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ETH short ambush
Entry: 2530-2540
Take profit: 2509 2487 2460
Add position: 2556
Stop loss: 2570
Personal advice, set take profit and stop loss properly, take profits when floating gains are sufficient. Secure your profits
Market is volatile, manage your position well. Enter in small batches with light positions, absolutely no all-in 🈲❌, set take profit and stop loss properly
Copy trading is voluntary I am Cige. The world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by nearly 10 tons in a single day, raising its position to 1056.62 tons. The Dutch central bank transferred about 86 tons of gold reserves from New York and Ottawa to London to enhance tradability and liquidity in crisis scenarios. Goldman Sachs research points out that the hedging behavior of gold options market makers may amplify buying during price rises and exacerbate drawdowns during declines.
Gold ETF funds continue to flow back, central banks are adjusting reserve allocations, and institutions are treating gold as a base position. The 90-day correlation between gold and BTC has risen to the highest level since 2020, with BTC shifting from a risk asset to a hedge against currency depreciation. When the world's largest gold ETF increases holdings by nearly 10 tons in a single day and the Dutch central bank proactively adjusts its gold reserve allocation, the allocation logic for non-sovereign assets is being recognized by more and more institutions.
For BTC, the continuous inflow into gold ETFs validates the systemic increase in non-sovereign asset allocation. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking; savor it. $BTC $ETH $XAUT Middle East conflict escalates again, will oil prices continue to rise?
The recent round of conflict in the Middle East has clearly escalated over the past two days. Iran, in retaliation for a new round of U.S. airstrikes (reported to have caused 11 deaths, including 5 civilians in one residential area, among them a child, and 63 injuries), launched counterattacks on U.S. military-related facilities in multiple countries: ballistic missiles were fired at Jordan (13 missiles entered Jordanian airspace, 10 were intercepted), drone attacks were carried out in Bahrain, there are reports of attacks in Kuwait, and missiles and drones were launched at U.S. military facilities in Iraq's Kurdistan region and the UAE, while claiming to have shot down 50 drones. Two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have already been hit by shrapnel or sea mines, confirming that shipping risks are real.
Due to the conflict, the Iranian rial exchange rate has fallen below 2.2 million to 1 USD, hitting a historic low.
Will oil prices continue to rise? Currently, Brent crude is around $95, at a five-week high. The U.S. Energy Secretary also claimed that on Monday, the volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz set a single-day record since the start of the war, about 17 million barrels. This can be interpreted as "the strait is not significantly affected," but it is more likely that ships rushed shipments before the situation worsened, which actually confirms the market's concerns about "disruptions," rather than indicating the route is safe.
Whether oil prices will continue to surge depends on two key factors:
Whether the conflict escalates from mutual attacks on facilities to a true blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz;
Whether both the U.S. and Iran send signals of de-escalation.
Before clarity emerges, it is highly likely that prices will remain volatile at a high level ⚡$BTC crossed 80,000 last night, but the real ignition wasn't from the crypto circle, it was a single statement from Waller!
BTC rallied from around 77,000 all the way above 81,000, completing a strong rebound within a few hours.
Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool down, he leans towards keeping interest rates unchanged in September. Market expectations for a rate hike in September have clearly cooled, US Treasury yields have fallen, and risk assets have collectively loosened.
So I prefer to understand this wave as:
Waller is responsible for ignition, and short sellers covering positions are fueling the fire.
It's not that some new BTC fundamentals suddenly appeared.
Now, although 80,000 has been retaken, the area around 82.8K remains a very critical resistance zone. Only by breaking through and holding above it can we talk about more room to grow; if the rally fails, we must guard against falling back into the 77,000–80,000 range.
More importantly, there is the non-farm payroll report tonight.
If employment data is hot, rate hike expectations may resurface; if it continues to cool, it will support the current risk appetite.
So now I only focus on one sentence:
The water temperature has indeed warmed, but the tide has not truly changed.
Hold above 80,000 before getting bullish, break 82.8K before discussing the trend.
Don't finish writing the script just because of one big bullish candle.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ One BTC now can buys about 18.1 oz of gold, the highest ratio since January.
The more interesting part is how they got there together.
On Bitwise's 90-day measure, BTC's correlation with gold rose above 0.5, its highest since 2020, after sitting near zero earlier this year. The latest convergence coincided with stress in the bond market: long-end Treasury yields surged, Treasury expanded liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated debt, BTC rose 22.4% over the following week, gold added about 5%, and stocks fell.
The ratio move is not only Bitcoin's doing. Gold is roughly 20% below its late-January high, while the BTC/gold ratio fell to around 12-13 in February after trading above 30 in 2025.
By one 90-day realized-volatility measure:
· BTC: 36.2%
· Gold: 25.3%
· BTC is now 1.43x as volatile as gold, down from 5.6x in 2021 and near a six-year low
Bitwise says BTC has recently behaved like an amplified version of gold. Glassnode is more cautious, noting that BTC's decoupling from equities during past bond selloffs was often short-lived.
Flows and sentiment remain split:
· August brought about $3.5B into US spot BTC ETFs, narrowing 2026 YTD outflows from $5.29B to $1.77B
· Five choppy sessions through Sep 2 netted only about $122M, before Sep 3 added $730.8M
· With US federal debt above $40T, Scaramucci has framed both assets as responses to fiscal and currency concerns
· Jiang Zhuoer has said publicly he closed his BTC position near $82,050
In 2020 and 2022, BTC's larger advances followed correlation spikes rather than coinciding neatly with them. But two episodes are too few to treat as a reliable signal.
Do you look at BTC in dollars, or in ounces of gold? Does the second measure change how the chart reads to you?
#BTCGoldRatioHigh HTX DeepThink：BTC闯入8.1万-8.6万美元密集供给区，突破有效性待现货需求验证 HTX Research研究员Chloe分析指出，市场已从熊市结构转向趋势确认阶段，但BTC进入8.1万-8.6万美元密集供给区，9月前三个交易日美国现货BTC ETF净流出约4600万美元，与8月连续八日超28亿美元流入形成明显反差，当前行情更接近一次价格突破尝试，而非已确认的新一轮牛市。 宏观层面，关注点正从通胀转向就业：若就业持续走弱、核心通胀继续改善，美联储将获得从暂停加息转向降息的空间，这可能成为四季度风险资产最大的潜在流动性催化剂。结构层面，此前6万-8万美元的上涨伴随约30亿美元空头清算，随后未平仓合约下降约11%、资金费率保持中性，说明杠杆结构并不拥挤，但也意味着逼空动能大部分已被消耗，后续上涨必须由真实现货需求而非逼空完成。资金层面，尽管BTC重新站上8.1万美元，9月前三个交易日美国现货BTC ETF仍小幅净流出约4600万美元，与8月突破阶段连续八日超过28亿美元的流入形成明显反差。情景推演方面：基准情景（约50%）是BTC在7.8万-8.6万美元之间高波动整理，只有🚨 $ARB revenue is heating up — but don’t confuse ecosystem revenue with token value.
Robinhood Chain’s on-chain volume has surged, and suddenly the ARB revenue narrative is everywhere.
On the surface, it looks extremely bullish.
More activity on Robinhood Chain means more attention flowing toward the Arbitrum ecosystem, and that creates a much bigger question for $ARB :
Is Arbitrum actually building a business model that can generate value from other chains?
#DailyOrbit The Monetary Authority of Singapore Proposes Stablecoin Issuers to Hold 100% Reserves
The latest proposal from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sets two strict rules for stablecoins: first, issuers must hold at least 100% reserve assets, which must be kept in separate accounts and cannot be mixed with the issuer's own funds; second, it explicitly prohibits paying interest or any benefits linked to holding stablecoins to holders.
MAS's reasoning is straightforward: stablecoins should not be treated by the public as investment products or interest-bearing tools; they should be more like bank demand deposits—a means of payment, not a financial product.
This direction aligns with the US GENIUS Act and the EU's MiCA: major global regulators are forming a consensus on stablecoins—they can be compliant and serve as payment infrastructure, but cannot become disguised interest-bearing deposit products. This is why countries are simultaneously tightening regulations on whether stablecoins can bear interest.
The consultation period ends on October 16. Additionally, MAS mentioned it will grant "limited recognition" to a few foreign stablecoins, but the specific implementation is not yet decided—if overseas issuers like Circle and Tether can enter the Singapore market through this channel, it could change the local stablecoin landscape.#FOMC Last Set of Data Before: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
The market is pricing in a split scenario—employment data is cooling off, but inflation numbers are still rising. ADP gave an early signal: private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January, with manufacturing cutting 17,000 jobs in one go. The Beige Book also reported that 10 out of 12 districts recorded only moderate growth, and employment slowdown is now a consensus. On the other hand, July's core PCE year-over-year stubbornly held at 3.3%, still far from the 2% target. CME data shows a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September; the market clearly hasn't been thrown off by the employment data rhythm. $ETH
The distribution of nonfarm payroll expectations tells a lot—Reuters expects 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC expect 80,000. The wider the expectation gap, the more volatile the actual release will be. Bank of America even said nonfarm payrolls are just the "appetizer," with CPI being the "main course" deciding whether to hike rates in September. $SOL
If nonfarm payrolls come in below 58,000, rate hike expectations will cool off short-term, giving BTC a chance to rebound and test 78,000 or even 80,000. If nonfarm payrolls exceed 80,000, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, and BTC will likely face pressure to pull back to 75,000 or even the downside risk zone around 72,000. Don't bet on the data; wait for the release before making moves. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. $BTC
#FOMC Last Set of Data Before: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls Largest inflow day of the year, behind January's $840m inflow.
Went back to check: the last time $BTC ETFs saw such an inflow spike, the boomers ended up buying the local high.
Not saying that's what's happening here, but historically, high inflows haven't been the best sign. #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC 🔥【Tonight 20:30, Nonfarm Payrolls Big Test!】
The US August Nonfarm Payrolls will be released tonight.
Market expectations:
📌 Nonfarm additions: +56,000
📌 Unemployment rate: 4.1%
📌 Hourly wage month-over-month: +0.3%
📌 Hourly wage year-over-year: +3.0%
But I tend to believe the actual data will be weaker.
Why?
ADP added only 38,000 in August, hitting a yearly low;
The ISM Services Employment Index remains in contraction territory;
Recent employment-related indicators overall are signaling a cooling trend.
So my forecast:
👉 Nonfarm: +30,000 to +60,000
👉 Unemployment rate: 4.1% to 4.2%
👉 Hourly wage year-over-year: around 3.0%
What really matters is not "whether there are new jobs added," but:
Will the employment data further reinforce the cooling trend in the US labor market?
If tonight:
🟥 Nonfarm < 30,000 + Unemployment rate ≥ 4.2%
→ Rate hike expectations cool down
→ USD/US Treasury yields under pressure
→ Gold and BTC lean bullish
🟨 Nonfarm 30,000 to 70,000
→ Basically aligns with "weak employment" logic
→ Market may first fluctuate, then trade next week's CPI
→ Risk assets slightly bullish to neutral
🟩 Nonfarm > 100,000
→ Clearly exceeds expectations
→ Rate hike expectations reheat
→ USD and US Treasury yields rise, BTC/Gold face short-term pressure
⚠️ But there is a key point:
This Nonfarm may not ultimately decide the Fed's September policy.
Because the market is really focused on next week's CPI.
So if tonight's Nonfarm is only "slightly below expectations," BTC may not take off directly;
What could truly change September policy expectations is the employment + CPI combination.
My final judgment:
The probability of a weaker Nonfarm tonight > stronger.
First target: around 50,000.
Unemployment rate may rise to 4.2%.
Tonight at 20:30, the market will see the truth.
#FederalReserve #Nonfarm #BTC #Bitcoin #Gold #USStock #RateCut $CL US Retail Diesel Prices Hit Record High: A Perfect Storm Created by Refining Capacity Shrinkage, Demand Resilience, and Regulatory Costs
According to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), US retail diesel prices have quietly risen to an all-time high. The impact of this data far exceeds ordinary gasoline price fluctuations because diesel is the "lifeblood" of truck transportation, agricultural machinery, industrial equipment, and the construction industry. Its price increase quickly transmits through logistics costs to the entire economic system. This time, the rise in diesel prices is not caused by a single factor but is the inevitable result of the combined pressures of supply, demand, and policy.
1. Refining Capacity Shrinkage: The Consequence of Years of Underinvestment
The fundamental driver of rising diesel prices is the continuous decline in the structural supply capacity of the US refining system. Over the past five years, the US has shut down several old refining facilities, partly due to the demand collapse at the beginning of the pandemic and partly due to companies proactively reducing fossil fuel investments amid energy transition expectations. Data shows that the number of operable refineries in the US is at a historic low, and refinery capacity utilization rates have been running high for a long time, meaning the system has almost no redundancy to cope with sudden demand growth or supply disruptions.
More critically, some refineries on the US East and West Coasts heavily rely on imported crude oil and refining feedstocks, while the global diesel market supply is also tight. Europe's sanctions on Russian refined oil have reshaped global diesel trade flows. US refineries must meet domestic demand while filling the supply gap in the European market. Under this dual pressure, domestic diesel supply is even more strained.
2. Demand Resilience: The Economy Has Not Receded, but Costs Are Accumulating
Contrary to the market's widespread expectation of a recession, the US economy shows considerable resilience in consumption and industrial sectors. Truck transportation demand remains stable, agriculture is entering harvest season, and although construction and manufacturing activities have slowed, they have not collapsed. Diesel, as an essential energy source for production and logistics, has very inelastic demand—no matter how high the price, trucks need fuel, and agricultural machinery needs to operate.
This combination of "inelastic demand + inelastic supply" is a classic structure for any commodity price surge. When supply cannot quickly increase and demand is unwilling to compromise, prices can only rise to suppress marginal demand. The problem is that diesel, as a fundamental energy source for the economy, has very limited room for demand-side "concessions," which further amplifies the upward price movement.
3. Regulatory Costs: The Invisible Driver of Low-Carbon Policies
Recent US low-carbon fuel standards (such as California's LCFS and the federal RFS) have also indirectly pushed up retail diesel prices. These policies require fuel suppliers to blend biodiesel into diesel or purchase compliance credits, and biodiesel production costs are higher than traditional diesel. As compliance requirements tighten, refineries and distributors pass incremental costs to end consumers, giving retail diesel prices additional upward momentum.
Moreover, environmental requirements for low-sulfur diesel have forced some small and medium refineries to invest heavily in equipment upgrades, while some refineries choose to exit rather than upgrade, exacerbating regional supply tightness. While policies promote clean fuels, they also reshape the market's cost curve, and consumers are paying the bill for this transition.
4. Inventory and Price Spreads: Market Structure Sends Warning Signals
US distillate fuel (including diesel) inventories have long been below the five-year average, with the East Coast—most reliant on imports and cross-region transfers—particularly tight. Persistently low inventories make the market extremely sensitive to any supply disruptions; hurricanes, refinery maintenance, and pipeline interruptions can all trigger price spikes.
At the same time, diesel's month-to-month price spread maintains a spot premium structure, indicating current market supply tightness rather than surplus. Under spot premiums, holding physical inventory is profitable, but no one is willing to actively sell inventory, further intensifying the supply shortage.
5. Who Bears the Cost?
The impact of rising diesel prices goes far beyond gas stations. From farmers harvesting crops to truck drivers on long hauls, from manufacturers receiving raw materials to construction sites operating equipment, diesel costs permeate every corner of production and daily life. For ordinary households, delivery fees for e-commerce packages, food prices on supermarket shelves, and heating costs may continue to rise driven by high diesel prices. This "diesel storm" will ultimately be paid for by every consumer.
Diesel's New High Is No Accident
The rise of diesel prices to record highs is not an isolated event but the result of multiple structural contradictions acting together: shrinking US refining capacity, resilient demand, rising environmental regulatory costs, and persistently low inventories. If these deep-rooted causes are not alleviated, the new highs in diesel prices may only be the prelude to broader cost pressures. For the market, this data is not only an alarm for the energy market but also a significant reminder of overall inflation and economic resilience: the cost of energy transition is being priced in a very concrete way by reality. BTC at $81,000, do you dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: bulls and bears are fiercely battling at 81,000.
On September 3rd, it violently surged from 77,000 to above 82,000. Today it opened high then pulled back, with an intraday low of 80,500, currently digesting gains in the 80,500-81,400 range. Over $160 million liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts dominating.
The daily chart shows a volume breakout above the 80,000 psychological level and the 50-week moving average, but today formed an upper shadow—a typical "breakout followed by pullback confirmation" pattern.
First point: Waller’s statement triggered the market, but the reaction may be overdone.
Fed Governor Waller indicated a preference to keep rates unchanged in September, cutting rate hike expectations from over 60% to about 50%, a "coin toss" scenario. ETF net inflows hit $731 million in one day, with BlackRock alone buying $454 million—marking the highest single-day inflow since January this year.
Retail investors see $700 million inflow and short squeezes, thinking "the bull market is back."
The real direction will be decided by today’s nonfarm payrolls, not Waller’s statement yesterday.
If nonfarm is weak again, rate hike expectations cool further, risk assets take off; if stronger than expected with sticky wages, yields and the dollar rebound, BTC will drop directly back to 77,500. Chasing before data is like gambling.
Second point: On-chain data tells you—there’s a "wall" above and a "floor" below.
Currently about 68% of supply is in profit, what does this mean?
Long-term holders (LTH) have a cost concentration zone between 83,000-86,000—about 1.05 million BTC stuck in this range. This is the real main trapped supply, a selling pressure wall of "sell once break-even."
Below, short-term holders’ cost/active investors’ average cost is around 76,350-77,000, a support zone repeatedly tested and bought recently.
Third point: September is seasonally weak, don’t let one bullish candle change your belief.
Historical data: BTC’s average return in September is negative. For many years, September mostly weak.
Today’s nonfarm is the biggest variable: market expects about 55,000 new jobs, unemployment steady at 4.1%. If data is weak → rate cut expectations rise → bullish; if strong → rate hike expectations rebound → bearish.
Upcoming are September 11 CPI and September 16 FOMC. Oil prices rose above $91 due to US-Iran tensions, adding inflationary pressure.
Bulls and bears face off, you decide.
On one side:
ETF single-day net inflow $731 million, a yearly high
Waller’s dovish stance cools rate hike expectations
Volume breakout above 80,000 + 50-week MA, technicals turning bullish
$160 million short squeeze, short squeeze momentum remains
On the other side:
83,000-86,000 has 1.05 million BTC trapped wall
September seasonally weak, nonfarm and CPI data windows
The rally has "short squeeze" elements, not driven by real buying
If data is hawkish, direct drop to 77,000+
Resistance above: 81,500-82,500 (multiple failures to hold) → 83,000-86,000 (LTH dense trapped zone) → 88,000-90,000
Support below: 80,500 (today’s low) → 79,500-80,000 → 76,300-77,000 (iron bottom, break means structural weakness → look at 72,000-75,000)
Trading strategy
If nonfarm is weak (bullish):
Light long on pullback to 79,800-80,500, stop loss 77,600 (break structure), targets 82,500-83,000 → 85,000-86,000.
If nonfarm is stronger than expected (bearish):
Break below 80,500 with volume, wait or light short, targets 78,000-77,000.
Reduce positions: sell in batches at 83,000-86,000, don’t fantasize about a straight run to 100,000.
Long term, if macro turns dovish and ETF inflows continue, there’s still room for 90,000+ by year-end, but first pass the 80,000-86,000 hurdle in the next 1-2 weeks.
BTC is consolidating at 81,000, 99% of people are hesitating "to chase or not"—
But think: what were you doing at 77,000? Waiting for 60,000. What about at 82,000? Waiting for a pullback.
And then? Bought nothing.
The market always rewards those who dare to bet at key levels and punishes the hesitant.
Today’s nonfarm, what will you choose?
Is your BTC position empty, half, or full?
After data release, which side will you bet on?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $ZEC After breaking through $1,000, I feel it's necessary to seriously talk about this coin again. Many people see ZEC rise from a few dozen dollars all the way to 1,000, and their first reaction is: It's already gone so far, isn't it too expensive now? But I actually think one of the most important reasons the market chose ZEC for speculation is precisely because its potential is large enough. Stocks that are truly prone to super rallies in bull markets usually share one thing: a large enough narrative, scarce chips, and a large price potential in the market. ZEC meets all three conditions. Let's start with Zcash itself. Zcash is not a new project that suddenly emerged in this bull market; it was launched back in 2016, and its underlying currency model is very similar to BTC. The total supply cap is also 21 million coins, it uses PoW mining and also has a halving mechanism. Currently, the circulating supply is about 16.8 million coins, meaning over 80% of the final supply has entered the market. But its biggest difference from BTC is privacy. BTC solves the problem of decentralized assets, but BTC's ledger is actually fully public. Addresses, fund flows, and balance changes can all be tracked long-term by on-chain analytics firms. Zcash aims to solve another problem: If all assets are on-chain in the future, will humans be willing to make all their financial activities permanently public? ZEC implements Shielded Transactions through zero-knowledge proofs, which can verify transaction validity without revealing the sender or receiverThe second take-profit for the long position was hit, $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 On June 15, 1215, on the meadow of Runnymede by the River Thames in England, a group of fully armed barons held swords to King John's neck. They forced John to sign a document—the Magna Carta. This contract, written in Latin on parchment, expressed a simple principle: power cannot arbitrarily seize the property of the people. 811 years later, on September 4, 2026, Bitcoin broke through $82,000. Central bank governors, finance ministers, and Wall Street tycoons around the world are anxiously watching this price. Not because it rose—but because behind it, a quiet revolution is happening. Governments worldwide are shifting from "cracking down on Bitcoin" to "buying up Bitcoin." The essence of this is exactly the same as what happened on the meadow of Runnymede 800 years ago: the oldest principle of power restraint in human history is being re-enforced by code. What exactly did the Magna Carta restrain? Many think the Magna Carta is about "freedom" and "human rights." It is not. The core clause of the Magna Carta is Article 39—"No free man shall be arrested, imprisoned, dispossessed, outlawed, or exiled except by the lawful judgment of his peers or by the law of the land." Translated into today's terms: power cannot arbitrarily steal your money. This is not a noble moral declaration but the result of a ruthless power struggle. King John lost the war, was deeply in debt, and began arbitrarily raising taxes and confiscating noble estates. The nobles had enough and united to force the king's hand. TheA surge does not equate to a signal to enter the market.
Rapid market rallies can easily trigger FOMO emotions.
The more frenzied the moment, the more crucial trading discipline becomes.
I maintain my established portfolio allocation and do not let short-term market movements disrupt my rhythm.
Core holdings: $BTC, $ETH, serving as the portfolio's ballast.
Growth targets: $SOL, $XRP, aiming to capture sector elasticity.
High-risk speculative altcoins: $USELESS, $LAB, $BEAT, and other high-leverage small positions for speculative opportunities.
I do not chase every bullish candle, nor do I attempt to catch every short-term fluctuation.
The trading goal is very clear.
Prioritize risk management, protect principal, and maintain sufficient liquidity.
Wait for opportunities with a more favorable risk-reward ratio before taking action.
Currently, short-term indicators are severely overbought, and a short squeeze rally could stall at any time.
Even if optimistic about the future market, there is no need to enter at the peak of emotions.
Better to miss part of the market than to blindly buy at high-risk levels.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 VOLUME IS THE REAL CONFIRMATION.
$BTC and $ETH can rally on sentiment, but volume reveals whether buyers are truly backing the move.
Price rising with strong volume = conviction.
Price rising with weak volume = caution.
Price shows direction. Volume shows strength.Today's wealth code
$ZEC is currently the healthiest structured trend target
Strongest but overheated
$DASH / $LIT and others belong to mid-short term strong trends
$TRIA/ $ZEST / $TAC have already shown divergence between gains and short-term trends, caution is needed for a high-level pullbackFrom 66% to 48%, a drop of 18 percentage points in three days, BTC directly surged to 82,000
Just checked the market, BTC hit a high of 82,285, up 5% in 24 hours. It was still hovering around 77,000 yesterday, and today it directly jumped to 82,000. It all relied on one person changing the tone.
On September 1, CME showed a 66% probability of a rate hike in September. On September 4, the same tool showed 48%. In three days, it dropped 18 percentage points.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller said on the 3rd: if inflation data continues to cool in the next two weeks, he tends to keep rates unchanged in September. He even quoted John Lennon's famous saying—"Give inflation a chance to slow down."
A week ago, Walsh was hawkish at Jackson Hole. A week later, Waller said "don’t rush." The market voted with real money—rate hike expectations fell, US Treasury yields declined, the dollar weakened, and BTC surged to 82,000.
The BTC-to-gold ratio rose to 18.17, a new high since January; one BTC can be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold. Both are being bought as assets to hedge against dollar credit risk.
But don’t celebrate too early. Waller left a backdoor: if August inflation data improvement is only temporary, he will shift to support rate hikes. The real judgment day is the August CPI before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC and $ETH can rally on sentiment, but volume is what tells me whether the move has real participation behind it#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Today it seems like everyone is selling, even Multicoin is offloading.
Since the end of July, they have gradually sold $112 million worth of HYPE, bought at a cost price of 32.32, and sold at an average price of about 64, with a return rate of 134%, making over 64 million in profit.
The most recent was just 3 hours ago, when they deposited 150,000 coins to Coinbase, valued at 12.78 million.
At the beginning of the year, they acquired 4.95 million coins from Galaxy Digital, holding them for over half a year, but Galaxy should still have quite a lot, as they are one of the largest holders.
In any case, when big players collectively sell, you have to pay attention!
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Today (September 4) at 20:30, the U.S. will release three key August data points: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wages, which will directly impact the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision in September and represent the biggest recent market variable.
The previous nonfarm payrolls figure was -23,000, with July unexpectedly turning negative, raising market concerns about cooling employment; this time the forecast is a rebound to 56,000. The previous unemployment rate was 4.10%, expected to remain steady at 4.1%, one of the Fed's most closely watched indicators. The previous average hourly wage annual rate was 3.20%, expected to fall back to 3%, with wage slowdown usually seen as a signal of easing inflation pressure.
These three data points essentially serve as a concentrated vote on "whether the Fed can cut rates": if nonfarm payrolls are weak, unemployment rises, and wages slow, it will strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting gold and weighing on the dollar; if the data fully recovers, it may suppress rate cut expectations, driving a rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Focus closely on whether nonfarm payrolls turn positive, whether the unemployment rate breaks 4.1%, and whether the wage annual rate falls below 3%.$BTC: The decisive battle at 82.3k, waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls announcement
The market is very typical: the 4-hour/daily charts still show a bullish structure, with volume breakout in August followed by an upward move along the moving average; but the 1-hour chart shows momentum cooling after a high at 82,280, with 5-minute chart consolidating at a high level. Now is not the time to chase longs, but the point to "de-leverage before the data."
From a macro perspective, tonight at 20:30 we watch the Nonfarm Payrolls, not the interest rate decision; the September FOMC is at midnight on 9/17. The market currently prices about a 50-60% chance of a 25bp hike in September. The 25bp itself is small, but the repricing is significant. Strong Nonfarm + hot wages → hiking expectations rise, dollar/real rates suppress risk, BTC first looks to support at 80.5k and 79.5k; weak Nonfarm or downward revision → rebound, but volume must increase and hold above 82.3k to open the way to 85k+, otherwise it remains a high-level consolidation below 82k.
Strategy: Do not predict direction, wait for the first spike/pullback confirmation after 20:30; longs defend at 80.5-79.5, reduce positions if it breaks below 79.2; consider adding on a breakout above 82.3k. Altcoins with high beta are more fragile, reduce positions by half. $ETH $SOL follow BTC's movement.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 🔎 $BTC | LIQUIDITY TEST
BTC pushed into the $82K area before pulling back, showing sellers are still defending that zone. $BTC
Key map:
* 🔴 $82K–$82.8K → major resistance
* 🟢 $80K → immediate support
* ⚠️ $75.7K → deeper structure support
Hold $80K and bulls can keep pressing higher. Lose it, and liquidity below becomes the next target.
The breakout is close — but confirmation matters. 🔥$BTC
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $BTC rose 6000 points
Both bulls and bears are uneasy
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the main event
Announced at 20:30 Beijing time
Market expects an increase of 55,000-58,000 jobs
Unemployment rate expected at 4.1%
But Wall Street is highly divided
Forecast range spans from -25,000 to +125,000
A difference of 150,000 jobs
Last month's non-farm was -23,000
ADP was only 38,000
If there's another cold surprise tonight
The market will explode
Three scenarios
Data between 50,000-60,000: meets expectations, but BTC has already risen 5% in advance, likely a case of good news priced in with a pullback, fluctuating between 78k-81k
Data far below expectations (below 30,000): unexpectedly bullish, probability of a September rate hike may fall below 50%, BTC could surge to 82-83k or even higher, but if the shortfall triggers recession fears, it might first crash then V-shaped recovery
Data exceeds expectations (above 80,000): biggest risk, too large a contrast, September rate hike expectations will quickly soar, BTC could drop directly from above 80k to 76k or even 73.5k
BTC/Gold ratio rises to a new high since January
One BTC can now be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold
Their 90-day correlation also rose to the highest since 2020
Indicating concerns over debt expansion and declining monetary purchasing power are simultaneously affecting both asset classes
My short position
The market has already priced in "very poor non-farm data"
If data meets expectations
It means good news is fully priced in
The probability of a downward move is greater
Holding for now
To be honest
Non-farm payrolls are just an "appetizer"
The real key is the CPI on September 11
Waller has already said
Inflation is the primary focus
Unless employment data drops sharply unexpectedly
It’s hard to change the direction of a September rate hike
Light position play tonight
$BTC $XAU
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ 🚨 Bitcoin is back… but $82.8K is where the real fight begins. 👀🔥
BTC has bounced nearly 30% in recent weeks, reclaiming the 21, 55, 100, and 200-day moving averages.
Sounds bullish, right? Maybe. But now comes the part that matters most: Can Bitcoin hold the recovery, or is another rejection waiting around the corner? 👀
Here’s what I’m watching:
🔹 Above $75.7K → Bulls keep the recovery structure intact
🔹 Break above $82.8K → Momentum could seriously accelerate 🚀
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ZEC
 Tonight's non-farm payroll data will very likely determine whether $BTC can truly hold above the 80,000 level this round, or if it's just another misleading false breakout.
The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added in the US in August, compared to -23,000 in July, indicating a slight recovery in employment. BTC is stuck around 81,000 now; last night's rebound was mainly driven by Federal Reserve officials signaling dovish tones, US Treasury yields falling, and easing rate hike expectations.
If the employment data is significantly hotter than expected, US Treasury yields will rise again, rate hike expectations will return, and the 80,000 level will face pressure once more.
If the data is mild and weakens, yields continue to fall, then BTC has a chance to turn the 80,000 resistance into solid support.
But worse employment data isn't necessarily better. If the employment data collapses too severely, the market will start worrying about a recession, and crypto as a risk asset won't hold up.
The ideal scenario for Bitcoin: employment cools down gradually, but the economy doesn't collapse directly.
Tonight at 20:30 is the moment to witness the miracle.The short-term core resistance zone is between 81200 and 81800. If volume increases and the price stabilizes above this range, the rebound space will continue to open up, further testing around 83000; if multiple attempts to break higher fail, short-term profit-taking will concentrate, and the market is likely to surge and then pull back. The first support level below is between 79000 and 79500; if the price holds here on a pullback, the short-term rebound structure remains intact. The 77800 to 78200 range is a strong defense line for this rebound; once effectively broken, this rebound will be declared over, and the market will turn weak again, likely testing support near 76000.
This recent rise is a corrective rebound brought by the easing of interest rate hike expectations, not the start of a new bull market. The current price is at a high level, so blindly chasing the rise is not advisable. Operationally, focus on observing the gains and losses around the 81800 resistance and 79000 support levels. Avoid heavy positions and speculative bets prematurely; wait for the release of the evening's non-farm payroll data before capturing clear trading signals. Bitcoin being favored by too many people means there is no opportunity left
This is a wrong and dangerous viewpoint
I occasionally hear this statement and feel it’s necessary to correct it
Bitcoin has been favored by many since the day it appeared, rising from less than 1 dollar to 120,000 dollars
The S&P 500 has been favored for decades, yet its annualized returns still outperform those elite haloed hedge funds
Let's look at another group of favorites
In March 2024, ETH surged to 4000 dollars, everyone was optimistic, swapping Bitcoin for Ethereum, rushing for the final climax
Because in past bull markets, Ethereum was absolutely the star, so it’s not unreasonable to expect this bull market to reach 8000
But 4000 was the peak, it didn’t even surpass the previous high
This is the key difference: just saying you’re optimistic has no value, only being positioned optimistically carries risk
For example, most people who are optimistic about Bitcoin currently don’t actually hold Bitcoin
Those optimistic about altcoins have really bought a lot of altcoins
Especially near the end of a bull market, favored altcoins actually struggle to rise because too many people bought in, the vehicle is too heavy, prices can’t be pulled up
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is pulled up very easily
The reason this viewpoint is harmful is that once you believe it, you end up buying those unpopular junk coins and ignoring BitcoinU.S. stocks have become fuel for Meme 🔥
Robinhood chain has rewritten the playbook: meme coins directly pool with NVDA and HIMS, and when retail investors buy, the U.S. stock tokens get locked into the LP. 17.2% of supply is locked, weekend market closure cuts supply, and HIMS premium once surged to 112%.
This is not just another meme coin rally; it's the first time U.S. stock tokenization is treated as liquidity infrastructure. LP yields and on-chain arbitrage are two tracks that will attract U.S. stock funds into altcoins.
Just a reminder: costs must be low or aesthetics on point; either believe it first or don't, but don't FOMO to the mountaintop.9.4 Friday BTC Market In-Depth Analysis
Driven by ADP employment data falling short of expectations and a rebound in risk appetite in the US stock market, Bitcoin has experienced a rally, with its price surpassing the 80,000 mark. The market saw short covering, with a large number of short positions being liquidated, leading to a short-term warming of bullish sentiment. However, the overall market remains fully focused on the non-farm payroll data released in the evening, which is the key watershed determining the short-term market direction.
ADP is only a preliminary reference for non-farm payrolls and has not fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve's policy expectations. If the evening's non-farm employment data weakens, the market will further lower its rate hike expectations, improving liquidity expectations, which is favorable for Bitcoin to continue its rebound; if the non-farm data significantly exceeds expectations, it indicates the US economy remains robust, rate hike expectations will rise again, and risk assets will collectively come under pressure, making this round of rebound prone to resistance and decline. Before the non-farm data is released, funds will tend to be cautious, market volatility will intensify, and frequent flash spikes and stop-loss hunting will occur.From the current market expectations, the non-farm payroll data should be good, with no rise in the unemployment rate, and last month's non-farm employment, which turned negative, is now expected to be positive this month. Although the annual wage growth rate has declined, the monthly rate is rising, which also indicates that the US economy is still doing well.
However, at times like this, good data may not necessarily be a good thing, because the market hopes to suppress the Fed's rate hike expectations. Good non-farm data indicates a strong US economy, meaning the Fed can continue to hold its ground. Although I think there won't be a rate hike in September, good non-farm data could increase the probability of a rate hike, and I wonder if the market will feel uneasy again.
Last month's non-farm data was a bittersweet event; this month's non-farm data might be the opposite. Since last month's employment was poor, the market lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike, but if this month's data is good, it might revert back.
Of course, market expectations may not be accurate. Overall, if the non-farm data is good, it might negatively affect market sentiment, but if the non-farm data is bad, it could actually be beneficial for the market. The data itself is strong, but that's the problem. Risk assets don't need a strong economy right now, but lower rate hike expectations. The stronger the employment data, the less need the Fed needs to pivot, and it could even reignite rate hike concerns. The logic has already reversed: poor data means the market may rise because rate hike expectations have dropped. Good data may actually lower because rate hike expectations have returned. Last month, employment worsened, the market interpreted it as bullish. If it strengthens again tonight, the logic must be reversed. The key is not whether the nonfarm payrolls are good or not, but whether the market prices it as economic resilience or rate hike risk. If the data is clearly better than expected, it is bearish in the short term. If the data weakens again, it may actually lower the probability of a rate hike. #Waller: August inflation determines whether to raise rates in September #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位, can the strength continue? #OKX预言家: September FOMC rate decision forecast is now online. $BTC $ETH BTC made a move
Entered at 2505.6, took profit and exited at 2525, securing 19 points
Strictly follow stop-loss execution; pocketing profits is the real gain
#HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls data could decide whether $BTC truly holds above $80,000—or whether this is just another brutal bull trap.
The market expects around 56,000 new jobs for August, compared with -23,000 in July. A modest recovery is already priced into expectations.
Right now, BTC is hovering around $81,000. Last night's rally was fueled by dovish Fed signals, falling Treasury yields, and cooling expectations for further rate hikes.
So tonight, the scenarios are relatively clear: Market background: Last night (September 3, US Eastern Time), the US stock market recorded its largest gain in nearly a month — Dow +1.18%, Nasdaq +1.40%, S&P +1.06%. The core catalyst was Waller's dovish stance and the sharp drop in the probability of a September rate hike. Pre-market futures tonight: Nasdaq futures +0.48%, Dow futures slightly down.
Pre-market gainers (sorted by current gains)
$PL (Planet Labs) +9.3%: Q2 revenue of $116.1 million exceeded market expectations; reports also indicate the company is considering expanding into data center monitoring business
BOSS Zhipin +4%: driven by broad pre-market gains in Chinese concept stocks
CHPT (ChargePoint) +2%: continued momentum after yesterday's surge of 74.95% (charging station leader's earnings beat expectations, record gross margin, narrowed losses)
$SNDK (SanDisk) +2%+: storage chip sector collectively strengthening
STX (Seagate) +2%+: storage chip sector collectively strengthening
$MRVL (Marvell) +2%+: semiconductor sector broadly rising
NTES (NetEase) +2%: broad gains in Chinese concept stocks plus strong gains in Hong Kong tech stocks today
MU (Micron) +1%+: storage price hike expectations
$AMD +1%+: semiconductor sector broadly rising
INTC (Intel) +1%+: semiconductor sector broadly rising
(Also: besides BOSS, Baidu, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Li Auto all up 1-2%; Nvidia +0.8%)
Pre-market losersSOL is up 4% today, trading at $103.7 — the gain lags behind BTC, but the on-chain activity is more significant than the price.
① Fighting for payment territory: Solana accounts for 90% of on-chain payment transactions on the x402 chain, leaving Base far behind; the battle for on-chain settlement is going well;
② The meme printing machine hasn't stopped: the on-chain meme coin USELESS surged 60% in one day, with its market cap briefly surpassing $200 million, retail investor enthusiasm is still burning;
③ Institutional channels were set up in August: Morgan Stanley's SOL spot ETF got approved, with about 5% staking yield — but that's background, not today's catalyst; today purely follows BTC's macro tailwind.
The price is still consolidating (65% below the all-time high of $294), but on-chain share and institutional products are quietly accumulating — a typical case of "on-chain leads, price lags." Coinpedia calls for $150, that's a +45% story; let's stabilize at $110 first.
The meme hype is just cash flow, payment share is the real moat.
#SOL #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #沃勒：August inflation decides whether to raise interest rates in September
Bitcoin and Ethereum surged to previous highs, what exactly is being traded? How to manage positions before the weekend?
Brothers, these past two days BTC and Ethereum have been lively again, Bitcoin directly pushed back above 81,000, and Ethereum also surged near 2,500. The core driving force is Waller's dovish remarks, which cut the September rate hike expectations from nearly 70% down to 50%. The market is now trading on the logic of "cooling rate hike expectations + weakening dollar," with funds flowing back into risk assets.
But has the sentiment fully fermented? The fear and greed index has already reached 73, which is in the "greed" zone. Also, there is a signal to watch — altcoin ETFs have seen their first net outflow in nearly two weeks, and inflows into BTC have started to become intermittent, no longer the mindless buy-buy-buy rhythm. This indicates a weakening willingness to chase highs and a lot of short-term profit-taking.
Tonight the non-farm payroll data will be released, then it's the weekend. The weekend is notoriously low liquidity, with thin buying and volatility easily amplified. My approach is: no adding positions before the non-farm data lands; if the data meets expectations or is even weak, the market might surge again, but near the close I will actively reduce long positions, especially leveraged ones. I don't bet on weekend news, waiting for next week's CPI to find certainty opportunities $BTC 417 million $ETH dumped, but the price didn't crash?
On-chain analyst Yujin monitored that an institution transferred 172,546 ETH to a CEX over 4 days, about 417 million. The last 29,000 ETH (72.06 million USD) was transferred in just 9 hours ago, basically clearing out their position.
However, this institution sold at an average price of 2420-2430, and ETH not only didn't crash but surged to around 2530, rising over 5% in 24 hours.
Jinxi's view: The selling pressure was absorbed by the market. On one hand, Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, lowering the rate hike probability from 66% to 50%, causing funds to flow back into risk assets; on the other hand, Ethereum ETFs have had net inflows for 12 consecutive days, with BlackRock alone adding 72 million in one day. Institutions sell, ETFs buy, it's just a turnover of chips.
Market impact: In the short term, 2510-2530 is a resistance zone, and chasing longs at this level is not cost-effective.
What should retail investors do: Don't FOMO chase the rally, wait for a pullback near 2480 to look for opportunities. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $ETH Ethereum continued its rebound momentum today (September 4), trading at $2519.50 at the time of writing, with a daily increase of about 4.81%; Binance platform quoted $2527.63, up 5.58%. Previously on September 2, ETH once dropped to around $2374, then quickly recovered over the next two trading days.
The core driver of this rebound is the dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations. Fed Governor Waller stated that as long as inflation continues to decline, he supports pausing rate hikes in September, with the probability of a September rate hike dropping sharply from 63% to 50%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell accordingly, and expectations of looser liquidity directly ignited the crypto market rebound. In the past 24 hours, about $464 million worth of leveraged contracts were liquidated across the network, with short positions accounting for as much as 88%, and short squeezes further accelerating the price rise.
From a technical perspective, ETH has formed a rectangular consolidation pattern between $2420 and $2567, with short-term resistance near $2550-$2566. The daily RSI is about 61.4, in a neutral to slightly strong zone. It has risen about 3.08% over the past 7 days and 34.65% over the past month, but is still down about 15.27% year-to-date.
On the capital side, potential selling pressure needs attention: institutions transferred 142,800 ETH (about $345 million) to centralized exchanges within 4 days, while on the same day, ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $48.2 million, and BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $101 million, indicating a divergence of institutional funds between the two major crypto assets.Brothers, at this position right now, you can't blindly chase gains or panic sell. Tonight, the real direction will still be decided by the non-farm payrolls.
$ETH is currently around 2514, previously pulled from 2388 to 2530, the 15-minute moving averages are starting to converge, indicating a high-level consolidation. Holding 2500 is relatively strong; only a volume breakout between 2530–2550 has a chance to push to 2600; breaking below 2480 targets 2460, and losing 2440 clearly turns bearish.
$BTC is also relatively strong, with 80,000 being the key dividing line. Staying above 80,000 still has the potential to push to 81,000–82,000; falling below 78,000 indicates weakening recovery, and losing 76,000 means turning bearish again.
Tonight the focus remains on non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wages. ADP was only 38,000, initial claims 206,000, plus the previous value of -23,000, employment is indeed cooling down. I tend to think this non-farm payroll won't be particularly strong.
But the weak non-farm expectation has already been partially priced in; even if it meets expectations, the positive effect might already be realized. So tonight, don't just look at the non-farm numbers; unemployment rate and wages are the most likely factors to suddenly cause BTC and ETH to reverse.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Top 5 stocks users watched most this week: Strategy increased its holdings by 4,603 BTC after two months, with crypto concept stocks and AI hardware chains strengthening. The five stocks most watched by users this week were MSTR, CRCL, DELL, AMC, and FAMI, covering BTC treasury, stablecoins, AI servers, and cinema sectors. Strategy increased its holdings by 4,603 BTC for about $369.7 million after two months, with MSR and CRCL both rising over 8% during the week; Dell surged about 13.24% during the week, driven by strong AI server orders; AMC and FAMI lagged behind. This week, capital preference showed a clear dual-theme structure: crypto treasury and AI hardware were favored, while sectors lacking catalysts were marginalized. MSTR rose about 8.94% during the week. Strategy disclosed this week that it bought 4,603 BTC for about $369.7 million, marking its first increase in two months. Previously, Bitcoin rebounded as expectations for Fed rate cuts heated, and Strategy's resumption of holdings was seen by the market as a signal of institutional buying returning. MSTR, as a leveraged agent for Bitcoin, regained capital pursuit. CRCL rose about 8.04% during the week. Fed officials reiterated the regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins, with rising policy expectations driving a collective rebound in crypto concept stocks. Coupled with continued growth in USDC supply, Circle's fundamentals and policy sides alignedThe market sentiment in the early morning feels like a gentle warm breeze passing by. Bitcoin's rebound is not accidental; behind it lies a subtle resonance between macro expectations and capital flows. Federal Reserve Governor Waller's remarks have added room for imagination about a pause in rate hikes in September, provided inflation continues to cool down; this expectation directly suppresses the dollar's movement, and a weak dollar often serves as fertile ground for risk assets to stretch their muscles 🌿. On the capital side, there is no lag either—Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $101 million in a single day, indicating that professional funds are tentatively returning, and market sentiment is shifting from defense to active observation.
However, the foundation of this mild rally is not very solid. The real direction will be set by upcoming U.S. employment data and the September FOMC meeting. If employment numbers overheat or the inflation decline process is hindered, the previously accumulated optimism may quickly evaporate, and the speed of market reversal usually leaves little time to react ⚠️. Currently, this wave of the market is more about pricing in expectations in advance rather than settled facts. Patience and letting the data speak might be more worthwhile than chasing short-term fluctuations. $BTC
Risk warning: There is uncertainty in macro data and policy paths; the market may turn quickly, so please manage your positions rationally.As the quote says, after Waller's speech yesterday, next week's CPI data is the key factor in deciding whether the FOMC will raise rates on 9/16, but tonight's major nonfarm payroll data cannot be overlooked either, as the anxious market continues to seek confirmation through macro data.
Currently, the market's expected unemployment rate is 4.1%, and the expected nonfarm payroll increase is 56,000.
If the final announced figure shows a significantly higher increase in employment than expected and a lower unemployment rate than expected, the probability of a rate hike will likely rebound to around 70%.
If the increase in employment is slightly higher than expected and the unemployment rate meets expectations, the probability of a rate hike may slightly rebound to 60%.
If the increase in employment is lower than expected and the unemployment rate is higher than expected, the probability of a rate hike will further decline.
If the nonfarm payrolls continue the previous trend of significant downward revisions, gold and U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, but U.S. stocks and BTC may initially rise and then fall, pricing in recession risks.
Assuming Waller is actually cooperating in managing expectations, a reasonable sequence might be:
Waller first raises the rate hike probability to 60%–70%
↓
Waller then lowers it back to about 50% before the blackout period to eliminate one-sided crowding
↓
Strong nonfarm payroll performance restores the probability to about 60%
↓
Hotter PPI and CPI push the probability to 75%–90%
↓
A 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, which does not constitute a true surprise attack
So whether this Fed performance is scripted or not depends on tonight's major nonfarm payroll data. After the data is released, closely watch the changes in CME rate hike probability.#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
The crude oil situation is getting more and more complicated.
In Saudi Arabia, August exports dropped to the lowest since 2017, with prices raised for the US and lowered for Europe in September. The Red Sea route is being targeted by Houthi forces, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still bombing refineries. But the Strait of Hormuz suddenly reopened; Goldman Sachs said 15 million barrels of crude successfully passed through, with another 5 million barrels on "dark ships" sneaking by. The result is oil prices surging and then falling back, with Brent hovering around $90.
The impact on the crypto world boils down to three words— inflation expectations.
Saudi exports can't pick up, so oil prices can't be suppressed. If oil prices can't be suppressed, inflation expectations won't come down. If inflation expectations don't come down, the Federal Reserve won't dare to shift to easing. Without Fed easing, BTC struggles to break out independently.
Currently, the news of Hormuz reopening has temporarily curbed the upward momentum of oil prices, but this is a short-term fluctuation driven by news. The real pricing power of oil lies in the actual recovery of Saudi exports and the Red Sea route, not Goldman Sachs' estimated data.
What do you think?
$BTC #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线
September FOMC Final Simulation: Why a Hawkish Pause Is the Fed's Optimal Solution
Only ten days remain until the September 15 Federal Reserve decision.
Combining Waller's latest statements with employment data, the Fed's most likely trump card in September is neither aggressive rate hikes nor the policy shift many fantasize about, but a highly deterrent "hawkish pause."
Temporarily freezing rates at the current level can avoid an overly aggressive tightening at critical nonfarm payroll and inflation junctures that could trigger a liquidity crash, while also giving the Fed a buffer period to observe the economy in Q4.
But do not simply equate a pause with a bullish market.
Powell is well aware of the power of managing expectations. Once the September rate hike pause button is pressed, it will inevitably be followed by extremely stern press conference statements and a steeper dot plot. The Fed will repeatedly signal to the market that high rates will be maintained longer and will completely shatter expectations of rate cuts within the year. As long as initial jobless claims remain low, they hold the initiative to hike rates again at any time.
The more covert damage comes from liquidity withdrawal. As long as the balance sheet reduction continues and real rates remain high, even if the benchmark rate stays unchanged, off-exchange inflows into the crypto market will struggle to sustain. Historical experience shows that during hawkish pauses, bulls are often most prone to complacency, and chasing rallies often leads to deep losses from a second round of valuation adjustments.$SNDK Yesterday, US stocks were in the red, with all major broad-based indices rising across the board, and many tech stocks seeing a single day with a bullish candlestick of over ten points. However, storage leader SNDK has shown an independent trend, trading sideways and failing to keep pace with this rebound. Many people now have a question: Is this current sideways movement a form of momentum before a rally, or a sign that funds are quietly leaving and a major drop is ahead? Let's first clarify the overall market environment. On September 3, U.S. stocks saw a comprehensive recovery, with the Dow Jones closing up 1.18%, the S&P 500 up 1.06%, and the Nasdaq surging 1.4%. With dovish officials' remarks, US Treasury yields fell simultaneously, temporarily easing market concerns about Fed rate hikes. Logically, a falling interest rate environment is a real positive for AI, semiconductors, and storage sectors, so SNDK should have taken advantage of the boom to start a rebound. However, reality is quite the opposite: SNDK's latest closing price hovered around $1,553, and despite sector dividends, it remains sideways. Looking back at the stock's past performance, it has seen a phenomenal mega rally over the past year, with its stock price rising dozens of times. After a long rally, the market's expectations for NAND flash price increases and explosive demand for AI data center storage have basically been fully reflected in the current stock price, making early realization of positive factors inevitable. Of course, its fundamentals remain solid. AI large models continue to expand, and data centers are crucial for SSWhy is Bitcoin rising?
The reasons are not due to events that happened today:
1. The price has been consolidating around 77,000 for the past six days. Today alone, it jumped to 81,000. This leap is the release of accumulated expectations.
2. Since August 17, about $3 billion has flowed into ETFs. There have been nine consecutive trading days of buying.
3. In the last week of August, there was $1.92 billion in a single week. This was the strongest week of 2026.
4. The real key is September 15. The Senate will vote on the cryptocurrency regulatory bill that day.
5. The market has already priced in this date. Buying before the bill passes, planning to sell after it passes.
6. The White House meeting clearly supports the bill, indicating that the U.S. will not give up its leadership in cryptocurrency.
7. The U.S. dollar is weakening. When the dollar falls, funds flow into risk assets; this pattern has never changed for decades.
8. The funding rate is around 0.007%. This is very low and has only one meaning: this rise is not driven by leverage but by real buying.
9. Ethereum rose 4.7%, Solana rose 5.9%. Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, indicating rising risk appetite.
10. The fear index is 65. It is in the greed zone but not extreme.
Now, the truly critical point.
Most of these points are unrelated to today. This is the inflow of funds that started in mid-August and a vote twelve days later. The excitement is real, but the underlying structure is more fragile than expected. When one person's position is heavier than the overall sentiment of the entire sector, what exactly is the market trading? Yesterday, there was just one candlestick short of a liquidation; today, they added a $5.7 million HYPE long position, entering at 82.93 yuan. This kind of operation, to put it nicely, is faith; to put it bluntly, it's testing the depth of liquidity with all its might. His ETH long positions have already piled up to $99 million, with an average price of 2,427, and BTC is also holding back $31.55 million, at an average price of 77,446. The total position easily broke through $130 million. I stared at this number for a long time, feeling a bit cold inside. On the surface, this looks like the confidence of big players buying at the bottom, but from another angle, it actually shows that the funds currently daring to heavily hold positions are all the kind of people licking the edge of the blade. True allocation funds are unlikely to enter under such volatility. So the key issue isn't whether they can make money, but that their $130 million long position is itself a pillar of market sentiment. If they can hold on, the market will see the bottom nearby. If they loosen up a little, the chain reaction on the derivatives side will teach everyone how to live. One detail I pay special attention to: his average ETH position price was 2427, and yesterday ETH was just a few dozen dollars off, almost wiping out his tens of millions of dollars in trades. This shows his liquidation price isn't far from the current price, meaning the market actually knows where the trigger point is. In this situation, any negative news may not be a gradual decline