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Solana "starts voting today," but the official website still shows 0 active
A hot post claims "Solana voting starts on August 23." Checked the official governance page at 10:09: active proposals 0, SGP-0002 and 0003 are still in Discussion.
0002 proposes to increase the inflation decay rate from 15% to 30%, 0003 proposes to burn 100% of resource fees; 18.9 million $SOL is an estimated reduced issuance over six years, not yet implemented.
If the official site switches to Voting and active changes from 0 to 1, I will change my stance.
If you believe governance has "already happened," considering the message date and official stage, what evidence would make you reconsider?
Data: Solana Validator Governance, 10:09.
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
#OKX星球 #SOL $SPCX is at a critical juncture where the high-level stagnation around $140 intersects with the liquidity shock from the unlocking of 319 million shares before Monday's opening. The core current tug-of-war is between the buying support and the profit-taking reduction willingness.
After accumulating chips below $140 for five consecutive trading days last week, momentum has waned, and weekend trading remained sideways, showing fatigue in high-level buying. The release of 319 million unlocked shares significantly increases the actual circulating supply in the market, sharply raising the liquidity absorption demand.
Among the factors affecting current risk appetite, the priority of chip expansion caused by unlocking is significantly higher than the previously expected benefits from AI computing power and orbital launch advancements. The concentrated release of chips directly suppresses bullish sentiment, and the profit-taking risk-avoidance withdrawal tendency becomes the main driving force for short-term position adjustments.
The bullish scenario requires observing whether spot buying can quickly absorb the selling pressure from unlocking at Monday's opening. If the price can rebound with volume and hold above $140, it indicates that the new liquidity has been fully absorbed, and the bullish structure may be maintained; if volume near the $140 mark shrinks, the bullish pattern is invalidated.
The bearish scenario is triggered by weak buying support at the open. If incremental buying at Monday's open fails to absorb the selling pressure, causing the price to break below the $130 defense line with volume, it will directly trigger concentrated profit-taking withdrawals and a cascading sell-off; if the rebound cannot return above $130, a weak downward trend is established.
The $130 level is not only the critical dividing line for bullish position support but also the boundary where market valuation expectations shift from optimism to risk contraction. Once this level is broken, the trust brought by fundamental positives will be interrupted by market realities.
The key variable to watch in the next 24 hours is whether the trading volume near the $130 mark within the first two hours of Monday's opening can effectively match and offset the concentrated release of unlocked shares.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战Short sellers have just been flushed out, and money is quietly moving.
The crypto market appeared calm over the weekend, with $BTC steady around $77,000 without any movement. But if you only focus on mainstream coins, you might have missed an undercurrent—$ZEC surged with volume, $TRUMP skyrocketed in a single day, and altcoins are quietly heating up. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
What ignited the rally was the dual resonance of macro policies and a short squeeze: U.S. long-term bond repos pushed yields down, Trump called for advancing the "Clear Act," and the SEC plans to exempt some digital assets from registration. These three positive factors combined led to concentrated liquidation of short positions, with over $3.4 billion liquidated across the network in 5 days.
But short squeezes eventually end. The real question is: after the shorts are cleared, who will take over?
The good news is that spot buying is entering the market. Thirteen spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion this week, and whales increased holdings by about $2.75 billion over 60 days. The market is transitioning from a "shorts stampede" to a "bulls relay."
In sectors, ZEC is catalyzed by the Grayscale ETF but is already overbought; TRUMP is sentiment-driven and may pull back at any time; OKB has a more solid logic and is worth watching if it stabilizes around $115.
This weekend, don’t chase the top gainers; focus on ETF capital flows and trading volume—the short squeeze comes fast and goes fast. The directions that can survive cycles are always those supported by fundamentals.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Today, while watching the market, I didn't even notice my coffee going cold. It's not because the market was that exciting, but because I discovered a more intriguing detail: the fund flows of ETFs are no longer a solo show for Bitcoin. Have you noticed that recently everyone is looking for the "next big gainer," but the truly smart money seems to be quietly casting a much bigger net? The data from August 21 actually illustrates this well. BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $307 million, ETH also saw $185 million, and even secondary mainstreams like XRP and SOL received $18.38 million and $10.07 million respectively. Looking at the numbers alone might not seem like much, but when viewed together, the picture changes. This isn't a scattered "sharing the rain and dew" scenario; it's institutional money intentionally allocating across assets. In the past, we always said "Bitcoin rises first, then Ethereum, then altcoins catch up"—that was a relay race driven by retail sentiment. But now, in this chain, funds are entering simultaneously and laying out synchronized plans, more like a team acting in different directions rather than a crowd squeezing through the same door. What does this change mean? I think the market might be trading on a grander expectation—if institutions are preparing positions for "crypto assets as an independent allocation category," then the current inflow pace might just be a warm-up, not the finish line. Everyone keeps focusing on whether Bitcoin's price can break its previous high, but they overlook that the capital structure has shifted from "single bets" to "portfolio building." However, I'm not that optimistic yet $SPCX stalled in sideways trading over the weekend after hitting the $140 mark, with 319 million shares about to be unlocked before Monday's open, making liquidity absorption capacity the core point of contention in the market.
Last week, five consecutive trading days gradually revealed weakening buying momentum, with high-position chips accumulating below $140 and no further volume-driven upward momentum seen.
Optimistic expectations driven by AI computing power demand and orbital launch progress are now facing the actual increase in circulating chips due to unlocking, with profit-taking willingness beginning to suppress market risk appetite.
When incremental buying cannot match the liquidity shock from unlocking, the strength of position absorption at the key $130 support line will directly determine whether the trend can be maintained.
If Monday's open is accompanied by spot buying that quickly absorbs the selling pressure from unlocking and holds above $140, the bullish structure still has room to continue; if volume shrinks here, the upward pattern will be invalidated.
If weak absorption at the open causes a significant volume drop below the $130 support line, concentrated profit-taking could trigger a chain reaction of chip sell-offs, and the signal that a weak downward trend is established would be a rebound failing to return above this level.
If market trust in fundamental positives is continuously interrupted by selling pressure, originally firm valuation expectations will quickly give way to risk contraction.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is whether the trading volume near the $130 level in the first two hours after Monday's open can offset the concentrated release of unlocked chips.
#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？#Eth
Short term (next 2-4 weeks): This surge is very likely not a "mirage" — real ETF inflows, 83% of tokens held by long-term holders, and liquidity expectations from U.S. Treasury repos all provide solid support. However, a 23% weekly increase pace is unsustainable; it is expected to oscillate and digest between 75,000 and 80,000, with a possible pullback to test support at 70,000.
Medium term (next 3-6 months): The real watershed is whether the U.S. "Clear Act" can pass the Senate vote and be implemented in September. If it passes, the market will shift from "expectation trading" to "trend trading," confirming the start of a bull market; if delayed again or weaker than expected, this surge is likely just a technical rebound within a bear market — historically, such rebounds are common in bear markets, aiming to "lure buyers in and then harvest liquidity again."TRUMP team allocation (Team Allocation) address appears to have sold $10 million $TRUMP in the past 2 hours 🤨
These 4.086 million tokens were transferred multiple times and eventually deposited into #OKX, purpose unknown; this is also the first time in three weeks that this deposit address has received TRUMP tokens from the same source
Wallet address GhvHQsiVr8zwY1ot7Scd65yDjLjsrmdHsmCNKv2S8xE1What's the current situation with HYPE? Why is it so strong? It's essentially not just hype; the platform's trading volume has consistently topped the charts, generating hefty fees, most of which are used for buybacks and burning. As the burn continues, the circulating supply outside decreases, and with institutions and long-term holders locking their coins tightly, selling pressure naturally eases. In the past couple of days, after breaking previous highs, it keeps pushing upward. Even when BitBTC 80,000 vs 75,000: Which Will Arrive First?
On the morning of August 23, $BTC was quoted at $77,249, down slightly by 0.77% in 24 hours; $ETH was at $2,430, down 3.58%. After a rollercoaster-like shakeout, BTC surged to a high of $79,400 on the evening of August 22 but then sharply dropped overnight, hitting a low around $74,200. The largest intraday pullback exceeded 6%, with over $1.4 billion in liquidations across all contracts, making long positions the main buyers in this volatility.
The battle over capital flows has long been brewing beneath the surface. Spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding $1 billion in a single week, clearly signaling institutional capital returning; the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, injecting expectations of improved liquidity into the market; the narrative of "dilution of the dollar's purchasing power" continues to ferment, with BTC and gold synchronously becoming safe havens for capital. However, the other side of the coin cannot be ignored: this rally was largely driven by forced buying from concentrated short liquidations rather than fresh inflows from the spot market; additionally, a whale precisely sold 7,700 BTC (about $577 million) within three days, timing the sales right after BTC hit $78,700; combined with RSI entering the overbought zone, technical correction pressure is poised to emerge.
The key battleground on the chart has long been locked between two ranges. The $74,000–$75,000 zone is the lifeline for bulls in this rally; if this level holds, the market is likely to enter a phase of high-level consolidation and sideways trading, using time to digest profits and maintain confidence for another push toward $80,000. If this support breaks with volume, it could trigger a bull stampede, seeking support at $72,000 or even lower. Meanwhile, the $78,000–$80,000 range has accumulated a large amount of previously trapped positions, coupled with whale selling activity, forming an invisible "ceiling" and the biggest resistance to a bullish breakout.
Overall, BTC is more likely to oscillate at high levels between $74,000 and $80,000 in the short term. The probability of breaking above $80,000 is slightly higher than a direct breakdown below $75,000 that would ignite a bearish trend. However, close attention must be paid to the $74,000–$75,000 support zone; if lost, the risk of a deep pullback will significantly increase. Future factors such as sustained ETF capital inflows, the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and interest rate paths at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and the regulatory expectations tied to the September 15 CLARITY Act vote will be core variables influencing the market's direction.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC The market is currently very difficult to judge because it is influenced by many factors. However, my bold judgment is that the bear market cannot be declared over yet. Most likely, it will still go up, just to see if it can reach up and try, then in September to October (possibly even earlier, as this market moves so fast, I don't know if it can hold) it will pull back to 70k–76k. This is the real test to determine whether it is a 2018-style failed rebound or a 2023-style state transitionI think this momentum is about to run out. From 64,000 to 78,000, it relied on the Treasury's repurchase easing + nearly 1 billion swept by ETFs in three days + shorts being squeezed for 2.7 billion, a short squeeze created by these three forces. But the shorts have been mostly liquidated this time; ETF inflows were 517 million on the 19th and shrank to 103 million on the 20th, showing that follow-up funds have clearly thinned out. The 4-hour RSI is 93, daily RSI 83; this kind of overbought condI think this momentum is about to run out. From 64,000 to 78,000, it relied on the Treasury's repurchase easing + nearly 1 billion swept by ETFs in three days + shorts being squeezed for 2.7 billion, a short squeeze created by these three forces. But the shorts have been mostly liquidated this time; ETF inflows were 517 million on the 19th and shrank to 103 million on the 20th, showing that follow-up funds have clearly thinned out. The 4-hour RSI is 93, daily RSI 83; this kind of overbought condTo be honest, I've been watching the market closely this week and feeling a bit dazed.
BTC surged from 63,000 straight up to 77,000, a 24% increase in one week. On August 22nd, when it touched 79,555, someone in my group shouted "bull run quickly returning." But I didn't move.
Why? The massive shakeout in July taught me a lesson — it wasn't a narrative collapse, it was leverage piled too high, and the chip structure blew up. How many funds worldwide have leveraged AI? At the slightest disturbance, a stampede is inevitable. But what about the industry itself? Nvidia server prices rose over 15%, AI intelligent agents are being called the "year of landing," and Alibaba says computing power investments will pay off in three years — the narrative hasn't changed at all, only who holds the chips has.
Now the chips have been washed down to mid-low levels, both upward and downward moves will be dulled. In plain language: don't chase after big gains, but be willing to catch sharp drops. Yesterday's pullback and today's capital revival prove this.
My strategy is simple: hold tightly in core positions at high levels, and rotate quickly in and out at low levels. Don't get attached to battles, don't get emotional.
How you see it yourself is ten thousand times more important than what others shout.所以，币圈这是回来了吗？ 比特币蹦了 11%，以太坊更狠，直接飙了 19%。大概 30 亿美金的空单被一把清零。 一天之内，整个加密市场市值涨了差不多 2800 亿美金。 但邪门的是——这些跟币圈本身没半毛钱关系。 没有新应用落地，没有协议升级，也没有比特币减半。 那到底抽了什么风？ 美国财政部突然看自家长期国债不顺眼，于是给市场拧了个“扭曲”操作。 这期视频，咱们就掰开揉碎讲讲，财政部长 Besson 到底干了啥，以及我觉得他偷偷看到了什么。 因为扒开所有表面动作，底子里就一场对决：AI 硬扛美国债务危机。 表面上看，这周市场动了三个地方。 第一，财政部决定把长期国债回购规模翻倍——从每笔 20 亿提到至少 40 亿，涉及 10 年到 30 年期债券，9 月 9 号开始执行。 说白了就是，没人想买美债，政府自己下场买自己的债，因为收益率已经涨得太难看——30 年期刚摸到 5.34%，近 20 年新高。 Besson 今天在 NBC 上放风，说回购可能还不止 40 亿。 他原话是：“我们觉得这块市场流动性太薄，常规回购操作我们会加码，单笔可能超过 40 亿。” 他还说 30 年期美债“The market this week gives one clear impression: money is voting with its feet—gold broke through 4600, silver surged near 70, BTC peaked around 79,000; the three hard currencies are flying together, while bonds are just playing dead, the safe-haven cover is almost torn apart.
These three combined send a very clear signal: global capital is systematically abandoning credit assets and embracing hard currencies.
Gold is the big brother, with central banks buying aggressively, geopolitical chaos, and declining dollar credit; 4600 is just the beginning. Silver is even more aggressive, with dual buffs from industry and safe haven, its volatility crazier than gold, directly hitting 70. And BTC? Known as digital gold, this rally shows the market has already categorized it alongside gold—as the opposite of fiat currency.
Looking at bonds, it’s almost a joke. The total US debt just broke 40 trillion, annual interest payments have already exceeded defense spending, nearly matching healthcare, becoming the third largest federal expense. For every 5 dollars the federal government collects in taxes, 1 dollar goes to interest payments. Is this safe haven? It used to be said buying government bonds meant sleeping soundly; now it means buying bonds to bail out the government.
Some say the real interest rate of +2.35% isn’t low, so why is gold still rising? Because the market fears not inflation, but credit—40 trillion in debt snowballing, interest payments are barely manageable, and that coupon can’t cover default risk premiums. When sovereign credit is in trouble, traditional models fail.
But a reminder: don’t chase these three to the top and go all in; short-term pullbacks can teach harsh lessons. The allocation strategy is to hold long term.
Summary: The safe-haven assets have switched tracks. $XAU +$XAG +$BTC are the new three giants; bonds? Relics of a past era.Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, makes a straightforward judgment — the $100,000 year-end target might be too conservative, and Bitcoin is expected to climb further from the current level to $126,000.
$126,000 means a 63% increase from the current $77,000.
The Bitget CEO believes that macroeconomic uncertainties may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate within a $10,000 to $20,000 range around the current price over the next few months. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 before 2027 has risen to 48%.
Short positions have been cleared, ETFs continue to attract funds, institutions are rushing in, and Standard Chartered is calling for $126,000. However, there are still large whales selling at the $80,000 level, and the Treasury's buyback benefits are expectations, not yet executed. At the $77,000 level, the direction is not fully determined. The risk of chasing highs is increasing; it will be more stable to confirm a pullback before moving up again.
$BTC CoinShares believes that the whales have stopped selling and have started accumulating again.
Bitcoin has also broken through the 200-day moving average.
But the 80,000 level hasn't been surpassed yet, and Besent himself said the market is "a bit overreacting."
The Treasury's buyback announcement only takes effect on September 9, so the current rise is driven by expectations, not actual money inflow.
How far the expectations can push depends on whether the ETF data on Monday can continue the momentum. If it can't, the bears should return. $BTC Let me show you the mechanism of this coin. The recent rise of LAT coin wasn't driven by any major whales pumping it. I bought twice, and that alone caused this increase. It was me, a small retail investor, pushing it up with just over 1,000 USD. After buying, its market-making bot follows up with purchases. Of course, it also follows up with sales when you sell. It only serves to provide liquidity depth and isn't very useful. Even without it, my buying would have caused this much of a rise. Don't bother with this coin, better to exit early. The project team's monthly reports have stopped updating, probably disbanded. Even if it rises further, it will only spike a few times in the last days when idle funds come in to buy. Exit early, now put your bullets into the main Ethereum series; they will rise first. #LAT Japan is the world's largest overseas creditor (holding $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries). Now the central bank has raised interest rates to 1% (the highest in 31 years). The U.S. and Japan jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market, dumping 14 trillion yen (about $86 billion), and the finance minister called for guiding funds back. Once carry trades are collectively unwound, global risk assets will face sell-offs, potentially replaying the 1989 bubble burst.
**✅ Accurate points:**
1. **Japan is indeed the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries:** As of June 2026, it held $1.1167 trillion (according to U.S. Treasury TIC data). The video mentioned $1.2 trillion; in February it was indeed $1.239 trillion, but it has reduced holdings by $122.6 billion in four months.
2. **The scale of U.S.-Japan joint intervention is accurate:** On July 30-31, Japan injected about 14.1 trillion yen, marking the first direct U.S. cooperation to buy yen since 1998. The yen briefly rose from 164 to 155.
3. **BOJ interest rate at 1% is accurate:** On June 16, a 25 basis point hike to 1%, the highest since 1995. But the video said "just now"—in reality, this happened two months ago.
4. **Carry trade scale is huge:** Guangfa Macro estimates yen currency swap size reached $7.87 trillion by the end of 2025. The unexpected BOJ rate hike in August 2024 triggered a 12.4% single-day drop in the Nikkei, wiping out $3.5 trillion globally.
5. **30-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.33%:** On August 18, it hit a new high since 2007, which is true.
6. **The September BOJ meeting is a real risk point:** Market pricing for a rate hike to 1.25% has reached 76%-80% probability.
**❌ Exaggerations and misleading points:**
1. **"Japan withdrawing from global investments" is a wrong characterization.** Japan's reduction in U.S. Treasuries is mainly to intervene in the forex market to raise dollars, not strategic divestment. U.S. Treasury data shows overseas private investors net bought $207.1 billion in U.S. long-term securities in June—officials are selling, but private investors are buying. Also, Japan cannot massively dump U.S. Treasuries because it would crash the value of its $1.1 trillion holdings. The U.S. even provided the FIMA repo facility, allowing Japan to borrow dollars using U.S. Treasuries as collateral instead of selling directly.
2. **"1989 bubble burst replay" is clickbait.** In 1989, Japan had an extreme domestic asset bubble (Nikkei PE ratio 70x, Tokyo land could buy the entire U.S.). Today, Japan is raising rates by a modest 0.25% after 30 years of deflation—completely different.
3. **Intervention effects have proven short-lived.** After the yen rose from 164 to 155, it returned to around 159 by late August. The U.S.-Japan interest rate differential remains 2.5 percentage points (U.S. 3.5-3.75% vs. Japan 1%), so the carry trade logic remains. The video only mentions intervention without the rebound, selectively presenting facts.
4. **This channel itself is a crash drama series.** Recent video titles:
- 8/8: SpaceX unlocked, "total loss"
- 8/10: South Korea crash, "next is U.S. stocks"
- 8/14: JPMorgan warns, "never buy stocks or bonds"
- 8/17: 2008 subprime replay, "no one escapes"
- 8/21: Japan divestment, "global crash is coming"
A crash prediction every week, one bound to be right by chance. This is a standard fear marketing model of content factories.
5. **The video was released two days ago; no global crash has occurred.** BTC is still at $77K, U.S. stock futures are stable. The largest single-day volatility was on August 13 (Prime Minister's speech triggered a 214-point yen surge), but it was digested the same day.
- **Gradual unwinding is the mainstream expectation.** CMB Strategy clearly points out this is fundamentally different from August 2024—the rate hike was expected, and unwinding is gradual, not panic-driven.
- **The real danger scenario** is: BOJ hikes more than expected in September (50bp instead of 25bp), combined with the Fed not cutting rates, causing the yen to rapidly surge to the 140-145 range, triggering forced liquidation chain reactions.
- **But BOJ has no motive for aggressive hikes.** Japan's government debt exceeds 230% of GDP; each 1 percentage point rate increase sharply raises fiscal interest costs. Japan itself is the biggest victim and would not commit fiscal suicide by aggressive hikes.
1. **The September BOJ meeting (September 17-18) is a real risk event.** Along with Nvidia earnings (8/27) and Jackson Hole meeting (8/28-29), it forms a triple uncertainty from late August to mid-September. Your current strategy of staying out and waiting for a pullback is completely correct; no rush.
2. **Gold has already run up.** Previously said to consider at 4400-4500, now COMEX gold is at $4680, up 5.48% in a week. Middle East tensions + U.S. debt credit issues + yen volatility all contributed. Chasing highs is not cost-effective; wait for a pullback.
3. **If September BOJ really triggers risk asset sell-offs,** BTC/ETH/SOL might also drop, which would be your first and second buying opportunities. Yen carry trade unwind sell-offs are usually short-term liquidity shocks, not fundamental deterioration. The 12% Nikkei drop in August 2024 was followed by BTC hitting new highs three months later.
4. **Your 100U contract position need not fear this level of macro risk.** Even if a black swan occurs, the maximum loss is 100U, and holding your core spot position is sufficient.
5. **Wife's account:** BTC base position cost $59,978, a huge cost advantage, with a trailing stop at $65,000 as a floor. SOL stop loss set at $85. Macro volatility does not affect long-term holding logic.
In short: this video packages real risk data into a "crash tomorrow" horror story. Japan's rate hikes and carry trade unwinding are slow variables to watch in the second half of 2026, not a nuclear bomb triggered by an $86 billion intervention. You have positions and ammunition; what you're waiting for is the opportunity created by this uncertainty.How Do After-Hours US Stock Market News Affect Cryptocurrency Volatility?
$BTC $ETH $
✅ Core Summary in One Sentence
After-hours US stock market news does not directly affect crypto prices through stock price changes but transmits through [US Treasury yields/USD → risk appetite → institutional funds → sector sentiment]; BTC/ETH are high Beta risk assets and usually react more strongly than the Nasdaq, while privacy coins like ZEC amplify this elasticity even further.
Key distinction: After-hours US stock liquidity is very thin; simple after-hours spikes in small-cap stocks are basically ineffective; only major news that can change US Treasury yields, rate cut expectations, crypto-related listed companies, or AI industry expectations will drive the crypto market.
I. Four Clear Transmission Paths (ranked by strength)
1) Macro Expectation Transmission (strongest, affects the entire BTC/ETH market)
After-hours release of Fed officials’ speeches, inflation/employment guidance, Treasury bond policies, etc. → directly drives 10-year US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY).
✅ Treasury yields falling, USD weakening: opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets like BTC decreases, risk appetite rises, benefiting the crypto market.
⚠️ Treasury yields rising, USD strengthening: funds flow back to Treasuries for safety, crypto is prioritized for reduction (leveraged positions get liquidated en masse, often falling more than the Nasdaq).
Essence: The core anchor for crypto is US Treasuries + USD, not the Nasdaq itself; US stock earnings reports have limited impact if they don’t change Treasury expectations.
2) After-hours volatility in crypto-related stocks (direct emotional stimulus)
After-hours volatile tickers: COIN (Coinbase), MSTR (MicroStrategy, heavy BTC holder)
MSTR after-hours big moves: strongly linked with BTC, institutions adjust positions synchronously; MSTR crashes directly suppress BTC.
COIN after-hours drops: market interprets as rising crypto industry profit and regulatory risks, weakening overall market sentiment.
Feature: serves as an industry confidence signal, directly affecting BTC and ETH, and indirectly influencing privacy coins like ZEC through sentiment.
3) AI tech giants’ after-hours earnings (impacting ETH and computing power narratives)
Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft after-hours earnings & capital expenditure guidance:
Exceeding expectations + raising capex: AI liquidity expectations heat up, growth risk appetite rises, ETH and computing power-related tokens show greater elasticity.
Below expectations, lowering guidance: growth stocks get valuation cuts, ETH and altcoins face pressure.
Privacy coins like ZEC are minimally affected directly by Nvidia earnings, mainly following the broader market Beta unless combined with privacy/regulatory news.
4) Pure risk appetite spillover (broad rises and falls, altcoins amplify)
After-hours US stock panic (bank risks, geopolitical, earnings shocks) → institutional risk control reduces exposure, prioritizing selling liquid, high-volatility crypto assets (BTC → ETH → ZEC and other thematic coins show progressively amplified volatility).
Pattern: strongest linkage during panic sell-offs; often decoupled in mild markets; crypto trades 24/7, so during after-hours US stock market closures, crypto prices may pre-price and spike.
II. Key Screening: Which After-Hours News Truly Moves Crypto Prices?
✅ High weight, worth monitoring:
Fed officials, inflation/employment, Treasury repo news that change rate cut expectations
Major after-hours earnings/announcements from COIN, MSTR
AI leaders like Nvidia significantly beating or missing expectations + major capex guidance adjustments
US stock after-hours announcements directly related to crypto regulation, ETFs (Grayscale, spot BTC/ETH ETFs)
❌ Noise, basically no impact:
Ordinary small/mid-cap stocks moving ±10%~20% after-hours (thin volume, false moves)
Corporate earnings that don’t affect Treasuries or crypto/AI main themes
Social media rumors, unsubstantiated verbal leaks
Rule of thumb: first check if Treasuries and USD move; if they don’t, isolated after-hours stock spikes are mostly short-term emotional noise with poor sustainability.
III. Sensitivity Differences Among Cryptos (for BTC/ETH/ZEC you follow)
BTC: most like a "crypto version of Nasdaq high Beta," most sensitive to Treasuries, USD, and spot ETF funds, serving as the market anchor.
ETH: Beta > BTC, often shows larger price swings than BTC in AI/liquidity-driven markets.
ZEC (privacy theme): dual Beta = broad market sentiment + independent privacy/Grayscale ETF narrative
→ When market risk appetite rises, combined with Grayscale ZEC ETF themes, elasticity far exceeds mainstream; but during market sell-offs without thematic support, drawdowns are deeper.
IV. Practical Observation Sequence (after after-hours news)
US stock after-hours news → ① 10-year Treasury yield, USD DXY → ② COIN/MSTR after-hours moves → ③ BTC spot + perpetual funding rates, open interest → ④ then check ETH, ZEC and other Beta tokens for benefits; if Treasuries don’t move and COIN/MSTR don’t react → weak positive, prone to spike and fall, bearish if Treasuries rise + COIN drops → crypto leveraged positions easily cascade liquidations, amplifying declines.
V. An Important Misconception
Don’t simply think: US stocks rise after-hours → BTC must rise
Decoupling often occurs: for example, strong US tech earnings but market interprets as "economy too strong, rate cuts delayed, Treasuries rise," which is bearish for BTC. The core is always Treasuries and rate cut expectations, not stock price moves themselves. Just exited near 80, looking at the two-digit return rate on the settlement slip, that feeling of "holding on" is quite reassuring. In the contract market full of spikes, making money purely based on logic and holding positions feels much more comfortable.
🚀 Trade Logic Review
This long position was not taken just because it dropped and looked cheap, but was based on a more solid logical foundation.
· Core News: Hyperliquid gained access to the US market (CFTC compliant) and integration with Coinbase Base, solving the fundamental bottleneck of obtaining large institutional funds. This is a nuclear-level positive for the project's valuation.
· Structural Pattern: The take-profit was set at 98/93.52, following the long-term platform breakout and pullback confirmation rule, a textbook "breakout—retest—continuation" pattern.
· Candlestick Momentum: After stabilizing above 70 [30m], the momentum to hold above the historical high of 76-77 is strong; daily trading volume and open interest both surged simultaneously, confirming this is not a simple rebound but the start of a new trend.
· Fundamental Support: Hyperliquid's daily revenue reaches $4.4 million, with the vast majority used to repurchase and burn HYPE, providing a price floor while continuously reducing selling pressure.
🎯 Key Levels and Insights
· Resistance and Thresholds: 80 is the key bullish momentum line for this wave. Successfully holding above means entering the vacuum price discovery zone above $80. Going forward, watch the psychological levels near 83 and 85 for potential whale profit-taking. Consecutive integer levels after a breakout are often the strongest bait and resistance.
· Market Viewing Rules: Use 15-minute and 1-hour charts to time entries, and 4-hour and daily charts to set the overall direction. Enter on pullbacks, defend based on structural patterns. In a bullish trend, as long as the strong support at 75-77 holds, confidence in holding positions remains high.
The current market has already moved to the right side. Although profits have been secured, HYPE, with its solid technology and strong news fundamentals, is very likely to start a main upward wave. Next, focus on whether it can firmly hold the 75-77 range, which will be the barometer for whether the subsequent resistance can be broken to surpass 100.BTC Morning Report｜August 23
This morning, I think the most important conclusion is just one sentence:
The bullish logic for BTC is still intact, but what will truly determine whether it can continue to surge has shifted from “short squeeze” to “whether ETF funds can sustain + whether US Treasury yields will spiral out of control again.”
In the past 24 hours, there have been no new Fed rate decisions, nor any sudden major negative news from US regulators. The market is now mainly digesting several major variables formed in the past few days.In 2025, the market talks a lot about ETFs. I believe the 2026–2027 period could be an even bigger story: Crypto being integrated into the US legal and financial system as an official asset class. Currently, this process is not yet complete. Reuters reports that a comprehensive crypto bill in the US Congress still faces obstacles, causing the SEC and CFTC to implement many changes through regulatory authority. The SEC is considering exemption mechanisms for certain token issuances, while the CFTC is also promoting crypto productsOn August 20, Zilliqa released a full incident review, disclosing a signature flaw in the Zilliqa Ledger application used by the old version, non-EVM network. To clarify the timeline: the review was made public on August 20, but the first confirmed theft occurred on March 4, abnormal activity was detected by KuCoin on July 19, and old chain transactions were disabled on July 20; this was not a new attack that happened on August 20. The issue lies in the handling of the Schnorr signature's random number. When the application generated the random number and copied it into the signature buffer, it retained 8 bytes of zero padding and lost 8 bytes of entropy, causing about 64 bits of private key information to leak with each signature. After collecting multiple publicly available signatures on the chain, attackers can reconstruct the private key on ordinary hardware without needing to access the device, mnemonic phrase, or trick the user. Zilliqa confirmed a minimum loss of 683,130,969.66 ZIL, involving 66 theft transactions; 6,772 accounts are known to be exposed, with 51 emptied. Independent reports from The Block also verified that the affected transactions were native ZIL transactions signed through this application; Zilliqa EVM and software SDK signatures are not within the same scope. This incident offers three reminders for ordinary users. First, hardware wallets isolating private keys do not guarantee absolute security for every on-chain application's signature implementation; random number generation, transaction parsing, and application updates remain attack surfaces. Second, patching the vulnerability can only prevent new keys from producing weak signatures; signatures already recorded on the chain cannot be revoked, so exposed keys must be retired.Weekend consolidation, next week might be the real node for a surge to 80,000
$BTC is still hovering around 77,000, the weekend market is calm, but sideways movement isn’t necessarily bad; it feels more like waiting for a new catalyst.
The core drivers of this rally remain the same: the U.S. Treasury raised the long-term bond repurchase limit from 2 billion to 4 billion, which the market interpreted as "not wanting long-term interest rates to rise further." When long-term bond yields are suppressed, the dollar weakens, and capital flows into BTC.
This week, BTC has gained over 20% cumulatively, once hitting 79,455, a three-month high. Shorts were liquidated for about 2.7 billion dollars, setting a record. More importantly, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling about 1.6 billion dollars, showing institutions are indeed buying, not just shorts covering.
Short-term, 80,000 is indeed a hurdle; from 80,000 to 82,500 is a dense chip area where a large amount of trapped and profit-taking positions need to be digested. The daily RSI is above 78, indicating a clear short-term overbought signal.
Three things to watch next week: NVIDIA earnings on Tuesday, the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech, which could be a key signal for the September rate direction.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC BTC surged to around 78,000 this round. Honestly, it's quite strong, but we need to clear the accounts — not all this money is "new money."
First, looking at real cash: U.S. stock spot ETFs have had net inflows for several consecutive days. On August 21 alone, $307 million flowed in, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $239 million. Institutional buybacks are real. But on the other hand, "short squeeze" contributed most of the firepower in this rally. $3 billion worth of shorts were liquidated in a single day, which is a one-time fuel that will burn out.
For the mid-term, I see it as "strong but unstable." If ETFs can maintain daily inflows of two to three hundred million, the capital flow can hold, and BTC can stabilize above 70,000; but if the Fed stays hawkish and U.S. Treasury yields rise again, those institutional inflows can quickly turn into outflows. There was a precedent of $4.5 billion net outflow in the first half of last year. Plus, August is historically BTC's weakest month. Don't chase in the mid-term; a pullback to 70,000 without breaking it is the real signal that capital can hold.
In short: short-term funds are hot, but mid-term depends on ETFs not breaking flow, otherwise it's just high-level turnover after a short squeeze.
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE Short positions have just been liquidated, and money is quietly moving.
The crypto market appeared calm over the weekend, with $BTC steady around $77,000 without any movement. But if you only focus on mainstream coins, you might have missed an undercurrent—$ZEC surged with volume, $TRUMP skyrocketed in a single day, and the altcoin pot is quietly heating up.
What ignited the market was the dual resonance of macro policies and a short squeeze: U.S. long-term bond repos pushed yields down, Trump called for advancing the "Clear Act," and the SEC plans to exempt some digital assets from registration. These three positive factors combined led to concentrated liquidation of short positions, with over $3.4 billion liquidated across the network in 5 days.
But the short squeeze will eventually end. The real question is: after the shorts are washed out, who will take over?
The good news is that spot buying is entering the market. This week, 13 spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion, and whales increased holdings by about $2.75 billion over 60 days. The market is transitioning from a "shorts stampede" to a "bulls relay."
In sectors, ZEC is catalyzed by the Grayscale ETF but is already overbought; TRUMP is sentiment-driven and may pull back at any time; OKB has a more solid logic and is worth watching if it stabilizes around $115.
This weekend, don’t chase the top gainers. Focus on ETF capital flows and trading volume—the short squeeze comes fast and goes fast. The directions that can survive cycles are always those supported by fundamentals. Don't rush to call it a bull comeback just yet; the most fragile link is actually hidden in the most beautiful rebound candlestick. Have you noticed that the market this week seems like someone hit the fast-forward button? BTC surged over 20% from the bottom in one go, reclaiming 77K, and ETH also charged aggressively toward 2.4K. ETF capital flows have completely reversed, with the two mainstream spot ETFs attracting tens of billions of dollars over the past seven days. The numbers look somewhat dreamlike. But I don't want to sum this up with just the word "rebound." A more accurate description is: the market is repairing but has not yet entered a new trend confirmation zone. - Momentum signal: BTC weekly level closed back above 77K, the first decent weekly close structure in the past three months - Capital signal: ETFs have continuous net inflows, and the inflow speed is accelerating, indicating traditional funds are not buying tentatively but are making planned replenishments - Structural signal: ETH's follow-up strength has finally caught up, no longer a solo performance by BTC But risk signals are equally obvious. - Although the rebound amplitude is large, the sustainability of volume has not been verified; daily volume expansion only appeared for one or two days - The price has returned to a previous dense trading zone, where a large amount of trapped positions have accumulated, so selling pressure is real - The macro environment has not fundamentally changed; this rebound is more a result of oversold conditions + short covering + ETF sentiment resonance My understanding is this: the market is currently trading on the expectation that "the worst moment is over," not the narrative of "a new round of prosperity beginning." Starting from the peak of this cycle, $BTC has undergone about 305 days of correction, with a maximum decline of approximately 35%. Comparing this to historical cycles: 🔻 2017–2018 bear market: maximum drawdown about 84% 🔻 2021–2022 bear market: maximum drawdown about 77% 🔻 This cycle: about 35% What is more noteworthy is that recently, US spot BTC ETF funds have seen a strong inflow again, with institutional buying providing new support for the market. If the capital flow can continue, BTC's cycle structure might differ from previous cycles. ⚠️ However, this does not mean this is the absolute bottom. History does not simply repeat itself; the macro environment, institutional participation, and capital structure vary in each cycle. What really needs to be observed is whether the drawdown will continue to widen and whether spot demand can persist in key support areas. The differences are already very obvious, and the market will tell us whether this is indeed an unusual cycle. $BTC #BTC77KCapitalFlowTest #Gold4600VsBonds #SamsungPeak80B$ETH 📊THE BLOCK｜US BTC+ETH Spot ETFs Record Strongest Weekly Performance Since October 2025
According to THE BLOCK data, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively recorded a net inflow of $2.6 billion last week, marking the strongest weekly capital performance since October 2025.
With a significant price rebound, the combined ETF trading volume tripled directly, reaching $29 billion in weekly turnover, showing a notable surge in institutional trading activity.
Key Market Signals
1. Complete Capital Reversal
Last week completely reversed the previous week's outflows, with institutional allocation funds returning in concentration. Bitcoin ETFs were the main inflow drivers, while Ethereum ETFs also recorded consecutive days of positive inflows. Traditional funds are simultaneously positioning in both BTC and ETH sectors.
2. Price and Capital Resonance
This rally is driven by improved US Treasury repo liquidity and expectations of US crypto policies. Price increases attract ETF subscriptions, and continuous ETF net inflows in turn provide spot buying support, forming a short-term positive feedback loop. The surge in trading volume indicates a rapid warming of traditional financial markets' attention to crypto assets.
3. Risks to Consider Rationally
⚠️ Large weekly inflows are a strong signal, but a single week's surge does not mean it will continue indefinitely.
Early in this rally, a large number of short positions were closed, causing a short squeeze effect, but this squeeze bonus is gradually fading. The future market depends heavily on whether ETFs can convert large inflows into sustained normalcy. If inflows quickly decline and profit-taking occurs at high levels, the market could easily face a sharp pullback.
Capital is beginning to diverge, with some incremental funds flowing out from BTC, raising the ETH-BTC exchange rate. The foundational conditions for altcoin rotation are slowly being built by capital.
Risk Warning: Information is for market reference only and does not constitute investment advice
#ETF #BTC #ETH #InstitutionalFunds
$BTC $ETHThe market is focused on $BTC's rapid rebound, but what I really want to know is: who is buying during this rally? Is it new spot capital continuously entering, or a "short squeeze" formed after a large number of shorts were forcibly liquidated? Both scenarios look like an uptrend, but their implications are completely different. 📊 Recently, US spot BTC ETF funds have strengthened again, with a net inflow of about $1.47B over the past week, indicating institutional demand is warming up. However, the real test is still ahead—after the short liquidation wave ends, can spot buying continue to take over? If BTC still sees sustained buying after a pullback and ETF funds maintain net inflows, then this rally might be shifting from a short-term squeeze to a healthier trend. But if buying quickly disappears after leverage liquidations end and volume cools down simultaneously, this rally might just be a brief squeeze. 🎯 What I’m more focused on now isn’t how much BTC has risen, but who is still willing to keep buying after the rise. $BTC #BTC77KFlowTest #Gold4600VsBonds #SamsungPayoutUpTo80B Will the Federal Reserve really cut interest rates in September for $BTC?
Recently, many in the crypto space have been betting on the expectation of a Fed rate cut.
Many assume that a rate cut will happen in September, pushing crypto prices higher.
But looking at the recent macro data, I'm not so optimistic.
There are now two completely different voices in the market.
Some institutions are betting on a rate cut starting in September to inject liquidity into risk assets.
Others believe there will be no rate cut this year at all, and there might even be another rate hike.
Rate cuts are not just about the Fed wanting to cut; they depend on two key measures: inflation and employment.
Inflation is stumbling down but still far from the 2% target, and geopolitical conflicts could push oil prices up again, driving inflation back up.
Employment data is volatile, sometimes cooling off, sometimes very resilient, causing great dilemmas for the Fed's decisions.
Having traded for so long, I've seen many times when the market fully priced in a rate cut prematurely, only for the expectation to be dashed, which then crashes the market.
If there is no rate cut in September, the market that rose on positive expectations will likely face a correction.
Two scenarios:
✅ If inflation clearly falls and employment weakens continuously, there will be confidence for a rate cut in September, which would be positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.
❌ If inflation rebounds and the economy holds up, rates will likely remain unchanged or even lean hawkish, putting pressure on the market.
Don't bet all the market's rise on a rate cut.
Expectations are expectations; actual outcomes are actual outcomes, and the damage from unmet expectations can be severe. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 One thing rarely gets the attention it deserves: The debt problem keeps getting pushed down the road. Cutting spending is unpopular. Raising taxes is unpopular. So politically, kicking the can is often easier than making painful fiscal decisions. That’s where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold become interesting. You don’t have to agree with the politics to understand the demand: When trust in fiscal discipline weakens, people look for assets that can’t simply be printed into existence. That naThe core conclusion of today's market is: risk appetite remains differentiated, pressure in traditional markets has not been fully relieved, but the crypto market continues to maintain a clear relative strength. On Friday, the US stock market rebounded after continuous adjustments, but still closed lower for the week. Long-term US Treasury yields and oil prices near $95 remain the core variables suppressing valuations. Over the weekend, there was a marginal easing signal in the geopolitical situation—Iran allowed some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but overall navigation is still far below pre-war levels. BTC is currently oscillating near a high of about $77,500. During the traditional market's holiday closure, it remains the most direct window to observe global risk appetite. 1. What happened overnight? 1. US stocks rebounded on Friday but did not reverse the week's weak trend. Facts: On Friday, the three major US stock indices all rose: Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.98%, closing at 53,277.01; S&P 500 rose 0.43%, closing at 7,674.37; Nasdaq Composite rose 0.44%, closing at 26,180.46. But for the whole week: S&P 500 fell 1.43%; Nasdaq fell 2.05%; Dow fell 0.85%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq ended their previous three consecutive weeks of gains. Market reaction: Market sentiment on Friday was clearly more stable than in previous trading days, with materials, healthcare, and financial sectors leading the gains, and crypto-related stocks especially strong. Robinhood rose 13.7%, Coinbase rose 8.2%, Strategy rose 6%. Behind the logic9月8日，加美"一美元对一美元"开火：Crypto圈的真正风暴不在盘面，在流动性 8月22日，加拿大总理卡尼宣布，因美国对价值200亿美元的加拿大商品征收50%关税，加方将于9月8日起对美国钢铁、乳制品、家电、农业设备、纸浆造纸、电子产品等发起等额报复性关税，加美贸易谈判就此破裂。 【老手的碎碎念】 别只盯着盘面那点波动。9月8日这道线画下去，真正被改写的是全球美元的"出口"。 高关税一上来，美国进口成本被人为抬高，进口总量被压下去——以往美国靠买全世界的货把美元撒向全球的路径，被自己亲手掐了一截。全球能拿到的美元少了，美元流动性供给被动收紧。这事听起来离BTC很远，其实最近。 BTC早就不单是"数字黄金"了。2025年那波冲到11.2万美元，靠的是ETF、财库配置、英伟达+AI叙事的外溢，它已经变成高贝塔的流动性资产——全球风险偏好一收，它先跪；美债实际利率一上，它先抖。 现在加美互砍50%，欧盟、墨西哥、中国那边会怎么想？谈判桌上的筹码逻辑一旦从"互利"切到"对等报复"，关税楔子就钉进来了。徐奇渊那篇讲得透：关税推升美国通胀预期，美债长端利率下行受阻，全球无风险利率降不下来，风险溢The market may be pricing in ZEC becoming the institutional privacy play. Grayscale is pushing toward an NYSE-listed ZEC ETF, while adoption is expanding through payment integrations and shielded transactions. But here’s the catch: • ETF isn’t live yet • No confirmed major inflows • Network fees remain tiny vs. the valuation • ZEC is already around $14B market cap Price is running ahead of fundamentals. I’m not chasing this candle. I want to see the ETF launch, real inflows, and a healthy pullbaBTC is currently at 77,100 (after a weekly rise of over 23%, it failed to break 79.5k and then pulled back), ETH is at 2420 (weaker than BTC, 2500 not broken). Daily RSI is 82–85, 4H RSI is 93, indicating overbought across all timeframes; Bollinger Bands are widening and moving along the upper band, MACD is bullish but 1H momentum is weakening.
Capital flow: BTC ETF weekly net inflow is about 1.92 billion, with a single day peak of 608 million, led by IBIT; fees have turned positive but spot trading volume has shrunk, indicating a "short squeeze + ETF support" rather than new explosive volume.
Macro: 10Y US Treasury yield at 4.7%, with Nvidia earnings on the 26th and Jackson Hole on the 28th setting the tone for continued risk-on sentiment.
SNDK/Hynix line: 54 trillion KRW dumped at Yongin Y2 + Cheongju M17, HBM4 is already in mass production, 2026 capacity sold out, LTA price lock hedges the cycle, waiting for Vera Rubin orders to be fulfilled.
Conclusion: High-level turnover is not a bottom; if 76.5k (BTC)/2400 (ETH) hold, the range will continue, watch for false breakouts; 80k requires volume expansion + ETF continued inflow confirmation, avoid chasing highs during thin weekend liquidity. $BTC dropped 38% from the cycle peak after 320 days.
Compared to the previous cycle, this decline is still relatively mild.
2017-18 reached -83%.
2021-22 reached -76%.
Not saying this is the bottom. But the difference is hard to ignore.
$BTC Don't call it "bottom fishing" now—BTC at 77,000 and ETH at 2,420 represent a high-level pullback after failing to break 80,000, not a bottom. The daily RSI at 82–93 is severely overbought, with a 23% rise over 5 days mainly driven by a short squeeze; short-term holders have turned profitable and selling pressure is gradually increasing.
ETF inflow hit 600 million in a single day (led by IBIT), prices have risen above the 200-day moving average, and fees are neutral. The mid-term structure remains intact, but thin weekend liquidity combined with unanimous bullish sentiment makes it easiest to get stopped out by a spike.
If you really want to enter: wait for BTC to stabilize around the 76,000–76,500 and ETH around the 2,350–2,400 watershed levels before scaling in, with stop losses at 74,500/2,300; chasing now means taking over last week's profit-taking positions. Brothers, today I’m putting BTC and ETH together — these two are currently following a "big brother leading the little brother" script.
Just checked OKX data, $BTC is now at $77,402, $ETH at $2,428. Over the past week, BTC has risen over 20%, once touching a three-month high of $79,455; ETH also followed suit, breaking through $2,400 and holding a key weekly level.
🚀 What happened? "Currency devaluation trades" ignite the dual-core rally
This surge is driven by two forces simultaneously.
First, US Treasury repos acted as the fuse. The US Treasury announced increasing the long-term bond repo size from $2 billion each time to "no less than $4 billion," which the market interpreted as the government actively easing long-end yield pressure. The dollar weakened, gold surged, and Bitcoin, as the core asset of "currency devaluation trades," took off directly. Bridgewater Fund founder Ray Dalio publicly recommended allocating gold and Bitcoin, further strengthening the narrative.
Second, shorts were liquidated in a chain reaction, amplifying the rally. On August 19, about $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, the highest on record according to CoinGlass, with BTC shorts alone liquidated over $1 billion within an hour. The buying from short covering combined with genuine buying pushed prices above $79,000.
On the capital side, this week the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.9178 billion, and the Ethereum spot ETF net inflow was $692.6 million, both marking five consecutive days of net inflows. Real spot demand is taking over from short squeezes, which is the essential difference from previous "fake pump" rebounds.
📊 Market status: healthy correction after rapid rise
BTC: Around $77,400, slightly retreating from the $79,455 high. Analysts say this is a "sideways consolidation" after a sharp rise; daily charts enter a correction phase but the mid-term trend remains intact. $80,000 is a psychological battleground; if volume breaks through, the $82,500-$85,000 range opens; if resisted, $75,000-$76,000 is the first support zone.
ETH: Around $2,428, adjusting in sync with BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio strengthening indicates capital flowing from BTC overflow to ETH. $2,300-$2,350 is the key support zone below; holding it means the rebound continues; above, $2,450-$2,500 is short-term resistance.
Risk signal: A mysterious large whale sold 7,700 BTC in the past 3 days, worth about $576.6 million, indicating some big money is offloading at highs. If the SEC’s proposed new crypto asset financing regulations pass, it could benefit mainstream public chain tokens like ETH and SOL.
💰 My view: The trend is there, but watch for pullbacks
This rally has macro catalysts, short covering, and real ETF buying — a triple drive much more reliable than pure leverage-driven moves. But a rapid rise from $63,000 to $79,000, over 25%, carries significant risk chasing highs.
My strategy:
· For those with positions: Hold steady, but consider taking partial profits near $80,000
· For those wanting in: Wait for a pullback to $75,000-$76,000 (BTC) or around $2,350 (ETH) to confirm support before entering
· Focus: Next week’s Jackson Hole central bank meeting; Fed chair’s remarks will be the real "catalyst"
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· BTC long: Enter on pullback to $75,000-$76,000 with stop loss at $74,000, target $80,000-$82,500
· ETH long: Enter on pullback near $2,350 with stop loss at $2,300, target $2,500-$2,550
· Shorts: Light positions can be tried if rebound near $80,000 (BTC) or $2,500 (ETH) shows weakness, with tight stop loss
· Leverage: Within 3x, as rapid rallies have high volatility
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ With the tariff gate opened on September 8, will BTC jump off the US stock market like a jump, or will it take the opportunity to surge another 80,000 yuan? On August 22, Canadian Prime Minister Carney confirmed that due to the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, Canada would begin a $1 dollar retaliatory tariff on U.S. steel, dairy products, home appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics starting September 8, causing the U.S.-Canada trade negotiations to break down. [Veteran's Rambling] Canada's small scale and $20 billion in tariffs on goods are hardly a huge wave in the global trade market. But it can't be overlooked, it's a fuse. If US-Canada talks have broken down, will Mexico follow suit? Is the EU's package of countermeasures also going to be accelerated? The 50% tariff invoked by Trump invoking Section 338 was supposed to take effect on August 19, but after a three-day delay, it remains unresolved—this kind of "last-minute repetition" is the most deadly. What the market hates is not bad news, but endless suspense. Back to our market surface. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury raised the long-term bond repo cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The yield on 30-year Treasuries fell back from their highest level since 2007. With liquidity expectations easing, BTC immediately withdrew from the $64,000 area and rose above $78,000 in three days, with a weekly increase of 22%. Short positions were liquidated $1.27 billion, with nearly 200,000 liquidations worldwide, totaling $3.343 billion. The Panic and Greed Index surged to 62, entering the "greed" zone, marking the most exuberant activity since October 2025. The lively atmosphere is truly lively. But I'm the one who's got it, broBTC suddenly dropped, and altcoins almost instantly crashed, which actually reveals the truth about this altcoin rally: many gains are not from a spot bull market, but from leverage plus thin liquidity.
$BTC is the risk anchor of Crypto. Once it plunges sharply, contract liquidations, quantitative risk reduction, and market makers withdrawing bids happen simultaneously, causing the order books of small coins to instantly become empty.
So next time, don't just look at who falls the hardest; I actually watch who recovers first.
$BTC falls → altcoins crash → open interest gets wiped out → top 50 holders hold firm → price recovers first.
These coins are the most worth studying.
Because truly strong altcoins are not those that rise the most when $BTC goes up, but those whose market makers still refuse to sell chips when BTC is deleveraging.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Don't shout bull. Bull your mother. Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 77,000, and Ethereum jumped directly from 1900 to over 2500. In one day, 2.6 billion short positions were liquidated, with 1 billion liquidated in just one hour. The crypto community started banging drums again, making it seem like the halving day. Wake up. This is not a bull market; it's shorts stacking leverage mountains in a bear market, and the Treasury just flicked a cigarette casually. Who lit the fire? Not Satoshi, not Vitalik, but US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Long-term bond yields soared to a 20-year high, and all the money went into government bonds to earn interest, making the crypto space like a morgue. On August 19, she said: 10-year, 20-year, 30-year bond repos, increasing from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, starting September 9. The next day she added: 4 billion is the floor. Translated into plain language: government bonds are no longer that attractive, and liquidity is starting to leak out. Bitcoin reacts hard to liquidity—it’s a conditioned reflex, not a faith awakening. Anyone talking to you about halving or institutional entry narratives at this time is either stupid or trying to make you take the bag. The White House did give some face. Trump called in Coinbase and Robinhood, urging to push the "Clear Act" through Congress. What do institutions fear most? Not a drop, but compliance people blocking subscriptions. Once the pass is open, ETFs come alive. That week, 1.1 billion was absorbed, Ethereum alone 220 million in a single day, a ten-month high. BlackRock's IBIT took on 80% of it. The play is just these three lines: Treasury loosens the floodgates, lights the fire. The White House gives the green light, opens the door. Shorts pile their own explosives and blow themselves up. Once the price breaks, shorts liquidate, forced buys happen, then break again, liquidate again. The gears are locked tight. You see a$BTC $ETH Let's summarize the underlying logic behind the weekend rally leading up to Monday's opening: --- 1. Weekend gains are often due to "thin liquidity"—traditional financial institutions (US stocks, spot ETFs, CME) are all closed during the weekend, and exchange depth and order volume are far lower than on weekdays. - In this "thin liquidity" environment, even a slight buying order or triggering a small wave of liquidation can quickly amplify and rally the price. In other words, the current surge is not necessarily due to institutions buying heavily; it is very likely that the market is too lightly pushed up by sentiment or contract trading. --- 2. Monday faces 'CME gap gap' filling pressure - CME Bitcoin futures halted after Friday's close. If spot prices surges over the weekend, a huge upward gap (CME Gap) will form at the opening on Monday morning. - From a historical pattern, the crypto community is very likely to pull back to fill this gap in the short term, meaning Monday's opening will first buy a dip to cover the gap, then look at the real direction. --- 3. "Expected Front-Running" vs. "Monday's Actual Buying" – Many people (including retail and speculators) thought this way over the weekend: "With prices rising this much over the weekend, there will definitely be institutional buying at the US stock market opening on Monday, so I need to jump in early." - This leads to expectations being overloaded before Monday's open. Once US stocks open Monday night and ETF net inflows aren't as strong as expected, the short-term big players who rushed over the weekend are likely to dump their chips directlyBoth BTC and ETH are already showing a Strong signal of a potential high even on the daily TF. Out of curiosity, we checked when such marks appeared on our indicator for #BTC last time. July 14, 2025, when the daily candle high was at $123,218. After that, for the next few months, the price ranged and rewrote the ATH twice, but only slightly. August 14 at $124,474 and October 6 at $126,199. And then - a bear market. #ETH shows a similar picture - the mark was on August 12, 2025, after which the new high and ATH was $4,956 on August 24. And thenSupply Changes in the Next 30 Days
ASTER｜8/25 Biweekly Burn Execution (Triggered Tomorrow)
The current plan is to burn about 2.8 million ASTER every two weeks. On August 25, it is necessary to verify the transactions at the burn address and whether the total supply has actually decreased; if not executed, the credibility of the buyback and burn mechanism announced on June 17 will need to be downgraded. Starting September 17, the team's holding of 400 million tokens will begin monthly releases for the first time, about 10 million per month, and it is also necessary to observe whether these enter the market.
HYPE｜9/1–9/6 Core Contributor Unlock (Conflicting Data)
Different sources report inconsistent release amounts for HYPE: CoinLaunch states 6.43 million tokens will be released on September 1, crypto.news estimates about 9.9 million per month based on continuous release speed, while another view holds that tokens are released continuously daily without a concentrated single-day release. From September 1, the actual on-chain received amount and how much enters exchanges should be directly observed.
UNI｜8 Chain Fee Expansion Proposal Voting Window (Expected Late August to Early September)
The community will first conduct a 5-day vote, then submit for on-chain confirmation; after passing, it will take about 2 more days to take effect. At that time, fees from 8 Layer 2 networks and more Ethereum transaction pools may be used to automatically buy and burn UNI. The actual daily burn amount will be key data to judge whether this mechanism is effective.Actual changes: 8/22 Flash Report (citing Farside monitoring scope) reports BTC spot ETF single-day net inflow of $307.5 million, continuous for 5 trading days; ETH spot ETF net inflow of $184 million, continuous for 7 trading days; no significant outflows within the window. Compared to the conflicting data direction from 8/20–21 recorded in the 8/22 scan, the capital flow direction shows consistent signals for the first time, directly touching the demand dimension of the core hypothesis of BTC/ETH "institutional spot absorption." Supporting evidence: Weekly background still supportive — this week's digital asset ETP inflow of $2.2 billion is the largest of the year (CoinShares 8/20), macro drivers (US Treasury repo expansion, weakening dollar) continue but no new events within 24h. If continuous inflows receive SoSoValue dual-caliber confirmation, the biggest uncertainty in the 8/22 scan "new price highs but questionable capital flow" will be partially resolved. Strongest counter-argument: The flash report is from a single source, Farside/MarsBit; data dates and statistical timing have not yet been reconciled with SoSoValue, and yesterday's conflict has not been officially closed; a single-day inflow of $300 million is still small relative to the $78,000 price level and derivatives market scale (short squeeze, over $1.5 billion liquidations across the network), so the market may still be driven by derivatives rather than institutional spot.Cross-chain security incidents, potential compensation selling pressures, and heavy regulatory pressure from multiple parties resonated together, causing market speculative liquidity to shrink, large funds to accelerate withdrawal from high-risk agreements, and to fully hedge against mainnet blue-chip and defensive assets.
1. Smart money flows and macroeconomic trends
The macro and industry dynamics over the past 12 hours clearly show the characteristics of "risk aversion and liquidity defense" from the perspective of SMC (Smart Money Concepts).
1. Sandbox cross-chain bridge vulnerability pause (Base & BNB Chain): This event directly damaged local on-chain credit systems. In terms of liquidity distribution, buy-side liquidity (BSL) in DeFi and Web3 sectors has been hit, prompting SmartMoney to shift funds away from high-risk cross-chain protocols and settle them in mainnet blue chips.
2. BitMart may partially restart and creditor compensation: This potential liquidation behavior means some locked and lost tokens will be released in the market in the future. In the medium to long term, this passive liquidity release is likely to translate into substantial selling pressure within specific price ranges (Premium premium zones).
3. RWA and Prediction Market Regulatory Pressure (Fairmint Warning vs. Kalshi Lawsuit): This dimension has greatly suppressed expectations of cross-sector liquidity between TradFi and Crypto. U.S. regulators have blocked prediction markets in various states, causing speculative liquidity in the derivatives marketWintermute is sitting on roughly $160M in on-chain exposure, with around $146M in shorts and only ~$13.85M on the other side. That looks aggressively bearish at first glance. But there’s a catch 👀 Market makers don’t trade like retail. They can build positions on-chain while hedging exposure elsewhere, especially on CEXs. Funding can also become a source of yield while the larger book is being managed. So don’t see a huge short wallet and instantly think: “Smart money is dumping. I should shortThreshold custody enters online payments
Last week we looked at key generation; today we examine protocol boundaries. New IACR papers embed threshold signatures into Lightning: one side operates as a threshold group, while the counterparty still sees standard MuSig2 participants. Another work addresses two-round signatures under adaptive corruption, and a third studies MPC fallback beyond design assumptions.
The common issue is not "the fewer signing rounds the better," but rather: who can participate, when signing is allowed, whether the message has been altered, and whether to halt on failure. For agentic wallets and x402, first define permissions, limits, manual confirmations, and stop conditions before discussing transaction volume.
Sources: IACR ePrint 2026/1757, 2026/1762, 2026/1768. Disclosure: Compiled by the CoWallet team; we develop MPC wallets for threshold ECDSA and hold positions on self-custody and key security topics.
#AI #Web3 #MPC #Lightning #ThresholdSignatures