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ZEC +16.88%, LIT +17%, both soared on the same day September 3: Fed's Waller hinted no rate hike, no action BTC 76,000 → 81,000, 24h short liquidations $416 million. High beta (β) assets surged exponentially: ZEC secured the first-ever privacy coin spot ETF (ZCSH), attracting $53 million in three days after listing, while the network only added 657,000 coins in a year. Plus SEC closed the case in January, and 30% of circulating supply locked in shielded pool—supply side locked down by three locks simultaneously. LIT: 100% of fees used for buyback and burn, first burn destroyed 6.3% of circulating supply, half of circulating supply staked, real tradable chips possibly only a quarter. Robinhood's traffic closed loop. The reason for the surge is the same: strong narrative, tight supply, heavy leverage. (ZEC futures/spot trading ratio 8:1, LIT unlocks 500 million coins in December) $ZEC $BTC $LIT In the past 24 hours, BTC has surged from around $77,000, reaching a high of over $82,000. The core reason is still the easing of macro expectations, with Vice President Pence publicly calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; Waller also stated that as long as the upcoming inflation data does not rebound, the September policy meeting is likely to hold steady. The cooling of rate hike expectations, the decline in US Treasury yields, combined with short covering, have collectively amplified BTC's gains. However, whether the rally can continue depends on next week's CPI data; if the data is moderate, expectations for a pause in rate hikes will be further solidified; if inflation rebounds, the recent gains could quickly be given back. Then there's the wild card of Iran—if oil prices rise, inflation expectations will be reignited. Let's just hope Trump stays quiet recently and doesn't add more trouble to the market. Brothers, both BTC and ETH broke through key levels today Just checked the data, $BTC is currently at $81,200, $ETH is currently at $2,506. In the past 24 hours, BTC rose over 5%, returning above $80,000; ETH rose nearly 5%, reclaiming the $2,500 level Core driver: sharp drop in rate hike expectations Last week, initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, signaling a cooling labor market. Fed Governor Waller stated that if inflation improves in August, he would support keeping rates unchanged. Market bets on a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63% to 50%. This contrasts sharply with last week's hawkish remarks from Waller, sparking a rebound in risk assets In the past 24 hours, about $415 million in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with ETH and XRP shorts being the most concentrated. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to 97-98%, indicating this rebound relies more on macro expectations than crypto's own narrative. August spot ETF net inflows were about $3.5 billion, the largest monthly inflow in over a year, providing a capital base for the rise Technically: BTC resistance above at 82,000-82,500, with selling pressure near 82,000; ETH resistance above at 2,540-2,560 Trading advice: BTC pullback to 80,000-80,200 to stabilize and try long, stop loss at 79,000; ETH pullback to 2,480-2,500 to stabilize and try long, stop loss at 2,450. Friday's nonfarm payroll data remains a key variable #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 [Pharaoh's Market Watch] How did Robinhood Chain suddenly become so popular? ARB surged 30% in two days, a storyline even more magical than Pharaoh's pyramids. On-chain data really exploded. On September 3, DEX 24-hour trading volume hit $1.851 billion, marking the sixth consecutive day of record highs. TVL surpassed $740 million, nearly doubling since August 1. Where did this volume come from? A new Meme play involving crypto-stock pairs. The Meme coin pool no longer pairs with ETH or USDC, but with tokenized stocks—so when you buy Meme, you indirectly buy NVDA. As of September 1, about 17.2% of the on-chain supply of 19 high-liquidity stock tokens was locked in Meme pools. Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum Orbit technology; 10% of protocol net income flows directly back into the Arbitrum ecosystem, 8% goes to the DAO treasury, and 2% to the developer guild. ARB earned about $1.3 million in revenue share from this wave, rising 46.7% in two weeks, with a single-day surge of 30% on September 1. Pharaoh's one-sentence summary: Robinhood Chain's strategy links Meme traffic, RWA assets, and ARB revenue share into a closed loop. But don't forget, 139 million ARB will unlock on September 23. Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (September 4) Bears dominated all day, starting with a 26.7x bear crush in 1 hour, then a 4-hour avalanche down to 1.78x near equilibrium, a second surge to 4.14x in 12 hours, and narrowing to 3.26x at 24 hours close—N-shaped oscillation followed by high-level stabilization but weakening momentum at the margin. The high concentration shows most liquidations were completed within the 12-hour window, with $110 million in liquidations hitting a recent peak. Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations 1 hour $892,500 $32,200 $860,300 4 hours $9,709,400 $3,493,100 $6,216,300 12 hours $92,207,900 $17,934,900 $74,273,000 24 hours $110,000,000 $25,646,100 $83,572,900 1-hour bears crushed at 26.7x with $892,500 volume; 4-hour bear avalanche down to 1.78x near equilibrium with volume soaring to $9,709,400, short squeeze momentum sharply retreating from peak; 12-hour bears surged again to 4.14x with volume spiking to $92,207,900; 24-hour bears closed at 3.26x with $83,572,900 liquidations versus $25,646,100 longs, totaling $110 million liquidations. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 83.8% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration. Multiplier trajectory: 26.7x → 1.78x → 4.14x → 3.26x, an N-shaped oscillation followed by high-level stabilization but marginal weakening. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum has retreated from peak, avoid blind short chasing. 🔥 Market Indicator | September 4 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the "last piece of the puzzle" before September rate hikes, with AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives providing new market pricing anchors. 📊 Nonfarm Preview: Data is the "appetizer," CPI is the main course US August nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 PM Friday, market expects 58,000 new jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%. Previous value was -23,000, weak for three consecutive months. "Small nonfarm" ADP added only 38,000, below expectations, lowest in 7 months. Bank of America sees nonfarm as just the "appetizer," CPI is the key to September rate hikes. CME shows rate hike probability steady at about 62%. If nonfarm weakens, rate hike expectations will cool quickly; if strong, September hike is almost certain. 🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: The more explosive the earnings, the more selective the market Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591 billion, +86% YoY, AI semiconductors $16.7 billion, +221% YoY, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, after-hours down over 6%. Snowflake revenue $1.55 billion, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, after-hours surged over 23%. ⛓️ Robinhood Chain Volume Surge: ARB Soars on "Platform Tax" Narrative ARB rose nearly 30% in one day, Robinhood Chain's daily protocol fees hit a record $3.75 million, accumulating $13.05 million fees in two months. Fee income narrative is replacing narrative-driven growth, becoming the core logic for ARB's repricing. 💎 Summary Nonfarm is the last piece before September rate hikes, but CPI is the real decider; Broadcom's $29.5 billion revenue proves AI hardware is still booming, but the market cannot tolerate a 1% guidance miss; Snowflake's accelerating growth proves AI software is delivering returns; ARB's surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension in crypto asset pricing. ETH liquidation data resonates with BTC—$110 million total liquidations, bears account for 76%, 83.8% concentration, N-shaped oscillation from 26.7x → 1.78x → 4.14x, indicating large funds have completed directional heavy bets before nonfarm. The two giants simultaneously point to the bear side, the clearest market statement before nonfarm landing. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 PONS has entered the current hot search, rising about 47.41% in 24 hours. The trading volume in the same window is about 166 million USD, roughly one-third of the market cap of 501 million USD. This figure is striking, but it proves turnover intensity, not "an equivalent amount of new funds settled." Trading volume counts every transaction: the same batch of tokens can be repeatedly transferred in a short time, with market making quotes, short-term position closures, and rebalancing between different platforms all raising the total amount. Market cap is the valuation of all circulating tokens at a certain price, and the ratio between the two cannot be directly taken as net buying or the number of new holders. The closer state in this round is: PONS's attention and trading activity have significantly increased, but the public price and total trading volume still cannot distinguish real net absorption from high-frequency turnover. If continuous spot inflows across venues, changes in holding address structure, or verifiable primary catalysts can be seen, then this explanation can be upgraded. $UNI How far can CORE go after losing the trust of exchanges and the community? Current Reality 1. Trust damage at the exchange level Multiple high-risk protocol vulnerabilities have triggered risk control assessments by several leading exchanges, resulting in suspension of deposits and withdrawals, and delisting actions on some platforms. Centralized exchanges prioritize network stability and token supply security. Once labeled as "frequent mainnet vulnerabilities," it becomes extremely difficult to regain listing on all major exchanges. Without deep liquidity from top CEXs, the main trading venues for the token will shift to small and medium exchanges and DEXs, causing increased slippage and liquidity shrinkage, and institutional funds will generally avoid entering. ​ 2. Severe division and exhaustion of community sentiment Some early holders are deeply trapped and feel disappointed and suspicious due to repeated incidents and delayed information disclosure; a large portion of the old community has left, and new ordinary users are reluctant to join. Only the core believers remain steadfast, while ordinary market participants have voted with their feet. In crypto projects, no matter how grand the narrative, losing public trust makes it very difficult for the market to assign a high valuation. ​ 3. The network itself is still running, not directly halted The project team continues to perform hard forks for fixes and advance BTCFi-related development; the node network is still producing blocks and running, so delisting does not mean immediate zeroing out or disappearance. But a running chain does not mean the token price or ecosystem can return to their peak; network survival and market cap recovery are two completely different matters. Lies told three times, yet still falling for it! Patients are everywhere, but it’s hard to persuade those seeking death!!Last night, two sets of U.S. economic data were released, so let's briefly discuss the market changes. Initial jobless claims came in at 206,000, slightly higher than expected, indicating a small increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the past week. Employment is slightly weakening, which theoretically is a small positive for rate cuts. But the highlight was the ISM Services PMI, which exploded to 55.4, significantly exceeding market expectations. The service sector is the main part of the U.S. economy, and this data shows that offline consumption and business remain strong. What’s more concerning is the prices component soaring to 72.6, indicating a sudden surge in inflationary pressure. Once the data came out, the market immediately changed: U.S. Treasury yields surged, the dollar strengthened, and gold, U.S. tech stocks, and storage sectors (like SanDisk) all fell simultaneously. The market started to worry that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts. However, no conclusions can be drawn yet. The real test is tonight at 8:30 PM with the U.S. nonfarm payroll data. If tonight’s nonfarm payrolls disappoint significantly and employment data is poor, it could offset the negative impact from the ISM data. But there is a key variable here—wages. The best-case scenario: nonfarm payrolls are poor, and wages do not rise. The market would interpret this as the economy gradually cooling down, inflation becoming hard to sustain, and tech, storage, and gold would likely see a considerable rebound. The worst-case scenario: nonfarm employment declines, but wages continue to rise. This is contradictory—employment is weak but prices and wages remain firm. The rebound strength would be greatly reduced, with gains likely to spike and then fall back, causing volatility.Tonight at 8:30, the non-farm payrolls will be released. This time, I actually think the market should focus not on whether the "data is good or bad," but on whether employment has started to show a continuous weakening. The chart shows the market expects August non-farm payrolls to increase by 56,000, with the previous value still at -23,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, basically unchanged. If the non-farm payrolls are just slightly better than expected, I don't necessarily think it's bearish for BTC. Because the core of market trading has gradually shifted from "whether the economy is strong or not" to "whether employment can still hold up." Data too strong → rate cut expectations cool down, BTC under pressure. Data too weak → recession concerns rise, BTC may not immediately rise either. So tonight I’m more focused on one thing: How U.S. Treasury yields move after the non-farm payrolls are announced. If employment is weak but yields fall simultaneously, it might actually give risk assets some breathing room. Tonight, I won’t guess the numbers; I’ll wait for the market to give the answer itself. Will this non-farm payrolls report become the real turning point for the September market? #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH $USELESS Three days ago, I said those who sold below 77,000 would regret it two weeks later. I said the September rate hike would cause a double rise: if hiked, the bad news is fully priced in; if not, the good news is realized. $BTC directly surged to 82,000. I said I got half right, the other half hasn't happened yet. The ADP employment data came out, showing private sector employment significantly below expectations. The market immediately flipped — a week ago there was a 66% chance of a rate hike, today it’s down to a 40% chance of no hike. Just one data point turned the entire market’s expectations upside down. BTC jumped from 77,000 to 82,000, 5,000 points, in three days. Brothers, this is what I’ve been saying: the market trades on expectations, not facts. When expectations shift from "definitely hiking" to "possibly not hiking," the price jumps 5,000 points. So what if on September 16th they really don’t hike? You do the math on how much more it can rise. And what if they do hike? It still goes up. Why? Because 40% of people already think there won’t be a hike; if it happens, the bad news is fully priced in, those who wanted to sell have already sold, and with no one left to sell, the price can only rise. Both scenarios lead to a rise; this is the current pattern. Hold your base position tight, don’t make rash moves. Add more only if it breaks 82,500; if not, wait for a pullback. After September 16th, check where the price stands. Don’t ask me how I know. On the day of the rate hike, come back and like this. #BTC #RateHike #ADP #FOMC #TimeTravelerThe market changed overnight, with $BTC bouncing from 77,000 straight up to 81,000! $ETH reclaimed 2,500, and $SOL also rose above 105. But looking closely, this surge is not due to a fundamental reversal; it’s driven by sentiment recovery from news combined with short squeeze liquidations #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Federal Reserve Governor Waller dropped a dovish hint, which was the most direct trigger. He said if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged, pushing the probability of a September rate hike down from 66% to around 50%. The market immediately amplified this signal—initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, adding signs of labor market cooling, triggering a chain of short liquidations, and prices were pushed up accordingly #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 However, from the market details, the quality of this rebound is not very high. After $BTC touched 82,000, it quickly fell back and is now hovering around 81,000, a typical spike-and-fall pattern. Although $ETH returned to 2,510, institutional wallets transferred 167,800 ETH to CEX over the past three days, about $400 million, so selling pressure between 2,430-2,450 has not disappeared. $SOL surged the most, but high-beta assets tend to rise fast and fall fast #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $BTC saw the market collectively breathe a sigh of relief yesterday: US stocks and bonds both rose, gold briefly surged to 4470, and BTC also returned above 80,000. Essentially, what’s being traded isn’t positive news itself, but the fact that the September rate hike expectations have been pushed down again. After Waller’s speech, the market’s bet on a September 16 rate hike is back to a 50-50 split—if inflation continues to cool, there’s no rush to hike; if data heats up again, hikes will still be necessary. So the key now isn’t guessing, but waiting for the data. Tonight’s non-farm payrolls are the first test: if employment continues to cool, the market will keep betting against a hike; if non-farm exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will immediately rebound. Gold around 4473 is the most direct target for rate trading, SNDK returned to 1550, and risk assets are all benefiting from this expectation gap. I’m temporarily bullish on BTC returning above 80,000, but my biggest fear is that before the data is out, funds have already priced in the good news. ETH is more elastic but also more sensitive to liquidity. No rush to call a bull market yet. Tonight watch the non-farm employment, next Wednesday watch CPI. Also, SNDK below 1600 is just picking up money.September 4 Gold Morning Core Influencing Factors Analysis 1. Federal Reserve Policy Federal Reserve Governor Waller released more dovish remarks than expected, stating that if inflation continues to cool, the Fed tends to keep rates unchanged in September. The market's probability of a rate hike in September fell from 62% to around 48%. Coupled with ADP employment data significantly missing expectations, the US Dollar Index and 10-year Treasury yields both declined simultaneously. Gold prices rebounded strongly from the 4282 low point, showing an oversold recovery, surging nearly 2% overnight and reaching near the 4500 level. Key Reminder: A decline in the rate hike probability does not mean a complete shift to easing. Waller did not close the door on rate hikes, emphasizing that if inflation rebounds again, he still supports rate hikes; US service sector inflation data remains resilient, and the high interest rate environment has not completely disappeared. Tonight at 20:30, the Nonfarm Payroll report is the core event of the week. ADP is only a leading indicator. The strength or weakness of the Nonfarm employment data will directly rewrite rate hike expectations and determine the medium-term direction of gold. There is no major data in the early Asian session, with strong cautious sentiment among large funds, waiting for the Nonfarm data to land. Market volatility and shakeouts will increase. The current market condition remains characterized as: a technical recovery rebound after a big drop, not a trend reversal. Avoid blindly chasing longs. Technical Analysis Daily level: A large bullish candle formed at a low level, ending the continuous decline. Gold is trading in the 4470-4490 range. MACD green bars continue to shrink, bearish momentum weakens, RSI recovers upward from deep oversold. Strategy: Short at 4490-4510, stop loss at 4525, target 4450-4420 Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, trade cautiously #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $XAU $BTC shares with everyone a set of historical data on the BTC pizza cycle, which will provide a clearer understanding of the current position after reading. Reviewing the previous three complete cycles, the upward phases lasted 1142 days, 1068 days, and 1061 days respectively, followed by corresponding adjustment periods of 407 days, 363 days, and 376 days. It can be seen that the duration of each upward and adjustment phase follows a certain regularity. Looking at the current cycle: the upward phase has lasted 1050 days, and the adjustment has been ongoing for 268 days so far. Comparing with historical time ratios and pattern evolution, the subjective judgment is that the market is most likely still in a major adjustment phase that started from the high of 126,296 USD, and the adjustment period may not be over yet. Of course, it is important to emphasize that cycle statistics are only summaries based on historical data; past patterns do not guarantee future replication and are for reference only, not to be used as the sole basis for trading.Tonight's non-farm payrolls lean hawkish, bearish for Bitcoin #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Here's my judgment on Bitcoin for reference Straight to the conclusion: I think tonight's non-farm payrolls will most likely exceed expectations, bearish for Bitcoin. Three reasons: 1. The three major leading indicators—ADP, ISM, and initial jobless claims—all lean hawkish; employment is stronger than the market expected. 2. July's negative growth was an abnormally low base; an August rebound is highly probable, possibly reaching 80,000-100,000, exceeding the 58,000 expectation. 3. Last night Bitcoin surged from 76,963 to 81,000, up 4,000 points—a typical "buy the rumor" move; when the data comes out, it will likely be a "sell the fact" scenario. If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will surge above 70%, and Bitcoin may retrace to 79,200 or even 78,500, trapping those chasing highs. Trading advice: Reduce positions and take profits before 20:30 if you are already in; if not yet in, don't chase the highs. Lower leverage to below 5x; no one can withstand a sharp move from the non-farm payrolls. Of course, if non-farm payrolls fall below 30,000 again, that would be very bullish, but I think the probability is less than 20%.This round of UNI's rise is not an isolated event but the result of the resonance between on-chain real income and the token mechanism. It has increased by 38% over the past seven days, doubling from about $3 at the low point in August, breaking through $6.30 intraday on September 2, setting an eight-month record, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $1 billion and a market cap rising to $3.7 billion. The driving force first comes from the explosion of the Robinhood Chain, which reached a transaction volume of $17.99 billion in August; on September 1 alone, $1.95 billion was transacted, about $1.75 billion of which was completed through Uniswap pools, bringing continuous fee income to the protocol. The Fee Switch activated in V4 has shown significant effects, with the average daily protocol revenue rising from $118,000 to $318,000, while the ongoing burn mechanism brings the annualized burn rate close to 4% of the circulating supply, transforming the token from a pure governance tool into an asset with cash flow and deflationary properties. However, market sentiment shows clear divergence: the daily RSI is between 78 and 81, indicating severe overbought conditions; whale selling pressure is as high as 71%; funding rates have turned negative; the long-short ratio is 0.56; and the derivatives market is bearish. Short-term support lies between $5.84 and $5.78, with resistance near $6.37. If it fails to break out with volume, a technical correction is possible. Fundamentals are improving while short-term overheating coexists; strategically, it is advisable to wait for the price to digest the gains before making judgments. Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile; please manage your positions rationally. $UNISharing $BTC pizza cycle statistics. The first three uptrends lasted 1142, 1068, and 1061 days respectively, with corresponding corrections of 407, 363, and 376 days. The fourth uptrend lasted 1050 days, with the current correction at 268 days. Comparing historical time ratios and patterns, subjectively judging, the market is still in a major correction phase that started from 126296. The cycle is only a historical summary and does not represent a guaranteed future repeat. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 TRUMP token team address transferred TRUMP out 3 days ago, and now almost all TRUMP has been transferred into CEX: 10 million ($23.86 million) TRUMP, of which 8 million were transferred into Binance, and 2 million were transferred into OKX.Woke up this morning to check the market, and BTC quietly slipped back to 81,000. Last night, the US initial jobless claims data cooled off, and the market immediately cut the bet on a "September rate hike" from 63% to just over 50%. Waller added that "if inflation comes down, we will hold steady," which instantly eased the risk asset tension—BTC rose over 5% in 24h, ETH bounced back to 2500, XRP and SOL followed suit, with SOL recovering above 100. Shorts were liquidated by nearly 100 million USD within an hour. But honestly, this feels more like a "macro relief + crowded positions" correction rather than a new bull market signal. Looking at the capital flow, it's quite divided: BTC spot ETFs still had net inflows a few days ago (about 100 million USD in a single day), while ETH ETFs saw net outflows, breaking a streak of over ten days of inflows; the Fear & Greed Index is at 65 in the "greed" zone, but BTC dominance is nearly 60%, while the altcoin season index is just over 30—money recognizes Bitcoin as the anchor but is reluctant to accept altcoins as the story. Regulatory developments are even more interesting than the market: US SEC's Atkins wants to roll back exemptions for token fundraising (the startup 5 million and 75 million financing thresholds), the CLARITY Act is scheduled for Senate procedural voting on 9/15; Singapore MAS directly proposes stablecoins to have 100% reserves, segregated accounts, and no interest payments, aligning with Europe and the US; Wyoming issued an official stablecoin FRNT and even integrated Chainlink. Yesterday the market collectively breathed a sigh of relief: US stocks rose, US bonds rose, gold briefly surged near 4470, and BTC also reclaimed above 80000. To put it simply, what everyone is really trading on is not some mysterious positive news, but the fact that the September rate hike expectations have been pushed down again. After Waller spoke, the market's bet on a September 16 rate hike returned to about even odds. His message was simple: if inflation continues to fall, there's no need to rush to hike; but if the data heats up again, hikes will still be necessary. So the key now is not to guess, but to wait for the data. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first test. If employment cools further, the market will definitely continue to bet on "no rate hike"; but if the nonfarm suddenly comes out very strong, the recently eased rate hike expectations could very well be pulled back. Gold is now around 4473, which itself is the most direct safe-haven and interest rate trading target; on the US stock side, $SNDK has also returned near 1550, showing that risk assets are clearly reacting to this wave of expectation changes. Looking at crypto, Bitcoin has reclaimed above 80,000, and I am still temporarily bullish, but the biggest risk here is that the data hasn't come out yet and funds have already pre-spent the positive expectations. Ethereum is similar; it bounces more elastically than BTC but is also more dependent on liquidity. So I’m not in a hurry to call the bull market back. Tonight we first watch employment in the nonfarm data, then on September 11 we look at CPI. But SanDisk below 1600 is just free money #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC 24h +5.41%, at $81,231, back above 81K. $ETH up 5.25% to 2,508, $SOL up 3.99% to 103.87, showing a broad-based rally. But total market cap only rose 1.94%. By weighted inference, BTC alone should contribute 3.21 points, the four major coins combined 4.09 points, but only 1.94 was realized. The gap falls on the remaining 23.8% of market cap, shrinking overall by about 9%. Mainstream coins are absorbing liquidity, altcoins bleeding individually. Top gainers tell the same story: MARSCOIN +93.78%, turnover 63%, $CHIP +34.39%, turnover 96%, all narrow speculative plays with market caps just over 100 million. On the contract side, $LA funding rate is -0.76%, shorts are paying, indicating weakness confirmation rather than reversal at this level. BTC dominance is 59.37%. If it holds above 59% in the coming week, altcoin bleeding won’t stop; if it falls below 59% and total market cap growth surpasses BTC’s own gains, then money can be considered truly flowing into second-tier coins.$CORE deposit channel opens at 11 o'clock, will CORE see a violent rebound? Currently, the community generally bets that once the deposit channel opens at 11, CORE will directly rebound violently to break even. But we must face reality: the resumption of deposits only reopens the transfer channel and does not bring incremental buying pressure, so it cannot be considered a bullish catalyst. During the previous deposit maintenance, a large amount of tokens accumulated on-chain: positions trapped by vulnerabilities, tokens redeemed from staking, and over-rewarded tokens—all stuck on-chain and unable to be sold. Once the channel is opened, the floodgates will open. A large volume of tokens will flow into exchanges, and if holders collectively cash out, selling pressure will pour in instantly, causing the market to face downward pressure. Of course, a decline is not the only possibility. If the amount of tokens transferred on-chain to exchanges is small and most people choose to hold, after the shoe drops, sentiment recovery could trigger a pulse rebound. There is no predetermined script for the market. Whether it rebounds or crashes entirely depends on the actual scale of tokens transferred on-chain and the buying strength in the secondary market. Do not place all your hopes of breaking even on the deposit channel opening. Liquidity recovery does not equal a trend reversal; betting unilaterally on a rise or fall is a high-risk gamble. $CRCL USD stablecoins are rewriting cross-border payments, stop focusing only on bank wire transfers Cross-border payments are quietly changing: Are stablecoins truly an innovation or just a beautiful illusion? In the past, when we talked about "cross-border payments," what usually came to mind were banks, wire transfers, and bank cards. A sum of money moving from one country to another might have to pass through several institutions. There are many procedures, and the time is not necessarily fast. In recent years, a new concept has been increasingly discussed: stablecoins. What exactly makes them special? Why do some believe they could change global payments? First, let's understand: what is a stablecoin? Simply put, a stablecoin is a type of digital asset that attempts to keep its price relatively stable. The most common method is to peg it to a fiat currency. For example: 1 USDT is usually traded on the market close to the value of 1 US dollar. So unlike Bitcoin, whose price can fluctuate wildly every day, causing heart-stopping ups and downs. Many people’s eyes are immediately caught by a set of data when they first see stablecoins: traditional cross-border wire transfers take at least half a day, often three to five business days, and stop completely during weekends and holidays. Multiple intermediary banks charge fees at each step, and remittance fees of tens of dollars are common. Stablecoin transfers can be confirmed in minutes or even seconds, operate 24/7 all year round with no bank closing hours or holiday shutdowns, and on-chain fees are sometimes negligible. Looking only at speed and cost, this is almost a dimensionality reduction strike. Thus, a narrative began circulating in the market: the decades-old SWIFT system is about to be phased out, and stablecoins will take the baton to reshape the global cross-border payment landscape. But the truth is far more complex than imagined. Let's break down why traditional cross-border payments are slow. The slowness is not just due to technical transmission speed. What really blocks the flow of funds is a whole chain of identity verification, anti-money laundering, foreign exchange controls of various countries, and interbank reconciliation and settlement rules. Money is not just a string of data; every cross-border transaction involves the financial sovereignty and regulatory bottom lines of different countries. Stablecoins skip many intermediary banks, but only the technical channels—they do not bypass the legal regulations of each country. This is the cognitive pitfall most people fall into: thinking that as long as on-chain transfer speed is fast enough, global trade and personal remittances can be truly unlocked. But on-chain completion is only the first step. Ultimately, the money still needs to land, be exchanged into local fiat currency, and enter real-world circulation. The exchange step still faces banks, regulators, foreign exchange policies, and KYC identity checks. A straightforward example: you use stablecoins to transfer from domestic to overseas accounts, and it arrives on-chain in minutes. But if you want to convert stablecoins into local currency and withdraw to a bank card, whether you can exchange, the amount limit, and compliance all depend on local policies. The most troublesome and risky part of the chain is precisely the "last mile" where on-chain assets return to real fiat currency. Let's look deeper into the underlying nature of stablecoins. The largest stablecoins on the market today, USDT and USDC, are essentially pegged to the US dollar, with reserve assets mostly in US Treasury bonds. This means stablecoins are not just neutral payment tools. They are a new channel for extending US dollar credit outward. As more countries, merchants, and ordinary people get used to using dollar stablecoins for cross-border settlement, it invisibly accelerates the "on-chain dollarization" of some markets. This is no longer just a technical issue but a global battle for monetary discourse power. Therefore, the global attitude toward stablecoins is clearly divided into several paths. The US is busy advancing stablecoin legislation to compete for rule-making power; Hong Kong has introduced stablecoin regulations and opened licensed issuance channels; more countries remain cautious, studying the technology while firmly guarding regulatory red lines to prevent capital flight, money laundering, and disruption of foreign exchange order. Do not jump to simple conclusions: stablecoins will either overturn traditional finance or are purely a bubble. A more objective trend is: stablecoins will not directly eliminate banks and SWIFT, but they will become a brand-new tool in the global cross-border payment toolbox. In emerging markets where traditional bank branches are weak and cross-border channels are poor, stablecoins can fill some gaps; in cross-border e-commerce, small trade, and high-frequency fund turnover scenarios, compliant stablecoins can greatly improve fund turnover efficiency. The more likely future scenario is not a life-or-death battle between old and new systems, but coexistence and integration. Traditional financial institutions and payment giants are actively researching and launching their own compliant stablecoins, blockchain networks serve as underlying channels, regulators build fences, and multiple parties complement each other to jointly build a new generation of cross-border settlement networks. Technology can always iterate quickly, but the fundamental logic of finance has remained unchanged for millennia: speed is only superficial; credit, regulation, sovereignty, and liquidity are the core foundations determining whether a payment method can last. Stablecoins have opened a new door, but there is still a long way to go before truly reconstructing global payments.Will a major crash in $BTC happen? This question is more worth considering than guessing a rebound. Currently, $77,000 is holding sideways, and failing to break above $80,000 already shows the bulls lack confidence. The real pressure comes from the macro side: the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.81%, nearing a three-year high, with over a 60% chance of a rate hike in September. Oil prices are even more aggressive; the US-Iran conflict is pushing Brent crude up to $94, inflation expectations can't be suppressed, so don't even think about rate cuts. But calling for a crash outright is a bit premature. There are no extreme leverage liquidation signals on-chain yet; it looks more like the market is waiting for a trigger. The real risk lies in a sudden liquidity tightening, not a single candlestick. If $80,000 can't hold and $77,000 breaks again, risks will accelerate. If even $75,000 can't hold, then discussing a major crash might no longer be just scaring ourselves. $BTC #ETF just finished buying, giant whale dumps $300 million, BTC longs and shorts both hit These days $BTC is moving like it's constipated, neither going up nor down. Looking on-chain makes it clear—an ancient giant whale address just broke down 12,470 BTC, worth about $320 million, gradually pouring them into Binance and OKX. In the past 72 hours, 5,800 BTC have already been deposited, with 6,670 BTC left in the wallet waiting to be sold. The main force just took a breather, and the whale strikes again—who can withstand this? What's worse is the timing is so annoying. Last week, the spot ETF just had a net inflow of $470 million, and the market was still hoping institutions would support the bottom, but then the whale smashed it right back. On-chain tracking shows this batch of BTC was aggregated from multiple OTC channels in 2019. The $300 million selling pressure is overwhelming, and the buying side is like trying to block a flood with a spoon. The fact it can hold around 58,000 is pure luck. Macro factors add fuel to the fire. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model raised the Q3 forecast to 5.6%, the economy is ridiculously strong, and the Fed has no reason to ease. The CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in November has risen to 62%, nearly 20 points higher than last week. $BTC longs are now in a worse position than ETH. ETH at least has staking rates to support it, BTC is purely holding on by sentiment. The whale still hasn't sold the remaining 6,670 BTC, and the September nonfarm payroll data is looming—if employment exceeds expectations again, rate hike expectations will trigger a second wave of selling.日韩股市开盘走高：软银大涨5.8%，SK海力士、三星电子涨超2% 9月4日日韩股市开盘上涨，日经225指数开盘涨0.27%，软银大涨5.8%，铠侠涨0.70%；韩国KOSPI指数开盘涨1.2%，SK海力士、三星电子均涨超2%，AI与半导体存储板块成为领涨主力。 9月4日开盘，日韩股市同步走高。日经225指数开盘上涨0.27%，其中软银集团大涨5.8%，铠侠上涨0.70%；韩国KOSPI指数开盘上涨1.2%，SK海力士与三星电子均涨超2%。 从领涨结构看，本轮上涨明显由AI与半导体存储板块主导。软银集团是全球最激进的AI投资方之一，重仓OpenAI等核心AI资产，并深度参与超大规模算力投资计划，其股价弹性常被视为市场对AI叙事情绪的晴雨表，5.8%的单日开盘涨幅在大型权重股中极为罕见。SK海力士与三星电子则是HBM（高带宽存储）双寡头，是英伟达AI加速器的主要存储供应商；铠侠为NAND闪存主要厂商。存储板块集体走强，通常反映市场对AI算力带动存储需求、以及存储价格周期上行的预期升温。 值得注意的是，韩国KOSPI开盘涨幅达1.2%，明显高于日经225的0.27%，显示本轮行情的核心驱动集$BTC technicals are brewing a signal for a trend change. The 50-day moving average is approaching a crossover above the 200-day moving average; if the golden cross pattern materializes, the medium-term trend tends to warm up. USDT market dominance is weakening simultaneously, with some funds flowing back from stablecoins into crypto assets, causing technicals and capital flows to start resonating bullishly. On the macro front, Arthur Hayes mentioned that Japan's GPIF adjusting its allocation could release a new round of liquidity, but this remains at the expectation stage for now. The real direction is still determined by interest rates and the actual cost of the dollar; liquidity easing has not yet been substantively transmitted. Institutional channels are also expanding. Standard Chartered Bank has extended BTC/ETH spot trading from the UK to the UAE, making compliant buying channels increasingly smoother. Willy Woo proposed a new view: BTC's cycle might extend from 4 years to 6-8 years. After ETFs and institutional entry, the market rhythm no longer solely depends on the halving; volatility is slower but more sustained. However, the golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market dominance could also be a short-term behavior. BTC will not immediately break out because of these signals. Only if spot buying continues to follow through and the price stabilizes again in the 80,000-83,300 range will the new trend be truly confirmed. Medium- to long-term improvements are accumulating, but a breakthrough still needs one more push, waiting for real money confirmation. $BTC #美国初请失业金人数升至20 6,000: Is BTC about to take off? The real test is tonight. To conclude: this data is positive for BTC in the short term, but it's far from the level of "stable market conditions." The latest initial jobless claims in the US rose to 206,000, higher than the market expectation of 205,000, with the previous value revised to 204,000. This indicates a slight cooling in the job market, but the number of applicants remains low, and there are no obvious signs of a recession in the US economy for now. Why must the crypto world pay attention? First, cooling employment may lower expectations for further Fed rate hikes. If US Treasury yields and the dollar weaken accordingly, liquid assets like BTC and ETH usually find it easier to receive funding. Second, this time there are only 1,000 more than expected, which is very limited. It can only be considered a "minor positive factor," insufficient to push BTC through key resistance levels on its own. Third, the real direction will be determined by the US nonfarm payroll report to be released tonight at 20:30: If employment is significantly below expectations, rate hike expectations may continue to decline, BTC may test upwards, and highly volatile assets like ETH and SOL may be more elastic. If the data is much stronger than expected, US Treasury yields may rise again, and the crypto market should be wary of price spikes and pullbacks. If employment deteriorates too quickly, the market could shift from "liquidity positive" to "recession fear." Therefore, 206,000 is not a trigger, but more like a fuse. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data may determine the true direction of BTC's next rally. You believe tonight will be "driven by weak employment."4. The real "big money" has long entered the market Behind the surge is the continuous inflow of institutional funds. In August, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $3.5 billion, marking the largest single-month inflow in over a year. Bitcoin rose about 25% in August, achieving the strongest August performance in 17 years. This is not retail FOMO; this is Wall Street allocation. Galaxy Digital's head of research pointed out that the $3.54 billion net inflow in August signifies that institutional participation has reactivated after a prolonged downturn. More importantly: In August, the US Treasury announced that the single transaction limit for long-term Treasury liquidity repos was raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, doubling the amount. The market interprets this as a disguised easing. A weaker dollar, falling long-term yields, and improved liquidity—Bitcoin is the sharpest spear in this round of macro trading. $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Damn, as soon as Waller spoke last night, the shorts exploded directly. BTC shot back from around 77,000 to 81,000; over 415 million in short positions were liquidated across the market in 24 hours. The pricing for the September rate hike dropped from over 60% to around 50%. Risk appetite flipped overnight. The market is already anticipating a trading halt. But the real show is at 20:30 tonight. The August nonfarm payroll is the last complete employment report before the FOMC. Consensus expects an increase of about 56,000 to 58,000 jobs, with unemployment watched at 4.1%. Previously, ADP was only 38,000; July was still -23,000; and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. Many people will treat a weak nonfarm report as a pause lock, but that's off. Waller’s stance still prioritizes inflation. He just adjusted the pricing back a bit. The committee is never unified. Bank of America put it bluntly: the nonfarm is just an appetizer; the main course is the CPI on September 11. The rate decision focuses on September 15-16. Tonight, it’s not just about the headcount. Read hourly wages and previous value revisions together. Soft headcount but strong wages still provide hawkish ammunition. Low hiring and low firing don’t mean recession. The real turnaround requires employment, wages, and inflation all moving in the same direction. Don’t mistake the appetizer for the main course. Look at the menu clearly before you dig in. #FOMC last $BTC $ETH data set before Friday’s nonfarm🔥$ETH was scolded by macro bosses last night, but this morning it bounced back to 2490 thanks to initial jobless claims and Powell's sweet talk This morning ETH is around $2490–2511. Last night it once jumped together with BTC: initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, Powell hinted "inflation cooling in August means no rate hike in September," and the market cut the probability of a September rate hike from 63.2% to 50.4%. BTC retreated to 80,800, ETH rose about 4.8%–5.3% to 2494–2511. The trend is like being called in by HR on Monday and getting milk tea from administration on Tuesday; the person hasn't fully recovered yet. Funny thing about funds: ETFs are not moving in unison but rather "internal reshuffling." On September 2, spot ETH ETFs had a net outflow of about 48.08 million, with ETHA outflowing 53.35 million and ETHB inflowing 52.92 million; on September 4, East Coast data showed another net outflow of about 167 million, with FETH outflowing 217 million and ETHA actually inflowing 149 million. Total AUM is about 2.778 billion, with cumulative net inflow around 13.17 billion. BlackRock's staking version and old spot products are each buying their own, Fidelity is retreating first, institutions are not "mindless dollar-cost averaging" but "changing seats according to duration." Technically, don't overdraw the chart: last night’s analysis gave hourly support at 2459 with targets at 2536, 2606, 2679; breaking 2459 would target 2406, 2355, 2306. The current price is stuck between 2450–2510, like an employee toggling between "returning to work" and "continuing to take leave." Macro follow-ups to watch are the September 11 CPI and the September 15–16 FOMC. $ETH Yesterday the market collectively breathed a sigh of relief: US stocks rose, US bonds rose, gold briefly surged to around 4470, and BTC also reclaimed the 80,000 level. To put it simply, what everyone is really trading on is not some mysterious positive news, but the fact that the September rate hike expectations have been pushed down again. After Waller spoke, the market's bet on a rate hike on September 16th returned to about even odds. His point was simple: if inflation continues to decline, there's no need to rush a hike; but if the data heats up again, then a hike will still be necessary. So the key now is not to guess, but to wait for the data. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first test. If employment cools down further, the market will definitely continue to bet on "no rate hike"; but if the nonfarm suddenly comes out very strong, the recently eased rate hike expectations could very well be pulled back. Gold is now around 4473, which itself is the most direct safe-haven and interest rate trading target; on the US stock side, $SNDK has also returned to around 1550, clearly risk assets are reacting to this wave of expectation changes. Looking at the crypto space, Bitcoin has reclaimed 80,000, and I am still somewhat bullish for now, but the biggest fear here is that before the data comes out, funds have already pre-spent the positive expectations. Ethereum is similar; it has more bounce than BTC but is also more dependent on liquidity. So I’m not in a hurry to call the bull market back yet. Tonight we first watch employment in the nonfarm data, and next week on September 11th we will look at CPI. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH 今晚这份美国8月非农对比特币很关键。数据将于美国东部时间 9月4日 8:30公布，也就是北京时间/韩国时间 20:30。目前市场预期新增就业大约 5.5–5.8万人，失业率约 4.1%；7月非农曾意外减少2.3万人。 对 BTC 最重要的是：非农 → 美联储预期 → 美元/美债收益率 → BTC 我更关注下面三个情景： 非农结果 对降息/加息预期 BTC短线 < 3万 明显偏鸽 🟢 大涨概率高 3–7万 基本符合/偏弱 🟢 偏多，但容易先冲高回落 7–10万 偏鹰 🔴 BTC承压 >10万 加息预期明显升温 🔴🔴 下跌风险大 目前市场对9月美联储政策已经非常敏感，近期甚至出现9月加息概率在50%左右波动的情况，因此这次非农的市场反应可能会明显放大。 但有一个很重要的“反直觉” 非农越差，不一定意味着BTC一定暴涨。 如果数据差得非常厉害，例如出现大幅负增长，同时失业率明显上升，市场可能从： “Fed可能不加息” 变成 “美国经济是不是要衰退？” 这时候BTC可能出现先涨 → 美股跳水 → BTC跟着跳水。 所以我认为今晚最理想的BTC数据是： 非农略低于预$BTC The signal released by Fed's Waller is the main catalyst Waller stated that as long as inflation continues to cool, he tends to keep rates unchanged in September, no rate hike. The market immediately lowers the probability of a rate hike in September, US Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens, and risk assets collectively rebound. Key point: This round of rise is macro-driven, not a BTC-specific positive, highly tied to Fed policy expectations, so tonight's non-farm payrolls will be very critical. Tonight's non-farm payrolls: will not directly tell you whether it will rise or fall, there are three scenarios. Non-farm looks at new jobs, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, wages, which now have a high weight related to inflation. Non-farm data → changes market expectations on whether the Fed will hike rates in September → dollar, US Treasury yields → BTC price movement! 🚨 81,000 has once again been trampled under BTC's feet! This rise is not just about sentiment. Overnight, this surge suddenly accelerated, with $BTC reclaiming 81K and a clear increase in trading volume in a short time. What’s truly noteworthy is that several variables are changing simultaneously behind the scenes: 🔥 Fed expectations are easing Waller signaled that rates will likely remain unchanged this month, significantly cooling market worries about further tightening. 💰 ETF funds are still supporting Spot ETF net inflows are about $115 million. Although GBTC still saw outflows of about $56.2 million, overall funding hasn’t collapsed. 🏛️ Regulatory expectations continue to heat up Progress on the "Clarity Act" is attracting attention, and the SEC has also signaled advancing the U.S. crypto regulatory framework. 📉 Employment data is weak ADP underperformed expectations, the labor market is cooling, which actually gives the market more room to imagine policy shifts. So this time BTC’s return to 81K is interesting not because of that bullish candle, but because: Capital + macro + regulation, three directions are resonating. But don’t get too excited just yet. Whether it can hold above 81K after breaking through is the key next step #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue On-chain whale addresses have net transferred about 1,300 bitcoins to derivatives platforms in the past two hours, but no synchronized accumulation has appeared on the spot side. The proportion of active selling volume in perpetual contracts has risen to 52%, and the funding rate briefly turned positive before leveling off, indicating this rebound is more likely driven by short covering rather than new buying entering the market. Just got numb hands from a催单 call, glanced at the order-by-order entries, and the resistance orders above are clearly stronger. In the naked K structure, the current price around 81199 is right at the lower edge of the chip peak of the previous hourly downtrend consolidation platform. Three consecutive bullish candles have narrowing bodies and elongated upper shadows, indicating a volume-less rebound. If it rallies further, it will likely face selling pressure from whale transfers between 81700 and 82300. Therefore, do not chase longs at the current price; wait to test shorts in the 81700 to 82300 range, set stop loss at 82900, first take profit at 79300, second take profit at 77600. Defense is a must, do not hold positions stubbornly. $BTC #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 @OKX星球 The sharp surge on September 3rd with BTC hitting 80,500 and ETH touching 2,494 is not a new bull run, but an overnight reaction of “dovish expectation repair + short squeeze”: ① Macro view ignites: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations + Waller hinted “August inflation cooling means no rate hike in September,” CME’s September rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.818%, and risk assets collectively loosened. ② Shorts squeezed: When BTC surged to 80,400, 24h short liquidations dominated (short covering aggressively bought into the bullish candle), but the price retreated to 77,500 by day’s end, a double kill for longs and shorts, with liquidations around $150–250 million. ③ ETF takes over but doesn’t ignite: BTC ETF net inflow was $3.5 billion in August, and on September 2nd a single-day positive inflow of $101 million (mainly IBIT), acting as support rather than a charge; Coinbase premium 7-day average remains negative, US spot real buying hasn’t returned. ④ Resistance unbroken: There is a supply wall of 1.05 million long-term holders between 83,000–86,000, three attempts to break 80,000 were all pushed back to 77,500, RSI daily chart is overbought above 70. In essence = a short-covering rebound triggered by marginal easing of rate hike panic, with ETF providing support but US buying remains weak #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue The most notable thing about CASHCAT on OKX Perpetual isn't how well the name rides emotions, but that the exchange directly connected a meme line from Robinhood Chain into the high-leverage trading zone. OKX's announcement was very straightforward: CASHCAT/USDT Perpetual will open on September 3, 2026, 03:30 UTC, covering web, app, and API, settlement currency USDT, funding fees follow the perpetual contract mechanism, and trading hours are 24/7. In other words, it's not just a regular spot listing, but a faster and more aggressive tool for short-term funds. This difference needs to be clarified first. Spot buys the coin, at most it's price volatility; Perpetual buys direction, plus margin, funding rate, and liquidation mechanism. For memes, this structure amplifies sentiment. When the market is going well, transactions and social media hype tend to push each other out; But once funding rates are squeezed and the order window thins, drawdowns can be even harder than spot trading. The CASHCAT narrative itself is not complicated. The public page shows it revolves around Robinhood's early historical name "Cash Cat" and on-chain community memes, with the market categorizing it under Robinhood Chain-related memes. CoinGecko's current page also shows that CASHCAT already has a high 24-hour trading volume and a market cap of several hundred million dollars. Here"Even the big exchanges can't afford it, Ethereum L2 shuts down" South Korea's compliant big exchange has finally pulled the plug on the Layer 2 network. For the past two years, everyone has been wildly hyping one-click chain launches, thinking that just creating an official wallet to divert traffic would let them earn toll fees passively. But after more than half a year online, the on-chain funds haven't even reached $10 million. Sequencer nodes run around the clock every day, cloud server bills are paid out of pocket monthly, and Ethereum upgrades have completely eliminated the toll fee arbitrage, so the collected fees aren't even enough to buy a few cups of coffee. Korbit and the operators simply locked cross-chain deposits, setting a hard deadline to completely shut down by the end of the year, with funds returned via the original route. Rather than losing money daily on electricity bills running a ghost town, it's better to close early and cut losses. $ETH The $CORE project team said this hard fork would burn 150 million, and the community praised it, quickly forgetting the nearly 300 million oversupply. They also didn't mention the malicious nodes at all, never said anything about contacting the malicious nodes to return tokens, sold so many coins on OK, and didn't say anything about tracking and punishing those who acted maliciously. The chance of this being a self-directed drama is very high. This morning, the updated hash rate dropped again, down to only 57% 😂😂😂$CORE is really interesting. The core project team is completely dodging the main issues. First, the team said they burned 150 million tokens, but I just checked the contract, and the burn contract still shows the original 8 million plus. I don't know where they burned the tokens. Secondly, the current circulating supply is still over 1.4 billion, whereas before the incident it was over 1.1 billion. So the team's claim that the nodes issued an extra 150 million rewards is also incorrect. Finally, the team said that executed transactions will not be rolled back, which means the actual extra 300 million tokens in circulation will continue to circulate. Even if 150 million were burned, the incident directly caused the current circulation to increase by 150 million. The 150 million should have been unlocked over 5 years, but now it was dumped on the market, effectively devaluing everyone's tokens by 15% or more. Are the two nodes really the only ones who received the 150 million tokens? From my on-chain observations, after the two nodes received the tokens, they systematically moved them through multiple new wallets, washing them repeatedly, and programmatically flowing them into exchanges. Such organized and planned liquidation—who would believe it’s not premeditated? In short, whoever has the ability to pull this off is obviously the biggest beneficiary. The project team should answer directly. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue The real reasons behind this BTC/ETH rally 1. Tonight, Federal Reserve officials' speeches leaned dovish, and the market preemptively priced in rate cut expectations. US Treasury yields declined, leading risk assets to surge first. The market is front-running rate cut expectations on the eve of the nonfarm payrolls. 2. $BTC, as the large-cap leader, led the way, with $ETH following with beta elasticity; ZEC is a small-cap coin, where short-term leveraged funds concentratedly rushed in, amplifying its elasticity, so its gains far exceeded the big coins. 3. The 15-minute candlestick shows consecutive large bullish candles, MACD surged rapidly, and the short-term is already in an overbought state. Key risks This is a preview rally based on expectations, not the actual nonfarm payroll results. Tomorrow is the real test: • If tomorrow's nonfarm data meets weak expectations, this rally has a chance to continue; • If tomorrow's nonfarm data is stronger than expected, the bulls who front-ran tonight will collectively take profits and sell off, causing a significant pullback, with small-cap ZEC experiencing an even harsher correction #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Robinhood Chain volume keeps climbing. Dune shows $1.89B in 24h DEX volume, and DeFiLlama puts 24h chain revenue near $3.38M, above most major chains. Built on Arbitrum's stack, it has generated licensing income for Arbitrum DAO, supporting ARB's revenue narrative. Memes like CashCat and Pons drive most of the heat, so the question is whether this becomes real trading and RWA demand or just hype and subsidies. OKX's built-in DEX now supports Robinhood Chain tokens with 0 gas fee perks.$ETH $ZEC lost big, woke up to all green, is the bull market here? It surged so much at once, wiping out the small dips of the past few days, all hitting new highs. I really am a bad omen, every time I short it goes up 😭 Forget the crypto circle, let's talk about the macro circle. Hawks and doves take turns. Last night crypto surged, the core catalyst was the sharp drop in Fed rate hike expectations: US initial jobless claims rose more than expected, showing weakness in the labor market; Fed Governor Waller immediately sent a dovish signal, saying if inflation cools in August, he would support keeping rates unchanged. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63.2% to 50.4%, easing liquidity tightening concerns and directly boosting risk assets. Meanwhile, the US-Iran military conflict escalated fully (US strikes on Iranian targets met with retaliation), oil prices broke $91, gold neared historic highs, and Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute as "digital gold" received extra support. Additionally, institutional funds continue to pour in—Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $3.5 billion in August, and BitMine significantly increased its Ethereum holdings, becoming the largest corporate holder. The dovish shift in monetary policy, geopolitical risk aversion, and institutional accumulation combined to ignite this rally. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Tonight's nonfarm payrolls—don't just focus on the first line of numbers. At 8:30, August nonfarm payrolls will be released. Everyone is watching the new jobs added, but what really matters this time is how the previous figures are revised. In the last report, July employment was cut by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. That means the jobs previously thought to have been added actually weren't that many. If this time the new jobs barely turn positive, it looks strong at first glance, but if the previous two months are revised down significantly again, the overall trend might not actually be good. Just looking at the first line of the quick report, you can't really tell what the market is trading on. For BTC, this isn't necessarily a direct positive. Cooling employment could indeed lower rate hike expectations, but if the market starts worrying about the economy itself, funds might sell crypto first to hedge risk—gold ETFs are running ahead, while BTC is still fluctuating, indicating smart money is also watching. The key points to watch are: can the improvement in new jobs withstand revisions? Is wage growth cooling down as well? Relying on just one nonfarm number to decide whether to hike rates in September is too hasty. Also, a reminder: this is the last nonfarm report before the rate decision, but not the last key data—there's still CPI on September 11. Even if you get the direction right tomorrow night, don't rush to close your eyes and hold your position. $BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Polymarket拟融资10亿美元，估值210亿美元 After a 5% short squeeze, I checked the derivatives structure and have two numbers for those still wanting to go long: first, funding rates across exchanges have all turned positive but remain mild, not reaching the extreme levels of frantic long-side payments; second, a large batch of new open interest contracts for $BTC flooded in within 4 hours. Reading these two together: new money is chasing the highs, but sentiment hasn't reached the greed peak yet—sounds like it could still go up, right? But don't forget the other half: the 1-hour RSI has already burned up close to the overbought zone near 80. The conclusion is: the mid-term hasn't hit the turning point yet, but jumping in right now means you're catching the hottest short-term wave. Funding rates and open interest are all out in the open, so don't just focus on the color of the candlesticks. Are you chasing now, or waiting? $OFC OFC (OneFootball Credits) is not a scam coin; it is backed by a real football app and institutional funding. However, its actual performance was a spike to $0.078 at the April TGE, then a drop to around $0.009 by September, a nearly 90% retracement. The brand is real, and the economic model is a typical "low circulation + linear unlocking + World Cup narrative" scheme — early buyers bear the selling pressure, and the utility loop hasn't been completed yet. You can use it as fan points for fun, but holding it heavily as an investment is basically paying a faith tax 📌 Why did $BTC/$ETH suddenly surge this round? First, let's look at the logic: Tonight, Federal Reserve officials' speeches leaned dovish, the market preemptively priced in a rate cut, US Treasury yields declined, and risk assets surged ahead. On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, funds were clearly rushing to get ahead. On the market front: $BTC led the rally, $ETH followed with beta; $ZEC is a small cap, short-term leverage rushed in, elasticity was fully stretched, so its gains far exceeded the big coins. Technically: 15-minute consecutive large bullish candles, MACD rapidly rising, short-term already overbought. ❗️But note: this move is expectation-driven trading, not the actual non-farm data. Tomorrow is the real turning point: • Non-farm weaker than/meeting expectations → the market has room to continue • Non-farm stronger than expectations → tonight's front-running bulls will take profits and sell off, the pullback will be sharp, $ZEC will retrace even harder Don't let a single bullish candle change your conviction; wait for the data to speak. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 *English* People always ask: why do altcoins go into full frenzy mode before BTC really runs? Why is everyone rushing to buy them? Let’s check the data first: As of *Sept 4*, total crypto market cap is around *$2.83T*. *BTC dominance ∼56.7%*. The Altcoin Season Index is only *39/100*. Translation: we’re not in a full “alt season” yet, but the money rotation has already started. *Why alts?* It’s simple. Compared to BTC, alts have smaller caps and much bigger swings. When liquidity rotates outThe tech world is buzzing today: Nvidia acquires Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, OpenAI drops GPT-6, Broadcom's AI semiconductor guidance is up 236% year-over-year — the US stock AI narrative has leveled up again, and crypto stocks are collectively erupting, with MSTR, COIN, CRCL jumping double digits in a day. Many get hyped seeing $BTC rise together, thinking the bull market is back. Let me pour cold water: this crypto surge isn’t driven by its own story; it’s riding the beta tail of the US stock AI frenzy. When risk appetite is on, the tail swings wildly; the day AI sentiment softens, that tail will swing worse than anyone else’s. Don’t mistake borrowed hype for your own moat. How much of this crypto rally do you think is truly its own narrative?
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