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In the past two days, a tangible wave of selling pressure has been observed on-chain... The selling pressure comes from short-term traders taking profits... (Those short-term traders who entered at 60k and 63k) (Figure 1)
Realized profits reached nearly 1 billion in one day, about 1.5 billion over two days...
This scale has already exceeded the profit-taking scale during the previous rebounds at 98k and 83k...
------------- Who manages automation after tokenized assets enter the wallet?
Yesterday's focus was whether assets can be put on-chain; today the question has shifted: after assets enter the wallet, who manages automation?
According to CoinDesk, Bitwise has launched an automated tokenized US stock portfolio where investors hold individual shares in their wallets, and software adjusts the portfolio according to a model. Another report shows POSCO International and partners recording accounts receivable on an Avalanche-based network, with AI first verifying trade documents.
LayerZero's ATLAS integrates matching, clearing, settlement, and risk management into trading infrastructure. The common trend is that tokenization not only changes asset representation but also changes where rule enforcement occurs.
The real questions are: Is the scope of strategy authorization clear? Can key actions be paused and reviewed? Can abnormal inputs be prevented from signing? "Can execute" does not equal "authorized."
#AI #Web3 #MPC #Tokenization #RWA📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions have completely collapsed from an extreme 631x dominance to a short position reversal at 1.55x. The total liquidation in 24 hours exceeded $870,000, with a concentration as high as 62%, and the short squeeze momentum has completely vanished...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $11,300 $11,300 $17.90
4 hours $73,300 $70,500 $2,794.57
12 hours $544,300 $317,800 $226,600
24 hours $877,000 $344,000 $533,000
In 1 hour, longs dominated with an extreme 631x leverage, amounting to $11,300, showing extreme control; in 4 hours, long leverage sharply dropped to 25x, with volume soaring to $70,500; in 12 hours, long leverage further dropped to 1.4x, volume surged to $317,800, nearly balanced between longs and shorts; in 24 hours, shorts reversed with 1.55x leverage, liquidating $533,000 against longs' $344,000, totaling $877,000. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 62% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration—longs completed most of the harvesting within 12 hours but were fully suppressed by shorts in the latter 12 hours. Long leverage collapsed from 631x to being reversed by shorts at 1.55x, the short squeeze momentum completely vanished, and the directional dominance switched. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction has turned bearish, the intensity is mild, so avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stay put amid a surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability is in Question
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an increase in long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows that approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, continuous spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of an "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded firmly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After the sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, recently disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying Bitcoin as it approached $80,000, hoarding $6.7 billion in cash—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or holding steady at current prices will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin’s short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying Bitcoin near $80,000, hoarding $6.7 billion cash, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. $SPCX contract longs collapsed from an extreme 631x dominance to being reversed by shorts at 1.55x, with total liquidation of $870,000 and 62% concentration, the short squeeze momentum completely vanished, and directional dominance switched. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
Rallied then fell back, all lines cooled off.
$BTC once surged to 81,240 before falling back, dropping below 78,000. ETH weakened in sync to around 2,460. ZEC fell back from a high of 889 to 796. HYPE broke 83 then retraced to 78.
The overall rally then pullback — it's not a change in fundamentals, but funds are hedging ahead of Nvidia's earnings report.
BTC rose 24% this week, with over $4 billion in shorts liquidated in the past few days. But the fear and greed index has soared to 81, entering "extreme greed" for the first time in 2024. The last time it was at extreme greed was March 2024, when BTC dropped from 73,000 to 59,000.
$ETH's relative strength is weakening — when BTC surged to 81,000, ETH didn't reach its previous high. Profit-taking is emerging in ZEC and HYPE, and those chasing highs are starting to stand guard. Exchanges collectively raising VIP levels is essentially a "tax cut in the crypto space"
If you observe the trading volumes of major exchanges, you will notice a very clear migration trend:
The proportion of cryptocurrency contracts in overall trading is declining, while U.S. stock contracts are diverting more and more funds.
The reason is not complicated.
For traders, capital naturally flows from less popular markets to popular ones, and from markets with higher trading costs to those with lower costs. Compared to digital currency contracts, U.S. stock contracts often have lower funding rates and trading costs, and their underlying assets are more likely to attract traditional capital.
So the question becomes:
If you are trading contracts, why trade digital currencies instead of U.S. stocks?
As more people turn to U.S. stock contracts, the originally higher fee structure of digital currency contracts begins to lose its meaning. Because without sufficient trading volume, even the most refined VIP1—VIP8 tiers are just for show.
At this point, exchanges proactively upgrade users' VIP levels, ostensibly granting benefits, but in reality lowering trading fees.
For example, a quant team that could only get VIP3 before can now directly obtain VIP6. For ordinary users, the perception of fee reduction may not be obvious; but for high-frequency traders, large funds, and quant teams, the cost difference between VIP3 and VIP6 can be very significant.
And these groups happen to contribute:
- Large capital deposits
- High trading volumes
- Continuous and stable market liquidity
Therefore, if an exchange can offer me VIP6 while others only offer VIP3, I will naturally migrate more funds and trading volume to that exchange.
Other exchanges, seeing this, can only follow suit.
We are all professional players and can see clearly: the so-called "VIP upgrade" is essentially not a welfare, but exchanges actively lowering fees to compete for liquidity when trading volume is insufficient.
This is like tax cuts or tax exemptions for three years during an economic downturn.
Trading fees are the "transaction tax" in the crypto space; raising VIP levels is lowering the tax rate in the crypto space.
Therefore, the real logic behind this round of collective VIP upgrades by exchanges is:
To attract capital back, the "central bank" of the crypto space is starting to cut taxes.
After the tax cut, quant funds and large holders will recalculate costs and migrate funds to platforms with lower fees and better liquidity. Lower trading costs will further stimulate trading frequency and volume.
So, this round of "crypto tax cuts" may affect not only competition among a few exchanges.
It may also become an important force driving the next phase of market volume recovery and even the next market rally.
Liquidity does not arise out of thin air, but lowering trading costs is always one of the most direct ways to stimulate liquidity.
Therefore, exchanges collectively raising VIP levels is essentially a "tax cut in the crypto space." Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 is meaningful, but the quality of the move matters more than the threshold itself. Last week's $1.92B in US spot BTC ETF inflows, alongside spot buying and short covering, gave the rebound real support. The next test is whether demand persists as profitable short-term holders and higher exchange inflows increase potential supply. With July PCE, the Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech, and jobs-data revisions ahead, sustained ETF flows, spot volume, and broader risk appetite would make the bull-market case more convincing. Not advice, just analysis.
#BTC80KHoldOrFoldMany people overlook a key point: the BTC-ETH price ratio is a barometer of current capital preference.
Only when the US stock market fluctuates both up and down can you sleep well 😴
Recently, ETFs have seen large dual inflows of capital, but the allocation is uneven, with the inflow volume into $BTC significantly higher than into $ETH. Institutional allocation strategy is very clear: first, allocate the base position to BTC for broad hedging; only when risk appetite further increases will the allocation ratio to ETH be raised.
A rising price ratio indicates capital preference toward Bitcoin; a falling ratio means incremental funds are willing to embrace Ethereum's elasticity. At this stage, don't subjectively assume ETH will start a large catch-up rally. First observe the price ratio signals, then decide on position bias—this is much more reliable than simply betting on price movements.$SNDK
Last night’s judgment: As long as the 1400-1415 support holds, a recovery will come, so you can continue to hold.
Risk points
1. Capital outflow from the sector, market deleveraging is obvious
The total open interest of the three giants in Hyperliquid storage has shrunk by 32.2%, and the number of SNDK holders has sharply contracted. This round is a recovery rebound after deleveraging, not a trend reversal; both long and short leverage are falling simultaneously.
2. Storage sector divergence, SNDK trend is weak
In the past 7 days, SNDK fell 11.6%, while SKHX in the same sector rose, showing relative weakness of the target.
3. Huge previous decline, heavy overhead resistance
Since the high point of 2350, it has fallen sharply with consecutive large drops; rebounds will continue to face pressure from forced selling to break even. Fundamental Research Report $DYDX / dYdX (DeFi) $3.20
Conclusion first: dYdX ($DYDX) overall score 48/100, rating Early-stage project, insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: dYdX (token $DYDX), DeFi sector. Focuses on decentralized perpetual contracts. Competitors include SNX, GMX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless trading fees are lower, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction value $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: dYdX $3.00B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. FDV: dYdX $4.20B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Annual revenue: dYdX $2.00M, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: dYdX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario doubles revenue, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 48/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Continuous monitoring: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for now, see you next time.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Semiconductor revenue recovery usually comes from three layers. The first layer is the inventory cycle: customers stop destocking and return to normal purchasing; even if end sales do not increase significantly, chip companies' shipments will rebound. The second layer is operating leverage: foundries, packaging, and R&D expenses have a large amount of fixed costs, so after capacity utilization rises, every additional dollar of revenue may bring faster profit growth. ADI's 40% revenue growth and 97% operating profit growth are typical examples. The third layer is structural growth: new applications expand long-term unit usage or market size, such as data center interconnects, automotive electrification, and industrial automation.
When analyzing, do not only look at year-over-year revenue. First, check whether inventory days and channel inventory continue to decline; then see if gross margin improvement comes from utilization, product mix, or one-time factors; next verify whether operating cash flow can keep up with profits; finally observe whether all end markets grow simultaneously. ADI's industrial and communications are strong, automotive is moderate, supporting the preliminary judgment of "broadening recovery," but it is not enough to prove that all end markets have entered a multi-year upcycle.
Contrary conditions should also be clearly stated in advance: if revenue guidance is consecutively revised downward for the next two quarters, industrial or automotive orders weaken again, channel inventory rises while end demand does not improve, or free cash flow rate is significantly lower than profit margin, then today's "breadth improvement" should be withdrawn. For Intel, if 18A mass production is delayed, yield drags down gross margin, or external foundry customers still do not convert to orders, then the technology roadmap cannot support stronger long-term assumptions. #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 In the past 24–72 hours, there have been no new financial reports in the SMH research pool sufficient to change the long-term facts of the portfolio; what is worth studying in depth is the performance of Analog Devices (ADI) on August 19: growth comes not only from AI computing but also spreads to industrial, communications, and automotive sectors, which tests the breadth of the semiconductor recovery better than a single GPU hotspot. On August 24, Intel announced three sets of Agentic AI architectures, which are valuable technical roadmaps but have not yet provided verification through orders, yields, revenue, or free cash flow, so they cannot be equated with realized financial results. The VanEck official page shows that as of August 21, 2026, the SMH daily holdings officially total 26; excluding cash, the company research pool on that day was 25. ADI accounts for 4.40% of SMH, which multiplied by 70% of SMH in the portfolio results in an approximate 3.08% penetration weight in the total portfolio. ADI announced its fiscal third-quarter results for 2026 on August 19: revenue of $4.022 billion, a year-over-year increase of 40%; GAAP gross margin of 67.3%, up 520 basis points; operating margin of 40.1%, up 1170 basis points. Quarterly operating cash flow was $1.604 billion, free cash flow $1.458 billion, equivalent to 40% and 36% of revenue, respectively. The company gave a median revenue guidance of $4.3 billion for the fourth quarter, with an adjusted operating margin median of 52%. The market cares not only about the 40% revenue growth but also the growth ofAfter BTC broke 80,000, who is still buying?
BTC has climbed back above $80,000, and the market is quick to attribute this rally to short covering. But the latest ETF data signals something else: on August 24, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $338 million, marking six consecutive trading days of capital inflow, with a total inflow exceeding $2.5 billion over the past six days.
This means that short liquidations are only part of the rally; spot capital is also continuously absorbing. Especially since BTC has already risen to a high level, the ETF's ability to maintain net inflows is even more noteworthy than the single-day price breakout itself.
Of course, several days of inflows alone are not enough to directly confirm a new trend. What’s truly worth watching next is whether ETF capital can continue to hold after BTC stays above $80,000. If capital continues and the price stabilizes, the underlying support for this rally will be more solid than just short covering.最近很多人问我：美国加密监管到底走到哪一步了？感觉每天都有新消息，但又说不清楚方向。我花了点时间把三条最重要的线索理了一遍，直接说结论。 第一条线：稳定币法案已经落地 2025年7月，特朗普签署了GENIUS法案，这是美国联邦层面第一部正式的加密立法。核心规则很简单——支付型稳定币必须有1:1的高流动性资产储备，发行方不能直接给持有者支付利息。 这意味着什么？USDT、USDC这些巨头以后要在合规框架内运营，而不是在灰色地带野蛮生长。对普通用户来说，稳定币会更安全；对交易所来说，托管和合规成本会上升。 第二条线：加密市场结构法案卡住了 CLARITY法案本来是最被看好的——2025年7月众议院294:134高票通过，参议院银行委员会也15:9推进了。结果到了全院表决，被民主党7名参议员联手拦下。 卡点不是技术问题，是政治问题。民主党要求加入伦理条款，限制特朗普家族从加密业务中获利（他2025年财务披露显示加密相关收入约14亿美元）。Polymarket上“2026年内通过”的概率已经从5月的70%暴跌到15%。 9月参议院复会后还有一次窗口，但如果拖到11月中期选举，新一届国会权力结构$ETH and $BTC: Same market, different structure
$BTC pulled back after breaking through $80,000, while $ETH, although rebounding, remains fragile around $2,500. The key difference lies in capital structure: Bitcoin benefits from stronger institutional and ETF demand, whereas Ethereum faces more leverage-driven volatility and sell-offs.
Don't assume ETH will react like BTC. Watch the ETH/BTC ratio: continued weakness indicates underperformance, suggesting ETH may need more time to absorb selling pressure. What about $SOL $ZEC $OKB?Bitcoin Deep-Dive | Aug. 26, 2026
BTC is trading around $78,600, with a market cap of roughly $1.58T. About 20.075M BTC are circulating, against a 21M maximum supply. Nearly 95.6% has already been mined.
Bitcoin’s core value comes from scarcity, Proof of Work, decentralization and global liquidity. Only about 925K BTC remain to be mined, while the block reward will eventually fall from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.
The bigger question is not how much BTC remains, but how much is actually available for sale.
Recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $1.92B in weekly net inflows, showing renewed institutional demand. But the rally was also supported by short covering and roughly $3B in short liquidations.
So ETF inflows alone are not enough.
The signals I’m watching:
① ETF net flows
② Long-term holder accumulation
③ Exchange BTC balances
④ Stablecoin/global liquidity
⑤ Genuine spot demand
BTC is increasingly sensitive to DXY, Treasury yields and Fed policy. Easier liquidity can support BTC, while tightening can trigger major corrections.
Valuation
$100K → ~$2T market cap
$200K → ~$4T
$300K → ~$6T
$500K → ~$10T
$1M → ~$20.7T
So $1M BTC is not simply a price target. It requires a massive shift in global capital allocation.
My view: 4.6/5
BTC remains the strongest core crypto asset.
But $80K is not a confirmed bull-market signal.
The real question is:
When BTC pulls back, is real capital still buying?
Follow the capital. Follow the supply. Follow the data.$BTC CFTC"正在推进合规"，特朗普亲自站台喊话，HYPE一周从58干到83，创历史新高。看起来是国家队进场、监管落地、价值重估的大戏。 醒醒。这套剧本Hyperliquid团队从去年11月就开始演了。 先说客观事实：Hyperliquid从2025年11月29日起，2.378亿枚HYPE要在24个月里线性解锁，这是团队和早期投资人的份额，不是空投。按现价算，这笔解锁的名义总价值超百亿美元，每月净流入市场近5亿美元。而项目方自己的回购机制——Assistance Fund——每月大概只能买回4600万美元左右。缺口摆在那儿，谁来接？ 再看时间线：8月29日团队将迎来又一笔大额解锁，与此同时有巨鲸在准备做空4200万美元的仓位。你品，一边是明牌要抛售的团队份额，一边是提前布局做空的聪明钱，中间夹着一条"合规利好"刚好在这个节骨眼冒出来，把散户的FOMO情绪拉到83刀历史新高。 这不是阴谋论，这是结构。团队解锁前需要有人接盘，最好的接盘方式就是让币价先冲一波，情绪上头的人会觉得"这波要起飞了"，然后追高进场。至于追高的钱最后被谁的解锁筹码吃掉，不需要我明说。 Hyperliquid本身的产品是ETH at $2470, are you going to chase it?
First, look at the surface: from 1900 to 2470 in one month, a surge of 30%.
Last week, ETF net inflows were $697 million (the strongest week in 2026), with another $116 million inflow on August 24, continuous positive inflows for several days. Volume broke through the nearly one-year downtrend line, standing above EMA20/50, the mid-term trend has reversed, don’t get shaken out.
But the RSI at 78-80 indicates overbought levels, making hands sweat.
First thing: ETFs are buying wildly, supply is being locked up.
US spot ETH ETFs had a net inflow of $700 million last week, led by BlackRock, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $12 billion. This directly locks spot holdings, reducing selling pressure. Fidelity even promotes full collateralization of ETFs plus quarterly dividends—you can earn staking rewards on the ETFs you buy, institutions are turning ETH into an "income-generating asset."
BitMine bought another 32,400 ETH last week (about $81 million), total holdings have reached 5.85 million ETH—close to 4.8% of total ETH supply! Of which 87% is staked.
Second thing: You’re still waiting for a pullback to 2000, but the market isn’t giving that chance.
In mid-August, ETH was hovering around 1900, and you were waiting to "buy at 1800." Instead, it surged 30% in a single week, hitting 2530. Now it’s pulling back to 2470, and you’re waiting to "buy at 2300."
This is the fate of retail investors: always waiting for lower prices, always missing out.
Exchange balances have been declining since the June peak, staking ratio still at 30%, corporate treasuries + ETFs further reduce circulation. Supply is shrinking, demand is exploding, it would be strange if prices didn’t rise.
Third thing: The technicals have reached a decisive moment.
2530-2550 is the first hurdle; if surpassed, look to 2800, then above 3000. But if it breaks below 2440 with volume, a short-term top is confirmed, with pullbacks to 2350 or even 2150-2200.
In terms of pattern, a strong rebound followed by a flag/rectangle consolidation, a typical continuation pattern.
On August 28, at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will speak. Dove = ETH surges to 2800, Hawk = pullback to 2200. This is the real decisive moment.
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 2460-2485 or 2420-2440 to stabilize and buy in batches, stop loss at 2400, target 2530-2550 → 2800. If volume supports a hold above 2530, you can chase, stop loss 2480, target 2800.
Swing traders:
Wait until after Jackson Hole. Dove scenario → chase longs targeting 2800-3000, Hawk scenario → wait to buy at 2200-2300.
Long-term believers:
DCA below 2400, target 3000-4000 by year-end. Institutional ETFs + staking dividends + supply tightening, the narrative is solid. But remember—keep 30% cash for black swan events. 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
After a short-term extreme short monopoly, the longs violently took over, with leverage stable around 10x. The total liquidation in 24 hours was only $132,400, with a concentration as high as 95%, indicating a low liquidity invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $84.28 $0 $84.28
4 hours $111,400 $101,600 $9,800
12 hours $125,700 $114,100 $11,600
24 hours $132,400 $120,700 $11,700
1-hour short monopoly (longs zero), volume only $84.28, considered invalid volume; 4-hour longs violently reversed at 10.3x leverage, volume surged to $101,600; 12-hour long leverage slightly dropped to 9.8x, volume rose to $114,100; 24-hour leverage slightly rose to 10.3x, liquidation $120,700 for longs vs. $11,700 for shorts, totaling $132,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 95% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—the longs almost completed all harvesting within 12 hours, with only about $6,700 added in the following 12 hours. Long leverage remains stable around 10x, short squeeze momentum is mild, but the total daily volume is only $132,400, indicating a low liquidity invalid market with no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this coin has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid "devaluation trading," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, while the largest Bitcoin holding company remains inactive amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability is Doubtful
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from the macro side. US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-offs and reigniting "devaluation trading." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows about $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, sustained spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced the "Economic Normandy Landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the related processes."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing concerns.
🏦 Strategy Stands Still: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at the current price will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trading" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. LAB contract liquidation totaled only $132,400 with 95% concentration, indicating a low liquidity invalid market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main lines—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When devaluation trading, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $ZEC , $SNDK , I already posted my views yesterday saying that ZEC has reached a turning point, and SNDK can be shorted at 1550. I actually have some basis and opinions on this. 1. Based on BTC catching up and breaking previous highs, ETH consolidating, and other sectors pulling back and falling, it’s clear that the current market lacks capital momentum. A correction is necessary to ease the selling pressure from profit-taking. 2. ZEC, as a 🐲 privacy coin, has nearly doubled and entered the topMicron CEO reduced holdings by $38.75 million again at the $968 rebound high, pushing the core contradiction of $MU's market to a higher dimension: the executive sentiment risk aversion behind compliant selling and the roughly 50% supply-demand gap in AI data centers are fiercely competing.
Currently, $MU's stock price is around $933, down 25% from the historical high of $1255. After reaching the weighted average high of $968.90 on August 21, resistance appeared. The executives' cumulative cash-out of about $76 million in two rounds indirectly triggered a 30%-40% deep correction in the sector in July, imposing a psychological selling pressure ceiling on the current rebound.
In terms of driving logic ranking, the Q4 revenue guidance of $50 billion and 84.9% gross margin serve as primary support, far exceeding expectations and confirming that hardware demand remains solid. The executives' cash-out triggered concerns about a cycle peak and profit-taking, which is a secondary variable, causing serious divergence in liquidity orders near the $969 rebound high on the trading floor.
The trigger condition for the bullish scenario is the continued supply shortage in data centers and accelerated absorption of selling pressure from reductions. If bulls push the stock price to break through $969 and hold above the $1000 mark, Wall Street's target price expectations of $1050 to $1625 will regain dominance, with compliant risk signals being overshadowed by performance realization.
The trigger condition for the bearish scenario is a peak turning point in DRAM or HBM prices, causing the market to reprice according to the traditional hardware cycle. Once the stock price breaks below the previous correction support at $800, the CEO's cash-outs at $968 and the earlier $37.3 million will become signals of loosening bullish chips, triggering a trend-following sell-off.
The consolidation scenario is effective when the stock price remains in the $800 to $969 range, indicating that funds are digesting the 25% correction and awaiting further fundamental data. Whether this range breaks will directly determine if the cycle peak hypothesis holds.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the progress of selling pressure digestion at the $969 rebound high and the resilience of the $800 support level under spot price fluctuations.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口When optical communication, storage, and crypto concept stocks all surged wildly on the same night, Bitcoin quietly slipped down from $81,000 — in this party's glass, who is truly drinking and who is just pretending to be drunk? On August 26, 2026, after the US stock market closed, the Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.66%. Optical communication stock Lumentum rose over 6%, storage stocks Seagate and Western Digital rose over 3%, SK Hynix and Micron rose over 2%, while crypto concept stocks were even stronger — Hut 8 Mining rose over 7%, Figure and IREN rose over 6%, Circle and Coinbase rose over 4%, Strategy rose over 3%. 【Veteran's Ramblings】 That night's market, insiders see the key, outsiders just see the excitement. The excitement is Lumentum and others rising enthusiastically; the key lies in a hidden thread — the US Treasury signaling it will buy 30-year bonds to suppress the long end of the yield curve. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 4.63%, the 30-year fell 6 basis points. What does pressing down the long end mean? It means the "currency depreciation trade" has been pushed to the center of market focus. Canaccord Genuity analyst Joseph Vafi put it plainly: all this is crucial for BTC and MSTR because such Treasury actions reduce the attractiveness of long-term bonds in terms of yield. The coin price sneaked ahead, but the stock gains were left behind. Bitcoin intraday broke through 81,000 USD Chinese debt has been ongoing for almost 2 years, with such a long interval that many people believe China's debt resolution has been completed, but in reality, it has not.
On November 8, 2024, the 14th National People's Congress passed a new round of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan": increasing the debt limit (6 trillion yuan). This limit will be implemented over 3 years starting from 2024, with 2 trillion yuan allocated each year from 2024 to 2026.
New special bond arrangements (4 trillion yuan): starting from 2024, for five consecutive years, 800 billion yuan annually from new local government special bonds will be specifically allocated for debt resolution, cumulatively replacing 4 trillion yuan of implicit debt.
Among these, the major part of debt resolution is the "6 trillion yuan replacement quota," which will enter its final stage in the second half of this year. In other words, China's debt resolution process will basically conclude by 2027.
The debt resolution process must be accompanied by total leverage ratio restrictions; otherwise, debt resolution financing cannot be completed through price discrimination. Under this condition, government financing largely crowds out private financing. The annual 2.8 trillion yuan debt resolution financing will not generate new physical output, but it occupies the debt limit. This inflow and outflow means that nearly 5.6 trillion yuan of effective debt has been reduced each year over the past three years. This implicit debt contraction is one of the important reasons for China's sustained economic sluggishness.
However, in the second half of this year, the total leverage ratio restriction will be lifted, and the additional debt space will be more used for the real economy. A new round of fiscal expansion cycle will gradually begin.$BTC ｜ Banks will all custody Bitcoin, but the real challenge is how to generate returns. Core Alpha provides a solution path
In the future, more and more traditional banks will launch Bitcoin custody services, and this is gradually becoming a reality.
However, custody is only the first step. The real tricky question is what banks allow customers to do with their Bitcoin and how to safely generate returns 🔶.
Banks can hold BTC for you, but due to regulatory, risk control, and internal business framework constraints, the vast majority of traditional institutions treat Bitcoin as a passive custodial asset. Assets lying in custody accounts can only wait for price fluctuations, making it difficult to legally and compliantly access DeFi staking and lending to generate passive income.
A massive amount of Bitcoin custodied within the banking system remains "sleeping assets," with only price volatility but no cash flow.
Core Alpha is positioned as the technical solution to bridge this gap:
It enables ordinary users and licensed custodians to safely activate Bitcoin's earning potential without transferring custody relationships or changing the bank's custody framework.
Core Alpha core logic
1. BTC remains in the hands of banks/licensed custodians, no need to transfer to external wallets, avoiding custody and compliance risks caused by asset relocation;
2. Based on Core's underlying Satoshi-Plus consensus and Bitcoin native timelock CLTV technology, it mints lstBTC liquid staking certificates;
3. After custodian authorization, lstBTC can access the BTC-Fi ecosystem to participate in staking and lending, thereby generating protocol revenue;
4. Returns flow back to the original custody account, with Bitcoin itself still held by the bank, achieving "coins stay in the bank, earnings run on-chain."
Simply put: banks handle "custody," Core Alpha handles "activating earning capability," each performing its role.
Current progress
✅ Established foundational conditions
1. The underlying BTC staking infrastructure mainnet runs stably; lstBTC already supports integration with multiple institutional custody channels like BitGo and Copper, with real BTC staking entering the network and generating actual protocol income;
2. The London Stock Exchange has launched a Bitcoin yield ETP product based on Core technology, with institutional security models validated by traditional financial markets;
3. The trend of banks custoding Bitcoin is clear, with many large custody banks in Europe and the US having launched or planned crypto asset custody services.
⚠️ Still in the advancement phase
1. The complete Core Alpha standardized suite for banks is still iterating and polishing, not yet delivered at scale to global commercial banks;
2. Each bank faces independent regulatory constraints, with huge compliance differences across regions, so one technical solution cannot directly unlock all;
3. True large-scale commercialization depends on commercial banks completing technical integration, internal risk control approvals, and real BTC earning cases from bank clients, representing full narrative realization.
Two layers of reality to distinguish
- Trend: bank custody of BTC is the big direction;
- Pain point: custody is easy, compliant Bitcoin earning is hard, which is the market gap Core Alpha aims to solve.
But a feasible technical framework does not mean immediate large-scale adoption; bank-side risk control, regional regulation, and internal business processes are all real obstacles.
Key signals for future validation and implementation: commercial banks officially announce Core Alpha integration, custody account BTC starts lstBTC staking, and on-chain queries show new staking volume from bank channels.
Summary: In the future, banks can help you store Bitcoin but will struggle to help your Bitcoin earn money. Core Alpha hopes to fill the gap of "custody BTC to generate returns." The vision is grand, but commercial implementation still requires observing institutional integration and compliance progress.
#CORE #CoreAlpha #BTC‑Fi #lstBTC #OKXPlanetCEO Cashed Out Precisely at $968 — The "Cycle Peak" Debate of Micron, Both Bulls and Bears Have Their Evidence
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💰 1. Event Overview: 27 Transactions, $38.76 Million Cashed Out
On August 21, Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO of Micron Technology (MU), sold 40,000 common shares through 27 transactions at prices ranging from $959.14 to $989.59, with a weighted average price of about $968.90, cashing out approximately $38.76 million. After the sale, Mehrotra directly holds 264,503 shares and indirectly holds 607,075 shares through trusts.
Key detail: This sale was executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established on January 30, 2026. This is a preset trading plan where executives set the selling time and price in advance without insider knowledge to avoid insider trading suspicion. The issue is—the plan set in January just happened to hit the stock price peak in August.
📈 2. Market Background: From $1,255 to $969, High-Level Cash-Out Coincides with "Cycle Peak" Debate
On June 25, 2026, Micron’s stock hit a record high of $1,255. Afterwards, due to market concerns about the storage cycle peaking, the stock price deeply corrected below $800. In mid-August, catalyzed by a positive SanDisk investor day, the storage sector collectively rebounded, and on August 21, Micron rose back to around $969—Mehrotra’s selling timing almost exactly at the rebound peak.
Micron’s fundamentals are indeed strong: Q3 revenue was $41.5 billion, up 346% year-over-year; gross margin was 84.9%, surpassing Nvidia’s margin that quarter; Q4 revenue guidance is $50 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $43.2 billion. Mehrotra also publicly stated that AI has fundamentally changed the storage industry’s cycle logic, with data center customer demand about 50% higher than Micron’s promised supply. Micron also announced a $10 billion investment over the next decade to establish an AI storage R&D center.
📉 3. Market Implications: Executive Compliant Cash-Out, but Insider Signals Cannot Be Ignored
Although the 10b5-1 plan is compliant, the executive’s sale near $1,000 sends a psychological signal to the market—not even the CEO, who is most optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects, is not locking in some gains at the high point.
In fact, this is Mehrotra’s second large-scale sale this year. On July 24, he sold about $37.3 million worth of stock, totaling about $76 million cashed out in two transactions. Previously, the CEO’s 10b5-1 selling plan intensified the panic that led to a 30%-40% deep correction in the storage sector in July.
🏦 4. Institutions Still Bullish, but Divergence Widens
Despite the CEO’s high-level cash-out, mainstream Wall Street institutions remain bullish:
Institution Rating Target Price
Bank of America Buy $1,550
Morgan Stanley Buy $1,050
UBS Buy $1,625
Raymond James Buy $1,100
Data source:
But the divergence is widening. Bulls believe AI demand has completely changed the storage cycle, and supply tightness will last at least until after 2027; bears worry DRAM/HBM prices are about to peak. Micron’s current stock price is about $933, still down about 25% from the all-time high of $1,255.
💎 5. Summary
Mehrotra’s high-level cash-out has made the bull-bear debate over Micron even more intense. If AI truly rewrites the storage cyclicality, $969 might be the mid-mountain; if the market’s cycle concerns are correct, this is a signal of smart money cashing out at the top.
Both sides have ample evidence; only time will tell who is right.
$MU #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨
Latest Data
London gold is currently fluctuating at a high level, gold ETFs continue to see inflows, and institutions have raised target prices. $BTC 80583, ETH 2500, SOL $101, with safe-haven funds simultaneously positioning in gold and crypto.
Market Consensus
Long-term bullish on gold, but short-term high-level divergence is significant, with concerns over Federal Reserve policy impact.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Central bank gold purchases and a weak dollar support gold's long-term logic; short-term positions are overheated, and the Jackson Hole meeting will intensify volatility. Gold strengthening is positive for crypto sentiment, but high-volatility coins remain suppressed by interest rate expectations.
Personal Viewpoint (personal bias towards a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Gold should not be chased at highs; wait for a pullback. Crypto is disturbed by macro sentiment; strictly control positions in high-volatility coins and closely monitor Federal Reserve signals. # BTC Deep Value Analysis｜August 26, 2026
1. Core Data
BTC is currently around $78,600, with a market cap of approximately $1.58 trillion, circulating supply about 20.075 million coins, max supply 21 million coins, about 95.6% mined, 24-hour trading volume roughly $46 billion–68 billion, all-time high around $126,000, currently about 38% retraced from the peak. Slight differences exist across platforms due to update times.
2. Why BTC Has Value
BTC has no corporate profit statement; its core value comes from: 21 million coin cap, Proof of Work, decentralization, and global consensus. Current block reward is 3.125 BTC, halving next reduces it to 1.5625 BTC. PoW secures the network through global miners, computing power, and real-world energy costs, making BTC closer to a "digital scarce asset + global open monetary network."
3. True Scarcity
About 925,000 BTC remain unmined, but more importantly is the BTC truly willing to be sold in the market. If more BTC moves into long-term holders, ETFs, corporate balance sheets, and cold wallets, the actual tradable supply may decrease. The core logic is whether demand growth outpaces sellable supply.
4. Institutional Capital
Spot ETFs represent the biggest structural change for BTC. Previously, institutions faced custody, private key, and compliance issues to allocate BTC; now they can do so through traditional finance. Recently, US spot BTC ETFs have seen significant inflows again, with about $1.92 billion net inflow in the past week. However, ETF inflows do not mean all price gains come from new spot funds. This rally is driven by ETF capital return, improved macro liquidity expectations, a weaker dollar, and short squeeze clearing about $3 billion in short positions recently. The true strong signal is: sustained ETF net inflows + increased spot demand + long-term holders continuing to absorb supply.
5. Macro Environment
BTC can no longer be viewed solely through crypto internal funds; now we must watch the US Dollar Index, US Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, global liquidity, and ETF capital. Recent US Treasury repo plans and expectations of a weaker dollar have improved liquidity conditions, contributing to BTC's rise. BTC is increasingly becoming a global liquidity-sensitive asset.
6. On-Chain Data
BTC lacks traditional profit statements, so on-chain data is crucial. Key points: ① whether long-term holders continue to increase; ② whether exchange BTC balances decrease; ③ whether whales hold long-term after buying instead of transferring to exchanges; ④ Realized Cap, the capital base calculated by BTC's last on-chain movement price. No single indicator alone should dictate buy/sell decisions; price, capital flow, and macro environment must be combined.
7. Miners
Miners' income comes from block rewards and transaction fees. Post-halving, block rewards keep decreasing; currently, fees account for about 0.7% of miner revenue. Miner profitability pressure will increase in 2026; network difficulty has dropped about 14% from highs. This is not a short-term core risk but a long-term concern: as block rewards decline, can transaction fees cover sufficient network security costs?
8. BTC's Main Advantages
① 21 million supply cap; ② decentralization; ③ PoW security; ④ highest liquidity among global crypto assets; ⑤ spot ETFs provide institutional access. Thus, BTC belongs to a completely different investment category than most altcoins.
9. Main Risks
First, valuation is already very high, with current market cap about $1.58 trillion; early-stage 100x logic cannot be replicated. Second, macro liquidity: if the dollar strengthens, US yields rise, and Fed tightens, BTC could see 30% to 50% corrections. Third, ETFs both buy and sell; higher institutionalization means large-scale withdrawals could have more impact. Fourth, long-term miner security budgets may become a structural issue.
10. Market Cap Implied Price
Based on about 20.075 million circulating supply:
$80,000 ≈ $1.61T market cap;
$100,000 ≈ $2.01T;
$150,000 ≈ $3.01T;
$200,000 ≈ $4.02T;
$300,000 ≈ $6.02T;
$500,000 ≈ $10.04T;
$1,000,000 ≈ $20.75T.
So BTC reaching $1 million is not a math problem but whether global capital is willing to allocate about $20 trillion to BTC.
11. Three Scenarios
Pessimistic: ETF outflows continue, dollar strengthens, global liquidity tightens, on-chain demand declines, BTC may return to $50,000–70,000.
Neutral: ETF inflows continue, institutions keep allocating, macro environment is moderate, $100,000–150,000 has strong logical basis.
Optimistic: ETF expansion continues, corporate and sovereign funds increase, global money supply expands, BTC further becomes a reserve asset, $200,000–300,000+ enters discussion range. $500,000 or even $1M requires major structural changes in global capital allocation.
12. Final Judgment
Overall score: 4.6/5.
BTC remains the strongest fundamental, most liquid, and most institutionally recognized core asset in the crypto market. Investing in BTC now is no longer "buy a small asset waiting for it to become global," but "buy an already globally important asset that can still increase its share of global capital allocation."
The true determinants of BTC valuation going forward are: ETF → institutions → corporations → sovereign funds → global asset allocation.
Next, the 5 most important indicators to track: ① whether ETFs sustain net inflows; ② global USD/stablecoin liquidity; ③ whether long-term holders continue absorbing supply; ④ whether exchange sellable BTC decreases; ⑤ whether real spot demand keeps pace after price rises.
BTC recently tested $80,000 then pulled back again, so **$80,000 is not a bull market confirmation signal**. What truly matters is: after BTC drops, is there still capital buying?
If price, ETF capital, and on-chain demand resonate, that is a more valuable signal than simply "breaking through 80,000." $BTC $CORE The bull market for CORE is not driven by hype but by a flywheel effect🔥
BTCFi has become the core narrative for the next bull market, and CORE is highly anticipated. But the logic has truly changed this time—
Previously, it relied on inflation subsidies to boost metrics, but in 2026 CORE will directly switch to the "revenue era": all ecosystem fees will be collected into the treasury and used to continuously buy back and burn tokens on the secondary market.
In plain terms: BTC is staked → the ecosystem earns fees → buybacks crush sell pressure → fewer tokens in circulation. This is the value flywheel.
SatPay Bitcoin Bank, LST liquid staking, and AMP asset management are the three products driving cash flow. European listed institution BTCS has already acquired tokens and plans to increase holdings.
How much can it rise? Three scenarios:
😴 Conservative: slow adoption, only a slight boost for the sector
😐 Neutral: SatPay succeeds, the flywheel spins, comparable to second-tier tracks
🚀 Optimistic: BTC capital inflow + continuous buybacks + institutional accumulation, the ceiling opens up
But don’t ignore the risks: STX and others have a clear first-mover advantage, product delays are possible, the market and regulations can change suddenly, and large unlocks could crash prices. The lessons from the drop from all-time highs are still fresh.
So don’t blindly all-in on target prices; focus on three data points: SatPay public beta, real on-chain fees, and institutional accumulation progress.
When the narrative turns into cash flow and the flywheel truly spins, the bull market won’t be just a pipe dream.
#BTCFi #CORE #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Direction switched three times, with bears finally closing with a slight 1.15x advantage. The 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeded $4.12 million, with a concentration of only 60.5%, and the short squeeze momentum completely exhausted...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $172,500 $17,700 $154,700
4 hours $1,112,400 $884,900 $227,400
12 hours $2,495,800 $1,472,600 $1,023,200
24 hours $4,122,900 $1,913,500 $2,209,400
In 1 hour, bears dominated with an 8.7x control, amounting to $154,700; in 4 hours, bulls reversed with 3.89x, surging to $884,900; in 12 hours, bull advantage sharply dropped to 1.44x, amounting to $1,472,600; in 24 hours, bears narrowly reversed with 1.15x, liquidations at $2,209,400 vs. bulls $1,913,500, totaling $4,122,900. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for 60.5% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Direction switched three times, bull multiples collapsed from 3.89x to a slight 1.15x bear reversal, short squeeze momentum fully exhausted, bulls and bears returned to balance, direction extremely unstable. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, favoring more longs with less trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stand still amid a surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Bears’ $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability in Doubt
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally is macroeconomic. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury’s expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Bears suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, ongoing spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels sanctioned.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Stands Still: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or holding steady at current prices will be an important reference for the market’s judgment on Bitcoin’s short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. $HYPE contract direction switched three times, bulls collapsed from 3.89x to a slight 1.15x bear reversal, with cumulative liquidation of $4.12 million, short squeeze momentum fully exhausted. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 The meme halo of SOL might be quietly changing hands. Have you noticed that the new meme coins emerging in the Solana ecosystem recently can't even reach a $50 million market cap? When I checked the on-chain data yesterday, I felt a jolt. PUMP has indeed surged several times from the bottom, looking lively, but that kind of liveliness feels more like fireworks—bright but fleeting. The ceiling for new coins is getting lower and lower, and with copy trading and wallet tracking tools squeezing everyone's entries and exits into the same lane, stampedes have become routine. This reminds me of the late bull market on BSC—prosperous on the surface but crowded inside. What is the market actually trading now? I think it's a "shift in risk appetite." When the odds for meme coins worsen, capital won't wait around; it flows to places with less resistance. Although ETH is slow, the continuous inflow from ETFs and the steady output of infrastructure projects in its ecosystem provide a kind of "certainty premium." During emotional downturns, certainty is more valuable than explosive potential. My own position adjustment strategy is as follows: - For SOL exposure, I prefer to hold PUMP and PENGU, which have community foundations, rather than chasing new coins. - For ETH, I pay more attention to its role as a "capital receiving pool," especially when the altcoin season is expected to heat up, as its beta characteristics are more stable. The bullish logic is also clear: if Solana's speculative heat continues to cool, ETH's institutional funds and ecosystem narrative will absorb this overflow. The risk lies in, if BT $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Profit-taking pressure is rising
$BTC breaking above $80K and $ETH surpassing $2.5K triggered profit-taking, causing both to pull back from recent highs. However, ETF fund flows remain a key highlight, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting about $1.92 billion and Ethereum ETFs about $697 million in the past week — the strongest weekly inflows since 2026.
In my view, this pullback looks more like profit absorption after a strong rally rather than a confirmed reversal. The key test will be whether ETF demand remains robust when $BTC retests the $79K–$80K range $SOL $ZEC $OKB Why are $BTC and $ETH currently starting to decline slowly? Could it be that they will fall back to the lowest point or even surpass this time's lowest point?
Reasons:
1. BTC just broke through around $80,000 but encountered strong resistance.
The $80,000~$82,000 range itself is an important resistance zone.
The previous rise was too fast, with many short-term profit takers.
In this situation, sideways movement or slow decline to digest chips is very normal.
2. The previous rise was driven by a large number of short liquidations.
The recent rally was accompanied by tens of billions of dollars in short covering.
After the short liquidations end, buying momentum weakens, and the market tends to enter consolidation.
3. Funds have not significantly withdrawn.
BTC ETFs have recently maintained net inflows.
Institutional funds have not shown signs of panic selling.
Strong adjustment: BTC holds the $76,000~$78,000 area - ETH holds recent key support - after a few days of adjustment, it attacks above $80,000 again.
Weakening signals: BTC breaks below $75,000 with sustained volume increase - ETH's decline is significantly greater than BTC's - ETFs start continuous net outflows, then be cautious that the rise might just be a short-term short squeeze.
Personal judgment is that this is more like profit-taking after a rise, rather than a trend reversal. BTC is currently at 78586, I’m making a bet: it will definitely break 82000 this week. This is not a wild guess, it’s based on evidence: spot ETF inflows reached $1.92 billion this week, the highest in 10 months, institutions are accumulating; shorts are crowded above 80,000, once it breaks through it will be a short squeeze; macro liquidity is improving, US Treasury yields are falling, the dollar is weakening; positive policies, Trump met with crypto executives, SEC released regulatory proposals. I’m still holding my long position at 78516, stop loss at 78000, target 82000. Opened with 5000U, 10x leverage, risk-reward ratio 4:1. Resistance at 81266/82000, support at 77705/78000. Not chasing highs, will add near 78000 on pullback, with proper stop loss. Remember: prediction is not important, response is what matters. $BTC#BTC breaking 80000 USD, can it hold the new level As of the morning of 8/26/2026, the Crypto market is in a strong uptrend but is beginning to show profit-taking zones. Notably, this rally is not only driven by speculative capital but is also supported by the story of a weakening USD + declining bond yields + expectations of better liquidity. 📊 Today's overview $BTC: just surpassed 80,000 USD, at one point reaching about 81,200 USD, then retreating to around 79,000–80,000 USD. This is the highest level in about 3 months. $ETH: up about 30% in 5 sessions, indicating capital inflow dr📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions went from extreme crushing to continuous exhaustion, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $13.17 million and a concentration rate as high as 73.2%, forming an inverted V-shaped exhaustion trajectory...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $430,000 $207,100 $222,900
4 hours $4,872,200 $4,252,000 $620,200
12 hours $9,645,400 $8,549,900 $1,095,600
24 hours $13,179,200 $9,617,300 $3,561,900
In 1 hour, shorts slightly controlled the market at 1.08 times, with a volume of $222,900, nearly balanced between longs and shorts; in 4 hours, longs violently reversed at 6.86 times, surging to $4,252,000; in 12 hours, longs expanded to a peak of 7.8 times, surging to $8,549,900; in 24 hours, the long ratio sharply dropped to 2.7 times, with liquidations of $9,617,300 for longs versus $3,561,900 for shorts, totaling $13,179,200. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 73.2% of the 24-hour total, indicating high concentration—longs completed most of the harvesting within 12 hours, adding only about $3,533,800 in the following 12 hours. The long ratio plummeted from 7.8 to 2.7, showing significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum and accelerating return to balance between longs and shorts. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; although the direction is biased long, the strength has significantly weakened, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stay put amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability is in Question
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows that last week, approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, continuous spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of an "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the related processes."
After the sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92 per barrel, WTI to about $85 per barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, recently disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at the current price will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin’s short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifted from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news already priced in"; Strategy paused buying and hoarded $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin neared $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. $ZEC contract longs crashed from 7.8x to 2.7x, with cumulative liquidations of $13.17 million and a concentration of 73.2%. Combined with BTC liquidations exceeding $280 million and ETH over $100 million, the three major coins saw over $400 million in total liquidations in 24 hours, signaling a comprehensive retreat of short squeeze momentum. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 🚨 PROFIT TAKING IS RISING BUT THE BULLISH STRUCTURE ISN’T BROKEN YET
$BTC pushed above $80K and Ethereum reclaimed $2.5K, but both have started cooling off from their recent highs.
After such an aggressive rally, this reaction shouldn't come as a surprise.
The important question is whether we're seeing a healthy pullback or the beginning of a deeper reversal.
So far, the ETF data gives the bulls something to work with.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1.92B last week, while Ethereum ETFs added around $697M. Both recorded their strongest weekly inflows since October 2025.
That matters because the rally isn't being supported by leverage alone.
Short covering may have accelerated the move, but sustained ETF demand suggests real capital is also participating.
🟠 BTC: WATCH $79K–$80K
This is the zone I'm watching most closely.
If BTC retests the $79K–$80K area and buyers absorb the selling, the pullback could simply be profit-taking after an explosive move.
But if this zone breaks decisively and ETF demand starts weakening, the market could need a deeper reset.
🔵 $ETH : $2.5K NEEDS TO BECOME SUPPORT
Ethereum's recent strength has been impressive, but after a huge rally, consolidation is normal.
The key question is whether ETH can defend the breakout area rather than immediately falling back into the previous range.
If it holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
👀 THE REAL TEST
I'm not worried about investors taking profits.
That's healthy.
I'm watching who absorbs those profits.
If long-term and institutional buyers continue stepping in whenever BTC and ETH dip, the market is showing strong underlying demand.
If sellers overwhelm that demand, then the narrative changes.
So for now:
Pullback ≠ reversal.
The market needs to prove that the buyers are still there.
The next few sessions could be more important than the breakout itself.
Watch the ETF flows. Watch $79K–$80K on BTC. Watch $2.5K on ETH.
If those levels hold, this could simply be the market taking a breath before the next move. 📈Many people often fall into "fear of heights delusion" when building positions on the right side, but the essence of right-side trading lies in using controllable wear to bet on a certain trend. Currently, the STH-RP dynamic position is around 70,000, which coincides with a strong multiple resonance support formed by the technical bull-bear transition zone (approximately 68k–70k).
This highly matches my previous analysis of Bitcoin: Bitcoin is currently touching the weekly SMA50 accompanied by a high probability of a 4-hour bearish divergence signal. If it triggers a large-scale pullback, a stable retest of the STH-RP / bull-bear line near 70k would be the perfect right-side entry opportunity. If it breaks below, decisively stop loss (within -10%); holding this level means a major primary uptrend.I expect BTC to pull back in the next 30 days. Reason: Options pain point at 68-72k, sellers are motivated to push the price;
Spot 50k, dollar-cost averaging 2.5k daily, 00 days, earning coins 300k, contracts 250k, options 50k to hedge extreme market conditions, flexible 100k.
Contracts 10x: open short 100k at 78.6k, add 100k if it rises to 81k; open long 50k if it falls to 72k-70k.
Stop loss: short at 83k, long at 69k. Invalid if price holds above 82.5k, then short logic fails. If it breaks below 68k, long position admits defeat.
#OKX Million Planner $BTC trend is as expected, still oscillating at a high level. Same advice: breaking through is difficult, don't chase the highs.
1. 800,000 is both a round number and a psychological double resistance. Heavy selling pressure above, trapped positions and profit-taking waiting here.
2. ETF buying is the main driver, but momentum is slowing. The inflow speed is not as strong as the past two weeks, lacking new incremental funds to take over.
3. Macro environment is dovish, funds are willing to pay a premium for BTC, but all positive expectations are already priced in; an actual rate cut might turn good news into bad news.
4. Altcoins are starting to steal the spotlight, weakening BTC's siphoning effect. ETH, SOL, OKB have been stronger than BTC this week, even ENA and PUMP are stronger than BTC.
5. Whales are divided at 78k. Some large on-chain holders are taking profits; BeInCrypto's monthly report mentioned a "possible 25% correction"—not to scare, but this risk is real.
So again: breaking through 86,000 is very difficult, don't chase the highs Before the Hong Kong stock market opens, the market is more concerned about the movement of southbound funds rather than the rise and fall of the index itself. The true test of risk appetite is the synchronous performance of tech stock ADRs.
1) Price and funds
2) This round of hotspots
Jack Ma increased his stake in Alibaba by over HKD 600 million, triggering a market re-evaluation of Alibaba's fundamentals. Alibaba released a preview of the Qwen 3.8-Flash-Next model, suggesting that its AI capabilities will enter a new phase. The narrative upgrade of tech stocks, combined with the strengthening of ADRs, constitutes a direct signal of rising risk appetite.
3) How I interpret it
The bulls' logic is: Alibaba's AI progress is clear, the founder's stake increase strengthens long-term confidence, and southbound fund inflows reflect a warming sentiment among mainland investors. The bears will focus on: whether Alibaba's placement financing is inflating valuations, and whether the AI model is merely a technical demonstration lacking a commercialization path.
4) What to watch next
If Alibaba subsequently discloses AI application scenarios or releases specific revenue guidance, risk appetite may further rise. If the financing scale exceeds expectations or there is capital outflow, it may trigger a short-term correction. Official information confirmation is still awaited; crypto assets are highly volatile and require independent judgment.
For informational and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risk. $BTC maintains high-level oscillation, with ETF continuous inflows and U.S. Treasury repurchase still supporting liquidity, but chip divergence expands after the sharp rise. Technically, the breakout structure remains intact, and the low-volume pullback is still a strong digestion; if a high-volume drop back to the breakout platform occurs, profit-taking and leveraged funds' coordinated realization should be guarded against.
$ETH funds continue to spread to high-elasticity assets, with spot ETFs seeing consecutive net inflows strengthening demand. The technical structure remains under repair, but chips tend to crowd after a rapid catch-up; a low-volume pullback that holds the trendline is still bullish, but if BTC weakens, ETH's retracement elasticity is usually greater, reducing the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs.
$SKHYNIX HBM demand and AI server expansion still support the mid-term logic, but the union rejected the wage agreement today, putting obvious pressure on the stock price. Technically, it is still a high-level digestion after a strong trend; if it falls back with low volume and the trendline is not broken, it remains healthy; if it loses the consolidation platform with high volume, profit-taking may continue.
$XAU is supported by a weak dollar, U.S. Treasury repurchase, and safe-haven demand, with a strong trend but expanding deviation, so chasing the rise is not advisable; $OKB still focuses on the X Layer ecosystem and scarce supply, with a box breakout needing volume confirmation; $QQQ was dragged down by tech stocks yesterday, and the market is awaiting Nvidia's earnings report. In a high-valuation environment, more attention is on whether heavyweight stocks can reform synergy. If the earnings report fails to drive volume recovery, the index may continue to oscillate at high levels.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 NVIDIA Earnings Preview ⚡ The fate of the three storage giants hangs by a thread 💥
The storage sector just finished celebrating the AI supercycle, but rumors about NVIDIA's new product configurations have stirred market volatility 📉
The market's core concern centers on the Rubin Ultra next-generation GPU: rumors say the HBM memory layers have been reduced from 12 to 8, significantly cutting the memory size per card. After the news spread, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk saw their stock prices plunge ahead of time.
$SKHY Hynix just posted its best-ever quarterly profit but plunged nearly 19% in a single day due to cooling demand expectations;
$MU Micron also dropped over 7%,
$SNDK SanDisk's strong earnings couldn't avoid a correction, falling more than 9%.
An unusual market phenomenon emerged: the better the current earnings, the more decisively funds fled. The panic isn't about current profits but NVIDIA's reduction in memory configuration, implying that AI computing power demand for high-end storage may fall short of previous market optimism.
However, industry differentiation remains clear: high-end HBM capacity is still tight, with scarce orders and tight scheduling. The impact is greater on mid- to low-end supporting memory. Overall, this is a structural market trend, not a collapse of demand across the entire industry.
The final verdict awaits NVIDIA's earnings report and conference call in the early hours of August 27 Beijing time. Jensen Huang's guidance on HBM demand and new product shipment pace will directly determine the subsequent trend of the storage sector.
#英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Today's Storage Information Gap (August 25):
· Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG: Details of the shareholder return plan disappointed the market (Q3 dividend lower than expected, no buyback announced, return rate maintained at 50%), triggering panic selling across storage stocks in multiple markets, with South Korean stocks falling over 3% on August 25.
· SK Hynix $SKHYNIX: The union rejected the temporary wage agreement with 50.08% opposing votes, causing South Korean stocks to drop nearly 7% at one point on August 25; U.S. stocks fell 0.98% in after-hours trading.
· Yangtze Memory: IPO on the STAR Market accepted, planning to raise 33 billion yuan, setting a new record for the STAR Market. Net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2026 is 33.379 billion yuan.
· Micron Technology $MU: Fell sharply by 5.83% to $910.43 on August 24; continued to decline 0.82% in after-hours trading. Q3 revenue was $41.5 billion (a 4x year-over-year increase), with Q4 guidance raised to $50 billion.
· SanDisk: Fell sharply by 6.45% to $1493.12 on August 24; rebounded over 3% on August 25 but fell 1.29% in after-hours trading.
· Western Digital: Fell over 5% to about $435 on August 24; rebounded over 2% on August 25, then fell 0.49% in after-hours trading.
· Seagate Technology: Fell over 6% on August 24; rebounded nearly 4% on August 25, then fell 0.49% in after-hours trading.
· Gigadevice: Dragged down by the sector, A-shares fell over 3% on August 25, then rebounded 4.29% in the afternoon along with Hong Kong storage concept stocks.
The direct trigger for this round of storage stock plunge was Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan falling short of expectations. Storage stocks had already accumulated significant gains, and the market began to worry about the difficulty of "exceeding expectations" in performance and huge capital expenditures eroding future profits. However, institutions like Goldman Sachs believe AI trading is far from over.Ansem proposed on X: On-chain applications that combine social interaction and speculation could reach a trillion-level scale within ten years because real-time visible profits and losses are content. On the numerator side: social monetizes attention, with single-user value capped by advertising prices; transaction-based monetization depends on capital turnover rate, with an upper limit one or two orders of magnitude higher. What is overlooked is the denominator side: attention is free, but principal is not. The information flow user pool roughly equals the entire internet population, while transaction applications only equal those willing to bear principal losses. The sample is also biased: last week Bitcoin rose over 20%, but short positions liquidated about $5.3 billion, and spot ETF net inflows were only $1.9 billion, squeezing weight more than incremental funds. The current activity treated as product strength is largely a byproduct of leverage clearing; Ansem's simultaneous huge floating losses also indicate that visible profits and losses are content, and only survivors have the microphone. The above is a personal viewpoint record and does not constitute any investment advice. This morning, BTC experienced a rapid sell-off. According to on-chain data, after the rebound, some short-term profit-taking whales transferred BTC in large quantities to exchange addresses, signaling profit realization. The SOPR indicator rose, indicating a large amount of short-term chips exiting with profits. Meanwhile, the futures market saw a chain of liquidations, further amplifying the decline, but long-term holders did not sell off on a large scale, and the chip base remains solid.
On the macro level, BTC is closely linked with the US Nasdaq index. US Treasury yields have fluctuated repeatedly, causing renewed divergence in market expectations about the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts. When US tech stocks face pressure and pull back, Bitcoin tends to move in sync. The inflow pace of spot ETF funds has slowed, and incremental buying momentum is insufficient. A market driven solely by futures leverage is prone to pullbacks.
Looking ahead to the coming week, it is highly likely to be a choppy consolidation market, making it difficult to establish a clear one-sided trend. There is obvious resistance above, and key support levels below should be closely watched. If support breaks, the correction will deepen; if support holds, the market will oscillate within a range. Currently, market divergence is significant, so heavy positions chasing rallies are not advisable. It is best to avoid high leverage, keep cash on hand to cope with fluctuations, and patiently wait for sufficient chip exchange to complete. 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Direction switched three times, shorts went from extreme dominance to being reversed by longs at 13,500x leverage, with longs finally closing weakly at only 2.54x. Total volume was less than $10,000, indicating extremely low liquidity and an invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $0.45 $0 $0.45
4 hours $6,077.01 $6,076.56 $0.45
12 hours $6,581.04 $6,453.22 $127.83
24 hours $9,258.99 $6,640.92 $2,618.07
1-hour short dominance (longs zero), volume only $0.45, an invalid scale; 4-hour longs violently reversed at 13,500x leverage, volume surged to $6,100; 12-hour longs sharply dropped to 50x, volume slightly rose to $6,500; 24-hour longs only 2.54x, liquidation $6,640.92 vs shorts $2,618.07, total $9,258.99. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 71% of 24-hour total, concentration medium-high. Long leverage collapsed from extreme 13,500x to 2.54x, short squeeze momentum completely exhausted, combined with total daily volume under $10,000, no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; this coin has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, while the largest Bitcoin holding company remains inactive amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability in Doubt
On August 25 during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally is macroeconomic. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, ongoing spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels sanctioned.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. The reason is the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; sanctions mark the end of the military phase and shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Stands Still: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed it did not buy Bitcoin from August 17 to 23, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company held $5.1 billion in USD reserves and an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or holding steady at current prices will be an important reference for market judgment on Bitcoin's short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. $CORE contract liquidations total less than $10,000 for the day, indicating extremely low liquidity and invalid market, sharply contrasting with massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $ETH vs $BTC: Same Market, Different Structure
$BTC broke above $80K before pulling back, while $ETH rallied but remains vulnerable near $2.5K. The key difference is capital structure: Bitcoin benefits from stronger institutional and ETF demand, while Ethereum faces more leverage-driven volatility and selling.
Don’t assume ETH will react like BTC. Watch the ETH/BTC ratio: continued weakness signals relative underperformance and suggests ETH may need more time to absorb selling pressure. 🚨 $BTC & $ETH — THE PULLBACK LEVELS MATTER MORE THAN THE NEXT GREEN CANDLE
After the recent explosive rally, Bitcoin and Ethereum are now sitting at levels where I’m watching price action much more carefully.
BTC briefly pushed above $81K before cooling back toward the high-$78K area, while ETH remains around the mid-$2.4K region. At the same time, U.S. economic data has started showing signs of weakness: July new-home sales fell 10.5% to 607,000, while August consumer confidence slipped to 89.4.
That creates an interesting macro setup.
Weaker economic data can push Treasury yields lower and increase expectations for easier monetary policy, which can support scarce assets like BTC.
But there's another side.
If economic weakness becomes strong enough to trigger a broader risk-off move, crypto can still sell off alongside equities and other risk assets.
So I'm not treating weaker data as automatically bullish.
🟠 BTC — WATCH THE $78K AREA
For Bitcoin, $78K is becoming an important short-term reference.
If BTC holds that area and buyers step back in, the recent breakout structure remains healthy.
A reclaim of $80K would then put the market back into breakout territory.
But if $78K fails decisively, I'd expect a deeper consolidation before the next serious attempt higher.
🔵 ETH — MOMENTUM NEEDS TO HOLD
Ethereum has shown impressive relative strength during this recovery, but after such a rapid move, consolidation wouldn't be surprising.
The key is whether ETH can continue forming higher lows instead of giving back the entire breakout.
If ETH holds its structure while BTC stabilizes, that would keep the broader risk-on thesis alive.
📊 MACRO IS THE WILDCARD
This is where things get interesting.
Weak housing and consumer data can support the argument for lower yields and future rate cuts. Treasury yields did move lower following the softer data.
But markets don't simply trade on “bad data = bullish.”
The real question is:
Will weaker growth increase liquidity expectations, or will it trigger a broader flight from risk?Don't mistake this round of crypto rebound as a "liquidity bull" rally—the global central banks haven't loosened at all, and the rate hike cycle is still ongoing. Next week, the European Central Bank will most likely raise rates from 2.25% to 2.50%, driven by the Iran conflict pushing inflation back near 3%.
This is completely different from the market rumors of "liquidity flooding, massive easing, and bull market restart." If you look at the timeline, everyone is shouting about excess money, but the actual policy steering wheel is turning toward tightening, not easing. The recent rise in risk assets is supported by liquidity freed up through fiscal measures like government bond repurchases, which has nothing to do with monetary easing. These are fundamentally different; mixing them up will eventually come back to bite.
This is not to say a drop is imminent, but don't use a flawed logic to bolster confidence in your holdings. $BTC
##Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Jackson Hole opens tomorrow, and this year's theme is surprisingly "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy."
Think about it carefully — for the first time, the Federal Reserve is putting blockchain payments, private dollar tokens, and CBDCs on the central bank's annual meeting table.
But don't get too excited. Since taking office, Waller has cut the FOMC statement from 340 words to 130 words, and he’s too lazy to even give forward guidance. Do you really expect him to paint a big picture at the conference? Most likely it will be "We pay attention to innovation, but financial stability comes first," and then continue to dodge the issue.
What you really need to watch is his full speech at 10 PM on August 28, and whether other Fed officials outside the venue will add their own comments. Capital Economics judges there is over a 60% chance he will only talk about macro issues, but Goldman Sachs warns that off-stage remarks by other officials might be more critical — in 2025, it was Waller and Bowman who set the tone for blockchain at parallel meetings.
If he doesn’t say it, it doesn’t mean others won’t. The agenda will be released on August 27; just see if there is a dedicated session on tokenized payments to know for sure.