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The market is already pricing in the expectation that tonight's non-farm payrolls will show positive data.
Wednesday's ADP employment report was slightly below expectations, causing short-term US Treasury yields to fall from their highs.
Last night, Fed's Waller's speech also confirmed a 50-50 chance of a rate hike.
Waiting for the non-farm payrolls and next week's CPI to confirm, the market is betting that there will definitely be no rate hike in September.
Therefore, the market is clearly trading ahead; both BTC and gold rose more than 2% after Waller's dovish tilt.
However, service sector inflation and oil prices remain high. Even if the non-farm payrolls are weak,
can we really confirm a pause in rate hikes directly? The real deciding factors are still next week's CPI and PPI.
Weak ADP and expectations of a pause in rate hikes have already pushed BTC and gold up in advance.
If tonight's data only meets expectations, might the market first spike and then pull back?
After all, Monday is Labor Day in the US, with markets closed, giving three days for market adjustment.
If tonight's non-farm payrolls show negative growth again and unemployment rises to 4.3%, the situation from early last month may reoccur.
The dollar and US Treasury yields would fall, gold would continue to rise, and the Nasdaq and BTC would spike up then pull back.On-chain whales are frantically dumping MARSCOIN! Don't catch the peak at 0.185, wait for a pullback before considering buying.
Whales' cost is 0.0013, current price is 0.185, they've made 4456% profit and are gradually exiting in batches. Are you rushing in to help them take the last million shares?
Strategy: Wait patiently for a pullback to 0.162-0.168 before going long. Do not buy now!
Public opinion:
Brothers, the data is very clear—TOP1 address entered at 0.00133 38 days ago, now floating a profit of 2.31 million USD. After announcing an 80% pullback, they have already started small batch selling.
This is not to say the coin is doomed, but to tell you the juiciest gains are gone. Wait for a pullback near the midline at 0.162; the current risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
Remember, the top of a Meme coin is always sold by insiders. Wait for the pullback, don’t chase the highs, protecting your principal is most important. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Do you treat whale transfers as entry signals or just as auxiliary references?
Many traders rely heavily on whale transfer alerts, placing orders immediately upon seeing large on-chain transfers, which is actually a major trading misconception.
My view: whale transfers should only be used as auxiliary references and must never be directly treated as entry signals.
Many large transfers are just exchanges adjusting cold and hot wallets, institutional custody relocations, or OTC settlements, and do not necessarily indicate buying or selling. Depositing to an exchange doesn’t always mean a dump, and withdrawing to a cold wallet doesn’t necessarily mean a pump. Whales can also misread the market and perform fake moves to mislead the market into following.
Truly effective whale signals require multiple conditions to be verified together: wallet identity, fund destinations, combined with technical chart patterns, derivatives positions, and the overall macro market environment. A single transfer has a very low success rate in predicting market trends.
In practice, whale anomalies can be used for risk warning.
When seeing large fund movements, the first reaction should not be to place orders but to raise caution: if at the same time the candlestick breaks key levels and positions surge, then respond accordingly; if the market does not follow, treat it only as an observation signal and avoid blind actions.
Especially near non-farm payrolls, macro factors dominate the current market. On-chain data is just a bonus; entries must be based on price charts, not led blindly by on-chain news.#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位, can the momentum continue?
The BTC/Gold ratio recently surged to 18.17, a new high since January this year, meaning one Bitcoin can be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold. This round of market activity is quite unique: gold and Bitcoin rose simultaneously, but BTC significantly outperformed gold, with their 90-day correlation surging to a six-year high of 0.86. The digital gold attribute is fully demonstrated, but whether the ratio can sustain after a rise depends on two main variables: Federal Reserve inflation data and funding structure.
The underlying logic behind this round's rising ratio
1. Fiscal debt narrative resonance
With the US high deficit and massive federal debt, the market trades currency depreciation, and institutions classify gold and BTC together as hard asset hedging tools. The US Treasury Secretary publicly stated that debt will be resolved through growth, which the market interprets as a positive for limited asset supply.
2. Federal Reserve expectations are turning toward catalysis
Waller stated that August CPI will be key for the September rate meeting. Expectations of cooling inflation pushed down U.S. Treasury yields, risk-free yields declined, and funds flowed into gold. Bitcoin, with its inherent leveraged properties, was more flexible, allowing gains to outpace gold and directly push up the ratio.
3. Changes in capital structure
BTC-ETFs continued to see net inflows, with BTC's correlation with US tech stocks dropping sharply, no longer simply following risk stocks, and the proportion of digital gold trading rising.$BTC short brothers, it's not that I want to pour cold water, but I estimate that tonight, this asset will most likely rise again!
Yesterday's market was obviously a short squeeze; the market hasn't even ended yet, and no support level has been broken, yet shorts are flooding in like a tide!
Isn't this just fueling the bulls?
Moreover, the shorts are skilled and daring, with high leverage and full positions. If they get liquidated, don't blame the market.
My judgment is not baseless. In a short squeeze, you have to closely watch the liquidation map. Since yesterday, I have been checking the liquidation map from time to time.
After yesterday's big rise, shorts were liquidated cleanly (see Figure 1).
Today's movement clearly shows the main force is still supporting the market, fluctuating slightly around 81,000. The purpose is obvious: there are no more shorts to liquidate above, so the drop is to cover shorts.
This lays the foundation for the next upward momentum.
Otherwise, there would be no need to stubbornly defend this position, and the open interest (OI) keeps increasing continuously.
If the price could really fall, these longs would have taken profits long ago, and there would be no need to add so many new short orders.
It's just a trap set to make everyone think this is a very cost-effective short entry point.
Now, 12 hours have passed, and shorts have been well covered (see Figure 2).
And the shorts are cooperating well, with many high-leverage orders.
So, the market is still ready to start at any time.
The highest dense liquidation area for shorts currently is around 83,500.
Coincidentally, I placed a long position this afternoon, and I will also take the lead, placing sell orders around 83,500 to return the chips to the market.
The above analysis is just my personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!
Chasing highs requires caution and care, and going short against the trend requires even more caution. The most counterintuitive thing about underground money lenders is that money often doesn't cross borders at all. You hand over money to a middleman in City A, and another intermediary in City B gives the equivalent to the recipient. Both sides first make a note in their own ledgers, then after a few days or months, they slowly settle the difference through trade, cash, or mutual debt settlement. Planes don't transport cash, banks don't wire transfers, and the value has already arrived. This method, called Hawala and other non-bank settlement networks, is much older than smartphones. But a new FATF report from September 3 found that not only has it not been eliminated by digital finance, it has actually undergone a very covert upgrade: encrypted communications, fintech, anonymous tools, and crypto assets, making connections faster, networks more dispersed, and accounts harder to trace. In more than 50 jurisdictions surveyed, over 80% listed such systems as important channels or methods for professional money laundering; Some cases have processed amounts exceeding 500 million euros within a few months. It sounds like "the cash gang has learned to be on-chain," but I think focusing only on coin addresses misses the most critical layer. The real asset of this network is not a certain currency, but credit: who knows whom, who is willing to advance money, and who can fulfill promises in another city. Crypto tools simply add faster communication and more settlement options to this social ledger. Block one wallet, but the network remains; Change the address, and business can continue. Conversely, don't equate Hawala directly with crime. In regions with poor banking services, expensive remittances, or turbulent situations, it also meets real life needs. QuestionPolymarket Perps is interesting not because of 20x leverage, but because it combines event bets with market reactions.
For example: Long “Fed cuts” + Long BTC + Short S&P 500
You're no longer just betting on the event—you’re betting on how markets respond.
Prediction markets can also hedge event risk, though their binary payoffs differ from continuous perps.
If this expands, Polymarket could become more than a prediction market: an event-driven trading terminal.
#WallerEyesAugCPI $BTC $ETH
Current Market Expectations
August non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by about 55,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% and year-over-year wage growth of 3.0%. Institutional forecast ranges vary widely (-25,000 to +121,000), indicating high data volatility.
1. Data significantly exceeds expectations > 80,000, wages rise
Overheated employment, increased rate hike expectations, bullish for the US dollar, bearish for gold and crypto assets.
2. Data near expectations (30,000 to 70,000)
Neutral outcome, market prone to rapid spikes and retracements causing short-term volatility, difficult to sustain a one-sided trend.
3. Data significantly below expectations (<0 or negative, unemployment rate rises)
Weakening employment, market anticipates easing, bearish for the US dollar, bullish for gold and crypto markets.
Short-term Market View
Recent leading indicators like ADP and PMI employment components are generally weak. Combined with statistical disturbances from immigration policies, the market leans toward data underperformance. However, August non-farm payrolls have historically shown reverse surprises, so a one-sided bet is unwise. The decisive factor requires considering wages and revisions to previous data together. Non-farm payrolls only cause short-term impulse fluctuations; the medium-term trend ultimately depends on next week's CPI inflation data. BTC/gold ratio soars to 18.17, hitting a new high since January!
One Bitcoin can now be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold. Can the strength continue?
🧵 Core logic breakdown 👇
1️⃣ The driving force is not interest rate cuts, but "default" expectations
Debt-to-GDP ratios in the US, Japan, and Europe have all exceeded 100%, with the market betting that governments will use "inflation devaluation" to dilute debt.
Bessent says "rely on growth to get out of trouble"—to the whales, this is a signal to "buy Bitcoin."
2️⃣ Correlation soars to 0.86, the closest in six years
Bitcoin and gold are rising with the strongest linkage since 2020. This is no longer "safe haven vs risk," but two hard asset champions in the same boat.
3️⃣ Technicals: countdown to a major shakeup
Daily symmetrical triangle, apex pointing to September 28.
✅ If it breaks upward → target $106,500 - $117,800
❌ If it breaks downward → warning $41,500 - $43,300
4️⃣ Short-term warning
When BTC hit $81,336, the MFI indicator soared to 100, a textbook case of overbought.
Bloomberg marks $80,000 as a key resistance level for "momentum cooling."
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday, nonfarm payrolls ($BTC) and Bitcoin rose 0.01%, $ETH rose 0.56%. Stay calm about nonfarms. Tonight, nonfarm payroll data will be released. Three real cases worth checking out to understand how nonfarms affect Bitcoin 🤔. Case 1: Strong nonfarm payrolls shatter rate cut fantasies. In May 2026, nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. Rate cut expectations collapsed instantly, the dollar strengthened, Bitcoin was widely sold off, and the Nasdaq plunged 4.18% in a single day. 🌚 Case 2: Weak Nonfarm Payrolls, Bears Liquidated In June 2026, only 57,000 new nonfarm payrolls were added, far below expectations, with the total for the first two months revised down by 74,000. Bitcoin rebounded strongly from $57,700 to break through $61,000, rising over 6% in a single day. Short positions across the market were liquidated over $210 million in 24 hours, and spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $222 million in a single day. ❤️ Case 3: Employment Declines, but Rebound Slows In July 2026, Nonfarm Payrolls recorded -20,000, again significantly below expectations. Bitcoin surged and then retreated, closing slightly higher—when "bad news is good news" is repeatedly traded, the market gradually slows down, and the strength of the rebound depends on whether new catalysts are added. ✊ My Judgment: Nonfarms are an amplifier of short-term fluctuations in the crypto market, but not a determiner of long-term trends. What truly drives medium- to long-term price movements,$
1. Latest Current News
1. Significant Inflow of ETF Funds (Bullish Bias): On September 3, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $730.8 million, with BlackRock's IBIT net inflow at $454 million; ETH spot ETF net inflow was about $68 million. Institutional funds clearly favor BTC, which is a key support for this rapid rally.
2. Cooling Rate Hike Expectations (Bullish Bias): Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to slow, he would prefer to keep rates unchanged in September. Market expectations for a September rate hike dropped from about 63% to 50%, the US dollar index fell to around 98.96, and the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to about 4.762%; the Nasdaq rose 1.40% overnight, showing a clear recovery in risk appetite.
3. Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls and High Oil Prices Still Pose Risks: The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added in the US in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Brent crude remains near $95.5, up about 7% this week. If employment or inflation data is stronger than expected, it could push rate hike expectations and market volatility higher again.
Comprehensive News Judgment: Neutral to Slightly Bullish. Large ETF inflows, along with declines in the dollar and US Treasury yields, jointly support a rebound in BTC and ETH; however, BTC has already reached key resistance near $82,300. Combined with tonight's nonfarm payrolls and high oil price risks, the short-term rapid rally should not be directly interpreted as a one-sided breakout. $XRP +6% — ETF Inflows Are Back, But Don’t Overread It.
The XRP spot ETF recorded about $6.14M in net inflows, showing institutional demand remains.
However, the broader market also rallied sharply, with major short liquidations adding fuel.
This move looks more like market-wide risk-on + short covering than a confirmed institutional accumulation trend.
One day of inflows is a signal not a trend.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh Brothers, combining the last July non-farm actual of -23,000, and looking at this ADP of only 38,000, initial claims of 206,000, and the market's current expectation of about 55,000–65,000, I personally lean towards this non-farm payroll not being particularly strong.
My subjective forecast: non-farm payroll 40,000–70,000, leaning around 50,000; unemployment rate 4.1%–4.2%, wage growth most likely to remain moderate.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Empty empty empty living in the palace……
1. The current market has partially priced in "employment slowdown". On September 3, due to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, the rate hike expectations dropped, and BTC rebounded from 77,000 to around 81,000. The market is somewhat prepared for "weak data," but if the data is indeed weak, it may continue to boost risk appetite.
2. Strong data has a greater impact. If non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, rate hike expectations will quickly rise, and US Treasury yields may climb again, which would directly hit Bitcoin that just rebounded.
3. Technical position. The current price is above 80,000, with short-term bulls dominating. However, if the data is strong, the 80,000 support may be quickly tested.
My personal inclination
I tend to first look at the upside opportunity brought by weak data, meaning the probability of Bitcoin rising short-term after the non-farm payroll release is slightly higher. But this advantage is not large, because the probability of consensus is also high, in which case a situation of "both up and down with increased volatility" is more likely.
The most critical point: the volatility in the first 5–15 minutes after the non-farm payroll release will be very large, often first surging in one direction and then quickly reversing. Purely betting on direction is very risky. $BTC The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.818%!
A new high since November 2023.
Long-term rates have broken through the resistance zone again!
High oil prices and debt concerns are both exerting pressure.
Crypto has been heavily suppressed again by macro factors!
The intraday high of the US 10-year Treasury yield reached about 4.818%, the highest level since November 2023; the 30-year yield also briefly rose near 5.30%. High oil prices, sticky inflation, and US fiscal and debt pressures have jointly pushed long-term rates back up.
However, Fed officials later released dovish signals, and the 10-year yield has retreated from the high to around 4.74%–4.76%. For BTC, whether 4.8% can become a phase top is very critical; if yields continue to ease, tech stocks and Crypto can truly gain the momentum of financial condition easing.
#US 10-year Treasury yield hits new high since November 2023
4.818% has already hit the market’s pain point, and next we will see if this is the phase top for long-term rates.
As long as US Treasuries continue to fall, the previously suppressed elasticity of BTC can easily be released again! Account Position Divergence Radar
First, separate the stance and the bets; new information only arises when the account direction and the top positions are inconsistent.
$DOGE: Both the overall accounts and the top accounts are biased long, but the top position size is biased short. The number of accounts and position weights are not aligned. When the price rises, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and position attribution still requires transaction verification. Until the top position ratio returns above 1, the long account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.
$SUI: There is a misalignment between the long-short ratio, the number of accounts, top accounts, and top positions, which cannot yet be combined into a single conclusion. The 15-minute price and position move inversely, indicating expanding risk exposure. The next step is to see if selling pressure can continue to cause displacement. When the metrics are not aligned, first observe which side the top positions converge to, then see if the price responds.
$PEPE: Long accounts dominate, but the top position ratio has not crossed above 1; account sentiment and position strength remain misaligned. The 15-minute price and position move upward together, indicating expanding risk exposure. The next step is to see if the price can continue to realize gains. What the long side lacks next is not more accounts, but confirmation of the top position weight.Bitcoin is back above $81K — but I wouldn’t call this breakout confirmed yet. BTC pushed as high as ~$82.2K today before slipping back toward $80.8K. That puts the $81K–$82K zone right where the market needs to prove buyers can actually hold the breakout. The interesting part: today’s macro setup is more complicated than “weak jobs = bullish BTC.” August NFP is expected around +56K, after July’s -23K print. But Fed Governor Waller has already said his September decision will be driven heavily b$SPCX
Looking at the Russian version of Starlink and flat satellite networking, it is not the simple technology many people think it is.
The first batch of 16 "Russian Starlink" satellites was launched on March 23 this year. Currently, none of the satellites have raised their orbits to the operational altitude of about 800 kilometers; most remain at an orbit altitude of around 520 kilometers. Among them, one satellite failed to complete the orbit raise and has re-entered the atmosphere and burned up, and two others remain at an altitude of about 350 kilometers.
The second batch was launched on July 19 this year, with most orbits around 350 kilometers, and even two satellites' orbits decayed below 300 kilometers, facing the risk of re-entry and burn-up.
Meanwhile, China's Qianfan constellation has also experienced group satellite failures during networking, mainly with the Qianfan 02 group satellites. Currently, this batch of satellites is mainly being supplemented by 15 groups of satellites Tonight, almost everyone trading crypto has to keep an eye on the same thing: the US August nonfarm payroll report.
The market expects an increase of 53,000 to 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate stuck at 4.1%. This single figure can directly rewrite the direction of the Fed's September 16 meeting.
Honestly, there's a lot happening on the macro front this week. Last week, Waller hawked at Jackson Hole, pushing the September rate hike probability to 57%, which scared me into reducing my contracts. But yesterday, Fed Governor Waller turned dovish again, saying that as long as inflation continues to cool in August, he leans toward keeping rates unchanged. The rate hike probability instantly dropped from over 60% to about 50-50, causing US stocks to rebound and Treasury yields to fall.
My own understanding is that tonight's nonfarm payrolls probably won't be explosive. ADP has been weakening continuously, with July even showing a negative growth of 23,000 jobs. Immigration policies are also suppressing hiring. Even if the increase is just over 50,000 this time, it still represents a normal state of low hiring and low layoffs, not enough to make the Fed panic and hike rates. The real deciding factor is the inflation trend, and both Waller and Waller acknowledge this anchor.
So my guess for tonight's script is that the data will be lukewarm, the dollar will hover around 99, and risk assets will breathe a sigh of relief. But brothers, don't get carried away; the real test is the FOMC from September 15 to 17, when rate hike expectations can flip at any time. My strategy is to leave contracts untouched tonight, stay flat on spot, and adjust after seeing the dollar and gold's reaction to the data. At times like this, avoiding mistakes is more important than making money. $BTC Brothers, now if it’s around 7 PM, everyone should already be getting nervous. The current volatility of $BTC and $ETH is mostly waiting on the data; the real big direction will likely only be chosen after the 8:30 PM nonfarm payrolls release.
Comparing with last month is very clear: July’s nonfarm payrolls were -23,000, while the market now expects August to rebound to about +55,000–56,000, with the unemployment rate still around 4.1%. This time ADP was only 38,000, which also indicates employment isn’t particularly strong.
Personally, I currently lean toward August nonfarm payrolls being around 40,000–70,000, not especially strong. But once the data is out, if it’s significantly below expectations, BTC and ETH might directly strengthen; if it exceeds 100,000, then watch out for US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations rising again, causing prices to spike and then fall sharply or even crash quickly.
So now, whether you’re stuck or profiting, don’t make reckless moves based on the few minutes of up-and-down spikes before the data. Stick strictly to your trading plan. Once the data is out, wait for the first wave of intense volatility to settle before judging the trend. Don’t get carried away by a single big bullish or bearish candle.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC continues its strong rebound, trading between $80,700 and $81,200 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour increase of about 5%. It once broke through $82,000 intraday, reaching a four-month high since May. Previously, on September 2, BTC briefly dropped to around $76,700, then quickly surged over $4,000 in the following two trading days.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaled dovishness, stating that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has sharply dropped from over 63% to 50.4%. Both the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, directly igniting Bitcoin's rebound. Meanwhile, US-Iran geopolitical risks have marginally eased, with the US military escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has somewhat restored market sentiment.
BTC has broken through the key psychological level of $80,000, but there is potential selling pressure from long-term holders in the $83,000–$86,000 range above. The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 74 (greed zone). Capital flows are diverging: the Bitcoin spot ETF attracted a net inflow of $277 million on Thursday, but flows have fluctuated over the past four days, and a sustained buying momentum has yet to form.
Tonight's US nonfarm payroll report and next Friday's CPI data will determine whether dovish expectations can translate into actual rate cuts. If the data supports rate cuts, BTC is expected to challenge the $83,000 resistance and even test the $100,000 level; if the data is strong, a pullback to around $70,000 is possible.Bitcoin Is Starting to Outshine Gold.
One BTC now buys 18+ ounces of gold, reaching a new high for the year.
The bigger story isn’t simply Bitcoin going up. It’s the growing concern around fiat purchasing power, debt, and persistent deficits.
As government debt continues to expand, investors are increasingly looking for assets that can’t be easily diluted.
That’s where Bitcoin enters the conversation.
Gold has been the traditional hedge.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh In early September, $CORE experienced a typical "issuance layer vulnerability + emergency hard fork + large-scale burn" event.
The official team ultimately announced around September 3 the launch of the v1.0.26 hard fork, which closed the vulnerability and permanently destroyed over 150 million excess issued CORE tokens. There was no transaction rollback, no user funds lost, and staking rewards are expected to return to normal within 48 hours. A full post-mortem report will be released soon.
On the surface, this was a technical incident, but essentially it tested the project's crisis response capability, tokenomics integrity, and the commitment to the "hard cap supply" promise.
1. Event Timeline: From Discovery to Implementation
Around August 31 (Monday): Official first disclosure
The official Core account @Coredao_Org posted a status update: There was a network issue where a small number of validators accumulated block rewards significantly exceeding the protocol's designed issuance. The root cause has been identified, and mitigation measures are underway. User assets are safe; the issue only affects reward issuance, not network security or fund custody. A full post-mortem will follow.
At this point, the public did not know the scale, only that "a small number of validators received excess rewards." Major exchanges immediately reacted: Coinbase suspended sending and receiving CORE, and Bithumb, Coinone, Bitget, LBank, and others also suspended deposits, withdrawals, or transfers. Standard procedure to prevent greater risk.
September 1: Escalation and coordination of hard fork
The official update: The issue is under control, and malicious validators can no longer extract excess rewards. Coordination for an emergency hard fork is underway to deploy a permanent fix. It was emphasized this is a forward upgrade, not a rollback. Assets remain safe, and a full post-mortem will follow.
A key change here: the issue was redefined from an "issue" to "malicious validators." The official stance is that the behavior was malicious, not just a code bug causing accidental over-issuance. This indicates these validators actively exploited the vulnerability to continuously extract excess rewards.
September 2-3: Hard fork implementation + burn announcement
The v1.0.26 (and preparatory versions) were released on GitHub, with the mainnet hard fork activation around September 3. The official announcement stated: The v1.0.26 hard fork is live on the Core mainnet, resolving the reward issuance problem. The upgrade closed the vulnerability and destroyed over 150 million excess issued CORE tokens, permanently removing them from supply. No transactions were rolled back, and no user funds were lost. Staking rewards are expected to normalize within 48 hours. A full follow-up analysis report will be published.
2. Root Cause: What exactly happened? What was the nature of the vulnerability?
One of Core's tokenomics core selling points is "mimicking Bitcoin's hard cap supply": a total hard cap of 2.1 billion CORE tokens (100 times Bitcoin's), with node mining rewards (about 840 million) gradually issued over 81 years, with annual rewards decreasing by about 3.61%, approaching but never reaching the hard cap. Rewards come mainly from newly minted CORE plus transaction fees, distributed to validators and their delegators (including CORE stakers and Bitcoin hash power delegators).
The problem was in the reward calculation/distribution system contract or logic. A small number of validators were able to accumulate block rewards far exceeding the protocol's designed issuance. The official later explicitly called them "malicious validators," indicating they were not passive beneficiaries but actively exploiting the vulnerability to continuously extract rewards.
The official has not yet released a full post-mortem with technical details, but from public information, it can be inferred:
- The vulnerability was in the reward issuance layer, not in consensus security or user asset layers.
- It broke the protocol's original issuance curve and hard cap commitment.
- If not fixed promptly, each new block would continue over-issuing, causing severe long-term supply dilution.
- The excess tokens had already been minted, so the hard fork directly destroyed these excess tokens at the protocol level.
Importantly: This was not a hacker stealing user wallets, nor a smart contract being drained. Users' own CORE, staked tokens, and cross-chain assets were not lost. The problem was strictly limited to the "validator reward issuance" process. This is similar to inflation bugs or reward calculation errors seen historically on some chains, but the scale here was over 150 million tokens, which is significant.
Some questioned why "malicious validators" were able to continue for some time before detection. Possibly monitoring thresholds were not real-time enough, or reward settlements were done in rounds (about daily), causing anomalies to accumulate before being noticed. This also exposed shortcomings in validator monitoring and reward auditing mechanisms.
3. Specific Operations of Hard Fork and Burn
The official repeatedly emphasized two points:
- Forward upgrade, not rollback. All confirmed transactions are retained; history is not rewritten. This is critical. Rollbacks would undermine trust in "code is law" and transaction finality, especially impacting exchanges, DeFi protocols, and cross-chain bridges. Core chose a cleaner approach: from a certain block height, new rules take effect, the vulnerability is closed, and excess tokens are directly burned.
- Destroying over 150 million excess issued CORE tokens, permanently removing them from supply.
After the burn, these tokens are gone forever and cannot be used by anyone. Staking rewards are temporarily affected (possibly paused or abnormal), but the official said they will return to normal within 48 hours.
From a tokenomics perspective, this is equivalent to an unexpected large-scale deflation event. Core already has fee and partial reward burn mechanisms (DAO adjustable ratio), and this was an additional "forced burn."
Core's core narrative remains "making Bitcoin truly work" (BTCFi, staking yields, fast low-cost ecosystem). The reward vulnerability was a side story; the real determinant of survival is whether the Bitcoin ecosystem can be sustainably realized.
As long as the project is sufficiently transparent going forward and improvement measures are implemented, the long-term fundamental damage from this event is controllable. For ordinary holders and participants, short-term focus is on whether rewards resume on time, exchanges return to full normal operation, and liquidity risks amid price volatility; mid-to-long term depends on whether the project truly turns this lesson into stronger monitoring and governance mechanisms. Today's market compared to yesterday just changed the leading sector, with non-ferrous metals and chemicals taking the lead, but the pattern of rising then falling is exactly the same.
The manufacturing data released during the session was actually decent, but the market completely ignored it, showing a typical scenario of good news already priced in. The biggest fear at this level is a prolonged sideways movement leading to a drop, so everyone is cautious.
$BTC is still barely alive, the battle around the 60,000 mark is endless. $SOL showed some strength today, but the volume didn't keep up, feeling more like an oversold rebound.
Honestly, in this market, both going long and short are uncomfortable, so it's better to focus your energy on stock selection and wait for stabilization before making a move. Watching the intraday charts every day only increases anxiety and is useless. Do what you need to do, don't let the market throw off your rhythm.$BTC
Friends who haven't fully entered the position need not panic; there are clear guidelines for BTC's pullback entry points.
Figure 1 shows the liquidity cycle of realized market capitalization, where we can see that when the 30-day liquidity cycle index rises from the long-term zero axis, it indicates leaving the bear market bottom area (red area in Figure 1). When it returns to the zero axis again, that marks the last entry point in the early bull market (black line in Figure 1), usually offering one or two opportunities.
Figure 2 shows the profit-loss ratio of unrealized profits for short-term holders, where we can see that when the index starts to leave the long-term loss area, it indicates leaving the bear market bottom range (yellow box in Figure 2). When it returns to the loss area again, it also marks the last entry point in the early bull market (blue circle in Figure 2), usually with one or two opportunities.
Interestingly, these two indicators align perfectly in timing, so when they trigger simultaneously again, that is the best position to add to BTC on a pullback ByteDance secures nearly $30 billion, the largest syndicated loan in history; China's major AI race heats up balance sheets. ByteDance has completed a syndicated loan agreement of about $29.6 billion, setting a company record and ranking as the second-largest US dollar loan in Asia this year, only behind SoftBank's approximately $40 billion bridge loan. The nominal purpose of the loan is general corporate use, but ByteDance is significantly increasing investment in AI data centers, computing infrastructure, and models like Doubao. Coupled with Alibaba's $10.2 billion equity placement last month fully directed towards AI, capital expenditure on AI by major Chinese companies is entering an acceleration phase. ByteDance has completed a syndicated loan agreement of about $29.6 billion, a scale that sets a company record and is also the second-largest US dollar loan in Asia this year, only behind SoftBank's approximately $40 billion bridge loan. Notably, the initial planned scale of this loan was $20 billion, but due to strong subscription demand from banks, it was ultimately increased to nearly $30 billion. The oversubscription reflects international banks' recognition of the creditworthiness of Chinese tech giants. This loan was not disclosed as a special AI financing; its nominal purpose is general corporate use. However, considering ByteDance's current actions, the flow of funds is not hard to deduce: the company is significantly increasing capital expenditure, focusing on expanding AI data centers and computing infrastructure, continuously investing in large model R&D such as Doubao and Seedance, while also expanding cloud services aimed at enterprise customers. The computing power, electricity, and data centers required for AI training and inference are all heavy asset investments with huge capital consumption. The large loan is precisely to stockpile ammunition for this protracted battle. Broadening the perspective Single-day ETF fund changes cannot directly determine that institutions have completely abandoned altcoin assets.
ETH ended a 12-day consecutive rise, XRP ended 11 days of capital inflow, both simultaneously showing outflows, while BTC saw a large net inflow, leaning more towards a short-term profit-taking rebalancing. After a round of gains, it is logical for institutions to realize some profits and shift into more liquid safe-haven targets.
Going forward, the key is to observe whether funds continue to exit; a single outflow does not mean the altcoin market is completely over, but the short-term market will face some selling pressure.
Do you think this is just a temporary profit-taking and rebalancing, or the beginning of a cooldown in the altcoin market?
$BTC $ETH $FIL $XAU $ZECBitcoin experienced a thousand-point roller coaster this week! Hawkish speech by Waller crashed the market, dovish reversal by Waller triggered a short squeeze, $415 million shorts vaporized — Weekly cryptocurrency summary for September 4
Brothers, this week's market can only be described in four words — roller coaster.
On August 28, BTC was still above $81,000. On September 4, BTC once broke through $82,000. What happened in between? Two people from the Federal Reserve Chair and Board, two speeches, caused the market to first fall then rise, with a fluctuation exceeding $5,000.
This article helps you fully review the week's trend, liquidations, macro and regulatory changes.
📊 Weekly Market Review
Monday to Wednesday (August 31 - September 2): Waller's hawkish speech, BTC fell below $77,000
Last Friday (August 28), Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Waller delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. He clearly stated that the inflation rate is "still too high," and if inflation does not fall quickly enough to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." The market quickly repriced — CME data showed the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before Waller's speech to 66.4%.
BTC dropped from above $81,000, once falling below $77,000, down more than $4,000 in three days. Ethereum fell from above $2,500 to below $2,400, SOL dropped from around $110 to $97.
Thursday (September 3): Waller releases dovish signal, BTC violently rebounds
Just as the market was suffocated by rate hike expectations, Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller clearly stated: if inflation data over the next two weeks continues to show easing price pressures, he "leans toward supporting" holding rates steady at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
One sentence ignited the market. BTC violently surged from around $77,000, returning above $81,000 overnight. CME showed the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from 66% to about 50%.
💥 Liquidation Data: $415 million shorts evaporated overnight
The special feature of this round of market movement is that the main force driving the price was not new buying, but forced liquidation of shorts.
CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, total crypto market liquidations exceeded $510 million, with short liquidations over $415 million. More than $164 million in short positions were liquidated within just 4 hours. Over 119,000 traders worldwide were forced to liquidate. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, exceeding $5.2 million.
This is a typical short squeeze — rate hike probability drops sharply → BTC rebounds → shorts forced to liquidate → liquidation buying further pushes up the price.
📰 Macro: Rate hike probability first rises then falls, nonfarm payroll data revealed tonight
The core macro variable this week is only one — the Fed's rate hike expectations.
After Waller's speech, CME data showed the September rate hike probability once surged to 68%. But after Waller's dovish signal, the probability fell back to about 50%.
At 20:30 tonight, US August nonfarm payroll data will be released. The market expects new jobs around 53,000-56,000, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Economists' forecast ranges from a decrease of about 25,000 to an increase of about 121,000, showing huge divergence.
· Nonfarm exceeds expectations (>100,000): rate hike probability may rise, BTC under pressure
· Nonfarm meets expectations (50,000-80,000): market may remain volatile
· Nonfarm below expectations (<30,000): rate hike probability falls, BTC may continue to rebound
📈 Performance of Various Coins
BTC: This week showed a “V-shaped” reversal. August 28 about $81,000 → September 2 low near $77,000 → September 4 broke through $82,000. Weekly amplitude exceeded $5,000.
ETH: Rose to $2,486 on August 28, a new high since January. Then corrected with the market to below $2,400, rebounded above $2,500 on September 4.
SOL: Broke through $110 on August 28, this rebound exceeded 40%. Then corrected to $97, rebounded to the $103-$105 range on September 4.
💰 ETF Fund Flows: Nine consecutive net inflows ended
During the week of August 24-28, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted a total of $1.75 billion in funds. Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $924.48 million.
On August 27, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $242.3 million, extending the consecutive net inflow record to nine trading days. But on August 28, Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $202 million, ending the nine-day net inflow trend. August Bitcoin ETF total net inflows still exceeded $3 billion.
🏛️ Regulatory Developments: CLARITY Act key vote on September 15
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said this week that the Senate is expected to vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15, and he expects the bill to pass and be sent to the President for signature.
But Galaxy Research weekly report sharply lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 10%. The bill faces political resistance in the Senate, and the window for passage is closing.
Two forces are racing — the SEC pushing, Congress dragging. September 15 will be a critical node.
📌 Summary
This week, the market experienced the full cycle of Waller's hawkish crash → rate hike probability surged to 68% → BTC fell below $77,000 → Waller's dovish reversal → rate hike probability fell to 50% → BTC broke through $82,000. $415 million shorts were vaporized in the short squeeze.
Next two key nodes:
· Tonight (September 4, 20:30): US August nonfarm payroll data
· September 11: US August CPI data
· September 15: CLARITY Act Senate vote + Fed FOMC meeting
Before data release, the market will likely maintain high volatility. Brothers, were you swept this week? Let's chat in the comments👇#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 $BTC $ETH $SOL SanDisk's movement today, those who understand will understand—on the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, funds have already started to rush ahead.
In the early session, it directly dropped to 1511, looking like it was going to collapse, but in the end, it was forcibly pulled back to close at 1554 in the green. Now the dark pool is even at 1580, with nearly 6% turnover for the whole day and a trading volume of 13.4 billion USD.
This volume would be unusual on a normal day, but on the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, the meaning is even clearer: someone is positioning in advance.
The logic is actually very straightforward. Yesterday's small Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly cooled, with August ADP only 37,000, a new low for the year; tonight's market expectation for Nonfarm Payrolls is only 56,000. If it cools again, the probability of a September rate hike will drop from 60%. When rate hike expectations cool down, who bounces first? Highly elastic AI storage stocks—like SanDisk, whose valuation is fully dependent on liquidity and expectations.
In short, the market is betting now: weak data -> no rate hike -> capital loosening -> high beta stocks take off. SanDisk's late-session rush to accumulate today is funds betting on this scenario in advance.
But to be fair, if Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly exceed expectations, those who rushed ahead today will be the ones left holding the bag tomorrow. The pre-data frenzy is always Schrödinger's rally. #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC 1. Let's first review what happened to BTC in 24 hours. Currently, BTC has returned to around $80,000, surging above $81,400 on September 3, and reaching a high near $82,000 on September 4, close to previous highs. Reuters points out that BTC has rebounded about 30% from its lows and is now challenging the key resistance at around $82,793. More importantly, this rally is not pure retail investor FOMO: US spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, the largest single-day inflow since mid-January; BlackRock IBIT accounted for about $454 million. In August, US spot BTC ETFs absorbed about $3.5 billion. This means the logic of "ETF inflows → BTC rises" still holds true. So if someone simply says: "BTC has risen so much because the last retail investors are taking over," I think the evidence is insufficient. What truly deserves caution is another issue: ETFs are being bought, but the macro environment may not allow risk assets to rise indefinitely. ⸻ 2. "More and more positive news" may actually be risk. Market tops are often not "no good news," but rather: everyone is beginning to explain why prices should keep rising. Now the story of BTC is very complete: * ETFs continue to accumulate funds * Institutions allocate BTC * US dollar weakens temporarily * Federal Reserve is on pause/dovish expectations Gold’s reaction has been particularly straightforward. Based on the logic that a lower probability of interest-rate hikes is bullish for gold, this latest move higher appears to be pricing in roughly a 10-percentage-point decline in hike expectations. If this relationship continues to hold, the previous low around 4,280 is very likely to mark the bottom of this corrective phase. 🛡️
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC How the rate hike game before the non-farm payrolls guides the crypto market
The August non-farm payroll report is the last employment report before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Currently, the market's bet on a September rate hike is about 50%-60%, at the watershed between a hike and holding steady.
The mainstream market expectation is that August non-farm payrolls will increase by about 53,000-56,000, the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%, and the month-on-month growth rate of average hourly earnings will rebound to 0.3%. The previous value in July was an unexpected decrease of 23,000.
Scenario 1: Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations (new jobs > 100,000)
Impact direction: significantly increases the probability of a rate hike
If new jobs far exceed expectations (e.g., over 100,000), while the unemployment rate remains at 4.1% or even declines, it means the negative employment growth in July may have been a short-term fluctuation, and the labor market remains resilient.
Transmission logic:
Strong employment → proves the economy can withstand further rate hike pressure
Combined with high oil prices (currently around $90) pushing inflation pressure → the Fed has more room to continue controlling inflation
The market will further increase its bet on a September rate hike
Market reaction: US Treasury yields and the dollar rise, gold comes under pressure, and high-valuation tech stocks are hit first.
Non-farm payrolls meet expectations (new jobs 30,000-70,000, unemployment rate remains at 4.1%)
Impact direction: neutral to stable, does not solely determine a rate hike
This is the scenario closest to current market pricing. If new jobs fall around 50,000-60,000, even with weak hiring, it will only continue the "low hiring, low layoffs" stable pattern. $ETH $ARB How much longer can this rent-collecting narrative keep going?
Brothers, ARB has taken off these past two days, rising nearly 50% in three days, from 0.07 all the way to 0.14. The core logic is simple — Robinhood Chain is paying it rent.
Robinhood Chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, and in just two months since launch, it has generated over $13 million in fees. According to the protocol, 10% of net revenue is returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, totaling $1.3 million distributed so far. The market suddenly realized — L2 can be played like this? Just collect taxes passively, isn’t that better than struggling to pull TVL?
But I think this wave of sentiment has mostly played out.
Technically, RSI is above 70, and the price has pierced the upper Bollinger Band, indicating severe overbought conditions. More importantly, price is rising but open interest is falling, meaning this rally is more about shorts being squeezed out rather than new money chasing. Also, on September 16 and 23, two unlocks will release over 230 million tokens, which is real selling pressure.
Whether Robinhood Chain’s hype can last depends on whether its fee income can stay high. And don’t forget, Robinhood is a publicly traded company — if they ever think the 10% revenue share is too costly, they could just follow Base and leave anytime. #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC It feels like going back to square one overnight. $ZEC surged 10% to a new high, and after stopping out, I chased another position and got heavily trapped. $HYPE also broke to a new high ahead of its September 6 token unlock.
Meanwhile, BTC broke above 81,000 and ETH gained around 5%. The market is showing strong bullish momentum, but the key question is whether this rally can hold.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC 🔥$OKB Don't treat the “21 million+ X Layer” as a money printing machine, first laugh at these three things
Newbies rush in just because OKB is known as the “Bitcoin alternative with a fixed total supply.” On September 4th, it hovered between 108–110. Here are three counterintuitive points:
First, fixed total supply ≠ automatic price increase. 21 million is a hard cap, but price depends on demand absorption, not scheduled burning. X Layer is a zk-based L2, with OKB paying Gas; RWA/DeFi/Pay/Jumpstart all generate consumption, but the exact burn per transaction, whether it recirculates, or subsidizes nodes varies by stage and documentation. To truly watch deflation, focus on X Layer’s daily transaction count, daily Gas fees, and OKX spot/futures revenue feedback, not just the word “scarcity.”
Second, platform tokens = exchange health reports. OKB’s valuation is tied to OKX’s trading volume, listings, reserve proofs, licenses across regions, and AML strength. High trading volume and real ecosystem revenue provide a price floor; negative regulatory, security, or withdrawal news impacts it more emotionally than public chain tokens. On September 2nd, a high-risk address review warning came out, and short-term sentiment reacted before fundamentals.
Third, don’t be fooled by liquidity. Some source market caps are 2.3 billion, with occasional trading volumes over 30 million USD. Although 21 million circulating supply looks scarce, large orders cause significant slippage; the surge from lows in August and the pullback to 105–110 in September is a digestion of the “model story told and usage data verified,” not a crash nor a straight continuation. $OKB Non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow
Both BTC and ETH surged significantly, market sentiment is high
Before any news release, the market tends to consume expectations in advance
There will be another small rally when tomorrow's news is announced
I will choose to short at the high after tomorrow's news release because the truly core heavy news will be released mid-month. Once the momentum from the non-farm data fades, the market will fall into panic again. Why did US stocks, bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin and Ethereum suddenly pump at the same time?
It’s not random — the Fed just gave the market a reason to breathe.
The probability of a rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting dropped from nearly 70% yesterday to just over 50%.
So what changed?
Fed Governor Chris Waller basically sent a more dovish message.
#DailyOrbit Calling $BTC a Ponzi? Let’s be real.
A Ponzi relies on deception, a central operator, and promised returns. Bitcoin has none of that—no CEO, no guarantees, no central authority. Just transparent rules, open-source code, and a capped supply.
You don’t have to support $BTC, but labels don’t change how it works.
Ponzis run on promises. Bitcoin runs on rules.
#DailyOrbit The US stock market rebound on September 3 was not an ordinary one, but a strong recovery jointly driven by the Federal Reserve's pause in rate hikes expectation, collective rise of Mag7, and AI software performance realization (important note)
Tonight at 20:30, the US non-farm payrolls will be releasedLast night, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged mainly due to the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals, a weakening US dollar, capital inflows, and a rebound in US tech stocks boosting risk appetite. Bitcoin broke through key moving averages, triggering short covering.
However, tonight's US non-farm payroll data will be a critical variable:
Stronger-than-expected data may cause a volatile pullback
Weaker-than-expected data could extend the rally
In the short term, avoid chasing highs; Bitcoin's strong resistance is at 92000-93000
Pay attention to key support and resistance levels before making trades. 🟠 $140M+ in crypto shorts got liquidated as $BTC , $ETH , $XRP & $BNB rallied.
But a short squeeze ≠ fresh capital.
The real signal is what happens next: 📈 BTC holds higher 💰 Spot volume rises 🏦 ETF demand returns
If price fades fast, leverage likely fueled the move.
#DailyOrbit
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh $DASH $SPX
DASH: Current price 52.36, 24h +22.91%. Pulled from 48.51 up to 54.80 then back to around 52, recent two-hour range 50.86–54.00; several 15-minute volume surges on the rally, volume also increased on the pullback, more like profit-taking after a breakout, so do not directly treat the strength as a continued rise. Funding rate 0.005%, OI about 3.82 million USD, no obvious signs of bullish overheating yet. It is a payment-oriented public chain, operating through masternodes, fast confirmations, and on-chain governance. No confirmed recent catalysts; first watch if 50.86 can hold, if broken watch for a retest of 48.51, 54.80 remains resistance above. ⚠️
SPX: Current price 0.647, 24h +20.37%. Pulled quickly from 0.6364 to 0.6756 in 15 minutes, then two volume-increasing bearish candles pulled back, resembling high-level rotation after an emotional push; funding rate 0.005%, OI about 1.45 million USD, chasing funds should beware of amplified volatility. It is a meme coin centered around the narrative of "flipping the US stock index," core is community sentiment, not a protocol with cash flow. No confirmed recent catalysts; 0.6364 is short-term support, if it cannot reclaim 0.6756 do not treat the rebound as a new trend, if broken look toward around 0.5819. ⚠️
#DASH #SPX #PaymentSector #MemeCoin$BTC has been all over the community, and the screen is full of bullish views, but I actually feel a chill down my spine.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ZEC—almost all posts are unanimously bullish, even the usually most cautious old retail investors are shouting "a pullback is a buying opportunity." Such highly consistent optimism in a market controlled by whale manipulators is never a good sign—the more it makes you feel secure, the more likely it is setting a trap.
After trading for a long time, a conditioned reflex is ingrained in my bones: when everyone is crowding in one direction, it’s often the eve of a market reversal.
There are several details in the current market that look increasingly off:
① It’s true that ETFs saw a huge inflow of 731 million yesterday, but after the peak, it’s very likely to shrink. If today’s inflow drops below 200 million, sentiment will quickly turn sour.
② The "no rate hike" expectation has already been fully priced in; the probability of a rate hike has dropped from 63% to 50%, and all reactions have been exhausted. If tonight’s non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, the good news is already priced in and will turn bearish; if it falls short, it may trigger recession fears causing a double sell-off in stocks and crypto—either way, it’s unstable.
③ Altcoins are falling and not following the rise; Bitcoin has rallied 5%, but ZEC is still stagnant, indicating that funds only dare to push BTC and have no intention to spread out. This kind of "isolated island rally" is structurally unhealthy.
④ Chasing longs above 81,000 is pitifully low in cost-effectiveness. If it’s truly a major trend, missing one or two candlesticks won’t matter; if it’s a bull trap, rushing in now is just standing guard for the whales.
So at this position, I really can’t bring myself to go long.Non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow
Both BTC and ETH surged significantly, market sentiment is high
Before any news release, the market tends to consume expectations in advance
There will be another small rally when tomorrow's news is announced
I will choose to short at the high after tomorrow's news release because the truly core heavy news will be released mid-month. Once the momentum from the non-farm data fades, the market will fall into panic again. Crypto just delivered a sharp reminder about how leverage can distort momentum. More than $140M in short positions were liquidated as $BTC , $ETH , $XRP and $BNB moved higher. That liquidation cascade can explain the speed of the rally. But it doesn't answer the more important question: Who is still buying after the shorts are gone? That is where my attention is now. A squeeze can force traders to cover and send price through resistance. Real accumulation needs something different: sustained de🌍 CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE
South Korean regulators introduce tokenized securities roadmap
South Korea’s financial regulator introduced a three-phase roadmap for the issuance of tokenized assets, as the country prepares to adopt its first tokenized securities framework in February 2027.
Source: Cointelegraph.com News • 04 Sep 2026 10:42 UTC
#CryptoNews #OKXOrbitTopicsAfter looking around, the screen is full of bulls, which actually makes me uneasy.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ZEC, almost all community posts are unanimously bullish, even the most cautious people have started saying "a pullback is a buying opportunity." Such highly consistent optimism has never been a good sign in the market.
I've been trading for a long time and have a reflex ingrained in my bones: when everyone is aligned in one direction, it is often the eve of a market reversal.
There are several details in the current market that make me uncomfortable:
① After continuous volume surges in ETFs, can marginal buying continue? Yesterday's inflow of 731 million is a fact, but after a peak, volume usually shrinks. If today's inflow drops below 200 million, sentiment will quickly cool down.
② The price has fully priced in the "no rate hike" expectation. The probability of a rate hike dropped from 63% to 50%, and the market has reacted accordingly. If tonight's non-farm payroll exceeds expectations, the good news is already priced in and could turn bearish; if it falls short, it might trigger recession fears, causing a double sell-off in stocks and crypto—either way, it's uneasy.
③ Altcoins fall with declines but don't rise with gains. Bitcoin rose 5%, but ZEC stayed flat, indicating funds only dare to push BTC without willingness to spread. This "isolated island" rise is structurally unhealthy.
④ My market intuition is warning me. Above 81,000, the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is very low. If this were a big trend, it wouldn't miss one or two candlesticks; if it's a bull trap, entering now means standing guard at the peak.
The conclusion is clear: at this position, I can't go long. It's not bearish, just that I don't quite understand it. Missing out doesn't lose money; making the wrong move does.September Crypto Outlook: Policy Support, Data Market Shakeout.
The US will vote on the CLARITY Act on 9.15, granting crypto formal compliance status and fully competing for global crypto dominance. $BTC, $ETH, $DOGE are oscillating at "relatively high levels"; once passed, it will instantly ignite the market.
The bull market will definitely progress in waves. Besides avoiding chasing highs, it is crucial to seize every pullback opportunity to enter. Whether the September rate hike expectations can be lowered again depends on tonight's 8:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls.
Market structure:
82.8 is a key resistance zone; downward focus is on the 74.6k accumulation level. If the Nonfarm Payrolls data exceeds expectations, it will create a brief entry opportunity.
September's tone is volatile + extreme, with policy factors including Nonfarm Payrolls + CPI + Clarity Act + Federal Reserve meeting. September is the last month to accumulate before the final breakout.Japanese long-term bond yields have risen to high levels, making this slowly becoming expensive money the easiest to underestimate in global markets
For many years, Japan has been the low-interest backdrop of the global capital system. The yen was cheap, financing costs were low, and arbitrage trades were convenient, benefiting many risk assets indirectly. Now that Japanese long-term rates are rising, this backdrop is starting to shake, and the impact will not be limited to Japan itself
It will affect insurance funds, pensions, yen carry trades, and also the relative attractiveness of global bonds. Slow variables are the most annoying; they won't give you a sudden surge or plunge like tech stock earnings on the same day, but they will gradually change the underlying cost of capital
If Japan is no longer stable and cheap, many previously reasonable high valuations will suddenly seem a bit expensive
#日本长债收益率升至高位 If you only look at the candlesticks, $LINK has recently risen a lot and then hovered around $12. But if you string together all the news from the past few months, I actually think this time is worth discussing separately. Because $LINK is undergoing a very important change: it's selling not just "oracles," but competing for "what infrastructure traditional finance needs to enter blockchain." Let's start with the most direct recent one. The US Department of Commerce has started bringing real GDP, PCE, and other economic data on-chain via Chainlink. This may seem small, but the logic is actually big. Previously, on-chain financial protocols needed price data; now they need macroeconomic data, proof of reserves, cross-chain messages, and institutional asset data. In other words, Chainlink is shifting from "feeding DeFi prices" to "sending real-world data to the blockchain." Then let's look at CCIP. Now, CCIP connects to over 80 networks and supports more than 195 tokens. Cross-chain infrastructure is no longer just a concept in the white paper, but is continuously expanding its actual coverage. (ccip.chain.link) And recently, there's another easily overlooked change: Wyoming's stablecoin FRNT uses Chainlink Proof of Reserve for on-chain reserve verification. This means Chainlink is simultaneously serving three markets: data, cross-chain, and asset verification. Going further