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#Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up
Vacancies remain, but hiring has slowed. Yesterday's JOLTS: July job openings at 7.27 million, slightly more than the revised 7.18 million in June, but below the expected 7.3 million. Hiring dropped by 278,000 to 5.05 million, with professional and business services down by 188,000 alone. July official nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%. Initial jobless claims in the most recent week were 203,000, still low. Tonight's US session will see August ADP, with Friday bringing the main nonfarm report.
Rate hike pricing did not wait for this data set to finish. After the Jackson Hole speech, CME priced a 66% chance of a 25 basis point hike on September 15-16, up from around 40% a week ago. Goldman Sachs baseline remains on hold.
This is where the divergence lies. Vacancies haven't collapsed, benefits aren't high, so the market is hiking based on inflation and the Jackson Hole tone; hiring and nonfarm payrolls have softened somewhat. Friday's wage and unemployment data will decide if the 66% chance will be reversed. Don't write the expectation heating up as if the hike has already happened.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up
This set of data is giving me a headache: manufacturing is cooling down, but job vacancies haven't collapsed, and the market has turned to raise the probability of a September rate hike to over 60%.
To put it simply, both bulls and bears can pick out the sentence they want to hear from the data, but the real judge will be the nonfarm payrolls on the evening of September 4.
I just completed a $BTC long position today, didn't make much, but at least I didn't get greedy before the data release. Now I hold a $SOXL long position and a $CAP short position, both with some floating profits, but the more it’s like this, the less I dare to be complacent.
Because if the nonfarm is strong, the dollar and US Treasury yields may continue to rise, and both BTC and US stocks will take a hit first; but if employment weakens significantly and rate hike expectations reverse, risk assets could suddenly ignite.
The most tormenting thing these days is this: the direction is not absent, but it can be overturned at any time by a single data sheet.
So now I don’t guess the nonfarm, I just control my position size. Making small profits is nothing to be ashamed of; it’s truly painful to have a night of data wiped out by a single needle. 1. Macro level: Double negative factors resonate, risk assets collectively bleed Today’s market can be summed up in one word—decline. BTC dropped from the intraday high of $79,166 to the low of $76,762, a 24-hour decline of about 2.4%. ETH simultaneously fell below the $2,400 mark. SOL lost the $100 level, and BNB was at $683. The total market capitalization of the crypto space evaporated about 3.84% in 24 hours, down to $2.62 trillion. The two clear triggers for the sell-off are: The first trigger—escalation of US-Iran military conflict. At noon Eastern Time on September 1, the US military launched airstrikes targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps within Iran, and Iran immediately retaliated with missiles and drones against US targets. Trump warned that if Iran continues retaliation, the next round of strikes will be "stronger and at a higher level." Geopolitical risk directly triggered a risk-off mode, with Brent crude oil surging 4.6% to $94.65 per barrel. The second trigger—rising expectations of Fed rate hikes. This morning, Nikkei News analyzed that Fed Chair Powell hinted that after rate hikes, Bitcoin’s appeal diminishes; funds that had flowed into ETFs for nine consecutive days turned to outflows on August 28. Bloomberg data shows the market’s probability bet on a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 60%. The combined effect of these two events is that Bitcoin is being sold off as a risk asset rather than a safe haven asset—this is the most intriguing aspect. 2. Market details: BTC’s dominance returns to 59%, altcoins are "bleeding alone" There is a set of data worth savoring: the overall market fell 3.84%, but BTC onlyStorage: FIL or AR?
Honestly, comparing these two side by side is naturally biased. They are fundamentally different paths.
FIL operates as "renting hard drives." There is a rental period, and you need to renew upon expiration, like renting a house. The total supply is 2 billion, with baseline release tied to the entire network's computing power; if the computing power doesn't meet the standard, the release is delayed. The advantage is the largest computing power scale and a robust ecosystem; the downside is a complex economic model and persistent secondary selling pressure, making it a "big narrative but slow to materialize."
AR follows a "permanent archiving" model. One-time payment, theoretically permanent storage, like a buyout. The total supply is small, inflation pressure is low, and the narrative is clean. The downside is high storage costs, suitable only for small files, documents, and web snapshots for long-term backup, not for massive hot data.
In terms of news, storage isn't the absolute star this round, but AI and DePIN have been keeping the sector alive. FIL is still working on FVM, retrieval markets, and enterprise-level storage; progress exists but isn't explosive. AR directly leverages AO computers to shift the story from "storage" to "computation," attracting noticeably more capital with this appealing narrative.
In market terms, FIL is a large-cap veteran, moving slowly, rising with difficulty, but also falling sharply, better suited for swing trading; AR has a smaller market cap and a newer narrative, with high elasticity when capital flows in, but also sharp drops, making it a high-risk, high-reward player.
If I had to choose one, I'd pick AR. It's not that FIL lacks value, but this round I'm more willing to buy into the "permanent storage + computation" story. FIL is good for swing trading, AR is suitable for small positions held long-term.
What about you? $FIL $ARNvidia's moat is starting to look bigger than GPUs. A $3.5B MediaTek investment extends its reach into custom AI chips, PCs, cars and rack-scale systems through NVLink Fusion.
The interesting part is the strategy: instead of competing for every chip, Nvidia can make more companies build around its ecosystem.
The risk is paying to expand demand before partners prove the returns. #NvidiaBacksMediaTek A single platform with nearly $12 million in TVL (Total Value Locked) generated $425 million in trading volume within 24 hours — a capital turnover rate exceeding 35 times. This extremely abnormal data reveals a core signal: this is definitely not traditional "buy and hold" retail investors, but a "liquidity frenzy" driven jointly by high-frequency market makers, AI trading agents, and cross-timezone arbitrage funds. Traditional US stocks are limited by strict opening hours and after-hours restrictions, whereas tokenized stocks on Robinhood Chain (such as NVDA, AAPL, and others) achieve seamless 24/7 trading. When traditional US markets are closed and there are sudden positive macro news or tech giant breakthroughs, tokenized US stocks become the only place globally where capital can instantly hedge and speculate. LONG occupies 20% of the total TVL of all tokenized stocks on Robinhood Chain, yet it handles hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume, indicating that its market-making algorithms and deep pools are becoming the "forward pricing hub" for US stocks during non-trading hours. LONG's breakout is not just a victory for an individual protocol but a "dimensionality reduction strike" by decentralized finance (DeFi) against traditional brokerage models. Once tokenized stocks have the standard attributes of ERC-20, they can be directly integrated into on-chain lending, synthetic assets, and automated strategies. For traders, this marks the complete blurring of boundaries between the crypto market and traditional US stocks. Keep an eye on OKX Reasons for OKX Delisting CORE On-Chain Earning (Staking) Feature
Risk Warning: Virtual currencies are not protected by domestic laws. The following is only an industry information review and does not constitute investment advice.
The exchange has not issued a long qualitative announcement specifically for CORE. Based on industry rules, product mechanisms, and community information, there are four layers of real reasons:
1. Protocol-level risks: CORE staking has a long unlocking period and high technical uncertainty
CORE on-chain staking has an unlocking waiting period; after delegating staking, immediate redemption is not possible. In case of mainnet upgrades, validator failures, or protocol bugs, the exchange cannot quickly retrieve user assets.
On-chain earning means the exchange delegates staking on the public chain on behalf of users. If the network encounters anomalies, the exchange must bear the redemption pressure from users. Core DAO’s early validator reward mechanism had abnormal incidents, amplifying platform risk control concerns.
Note: This does not mean CORE is worthless; the exchange simply no longer provides the staking entry. Users can still withdraw tokens to the official wallet and stake on-chain themselves.
2. Exchange’s overall strategy contraction for on-chain earning products
OKX is not only delisting CORE but also gradually discontinuing on-chain staking products for multiple public chains (Avalanche, OKT, etc.).
Overseas regulations (such as EU MiCA) impose increasingly strict compliance requirements on centralized platforms proxying DeFi staking: platforms must bear compliance responsibility for risks, returns, and lock-up consequences of staking. Many exchanges proactively reduce third-party public chain delegated staking services to lessen compliance burdens.
The on-chain earning protocol itself allows platforms to pause or remove staking products at any time, as stated in the user agreement.
3. Mismatch between returns and operational costs
- CORE staking rewards come from block inflation rewards, which fluctuate greatly; inflation release schedules may change;
- The exchange must maintain nodes, collect rewards, pay on-chain gas fees, and manage user redemption scheduling;
- If the token price continues to bottom out, staking returns become less attractive, the platform bears technical and redemption risks, but the commercial value generated is limited, so the product is prioritized for removal.
4. Clarification of market misconceptions
❌ Misconception 1: Delisting earning = delisting CORE trading
→ Incorrect, only the "on-chain earning/staking financial product" is delisted; spot trading and deposits/withdrawals remain normal.
❌ Misconception 2: The project had a major security breach and ran away
→ No official announcement disclosing major security incidents; the mainnet is operating normally.
❌ Misconception 3: The exchange is bearish on this project
→ Delisting financial products ≠ denying the token narrative; financial products are independent and have separate review logic from token listing.
Practical tips for users
1. For CORE already in on-chain earning: the exchange will execute redemption and return funds to the account; pay attention to platform redemption cycle notifications;
2. For those who still want to participate in CORE staking: withdraw CORE from the exchange to the official Core wallet and delegate stake directly on the Core DAO official website, bearing lock-up and network risks yourself;
3. Distinguish between exchange-custodied staking vs. user self-custodied on-chain staking; the risks are completely different.Total supply of 2.1 billion challenged? CORE's "8.31" incident embroiled in "token inflation" controversy
Circulating opinions online:
"$CORE is a shocking scam, the project team staged a play that was exposed, the protocol code was changed on the 31st, the circulating supply surged, which equals token inflation. There were traces on Twitter long ago, the protocol was modified a week earlier, the project team deliberately concealed it; official tweets repeatedly emphasized the total supply of 2.1 billion two weeks ago, which is like hiding something obvious."
I. Confirmed objective facts
1. Official announcement on August 31: a protocol reward logic bug occurred, a small number of validators received block rewards exceeding protocol rules, user assets and network security were not compromised.
- It was not the project team manually modifying contract permissions in the backend; it was a consensus-layer reward calculation logic flaw; it was not unlimited arbitrary inflation, but an abnormal mining reward issuance.
- Coinbase suspended deposits and withdrawals, LBank suspended deposits, these were risk responses by exchanges, not due to asset theft.
- The official promised to release a full incident review report afterward, but has yet to disclose the exact amount of excess issuance, whether the excess tokens will be reclaimed or burned, which remains the biggest controversy in the community.
2. CORE's maximum cap is fixed at 2.1 billion tokens, released gradually over an 81-year cycle; the controversy over this bug is whether it released future mining rewards prematurely or minted extra tokens exceeding the 2.1 billion cap. On-chain data has not yet conclusively determined this.
3. The official repeatedly emphasized the total token supply of 2.1 billion in previous tweets as routine tokenomics education, but did not warn about this technical vulnerability a week before the bug surfaced, which is a key point of community suspicion.
II. Which online claims are speculation and which cannot be verified
❌ Online claim: The project team knew about the protocol tampering a week ago, staged the incident, and only pretended to expose it on the 31st.
This is community speculation without on-chain evidence or official internal leaks. Blockchain protocol bugs can be triggered only under specific block height conditions; the code may have latent risks but not immediately manifest, and the team may not have reproduced the issue in advance.
⚠️ Key distinction:
1. Malicious manual contract inflation by the project team (scam): the team uses admin privileges to mint new tokens directly, which is fraudulent.
2. Protocol code bug causing reward overflow: a logic defect causing reward miscalculation, a technical accident, but still impacts supply and harms token holders.
The official classifies this incident as the second type, but because the exact amount of excess tokens and handling plans have not been disclosed, many investors suspect it is effectively disguised manual inflation, causing major disagreement.
III. Real impact on token holders
1. Existing CORE balances held in exchanges and wallets have not been tampered with; assets will not be wiped out directly.
2. The risk lies in: if a large amount of excess tokens enter the market circulation, it will create huge selling pressure and suppress the token price; if the team does not burn or roll back the excess tokens, the tokenomics credibility will be severely damaged.
3. Some exchanges have already placed CORE on watchlists, with potential delisting risks.
IV. Three key signals ordinary participants should track
1. Official full incident review report disclosing how many excess CORE tokens were produced;
2. Handling plan for overflow tokens: reclaim, burn, or allow market circulation;
3. Subsequent deposit, withdrawal, and trading policy changes for CORE by major exchanges.
Summary: The confirmed fact is an abnormal protocol reward incident, but the community speculation that "the project team knew in advance and staged a scam" lacks conclusive evidence; regardless of intent, the abnormal token supply is a very serious trust crisis for the project.$CORE core coin latest real news
1. Latest market status (as of September 1, 2026)
CORE real-time price is about $0.0214, 24-hour decline about 5%, 24-hour trading volume about 6.38 million USD, circulating market cap about 31.79 million USD, ranked beyond 600th in global cryptocurrency market cap; historical highest price exceeded $6, currently in a deep downtrend. Total token supply is 2.1 billion, circulating supply about 1.49 billion, circulation rate about 71%.
2. Official major events (latest on August 31)
Core DAO official disclosed: a small number of network validator nodes experienced a bug causing abnormal block reward distribution, some validators received token rewards exceeding protocol design. The official clarified:
The issue only exists in the validator reward distribution process; user assets, wallet holdings, and fund security are completely unaffected, no security vulnerabilities, no theft risk;
The team has identified the root cause and is implementing a fix and mitigation plan, a full incident review report will be released later;
This is an abnormality in the protocol issuance mechanism, not a hacker attack.
3. Recent ecosystem updates
The mainnet completed the Hermes hard fork in November 2025, reducing transaction finality time to 6 seconds, optimizing node operation and staking functions;
European digital asset firm BTCS announced inclusion of CORE into treasury assets; the London Stock Exchange launched a Bitcoin staking ETP product based on the Core network;
Currently, multiple leading institutions and staking service providers have joined Core's BTC staking ecosystem. 1. Reasons for the sharp drop: triple blows, none avoided
First blow: US-Iran conflict ignites, oil prices soar. On September 1, the US military launched airstrikes on Iran's Larak Island and other locations, with Iran retaliating using missiles and drones. Brent crude surged 4.6% to $94.65 per barrel, WTI crude rose 5.2% to $90.22 per barrel. The spike in oil prices directly pushed up inflation expectations.
Second blow: Powell turns hawkish, rate hike probability surges. On August 31, Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, emphasizing that inflation remains elevated. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 66.4%.
Third blow: ETF funds reverse. Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows totaling $924 million over nine consecutive days but then turned to a single-day net outflow of $202 million.
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.75%, the highest since January 2025. The Nasdaq fell 0.5%, wiping out approximately $450 billion in market value.$HYPE's strength really has its reasons.
Data from Allium shows that cryptocurrency buybacks reached $638 million this year, far exceeding the same period last year.
As of August, Hyperliquid leads with about $370 million in buybacks, followed closely by $PUMP with $200 million.
This means the two projects alone account for 90%, while the remaining N projects share less than $100 million.
This is the core issue: buybacks are a strategy borrowed from the stock market, and for it to work, there is a premise: you really have to be making money.
Hyperliquid earns fees from perpetual contracts, and $PUMP takes commissions from token issuance—both are businesses with real cash flow coming in.
Most projects don’t have this premise, so what do they use to buy back?
Using tokens issued from their own treasury to exchange for U isn’t a buyback; that’s just moving money from one hand to the other.🫡Still waiting for interest rate cuts? Global rate tightening is the real big shackle!
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
If you're still fantasizing that rate cuts will revive the crypto market, stop staring at the K-line and self-hypnotizing. Eurozone inflation rebounded to 3.3% in August, with the market basically pricing in a 25BP rate hike by the ECB in September; Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit a 30-year high, and the US 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.75%.
The funding costs in major global markets are collectively rising, this is the gravitational force pressing down on risk assets, and $BTC cannot remain unaffected.
I don't think the market will crash immediately, but in a continuously tightening rate environment, chasing highs for long positions has a poor risk-reward ratio. Operationally, I lean towards a bearish approach but refuse to blindly short naked. There's no need to subjectively imagine easing is coming; patiently waiting for real macro signals of loosening before acting is much more reliable than blindly betting on the market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The Southern District Federal Court of New York issued a ruling dismissing the securities charges related to that Meme coin issuance platform. The market immediately cheered—"Meme coins are not securities, the sector wins." Honestly, when I first saw this news, I almost got happy too. But after staring at the repeated reasoning in the ruling for a while, I felt a chill down my spine. The court determined that these tokens do not meet the "common enterprise" requirement in the Howey Test. At first, this sounds like good news, but if translated into plain language, it actually means: these Meme coins don’t even qualify as "a group of people coming together to do something." They weren’t cleared; they were downgraded. If we replace the subject from "Meme coins" to the "hands" singled out separately in the ruling, the whole narrative changes. The court actually did one thing: it separated the tokens from the operators. The tokens don’t meet the common enterprise, so they’re not securities and are let go; the operating company and its three founders, however, face RICO fraud and unlicensed money transmission charges, which continue to move forward into discovery. Can this be called letting them off? This clearly shifts the focus from "what the coin is" to "what the people did." What is RICO? It is the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, originally used to combat the Mafia. It fundamentally doesn’t care whether "what you sold is compliant or not," but rather "whether you are an organized group committing fraud." While dismissing the securities charges, the court lets the RICO case proceed, with the subtext being as clear as day: "I’m not going to argue with you now about whether what you sold counts as securities; I want to first investigate whether you areWash firmly stated at Jackson Hole: 2% is a “firm, fixed” target, price stability won’t return on its own; financial conditions can’t be said to be clearly restrictive either. The July rate decision was already a 9-to-3 hold, with three votes directly advocating a rate hike.
On the employment side, cooling is no longer just a narrative, it’s in the numbers. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 23,000, May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000, and the three-month average is only about 20,000.
The mid-year benchmark revision initial value was cut by another 79,000, far worse than the market’s expected upward revision of 183,000. The unemployment rate still looks like 4.1%, but labor force participation is falling; the “frozen” state of low hiring and low layoffs is cooler than it appears on the surface.
On inflation, the narrative is completely reversed. PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, and the annualized rate over the past six months is 4.1%, still close to twice the target.
That’s why the current picture emerges: employment is leaving the door open for a pause or even dovish turn, while the Chair and inflation are opening the door for a September rate hike. CME pricing has already raised the probability of a 25 basis point hike on September 15–16 to just over 60%, roughly double what it was before Wash’s speech.
Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report is the last complete employment report before the rate decision. The consensus is roughly an increase of 53,000–58,000, unemployment steady at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings up about 0.3% month-over-month. This number itself is not strong—roughly just enough to keep labor supply steady.
What really determines pricing is the combination: whether employment weakens further, whether previous values continue to be revised down, and whether wages start to rise again.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The leader has something to say
Strategy bought 4,603 BTC last week, with a total holding of 845,100 BTC. BitMine holds 5,901,100 ETH, with a staking ratio of 86%, generating an annualized staking income of about $335 million.
The scale of coin purchases is expanding, but the bigger variable lies in index eligibility. MSCI is advancing a rule adjustment regarding the index eligibility of "non-operating companies." If implemented, treasury companies like Strategy that rely on financing to buy coins may be removed from the MSCI Global Investable Market Index. Removal means passive funds from index funds will withdraw, and financing capabilities will be discounted.
Strategy is opposing this proposal, but the rule's direction is not up to them.
The market is reassessing the core of the crypto treasury model. The scale of coin purchases is the appearance; index eligibility and financing capability are the substance. If index eligibility is blocked, no matter how many coins are bought, the premium given by the market will be discounted.
ZEC short positions continue holding $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; stop-loss orders must be set on positions. Good luck.ISM fell short of expectations, but I’m actually more confident to buy now
The US August ISM Manufacturing index was 54.6, below the expected 55.2 and previous 55.6. The market sees this as negative, but my judgment is positive.
It has been above 50 for five consecutive months, so manufacturing is still expanding, just at a slower pace. Pricing was previously too optimistic; the pullback actually eases inflation concerns and reduces the urgency for the Fed to continue tightening. The PMI gives Besent more leverage—the reasons to maintain high interest rates are diminishing.
The macro pressures weighing on crypto (Japan rate hikes, high yields, strong dollar) are starting to loosen. BTC’s correlation with gold has surged to a historic high, with institutions treating digital gold as a hedge against depreciation. Once macro pressure eases, capital will flow back quickly.
The panic selling before Japan’s rate hike remains a short-term risk, but the ISM points to a higher probability of a soft landing. The Fed has no reason to tighten further, and the liquidity turning point is closer than expected.
Action: Build positions in batches when it pulls back below 75,000; don’t be scared off by panic. ISM itself isn’t important; what matters is the signal behind it—tightening is nearing its end, and easing is on the way. $BTC $ETH $XAU
#Employment data intensive release, Wash’s policy stance under scrutiny
#US Treasury Secretary Besent talks with Japan, forex and rate hikes in focus
#Besent plans to ease bank credit, high interest rate pressure to be resolved 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.27%, returning to the level before Bessent announced the repo expansion on August 19.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield breaks 3% for the first time in 30 years.
UK 30-year government bond yield at 5.87%, highest since 1998.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield at 3.34%, highest since 2011.
Oil prices have risen 13% in the past month, with Brent surging above $94.
Bloomberg Global Sovereign Bond Index yield hits a nearly 20-year high.
In plain terms: borrowing costs worldwide are getting more expensive. Yet your BTC position is still stuck at 78,000.
What's the current situation with BTC?
In August, it rose 24%-25%, marking the strongest August performance since 2017. It once broke through $80,000, testing the $81,000-$82,000 resistance zone.
Then what? After a hawkish speech by Waller at Jackson Hole, BTC directly dropped below 78,000.
Now the price is fluctuating repeatedly between 77,000 and 79,000. The 24-hour volatility range has been compressed to $77,200-$79,200.
After a 25% rise, the market is waiting for direction. But the news coming is not good.
At the macro level, triple pressure is hitting simultaneously.
First, global sovereign bonds are crashing in sync.
After Bessent announced repo expansion on August 19, the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly fell. In less than two weeks, it returned fully to 5.27%.
Bank of America’s head of rates strategy Mark Cabana bluntly said: "The rate market can never sustain any decent yield decline; investors demand higher compensation to extend maturities."
Pantera founder Dan Morehead was even harsher: "Bluffing only works if no one at the table knows you’re bluffing."
Second, oil prices have gone crazy.
US-Iran tensions escalated again, oil prices jumped over 5% in a single day, Brent neared $95. Diesel futures surged 51% in the past 10 weeks.
Every cent increase in oil prices adds fuel to the inflation fire.
Third, global central banks are collectively pivoting.
European Central Bank has a 98.9% chance of a rate hike on September 10.
Bank of Japan has an 88% chance of a rate hike on September 18.
Federal Reserve has a 66.9% chance of a rate hike on September 15-16.
This is not the action of a single central bank. It’s a systemic rise in global financing costs.
Where is BTC stuck now?
On the upside: $82,000 is the first hurdle. BTC has tested $82,000 multiple times recently, each time getting pushed down.
Above that: $83,000-$86,000 is a dense resistance zone, gathering short liquidations, long-term holder supply, and order book sell orders — triple resistance.
On the downside: $75,000 is the first defense line, $72,000 is a deeper bottom.
Wintermute defines $75,000 and $82,000 as two key price points before the September FOMC.
Right now, BTC is grinding within this range. Whoever breaks first wins.
Three scenarios — how should you respond?
Scenario 1: Fed rate hike + hawkish tone (highest probability)
Rate hike happens, but Waller hints "this is just the beginning." BTC will likely test $72,000-$75,000.
What to do: Don’t rush to bottom-fish. Wait for price stabilization and tone digestion. If it really reaches this level, it’s a mid-to-long-term entry zone.
Scenario 2: Fed rate hike + dovish guidance (medium probability)
"One hike, then data-dependent" — the market will interpret this as the worst being over. A phase bottom may form here.
What to do: Watch Waller’s wording closely. If he says "data-dependent" instead of "continued tightening," the market will find its bottom on its own.
Scenario 3: Unexpected no rate hike (low probability, biggest surprise)
CME prices in a 66.9% chance of a hike. If the Fed deviates from the script, this is the biggest surprise.
BTC could directly break through $82,000 and even challenge the dense resistance zone at $86,000.
What to do: Don’t chase this move. Expectation gap trades are best positioned before the announcement; chasing after usually means catching the falling knife.
Some key indicators to watch.
Spot ETF fund flows: From August 24-28, 9 consecutive days of net inflows totaling $924 million. On August 28, first outflow of $202 million. On September 1, inflow returned at $216.7 million.
Institutions haven’t fled. They’re shuffling back and forth, waiting for direction.
Open interest: Dropped to the lowest since May. This shows August’s rally was driven by spot, not leverage. The structure looks healthier than it seems.
Friday’s employment data: The last key data before FOMC. Strong data → confirms hike → BTC may test $75,000. Weak data → lowers hike probability → BTC may surge to $80,000.
September 9: Bessent’s repo expansion officially takes effect. But the market has already voted with its feet — no one believes this will save the day.
How to manage your position?
First, reduce leverage. Don’t bet heavily on direction before FOMC. Current implied volatility can wipe you out in one move.
Second, build positions in batches. If it really reaches $72,000-$75,000, it’s a mid-to-long-term entry zone. Don’t go all in at once; split into three batches.
Third, watch ETF fund flows. When institutions have continuous net inflows, don’t fight the market. When continuous outflows occur, don’t fantasize "this time is different."
Fourth, control your hands before Friday’s employment data. This is the last binary event before FOMC. Move after data release; missing a day or two won’t hurt.
BTC rose 25% in August, but did you make money?
If you chased at 78,000, didn’t sell at 81,000, and now are hesitating "to cut or not" — you’re not alone.
But September may be one of the most volatile months this year.
Global bond markets are crashing, oil prices are soaring, and three central banks are hiking simultaneously.
Survival is more important than profit.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 # Robinhood Chain DEX Daily Trading Volume Hits $1.595 Billion
Robinhood Chain's 24-hour DEX trading volume rose from $989 million on August 28 to $1.595 billion on September 1, an increase of 61%. As of September 1, DeFi TVL stands at $738.11 million, with stablecoin market capitalization around $797 million; Bridged TVL is approximately $2.524 billion, but it includes multiple asset types and is not measured on the same basis as DeFi TVL. Trading volume represents flow, while TVL represents stock.
Robinhood is designed to support around-the-clock Stock Tokens trading, allowing users to deploy them into lending pools or use them as collateral. Stock Tokens are tokenized debt securities that provide economic exposure to stocks or ETFs without granting ownership of the underlying securities. Early activity was largely driven by meme coins, so this trading volume should not be equated with genuine stock demand; what needs to be observed is whether liquidity can translate into stable usage.
#Robinhood #OnChainTradingTVL Breakdown: Distinguishing "Native Token Lock-up" from "Stablecoin-Stacked Lock-up"
Many people judge public chains and DeFi tokens directly by total TVL, but there is a huge trap here. Within total TVL, a large portion consists of stablecoins like USDT and USDC, not the project's native tokens.
$SOL: According to DefiLlama data, the proportion of native token staking is steadily increasing, stablecoin proportion is reasonable, and the TVL rise is driven by genuine ecosystem activity, indicating sustainability.
$ZEC: The DeFi ecosystem itself is weak, with a very low TVL base; the increase relies entirely on contract holdings, with almost no lock-up ecosystem support.
$ENA: TVL scale is small, a large part comes from stablecoin deposits, native token staking proportion is not high, mostly speculative expectations.
$DOGE: Almost no DeFi lock-up ecosystem, TVL reference value is zero.
Total TVL is just a number; the structure must be examined. TVL stacked by stablecoins does not represent token demand; only native token participation in lock-up reflects market recognition of the token itself.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 🔥Solana has transformed from a "meme chain" to an "institutional chain," but the hundred-dollar mark still scares $SOL holders
In August, SOL surged from a low to around 110, rising about 46% for the month, ending a previous streak of 10 consecutive months of monthly declines; but once September started, it swung back to 99–103. Many are confused: Isn't the ETF breaking records? Didn't Schwab open accounts for tens of millions? So why is holding at the hundred-dollar level still so exhausting?
Actually, SOL is currently being pulled by three forces simultaneously:
1) Institutional base holdings: ETF + brokerages + staking, real money is flowing in
The US spot SOL ETF had a cumulative net inflow of about 1.34 billion by the end of August, with AUM around 1.49 billion. BSOL alone accounts for 77%–80% of the entire category, holding about 9.3 million SOL, breaking 1 billion AUM. Goldman disclosed holdings of about 88.1 million; Schwab has integrated spot SOL into about 39 million accounts, meaning retail investors can buy coins without managing wallets themselves. Plus, BSOL is a staking product, so institutions holding SOL are not just "arbitraging price differences," they also earn staking rewards — this is completely different from pure meme coins.
2) Technical narrative: Firedancer + Alpenglow + governance
Solana is promoting an "on-chain Nasdaq": Firedancer enhances client diversity, Alpenglow improves confirmation and finality, SGP-0002 increases the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, passing governance with 67% approval. $SOL That jump in August involved at least two real-money transactions: the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw about $3.3–3.5 billion inflow, marking the strongest month in nearly ten months; the other was shorts being squeezed, pushing the price up. So it wasn't just pure air. But on August 28, there was an outflow of about $200 million, breaking a 9-day inflow streak, indicating that those supporting the rally started to take a break, and not everyone was ready to keep adding above 80,000 $SKHY
The positive news for Hynix has mostly been priced in by now. The AI storage and HBM high demand that everyone has been hyping have long been anticipated by the market, and there are no new major positive catalysts to continue supporting the stock price.
Moreover, Samsung is aggressively capturing market share in storage, which will impact Hynix's future profits and bargaining power, making it difficult for the stock to have an unexpected upward momentum.
Additionally, the entire storage sector has weakened, foreign capital is quietly withdrawing at high levels, and US storage stocks are falling in sync. Hynix tends to follow the trend and is unlikely to have an independent rally. Currently, the stock price rebound lacks volume support, and the bulls have no strength to push it up.
Overall, the space above 160 is limited and faces heavy resistance, while there is ample room for a pullback below. The risk-reward ratio for shorting is very favorable. As long as it cannot break through the high-level range, a new round of decline could come at any time.Is Wall Street about to take over the crypto space? SEC announces: U.S. stocks will also play "24-hour" trading!
Daytime trading A-shares, nighttime trading U.S. stocks, late-night trading crypto? Sorry, your sleep time might soon be completely taken away by Wall Street.
Just today, the U.S. SEC officially released the agenda for the "24-hour trading" roundtable. Robinhood, NYSE, BlackRock, Citadel Securities all showed up. This is not a drill; this is a full-scale assault by traditional financial giants on the 7x24-hour financial world.
My view is straightforward:
This is short-term bearish for crypto but an epic long-term bullish signal. In the short term, extending U.S. stock trading hours will inevitably divert some "night owl" funds, narrowing crypto's "time moat." But thinking deeper, if Wall Street wants to play 24 hours, will they still rely on the old and broken T+2 clearing system? Impossible. They must rely on blockchain and embrace tokenization. When NYSE stocks can settle instantly on-chain, and BlackRock's funds become RWA, that will mark the beginning of trillions of dollars flowing into the crypto world.
Traditional finance is transforming itself with crypto magic, which is the greatest recognition for us.
Do you think in the future U.S. stocks will crush crypto, or crypto will assimilate U.S. stocks? Share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Intensified bull-bear battles, whales reduce holdings against the trend, BTC bottom-fishing window opens? September 2 BTC Market Panorama: Bulls Cleaned Out, Supply Shifting from Weak to Strong On September 2, the Bitcoin market experienced intense volatility. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $103.7 million, with long positions accounting for 85.5% ($88.68 million) and short positions only 15% ($15.03 million). The highest single liquidation was nearly $3 million ($2,988,483), indicating that highly leveraged long positions have been hit hard amid volatility. On the 1st of this month, net liquidations reached $315 million, with BTC fluctuating over 3.59% in a single day and 9,233 people being liquidated. The market is currently in a "shakeout" phase. Despite price pressure, the moves of major institutions hint at medium- to long-term strategic directions. MicroStrategy's discounted holdings: capital "clearing cages for birds" As the publicly traded company holding the most Bitcoin, MicroStrategy's operations are interpreted as market barometers. On August 10 and August 3, it reduced holdings of 1,690 BTC and 1,638 BTC respectively, with an average cost above $64,000, well below the historical average price of $75,000. This discount reduction at low prices appears to be abandoning the "never sell" stance, but is more about repurchasing preferred shares to replenish US dollar reserves, reflecting cash flow management pressures. Currently, MicroStrategy still holds 840,449 BTC, accounting for about 6.7% of circulating supply. Institutions have not left and have quietly begun to replenish their holdingsWhat exactly happened last night?
The US-Iran conflict escalated again, Brent crude oil surged to $95, and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.81%, hitting a nearly three-year high.
More importantly, the market's probability expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen from 39.6% a week ago to about 67%.
The rise in oil prices means inflationary pressures may resurface.
When inflation rises, the Fed finds it harder to ease; US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, naturally suppressing valuations of risk assets.
So last night it wasn’t just the crypto market that fell.
The Nasdaq dropped about 1%, and Asian stock markets also saw a significant pullback. Reuters global market report
What might the main players be doing?
My understanding is: funds are reducing risk but have not fully exited the crypto space.
On August 31, the US spot BTC ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $217 million; however, the preliminary data for the ETH ETF on September 1 has already turned to a slight net outflow.
This indicates institutional funds have not completely withdrawn, but buying interest has started to waver. CoinDesk market update｜Farside ETH ETF data
At the same time, BTC’s market dominance rose to 57.6%, showing that when the market is under pressure, funds prefer to stay in Bitcoin rather than blindly rush into altcoins.
But the hotspots have not completely disappeared.
ARB surged about 30% last night because Robinhood Chain’s single-day revenue hit a new high of about $1.9 million.
This shows it’s not a full bull market now, but a very clear local rotation: the large caps are on defense, while a few altcoins with news catalysts are performing.
Three common traps retail investors are most likely to fall into today:
First, immediately going all-in to buy the dip when BTC falls.
What’s affecting the market now isn’t just one candlestick, but oil prices, interest rates, and the dollar. If macro pressures don’t ease, the first rebound may not be a reversal.
Second, chasing ARB after it has risen 30%.
The current altcoin market is more event-driven; chasing at the peak often becomes liquidity for earlier funds to exit.
Third, using high leverage to bet on BTC quickly reclaiming $80,000.
The $76,450–79,200 range remains a wide consolidation zone; before direction is confirmed, high leverage is most vulnerable to repeated stop hunts and losses.
What to focus on today?
BTC:
$76,450 is the short-term support level
Only a return above $78,000 counts as a halt to the decline and recovery
Breaking through $79,200–80,000 is needed to discuss a renewed uptrend
If it falls below $76,450, watch out for support near $75,000
ETH:
$2,385 is short-term support
$2,485–2,500 remains the main resistance
If it breaks below $2,385, it may continue to seek support at $2,350 or even $2,300
What really needs watching today isn’t just the candlesticks.
Also watch whether oil prices continue to surge, if US Treasury yields can fall back, and whether there is genuine active buying after BTC’s drop.
This round of decline may include some shakeout, but macro pressures are real.POL: The trend is weak and volatile, indicating that the market remains quite selective about the valuation of the L2 sector. POL is supported by expectations of Polygon ecosystem upgrades, with the core focus on the progress of AggLayer, application growth, and whether institutional cooperation can translate into real on-chain usage. Currently, investors are reluctant to pay solely for technical narratives and are paying more attention to hard data such as trading volume, active addresses, and liquidity. If these indicators do not improve soon, POL may continue to experience a short-term pattern of repeated bottoming. $POL#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
Just finished browsing the Robinhood Chain on-chain dashboard, and I'm a bit stunned.
The head of Robinhood's crypto business said their strategy is to balance two wolves — traditional financial products + speculative tokens that attract active traders.
To translate: verbally they talk RWA, but in practice they honestly give Gas subsidies to Meme. Early Dune dashboards show 92.9% of active addresses have only touched Meme, less than 4% have touched stock tokens.
Bulls say: Meme is cold-start traffic, pairing crypto stocks with tokens like NVDA/TSLA/GME as the base pool, every Meme buy order conveniently creates demand for Stock Tokens, activating RWA, making the loop stronger than just launching a chain.
Bears say: this is a zoo in a suit, crypto stock premiums rely on market closures + thin pools to squeeze out premiums, which vanish once the real stock market opens; when Robinhood wallet Gas subsidies stopped at the end of September, real stock investors won't stay, leaving only another liquidity funeral.
My personal judgment:
Robinhood Chain is not about putting US stocks on-chain now, it's about putting US stock memes on-chain. How many real stock investors it can retain depends on whether DEX volume falls below 500 million after subsidies taper off at the end of September; if it falls, it's a narrative collapse like CASHCAT 2.0; if not, then Vlad really managed to feed both wolves.高盛、美银、花旗、德银、瑞银——21家国际大行，齐刷刷把发币时间定在了2027年上半年。消息一出，市场第一反应几乎是条件反射：“传统金融终于进场了，币圈大利好。” 但我盯着这条新闻看了挺久，越看越觉得，最别扭的地方不是“它们来了”，而是它们选的时间点，精确到让“竞争”这个词有点尴尬。 2026年下半年成立新公司，2027年上半年发币。而GENIUS法案，2027年1月中旬生效。 这哪是等监管清晰了再动手？分明是把发令枪和起跑线焊死在同一个位置上。 其实，如果主语是“21家银行”，这事很容易被讲成“传统巨头拥抱加密”的老套故事。可如果把主语换成那家计划在2026年下半年成立、到现在还没名字的新公司，味道就完全变了。 这家公司要做的事，并不是去和Tether抢用户。它更像是在规则生效的那一刻，稳稳站到合规赛道最靠前的位置上。 有个细节挺耐人寻味：GENIUS法案禁止稳定币支付利息。多数加密原生项目把这条看成限制，但银行系反而把这条当成了入场券。为什么？ 说白了，“禁止付息”就是一道过滤网。它先把那些靠高息揽储吸引用户的加密原生稳定币挡在门外，再把所有不愿接受“干净工具”这个定位的玩家也筛掉Japanese Government Bond Yield Breaks 3%: An "Arbitrage Bomb" About to Explode the Crypto Market
On September 1, Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit 3%.
This is the first time since 1996.
A year ago, this figure was 1.5%.
On the same day, Bitcoin fell below $77,000.
This is no coincidence.
On September 1, Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996—after exactly 30 years.
The 30-year yield is approaching the historical high of 4.205%, and the 2-year yield rose to a 31-year high of 1.795%.
When the Japanese government prepared the 2026 budget, it assumed a long-term interest rate of 3%. Now, that assumption has been broken.
A "ballast stone" that has suppressed global interest rates for 30 years is loosening.
What does this have to do with the crypto market?
A lot.
For decades, the yen has been the world's "cheapest money." Institutions borrow yen, buy dollars, and invest in high-yield assets—this is yen carry trade.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, the scale of offshore yen carry trades may reach as high as $500 billion.
How much of this $500 billion is in the crypto market? No one knows the exact number. But everyone knows—it's quite a lot.
We saw this scene in August 2024.
At that time, the Bank of Japan raised rates slightly, and the yen rose 6% within days, triggering a chain of carry trade liquidations.
What was the result? Bitcoin plunged from about $62,000 to $49,000, a 24% drop in one week.
The S&P 500 fell 6% in three days. Global risk assets were sold off together.
That time, the carry trade scale was "only" $250 billion.
Now, it has doubled.
And this time, the situation is worse.
In 2024, at least no one forced Japan to raise rates in advance.
What about this time?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly pressured the Bank of Japan at the G20 meeting, urging rate hikes and pushing for a stronger yen.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government also clearly signaled support for rate hikes for the first time.
Overnight index swaps show the market has priced in a 92% probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike on September 18, and the October hike is fully priced in.
Japan's current policy rate is 1%. The market expects it to rise to 1.25% on September 18 and possibly reach 2% by the end of 2027.
The U.S. policy rate is 3.5%-3.75%.
The arbitrage spread has shrunk from 250 basis points to 225 basis points—and is still narrowing.
Every basis point contraction causes leveraged positions to lose money. When losses reach a certain level, positions are liquidated. Liquidation means selling assets. Selling assets means market crashes.
What’s more painful—Bitcoin is still "pretending nothing is wrong."
On September 1, global sovereign bonds were sold off simultaneously; the U.S. 10-year yield surged to 4.78%, the U.K. 10-year hit 5.23%, and Germany's 30-year reached its highest since 2011.
Bitcoin? It was trading sideways between $77,000 and $78,000.
The market thinks it is "decoupling."
But every historical illusion of "decoupling" has ultimately proven to be the calm before the storm.
Goldman Sachs said something worth engraving on your trading software—
"Just a move in the exchange rate can completely wipe out the annualized returns of all positions."
The yen is now around 160 against the dollar.
160 is the red line for the last joint intervention by the Japanese government.
If the yen quickly pulls back from 160 to 150—not even to 140, just 150—how much of the $500 billion carry trade positions will trigger stop-losses?
No one knows. But the 6% rise from 162 to 156 in 2024 already caused Bitcoin to drop 24%.
This time, the scale has doubled, and the speed may be faster.
This is not to say that a Japanese rate hike will "definitely" cause a crash.
But before September 18, the leverage you hold is betting against a policy event with a 92% probability of happening.
The Fed's probability of a September rate hike has already soared to 66%, and Chair Powell just turned hawkish last week.
The two largest central banks in the world may tighten liquidity in the same week.
Can your long positions hold?
Bitcoin rose 25% in August, and the market was full of "bullish rebound speed."
But how much of the liquidity driving this rally was borrowed yen?
When "cheap money" is no longer cheap, all assets supported by cheap money must be repriced.
A 3% Japanese government bond yield is not just Japan's problem.
It is redefining the global risk-free rate—and all risk assets are being repriced based on this benchmark.
Japan's interest rate breaking 3% is not news.
It is an alarm.
Before September 18, deleverage, deleverage, deleverage.
Important things said three times.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 On September 2nd, Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762.
The global bond market is undergoing the most intense sell-off in nearly two decades. Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit 3% for the first time since 1996. The UK’s 30-year government bond yield reached its highest level since 1998. Germany’s 30-year government bond yield touched its highest since 2011. The Bloomberg Global Sovereign Bond Index yield climbed to its highest level in nearly twenty years.
In the US, the 30-year Treasury yield broke above 5.28% again, returning to the level before Treasury Secretary Becerra announced an expansion of the repo facility on August 19. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.8%, the highest since January 2025. The 2-year Treasury yield increased to 4.4%.
CME data shows the market has priced a 66.9% probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
The market is trading one thing: higher for longer. Rate hikes. Bond sell-offs. Risk assets under pressure.
But there is one thing almost nobody is paying attention to.
In early August, US Treasury Secretary Becerra publicly called on the Fed to expand the size and limits of the FIMA repo facility.
What is FIMA?
In plain terms: foreign governments can pledge their US Treasuries to the Fed to borrow dollars without having to sell those Treasuries on the open market.
Under current rules, the outstanding limit per single counterparty is $60 billion.
Becerra said: this limit needs to be raised. The Japanese Ministry of Finance also announced it is working with the US side to try to suppress the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Why has this been overlooked?
Because everyone is focused on rate hikes. No one cares about a "Fed emergency tool from the pandemic era."
But Arthur Hayes published an article on August 11 titled "Yen-quake" that explained this thoroughly.
Hayes’ logic is simple:
First, the yen is the most severely undervalued currency globally. The Bank of Japan raising rates is not a viable path—raising rates would trigger massive unwinding of global carry trades, replaying the market crash of August 2024.
Second, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) and Ministry of Finance hold over $1.37 trillion in US Treasuries that can be used as collateral.
Third, the most likely path is: the Japanese Ministry of Finance pledges US Treasuries to the Fed to get dollars, then uses those dollars to buy yen in the market.
This operation does not sell assets or cause market turmoil but has a side effect—the Fed’s balance sheet expands, and dollar liquidity surges.
Hayes’ exact words: "The more they print, the higher Bitcoin goes."
He calls FIMA the Fed’s "disguised money printing."
Note, this is not quantitative easing. FIMA repos are temporary and must be repaid. But temporary liquidity surges have the same effect on price-sensitive assets.
Hayes revealed that Maelstrom has already gone long on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ENA. But his "bullets" are not all fired yet.
What is he waiting for?
Waiting for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to convene a committee to revise FIMA rules.
The market is trading a September rate hike—66.9% probability, almost certain.
Bitcoin is falling, bonds are falling, risk assets are falling.
But smart money is positioning for something else.
Positioning for an outcome the market hasn’t priced in: debt problems are unsustainable, and the ultimate solution will be monetization.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield broke 3% for the first time in 30 years. The Japanese government has accumulated the world’s largest sovereign debt, previously relying on near-zero cost funding. That logic is now completely broken.
If Japan is forced to raise rates—global carry trades unwind, liquidity instantly dries up, and Bitcoin could fall even harder.
If Japan borrows dollars through FIMA to buy yen—the Fed’s balance sheet expands, dollar liquidity overflows, and Bitcoin, gold, and crypto assets all rise across the board.
Two paths. One is what the market is trading. The other is what the market hasn’t seen yet.
Becerra’s August 19 announcement to expand the US Treasury repo facility lasted less than two days. After a brief dip, the 30-year Treasury yield quickly returned to high levels.
Pantera founder Dan Morehead said: "Bluffing only works if no one at the table knows you’re bluffing."
Becerra’s "powerful toolbox" is seen by the market as just a delaying tactic.
The real toolbox is not in the Treasury but at the Fed.
Short term: rate hike expectations suppress risk assets. Bitcoin oscillates between $76,000 and $82,000. It already fell below $77,000 on September 2. September is historically Bitcoin’s weakest month. Don’t expect an easy breakout in the short term.
Medium to long term: the ultimate solution to the debt problem will be monetization.
Whether it’s FIMA, quantitative easing, or yield curve control—the outcome is the same: more dollars, higher BTC.
Hayes’ year-end target price is $125,000. Think that’s crazy? In 2020, when the Fed’s balance sheet expanded from $4.2 trillion to $8.9 trillion, Bitcoin rose from below $10,000 to $69,000.
History doesn’t simply repeat, but the rhythm is always similar.
The market is trading a September rate hike.
But smart money is positioning for the endgame of debt monetization.
Short term bearish, long term bullish—where do you stand?
Everyone is looking at the same table.
But the real cards are under the table.
FIMA is that overlooked card.
When it flips, you might already be too late.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC whales have already started preparing the narrative for the next bull market.
The SEC has gathered NYSE, Nasdaq, Cboe, DTCC, BlackRock, Robinhood, Jane Street, Citadel Securities, Schwab, UBS, and Citi at one table to specifically study 24-hour stock trading.
This matter is easily underestimated because it will directly converge with another narrative: stock tokenization.
Robinhood is working on on-chain stocks, Coinbase is integrating stocks into AI Agents, traditional exchanges are extending trading hours, and DTCC is revamping the clearing system.
You will find that everyone is ultimately moving in the same direction:
Turning U.S. stocks from assets that can only be traded when the New York market opens into financial products that flow globally 24/7 like Crypto.
What a bull market needs most is never just capital; it also needs a new story that everyone can understand.
AI has been talked about for years, and interest rate cuts have been over-discussed.
The next narrative that can truly bring retail investors back to the market easily might be:
Global assets trading 24/7 + stock tokenization + AI automated trading.
What Wall Street is doing now is essentially turning the casino doors into ones that never close. $ETH $UNI The SEC has pulled out and rewritten the transfer agent rules that hadn't been substantively updated for over forty years, directly incorporating blockchain into securities issuance and share transfers. However, $ONDO actually dropped about 1.9%, with its price hovering near the 24-hour low.
This proposal addresses a very old issue: the U.S. transfer agent rules were established from the late 1970s to early 1980s and have not been substantively updated since. The SEC now explicitly aims to handle electronic records, blockchain, and tokenized securities.
More specific signals come from SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce. She directly questioned whether, after securities are put on-chain, holders can be identified by email or digital wallet addresses. Regulatory discussions have now moved to how on-chain securities should operate.
But don't rush to equate this news with a positive for ONDO. The proposal does not name ONDO, and there is still a 60-day comment period after publication in the Federal Register. Ondo submitted another request to the SEC in April, seeking to use the Ethereum mainnet to record tokenized securities rights, which shows it is indeed in this space, but there is still a gap between regulatory approval and token demand, involving actual issuance, trading volume, and revenue.
Currently, ONDO is priced around $0.3388, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $55.24 million and holdings valued at approximately $41.68 million. The news is out, but the price has yet to cast a vote of approval.In this crypto market cycle, what I most want to see is no longer whether $BTC can climb back above $80,000, but who is quietly starting to outperform BTC during its sideways movement. Today, BTC is around $77,000, ETH is around $2,420, and SOL has returned to around $100, indicating a clear cooling of the market overall. Interestingly, funds have not completely left the crypto market but are starting to change positions. Currently, there are three lines to watch: the first is XRP and SOL. Institutional funds have clearly spread in these two directions recently. If BTC continues to move sideways, they can remain relatively strong, indicating that risk appetite is expanding outward. The second is DeFi. If UNI, AAVE, CRV, LINK, PENDLE collectively outperform BTC, that would be true capital rotation. The third is high-beta assets. HYPE, SUI, ENA, ONDO, TAO—if these coins start to break out of their independent rally during BTC's $76,000-$78,000 range, it indicates the market is shifting from "buying BTC" to "seeking profits." So I won't rush to call for a full altcoin season right now. The real signal should be: BTC doesn't break below key support→ ETH starts to outperform BTC → SOL/XRP relay → DeFi spread→ high-beta altcoins finally explode. BTC is responsible for confirming the trend,$UNI has finally shown some movement these past two days, rising about 10% again in 24 hours, with the price back near $5.8. This surge has clearly outperformed BTC and most major coins.
I think this rise is not just a simple catch-up rally but a resonance of several factors.
First, Robinhood Chain's trading volume has exploded recently, with nearly $1 billion in DEX transactions in a single day, and Uniswap capturing most of that share. More importantly, tokenized stock trading on Uniswap is also growing rapidly, indicating it is truly tapping into the RWA incremental wave.
Second, UNI is finally more than just a “governance token.” Protocol fees have started flowing into a buyback and burn mechanism; the more Uniswap trades, the more UNI gets burned. The biggest issue before was that “Uniswap’s profits had nothing to do with UNI,” but now this logic is being corrected.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #Diverging data before nonfarm payrolls, September rate hike expectations heat up
I am Brother Ci. ISM and JOLTS were released together, but the market hasn't found a clear direction.
The August ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.6, lower than the previous 55.6 and below the expected 55.2. It is still above the expansion line, but momentum is indeed slowing. July JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, below the median estimate of 7.31 million, but slightly up from the revised 7.18 million in June. This data alone does not provide sufficient reason for a rate hike or pause, but the market's pricing for a September rate hike continues to rise.
The market-implied probability of a September rate hike has reached 66% to 66.9%, with the two-year Treasury yield holding around 4.36%. ISM and JOLTS are just warm-ups; the real judge will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls. July nonfarm payrolls were down 23,000, with May and June revised down by a total of 103,000. If August data continues to weaken, rate hike expectations may be extinguished. If the rebound exceeds expectations, Wash's hawkish stance will have data support, and the probability of a September rate hike may further increase.
BTC is fluctuating around 77,500, overall under pressure. ISM is still expanding, JOLTS hasn't collapsed, the job market is cooling but not collapsing; this combination is the most uncomfortable state for rate hike expectations. Don't bet on the data; wait for the nonfarm payrolls to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. $BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin was still hovering around 78,000, but the September wind had already changed. In August, the crypto market had just delivered its best monthly report card of the year, and now September is opening, the scene shifts to another scenario—oil prices are climbing, US Treasury yields are climbing, and the market is seriously pricing in the Fed's possible rate hikes in September. The dark cloud over risk assets is visibly pressing down. But here's the interesting part: money is still pouring into the crypto world. On the last day of August, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $216.7 million, and Ethereum ETFs have seen positive inflows for 11 consecutive trading days. Even institutional products like XRP and Solana are being snatched up. On one side, macros are calling for calm; on the other, institutions are quietly stockpiling. This kind of signal battle is the most important thing to watch right now. My perspective is this: whether Bitcoin can hold the 77,000 level depends on whether this recovery structure can survive. If it can decisively reclaim the 80,000 level, the late August high will be back within range. On Ethereum's side, ETFs' ability to attract funds has become the strongest institutional beacon after Bitcoin. Solana continues to be favored by capital, indicating that money is spilling out from the two giants. Although XRP's price is being held back by macros, demand on the ETF side has not stopped at all. BNB remains the major capital hub; once the overall trend warms up, it will be among the first to sense the temperature. Looking deeper, signs of L1 rotation are already showing signs of change. SUI is the relatively strong stock I am monitoringI've been telling you to stay out and wait for the signal these past two weeks. Today, I'll make it clear: the signal has arrived. Global central banks are hawkish in unison, interest rates have hit new highs for the year, and oil prices have risen three times in a row, reigniting inflation expectations—the gravitational pull on risk assets is getting heavier. The $BTC short squeeze that forced shorts to cover has basically cleaned out the shorts, and daily momentum is starting to turn down from overbought. At times like this, I no longer just wait; I dare to bet based on the structure. But remember an old saying at the table: betting doesn't mean going all in; position size, stop loss, and exit plan are all essential. Being a so-called 'short god' isn't about shouting 'short' every day; it's about waiting until the odds truly favor you before firing your bullets. Do you think this move is a pullback or a real trend reversal? #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注
The MSCI rebalancing has officially taken effect, with SanDisk being the largest new addition to the MSCI World Index this time. Passive funds concentrated their entry during the closing phase, causing a surge in trading volume at the end of the session and a short-term price spike exceeding 5.5%.
Inclusion in the index is merely a catalyst at the capital level and does not change the fundamentals. Institutional fund allocation improves liquidity, but after the short-term impulse rally, the focus remains on NAND flash prices and the realization of real AI storage demand.
$BTC and $ETH have no direct linkage; the overall market still follows Federal Reserve liquidity.
Storage concept cryptocurrencies are driven only by sentiment and have no substantive business connection.
It is important to distinguish between index fund-driven momentum and industry fundamental benefits. Do not mistake the rebalancing-driven price rise for a new boom in prosperity. Going forward, focus on NAND supply and demand and capital expenditure plans.
$SNDK
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Employment data hasn't been released yet, but the market has already started to bet on the direction in advance.
The most common mistake these days is equating "weaker employment" directly with "lower rate hike expectations."
The situation isn't that simple now. Wash has made it very clear: inflation hasn't returned to target, and the financial environment isn't noticeably tight. This week, employment data will be released consecutively. What truly impacts BTC is not just the employment numbers themselves, but whether the market will revise its September rate expectations accordingly.
If employment cools significantly, the market will of course trade easing expectations again, and BTC might have a chance to test 80,000; but if the data only worsens slightly without convincing the market that the economy is clearly weakening, rate hike expectations may not disappear immediately.
So what I’m most focused on now isn’t whether a single data point is high or low, but how BTC reacts after the data comes out.
If bad news comes out and the price doesn’t drop, it means someone is buying; if good news comes out and the price doesn’t rise, that’s even more dangerous.
Right now, BTC is hovering around 77,000, and ETH is also grinding near 2,400. The biggest risk at this level is betting on the wrong direction too early, and getting caught on both sides once the data is released.
Before the nonfarm payrolls, I’d rather make fewer trades than fully load my position just to guess a number.
What’s really worth doing is waiting for the market to give the answer, not writing the answer for the market in advance. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK finally saw a relief from the lock-up near 1600!!!
Before the market opened, there was a clear bullish expectation for AI storage, plus SanDisk was previously included in the MSCI USA Standard Index, causing the price to rise temporarily!
On September 1st, oil prices surged and US Treasury yields rose, leading to a noticeable decline in overall risk appetite in the US stock market that day. So when the market hit a high, profit-taking and lock-up positions were quickly and heavily realized, causing a waterfall drop.
Therefore, this movement can be fully understood as positive news stimulating institutional investors to scramble for chips, profit-taking at highs, collective pressure on the AI semiconductor sector, resulting in SanDisk's rise and fall.Last night, my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. When the screen was full of green, I sighed at $UNI UNI, but at dawn it climbed back up on its own and even accelerated.
When I opened the market this morning, funds quietly entered, and the horizontal consolidation line at the bottom held firm. I've seen this kind of structure many times, which directly signals to go long. Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking; when it's time to act, don't hesitate.
At the position of 4.663, now at 6.002, a +1437.91% gain realized. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying. This profit feels good, brothers; my assessment is: the rhythm was just right.
I arranged my position simply: first close 70%, keep the remaining 30% at cost as protection; if it surges, keep holding, if it falls back, don't give back the profits. Don't let profits inflate, don't despair over pullbacks.
The next move is on the way; now is not the time to chase. I'll call out as soon as the structure becomes clearer. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience.
$BTC $BNB 9.2 Trump's tough speech on the Middle East stirs the gold market
Geopolitical risk provides support, but the conflict pushes up oil prices, increasing inflation concerns, which in turn raises expectations for Fed tightening. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are pressured, resulting in a hedged battle between bulls and bears, with no clear one-sided trend.
The news only causes short-term fluctuations; the core focus is on ADP and non-farm payroll data. Do not chase the market on news-driven moves; stick to your trading plan and manage risk well. 🚨 “就业越差，BTC就越涨”的简单剧本，可能已经不适用了。 9月4日，美国8月非农就业报告将公布。市场目前预计新增就业大约 5.5万人，失业率关注 4.1%左右；而此前7月非农曾录得就业减少，劳动力市场降温迹象已经引发市场对美联储政策路径的重新讨论。 现在市场真正盯的，不只是就业人数，还有薪资增速和通胀压力。 ① 就业温和降温 + 薪资同步放缓 → 通胀压力缓解 → 利率预期降温 → BTC、ETH可能获得反弹空间。 ② 就业走弱 + 工资依然偏高 → 市场担心通胀反复 → 降息预期未必明显升温 → 风险资产可能出现“先涨后跌”。 ③ 就业明显强于预期 → 高利率预期重新升温 → 美债收益率承压风险资产 → 高Beta资产波动可能更大。 ④ 就业突然大幅恶化 → 市场从“降息利好”切换成“衰退担忧” → 即使宽松预期升温，风险资产也未必立即上涨。 目前美联储内部对通胀和就业的判断仍存在分歧，7月会议纪要显示，官员仍认为通胀偏高，而劳动力市场整体保持稳定。 所以这次非农真正重要的，是数据组合，而不是单看一个数字。 BTC更像宏观储备型风险资产，ETH对整体风险偏好的敏感度通常更高，两The most unusual scene today: the US-Iran conflict escalates, yet gold is still falling.
Normally, war equals a safe haven, so gold should rise. But today spot gold $XAU actually dropped to around $4304, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of decline. The reason is not that the market fears war less, but that it fears another thing more right now—interest rate hikes.
After the US and Iran struck each other again, Brent crude oil $BZ has reached around $95. With oil prices continuing to rise, inflation becomes harder to reduce. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in September has increased from about 40% a week ago to nearly 70%; the 10-year US Treasury yield has also surged to around 4.81%.
This creates a very interesting chain: war → oil price rise → inflation expectations rise → rate hike probability rise → US Treasury yields rise → gold is actually pressured down.
So now, when I look at gold, I don’t just consider how fierce the US-Iran conflict is. What really determines the next phase of the market is oil prices and US Treasuries. If Brent crude really pushes toward $100, gold may not immediately benefit in the short term; tech stocks might actually continue to take hits first.
This wave of market trading is not simply about "war safe haven," but about whether the war will reignite inflation.Brothers, this week is the last week of data window before the September FOMC meeting. Before Friday's nonfarm payrolls, several appetizers have already been served. Let's look at the ISM Manufacturing PMI first—expansion is still ongoing, but orders are collapsing. Data released on September 1 showed the US August ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.6, below the expected 55.2, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion. On the surface, the economy seems fine, but looking closer: the new orders index plunged from 56.7 to 53.7, the weakest since March. Backlog orders are also falling. Manufacturing "new activity" is rapidly shrinking. More troublesome is the price index at 71.1, above 70 for four consecutive months. About 46% of companies reported rising raw material prices. Corporate feedback pointed directly to three words—"AI, war, and tariffs." New orders are collapsing, prices are high, which is not a good combination. Looking at ADP again—weekly recovery is rebounding, but total volume has long been halved. ADP's weekly employment data shows that in the four weeks ending August 8, the U.S. private sector added an average of 11,750 new jobs per week. Compared to the previous seven consecutive weeks of decline, there is indeed marginal improvement. But don't forget, ADP monthly report in July was only 44,000, while the normal months before were 100,000+. Going from "very bad" to "not that bad" does not mean "good." The market has already chosen a side: the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 66%. After Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole last Friday, CME data showed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September jumped sharply from about 30% to 66.4%. By September 2, the latest data had further increased🚨 Starting September, BTC was heavily pressured again by macro factors.
After a strong rise in August, BTC fell back to around $77,000, ETH dropped to about $2,400, and SOL tested the $100 level again.
The core variable this time is still: rising interest rate expectations.
US Treasury yields rose, oil prices increased, and market bets on a September Fed rate hike rose to about 67%, putting overall pressure on risk assets.
With Friday's nonfarm payroll data about to be released, the real short-term focus is not guessing the bottom, but:
Employment data → Interest rate expectations → BTC direction.
The stronger the rise in August, the more caution is needed for amplified volatility in September.
Look at the data first, then the direction. Don't FOMO, and don't be scared by a single bearish candle.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #DailyOrbitBusiness Layer Robinhood: Single-day fees yesterday were 2.13 million USD (888.39 ETH)
Protocol Layer Arbitrum: As the technology provider, passively earning 10% of the fees
Settlement Layer Ethereum: Single-day fees only 128,000 USD (53.32 $ETH), value capture is being "overridden" by L2#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO
Tim Cook officially stepped down as Apple's CEO, ending a 15-year tenure and transitioning to Executive Chairman of the Board. John Ternus, 51, Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, took over as Apple's third CEO. The handover had been prepared for two years and was unanimously approved by the board.
Who is Ternus? He joined Apple in 2001, a 25-year veteran. He led the transition of the Mac to Apple Silicon, as well as product lines like AirPods and iPad Pro. Cook said he has a "deep understanding of Apple's mission and values." The market gave its first verdict—closing at $319.70 on Friday, up 1.63%. But on Monday, the official day of the leadership change, the stock fell 0.89% to $316.85.
The real issue is not hardware, but AI. Apple is clearly behind in the generative AI field, and Ternus's core task is to catch up. In his statement, he only mentioned "advancing Apple's mission," without mentioning AI—but everyone knows the unspoken word is the real test. Ternus is not lacking in hardware talent, but he lacks strategic judgment for the AI era. Motley Fool data shows that in the previous four planned leadership changes among tech giants, the first-year stock performance ranged from -38% to +76%. He is taking over a company valued at nearly $5 trillion, but the AI question that Cook left unanswered is now Ternus's to solve.Gold plummeted 7%! Should you buy the dip at 4380? 🤯 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
Due to escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, oil prices surged sharply, reigniting inflation concerns. Gold dropped from 4700 to 4380 in a week, a nearly 7% decline, hitting an intraday low of 4364, nearly breaking below the 100-day moving average but narrowly holding support. Many bulls panicked and cut losses to exit.
This is quite counterintuitive; gold fell despite the conflict. Transmission logic: conflict pushes oil prices up → inflation expectations rebound → market prices in a 60% chance of a rate hike in September, the dollar strengthens, and gold comes under pressure and declines.
On one side, retail investors and gold ETFs are frantically selling, while on the other, global central banks continue to accumulate gold. Goldman Sachs remains bullish, maintaining a year-end target of 4900. The medium- to long-term risks in the Middle East have not disappeared, and the long-term fundamental logic for gold still exists. Don't let short-term news disrupt your rhythm. $BTC $ETH 2. The Real Problem: The Rise is Fake, Leverage is Real
Something more ruthless is hidden on-chain.
This round, Bitcoin rose from $63,000 to $80,000, seemingly spectacular. But guess how much the stablecoin market cap increased?
Almost no change.
Compared to the true bull market in 2024-2025, when USDT market cap jumped from 120 billion to 196 billion, that was real new money entering. This time? Existing funds plus leverage forcibly pushed the price up.
Shorts were squeezed out of $6.55 billion in August. Bulls celebrated, thinking the bull market was back. But a short squeeze has a fatal flaw—it’s not new buying, just crushing the opposing side. Once shorts are wiped out, who will take over?
Over the weekend, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was 62, in the greed zone. High prices, greedy sentiment, maxed out leverage—this is a textbook "bull trap." $SOL $ETH $BTC #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验