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DON’T PANIC. WATCH THE MONEY. $BTC is at $80,975, after touching $82,285. The bigger signal isn’t just price: U.S. Spot $BTC ETFs recorded +$301.66M in daily net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching $55.01B. $ETH trades around $2,506.79, while Spot $ETH ETFs show +$68.02M daily net inflows and $13.09B cumulative. Prices may shake, but capital hasn’t left. Don’t stare at one red candle. Watch where the money is flowing. $BTC $ETH #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #DailyOrbit On September 1, ARB tokens surged nearly 30% in a single day, reaching a recent high, with open interest growing by more than 10%. The fundamental driving force behind this rally comes from the explosive growth in on-chain revenue from its ecosystem application Robinhood Chain (a dedicated chain based on the Arbitrum Dedicated Chain architecture). • Soaring data: Robinhood Chain's daily trading revenue jumped from about $54,000 on August 22 to $1.088 million on August 30, a nearly 20-fold increase in eight days; By September 1, its daily revenue had surpassed $2 million. Meanwhile, the chain's DEX daily trading volume reached $989 million, with TVL surpassing $700 million. • Asset value capture allocation: • ARB (Platform Tax): Since Robinhood Chain uses the Arbitrum technology stack, about 10% of protocol net revenue must be handed over to the Arbitrum DAO, providing ARB with clear and structured protocol cash flow. Based on an annualized daily revenue of $2 million, Arbitrum can earn about $73 million in annualized income. • UNI (Transaction Tax): Uniswap controls about 99% of tokenized stock liquidity on the chain, with 0.25% of transaction fees paid through buybacks and burnsSeptember 4th BTC Morning Public Strategy BTC current price is 80811, showing a strong rally on the 15-minute chart, reaching a high of 82282 before facing resistance and pulling back. Currently, it is in a correction and consolidation phase after the rally, with short-term bullish momentum weakening and intensified high-level bull-bear competition. Resistance levels: 81500‑82282 Short-term upper resistance range, 82282 is the intraday high of this round, with heavy selling pressure upon rebound to this range; strong resistance at 82282. Support levels: 79800‑80000 Key short-term support zone for this rally, serving as the bulls' defense position; if this range is effectively broken, the short-term upward structure will weaken. Trading idea: On a pullback to 80200-79600 with stabilization and a bullish close, consider trading short-term rebound long positions, targeting 81500-82200 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC $ETH This rollercoaster ride with Bitcoin has me dizzy😵 Yesterday I was still worried about Iran, stuck repeatedly in the 70,000s, but this morning a big bullish candle pulled it straight back to 81,000, up over 4% in 24 hours, with 96,000 people liquidated on the spot. Honestly, this reversal came faster than a change of face; while the US-Iran conflict continues with gunfire, BTC decided to rally first as a salute. Last night, the US stock market joined the party, crypto concept stocks all surged, Strategy soared 17%, Coinbase rose over 10%, and Bitcoin firmly reclaimed above 80,000. Unemployment data exceeded expectations, September rate hike expectations cooled again, and institutions are pouring real money in. At this 80,000 level, the shorts just took a hard hit; next, it’s about whether it can hold steady. In this market, brothers holding spot positions must treat themselves to some extra chicken legs tonight🍗. #BTC #比特币 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #OKX预言家：欧洲豪门交锋，F1意大利站预测进行中 In the blink of an eye, it's already September! Veteran crypto enthusiasts know what this month means for BTC—the "September Curse." Historical data shows that in the past 13 Septembers, Bitcoin closed lower 8 times, with an average return of -2.97%, making it the worst month of the year. After BTC surged 25% in August, marking the third-best performance in history, it has already fallen back to around $77,000 on September 1st. Mid-September brings three major events: On September 15, the Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, with the probability of passage plummeting from 82% to 13%-14%; on September 15-16, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the market's rate hike probability soaring to 68%; plus geopolitical conflicts pushing oil prices above $90. Polymarket data shows a 70% chance BTC will hit $80,000 in September, and nearly 80% chance it will drop below $75,000, indicating extremely fierce long-short battles. I think September is indeed tough, but sharp drops often present opportunities. When others panic, it might be a good time to build positions gradually! What do you all think? #比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 $BTC 特斯拉Cybercab正式投入运营，港股智能驾驶概念集体走强 特斯拉当地时间9月3日宣布，赛博无人驾驶电动车Cybercab正式在美国奥斯汀投入运营，该车型取消方向盘、踏板和后视镜。受此催化，9月4日港股智能驾驶概念集体走强，佑驾创新涨超10%，禾赛-W涨超8%，小马智行-W涨超7%，百度涨超5%，速腾聚创涨超4%。 特斯拉于当地时间9月3日宣布，旗下赛博无人驾驶电动车Cybercab正式在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀投入运营。这款车型完全取消了方向盘、踏板和后视镜，专为全无人驾驶出行服务打造，特斯拉表示其将以更高的使用效率承担更多出行需求。Cybercab是特斯拉Robotaxi战略的核心载体，此次宣布正式投入运营，意味着特斯拉的无人驾驶出行服务从测试阶段迈向商业化运营阶段。与Waymo采用激光雷达加高精地图的技术路线不同，特斯拉坚持纯视觉加端到端神经网络的方案，Cybercab的落地被视为对该技术路线商业可行性的重要验证。受此消息催化，9月4日港股智能驾驶概念股集体走强，佑驾创新涨超10%，禾赛-W涨超8%，小马智行-W涨超7%，百度涨超5%，速腾聚创涨超4%。这一轮上涨的传导逻辑较为清晰In real life, a transfer takes two seconds, but on-chain transfers feel like "defusing a bomb"? 😅 Sometimes it’s really frustrating. If you want to do something on-chain, you first have to go through: 1. Frantically searching for the official cross-chain bridge; 2. Nervously watching if the authorized contract will empty your wallet; 3. Staring helplessly at the stuck Gas fees in the block, unable to move. No wonder Web3 has been shouting about breaking through for so many years, yet it’s still blocked by high barriers. Why does ACO insist on perfecting the experience and the underlying closed loop? It’s to eliminate all those inhuman frictions. To make sending messages, interacting, and running apps as natural as using WeChat, letting technology adapt to people, not the other way around. Only when crypto products become as foolproof as everyday software will the industry truly enter its spring. Which complicated on-chain interaction has ever frustrated you? Vent in the comments below 👇 #ACO #Web3PainPoints #UserExperience #BlockchainDaily #BreakingThrough $Lobster Everyone says it can't hold, can't hold, so why does no one believe it? For these manipulated coins, as the price keeps rising, more and more people turn bearish. The manipulators will only sideways consolidate, then pump up sharply and dump, repeating this pattern without exception, unless the bears cut losses and leave. After surging to 0.0800 and then pulling back, it can drop to 0.0700-0.0720 to reverse and continue bullish, targeting 0.0780-0.0790. #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 CRYPTO TREASURY VOLATILITY MAY REVEAL THE REAL BUYERS. Recent ETF flows suggest that capital is no longer moving evenly across the crypto market. On September 2, $BTC ETFs posted +$101.15M in net inflows, reversing the previous day’s $236.5M outflow. Meanwhile, the flow picture for other major assets is starting to shift: 🔹 $ETH ETFs: 12-day inflow streak ended. 🔹 $SOL ETFs: First outflow after an extended period of positive flows. 🔹 $HYPE: Added to Hashdex’s U.S.-listed crypto index ETF wChasing pumps and panic-selling dumps is the fastest way to lose money. The problem isn’t always the market. Sometimes, you simply don’t understand what you’re actually holding. Different coins play completely different roles: 🟠 $BTC — The first destination for serious capital. When Bitcoin is stable, the entire market has a stronger foundation. 🔵 $ETH — The backbone of DeFi, stablecoins and the growing RWA ecosystem. When capital starts rotating out of BTC, ETH is often one of the first majorThe macro picture just changed a little. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged at the September meeting if the upcoming August inflation data continues to show signs of cooling. That pushed the market-implied probability of a September rate hike down from around 63% to 48.4%. For crypto, this is an important shift. A lower probability of another rate hike means less pressure from the dollar and yields, which can create a more favorable environmCRYPTO TREASURY: THE FLOW IS SHIFTING 🔄 $BTC ETF saw +$101.15M on Sept. 2, reversing the previous day’s $236.5M outflow. $ETH ETF’s impressive 12-day inflow streak has ended, while the $SOL ETF also recorded its first outflow after an extended inflow streak. Meanwhile, $HYPE has gained exposure through Hashdex’s U.S.-listed crypto index ETF, entering with a 3.4% weighting. Despite short-term volatility, crypto treasury firms continue to accumulate. The real question now is treasury durabilit$SKHYNIX Hynix faces mixed signals, but what is the reason for today's direct surge? $BTC You may choose not to trade US stocks, but you can't ignore why the surge happened! 1. Market: South Korea's KOSPI up 1.2%, SK Hynix +3%, Samsung +2%; related Hong Kong stocks up +6%. 2. Market share: Q2 HBM—SK Hynix 50%, Samsung 33%. 3. Supply and demand: HBM spot prices reach 4-5 times the long-term contract price; Dell/HPE/Broadcom collectively complain about shortages. 4. Expansion: Packaging base in Indiana started construction (investment of $4 billion, mass production of HBM4E by 2029); 1C DRAM expansion target raised nearly 2 times. 5. Macro: Fed's Waller signals dovish tone, boosting Asia-Pacific risk assets. Dasheng's trading advice: Aggressive fans can enter long positions at current prices, conservative fans can enter long positions near 1165. $SNDK Dasheng's view: The surge was triggered by the Korean stock market opening higher, and the above news is also positive. Without easing or negative news, short-term strategy is to buy the dips. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沃勒：August inflation decides whether to raise rates in September I am disciple of Brother Ci, and Waller has made a statement. Previously regarded as one of the most hawkish governors during Warsh's tenure, on September 3 he sent a clear signal: if August inflation continues the recent trend, he supports keeping rates unchanged; if the data is strong, he would consider supporting a rate hike in September. He also stated that the labor market is performing well and employment conditions are satisfactory. After his speech, CME data showed the probability of a September rate hike fell from over 70% to 50.2%, U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, and the dollar weakened. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 56,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Waller's remarks have tied the voting decision to the data. If nonfarm payrolls continue ADP's weakness, rate hike expectations will continue to fall, giving BTC a chance to rebound and test 80000. If nonfarm exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will rebound, and BTC will remain under pressure. Waller's shift to dovish remarks has lowered rate hike pricing, but nonfarm payrolls and CPI are the ultimate verdict. Don't bet on the data; wait for it to land before making a move. Brother Fei has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC $ETH ETH has pushed back toward the $2,500 area, which has repeatedly acted as a ceiling. Previous attempts to break this zone were rejected, so if the market continues to trade sideways, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another pullback from here. The interesting part is that shorting this area does offer decent risk/reward, but it’s definitely not a 100% setup. ETH has been showing strong momentum lately, and a clean break above roughly $2,500–$2,550 could completely invalidate the range-short idea aCRYPTO TREASURY — FLOWS ARE SHIFTING $BTC ETF flows rebounded with $101M inflows after the previous day’s $236M outflow. Meanwhile, $ETH and $SOL ETF flows are cooling after strong inflow streaks, showing that institutional demand is becoming more selective. Crypto treasury firms are still accumulating despite volatility. The real test now is who has the conviction and capital to keep buying through the next shakeout. #DailyOrbit I hope everyone never has to hold losing positions!! After more than 100 days, I finally broke even. Don't give up before the sunshine arrives; the cloudy sky will eventually welcome the sun. Currently fully out of positions, waiting quietly for tonight's non-farm payroll. $CL short on every rally, crude oil has risen from the high 79s within days to nearly 93, with 5% positions entered at 85, 89, and 92.7 respectively.$BTC has just bounced sharply around 82K, but below there are 5 notable risks: 1️⃣ Short squeeze has pushed the price too fast — hundreds of millions of dollars in short orders were liquidated 2️yesterday alone. ⃣ ETFs have not really exploded — after a strong August attracting capital, there was a withdrawal session of more than $236 million at 3️the beginning of the month. ⃣ Extremely hard 82–83K resistance — this is the key area; rejection can trigger profit-taking 4️. ⃣ Brent oil near $96 — US-Iran tensions could drag up inflation, making it difficult for the Fed to ease. 5️⃣ US Jobs Today2026.9.4 In the next two months, the price of $ETH is highly likely to maintain a volatile but slightly bullish pattern. After the recent rapid rise, the price will most likely consolidate first before seeking a new breakout direction. From a technical perspective, the 2300–2400 range is an important support zone. As long as this range is not effectively broken downward, the medium-term bullish structure remains resilient. On the upside, pay attention to resistance near 2560, 2750, and 3000 dollars. If trading volume surges and an effective breakout above 2560 occurs, ETH will further move toward the 3000–3300 range. (However, still be cautious of a drop toward 2000; avoid high leverage.) From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, dollar liquidity, and geopolitical situations remain key variables affecting crypto assets. If risk appetite significantly declines causing $ETH to break below 2200, be prepared for the price to further fall to around 2000. Therefore, in the next 2 months, you can use a martingale strategy to go long on $ETH, adding some trailing stop-loss short positions to capture gains on both sides. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Playing with crypto these past few years, the biggest realization isn’t how much I’ve earned, but how dumb I really am. At first, I knew nothing, blindly following the “teachers” in the group to chase DOGE, staring at the K-line charts at 3 a.m., my eyes nearly blinded. The first time I made enough to buy a hotpot meal, I thought I was the chosen one, immediately added more, only to wake up the next day with more than half my principal gone. Later, I learned my lesson and only played with spare money, treating it like buying a lottery ticket, which actually steadied my mindset. I found the scariest thing in this market isn’t the crash, but watching others flaunt hundredfold gains while struggling to control my own impulsive hands. I’ve heavily invested in $BTC and bottom-fished $ETH, but surprisingly, the one that lets me sleep peacefully is the most unassuming $DOGE. Don’t ask me why, maybe it’s because it’s cheap enough that when it drops, it doesn’t hurt, and when it rises, it’s a pleasant surprise. Now my strategy is super simple: dollar-cost average, then delete the app and go about my business. All those technical analysis lines and bars? I draw them better than anyone, but when it comes to trading, I rely entirely on my sixth sense. To put it bluntly, when whales move a finger, our emotions as small retail investors are their withdrawal codes. The most painful time was after liquidation; I stared blankly at the red numbers and suddenly felt this was no different from gambling, just wearing a high-tech disguise. Now I’ve learned to take profits and run, never getting attached, even if it soars afterward, I don’t regret it. A day in crypto is like a year in real life, that’s no joke—I’ve got a few gray hairs now. But if you ask me if I’m quitting, definitely not, because there’s a new story every day here, more thrilling than any TV drama. Finally, a heartfelt piece of advice: don’t borrow money, don’t get carried away, and don’t mistake luck for skill. Earnings are a pleasant surprise; losses are just tuition fees. Life goes on anyway. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 比特币冲破8万美元关口，进而挺进8.2万美元 不少知名交易者和机构开始选择落袋为安 市场多空分歧快速放大 交易员江卓尔公开表示 已经在82050美元清仓全部BTC仓位 并且策略调整为由看多ETH转为做空BTC 在他看来，本轮盘整周期太短 不足以支撑行情突破8.3‑8.4万美元强阻力 价格站上8.2万之后收出长上影 是短线离场信号 后续他重点等待70000‑72000美元区间再考虑接回筹码 另一边，投资机构Multicoin Capital也在分批出货HYPE代币 自7月28日至今 该机构已经抛售约1.12亿美元的HYPE 整体获利6408万美元，回报率超134% 最近一笔大额充值抛售就在3小时前 不止这两笔 近期链上数据显示 前期低位布局的一批机构、巨鲸 趁着本轮反弹都在陆续止盈 当下行情最大变量就是今晚20:30公布的美国8月非农就业数据 它会直接影响美联储9月加息与否的预期 今晚数据的可能反应： • 📊 新增5万-6万、失业率4.1%：符合预期，市场反应温和，焦点转向下周CPI • 📉 新增接近0或负增长、失业率升至4.2%以上：就业走弱信号放大，9月加息概率明显回落，利好黄金Crazy Pump! 🚀 Is the Bull Market Back? $BTC surged 77.3K → 81.6K, $ETH broke 2.5K, and $SOL reclaimed 104. Momentum is strong, but RSI6 shows $BTC/$ETH are already overbought. 🔹 $BTC: 81.2K | RSI6 79.5 Resistance: 82–82.5K | Support: ~79K 🔹 $ETH: 2.5K | RSI6 76.2 Resistance: 2.53–2.55K | Support: 2.45–2.48K 🔹 $SOL: 104 | RSI6 66.2 Resistance: 105–106 | Support: 101–102 This rally is mainly fueled by short covering ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls. Weak data could push BTC higher, while strong da$BTC 4H chart shows bullish divergence signal + oversold + EMA55 + range bottom 1H chart shows double bottom divergence signal + oversold + two valid candles and successful retest at 82k #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Crypto Morning Report | September 4: Nonfarm Payrolls Ahead — Don’t Rush the Move $BTC is trading around $80,900 (+4.5% in 24H) after briefly touching $82,300 overnight before getting rejected. The $82K area has now been tested and rejected twice, making it a key short-term resistance zone. $ETH is around $2,503 (+4.7%), while $SOL trades near $103.6 (+3.3%). Both are showing signs of short-term overheating after the recent rally. Key signals: 📈 Futures open interest has jumped roughly 8% inBitcoin Bear Market May Not Be Over, New Lows Still Possible • $BTC surged over 25% in a single week in late August, while $ETH and $SOL gained 34.1% and 28%. • Fidelity warns the traditional 4 year cycle may not repeat this time. • The market bottom may have already formed in July or Bitcoin could still retest new lows in November or later. • Stablecoin transaction volume has reached 2.3x Visa's volume, highlighting continued crypto adoption. • The RWA sector is expanding rapidlyAltcoins start to show more elasticity: SOL returns to over $100, XRP and HYPE compete for funds! $SOL is currently around $103.6, up 3.6% intraday, reclaiming the $100 level. ETF funds are still providing support, but 105.5 is the first resistance; if it holds above that, look towards 108. Falling back below 100 means it’s still range-bound, so don’t mistake a long bullish candle for a full breakout. $XRP is about $1.44, up nearly 6.7% intraday. Last week, spot ETF net inflows were about $110 million, showing that funds are stronger than the price. 1.40 has become support, while 1.48–1.50 is a dense area of trapped positions; only a volume breakout will target 1.55, otherwise expect a pullback after a rally. $HYPE is around $87.1, up nearly 6.8% intraday. Recently, ETF single-day inflows once reached about $24.42 million, indicating funds are spreading towards highly elastic assets. However, 88–90 is already a resistance zone; holding 83–85 is necessary to maintain momentum for further gains, and breaking below means risk of leverage liquidation. Looking at US stocks, $CIEN revenue grew 37%, EPS grew 215%, and it raised guidance, yet the stock dropped nearly 11%, clearly a valuation cut by the market; $HPE rose about 5%, with quarterly revenue of $12.2 billion, up 34%; $NTAP rose about 2.5%, with both revenue and EPS beating expectations. The most important thing this earnings season is not just good performance, but whether results exceed the expectations already priced into the stock. Now, as long as the BOJ steps in to buy yen, the US stocks, bonds, and currency markets can all improve. The reason is simple: the funds the BOJ uses to intervene in the yen come from FIMA. Since Waller took office, the Fed's operational framework has shifted from an ample system to a scarce system, locking in the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. This has caused severe competition between government financing and private financing. Especially, the debt issuance terms for AI CAPEX by high-tech companies are increasingly approaching the maturity of US long-term bonds, leading to more intense competition between private sector debt and government sector debt. Once the Bank of Japan utilizes FIMA, the Fed's balance sheet undergoes an expansion. When pledging, the BOJ pledges $10 billion of US Treasuries to the Fed. The Fed's asset side expands while the liability side expands equivalently, printing $100 in cash and depositing it into the BOJ's account at the Fed. When the BOJ uses this money to sell dollars and buy yen to support the yen exchange rate, the Fed's T-account no longer changes; only the liabilities on the liability side shift from reserves held by the BOJ to reserves held by other private banks. At this point, the BOJ's balance sheet begins to contract, returning to normal. Under the scarcity mechanism jointly created by Waller and Basset, US dollar capital is no longer an indiscriminate liquidity asset but a strict hierarchy based on the holder: US government capital > US private capital > foreign sovereign capital > foreign private capital. When liquidity tightens, the squeeze and sacrifice occur sequentially according to this hierarchy; when liquidity loosens, the release and profits occur in the reverse order.9.4ETH Layout Strategy Entry Range: Around 2480, pullback support for long positions Stop Loss Defense: 2450, exit immediately if it breaks below the Bollinger middle band First Target: Near previous high at 2525 Second Target: 2555, wave target after breaking previous high Third Target: 2585, extension of the upper Bollinger band The Bollinger bands opened upward earlier, now starting to contract, currently oscillating around 2500. It did not break the middle band early yesterday, the bullish trend structure remains intact. Continue to follow the trend for long positions today. This month is expected to keep rising. Long-term longs can consider the 2900 resistance level for $ETH #沃勒: August inflation determines whether to raise rates in September Waller said a key sentence last night — August inflation data will decide whether to raise rates in September. If August CPI and PPI continue recent progress, he supports keeping rates unchanged. If the data is strong, he will consider supporting a rate hike. Saying this is basically handing over the September meeting's trump card to next week's data. On employment, he gave a "satisfactory" evaluation; initial jobless claims at 206,000 are almost in line with expectations, and the labor market has not collapsed. After the speech, CME's probability of a September rate hike fell from above 70% to 50.2%, with US Treasury yields and the dollar weakening in sync. The market is repricing. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first checkpoint, with market expectations of an increase of 56,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Next week, CPI and PPI are the second. The FOMC meets on September 15-16. Before these three checkpoints are passed, the pricing of a rate hike versus no hike remains roughly split. The market will swing back and forth over these weeks. Everyone remember to manage your positions well $BTC $ETH $ZEC Good morning☀️ There is a line in "The Pursuit of Happyness": Don't let others tell you that you can't succeed. Happiness doesn't come out of nowhere; all gains come from persistent endurance. A new day, steady your mindset, and keep moving forward✨ #MorningBTCReview After a round of rally, the market entered a high-level range consolidation in the morning session. BTC maintained high-level consolidation, driving rotation among mainstream coins like ETH and SOL. The overall bullish structure remains intact, but short-term upward momentum has somewhat diminished. After continuous rises, profit-taking has appeared, and the market no longer accelerates in a straight line; oscillation and shakeout have become the main rhythm. After the non-farm payrolls release, the market began to reprice rate cut expectations. The volatility of the US dollar and US Treasury yields continues to constrain the market. Large funds have not chosen aggressive attacks, mostly opting for turnover and observation. The previous short squeeze in the contract market has ended, and the long-short game is gradually intensifying. On the trading side, the major trend remains bullish, but do not blindly chase highs. Pullbacks and oscillations are normal corrections in a bullish market and should not disrupt your rhythm due to short-term retracements. Focus on maintaining position discipline, set stop losses, and leave room for error. Staying in the market is more important than one-time huge profits. In industry news, Polymarket's massive financing has driven the narrative of prediction markets; Jiang Zhuoer announced his exit from ETH perpetual contracts, again reminding of the risks hidden in leveraged contracts. Most commodities closed higher in the overnight session, and cross-market linkage needs continuous tracking. Summary: The trend is intact, but momentum is weakening. Wait for the market to choose a further direction. Avoid heavy positions in speculative trades and patiently wait for more certain opportunities. Gm! Defeat anxiety with action, do one more thing when self-doubt arises 1️⃣【Crypto】Bitcoin returns to $81,000 Easing rate expectations drive market rebound, BTC once rose to $81,200, reclaiming the 50-week moving average. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next week's CPI may still change the subsequent trend. 2️⃣【On-chain Meme】Pons fees rank among the market leaders Pons generated about $6.33 million in fees in the past 24 hours, with a daily trading volume of about $544 million, nearly 25,000 new tokens issued, and on-chain activity continuing to expand. 3️⃣【US Stocks】Tech stocks lead gains, major indices rebound Dow up 1.18%, S&P 500 up 1.06%, Nasdaq up 1.40%. After bond yields fell, funds flowed back into AI, semiconductor, and crypto concept stocks. 4️⃣【Macro】Service sector prices continue to heat up US August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, input price index rose to 72.6. Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September dropped to about 50.4%, with tonight's nonfarm payrolls being key. $BTC $xQQQ $xSPY US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 206,000: Labor Market Still Stable, but Cooling Trend Continues According to the US Department of Labor, for the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims rose to 206,000, with the previous value revised to 204,000 and market expectations at 205,000, slightly above expectations. The four-week average rose to 207,250, and continuing claims increased to about 1.779 million. 📈 Slightly above expectations: bearish for the US dollar and US Treasury yields. 🧊 Absolute level still very low: 206,000 remains near historical lows, indicating no large-scale layoffs by companies. ⚠️ The real focus is on continuing claims: rising to 1.779 million, indicating a slowdown in the speed at which unemployed people are finding new jobs. Most important for tonight's nonfarm payrolls This data itself is mildly bearish for the dollar and mildly bullish for gold/US Treasuries/crypto assets, but the impact is limited. The market is really waiting for the August nonfarm payrolls. Currently, the market worries that: Initial claims remain low → layoffs are not severe; but hiring has clearly slowed → the labor market is "slowly cooling." If tonight's nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, the market will further bet on the Fed turning dovish, with BTC, ETH, and gold likely gaining more noticeable support, while Treasury yields and the dollar come under pressure. Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, it may push up expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates or even raise them.One chart: 35M → nearly 150M, in less than a month. Not hindsight. On 8.24 when it retraced, the exact words were: those who haven't entered can take some. Later it went on contracts, and in this BSC counterattack, it rose from the dragon one position. $MARSCOIN Just one question: Is 150M a relay, or the peak of this wave? Report numbers in the comments, not emotions.From last night until now, the core of the market is one sentence: with a shift in macro expectations, Bitcoin has directly driven the market upward. Bitcoin has climbed from around 77,000 to above 81,000, reaching a peak of about $82,300. It has risen nearly 5 points in the past 24 hours, causing over 96,000 short sellers to explode on the spot. The trigger for this big bullish candlestick is clear: initial jobless claims in the US exceeded expectations, the labor market finally shows signs of weakness, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller came out to give a dovish stance, saying that as long as August inflation data doesn't look bad, he supports pausing rate hikes. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 63% to around 50%, the dollar index weakened, risk assets collectively breathed a sigh of relief, and Bitcoin, as the asset most sensitive to liquidity, was definitely the first to jump up. Interestingly, although Bitcoin is rising well, spot ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, with $9.3 million yesterday running out again, indicating that traditional funds are not very eager to chase the rally. This round of rally is mainly driven by market sentiment and short covering in futures. Ethereum also took a dip, returning above $2,500, but the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still declining, indicating it still hasn't been as strong as Bitcoin. Looking at OKX's trending list and knockoff performance, the divergence is quite obvious. The gainers list are full of familiar faces and hot concepts, such as $EDGE and $CHIP jumping more than 30 points, while $ICX, $ZEC, and $CORE have all followed with gains of over ten points. #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday US stock market analysis: Waller dovish, indexes collectively rebound Last night, the three major US stock indexes all rose by more than one percent, marking the largest gain in nearly a month. The Dow rose over 600 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.4%. The core reason was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's speech, which was very clear—unless upcoming inflation data suddenly spikes, he tends to support holding off on a rate hike in September. Once this statement came out, the market's expected probability of a rate hike dropped directly from over 60% to about 50%, and Treasury yields also fell, easing pressure on the stock market. Sector-wise, the seven tech giants all rose across the board, led by Tesla and Meta. Additionally, the yen suddenly surged, weakening the dollar, and gold also rebounded. Bitcoin was even stronger, directly pushing back above $81,000, driving related concept stocks like Strategy and Robinhood up by more than ten percent. However, don't be too optimistic; the market is still split fifty-fifty on a September rate hike, and we still need to watch the nonfarm payroll and CPI data. In short, last night's rally was Waller giving the market a reassurance pill, but the alarm hasn't been fully lifted yet, so in the short term, follow the sentiment $BTC What happened in the market last night? Let me explain it clearly in 5 quick takes. No nonsense, just the essentials. Quick Take 1: Waller turns dovish overnight — this is the real trigger for the global surge Federal Reserve Governor Waller used to be a hawk among hawks, always talking about rate hikes. But last night, he suddenly changed his stance. He said: If inflation continues to improve, he supports keeping rates unchanged in September. He also added that the three-month core inflation shows "significant improvement," with a "encouraging" pace. Once this statement came out, the probability of a September rate hike plummeted from 63% to 50%. CME data was even more dramatic, with the hike probability dropping to just 48.4%, a 15 percentage point drop in one day. This is the real trigger for the market surge — not technicals, not liquidity, but a sudden easing in policy. Quick Take 2: Trump’s remarks + easing in the Middle East, geopolitical premium verbally wiped out Trump said two things last night. First: "Believe it or not, the stock market will go up." Second: The military action against Iran "won't last long." The U.S. has removed all Iranian equipment built along the Strait of Hormuz. Oil price gains immediately slowed. The geopolitical risk premium was wiped out with just a few words. Risk appetite instantly returned. Quick Take 3: Treasury Secretary Yellen says inflation is "under control," U.S. bond yields fall accordingly Treasury Secretary Yellen said in an interview last night: "Overall, prices are coming down, and core inflation is well controlled." She also specifically mentioned that U.S.-Canada trade friction "has had almost no impact on U.S. prices." U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar dropped to a one-week low. Gold surged past $4500. Quick Take 4: BTC breaks $82,000, crypto stocks rally collectively Bitcoin surged past $82,000 this morning, up over 5% in 24 hours. Crypto-related stocks exploded: MSTR (MicroStrategy) up 17.56% CRCL (Circle) up 16.44% COIN (Coinbase) up 10.14% The Dow rose 1.18%, Nasdaq led with 1.4%. Tesla gained over 5%, Meta over 3%. Capital is flowing back across the board; it’s not just one sector rising, everyone is buying. Quick Take 5: What to watch next? September 11 CPI Waller made it clear — data will decide his vote. Good CPI → no rate hike → keep rallying Bad CPI → hawkish turn → pullback Don’t bet on direction, wait for the data. CPI release is on September 11, just one week away. This week, hold your hands. In summary: Waller controls rate hike expectations, Yellen controls bond market confidence, Trump controls oil prices and geopolitics — three separate players. But the U.S. stock market is their shared testicle: don’t touch it, don’t squeeze it, if it hurts, they have to save it. Last night, the three giants teamed up to save it once. September 11 will be the real test. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 DON’T PANIC. WATCH THE MONEY. $BTC is at $80,975, after touching $82,285. The bigger signal isn’t just price: U.S. Spot $BTC ETFs recorded +$301.66M in daily net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching $55.01B. $ETH trades around $2,506.79, while Spot $ETH ETFs show +$68.02M daily net inflows and $13.09B cumulative. Prices may shake, but capital hasn’t left. Don’t stare at one red candle. Watch where the money is flowing. $BTC $ETH #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #DailyOrbit While everyone is celebrating the "Big Three's market rescue," what am I thinking? First, let's acknowledge the fact — it did rise last night. BTC briefly broke through $82,000 early this morning, now at $81,100, up 5.19% in 24 hours. The Dow rose 1.18%, the S&P 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Tesla surged over 5%, Meta over 3%. Crypto-related stocks went even crazier — Strategy (MSTR) up over 17%, Circle over 16%, Coinbase over 10%. Gold broke through $4,500 during the session. The Big Three joining forces had an immediate effect. But I want to ask a few questions. First, why was a "rescue" needed? Trump said "the stock market will rise," and to de-escalate the Middle East, saying the military action "won't last long." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said core inflation "has been well controlled." Fed Governor Waller — previously a hawkish hawk — suddenly changed stance, saying if inflation improves, he supports no rate hike in September. Three people, three lines, acting simultaneously. What does this indicate? It shows the market was already on shaky ground. The U.S. stock market is their shared asset, untouchable; if it hurts, it must be saved. But the very act of rescuing the market tells you — there was a big problem before. Second, how long can Trump's "de-escalation" last? He said the military action against Iran "won't last long." But on the same day, he also said he is "ready at any time" to strike Iran again. On September 1, the U.S. military just launched an attack in southern Iran. One moment threatening to strike, the next moment not. This back-and-forth itself shows instability. And what about oil prices? Brent crude nears $96, up 51% year-to-date. WTI has risen over 9% this week. Can an ever-escalating geopolitical conflict support the optimism of a "market rescue"? Third, how reliable is Waller's "dovish turn"? He said — "if" inflation continues to improve, he supports no rate hike in September. The key word is "if." August CPI will be released on September 11. The market expects overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, unchanged from July. But what if the actual data exceeds expectations? Waller would immediately revert to hawkish — don't forget, just two weeks ago, Fed Chair Powell sent hawkish signals at Jackson Hole, pushing the probability of a September hike close to 70%. After Waller's remarks, the hike probability dropped from 63% to 50%. 50% — meaning half the market still bets on a rate hike. This is not "the end of rate hikes," it's an "expectation of a pause." And how far can a rally supported by "expectations" go? Fourth, what does MSTR up 17% and COIN up 10% mean? Anyone in crypto knows a rule — a surge in crypto-related stocks often signals a short-term emotional peak. This is not a fundamental improvement; it's liquidity chasing the last thing it can. Institutions are buying, but futures open interest is declining. Retail is chasing, but leverage isn't keeping up. What comes after the peak? Think for yourself. Stay clear-headed during the party, stay rational during panic. BTC at $82,000 isn't expensive — if inflation is really falling, if the Middle East is really cooling down, if rate hikes are really over. But if next week's CPI slaps us in the face — if inflation doesn't fall, if oil prices keep pushing $100, if Waller flips back hawkish — $82,000 might be lost again. Buy in batches, keep light positions, wait for data. September 11 CPI, September 15 FOMC. Within two weeks, everything can be overturned. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Hello everyone on 2026.9.4, today's BTC outlook and approach still maintain yesterday's view, defined as a major rebound followed by a peak, forming a box range consolidation. The trend still maintains the previous bullish trend formed by the prior upward rally and box consolidation. Currently, after last night's rally, the market has revealed the late stage of a major bullish trend consolidation, with a minor bullish trend pullback. My current approach is to look for positions during the pullback, follow market sentiment, wait for the pullback to stabilize, find entry points, and follow the trend to go long, watching if BTC can break through the current new high BTC82282 and start the second wave of the major rebound.BTC just touched $77,000, ETH fell below $2,400, contract liquidations reached $120 million, and the panic index dropped to 42. Market sentiment has sharply cooled, but on-chain data shows a different picture: the long-short ratio has fallen to 0.85, short positions are becoming crowded, and historically when this indicator falls below 0.9 it often corresponds to a short-term bottom area; exchange lending rates have risen to 4.2%, indicating some funds are taking the opportunity to position. Miner holding costs are around $75,000, close to the shutdown price of some large miners, and historically this range often forms strong support. The USDT OTC premium has turned positive from -0.5% to +0.8%, showing signs of capital inflow, and the total stablecoin market cap has not contracted, with more money staying on the sidelines. The short-term key point is the September 4 employment data: if the data is weak, expectations of rate cuts may rise and boost the market; if the data is strong, the market may continue to oscillate and consolidate. Maintaining discipline during sharp drops is more important than predicting direction; placing orders in batches may be safer than betting all at once. It is important to note that high leverage carries extreme risks during volatile swings, and no support level is an absolute guarantee. Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, please control leverage and positions reasonably and make independent judgments. $BTC $ETHToday, BTC and ETH both rose more than 4% in a single day, accompanied by a concentrated liquidation of native high-leverage short positions and a positive shift in the Coinbase premium index — the driving forces behind this rally deserve a detailed look. On the funding side, after two consecutive days of net outflows, the spot ETFs of these two major assets both turned to net inflows on 9/3, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing about $300 million inflow in a single day, indicating that this is not just a technical rebound caused by short squeezes but also a return of genuine buying demand. (Figures 1 and 2) During the same period, gold futures broke through $4500/oz, with a single-day market value increase of over $1 trillion, and the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold rose to a nearly six-year high. The implication of this combination is that the market is treating BTC as a hard asset for inflation hedging rather than merely a risk-on asset. Supporting this logic is the PCE data showing that more than half of consumer goods prices have risen over 3%, combined with Vice President Pence publicly urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates — both inflation expectations and rate cut expectations are rising simultaneously, a combination historically favorable to hard assets. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The risk points are: Large short holders on Hyperliquid still maintain their positions and have not reduced holdings despite recording unrealized losses; this portion of capital constitutes potential fuel for a secondary squeeze and also indicates that resistance remains above. (Figure 3) The next two observation windows are: First, when these short positions will start to close and exit; second, whether ETF net inflows can continue to increase over multiple days — this will determine whether this rebound is a pulse or the start of a trend-level move.BTC pulled back from $77,050 to around $80,800. The 4-hour chart has already moved out of the weak zone from the past few days: the price has returned above the short-term moving average, MACD remains above the zero line, and RSI is starting to decline from a high level. The upper shadow near $82,280 indicates that selling pressure hasn't disappeared; the rebound has strength but isn't yet strong enough to ignore pullbacks. The capital flow supports this rebound. As of now, disclosed data shows a net inflow of $276.8 million into the US spot BTC ETF on September 3, marking the second consecutive day of inflows. The macro picture is a bit contradictory: the August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, with the price index at 72.6, the highest since August 2022, but the employment sub-index is only 47.8. Tonight at 20:30, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released. New job additions are just the first glance; the unemployment rate, wages, and the reaction of the 2-year US Treasury yield are more critical. Capital is flowing back, inflation pressure hasn't fully eased, so BTC is likely not going to be quiet tonight. #BTC #Bitcoin #Nonfarm #ETF$BTC 重新站上 $81,000，$ETH 也收复 $2,500，市场情绪在短时间内迅速转向。 📊 最新市场动态： • $BTC：一度触及 $81,400，创5月以来盘中新高。 • 清算数据：近期4小时内，约 $334.6M 的加密仓位被清算。 • 其中，空头清算约 $140M+，上涨过程中形成明显的短线逼空。 • 美联储理事 Christopher Waller 的偏鸽派表态，也为风险资产反弹提供了助力。 这意味着什么？ 当市场原本押注继续下跌，价格却突然突破关键阻力位，空头就不得不回补。 价格上涨 → 空头止损 → 强制买入 → 进一步推高价格。 这就是短线逼空的典型机制。 但需要注意： 清算推动的上涨，不等于新增资金已经全面进场。 最新市场分析也指出，近期反弹部分由空头回补推动，而不是完全由新的多头仓位主导。 所以，真正值得观察的不是“空头被清算了多少”，而是： → $BTC 能否守住 $80K？ → $ETH 能否稳定在 $2.5K 上方？ → 反弹结束后，现货买盘是否仍然持续？ 短期看，空头回补可以加速上涨。 中期看，只有真实需求接力，反弹才更有机会延续。 市场从来不会提The ADP 'small non-farm' report exploded first, and BTC surged directly to 81,000! 🔥 The bulls clearly jumped the gun this time. ADP's 'small non-farm' added only 38,000 jobs, far below market expectations, further strengthening signals of cooling employment. Coupled with the Fed's Beige Book releasing signs of weakening employment, the market's imagination for subsequent easing was instantly reignited. $BTC retook $81,000, and $ETH also broke through $2,500. But don't rush to celebrate; the real test hasn't started yet. The non-farm payrolls announced tonight at 20:30 are the key to determining the direction. The market currently expects about 53,000 new jobs in August. If non-farm continues to fall short of expectations— 📈 Rate cut expectations heat up 📈 Pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries eases 📈 Risk assets may continue to rally BTC even has a chance to challenge $82,000–$83,000. But if the data suddenly exceeds expectations, the bulls who entered early today may collectively stampede, and 81,000 could instantly turn from support into resistance. Positive signals also appear on the funding side: BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $101 million on Wednesday, and ETH spot ETFs have had net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.6 billion. So what really matters tonight is not whether the non-farm is good or bad, but whether it can continue to fuel rate cut expectations. Soft data, bulls accelerate; Hard data, early runners may exit first. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 ETF fund flows are diverging, and institutional allocation logic is also changing. 📊 Market observation on September 2: • $BTC ETF: net inflow of about $101.2M, reversing the previous day's outflow of about $236.5M. • $ETH ETF: the continuous 12-day inflow has come to a pause. • $SOL ETF: ended the previous continuous net inflow trend, experiencing outflows for the first time. • $HYPE: officially entered the Hashdex US-listed crypto index ETF, with a weight of about 3.4%, becoming the fund's fifth largest holding. What does this mean? Funds have not simply left the crypto market but are being reallocated among different assets. More importantly, corporate crypto treasuries continue to expand. For example, Strategy recently bought about 4,603 BTC again, with a total investment of about $370M, showing that some institutions are still using market volatility to increase reserves. But this does not mean all treasuries can withstand drawdowns indefinitely. The real test is: → Who has enough cash flow? → Who can keep buying during market downturns? → Who won’t be forced to sell due to financing pressure? Crypto Treasury Durability is becoming a key competitive advantage in the next phase. ETFs determine fund flows; treasuries determine holding depth. And the market will ultimately reward those who not only buy but also have the ability to hold long-term. 👀 #Crypto #BitcoMy personal judgment is quite clear: OKB is undervalued. As the second largest exchange, its ranking should be within the top 20. OKB is currently ranked 35th by market capitalization. But I have more confidence investing in OKB than in others, and I don't feel comfortable putting money on smaller platforms. Many surged into the top 20 during the bull market, but very few have maintained their rankings. In the long term, those with excessive gains but market share (user base) not keeping up will eventually fall out of the rankings. Investing in companies with strong competitiveness is the essence of investment. Stick to your position and ignore the opinions of the masses; most people in the market will not make money. Leverage can amplify profits but also increase losses. The market periodically liquidates leverage, providing spot investors opportunities to buy at low prices, while leveraged traders can go bankrupt at any time. The premise of achieving huge returns is to survive long enough. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 🔥 Tonight's Nonfarm Payroll Outlook! Three scenario simulations: What ⚠️ do they mean for BTC, gold, and SanDisk (SNDK) respectively? The following is only a macro logic review and does not constitute any investment advice. Core U.S. nonfarm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30: - Unemployment rate: expected 4.1%, previous value 4.1% - Nonfarm payrolls: expected +58,000, previous value −23,000 Last month, nonfarm payrolls saw negative growth; this time, market employment expectations have turned positive. The market is already watching this report to determine whether the Fed will raise interest rates in September. Remember the underlying logic first: the stronger the employment data, → the rising rate hike expectations → dollars; higher U.S. Treasury yields → risk assets under pressure; Weaker employment → rising expectations of rate cuts. → As the dollar weakens, gold and crypto assets are more likely to strengthen. Here are three possible scenarios: Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls > 58K (employment exceeds expectations). ✅ Example: 80,000 or 100,000 new jobs, unemployment rate remains 4.1% or lower. - 💎 Gold: Bearish. Strong employment supports Fed rate hikes, pushing US Treasury yields upward and putting pressure on gold to fall. - ₿BTC: Bearish. Currently, BTC and gold are increasingly linked, and the high interest rate environment reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets, making them more vulnerable to volatility and downward movement, increasing the risk of insertion. - 📈 SanDisk (SNDK, US storage chips): Bearish. SanDisk is a semiconductor cyclical stock, very sensitive to interest rates. Rising rate hike expectations will suppress valuations in growth sectors; At the same time,#沃勒：August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September The big event is coming; tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real first test. I interpret Waller's statement this time as one sentence: no one should rush to conclusions about a rate hike in September. If August inflation continues to cool down, he tends to hold steady; if CPI and PPI strengthen again, a rate hike remains on the table. After his speech, the market's expectation for a September rate hike clearly cooled, returning close to a 50-50 split. But what I personally focus on is not whether tonight's non-farm payrolls are high or low, but whether employment and inflation can simultaneously provide direction. Currently, July's non-farm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were significantly revised down. August ADP only increased by 38,000, indicating employment is not as strong as imagined. So my simple judgment is: if tonight's non-farm payrolls are below expectations and the unemployment rate continues to rise, the market will further bet against a rate hike. $BTC and $ETH have a chance to continue pushing upward. If non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations and wage growth is strong, then the bears will regain the initiative. In the short term, I am still bullish on BTC, focusing on whether it can hold around 80,000. Only if it holds can it continue to challenge previous highs. If ETH climbs back above 2,500, the upside space will reopen. But I won't draw conclusions about the big picture tonight. Non-farm payrolls are just the first hurdle; next week's CPI and PPI are the final exam that will decide the September FOMC. Currently, bulls and bears are evenly matched, and I am unwilling to bet on the answer prematurely. For now, I will keep my position steady. Long and Short Crowding Rankings Continuously paying fees is not scary; what is worth being cautious about is paying fees but failing to push the price. $CAP current rate -0.6089%, settled -1.357% in the past 24 hours, at the 0th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions are rising together, confirming that risk exposure is expanding with the increase. Short-side costs are high, and price positions are expanding upward; if the pullback does not break down, pressure will continue to remain on the short side. $EDGE current rate +0.0503%, settled -0.056% in the past 24 hours, at the 100th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions increased in 15 minutes, leverage risk exposure is increasing during this upward movement. The current rate is opposite to the 24-hour cumulative rate, position costs have reversed; when open interest is stable, do not mistake rate reversals for trend reversals. $ETH current rate +0.0100%, settled +0.018% in the past 24 hours, at the 100th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions fell and rose alternately in 15 minutes, risk exposure is expanding, next to see if selling pressure can continue to cause displacement. The long side is still paying fees, but price and open interest are moving down together; what can be confirmed now is that longs are under pressure, not that liquidation has already occurred. The non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet, but the bulls have already started celebrating early! $BTC has stepped up to 81,000, $ETH has returned above 2,500, and the market suddenly shifted from "no one dares to move" to "bulls rushing ahead." The reason is simple: The ADP small non-farm added only 38,000 jobs, showing a clear cooling in employment; the Beige Book also signaled a weakening labor market. The market has started to trade a new narrative — the Fed rate cut expectations are back. But don't get carried away here. Although market expectations for policy have clearly eased, the probability of a rate hike is still around 50%, so the risk has not disappeared. The real trigger is tonight's non-farm payrolls at 20:30. The expected new jobs are 53,000: If the actual data is below expectations, easing trades will continue to heat up, and risk assets may rally again, with $BTC directly challenging 82,000 or even 83,000. But if the non-farm suddenly surprises on the strong side, the bulls who chased in early today might instantly become "fuel" for tonight. More importantly, institutional funds have not withdrawn. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $101 million on Wednesday, and ETH spot ETFs have had net inflows for 11 consecutive days, totaling about $1.6 billion. So the current market essentially is: Bulls are betting on soft data, bears are betting on strong data. 81,000 has been reclaimed, and next it depends on whether the non-farm can ignite the bulls further. Once the data is out tonight, the direction may be revealed immediately. If the bulls are right, 82K–83K is in sight; If wrong, the funds chasing above 81K won't get away unscathed.
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