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The listing of Yushu Technology has directly impacted the traditional industrial robot and industrial control automation industries.
A large number of people around me who are earnestly working on PLCs, industrial automation, sensors, and designing industrial robotic arms with the world's top one or two performance indicators, spend their days in the lab debugging, exhausted like crazy, just to improve performance by 30% or reduce error by 30%.
Despite this, profit margins are very low, and financing is unlikely; they have basically become honest manufacturing workers.
Yushu Technology and a dozen or so large smart remote-controlled toy companies in China have precisely absorbed the money from these manufacturing industries into the pockets of primary market PEVCs. One company alone raised a total of hundreds of billions in pre-IPO funding, with other companies waiting in line.
This is simply because Yushu Technology appeared on the Spring Festival Gala, trended on Douyin, was praised in various ways, attended the Central Entrepreneurs Symposium, and received green lights all the way from the financial regulatory bureau and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding its listing, causing other PEVCs to swarm in, aiming to create 20 more Wang Xings and Yushu Technologies to collectively reap profits.
This situation is very frightening because after this round of bubble burst and collapse, it will have consumed all the capital of high-end manufacturing in the primary market, making it extremely difficult for other honest industrial automation and robotic arm companies to secure financing. It is estimated that many companies will face life-or-death challenges.The US August nonfarm payroll data released last night was significantly higher than market expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added, and interest rate market bets on rate hikes quickly heating up. This macro variable directly triggered a sharp reaction in the crypto market: $BTC retreated sharply from their highs, while storage stocks like $SNDK bucked the trend and strengthened, showing a striking divergence in capital flows. 🌪️ At this stage, macro data has regained control over the market. This week, the market logic is relatively clear: rate hike expectations fluctuate with various economic indicators, but what truly determines the outcome will be the CPI and PPI data to be released next week. Before these key inflation data are released, the market is unlikely to show a clear one-sided trend. From a detailed market observation, Bitcoin is digesting overbought pressure at high levels. The price touched yesterday basically formed a short-term top area, and mainstream altcoins like $ZEC have also entered a correction rhythm. Meanwhile, the storage sector surged collectively last night, and related US stocks may have room for catch-up and discount recovery. This round of correction may not be a bad thing. A rate hike is almost certain, not in September but in October or November. If risks can be released early, the daily RSI indicator can quickly exit the overbought zone, laying a more solid foundation for subsequent movements. Institutional funds also show divergence: on the 2nd, there was a net inflow of $101 million, but on both the 1st and 3rd, there was a clear outflow, with sentiment shifting very quickly. In terms of short-term technical levels, $78,000 forms the cap24h Market-Wide Volume: $98.5B Bitcoin walked into Friday looking strong. It had just cleared the $82,000 resistance zone on rising volume and traders were eyeing $85,000 as the next logical target. The mood across the board was Greed sentiment gauges were flashing confidence and altcoins were riding $BTC coattails higher. Then the jobs report landed. Act Two: The Shock August payrolls came in at 162,000 roughly five times the average pace of the prior year. In a market that had been pricing in 🚨$BTC $ETH: Will this bear market really "rhyme" with history?
More and more people recently have started comparing the current market to 2013–2015 and 2018–2020.
If it really follows a similar script, BTC may still have to go through several months of repeated bottom building, rebounds, pullbacks, and rebounds again. The market won't end abruptly but will continuously test bulls' patience.
ETH's risk might be even greater. 📉
If we compare it to the structural adjustment of 2018–2020, ETH could even face an extreme scenario of further decline, with some in the market targeting the $528–700 range.
But I want to emphasize: historical cycles are references, not scripts.
Now BTC already has ETFs and institutional funds involved, so the market structure is completely different from 2013 and 2018. We can't simply apply past declines directly to today.
So what I really focus on is not "whether ETH can drop to 528," but whether BTC can hold key structures, whether ETH/BTC can stop falling, and whether altcoin funds continue to drain.
📌 If these signals keep worsening, the bear market could last longer than expected.
Which cycle does the market want to replicate?
No one knows yet, but the price will ultimately give the answer.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Gold at 4437 USD, do you dare to short it?
First look at the surface: big bearish news, but no crash.
On Friday, the US August nonfarm payrolls recorded +162,000, while the market expected only 56,000, exceeding expectations by 3 times! The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. As soon as the data was released, gold prices instantly dropped over 2%, hitting a low of 4365. Then what? It bounced back, closing near 4430.
First point: Nonfarm payrolls are fierce, but gold didn’t die.
On September 4, the US Department of Labor released August nonfarm payrolls: an increase of 162,000, expected only 56,000, and the previous value was significantly revised upward. This data pushed the probability of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike from 50% to 60%.
Once the news came out, gold was instantly hammered down over 2%, bottoming at 4365. The US dollar index surged to a two-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield soared.
Then what? Gold did not continue to collapse; instead, it bounced back from 4365 to 4437, recovering more than half of the losses.
Second point: Central banks are buying, institutions are watching, retail investors are panicking.
When the market was hammered on Friday, did you ever wonder who was buying at 4365?
The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 18 consecutive months; Turkey, Poland, and India are also buying. Goldman Sachs’ year-end target price is 4900, and the global central banks’ de-dollarization steps have never stopped.
Retail investors panic thinking "rate hikes mean gold is finished," while central banks quietly accumulate. A familiar recipe, a familiar taste.
Third point: Next week’s CPI is the real "life or death verdict."
September 10 PPI, September 11 core CPI. The market expects core monthly rate at 0.2%.
If CPI is below 0.2%: rate hike expectations cool down, gold will take off directly, target 4480-4530.
If CPI is above 0.2%: rate hike expectations surge to over 70%, gold will be hammered again short-term to 4365 or even 4282.
Fourth point: Technicals say — the bullish structure is not dead.
Daily chart: rebounded about 10% from the low in August, reaching a high of 4697. This week formed a higher low at 4282, on Friday it was hammered to 4365 but immediately bounced back, closing at 4430. Overall, it remains within the large range of 4282-4697, which is a strong correction, not a trend reversal.
Resistance above: 4480-4500 → 4536 (200-day moving average) → 4697 (August high)
Support below: 4400-4410 → 4365 (Friday low) → 4282 (key structure, breaking it would be troublesome)
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
Central banks have bought gold for 18 consecutive months, the de-dollarization logic is rock solid
Bounced back from 4365 to 4437 on Friday, strong buying support below
Higher low structure at 4282 intact, medium-term bias still bullish
Goldman Sachs year-end target 4900, rarely wrong historically
On the other side:
Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations by 3 times, rate hike probability surged to 60%
If next week’s CPI is hot, September rate hike is basically certain
US dollar and US Treasury yields both strengthen
Resistance at 4480-4500 right overhead
Trading strategy
Conservative:
Wait for CPI data before acting:
If CPI is weak (below 0.2%): go long after a pullback to 4400-4410 stabilizes, target 4480-4530, stop loss 4360
If CPI is hot (above 0.2%): short on resistance at 4480-4500, target 4365-4280, stop loss 4530
Short-term traders:
Long: don’t chase below 4430, wait for pullback to 4410-4400 to stabilize, try light long positions, tight stop loss at 4360
Short: try shorting on a rally to 4470-4500 if momentum stalls, stop loss 4530
Medium-term traders:
As long as 4282 holds, buy on dips, target 4500-4700. If 4282 breaks, wait and watch, next support at 4200-4150.
Nonfarm payrolls didn’t kill gold; next week’s CPI is the real test —
99% of people see the nonfarm beat and think "gold is finished," but they don’t see central banks buying, strong buying at 4365, or the intact higher low structure at 4282.
The day 4480 breaks out, you’ll realize:
It’s not that gold is weak, it’s that you always cut losses at the lowest point when data crushes the market.
What is your gold cost?
At 4437, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$BTC $XAU $XAUT Recently, the market was happily discussing "when the interest rate cuts would start," but as soon as the August non-farm payroll data came out, it shattered everyone's illusions. Cleveland Fed President Hammack openly posted a tough message: the current interest rates are far from tight enough, inflation is still too high, and now is the time to raise rates! Once the news broke, the CME interest rate futures showed the probability of a September rate hike soaring to 58.6%, and Citibank pushed back its forecast for the first rate cut all the way to June 2027. Sorting through this mess of data, essentially three forces are clashing: 1. The non-farm payroll data is too strong, providing "ammunition" for the hawks. In August, the US added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the previously low expectations. For hawkish officials in the Federal Reserve, this is a reassuring sign—since the labor market is so resilient, it means the economy hasn't collapsed, so continuing to raise rates to fight inflation carries no worries. 2. Macro data is severely fragmented; ordinary people are actually experiencing a "hidden decline." The data looks good but is structurally very awkward. Allianz's data shows that the annualized wage growth in August dropped to a low of 3.09%, and after deducting price increases, real wage growth has turned negative. In other words, people's incomes are not keeping up with rising prices, and purchasing power is shrinking. This leads to an extremely awkward situation: Trump is calling on the Fed to cut rates to save livelihoods, but Fed officials only see that "inflation has not yet been suppressed" Capital Is Not Leaving Crypto. It Is Choosing Where to Sit.
The most interesting signal in crypto right now is not whether $BTC goes up or down.
It is where institutional capital is choosing to sit.
Recent ETF data shows how quickly that preference can change. Bitcoin ETFs attracted strong inflows earlier this week, while previous sessions saw $ETH, $SOL and $XRP products attracting capital even as Bitcoin funds recorded outflows. ([turn0search19]turn0search19) ([turn0search18]turn0search📌 Sandisk confirmed to be included in the S&P 100 Index, effective September 21!
Starting next week, index funds will gradually begin rebalancing and pricing. After the announcement, Sandisk's stock price surged nearly 12% at one point, and the company also announced a $14 billion stock buyback plan.
Looking at the market, $BTC is currently around $79,663, with the overall market still in a high-level consolidation phase. The AI storage sector sentiment continues to spill over, and some computing power-related stocks have also been somewhat boosted.
📊 Market Consensus
Bullish views believe:
Inclusion in the S&P 100 is expected to bring substantial passive ETF capital allocation demand, coupled with the continuously growing storage demand in the AI era, Sandisk's stock price still has room for further upside.
The cautious camp reminds:
The stock price has already experienced a significant rise, and the market may have priced in this expectation in advance. After the news is fully realized, a short-term "buy the rumor, sell the fact" correction cannot be ruled out.
🔍 Underlying Logic
The core impact of index inclusion is essentially forced rebalancing by passive funds, which is more driven by short-term capital flows and does not imply a fundamental change in the company.
From a longer-term perspective, the stock price ultimately still needs fundamental support, with key focus on NAND flash price trends, actual fulfillment of AI enterprise orders, and future growth potential.
As for the crypto market, it currently reflects more of an emotional linkage. The strength of AI storage, computing power, and other tech sectors can improve risk appetite ETF flows on September 3rd have brought some different voices to the market. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $730.8 million that day, while Ethereum ETFs recorded $141.4 million, totaling about $872 million in a single day. On the surface, this is just the accumulation of numbers, but looking at the longer term, institutional funds have almost exclusively recognized Bitcoin over the past few months. Now that Ethereum is starting to take on buying in unison, this change is worth slowing down to experience. 🌊 This may not be the prelude to the altcoin season, but rather seems like institutional crypto allocations actively expanding their boundaries. What really needs to be watched is whether Ethereum can sustain this momentum and whether SOL, XRP, and BNB will see stronger relative demand as a result. Once funds continue to move downward along the risk curve, public chain tokens like SUI, APT, AVAX, NEAR, and SEI will gradually come into view; If DeFi assets like AAVE, UNI, CRV, and PENDLE also see sustained rather than impulse buying, it means liquidity is truly flowing back into the on-chain ecosystem, which is far more significant than isolated sell-offs. The infrastructure and tokenization directions represented by LINK and ONDO, as well as highly elastic AI concepts like TAO, RENDER, FET, may also become stops for subsequent rotations. Just remember, institutions buying Bitcoin and Ethereum does not mean they are buying the entire crypto market. A more significant signal is whether this capital can be smoothly spread across sectors. If leading ETFs continue to attract funds and other assets start to outperform the market, we may be in a roundSanDisk's fundamental qualitative change is real—NBM long-term contracts, data center proportion rising from 12% to 38%, 80%+ gross margin, none of these are hype. But after the stock price has risen 2900% from the low, any pullback will be extremely intense. It is possible to go long before inclusion in the S&P 100, but stop-loss must be set; long-term positions can be held, but be mentally prepared for a 30%-50% pullback. The storage industry's cyclical nature has not been eliminated, it has just been extended by AI—yet an extended cycle is still a cycle. $SNDK $xNVDA rose again! Nvidia's market value has surpassed 5.4 trillion
But even more impressive than the stock price is that it quietly restarted the Rubin CPX project, which had been canceled.
On September 4, NVDA closed at 230.36, up 0.84%, and continued climbing after hours, pushing its market value to 5.56 trillion. On September 3, it rose more than 3%, along with Facebook, SK Hynix, and Micron, all up over 2%, with the three major indexes all in the green. On the surface, this looks like a continuation of the AI narrative, but there is an underestimated bombshell in the news: Nvidia has restarted the AI inference prefill acceleration GPU "Rubin CPX" project, with major design adjustments, expected to enter mass production in Q1 2027.
What does this mean? The arms race for inference computing power is far from over. CPX specifically targets the prefill bottleneck in large model inference. Once mass-produced, it will trigger a new wave of data center procurement. For the crypto community, strong NVDA = strong AI capital expenditure = strong risk appetite = support for BTC and AI concept tokens.
But I have to pour cold water: current interest rate expectations are changing. The nonfarm payrolls data blew past expectations, pushing the probability of a September rate hike back to 60%. High interest rates will eventually suppress high valuations. NVDA is currently trading at 29 times PE; whether it's expensive or not is subjective, but its price movements are already tightly linked to risk appetite in the crypto space.The three biggest fools
The first one trades T between $70 and $90 for crude oil, and when it hits $70, he just hits Iran.
The second one watches the US Treasury yield; when the 30-year yield hits 5.2%, he starts babbling.
The third one watches the September rate hike probability; when it drops to 30%, he gets tough.
When it rises to 70%, he just messes around casually.
These three brothers each play their own game, independent yet interfering with each other
$BTC $ETH $RIVER is destined to have another big dump, the whales are already on their way
Looking at the on-chain transactions, 200,000 tokens were transferred out through the splitter, just waiting for the dump
If you still believe it will rise, that would be surprising ZEC's fierce rally is throwing a familiar sense of torment onto the market—not the regret of short positions, but those who hesitate and wait all along. When the price went from $800 to $900, to $900 and no one dared to chase, and then to $1,000 waiting for a correction, the rally kept hitting new heights, recently reaching near $1,050, a historic high in nearly a decade. Looking back a month ago, ZEC was hovering around $500, but now it has nearly doubled, with a 30-day increase of about 94% and a yearly cumulative increase of over 2,300%. Behind this round of rallying is no longer simply "privacy coin speculation." Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF brought in at least $34.4 million in net inflows, with the revival of privacy narratives intertwined with growth in mining hashrate, creating a rare resonance between funds, stories, and chips. What's even more intriguing is the bears' dilemma—when the price reached $1,000, about $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with over $34.5 million coming from shorts. The crypto market once again played out the classic scenario: the more people think "too much has risen and should fall," the more people go against the trend to short the market, and the buy-ins triggered by liquidations in turn drive the price, fueling the bears' judgment. The price from $500 to $1,000 may still rely on trend inertia, but the battle above $1,000 is more about psychological resilience, liquidity, and holding structure. Historical highs are often accompanied by intense volatility, and whether the trend can continue or deepenNon-farm payroll data was released, and the crypto market first experienced a sharp drop. The US added 162,000 jobs in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 53,000, marking the highest since March. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and the data for the previous two months was revised upward by a total of 55,000. The strong employment figures quickly fueled expectations of interest rate hikes, putting pressure on risk assets collectively. BTC plunged briefly and fell below the $81,000 mark.
However, this report is not without discrepancies. Looking closely at the structure, new jobs were mainly concentrated in the catering and local education sectors, while the information industry is still laying off employees; average hourly wages rose only 3.1% year-on-year, indicating wage inflation has not accelerated. Some institutions believe that a single data point may not drive the Federal Reserve to make a significant shift, and Wash also emphasized that inflation remains a higher priority than employment.
The non-farm payrolls seem more like a fuse igniting the market; the real decisive factor will be the CPI data released on September 11. Market sentiment often fluctuates sharply after data releases, and the short-term direction remains unclear. Rather than rushing to judgment, it is better to first observe the more complete signals given by the inflation data, stay calm amid the storm, and see clearly before acting. This is far more important than hastily chasing gains or selling off.
Risk warning: Market volatility is intense. The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions carefully. $BTCETF sucked in $3.8 billion crazily over three weeks, the strongest record for 2026! But don't get too excited yet
SoSoValue just updated the numbers: US spot BTC ETFs have risen for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net inflow of $3.8 billion, and a single-week inflow of $987 million this week, directly sealing the strongest three-week streak of 2026.
Breaking it down is even more impressive—
• BlackRock IBIT alone took in $117.4 million on Friday, accounting for 67% of the day's total
• Fidelity FBTC followed with $57.2 million
• Other funds had zero inflow that day; money is crowding into the top players
What about the price? BTC dropped from 81,200 to below 79,000 on Friday, then bounced back to 79,700, still up +2.6% over 7 days. Buying ETFs while prices fall doesn’t look like retail panic; it’s institutions dollar-cost averaging.
But three cold facts to cool down:
1) Year-to-date, ETFs still have a net outflow of about $1 billion; these three weeks are just a recovery;
2) ETH/XRP ETFs saw inflows drop by 74% and 83% respectively in the same week; funds are withdrawing from altcoins to switch to BTC;
3) $731 million on Thursday alone, but only $175 million on Friday; the pace is slowing.
My judgment: this is not a confirmed reversal, but institutions picking up chips at low prices. To establish a real trend, we need to see if IBIT can stay positive for five consecutive weeks.🇺🇸 THE BTC-TO-DEBT GAP IS GETTING WIDER.
The U.S. national debt is now around $40T, while Bitcoin’s maximum supply remains capped at 21M coins.
That works out to roughly $1.9M of U.S. debt per potential BTC, compared with about $1.26M a decade ago.
This doesn’t mean $BTC is worth $1.9M today.
It simply highlights the contrast: debt can keep growing, while Bitcoin’s supply stays fixed. 📊
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC BTC ETF attracted $731 million in one day, but the price fell back to 80,000: This is why I'm not chasing now
Article body:
My conclusion: I remain bullish on BTC, but I won’t chase it around the 80,000 mark just because of the "ETF surge."
The strongest bullish evidence in the market right now is impressive:
The US BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about $731 million in one day, the largest since January, with BlackRock IBIT absorbing about $454 million.
If you only look at this data, the easiest conclusion is:
Institutions are back, next stop 85,000 or even higher.
But I care more about another question:
After $700 million in buying came in, why did BTC surge to 82,200 and then fall back near 80,000?
Because this rally is not entirely driven by new spot demand.
About $448 million in shorts were liquidated during the same period, meaning part of the rise came from shorts being forced to cover.
And now strong non-farm payrolls are pushing interest rate pressure back up.
So the market is actually undergoing a very clean test:
Can the ETF continue to absorb macro pressure and selling near 82,000–83,000?
My plan is simple.
If BTC truly breaks through and holds above 83,000, and the ETF continues net inflows, I will define this rally as a new trend driven by institutional funds.
If the ETF continues to bring in hundreds of millions daily but BTC can’t surpass 83,000, I will become more cautious.Hyperliquid's open interest in perpetual contracts rises to 10.2%, with on-chain derivatives platforms continuing to encroach on the CEX market. According to Hypeflows data, based on the size of open interest, Hyperliquid currently holds 10.2% of the global perpetual contract market, covering all centralized exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX, slightly below the all-time high of 10.4% set at the end of July. HYPE is currently trading at $85.09, down 2.4% in 24 hours. Hyperliquid is currently the leading platform in the on-chain derivatives sector, adopting a self-built L1 public chain and a full-chain central limit order book model, allowing users to trade perpetual contracts without KYC and through self-custody wallets. This 10.2% share is calculated based on open interest. Compared to trading volume, open interest better reflects the actual amount of funds held on the platform, making it widely regarded as a core indicator of platform depth and user stickiness. This means that the open interest on Hyperliquid alone is about one-tenth of the total perpetual contract size of all centralized exchanges worldwide, enough to rival or even surpass the individual scale of some leading centralized exchanges. From the trend perspective, this share reached a historic high of 10.4% at the end of July, and the current 10.2% is a stabilization after a slight pullback from the high, with no share lossAnalyst: The activity of the OG group holding Bitcoin for over 5 years has recently intensified
On-chain data shows that the activity of Bitcoin OG old addresses holding for more than 5 years has significantly increased recently, with the 90-day average of related UTXOs doubling compared to May. The long-dormant early chips have started moving on-chain.
Personal view: Do not immediately interpret old coin movements as massive sell-offs.
On-chain transfers do not equal selling. Some are due to hardware wallet security incidents, with OGs migrating assets to newer, more secure cold wallets; others involve asset reorganization and custody changes, with many funds flowing to newly created addresses rather than directly to exchange addresses.
However, vigilance is still necessary.
These chips have extremely low holding costs and huge unrealized gains. If a large amount of OG assets are observed continuously flowing into exchanges later, that would be a true profit-taking signal and bring real selling pressure. At this stage, it is only an anomaly warning, not a definitive peak signal.
Currently, combined with the rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and ongoing non-farm payroll effects, macro factors still dominate the market. On-chain data can only serve as auxiliary observation and should not be used alone as a basis for opening positions.
In practice, do not panic sell spot holdings; for contracts, further control leverage and continuously monitor two indicators: whether OG address funds are flowing massively to exchanges, and the net inflow/outflow changes of exchange $BTC.Many people keep staring at K-line charts looking for reasons behind the cryptocurrency market's ups and downs, but the real drivers of the market are not within the crypto circle; they are the policy trends coming from across the ocean in the United States.
The rebound in August originated from the marginal easing of U.S. monetary policy. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to fall in response and the U.S. dollar to weaken. The holding cost of Bitcoin consequently decreased, attracting a large influx of capital. Throughout August, Bitcoin's price rose nearly 25%, and spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.5 billion in a single month, hitting a new high in over a year.
Entering September, the market continued to rise following this logic. Waller's dovish remarks led the market to interpret a lower probability of a rate hike in September, prompting a collective rebound in various risk assets.
However, the nonfarm payroll data poured cold water on this optimism. The addition of 162,000 jobs far exceeded all market institutions' forecasts. Hot employment data gave the Federal Reserve more confidence to continue tightening monetary policy, and many institutions shifted to a hawkish stance.
In the past two days, the cryptocurrency price has been tugging back and forth, essentially reflecting the market's game over one issue: whether the Federal Reserve will choose to raise interest rates at the FOMC meeting on September 16.
Note: The above is just market chatter and does not constitute any investment advice. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway's NBIM, has put forward a major proposal to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by about $80 billion, lowering the government bond weighting from 70% to 50%.
Note, this is not a complete exit from U.S. Treasuries.
The core demand is straightforward: the current returns on U.S. Treasuries are unsatisfactory, so funds will be reallocated to higher-yielding credit bonds and MBS assets.
NBIM officially stated: retaining a 50% position in government bonds is sufficient to cover liquidity safety buffers, and the remaining funds should pursue higher-risk returns.
This transmission chain is very clear in the crypto space.
A sustained medium- to long-term reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings will further push U.S. Treasury yields to remain high. The persistently high risk-free rate directly raises the opportunity cost of holding interest-free risk assets like BTC and ETH.
Coupled with the recently explosive nonfarm payroll data reinforcing rate hike expectations, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has stabilized above 4.8%, and the macro headwinds are not isolated noise but forming resonance.
On the contract side, the one-sided dominance between bulls and bears has ended; large players have shifted to range trading, with wide volatility becoming the main theme. ETH leverage fluctuates more, and liquidation shocks caused by spikes are much greater than those of $BTC.
#全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% $CORE has permanently burned over 150 million tokens. It sounds like a lot, but with a total supply of 2.1 billion CORE, this only accounts for 0.7%. There are still large amounts unlocking and being sold each month, so this level of burning is far from enough to sustain a continuous price increase.
The trust gap is hard to repair.
Details of the vulnerability, the exact amount of excess rewards, and whether any tokens have already entered the market have not been disclosed by the project team to date.
Coinbase and four other exchanges once suspended deposits and withdrawals, and doubts about governance capabilities will not be eliminated by a single hard fork.
Simply put: fixing the vulnerability is "what should be done," not "beyond expectations." Without fundamental changes to the token economic model, this level of positive news is unlikely to reverse the long-term downtrend. $ZEC $ETH #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价 It is too absolute to simply label this rise as a scam to trap and harvest. A short-term rebound does not mean the main force has specifically designed a trap to find someone to take over the position. Continuous token unlocking will indeed bring long-term selling pressure, but selling pressure does not mean it can suppress the market at every moment. When short-term funds are speculating, a volume surge can completely offset the selling pressure caused by unlocking for a short time.
Large holders who are trapped represent potential selling pressure, but they may not mindlessly dump during every rebound. Some holders may choose to reduce their positions at highs and exit in batches, not necessarily waiting stubbornly for a big market move to break even before selling everything.
WLFI's weak performance only indicates that the entire Sichuan narrative has significantly lost its heat, but market speculation has never followed fixed logic. Short-term speculators can completely abandon WLFI and instead push the small-cap TRUMP for an independent rally.
The trend of sentiment coins depends only on current funds and market heat; it cannot be entirely ruled out based on past decline history, unlocking rules, or competitor performance. While chasing highs carries huge risks, blindly believing that all rebounds are traps can easily cause one to miss out on short-term fund-driven rallies. $TRUMPBro, before opening the K-line chart, ask yourself one question: Are you ready to be repeatedly slapped in the face? Because in the past week, the crypto market's face has been swollen from being hit by the Federal Reserve. --- 1. What happened this week? — It only took 48 hours to go from “bullish rebound” to “run fast” On September 3, Bitcoin powerfully returned to the $80,000 mark, with a single-day increase of over 5%. The group chat was flooded with “bullish rebound” messages, with shouts of “$80,000 finally held” and “this wave will see $100,000” echoing nonstop. On September 4, Bitcoin once broke through $82,000, hitting a new high since May. Bulls had already started planning where to vacation at the end of the year. On September 5, Bitcoin was at $79,701.0, down 1.67%. In 48 hours, from heaven to earth. Why? Because of the US August nonfarm payroll data — an increase of 162,000 jobs. What was the market expectation? 56,000. Three times that. The unemployment rate steadily stayed at 4.1%. June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000. This is not just “okay,” this is explosive. Once the data came out, CME's “FedWatch” showed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September at 58.6%. Just two days ago, this number was hovering around 50/50. A week earlier, after Waller's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, the probability once surged to 66%. Rate hike probabilities of 34%, 66%, 50%, 58% — fluctuating four times within a week. You never know what the probability will be when you wake up tomorrow. The three major US stock indices#闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价
Latest Data
Sandisk has been confirmed for inclusion in the S&P 100 Index, effective September 21. Next week, index funds will begin portfolio adjustments and pricing. After the announcement, the stock price surged nearly 12%, alongside a $14 billion buyback plan. On the market, $BTC is at 79663, with the broader market oscillating at high levels. Sentiment in the AI storage sector is spilling over, slightly boosting computing power-related stocks.
Market Consensus
The bullish view holds that inclusion in the S&P 100 will bring massive passive ETF buying, combined with AI storage demand, leaving room for further stock price gains; cautious voices remind that the stock has already risen sharply, with the market front-running, so actual implementation may trigger a sell-the-news reaction.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Index inclusion triggers forced portfolio adjustments by passive funds, driven by short-term capital flows rather than fundamental changes. Long-term stock price depends on NAND flash prices and fulfillment of AI enterprise orders. For crypto, this is only an emotional transmission and does not change the macro-driven trend of $BTC itself.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
Personal View (I personally lean towards a gradual return of the bull market; this is solely my opinion and not investment advice)
Key focus is on the real capital flow after next week's portfolio adjustments settle. Avoid chasing impulsive moves driven by news and manage position sizes.$BTC BTC consolidates at 79,600 — big players are buying, the market is fearful
After surging to 82,000, it pulled back and is currently oscillating around 79,600.
📉 Bearish factors: Nonfarm payrolls blow past expectations
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the forecast was only 56,000, nearly triple the expectation. The probability of a Fed rate hike this month rose from 52% to 59%, and U.S. Treasury yields soared to 4.78%, suppressing risk assets.
📈 Bullish factors: ETF frenzy buying
On September 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $730 million in a single day, marking the third-largest daily inflow this year. BlackRock alone contributed $454 million. Institutions are desperately accumulating chips during the dip.
Key juncture: Direction to be decided next week
September 11 CPI data + September 15-16 FOMC rate decision. Soft CPI → potential surge to 85,000; Hot CPI → possible pullback to 76,000 or even lower.
Big players' buying support vs. rate hike expectations pressure. The direction will be chosen very soonDon't rush to say CLARITY has passed. September 15 is not the final review at all.
Many people mistake the 14:15 vote on September 15 Eastern Time as the bill passing or not.
The truth is it was just a cloture vote.
It requires 60 votes to end the lengthy debate and move on to discuss the main text.
It doesn't mean it passed. There are still the Senate final review, House conference, and presidential signing.
The House passed it on July 20 with 294 to 134 votes.
The Senate committee advanced it with 26 to 15 votes.
With the current 53 seats, it needs at least 7 bipartisan Democratic votes.
The sticking point is the morality clause and the ban on interest payments on stablecoin idle balances.
The bill has ballooned from about 309 pages to about 616 pages, with increasing disagreements.
Prediction markets are even more exaggerated.
Polymarket estimates about 16% chance of enactment this year, Kalshi about 49%.
The price difference on the same issue between the two can be threefold.
Suddenly it makes sense. There are two parallel regulatory tracks.
The legislative window only has about 14 working days left.
The SEC already pushed Regulation Crypto Assets on August 18.
Regardless of whether it fails on the 15th, administrative rules will move forward.
If BTC ETH fall under it, they will become digital commodities under the CFTC.
Don't mistake a procedural vote for regulatory implementation. Watch both tracks, not just slogans.BNB's surge to $750 is the result of several factors coming together:
1. Pasteur upgrade implemented, network performance doubled
At the end of August, BNB Chain activated the Pasteur hard fork, increasing test throughput to 2,324 TPS. On September 4, the Lorentz hard fork was announced, which can reduce Gas fees by 20%. Two consecutive technical upgrades have reignited market confidence in BNB Chain's long-term value.
2. Kalshi launches compliant contracts
On September 4, Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, launched BNB perpetual contracts, allowing U.S. traders to use up to 4.5x leverage. The opening of a compliant channel provides institutional funds with a new entry point.
3. Altcoin season arrives, funds rotating
After the Fed's dovish stance, funds flowed from BTC to altcoins and Meme coins. Over the past 24-48 hours, more than $370 million in shorts were liquidated, with high-beta assets absorbing most forced buy orders. BNB breaking through 700 reflects position resetting. UNI, GRAM, and LINK are all rising.
Technically, BNB is already above all major moving averages, with RSI around 73 entering the overbought zone. The next resistance is at 750-760, with support at 690-700. The Pasteur upgrade combined with quarterly buyback and burn provides fundamental support for this rally. However, the short-term overbought signal is obvious, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing now is average; better to wait for a pullback.
$BNB $BTC $ETH The nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 look explosive, but there's quite a bit of fluff behind it: leisure and hospitality rebounded by 62,000, and local government education rose by 42,000, these two account for most of it. Barclays suggests using the three-month average of private nonfarm payrolls at 75,000 as a cleaner reference indicator. Nonfarm payrolls gave the Federal Reserve the confidence to raise rates, but the real trigger will be next week's CPI. The market was scared by the data; Bitcoin dropped from 81,000 to 79,000, OKB hit a low of 106.43, now stabilized at 109. Holding steady under macro shocks indicates that selling pressure at this level isn't heavy. In the short term, it will still grind between 106 and 111. Hold for now and wait for the CPI release before making further moves.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $OKB surged 140% in one day and then fell back to 108. Is Lao Xu's "burn" really creating scarcity or just cutting leeks?
65.25 million OKB tokens were burned into a black hole at once, pushing the price from 47 to 140, doubling in one day, but today it has dropped back to 108, and those chasing the high are now in the ICU.
On September 4, OKX officially sent 65,256,712 OKB tokens to a black hole address, burning all historical buybacks and treasury reserves. The total supply is permanently locked at 21 million tokens, and the contract level has sealed off any further issuance. This is one of the largest burns in crypto history (about 7.6 billion USD), with RSI instantly soaring above 94 and trading volume exploding 130 times.
The story is compelling: total supply benchmarked against BTC, X Layer upgraded to 5000 TPS, OKX US IPO accelerating, Chainlink collaboration on RWA pricing, and cooperation with ICE on US stock tokenization. This "exchange + public chain + institution" combo punch has indeed transformed OKB from a platform token into an infrastructure token.
Burning controls supply, but whether demand keeps up is the key. OKB's 24-hour trading volume is only about 15 million USD, liquidity is as thin as paper, and a single large order can move the price by several points. Also, it only took one month to rise from 80 to 117, so much of the expectation is already priced in. 112 is 49% of the historical high (225.9), so it's not cheap Harmak repeated the hawkish remarks again: the policy is not tight enough, inflation is too high, it's time to raise interest rates.
Her exact words were "It's time to take action." She also gave an example—a manufacturing business owner in Ohio directly told her that the Federal Reserve should raise rates because raw material prices are rising in double digits. Harmak was one of the three officials who voted against the July meeting, and with the nonfarm payroll data of 162,000 released, it has given her more confidence.
CME data shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has risen from about 50% before the nonfarm payrolls to over 60%. Citibank is even more direct, pushing the first expected rate cut from October 2026 to June 2027.
However, the wage growth rate in August dropped to an annual low of 3.09%, and real wage growth has turned negative. Allianz has warned that with wages falling, consumption may not hold up. But the Federal Reserve is clearly more focused on inflation than wages now.
Next Wednesday's CPI is the last card before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Bloomberg expects the overall CPI year-over-year to rise to 3.4%, with the core CPI dropping to 2.4%. Harmak has already made her stance clear, and employment data supports her—unless the CPI is significantly below expectations, a rate hike in September is basically unavoidable.
As for Bitcoin $BTC, the rate hike probability breaking 60% means the US dollar and US Treasury yields will face short-term pressure, and risk assets will take a hit first. How long the 77,000-78,000 level can hold depends on whether Wednesday's CPI gives a chance for a turnaround. #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% On September 3rd, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs rose to 1,267,290.77 BTC, with a net increase of 8,206.67 BTC on the day. This not only reversed the back-and-forth situation seen on September 1st and 2nd but also pushed the total holdings to a new high in this recent cycle.
So far this week, there has been a cumulative net increase of 9,289.73 BTC, with a cumulative net increase of 12,898.51 BTC over the past 7 trading days, and a net increase of 6,689.93 BTC since September began. This indicates that BTC's capital flow has shifted from hesitation in the previous days back to active replenishment, with the single-day increase already surpassing the inflow levels of August 31st and September 2nd.
However, the problem remains that since 2026, BTC spot ETFs have still cumulatively decreased by 30,676.17 BTC. This shows that although the recent continuous replenishment is strong, it is mostly repairing the earlier losses within the year and has not yet fully turned into a new long-term expansion cycle. If the next few days can continue to maintain a daily net inflow of several thousand BTC or more, this round of recovery will be more solid.Why does the non-farm payroll have limited impact on the US stock market but is so sensitive to $BTC?
I find this recent phenomenon quite interesting: after the non-farm data is released, although the US stock market fluctuates, BTC's reaction is clearly more direct. Why?
Let's look at this data. In August, US non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly higher than market expectations, with the unemployment rate holding at 4#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债
"Disliking Treasuries, Norway Sheds $80 Billion"
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund managing two trillion just submitted a long letter, and an $80 billion Treasury position is about to be forcibly moved out of the vault.
Everyone outside thinks the Nordic giant is completely withdrawing from the US, but the total dollar exposure hasn't even moved half a percent; it's purely because the interest from pure Treasuries is too thin, unable to beat inflation and carrying prolonged risks.
The huge freed-up cash is being slammed into semi-officially guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, which have semi-official hardcore credit backing and can earn a solid extra several dozen basis points of rich spread annually.
Behind the portfolio reshuffle is a defensive self-rescue; the account still holds $1.6 trillion heavily invested in tech stocks, so it must rely on thicker spread cash flow to cushion potential major market shocks.
Even the most loyal financier openly admits the cost-effectiveness of Treasuries is insufficient; this credit reshuffle around risk-free assets has quietly begun. $BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Everyone, the BTC to gold ratio has hit a new high again. One BTC can now be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold, the highest point since January this year. The 90-day correlation between the two has also risen to the highest level since 2020, as concerns over debt expansion and declining monetary purchasing power are simultaneously fueling both asset classes.
But I think this ratio has risen more due to liquidity expectations fermenting, rather than BTC truly replacing gold's safe-haven status. The logic behind the two is different—gold is influenced by real interest rates and central bank allocations, while BTC is driven by liquidity improvement expectations and ETF buying. A short-term rise in correlation does not mean long-term substitution.
Market divergence is also widening. Yili Hua and Scaramucci are optimistic about the bull market narrative of scarce assets, while Jiang Zhuoer completely exited near 82,050. Both bulls and bears raising their hands simultaneously is not a bad thing; it shows the market is still in a game of tug-of-war, and a one-sided consensus has not yet formed.
What truly determines whether BTC can continue to outperform gold is not the macro narrative, but whether spot demand can absorb the sell orders around 80,000 to 82,500. If ETF and spot buying continue to keep up, BTC's strength relative to gold can persist. If buying dries up, this ratio will have to pull back.
Above 80,000 is a dense chip area, and every step requires real money to digest. Let's watch as we go and talk again when the direction becomes clear. How far do you think the BTC and gold linkage can go? Let's chat in the comments. Wishing you smooth trading. $BTC $XAU $ETH That's why BTC is sensitive to interest rates.
Look at Coinbase... it's actually the sensitivity of "Americans" that transmits more quickly to BTC.
When the small non-farm payroll and Waller's statements lowered rate hike expectations, Coinbase's SVD (Spot Volume Delta) instantly surged significantly. This reflects strong proactive buying momentum.
And when employment data far exceeded expectations, it triggered concerns about rate hikes again. SVD quickly fell back.
However, proactive selling hasn't shown very strong performance yet (of course, it could also be due to the approaching weekend).
So overall, my feeling is: currently BTC is more sensitive to "positive news" and relatively less sensitive to "negative news."
Of course, there are two important upcoming dates:
1. The CPI data on September 11, whether it strengthens rate hike expectations;
2. The FOMC on September 15-16; even if there is no rate hike, Warsh's wording at the subsequent press conference will become a second source of impact.
Regarding this, my personal view remains unchanged:
From now on, gradually build a "bull market mindset" and abandon the "bear market mindset"; in the face of any negative news, the only thing to consider is "how to find buying opportunities."
And don't always think about "shorting" or "swing trading"; the former lacks cost-effectiveness, and the latter easily disrupts trading rhythm.If the market continues like this, $UNI is bound to spiral skyward.
Yesterday, Uniswap burned 178,000 UNI tokens worth 1.11 million USD, with the Robinhood Chain alone contributing 144,000 tokens, accounting for over 80%.
After the proposal passed on July 15, Uniswap's protocol fee revenue became tied to UNI buyback and burn, so the trading volume on Robinhood Chain directly translates into UNI buy and burn.
On September 4, Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume exceeded 3 billion, with Uniswap dominating 98%, which led to a single-day burn record exceeding one million USD.
However, Standard Chartered Bank previously poured cold water on this, saying that at the burn rate in mid-August, the annualized amount equals 4% of the circulating supply, which is "clearly unsustainable."
Once trading heat cools down, this buy pressure will also shrink. Anyway, just enjoy the ride, don’t get too carried away, folks! $UNI #The world's largest sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce $80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings
The world's largest sovereign wealth fund is also selling U.S. Treasuries, $80 billion.
The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, managing $2.3 trillion, is the largest globally. On September 1, it sent a letter to the Norwegian Ministry of Finance recommending reducing the government bond weight in the benchmark index from 70% to 50%. This amounts to selling about $106 billion in government bonds, of which $80 billion are U.S. Treasuries.
The proportion of U.S. Treasuries in its bond portfolio will be cut from 34.1% directly down to 21.9%, nearly a one-third reduction.
Why sell? The official explanation is "diversify the fixed income portfolio and improve returns." Simply put, although U.S. Treasuries offer high yields, they also carry significant risk, and they don't want to put all their eggs in one basket. What will they buy instead? They are shifting to higher-risk U.S. corporate bonds, MBS, and others with higher yields.
Interestingly, Bessent downplayed the issue, saying it's no big deal. But the market disagrees; when the world's largest buyer is reducing holdings and U.S. Treasury yields remain high at 4.8% and 5.27%, the signal is clear.
For BTC, this is a long-term positive. With $40 trillion in U.S. Treasuries and $1.22 trillion in annual interest, even the largest sovereign wealth fund is reducing exposure, indicating that the dollar's credit will eventually face problems. BTC, as a hedge against fiat currency risk, has an even stronger logic. In the short term, high U.S. Treasury yields may suppress BTC, but in the long term, some of the funds from selling Treasuries will inevitably flow into BTC. $BTC Market Brief｜Nonfarm Payrolls Crash BTC, ZEC Shows Independent Resilience
Market Overview
Under the bearish impact of nonfarm payroll data, BTC fell below 80,000, with the overall market weakening. However, ZEC held the $1,000 mark and did not follow the market's sharp plunge, showing an independent resilient trend.
Market Capital Flow Signals:
- ZEC broke through the $1,000 level, with about $34.5 million in short positions liquidated within 24 hours, squeezing the bears;
- Since the launch of ZCSH products on August 25, a net inflow of at least $34.4 million has accumulated, with ETF-related funds continuously entering.
Viewpoint: A strong asset is characterized by refusing to follow the market down during a pullback; if the $1,000 level holds steadily, the next target is $1,100.
Market Logic
The market is pressured downward by macro nonfarm bearish factors, but ZEC is supported by capital inflows: ETF-related products continue to attract funds, combined with a large number of short squeezes, forming a short-term capital synergy.
Resilience ≠ Absolute Safety: The independent trend essentially results from capital game dynamics. Once incremental funds retreat, in a systemic market downturn, there remains a risk of catch-up declines later. The strength during market crashes is often driven by existing short squeezes and does not fully represent a fundamental change.
Trading Insights
1. Identify strong coins: Their ability to resist declines during pullbacks is more valuable than their gains during rallies.
2. Focus on the $1,000 support level, which is the dividing line between strength and weakness in this independent trend.Maji Big Brother withdraws Friend.tech acquisition offer, saying it may be blocked by Paradigm, expressing support for restarting on Robinhood Chain. On September 5, "Machi Big Brother" Huang Licheng posted that his acquisition Friend.tech proposal was suspected to be blocked by investor Paradigm, so he withdrew the offer; If founder Racer restarts Friend.tech on Robinhood Chain in the future, he will provide support. Friend.tech is a SocialFi app launched in August 2023 based on Coinhouse's Base network. Users can buy creator keys (later renamed shares) to access private group chats, sparking a social relationship tokenization craze. Within weeks of launch, transaction volume exceeded hundreds of millions of dollars, making it the most phenomenal SocialFi project of the year. Paradigm was an early key investor. As the hype faded, project activity and FRIEND token prices continued to decline. In 2025, the team announced its departure from Base and developed its own chain, then relinquished contract control, which the market widely interpreted as the project essentially entering a semi-abandoned state, causing FRIEND's price to plummet at one point. Huang Licheng's statement revealed two layers of information: First, although Friend.tech has become marginalized, its brand and existing user assets still have value in being acquired and restructured, and the competition between investors and potential buyers during the acquisition process is real; Second,In 1980 gold was 20% of all financial assets. Today, gold and Bitcoin together are under 1%.
That tells you two things.
1. Sound money is still early
2. Money printing isn’t stopping.
$BTC The current market is experiencing an extreme contradiction between bulls and bears: economic data is forcing the Federal Reserve to lean hawkish, while White House rhetoric is strongly pressuring for rate cuts, directly plunging the crypto market into a directional tug-of-war.
Last night, the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls sharply surprised to the upside, with 162,000 new jobs added, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. Coupled with widespread upward revisions of previous data, this completely overturned earlier assessments of weakening employment. As a result, the probability of a September rate hike quickly rebounded to around 60%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar simultaneously rallied, and BTC fell from a high of 82,000 to around 79,800, rapidly cooling the prior liquidity easing rally.
For the crypto market, the core of the trend depends solely on the looseness or tightness of dollar liquidity. Strong employment data means the Fed has the confidence to maintain high interest rates or even hike again, and a high-rate environment continues to suppress risk assets like BTC and ETH. However, the White House's ongoing calls for rate cuts leave a glimmer of hope for easing expectations.
The true ultimate decisive signal will be next week's U.S. CPI data. If inflation cools, strong employment alone won't support a rate hike, easing expectations will be restored, and the crypto market could rebound and recover; if inflation heats up again, the combination of strong employment and high inflation will form a double negative, and this rebound rally will face a significant pullback.
Simply put: presidential rhetoric is an emotional disturbance, data is the real market truth. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% 1. Dash's offline conference is a catalyst. Yesterday's offline meeting in Amsterdam announced two things: embedding AI inference directly into payment scenarios; completing privacy payment testing on mobile devices.
2. Moreover, the ecosystem has had a major upgrade. The Dash mainnet went live, adding decentralized storage and domain name systems, making DASH not just a payment coin but also expanding its application scenarios and project stories.
3. Of course, the trigger was Grayscale launching the Zcash Trust on the 25th, heating up the privacy sector. Retail investors started sweeping the entire privacy track, with three established privacy coins strengthening one after another. DASH is essentially riding the wave, not the main player. BTC is pushing back toward the May highs, but the interesting signal isn’t the price. It’s who is selling into the move. Recent on-chain data shows short-term holders are now realizing profits again, with STH SOPR moving above 1 after months of weakness. At the same time, long-term-holder spending remains relatively subdued — meaning the classic “old holders are dumping everything” signal is not confirmed yet. That distinction matters. If short-term buyers become euphoric while long-term supplyAccording to Brother Dao, SanDisk
- Support: $1,680 (breakthrough pullback level) → $1,600 (previous resistance turned support) → $1,550 (closing price on September 3)
- Resistance: $1,800 (psychological level) → $1,998 (consensus target price from 26 analysts, about 15% upside potential)
1. Jefferies target price is only $1,750, basically reached the current price; Q3 bit shipments expected to increase by 10% QoQ (below the expected 13%), ASP up 8% QoQ (far below Q2's 33%), the fastest phase of NAND price increase may be over
2. Up 612% year-to-date, profits are substantial, any negative news could trigger a sharp pullback
3. Strong non-farm payroll data on September 4, market raised the probability of Fed rate hikes, the market came under pressure (Dow Jones fell 0.51% that day), high valuation tech stocks hit first
4. Western Digital continues to reduce SanDisk equity to cash out, completed a 653,000 share swap transaction in May
Scenario Action Entry Range Stop Loss Target
Pullback Long (Preferred) Light Long $1,680 - $1,700 $1,640 (-2.3%) $1,800 - $1,850
Short on Rally (Aggressive) Light Short $1,800 - $1,820 $1,850 (+1.6%) $1,720 - $1,700
Gap Down Breakdown Wait and See Do not buy below $1,650 L2 sector collectively celebrates, but $ETH remains dormant, the market hides divergent signals
The hawkish non-farm payroll data suppresses the market; BTC surged then retreated, ETH shows increased volatility, with most previous gains quickly given back, returning to a high-level consolidation range. An interesting divergence appears on the chart: ARB, OP, and CRV alternately strengthen, the L2 ecosystem tokens show strong profit-making effects, while ETH, the ecosystem leader, remains flat.
This "little brothers charge ahead, big brother lies flat" market pattern has always been controversial. Some traders see it as a precursor signal for $ETH's subsequent catch-up rally, believing the ecosystem's heat will eventually transmit to the main coin. But another risk must be watched: the continuous boom in the L2 sector may divert funds, diluting Ethereum mainnet's intrinsic value capture ability.
Funds verbally favor the entire Ethereum ecosystem but actually rotate among various sub-sectors. This directly causes the ETH/BTC exchange rate to fail to reclaim the 0.04 threshold, and the market's anticipated independent strength rally has yet to materialize.
The macro environment is also not optimistic. After the non-farm data release, September rate hike expectations continue to rise, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and risks still hang over the market. More notably, if the economy remains resilient, the Federal Reserve lacks reasons for easing, and the arrival of liquidity easing will be later than the market originally expected.
Sector rotation markets seem full of opportunities, but timing entry is especially critical. L2 tokens are highly volatile, chasing highs can easily lead to rapid pullbacks. Do not blindly rush in just because the sector is hot; whether positioning in main coins or ecosystem tokens, wait for clear confirmation signals from the market, manage positions well, and avoid being repeatedly harvested by rotation markets.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #Federal Reserve officials say rate hikes are necessary, with a 58.6% probability in September
Hamak turns hawkish
Policy isn't tight enough, inflation remains high, action is needed
After the 162,000 nonfarm payrolls
September rate hike pricing raised to 58.6%
Citi pushes the first rate cut to mid-2027
But wage growth has dropped to a low of 3.09%
Real wages have turned negative
Trump is still calling for rate cuts
58.6% is a sentiment price, not a verdict
The real turning point depends on the September 11 CPI
If overall and core CPI rise again, rate hikes will be tougher
If CPI softens, the probability can retreat
BTC is stuck grinding near 79,600
Macro is currently controlling risk appetite
So my judgment is
Treat rate hikes as a scenario to guard against
Don't bet fully on direction before CPI
$BTC $ETH #macro #ratehikeThe Bitcoin and gold crossover could be a liquidity trap.
Everyone is focused on the same golden crossover. That's exactly why I don't blindly trade it.
When thousands of traders focus on obvious levels like $82,000 to $84,000, their breakout orders and stop losses can cluster in the same area. This creates liquidity—and liquidity attracts big players.
So even if the broader bullish thesis is correct, BTC might first break support, trigger stops, then reclaim that level. The opposite applies above resistance.
Options positioning adds another layer. Significant option open interest near major strikes can influence dealer hedging and temporarily pin prices near those levels. If price escapes the main gamma area, the resulting hedging flows can also amplify the move.
That's why for me the question isn't:
"Is the golden crossover bullish?"
But rather:
"Where is everyone positioning because they believe it is bullish?"
I no longer see $82,000 to $84,000 as a simple support zone but more as a potential liquidity battleground.
The most obvious trades are often where the market inflicts the greatest pain.
Not financial advice. Do your own research. Citigroup Global TMT Conference and Goldman Sachs Technology Conference (September 8-9)
SanDisk management will attend these two major industry conferences. Lynx Equity clearly points out that this is the most critical catalyst in the near term—if management strongly confirms the AI-driven storage shortage persists, it could trigger a new breakout rally.
The "validation" aspect of the conference outweighs the "incremental" aspect: SanDisk's fundamental narrative (AI storage shortage, NBM long-term contracts) was already fully articulated during the August investor day and Q4 earnings report. This conference is more about reiterating and reinforcing these logics to a broader investor audience rather than releasing entirely new information.
The biggest risk is "nothing new": if management merely repeats previously known statements and the market has already fully priced in these positives, the stock price may not see a significant breakout—even possibly pull back due to "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
Time window sensitivity: The conference (September 8-9) is about two weeks before the S&P 100 officially takes effect (September 21). If the conference releases signals beyond expectations, it will provide stronger fundamental backing for index funds to build positions during this period, creating a positive feedback loop of "fundamental confirmation → passive buying follow-through → stock price rise." $SNDK