Orbit Post Sitemap
BTC holds steady at 78,000, ETH breaks through 2,500, this week really convinced the bears
Brothers, the market this week is pretty fierce.
BTC surged from 62,000 to 79,500, a 23% weekly increase, marking the best weekly performance since March 2023. Today's quote is 78,262, up 1.34% in 24 hours. ETH is even stronger, rising from 1,900 to above 2,520, a 31% weekly increase, breaking through 2,500 today, up 2.26% in 24 hours.
The core driver behind this is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's big move—long-term Treasury repo scale increased from 2 billion to 4 billion. US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed into BTC and gold. Additionally, with Trump pushing the CLARITY Act, shorts being liquidated in a chain reaction, and ETF net inflows of 1.9 billion in a week.
The biggest difference from before is that the correlation between BTC and US stocks has dropped to nearly zero, while the correlation with gold has risen to 0.5, confirming the "devaluation trade" logic.
However, RSI has already reached the overbought zone, so be cautious chasing highs in the short term. My ETH short position is still holding; I plan to see if 2,550 can hold.
Brothers, did you profit from this wave or miss out? Let's chat in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 3. According to the current situation, the United States is basically powerless to reduce the national debt level; the national debt is basically unsolvable. So what will happen next?
Historical experience: The 30-year US Treasury yield breaking 5% has only occurred twice in the past 30 years, in 2000 and 2007, and both times major financial crises erupted afterward. But the "causes" were different each time, and the outcomes were also different.
The key point is the 2007 financial crisis.
This is the most similar case to the current situation. In June-July 2007, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3%, almost exactly the same as the current 5.34%.
In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis officially broke out; Bear Stearns' hedge funds collapsed. In March 2008, Bear Stearns was acquired by JPMorgan Chase.
In September 2008, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, triggering a global financial tsunami.
From the high point in October 2007 to the low point in March 2009, the S&P 500 fell 57%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped from 5% all the way down to below 2% by the end of 2008 (safe-haven funds poured in). The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 0 and started QE.
Global capital is now extremely sensitive, especially to tech stocks, and risks are gradually accumulating. Gold may be the final refuge. From 2000 to 2003, gold rose from 270 to 390 (+44%), and from 2007 to 2011, it rose from 650 to 1920 (+195%). Every time US Treasury credit is questioned, gold is the ultimate beneficiary.
At this time, one must be cautious and prudent The market situation in the past few days has become very clear: the market has indeed strengthened, but it has moved from the "blindly going long" phase to the "verifying the quality of the trend" phase. $BTC has surged from around 63,000 to 79,000, and in your screenshot, it has just reached around 79,300; $ETH is even stronger, jumping directly from around 1,900 to 2,514. This round of rally is not just driven by sentiment; the decline in US long-term bond yields, weakening of the dollar, improved liquidity expectations, combined with concentrated short covering, have created a typical "macro + capital + short squeeze" resonance. In the past few days, the US spot BTC ETF has also seen a clear net inflow again, indicating that institutional funds are indeed returning. But there is a detail that must be noted here: the easiest money to make in the first phase may have already been made. The daily KDJ of $BTC has entered a clearly high level, and the short term is again approaching the 80,000 integer mark; the real key is not whether it can spike to 80,000 tonight, but whether it can hold above it after breaking through. My observation range is $BTC 77,000—78,000: if it holds on the pullback, then it qualifies to continue looking at 80,000—82,000 or even higher; if it quickly falls back below 76,000 after the surge, the part of this rally contributed by "short covering" should be watched carefully. The recent rise indeed includes a large-scale short squeeze, so we cannot simply extend the slope of the past few days indefinitely. Instead, I am now more focused on $ETH. $ETH has again touched around 2,500,Last week BTC rose 23.6%, marking the second strongest single week since early 2021; ETH rose 31.3%; crypto ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $2.62 billion, the strongest since October 2025.
The weekly dollar gain set a record—BTC rose $14,264 in one week, the largest absolute dollar increase in any single week in history.
Three catalysts overlapped in the same week:
The Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repos, with the 30-year yield dropping 9 basis points in one day, and the dollar falling to a three-month low—this was the trigger; Trump convened crypto executives at the White House, publicly pushing for the CLARITY Act to pass before August—this was the narrative; $2.7 billion in short positions were forcibly liquidated—this was the fuel.
The Fear & Greed Index surged from a low to 78, on the edge of "Extreme Greed."
But there is one on-chain signal worth caution: open interest contracts dropped by 42,907 BTC in the same week, down to 319,896 BTC—indicating this rally was driven more by short liquidations than by new long positions being actively opened. The proportion of short-term holders in profit jumped from 26.1% to 74%, while BTC inflows to exchanges increased simultaneously, suggesting potential selling pressure is rising.
Today BTC is around $77,000-$78,000. The January 2026 peak at $94,820 and the all-time high at $126,198—both ceilings have yet to be touched. $BTC Gold hits a three-month high. $PAXG 4,664.8 (+1.32%), trading volume 1.53 million USD, three times yesterday's amount. $XAU also up +1.32%.
The logic remains unchanged: US debt surpasses 40 trillion USD, depreciation trades continue. Last week, gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 28 tons, the highest since January.
My plan in three sentences:
Hold on, but do not add positions.
Reduce the first tranche (one-third to half) between 4,680–4,700.
If it falls below 4,600, liquidate all and don't look back.
Four major events this week: 8/27 Nvidia $NVDA, 8/28 Warsh, July PCE, Iran sanctions. Before these events materialize, I will reduce exposure.
Holding is about holding the trend; reducing positions is about slimming event risk. These two are not contradictory.
Where will you set your first tranche reduction? 4,680 or 4,700?
This does not constitute investment advice.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
The news is true. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will indeed hold a press conference at 2 PM Eastern Time on August 24 (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25) to announce specific details of the "largest financial offensive in history" against Iran.
She herself calls this operation the "Economic D-Day," aiming to cut off "every economic lifeline" of the Iranian regime.
Regarding the impact path, your logical deduction chain holds:
1. Iran has responded strongly: The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned that if the economic war continues, "there will be no more oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz or even the Persian Gulf region."
2. Oil prices and inflation: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices will surge → inflation expectations rise → the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace will be disrupted.
3. Liquidity and risk assets: The U.S. dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, delivering a sentiment blow to risk assets like $BTC.
However, there are also hedging factors currently: oil prices have retreated amid a weakening dollar and declining Treasury yields, and Yellen herself added that "large-scale military action is not expected to be necessary."
On the technical side, $BTC rose from around 60,000 last week to a high of 79,455 USD, an increase of over 20%, with RSI reaching 93, indeed in an extremely overbought state. The news is the trigger, and the technical correction demand is the internal cause — this judgment is reasonable.
Regarding operational advice, the points you mentioned in the article are pragmatic: avoid heavy overnight positions, avoid altcoins and junk coins, and hold only BTC paired with platform tokens as the base position in spot trading. At such a node, the main force is indeed prone to use news to spike and shake out positions.
Additionally, a reminder: Yellen previously stated that the U.S. has seized $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets, indicating that the U.S. has precedent in enforcement in the crypto field, which is also a potential variable.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $SNDK SanDisk Intraday Focus Near 1480 Support
Lightly add a long position first to test and see how it goes 😈
After being resisted near 1630, it quickly crashed, directly breaking through the Bollinger Bands. Technical indicators are collectively bearish (moving average death cross, MACD death cross, volume decline), but RSI is severely oversold, suggesting a short-term rebound may occur.
The storage sector as a whole faces a "deep adjustment demand," with TRS financing costs hitting record highs combined with deleveraging, indicating the industry may have reached a cyclical peak. 1,630 is the mid-term bull-bear dividing line—if the rebound fails to reclaim this level, the adjustment trend will continue.
Be cautious: funding rates remain positive (0.056%), indicating long holders are still paying fees to shorts—this lagging sentiment of "longs not dying" may mean the adjustment is not over yet.
News is bearish
2. News Analysis
1. Sector linkage: Storage stocks collectively weaken pre-market
On August 24, following the decline of Korean storage stocks, U.S. storage stocks also fell collectively pre-market: SanDisk dropped over 4%, Micron Technology, Rambus, SK Hynix fell over 3%, Seagate Technology and Western Digital nearly 3%. The overall weakness in the storage sector is a direct external factor for the decline of SNDKUSDT.
2. Fundamentals: NAND price increase slope slows
SanDisk previously benefited from a surge in NAND flash prices—spring contract prices rose 70%-75%, and the company's gross margin soared from 26.2% to 84.6%. However, TrendForce expects the current quarter's NAND price increase to slow to 10%-15%. The slowing price increase slope means the steepest phase of rapid performance growth may be over.
Additionally, industry research shows SanDisk and Kioxia's NAND technology generations lag behind Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, raising doubts about mid-to-long-term competitiveness.
3. Capital side: Shorts increase positions, deleveraging
· Shorts significantly increased positions: a large address on Hyperliquid increased SNDK short positions from 81 to 3,748 contracts, a net increase of about $5.6 million, with an average entry price of $1,571
· TRS financing costs hit record highs: On August 24, chip and storage stocks reached cyclical peaks, with total return swap (TRS) financing costs at record levels, indicating some gains may be driven by leverage rather than fundamentals
· Castle Investment's reduction in holdings brings supply pressure
The above personal views are for reference only.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $BOME's recent strength in the Solana ecosystem tokens is not due to any major positive news; it's purely internal capital rotation within the meme sector. PEPE continuously attracts funds in the ETH ecosystem, while on the other side, BOME absorbs the liquidity overflow from there. This is a typical sector seesaw effect, with capital switching back and forth between meme tokens on different public chains. From the latest Long-Term Holder Supply In Profit Share (LTH Supply In Profit Share), the profit status of long-term chips is rapidly recovering.
This may no longer be a typical bear market rebound but closer to the early stage of a new cycle, with V-shaped recovery characteristics strengthening.
What requires more caution is: if a market similar to 2019 emerges, how should individuals respond?To start with the conclusion, just three sentences: 1. Keep holding. 2. Do not add positions at this level. 3. When it rises to a key level, reduce positions in batches. Gold price hit a three-month high today. $PAXG current price 4,664.8, intraday +1.32%, 24-hour trading volume 1.53 million U — at this time yesterday it was only 530,000, volume has nearly tripled. $XAU also +1.32%, trading volume 15.45 million U, ten times that of PAXG, liquidity remains the best among all platform gold-mapped assets. In the article I wrote yesterday, I said "Do not chase above 4,600, wait for volume to stabilize above 4,650 before adding." It has risen above 4,650 today with increased volume. I did not add. The reason is simple: between "stabilizing above" and "chasing high" lies a pullback. Without a pullback, I don't have the position I want. Today's rise logic remains unchanged. The engine driving this rally is still the same — the debasement trade. The US debt scale has a new figure today: surpassing 40 trillion dollars. The Treasury is still expanding long-term bond repurchases, the dollar is under pressure, and gold's pricing logic as an "anti-fiat" continues to be reinforced. Last week, gold ETFs had a net inflow of 28 tons, the highest single-week inflow since January, which is solid buying, not futures sentiment. So for the phrase "keep holding," I have no hesitation at all. The mid-term logic is intact, it's not time to sell yet. But there are three short-term things you should be cautious about 1. SanDisk $SNDK has strong support at 1500; if it doesn't fall below, I'll do some trading, probably sideways until the US stock market opens before it drops further.
Currently, the mainstream trend is upward, but technology is clearly under pressure due to US-Canada trade frictions, high US Treasury yields, and geopolitical conflicts. US stocks are down in pre-market trading, including Korean and A-share storage sectors, which are not performing well. Clearly, this storage sector correction is still ongoing #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Bessent Put is gradually forcing out the Fed Put
Bessent wants to use nearly 1 trillion from the TGA to buy back long-term bonds, but this move only raises more suspicion.
The TGA is originally the core buffer prepared for the debt ceiling in the first quarter of next year. Using this money early to suppress yields is like robbing Peter to pay Paul—using ammunition meant for future negotiations to deal with current market pressure.
More importantly, this approach will slowly pull the Federal Reserve deeper into the situation. Since the TGA is held on the Fed’s balance sheet, once its scale is heavily used or needs to be rebuilt later, the market will naturally start to speculate whether the Fed will cooperate or ultimately be forced to intervene. The boundary between fiscal and monetary policy is thus gradually blurred.
What truly suppresses the long end has never been accounting maneuvers, but fiscal discipline itself. Using cash buffers to buy time often just postpones the problem, and makes it worse when it returns $SPCX weakened before the market opened, with the tech sector collectively under pressure, which is worth noting.
Reviewing recent patterns, this stock often experiences a pre-market surge followed by a post-market decline over the weekend phase. This time, the same rhythm was repeated, with the pre-market upward momentum completely absorbed during the trading session.
Not only SPCX, Nvidia also fell synchronously by 2%, and the US tech sector generally weakened. The significant surge in June made many participants optimistic, but now the market is beginning to show signs of pressure.
The ongoing weakness of the US dollar is not a favorable signal for the equity market. There is insufficient incremental capital in the market, and most funds remain cautious. If the downward trend is further confirmed, it could easily trigger a rapid sell-off, amplifying overall market volatility.
Semiconductor-related stocks, including SanDisk, have also been affected by this adjustment. Attention should continue to be paid to the news that Anthropic plans to submit IPO documents by the end of August. The scale of this fundraising is expected to be comparable to SpaceX and will have some impact on market liquidity.
#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #BTC experiences volatility after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #Sandisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus Good evening everyone!
Bitcoin, Sandisk, and SK Hynix belong to two completely different asset categories. BTC is a cash-flow-free crypto asset, while Sandisk and SK Hynix are publicly listed companies in the storage sector. All three are influenced by US Treasury yields and global risk appetite, but their value anchors and cycle logics differ greatly.
$BTC Bitcoin BTC, as the benchmark of the crypto market, sees intermittent capital inflows from spot ETFs, with prices recovering and rebounding amid easing rate expectations. It has no revenue or profit; pricing relies entirely on external capital and consensus, with institutional and short-term speculative funds having divergent demands. Historical resistance from previous holders remains above; this rebound is mainly liquidity-driven rather than fundamental improvement. If inflation data exceeds expectations or rate cut expectations are delayed, the coin price will quickly come under pressure.
$SNDK Sandisk is an independently listed pure NAND flash manufacturer, focusing on consumer SSDs, memory cards, and enterprise flash. It lacks HBM high-end AI storage capacity and mainly benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics and enterprise storage demand. Currently, NAND prices are in a cyclical upturn phase, but industry competition is fierce, and product gross margins are significantly lower than those in the HBM sector. The company has real cash flow from financial reports but lacks the boost from high-growth AI business, making its elasticity weaker than Hynix. Its stock price mainly follows the NAND cycle and consumer electronics demand fluctuations.
$SKHYNIX SK Hynix holds both HBM high-end AI storage and regular DRAM/NAND businesses. HBM4 is accelerating ramp-up in the second half of the year, with many long-term contracts locking in future capacity. Q2 performance was impressive, but the market has started to price in supply pressure from capacity expansion, compounded by cloud providers' capital expenditure expectations causing disturbances. The stock price sharply corrected from highs, followed by a large-scale buyback to stabilize market sentiment. It simultaneously benefits from AI high-growth dividends and faces strong storage cycle risks. Performance is visible, but caution is needed regarding peers' yield improvements compressing product premiums.
In the risk asset rebound window, BTC tracks ETF funds and macro expectations; Sandisk focuses on NAND spot prices; Hynix closely watches HBM capacity release and competitive landscape. If US Treasury yields rise, all three asset types will face valuation pressure. #BTC fluctuated after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in. The 76000-78000 range has been oscillating for three days, and I'm torn about whether to short or not.
BTC has been sideways between 76000-78000 for almost three days. Neither up nor down, no drop, no rise.
The price hasn't moved, and people are going crazy.
Chasing longs? 80000 is a barrier that can't be passed. Opening shorts? What if ETFs suddenly buy aggressively again?
Honestly, I haven't felt good these days either. This round went from 64000 to 79000, up 15000 points, with almost no decent pullback before the sideways movement. Missing out is missing out; chasing hard risks getting trapped, shorting hard risks getting liquidated.
What's even more frustrating is—ETH has already broken 2500, Trump has tripled in three days.
But have you noticed? BTC actually stopped before 80000. ETH is catching up, Trump is soaring, while the leader BTC is sideways. What does this mean? It means short-term funds are being diverted, not working together to break through.
If BTC were really strong, it should have already broken through 80000 directly with liquidity. The reason it's sideways is because the sell orders above are indeed heavy, and bulls need to catch their breath.
I don't recommend opening positions with emotions in this kind of market.
If you're out of position, stay out; missing out doesn't lose money. The urge to short is because the recent one-sided rise was too strong, and short-term indicators are indeed overbought, but the odds for shorts aren't high.
The truly comfortable entry is to wait for it to choose a direction itself—either a volume breakout above 80000 or a pullback to 75000 to stabilize. Entering now is just gambling.
The market isn't short of opportunities; it's short of patience to wait for them $BTC The biggest market change in the past few days is not the BTC rebound, but the gradual flow of funds from BTC to ETH, and then to some high Beta altcoins. The re-entry of ETF funds, improved regulatory expectations after the White House crypto summit, and the U.S. Treasury's long bond buyback releasing liquidity expectations have jointly driven BTC to rebound quickly from lows. Recently, Bitcoin ETF net inflows in a single week approached $1.9 billion, marking one of the strongest performances since last October. Meanwhile, ETH has significantly outperformed BTC in the past week, and the market is beginning to show the typical pattern: BTC → ETH → Altcoins. 1. Launch Radar: Volume and Price Synchronization + Key Level Confirmation $LIT (3.4–3.6 range): 24h gains and volume are expanding synchronously, typical of a launch pattern.
Key observation: Whether it can hold near the recent launch low after volume expansion and continue to rise. If volume shrinks significantly on price pullbacks, it is likely to become a pulse. $PENGU (0.0094–0.0096): 24h gains about 12–15%, volume expanding synchronously.
Key resistance: 0.0100 psychological level (next target around 0.012 after breakout).
Key support: 0.0081 (near 200-day moving average), 0.0073.
With volume and price coordination, holding above 0.0081 is structurally healthier; breaking below may cause short-term heat to fade quickly. $AAVE (135–140): Gains and volume rising synchronously.
Key resistance: Needs daily close above 149.4 for more continuation potential.
Key support: 10 Fidelity Fund Doubles Gold Holdings to the Limit: When Top Managers Question Fed Credibility, the Safe-Haven Logic Completely Changes
George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, doubled his gold holdings in the past three weeks, directly reaching the 5% position limit, and clearly stated that he would further increase it if the dollar's safe-haven status continues to decline. The trigger for this aggressive increase was the panic selling of long-term U.S. Treasuries by global investors after the July Fed meeting.
George bluntly said that the plunge in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects a Fed credibility crisis. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases seems more like manipulating the yield curve rather than solving the deficit problem. Now, the underlying logic of gold trading has completely changed: the market's focus is no longer on the rise in yields itself, but on why yields are rising. When rising long-term rates reflect sovereign credit default risk premiums, U.S. Treasuries lose their safe-haven attribute and instead become a source of risk from fiat currency credit dilution.
Traditional long-term capital like Fidelity buying gold to the limit shares the same underlying logic as crypto capital increasing Bitcoin allocations: both are accelerating the escape from a sovereign debt system with impaired credit and reconstructing the pricing power of non-sovereign hard assets.
Facing the out-of-control long-term U.S. Treasuries and Fed credibility crisis, how do you allocate your safe-haven positions? Between gold and Bitcoin, which do you think can better inherit this sovereign credit migration?
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 It turns out that the 10 addresses associated with bit collectively hold over $323 million in $ETH and $BTC long positions, with unrealized profits exceeding $41.95 million! 🤯
▶︎ ETH long positions: holding 65,977.9684 ETH ($165 million), unrealized profits over $15.08 million
▶︎ BTC long positions: holding 2000 BTC ($158 million), unrealized profits over $26.87 million
This does not even include the $9.897 million profit previously realized by address 0x6c8…d84f6
Who exactly is this powerful entity, financially strong and so early and firmly bullish… $BTC USD falls, ETF buys, shorts buried
1. US Treasury repurchase doubles, suppressing the USD, reigniting depreciation logic, gold rises accordingly.
2. ETF net inflow of 1.92 billion in a single week, BlackRock absorbs 500 million in one day, institutions directly pushing the market.
3. 4 billion short positions forcibly liquidated, a stampede-style short covering boosts a short squeeze rally.
USD falls, ETF buys, shorts explode, three forces jointly pushing the market. Understand the logic, next time there's a move you can profit too.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 When Wall Street begins to reassess the crowded trades in AI hardware, Micron $MU is the first target to be singled out for liquidation. The BofA July Fund Manager Survey shows that 82% of respondents believe semiconductors are the most crowded trade, with no short positions; Renaissance Technologies has already significantly reduced its Micron holdings in Q2. Smart money is retreating, and your short position happens to be on the opposite side of institutional portfolio adjustments — it's following the trend, not going against it.
Trading logic: Currently, MU has fallen from the opening price of 1,010.45 to 931.91, with bearish momentum still releasing (MACD green bars expanding). Operationally, 920-930 is the core support zone; if broken, you can lightly add to short positions, targeting 820-790; if the price rebounds near the 1,000 round number resistance, you can add to short positions with a stop loss at 1,040. However, with 50x leverage, the bottom line is to take profits on at least 60% of the position, and move the stop loss on the remaining position to 970 (below the opening price) to let profits run risk-free.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 The crypto market breaks out independently, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading a separate rally
On August 24, U.S. stock pre-market futures for the three major indices all fell, with Nasdaq futures down 0.73% and S&P 500 futures down 0.22%. However, the crypto market showed a completely different trend—Bitcoin $BTC surged above $77,000, rising about 23% over the past week and breaking out of the trading range suppressed below $67,000 for several months; Ethereum $ETH simultaneously broke above $2,500, with a weekly gain of 31.3%.
This is not a simple short-term divergence. Data shows that the 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has plummeted from about 0.43 last week to nearly zero, while its correlation with gold has climbed above 0.5. After the Fed announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, the dollar weakened, and gold and Bitcoin strengthened in tandem, signaling a return to the "currency depreciation trade" logic.
Bitcoin is transforming from a "risk asset" into an "independent asset class." While U.S. stocks are pressured by tech stock headwinds, the crypto market is carving out its own path thanks to its unique characteristics as a non-sovereign credit asset.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The DEX competition is getting much more interesting.
And $ASTER # is one of the projects I think deserves more attention.
Aster isn't simply trying to be another spot exchange.
Its bigger thesis is around onchain derivatives and competing for the traders who currently dominate centralized exchanges.
That's a difficult market to enter.
Hyperliquid has already shown how strong the demand for decentralized perpetual trading can become.
So the question isn't:
Can Aster become another DEX?Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million coins to 980,000 coins;
while the nearby $62,000 bar shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we deduced in the possible future scenarios on August 21 (see quote): once chips start to loosen, the price will either stabilize or even pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
Now it seems the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
there was a strong wave of profit-taking, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital absorbing the supply here.
Assuming a new chip peak can really form near $76,000-$77,000, do you remember the "double anchor structure" theory?
Long-term followers of mine should be familiar with it. Once this structure forms, the subsequent BTC pullback is very likely to fall in the middle of the structure.
That is roughly around $68,000-$70,000.
So the question is simple: now it depends on whether the $76,000-$77,000 range can form a meaningful chip concentration area.
Yes! This requires a bit of time. August 24th–August 30th Global Macro Guidance: How the Macro + Geopolitics + Interest Rates + U.S. Stocks "Quartet" Guides Market Pricing! The Yen Remains a Potential Risk! This week, from four perspectives—macro data (July PCE), geopolitics (U.S.-Iran situation), interest rates (Waller's speech), and U.S. stocks (NVIDIA earnings)—the pricing logic of macro and risk assets will be influenced, with the quartet constructing a complete macro framework! Global focus determines the direction of energy and inflation expectations—the U.S.-Iran situation or oil price fluctuations. Is the U.S. economy experiencing stagflation or mitigating economic risks?—July PCE will provide a definitive answer. Does the latest data change central bank monetary policy?—Waller's debut at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The final act of the U.S. Q2 earnings season, the overall assessment of the AI industry chain—#NVDA earnings release. The following phases are ranked by their impact on the public: (Ending includes the potential risk of the yen) 1. The U.S.-Iran situation to energy price fluctuations determine global inflation expectations and economic stability! 1) Although the U.S.-Iran situation is normalized, its importance cannot be ignored; once a major incident occurs, significant energy price fluctuations will disrupt this week's macro rhythm. 2) So far, priority is on whether the U.S. will announce the latest economic sanctions on Iran on Monday, including whether secondary sanctions are involved, which concerns the development of the U.S.-Iran situation. 3) Leaders from Middle Eastern countries frequently visit Tehran; Pakistan's top military leader—Munir—has already arrived in Tehran to mediate the U.S.-Iran situation, jointlyToday, S&P 500 futures showed a weak trend, with the September contract at 7673 points, down 0.20%, hitting an intraday low of 7672 points.
The market pressure comes from five overlapping negative factors:
First, Nvidia's earnings report is due this Wednesday, and the market has set very high profit expectations for the AI sector, leading to early risk position reductions by funds; second, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, continuously suppressing valuations of high-growth tech stocks and the overall S&P 500 valuation; third, U.S.-Canada trade talks have broken down, with both sides imposing tariffs on each other, increasing risk aversion; fourth, the Jackson Hole symposium is approaching, and Federal Reserve official Waller's speech will determine the future interest rate direction, with policy uncertainty weighing on the market; fifth, Asian markets have weakened sharply, with South Korea's KOSPI down over 3%, Samsung Electronics plunging significantly, further dragging down sentiment in the global AI and semiconductor sectors.
In the short term, the market is generally bearish, but it is still too early to conclude that the upward trend has reversed.
If after the U.S. market opens, the S&P 500 effectively breaks below key support levels and the Nasdaq's decline further widens, it is likely to trigger a chain reaction of tech stock weakness → index pullback → collective pressure on risk assets across the market; conversely, if futures losses narrow quickly, the current decline is more likely a risk-off move during the earnings window and ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 Web3 / Cryptocurrency Daily Brief｜August 24, 2026④ ETH and Stablecoins｜ETH Outperforms BTC, Payment Adoption Accelerating
Ethereum has clearly outperformed Bitcoin this week, a conclusion that can be maintained. CoinDesk noted in its weekly review on August 22 that ETH rose about 18% over seven days, while BTC increased about 8.8%; during the most intense phase, ETH surged nearly 19% within 24 hours, with short covering being a key driver.
This rally is also accompanied by an accelerated integration of stablecoins into traditional payment systems. Elon Musk's X is exploring paying content creators and influencers with stablecoins; Visa is seeking new stablecoin settlement partners; HSBC and Standard Chartered have completed the first real-time interbank transaction on Swift's 24/7 ledger. A correction to the original statement is needed: it is not simply "Swift completed the first transaction," but rather HSBC and Standard Chartered used Swift's around-the-clock ledger to complete real-time interbank settlement.
ETH's short-term rise mainly stems from risk appetite recovery and market structure changes, but stablecoin payments, bank settlements, and on-chain financial infrastructure expansion are forming fundamental variables worth tracking long-term. If stablecoin settlements continue to grow in the future, on-chain activity, fee revenue, and DeFi capital scale should also be monitored simultaneously. $ETH Text by @OKX星球 @OKX成长学院 @OKX中文 Bitcoin violently surged from $62,500 to $79,500, then pulled back to $77,000; the altcoin season index just hit 67 before turning down, falling back to 44. The divergence between bulls and bears has never been so intense—ETF inflows reached $2.6 billion in a single week, yet major market makers are heavily short.
Many believe this is the start of a bull market, but I want to say it’s still a bear market; the bull market is still far, far away, though the price has risen so much.
Macro: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks will at least double, a policy shift that directly ignited market sentiment.
Capital: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion in one week, setting a historical record.
Trading: The price had been consolidating between $62,000 and $67,000 for a long time, accumulating a large number of shorts. After the breakout, shorts were forced to cover by buying, creating a "short squeeze" spiral that further pushed prices higher. $BTC High-level volatility hides deadly risks! Be extremely cautious about the major risk event at midnight
$BTC is currently consolidating around 77600, the market appears calm on the surface, but there are hidden currents and risks are accumulating📊
Tonight, focus on a critical time window: 2 PM Eastern Time (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25)
The US Treasury Secretary will hold an emergency press conference to announce the launch of the "Economic D-Day" against Iran, essentially initiating comprehensive financial maximum pressure.
If the geopolitical situation escalates further and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, oil prices will likely gap up sharply, and market inflation expectations will rise again.
The chain reaction is very clear:
Inflation rebounds → Fed rate cut expectations cool down → US dollar strengthens → Market liquidity tightens passively, and overall risk assets will be directly pressured and weaken.
Looking at the technical side, $BTC has risen from 60,000 to now, with the 4-hour RSI once reaching an extreme overbought level of 93.
The market has accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions, the technical indicators are severely overextended and urgently need a deep pullback to digest.
Tonight's breaking news is just the fuse accelerating the adjustment, not the sole reason for a market reversal.
A sincere reminder here: absolutely avoid heavy overnight positions tonight, avoid stubbornly holding one-sided positions.
Do not confront the critical midnight window and breaking news head-on, and do not stay up late watching the market or compete with the main players' speed. Institutions have the dual advantage of data and capital; the only protection for retail investors is to control position size and reduce risk.
Especially altcoins and niche tokens, avoid them all tonight.
At such geopolitical risk nodes, the main players love to violently spike prices using news and conduct two-way shakeouts, specifically to harvest funds from trend-following traders. I have suffered many such losses in altcoin markets in the past and fully understand: behind short-term windfall profits lie uncontrollable hidden risks.
Currently, my position strategy is very conservative:
Spot holdings only retain core $BTC positions, paired with a small amount of $OKB as a base hedge against volatility; all other coins are fully out of the market, observing without taking risks.
The market never ends; the real end is when the principal is lost.
Respect the news, respect market uncertainty, stay steady amid high volatility🧊
$ETH
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 The core catalyst accelerating the short positions on $SNXX on August 24 was Samsung's shareholder return plan falling short of expectations—Q3 return amount was not impressive, the buyback plan was scrapped, and the shareholder return ratio was locked at 50% without an increase. JPMorgan bluntly stated "no positive surprises." This directly triggered a collective pre-market decline in memory stocks: SanDisk fell over 4%, Micron dropped over 3%, SK Hynix declined over 3%.
As a 2x leveraged product tracking SNDK, SNXX acts as an amplifier for sector negative news—SNDK spot fell 4%, SNXX targeted an 8% drop. Coupled with the fact that on August 22, just a slight stagnation and pullback in SNDK triggered a chain liquidation and passive deleveraging within SNXX. Short opened at 15.39, precisely positioning for the triple resonance of "Investor Day positive realization (939 billion long-term contract priced in on August 13) + Samsung plan falling short of expectations + internal deleveraging in leveraged products."
Event-driven declines can be sharp but may also reverse quickly. If SNDK holds the 1500-1515 range, a technical rebound may occur. With 20x leverage, the tolerance is only 5%; after floating profits exceed 2.5x, exit in batches without greed for the final segment. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BITCOIN’S BIGGEST INSTITUTIONAL SHIFT MIGHT NOT BE WHO’S BUYING BTC
Bitcoin can rally on institutional demand without every institution buying BTC directly.
ETF inflows are surging, while Strategy just raid $2B without adding a single Bitcoin.
That raises a more interesting question:
Are institutions buying Bitcoinor simply finding new ways to get exposure to it?
The bigger shift may not be who is buying BTC.
It may be how institutions are choosing to play the Bitcoin trade.
#DailyOrbit Has the altcoin season really returned?
$ENA and $PUMP have surged recently, altcoins are clearly heating up, but I think this looks more like capital starting to test high Beta assets rather than a true altcoin season.
The old logic was $BTC rises → $ETH rises → altcoin rotation → all coins flying together.
Now it's obviously different; capital prefers projects with real revenue, users, and catalysts. ENA has stablecoins and yield narratives, PUMP has a trading ecosystem, and HYPE has real protocol revenue.
So the key focus this round is that capital is starting to pick coins. Even if an altcoin season comes in the future, it’s likely that a few strong assets will absorb most of the liquidity rather than all coins flying together.
Next, watch three key signals:
Whether BTC can hold at a high level
Whether ETH can continue to outperform BTC
Whether BTC dominance starts to decline significantly
If only ENA, PUMP, and HYPE keep running wild, I’m more inclined to see it as a risk appetite recovery.
A true altcoin season requires capital to continuously diffuse from the top assets.
My judgment is that the altcoin market may have started to warm up, but the era of blindly buying coins and all coins flying together is very unlikely to return.
Not investment advice, DYOR
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC Real-Time Quotes As of press time, BTC is trading near $77,600, with an intraday high of about $77,778 and a low of about $76,694. After a roughly 23% surge last week, today it mainly consolidated at high levels. ETF Funds On August 21, the most recent complete U.S. trading day, the total net inflow of U.S. spot BTC ETFs was about $307.5 million, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of net inflows; Last week, cumulative inflows totaled about $1.92 billion. This means last week's rally was not just about squeezing short selling; institutional spot funds have already formed continuous support. The latest USDT stablecoin liquidity is about $183.21 billion, an increase of about $200 million from August 17; USDC is about $73.54 billion, up about $1.73 billion from August 17. The main increase in the past week has clearly come from USDC, which has remained basically stable. Compared to the stagnant on-chain US dollar liquidity at mid-month, there has now been a more substantial improvement, consistent with the continuous inflow of ETFs. Futures data: BTC futures open interest is about $54.54 billion, down 2.65% in 24 hours; The mainstream perpetual fund rate remains around 0.01%, with a long-short ratio of about 0.924 for regular accounts, showing an overall bearish bias rather than crowded longs. During the weekend pullback, BTC long positions were liquidated within 24 hours by about $55.82 million. The price then returned above $77,000, and the open interest did not rebuild quickly, indicating that this pullback was more of a move to clear the leverage from chasing gains from a few days ago, which has yet to be releasedWeb3 / Cryptocurrency Daily Brief｜August 24, 2026③ BTC｜The rise is real, but the core is liquidity and short squeeze
Bitcoin’s strong rebound this week is indeed real, but the driving force needs to be described more precisely. According to CoinDesk data, BTC reclaimed the $70,000 level this week and is approaching the $80,000 mark; over $4 billion in crypto short positions across the market were liquidated within two days, creating a positive feedback loop of "short squeeze — price increase — continued forced liquidations." Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury expanded its Treasury repo operations to improve bond market liquidity, serving as a key macro catalyst for the risk asset rebound. Policy momentum is also heating up: Trump urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, CFTC Chair Michael Selig called on staff to prepare a digital asset regulatory framework even if the bill does not pass, the SEC is pushing forward rules related to Regulation Crypto, and the Treasury has begun drafting implementation details for the GENIUS Act stablecoin regulations.
Therefore, attributing this round of gains simply to a single positive factor is inaccurate. A more reasonable explanation is the combined effect of "improved liquidity + rising regulatory expectations + forced short covering." From a trading structure perspective, this type of forced liquidation-driven rally moves quickly, but if there is no sustained net inflow from ETFs and spot buying to follow, a sharp pullback could also occur. It remains important to distinguish between a "trend reversal" and a "short squeeze-style rebound." $BTC @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 $ETH's inner monologue — You chasing the highs and selling the lows is really funny.
I am ETH, currently at 2448. Up less than 1%, and the market is restless again.
At 2087, you shouted "ETH will go to zero"; at 2549, you shouted "Rushing to 3000, super cycle." But from 2549 it dropped to 2380, those who chased the highs got trapped, panicked and sold at a loss, and now at 2448, you're hesitating again.
Actually, the worst thing for the market is emotional swings. There is selling pressure from trapped positions at 2480-2500 above, support at 2400-2420 below, and currently it looks more like a range-bound consolidation.
So don’t chase just because it rises a bit, and don’t panic just because it falls a bit. Before a clear breakout, patiently waiting for direction might be more important than frequent trading.
The above is just personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 Last week, $BTC spot ETF net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the highest since October last year. Net inflows continued for 5 consecutive trading days, with trading volume surging from 6.9 billion to 22.1 billion, tripling. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed 1.3 billion.
More importantly, the Coinbase premium index. This indicator stayed in negative territory for 97 days, setting a historical record for the longest duration, and finally turned positive last week. The spot buying demand in the US domestic market has returned, not just a unilateral rally from the Asia-Pacific market. Some quant traders say this indicator is even more solid than ETF data because it reflects real onshore demand in hard cash.
But on the flip side: in the past three days, 53,000 $BTC flowed into exchanges, mainly short-term holders selling. The tug of war between ETF buying and exchange selling pressure will determine the direction.
My personal conclusion: bullish in the medium term. Continuous ETF inflows + premium turning positive = institutional return. But short-term profit-taking is not yet fully digested, so definitely don’t chase above 78K!!
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Fundamental Research Report $TAO / Bittensor (AI/Compute Power) $237.11 (24h +4.89%)
To put it simply: Bittensor ($TAO) has a composite score of 42/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking it down into three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network has weak usage evidence, and the token's value transmission still needs observation.
Project Overview: Bittensor (token $TAO) operates in the AI/compute power sector. It focuses on a distributed AI network and Subnet incentives. Competitors include RNDR and FET. Traditional compute power rental is dominated by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rental fees ranging from $12,000 to $25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment compute power for bidding, allowing suppliers to avoid centralized audits, turning idle GPUs into available supply. The average customer price is $50–$500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment is in testing or pilot phases, with code progress ongoing; mainnet/product stages depend on the official roadmap. The latest version is v10.5.0, with 9,920 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User Metrics: Monthly Active Addresses (MAU) and Daily Active Addresses (DAU) are undisclosed; 24h trading volume is $252.30M; TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed; supplier income is approximately 80-90% of user fees (distributed to LPs and nodes); protocol treasury income undisclosed; token holder buyback and burn has no annualized burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume represents business flow, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, and protocol profits do not equal token holder profits. Code side: 9,920 valid commits in 90 days, 100 active contributors, latest version v10.5.0. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A); token private and public sales are documented in the whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A); market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs; technical integration is grade B based on API/SDK evidence; strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. Use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token Metrics: Total supply 21,000,000.0, circulating supply 9,597,491.0 (45.7%), FDV $4.98B, next unlock undisclosed (percentage of circulating undisclosed), no clear annualized buyback and burn mechanism. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, with moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (using consistent criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Circulating market cap: Bittensor $2.28B, RNDR undisclosed, FET undisclosed. FDV: Bittensor $4.98B, RNDR undisclosed, FET undisclosed. Annualized revenue: all undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: all undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $2.28B, FDV $4.98B, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic scenario values circulating market cap at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario assumes revenue doubling, burn implementation, and enterprise clients, aligning FDV P/S with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 42/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap is reasonable or slightly undervalued relative to fundamentals; FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol revenue long-term dropping to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key metrics to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassessment is needed.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit🔥OKB surged to 119.69 then pulled back, hovering around 110. Why is the 120 level so hard to break? $OKB
On August 24, OKB was priced at $110.21, down slightly by 0.56% in 24h, with a daily range of 105.58–113.00; from July 24's 81.57 to the August 22 peak of 119.69, it rose 46% in one month, currently showing a typical "high-level turnover after a sharp rally."
In the recent 13 hours of volatility, there was no exclusive catalyst for OKB—CMC clearly pointed out that this 3.05 percentage point fluctuation in OKB mostly followed the broader market: since August 19, BTC rose from mid-60,000s to nearly 80,000, the total crypto market cap increased by about $500 billion in a day and a half, followed by a flash crash and tens of billions in liquidations. OKB, as a high-beta "exchange platform token," was swept up in this, not due to its own news. In other words, the area around 110 is not an independent OKB trend but a reaction linked to the overall market.
The real key is the chip structure:
$70–85: The largest accumulation zone since 2026, a very strong short-term bottom
$100–120: The most important historical heavy lock-in zone since 2025, the current price is stuck here, repeatedly grinding
$120–170: Very sparse chips above; if volume increases and it stabilizes above 120, selling pressure will quickly drop, and the vacuum zone directly targets the previous highs of $142–237 $OKB #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ Folks, Kashkari spoke out today with a very direct attitude — U.S. Treasuries are not malfunctioning, and the Fed won't intervene.
He said the 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4.7%, but market trading and liquidity remain normal. The Fed doesn't need to directly respond to long-end rate fluctuations and should continue focusing on inflation. The implication is that the rise in long bonds is your own issue; don't expect the Fed to come to the rescue.
Meanwhile, the Treasury has already taken action. The liquidity support repo cap for long-term Treasuries from 10 to 30 years has been raised from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4. The 30-year Treasury yield subsequently fell from 5.34%.
But Kashkari's remarks highlight a key point: Treasury repos are mainly for liquidity management and debt optimization, not a prelude to rate cuts or QE. These are two separate operations and should not be confused.
The current debate is whether the rise in long-end yields is due to short-term trading pressure or a structural reassessment driven by fiscal deficits and inflation expectations. If it's the former, repos can stabilize the market. If the latter, this scale of repos can only reduce volatility but cannot suppress rising financing costs.
For BTC, high long-term yields will suppress valuations, but Treasury repos signal a liquidity floor. BTC is likely to oscillate between 75,000 and 78,000 in the short term. After PCE and Jackson Hole events, the direction will become clearer. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP $SNDK SanDisk's strategy today is very on point!!!
The current approach remains unchanged: short on any rebound!
From the current market situation, the overall trend has not shown a clear reversal yet; bears still hold the advantage. Be patient if there is no good entry point, and absolutely do not chase.
Next, focus on the strength of the rebound. As long as a suitable high-level opportunity arises, don't miss out on any profits!!!
The trend hasn't changed, the strategy remains the same, keep waiting to get in on the rebound!!! #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 l$BTC currently hovers in the $75,000–$77,000 range, having previously surged to $78,500; $ETH is holding steadily above $2,300. Recently, the return of spot ETF funds and short closing have provided additional momentum for the market rebound, but funds remain clearly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Looking at the performance of altcoins, $BEAT, $BICO, $KAITO, $LAB, $SNDK, and others still lack sustained volume growth and clear signal of trend reversal, and market risk appetite has not yet fully spread. The latest data shows that over the past week, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw a combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion, with institutional funds returning to the market, but currently more focused on core assets. What truly deserves attention is not a single bullish candlestick, but whether funds begin to spread from BTC and ETH to high-beta altcoins. Before trading volume and liquidity have clearly spilled over, this is more like a BTC-led recovery rally rather than a full-blown Altseason. #BTC #ETH #Altcoins #Crypto #BitcoinETF$LIT smart money has shifted from "halving profit-taking" to a complete exit.
The same swing whale with a leaderboard score of 73 and about 3.1m USD profit in the past 30 days previously sold about 333.6k USD and retained about 367.9k USD in core long positions. Today from 10:57 to 11:08 UTC, it sold the remaining 100,000 LIT, transacting about 343.2k USD and realizing about 101.4k USD in profit.
Official snapshots twice show $LIT holdings reduced to zero with no open orders; the two exits total about 676.8k USD, realizing about 196.0k USD in profit.
This is not a continued reduction in position but a complete exit. BTC surged from 62,000 all the way above 77,000, with a single-week increase of 23%. It is currently consolidating at a high level, and short-term profit-taking faces pressure to realize gains.
The US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days last week, totaling $1.92 billion, hitting a 10-month high. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $1.3 billion, representing solid institutional entry.
This round of the market was ignited by a short squeeze plus a decline in US Treasury yields. Institutions have already started treating BTC as an allocation asset.
78,000‑80,000 is the next major test.
A short-term pullback to 74,000‑75,000 is a normal correction;
As long as ETF funds do not dry up and the weekly line holds above 70,000, the mid-term logic remains intact.
Trading strategy: Do not chase highs, buy on pullbacks, exit on breakdowns, hold for the mid-term, and don’t get shaken out by volatility.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$ETH $BTC 2026Saylor just broke the pattern. 👀
During the biggest Bitcoin move since election week 2024, Michael Saylor bought zero BTC.
That’s unusual.
The last two times BTC had a +20% weekly move, Saylor bought 12K BTC and then 79K BTC into those rallies.
And here’s the bigger picture:
Since July 2024, every major BTC move ended higher 3 months later, with an average gain of around +30%.
So if history is rhyming…
this might not be the top. It might be the setup.
Higher. 📈
#DailyOrbit Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion hits highest since October 2025 Core data: US spot Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion sets the highest weekly inflow record since October 2025. During the same period, Bitcoin price rebounded strongly, once reaching $78,000 last Friday. Notably, just the previous week, Bitcoin ETF was still experiencing net outflows. Within just one week, the fund sentiment reversed rapidly. Fund structure: This round of inflows is highly concentrated in leading ETFs such as BlackRock IBIT, mainly driven by traditional institutional funds rather than retail investors. Ethereum spot ETFs also simultaneously saw capital inflows, indicating overall institutional interest in the crypto sector. ETF overall assets under management and trading activity rose in tandem. Logic behind the inflows: On one hand, the rapid price increase attracts institutions to allocate Bitcoin via ETFs, requiring funds to buy spot BTC, further boosting the price and creating a short-term positive feedback loop. On the other hand, market expectations for Federal Reserve easing have intensified, leading to a preference for risk assets and driving a recovery in crypto asset allocation sentiment. Risks to watch: ETF funds are lagging indicators; large inflows do not guarantee a sustained one-sided rally. If prices pull back, institutions may quickly redeem, causing outflows and suppressing the market. Going forward, it is crucial to monitor whether ETF funds can maintain net inflows and observe changes in macro liquidity. As of 08/24 at 20:40, nearly 1-hour fund flow ranking shows recent 1-hour capital movements.Altcoins have been collectively restless these past two days. Combining the latest on-chain and sentiment data, the optimistic sentiment around altcoins has fully heated up. The much-discussed altcoin season is entering a critical phase of accelerated sentiment release. Two major data points confirm the explosive heat: • Glassnode data shows that currently 85% of altcoin funding rates are above their respective historical averages, setting the highest record since BTC last hit a historical high. The derivatives market's long positions are highly crowded. In a complete altcoin market cycle, such high funding rates can persist for several weeks. • Today's Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 73, just one step away from the peak of 74 in the past year, approaching the sentiment level before the "1011" crash. The entire market has entered the greed zone, with risk appetite continuously rising and funds flowing into the highly volatile altcoin sector. The direction of the altcoin season is determined by the major coins. How far the altcoin market can go still hinges on the trend of major coins, which corresponds closely with the current technical outlook of ETH: ETH weekly chart is clearly overbought, with price significantly deviating from the moving average system, indicating a clear need for a technical pullback; short-term 6-hour and 12-hour MACD show bearish divergence, with bullish momentum continuously weakening. The following two paths will directly determine the lifespan of the altcoin season: 1. Direct pullback and stabilization: a more durable market. ETH falls back to the $2070-2200 moving average support to complete turnover, then stabilizes and enters a narrow range. Major coins face no systemic crash risk, funds will continue to spill over, and the altcoin market will shift from broad gains to thematic rotation, with stronger sustainability. 2. Pump and dump: early end$BTC I did miss out on part of this rally, but I have no intention of chasing the remaining funds all in at the high to make up for it.
Currently, I have converted only about 40% of my originally planned investment into BTC spot. Moving forward to accumulate chips, I mainly use two methods:
The first is selling put options.
I choose positions I was already willing to buy. If the price doesn't drop, I collect the premium; if the price drops, I take on the corresponding long exposure.
The second is a coin-margined grid strategy without market price entry.
When setting up the grid, I don't open positions directly at market price but place orders stepwise below the current price. If the market doesn't pull back, I accept earning a bit less; if the market does pull back, the grid will gradually build positions as planned. If it later enters consolidation, the grid can also accumulate some coin-margined returns.
I believe the current risk is still manageable because only about 40% of my chips have been converted into the target, and there is still some capital that can be invested in batches when the price drops to supplement margin and reduce the overall holding cost. Bitcoin can rally on institutional demand without every institution buying BTC directly.
ETF inflows are surging while Strategy just raised $2B without adding a single BTC.
That changes the interesting question.
The bigger institutional shift may not be who is buying Bitcoin.
It may be how institutions are choosing to gain exposure to it.49.6 million holders crush gold: Bitcoin completes generational surpass, trillion-dollar valuation gap closing
Latest statistics show that the number of adults in the United States currently holding Bitcoin has reached 49.6 million, nearly 21 million more than the 28.8 million gold holders. After five thousand years of historical accumulation, gold has been generationally surpassed by Bitcoin, which has only been around for a little over a decade, in the key dimension of population penetration. Nearly one-fifth of the adult population in the U.S. holds Bitcoin, marking its complete transformation from a niche geek toy to an irreversible, nationwide core asset.
The more critical competition lies in the extremely large valuation gap behind this. In terms of holder scale, Bitcoin has reached 1.7 times that of gold, but its total market value is only about one-tenth of gold's. This divergence, where the user base leads by a large margin but the market value is severely inverted, clearly reflects that the holder group mainly consists of millennials and emerging wealth. As tens of trillions of dollars in generational wealth transfer from the baby boomer generation in the coming decades, combined with the normalization of spot ETFs and pension channels, the transmission of adoption rate to capital density will unleash huge revaluation dividends.
Facing the generational inflection point where the number of holders surpasses gold by 21 million, when do you think Bitcoin's market value can truly catch up with gold? In your long-term asset allocation, do you prefer physical gold or digital gold?
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 The news about Nvidia server price hikes exceeding 15% over the weekend went viral, and many people's first reaction was "AI computing power prosperity continues, tech stocks will keep rising." But today's tech stock performance slapped the market in the face—many sectors plunged directly, tearing apart the "price hike benefit" narrative. This price hike is completely different from the logic in the first half of the year. 1. The essence of the price hike: not a demand explosion, but cost-driven The core reason for this price hike is the soaring price of HBM memory chips. AI servers require 8-20 times more HBM than ordinary servers, and global HBM production capacity is highly concentrated in Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. As the proportion of storage costs rises, even Nvidia, with its high gross margin, cannot withstand the upstream price pressure and can only pass the costs downstream. This is not an active price increase driven by explosive AI demand growth, but a passive increase caused by rising costs in the supply chain. The market interprets it as "continued prosperity," but it actually confuses "tight supply and demand" with "unlimited demand." 2. Transmission chain: from cloud providers to US debt, then to tech stock valuations The most easily overlooked impact of this price hike is on macro liquidity. 1. Expansion of cloud providers' debt scale Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and other cloud providers have been aggressively borrowing to expand computing power. Since 2026, the five major US tech giants have issued nearly $220 billion in bonds, far exceeding the $108 billion issued in all of 2025. Now, with server prices rising another 15%, it means their capital expenditures will continue to increase $BTC stands above the 200-week moving average: Will history really repeat itself?
BTC reclaimed the 200-week moving average this week, one of the most important bull-bear dividing lines in technical analysis. In January 2023, after BTC also stood above this moving average, it rose about 48% within 90 days, pushing from $19,000 to above $28,000, kicking off a nearly two-year bull market.
Now the signal lights up again—BTC started from $60,000, reaching a high of $79,800, with a weekly gain of over 30%. Unlike 2023, this round is supported by fundamentals such as continuous net inflows from ETFs, accelerated institutional allocation, and improved macro liquidity, making the driving logic more solid and not to be simply seen as a rebound.
But precisely because the signal is so clear, the market’s consensus expectations can easily lead to short-term overcrowding of positions. The 200-week moving average is a reference anchor for long-term positioning, not an excuse to chase gains. History will repeat, but not simply replicate. The signal is on; the rhythm determines victory or defeat