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Capital flow divergence: Conservatives and speculators each take what they need
The crypto ETF data on September 1 reveals a subtle rift in market sentiment: Bitcoin saw an outflow exceeding $230 million, while ETH, SOL, and XRP collectively attracted over $35 million. This is not a simple case of "abandoning the big for the small," but a clear stratification of strategy.
Bitcoin's outflow is more likely due to profit-taking or hedging under macro pressure rather than a collapse of confidence. As the "dollar index" of the crypto market, it carries the strongest macro sentiment weight.
The inflows into alternative assets reflect two distinctly different speculative mindsets:
· ETH represents the "ecosystem value camp," betting on the fundamentals of the application layer;
· SOL and XRP carry more of an "event-driven" speculative nature, revolving around performance narratives and regulatory progress for short-term plays.
This is not a call for an altcoin season, as funds are not evenly distributed across all small coins but are highly concentrated in leading alternative assets. The market is bidding farewell to the "rising tide lifts all boats" logic and entering a phase of "precision targeting."
The next wave of capital will most likely follow two main paths: either flowing into truly revenue-generating application-oriented public chains or betting on the next most likely candidate to pass regulatory "clearance." The illusion of broad-based gains fades; the era of refined selection has arrived.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 On September 3rd, BTC once surged to around $81,759, with a single-day increase of about 6%. This rise was not triggered by a sudden pump of some altcoin, but rather a rebound in risk assets following a global decline in bond yields and the market's renewed expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged.
I think this change is quite crucial.
A few days ago, BTC was still around $77,000, with the market feeling pressured by geopolitical situations, oil prices, and interest rate expectations. Now, within one day, it has climbed back above $81,000, indicating that capital remains highly sensitive to macro liquidity.
It is worth noting that in August, the net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs was about $3.52 billion, making it one of the strongest months this year.
My judgment is:
ETF funds are still present, and once macro pressure eases, BTC's resilience remains strong.
But whether it can firmly hold above $80,000 is, in my opinion, more important than today's 6% rise.
If bond yields continue to fall and ETF inflows persist, the logic for BTC to break past previous highs will become increasingly smooth.
Conversely, if yields rise again and ETF inflows lag, this surge above $80,000 might just be a liquidity rebound.
What I most want to see now is whether capital is willing to keep buying above $80,000.
Do you think this is a true breakout or just another pump-and-dump?BTC has hit $80,000 again.
But this time, don’t just focus on the word "breakthrough."
There’s actually a supply wall on-chain pressing down above.
Currently, about 68% of BTC supply is in profit. Compared to May, roughly 600,000 more BTC have entered the profit zone, which at current prices amounts to about $47 billion in potential profit supply.
To put it simply:
Those who were previously stuck are starting to break even.
Those who bought at low prices are starting to make money.
What do people do after making money?
Some continue to hold.
Others sell directly.
So the real test above $80,000 isn’t whether the market has a story, but whether there’s enough new money to absorb the old chips.
That’s also why sometimes when the price breaks through, it’s actually easier to see sharp volatility.
Because with every rise, more people think:
"That’s enough, I’ll sell a bit first."
So don’t think of $80,000 as a simple numeric barrier.
It’s more like a scale.
On the left is the profit-taking side, on the right is the new buying side.
Whoever is heavier calls the shots.
$BTC SOL really had an on-chain cost reduction today, but the "90% rent reduction" hasn't been fully implemented at once yet.
The Solana Foundation update shows that the first step of SIMD-0437 went live on the mainnet on September 3rd, with the per-byte deposit parameter dropping from 6960 to 6333, a 9% reduction initially. The second step is expected to expand the reduction to 27% by mid-September; the full 90% reduction will require three more steps, targeting Agave 4.4 and November this year.
The "rent" here is more like an account storage deposit, which can be refunded when the account is closed. Older accounts will have a small amount of extra SOL due to the lowered minimum deposit; the newly added official WithdrawExcessLamports instruction allows reclaiming the balance without needing to close the token account.
I currently see this only as a cost reduction for developers and large-scale account openings, not as a direct catalyst for SOL price. Ordinary users don’t need to rush to find unfamiliar "claim websites"; it’s safer to wait until wallets properly integrate the official instruction.
Source: Solana Foundation. Personal record, not investment advice.
$SOL OKB is $109, with a 24-hour trading volume of 32 million.
For comparison: OKX ranks in the top three globally by trading volume, but OKB's market cap is only 2.3 billion. BNB's market cap is fifty to sixty billion, CRO is over ten billion. OKX's user base is not inferior to CRO's; the market cap gap lies in the ecosystem—BSC runs hundreds of DApps, while X Layer is just getting started.
X Layer is OKX's L2; its mainnet has been upgraded and integrated with Chainlink CCIP. But there are no applications on-chain, no capital locked in, which is the fundamental reason why OKB can't take off.
I think it's okay to slowly accumulate below 100, but I won't chase above 100. Stop loss at 80. The reason is OKX won't collapse; in the worst case, it could drop to 46, but if the ecosystem takes off, the upside is huge.
The risk-reward ratio is decent; what's lacking is patience. #Strive Accelerates Buying, Rushing to Become the Second Largest BTC Holder Among Listed Entities
**Latest Data**
Strive increased its BTC holdings by 3,156 in August, totaling 23,156 BTC, with a market value close to $1.8 billion. Warrants exercised are in place allowing an additional $1.4 billion investment to buy more, aiming to challenge for the position of the second largest BTC holder among listed companies. On the market, $BTC is at 81,086, with the overall market fluctuating within a range; corporate buying supports the market.
Market Consensus
Bullish views believe listed companies continue to enter the market, providing a floor for medium- to long-term holdings; cautious views warn that funds come from equity financing, and a weakening US stock market would directly cut off subsequent purchasing power, so this should not be taken as a signal of steady price increase.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Corporate accumulation consumes circulating supply but represents conditional buying, mainly improving medium- to long-term holding structure; short-term trends remain dominated by non-farm payrolls and US Treasury yields.
Personal Opinion (Personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, this is solely a personal view and not investment advice)
This is a medium- to long-term positive factor and is not suitable for short-term trading; position sizes should still be controlled as the data approaches this phase. Last night, with just one sentence from Waller, 100,000 short positions were liquidated. $BTC surged to a high of 82,300, nearly breaking the previous high of 82,850. #比特币再破80000美元
But I still think this is a short squeeze, the bull market hasn't arrived. Brothers who missed out, don't rush, because the macro situation hasn't improved:
Crude oil is still at 96, hasn't dropped;
Core CPI has long been at 2.6%, still far from the 2% target;
The net inflow of BTC ETF funds in August was only 3.5 billion, less than the over 4.5 billion outflow in June;
Before 10/11, the bilateral 1% liquidity had a depth of 260 million, now only 120 million; monthly trading volume is only 900 billion, still far from the previous 2.6 trillion.
With so many macro conditions unimproved, I don't think $BTC breaking through MA120 and MA200 means the bull market has come.
Of course, maybe my judgment is wrong, after all, bull markets grow in doubt and end in frenzy.
But FOMO from not having enough position size, ultimately breaking your own position discipline and mindset, is even more frightening.SanDisk's movement today, those who understand know — on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, funds have already started to rush ahead.
The market plunged directly to 1511 in the morning session, looking like it was going to collapse, but then it was forcibly pulled back to close at 1554 in the late session, and now it's even at 1580 in the dark pool. The turnover rate for the whole day is nearly 6%, with a trading volume of 13.4 billion USD. This volume would be unusual on a normal day, but on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the meaning is clearer: someone is positioning in advance.
The logic is actually quite straightforward. Yesterday's small ADP report was a surprise low, with August ADP at only 37,000, a new low for the year; tonight's non-farm payroll market expectation is only 56,000. If it disappoints again, the probability of a rate hike in September will drop from 60%. When rate hike expectations cool down, who bounces first? Highly elastic AI storage stocks — like SanDisk, whose valuation is fully dependent on liquidity and expectations.
In short, the market is betting: weak data → no rate hike → loosening funds → high beta stocks take off. SanDisk's late session surge today is funds betting on this scenario in advance.
But to be fair, if the non-farm payrolls unexpectedly exceed expectations, those who rushed in today will be the ones left holding the bag tomorrow. The pre-data celebration is a Schrödinger's rally.
At 20:30 tonight, we will see the real outcome!!This big bullish candle was half "donated" by the shorts
📊 On September 4, BTC was around $80,800, up over 4% in 24 hours, briefly touching $82,300 overnight, a new high since mid-May.
① Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, cutting the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September from 63% to 50%; ② The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 4.76%, the dollar weakened, and risk assets collectively rebounded; ③ Over $400 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, shorts covering forced the price above the 80k mark.
Coinbase's 7-day premium average has been negative for over four months, with no real money following in during US trading hours; ETF funds flowed out $236 million the day before, flowing in one day and out the next, unstable.
This rebound driven by macro shifts and short squeeze is not confirmation of a trend reversal. For 80k to turn from resistance to support, tonight's nonfarm payrolls need to give the nod. Leverage should be reduced first—after shorts are liquidated, don't be the next to get wiped out chasing longs.
#BTC #Bitcoin #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC # Waller: August inflation determines whether there will be a rate hike in September, personal view
Federal Reserve Governor Waller gave a clear conditional statement, largely tying the September voting rights to the August inflation data, forming a subtle divergence from the hawkish stance at Jackson Hole. Market expectations for a rate hike in September quickly fell back to around 50%, according to Sina Finance. In his view, employment is already near full level, reducing the weight of the employment report, and inflation is now the core benchmark for policy.
If August CPI continues to cool, he tends to support holding steady; if inflation rebounds again, even slightly, it will push him to support a rate hike. He also reminded that the current interest rate's constraint on the economy is relatively weak, so any inflation fluctuation leaves room for tightening.
This means the September decision has evolved into a data-driven mode, with the impact of non-farm payrolls weakened, and inflation becoming the ultimate trigger. On the asset side, hotter inflation will continue to push up U.S. Treasury yields, suppressing risk assets; inflation cooling benefits U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto asset recovery. At this stage, the long-short game intensifies, and it is not advisable to bet early; waiting for inflation to settle before responding is more prudent.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and investment requires caution. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Personally, I think $TRIA is still very low right now. Many days ago, I went long on this coin, and finally it surged. Hearing this, do you think I made a big profit? Actually, I went long too early. My cost price is about $0.78, and I'm still far from my cost. So I say, going long at this level is still very appropriate. If you go long on $TRIA now, the cost price is much lower than mine. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that during the phase of rising contract open interest, the long-short ratio first rises and then falls. This shows that in the early stages of its rise, many bulls were building positions at the bottom. This means this round of rally should have been well prepared. Let me look at the data over a longer period. We can see that in mid-August, both contract open interest and long-short ratio saw a sharp rise in sync. This is actually not a good thing, because there was a sharp drop in mid-August. This means that after reaching a certain level, there will be significant resistance. Unless the market makers accumulate most of the bulls' chips during the subsequent prolonged consolidation. Because after the drop, the price experiences a relatively long fluctuation, so it's possible that the market makers have accumulated their chips. —————————————————— In my current mind, I think there are three coins that might become 'monsters'The yen is rebounding strongly, the USD weakens → an extremely favorable environment for Gold and Bitcoin 🇯🇵. The yen strengthens: • Expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike on September 18 soared after a series of hawkish speeches. • Japanese investors have just net sold $5.3B of foreign bonds, while there is speculation that GPIF will increase the proportion of Japanese bonds. → The US-Japan interest rate differential may narrow, money flows start to flow back to Japan. ⚠️ But the story may not be over. JPMorgan estimates that there are still about $100B of JPY short positions. If USD/JPY breaks 1BTC wants to firmly reclaim the $80,000 level, but there is actually a somewhat inconspicuous "supply wall" ahead.
Glassnode data shows that currently about 68% of BTC supply is in profit. Compared to the same period in May, approximately 600,000 more BTC have entered the profit zone, which corresponds to about $47 billion in potential profit supply at the current price.
What does this mean?
The higher the price goes, the more people may be willing to realize profits. Especially for chips bought at lower prices earlier, near $80,000, the paper profits are already substantial, so some holders will naturally start considering cashing out.
Therefore, the real difficulty at $80,000 is not just whether there is buying pressure. It is whether new funds can absorb all these profitable chips.
If the price rises while trading volume and spot demand continue to increase, the supply wall can be gradually absorbed. But if buying pressure lags, the area around $80,000 can easily become a concentrated profit-taking zone.
The market never lacks sell orders. What is truly scarce is new funds willing to take these sell orders at high levels.
$BTC Yen short sellers' $102.6 billion liquidation countdown! Once 155 breaks, both BTC and US stocks will shake hard
Brothers, this surge in the yen is unusual. The USD/JPY rate dropped from 160.39 to around 155.30 within a week, and today it’s attempting to break the 155 level for the third time. The Bank of Japan hasn’t intervened at all—no large-scale intervention on Wednesday; the market is essentially stepping on itself.
Why? A rate hike by Japan in September is basically a done deal.
Overnight index swap markets show the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike on September 18 has surged to 80%. Goldman Sachs has moved its rate hike expectation forward from January 2027 to September. Even BOJ board member Takata Sō has hinted—there’s a possibility of a hike exceeding 25 basis points, or even consecutive hikes.
What’s more severe is that JPMorgan just dropped a bombshell: there are still 16 to 17 trillion yen (about $102.6 billion) in short positions open. Once USD/JPY falls below 155, these shorts will be forced to liquidate en masse, potentially pushing the exchange rate down to the 142-146 range.
What does this mean for $BTC?
Yen short covering = yen appreciation = dollar weakness. Dollar weakness = risk assets should theoretically rise. But the process will be brutal—$102.6 billion liquidation is a systemic event that could trigger a global liquidity shock in the short term, impacting all risk assets.
155 is the line between life and death. If it breaks, yen shorts will liquidate, and global markets will shake; if it holds, the yen gets a temporary breather.
#日本长债收益率升至高位 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
This wave of massive gold ETF accumulation plus central bank large-scale transfers— is it the eve of a surge or a shakeout to lure more buyers?
The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, bought nearly 10 tons in a single day, pushing total holdings to 1056.62 tons. The Dutch central bank also relocated 86 tons of gold from New York and Ottawa to London.
At first glance, it looks like a buying frenzy, but looking at the bigger picture, there are two key clues:
The safe boundary of asset custody is being redefined.
Although the Dutch relocation of gold aims to improve liquidity, moving custody from North America to London reflects central banks' careful consideration of physical distance and liquidity efficiency under the macro environment. Assets must not only be held but also be seamlessly liquidated in extreme conditions.
Derivative mechanisms have become volatility amplifiers.
Goldman Sachs highlights that option market makers' hedging strategies are crucial. Under derivative-driven trading, rising gold prices force market makers to buy spot for hedging, further pushing prices up. Conversely, when prices fall, the selling pressure is magnified exponentially.
Predicting the subsequent trend, the market is unlikely to experience mild moves; a higher probability is frequent and intense fluctuations. Major funds building positions provide bottom support, but market makers' hedging mechanisms will make both pullbacks and rebounds unusually fierce.
Do you believe this round of capital inflow will directly push to new highs, or will it first undergo a violent shakeout?
DYOR BTC reclaiming $80K matters more than the headline gain. ETH is keeping pace, while SOL lags slightly, suggesting this is a broad risk bid rather than a narrow rotation. Still, pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve argues for discipline. I would trust the move more if it holds through the next macro catalyst.
Not advice, just analysis.$BTC
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has hit 3%, directly reaching the highest point since 1996. The market has already started pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. This may seem far from the crypto world, but it actually has a significant impact.
Over the past years, the low interest rate on the yen has been a "cash machine" for global risk assets—everyone borrowed cheap yen to buy assets worldwide, and the carry trade scale was huge. Now that borrowing costs are rising, this money faces pressure to flow back, which is like someone scooping water out of the liquidity pot.
BTC and ETH may not immediately crash in the short term; the market might still appear strong, but hidden selling pressure has already been planted behind the scenes. Historical patterns show that a sustained rise in Japanese bond yields often triggers global risk asset deleveraging. The crypto market is especially sensitive to this linkage and can easily experience sharp drops.
What’s more important to note is that this is not an isolated event but part of the global liquidity contraction chain. Don’t just focus on the crypto market’s excitement; peripheral variables like US Treasury yields and the yen exchange rate are also moving in tandem. Once carry trade funds are forced to close positions, the resulting volatility could be more intense than expected.
In short, surface strength does not mean true safety. When liquidity recedes, those standing tallest fall first.
#日银加息预期升温，日元空头平仓风险上升 #沃勒：August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September
The Fed has two voices, one hawkish and one dovish; tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the litmus test.
Warsch at Jackson Hole was very hawkish, saying "there's more work to do" if inflation doesn't come down, and the market once priced in a 60% chance of a rate hike in September. Then Waller came out yesterday and took a dovish stance, saying if inflation cools down, there won't be a rate hike, "giving inflation a chance to fall," and the probability of a hike dropped directly to 50%.
But they share one thing: both look at the data. Waller said August inflation will decide whether to hike, and Warsch also said "we'll act based on the data." Tonight at 8:30 PM, the August nonfarm payrolls are a leading indicator of inflation—hot employment → rising wages → inflation won't come down.
The nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 55,000 jobs tonight; July unexpectedly lost 23,000. If the data beats expectations and employment remains hot, Warsch's hawkish stance gains confidence, and rate hike expectations rise, putting pressure on BTC and ETH. If the data disappoints, Waller's dovish view wins, and a September rate hike is basically nailed down as off the table, allowing BTC and ETH to continue rising.
Currently, BTC is around 81,000, ETH around 2,500, both up more than 5 points yesterday. The current interest rate is 3.5%-3.75%, with inflation still significantly above 2%. The chair is hawkish, the board member dovish; who ultimately decides will be answered by tonight's nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 PM. See you then. $BTC, $ETH #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls set the tone, what exactly is the market betting on?
Brothers, the current market state, frankly, is being held up by Waller's remarks. He said whether to raise rates in September depends entirely on August's CPI. Once this was said, the probability of a rate hike dropped directly from 70% to 50%, and US stocks surged accordingly.
But if you think carefully, what can really shake the expectation of a September rate hike is not tonight's nonfarm payrolls, but next Wednesday's CPI. As long as the nonfarm payrolls aren't too outrageous, the market can tolerate it. The key is whether CPI can continue to approach 2%. If inflation rises again, even Waller can't save it, and a September rate hike is unavoidable.
What is the market trading on now? It's the "soft landing" expectation, betting that inflation can slide down on its own and the Fed won't have to act again. So you see AI concept stocks and tech stocks rallying enthusiastically, trading on this logic.
My projection for the path ahead is: most likely CPI will stabilize or be slightly higher, and the Fed may really raise rates once in September. Even if they don't, long-term bond yields will be pushed up by the market, with the same effect. The biggest fear now is the third scenario— inflation doesn't fall, and the Fed doesn't raise rates either, then the market will take matters into its own hands, crashing until the Fed admits defeat.
In the short term, protect profits before CPI by taking some off the table, don't chase highs. Wait for the data to land, then find direction. $BTC Robinhood surged 16% in one day, 5 quick takes to understand what happened
🧵 Quick Take 1: HOOD surged 16.57% in one day
On September 3, Robinhood closed at $124.72, up 16.57% for the day, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 that day.
Trading volume exceeded 51 million shares—three times the recent daily average volume.
Catalyst?
Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating from "hold" to "overweight" two days ago, raising the price target from $124 to $150. Piper Sandler followed suit, raising its target to $145; Scotiabank Canada also upgraded its rating.
Wall Street is voting with real money.
🧵 Quick Take 2: Robinhood Chain daily revenue $4.01 million
On September 2, Robinhood Chain's on-chain fees reached $4.45 million, with net revenue of $4.01 million.
What does this mean?
It surpasses the combined totals of Base + Solana + Ethereum + BSC.
An L2 launched just two months ago, crushing all established public chains.
Six days ago, its daily revenue was less than $180,000. It has increased 22 times in a week.
🧵 Quick Take 3: Annualized $110 million, the 14th "billion-dollar" business line
In two months since launch, Robinhood Chain's cumulative fee revenue has reached $13.05 million.
Annualized based on the last 30 days data—that's $110 million.
Robinhood already has 13 business lines with annual revenue exceeding $100 million.
This is the 14th.
The Chain is evolving from an "experiment" into a core business.
🧵 Quick Take 4: ARB up 46.7% in two weeks—because Robinhood Chain pays a "platform tax"
According to the partnership agreement, Robinhood Chain returns 10% of protocol net revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem—8% to the DAO treasury, 2% to the Developer Guild.
So far, $1.3 million has been shared.
Arbitrum did nothing but collects money passively.
ARB has risen 46.7% in the past two weeks. In the past week, it surged over 50%, reaching $0.136 on September 3.
One chain supports the entire ecosystem.
🧵 Quick Take 5: Don't chase short-term gains, watch a key signal mid-term
Short-term: Both HOOD and ARB have risen significantly; wait for a pullback before considering, don't chase the highs.
ARB has a risk—about 139 million ARB tokens will unlock on September 23, worth approximately $15.2 million at current prices.
Mid-term: Focus on one thing—whether Robinhood Chain can transition from Meme speculation to real-world asset (RWA) genuine demand.
This is the key to how far the narrative can go.
If it's just a Meme frenzy, the hype will fade quickly.
If it can grow real assets and real demand—
then it's more than just a "Chain" story.
$ETH $HOOD $ARB #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 On September 3rd, Robinhood Chain's single-day on-chain revenue reached $4.01 million, ranking first across all chains according to DeFiLlama.
At the same time, the combined on-chain revenue of Solana, BSC, Ethereum, and Base was only $288,000.
A chain that has been live for just over two months generated 13.9 times the single-day revenue of these four major chains combined.
Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) stock surged 16.57% on September 3rd, closing at $124.72, a new high for the year. Morgan Stanley raised its target price from $124 to $150. Piper Sandler followed with a target of $145.
On-chain data exploded, stock price soared, and institutions collectively turned bullish.
But today, I want to discuss something different—the three hidden concerns behind the celebration.
Concern One: Meme-driven, not RWA-driven
What is Robinhood Chain's promotional message? RWA (Real World Assets) on-chain—tokenized stocks, ETFs, 24/7 trading.
But the data tells a different story.
In July, Meme coins accounted for 51% of Robinhood Chain's spot trading volume, while RWA only accounted for 5%.
Even more striking—48% of the RWA trading volume came from liquidity pools composed of RWA and Meme coins. In other words, half of that 5% "real asset" trading was also driven by Memes.
At launch, Meme coins once accounted for 85% of trading volume, with RWA only 1%.
A public chain claiming to "put stocks on-chain" is essentially a Meme casino.
PONS—the token launch platform on Robinhood Chain—rose 300% in the past week, accounting for 63.9% of all crypto Launchpad fees. After PONS V2 launched, 80% of protocol revenue is used to buy back and burn PONS.
This is a perfect closed loop: the hotter the Meme, the more tokens launched, the higher the fees, the stronger the PONS buy pressure.
The question is—how long can the Meme hype last?
When the tide goes out, what remains on-chain?
Concern Two: The overall crypto business is shrinking
No matter how impressive Robinhood Chain is, it cannot hide one fact:
In Q2 2026, Robinhood's crypto business revenue dropped 38% year-over-year to $100 million, accounting for only 8% of total revenue.
Retail crypto trading volume fell 36% year-over-year, and crypto assets' share of total customer assets dropped to a historic low of 7%.
Even the event contract business launched just last year generated more revenue than crypto in Q2.
Robinhood Chain's cumulative fee revenue in two months is $13.05 million. Annualized over the past 30 days, that's about $110 million.
Sounds like a lot, right?
But the known Robinhood Chain-related revenue annualizes to only about $54.8 million, just 14% of Robinhood's crypto business annual revenue.
An L2 with the highest on-chain revenue contributes only 14% to its parent company's crypto business.
Robinhood Chain is a highlight, but Robinhood's overall crypto business is still shrinking. Is this chain a "new growth engine" or just a "fig leaf"?
Concern Three: The valuation is no longer cheap
GuruFocus's GF Value model shows the current HOOD stock price at $124.72, while the intrinsic value estimate is only $78.18.
Overvalued by about 57.4%.
Forward P/E is about 50x, price-to-book ratio 11.4x—the market is already pricing in "perfect execution over the next few years."
Morgan Stanley's $150 target price is based on a probability-weighted EPS estimate of $7.99 in 2031, multiplied by 25.
Using earnings five years from now to justify today's stock price is itself an optimistic assumption.
Of course, institutions are collectively bullish, ratings are upgraded, and target prices raised—these are facts. Robinhood's fundamentals are indeed improving—Q2 total revenue hit a record $1.31 billion.
But the short-term rally has already priced in too much expectation.
A few honest words at the end:
Robinhood Chain's two-month performance deserves applause.
Single-day revenue crushing the combined total of four major chains is not something just anyone can achieve.
But there is a huge gap between speculative hype and real demand.
Memes can bring traffic, but can that traffic convert into real financial demand for RWA? With 10% of revenue shared with the Arbitrum ecosystem, how much profit margin does Robinhood Chain itself have? The overall crypto business is shrinking—can one chain reverse the trend?
These questions cannot be answered by two months of impressive data.
The real test will come in 6 months, 12 months—when the Meme wave recedes, what remains on-chain?
Long-term optimistic, short-term not chasing.
Wait for the first real pullback, then judge whether it is a "golden pit" or a "bubble burst."
$HOOD $ARB $ETH #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 24. Akash Network — $YAK T
Akash is building a decentralized marketplace for cloud computing resources. The idea is straightforward: connect available computing capacity with people who need it. The difficult part is competing with centralized cloud providers on reliability and ease of use.23. Ocean Protocol — $SINOC EAN
Ocean Protocol focuses on data sharing and data ownership in the digital economy. As AI becomes increasingly dependent on high-quality datasets, creating better ways to exchange data could become important. Privacy and ownership remain central challenges.Waller's words basically put the September suspense on the table in advance. The meaning is straightforward: if the August inflation data doesn't look good, the Fed might actually raise rates in September; If the data is okay, then just keep holding back. Today, let's talk about how to view this and its impact on the crypto world. Let's start with who Waller is. Among Fed governors, the hawkish ones carry weight; many times the hype he releases is basically a rehearsal for the policy direction to come. This time, he specifically named August inflation and decided whether to raise rates in September, indicating that the Fed itself is not yet consensually and is just waiting for data to give direction. It's not the kind of "we'll definitely raise rates" or "absolutely not," but "the data calls the shots." This statement itself is a way to manage expectations, stabilizing market sentiment first and preventing everyone from moving around early. So what should we watch in August inflation data? The main points are: year-on-year CPI, core CPI year-on-year, and month-on-month growth. Year-on-year data has a base effect and may look okay, but month-on-month growth requires extra caution. If the month-on-month data suddenly jumps—such as energy prices rebounding, rents not falling, and services inflation remaining sticky—it means the risk of a second rise in inflation is high. The Fed's biggest concern is core services inflation, especially housing, because rent plays a significant role in the U.S. CPI and falls very slowly. Food and energy are more volatile, but they don't fully determine the direction. Another thing to look at is inflation expectations. If August data comes out and the market's inflation expectations for the coming year rise,3 Core Drivers of This Round of Rebound
1. Marginal Improvement in Macro Liquidity (Main Trigger)
- On August 19, the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations to ≥$4 billion, easing upward pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting duration-sensitive, high-beta crypto risk assets
- Market pricing shifted from "continuous rate hikes/high rates for a long time" to a phase of betting on liquidity easing; BTC currently has a high correlation with Nasdaq tech stocks (>0.75), characterized as a high-leverage risk asset, not a safe haven
- Current divergence: September FOMC still has a probability of rate hikes; inflation data and interest rate path remain the biggest macro variables
2. Spot ETF Funds Shift from Large Outflows to Inflows
- June: -$4.51 billion net outflow, core funding pressure for this downturn
- July: Slightly positive +$170 million, halting the decline
- August: +$3.52 billion net inflow, strongest single-month inflow this year, an important spot buying support for the rebound (BlackRock IBIT is the main inflow driver)
- Early September: Short-term slight outflow again, indicating funds have not formed a sustained one-way inflow, representing a recovery inflow rather than a new large increment
3. Full Deleveraging + On-Chain Token Structure Biased Toward Long-Term Holding
- Near July low: Rising proportion of loss-making supply, widespread short-term holder shakeout, accumulation of futures short positions, subsequently triggering short squeeze liquidations
Gold ETF holdings have increased by nearly 10 tons, and options volatility is being closely watched again, indicating that risk-hedging trades are getting a bit crowded
I don't think strong gold necessarily means the market is about to crash. It’s more like many funds are continuing to buy risk assets while simultaneously buying insurance for themselves. The problem is, when too many people buy insurance, it itself becomes a crowded trade
ETFs are slow money inflows, options are fast money amplifiers. The former buys peace of mind, the latter buys volatility. Once the two overlap, gold is no longer just a steady safe-haven asset but also becomes a position traders crowd against each other
So when I look at gold now, I ask less “can it still rise” and more “how urgent is this buying wave.” The more urgent the hedging, the easier it is to backfire and hit itself when the market takes a breather
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 If a bull market could only choose one track, I wouldn't bet on a single coin, but would build a triangular combination—three assets, three completely different profit-making logics. Have you ever thought that within the same rally, there are actually three completely different types of money hidden? Friday's non-farm payroll was the last key set of data before the FOMC, so the market was actually waiting for a "confirmation signal" this week, not for direction. At this delicate moment, I reorganized my portfolio structure and found that truly smart allocation isn't choosing sides, but letting different assets play their roles. BTC buys certainty. Institutional channels are fully open, ETFs continue to see net inflows, Strategy is still buying, and BitMine is hoarding. This is no longer about "whether someone will take over," but about when prices fall, funds are willing to buy. It's like a ballast stone, keeping the whole portfolio from capsizing. I noticed a detail: the depth of recent pullbacks is shallow, and buying is rising, indicating that the bottom consensus is being solidified by institutional funds. ETH is buying the future of the application layer. Stablecoins, RWA tokenization, DeFi liquidation—almost all on-chain economic activity runs within the Ethereum ecosystem. Twenty-one financial institutions plan to issue dollar stablecoins, and the underlying infrastructure for issuance and settlement will most likely pass through the Ethereum network. As long as the on-chain economy is alive, ETH will have value support. This logic isn't as "hard" as BTC, but the ceiling depends on the speed of application deployment—if stablecoin issuance really growsBitcoin has strongly climbed back above $81,000, surging rapidly from around $77K to $81K+ in the short term, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 4% at one point. This recent rally may not be just retail FOMO. The macro environment behind the market is quietly changing: 👉 Clear weakening of the US dollar The yen has recently strengthened rapidly, with the dollar index once falling back to around 99. While the dollar is under pressure, BTC, as a high-beta risk asset, has once again attracted capital attention. 👉 Federal Reserve rate hike expectations have clearly cooled. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently stated that if inflation continues to improve, he prefers to keep rates unchanged at the September meeting. Market pricing in a rate hike in September has also dropped from over 63% earlier this week to nearly 50%. 👉 Funds return to risk assets After BTC broke through $80K, bears were heavily squeezed, further amplifying upward momentum. The US spot BTC ETF also saw an initial inflow of about $277M on Thursday, indicating that institutional demand is regaining attention. But I won't rush to announce a full return of the bull market here. $81K–$83K remains a significant resistance zone, especially since supply near previous highs still exists. Reuters' technical analysis also points out that if BTC can effectively break through around $82.8K, the upside potential could open up further; otherwise, caution should still be taken for a rally and pullback. So now is the most important thing$BTC Last night's market reminded me of 2015.
Not the price, but the logic—when the market's reaction to "bad news" turns into "good news," it indicates a trend change. The August nonfarm payrolls at -23,000 would be a disaster in a normal year, but tonight the market interpreted it as "the Fed can pause rate hikes." This shift in interpretation is a hundred times more important than the data itself.
US Treasury yields fell from their highs, the dollar weakened, and risk assets took off across the board. The logic chain is clear: weak employment → no rate hikes → loose liquidity → buying stocks and crypto. The question is, how long can this chain last? What if the CPI data on September 11 exceeds expectations again?
I won't change my position just because of a one-night surge. Tonight only confirmed one signal: the market has priced in "no rate hikes." The next question is—whether this pricing is correct. $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% #比特币再破80000美元
I am Feige, disciple of Brother Ci. BTC has once again broken through 80000 dollars.
The market's expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen back, providing macro support for this rebound. After Waller's speech, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 70% to 50.2%, U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed back into risk assets.
However, market views are clearly divided. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua believes the bull market trend has already started, with around 86000 dollars as the next resistance. Jiang Zhuoer reduced all BTC positions near 82050 dollars, believing there is a risk of a pullback after ETF funds weaken. In August, the U.S. spot BTC ETF overall maintained net inflows, but at the beginning of September, funds began to fluctuate in both directions, and institutional buying has yet to form continuous momentum.
Bitwise data shows the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to the highest level since 2020, supporting the narrative of hedging against currency depreciation. BTC is shifting from a risk asset to a currency depreciation hedge asset, and this structural change is more important than short-term price fluctuations.
The current core contradiction lies in whether institutional funds linked with gold can support BTC in absorbing sell orders around 80000 to 82500 dollars. If it can hold above 82000 with volume, the direction will open up. If it repeatedly surges and falls back, a temporary top may form near 82000. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Feige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL 比特币从此前约 $77K 附近快速反弹，一度冲到 $81.8K 左右，24 小时涨幅接近 6%。 这波上涨背后，不只是买盘推动。 最新数据显示，加密市场单日空头清算超过 $415M，其中 BTC 空头清算约 $200M，大量杠杆空单被迫止损，进一步放大了上涨幅度。 宏观方面也出现了一些变化。 美联储官员 Christopher Waller 表态偏向暂缓加息，市场对 9 月加息的预期从此前约 63% 降至 50% 左右，给风险资产带来了一定支撑。 但我暂时不会急着喊牛市回归。 BTC 上方 $82K–$86K 仍然存在明显供应压力，而近期上涨有相当一部分来自空头回补。与此同时，美伊局势再次升温，布伦特原油已经接近 $96，如果地缘冲突继续升级，通胀和利率预期可能重新成为市场压力。 所以我的看法很简单： 突破 $82K 才更值得确认，站不稳就要警惕“假突破”。 市场现在很兴奋，但我更愿意先观察。 别急着追高。👀 #BTC #Bitcoin #比特币 #加密货币 #Crypto #BTCBreakout$CHIP at $0.05875 is close to the level I care about most. The easy trade is to see the AI narrative and chase strength. I wouldn’t. The more interesting setup is whether buyers can turn $0.060 into support, not whether they can briefly trade above it. That distinction matters because CHIP still has a large gap between circulating and maximum supply. If demand keeps accelerating, that supply can be absorbed. If momentum cools, the same structure becomes an overhead risk. So my plan is simple: $An L2 launched just two months ago has a single-day revenue exceeding the combined total of the four major public chains. This is not overtaking on a curve; this is switching tracks for a dimensionality reduction strike.
Brothers, let me tell you something.
Yesterday, Robinhood Chain's single-day on-chain revenue was $4.01 million.
What does that mean?
It's 13.9 times the combined revenue of Base + Solana + Ethereum + BSC.
You read that right. An L2 launched only two months ago took on the four major public chains solo—and won by 13 times.
In the entire crypto space, only two protocols have 24-hour revenue exceeding it—Tether ($16.23 million) and Circle ($6.57 million).
A chain built by a brokerage is crushing all L1/L2s.
Let's look at how absurd the data is:
📊 DEX 24-hour trading volume is $1.851 billion, hitting a record high for the 6th consecutive day. Second in the entire chain, only behind Solana.
📊 Single-day chain fees are $4.45 million, while Solana + BSC + Ethereum + Base combined only reach $1.49 million.
📊 Launched just two months ago, cumulative fee revenue is $13.05 million. Annualized over the past 30 days, that's $110 million.
📊 Ethereum ecosystem revenue ranking over the past 7 days: Robinhood Chain $8.26 million, Ethereum mainnet $2.48 million, Base $840,000—month-over-month growth of 1653%.
Even more astonishing is the efficiency:
TVL is only $720 million, supporting a daily trading volume of $1.8 billion. The capital turnover efficiency is abnormally high.
Where is the money coming from?
It's not institutions "dressing up the storefront."
It's Meme, Launchpad, and trading terminals driving it—real retail trading demand is exploding on-chain.
Pons, the token launch platform on Robinhood Chain, processed $4.54 billion in trading volume in less than two months. The PONS token surged nearly 1300% in one month, with a market cap surpassing $500 million.
Uniswap founder Hayden Adams tweeted that Uniswap's 24-hour trading volume on Robinhood Chain is close to $2 billion.
Robinhood Chain now accounts for 51% of Uniswap v4's total network trading volume.
This is not "copycat season" hype—these are real users voting with real money on-chain.
Robinhood itself is also taking off:
On Thursday, the stock closed at $124.72, up 16.57% in a single day, with a market cap of $112.1 billion.
Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating from "hold" to "overweight," raising the target price from $124 directly to $150. Piper Sandler followed with a target of $145.
Wall Street is revaluing Robinhood—treating it as a public chain.
Robinhood already has 13 business lines with annual revenues exceeding $100 million, and Robinhood Chain is about to become the 14th.
A company with 13 business lines over $100 million just launched its 14th in two months.
There's another overlooked winner: ARB.
Robinhood Chain is built on the Arbitrum tech stack and must return 10% of net protocol revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem (8% to the DAO treasury, 2% to the developer guild).
Based on current cumulative revenue, Arbitrum has received about $1.3 million in dividends.
ARB has risen 46.7% in two weeks.
The heat of one chain is supporting the holders of another chain. This might be the most hidden alpha of the year.
But to be honest:
This is not the proportion a "healthy ecosystem" should have.
Under the Meme market, trading is highly concentrated, and arbitrage bots are aggressively grabbing block space—this is typical "traffic-driven prosperity."
Robinhood Chain's vision is RWA and tokenized stocks. But right now, it is essentially a huge Meme casino.
OKX Wallet offers a limited-time full subsidy on Gas fees, Binance Wallet launched a 20% fee discount—the top wallets are competing for traffic, betting that this chain can retain users.
Can it retain them?
Unknown.
But one thing is certain:
An L2 launched just two months ago has a single-day revenue exceeding the combined total of the four major public chains running for years.
This is not overtaking on a curve.
This is switching tracks for a dimensionality reduction strike.
$BTC $HOOD $ARB #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 $BTC ️ September has historically been a "troublesome autumn" for the crypto market, and this year might be no exception. Do you think Friday's non-farm payroll data will be a bombshell?
Historical data shows that September is one of the worst-performing months for BTC (average return -2.95%).
With the current surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield, the market is even starting to price in the possibility of a rate hike in September. Friday's non-farm payroll data hangs like the Sword of Damocles overhead.
Before there is any substantial easing in macro liquidity, the high volatility of altcoins will also be amplified during downturns.
Downside protection in the options market is concentrated in the 68,000-75,000 range, indicating that smart money is also guarding against a short-term pullback.
At this point, managing position size and keeping enough cash flow is more important than blindly chasing highs. $ETH $SOL #AVGODipsSNOWPops, Snowflake raises guidance #RobinhoodChainRevenue Brothers and sisters, do you know which was the craziest stock in the US market yesterday?
Not Nvidia, not Tesla.
It was Robinhood. It surged 16.57% overnight, hitting $124.72, with its market value increasing by over $9 billion in a single day.
How can a brokerage firm rise like this?
Many think it's because of good earnings. Wrong. The earnings report was released long ago.
The real reason took Wall Street two years to understand——
🔵 First driver: Institutional investors collectively turning bullish
On September 1, Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood's rating from “Hold” up two levels to “Overweight,” raising the target price from $124 directly to $150.
Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys and his team reasoned that prediction markets are becoming Robinhood's new growth engine.
On the same day, Piper Sandler followed up, raising the target price from $135 to $145.
Within two days, Wall Street formed a rare consensus. Bernstein had also previously reiterated a bullish stance.
But what really drove the market crazy wasn’t the ratings—it was this number below.
🔴 Second driver: One chain dominating all public chains
On September 3, Robinhood Chain’s on-chain revenue for a single day was $4.01 million.
What does that mean?
It’s 13.9 times the combined total revenue of Base, Solana, Ethereum, and BSC.
You read that right. An L2 chain launched just two months ago, with daily revenue crushing the total of four mature public chains.
In two months since launch, cumulative fee revenue has reached $13.05 million. Annualized over the past 30 days, that’s about $110 million in annual revenue.
Even more outrageous—over the past 7 days, Robinhood Chain earned $8.26 million, a 1653% week-over-week increase, ranking first among all chains in the Ethereum ecosystem.
One chain accounts for 38% of the entire ecosystem’s revenue.
And this chain belongs to a brokerage.
🟡 Third driver: The “money printer” of prediction markets
Morgan Stanley especially emphasized one thing—prediction markets.
The American football season is about to start, and NCAA is coming soon. Robinhood users can trade prediction market contracts directly in the app.
Hundreds of millions of retail users + on-chain settlement + prediction markets = what?
An endless money printer with built-in traffic and no user acquisition cost.
Traditional brokerages doing prediction markets? They need to pass compliance, build systems, and attract users.
Robinhood doing prediction markets? Open the app, and users are already inside.
💡 Core logic: Wall Street finally understands
Robinhood is doing something traditional finance has never done——
Using hundreds of millions of retail users to feed the on-chain ecosystem, then using on-chain revenue to feed back the stock price.
This is not “brokerage + crypto.”
This is “brokerage = chain.”
Even more ruthless—Robinhood Chain is based on the Arbitrum tech stack and plans to share 10% of net revenue with the Arbitrum ecosystem.
ARB has risen 46.7% in two weeks. Why? Because Wall Street realized: the more money Robinhood Chain makes, the more ARB holders get.
One chain supports the token price of another chain. This has never happened in crypto history.
Finally, a painful truth——
Two years ago, everyone mocked Robinhood for making a chain as “off track.”
Now, this “off track” chain’s daily revenue crushes the total of the four major public chains.
Wall Street took two years to understand: Robinhood is not just a brokerage; it is an L2 that is devouring the public chain sector.
And the most ironic thing is—the killer feature of this L2 is not some technological innovation.
It’s the 23 million users who can use it just by opening the app.
$BTC $HOOD $ARB #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 SK Hynix starts telling the story about the “data bottleneck”!
#Bitcoin breaks $80,000 again
$BTC near 81,000, surged nearly 5% in one go yesterday, but futures leverage did not increase correspondingly, which is more important than the pure price rise. This wave includes both short covering and spot capital relay. The biggest variable now is tonight's non-farm payrolls; as long as employment data doesn't push up rate hike expectations again, the macro environment will temporarily favor the bulls.
$ETH also rose more than 5% intraday, finally not just BTC performing solo. The previous end of 12 consecutive ETF inflows did make the market worry about cooling funds, but ETH's chip logic remains unchanged: staking, ETFs, and institutional holdings are all reducing liquid supply.
$SKHYNIX today directly shifted the story from AI bottlenecks being insufficient computing power to insufficient data speed. As models move more towards Agents and real-time inference, demand for HBM, high-bandwidth flash, and enterprise-grade SSDs grows, so SK Hynix's real growth point is no longer just HBM. Samsung is narrowing the HBM share gap, and going forward the market will focus more on product iteration and market share rather than just industry prosperity.
$XAU cooled slightly today after last night's surge; tonight's non-farm payrolls will determine the next step for rate expectations; on $OKB, X Layer just launched 19 stock, commodity, and crypto perpetual markets, adding real trading scenarios to the ecosystem; $QQQ rose 1.2% last night, yield decline eased tech valuations, but the drop after Broadcom's earnings also shows the AI rally has started to pick winners based on performance.
#Bitcoin breaks $80,000 again The Federal Reserve Holds Steady, Crypto Market Reprices Risk
The Federal Reserve sends subtle signals as Governor Waller hints that if inflation eases, he will support pausing rate hikes. Market expectations quickly adjust, with the probability of a September rate hike plummeting to 48%. This means for the crypto world that the previously sustained tightening pressure is loosening, and the valuation anchor for risk assets is shifting.
$BTC rebounds to around $80,000, but the real battle lies at the $82,800 resistance zone. A breakout would open the path to $90,000, while a failure could lead to a retest of the $75,000 support.
I am more focused on the internal structure: if $ETH starts to strengthen relatively, it indicates funds are rotating from safe havens to risk assets. At that time, closely watch whether $SOL, $AVAX, $NEAR, and other Layer 1s follow the rise, rather than just passively rebound.
The DeFi sector is the liquidity touchstone—activity levels of $AAVE and $UNI, and the chip exchanges of $CRV, will verify whether funds are truly entering. $LINK, $TAO, and $RENDER show greater resilience when risk appetite recovers.
Key conclusion: The market does not necessarily wait for rate cuts; just the fading of rate hike expectations can trigger short covering. But next week's inflation data remains a variable—if core CPI exceeds expectations, Waller's "pause" window may quickly close.
At this moment, I am watching both the $75,000 support and the inflation curve. The direction is undecided, but volatility is on the way.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 🚨 ARB revenue is heating up — but don’t confuse ecosystem revenue with token value.
Robinhood Chain’s on-chain volume has surged, and suddenly the ARB revenue narrative is everywhere.
On the surface, it looks extremely bullish.
More activity on Robinhood Chain means more attention flowing toward the Arbitrum ecosystem, and that creates a much bigger question for $ARB:
Is Arbitrum actually building a business model that can generate value from other chains?
#DailyOrbit Just glanced at crude oil, it plummeted, and all major commodities are crashing.
This signal is not good, global recession expectations are heating up again, and the stock market is the first to falter.
The consumer sector led the decline today, even Maotai couldn't hold up, and northbound funds are rushing out.
The crypto market linkage is even more direct, $BTC followed US stock futures, wiping out all gains from yesterday within an hour.
A guy in my group who went long got liquidated, sent a crying face, then no one responded.
In this situation now, with a news vacuum, it's purely a capital game, with volume on both ups and downs.
An abnormal point is that $XRP actually turned green against the trend, rumored to have new progress in the legal battle.
But I don't chase it; chasing highs in this market is just giving away your head.
On the stock side, high dividends are again being taken as a safe haven, but after rising so much, it's hollow.
I looked around this afternoon, no substantial positive news, but there is a rumor that reserve requirement ratio might be cut next week.
However, the market didn't react, indicating everyone is numb and no longer believes.
I think now is just to wait it out, waiting for an extreme emotional point, like a volume panic sell-off.
Then reach out to scoop up some, better than blindly messing around now.
$DOT is bottoming with the market, volatility is getting lower and lower, almost turning into a stablecoin.
The end of the session is probably still choppy, no big drama.
I withdrew all my orders, waiting for the US stock market's PPI data tonight.
Today is suitable for zoning out, not for trading, wrapping up.Non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow
Both BTC and ETH surged significantly, market sentiment is high
Before any news release, the market tends to consume expectations in advance
There will be another small rally when tomorrow's news is announced
I will choose to short at the high after tomorrow's news release because the truly core heavy news will be released mid-month. Once the momentum from the non-farm data fades, the market will fall into panic again. $CORE 150M Burned, Price Flat – Core's Trust Problem
Hard fork burned 150M CORE. Price didn't budge.
Why? It's cleanup, not a buyback.
Validators exploited a reward loophole, minting excess tokens. Core rushed to burn them. Five exchanges paused trading. Still no disclosure: how many were minted? Did any hit the market?
Same pattern. Reward bugs. Staking freezes. Always reacting, never transparent.
Miners are done trusting.
Don't mistake damage control for a rally. Brothers, combining the last July non-farm actual of -23,000, and looking at this ADP of only 38,000, initial claims of 206,000, and the market's current expectation of about 55,000–65,000, I personally lean towards this non-farm payroll not being particularly strong.
My subjective forecast: non-farm payroll 40,000–70,000, leaning around 50,000; unemployment rate 4.1%–4.2%, wage growth most likely to remain moderate.
In terms of the market, I think tonight there might first be a spike before choosing a direction. If below 50,000, rate cut expectations will heat up, $BTC looks to break 82,300 then 83,000–84,000, $ETH breaking 2,530 aiming for 2,560–2,600; if 50,000–80,000, it might first surge then consolidate; if suddenly over 100,000, beware of renewed rate hike speculation, BTC focus at 80,000, ETH focus at 2,500.
So my scenario remains: data slightly weak probability is higher, after tonight's sharp fluctuations it will be favorable for BTC and ETH. But non-farm payrolls are most prone to spikes up and down, so don't chase based on the first 5-minute candlestick.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $CORE 150 million burn can't boost the market? Core's trust crisis is brewing
On the surface, it's a “positive”: To fix the validator over-mining loophole, Core DAO hard forked and burned over 150 million CORE. But the market simply doesn't buy it, and the coin price remains weak.
Where is the problem?
This is not a proactive burn, but crisis damage control. First, a few validators maliciously exploited the reward mechanism loophole to obtain excess tokens, multiple exchanges urgently suspended deposits and withdrawals, and then were forced to hard fork to fix it. The entire process was extremely opaque—Core has yet to disclose how many excess tokens were issued or whether they have entered the market.
The official side repeatedly breaks trust with miners and the community. From the reward distribution loophole to the suspension of staking yields, every time it’s a “after-the-fact fix,” giving the impression of a self-directed drama, breaking and saving at the same time. The market votes with its feet; the 150 million burn has become a silent response to the overdrawn trust.
Be cautious and don't mistake crisis management for good news. Grayscale, do you still think this market belongs to you alone?
After so many years of stubbornness, do you think the Bitcoin ETF business is still your exclusive domain?
Holding onto a high fee rate of 1.5% comes at the cost of long-term capital outflow; nearly 440,000 bitcoins have flowed to BlackRock in the past two years.
To capture the market, you have to act like BlackRock—cut fees far below Grayscale’s level, with an ultra-low rate of 0.25%, combined with top-tier channels and brand effect. In just two years, they absorbed 790,000 bitcoins.
With inflows and outflows, BlackRock has directly reached six times Grayscale’s scale, becoming the top Bitcoin ETF asset manager.
Here is a key signal: the bitcoins of big institutions like BlackRock and Grayscale are all custodied on Coinbase.
So, a premium on Bitcoin inflows on CB means:
Institutions are putting real money in
Liquidity is genuinely increasing
Buying power is growing stronger
In the 70,000 to 80,000 range, a new batch of institutional funds is providing support.
The buying at this level is solid, not contract-driven manipulation, so the price is unlikely to fall much further.
Therefore, buying with low leverage is the right move; the bull market will come, albeit a bit late.BTC has once again climbed above $80K, with the core catalyst coming from Fed official Waller sending a dovish signal. The September rate hike expectation has dropped to about 50%, US Treasury yields have fallen in tanse, and risk asset sentiment has clearly improved. But the market is not without disagreement: recently BTC once surged to $81K+, while the $82K–$83K area remains an important resistance zone. Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to a recent high, indicating that funds are trading the "safe haven + liquidity" logic simultaneously. 👉 So the real focus now is not whether the 80K has been broken, but whether it can hold above 80K and continue to break through the resistance near 82K. Do you think this is a new round of rallying or another false breakout? 👀 #Bitcoin #BTCTomorrow’s NFP could decide whether BTC gets another leg up… or gets slammed back toward $75K. 👀
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report drops tomorrow at 20:30, and it’s the last major employment signal before the FOMC.
The market is expecting around 55K jobs.
I’m more cautious.
Based on the weakness we’ve seen across recent economic data, I think the actual number could come in closer to 35K.
#DailyOrbit #BTCBreaks80KAgain BTC briefly crossed $80K again as fading Fed-hike expectations pulled Treasury yields lower—but the signals around this move feel unusually divided 👀
US spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows in August, yet early-September flows have turned two-way. At the same time, Yi Lihua sees the broader trend continuing, while Jiang Zhuoer reportedly sold his entire BTC position near $82,050, citing softer ETF demand.
What caught my attention is BTC’s 90-day correlation with gold, which Bitwise says is now at its highest level since 2020 🥇 That suggests macro uncertainty may be influencing BTC differently than a typical risk-asset rally.
To me, $80K is less important as a milestone than as a test of whether demand can remain consistent. One side sees momentum; another sees weakening support.
I’m curious whether BTC keeps trading with gold—or returns to following liquidity and tech sentiment more closely.The four-year cycle isn't slowing down; it's failing. On September 3, on-chain analyst Willy Woo put forward a view: BTC may be shifting from a four-year cycle to a six- to eight-year cycle. The reason is that annual new supply has dropped to about 0.8% of total supply and will soon fall to 0.4%, so the halving supply shock is no longer causing a big wave. This claim quickly went viral in the crypto community. Now, let's reconsider it from another perspective: the four-year cycle may not be slowing down, it might be failing. The halving narrative is fading, but what replaces it is not a "longer cycle." Woo's logical chain is this: BTC's annual new supply has dropped from the early teens to 0.8%, and will soon fall to 0.4%. The ripples of the halving are getting smaller and smaller, and they can no longer control the bull and bear rhythms. So the cycle will extend from four years to six to eight years, matching the debt cycle of traditional finance. This reasoning sounds reasonable, but there is a key flaw: the marginal effect of halving is diminishing, not that the cycle itself stretches linearly. Another possibility is that the cycle will simply disappear. Or more precisely, the cycle is no longer driven by halving but taken over by other forces, but these rhythms are not six to eight years, but can occur every three years, five years, or even ten years. Equating "halving failure" with "extending the cycle to six to eight years" is an overly optimistic graft. A more pessimistic interpretation is: the cycle still exists, but the patterns have already been disrupted. Four data points are not enough to draw an iron rule. BTC was born in 2009 and has only experienced four halvings by 2026Wow! Real revenue has entered the treasury!
$ARB rose 50% in a week and surged another 9.5% today to break 0.146, bouncing directly from the dead pit at 0.07.
Robinhood Chain has brought in the first real money. This chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, with the mainnet launching in July. Daily fees once surged to $1.9 million (usually only $100,000). According to the protocol, 10% of net revenue is returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, and 8% goes to the DAO treasury. In two months, it has distributed $1.3 million to the ARB ecosystem; the DAO's revenue for the first half of the year was $6.19 million with a gross margin of 97%.
The RWA narrative supports it. Tokenized real assets on Arbitrum have exceeded $1 billion, with over 2,000 assets ranked first, 478 million transactions in half a year, and stablecoin monthly transfers exceeding $7 billion. This is not air; it is settlement volume.
However, RSI at 83.6 is overbought, and a significant portion of Robinhood Chain's volume comes from trading bots and launchpads, not real equity trading, raising suspicion of wash trading; on 9/23, 139.2 million tokens (about $15.2 million, 1.4% of supply) will unlock.
In 7 days, watch for 0.1406 (Fibonacci resistance); if it holds 0.13, it can still push to 0.159; if broken, it will return to 0.105. The narrative is real, but the chips are dirty; don't hold faith for the short term #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCBreaks80KAgain #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC 因为这轮行情里，高杠杆似乎已经被清理了不少。 BTC 前段时间反复在 $77K–$80K 区间震荡，价格磨人、情绪也容易被来回收割。但从衍生品市场来看，结构正在发生变化：近期 BTC 期货未平仓量有所回落，杠杆水平相比此前更加克制，说明一部分过度拥挤的仓位已经被洗掉。 更值得关注的是，9月3日 BTC 强势重新站上 $80K，盘中一度触及约 $81.35K；同时，期货与永续合约未平仓量一周下降约 1.8%，意味着这次上涨并非单纯依靠疯狂加杠杆推动。 🔥 所以我现在更关注的是： • $80K 能否从压力位变成支撑位 • 杠杆是否重新快速堆积 • 现货资金能否继续接力 • $82K–$83K 关键阻力能否真正突破 如果杠杆继续保持低位，而现货买盘持续增强，那么即使 BTC 短线再次回踩，也未必意味着行情结构已经转空。 当然，去杠杆 ≠ 不会下跌，只是意味着市场发生连环爆仓的脆弱性可能暂时降低。 👀 真正值得警惕的，反而是价格上涨的同时杠杆重新疯狂膨胀。 #BTC #Bitcoin #比特币 #BTC行情 #加密货币 #DailyOrbit