the $80K resistance level. The key question is whether buyers can maintain momentum and absorb profit-taking. If ETF demand continues, $BTC could make another push toward a breakout, while $ETH may follow if overall market strength remains intact.📝 Today's share $BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
Just checked the price, BTC touched around 78000. It climbed from 64100 this week, up 23%, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023.
I reviewed the logic behind the rise — the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the long-term bond repurchase scale to $4 billion, directly igniting risk asset sentiment; Trump’s White House met with crypto industry executives, publicly promoting the CLARITY Act; the SEC proposed a dedicated regulatory framework for crypto assets for the first time. These three positive factors combined caused shorts to be liquidated by $11.4 billion, with 124,000 people liquidated.
But thinking calmly, the core driver of this rally is short covering, not new buying. Funding rates have soared to a 20-month high, and the retail long-short ratio surged to 2.22. I saw this script once at 102000, and the outcome wasn’t good.
Key levels:
· Resistance: 79000-80000, psychological barrier
· Support: 72000-74000, first line of defense on pullback
· Strong support: 68000-69000, breaking this weakens the bullish structure
My plan: Hold the base position without moving, with enough profit buffer. But absolutely no chasing highs; place orders around 72500 waiting for a pullback. Missing out doesn’t lose money, chasing highs and getting stuck is painful.
Risk reminder: A 23% rise in one week means profit-taking can emerge anytime. Historical data shows September is usually the weakest month for Bitcoin, don’t get overwhelmed by FOMO.$BTC has stopped sprinting and started pacing. After a week that delivered gains north of 23% — one of its strongest runs since 2023 — the coin pushed toward $80,000, got turned back, and is now grinding sideways near $77,000. The easy phase of this move looks finished. What comes next is less obvious. Why the Momentum Stalled Three forces explain the current lull, and none of them point to weakness — they point to a market that's simply digesting what already happened. The squeeze has burned th#BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
The direction of Bitcoin in September largely depends on the voting progress of the "CLARITY Act" on September 15. Currently, a "rally followed by a pullback" is the fundamental path, while a major positive outcome falling through could trigger a "second dip."
📊 Key September milestones and target forecasts
There are three decisive points this month that directly determine the bullish or bearish direction:
· September 15 (Regulatory Vote): The US Senate's vote on the "CLARITY Act" will set the tone for the regulatory environment. Without progress, the current $75,000 rally may be seen as a "false breakout," causing prices to fall back.
· September 16 (Fed Minutes): If the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes signal a rate cut, it will continue to suppress Treasury yields, directly benefiting high-valuation assets.
· September 30 (Quarterly Close): The quarterly candlestick close is key to confirming whether the "cycle bottom" established in July holds, and serves as a reference point for medium- to long-term capital accumulation.
Target price forecasts:
· Bottom support: $70,000 - $72,000. This is the dividing line between bulls and bears; staying above maintains a steady upward trend.
· Core range: $74,000 - $76,000. This is a neutral expectation, mainly consolidating the foundation for further gains.
· Upper resistance: $78,000 - $84,000. This is the target zone for this rebound; breaking through depends on positive developments.
🛡️ Underlying logic supporting September's trend
Current market changes are mainly driven by two factors:
· Liquidity inflection point (US debt and interest rates): On September 9, the US Treasury doubled the long-term bond repurchase scale to $4 billion. This will lower long-term bond yields, easing the pressure of high rates on the crypto market and providing strong support for capital flow back into risk assets.
· Historical cycle choice: Institutions like VanEck, analyzing on-chain data, believe the market is near or has entered the accumulation phase following a "capitulation sell-off," expecting the window for accumulation to be from September to November 2026.
Currently, there is significant market divergence; some believe September is just a "false stability," with the real bottom coming in October. This uncertainty is central to risk assessment. Before the legislative outcome is finalized, it is advised not to heavily chase highs. $BTC This week may be a turning point for Bitcoin $BTC .
Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed ~80% below its cycle peak price. In the latest bear market Bitcoin fell ~50% from its peak, less than all prior cycles to this point.
Markets were debating whether Bitcoin would see another leg down in Q4 2026. While there are still risks, the rally this week may indicate we’ve reached a more durable bottom.当前黄金市场正处于多重逻辑交织博弈的关键节点。8月以来，国际金价摆脱前期区间震荡格局，开启一轮强势反弹行情，伦敦现货黄金价格接连突破关键整数关口，创下今年5月以来的新高。从宏观基本面来看，本轮金价大涨是多重利好因素共振的结果。一方面，美国财政部计划扩大长期国债回购规模，叠加美国近期公布的非农就业、通胀等核心经济数据不及预期，市场对美联储加息的押注持续降温，甚至提升了后续降息的可能性，为金价上涨提供了直接支撑。另一方面，中东地缘局势的阶段性缓和以及全球央行持续购金的战略行为，进一步夯实了金价的底部支撑。 然而，当前黄金市场已告别单一利好驱动模式，进入多重定价逻辑交织博弈的新阶段。短期来看，受美债流动性支持政策刺激，金价上涨节奏较快，但经过持续上行之后，当前价格已来到高位区间，短线上涨动能有所放缓，高位获利了结的压力逐步显现。中期来看，金价走势核心依托全球货币政策周期，当前美联储处于货币政策周期转换的关键节点，政策走向仍依赖美国宏观经济数据的进一步指引。因此，在缺乏全新重磅利好刺激的前提下，单边持续冲高难度加大，金价后续大概率将维持高位震荡蓄力，并随宏观数据与地缘局势的变化而反复波动。 尽Watching the market at 4 a.m., I'm 🌙 once again questioning life. Why does every time I cut a loss and exit, the market always takes off on time? Last night, I kept watching ETH's candlestick and repeatedly confirmed in my mind: this pullback will lead to a rebound. At that time, the order was 2350, but the lowest price was 2355, just 5 USD short of being caught. Then it climbs back to around 2500 yuan, and it feels like you've set your sights on a dress, hesitate for a second, and someone else takes it for you—right there trying it on for you to see. What's even more heartbreaking is AAVE. The positions I took in 91 and 96 stubbornly endured floating losses for over twenty days, with losses reaching over $1,000 at the highest. When it reached 92, I couldn't hold out any longer, but today it went down to 122. You see, that's how the market works—when you can hold on, it drops for you; when you can't, it rises for you. The lifeblood of retail investors has never been IQ, but discipline. Actually, what I want to talk about isn't the order, but the subtle aspect of market sentiment. Right now, the market gives me the feeling: FOMO is resurfacing, but more people hesitate than dare to chase. ETH's catch-up rally is essentially a result of funds seeking suboptimal options after BTC's high-level fluctuations, not a sudden return of faith. Many people think Ethereum will strengthen on its own, but I tend to think it's just catching up to the rally. One signal people overlooked was that the volatility of counterfeit companies was starting to amplify, but the direction was not unified. This shows that emotions are warming up, but the narrative is still scattered, with no main storyline supporting the overall story. In this situation, those chasing gains are easily hit by repeated stop-loss scans, which actually makes the market rhythm more fragmented and harder to follow. A bit muchUS Treasury Expands Treasury Repo: Who Is Secretly Opening the Floodgates for the Crypto Bull Market?
While the entire network is still debating whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, the US Treasury has quietly activated another liquidity printing machine. It announced a further expansion of the regular long-term Treasury repurchase program, directly igniting the surge engine for risk assets led by Bitcoin.
Many people don’t understand the mechanics of the Treasury’s repo. On the surface, it is a technical operation to stabilize long-term yield fluctuations, but in reality, it is a covert liquidity injection circumventing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet limits. The Treasury issues a large amount of ultra-short-term debt to draw funds from money market funds, then uses real cash to buy back illiquid, higher-yielding long-term old debt in the secondary market. This out-and-in operation directly injects extremely ample reserves into commercial banks and primary dealers, substantially lowering the true risk-free rate across the market.
However, this fiscal liquidity injection is not without cost. Against the backdrop of a 39 trillion debt deficit, borrowing short to buy long temporarily supports risk assets but further pushes refinancing risk to the extreme. If inflation revives, the intensity of macro tightening backlash will far exceed expectations.
For traders, this rally driven by covert fiscal liquidity has strong explosive power, but never blindly leverage up to go long. Constantly monitoring changes in the 10-year Treasury yield curve is the core defensive line.
What new heights do you think this Treasury-led covert liquidity injection can push this crypto market to?
#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 Capital is shifting its focus from general computing power to custom chips, with $MRVL's $275 target price valuation premium and long-cycle delivery risks forming the current core contradiction.
Citigroup raised the target price to $275, corresponding to Google's long-term potential scale of $120 billion in custom AI chip orders linked with warrants. The buyers' risk appetite has increased, already pricing in long-term expectations, but the conversion pace of the custom ASIC supply chain has yet to be verified by near-term financial data.
The current order of influence factors is: the sustainability of tech giants' AI capital expenditures, the scale of interest binding brought by warrants, and the secondary disturbance of macro inflation on the interest rate environment and overall valuation multiples.
The upside scenario is based on the premise of no delays in supply chain delivery. If subsequent quarterly data verify that custom chips are delivered on schedule, long positions will naturally absorb the valuation premium and approach $275; if the giants' CapEx increment exceeds expectations, this driving force will be further amplified.
The downside scenario is triggered by rising macro inflation or delays in self-developed architecture delivery. Once inflation data cause capital costs to be reassessed, giants reducing CapEx expectations will tighten risk appetite, and high-valuation heavy positions will quickly face squeeze and pullback.
When the market experiences a significant downward revision of the long-term discounted cash flow model and prices break key support levels, the long premium logic fails, and the market will return to a strict review of near-term performance.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the actual position weight of this long-term large order in the discounted cash flow model and the transmission path of inflation expectation changes on the overall risk appetite of tech stocks.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 History is strikingly similar, a rebound ≠ a reversal
The current $BTC structure reminds more and more people of 2022—bottoming in June, a violent rebound in August, followed by a second round of sharp declines. History doesn't simply repeat itself, but the similarity in patterns is unsettling.
Back then, the rebound was also from over 50,000 to over 70,000, with the market overwhelmingly bullish, only to be harshly proven wrong as BTC crashed all the way down to 40,000. Now the script has reached the same point—from $58,000 sharply rising to $79,500, market sentiment is once again turning euphoric. The post-halving bull market narrative is tempting, but is this time really different?
There are certainly differences: continuous net inflows into ETFs, expectations of interest rate cuts, and marginally warmer regulation—these supports were absent in 2022. But the core driver of this rebound is short covering and leverage boosting, not steady, gradual accumulation. Once buying dries up, prices that rose quickly tend to correct quickly as well.
The key is not to equate this rapid rise with bottom confirmation. If BTC shows a high-volume bearish weekly candle and breaks below $76,000, the 2022 scenario could very well repeat—$72,000 or even $68,000 might be seen. Maintaining respect is more important than blind optimism. During this $BTC pullback, many people started to panic again.
On August 22 intraday, $BTC once spiked down below $77,000, $ETH dropped below $2,400, and $SOL fell nearly 11.5% in a single day.
In just one hour, over $520 million in liquidations occurred across the network; in the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $1.8 billion, with more than 280,000 people forcibly liquidated, the vast majority being long positions.
But this decline was not caused by any sudden major negative news.
The real reason is simple:
From August 19 to 21, the market just went through a round of short liquidations close to $3 billion in scale.
BTC quickly surged from around $64,000 to above $77,000, with a short-term increase of over 20%, causing a large amount of capital to chase the rally and rapidly accumulate high-leverage long positions.
When the price failed to break through the key resistance at $80,000, profit-taking began, and the market started to pull back.
Once the key support is broken, a large number of high-leverage long positions trigger forced liquidations, and the system automatically sells, further accelerating the decline, ultimately resulting in a long squeeze.
This is a typical scenario:
"After the shorts are squeezed out, the longs start to be cleaned out."
Especially on weekends, with reduced participation from European and American funds, market liquidity thins, and even slight selling pressure can cause significant volatility.
Currently:
$77,000 is the key short-term boundary between bulls and bears.
If this level holds, it indicates the upward structure has not been broken.
If it breaks, the next area to watch is $74,000 to $75,000.
Don't deny the trend just because of a single spike, and don't ignore risks just because of the recent surge.
The market is always doing one thing:
Clearing the most crowded positions.
$BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Wall Street is shifting funds from general computing power to custom chips, pushing the forward valuation of $MRVL into a new competitive range.
Citigroup has raised the target price for this stock to $275, driven primarily by Google's expansion of custom AI chip collaboration, with potential revenue scale pointing to a long-term $120 billion.
The binding of warrants creates an interest alignment between tech giants and chip manufacturers, shifting market risk appetite toward long-term customized delivery.
Forward expectations have been factored into current pricing, and capital is beginning to model the actual conversion pace of custom ASICs under supply chain pressure.
If the delivery pace in subsequent quarters can be fulfilled on schedule, bullish positions are expected to gradually absorb the valuation premium and approach $275.
However, if macro inflation disturbances suppress capital expenditures by tech giants, or if delays occur in self-developed architecture delivery, the currently established high-valuation positions may quickly face pullbacks.
The gap between large long-term orders and extremely long realization cycles constitutes the most significant current judgment divergence.
In the coming days, the most important variable to watch is the market's actual position pricing of this forward large order within the cash flow discounting model.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTCBrothers, the market has been very interesting recently.
The overall market is adjusting; the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are all weak, but the funds have not completely withdrawn—they are quietly shifting direction.
The two most obvious trends:
One is the crypto asset chain.
The other is storage chips.
After BTC strengthened, crypto-related stocks like MSTR, CLSK, COIN, and RIOT all became active. This signal indicates that funds are not just buying BTC itself but are spreading out along BTC's momentum.
On the other side, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Micron, and Marvell—companies in storage and AI infrastructure—continue to strengthen. This shows the AI theme is not over; the market is no longer just focused on large models and GPUs but is starting to expand into storage, data centers, power, and network equipment infrastructure.
So today, we can't simply say the market is weak.
The indexes are weak because big tech stocks are under pressure, and there is disagreement over valuations and short-term gains.
But structurally, risk capital is still present; it’s just shifting from crowded big tech to more flexible crypto beta and AI infrastructure sectors.
I think what we should watch most tonight is not whether the three major indexes are up or down, but whether the capital diffusion can continue.
If BTC-related stocks keep strengthening, it means market risk appetite remains.
If storage chips keep strengthening, it means the AI capital expenditure theme has not been disproven.
But if only a few highly flexible stocks surge while indexes and volume lag, we need to guard against it turning into a short-term sentiment-driven market.
In this kind of market, the worst thing is to chase the stocks with the biggest gains.
A better way to observe is:
Who can still strengthen against the trend during index adjustments;
Which main theme can still hold the buying when funds shift direction.
In the short term, don’t chase gains; focus on capital flow.
The truly strong themes often reveal themselves first during market adjustments.Exclusive Analysis | Why have I been saying since June: Q3 will definitely rise? Because this is not a news issue, it's a math problem.
Today I used up my GPT image generation quota, and since I have some free time, I'll explain this logic clearly again.
Old followers know that I am an advanced Sudoku enthusiast.
So when looking at the crypto market, I don't usually chase news, but use the "elimination method."
Why must Q3 rise?
Because BTC and ETH have been falling continuously from Q4 last year through Q2 this year, dropping for three consecutive quarters.
More importantly:
The decline is narrowing, and volume is also decreasing.
What would happen if Q3 continues to fall at this point?
This year is already a bear market; BTC and ETH are both suppressed on the yearly chart, so Q4 will ultimately fall again.
If Q3 falls and Q4 falls again, it will form an extreme continuous downtrend structure.
At that time, even the most ordinary investors will know:
"There will be a big rebound in Q1 next year."
This becomes an obvious signal.
And what the main players dislike most is showing everyone an obvious signal.
So the most reasonable path can only be:
Q3 rebounds first, pulling the market back to optimism.
Q4 falls again, pushing the yearly line back down.
This completes both the quarterly recovery and the full-year bear market structure.
So since June, I have been saying:
The Q3 rise has nothing to do with CPI, policies, or good or bad news.
These things can only change the market for a few hours or days.
What really determines the big cycle are quarterly structure, time, and volume.
And remember:
What makes a rebound truly scary is not that no one believes it.
It's that in the end, 90% of people will believe in the bull market again.
You may still remember that Q4 will fall.
But when September and October pull up continuously, and all the big influencers on X start shouting that the bull market is back, you might forget what I said today.
This is the task the main players must complete:
Lure in during Q3, harvest in Q4.
So the Q3 rise is not a guess.
For me, it is a math problem.Let's talk about why BTC has surged recently?
This BTC surge is heavily catalyzed by U.S. Treasury bonds.
But it's not a simple "U.S. bonds fall → BTC rises"; the real logic is:
The U.S. Treasury starts actively repurchasing long-term bonds → expectations of declining long-term Treasury yields → weaker dollar → marginal easing of financial conditions → non-sovereign assets like BTC/gold get repriced.
This logic has already been directly traded by the market these days.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced increasing the scale of long-term bond repurchases from about $2 billion each time to $4 billion. After the news, long-term Treasury yields dropped about 10 basis points, the dollar weakened, and BTC and gold rose simultaneously.
The Treasury's sudden increase in long-term bond repurchases essentially sends a signal to the market:
The U.S. government does not want long-term interest rates to continue spiraling out of control.
So the market started trading on "long-term rates peaking/financial conditions improving."
More importantly: the dollar is also falling.
This is actually what I consider a more important part of this BTC rally.
Currently, the dollar index has dropped to around 98.7, hitting a three-month low.
So now there is a very typical combination:
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↓ + DXY ↓ + BTC ↑ + Gold ↑
This is much more significant than BTC rising alone.
Because it shows the market is not trading a typical crypto narrative, but rather:
The actual attractiveness of dollar assets is declining.
Hence, gold and BTC are strengthening simultaneously.
Short term: very bullish for BTC.
Long term: it cannot yet be directly interpreted as "the Fed starting to ease."
If the 10-year Treasury yield continues to break below 4.7%, BTC may rise further #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
I am Cige. BTC broke through 77500, rising nearly 20% over three days. The ETF saw a net inflow of $826 million on the previous trading day, with funds spreading from early short covering to ETF and spot buying. This is a structural change, not just a short squeeze.
Market sentiment is also rapidly shifting. Cramer switched from selling BTC due to quantum computing risks to recommending direct buying, while Schiff called the breakthrough of 72000 a false breakout and advocated switching to gold. These two longtime bearish figures gave completely opposite reactions, indicating that chasing momentum is starting to spread.
CNBC host Cramer, who previously publicly sold BTC over concerns about quantum computing risks, recently turned around to advise investors to buy BTC directly, calling it a top-tier trading tool. Peter Schiff, long bearish on Bitcoin, called the breakthrough of $72000 a false breakout and advocated moving to gold. These two longtime BTC bears gave completely opposite reactions. Market sentiment is shifting from caution to chasing momentum, and the divergence is rapidly converging, which is often a psychological feature of the mid-to-late stage of a trend.
Next, let's see if ETF funds can continue to absorb profit-taking sales. If inflows continue, the short squeeze market will switch to trend recovery. If inflows slow, high-level profit-taking and leverage rebuilding will amplify volatility. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $DOGE This wave of sentiment has peaked, basically hitting the ceiling.
From a hard cap at 68K to 78.5K, it relied on a triple pulse created by CPI cooling more than expected + Fed's dovish tone + options expiry forced liquidation.
But this push-back feeling is clearly fading. Funding rates soared from 0.05% to 0.12%, retail long positions are crowded, while the main players are actually reducing positions — on-chain large wallets have withdrawn 23,000 BTC in the past 48 hours, and exchange balances are starting to rise. The 1-hour OBV has already turned down, the CME gap has been filled, and going higher is not a new trend but the last inertia of sentiment.
That recent 15-minute sell-off saw $SOL drop 6.3%, $DOGE drop 9.1%, $LINK drop 11.4%, with contract liquidations totaling 870 million in 24 hours, 75% of which were longs.
This pattern is called a pump phase to nurture longs, followed by a dump phase to harvest — the main players' cost basis is in the 68-70K range, with enough floating profit above 78K, so a random spike can wipe out leveraged long positions entirely. Both bulls and bears get hurt, but the sequence is always to lure longs first, then flush them out, playing the rhythm very clearly.
Where does the momentum break? Macro pricing is maxed out, rate cut expectations are hard to exceed, ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive days, and although the volume is small, the direction has changed. There are many trapped positions above 78K, and on-chain URPD shows sparse chip density at this level. To really hold steady, a pullback to 72-73K to rebuild volume is necessary; otherwise, it's just a thin layer.
So the strategy is twofold: fully unload leverage, and stagger spot orders.
Spot pullbacks are opportunities to add at a discount, not disasters. 5. International gold prices continue to strengthen, with gold sector stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rising collectively
International gold prices keep surging, driven by risk-off sentiment combined with declining U.S. Treasury yields, prompting institutions to raise medium- to long-term gold price targets. Gold mining company stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are strengthening simultaneously. Gold is a strong cyclical asset; if inflation rebounds and the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, gold prices will quickly come under pressure. Gold stock performance is highly tied to commodity prices and lacks an independent long-term growth logic. The market is driven by risk aversion, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a pullback after commodity prices surge.4. Mid-year report window period, many AI hardware companies' performance significantly exceeds expectations
The A-share market is entering the final stage of half-year report disclosures. AI hardware companies such as Changfei Optical Fiber and Dongshan Precision have seen substantial performance growth, with the computing power hardware industry chain showing clear performance realization. AI computing power construction drives explosive orders for optical communication and server structural components. Some companies' high performance growth stems from the industry's favorable cycle rather than unique technological barriers of the companies themselves. The hardware industry is highly cyclical; once downstream cloud providers reduce capital expenditures, performance will quickly come under pressure. The market needs to distinguish between performance-driven growth and thematic speculation, and view the sector's market rationally.2. GLM-5.3 Large Model Access to National Supercomputing Internet for External Calls
The new generation GLM-5.3 base by Zhipu has officially connected to the national supercomputing internet, allowing enterprises and developers to directly call the API interface. Its performance in long text and code evaluation ranks among the world's top tier. External access lowers the AI development threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises and promotes the domestic large model industry implementation. Large model computing power costs are high, and commercialization is still in the early stages. The subsequent B-end paid conversion rate will become the core metric to measure the domestic large model industry's implementation effectiveness, and industry competition will further intensify. BTC rose 7.8% in one day, is the bull market back?
My answer is:
The bottom may have appeared, but the bull market is not yet confirmed.
As of August 20, BTC is around $69,450, with a high close to $69,900, making its first challenge to the key bull-bear dividing line.
Next, focus on four levels:
• 64,200: 200-week moving average, long-term support
• 68,500—70,000: current bull-bear dividing line
• 75,800: stabilizing above this is closer to an early bull market
• 83,000—86,000: major trapped zone, only after breaking through is a structural bull market basically confirmed
Glassnode still defines the current market as "shallow capitulation and bottoming," with spot demand, Coinbase premium, and seller exhaustion not yet fully confirmed.
My latest subjective judgment on the bottom:
• 58,300 is the final bottom: 50%
• Pullback to 60,000—64,000 but no new lows: 25%
• Revisit 52,000—58,000 from September to November: 20%
• Macro shock breaking below 52,000: 5%
So, the lowest price point may have appeared, but bottom confirmation is more likely to happen between September and November 2026.
In the next two weeks, I’m only watching three things:
Whether the weekly line can hold 68,500—70,000
Whether the pullback to 66,000—68,500 can hold
Whether ETFs can continue inflows and further break through 75,800
A big bullish candle is the easiest to make people mistake a rebound for a bull market.
Holding 68,500 means reaching the right side of the bottom;
Breaking through 75,800 means getting closer to a new bull market.
For those already holding a base position, it’s more important now to wait for confirmation rather than chase the rise.
Do you think $58,300 is the final bottom of this round?
#BTC #Bitcoin1. Bitcoin surged to $77,000, marking a strong rebound in the crypto market
On August 22, Bitcoin surged to $77,000, reaching a new phase high. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields declined, combined with positive signals from U.S. politicians toward the crypto industry, the market anticipates progress on regulatory legislation. A large number of short positions in the futures market were liquidated, further driving up prices, and crypto concept stocks strengthened simultaneously. Technical indicators have entered the overbought zone, accumulating correction risks. The related legislation faces significant resistance in Congress, with limited chances of short-term implementation. Crypto assets carry extremely high risks, and market reversals can happen quickly. Domestic support for cryptocurrency trading is absent; ordinary investors should avoid participation. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温
The boss has something to say
The PMI data has been analyzed before; today, let's discuss the reaction of the capital structure from a different angle.
The composite PMI hit a four-year high, with the service sector surging to 56.8. After the data was released, the market immediately responded: Bitcoin dropped from around 77,000 to 75,000, and Ethereum fell more than 4%. What's interesting is not the data itself, but the speed of the market's reaction. After a short squeeze rally reaches a high, any hawkish macro signal will be amplified.
The previous logic was that cooling CPI and PPI along with weakening employment pushed the probability of a rate hike down to about 35%. A strengthening PMI fills in the other side of the evidence: the economy is strong, and the Federal Reserve has no reason to ease. The pricing for a September rate hike needs to be recalibrated. If U.S. Treasury yields rise again, the ceiling for risk assets remains.
This short squeeze rally from 64,000 to 77,000 was mainly driven by the Treasury bond buybacks by the Treasury Secretary and the regulatory narrative from the White House summit. PMI does not change these two logics but affects the macro environment's risk appetite. At high levels, any slight disturbance can trigger profit-taking.
All long positions have been closed, profits secured. Waiting for a pullback to see if the 73,000 to 74,000 range can hold before considering re-entry.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.1. Zhipu AI (02526.HK)
A Hong Kong-listed large model company, GLM-5.3 base integrated with the national supercomputing internet external API, showing outstanding performance in long text and code capability evaluations. Demand from B-end government and enterprise clients is steadily increasing, while also deploying a C-end AI product matrix. The procurement cost of large model computing power remains high, and the company has not yet achieved profitability. Domestic large model competition is intensifying, with price wars squeezing service gross margins. The core focus is on improving government and enterprise paid conversion rates; the progress of commercialization determines the valuation ceiling, making it suitable for continuous tracking of order data. BTC at $77,138, a 23% weekly increase, marks the highest level since March 2023. This is the moment to verify whether this rise is a structural change beyond a simple short squeeze. Last week, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of bond repurchases improved dollar liquidity in the short term, creating a favorable environment for risk asset preference. Additionally, with the Clarity Act advancing, some regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. ahead of the presidential election has eased, establishing an institutional foundation for inflows of institutional funds. More than $1 billion net inflow occurred weekly through ETFs alone, and about $2.75 billion moved into whale wallets over 60 days. Ray Dalio's hedge remarks can be seen as a symbolic indicator showing a shift in perception within traditional finance. The core driver of this rally is forced buying from the liquidation of $2.5 billion in short positions. This is close to a one-time shock in market structure. On the other hand, ETF and whale purchases signal continuous demand accumulation, and whether the $80,000 breakthrough occurs depends on whether these two demands can work together to defend the price. Market transmission 1. CanSino Biologics (06185)
Significantly surged, a core vaccine stock in the Hong Kong market. Overseas mRNA tumor vaccine clinical breakthroughs have boosted sentiment across the entire biopharmaceutical sector. The company has established an mRNA technology R&D platform, with multiple vaccines in clinical and application stages. The application for the DTaP vaccine listing has been accepted, bringing new commercial prospects. The traditional vaccine market is highly competitive, with centralized procurement suppressing profits. Most innovative pipelines have yet to generate actual revenue, and the company remains in a loss-making state. This round of increase is driven by industry theme catalysts rather than major clinical results from the company itself, with a high risk of retreat as the hype fades.From the latest data on OKX spot and futures rankings, the market in the past 24 hours shows typical characteristics of a mid-stage rebound — funds have not fully flooded into mainstream coins but have precisely targeted three categories: small-cap, oversold, and new narrative tokens. Meanwhile, the "demon coins" that surged yesterday are collectively lying at the bottom of the decline list today, perfectly illustrating the "up yesterday, down tomorrow" rhythm. 📊 Spot gainers list: Small-cap + New coins + Oversold rebound According to OKX spot public rankings and community reviews, the top gainers in the past 24 hours are as follows: Rank Coin 24h Change Volume Attribute Analysis 1 HUMA +25.05% 23.74 million Low-level small cap, speculative pulse 2 CAP +23.35% 87.13 million Public chain theme rotation 3 2Z +18.01% 25.25 million Small-cap narrative coin 4 AEON +15.66% 34.54 million Oversold rebound 5 RDDT +12.92% 1.51 million Social concept, low liquidity 6 SNXX +12.61% 179 million Leveraged mapped token 7 CARDS +9.91% — Small-cap rebound 8 NOT +9.55% — Meme sector recovery Core features: - All are low market cap tokens: HUMA, 2Z, RDDT volumes are all under 100 million, meaning "a small amount of capital can leverage a large price increase" - AI/Meme sector green day: VIRT Conclusion first: Token concentrated unlocking will cause "localized crashes," but it will not cause the entire crypto market to collapse collectively. The real danger is not the unlocking itself, but the ratio of "unlocking volume ÷ circulating market cap," whether it is a cliff release, and who the recipients are. August unlocking overview: Large total volume but dispersed structure. There are different statistical calibers for August unlocking: CoinMarketCap caliber is about $1.28 billion, with RAIN leading linear unlocking at $569 million (accounting for 6.35% of circulation), SOL at $146 million but only 0.34% of circulation; another statistical caliber shows over $323 million for the whole month, led by YZY, PROVE, and KAITO. Key judgments: - Large holders like RAIN and SOL release linearly, not dumping all at once, giving the market 30 days to digest - PROVE’s single unlocking value exceeds its entire current market cap, YZY’s unlocking volume accounts for 93% of circulation—these two are the real "crash candidates" - The truly high-risk cliff unlocking is concentrated in small-cap coins like TRUMP (11.29% of circulation) and YZY (22.83%) Historical data: 90% have negative pressure, but "crashes" are conditional. Keyrock’s statistics on over 16,000 unlocks show: 90% of unlocks bring negative price pressure, with an average team unlock drop of about 25%. Tokenomist’s tracking of 236 events is more precise1. Tesla (TSLA)
Closed up over 5%, with trading volume among the market leaders. Received commercial operation license for Robotaxi in Las Vegas, allowing deployment of up to 5,000 autonomous taxis; the market is optimistic about the progress of autonomous driving commercialization. Plans to open Cybercab driverless taxi test rides by the end of the month, reigniting the autonomous driving narrative. Also announced a large-scale vehicle recall, causing some disturbance to the stock price. The ongoing price war among automakers continues to squeeze vehicle profit margins, and the autonomous driving business is unlikely to contribute significant revenue in the short term; the market is driven more by future expectations.5. Zhongbei Communication (603220)
Significant volume surge and price increase, dual main lines of computing power leasing + optical modules. Domestic large model enterprises have strong demand for computing power, leading to rapid revenue growth in computing power leasing business, and optical module products supply domestic data centers. Speculative funds combined with institutional capital jointly drive the stock price upward. A large number of new players are entering the computing power leasing industry, intensifying industry competition, and rental prices continue to decline. High depreciation costs of hardware equipment will compress corporate profits. This round of price increase is driven by expectations of computing power prosperity; performance realization depends on subsequent customer renewals and order fulfillment.1. Clear macro drivers: This market movement is not an isolated crypto event but the result of the Federal Reserve's policy shift combined with changes in the US government's stance. Any macroeconomic turbulence could trigger a sharp market correction.
2. Privacy coin narrative heats up: ZEC's performance indicates high market expectations for privacy coin ETFs, but regulatory risks for these assets remain. The EU's anti-money laundering regulations and US congressional crypto bills could introduce uncertainties.
3. Extremely high leverage risk: The three consecutive days of liquidation waves show that market leverage is already very high. Entering now risks becoming the bag holder, especially for altcoins with huge gains, which could experience corrections much more severe than BTC. $ETH $BTC $ZEC BTC once surged to $79.5K, currently retreating to around $78.5K, with an overall steady trend. I still maintain my previous judgment: short-term upside is limited, and the resistance above should not be ignored.
Besides the previously mentioned macro and technical factors, a key variable lies in the holding behavior of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The company's average Bitcoin cost is about $75K, and the current price is already above its cost line, so there is a strong motivation to reduce holdings. By selling some BTC and repurchasing its own stock STRC, it can lock in profits and optimize capital structure, which is logically sound.
If Strategy indeed takes this action, the market will face additional selling pressure, and Bitcoin will most likely pull back to the $75K level and oscillate repeatedly in that range. $75K is both a psychological threshold and a cost-intensive zone, where the bulls and bears are expected to intensify their struggle.
Of course, the market is always full of uncertainties. I also hope my judgment is wrong; if the bulls can continue to break through with volume, the possibility of the market continuing upward still exists. 🚀
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and price predictions carry significant uncertainty. The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please view it rationally and bear the risks yourself. $BTC $STRC $ETH $SOL $BNB