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$BTC surged more than $6,000 in one go from 76,000, reaching a high of over 82,000, just a step away from the previous high of 83,000 — exactly following the pattern we've discussed these past few days: after reclaiming 79,000, there’s a chance to push higher and even set new highs.
And where was the first immediate hit at 82,000? It’s the 365-day moving average, which is the most likely spot for the best last chance to jump in at the start of the bull market after the bear market officially ended.
Looking back at history: in early 2023, after the first touch of the bull market, it retraced about 20% (that time there was the black swan event of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, coinciding with the short-term holder cost line at 19,000); in 2019, it retraced about 12%. The window for another breakout isn’t far off — in 2019, it was about ten days from the first touch, and in 2023, only about twenty days.#EarningsObserver: Computing power is still stacking up, but the market is starting to "be picky"
Three earnings reports last night, aligned in direction but different in intensity.
Dell raised its full-year revenue guidance to 192 billion, AI servers increased from 60 billion to 74 billion, with backlog orders at 95 billion. Cabinets haven't stopped, orders haven't been canceled, physical shipments are ongoing.
Broadcom: Q3 revenue 29.6 billion, AI semiconductors 16.7 billion (YoY +221%). But Q4 total revenue guidance is 34.8 billion, 2-3 points below expectations, shares dropped after hours. The conference call just unfolded the long-term outlook: AI revenue this year 58 billion, 2027 at 115 billion, 2028 at 230 billion. Google, Anthropic, OpenAI are all in line.
Snowflake: product revenue +37%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, full-year guidance raised, shares up over 20% after hours. Data and AI workloads are truly migrating to the cloud.
Three details I’m watching:
First, Broadcom was "better than expected" yet still got hit. Pricing now isn’t about "good or bad," but "enough to be full." The long-term doubling is the story, but the near-term 2-point miss is cash.
Second, hardware and software rhythms differ. Dell and Broadcom talk about locked-in orders, Snowflake talks about customers burning tokens. Both legs are moving, but stock prices have already priced in expectations.
Third, this is a signal for risk assets, not a switch. Computing power spending continues, but that doesn’t mean it must surge tonight. Earnings reports first digest the "flaws," then the "long-term," and the few hours in between are when tuition is most likely paid. $BTC Ethena project-related address suspected of clearing out after 2 years of dormancy? Assets have shrunk by 65%🥹
Address 0x891…e4041 received 14 million $ENA transferred from Ethena multisig address in July 2024, valued at 6.89 million USD at the time, with a token price of $0.4928$
6 hours ago, all tokens were deposited into Bybit, leaving only 2.41 million USD, down 4.48 million USD from the time of receipt, and down over 8.735 million USD from the peak…$ENA Binance has signed a memorandum of understanding with multiple institutions in Kazakhstan, representing a medium- to long-term industry catalyst. In the short term, it is difficult to hedge against volatility caused by geopolitical and macro factors. Currently, multiple variables are intertwined; the geopolitical draft is still in preparation, CPI has not yet been released, and the market is mainly characterized by oscillation and strategic play, making it unsuitable for aggressive one-sided bets. Qatar publicly refuted Iran's claim that the Ras Laffan natural gas facility was not attacked, increasing regional information discrepancies and raising uncertainty in the Middle East situation once again. The United States is currently drafting a post-war Middle East strategy plan, which is still not finalized and will be constrained by two major upcoming events: the Israeli election in October and the U.S. midterm elections in November. The demands of various regional parties differ significantly, making implementation challenging.
Repeated geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt the energy market. As of the week ending September 1, ICE Brent crude oil speculative net long positions increased by 37,837 contracts to 261,435 contracts, with funds continuing to add to long positions. If the conflict escalates, the risk premium on oil and gas supply will rise rapidly. U.S. diesel prices have already hit historic highs. Energy price increases feeding into the CPI will directly raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly exceeding expectations, and the market has repriced rate hike trades. The CPI on September 11 remains the core market focus next week.
The transmission logic for major asset classes is clear: developments in the Middle East affect oil prices, oil price fluctuations impact inflation data, which in turn change interest rate expectations, ultimately affecting high-beta risk assets like BTC. After the previous nonfarm payroll release, BTC experienced a rapid 3.6% drop, reflecting a position reshuffle following the breakdown of the no-rate-hike consensus rather than a complete collapse of the narrative. There is an internal shift of funds from crypto beta to tech alpha. The small-cap $ZORA shows strong short-term momentum but is constrained by the broader macro market, requiring tight stop-loss settings for trading. The jobs report looked bullish for the economy. BTC clearly didn’t like it. August NFP came in at 162K vs ~56K expected, while unemployment held at 4.1%. July was also revised from a reported loss to a 21K gain. That combination pushed the Fed-hike narrative back into focus and BTC dropped below $80K after trading above $81K. But here’s the part I’m watching: This is a macro shock, not automatically a trend reversal. BTC is around $79,466 now. The key test is whether buyers can absorb the reactLocked funds surpass 1.5 billion, overtaking Arbitrum: Hyperliquid has pushed the veteran DEX to the brink
Many traders who initially used Hyperliquid just to farm airdrops suddenly found themselves unable to return to traditional on-chain DEXs.
Locked capital has quietly exceeded $1.5 billion, with monthly trading volume even reaching over tens of billions amid the entire network's liquidity winter, directly surpassing veteran derivatives protocols on Arbitrum and Ethereum. In a market where altcoins are flatlining and declining daily, this one-sided countertrend siphoning almost slaps all the old money who blindly believe in Ethereum's orthodoxy.
The logic of traders voting with their feet is actually very straightforward.
In the past, opening a contract on a general L2 required one authorization and one confirmation, and during volatile market swings, you could get stuck by Ethereum gas fees or even lose a few points of slippage to MEV sandwich attacks. Hyperliquid doesn't even need the Ethereum Virtual Machine; it builds its own underlying chain, achieving millisecond-level order matching response and completely eliminating on-chain gas friction. Retail traders and high-frequency market makers don't care if you're Ethereum's favorite child; they only care whether opening and closing positions is smooth and whether there are harsh price spikes.
But behind the prosperity hangs a Damocles sword.
A significant portion of this $1.5 billion is whales speculating on token airdrops. Once the token launch boots drop, the real life-or-death test will be whether this self-sustaining flywheel can truly lock liquidity through fee buybacks or, like other legends, face a cliff-like retreat.The Trump administration is advancing the drafting of a post-war plan for the Middle East, and the market has begun trading on expectations of conflict easing. As of the week ending September 1, ICE Brent crude oil speculative net long positions increased to 261,435 contracts, with long positions remaining high. The Middle East situation has become the biggest variable for oil prices.
If the post-war plan is implemented and advanced, it is expected to reduce the risk of regional military conflicts and ease disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which would suppress oil prices; however, the plan is still in the drafting stage, with significant disagreements among parties. The timing of implementation and effectiveness remain uncertain, and the risk of recurring conflicts has not been completely eliminated. The direction of oil prices will directly transmit to the US CPI, which is also a key energy-to-core inflation transmission risk highlighted by BlackRock.
The macro chain is clear: Middle East situation → Brent oil price → US inflation readings → Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, ultimately affecting high-beta assets such as BTC and US stocks. The nonfarm payrolls data greatly exceeded expectations, raising rate hike bets, compounded by the accumulation of oil longs, further amplifying the uncertainty of next week's CPI data. If energy prices push inflation higher and rate hike expectations rise again, risk assets will come under renewed pressure; if geopolitical easing leads to a decline in oil prices, it will relieve pressure on Federal Reserve policy.
In the crypto market, BTC experienced a sharp drop after the nonfarm data but has slightly recovered. The market is undergoing position reshuffling rather than a narrative collapse. The small-cap $ZORA shows strong momentum, but macro constraints on the broader market remain, so strict stop-loss discipline is essential. Binance and Kazakhstan have signed multiple memorandums of understanding, bringing mid-to-long-term industry narratives, but in the short term, it is difficult to hedge macro pressure.
At this stage, multiple geopolitical and macro factors are intertwined, and all assets are awaiting the CPI decision on September 11. Last night's ZEC price movement surprised many. Starting around 800, it surged with increasing volume to break through 900, reaching a high of 979 USD, a single-day increase of about 15%, briefly topping the trending search list, just one step away from the 1,000 USD mark. $ZEC
The core logic behind this rally is not driven by retail sentiment but by a change in capital structure. On August 25, Grayscale launched the world's first ZEC spot ETP on NYSE Arca, currently holding over 400,000 coins with assets under management exceeding 300 million USD. Institutions can allocate ZEC without building their own wallets, reshaping demand-side participation. About 4.81 million ZEC are locked in staking pools on-chain, accounting for 28% of circulating supply, indicating a high degree of chip lock-up.
The narrative has also quietly shifted; privacy coins are no longer just labeled with regulatory risks but are instead assigned new financial privacy value in the AI surveillance era. After breaking 900, short covering intensified the rally, with RSI reaching 79.6, clearly indicating short-term overheating. Today's low of 813 is an important support, 845 is the boundary between bulls and bears, and if broken, a correction may follow. The 1,000 mark is a psychological integer level, and volatility is expected to increase, so chasing highs requires extra caution.😌
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above content does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions prudently.SEPTEMBER COULD BRING MORE VOLATILITY
Historically, September has been a tough month for Bitcoin, with $BTC averaging around a 2.95% decline.
This year, rising 10Y Treasury yields and expectations for higher rates could add more pressure.
Friday’s US jobs report may be the next major catalyst, while options positioning shows notable downside protection around $68K to $75K.
Watching $BTC and $ETH closely.
#AugPayrollsBeat #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC 74K BTC, 750 ZEC, 2350 ETH—these numbers aren't just dreams, they're a safety net for September. If September really had a sharp drop, guess if it would fall from the top or down the slope? Recently, when I've been flipping through candlesticks, I've been thinking: this rebound isn't over yet. It's not that it won't fall, but before it does, the price will most likely push up again. The real intense cleanup usually comes when everyone thinks it's "stable." Here are the key positions I watched: - BTC 74K, which was the core support in the previous platform zone and the last psychological defense line for many large positions - ETH 2350, a notch weaker than BTC. If liquidity really ran into problems, it would lower its head first - SOL 95. In this rebound, SOL's resilience was actually underestimated; 95 is the bottom line for restarting a bull market - ZEC 750, among niche coins it has the cleanest movement and little leverage pollution - HYPE 73, one of the few newly listed coins that hasn't broken below issue price; 73 is where it proved itself. Why are these levels hard to break? Because risk appetite in the entire market is quietly spreading, not contracting. You see BTC's volatility is decreasing, but altcoin activity is rising, which shows that funds are not withdrawing but looking for new places. At this stage, sharp drops are often inserted into the market, not a trend reversal. But don't be too optimistic. Right now, the market has a risk of not being fully priced — if something happens to the US market, the beta nature of crypto will make it worseAs of the week ending September 1, ICE Brent crude oil speculative net long positions increased by 37,837 contracts to 261,435 contracts, reaching a 14-week high, with hedge funds significantly increasing their bullish bets on oil prices. Behind the increased capital allocation, geopolitical risks have raised supply concerns, coupled with U.S. diesel prices hitting historic highs, bringing energy-related inflation risks back into the market spotlight.
The rise in crude oil long positions carries important macroeconomic significance. Continued strength in oil prices will transmit downward, pushing up the overall CPI reading, which is the risk BlackRock previously warned about: energy prices permeating core inflation, directly interfering with Federal Reserve policy decisions. The recently released nonfarm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations, combined with the ongoing expansion of speculative crude oil longs, further amplifying the uncertainty of next week's CPI. If energy components drive inflation rebound, the probability of Fed rate hikes will rise again, continuing to suppress high-beta risk assets such as BTC and U.S. stocks.
However, it is important to distinguish that a rise in speculative net longs indicates institutional sentiment leaning bullish, but does not mean oil prices will only rise without falling. After concentrated accumulation of longs, once geopolitical tensions ease or supply recovers, rapid corrections caused by concentrated liquidations are also likely.
Looking at major asset classes, the current market is intertwined with multiple variables: nonfarm payrolls igniting rate hike trades, continued accumulation of Brent oil longs, Binance signing a memorandum in Central Asia bringing industry narratives, and small-cap $ZORA showing independent momentum. All trades ultimately await the direction given by the CPI on September 11. Before the inflation results are released, the market remains in a volatile game, and leveraged assets must strictly control positions and prepare stop losses. $xSNDK SanDisk surges over 6%!
Storage is booming, curing all doubts 😅
On September 4th during the US stock session, SanDisk once rose over 6%, with Micron and Seagate also pushing upwards. This time, the entire storage sector is warming up, not just SanDisk making noise.
But why is it soaring so sharply? Looking at the financial report, SanDisk's revenue in the last quarter increased 51% quarter-over-quarter. About one-third of this growth came from sales volume, and two-thirds from price hikes. Simply put, selling the same storage now brings in more money, which is the source of profit elasticity.
However, don’t assume all storage products are in short supply just because the stock price is soaring. TrendForce’s latest tracking shows consumer demand remains weak, and some NAND spot prices are still falling. Orders for servers are on a different level compared to ordinary people buying phones or upgrading computers.
So my optimism for SanDisk mainly lies in enterprise-level storage. But if price hikes start to slow down later, growth will have to rely on increased shipment volumes to keep up.
Holding this stock is truly a torment. The rise is supported by performance, but buying at too high a price can still turn a good company into a tough experience.After the storm, reflections on trading under the liquidation baptism in the crypto circle
The storm has finally subsided, but many people can never go back. Liquidation is a reality repeatedly played out in the crypto market cycle. Pursuing quick wealth means accepting the possibility of going to zero; high returns inevitably come with high risks. The bigger the waves, the pricier the fish. Once you make a choice, you must bear the corresponding consequences.
Non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations ignited rate hike trades. After a sharp drop, BTC slightly recovered, and the market completed a brutal position cleansing. ETH followed the market pressure in sync, with short-selling sentiment rising amid the volatile market; SOL reacted quickly to the decline, but its rebound and recovery pace was relatively slow, reflecting the high beta characteristic of altcoins—sharp drops and weak rebounds.
The BTC-to-gold ratio has reached a high since January. This indicator represents the strength of crypto assets relative to safe-haven assets. Whether this strength can continue depends mainly on the CPI inflation data on September 11. If inflation rises again and rate hike expectations continue to ferment, risk assets will come under pressure again; if inflation cools down, this round of overselling will have room for recovery.
The crypto circle is not a casino, but leverage and heavy positions can easily turn trading into gambling. Let’s encourage each other with the market: face every trade seriously, strictly control position sizes, and no matter how tempting the market is, always leave yourself an exit. Never put all your chips on a single trade. Currently, we are in a phase of macro expectation swings; in a volatile pattern, avoid one-sided directional bets, and be especially cautious of sharp drawdowns in small-cap coins.As soon as the $BTC non-farm payroll data came out, the whole market was stunned.
Everyone had been betting on "weaker employment and a Fed rate cut in September," and the whales even pushed the market up accordingly, but the data directly contradicted that—the US economy isn't that bad, and a rate cut might not come so soon.
The logic is simple: strong employment is not good news for rate cuts. When the Fed sees the economy holding up, why would they rush to ease? The market just realized that high interest rates might have to stay longer, and the previous enthusiasm for rate cuts now turns into painful corrections.
But don’t shout "bull market is over" just because of the data. Strong employment at least shows the US economy still has resilience; it’s not a recession, just a delay in rate cut expectations. The real key coming up is the CPI on September 11, which will ultimately determine pricing. If inflation continues to fall, the market will quickly start betting on rate cuts again—turning on a dime.
For Bitcoin, the short-term outlook is definitely bearish. The crypto space thrives on liquidity expectations; when rate cut expectations cool off, risk appetite shrinks immediately. Whales will take advantage of this to shake out both the bulls chasing rallies and the bottom-fishers.
So, this non-farm payroll data is just the market hitting the brakes, not the end of the road. The core of September’s market depends on whether inflation can keep falling. If CPI is strong, Bitcoin still has a chance to restart; if inflation fluctuates, be prepared for high-level volatility or even deep corrections.
Brothers, do you think the Fed will cut rates in September, or keep holding back on easing?$ARB this trade: perpetual 50x long, cost 0.11167, mark 0.13335, floating profit 970.66%. The structure is a bottom consolidation followed by a volume-driven stepped rise, accompanied by short-term short squeeze (there was a significant 24h volume/OI expansion), breaking through the 0.12-0.125 resistance zone.
Fundamentally, H1 revenue is 6.19 million, Robinhood Chain licensing fees and RWA growth, ArbOS 61 upgrade supports developer and institutional adoption; although on-chain TVL/activity has warmed up, the token does not directly collect fees, and the September unlock is a supply pressure outside of technical factors.
Operation: move stop profit to 0.128, defend at 0.12, watch volume at 0.14/0.15; if it retraces with shrinking volume and stabilizes, you can keep a base position, but if it fails to hold 0.12 or funding rates become extreme, exit first. $BTC $ETH #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Evening Review｜Binance Signs Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding in Kazakhstan, Regional Crypto Catalyzes
Binance has consecutively signed memorandums of understanding with Kazakhstan's Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development, the National Bank, and the Astana International Financial Centre. The cooperation covers the digital asset ecosystem, new payment infrastructure, and also explores the issuance of local stablecoins, expanding the application scenarios of digital assets within the country's investment system. This marks the local crypto sector's transition from regulatory frameworks to actual implementation, with Central Asia expected to become a regional digital financial hub.
This event is a positive development at the industry level, reflecting Binance's deepening compliance layout in Central Asia. Kazakhstan itself has a resource base for crypto mining, combined with improved official legislation. The simultaneous signing by the three institutions opens a policy window for exchanges, payments, stablecoins, and investment businesses, boosting expectations for institutional capital and user adoption in the region.
However, the positive impact leans more towards a medium- to long-term narrative and is unlikely to directly drive a sharp surge in the BTC market in the short term. The current core market contradiction remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with the CPI on September 11 being the decisive factor for the market. After the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the market is in a position reshuffle phase. BTC is oscillating and competing around 79,000, while smaller coins are more affected by the market beta. High-volatility coins like $ZORA have strong momentum but still require tight stop-loss settings.
The memorandum is only a letter of intent for cooperation; subsequent progress depends on the actual implementation of stablecoin and payment projects, with execution risks of falling short of expectations. Until macro disturbances are resolved, it is not suitable to make aggressive one-sided bets based on a single piece of news; a strategy of navigating the market with oscillation is recommended.At 3 a.m., the stop-loss sound for short positions is more precise than an alarm clock. Have you ever felt that the profits you painstakingly saved during the day were suddenly taken back by the market overnight with interest? Right after flipping through this round of accounts, almost all the unrealized gains accumulated during the day were swallowed up by this midnight rally. The closed positions still brought in +49U, but the floating losses on the three short positions in hand had already expanded to -106U, totaling a net loss of 57U. The CAP trade was the most typical: first shorted and earned 12U, then reversed to chase long and was washed out by 3.39U, taking hits back and forth. USELESS: Two trades during the day went smoothly, but the short positions added at midnight ended up directly opposite the trend. ZEC and UNI are even more so—fully leveraged positions are especially powerless in the face of rallies. This round of market activity actually reveals a key signal: risk appetite is clearly expanding in the early morning rather than contracting. The daytime "sell high, buy low" oscillation logic is overturned by a wave of collective buying late at night. The market is telling you that it is now willing to pay a premium for the rise, even if fundamentals haven't changed much. Here's a detail that's easy to overlook: three trapped short positions come from privacy coins, established public blockchains, and DeFi protocols, with no connection between sectors. This shows that funds aren't hyping a single narrative, but are buying indiscriminately. In this kind of market, the cost of holding positions against the trend is magnified, because the counterpart isn't a single big player, but the sentiment of the entire market. Now you need to think about two things. The path to a bullish side is: if this rally occurs...✏️ ETF has reached a dangerous level 🔴
Yesterday's inflow into ETFs amounted to $730 million, which is the highest in the last 8 months
The last two times when BTC-ETF inflows exceeded $700 million in a single day, it signaled the end of an uptrend, and soon after we got a strong correction of the asset
This is an additional factor pointing to a high probability of further correction from current levelsEvening Review｜Nonfarm Payrolls Trigger Rate Hike Trades, Crypto Assets Undergo Intense Repricing
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly exceeding the expected 55,000. The market restarted rate hike trades, with various assets reacting simultaneously: 2-year US Treasury yields rose 7.18 basis points, 10-year yields rose 3 basis points, and the US dollar strengthened; gold plunged 1.75% losing the 4400 level; the S&P slightly fell 0.17%; BTC dropped 3.6% from 82279 to 79311.
In this round of market action, BTC has been redefined as a high-beta risk asset, no longer serving as digital gold. As the most leveraged and liquid asset, it was the first to be sold off during the interest rate expectation reversal phase, with Ethereum following suit in the pullback.
However, the market did not completely collapse. After 11 PM, BTC closed with a small bullish candle up 0.56%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.29%, and semiconductors independently resisted pressure thanks to OpenAI's new model. Funds did not exit but rotated internally, shifting from crypto beta to tech alpha, representing a position reshuffle after breaking the "no rate hike consensus," rather than a total narrative collapse.
The market's decisive moment is set for the September 11 CPI release. If inflation data cools down, tonight's sell-off would be a mistake, and the 79000 level will quickly recover; if inflation heats up again, the 79000 level risks being breached. Before the CPI release, the market is expected to be mainly volatile, and unilateral bets are not advisable. 🚨 NFP Surprises But Trump Wants Rate Cuts
August Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 162K, beating expectations and strengthening the case for a cautious Fed.
But Trump is pushing the opposite message: cut rates now or face trade consequences.
Three tensions are now shaping the market:
• Strong jobs vs. rate cuts: A resilient labor market gives the Fed less reason to ease.
• Trade vs. monetary policy: Linking tariffs and trade deficits with interest rates adds another layer of uncertainty. Evening Review｜Crypto Market Volatility,
Disturbed by US Nonfarm Payroll Data, Global Risk Assets Enter a Wait-and-See Mode, Market Focus Awaits Next Week's CPI Inflation Data Release, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Swing Back and Forth
In the crypto market, Bitcoin surged then retreated, fluctuating around $79,600, while Ethereum simultaneously pulled back to the $2,450 range. Previously benefiting from cooling rate hike expectations, the coin price once stood above $81,000; after the nonfarm data release, bullish momentum weakened. Logically, if inflation falls short of expectations, rate hike expectations will rise again, suppressing crypto asset valuations; if CPI confirms cooling, it will favor continued recovery of risk assets. Crypto market volatility is extreme, and the risk of liquidation in leveraged trading needs caution.
In the semiconductor storage sector, Sandisk benefits from AI inference driving massive data storage demand, with NAND flash entering a super cycle. Enterprise SSD orders are full; the company has signed large multi-year price-locked contracts, securing most supply for the next two years, maintaining tight supply balance and ensuring gross margins remain high. Data centers are expected to surpass mobile terminals this year, becoming the largest NAND demand source. The company controls capital expenditure, avoids blind capacity expansion, supporting strong flash prices. Risks include subsequent capacity releases, overseas giants' capital expenditure falling short of expectations, and geopolitical policy disruptions.
Overall, both crypto assets and storage chips are highly tied to Fed inflation and interest rate trends. In the short term, the focus is on waiting for CPI guidance; storage looks to AI capital expenditure realization; crypto focuses on interest rate expectation changes. Among all the analytical tools revered as canonical textbooks in trading, the most deceptive for novice retail traders is none other than the colorful order book depth chart on the exchange interface. Many contract traders who have just entered the field love to do one thing most when watching the market daily: opening the green buy order list. When they see thousands of bitcoins, or even tens of millions of dollars worth of huge limit buy orders densely placed a few hundred points below the current price, their sense of security often instantly maxes out. In their intuitive understanding, this is a steel fortress built by major institutions, a bottom line of real money from the whales protecting the market. So, they confidently open long positions above that thick wall, even placing their only life-saving stop-loss point tightly behind those huge buy orders. They naively believe that even if the sky falls, those tens of millions of dollars of institutional funds will take the bullets for them first. However, almost every veteran who has suffered a big liquidation in the crypto derivatives market has experienced the same deeply painful despair in reality: At the moment the real storm hits, that seemingly insurmountable buy order wall will completely evaporate like a mirage in less than a tenth of a second. What remains for the bulls is only a bottomless liquidity vacuum and a devastating spike that breaks through all defenses. In the world of crypto trading, the deadliest danger is never the blatant selling pressure from the bears, but the false sense of security that market maker algorithms are always ready to withdraw to lure you into the market. 1. The nature of the ghost: market makers never⚠️For study reference only, not investment advice
Will ZEC go to zero?
Direct conclusion: The short-term probability of going completely to zero is low, but there is a high risk of an 80-90% crash and liquidity impairment; going to zero is a low-probability black swan event, not the baseline scenario.
✅Realistic conditions supporting that it is hard for ZEC to go to zero
1. Deep institutional binding, Grayscale ETF already listed on NYSE
Grayscale made ZEC into a spot ETF, the US SEC investigation was closed with no prosecution, market makers like Jane Street and Virtu participate, ordinary US stock investors can buy directly, with Wall Street institutional capital backing. It is not a small unknown coin, its market cap is very large.
2. Decentralized network, foundation has liquidity reserves
Zcash is an open-source decentralized protocol, not dependent on a single company; the foundation has tens of millions of dollars in liquidity reserves, continuously maintaining network upgrades and node development; total supply hard cap of 21 million; after a major vulnerability in May this year, a rotating gate mechanism was launched to strictly lock the total supply, preventing unlimited issuance. Even if some developers leave, the blockchain network can still produce blocks and process transactions normally.
3. The world will not ban it all at once
The EU in 2027 only requires privacy coins to be delisted on compliant exchanges in the EU region; major exchanges in the US and Asia can still trade normally; personal self-custody holding is legal. This is a partial liquidity impairment, not a global death sentence for ZEC.
💀Only two types of extremely low-probability black swans could truly lead to zero
1. Another unfixable catastrophic zero-knowledge cryptography vulnerability
In May this year, a 4-year buried Orchard circuit vulnerability appeared, allowing undetectable forgery of ZEC; although it has been upgraded and fixed, zero-knowledge proof code complexity is extremely high. If a similar fatal vulnerability is discovered in the future and cannot be upgraded and fixed, market trust will completely collapse, leading to a zero scenario.
2. Foundation dissolves, all core developers leave collectively, large-scale node shutdown, chain completely stalls
Currently, the foundation has sufficient funds and is continuously iterating and upgrading; this scenario shows no signs now.
⚠️However! This does NOT mean it is safe, two very high real risks (won't go to zero but can lose badly)
1. Regulatory fragmentation causes liquidity collapse
EU mandatory delisting in 2027, European users may sell off in concentration near the deadline; if more countries follow, multiple top exchanges will successively delist ZEC. The coin itself is not dead, the chain can still run, but trading depth dries up, slippage is huge, making it very hard to sell smoothly, experience close to "zero," only the token code is still alive.
2. ETF hype realization, price sharply corrects
This rally is driven by ETF expectations; after the benefit is realized, it is easy to "buy the rumor, sell the fact," causing a deep correction. The May vulnerability event saw a 50% drop within 48 hours, extremely volatile.
Plain summary distinction
• 🟢Going to zero (value completely zero): low probability, only happens with catastrophic unfixable code vulnerabilities or project death.
• 🔴Crash, liquidity dry-up, unable to sell: this risk is very real, the biggest enemy of ZEC, not zero but causes huge losses.
Practical red alert signals you should watch
1. News: New underlying cryptographic forgery vulnerability exposed → highest level red alert.
2. News: Multiple top exchanges simultaneously announce delisting of ZEC, not just a single EU license entity.
3. Technical chart: 15-minute close below 993.54 lifeline; ultimate defense 962.47, short-term trend deteriorates.
Updated full warning brief
ZEC | Current price 1026.66
[Background] Grayscale ZCSH-ETF listed on NYSE, backed by US regulatory closure; EU AMLR law enforced from 2027-07 mandates privacy coin delisting on compliant EU exchanges, personal self-custody allowed; exchange custody faces delisting risk, self-custody not afraid of delisting but loss of mnemonic means permanent asset loss; distinction: exchange delisting ≠ project zero, delisting is only partial platform trading ban; zero requires unfixable cryptographic vulnerability/project death; ZEC historically had high-risk Orchard vulnerability, black swan risk exists, high risk of benefit realization correction; zero probability low, but crash and liquidity dry-up risk high
Short-term strong resistance 1050.48; lifeline 993.54; strong support 962.47
Close above 1050.48 is bullish; close below 993.54 short-term bearish; break 962.47 rebound ends
ETF news-driven market, avoid chasing at highs, global regulatory fragmentation risk high. For study only, not investment advice
Practical reminder: Do not use "hard to go zero" as a reason for heavy positions. It is a high speculation narrative coin, suitable for small position speculation, not for large capital bets.Macro Highlights Reminder
1. Market focus shifts to next Thursday's CPI data; inflation easing less than expected will raise rate hike expectations again; rising energy prices (diesel hitting record highs) are potential inflation disturbance factors.
2. The labor market is in a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, easing wage pressure, but the risk of energy transmission to core inflation needs to be watched.
Summary
In the short term, U.S. stock sentiment is disturbed by employment data, with trading focus awaiting inflation confirmation. On the consumer side, Mocha belongs to a high-growth niche segment, showing impressive growth but currently with low market share; production capacity hardware is already in place, and subsequent terminal sales data will be observed.
Risk Warning: This review is for information organization only and does not constitute any investment advice.Evening Review｜US Stocks Fluctuate, Focus on Consumer Sector Highlights
Market Overview
US stocks fluctuated overall in the evening session. Coca-Cola (KO) closed at $88.108, slightly down 0.79%. Influenced by better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, the market is re-evaluating the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Next week's CPI inflation data has become the core market indicator. Institutions like BlackRock have made it clear: strong employment does not necessarily mean a rate hike; inflation data is the decisive factor for the September meeting. Even a small 25bp hike may not cause a significant sell-off in equities if corporate earnings remain resilient.
Core Sector: Soft Drinks · Energy Drinks
Coca-Cola China has put two new factories with a combined capacity of 3.25 billion units into operation, increasing production capacity, focusing on serving the explosive growth of Monster Energy Drinks.
- Fundamentals: Monster's sales in the first half of 2026 have already matched the entire 2025 sales; Monster Beverage's China sales in Q1 nearly doubled year-on-year. Energy drinks have become Coca-Cola China's primary growth engine.
- Advantages: Backed by Coca-Cola's mature distribution channels and the dual brands "Monster (premium) + Beast (mass market)," the new factories address capacity and logistics bottlenecks in East and South China core regions.
- Risks: Market share is only 2.8%; the duopoly of Eastroc and Red Bull remains solid; players like Pepsi and Genki Forest continue to enter the market, making competition fierce. Capacity expansion needs to translate into terminal sales. After the non-farm payrolls hit, the first thing the market did was to reprice the September rate hike, pushing the 2-year US Treasury yield higher — this is the real reason risk assets fell today, not some "flight to safety." Many people are still using geopolitics and war to explain the crypto price, but they have the direction all wrong. The current pricing logic is straightforward: the economy is not weak → inflation is sticky → interest rates stay higher for longer → valuations get pushed down. $BTC and gold both slipped today, which is a textbook demonstration of this chain. Watch the interest rates, not the news headlines; headlines are written for emotions, interest rates are written for money.1. Nonfarm payrolls added 162,000, but not all industries are expanding On September 4, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. This employment growth was mainly due to food service and local government education, while positions in the information industry actually decreased. While the total numbers are recovering, there is still divergence between industries, so judging the economy by not looking at a single new employment figure is key. 2. Bitcoin ETFs inflowed $730.8 million—don't look at the chronological order backwards. On September 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $730.8 million, significantly higher than the previous day's $101.1 million. BlackRock IBIT contributed $454 million, accounting for about 62% of the day's net inflow. What's easily overlooked here is the date: these funds had already flowed in before the nonfarm payroll release and cannot be used to prove institutions entered the market after the September 4 drop. 3. Ethereum ETFs are attracting funds again, but stable one-way inflows are still not visible. Farside data shows that on September 3, the net inflow of US Ethereum spot ETFs was about $141.4 million, compared to a net outflow of $48.2 million the previous trading day. ETHA and FETH saw net inflows of about $72.1 million and $65.1 million, respectively. Funds have returned, but the direction over the two consecutive days is different, and continuous data is needed to confirm whether buying interest can continue. 4. Standard Chartered opens institutional spot trading; banks buying coins themselves is another matter. On September 3, Standard Chartered announced that it would provide BT to eligible institutional clients in the UAE through the DIFC entity#BTC to gold ratio rises to highest since January, can the strength continue?
1 BTC can now be exchanged for 18.17 ounces of gold, a new high since January. Note, it's ounces—BTC is starting to measure itself by gold's standard.
▪️ 1 BTC ≈ 18.17 ounces of gold, highest since January (OKX spot BTC/USDT running high)
▪️ BTC×gold 90-day correlation: highest since 2020 (Bitwise)
▪️ Cooling rate hike expectations + falling US Treasury yields support both asset types
▪️ US spot BTC ETF: net inflow in August → two-way fluctuations in early September, institutions not continuous
The record high correlation tells the same story: debt expansion, currency purchasing power erosion, and safe-haven money flowing simultaneously into both assets. The divergence is not whether BTC will rise—80,000 has been surpassed; it’s whether this rally follows gold’s logic or a bull market logic: pegged to dollar depreciation, BTC’s opponent is the money printer; pegged to ETF funds, the two-way fluctuations in early September are a warning.
BTC outlook: the strength against gold is expected to continue, provided spot demand absorbs the 80,000–82,500 sell orders and ETF net inflows resume continuously. Holding above 82,500, 18.17 ounces is not the peak; with ongoing two-way capital flows, the strength will stall near the January high.
Do you believe in gold’s logic (currency depreciation) or the bull market logic (capital inflows)?#英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace
NVIDIA is spending $12.93 billion to acquire HuggingFace, while also promising "not to require developers to use NVIDIA computing power." The hardware king is buying a software gateway but claims not to lock down the ecosystem—how will this money be recouped?
▪️ Total acquisition amount about $12.93 billion: approximately $11.9 billion to shareholders + up to $1 billion for employee retention
▪️ HuggingFace: a hub for model, dataset publishing/download/deployment, a public gateway for AI developers
▪️ Expected to complete in the first half of 2027, pending regulatory approval
▪️ Comparison: previously invested $3.5 billion with MediaTek to expand hardware cooperation—this time it’s a gateway-level acquisition
The disagreement isn’t whether NVIDIA wants a software gateway—the $12.9 billion already makes that clear. How can "open ecosystem" and "monetizing computing power" coexist: they won’t force you to use their GPUs, but model distribution, toolchains, and developer traffic all go through their hands—the gateway is secured, revenue is a matter for later.
To get a sense of scale: $12.93 billion is about 3.7 times MediaTek’s investment, upgrading from "making friends" directly to "buying the gateway."
Are you betting on the sincerity of an open platform, or the prelude to gateway monopoly?Currently, $BTC's short-term pricing power is still firmly held by macroeconomic data.
Yesterday, a single statement could push it up by $5,000,
Today, a non-farm payroll report can cause it to drop by $3,000.
This shows that funds are not yet strong enough to completely ignore the interest rate environment. What’s more interesting is how Bitcoin and gold arrived at this point together. According to Bitwise’s 90-day data, BTC’s correlation with gold has climbed above 0.5, its highest level since 2020. Earlier this year, the relationship was close to zero. This renewed correlation appeared alongside pressure in the bond market. Long-term Treasury yields jumped, the Treasury increased liquidity-support purchases of longer-duration debt, BTC gained 22.4% over the following week, gold rose around 5%, whThe non-farm payrolls brutally woke us up from the rate cut dream😭, gold and tech both took a hit, and altcoins need to be picked carefully!
$XAU The core focus today is the non-farm payrolls. New jobs added were 162,000, nearly three times the expected number, causing gold to drop over 2% immediately. Yesterday, traders were betting on a dovish Waller, but today the market quickly switched back to "higher rates for longer." The demand for safe havens hasn't disappeared, but as long as yields keep rising, gold has to compete with high interest rates for capital first. When will my 5200 gold break even😭?
$BICO Small-cap coins like this rely heavily on liquidity, but they also lack new catalysts. After the heat from Upbit faded, with macro tightening now, funds naturally pull out of high Beta first, so don't rush to treat the rebound as a trend.
$OKB has an additional independent logic; X Layer just added 19 new perpetual markets. The issue is that launching products is only the first step; the real value lies in whether it can continuously bring trading volume and on-chain users.
$QQQ is directly facing upward pressure on yields; strong non-farm payrolls are the least friendly to high-valuation tech; $TRUMP remains event-driven, and volatility will only increase when liquidity tightens; $HYPE has ETF inclusion and buyback support, making its logic solid among altcoins, but after macro tightening, high-level funds will also be more selective. Tonight, don't just watch who falls the least; focus on who still has capital willing to stay.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 I have to say, the blond guy's ability to draw K-lines is top-notch. Despite the non-farm payroll data massively missing expectations as a major negative, the blond guy directly threatened the Federal Reserve that if they don't cut interest rates, he will cut off trade with deficit countries.
But I still remain bearish on $BTC because BTC hasn't broken through the previous high of 82,800 in May; it only briefly touched 82,200. Even with the dual positive effects of the Cioture bill and Waller's dovish stance, it couldn't break the May high. Now, with the non-farm payroll data missing expectations as a negative factor, even if the blond guy talks about cutting rates, it will only cause a short-term pullback. To break the previous high, we still have to wait for the CPI on the 11th to confirm whether Bitcoin can break through the previous high. Personally, I think the current rise looks more like a technical correction after an oversell, with a large amount of arbitrage positions waiting to be unlocked around the 80,000 level, plus profit-taking from the non-farm negative. This time, breaking the previous high is almost impossible for $ETH $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Last night, Waller’s dovish comments sent risk appetite flying. $BTC ripped toward $82K+, while $ETH pushed above $2,500 and traders started pricing in a potential bullish continuation. Then the U.S. jobs report dropped. 💀 🇺🇸 August NFP: 162K 📊 Expected: ~55K 📈 Unemployment: 4.1% That’s almost 3X the expected job growth. And suddenly the Fed-cut narrative got a lot messier. $BTC → back below $80K $ETH → momentum cooling 💵 Dollar + Treasury yields → moving higher The interesting part? BitcoWaller's "Plain Language" Preview: September Is Set, All Depends on Next Week's CPI to Decide
The latest statement from Fed's "big dove" Waller can be translated into two simple points:
First, the FOMC vote on September 15 is directly tied to next Wednesday (September 11)'s August CPI. If the data is good and inflation continues to slide toward 2%, he will stay put; if the data is hot, even if not explosive, he accepts the "small rate hike" as a fallback.
Second, although he says "inflation is finally cooling," he openly admits that the current 3.5%-3.75% policy rate is only a "mild restriction" in his view. This means that without runaway inflation, as long as the CPI rebound is "not cold enough," it’s enough to push him back into the hawkish camp.
Overall, this statement leans dovish. The market is honest: the rate hike probability dropped directly from about 60% to around 50%, but note—the door is not shut, leaving room for maneuver.
The mid-term strategy is clear: regardless of what other officials say, Waller’s vote is data-driven. Once the September 11 CPI is released, if it’s below previous values and expectations → likely no change in September; if it exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations reignite.
Everything else is noise. First watch the CPI preview; next week’s data release is the real battleground.
Keep your eyes on this number, don’t get distracted. 🎯
$BTC $ETH
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ That’s the real battle right now. Institutional demand is still keeping $BTC relevant, but the latest U.S. jobs data has made the Fed equation much more complicated. August payrolls came in around 162K, crushing expectations near 56K, while unemployment held around 4.1%. That pushed rate-hike expectations higher and sent yields back into focus. So we have two forces fighting each other: 🟢 ETF demand + institutional accumulation 🔴 Higher yields + tighter Fed expectations My updated radar 👇 $BT#8月非农16 2,000 far exceeded expectations, rate hike bets heat up. The nonfarm payroll fire is burning fiercer. August added 162,000 jobs, unemployment fell to 4.1% instead of rising, and wages rose 3.8% year-on-year—these three numbers together show the job market hasn't collapsed, it's actually expanding. What's even worse is wage growth, rising for three consecutive months, deeply rooting the root of inflation. After the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 50% to 60%. Waller's "rate hike if data is strong" still rings in my ears, but now the scales have already shifted. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond broke through 4.8%, and funding costs continue to rise. For BTC, the short liquidation zone above 85,000 looks tempting, but with rate hike expectations, liquidity pumping is basically unlikely. Bank of America says non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer, CPI is the main course—if next week's CPI exceeds expectations, rate hikes are inevitable, and BTC will have to find support downward. If CPI unexpectedly softens, there's still room to maneuver. The current direction hasn't changed, but the knife of rate hikes hangs even closer. Think carefully. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位, can the strength continue? Both Bitcoin and ETH are developing much larger structures, and each major structure has its own unusual event. Bitcoin has already experienced its unusual event within the first 12-year structure — the prolonged bear market of 2013–2015. Since 2022, Bitcoin has been developing a second, structurally similar 12-year formation, and I believe a comparable unusual event must occur within this second structure as well. My expectation is that this unusual event will once again take the form of an extSOL has indeed "stalled" recently, dropping about 40% this year, making it one of the worst mainstream coins. This is not caused by a single issue but the result of multiple factors combining narrative, ecosystem, technology, and macro environment. --- 1. Core narrative setback: "Stolen from the script" Solana has been telling a grand story — becoming an "internet capital market" by moving stocks, commodities, futures, and all assets on-chain. But now this script has been snatched away by Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid's focus on on-chain perpetual contract trading holds over 80% of the derivatives market, proving that the "internet capital market" may not need a universal ecosystem; a vertical Layer1 designed specifically for financial transactions might be better suited than a general public chain like Solana. Capital and attention are heavily concentrating on Hyperliquid. 2. Ecosystem fundamentals under pressure · Meme boom fades: Solana's boom in this cycle largely relied on the meme coin craze, but now Pump.fun trading volume has dropped to about one-sixth of its peak, with some traffic flowing into BNB Chain. Sharp decline in trading and revenue: On-chain DEX trading volume plunged over 50%, DApp revenue fell to an 18-month low; Total Q1 fees were only $89.9 million, down 68% year-on-year, the lowest since Q3 2023. Security trust crisis: In April this year, Solana's most important perpetual contract protocol Drift was attacked and lost over $200 millionFATCOIN's market cap briefly surpasses $40 million, hitting a new high, and meme strategies attract attention again. On September 5, according to GMGN market data, the market cap of the meme coin FATCOIN briefly surpassed $40 million, reaching a new high of $35.34 million, a single-day increase of more than threefold. This coin was issued on the o1 platform and paired with tokenized US weight loss drug leader Lilly Lilly (LLY), making it a representative case of meme gameplay among crypto stocks recently. FATCOIN was issued on the o1 platform, and its main feature is leveraging the stock trading platform Robinhood to form trading pairs with Eli Lilly (LLY), the leading tokenized US weight loss drug provider. This is a recently emerging meme (stock meme) strategy: Meme coins no longer pair with traditional crypto assets like USDT or ETH, but instead form trading pairs directly with on-chain tokenized US stocks (such as NVDA, TSLA, APL, etc.). This model creates a dual driving logic: on one hand, it retains the high volatility and community-driven speculative nature of meme coins; On the other hand, it relies on the popularity and narrative of real stocks, leveraging the attention of Eli Lilly, the leading weight loss drug, in the US stock market to attract on-chain capital. Additionally, fees from such transactions often flow back into the community treasury, continuously accumulating corresponding US stock tokens, forming a cycle of emotional speculation and real asset anchoring in parallel. FATCOIN's single-day increase of over 3x and market cap surpassing $40 million indicate that this emerging meme model is attracting speculative capital, reflecting the crypto marketUnder the spotlight of the computing power market, several heavyweight financial reports were released simultaneously last night, sending signals more subtle than the numbers appear. Dell was the first to hand over, raising its full-year revenue forecast to $192 billion, raising its AI server guidance from $60 billion to $74 billion, and backlog orders reaching $95 billion, indicating that cabinets and power supplies are still being shipped to data centers, and physical deliveries at the hardware layer have not slowed down. Broadcom's report card is even more complex. Third-quarter revenue was $29.59 billion, up 86% year-on-year, with AI chips contributing $16.7 billion, a 221% increase year-over-year—a very impressive figure. However, the market did not applaud, as the Q4 guidance of $34.8 billion was slightly below analysts' expectations of $35 to $35.1 billion, putting pressure on the stock price after hours. The real turning point came during a conference call, where management raised its full-year AI revenue forecast to 58 billion and outlined a doubling path of 115 billion in 2027 and 230 billion in 2028. Major clients like Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI are still lining up to order custom chips, setting the tension of a long-term story. On the software side, Snowflake provided another reference. Quarterly revenue was $1.55 billion, growing 35%, product revenue accelerated for three consecutive quarters, annual guidance was moderately raised, and after-hours stock price surged over 20%, indicating that AI workloads are indeed migrating to the cloud, not just a hardware solo show. A closer look reveals that the market's response logic to earnings reports has quietly shifted. Beating expectations is no longer a protective shield; guidance is somewhat weak#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温
Nonfarm payrolls directly exploded, adding 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000. $BTC $ETH
In a nutshell: US employment is far from cooling down.
The probability of a rate hike in September has surged close to 60%, US Treasury yields jumped, and rate cut fantasies were instantly extinguished.
Market reaction:
BTC surged to 82,000 the night before, then dropped sharply below 80,000 as the data landed.
ETH simultaneously broke 2,500, with greater volatility and a harsher pullback.
The previous rebound was a bet on weakening employment and the Fed easing. Now expectations are disproved.
Next two key points:
1. Next week's CPI is the ultimate judgment. Even if inflation remains stubborn, a September rate hike is nailed down; the crypto space should not expect a short-term one-sided rally.
2. Technicals: The 81,500 false breakout is confirmed.
Resistance at 79,800‑80,200, support at 76,200.
If it holds above 80,000, there is still room for oscillation and repetition; once it breaks below 76,200, a new round of correction space opens.
Altcoins need no further explanation; with BTC's bloodsucking market combined with macro headwinds, liquidity will further shrink, and the vast majority will only drift down.
Advice:
Do not go heavily long against the trend, do not blindly chase shorts.
The next few days of volatile sweeping will be extremely brutal; reduce leverage!Uniswap co-founder Hayden Adams responds to AMC CEO: stock tokenization is carefully established legally. On September 5, Uniswap co-founder Hayden Adams joined the AMC CEO and Robinhood's debate over the legalization of stock tokens, stating that this was clearly the first time the AMC CEO had heard of tokenized stocks, and his remarks constituted an attempt at excessive enforcement. He emphasized that stock tokenization was meticulously designed and established by a former SEC commissioner in a legal manner. The incident originated when Robinhood launched a US stock tokenization product for some market users, allowing users to gain exposure to US stocks through cryptocurrency. This model has led some listed company executives to question whether the AMC CEO is one of the public opponents, with core concerns centered on whether tokenized stocks truly represent underlying equity, how shareholder rights are protected, and whether information disclosure is sufficient. Hayden Adams publicly responded by saying that the AMC CEO was first involved in tokenized stocks, and his remarks seemed more like an attempt at excessive enforcement, pointing out that the structure of stock tokenization was carefully designed and established by a former SEC commissioner in a legal manner, rather than operating in legal gray areas. The essence of this debate is the battle for rule-based discourse power between the management of traditional listed companies and crypto financial infrastructure. Stock tokenization is seen as an important direction in the real-world asset track of RWAs. If their legitimate status gains broader recognition, it will open up space for traditional financial assets to be listed on-chain; Conversely, if they face regulatory oversight,BTC hits a three-month high, ETH returns to 2500: Who's driving this wave?
BTC surged overnight to about $82,200, the highest since May; ETH also climbed back near $2500.
The most obvious change in this rally is not some sudden big Crypto news, but a rapid easing of macroeconomic pressure.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool, he leans toward no rate hike in September. The market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike from about 63% to around 50%, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets rebounded together.
But Crypto itself also has real buying demand.
The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, the highest since mid-January, with BlackRock IBIT attracting about $454 million; ETH ETFs also saw a net inflow of about $141 million on the same day.
At the same time, this wave also includes obvious short squeezes. After BTC quickly broke through $80,000, the market saw over $400 million in Crypto short liquidations, so the entire price increase cannot be understood as "new money blindly chasing highs."
The next two levels are very important.
For BTC, watch around $82,800 above, near the May high and key technical resistance; only a solid break here will open the chance to push toward $90,000. For ETH, watch $2530–$2570 first; after breaking the late August high, the structure can be considered further strengthened.🚨 BREAKING: The jobs report just hit Bitcoin where it hurts.
US August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 vs. just 56,000 expected — almost 3× higher than forecasts.
And it wasn’t just a one-month surprise. June and July were revised up by another 55,000 jobs, showing the US labor market may be much stronger than investors thought.
#DailyOrbit U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of about 55,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Strong employment data has led the market to re-bet that the Fed may continue its hawkish stance, even possibly raising interest rates in September. The result is— 🇺🇸 the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are boosted 📉, and the crypto market is under significant pressure. ₿ BTC and ETH saw rapid short-term declines 📊, and risk assets have returned to the "interest rate expectations battle" phase. Most importantly, this time it's not simply "the better the economy, the higher the stock market." Strong employment = stronger economic resilience, but it also means inflationary pressures may be harder to ease quickly, naturally suppressing market expectations for Fed rate cuts. So what we really need to watch now is not just nonfarm payrolls, but the upcoming CPI, PPI, and the Fed's September meeting. To sum up in one sentence: The stronger the employment data, the weaker the rate cut expectations; The stronger the dollar and yields, the more likely BTC is to be pressured in the short term. In this rally, don't just focus on the candlesticks—macro data is the real driving force. 🔥 #非农 #BTC #ETH #加密货币 #美联储 #CPI #美元 #美债收益率 #CryptoNews #FOMC$BTC just performed a "Dragon's Breath"!
Don't be fooled by it returning to around 79,800 now; that recent move was no simple feat.
As soon as the non-farm payrolls were released, the market was completely stunned.
August added 162,000 jobs, while the market had only dared to expect 50,000-60,000.
Even more intense,
June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000.
People thought US employment had cooled off,
but it turns out:
It wasn't cooling, it was just previously underestimated.
So the market's first reaction was very direct:
The US dollar strengthened.
US Treasury yields surged.
September rate hike expectations rose again, with the market pricing now close to 60%.
Then look at BTC.
81,405 → 78,650.
In just a few hours,
it smashed through 80,000.
But the really interesting part was the latter half.
After dropping to 78,650,
BTC didn't continue to cascade down,
instead it quickly made a V-shaped recovery,
retesting near 79,800.
This is what I call:
"Dragon's Breath."
First, it breathes out a puff of panic,
washing out the longs,
clearing leveraged long positions,
then quickly recovers some lost ground.
This shows there is temporary support near 78,600.
But note:
Dragon's Breath ≠ reversal.
Right now, the two key levels are:
80,000.
Holding above 80,000 with volume
is the only way to qualify for a renewed challenge of 80,800–81,400.
If it rebounds near 80,000 but then gets smashed down again,
this move is more likely just a breather after a decline.
And if 78,600 breaks again,
we must guard against a double bottom test.
So don't rush to guess tops or bottoms now.
Non-farm payrolls are just the first hurdle.
The real big test is the September 11 CPI.
Employment has reignited rate hike expectations,
and if CPI again exceeds expectations,
then BTC's "Dragon's Breath" may not be finished yet.
Conversely,
if CPI cools significantly,
then today's panic sell-off
might actually become the bulls' chip to retake 80,000.
My thinking in one sentence:
Above 80,000 look for recovery, below 78,600 guard against a second drop.
Don't chase the middle.
Wait for the market to give direction.
#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ If even continuous ETF inflows can't push prices, then what the market really lacks is probably not money, but the people willing to take risks. Have you noticed that BTC is swinging back and forth around 81,000, just like a state of "wanting to leave but reluctant to leave"? My feeling these past few days is: the market is not weak, but no one is willing to actively push forward. After the price pulled back from its high, it has been fluctuating around this range. There is buying, but it's mostly passive buying — not incremental funds rushing in with faith. ETF data is indeed good, with continuous inflows, but the problem is that this money seems more like a "defensive" asset rather than a "attack." You can hold for a while, but you can't break the trend. My own judgment is that what the market lacks now is not liquidity, but the spread of risk appetite. You see, if capital were truly willing to take risks, it would have long since pulled on those highly elastic altcoins instead of crowding into BTC to band together. This is actually a very critical signal—when everyone is buying the same thing, it means no one is confident and can only choose the "safest" ones to stay with. The current situation is a bit like: big funds are waiting for a reason, retail investors are waiting for a direction, and prices are waiting for an opportunity in between. Personally, I am not inclined to take any action at this level—not because I'm bearish, but because when you don't understand, staying at the moment is the best move. I've set three rules for myself to share with you for your reference: - Don't chase highs; even if you do break out later, missing out is still more comfortable than being stuck. - Don't rush to buy the dip; it's a downturnMacro warm winds ignite the market, BTC leads the rebound, ETH follows but domestic capital shows clear divergence
In the past 24 hours, BTC reversed sharply from 77,000 in a V-shape, strongly breaking through 81,000, reaching a high of 81,748 USD, up 5.3%; ETH simultaneously reclaimed the 2,500 USD mark, rising 4.8%. The tone of this rally is not disorderly short squeeze, but emotional recovery under marginal easing of macro expectations
① Waller's "pause rate hike" signal was the trigger. He clearly stated — as long as August CPI does not unexpectedly rise, the September FOMC tends to keep rates unchanged. The market quickly repriced, with CME rate hike probability plummeting from 63.2% to 50.4%, and tightening panic temporarily subsiding
② Employment data endorsement. Initial jobless claims rose more than expected, strengthening the narrative of "rate hike nearing the end" as labor market cools, suppressing the dollar and boosting risk appetite
③ Dollar and US Treasury yields both fall, directly benefiting zero-coupon assets. The dollar index dropped 0.5% breaking below 99, 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.82% to 4.75%. BTC rose in tandem with gold (+3.6%) and Nasdaq (+1.4%), restoring macro correlation
If August inflation data or Fed rhetoric reverses, the rebound foundation will quickly collapse. Short-term trading can rely on 80,000 support for speculation, but mid-term adding positions still requires clearer right-side signals to control position size, and avoid mistaking the rebound for a reversal