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Hyperliquid永续合约未平仓份额升至10.2%，链上衍生品平台持续蚕食CEX市场 据 hypeflows 数据，按未平仓合约规模计算，Hyperliquid 目前占据全球永续合约市场 10.2% 的份额，该统计涵盖 Binance、Bybit、OKX 等所有中心化交易平台，略低于 7 月末创下的 10.4% 历史最高纪录。HYPE 现报 85.09 美元，24 小时下跌 2.4%。 Hyperliquid 是目前链上衍生品赛道的头部平台，采用自建 L1 公链与全链上中央限价订单簿模式，用户无需 KYC、通过自托管钱包即可交易永续合约。此次 10.2% 的份额按未平仓合约口径统计，相较于成交量，未平仓合约更能反映真实留存于平台中的仓位资金规模，因此被普遍视为衡量交易平台深度与用户粘性的核心指标。这意味着仅 Hyperliquid 一个去中心化平台的未平仓头寸，已相当于全球所有中心化交易所永续合约总规模的约十分之一，足以比肩甚至超过部分头部中心化交易所的单独体量。从趋势看，该份额在 7 月末一度触及 10.4% 的历史高点，当前 10.2% 属于高位小幅回落后的企稳，并未出现份额被Analyst: The activity of the OG group holding Bitcoin for over 5 years has recently intensified
On-chain data shows that the activity of Bitcoin OG old addresses holding for more than 5 years has significantly increased recently, with the 90-day average of related UTXOs doubling compared to May. The long-dormant early chips have started moving on-chain.
Personal view: Do not immediately interpret old coin movements as massive sell-offs.
On-chain transfers do not equal selling. Some are due to hardware wallet security incidents, with OGs migrating assets to newer, more secure cold wallets; others involve asset reorganization and custody changes, with many funds flowing to newly created addresses rather than directly to exchange addresses.
However, vigilance is still necessary.
These chips have extremely low holding costs and huge unrealized gains. If a large amount of OG assets are observed continuously flowing into exchanges later, that would be a true profit-taking signal and bring real selling pressure. At this stage, it is only an anomaly warning, not a definitive peak signal.
Currently, combined with the rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and ongoing non-farm payroll effects, macro factors still dominate the market. On-chain data can only serve as auxiliary observation and should not be used alone as a basis for opening positions.
In practice, do not panic sell spot holdings; for contracts, further control leverage and continuously monitor two indicators: whether OG address funds are flowing massively to exchanges, and the net inflow/outflow changes of exchange $BTC.Many people keep staring at K-line charts looking for reasons behind the cryptocurrency market's ups and downs, but the real drivers of the market are not within the crypto circle; they are the policy trends coming from across the ocean in the United States.
The rebound in August originated from the marginal easing of U.S. monetary policy. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to fall in response and the U.S. dollar to weaken. The holding cost of Bitcoin consequently decreased, attracting a large influx of capital. Throughout August, Bitcoin's price rose nearly 25%, and spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.5 billion in a single month, hitting a new high in over a year.
Entering September, the market continued to rise following this logic. Waller's dovish remarks led the market to interpret a lower probability of a rate hike in September, prompting a collective rebound in various risk assets.
However, the nonfarm payroll data poured cold water on this optimism. The addition of 162,000 jobs far exceeded all market institutions' forecasts. Hot employment data gave the Federal Reserve more confidence to continue tightening monetary policy, and many institutions shifted to a hawkish stance.
In the past two days, the cryptocurrency price has been tugging back and forth, essentially reflecting the market's game over one issue: whether the Federal Reserve will choose to raise interest rates at the FOMC meeting on September 16.
Note: The above is just market chatter and does not constitute any investment advice. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway's NBIM, has put forward a major proposal to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by about $80 billion, lowering the government bond weighting from 70% to 50%.
Note, this is not a complete exit from U.S. Treasuries.
The core demand is straightforward: the current returns on U.S. Treasuries are unsatisfactory, so funds will be reallocated to higher-yielding credit bonds and MBS assets.
NBIM officially stated: retaining a 50% position in government bonds is sufficient to cover liquidity safety buffers, and the remaining funds should pursue higher-risk returns.
This transmission chain is very clear in the crypto space.
A sustained medium- to long-term reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings will further push U.S. Treasury yields to remain high. The persistently high risk-free rate directly raises the opportunity cost of holding interest-free risk assets like BTC and ETH.
Coupled with the recently explosive nonfarm payroll data reinforcing rate hike expectations, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has stabilized above 4.8%, and the macro headwinds are not isolated noise but forming resonance.
On the contract side, the one-sided dominance between bulls and bears has ended; large players have shifted to range trading, with wide volatility becoming the main theme. ETH leverage fluctuates more, and liquidation shocks caused by spikes are much greater than those of $BTC.
#全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% $CORE has permanently burned over 150 million tokens. It sounds like a lot, but with a total supply of 2.1 billion CORE, this only accounts for 0.7%. There are still large amounts unlocking and being sold each month, so this level of burning is far from enough to sustain a continuous price increase.
The trust gap is hard to repair.
Details of the vulnerability, the exact amount of excess rewards, and whether any tokens have already entered the market have not been disclosed by the project team to date.
Coinbase and four other exchanges once suspended deposits and withdrawals, and doubts about governance capabilities will not be eliminated by a single hard fork.
Simply put: fixing the vulnerability is "what should be done," not "beyond expectations." Without fundamental changes to the token economic model, this level of positive news is unlikely to reverse the long-term downtrend. $ZEC $ETH #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价 It is too absolute to simply label this rise as a scam to trap and harvest. A short-term rebound does not mean the main force has specifically designed a trap to find someone to take over the position. Continuous token unlocking will indeed bring long-term selling pressure, but selling pressure does not mean it can suppress the market at every moment. When short-term funds are speculating, a volume surge can completely offset the selling pressure caused by unlocking for a short time.
Large holders who are trapped represent potential selling pressure, but they may not mindlessly dump during every rebound. Some holders may choose to reduce their positions at highs and exit in batches, not necessarily waiting stubbornly for a big market move to break even before selling everything.
WLFI's weak performance only indicates that the entire Sichuan narrative has significantly lost its heat, but market speculation has never followed fixed logic. Short-term speculators can completely abandon WLFI and instead push the small-cap TRUMP for an independent rally.
The trend of sentiment coins depends only on current funds and market heat; it cannot be entirely ruled out based on past decline history, unlocking rules, or competitor performance. While chasing highs carries huge risks, blindly believing that all rebounds are traps can easily cause one to miss out on short-term fund-driven rallies. $TRUMPBro, before opening the candlestick chart, ask yourself one question: Are you ready to be repeatedly proven wrong? Because over the past week, the face of the crypto world has been slapped by the Federal Reserve. --- 1. What happened this week? — From "Bull Return Speed" to "Run Fast" It took only 48 hours On September 3, Bitcoin surged back strongly back above the $80,000 mark, with a single-day gain of over 5%. The group chat was flooded with "Bull Return Speed" messages, with comments like "80,000 finally held firm" and "This wave saw 100,000 points" echoing everywhere. On September 4, Bitcoin briefly broke through $82,000, hitting a new high since May. Bulls have already started planning where to vacation at the end of the year. On September 5, Bitcoin was quoted at $79,701.0, down 1.67%. 48 hours, from heaven to earth. Why? Because the US August nonfarm payroll data added 162,000 people. What was the market's expectation? 56,000. Three times. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. The June and July figures were revised up by a combined 55,000 people. This isn't "okay"—it's explosive. Once the data was released, CME's "FedWatch FedWatch" showed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September — 58.6%. Just two days ago, this number was hovering around the 50-50 split. A week earlier, after Wash's hawkish move at Jackson Hole, the probability once surged to 66%. Probability of rate hikes at 34%, 66%, 50%, 58%—swinging back and forth four times in one week. You never know what the probability will be when you wake up tomorrow. The three major U.S. stock markets#闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价
Latest Data
Sandisk has been confirmed for inclusion in the S&P 100 Index, effective September 21. Next week, index funds will begin portfolio adjustments and pricing. After the announcement, the stock price surged nearly 12%, alongside a $14 billion buyback plan. On the market, $BTC is at 79663, with the broader market oscillating at high levels. Sentiment in the AI storage sector is spilling over, slightly boosting computing power-related stocks.
Market Consensus
The bullish view holds that inclusion in the S&P 100 will bring massive passive ETF buying, combined with AI storage demand, leaving room for further stock price gains; cautious voices remind that the stock has already risen sharply, with the market front-running, so actual implementation may trigger a sell-the-news reaction.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Index inclusion triggers forced portfolio adjustments by passive funds, driven by short-term capital flows rather than fundamental changes. Long-term stock price depends on NAND flash prices and fulfillment of AI enterprise orders. For crypto, this is only an emotional transmission and does not change the macro-driven trend of $BTC itself.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
Personal View (I personally lean towards a gradual return of the bull market; this is solely my opinion and not investment advice)
Key focus is on the real capital flow after next week's portfolio adjustments settle. Avoid chasing impulsive moves driven by news and manage position sizes.$BTC BTC consolidates at 79,600 — big players are buying, the market is fearful
After surging to 82,000, it pulled back and is currently oscillating around 79,600.
📉 Bearish factors: Nonfarm payrolls blow past expectations
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the forecast was only 56,000, nearly triple the expectation. The probability of a Fed rate hike this month rose from 52% to 59%, and U.S. Treasury yields soared to 4.78%, suppressing risk assets.
📈 Bullish factors: ETF frenzy buying
On September 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $730 million in a single day, marking the third-largest daily inflow this year. BlackRock alone contributed $454 million. Institutions are desperately accumulating chips during the dip.
Key juncture: Direction to be decided next week
September 11 CPI data + September 15-16 FOMC rate decision. Soft CPI → potential surge to 85,000; Hot CPI → possible pullback to 76,000 or even lower.
Big players' buying support vs. rate hike expectations pressure. The direction will be chosen very soonDon't rush to say CLARITY has passed. September 15 is not the final review at all.
Many people mistake the 14:15 vote on September 15 Eastern Time as the bill passing or not.
The truth is it was just a cloture vote.
It requires 60 votes to end the lengthy debate and move on to discuss the main text.
It doesn't mean it passed. There are still the Senate final review, House conference, and presidential signing.
The House passed it on July 20 with 294 to 134 votes.
The Senate committee advanced it with 26 to 15 votes.
With the current 53 seats, it needs at least 7 bipartisan Democratic votes.
The sticking point is the morality clause and the ban on interest payments on stablecoin idle balances.
The bill has ballooned from about 309 pages to about 616 pages, with increasing disagreements.
Prediction markets are even more exaggerated.
Polymarket estimates about 16% chance of enactment this year, Kalshi about 49%.
The price difference on the same issue between the two can be threefold.
Suddenly it makes sense. There are two parallel regulatory tracks.
The legislative window only has about 14 working days left.
The SEC already pushed Regulation Crypto Assets on August 18.
Regardless of whether it fails on the 15th, administrative rules will move forward.
If BTC ETH fall under it, they will become digital commodities under the CFTC.
Don't mistake a procedural vote for regulatory implementation. Watch both tracks, not just slogans.BNB's surge to $750 is the result of several factors coming together:
1. Pasteur upgrade implemented, network performance doubled
At the end of August, BNB Chain activated the Pasteur hard fork, increasing test throughput to 2,324 TPS. On September 4, the Lorentz hard fork was announced, which can reduce Gas fees by 20%. Two consecutive technical upgrades have reignited market confidence in BNB Chain's long-term value.
2. Kalshi launches compliant contracts
On September 4, Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, launched BNB perpetual contracts, allowing U.S. traders to use up to 4.5x leverage. The opening of a compliant channel provides institutional funds with a new entry point.
3. Altcoin season arrives, funds rotating
After the Fed's dovish stance, funds flowed from BTC to altcoins and Meme coins. Over the past 24-48 hours, more than $370 million in shorts were liquidated, with high-beta assets absorbing most forced buy orders. BNB breaking through 700 reflects position resetting. UNI, GRAM, and LINK are all rising.
Technically, BNB is already above all major moving averages, with RSI around 73 entering the overbought zone. The next resistance is at 750-760, with support at 690-700. The Pasteur upgrade combined with quarterly buyback and burn provides fundamental support for this rally. However, the short-term overbought signal is obvious, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing now is average; better to wait for a pullback.
$BNB $BTC $ETH The nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 look explosive, but there's quite a bit of fluff behind it: leisure and hospitality rebounded by 62,000, and local government education rose by 42,000, these two account for most of it. Barclays suggests using the three-month average of private nonfarm payrolls at 75,000 as a cleaner reference indicator. Nonfarm payrolls gave the Federal Reserve the confidence to raise rates, but the real trigger will be next week's CPI. The market was scared by the data; Bitcoin dropped from 81,000 to 79,000, OKB hit a low of 106.43, now stabilized at 109. Holding steady under macro shocks indicates that selling pressure at this level isn't heavy. In the short term, it will still grind between 106 and 111. Hold for now and wait for the CPI release before making further moves.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $OKB surged 140% in one day and then fell back to 108. Is Lao Xu's "burn" really creating scarcity or just cutting leeks?
65.25 million OKB tokens were burned into a black hole at once, pushing the price from 47 to 140, doubling in one day, but today it has dropped back to 108, and those chasing the high are now in the ICU.
On September 4, OKX officially sent 65,256,712 OKB tokens to a black hole address, burning all historical buybacks and treasury reserves. The total supply is permanently locked at 21 million tokens, and the contract level has sealed off any further issuance. This is one of the largest burns in crypto history (about 7.6 billion USD), with RSI instantly soaring above 94 and trading volume exploding 130 times.
The story is compelling: total supply benchmarked against BTC, X Layer upgraded to 5000 TPS, OKX US IPO accelerating, Chainlink collaboration on RWA pricing, and cooperation with ICE on US stock tokenization. This "exchange + public chain + institution" combo punch has indeed transformed OKB from a platform token into an infrastructure token.
Burning controls supply, but whether demand keeps up is the key. OKB's 24-hour trading volume is only about 15 million USD, liquidity is as thin as paper, and a single large order can move the price by several points. Also, it only took one month to rise from 80 to 117, so much of the expectation is already priced in. 112 is 49% of the historical high (225.9), so it's not cheap Harmak repeated the hawkish remarks again: the policy is not tight enough, inflation is too high, it's time to raise interest rates.
Her exact words were "It's time to take action." She also gave an example—a manufacturing business owner in Ohio directly told her that the Federal Reserve should raise rates because raw material prices are rising in double digits. Harmak was one of the three officials who voted against the July meeting, and with the nonfarm payroll data of 162,000 released, it has given her more confidence.
CME data shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has risen from about 50% before the nonfarm payrolls to over 60%. Citibank is even more direct, pushing the first expected rate cut from October 2026 to June 2027.
However, the wage growth rate in August dropped to an annual low of 3.09%, and real wage growth has turned negative. Allianz has warned that with wages falling, consumption may not hold up. But the Federal Reserve is clearly more focused on inflation than wages now.
Next Wednesday's CPI is the last card before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Bloomberg expects the overall CPI year-over-year to rise to 3.4%, with the core CPI dropping to 2.4%. Harmak has already made her stance clear, and employment data supports her—unless the CPI is significantly below expectations, a rate hike in September is basically unavoidable.
As for Bitcoin $BTC, the rate hike probability breaking 60% means the US dollar and US Treasury yields will face short-term pressure, and risk assets will take a hit first. How long the 77,000-78,000 level can hold depends on whether Wednesday's CPI gives a chance for a turnaround. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% On September 3rd, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs rose to 1,267,290.77 BTC, with a net increase of 8,206.67 BTC on the day. This not only reversed the back-and-forth situation seen on September 1st and 2nd but also pushed the total holdings to a new high in this recent cycle.
So far this week, there has been a cumulative net increase of 9,289.73 BTC, with a cumulative net increase of 12,898.51 BTC over the past 7 trading days, and a net increase of 6,689.93 BTC since September began. This indicates that BTC's capital flow has shifted from hesitation in the previous days back to active replenishment, with the single-day increase already surpassing the inflow levels of August 31st and September 2nd.
However, the problem remains that since 2026, BTC spot ETFs have still cumulatively decreased by 30,676.17 BTC. This shows that although the recent continuous replenishment is strong, it is mostly repairing the earlier losses within the year and has not yet fully turned into a new long-term expansion cycle. If the next few days can continue to maintain a daily net inflow of several thousand BTC or more, this round of recovery will be more solid.Why does the non-farm payroll have limited impact on the US stock market but is so sensitive to $BTC?
I find this recent phenomenon quite interesting: after the non-farm data is released, although the US stock market fluctuates, BTC's reaction is clearly more direct. Why?
Let's look at this data. In August, US non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly higher than market expectations, with the unemployment rate holding at 4#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债
"Disliking Treasuries, Norway Sheds $80 Billion"
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund managing two trillion just submitted a long letter, and an $80 billion Treasury position is about to be forcibly moved out of the vault.
Everyone outside thinks the Nordic giant is completely withdrawing from the US, but the total dollar exposure hasn't even moved half a percent; it's purely because the interest from pure Treasuries is too thin, unable to beat inflation and carrying prolonged risks.
The huge freed-up cash is being slammed into semi-officially guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, which have semi-official hardcore credit backing and can earn a solid extra several dozen basis points of rich spread annually.
Behind the portfolio reshuffle is a defensive self-rescue; the account still holds $1.6 trillion heavily invested in tech stocks, so it must rely on thicker spread cash flow to cushion potential major market shocks.
Even the most loyal financier openly admits the cost-effectiveness of Treasuries is insufficient; this credit reshuffle around risk-free assets has quietly begun. $BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Everyone, the BTC to gold ratio has hit a new high again. One BTC can now be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold, the highest point since January this year. The 90-day correlation between the two has also risen to the highest level since 2020, as concerns over debt expansion and declining monetary purchasing power are simultaneously fueling both asset classes.
But I think this ratio has risen more due to liquidity expectations fermenting, rather than BTC truly replacing gold's safe-haven status. The logic behind the two is different—gold is influenced by real interest rates and central bank allocations, while BTC is driven by liquidity improvement expectations and ETF buying. A short-term rise in correlation does not mean long-term substitution.
Market divergence is also widening. Yili Hua and Scaramucci are optimistic about the bull market narrative of scarce assets, while Jiang Zhuoer completely exited near 82,050. Both bulls and bears raising their hands simultaneously is not a bad thing; it shows the market is still in a game of tug-of-war, and a one-sided consensus has not yet formed.
What truly determines whether BTC can continue to outperform gold is not the macro narrative, but whether spot demand can absorb the sell orders around 80,000 to 82,500. If ETF and spot buying continue to keep up, BTC's strength relative to gold can persist. If buying dries up, this ratio will have to pull back.
Above 80,000 is a dense chip area, and every step requires real money to digest. Let's watch as we go and talk again when the direction becomes clear. How far do you think the BTC and gold linkage can go? Let's chat in the comments. Wishing you smooth trading. $BTC $XAU $ETH That's why BTC is sensitive to interest rates.
Look at Coinbase... it's actually the sensitivity of "Americans" that transmits more quickly to BTC.
When the small non-farm payroll and Waller's statements lowered rate hike expectations, Coinbase's SVD (Spot Volume Delta) instantly surged significantly. This reflects strong proactive buying momentum.
And when employment data far exceeded expectations, it triggered concerns about rate hikes again. SVD quickly fell back.
However, proactive selling hasn't shown very strong performance yet (of course, it could also be due to the approaching weekend).
So overall, my feeling is: currently BTC is more sensitive to "positive news" and relatively less sensitive to "negative news."
Of course, there are two important upcoming dates:
1. The CPI data on September 11, whether it strengthens rate hike expectations;
2. The FOMC on September 15-16; even if there is no rate hike, Warsh's wording at the subsequent press conference will become a second source of impact.
Regarding this, my personal view remains unchanged:
From now on, gradually build a "bull market mindset" and abandon the "bear market mindset"; in the face of any negative news, the only thing to consider is "how to find buying opportunities."
And don't always think about "shorting" or "swing trading"; the former lacks cost-effectiveness, and the latter easily disrupts trading rhythm.If the market continues like this, $UNI is bound to spiral skyward.
Yesterday, Uniswap burned 178,000 UNI tokens worth 1.11 million USD, with the Robinhood Chain alone contributing 144,000 tokens, accounting for over 80%.
After the proposal passed on July 15, Uniswap's protocol fee revenue became tied to UNI buyback and burn, so the trading volume on Robinhood Chain directly translates into UNI buy and burn.
On September 4, Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume exceeded 3 billion, with Uniswap dominating 98%, which led to a single-day burn record exceeding one million USD.
However, Standard Chartered Bank previously poured cold water on this, saying that at the burn rate in mid-August, the annualized amount equals 4% of the circulating supply, which is "clearly unsustainable."
Once trading heat cools down, this buy pressure will also shrink. Anyway, just enjoy the ride, don’t get too carried away, folks! $UNI #The world's largest sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce $80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings
The world's largest sovereign wealth fund is also selling U.S. Treasuries, $80 billion.
The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, managing $2.3 trillion, is the largest globally. On September 1, it sent a letter to the Norwegian Ministry of Finance recommending reducing the government bond weight in the benchmark index from 70% to 50%. This amounts to selling about $106 billion in government bonds, of which $80 billion are U.S. Treasuries.
The proportion of U.S. Treasuries in its bond portfolio will be cut from 34.1% directly down to 21.9%, nearly a one-third reduction.
Why sell? The official explanation is "diversify the fixed income portfolio and improve returns." Simply put, although U.S. Treasuries offer high yields, they also carry significant risk, and they don't want to put all their eggs in one basket. What will they buy instead? They are shifting to higher-risk U.S. corporate bonds, MBS, and others with higher yields.
Interestingly, Bessent downplayed the issue, saying it's no big deal. But the market disagrees; when the world's largest buyer is reducing holdings and U.S. Treasury yields remain high at 4.8% and 5.27%, the signal is clear.
For BTC, this is a long-term positive. With $40 trillion in U.S. Treasuries and $1.22 trillion in annual interest, even the largest sovereign wealth fund is reducing exposure, indicating that the dollar's credit will eventually face problems. BTC, as a hedge against fiat currency risk, has an even stronger logic. In the short term, high U.S. Treasury yields may suppress BTC, but in the long term, some of the funds from selling Treasuries will inevitably flow into BTC. $BTC Market Brief｜Nonfarm Payrolls Crash BTC, ZEC Shows Independent Resilience
Market Overview
Under the bearish impact of nonfarm payroll data, BTC fell below 80,000, with the overall market weakening. However, ZEC held the $1,000 mark and did not follow the market's sharp plunge, showing an independent resilient trend.
Market Capital Flow Signals:
- ZEC broke through the $1,000 level, with about $34.5 million in short positions liquidated within 24 hours, squeezing the bears;
- Since the launch of ZCSH products on August 25, a net inflow of at least $34.4 million has accumulated, with ETF-related funds continuously entering.
Viewpoint: A strong asset is characterized by refusing to follow the market down during a pullback; if the $1,000 level holds steadily, the next target is $1,100.
Market Logic
The market is pressured downward by macro nonfarm bearish factors, but ZEC is supported by capital inflows: ETF-related products continue to attract funds, combined with a large number of short squeezes, forming a short-term capital synergy.
Resilience ≠ Absolute Safety: The independent trend essentially results from capital game dynamics. Once incremental funds retreat, in a systemic market downturn, there remains a risk of catch-up declines later. The strength during market crashes is often driven by existing short squeezes and does not fully represent a fundamental change.
Trading Insights
1. Identify strong coins: Their ability to resist declines during pullbacks is more valuable than their gains during rallies.
2. Focus on the $1,000 support level, which is the dividing line between strength and weakness in this independent trend.Maji Big Brother withdraws Friend.tech acquisition offer, saying it may be blocked by Paradigm, expressing support for restarting on Robinhood Chain. On September 5, "Machi Big Brother" Huang Licheng posted that his acquisition Friend.tech proposal was suspected to be blocked by investor Paradigm, so he withdrew the offer; If founder Racer restarts Friend.tech on Robinhood Chain in the future, he will provide support. Friend.tech is a SocialFi app launched in August 2023 based on Coinhouse's Base network. Users can buy creator keys (later renamed shares) to access private group chats, sparking a social relationship tokenization craze. Within weeks of launch, transaction volume exceeded hundreds of millions of dollars, making it the most phenomenal SocialFi project of the year. Paradigm was an early key investor. As the hype faded, project activity and FRIEND token prices continued to decline. In 2025, the team announced its departure from Base and developed its own chain, then relinquished contract control, which the market widely interpreted as the project essentially entering a semi-abandoned state, causing FRIEND's price to plummet at one point. Huang Licheng's statement revealed two layers of information: First, although Friend.tech has become marginalized, its brand and existing user assets still have value in being acquired and restructured, and the competition between investors and potential buyers during the acquisition process is real; Second,In 1980 gold was 20% of all financial assets. Today, gold and Bitcoin together are under 1%.
That tells you two things.
1. Sound money is still early
2. Money printing isn’t stopping.
$BTC The current market is experiencing an extreme contradiction between bulls and bears: economic data is forcing the Federal Reserve to lean hawkish, while White House rhetoric is strongly pressuring for rate cuts, directly plunging the crypto market into a directional tug-of-war.
Last night, the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls sharply surprised to the upside, with 162,000 new jobs added, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. Coupled with widespread upward revisions of previous data, this completely overturned earlier assessments of weakening employment. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike quickly rebounded to around 60%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar simultaneously rallied, and BTC fell from a high of 82,000 to around 79,800, rapidly cooling the prior liquidity easing rally.
For the crypto market, the core of the trend depends solely on the looseness or tightness of dollar liquidity. Strong employment data means the Fed has the confidence to maintain high interest rates or even hike again, and a high-rate environment continues to suppress risk assets like BTC and ETH. However, the White House's ongoing calls for rate cuts leave a glimmer of hope for easing expectations.
The true ultimate decisive signal will be next week's U.S. CPI data. If inflation cools, strong employment alone won't support a rate hike, easing expectations will be restored, and the crypto market could rebound and recover; if inflation heats up again, the combination of strong employment and high inflation will form a double negative, and this rebound rally will face a significant pullback.
Simply put: presidential rhetoric is an emotional disturbance, data is the real market truth. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% 1. Dash's offline conference is a catalyst. Yesterday's offline meeting in Amsterdam announced two things: embedding AI inference directly into payment scenarios; completing privacy payment testing on mobile devices.
2. Moreover, the ecosystem has had a major upgrade. The Dash mainnet went live, adding decentralized storage and domain name systems, making DASH not just a payment coin but also expanding its application scenarios and project stories.
3. Of course, the trigger was Grayscale launching the Zcash Trust on the 25th, heating up the privacy sector. Retail investors started sweeping the entire privacy track, with three established privacy coins strengthening one after another. DASH is essentially riding the wave, not the main player. BTC is pushing back toward the May highs, but the interesting signal isn’t the price. It’s who is selling into the move. Recent on-chain data shows short-term holders are now realizing profits again, with STH SOPR moving above 1 after months of weakness. At the same time, long-term-holder spending remains relatively subdued — meaning the classic “old holders are dumping everything” signal is not confirmed yet. That distinction matters. If short-term buyers become euphoric while long-term supplyAccording to Brother Dao, SanDisk
- Support: $1,680 (breakthrough pullback level) → $1,600 (previous resistance turned support) → $1,550 (closing price on September 3)
- Resistance: $1,800 (psychological level) → $1,998 (consensus target price from 26 analysts, about 15% upside potential)
1. Jefferies target price is only $1,750, basically reached the current price; Q3 bit shipments expected to increase by 10% QoQ (below the expected 13%), ASP up 8% QoQ (far below Q2's 33%), the fastest phase of NAND price increase may be over
2. Up 612% year-to-date, profits are substantial, any negative news could trigger a sharp pullback
3. Strong non-farm payroll data on September 4, market raised the probability of Fed rate hikes, the market came under pressure (Dow Jones fell 0.51% that day), high valuation tech stocks hit first
4. Western Digital continues to reduce SanDisk equity to cash out, completed a 653,000 share swap transaction in May
Scenario Action Entry Range Stop Loss Target
Pullback Long (Preferred) Light Long $1,680 - $1,700 $1,640 (-2.3%) $1,800 - $1,850
Short on Rally (Aggressive) Light Short $1,800 - $1,820 $1,850 (+1.6%) $1,720 - $1,700
Gap Down Breakdown Wait and See Do not buy below $1,650 L2 sector collectively celebrates, but $ETH remains dormant, the market hides divergent signals
The hawkish non-farm payroll data suppresses the market; BTC surged then retreated, ETH shows increased volatility, with most previous gains quickly given back, returning to a high-level consolidation range. An interesting divergence appears on the chart: ARB, OP, and CRV alternately strengthen, the L2 ecosystem tokens show strong profit-making effects, while ETH, the ecosystem leader, remains flat.
This "little brothers charge ahead, big brother lies flat" market pattern has always been controversial. Some traders see it as a precursor signal for $ETH's subsequent catch-up rally, believing the ecosystem's heat will eventually transmit to the main coin. But another risk must be watched: the continuous boom in the L2 sector may divert funds, diluting Ethereum mainnet's intrinsic value capture ability.
Funds verbally favor the entire Ethereum ecosystem but actually rotate among various sub-sectors. This directly causes the ETH/BTC exchange rate to fail to reclaim the 0.04 threshold, and the market's anticipated independent strength rally has yet to materialize.
The macro environment is also not optimistic. After the non-farm data release, September rate hike expectations continue to rise, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and risks still hang over the market. More notably, if the economy remains resilient, the Federal Reserve lacks reasons for easing, and the arrival of liquidity easing will be later than the market originally expected.
Sector rotation markets seem full of opportunities, but timing entry is especially critical. L2 tokens are highly volatile, chasing highs can easily lead to rapid pullbacks. Do not blindly rush in just because the sector is hot; whether positioning in main coins or ecosystem tokens, wait for clear confirmation signals from the market, manage positions well, and avoid being repeatedly harvested by rotation markets.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #Federal Reserve officials say rate hikes are necessary, with a 58.6% probability in September
Hamak turns hawkish
Policy isn't tight enough, inflation remains high, action is needed
After the 162,000 nonfarm payrolls
September rate hike pricing raised to 58.6%
Citi pushes the first rate cut to mid-2027
But wage growth has dropped to a low of 3.09%
Real wages have turned negative
Trump is still calling for rate cuts
58.6% is a sentiment price, not a verdict
The real turning point depends on the September 11 CPI
If overall and core CPI rise again, rate hikes will be tougher
If CPI softens, the probability can retreat
BTC is stuck grinding near 79,600
Macro is currently controlling risk appetite
So my judgment is
Treat rate hikes as a scenario to guard against
Don't bet fully on direction before CPI
$BTC $ETH #macro #ratehikeThe Bitcoin and gold crossover could be a liquidity trap.
Everyone is focused on the same golden crossover. That's exactly why I don't blindly trade it.
When thousands of traders focus on obvious levels like $82,000 to $84,000, their breakout orders and stop losses can cluster in the same area. This creates liquidity—and liquidity attracts big players.
So even if the broader bullish thesis is correct, BTC might first break support, trigger stops, then reclaim that level. The opposite applies above resistance.
Options positioning adds another layer. Significant option open interest near major strikes can influence dealer hedging and temporarily pin prices near those levels. If price escapes the main gamma area, the resulting hedging flows can also amplify the move.
That's why for me the question isn't:
"Is the golden crossover bullish?"
But rather:
"Where is everyone positioning because they believe it is bullish?"
I no longer see $82,000 to $84,000 as a simple support zone but more as a potential liquidity battleground.
The most obvious trades are often where the market inflicts the greatest pain.
Not financial advice. Do your own research. Citigroup Global TMT Conference and Goldman Sachs Technology Conference (September 8-9)
SanDisk management will attend these two major industry conferences. Lynx Equity clearly points out that this is the most critical catalyst in the near term—if management strongly confirms the AI-driven storage shortage persists, it could trigger a new breakout rally.
The "validation" aspect of the conference outweighs the "incremental" aspect: SanDisk's fundamental narrative (AI storage shortage, NBM long-term contracts) was already fully articulated during the August investor day and Q4 earnings report. This conference is more about reiterating and reinforcing these logics to a broader investor audience rather than releasing entirely new information.
The biggest risk is "nothing new": if management merely repeats previously known statements and the market has already fully priced in these positives, the stock price may not see a significant breakout—even possibly pull back due to "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
Time window sensitivity: The conference (September 8-9) is about two weeks before the S&P 100 officially takes effect (September 21). If the conference releases signals beyond expectations, it will provide stronger fundamental backing for index funds to build positions during this period, creating a positive feedback loop of "fundamental confirmation → passive buying follow-through → stock price rise." $SNDK After the strong non-farm payrolls, the most interesting thing is not who fell the least, but who still has funds willing to buy against the macro trend 😎
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
$BTC dropped below $80,000 again over the weekend. More notably, ETF inflows plummeted about 76% from $731 million the previous day. Institutions haven't fully withdrawn, but their willingness to chase prices has clearly cooled. Now, the real wait for Bitcoin is the CPI on September 11; if macro conditions don't ease, ETFs will have to bear more of the support pressure.
$ETH, on the other hand, shows a pretty strong signal: spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $824 million over the past week. ETH is more sensitive to liquidity than BTC, but ETFs, staking, and corporate holdings are all absorbing supply, so it is currently a collision of "macro suppressing valuation" and "institutions locking in chips."
$BICO remains around $0.021, down nearly 14% in a week. The earlier stimulus from exchange expansion has basically faded. Now, talking about account abstraction is useless; we need to see users and revenue return, otherwise low market cap just means high volatility, not cheapness.
$OKB continues to wait for X Layer to turn applications into trading volume; $QQQ is pressured by interest rates, but AI hardware remains strong; $SNDK rose nearly 12% on Friday, NAND shortages outweighing rate hike concerns; $SKHYNIX still holds 50% of HBM share, but Samsung has caught up to 33%. The real trade in AI memory going forward is profits and market share.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Weird market! L2 tokens take turns celebrating wildly, while $ETH remains stagnant
The hawkish non-farm payroll data has clearly suppressed the market, causing a very split phenomenon: Layer 2 ecosystem tokens rally one after another, but the big brother $ETH remains flat and dormant.
After the stronger-than-expected non-farm data, BTC experienced a rise and fall, ETH's volatility increased, and most of the previous gains were quickly given back, with the market returning to a high-level consolidation range.
However, internal market divergence emerged, with ARB, OP, and $CRV alternately moving strongly. The L2 ecosystem's profit effect is hot, and ecosystem tokens take turns gaining momentum. This creates a peculiar situation of "little brothers charging forward, big brother staying still."
There are two completely different interpretations of the market. One view is that the Layer 2 sector's early breakout is a leading signal for $ETH's subsequent catch-up rally; but from a risk perspective, the sustained heat in L2 could somewhat dilute Ethereum mainnet's value capture ability.
Although funds are optimistic about the entire Ethereum ecosystem, they mostly rotate within the ecosystem sectors. This directly causes the ETH/BTC exchange rate to fail to reclaim the 0.04 level for a long time, and the long-anticipated independent strength rally has yet to arrive.
The macro environment is also not optimistic. After the non-farm data release, September rate hike expectations have risen, US Treasury yields remain high, and risks continue to hover over the market. More critically, if the economy remains resilient, the Federal Reserve lacks reasons to ease, and the arrival of liquidity easing will likely be later than the market expects.
A hot ecosystem does not mean the base currency will immediately strengthen. Facing this split market, blindly chasing hot sectors is unwise, and one should be wary of pullback risks caused by macro suppression.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% The golden cross is bullish, but I wouldn't take it as a $100,000 signal. #BTC has risen about 30% in 90 days, while open interest and funding have cooled down. To me, this looks more like a position reset rather than the 2021-style leverage frenzy.
The key level remains $82,000 to $84,000.
Break and hold → $90,000, then $98,000 to $100,000 becomes realistic.
Rejection → $75,000 could come back into play. I also wouldn't put too much weight on historical +250-300% returns. The sample size is small, and those large moves happened in very different macro environments. To me, the golden cross is a confirmation tool, not a catalyst. If $BTC can break through $84,000 while spot demand remains strong, then $100,000 is back on the table. #August Nonfarm Payrolls 162K Far Exceed Expectations
$BTC dropped from 82K back to 79K: fake breakout traps traders, position size is more deadly than direction
Yesterday, some were still shouting "82K holds, the bull market is back, 🐮 is coming."
Today, as the US August nonfarm payrolls were released: 162K new jobs added, expected only 56K. Nearly 3 times the forecast.
$BTC plunged from the high of 82,170 straight down to 78,650, with intraday volatility exceeding $3,500. Many were liquidated here.
The market didn’t suddenly change. Many mistook the breakout for a trend and volume surge for safety.
Let me be clear upfront to save you from arguing: I’m not chasing longs in the short term.
78.6–79.0K is a watch zone, not a buy zone.
As long as the price doesn’t return above 81,400, I treat yesterday’s 5% bullish candle as a bull trap, killing off a batch of longs.
If it breaks below 78,650 and fails to recover, the next target is 76,300.
Why not side with the bulls? Just three reasons.
First, 82K isn’t necessarily new territory.
It was tested in May, again on August 25, and once more yesterday—three attempts without holding overnight. The chips are stacked here; it’s not a vacuum.
Second, the nonfarm data changed the narrative.
Waller was saying the day before yesterday to wait for August inflation before deciding on rate hikes; the market lowered rate hike odds, pushing funds toward 82K.
With 162K jobs added, the economy isn’t weak enough to ease; before the September 16 meeting, bears have ammo again.Crypto KOL XXAntiWar declares "Believe in Niu Lai" after nearly a year; on-chain data shows he has already transferred his holdings to exchanges in advance. On September 5, after nearly a year, crypto KOL XXAntiWar posted again, calling for "Trust Niu Lai," attracting community attention. However, on-chain data shows that as early as September 3, he had transferred all 17.56 million "Niu Lai" tokens he held to Binance Alpha, suspected to be stop-loss or cash-out, with public statements clearly diverging from on-chain behavior. On September 5, crypto KOL XXAntiWar posted again on X after nearly a year, calling for "Believe Niu Lai," quickly attracting community attention. As a former active crypto opinion leader, his nearly a year of silence has already sparked much speculation. This high-profile comeback and bullish signal have been interpreted by some community members as a sign of warming market sentiment. However, on-chain data reveals another side. Just two days before the post, on September 3rd, XXAntiWar had already transferred all 17.56 million "Niulai" tokens it previously held into Binance Alpha. Transferring tokens to exchanges is usually seen as a prerequisite for selling, so the market interprets this transfer as a stop-loss or cash-out move. This timeline creates an intriguing contrast: first transferring holdings, then loudly claiming to go long. In the crypto market, it is not uncommon for KOLs' public statements to diverge from their actual on-chain behavior; investors often find it difficult to judge their true stance based solely on social media statements, and on-chain data is open and transparent, which is not acceptableThe real tide is not on-chain, but on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
Those who focus on on-chain data to find a bull market may be looking in the wrong direction. The true engine of this round of volatility has always been in Washington.
The August recovery is essentially a "repo water accumulation." When the U.S. Treasury increased the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion, market liquidity expectations immediately improved. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked and fell back, loosening the "tightening spell" that suppressed risk assets. Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, gained a breathing window. Throughout August, net inflows through spot ETF channels exceeded $3.5 billion. This was not an endogenous FOMO within the crypto circle, but a passive rise in macro liquidity levels.
The tentative rally in early September was a continuation of the "dovish nourishment." Federal Reserve officials publicly hinted at skipping rate hikes, and the market quickly priced in the "end of tightening." Once expectations shift, short covering pushes prices to rebound rapidly.
However, last night's nonfarm payroll data, with 162,000 new jobs added, completely reversed the narrative. The employment market far exceeded expectations, completely blocking the Fed's excuse to pivot. Sygnum Bank's Chief Investment Officer bluntly stated that such data only strengthens the hawkish stance.
In the past 48 hours, the market has been repeatedly betting on one core question: Will the Fed dare to continue raising rates at the September 17 FOMC? Until this answer is revealed, all K-line fluctuations are just ripples under the macro tide. $ETH $BTC $SOL #NonfarmDataCrushesRateCutExpectations #USBondYieldCurveVolatility #FOMCRateDecisionCountdown$ETH Market Depth Observation: Liquidity and Order Book Trends Under the Fed's Dovish Tone
⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is for market information organization and communication only and does not constitute any investment advice. Virtual asset prices are highly volatile; please ensure proper risk control.
Major Macro Trend: Fed Hawkish Benchmark Rarely Eases
Fed Governor Waller's latest statement on September 3 became a clear dividing line in the bulls vs. bears battle:
He publicly stated that if the August inflation indicators continue to steadily decline, he tends to support holding steady and pausing rate hikes at the September FOMC meeting. This comment quickly reshaped interest rate swap pricing, causing the probability of a September rate hike to plummet from a high of 63% to 48.4%.
Waller, traditionally a core representative of the hawkish camp in the decision-making body, has had his tone widely interpreted on Wall Street as signaling the end of this tightening cycle. Boosted by this, the US Dollar Index promptly broke down and weakened, while spot precious metals and US tech-heavy stocks rallied broadly.
The fundamental logic reflected in the crypto space is: the extreme high interest rate liquidity drain pressure on risk assets is substantially easing on the margin; and with its high Beta elasticity, ETH is noticeably more sensitive to macro policy levels than BTC.
#HOOD closed higher, hitting a new high for the year, leading public chains in on-chain revenue
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 TRUMP's surge today, I glanced at it and closed it immediately. Not being sour, it's just that this coin's foundation is too rotten, a pump-and-dump style rise, specifically targeting those who can't resist.
Don't rush to curse, I'll explain point by point.
The most outrageous thing about this thing is its release mechanism. Other coins at least have a cycle for unlocking, but this one dumps 909,000 coins into the market every single day without fail, never stopping. This isn't a deflationary project; it's a perpetual money-printing machine. That's why you see it drop every now and then, and after a 50% drop, it can still be halved again because the selling pressure never stops.
Going deeper, in the previous two White House dinners, 220 big holders got trapped, and except for 35 who escaped quickly, the rest are all buried inside. Everyone knows the situation: "Tell a story to pump it up, wait for you to take the bag, then slowly cut you down." Pumping it up to help those on top get out? Don't even think about it, the house doesn't have that kind heart.
And the most critical point is that the Trump family is actually betting on WLFI. That's the real favorite; the USD1 stablecoin's market cap has already reached 4 billion, ranking in the top ten stablecoins. TRUMP, as a peripheral coin, isn't even taken seriously by the family itself. Since even the favorite son has dropped 80%, the market has long discounted the Trump family's credit, so whatever you put out, just assume an 80% discount.
Even if funds want to speculate on the Trump concept later, they'll prioritize WLFI. TRUMP at most gets some leftover scraps and can't really be pumped.
So today, whoever wants to chase it, go ahead. As for me, I'm just watching the show. This coin, don't even touch it. $TRUMP $WLFI U.S. stock market closed on Monday for Labor Day
The sentiment at Friday's close means freezing for three days
When I was watching the market on Friday, I already felt something was off
The overall market was falling, but storage and optical communication sectors were skyrocketing
SanDisk, Micron, Hynix, Marvell, Coherent—all of them were rallying
But think about it, the market falls while sectors rise, that means the market is making two completely opposite trades on the same day
Do you really believe this split can hold intact through a three-day holiday? I don't buy it
//
On Monday, A-shares open first, U.S. stocks remain closed
Domestic storage, optical modules, semiconductor equipment—I think they will likely open high, maybe even surge, but I won’t chase
The reason is simple: Monday’s A-shares are trading based on what the U.S. market has already done, not what the U.S. market is about to do
The mapped market surges first, but the U.S. market hasn’t given its answer yet
This middle period is the most vulnerable
I’ve suffered losses from this before
——
The real test comes when the U.S. market opens on Tuesday
Three days without continuous quotes, only news and speculation piling up
Once New York opens, capital will have to digest three things in a very short time:
► Friday’s nonfarm payrolls—employment is too strong, raising the probability of rate hikes, not fully priced in yet
► Geopolitical and oil price developments over the weekend
► Expectations gap for next week’s CPI
What worries me most is the first one
//
So I’m staying put this weekend
On Monday, I’ll watch how A-shares price in sentiment, but won’t chase the mapped market
On Tuesday, I’ll watch how the U.S. market reprices rates and inflation—that’s the real direction.
These three days in between aren’t a vacuum, they’re risk deferred. Money rushing to take a position early is often the first to get harvested. $HYPE This thunderbolt is about to strike on September 6
HYPE surged to 86.7, just a step away from the all-time high of 88.06, but at this moment, nearly 10 million tokens unlocking are looming right ahead.
On September 4, HYPE reported 86.71, rising nearly 6% in a single day, RSI hitting 69 approaching overbought, and market cap breaking into the top ten. The catalysts are really strong: on September 3, Hashdex's NCIQ ETF included HYPE as its fifth largest holding, opening an institutional compliance channel; on the same day, a whale wallet scooped up 430,224 HYPE (35.1 million USD); the HIP-3 upgrade (August 29) opened a permissionless perpetual market, tripling daily trading volume. There are also rumors of talks with Kraken's parent company Payward about US market access.
But I have to pour the coldest water: on September 6, 9.92 million HYPE tokens will unlock into circulation, which at the current price means over 800 million USD potential selling pressure. Historically, every large unlock has triggered a pullback. Plus, RSI is already overheated, so chasing at this level is very poor value.
My strategy: I acknowledge HYPE's fundamentals; it is the cleanest on-chain leader this round. But in the 86-88 range, I only reduce, not add. Wait for the unlock to cause a drop to 78-80 (around the 20-day EMA) before considering buying. Don't be the bag holder when everyone else is excited. Why did the mid-tier favorite Lululemon suddenly take a big tumble recently?
The stock price plunged 20% in just a few days. The data tells the whole story: the crash was directly triggered by a disastrous earnings guidance. The latest Q2 revenue was $2.42 billion, down 4% year-over-year, with global same-store sales plummeting 9%. The worst part is the company once again lowered its full-year revenue forecast to $10.35 billion to $10.5 billion, and core yoga pants sales shrank by 20% $LULU
On the surface, this seems to be about consumption downgrade and new brand diversion, such as strong competition from Alo Yoga and Vuori. But deeper down, it exposes two core crises:
Stagnation in core innovation and aesthetic fatigue
Lululemon used to dominate with its second-skin fabrics and high premiums, but in recent years the product line has lost its way, introducing a bunch of flashy, unpopular fashion styles, losing the foundational yoga pants category.
Tightening balance sheets of the middle class
The group that used to buy pants for over a hundred dollars is now sensitive to price changes, and naturally, more cost-effective alternative brands are rising.
Market outlook:
A bottom is hard to see in the short term. Even if valuations adjust, it’s difficult to hide the deceleration in North America, the company’s main market. Going forward, the company will likely drastically cut SKUs, shrink non-core categories, and be forced to return to functional classic styles. Without the belief in high premiums, Lululemon’s adjustment period will probably last years.
DYOR BTC really got pressed down by the non-farm payrolls this time.
It surged above $81,000 once, but as soon as the data came out, it dropped directly to around $79,200.
The US added 162,000 jobs in August, while the market originally expected only about 56,000.
The 10-year US Treasury yield also briefly surged to around 4.80%, reigniting expectations for a rate hike in September.
This is very realistic.
Before, $80,000 was support; now it’s starting to become resistance.
The price dropping isn’t scary.
What’s scary is that after a rebound, suddenly no one is buying near $80,000.
Because those who chased earlier might just be waiting to break even.
So the most important thing to watch for BTC next isn’t "when it will break through again."
But rather:
Can $80,000 turn back into a buying price?
And don’t forget, there’s also the CPI on September 11.
The non-farm payrolls reignited rate hike expectations.
If CPI adds fuel to the fire, BTC might continue to be under pressure.
But if CPI cools down, the market might start trading on easing expectations again.
So don’t rush to write off $80,000 just yet.
The market’s favorite thing to do is to turn yesterday’s support into today’s resistance.
$BTC $ETH Under the heavy pressure of the non-farm payrolls, ZEC's "resistance code"
In August, non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, nearly three times the expected 56,000. This "data bomb" instantly ignited expectations of a rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields surged, BTC responded with a pullback, and the overall crypto market came under pressure. However, ZEC charted an independent course, firmly holding the $1000 mark, almost unaffected.
I once shorted ZEC near $970 with 50x leverage, aiming to capture profits from a post-rally correction. But the market gave me a sobering lesson—true strength is shown when prices don’t fall in the face of negative news. Reviewing this round of price action, ZEC led the rally when the market rose and resisted declines when risk sentiment worsened. This level of capital support goes beyond a typical rebound.
Non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations usually weigh on risk assets, but ZEC’s resilience signals two things: first, the coin may have an independent fundamental narrative, unaffected by macro sentiment; second, previous profit-taking holders did not panic sell, and instead, new funds stepped in around the $1000 level. A truly strong coin is measured not by how high it flies with the wind, but by how firmly it stands against it.
Tonight, ZEC has passed the stress test. If the macro negative factors are digested and the market stabilizes, ZEC is highly likely to break out first. The $1500 target, judging by tonight’s performance, doesn’t seem far off. Of course, the lesson from 50x leverage reminds me—no matter how strong, risk control always comes first. $ZEC Let me say something that everyone is too lazy to think about but is very critical.
The word "September" has never been a good sign for the crypto world. In the past 13 years, Bitcoin has closed green in September only 8 times, a probability of 61.54%, and altcoins almost always suffer along with it. I checked the calendar, and this year we again face the Fed meeting, non-farm payrolls, and a bunch of token unlocks. It's hard to expect a smooth and comfortable rise this month.
Geopolitics hasn't been idle either. The Iran conflict has flared up again, but guess what? Gold has reacted more than Bitcoin, with spot gold standing above $4470, while WTI oil prices remain stuck around 91. The US dollar index has dropped below 99, which should be good for risk assets, but crypto still fell this week as expected, indicating that the main pricing driver now is not risk aversion but interest rate hike expectations.
Honestly, I'm a bit surprised. In previous years, when geopolitics flared, Bitcoin at least followed gold's upward trend, but this time they diverged. Some analysts say this shows Bitcoin is now more like an inflation hedge, tied to gold rather than the Nasdaq. I partly agree with this view, but in the short term, it is still being pulled by US Treasury yields.
Another external variable: the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have risen, and the USD/JPY has dropped nearly 3% in two days. If Japanese authorities intervene and sell US Treasuries, global long-term rates will shake, and risk assets will take a hit.
My feeling is that the first half of September will be a grind; don't expect a major rally. Manage your positions well, keep some cash ready for the mid-September meeting outcome. Opportunities will come from the dips, so no need to rush. $BTC $ETH #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 I opened a trade, and the unrealized profit was 20%. I started to worry: Should I sell or not? I've already made 20%, so I should just pocket it. I sold. Then I watched it keep rising, reaching 150%. It's not that I didn't catch the right one, I did it right, and then I let go myself. This has happened many times. Every time, I tell myself: next time, hold on. The next time the unrealized profit hits 10% or 20%, my hand automatically presses sell again. It's not that I don't know, it's that I can't—until I realized a counterintuitive fact. The smartest way to take profit is not to take profit. In short, your take-profit action is systematically cutting off your only path to getting rich. Trends are the only way for ordinary people to make big money, and trends are precisely the "competitor positions taken from take-profits"—if you run every time you take profit, you're essentially handing over the most lucrative segment of the market to those who can hold onto it. Why: How take profit destroys a major trend? First, the instinct to take profit is a mirror of loss aversion. "Pocketing for safety" sounds rational, but at its core, it's the fear of "floating profits disappearing": profits are still on the account but not yet in hand, and the brain thinks, "That's not mine, it could run at any time," so it rushes to cash out. This is the same switch as taking trades—one fears losing profits, the other fears confirming losses, both driven by fear. Second, the math for small profit-taking is a bad debt. If you make 10%, you run; running 10 times equals 100%? No. If you lose even one out of ten times (a 10% loss), most of the profits from the first nine times are wiped out. And if you seize 100% of the profits once, it's worth the sum of ten small take-profit attempts, and you only need to take the extra chargeThe moment of liquidation, I couldn't believe I would make such a mistake.
People's understanding of their own nature is too shallow, lacking recognition of real limitations. What breaks at that moment is not the account, but the story of "I am the exception." This is also the cruelest aspect of non-ergodicity: before the process unfolds, the assumption "I will control it this time" is always believable because every lucky profit reinforces it. But as soon as there is an irreversible heavy blow, all previous evidence of "I made it" loses its meaning. Those were never proof that you could overcome human nature, but only proof that you hadn't encountered that one desire strong enough to move you.
And the belief in discipline itself feeds larger positions and looser stop losses, until reality repeatedly corrects this concept.
In fact, the person who can conquer human nature will never exist.74K
$ZEC → $750
$ETH → $2,350
$SOL → $95
$HYPE → $73
I don’t currently expect these zones to break easily.
BTC has reclaimed the $80K area, while ZEC and HYPE are still showing strong momentum. That leaves plenty of room for a sudden shakeout if the market gets overheated.
Let’s see if September delivers the surprise.
Quote$BTC / gold ratio has risen to around 18.17, reaching a new high since January this year, meaning Bitcoin's recent performance has clearly outpaced gold.
Behind this is actually a very interesting change.
The market is re-integrating BTC and gold into the same macro narrative, especially in an environment of fiscal pressure, currency purchasing power, and rising demand for safe havens. The correlation between the two has significantly increased, with BTC and gold correlation reaching a high level since 2020 by the end of August.
Capital flows have also given BTC a vote of confidence.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, the largest single-day inflow since January this year, and the overall net inflow in August reached about $3.5 billion.
But I don't think this means BTC can just charge ahead blindly.
Because the latest non-farm payrolls actually poured cold water on the market. US August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, employment data clearly stronger than previous market expectations, making the Fed's decision on rate cuts or maintaining rates more complicated.
So now I pay more attention to one signal — whether $80,000 can truly transform from a psychological barrier into a price level recognized by capital.
If ETF funds continue to return, and the dollar and US Treasury yields do not form obvious suppression again, then BTC continuing to strengthen relative to gold is not surprising.
But if inflation heats up again and rate expectations turn hawkish once more, BTC may again prove its biggest difference from gold — its safe-haven logic increasingly resembles gold, but its volatility remains much higher than gold.
So the real highlight of this round may not be whether BTC can catch up with gold, but whether it can firmly establish the position of "digital gold" in institutional asset allocation for the first time.
$ETH $ZEC
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？