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Why does the non-farm payroll have limited impact on the US stock market but is so sensitive to $BTC?
I find this recent phenomenon quite interesting: after the non-farm data is released, although the US stock market fluctuates, BTC's reaction is clearly more direct. Why?
Let's look at this data. In August, US non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly higher than market expectations, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell below $80,000, and the market began to worry again about the Fed's interest rate policy in September.
The key lies here—BTC is now trading not just on "how the economy is doing," but on "when liquidity will return."
The US stock market is supported by multiple factors such as corporate earnings, AI, buybacks, and industry fundamentals, so a stronger non-farm payroll does not necessarily mean funds will immediately exit the stock market. In fact, after this data release, the declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were relatively limited.
But BTC is different.
BTC is more sensitive to the US dollar, interest rates, liquidity, and risk appetite. When non-farm payrolls are strong, the market worries about delayed rate cuts or even renewed bets on rate hikes; the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, raising the cost of capital for risk assets, so BTC naturally bears the brunt first.
In the short term, if employment continues to be strong and inflation does not come down, it will be difficult for BTC to firmly stand above $80,000 again; conversely, if employment starts to cool and the market re-trades rate cut expectations, BTC may actually start up faster than the US stock market.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% I am Cige, and SanDisk has risen again. It closed up 11.9% on September 4, with a cumulative increase of about 21% over the past five trading days. The market is pricing in a 10% to 15% increase in NAND contract prices for Q3, but no one seems to care that the price increase is slowing down, nor that capacity will double in five years.
SanDisk and Kioxia announced a joint investment of over $31 billion in Japan to expand NAND capacity by 2032, with the new factory in North Shanghai aiming for mass production in fiscal year 2029. The Bank of Korea stated that new factories from Samsung and SK Hynix coming online by 2028 will increase South Korea's monthly wafer capacity by about 600,000 units. Demand is strengthening, price increases continue, but the leaders are already betting on five years from now. This round of memory market pricing is based on current shortages or supply three years from now—the answer is emerging. When the market fully digests the expectation of doubled capacity, the signal for the cycle peak will arrive earlier than most imagine. The logic for the 1888 short position is clear; the direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 1 BTC can now be exchanged for more than 1 jin of gold, finally a bit of relief 😅
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
Watching $80,000 every day, but from another perspective, Bitcoin's performance this round isn't that bad.
A report on September 4 showed the BTC to gold ratio rose to 18.17, a new high since January. Simply put: one Bitcoin could be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold at that time. Gold has also been rising recently, yet BTC still outpaced it, which shows some weight in this relative strength.
But if you stop here and say "funds are abandoning gold and fully buying BTC," that's an overstatement. This ratio only tells you who is moving faster; it can't tell you exactly where the money is coming from.
What I care more about is whether BTC can maintain this advantage the next time the market struggles. We've seen many times that BTC surges more aggressively than gold during uptrends; but if it gives back all the relative gains when interest rate pressures hit, then the term "digital gold" becomes quite a hot potato to hold.
Another easily overlooked point: outperforming gold doesn't necessarily mean your account is making money. If both fall, as long as gold falls more, the ratio will still rise.
This new high in the ratio gives me a bit more confidence in BTC, but what I want to see next is that it falls less during corrections. After all, holders have to get through the weekend; they can't only enjoy the "golden treatment" when prices are rising.BTC was pushed below $80,000 by the non-farm payrolls, yet ZEC surged above $1,000. It looks like a win for the privacy narrative, but the ones really pushing the price might be the shorts themselves.
In the past 24 hours, ZEC rose about 20% at one point, with approximately $36.6 million in leveraged positions liquidated, of which $34.5 million came from shorts. When shorts get liquidated, they have to buy back, and the higher the price rises, the more urgent the covering becomes, creating a self-fueling machine.
Grayscale's Zcash product moved to NYSE Arca trading in late August, indeed opening another door for traditional capital; but "having institutional channels" and "all price increases are fundamentally supported" are not the same thing. A nearly 94% rise in a month and an open interest of about $2.3 billion indicate the chips are already hot.
I interpret this wave as institutions entering, the privacy narrative, and a short squeeze all pressing the gas pedal simultaneously. As soon as one lets up, the price could revert faster than it rose.
#ZEC #PrivacyCoin
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. 🚨 Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, but BTC should be cautious
Last night, US August nonfarm payrolls:
New jobs 162,000, far exceeding the expected 53,000.
Unemployment rate 4.1%, the job market still looks strong.
But what really deserves attention is——
Wage growth continues to slow down.
Strong employment ≠ inflation out of control again.
This is also the most awkward spot for the Fed right now:
The economy hasn’t clearly entered a recession, but there isn’t enough reason to cut rates either.
🇺🇸 So what I’m most focused on now is US Treasuries.
After the nonfarm report, US Treasury yields rose, and market expectations for rate cuts cooled down.
And for high-valuation risk assets like BTC and QQQ, the biggest fear is:
Yields ↑ → liquidity expectations ↓ → valuation under pressure
🟠 $BTC
I’m still bearish at the moment.
If $80K can’t be firmly reclaimed, this looks more like a rebound rather than a new major rally.
📈 $QQQ
Tech fundamentals aren’t bad, but high valuations combined with high interest rates make short-term value mediocre.
No chasing, wait for a pullback.
🟡 Gold $XAU
Short term will be pressured by rising yields, but the US fiscal deficit and Treasury supply issues haven’t disappeared.
So I remain long-term bullish on gold.
In a nutshell:
Nonfarm is strong, but what really determines the market isn’t the nonfarm itself.
It’s what happens next:
10Y US Treasury + DXY + Fed rate cut expectations
That’s what matters.
#BTC #QQQ #XAU #Nonfarm #FedYesterday's 80K breakout was pushed back by a strong non-farm payrolls report, so we can't say "the bulls have taken control" yet; but with ETFs absorbing $730 million in one day, it also means we shouldn't blindly short near 79K. The only truly valuable trades ahead are two: confirm holding near 78K and go long, or break below 78K plus US Treasury yields breaking above 4.8% and then short. Stay light in the middle range. These days, we've been watching the candlestick chart for a BTC breakout, but Trump, the king of understanding across the ocean, is probably also worried about another line—US diesel prices.
Just saw the news: the average retail price of diesel in the US has surpassed $5.85 per gallon, setting a new all-time high. This isn't refueling at all—it's like pouring Moutai into the tank.
1. Diesel is the lifeblood of the real economy. Farm harvesters are needed, logistics trucks are used, and factory generators are needed. Now diesel costs are rising, and the USDA estimates farmers will pay 30% more next year. What does this mean? It means that in the future, even eating a burger or buying a package in the US will have to go up in price. What are we most afraid of when trading cryptocurrencies? Isn't it just that inflation won't come down, and the Fed is making excuses not to cut rates again?
2. When Trump first took office, he confidently declared he would lower energy prices and reduce living costs. But now, less than two months before the midterm elections, diesel prices have skyrocketed, rising 56% since the conflict began. If this energy boomerang really disrupts Trump's midterm election rhythm, the U.S. policy expectations may change again, and the market fears uncertainty the most.
3. Middle Eastern refineries damaged, Russia is under surprise attack, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked again. The current situation is: no oil if you want to lower prices, too slow to build new plants. In October, you will have to face both autumn harvest and winter heating. This supply-demand mismatch has only fueled inflation.
Don't just look at these fluctuations in the crypto world—a macro oil price tax is already underway. If energy prices drive inflation,非农数据出来的那一刻，我盯着屏幕，账户绿得我都不想截屏。 有多少人跟我一样，打开APP前要先深吸一口气？ 8月非农16.2万，预期只有6.5万，超出一倍多，失业率稳在4.1%。之前市场还悄悄盼着"就业弱一点，降息快一点"，这一下全落空了。降息概率从33%被直接推到67%，美债收益率全面上行，BTC应声下坠。 说实话，亏钱不是最难受的，最难受的是不知道这轮阴跌什么时候到头。每天心里都默念"差不多了吧"，第二天醒来又是一根新低。这种慢性磨损比瀑布式暴跌更消耗人，暴跌至少一刀给个痛快，阴跌是每天醒来都看到红色在拉长。 但我还没割。不是死扛，是觉得走到这步了，再往前走走看。 - AXTI的核心逻辑没有被破坏，我还在等它的清算价触发 - USELESS的空单清算位在0.299，没到之前我不想用情绪做决定 - 如果真有一天跌破了，那就认。但在那之前，我想让仓位管理替我说话 盘面上有个细节很多人没注意：这波下跌不是全面踩踏，是资金在悄悄换方向。BTC在跌，但部分山寨的跌幅在收窄，说明有资金在试探性接盘，只是量还不够形成反转。市场真正在交易的，不是"降息有没有"，而是"降息还有多远"。预期被重新定价的#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% The pressure on the crypto world is still huge!
Hamak came out hawkish again today, saying "It's time to take action now," inflation is too high, policy isn't tight enough, it's time to act. The 162,000 nonfarm payrolls have completely shattered the narrative of cooling employment, pushing the September rate hike probability directly from 50% to 58.6%. The market is no longer debating whether to raise rates, but how much to raise.
Oil prices rose 7.6% this week, diesel crack spreads remain high, inflationary pressure is far from being contained. Employment data has cleared the biggest obstacle to rate hikes, and market logic has shifted from "bad news is good news" to "good news is bad news." Gold has dropped over 2%, BTC has fallen below 80,000.
The final verdict will come with next Thursday's CPI. Bloomberg expects core CPI year-on-year to drop to 2.4%, but oil prices remain high; if it exceeds expectations, the September rate hike will be locked in. Bottom fishing now is like catching a flying knife; better to wait for the CPI release. Hang in there. $BTC $XAUT @OKX星球 $BTC major top basically confirmed! Deep correction expected to 38000 in Q4
Currently around 81000, the BTC wave C rebound in this cycle is very likely completely finished!
From the bull and bear cycle perspective, historical full bear market drops generally exceed 75%. This cycle dropped from 126000 to 57000, only a 55% drop, just halving once, not a full plunge, so there must be another deep downward wave later.
Technically, 57000-83000 is a standard Fibonacci retracement, representing an ABC corrective rebound within a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
Combined with the strong long-term trendline resistance from 2021, the ultimate major cycle support is locked at 38000.
At this stage, the risk at high levels is extremely high. This wave is just a bear market breather, not the start of a bull market. A large-scale downtrend is imminent, so be sure to control positions and avoid risks!
⚠️For personal technical analysis only, not investment advice
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Spot ETF data on September 1 showed BTC experiencing a net outflow of about $236 million, while ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to record positive inflows. By September 2, BTC had attracted another $100 million in funds, while ETH, SOL, and XRP turned to outflows. What does this indicate? Institutional funds have not continuously placed one-way bets on BTC, nor have they formed stable, comprehensive rotation. More like: 🔄 BTC → ETH → SOL → XRP 🔄 funds are rapidly seeking opportunities among different assets. But I will not declare the Altseason has already started because of this. What truly matters is whether other mainstream assets continue to take over BTC capital outflows; And whether ETH, SOL, and XRP can remain relatively strong when BTC attracts funds again. Additionally, the market has recently been affected by macro risks. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran, rising oil prices, and the Fed's cautious stance on inflation and interest rates may continue to affect the allocation of funds in risk assets. So next, my focus is not on: ❌ BTC rising or falling ❌ today, or which altcoin will rally first, but rather: Is the capital leaving the crypto market, or is it simply shifting from BTC to other highly volatile assets? If this divergence continues, the next round of opportunities may no longer be decided solely by BTC, but by the ecosystem and sectors where funds are truly flowing in. Funds will not disappear into thin air; they will only seek the next more worthwhile direction for allocation 📊 $BTC $ETH $Last night's nonfarm payroll data was ridiculously strong—actual increase of 162,000 versus an expected 56,000. This huge gap directly caused the market to reprice rate hikes. Now the probability of a rate hike in September has jumped to 60%, completely disrupting previous expectations of a rate cut.
Bitcoin's reaction was typical: when the data first came out, the price surged to 81,400, looking like it was about to break through, but as rate hike expectations tightened, the futures contracts couldn't hold and were hammered down to 78,700. Although it has bounced back to around 79,700 now, it's clear that bulls and bears are probing each other. Actually, the day before, ETFs saw inflows of over 700 million USD, indicating strong spot buying power, but the macro sentiment shift hit the futures market first.
Don't rush to trade. For those wanting to go long, at least wait for the price to firmly hold above 80,000, preferably surpassing the previous high of 81,400; otherwise, it's just a fake rebound. For shorts, don't chase around 79,000—it's too sensitive a level, and if it doesn't break down, a rebound is likely. If you really want to short, wait for a decisive break below 78,700, then consider it again if the rebound fails to hold; the odds will be much better.
Also, a reminder: weekend liquidity is thin, so avoid high leverage on contracts; double-sided liquidation is common. Right now, just wait for clear signals and don't bet on direction. Investing carries risks; weigh carefully yourself.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% The Real Support Behind the RWA Narrative
The total tokenized real asset scale in the Arbitrum ecosystem has surpassed $1 billion, with over 2,000 assets, ranking first in the entire industry. The cumulative on-chain transaction count over six months has reached 478 million, with stablecoin monthly transfer volume exceeding $7 billion. All data comes from real on-chain settlements, not fake trading volumes driven by pure hype.
During the same period, the entire RWA sector is also in a phase of rapid expansion. By the first half of 2026, the total on-chain tokenized real asset scale excluding stablecoins has climbed to $34 billion. As the core chain supporting this sector, Arbitrum directly benefits from the industry's growth dividends.
#全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 Risks That Cannot Be Ignored
The current RSI indicator has reached 83.6, indicating a severe overbought zone with significant short-term correction pressure.
Early high trading volumes on Robinhood Chain largely came from trading bots and Meme coin launchpads, not from officially promoted tokenized equity trading, showing clear signs of inflated data. Whether real RWA trading volume can be sustained remains doubtful.
On September 23, a large token unlock will occur, totaling 139.2 million ARB, equivalent to about $15.2 million at the current price, accounting for 1.4% of the total supply. Short-term selling pressure cannot be ignored. #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $BTC Federal Reserve officials say rate hikes are necessary, with the probability for September rising to 58.6%
Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed hawkish views, believing that inflation stickiness has not yet been eliminated and supporting further rate hikes to suppress prices. As a result, interest rate futures have pushed the probability of a September rate hike up to 58.6%. A rate hike has become a high-probability option, but it is not yet an absolute certainty.
Strong employment data combined with hawkish statements from officials have further reinforced market concerns about inflation volatility. However, internal divisions remain, with some board members insisting on waiting for the final August CPI results and refusing to implement a rate hike solely based on overheating employment. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields have risen again, the dollar has strengthened, and gold, crypto assets, and high-valuation tech stocks are all under pressure as the market has already priced in tightening risks.
It is important to note that the 58.6% probability only represents market pricing, not the final decision. If the upcoming CPI shows a clear cooling, rate hike expectations will quickly recede. At this stage, the market is in a critical game window; do not directly bet on the outcome. Inflation data is the key variable to break the deadlock.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% BTC has climbed back above 80,000, but the flow of funds is telling a different story.
The coin price returned to 81,400, seemingly signaling a revival in risk appetite. However, the ETF data from September 2 is intriguing: BTC saw a net inflow of $101 million, while ETH, SOL, and XRP ETFs all experienced net outflows.
This is not an exit, but a selective bet.
---
82.8K is a short-term watershed. A breakout with volume confirms the structure; resistance and a pullback mean this round is still a liquidity-driven rebound.
The premise for the altcoin season is that the leader must first hold firm.
ETH needs to regain relative strength; SOL, XRP, and BNB can no longer rely on single-day pulses. Among the mid-tier, I’m more focused on SUI, APT, AVAX, NEAR, and SEI—they are the true thermometers of risk rotation.
Simultaneously observe the DeFi layer: if AAVE, UNI, CRV, and PENDLE outperform during on-chain activity, it indicates funds are starting to spill over. LINK and ONDO reflect expectations for RWA and institutional infrastructure.
---
The current fundamental signal remains unchanged: BTC concentrates the strongest institutional liquidity, but the market has yet to prove that funds will spread evenly.
The question is not whether BTC can rise, but whether altcoins will follow and confirm at the 82.8K test or continue to lag behind.
This determines whether we are facing the start of a new cycle or just another localized rebound.
$BTC $ETH
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Anonymous privacy coin $ZEC, after its rally, the funds will most likely rotate to $ZEN. Historically, ZEC peaks first, then $DASH and ZEN follow, with the one having the lower valuation ultimately benefiting from the main rise.
ZEN is not a post-attached mixing plugin. It inherits zk-SNARKs from the same source as Zcash, later proactively shutting down the main chain shield pool and migrating to Base to become L3, turning privacy into an application-layer capability: private swaps, cross-chain This sharp rally of DASH (breaking 50 on 9/3, touching 64.7 on 9/5, +38% in 24h) is not an isolated event; it is a convergence of privacy coin rotation, its own upgrades, and a short squeeze in a shallow market:
① Privacy sector resonance: Grayscale defines ZEC as a “privacy asset for the AI era.” ZEC breaking 1000 drives XMR/DASH to follow, with funds rushing to the “on-chain privacy” narrative before regulatory tightening;
② Dash’s own catalysts: Evolution mainnet Shielded Transactions (integrating Zcash Orchard technology) launched + Dash Platform v1.1 activated + DashCon Amsterdam event, repositioning from an “old payment coin” to a privacy + dApp platform;
③ Shallow market short covering: Only 12.8 million circulating, thin liquidity, 24h volume up 322% to 440 million, shorts squeezed, daily RSI at 81.5 extremely overbought.
Essentially, this is narrative repair + low liquidity short squeeze, not a completed fundamental revaluation. Holding steady at 58–62 targets 70–75; falling below 47 invalidates the structure. $DASH 1. S&P Index Adjustment, Inclusion in S&P 100 Index Companies Announce Quarterly Rebalancing, SanDisk Included in the S&P 100, Effective September 21. Passive funds tracking the index must buy allocations going forward, with funds moving ahead of time, serving as an important short-term catalyst. 2. Storage Sector Riots Collectively, AI Computing Power Drives NAND Flash Demand Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face sparks market expectations for continued expansion of AI infrastructure, further boosting demand for enterprise SSDs and NAND flash in AI servers. The entire storage chain surged in tandem: SanDisk +11.9%, SK Hynix +8%, Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital all strengthened, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.4%, while the overall nonfarm payroll data was negative, while storage hardware broke out of independent rally. 3. Institutions raise target prices + company buyback sentiment supports the bottom. Lynx Research has set a $2,450 target price; The company has a $14 billion stock buyback plan, and combined with quarterly earnings that significantly beat expectations, revenue has grown significantly year-on-year, strengthening bullish confidence. 4. Industry Fundamentals: NAND supply and demand are tight, contract prices continue to rise. OEM capacity is prioritized for AI server storage, consumer supply is shrinking, contract prices remain upward, and market trading and storage are driven by a super-cycle logic. Additionally, low liquidity over the weekend means that small amounts of capital can influence trends, amplifying emotional trading and making contracts more prone to insertion and premium $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美联储官员称应加Trump spoke again today, and this time it wasn't just a simple call for rate cuts.
He said: "Growth does not lead to inflation."
For the past 25 years, the entire framework of the Federal Reserve has been built on an ironclad rule — when the economy grows fast, inflation will come, so interest rates must be raised in advance to "kill" it. This is called the Phillips curve, something every first-year economics student has to memorize.
Trump said: Wrong. All wrong.
He specifically mentioned a point in time — "It was like this until 25 years ago."
What year was 25 years ago? 2001.
The end of the Greenspan era, the watershed moment when the Volcker-style anti-inflation framework was established.
Who is Volcker? The person in the 1980s who pushed interest rates up to 20% and forcibly crushed double-digit inflation. Since then, "preemptive anti-inflation" has become the DNA of the Fed — whenever the economy improves, rates are raised regardless of whether inflation has appeared.
What Trump is saying: This 25-year-old game rule should be scrapped.
Trump's exact words: "For every one percentage point increase in interest rates, the U.S. bears a cost of $650 billion annually."
Note, when he spoke on June 24, this figure was $800 billion.
From $800 billion down to $650 billion — the White House economic team is doing precise calculations. They are using internal models to estimate the baseline interest rate path, not just shouting slogans.
This means the Trump administration has a quantitative estimate of the impact of rate cuts and is waiting for the "most cost-effective" timing to act.
If Trump really reshapes the Fed's framework —
In a long-term low interest rate environment, Bitcoin's holding cost as a "non-interest-bearing asset" is permanently reduced.
In recent years, Bitcoin has fluctuated up and down, with everyone watching ETF inflows and outflows, and option expirations. But the real underlying logic is: where is the money most cost-effective to put.
If interest rates stay low for a long time, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin drops to zero. At that point, Bitcoin is no longer a "risk asset" — it becomes a substitute for zero-coupon bonds.
Trump also said another thing today: if the Fed does not cut rates, he will cut off trade with countries that have trade deficits.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately surged to 4.79%, a one-year high.
The market is telling him: We don't buy it.
He wants low rates, but the bond market is pushing rates higher. He wants to reshape the paradigm, but the market says "You don't decide."🤔 With such strong non-farm payrolls, why didn't the US stock market crash, and why did BTC falter first?
To be honest, this scene is indeed a bit unexpected.
August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, and the probability of a rate hike in September quickly rose from about 49% the day before to nearly 60%. Logically, liquidity expectations tighten, and high-valuation assets should all be under pressure.
But the result showed a clear divergence:
$BTC directly fell below 80,000
The three major US stock indices only closed slightly lower, and some tech and AI stocks remained strong.
Why?
Because the market is no longer simply trading on "rate hike = crash," but on whether the economy is strong enough to support corporate profits.
US stocks have earnings, cash flow, and AI growth expectations, which can partially offset interest rate pressure; BTC is more sensitive to global liquidity and risk appetite, so it reflects interest rate repricing immediately.
⚠️ But what I really worry about is the next step.
If next week's CPI and PPI continue to exceed expectations, it won't be just a non-farm shock, but the market starting to continuously confirm that "high interest rates may persist."
At that time, whether high-valuation assets can continue to hold up will be the real test.
So I remain cautious now.
Non-farm payrolls are just the first card; CPI is the second card that will decide whether the market can continue to hold.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 This SanDisk has hit the stop loss; my efforts in September were in vain.
SanDisk surged from $40 all the way to a historical high of $2354, an increase of over 5700%, with its market cap swelling to over 230 billion. The current price is fluctuating around $1650, and $1888 is right at the upper edge of the high-level chip concentration zone, marking the limit of the rebound, not the starting point of a breakout. Morningstar has set SanDisk's fair value at $1000, meaning the current valuation premium is as high as 63%.
Technically, triple resistance.
On the daily level, RSI has been under continuous pressure after peaking. When it previously surged to $1750, a short squeeze structure was formed, with a large accumulation of new short positions and chasing long positions at the high level, making the chip structure extremely fragile. Currently, there is a dense accumulation of short positions at the high level, creating strong resistance and locking the rebound height tightly.
Fundamentally, signs of a cycle peak.
Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, but about two-thirds of this came from price increases, with only one-third from shipment volume growth. Jefferies clearly pointed out that the NAND average price increase has sharply dropped from 33% to about 8%, indicating that the fastest phase of profit growth is behind.
$1888 short position strategy.
Enter directly near $1888, stop loss above $1950. The first target is $1700 to $1720; if broken, look at $1650, with the ultimate target at $1500. Position size controlled between 10% to 15%, leverage not exceeding 3x. It's not shameful to admit defeat if the direction is wrong; only stubbornly holding on is shameful. That's all from Brother Ci, think it over. #闪迪涨近12%，NAND涨价放缓，产能却加码 $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk had a big bullish candlestick, probably pulling back the sentiment of many people. When it was falling earlier, there was worry that storage had peaked; now with nearly a 12% rise in one day, people are again conflicted: did they sell out of the bull market halfway? On September 4th during U.S. stock trading, SanDisk surged nearly 12%, and the storage sector also strengthened. But my understanding of this rise is that enterprise storage demand is still holding up, and the market is willing to continue valuing it; as for whether the entire storage industry can enter another round of broad gains, it's too early to conclude now. Looking at SanDisk's last financial report, you can see the stock price has solid backing, and the concerns have their basis. In Q4 of fiscal year 2026, revenue was $8.97 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase. The company disclosed that about one-third of this revenue growth came from volume, and two-thirds from price increases. This is interesting. Earlier profit growth was rapid, with price hikes playing a big role; to maintain the same growth rate going forward, prices can't be loosened too early, or more goods need to be sold. Simply saying "AI demand is still there" doesn't answer how much profit can still grow. Currently, the change is that customers are starting to push back on prices. TrendForce pointed out in its enterprise SSD report at the end of July that supply improvements and buyer resistance to costs have already narrowed contract price increases. By the market briefing on September 2nd, server and AI demand remain strong, but consumer spot trading is weak. In other words, supplying data centers and selling storage to ordinary consumers can no longer be judged in the same basket. If it's expensive, buy a little less; if it can be replaced later, delay replacement—this is the reaction everyone🌅 Good afternoon, brothers! Those who survived last night's nonfarm payrolls are truly tough.
After that baptism last night, today's market is noticeably calmer.
$BTC is oscillating around 77,000–78,000, $ETH has returned to about 2,420, and $SOL is retesting around 100. There was no crazy spike like at midnight; volatility has clearly narrowed, and the market has entered a brief "breathing period."
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations, which directly disrupted the previous rate cut trades. After leveraged longs were concentratedly liquidated, market sentiment also cooled significantly.
But the most important thing now is not how much it rebounds, but—what's the next card?
The answer is the September 11 CPI.
⚠️ After the nonfarm payrolls, rate expectations have turned hawkish again, and short-term risk appetite is suppressed. So I prefer to interpret this sideways movement as consolidation after a sharp drop, rather than a trend reversal.
📌 My approach remains simple:
Light positions, minimal moves, no bottom guessing.
Before the CPI release, no chasing breakouts, no catching falling knives. Wait for the data to truly land, then judge whether this pullback is deleveraging or the start of a weakening trend.
There are opportunities every day, but you only have one principal.
Surviving is more important than guessing right once. 🔥
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债
The world's most stable money is starting to find U.S. Treasuries "not attractive" anymore
Norway's GPFG (managing $2.3 trillion, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund) sent a letter to the Treasury: government bond weight to drop from 70% to 50%, cutting U.S. Treasury exposure by 12.2 percentage points, nearly $80 billion to be reallocated.
The key is not the $80 billion itself, but "who" is selling—
These people have done only one thing for 60 years: avoid mistakes. Even they think U.S. Treasuries are not cost-effective and are shifting to buy Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae MBS (earning higher spreads), which is a stronger signal than the amount.
How does this translate to crypto? Three points:
1️⃣ If U.S. Treasuries are sold off and yields remain high, the opportunity cost of the zero-yield asset BTC stays elevated;
2️⃣ But "reducing U.S. Treasuries ≠ reducing the dollar," GPFG says the dollar exposure remains unchanged, so this is not a crash narrative;
3️⃣ The actual implementation will wait until the spring 2027 parliament decision; this is currently a "directional vote."
My interpretation:
In the short term, don’t use this news to shout "BTC will surge"—it pressures long-term interest rate expectations;
In the medium term, it actually favors a revaluation of "non-U.S. assets," with gold/resources/some alt narratives having potential.
Positioning: reduce leverage first, wait for the 10Y U.S. Treasury to react before moving. The safest approach is still to scale in, not to bet on a single candlestick.After analyzing six years of Bitcoin data,
the nonfarm payroll report has little impact on the price.
Data from the past 6 years shows that on nonfarm payroll announcement days, Bitcoin's average volatility is only 2.1%, with price direction equally split between up and down, basically like flipping a coin.
Nonfarm payrolls do not directly determine Bitcoin's price; their real effect is only to change market expectations about Federal Reserve rate cuts.
But every announcement day, the crypto community stirs things up because what the market really needs is never the data itself, but a hype to create volatility.
Whales and market makers aim to use the anxiety retail traders have about macro events in the few minutes before and after the data release to trigger rapid two-way leveraged liquidations.
Once your stop-loss and chasing orders are all liquidated, the market quietly crashes back to its original position.
Most leveraged traders are just paying fees and providing liquidity to market makers.
For big players, the nonfarm data is meaningless; liquidity depth and concentration of chips are the core factors.🔥$ETH L2 is busy to the max, mainnet is saving gas, staking queue is like a popular restaurant with a 36-day wait
Newcomers looking at Ethereum are easily fooled by the "busy ecosystem" narrative. Let's laugh first at three sets of data:
First, L2 is very busy, mainnet doesn't burn much. Pectra's blob target is 6, max 9; Rollup data uses blob instead of regular calldata, so base fees are naturally lower; In September, the 3-day average blob was 5.9, daily average 6.7, setting records but still not filling capacity. There's ongoing discussion to raise the target to 21, max 32. The result is "L2 handles transactions, mainnet saves gas": users pay a few cents, ETH mainnet burning is like a company printing paper quotas—everyone uses e-invoices, but the boss doesn't get the utility bills. If you want to understand deflation, don't just look at TPS; look at L1 high-value settlement + actual L1 burn volume.
Second, staking is like queuing for onboarding. Around 42.6 million ETH staked in September, accounting for 34.9% of circulation; 2.07 million in the queue, waiting about 36 days; exit queue is zero. Pectra raised the single validator limit from 32 to 2048 and added auto-compounding. Institutions "rebalancing" also have to queue; it's not just new money flooding in. A long queue ≠ immediate lock-up price surge; it's more about tech + enterprise treasuries building validators.
Third, DeFi and RWA are quietly working. L1 DeFi TVL, Uniswap/Aave, tokenized US Treasuries are all running, but value flows back to ETH mainly through L1 settlement fees, L2 data fees, and staking demand—not just the phrase "Ethereum is busy." #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债
Here comes another blow to U.S. Treasuries.
For the crypto community, this has three layers of impact.
First, the "risk-free" halo of U.S. Treasuries is fading. Norway isn't the only one thinking this way—Japan is reducing holdings, China is reducing holdings, and now the world's largest sovereign wealth fund is also cutting back. The higher the risk-free yield, the less attractive risk assets become.
Second, the loosening of U.S. dollar credit is accelerating. Norway's money hasn't left the U.S.; it just shifted from Treasuries to MBS. But even U.S. government-backed Treasuries are no longer considered attractive enough, prompting a search for some "risk premium." When these marginal changes accumulate, they form a trend.
Third, a long-term positive for Bitcoin. Since Treasuries are no longer the safest haven, capital will seek other outlets. Gold has already risen, and BTC is moving toward becoming a "hard currency." This process is slow but irreversible.
In the short term, this doesn't directly affect Bitcoin, but the direction is clear—the world's largest sovereign wealth fund is reassessing the cost-effectiveness of U.S. Treasuries. When even the most conservative money starts to find Treasuries less attractive, it means the anchor of global asset pricing is loosening. For BTC, this reinforces a fundamental underlying logic.
$BTC $ETH Volatility and Sharpe: Risk-Adjusted $BTC Still Leading
7-day volatility: $BTC 48.5%, $ETH 51.8% — $ETH is more volatile but yields lower returns, a typical high-risk, low-return scenario. Sharpe ratio: $BTC 3.21 vs. $ETH 1.92, a nearly 67% gap.
Funding rates: $BTC daily average 0.0066%, $ETH daily average 0.0047% — both are low, indicating no market frenzy, but $BTC's slightly higher rate suggests stronger bullish sentiment.
Capital attraction: Smart money chooses $BTC
OI cumulative net inflow is the core difference in this round of PK. $BTC 7-day net inflow +171 million U, $ETH net outflow 248 million U — a difference of 419 million U between inflow and outflow.
Especially on 9/4, $BTC OI surged by 835 million U, while $ETH only increased by 267 million U, showing that chasing money is flocking to $BTC; on 9/5 both saw outflows but $BTC outflowed 565 million U and $ETH 266 million U, with $BTC's entry and exit scale larger, indicating that the main force is driving the $BTC market. $ZEC is trading around $1,018, continuing to outperform much of the crypto market. After reaching roughly $1,045–$1,050, the price cooled slightly, but buyers are still defending the higher range. The recent breakout above $1,000 has been supported by growing interest in the U.S. Zcash ETF, while a major short squeeze added further momentum. Reports indicate that more than $34M in ZEC short positions were liquidated during the breakout. 📊 Key levels to watch: - 🔴 Resistance: $1,045–$1,055 - 🟡On September 16th, the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates!! Regardless of whether the current probability is 50% or 60%, I say no rate hike, and that means no rate hike.
Non-farm payrolls came in at 162,000, three times the expectation, pushing the rate hike probability from 40% back up to 55%. The whole internet is panicking again, saying "It definitely will hike" and "$BTC is going to drop to 70,000." Let me pour cold water on that — it won't hike.
Why am I so sure? Six reasons. First, Waller has made the harshest verbal attacks but has never explicitly said there will be a rate hike in September. Words are words, actions are actions, two different things. Second, there are no strong new signals in Beige Book, indicating internal consensus does not support a rate hike. Third, although inflation hasn't dropped to 2%, the direction is correct and it's not out of control. Fourth, one month of better-than-expected employment data means little; the average over the past 12 months is only 31,000, so 162,000 in one month looks more like an outlier. Fifth, the Iran situation is still evolving, economic uncertainty is high, and hiking rates now would be like adding fuel to the fire. Sixth, Waller is the new chair, and hiking at his first major meeting is too risky; stability is the priority.
Putting these six reasons together, the probability of a rate hike is less than 30%. The market currently prices it at 55%, which is an overreaction. When there's an overreaction, that's an opportunity.
Build positions in batches below 79,000, buy more as it falls. On the evening of September 16th, when the shoe drops, no rate hike means all the good news is out and the market will rally directly; if it hikes, all the bad news is out and there will be a rebound rally. Either way, it goes up.
No rate hike on the evening of September 16th!! Remember to come back and like!!
#FOMC #RateHike #Waller #TimeTravelerRobinhood Chain DEX daily trading volume historically surpasses 3 billion USD for the first time
Among them, Uniswap v2 + v3 + v4 account for over 98%
Driven by Robinhood crypto stocks and Meme market trends, UNI daily burn historically exceeds 1 million USD for the first time, with Robinhood Chain contributing over 850,000 USD
Corresponding coin-denominated daily burn is 170,000 UNI, setting the second highest historical level, with Robinhood Chain burning 136,000 UNI#The world's largest sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce $80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings
The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Norwegian Sovereign Fund, is reportedly planning a major portfolio adjustment, intending to significantly reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings, with an estimated reduction close to $80 billion, reallocating funds to corporate bonds and other fixed income categories.
My personal view: Compared to the actual amount sold, the signal significance of this event far outweighs the short-term impact.
This indicates that large sovereign institutions are beginning to reassess the "risk-free asset" status of U.S. Treasuries, further confirming the global trend of reserve diversification, which is positive for long-term narratives of credit-risk-resistant assets like gold and Bitcoin.
However, do not take this as a blind buy signal.
The plan is still a proposal and has not been implemented yet, so it will not immediately cause a sell-off. If U.S. Treasuries face sustained selling and long-term yields rise, it could suppress risk assets and bring short-term volatility pressure to $BTC and $ETH.
Currently, with the non-farm payrolls approaching, the macroeconomic logic is complex. Changes in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar are slow variables; short-term market trends are still dominated by employment data and Federal Reserve expectations. This news should only be used as supplementary reference and not directly for trading decisions.
In practice, continue to hold core spot assets as a base position; strictly control leverage in contracts, focus on the linkage between U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, and avoid trading driven by a single news event. I was expecting the stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report to hit risk assets hard, but BTC barely flinched. After the initial volatility, $BTC quickly recovered and pushed back toward the $79,000 area. Meanwhile, $ETH is holding above $2,400, $ZEC remains one of the strongest movers, and $USELESS continues to show aggressive momentum. Normally, hotter employment data should reduce expectations for near-term Fed easing and create pressure on crypto. But the market is sending a different messageNo US stocks, no ETF flows, institutional absence on the weekend: only crypto-native funds remain. Volatility converges, but major stop orders spike (9/4 low $78,628)
9/6 HYPE unlocks about 9.92 million tokens (about $800 million)
The real test over the weekend is whether the $78,628 low from 9/4 holds. Holding means a pullback confirmation; breaking it points to $77,307 (10-day low).
Nonfarm payrolls caused BTC and ETH to drop 3% and shake out, which has been digested
(Deviation: much better than expected +162K vs expected +55K = 2.9 times higher and exceeding the upper prediction range (+121K)
Data within expectations usually means volatility <1%. The more it exceeds expectations, the harsher the drop)
If a 25bp rate hike is already priced in with over 60% probability, and the dot plot shows "one hike then pause" — bad news is fully priced, BTC rebounds
August CPI must wait until 9/11, 20:30 to see.
Market consensus: core month-over-month +0.2%, core year-over-year 2.4%, overall year-over-year 3.5%. Deutsche Bank is more specific: overall +0.38%, core +0.21%. (This 9/11 figure will decide the 9/16 FOMC)
How much will oil prices, housing, commodities, and prices deviate from expectations?
The following model is not investment advice (Wall Street capital future trends)
$BTC $ETH Last night's US non-farm payroll data looks quite intimidating at first glance, with 162,000 new jobs added, while the market had previously expected only about 56,000, and the unemployment rate remained basically unchanged at 4.1%; But, the year-on-year wage growth dropped from 3.2% in July to 3.1%, and the number of long-term unemployed continues to rise. So this data reveals that employment hasn't collapsed, but inflation risks have not disappeared, which is why the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September again, and $BTC immediately fell below $80,000.
Ajian believes that more worth studying than the better-than-expected numbers themselves is that under these circumstances, the US stock market did not experience a particularly sharp crash, and the semiconductor sector like $SNDK performed surprisingly well. It seems prices have already priced in some of the bad news in advance, and capital is still willing to give AI and semiconductors high valuations. It remains to be seen whether high interest rates can still accommodate such high AI valuations.
What really matters next is not to keep debating whether the non-farm data is bullish or bearish, but just to focus on these three things: employment, inflation, and oil prices.
If employment is strong and inflation is weak, the market may reprice a soft landing;
If employment is strong and inflation is also strong, the Fed faces the greatest pressure;
If employment suddenly weakens and inflation also declines, rate cut trades may return;
If employment is weak but inflation rises due to energy prices, that is the most troublesome scenario, because then the Fed faces a worsening economy but prices are not cooperating.
A single data point can only tell you what happened at the moment; only by looking at it together with other variables can you truly see the market direction.Signals from $BTC and $ETH holdings
The net inflow of OI is interesting: On 9/4, 835 million U was poured in a single day, marking the largest single-day inflow in 7 days — these people entered at the $81,000 high. As a result, on 9/5, 565 million U ran out, a typical "buying high, getting trapped, cutting losses and running" scenario. However, looking at the cumulative data, the 7-day net inflow is +171 million U, indicating an overall net long position.
Looking at the funding rate, the rate dropping to 0.001% indicates the market is not overheated; the leveraged longs chasing highs have exited, leaving mainly spot and low-leverage funds. In this environment, the probability of a rebound is greater than a continued drop.
The $BTC spot ETF is solid, with a cumulative net inflow of 1.92 billion USD from August 20 to September 2, and over 3 billion USD poured in over the past 30 days. The smart money hasn't fled; those leaving are all panic sellers among retail investors. Last night’s NFP crushed expectations, pushing back hopes for a September Fed pause. $BTC briefly broke $82K before falling toward $80K. The market is now caught between strong ETF flows and rising rate expectations from jobs data, oil, and Treasury yields. NFP: 162K jobs vs. 56K expected, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%. September rate-hike odds climbed near 58%. The move was straightforward: Dovish Waller → yields fall → $BTC breaks $80K → shorts squeeze → strong NFP → rate odds rise → $BTIn August, $BTC experienced a strong bullish rally, with a maximum monthly increase of over 24%, marking the best monthly performance since 2017. The price once surged to a three-month high near $81,455.
At the beginning of September, influenced by Federal Reserve officials' remarks, the market saw short-term profit-taking. Approximately $138 million worth of long Bitcoin leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, causing the price to quickly fall back to around $77,000.
On September 4, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above the $81,000 mark, with a single-day increase of about 4%, mainly supported by the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and a 0.7% weakening of the US dollar index.
🔍 Current core market characteristics
Digital gold attribute strengthened: The 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold climbed to a nearly six-year peak, and the 30-day correlation coefficient reached a yearly high of 0.8. Meanwhile, the correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index dropped to a one-year low, gradually detaching from the pricing logic of highly volatile tech growth stocks. The asset's role as a hedge against dollar depreciation continues to stand out.
Pricing power shifting to institutions: The market is transitioning from the traditional four-year halving cycle to a Wall Street-led 6-8 year long-cycle paradigm. Institutions have accumulated over 2.7 million Bitcoins through spot ETFs and other channels, a scale more than 16 times the annual miner production. The marginal impact of new miner supply on the market has significantly weakened.
Capital support remains: The US Bitcoin spot ETF previously set a record of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, with cumulative inflows exceeding $3 billion. The continuous return of institutional funds is the core support force for the current market. Cobie proposed the "K-shaped crypto": the industry has unprecedented success, but the assets accessible to ordinary people have not reflected this. The upper half indeed has support, with stablecoin circulation around 311.5 billion, and on-chain settlements and prediction markets still expanding; what is overlooked is the cause of the lower half, where growth mostly settles into private equity and fees, rather than token value capture. $BTC 79542, 24h -1.9%, total market cap 2.69 trillion, BTC dominance 59.3%, funds have not spilled over, just become more concentrated. The risk of the K-shaped narrative lies in indefinitely defending tokens underperforming: if usage does not convert to cash flow for token holders within three years, it is not a mismatch but that these tokens simply do not participate in distribution. I lean toward the latter, expecting altcoins to continue weakening relative to BTC in the next quarter. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. The late-session rally is quite intriguing; over 2 billion flowed northbound in the last half hour, forcibly pulling the market from the red into the green.
But looking closely at the intraday chart, the rally is on shrinking volume, more like short covering rather than genuine buying with real money.
In sectors, AI is reviving again, but with a new batch of leaders driving the gains; the old leaders clearly can’t keep up, and funds are playing a high-low rotation.
$DOGE is strangely restless today; a few big influencers on Twitter are making signals again—purely emotional speculation without fundamental support.
On the macro side, there are Fed officials speaking tonight, and the market is waiting for cues, so no one dared to bet heavily during the day.
My move today was to reduce some positions on rallies; I don’t plan to follow this sneak attack at the close.
If it opens high tomorrow,
there’s a high chance it will fall again, so don’t let a single bullish candle change your conviction.
Right now, patience is more precious than gold; wait for a real directional breakout before striking hard.The most striking aspect of Broadcom's earnings report is that it has moved AI from a "story" to "revenue collection."
Both revenue and cash flow are solid, AI semiconductor income continues to explode, and Snowflake has also raised its guidance. Looking at this together, it's not just a highlight for one company, but a sign that enterprise AI budgets are truly starting to pour into infrastructure, data platforms, private clouds, and custom chips. In the past two years, the market only asked "who has the model," but now it’s asking "who can run the model cheaper, more stably, and more controllably."
But I don't think this means AI stocks can be bought blindly. The closer to the realization phase, the more selective the market becomes: Are orders real orders, or just stockpiling in advance? Is growth sustainable, or propped up by concentrated customers? The next phase of the AI market won't reward everyone who talks about AI, only those who can turn the bill into profit.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The squeeze that fueled the spike
The run $BTC through $80k–$82k was amplified by short covering. Reports put short liquidations in a wide range of roughly $250 million to $510 million, with total crypto liquidations much larger.
Open interest also dropped, which looks more like deleveraging than a clean new-long
#AugPayrollsBeat
#BTCGoldRatioHigh
#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $ZEC has surged significantly in the past two days, driving the entire privacy coin sector to rally sharply. Generally speaking, a sharp rise in the privacy coin sector indicates that the upward trend is nearing its end. In other words, this round of rebound is probably almost over. At times like this, short selling can be considered, but it should not be done blindly. Personally, I think it’s best to avoid shorting the leading coins at this stage, as the leaders tend to be stronger. Instead, consider shorting some coins that are just riding the hype. For example, today’s focus — $DASH. —————————————————— Let’s take a look at the $DASH candlestick chart. We can see that its last super surge was at the end of May, and at the beginning of June, the market experienced a major correction. During the correction, $DASH basically gave back all its gains. This time, it’s probably no different. —————————————————— Now let’s look at its contract data. We can see that its long-short ratio suddenly rose last night, but the open interest didn’t change much. This indicates that some shorts turned into longs last night, and today’s price increase is likely driven by this group of funds pushing the price up. Currently, its long-short ratio has dropped, while the open interest has risen. This shows that a batch of shorts has entered the market, and the shorting pressure has outweighed the buying pressure. At this point, $DASH may be about to top out. It’s important to note that "about to top out" doesn’t mean it won’t rise anymore, just like being almost full doesn’t mean you won’t eat any more After yesterday’s NFP release, crypto and gold initially dropped sharply, while tech stocks moved higher.
The strong jobs data raised concerns about overheating and persistent inflation, but the unusually large beat has also made the market question the data.
That could explain why gold and crypto quickly stabilized.
If doubts around the data continue, crypto could see a V-shaped recovery.
For now, $BTC and $ETH remain focused on inflation data and Fed policy.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Last night's non-farm payroll data was indeed strong, with an expectation of 55,000 but an actual 162,000, directly tripling the forecast. The probability of a rate hike jumped from 52% upwards, BTC dropped from 81,000 to 78,000, and Ethereum fell 3% in 15 minutes. OKB hit a low of 106.43, now at 109, holding steady. Honestly, BTC has already absorbed most of the shock, so by the time it affects it, the impact is minimal. Holding steady under macro shocks indicates that selling pressure at this level isn't heavy. In the short term, it will still grind between 106 and 111, with no clear direction yet. Just hold for now.
The data itself: US August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 (previous value revised from -23,000 to +21,000), unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month. This is the highest monthly increase since March 2026.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $ZEC $OKB Just after calling a bull market, is the Federal Reserve ready to raise interest rates again? 😅
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%
People holding $BTC are really having a hard time now. The market was finally showing some signs of improvement, but with strong US employment, the market is starting to worry about interest rates going up again.
After the non-farm payrolls release on September 4th, the odds of a rate hike in September rose to nearly 60%. This change has more impact than a tough statement from an official because it means capital is recalculating: if US dollar interest rates are still going to rise, is it really worth chasing risk assets now?
But don’t take it to mean the rate hike is set in stone. Waller recently said quite specifically: if inflation continues to cool down, he leans toward maintaining rates; if inflation is too hot, then he would consider a hike. The Fed’s internal opinions are not fully aligned yet.
This is the trouble for $BTC. Employment data has already pushed back expectations of "easing soon," and if inflation doesn’t cooperate, the part of the price that rose on policy expectations is likely to be sold off again.
Sigh, trading crypto means having to watch every day whether Americans have found jobs or not. When the next inflation data is released, if $BTC can’t even be shaken down by bad news, that would be a reason to look at it more favorably.$KO Coca-Cola KO is currently fluctuating around $87-88, repeatedly testing this range. Besides potential political tailwinds, the fundamental solid logic remains intact: the company has increased dividends for 64 consecutive years, is approaching ex-dividend date, continues stock buybacks, raised full-year guidance in Q2, and global demand is steady. The recent pullback is mainly due to rising US Treasury yields suppressing high dividend valuations, not due to operational issues.
However, presidential remarks are hard to counter the macroeconomic long cycle; Federal Reserve policy is still driven by inflation and employment data. The $90 level is a strong resistance above, difficult to hold above in the short term, while $84 is the core support level. The focus next is on the August CPI inflation data on September 11. If inflation remains high and rate hike expectations continue to ferment, KO will remain under pressure; only if inflation cools significantly and US Treasury yields fall, with multiple positive factors converging, will there be a chance to break through the $90 level. At this stage, it is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish; priority should be given to observing key data and support level changes. Overnight liquidation of 200 million USD, stop treating the non-farm payroll as "ordinary data"
Don't tell me you weren't hurt by this wave.
Before the non-farm payroll, $BTC was at 81,000, $ETH at 2,530, and the whole network was peaceful. Waller's few dovish remarks were repeatedly chewed over, as if the rate hike cycle was already over. So what happened? 162,000 new jobs hit hard, unemployment stubbornly stuck at 4.1%, and the market's "rate cut dream" shattered on the spot.
Then? BTC plunged below 80,000, ETH waterfall-fell, and high-beta assets like $SOL were directly pressed to the floor and rubbed. 200 million in liquidations, all leveraged longs.
What does this story tell us?
First, don't go against the Federal Reserve. You bet on rate cuts, it talks data. Strong employment is strong, your expectations can't beat the black-and-white numbers. When yields rise, risk assets must bow, this is ironclad, not some "bad news is fully priced in" ghost story.
Second, "not running away" is no coincidence. BTC, ETH, SOL all stayed, indicating this is not a problem unique to any single asset, but the entire risk asset level is being compressed. When the water recedes, who is swimming naked is obvious.
But today I won't call a bear market, just remind you of the harshest fact:
The 80,000 level, if not reclaimed, is a grave. If reclaimed, it's a deep squat; if not, it's a breakdown. Don't talk to me about faith, faith is worthless in the face of liquidation. Support turns into resistance, the next stop is to find deeper liquidity, no one knows where the bottom is, but it's definitely not a bit below your cost price.
Worse, the non-farm payroll is just the opening act. It disrupts expectations, clears leverage, and drives the undecided off the bus. Then? CPI is the one that decides whether it's a "false alarm" or "the nightmare is just beginning."
Don't rush to bottom-fish now, nor rush to call the bull dead.
Ask yourself first: if 80,000 becomes a ceiling tomorrow, can your position hold?
If not, don't leave your fate to the market's judgment. If you understand, act; if not, wait.
Wait for the CPI shot to fire, then talk.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Yesterday, everyone was still calling for a bull return, but by noon today, when the market opened again, $BTC had dropped back to the 70s. Sometimes the crypto world is just this frustrating—when prices rise, you fear you missed the opportunity, but once you really get in, it immediately gives you a big stick, teaching both the long and short sellers a lesson. Bitcoin is around $79,598, down 1.64% in the past 24 hours. During this period, it reached a high of $81,405 and hit a low of $78,650. Last night's rapid drop wasn't a sudden on-chain crash; the timing basically matched the US August nonfarm payroll data. New jobs were 162,000, and the unemployment rate was still 4.1%. To put it simply, employment wasn't as weak as the market had feared, so the Fed naturally wasn't in a hurry to relax. After surging past $80,000, the accumulated profits, along with those aggressively opened leveraged long positions, took advantage of this news to drive the market out. Within four hours, the price surged from around $81,222 all the way to $78,650. However, just looking at this drop alone means the market is over, which I think is a bit urgent. On September 3rd, the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $731 million, the largest single-day inflow since January. The money really came in, but this was before the non-farm payroll release, so it couldn't fully absorb last night's macro shock. Right now, the market is basically a battle of arms on both sides: on one side is real buying from ETFs, on the other is strong employment supply$BTC $ETH $SOL
Today's non-farm payroll data has a significant impact on the crypto space and is a typical macro "negative" factor.
Core data (negative): August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000; the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, showing no deterioration. This directly led the market to bet that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September surged to nearly 60%.
· Immediate market reaction: Bitcoin plunged from above $81,000 within 32 minutes after the data release, briefly falling below $78,600, and is currently struggling around $79,000. Ethereum also fell below $2,500.
· A "hidden" easing signal: The year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings dropped to 3.1% (previously 3.2%), the lowest since June 2021. This leaves room for inflation to cool down, so whether there will actually be a rate hike ultimately depends on next week's CPI data.
· Increasing divergence in trends: Now the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has turned negative, indicating that the crypto market is mainly influenced by its own capital and leverage. Most altcoins have broadly declined, with only XRP showing some resistance around $1.45 due to its own positive factors.
💡 About "which coins to play"
Under the current macro headwinds of "high interest rates and a strong dollar," overall operation is quite challenging. If you really want to participate, you can consider this approach:
· Major market leader: Bitcoin (BTC). Mainly supported by ETFs and institutional funds, it falls along with the market but is relatively resilient, making it the first choice for hedging.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%