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Let's talk about an easily overlooked signal: in this rally, the funding rate for $BTC has quietly flipped positive from neutral, and $ETH has even hit around 0.01%. On the surface, it looks like a bull party, but from another perspective—the positive funding rate means that now the shorts are collecting money instead of paying. After a short squeeze clears out the underwater shorts, those left are the ones willing to pay the funding fee to hold long positions at high levels. It's clear who is subsidizing whom. Meanwhile, the volume ratio never picks up, indicating this is a pulse-style squeeze, not an influx of new capital entering the market. The data won't play tricks on you. $BTC$ANIME This spot for ANIME is truly a paradise for manipulative whales, repeatedly stabbing around 0.0026, volume hasn't increased but turnover is extremely high, a typical scenario of mutual insults. Pure capital speculation with no fundamental support, it's normal that retail investors can't hold on, they wash out and give up quickly. My view is don't rush to chase, wait for volume to pick up and choose a direction, either break through and follow the trend, or break down and exit. Do you think this move is a setup or a bull trap? Drop the tokens you're watching in the comments. 👇👇👇Recently, I noticed another direction in the Core ecosystem worth paying attention to: Fiamma's BitVM2 bridge now supports Core.
I think ordinary people might not easily feel the impact of this, but it addresses the issue of how BTC and other chains can interoperate with greater trust.
I'm increasingly convinced that if Core really wants to build a large BTCFi in the future, just having a staking function won't be enough. How BTC comes in, how it is used afterward, and how assets flow—these infrastructures all need to be gradually developed.
So now, I'm actually less concerned about how many points CORE gains today.
What I really want to see is whether, after these infrastructures are all completed one by one, a truly usable BTCFi ecosystem can finally be formed. $CORE Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, with over $3.3 billion liquidated across the network
On August 20, Bitcoin surged 11% to surpass $72,000, reaching a nearly three-month high. Ethereum rose over 19%, and SOL increased more than 13%.
According to CoinGlass data, 188,000 people worldwide were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling $3.34 billion, with short positions accounting for over $3 billion, marking the largest short liquidation wave since 2021.
Drivers of the rally: First, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases will double, causing U.S. bond yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, improving liquidity expectations. Second, the SEC proposed new crypto asset regulations allowing compliant projects to issue no more than $75 million annually. Third, Trump held a crypto industry summit at the White House, urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act.
The core trigger for this surge comes from crowded short positions accumulated during six months of consolidation—BTC has long oscillated around 60,000, with the derivatives market accumulating significant leveraged shorts. The price breaking through a key liquidation dense zone created a short squeeze positive feedback loop.
Looking ahead, the $72,000-$75,000 range is a short-term key resistance zone; holding above it could lead to further gains, while a pullback should watch for support around $68,000-$69,000.
Brothers, did you get on board this wave? Let's discuss in the comments
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The total supply of OKB has been fixed at 21 million tokens, and it is also the only native Gas token of the X Layer.
Scarcity is an advantage, but "limited quantity" does not necessarily mean a price increase. What truly determines long-term value is whether the X Layer has users, transactions, and real Gas demand.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The just-released July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are quite straightforward: basically no one in the entire document mentioned "rate cuts." The final vote was 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, with 3 members directly calling for a rate hike. The gist of the minutes is that if inflation doesn't come down, rate hikes may be necessary later. Previously, everyone was hoping for rate cuts daily; now the main discussion has shifted to "whether to raise rates."
The short-term implication of these minutes for the crypto market is that they reinforce the pricing basis that "a high interest rate environment may persist longer." Major assets like Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum #$ETH are highly sensitive to real interest rates and USD liquidity. The minutes clearly lack any discussion of rate cuts while keeping the option to hike rates, which will weaken the market's expectations for easing within the year. However, it is important to distinguish that the minutes reflect information from a meeting three weeks ago; since then, some employment and inflation data have shown signs of weakening, and the probability of a September hike has somewhat declined. What truly affects recent trends is not this lagging document itself but whether subsequent policy communication and data can resonate.
For now, put aside the fantasy that "rate cuts are coming soon," at least until Jackson Hole hears what Wash has to say; meanwhile, watch inflation and employment data before the September meeting—if the data softens, the market will reignite rate cut expectations; if the data is strong, high rates will continue to weigh; also, observe whether funds are flowing into or out of the crypto space.The market has indeed clearly warmed up. $BTC has once again risen above $71,000, and $ETH has also shown a strong rally. The entire crypto market is experiencing a noticeable recovery in risk appetite. But there is one data point I think cannot be ignored right now: 📊 The CMC Altcoin Season Index is currently only about 41/100, still significantly short of a true "Altcoin Season," with the overall trend still leaning more towards Bitcoin Season. What does this mean? Many traders see BTC breaking through, ETH following suit, and some altcoins surging 8%–15% in a single day, and start shouting "Altcoin Season is back." I think it's still too early. Behind this rally, besides the technical buying triggered by BTC breaking key price levels, it is also driven by recent expectations of improved US regulatory environment, institutional capital inflows, and renewed optimism around spot ETF funds. But a real altcoin season cannot be judged by just a few coins suddenly skyrocketing. What I pay more attention to is: 🔹 Whether BTC's uptrend can remain stable 🔹 Whether ETH/BTC can continue to strengthen 🔹 Whether ETF funds continue to have net inflows 🔹 Whether trading volume and capital breadth in the altcoin market expand 🔹 Whether the Altcoin Season Index can sustain a move above 60 If capital remains concentrated in BTC and ETH, and other altcoins only pulse in rotation, it looks more like liquidity rotation.8.21 Friday Latest Gold Analysis
From a technical perspective, after gold filled the 4450 gap during the European session yesterday and started an upward channel, the highest price has reached 4540. Currently, the 4500 support has stabilized, and the small range is in a consolidation phase. The key focus is the strength of the 4500 support level. As long as the 4500 level is not effectively broken downward, after a slight pullback, it is highly likely to continue a strong upward trend. The upward channel is now fully open, with the next resistance near 4550. In terms of trading, operate around the support with low buy positions!
Suggestion:
Buy around 4500-4490, target near 4550-4580
$XAU Trump publicly stated that the United States has "ended the war on cryptocurrency" and urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. This statement quickly ignited market sentiment, with Bitcoin strongly breaking through the $70,000 mark in the short term, causing a massive short squeeze and further amplifying the upward momentum. 🔥 The core catalyst of this rally is clearly not just the price itself, but a substantial policy shift. Trump has explicitly made easing crypto regulations a key focus of his administration and directly named the CLARITY Act, signaling that the industry is moving from being "under siege" to a critical point of "legislative acceptance." What is even more noteworthy is the timeline: the key vote on the bill is scheduled for September 15. If the bill gains enough support in Congress, September could become an important watershed moment for the crypto market. The implementation of a compliance framework will attract more institutional capital and pave the way for subsequent products like ETFs and bank custody. However, the market never only rises without falling. The biggest risk to watch out for now is the "sell-the-news" risk after the positive news is fully priced in. Expectations have already been partially factored into the price before the vote; if the final result falls short of expectations or key provisions are significantly weakened, short-term correction pressure cannot be ignored. Additionally, there is a dense concentration of locked-in positions above $70,000, so the sustainability of the breakout still needs volume confirmation. In the coming days, the market will revolve around two core variables: first, the level of administrative push from Trump’s team on the bill, and second, the internal disputes within Congress over specific crypto regulatory provisions. Any piece of news could trigger intense reactions.BlockBeats news: On August 21, the CME Federal Reserve observed key changes in its data! The probability of holding rates unchanged in September fell to 65.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike surged to 34.6%. 📊 Compared to the previous day's data on August 20: yesterday's probability of unchanged was 67.3%, while the probability of rate hikes was only 32.7%. In just one day, rate hike expectations rose by 1.9 percentage points, and market bets on tightening have heated up again! Don't underestimate this 1.9% change! Currently, the market has just emerged from a short squeeze rally, and bullish sentiment is heating up. If rate hike expectations continue to rise, US Treasury yields could surge again at any time, and expectations of tightened liquidity will directly impact risk assets. In the short term, the risk of market volatility has sharply increased, and after the surge, hidden risks of plunge are hidden. The next priorities: the Jackson Hole speech, inflation, and employment data—each could trigger a new round of dramatic market rally. $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3, disagreements among officials about rate hikes remain Anthropic plans to publicly rush a $75 billion financing round anchored at a $2 trillion valuation, but the nearly $42 billion loss in 2025 tied to massive computing power forms the core contradiction of the valuation inversion.
The $11.5 billion revenue in Q2 proves the ability to grow income, but the nearly $42 billion net loss in 2025 directly limits the pace of balance sheet repair. The primary driver of valuation is rigid computing power expenditure, followed by enterprise-level monetization speed, and lastly long-term revenue expectations.
This event risk is transmitting from the primary market to risk appetite in the secondary market. Nvidia guarantees $105 billion for data centers, and pension funds take on construction bonds, leading to highly overlapping positions in the computing power industry chain. If the public market cannot absorb the $75 billion financing amount, risk aversion sentiment will quickly spread to the entire AI sector.
Management demands super voting rights with 2% equity, while locking in cash outflows through multi-billion-dollar computing power contracts with SpaceX over three years. If the underlying computing power cost reduction fails to exceed expectations, the profitable quarters mentioned by the CFO will be hard to repeat, and DeepSeek’s price competition continues to suppress overall monetization gross margin.
The upside scenario is based on a significant drop in computing power costs and accelerated enterprise-level monetization exceeding expectations. If the path to achieving the $190 billion to $200 billion revenue forecast by 2028 is clear, and computing power spending growth is lower than revenue growth, the $2 trillion valuation will gain fundamental support; the failure signal for this scenario is a continuous increase in the proportion of computing power contract expenditures.
The downside scenario focuses on massive losses triggering risk aversion suppression in the secondary market. If the $75 billion financing squeezes public market liquidity and risks such as model bypassing safety protections trigger regulatory intervention, institutional positions will see concentrated exits; the failure signal for this scenario is stronger-than-expected secondary market absorption and rapid chip digestion.
The failure condition judgment lies in computing power expenditure rigidity breaking the upper limit or price wars causing long-term gross margin collapse, making the valuation model unable to discount based on long-term revenue.
The core observation variables for the next 7 days are the computing power liability details in the public offering application documents and the position adjustment trends in the secondary market technology sector.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落🔥$OPENAI just released a performance report that made the market nervous.
Q2 revenue was $6.7 billion, up 18% from $5.7 billion in Q1. Sounds decent, right? But the problem is—the quarter-over-quarter growth rate was cut in half, down from 35.7% in Q1. Even more painful, operating losses increased from $9.3 billion to $12.3 billion. Slower earnings growth, faster losses.
The most awkward part is that Anthropic, long seen as the "follower," hit $11.5 billion in revenue for the same period, surging over 140% quarter-over-quarter. This is the first time in Anthropic's history that its single-quarter revenue surpassed OpenAI's.
Two months ago, OpenAI was racing toward an $852 billion valuation, while Amazon's $50 billion just came through. Now investors are starting to panic—no IPO in sight, and losses are growing faster than money printing.
Revenue growth without profit is tolerable, but slowing revenue growth combined with accelerating losses makes the market much less forgiving. Once OpenAI's valuation anchor loosens, the entire crypto AI sector will have to be repriced.
When the "first AI stock" starts to be questioned by investors, the story gets tough to tell. 👇
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 METAPLANET IS TAKING A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO WALL STREET
Metaplanet isn’t selling Bitcoin to expand.
It’s using $BTC as strategic capital.
The company is contributing 2,100 BTC (~$132M) plus $2.5M cash to Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise, taking a 95.7% stake and rebranding it as Superplanet ($SUPA), a U.S. based Bitcoin treasury platform.
The interesting part?
That 2,100 BTC represents less than 5% of Metaplanet’s 43,000 BTC holdings, while the Bitcoin remains within the broader group.
The strategy appears to be bigger than the acquisition itself:
Use BTC → gain access to a U.S. public-market vehicle → create another channel for dollar capital → keep the core BTC treasury intact.
After the announcement, Super League shares surged 127%, while Metaplanet locked its shares for five years.
Whether this becomes a blueprint for other Bitcoin treasury companies remains to be seen.
But the idea is fascinating:
What if Bitcoin becomes not just a treasury asset, but an entry ticket to global capital markets?
BTC funded M&A could become a much bigger narrative from here. 👀📉 The U.S. Treasury takes emergency action, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fall in response
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the scale of long-term bond repurchases — raising the single operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering 10-20 year and 20-30 year bonds, effective September 9.
The day before, the 30-year Treasury yield had just hit a 19-year high of 5.33%. Once the news broke, long-term yields quickly fell, dropping nearly 10 basis points in a single day, with the 10-year yield also falling over 6 basis points, and the dollar index experiencing its largest single-day drop in three months.
The market widely interpreted this as an "emergency market rescue" signal. But the effect may be only temporary — less than 24 hours after the repurchase announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield rebounded to 5.26%. Institutions like Goldman Sachs pointed out that fiscal issues are the root cause, and term premiums may persist long-term.
For the crypto space, the direction of long-term bonds remains critical. If yields break above 5.3% again, valuation pressure on risk assets will continue. This move feels more like a short-term appeasement rather than a structural reversal.👇
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 $BTC $ETH Just now, the CFTC spoke more directly: if Congress doesn't act, regulators might take the lead themselves.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly stated in Washington today:
If the CLARITY Act continues to stall in Congress, the CFTC will use its existing authority to start building a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto asset market.
If the bill ultimately can't move forward, he will ask staff to quickly propose new industry rules.
This statement is much more concrete than "the U.S. supports Crypto."
The market has been waiting:
When will Congress pass crypto regulatory legislation?
Now another path has emerged:
Congress is too slow, so the SEC and CFTC will use their powers to pave the way first.
The signals over the past couple of days have formed a clear line:
The SEC first proposed new token financing rules;
Yesterday, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and even directly named Hyperliquid;
Today, the CFTC chairman said if the bill is stuck, regulators are ready to act first.
What’s truly worth trading on isn’t just a speech.
It’s that U.S. regulatory logic is shifting from:
"Who exactly regulates Crypto?"
to:
"How to keep these markets legally in the U.S.?"
For BTC and ETH, this is the logic behind the entire industry’s risk discount decreasing.
For perpetual contract platforms like HYPE, sensitivity might be even higher—because the CFTC specifically oversees derivatives markets.
But it’s still too early to say "HYPE has been approved to enter the U.S."
The real next confirmation will be whether the CFTC formally proposes new rules targeting crypto spot, perpetual contracts, and other markets.
If rules start to be implemented, this round of regulatory momentum could move from "talk" into the second phase.🔥The July Federal Reserve meeting minutes are out. On the surface, the vote was 9:3 to keep interest rates unchanged, but a closer look reveals intense internal disagreements.
The dissenting votes came from Cleveland Fed's Hamarak, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan, all insisting on a 25 basis point rate hike. Even more striking, Kansas City Fed's Schmidt and St. Louis Fed's Mouselim, who did not have voting rights at the time, later stated that they would have supported a rate hike if they had voting power. The actual number of officials wanting to raise rates far exceeds the voting outcome.
The minutes also contain even more hawkish signals—"many" officials believe that if inflation does not decline, future policy tightening will be necessary. According to the Fed's usual phrasing, "many" approaches half of the 19 decision-makers. Their assessment of the inflation outlook was summed up in four words—"highly uncertain," with the escalation of the Iran conflict further clouding the inflation outlook.
However, the market is no longer buying it. Core CPI inflation in July has already dropped to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, coupled with a negative nonfarm payroll change of 23,000. Citigroup believes this minutes report is unlikely to change the market's already lowered expectations for rate hikes. On the day the minutes were released, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher.
Wash also proposed a bold idea—to reduce the Fed's eight annual meetings to six, giving policymakers more time to study strategic issues. However, the schedule will not be adjusted this year.
The minutes reveal division, but the data is making decisions for the market. This tug-of-war will not stop before September.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 For the second time in a day, BTC shows a Strong signal of a potential high on the 2-hour TF. You don't see this every day, even in a bull market. At the same time, the price has hit the liquidity zone of $72,576-$73,118 on this TF. Usually, the combination of a Strong signal and a liquidity zone is a path to a correction/reversal. And the older the TF with the tags, the higher the probability of execution. At the same time, there are two Strong signal potential highs on the 4-hour TF (and among the TOP-200 crypto assets, 43 assets have such tags, which is a lot), plus from the pastThe reduction in AI computing power hardware costs and the commercialization implementation are driving a marginal rebound in market risk appetite, easing the valuation correction pressure on technology assets. Alibaba Cloud's AI product annualized revenue has exceeded ¥49.5 billion, and the commercial use of the Zhenwu M890 chip has shortened the computing power asset cost recovery cycle to about three years, with EBITDA profit margin rising to 12%. The accelerated mass delivery of chips is converting capital expenditures into actual cash flow, attracting long positions to concentrate on leaders in the computing power industry chain. Going forward, closely monitor the external customer volume growth of the Zhenwu M890 and changes in computing power market pricing power; if the AI division's profit margin falls below 10% in the second half of the fiscal year, this logic will fail.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升An interesting development is happening: SK Hynix has just announced a $29 billion share buyback program, instead of using that money to expand production capacity or increase dividends from the current extremely low 0.18%. 📉 This move says a lot about how the management views the future. When a leading global semiconductor company – which is benefiting greatly from the AI wave – chooses to buy back shares rather than reinvest in production, it is often a sign that they believe the current gross profit margins are unlikely to be sustainable $XRP
This wave of $BTC and $ETH rallying has driven the entire crypto market up, with $XRP standing out particularly.
From the open interest data of Ripple's native contracts, an interesting phenomenon can be observed: while the total open interest measured by the number of coins began to decline, the price of XRP started to rise, surging to around $1.25; meanwhile, the total open interest measured in USD continued to increase.
When XRP reached around $1.25, the USD-denominated open interest saw a sharp surge, pushing the price further up to $1.34, and the open interest measured by coin quantity also slightly increased simultaneously. This is most likely due to lagging momentum chasing the rally entering the market.
Afterwards, both price and open interest entered a correction phase in sync. However, a bullish signal in this round is that the total spot trading volume measured by coin quantity began to recover. This phenomenon indicates that the market is undergoing short covering, position liquidation, or spot buying entry, which is a very positive signal for the continuation and evolution into a medium- to long-term trend. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The crypto market, which had been quiet for many days, suddenly experienced a "bull run" today, with mainstream coins collectively surging sharply. Bitcoin reclaimed the $69,000 level, Ethereum's single-day gain approached 20%, and Hyperliquid soared over 22%. Accompanying the rapid price surge was a large-scale liquidation of short positions.
Mainstream coins all rose across the board
Bitcoin: According to Coingecko data, it is currently priced at $69,165, with a 24-hour increase of 7.4%. The 24-hour price range was $64,123.86–$69,892.23, with a total market cap of $1.393 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $41.587 billion. After maintaining a narrow range in the morning, the price started a rapid rally during the European trading session.
Bitcoin price trend, source: Coingecko
Ethereum: Currently at $2,269.04, with a 24-hour surge of 18.6%, a price range of $1,905.44–$2,318.66, and a market cap of $274.047 billion. Ethereum's recent gains have clearly outpaced Bitcoin, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has also strengthened, indicating accelerated capital inflow back into the Ethereum ecosystem.
Ethereum price trend, source: Coingecko
BNB: Currently at $631.92, up 4.9% in 24 hours, a relatively moderate increase among mainstream large caps, with a price range of $600.92–$635.85.
Solana: Currently at $85.65, up 11.2% in 24 hours, with a price range of $76.59–$86.96 and a market cap of $49.952 billion. Charts show the price accelerating past previous highs.
Hyperliquid (HYPE): The most aggressive gain this round, currently at $71.41, up 22.2% in 24 hours, with a price range of $58.04–$72.28.
Analysis of causes: Macro positive triggers and leverage structure amplifying gains
Based on recent market dynamics and derivatives data, this rally is not driven by a single factor but is the result of multiple overlapping factors: macro liquidity benefits, warming regulatory signals, and concentrated clearing of leveraged short positions.
Cause 1: The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly "injects liquidity," lowering long-term interest rates and boosting risk appetite. On August 19 local time, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, increasing from $2 billion to over $4 billion per operation, covering the period from September 9 to November 4, mainly targeting 10- to 30-year Treasuries. This move was seen as a direct response to the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007 (peaking at 5.34%). After the announcement, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields dropped sharply, U.S. stock futures rose, and the overall improvement in risk appetite provided tailwinds for the crypto market. The Treasury's operation was interpreted by the market as a disguised liquidity injection, coinciding closely with the crypto market's rally.
Cause 2: The White House crypto summit combined with SEC regulatory easing shifts policy sentiment positively. On the same day, former President Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, and heads of the SEC and CFTC at the White House, reiterating the push for the "CLARITY Act" to pass the Senate quickly to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the industry. The day before the summit, the SEC officially proposed a new draft regulation called "Regulation Crypto Assets," aiming to provide crypto projects with an annual financing exemption channel of up to $75 million. The regulatory agencies and the White House released friendly signals intensively in the same week, alleviating previous market concerns about policy uncertainty and supporting capital inflows back into crypto assets.
Trump meeting industry leaders, source: ABCNews
Cause 3: The outflow trend of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has reversed, with whales buying the dip. Previously, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced consecutive days of net outflows, but this rebound is accompanied by signs of warming capital flows. Major products like BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have recorded net subscriptions again, indicating institutional capital replenishment. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that large addresses began accumulating again after about 60 days of continuous selling, providing spot-side support for price stabilization and creating conditions for subsequent leveraged short squeezes.
Cause 4: Concentrated forced liquidation of leveraged shorts creates a typical "short squeeze" scenario. Derivatives data shows that during this rally, the scale of short liquidations far exceeded that of longs. According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, the 24-hour total liquidation amount across the network has expanded to $2.98 billion, with over 170,000 traders forcibly liquidated, overwhelmingly dominated by short liquidations; within a 4-hour window, short liquidations accounted for as much as 93.3%. The largest single liquidation order on the network occurred on the Hyperliquid platform's BTC-USD contract, amounting to $48.8 million. Large forced liquidations of short positions often create momentary buy-side vacuums in the order book, pushing prices to accelerate beyond previous ranges, triggering more stop-loss orders and forming a positive feedback loop of "longs killing shorts."Yesterday, $ETH's big bullish candle just wiped out the shorts.
Today, seeing it hovering around 2350, I really have no patience left.
In the past 24 hours, ETH short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion, with the largest single liquidation at $108 million.
$BTC also broke through $72,000. A couple of days ago, the market's rise seemed absurd, but looking back now, it turns out the absurdity wasn't the price but us shorts still daring to top out.
But this rally can't be blamed solely on a short squeeze.
ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $189 million in a single day, and money has been flowing in for three consecutive days.
Forced liquidations just sparked the fire; ETFs and spot buying are the fuel behind it, which is why ETH is running hotter than BTC.
Even more interestingly, $XAU has surged to $4,500.
Risk assets and safe-haven assets rising together seems contradictory, but both are trading on a weaker dollar, falling long-term yields, and fiscal risks.
The crypto market feeds on liquidity, gold feeds on risk aversion, and neither side is missing out.
Now, ETH's one-hour RSI has exceeded 80—it's too hot, seriously overbought, but the short structure has been completely broken.
Today also coincides with BTC and ETH options expiration, so it's not surprising to see some back-and-forth liquidation before settlement.
If you ask me to short now, I really dare not; if I want to chase, I would only dare to wait for a pullback.
Having been trapped once, I definitely don't want to be trapped again by switching sides.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Is the current macro environment good or not? The market has given the answer.
High interest rates + high inflation expectations + high oil prices + weakening consumption + initial signs of stagflation expectations + bond market risks. Facing this macro environment, I don't really believe #Bitcoin can truly start a new trend against the adverse macro environment and the US stock market's countertrend.
The unique positive factors for crypto, after continuous fermentation from last night to today, how much momentum is left? This is the most important issue #BTC should focus on right now. Losing industry tailwinds, how long can BTC's price rise still be sustained? This is the reality we have to face.
Of course, besides the macro environment and industry tailwinds, more attention should be paid to the data factors driving the price, namely ETF and crypto capital net inflows. On the 19th, ETF net inflows hit the highest data in 3 months. Looking ahead to next week, we need to watch whether ETFs can maintain stable net inflows or gradually decline until returning to net outflows. The logic for mainstream crypto funds USDT/USDC is the same.
As for the market, the most optimistic scenario currently is to test around 74,200 this week. The upcoming macro uncertainties are still quite high. Next week there are Nvidia earnings + core PCE, obviously the current "policy-driven market" in crypto may not be able to hold up! #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ From the data, it indeed arrived: Bitcoin surged over 8% in a single day, once touching 70,000; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, jumping straight from 1900 to 2300. The entire network's shorts were bloodied within 24 hours, with liquidations exceeding 2.7 billion. The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins showed a rare almost all-green performance. Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom has been reached; Wang Chun even outright declared the slogan "the bear market is over." However, in my view, this is still more of a rebound than a reversal. The three bullish factors driving this market rise all have exaggerated elements behind them. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver. 1⃣ Ministry of Finance expanding long-term bond repurchases — this is the most direct and primary reason for this wave. The logic is straightforward: rising government bond yields increase interest expenses and widen the fiscal deficit, prompting the government to intervene with repurchases, causing yields to drop sharply. Government bond yields are the denominator in all valuation models; when the denominator falls, capital naturally spills over from bonds back into risk assets. Meanwhile, gold also rose back to 4500 — gold and Bitcoin are the two assets that most directly counteract currency depreciation. However, the Ministry of Finance's repurchase only raised the single repurchase limit; the quarterly total remains unchanged. Moreover, the funds come from issuing new short-term debt — selling short and buying long, essentially a swap.$HYPE surged 18% in a single day to around $72 due to the White House's mention of compliance expectations for entering the US market, then profit-taking quickly occurred, and the correction continued to widen. This high-volatility asset driven by news moves fast up and down, and the battle within the current price range will determine the short-term direction. If the CLARITY Act passes the Senate vote smoothly in September, the compliance narrative can still support the valuation midpoint; however, the 9-3 hawkish split in the FOMC minutes suppresses risk appetite. If BTC falls below 71500, HYPE, as a high-beta asset, will likely experience a larger pullback than mainstream assets. Next, focus on whether trading volume can continue to expand around $72, rather than relying solely on sentiment to sustain it.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在$WLD The safer LONG is:
Entry: $0.355–$0.359
Confirmation: 15m/1H bullish rejection and reclaim above ~$0.359
SL: $0.340
TP1: $0.369–$0.371
TP2: $0.377
TP3: $0.385
Extended: $0.400$DOS understood, crypto players now have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI—these low-market-cap coins skyrocketing dozens of times. So now they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins. Concepts like real-world asset tokenization (RWA), top-tier high-performance L1 universal new public chains—although these projects sound grand and impressive, to players they are irrelevant and hold no interest. Instead, these crypto players prefer grassroots culture and coins that can make a comeback.$XRP surged from around 0.98 to 1.3443 within 24 hours, then rapidly fell back to the 1.23-1.25 range, with a volatility exceeding 30%. Currently, both bulls and bears are densely opening positions near 1.25, with 50x and 100x leverage positions existing simultaneously. The outcome of the battle at this price level will determine the direction for the next few days.
First, let's look at the priority of driving factors. BTC has risen above 72000 and is maintaining sideways movement in the 72400-72600 range, which is the core external condition for XRP's current breakout from the 0.98 bottom. XRP's daily increase is 12.88%, far exceeding SOL's 1.56% and DOGE's 7.04% in the same period, indicating that funds have made a clear concentrated choice among mainstream altcoins. However, the retracement speed from 1.3443 to 1.23 is also astonishing, signaling a loosening of high-level chips.
Bullish scenario: If BTC continues to consolidate above 72000 or even pushes toward 73000, and XRP stabilizes in the 1.23-1.25 range before rising back above 1.28, then a second test of the previous high at 1.3443 is possible. The trigger condition is BTC not breaking below 71500 and XRP closing continuously above 1.25 on the four-hour chart. The invalidation signal is BTC falling below 71000 or XRP dropping below 1.20 and failing to recover within one hour.
Sideways scenario: BTC repeatedly tests the top near 72000 without breaking through or sharply falling. Under this environment, XRP is likely to oscillate widely between 1.20 and 1.30, with high-leverage long and short positions being repeatedly liquidated. The variable to watch is whether XRP's four-hour volume continues to shrink—if volume rapidly declines, it indicates a delay in directional choice and an extended range-bound battle.
Bearish scenario: BTC falls from 72000 to below 70000, or ETH quickly breaks below 2200 from above 2300, putting overall altcoins under pressure. In this case, XRP is likely to lose the 1.20 support, with the downside target at the 1.10-1.05 range. The trigger condition is BTC closing below 71000 on the four-hour chart. A variable to note is ETH, which is currently also retreating from a high near 2315; if ETH weakens first, XRP's decline may be faster than expected.
The biggest risk in the current market is the density of high-leverage positions on both sides. According to data, 50x and 100x positions ranging from 200,000U to 330,000U are opened long and short in the 1.23-1.28 range. Any rapid breakout in either direction could trigger a chain liquidation, amplifying volatility. This means that even if the directional judgment is correct, the intermediate spikes could exceed expectations.
The two most critical variables to observe in the next 24 hours are whether BTC can hold 71500 and the direction of XRP's four-hour volume changes near 1.25.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在If you're writing crypto threads, breaking down projects, or explaining concepts online you're already doing the entry-level version of a real Web3 job.
Here's what it actually looks like
What it is creating educational content, research reports, or project breakdowns that help people understand Crypto & Web3 for an audience, a protocol, a media outlet, or a DAO.
Who pays for it: protocols hire writers for blog posts and documentation. Research firms and media outlets pay for project analysis. DAOs sometimes fund contributors who produce educational content for their community.
How people usually start: by building a public track record first consistent, accurate content on X, Substack, or Mirror. Projects and outlets look at what you've already published before they pay you to write more.
The skill that actually matters here isn't fancy writing it's accuracy. Getting facts right, citing sources, separating verified information from speculation. That's what makes content worth paying for instead of just another opinion.
Realistic timeline this isn't a week one" income stream. Most people build 3-6+ months of consistent public work before opportunities start coming either inbound someone reaches out or through direct outreach.
If you're already doing threads like this one, you're not starting from zero you're building the portfolio that gets you paid for it later.
Anyone here already earning from crypto content or research? What did that first opportunity look like?$POPMART ’s latest earnings look strong on the surface: H1 revenue reached ¥17.17B, up 23.8%, while net profit rose 10.1%. That gap matters. LABUBU is cooling, while Star People has surged nearly 6x. The bigger test now is whether POP MART can keep rotating between multiple IPs instead of relying on one blockbuster. Six IPs already generated more than ¥1B each, showing the IP incubation engine is working. But overseas growth is losing momentum, leaving the domestic market to carry more weight. SDon't see this rally as the "last struggle"—it is precisely proof of Bitcoin and Ethereum returning to their original purpose.
The 2008 global financial crisis shattered trust in traditional banking. Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin $BTC whitepaper with the vision of creating a decentralized peer-to-peer transaction system that does not rely on trust or central authority. In 2014, Vitalik Buterin published the Ethereum whitepaper, aiming to build a permissionless, neutral, and transparent "world computer" that expands blockchain from simple value transfer to complex social and financial collaboration.
More than a decade later, these original intentions are being validated one by one by market demand.
Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins and an annual inflation rate of only 0.8%, far lower than gold's 1.7% and the US dollar's average annual growth of 4% over the past five years—the "digital gold" attributes of anti-inflation and censorship resistance have never been clearer. When the US Treasury expands debt repurchases and long-term yields fall, capital naturally flows to hard assets. When the White House formally includes digital assets in national financial strategy discussions, "decentralization" is no longer just an ideal but a real option in an era of sovereign credit uncertainty.
Ethereum $ETH's Turing-complete smart contracts have taken DeFi, asset tokenization, and on-chain settlement from concept to a trillion-dollar market. It is not a "tech toy" but an operating system reshaping global financial infrastructure.
This is not a struggle; it is the fulfillment of historical logic.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 📜 July FOMC Meeting Minutes Released: More Than 3 Members Wanted a Rate Hike, Internal Debate Was Heated
On August 19, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July 28-29 meeting. The surface result was a 9:3 vote to keep rates unchanged, but the truth revealed in the minutes is far more complex than the voting outcome.
The official dissenters were Harker, Kashkari, and Logan. However, the minutes show that "several" participants advocated for a rate hike at the time, believing that price pressures were broad-based. Two other regional Fed presidents without voting rights also expressed support for a rate increase. More notably—"many" officials believed that if inflation does not come down, policy tightening might be necessary in the future.
Inflation concerns are at the core. Officials described the inflation outlook with four words—"highly uncertain." The minutes mentioned three upward factors: tariff pass-through, energy costs related to Middle East conflicts, and overall demand driven by AI development. Some officials felt that the current financial conditions were "not sufficiently restrictive" to push inflation back to 2%.
Waller also proposed a bold idea—to reduce the number of annual policy meetings from eight to six, believing it could allow for more information gathering and give policymakers more strategic thinking time.
After the minutes were released, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, and the VIX dropped 6%. The probability of a September rate hike has fallen from over 70% at the end of July to about 36%. Although the minutes leaned hawkish, retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, and other data released after the July meeting have weakened, and the market is no longer buying it.
The minutes show division, but the data is making decisions for the market. This tug-of-war won’t stop before September.
$BTC Behind Pump.fun's daily revenue of tens of millions of US dollars: less than 1% graduation rate for millions of tokens, can retail investors really make money in this gamble?
On-chain data is brutally revealing the harsh and bloody truth behind the Meme coin frenzy.
The Solana ecosystem token issuance platform Pump.fun's daily fee income has repeatedly surpassed the $10 million mark, even surpassing the combined global daily fees of Ethereum mainnet and Uniswap multiple times.
Across major communities, myths of turning a few dozen dollars into tens of thousands are widely spread, making countless retail investors envious and excited, rushing into various internal launch pools, fantasizing about becoming the next lucky one to catch a hundredfold golden dog.
However, according to hardcore data from Dune's on-chain penetration statistics, the reality is suffocatingly cruel:
Among the millions of Meme tokens issued on the platform, less than 1.2% successfully complete the bonding curve and graduate to launch on Raydium.
Even more shocking is that among all independent retail wallets participating in trading, the proportion of addresses that ultimately achieve a cumulative net profit exceeding $1000 falls below 0.5% across the entire network.
This means that over 99.5% of the trend-following retail investors across the network have been serving as precisely harvested liquidity fuel throughout this seemingly lively frenzy.
Why are retail investors almost certain to lose in the industrialized assembly line Meme token issuance ecosystem?
The answer lies in the game's inherently negative expected value (Negative EV) meat grinder design:
First, millisecond-level plundering by high-frequency sniper bots.
At the 0th block of each new pool creation, professional quantitative market-making teams and sniper bots have already locked in the cheapest chips through private RPC nodes and bribes. By the time retail investors see the token on the front-end interface and manually click to buy, the price has already been raised several times by bots and the DEV repeatedly placing orders.
Second, ruthless dumping by dark multi-wallet wash trading.
Issuers (DEVs) often pre-position large shares through dozens of dispersed anonymous clean addresses. Once retail investors follow the trend and push the market cap to tens of thousands of dollars, the whales will smash the liquidity pool in a very short time by splitting orders in batches, leaving chaos behind.
Coupled with the platform's mandatory 1% fee on every transaction and slippage losses caused by extremely high-frequency trading, retail investors' principal is rapidly eroded through repeated chasing of rising and falling prices.
This is not a community revolution of value discovery but an on-chain vampire casino completely dominated by algorithms and bots.
Facing such an extremely asymmetric and brutal game, my own operating principle is very firm:
Strictly define Meme coin speculation as entertainment consumption, never get carried away, and never invest more than 1% of my total position. Rather than giving money to bots in an internal meat grinder with a win rate of less than 0.5%, anchor core chips in infrastructure with real commercial barriers and deterministic cash flow.
In the Meme frenzy with a win rate below 0.5%, is your current record profit or floating loss? Facing the harvesting routine of assembly line launches, will you continue to participate in internal dog-catching?
---
The above content represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ZEC has a slight pullback, just a normal adjustment.
On the chart, $563, down 1.37%, with an intraday high of 596 and a low of 547. In the past two days, it surged from around 510 to 596, up over 80 dollars, so today's pullback is completely reasonable. The volume has shrunk compared to yesterday, indicating that it's just profit-taking, not panic selling, so no need to worry too much.
Data perspective:
· Up 15.4% in 7 days, still making big gains this week.
· Up 10.8% in 30 days, a good return for the month.
· Down 7.4% in 90 days, but rapidly recovering.
· Up 128% in 180 days, long-term holders are still making substantial profits.
· The super trend line is at 493, price firmly above it, the bullish trend remains intact.
From a technical standpoint, 547 is today's low and short-term support. If it can hold above 550, after consolidation it can push above 600 again. The resistance above is at 596; breaking through that points to a target range of 620-650. If 547 doesn't hold, it may pull back to 520-530, but this won't change the medium-term upward trend.
Trading strategy:
Those holding should continue to hold, moving stop-loss up to 530. Those looking to enter should wait for a pullback to 545-550 without breaking it before buying, or wait for a volume breakout above 600 to chase. Those already in should hold steady and not be shaken out by this small pullback.
$ZEC has risen solidly from just over 400 to nearly 600. Today's pullback is on low volume, a typical healthy correction. As long as the overall market doesn't crash, it's highly likely to continue its upward momentum after this adjustment.$BTC IS BACK AT $70K — BUT DON’T CONFUSE A SHORT SQUEEZE WITH A NEW BULL RUN.
Bitcoin has bounced back hard, and every small dip is getting bought almost immediately. That looks strong — but I’m still not convinced $70K is safely secured.
A big part of this move came from shorts getting squeezed and forced to buy back higher. Now that BTC is around $70K, many trapped holders finally have a chance to exit at breakeven. That means fresh buying is facing a wall of potential sellers.
#DailyOrbit $BTC
Everyone is looking for the reasons behind BTC's rise, and there are actually three core factors:
First, the pressure on U.S. debt is increasing. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond once surged above 5.3%, hitting a multi-year high. As the world starts worrying about how to handle the $40 trillion debt, the market naturally begins to seek assets that are "not easily diluted." Gold and Bitcoin have re-entered the investment spotlight.
Second, the U.S. regulatory stance has changed. The SEC recently proposed a regulatory framework for crypto assets, shifting from mere crackdowns to designing compliance pathways for Crypto. This is the biggest change for institutional funds.
Third, Wall Street is really entering the market. At last night's White House Crypto summit, SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Kraken, Chainlink, Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, and DTCC all appeared.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Today's Bitcoin surge is not fundamentally about Bitcoin itself.
Don't rush to call it a bull run; let me walk you through the logic.
The trigger was the U.S. Treasury stepping in. The 30-year Treasury yield soared to a 2019 high, above 5.3%—who can withstand that? So the Treasury doubled its long-term bond buyback from $2 billion to $4 billion, directly suppressing yields. As interest rates dropped, money flowed out of Treasuries and back into risk assets—Bitcoin happens to be in that pool.
Then came the short squeeze. Too many shorts in the market; after months of decline, everyone formed a mindset that a rebound was a shorting opportunity. But in just 4 hours, $1.4 billion in shorts were liquidated, forcing shorts to buy back to cover, pushing prices higher—this is a short squeeze.
Think about it, really think about it—Dao Ge has spoken!
But honestly, most of this rally comes from forced buying, not active allocation. Those liquidated buyers are done; they won't come back tomorrow. Strategy rose 13% today, Coinbase 11%, but both are still down over 35% year-to-date—a one-day rebound can't fill a year's gap.
The $69,000 level is critical. If it holds, the story continues; if not, today is just a rebound.
I've been in this market for 12 years, and I only believe one thing: if you don't know why it goes up, you won't know why it goes down. You have to be on one side or the other.
#BTC breaks $72,000, can this rally continue? #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
On August 20, $POPMART Pop Mart released its mid-2026 financial results. The core signal of this report is: after the LABUBU craze subsided, Pop Mart is undergoing a "gear shift" in growth momentum — moving from a single blockbuster-driven model to support from a multi-IP matrix. Whether this transition can succeed is currently the market's main focus.
📊 Performance Overview: Proactive Slowdown, Quality First
In the first half of the year, Pop Mart achieved revenue of ¥17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; adjusted net profit was ¥5.16 billion, with a net profit margin of 30%.
However, this result is significantly below market expectations (previously forecasted revenue of ¥19.98 billion and net profit of about ¥6.64 billion). More notably, profit growth (10.1%) lagged behind revenue growth (23.8%), and gross margin slightly declined from 70.3% to 69.7%.
CEO Wang Ning candidly admitted at the earnings call: "It is very likely we will not meet the 20% growth target set at the beginning of the year," and positioned 2026 as a "year of consolidation" for the company — focusing on strengthening fundamentals and optimizing channels rather than pursuing short-term scale expansion.
🎯 IP Matrix: LABUBU "Retreats," Twinkle Twinkle "Takes Over"
The change in IP structure is the most noteworthy highlight of this report.
· THE MONSTERS family, to which LABUBU belongs: revenue was ¥4.454 billion in the first half, still ranking first but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. This is a cyclical phenomenon reflecting the normalization of blockbuster IP heat.
· Twinkle Twinkle: revenue surged from ¥389 million to ¥2.65 billion, an explosive 580.6% increase, becoming the second largest IP. The Valentine’s Day "Heartbeat" series sold out in seconds, with hidden edition second-hand prices nearly 13 times higher.
· Other IPs blossomed comprehensively: CRYBABY (¥1.63 billion, +34%), DIMOO (¥1.62 billion, +46.5%), SKULLPANDA (¥1.55 billion, +27.1%), Hirono Ono (¥1.01 billion, +38.5%). Six IPs exceeded ¥1 billion in revenue in the first half, and 11 IPs surpassed ¥100 million.
🤔 Can Multiple IPs Take Over? — Three Positive Signals and Three Concerns
✅ Positive Signals
Signal 1: The IP incubation system is validated. Twinkle Twinkle grew from ¥389 million to ¥2.65 billion in just one year, proving Pop Mart’s ability to continuously incubate new IPs.
Signal 2: Revenue sources are more diversified. The concentration of top IPs has decreased, significantly reducing the company’s reliance on a single blockbuster.
Signal 3: Plush category rises. Plush product revenue reached ¥9.825 billion, up 60% year-on-year, accounting for over half (57.2%) of total revenue for the first time, surpassing figurines as the largest category.
⚠️ Concerns
Concern 1: Top concentration remains high. THE MONSTERS’ revenue is 1.7 times that of second-place Twinkle Twinkle; LABUBU’s popularity changes still heavily impact the overall situation.
Concern 2: Overseas business under pressure. Overseas revenue was ¥4.972 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year. Both Asia-Pacific (-9.7%) and Americas (-16.5%) declined.
Concern 3: Online traffic dividend fades. Overseas online revenue sharply declined — Asia-Pacific -39.8%, Americas -45.6%, Europe -59%. The company is shifting from relying on social media buzz to refined store operations.
🌍 Regional Differentiation: China Leads, Overseas Adjusts
· China market: revenue ¥12.2 billion, up 47.3%, with share rising from 59.7% to 71%. Online revenue increased 62.7%, and the self-developed box-opening machine app surged 83.3%.
· Overseas market: offline stores continue to expand (net increase of 36 stores), but online contraction largely offset offline growth. Europe and other regions achieved 5.9% growth driven by offline expansion.
💎 Summary
Pop Mart is transitioning from the "LABUBU era" to the "multi-IP era." The explosive growth of Twinkle Twinkle proves the effectiveness of the IP incubation system, and six IPs exceeding ¥1 billion indicate the matrix is taking shape. However, LABUBU remains the absolute leader, overseas online channels are collectively slowing, and profit growth lags behind revenue growth — the multi-IP relay has taken shape but is still some distance from being "securely caught."
Wang Ning’s candidness is noteworthy: "Last year we indeed had luck; many unexpected traffic sources brought very rapid performance growth, but also exposed many internal management issues." The company’s first announcement of a HKD 2 billion to 5 billion share repurchase plan also conveys long-term confidence.
Pop Mart is experiencing the growing pains of shifting from "blockbuster-driven" to "system-driven." Whether multiple IPs can truly take over may only be answered by the full-year 2026 financial report.
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The above content is only a summary of financial report information and market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. 140U Challenge to 10000U｜Day 130
Initial principal: 140 USDT
Current total assets equivalent: 21522.78 CNY, today's profit -479.21 (-2.17%)
Starting from 140U aiming for the 10,000U goal, now on day 130, the account has experienced a slight pullback. Trading cannot always be all green candles; pullbacks are part of live trading. It also makes me question myself again: what is a trading system, and what truly belongs to your own trading system.
Collecting indicators everywhere and copying others' strategies is not your own system.
A trading system is a big framework: what market conditions to trade, what to avoid, position limits, stop-loss standards, minimum risk-reward ratio, setting all rules clearly.
Your own trading system is adapting this framework to fit your own mindset and capital tolerance. A strategy that works well for others but you can't hold positions with it, then it doesn't belong to you.
I have also been thinking: does compounding rely on a moment of insight or on accumulated live trading experience? Insight can enlighten you, but only experience honed through countless wins and losses can turn paper rules into instinct. Epiphany is just a beam of light; long-term accumulation is the path forward.
Brief market bullish/bearish analysis:
BTC: Overall large timeframe remains bullish, short-term entering consolidation and correction. Resistance above is obvious; if it cannot hold above key resistance, it will continue to test support below; only by holding resistance can the upward momentum restart. The consolidation phase is not suitable for chasing highs or panic selling; wait for clear structure before acting.
ETH: Moves in tandem with BTC, showing weakness. Bulls need to break above resistance to continue the trend; if pressure persists downward, it will further test support zones. Frequent short-term shakeouts and false breakouts increase; open positions must strictly use stop-loss.
SanDisk SNDK: After a prior short squeeze surge, now in high-level consolidation digestion. Bearish chips accumulate, sudden sharp spikes can occur anytime; upward requires sustained volume to rally again; once volume breaks support, a correction will follow, so blind chasing longs is not advisable.
SK Hynix: Moves with altcoin sector, volatile. Heavily influenced by overall market sentiment; upward depends on mainstream coins leading; if the market weakens, its pullback will be larger. It is a high-risk asset, suitable only for small position speculation.
Today's account slight pullback of -2.17% reminds me more: after continuous profits, risk control is easiest to relax. Even if you understand the structure, you can't withstand emotional heavy positions.
The winning short position at GPS high point was a signal from the system; today's pullback is a reminder from the market. There is no always correct judgment, only risk control that must always be upheld.
Compounding is not about a single huge profit, but about your own trading system, making big gains and small losses through cycles of market moves. Accept pullbacks, respect the market, and continue steadily toward 10000U. WE’RE SO BACK?
$BTC just ripped through $70K and pushed above $72K, while $ETH delivered an even stronger move, climbing nearly 18% toward $2,300.
But the move isn’t happening in isolation.
U.S. Treasury bond buybacks reportedly increased from $2B to $4B per operation, pushing yields lower and helping fuel a rotation toward risk assets.
Then came the squeeze.
More than $3B in crypto positions were liquidated as shorts got caught on the wrong side of the move.
Spot BTC ETFs also saw more than $517M in inflows, adding another layer of demand.
This is exactly why crypto can move so violently.
One shift in liquidity expectations → yields react → risk appetite returns → shorts get squeezed → momentum accelerates.
The big question now:
Is this the beginning of the next bull leg, or just a powerful relief rally?
I’m bullish on the momentum, but I’m not chasing vertical candles.
Let $BTC hold the breakout, let $ETH confirm the strength, and watch whether liquidity starts rotating into altcoins.
If those pieces align, things could get very interesting.
Are we finally back?$ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
1. Plain-language breakdown of the news: The confidence not to fall and the root cause of the inability to rise
Four core reasons why the bottom can be firmly supported and a deep drop is unlikely
1. US Treasury liquidity easing, the overall environment has become thoroughly accommodative (the fundamental backing)
The US Treasury Department doubled the long-term bond repurchase quota starting September, causing long-term bond yields to plunge and the dollar to weaken. With fewer easy gains from US Treasuries, large amounts of capital have exited the bond market and flooded into crypto and US tech stocks. As long as Treasury yields don’t suddenly rebound sharply, the strong foundation of this rally won’t collapse; if prices fall, funds will immediately step in to buy, making a cliff-like crash very unlikely.
2. The regulatory sword hanging overhead has been put away; Ethereum benefits even more than BTC
Ethereum’s biggest concern was being targeted by the SEC and nearly classified as a security, making institutions hesitant to buy. Now, the SEC has issued new rules granting regulatory exemptions to mature public chains; the White House is urging Congress to expedite the CLARITY Act, eliminating panic over regulatory crackdowns. Institutional funds that were previously cautious have now massively entered, which is key to Ethereum’s recent outperformance over Bitcoin.
3. Ethereum ETFs have finally stopped bleeding money and are now buying in with real capital to support the price
In recent months, ETFs were continuously redeemed, but on August 19, there was a net inflow of nearly $190 million in a single day—the largest in nearly ten months. Leading asset managers like BlackRock have started to buy back in batches, steadily raising the support level. Even if there is a short-term pullback, it’s difficult for selling pressure to intensify and weaken the market.
4. Massive short positions have been liquidated, significantly reducing short-term selling pressure above
After breaking the key $2100 level, many leveraged short positions on Ethereum were liquidated in a chain reaction. Shorts had to buy back to close positions, forcibly pushing the price from $1900 to a high of $2334, clearing out more than half of the short resistance above in the short term.
Current hard issues blocking a further surge at $2310
1. Nearly 20% surge in two days, too rapid, profit-taking is underway
A few hundred dollars gained in just two days, short-term bottom-fishing funds have made substantial profits. After reaching the $2334 high, many took profits and sold, and buying momentum couldn’t keep up, causing the price to slowly fall back to $2310. Technical indicators are seriously overbought, so a pause for sideways consolidation and cooling of overheated indicators is necessary.
2. All positive factors have been realized at once, no new explosive news to follow
US Treasury easing, regulatory relaxation, ETF inflows, and short covering—all four major positives have been fully digested. Now only existing funds are trading back and forth, with no new major macro news, so the upward momentum is clearly insufficient.
3. The bill is only an expectation and won’t be enacted soon; large institutions won’t chase highs
The US Congress is still in recess; the regulatory bill will only start its process in September and won’t take effect soon. Large institutions have a unified approach: buy on dips, but will not add large positions above $2300. This rally is supported by short-term speculative funds and short covering; long-term incremental funds are absent, making sustained new highs difficult.
4. The Federal Reserve keeps options open; inflation data could overturn the easing trend anytime
The Fed has clearly stated that if inflation data rebounds, it can restart rate hikes. Upcoming US CPI and nonfarm payroll data, if strong, will cause Treasury yields to rise sharply, quickly cooling this rally driven by rate cut expectations. This is the biggest medium- to long-term risk.
2. Plain-language market analysis, key price levels to distinguish strength or weakness (current price $2310)
1. Intraday short-term strength/weakness dividing line: $2280
Current price $2310 is above this level, firmly holding $2280 means today will be a high-level, slightly strong consolidation with small ups and downs; if volume breaks below $2280, short-term buying enthusiasm will cool immediately, and price will head toward the core support at $2200.
2. The most important defensive bottom line for this rally: $2200
This was a resistance level for several months, which after breaking has become a strong moat for bulls. As long as $2200 is not decisively broken, the uptrend remains intact; if $2200 is lost, this short squeeze rally will end in the short term, returning to a $2000-range consolidation.
3. Immediate strong resistance: $2330 ~ $2400
The intraday high and previous trapped positions concentration zone. To break new highs and restart a big rally, volume must push and hold above $2400; currently stuck at $2310, it is heavily suppressed by selling from this zone.
4. Mid- to long-term resistance: $2500
Requires continued weakening of Treasury yields and sustained large inflows into Ethereum ETFs over many days; unlikely to reach in the short term.
Market summary
The daily chart has completely broken out of the long-term weak $1850-$1950 range, with the mid-term trend turning from weak to strong; however, hourly momentum is exhausted, and rallies meet selling pressure.
In short: the bottom is very solid and a big drop is unlikely; new highs are hard to achieve, entering a consolidation phase after a big rally.
Short-term trading range: $2200 — $2400
3. Three most likely subsequent scenarios
1. Highest probability: sideways tug-of-war between $2200 and $2400
If Bitcoin holds above $70,000 and Treasury yields remain stable, Ethereum will oscillate within this range. Profit-taking from the big rally will be digested slowly, overbought indicators repaired, following Bitcoin’s small fluctuations, mainly consolidating with no big moves up or down.
2. Another surge to challenge $2400 and test $2500
Two conditions must be met simultaneously:
① Treasury yields continue to fall, the dollar does not rebound, and US inflation data shows no negatives;
② BTC firmly holds above $71,000, and overall market risk appetite remains strong;
Only with volume pushing and holding above $2400 is there a chance to reach $2500; missing one condition means the rally is likely a false breakout.
3. Start a wave of pullback, giving back some gains
If Treasury yields rebound, Bitcoin falls below $71,000, and ETH breaks the short-term lifeline at $2280, it will further test the key support at $2200; if $2200 is decisively broken, price will quickly fall back to the $2000-$2050 range to repair this rally. NVIDIA is attempting to reshape market expectations in China with a compliance-structured LPU inference chip, but the supply chain's stocking impulse is clashing head-on with the local entry approval uncertainties.
Risk appetite around $NVDA capital is being reactivated, and the market is beginning to price in expectations for small-batch shipments starting by year-end.
Although the compliance design enabled by technology licensing bypasses computing power downgrade restrictions, it shifts greater uncertainty onto the policy review and local substitution game between the two regions.
Whether order intentions can smoothly convert into actual revenue entirely depends on the pace of entry permit implementation; the causal transmission between the two remains to be confirmed.
If early orders are delivered on schedule and no regulatory resistance emerges, the capital reallocation toward the hardware sector will strengthen the valuation midpoint, but if shipment pace delays, this momentum will quickly fade.
If entry approval drags on without progress, the bullish positions betting on incremental space from early-stage negotiations will face concentrated expectation corrections, and risk aversion sentiment will accelerate the suppression of short-term preference.
What truly needs caution is the impact of tightened policy reviews on the risk premium of tech assets, which would directly invalidate all optimistic scenarios based on the shipment window.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether regulators in both regions release the first clear tone signal regarding the compliance of this architecture.
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
Two-day surge: The core logic behind the rally of $BTC and $ETH
In the past two days, the crypto market exploded across the board, with Bitcoin rising over 11% in 24 hours; Ethereum's performance was even more aggressive, with a nearly 20% increase in 24 hours, leading the mainstream coins. During the same period, over $3.3 billion in liquidations occurred across the network, with more than 90% being short positions.
This round of the market rally is the result of multiple factors resonating together. The most direct catalyst came from U.S. regulatory developments: Trump convened a crypto industry summit to push the CLARITY Act, combined with the CFTC's alternative regulatory proposals advancing simultaneously, significantly easing the long-standing policy uncertainty suppressing the market; the SEC also relaxed compliance requirements for startup project issuances, continuously improving industry fundamentals expectations.
On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury increased long-term bond repurchase operations, driving long-term U.S. Treasury yields to quickly fall from high levels, opening a valuation recovery window for global risk assets. Crypto assets with longer durations are particularly sensitive to marginal changes in liquidity.
Ethereum's gains significantly outpaced Bitcoin's because, first, after the market risk appetite rebounded, funds spread to more elastic assets; second, clearer regulations provide stronger marginal benefits to the Ethereum ecosystem, offering greater valuation recovery potential.
On the derivatives side, short squeezes acted as an amplifier for the rally, with massive forced liquidations of short positions creating positive buy-side feedback, combined with increased Bitcoin ETF volumes and institutional capital entering simultaneously, jointly driving this rapid rise.
Short-term upward momentum is sufficient, but uncertainties remain regarding the progress of the legislation and the sustainability of U.S. Treasury yields Is Bassett's rescue of U.S. Treasuries effective? The fact proves it is, but it still cannot truly save the U.S. Treasury crisis! After the Treasury Department's policy announcement, the yields on short-term, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year long bonds all fell briefly, but the key point is that in the subsequent 20-year U.S. Treasury auction, signs of weak demand appeared. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 On the day of Bassett's rescue, during the 20-year Treasury auction, the actual winning bid yield was 5.204%, while the 20-year Treasury yield before the auction was 5.199%. This means the Treasury Department had to offer an additional 0.5 basis points to sell the long bonds. This data obviously slapped Bassett in the face, indicating that Bassett's previous long bond rescue was only effective for short-term sentiment. However, as investors, they do not trust the current duration yield and require the Treasury Department to offer higher rates to choose to buy. This sign at least proves that Bassett's rescue had already become ineffective at that time! Tonight, Bassett continues to speak, mentioning several points that make me feel like a forced attempt to save face: 1. Emphasizing that the 30-year Treasury's liquidity is too poor, and the yield increase is not only due to inflation and economic growth issues. 2. The Treasury Department has a powerful set of tools for the government bond market; this mechanism can recall $4 billion more strongly and effectively (I have a sharper knife in hand). 3. The repurchase quota is not necessarily fixed at $4 billion; the announcement clarified at least $4 billion, not a fixed $4 billion, opening future expectations. 4. Emphasizing part of the $4 billion... 📊 First, let's look at the current situation: a tale of two extremes. Bitcoin surged over 8% on Wednesday, breaking through $70,000, reaching its highest level since June. Ethereum was even stronger, rising more than 20% in 24 hours, surpassing $2,300. Solana was relatively mild, consolidating in the $76-$80 range. Storage stocks tell a completely different story—SanDisk plummeted 9% on August 18 alone, Micron fell 7%, and SK Hynix dropped nearly 10% intraday. SanDisk's price peaked at $2354 this year, once halved to $1119, and now rebounds, fluctuating between $1600 and $1741. The same market, two different scripts. Who is right and who is wrong? ⚔️ Manstein's Strategic Theory: Blitzkrieg vs Elastic Defense The core idea of WWII General Manstein is switching between two strategic forms: “Blitzkrieg” — concentrating forces, rapid breakthrough, one decisive strike; “Elastic Defense” — active withdrawal, luring the enemy deep, waiting for the right moment, and counterattacking. Bitcoin and Ethereum are waging a “Blitzkrieg” — $1.7 billion short liquidations, continuous ETF inflows, Trump endorsements, Treasury easing, SEC loosening—five forces simultaneously pushing prices straight up. This is a classic concentrated force breakthrough. Storage stocks are playing “Elastic Defense” — explosive earnings but stock prices plunge; good news is already priced in and becomes bad news. SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, but next quarter guidance of $10.55 billion falls short of the expected $10.8 billion. The market is saying: “You scored 99 points, but I want 100.” So it pulls back first Pop Mart is still growing, but the growth engine is clearly cooling. Revenue beat-up is less impressive when profit growth lags, overseas demand weakens, and LABUBU momentum fades.
The bullish angle is IP diversification: Star People’s surge shows new characters can take over. But 2026 looks more like a consolidation year than another hyper-growth year.
**Bottom line: growth is shifting from LABUBU-driven hype to a broader IP ecosystem.**Bitcoin breaking through $72,000 drives sentiment in crypto concept stocks, with US stock $CRCL rising for two consecutive days to around $84. The core issue lies in whether the crypto market's short squeeze rally can be converted into liquidity support backed by actual USDC issuance.
Market data shows that after a surge of over 9.5% on August 19, on August 20 during US trading hours, $CRCL rose from $79.5 to a high of $85.28, maintaining a strong hold around $84, with trading volume expanding in sync with the crypto market breakout. The strengthening of US tech stocks and the crypto market has formed a cross-market linkage. During the consolidation of US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, capital is concentratedly repricing crypto risk premium assets.
The driving forces in order are: the crypto beta premium triggered by Bitcoin breaking $72,000, the revaluation of concept stocks brought by the rebound in US stock risk appetite, and capital expectations for stablecoin scale expansion. The intraday 7% and previous day’s over 9.5% consecutive gains confirm that short-term momentum is fully dominated by the resonance of risk appetite between US stocks and the crypto market.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is Bitcoin holding above $72,000 and extending toward $75,000, accompanied by a weakening US dollar index and macro liquidity release. Under this path, it is necessary to observe whether the $85.28 high can be broken with high volume; a failure signal would be a rapid outflow of funds from the crypto market and a sharp drop in concept stock turnover.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is the abrupt halt of the crypto market short squeeze rally causing profit-taking, or USDC actual issuance growth falling short of expectations. At this time, $84 will face resistance, and breaking below the $79.5 starting point indicates locking in of chasing funds; a failure signal would be Bitcoin surging again with increased volume.
If the US stock interest rate environment suddenly tightens causing a US dollar rebound, the cross-market linkage logic will be interrupted, and valuation recovery will face correction.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on Bitcoin’s turnover rate above $72,000, changes in actual USDC issuance, and the US dollar index trend.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在$DOGE gained +11.56% that day, reaching a high of 0.08351, pulled up sharply from 0.07243, looking like the start of a new rally. But the signals from the contracts side aren't as aligned: open interest only increased by 5.38% during the same period, while the price rose 11.56%, with the growth rate less than half, indicating that the price push was not driven by new leveraged long positions but by spot buying combined with short sellers capitulating and closing positions. The long-short account ratio is more direct: 24 hours ago it was 4.25, now it dropped to 3.49; during the price rise, the proportion of long accounts actually shrank, meaning some are taking profits while the price rises. The funding rate is 0.0001, with longs paying no premium, so it’s neither crowded nor overheated. My judgment is that without leveraged buildup, the upward correction won’t trigger a crash, which is good, but also without additional capital stepping in, it’s easiest to get stuck after the surge. In the next 24 to 48 hours, just watch two numbers: whether open interest can keep up, and whether 0.08351 can hold. If open interest continues to lag while the price hovers around 0.08, a pullback is inevitable; if it truly breaks below 0.0750, this breakout should be considered null.The latest White House crypto meeting feels bigger than another round of political support for Bitcoin. What stands out is who was in the room: regulators, major exchanges, financial institutions and leading crypto companies. The conversation is increasingly shifting from “Should crypto be regulated?” to “How should crypto fit into the financial system?” One of the biggest pieces to watch is the CLARITY Act. Clearer rules around the roles of the SEC and CFTC could give institutions more confidenLet's chat about $SNDK and $SPCX in the early morning.
SPCX, few can match Elon Musk's storytelling ability.
Rockets, Starlink, AI, satellites, and data centers under construction—he can tie all these hot concepts to SPCX. The business itself is real, and Starlink has actual revenue, but the market's valuation has already set aside current profits and factored in over a decade of imagination.
Although it is already listed on Nasdaq with public financial reports, the valuation premium brought by Musk's personal IP remains heavy. As long as he speaks publicly, the market directly prices in expectations for the next few years.
Whenever I see content hyping SPCX, I wonder how much of the long-term story is already priced into the current stock price.
As for SanDisk, the demand for AI storage is evident, and performance growth is visible.
However, recently the company has continuously released various business targets, stirring market sentiment, yet the stock price has dropped from 1780 to 1550.
Good news keeps coming out one after another, but the stock price keeps falling.
For SNDK, I’m watching 1550; if it breaks below, I’ll look at 1500 and 1450; if the rebound stalls between 1600-1650 and can’t break through, I’ll look for a shorting opportunity.
For SPCX, which is driven by sentiment, I won’t chase sudden rallies triggered by unexpected good news; I’ll wait until the hype cools down and the price falls back before considering it.
I’m not denying either company; precisely because their businesses have solid support, the stories are easily amplified by the market.