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$ZEC DAILY UPDATE | 9.29 ⚠️ Give this daily chart a few seconds... Is ZEC building a real base, or is this simply another relief rally before the next flush? Many traders will look at the pullback and think: “Discounted price = time to buy.” But the current data says patience may be better. A large whale recently moved **25,001 ZEC worth roughly $37.8M** onto the market after accumulating around $425, locking in a very large profit. Another Hyperliquid trader, Boomer, also cut more than $31M in Core drivers of the decline: geopolitical shocks + macro pressure
① Trump rejects Iran's ceasefire proposal (key trigger)
Last weekend, Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without ruling out the possibility of further military action. Brent crude oil immediately surged over 3%, briefly breaking above $108/barrel. Oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → US Treasury yields climb → risk assets come under pressure, a clear transmission chain.
② 10-year US Treasury yield returns above 5.2%
The 10-year US Treasury yield overnight returned above 5.2%, hitting the highest level since 2007. The US dollar index remains near 101, a two-month high. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has reached its highest point in nearly twenty years.
③ Market loses structural anchor after options expiration
The $15.6 billion quarterly options expiration on Deribit on September 25 has completed. Previously, market makers' hedging operations "pinned" the price near $85,000; after expiration, this derivative structural support disappeared, making the price more susceptible to macro news shocks.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.666, top positions long-short ratio is 0.788; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.152; price increased by 0.06%, position value changed by +0.30%. The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
$WLD top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.743, top positions long-short ratio is 0.877; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.282; price increased by 0.54%, position value changed by +0.20%.
$SUI top accounts and top positions are both short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.659, top positions long-short ratio is 0.870; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 1.877; price increased by 0.41%, position value changed by -0.41%.
DOGE, WLD, SUI: overall market account structure is long-biased, which differs from the top position bias.
WLD, SUI: the account number structure and position distribution of the top groups are aligned.$ETH UPDATE | 9.29 ⚡ ETH dipped into the $2.62K–$2.63K area yesterday, then bounced back above the broken triangle structure. The move above $2.70K didn't get enough follow-through and quickly turned into a rejection wick. So for now, breakout confirmation is still missing. Macro pressure remains in play: • Higher US yields = risk-off pressure • Stronger DXY = headwind for crypto • ETF flows remain supportive • Headlines continue driving short-term volatility KEY LEVELS 👇 Support: $2.62K–$2.65KMany brothers have asked me, "Can you just give me a clear entry position?" My answer is: I won't give it directly. If there are 30,000 people in the market, there might be 30,000 different trading ideas. Everyone's capital, risk tolerance, trading cycle, and strategy are different. If you judge that the current price matches your trading logic, then execute according to your own plan. The most important thing in trading is not someone giving you a number, but that you need to know: 📌 why go long here? 📌 Why go short here? 📌 Where is the risk? 📌 If your judgment is wrong, when will you exit? Some people just call for long or short for traffic, but rarely explain the logic behind it. Such a point may not really mean anything to others. Every day I share and record on this planet, also to supervise myself, constantly review, and grow little by little in the market. Trading isn't about following others, but gradually building your own judgment system. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC$BTC around $83.0K.
Lost $84K. Testing $82.8K.
$83.2K failed. Next $80K. Reclaim still $85.2K.
$ETH around $2,660–$2,686.
$2.60K is the floor. $2.77K is dead until a close.
$SOL — around $117–$119.
Lost $121. $117 is the line. $110 if it fails.
Monday was the print. Tuesday is follow-through.
Don’t buy the first bounce. $80K / $2.60K / $110 decide if last week was real.$LAB has dropped 99.8%, and I actually started going long 😂
From over 25 yuan,
all the way down to 5 cents now.
With a drop like this,
any normal person would want to run.
But instead, I’m starting to get a bit itchy to act.
The market cap is only a few tens of millions now,
the trading terminal is still running,
and fee income is still coming in.
Of course, I know about those past issues with LAB.
So I’m not crazy,
just a small position.
I just want to see:
For a coin that’s been trampled to the floor by the market,
is there anyone willing to give it another chance?
Something that’s dropped 99.8%, a rebound would be really interesting 😂
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH $SOL
Tuesday. Still fading.
$BTC around $83.0K.
Lost $84K. Testing $82.8K.
$83.2K failed. Next $80K. Reclaim still $85.2K.
$ETH around $2,660–$2,686.
$2.60K is the floor. $2.77K is dead until a close.
$SOL around $117–$119.
Lost $121. $117 is the line. $110 if it fails.
Monday was the print. Tuesday is follow-through.
Don’t buy the first bounce. $80K / $2.60K / $110 decide if last week was real.*Bitcoin Latest News｜September 30 $84,132 Chinese*
*1. Market: Trap Zone Consolidation*
$BTC currently at *$84,132*, range $83,174-$85,050, 1-hour converging descending channel, resistance at *$83,800 (trendline+MA100)*, support at *$81K-$82K*
Breaking above $85K will squeeze $2 billion shorts aiming for $90K, breaking below $83.5K targets $80,006 → $74K
*2. Liquidations: Double Kill*
24H *$187 million with 81,000 liquidations*, longs $89.9 million vs shorts $97.1 million, stop-loss chasing wiped out
*3. Real Money: Strongest in a Year*
- *BTC ETF weekly inflow $2.4 billion, a 1-year high*, total assets $160 billion
- *SOL ETF $188 million breaks record*
- *Strategy 1665 coins @$85,681*, total holdings 847,666 coins
*4. This Week's Bombshell*
*Nonfarm + PCE on Friday*, #USTreasuryYieldHigh US bond new highs + gold down 3%, whether bearish is exhausted or bullish pending, avoid heavy positions before data
*Operation:* Short at $83,750-$83,890 resistance, stop loss $84,346, target $80,006, expect consolidation before holding $81K.$ZEC longs above 1560 were bloodied down to 1357! Gongming gives you a practical self-rescue plan
The worst pain is not being trapped, but cutting losses at the lowest point and chasing highs during the rebound.
ZEC dropped from 1699 to 1357, your 1560 long was squeezed for 160 points. This wave is a concentrated profit-taking after doubling in September, plus a long liquidation stampede. Near 1357, there are over 17 million long liquidation lines; breaking it triggers a chain explosion. Now it rebounds to 1400, but the trend is broken, don’t bet on a V-shaped recovery.
Rescue plan:
For those with extra funds: Don’t rush to add. Wait for a pullback to 1357-1370 to confirm stabilization, then add a small position to lower the average cost. When it rebounds to 1450-1480, first close the added position, then reassess the base position.
For heavy holders without ammo: When it rebounds to 1450-1480, grit your teeth and reduce by 1/3, then buy back at 1370-1380. Do two rounds of high sell and low buy to lower your cost.
For small funds that can’t hold: Reduce or exit near 1450. There is dense liquidation below; breaking it triggers chain explosions, don’t stubbornly hold on.
Gongming’s view: This wave of ZEC is a profit-taking stampede, not a project problem. But the short-term trend is broken; rebounds are for reducing positions, not for recovering losses. What you need to do is reduce your position to a level you can sleep well, not fantasize about 1560 at 1400. Follow Gongming, bring your position, and I’ll help you figure out how to rescue. #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 Who is exiting, who is waiting for 2400
1574 is the average price at which SanDisk CEO Goeckeler cashed out; 1716 is the price you see right now. He left earlier than you and at $142 cheaper. The people most familiar with the company choose to exit, while the market is still waiting for 2400.
The timeline is ironic: on September 17, he cashed out $53.27 million; five days later, Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a 2400 target. One speaks with real money, the other tells stories with financial models. The directions are opposite—who do you trust?
The macro environment is also unfavorable: the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.23%, the highest since 2007; the probability of a Fed rate hike in October is 64.8%; oil prices have broken $100, and inflation stickiness exceeds expectations. In such an environment, the first to be drained are often the high-valuation chip stocks propped up by AI narratives.
The market situation is also tough. SanDisk rallied from 989 to 1800 and then consolidated for a long time; the MACD red bars have almost disappeared, and all moving averages are pressing overhead. Not falling doesn’t mean it will rise; the longer the consolidation, the stronger the momentum once a direction is chosen.
Those chasing highs and cutting losses only look at price; I only look at logic: chips, interest rates, position. The CEO selling is not a verdict but a warning sign—when the story is too expensive, first ask who is selling.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% *Bitcoin Latest News｜September 30 Chinese Version $84,132*
*1. Current Price and Liquidations*
$BTC *$84,132*, today $83,174 - $85,050
24h liquidations *$187 million / 81,000 people*, long positions $89.9 million vs short positions $97.1 million, both longs and shorts wiped out to deleverage
*2. Real Money Buying, Hits 1-Year High*
- *BTC Spot ETF: Weekly inflow $2.4 billion, hits 1-year high*, full year net inflow +$800 million, total assets $160 billion
- *SOL Spot ETF: $188 million record inflow*, 13 consecutive weeks of inflows, total assets $1.5 billion, supporting $120
- *Strategy: Bought another 1,665 @$85,681*, total holdings 847,666, cost $75,437
*3. Key Decision Zone $81K-$82K LPS*
The line you mentioned: *Hold $81K-$82K → target $90K+, break below → target $74K-$76K FVG gap*
Currently $84,132 stuck in $83.5K-$85K neutral trap, breaking above $85K has $2 billion shorts waiting to be squeezed, breaking below $83.5K means double liquidation of longs
*4. This Week's Focus #PCEAndPayrollsWeek*
Micron earnings on Tuesday, Friday *Nonfarm + PCE* $ETH 9.29 Ethereum Market Judgment
Establish long positions in the 2665-2670 range;
First take-profit at 2702, reduce positions in batches;
Second take-profit at 2730, close all positions;
Stop loss set at 2630, exit immediately if triggered. #GoldBitcoinMarket# #EthereumChain# #ETHWhaleMovements# #Gold#The first time I bought crypto was because I saw a colleague making money.
He said just hold $BTC with your eyes closed.
I believed him and invested a bit, but it dropped right after I bought.
At that time, I couldn't even afford to order takeout.
Later I realized it wasn't the coin's fault, I was just too greedy.
I held $ETH, wanted to sell as soon as it rose a little.
When it dropped a bit, I regretted it, constantly contradicting myself.
To be honest, I just had no own judgment.
Then I tried $SOL, it was scary how fast it moved.
It surged up in minutes, then dropped in minutes.
People with weak hearts really can't handle it.
Now I don't check groups anymore.
I treat trading calls like comedy.
Those showing off profits mostly want you to take over their positions.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts, it's all traps.
I've seen people get insanely arrogant after making money.
Also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
This circle changes three times a day.
So I only use spare money; losing it won't affect my meals.
If I earn, I don't get cocky; if I lose, I don't make a fuss, as long as I can sleep well.
Don't mistake luck for skill.
Don't treat the market like an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the arrogant; I've long accepted that. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 SharpLink Gaming staked another 42,074 ETH today, worth $112.8 million.
In total, this company holds 892,000 ETH, about $2.4 billion, and has earned 27,945 ETH in staking rewards alone, equivalent to $75 million.
This company, which transitioned from gambling, has essentially become a machine that raises funds through stock issuance to buy and stake ETH.
What’s worth noting is not how much it has earned, but that this "publicly listed company hoarding coins + earning staking interest" model is being replicated—it turns ETH staking yields into assets that can be priced on the open market and ties equity with on-chain earnings.Last October, everyone was waiting for an interest rate cut in December, thinking the market would keep rising. But on the 11th, there was a huge crash. Later, when BEAT unlocked, everyone thought it would crash again, but instead it was violently pulled up nearly 60% to harvest profits. Many times, you really have to control your hands. Losing money is because you can't control your hands or your emotions ₿ $BTC | Fluctuating consolidation: BTC is currently trading sideways near $83K, with the market waiting for new catalysts to break out of the range. 🟣 $SOL | Relatively strong SOL remains around $121–122, with short-term relative strength still present. 💰 SOL ETF | Continuous capital inflows Over the past 5 trading days, cumulative inflows have reached about $188M, and the market is watching whether funds continue to rotate into SOL-related assets. 😨 Fear and Greed Index: 74 7-day average 72, 30-day average 67. Market enthusiasm continues to grow, while the risk of chasing higher prices is also increasing. 📍 Key price level BTC support: $82.5K Resistance: $86K SOL support: $116.2 Resistance: $120–124 If this area is effectively broken, the market will further focus on the $140 area. Stay patient and watch for volume and price changes and key support resistance @OKX #DailyOrbit$USELESS Right now this coin is awkward because there's no follow-through on the pump and no support on the dump. The main players either make a strong push to the top to liquidate all shorts at once, or the slowest runners end up in the front row. Let's see which big holder can't resist jumping the gun $MU Micron will release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on September 30. This time, my main focus remains on HBM demand, DRAM/NAND prices, and guidance for the next quarter. The AI market is no longer just about GPUs—⚡ HBM determines the data 💾 throughput of AI accelerators, DRAM supports servers with high-performance computing 🗄️, while NAND/SSD meet the growing storage demands of AI data centers. Micron's Q4 revenue guidance is about $50 billion ± $1 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of about $31 ±1; At the same time, HBM4 has entered a phase of high-volume shipments. More notably, Samsung recently stated that HBM's share of global DRAM wafer capacity may approach 30% next year, up from about 20% currently. This means that while AI memory demand grows, traditional DRAM supply may continue to be squeezed. 👀 So what truly deserves attention in earnings reports is not simply whether revenue exceeds expectations, but rather: HBM demand → DRAM prices → NAND/SSD demand → 2027 guidance If $MU releases stronger signals of AI memory demand, related sectors like $SKHYNIX and $SNDK may also be driven by market sentiment; Conversely, if guidance falls short of expectations, volatility in popular memory stocks may be amplified. AI needs computing power, but computing power is also inseparable from memory. GPUs handle computing, memory feeds data, and storage handles deliveryNVIDIA $NVDAB increases its buyback by $150 billion, raising the total to $235 billion. On the surface, this is to boost market confidence, but essentially it is using real cash to hedge valuation pressure.
The market's concern is not about GPU sales stagnation, but whether the massive capital expenditure on AI computing power can continue. Large model vendors are frantically purchasing chips, but the growth rate of capital expenditure will eventually slow down. Forward PE keeps declining, and the market is starting to price with a cyclical stock logic; relying solely on the story can no longer drive the stock price.
Buybacks can tighten the float and lift EPS. Even if revenue growth slows, performance can be supported by cash flow, turning the AI industry heat into secondary market liquidity.
This move is very smart: model developers are still burning money and struggling to monetize, while NVIDIA, the seller of computing power "shovels," holds a large amount of cash flow to continuously repurchase and retire shares.
However, risks also exist. The buyback plan continues through fiscal year 2028, representing a long-term defensive strategy. If downstream AI applications fail to materialize and major companies cut chip purchases, relying solely on capital operations cannot sustain long-term growth.
At this stage, the $150 billion buyback is enough to prove that NVIDIA holds the largest profit and pricing power in the AI industry chain. #英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Just organized the operational ideas for three targets: two are suitable to follow the plan, one needs further observation.
$BTC is currently around 83,600, with a 24-hour pullback of about 1.5%. It's not untouchable, but don't chase it; waiting for a pullback to buy in batches is more comfortable. The short-term defense is at 82,600 below, with resistance at 84,800-85,000 above. Treat it as consolidation before the Nonfarm/PCE data.
$ETH is around 2,675, with immediate resistance at 2,750-2,800. The Cancun expectations and L2 enthusiasm haven't fully translated into price momentum. If spot/ETF inflows aren't strong, avoid heavy bets before a breakout.
$ENA is stuck in the 0.27-0.29 range, with previous momentum fading and short-term support weak. About 17.2 million tokens will unlock on October 5, creating real selling pressure. We can only wait for volume and structure confirmation; small trials are okay, but no heavy positions.
Strategy: gradually enter BTC and ETH positions, pacing slowly; ENA is high risk, follow only after signal confirmation. With US Treasury yields high and macro data uncertain, being steady is more important than rushing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Your analogy is spot on, *74 is not a peak, it's a temperature*.
*The truth about the number 74:*
The Fear & Greed Index today is *74 (Greed), yesterday was 75*. Many people see 70+ and shout to run, but that's a misinterpretation.
1. *What does it measure:* Volatility (25%) + Volume (25%) + Social media + Bitcoin dominance + Trend. Currently, 76% of the components are price momentum and volume, so $BTC is oscillating around $84,132 with volume still present, naturally it stays high.
2. *It's not a predictor, it's a thermometer:* You're right, the 7-day average is 72, the 30-day average is 67, *the temperature is rising, not cooling down*. This means it's not the false heat from the $86K peak day, but the enthusiasm after $81K-$82K LPS held, with people willing to chase prices.
3. *What does a 74 high mean:* High doesn't mean a drop is coming, it means *those entering now are momentum chasers*. When many chase prices, that's why you see $BTC $187M double blowup / 81,000 people liquidated — everyone chases up and then tramples down at $83,174. The "small drop, big loss" feeling you experience comes from this.
*What really matters is not 74, but the day it turns down:*
Your last sentence is key.
- *Who is still buying when 74 drops to 60?* The ones truly buying now are #BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hitting a near one-year high of $2.4 billion and #$ETH went short at 2782, closed at 2706, and finally made 223U. Unexpectedly, after closing the position, ETH fell back to 2666. The moment I closed the position, I actually felt the market might keep falling. But at that time, I was worried about the profits I had already taken back and chose to exit. Looking back now, it somewhat feels like "returning chips to the market." 😅 Looking back at $UNI: 📈 long at 5.744 🚀, the high reached 10.95 📉 but I didn't choose to exit ➡️ then. Now it has fallen back to 8.59. Sometimes, what really hurts is not the losses, but watching the profits once taken and gradually giving them back. The market has no remedy for regret; trading can only be reviewed. The money you earn doesn't equal the profits you've already locked; next time, it's even more important to exit and manage risks in advance.#anthropic's prospectus may value it over $2 trillion 2 trillion valuation, 42 billion loss, 518 billion computing power bet: How to view Anthropic's IPO
First, look at the books. Last year revenue was 4.6 billion, a 12-fold increase, quite impressive. But operating loss was 8 billion, computing power expenses 7.3 billion, burning 1.6 for every 1 earned. Cash on hand is 20.3 billion, at this burn rate it won't last long.
The real risk is ahead: computing power commitment expenditure for the next few years is 518 billion, 112 times the annual revenue. This is not business, this is betting one's entire fortune on the future.
A 2 trillion valuation corresponds to a 436x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 revenue. To sustain this price, revenue in 2028 must reach 190-200 billion. A 40+ fold increase in three years, do you believe it?
Another detail: nearly a quarter of revenue comes from two clients, and there are no long-term contracts. If clients leave, the story ends.
IPO may be delayed until after the midterm elections in November. My view is simple: this is a classic case of primary market valuation inversion to the secondary market. Institutions bought in at 965 billion, expecting to sell at 2 trillion upon listing. Will you take it?
If you want to bet on the AI narrative, first think clearly about who will pay the 518 billion bill. $ANTHROPIC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ If BTC does not effectively break below $83K and ETH can still hold at $2.6K, then it can still be considered to be within a large range of volatility. Although short-term declines bring pressure, whether a true trend reversal occurs depends on key support, trading volume, and subsequent price performance. Rather than being affected by single-day fluctuations, it's better to remain patient and manage risk well. As for my $PONS, the drop this time was indeed quite steep, which is a bit tough 😂. Other assets are almost returning to previous highs—are you two playing a "seesaw"? 🎢 #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #USIranNuclearTalksGoldman Sachs' roughly $100 billion money market fund FTIXX is now open to institutional crypto companies through LYNQ, running on a private L1 built on Avalanche.
This news is easily underestimated: it’s not just another story of "traditional funds buying crypto," but rather a traditional financial cash management tool running for the first time on a private instance of a public blockchain.
What institutions need is not full decentralization, but an auditable, programmable, and controlled ledger.
The most likely path for tokenization to truly take off is this kind of "private L1 + regulated assets" combination, rather than moving everything onto a public chain.🛢️ Middle East crude exports just climbed back to roughly 80% of pre-war levels
Iran and US officials reportedly met through mediators today to push a ceasefire deal
Iran is waiting on a US response to its proposal — unfreeze Iranian assets, lift oil sanctions, end the port blockade. In return, Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and starts nuclear talks $BTC
Here's the part worth staring at: Hormuz traffic is still only about 62% of pre-war levels
$ETH Can be adapted to a more "breaking news + data analysis" style in Chinese, with a bit of a trading perspective added:
BTC Massive Transfer Breaking News
🚨【Breaking】Strategy transfers 3,568 BTC, valued at approximately $297 million
According to on-chain data, Michael Saylor's Strategy recently transferred about 3,568 BTC, which at current prices amounts to nearly $297 million.
Notably, these BTC were transferred to wallet addresses related to Fidelity's custody system, prompting market speculation: could this be related to over-the-counter (OTC) trading or asset custody adjustments?
⚠️ At present, the wallet transfer alone cannot confirm that Strategy is selling BTC.
If later confirmed to involve large OTC transactions, it may not immediately create direct selling pressure on the market, but for short-term traders, the capital flow remains a key focus.
$BTC's next key points to watch: 1️⃣ Whether these BTC will continue to flow to trading platforms; 2️⃣ Whether BTC price can hold key support and reclaim upper resistance.
Whale transfers ≠ immediate dumping; first, let's see how the on-chain funds move next.📊Tuesday Afternoon Jingyi Gold Strategy Rebound can still be shorted
Gold bulls continue to collapse, after dipping to 4110 yesterday it entered low-level consolidation. The daily chart shows a large bearish candle breaking support, rebound strength is weak, bears dominate the market, no sign of a bottom yet. Previously indicated that after breaking 4200, downside space opened, current key support is at 4100.
Short-term maintain bearish view, but avoid chasing shorts at low levels, the rebound correction phase is not over yet.
4-hour chart: short-term resistance at 4180, strong resistance at 4200-4216, support at 4100. Market is oscillating downward, wait for rebound pressure before choosing short positions, patiently wait for entry opportunities.
Trading suggestion
Short gold at 4160-4180, add shorts on rebound at 4200-4215, stop loss at 4223, target 4100, hold if broken.
$XAU #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Nvidia spent another $150 billion in buybacks, pushing the total to $235 billion. Many people think this is Nvidia's resolve, but it's not that simple—it's just using cash to guarantee its own valuation. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The market isn't worried about graphics cards selling well, but about the massive capital spending big companies are pouring into computing power and suddenly hitting the brakes. Large model vendors have already spent hundreds of billions on chips, so Capex's growth rate can't stay this strong. As the current PE keeps dropping, capital starts discounting it based on cyclical stocks. Just Huang's shout of "AI revolution" on stage can no longer drive the stock price. The most aggressive part of buybacks is directly changing supply and demand and the EPS denominator. With such ample free cash flow, continuously shrinking the circulating market, even if revenue growth drops from a boom to a stable phase, EPS can still be forcefully pushed up. For on-chain and secondary market capital, this essentially turns the heat of AI capital spending into liquidity cushions. This move is indeed clever, directly pulling Nvidia apart from software companies that spend money on large models. Those working on large models are still worried about long monetization cycles and high marginal costs, while shovel sellers have already started mass stock write-offs with real net cash flow. But don't get too carried away. The buyback plan is pushed to fiscal year 2028, which shows this is not a short-term sell-off, but a long-term defensive battle. If downstream AI applications never produce a closed-loop commercial blockbuster, big companies will start cutting chip budgets in a year or two, and relying solely on capital operations won't withstand the collapse of growth logic. But at least for now, Nvidia is using this 1,500 yuanOne third of people are bearish. This number caught me off guard for a moment.
It's not that the price dropped by one third, but that bearish contracts account for such a large proportion of options trading.
Simply put, among those betting real money, one in three is wagering on further decline.
What’s even more painful is another figure. Volatility has dropped to around 35%. What does that mean? People don’t even believe in "big swings" anymore; they quickly sell at the slightest volatility.
Greeks.live puts it bluntly — this looks like a mid-bear market rebound.
I don’t like hearing that, but the data is clear.
Outsiders might think, it’s just a percentage. But think about it, even those betting on volatility are too lazy to bet, how dull must this market be.
To be honest, what’s most feared at times like this isn’t a drop, but that you think it’s the bottom, only for it to be just a halftime breather.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $HYPE The first time I encountered this stuff was while scrolling through short videos.
I saw others showing off their orders, saying $BTC could turn around.
I got impulsive and almost threw in my meal money.
Luckily, I chickened out at the time and only bought a little.
After buying, it dropped, and I cursed myself every day for being reckless.
Later, I held $ETH, nervous whether it would rise or fall.
I couldn't hold on, sold it, and then regretted it—purely self-inflicted pain.
Then I tried $SOL, which was as fast as riding a rocket.
It shot up in minutes and crashed down in minutes.
If you have a weak heart, really don't touch this stuff.
Now I hardly check groups anymore.
Nine out of ten teachers shouting orders want to cut you in.
The profit charts people show off are photoshopped to look more real than real.
Borrowing money to play, going all in, opening contracts—it's all traps.
I've seen people get insanely arrogant after making money.
I've also seen people lose so much they dare not tell their families.
In this circle, friendships turn sour faster than flipping a page.
So I only use spare money; losing it won't affect my meals.
If I earn, I don't get cocky; if I lose, I don't make a fuss. Being able to sleep well is the most practical.
Don't mistake luck for skill, don't treat the market as an ATM.
Living long is more important than making a quick buck.
The market specializes in humbling the stubborn; I've long surrendered. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 The BTC 1H chart confirms price action coiling inside a descending parallel channel, meeting heavy rejection at the confluence of the upper trendline and the dynamic MA100 near $83,800. Declining volume confirms buyer exhaustion against sustained trend pressure. The preferred strategy is to enter a Short position near $83,750–$83,890 with a protective stop-loss parameter placed above $84,346, targeting the lower channel floor near $80,006 $BTC
#USTreasuryYieldHigh
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh $xNVDA $BTC Nvidia officially announces an increase in buybacks, adding $150 billion, totaling $235 billion in buyback authorization, to be executed before fiscal year 2028.
This reflects the cash flow strength of the AI giant, with management expressing optimism about the future in cold hard cash.
But it’s important to distinguish: buybacks are a buffer, not an engine.
Buybacks can improve earnings per share and stabilize market sentiment, but they cannot change the AI demand cycle.
If subsequent capital expenditures and orders from cloud providers fall short of expectations, even with buybacks, the stock price will still face pressure.
Short-term sentiment is positive, but the medium to long term depends on fundamentals being realized.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 Under macroeconomic pressure, the crypto market shows mixed performance
US Treasury yields are rising, becoming a valuation constraint for interest-free assets. The main theme in the crypto market has shifted from "capital inflow" to "macro competition."
$BTC has retreated to the 83,000 USD level, dropping only 0.27% in 24 hours, showing resilience with caution. The 81,500–83,000 range is seen by bulls as an accumulation zone, with institutional buying still providing support; if this range holds, the consolidation pattern is likely to continue.
$ETH is narrowly consolidating around 2,670 USD, down 0.51% for the day, with low volume indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears. Sell walls near 2,669 USD account for 80.3% of the top five order levels, about 2.4 times the buy orders; a short-term rebound must first overcome this selling pressure.
$SOL is relatively weak, down 2.66%–3.73% in 24 hours. The 115–118 USD range is a short-term critical line; if broken, 100–105 USD will become the next focus area.
$ZEC is the most volatile, dropping as much as 12.1% in 24 hours to a low of 1,379 USD. The previous smooth uptrend encountered leverage reduction; no project-specific negative news has been found, making it more like a passive liquidation after crowded positions.
Overall, macro pressure remains, and funds are repeatedly testing key levels. BTC holds the line, ETH faces resistance, SOL is under pressure, and ZEC is deleveraging, forming the current "polarized" crypto landscape.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 CCIP 2.0 matters less as a launch headline than as a test of whether institutional requirements can become repeatable cross-chain activity. Custom validation, compliance controls and configurable settlement target frictions that have limited tokenized assets. The real signal will be sustained usage and fee capture, not a single-day LINK move.
#ChainlinkCCIP2Launch Who exactly should decentralized technology protect?
Satoshi Nakamoto once said:
If Bitcoin is used for money laundering, it could very likely destroy the entire system.
The core distinction lies in that privacy technology protects the legitimate rights of vulnerable ordinary people, not providing hackers with a channel to evade accountability.
This issue is especially sensitive for cross-chain protocols:
Permissionless and censorship-resistant are selling points, but when they become transit points for stolen funds, the protocol’s role shifts from infrastructure to, in a sense, an accomplice.
Decentralization does not equal immunity.In the context of a relatively sluggish Robinhood Chain Meme market, Fables remains relatively resilient, with both daily trading volume and LP fees hitting new highs
- Daily trading volume reached $125 million, with ETH/USDG trading volume close to $98 million; the average daily trading volume per person reached a new high of $17,000
- Daily distributed LP fees were about $280,000, with ETH/USDG LP earning $118,000 and PONS/USDG LP earning $41,000; the average daily LP fee per person was $22.5
- The number of daily transactions also hit a new high, exceeding 57,000
However, Fables' TVL has decreased by about $3.5 million compared to the peak of previous days; meanwhile, the number of new LP addresses has slowed down #财报观察员：Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus
Starting to firmly link $FIL!
Micron's earnings report is near, will AI storage explode? FIL has already moved ahead!
On September 30, Micron will announce its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings, with the market focusing on HBM, DRAM, NAND, and AI data center demand. The expansion of AI computing power is making "storage" an increasingly important infrastructure.
Interestingly, FIL has already shown a clear rebound ahead of time: about $0.84 on September 17, surged to $1.23 on September 27, a short-term increase of over 40%, followed by a noticeable pullback.
The funding logic behind this is worth attention: AI computing power expansion → continuous data growth → increased storage demand → rising traditional storage costs → market re-seeking low-cost, distributed storage solutions → Filecoin's AI storage narrative is being repriced.
Therefore, the significance of Micron's earnings report for FIL is not "Micron rises, FIL must rise," but whether AI storage demand can continue to be validated by fundamentals.
If Micron provides strong AI storage demand guidance, FIL's narrative may be further strengthened; however, FIL has already risen ahead in the short term, so after the positive news is realized, watch out for profit-taking.
Next key points to watch: Micron's AI demand guidance, whether FIL can re-establish above $1.15, and whether trading volume can sustain.₿ When Bitcoin enters DeFi, you don't necessarily have to make every transaction public. One of the biggest problems with traditional BTC DeFi is the high transparency on the chain: every transfer, every position, every move of funds can be tracked by on-chain observers. Starknet's strkBTC is trying to change this experience. 🔹 BTC → Starknet → strkBTC can now transfer native BTC to Starknet through channels like Garden; Garden recently announced support for strkBTC, which can connect to 11+ chains for cross-chain exchanges. After entering Starknet, users can choose to remain public or enable Shielded Mode via Xverse or Ready. 🛡️ Privacy is optional, not mandatory. Once in privacy mode, strkBTC balances and transfer activities are not displayed on-chain as regular public accounts. More importantly, privacy has not diminished BTC's DeFi capabilities: • Endur: Stake strkBTC to obtain xstrkBTC • Ekubo: Provide liquidity • Vesu: Use BTC assets as collateral for lending • avnu: Participate in asset exchanges in the Starknet ecosystem Starknet official systemGood morning! 👋 $MU earnings are tomorrow, and HBM is the key thing I’m watching.
AI demand isn’t just about GPUs—HBM, DRAM and SSDs are all benefiting. If Micron raises its outlook, $SKHYNIX and $SNDK could also get a boost.
AI needs compute, but compute needs memory. That’s the storage thesis. 📈#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #USTreasuryYieldHigh #ChainlinkCCIP2Launch 🧱 Market Structure: BTC remains the core of crypto market liquidity, while ZEC is more focused on niche sectors with higher price elasticity. 🔐 Narrative Logic: BTC represents scarcity and value storage, while ZEC focuses on privacy protection and the development of privacy technologies. 🌪️ Volatility Risk: When market funds begin to rotate toward the privacy sector, ZEC may experience more pronounced price fluctuations. 🎯 Key Observation: If ZEC/BTC continues to strengthen, it may reflect increased market attention to privacy narratives #StrategyBuys1665BTC #ZECNears1700NewHighSummary of $ZEC's continuous decline in recent days
This wave of ZEC dropped from 1695 to a low of 1355, and I happened to be present throughout.
1. Before the bearish news, there were many repeated analyses of the reasons, but why didn't it drop before and is dropping now?
The news says that whale Lee Goon Wang placed a limit sell order of 15,000 ZEC (≈$23 million) on Hyperliquid, about $30 below the market price, directly suppressing the order book. Leveraged long positions were liquidated en masse, and OKX futures open interest dropped sharply by 13.5%. This is not a new short position build-up, but a deleveraging of longs. Also, ZEC has risen over 74% in the past month, with leverage piled up too thick, making a correction imminent.
2. Current outlook
Short-term bearish bias, but the trend reversal confirmation point has not yet been reached.
For this kind of coin controlled by whales and with high beta, the favorite move is:
First, a rebound to shake out short sellers, then a drop to shake out bottom-fishers.
Conclusion:
For coins like ZEC, where the whales place orders, withdraw orders, and set liquidation lines, retail investors are always a step behind.
The information disadvantage is huge; not losing is gaining, earning less is not losing.
Whether long or short: you can forget to cancel orders, but never forget to set stop losses.
(I posted price information in the comments for reference only; feel free to discuss if you have different opinions.)Strategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings for two consecutive weeks: from September 21-27, it spent $142.7 million at an average price of $85,681 to buy 1,665 BTC, bringing the total holdings to a new high of 847,666 BTC. The cost was raised by issuing common stock. The dilution affects shareholders, not the Bitcoin inventory; MSTR is increasingly resembling a leveraged BTC proxy stock. What to watch next is whether the stock price premium can hold, as this will determine how long the route of issuing shares to exchange for Bitcoin can continue.
The average purchase price this week was $85,681, which is over $7,000 higher than last week's $79,670, indicating that Strategy is chasing the rising price rather than buying on dips this round.
In the same issuance, $142.7 million was used to buy Bitcoin, and another $151.7 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares. The latter can reduce the company's future fixed dividend pressure. These two actions are not exactly the same in nature, so don't just focus on the Bitcoin purchase side.
At the beginning of August, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC to raise cash for dividends, and just over a month later, it bought back Bitcoin for two consecutive weeks. The company's cash flow situation is clearly more realistic than the "buy and hold only" slogan.
The above is purely subjective analysis and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 After the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate by a narrow margin of 49 to 50 votes, the SEC and CFTC issued their own guidelines within 48 hours: staking tokens may not be considered securities as long as the issuer does not misuse the underlying assets, and token buybacks may not be securities actions if conducted within an already operational functional system. However, these are FAQs at the SEC staff level, not legislation, and could be rewritten with a change in chairmanship, making them far less stable than congressional legislation.
The above is only a subjective analysis and does not constitute investment advice #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 Last night, the $SNDK fell below $1,700, which was actually not surprising. Pre-market stock prices have already shown signs of continued weakness, and the market had long anticipated this round of decline. It is worth noting that SanDisk was not the only weaker market yesterday; semiconductor-related stocks such as $INTC and $MU were also under pressure. This suggests that this round of correction is more likely related to short-term weakness in the semiconductor sector, rather than entirely a new major negative news for SanDisk itself. From an industry logic perspective, demand for high-performance storage and NAND flash in AI data centers remains a long-term driver worth watching. However, growth in industry demand does not necessarily mean stock prices will continue to rise; valuation, market sentiment, and capital flows are equally important. Next, focus on three directions: 🔹 $SNDK: Whether it can climb back above $1,700 and stabilize above the key price level. 🔹 $MU / $INTC: Observe whether the semiconductor sector shows signs of stabilizing and judge whether this correction is spreading. 🔹 $NVDA: Focus on Nvidia's price movement. As an important indicator of the AI industry chain, its performance may influence the market's risk appetite for the entire AI hardware sector. 📌 Key viewpoint: Currently, it is more important to distinguish between sector-driven pullbacks and deteriorating company fundamentals. If the semiconductor sector stabilizes, $SNDK may see a recovery opportunity; If the sector continues to weaken, even if AI storage demand continues to grow, stock prices may still face pressure. No rush$BTC Currently at $83,520, down about 1.6% in 24 hours. Last week, US spot BTC ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of about $2.39 billion. Institutional funds are still allocating, but growth has slowed significantly—near $900 million in a single day at the start of the week, but dropped to about $130 million by Friday. This indicates that ETF demand still exists, but new buying is not enough to offset macro risk aversion and earlier profit-taking. Currently, BTC perpetual contract holdings are about $2.42 billion, with funding rates remaining slightly positive. The market has not seen significant high-leverage chasing, and short-term sentiment is relatively restrained. $ETH Currently at about $2,695, down about 0.8% in 24 hours. ETH ETFs have also maintained capital inflows recently, with a cumulative size of about $680 million; Perpetual contract positions are about $1.58 billion, with funding rates near neutral, and leveraged funds have not yet accelerated their entry. $ZEC is relatively under pressure, with current prices around $1,548, down about 3.9% in 24 hours. Perpetual contract positions have fallen back to about $180 million, with funding rates still negative, indicating bulls are reducing positions while bears are increasing their bets, with volatility risk clearly higher than BTC and ETH. 🔎 Next, focus on two directions: (1) BTC re-absorbing ETF buying If spot funds accelerate into BTC again and push the price back above $84,500–$85,000, ETH and ZEC may also find room for recovery ② BTYesterday still attracting capital, ZEC today with 1.866 billion volume turning to decline BTC up 0.56%, ETH up 0.52%, mainstream market not weak; but ZEC contract turnover 1.866 billion, down 8.73%, spot also down 8.37%. On the other hand, GRASS surged 31.60%, contract gain and loss leaderboard spread by 43.77 percentage points. Today is not a full market bearish turn, but the old hotspot chips are being redistributed. Contract gain leaderboard 1. GRASSUSDT｜0.7204｜+31.60%｜turnover 70.672 million 2. 0GUSDT｜0.3021｜+22.60%｜turnover 23.0419 million 3. CRVUSDT｜0.3942｜+19.81%｜turnover 58.6142 million 4. NMRUSDT｜12.736｜+17.01%｜turnover 77.1815 million 5. CELOUSDT｜0.10369｜+13.60%｜turnover 2.704 million 6. ICPUSDT｜3.305｜+11.80%｜turnover 23.7051 million 7. KIIUSDT｜0.08845｜+9.63%｜turnover 10.1273 million 8. CVXUSDT｜2.264｜+9.37%｜turnover 843.7 thousand GRASS leads second place 0G by a full 9 percentage points, but their combined turnover is still less than 100 million. CRV and#财报观察员：Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus
Starting to firmly link $FIL!
Micron's earnings report is near, will AI storage explode? FIL has already moved ahead!
On September 30, Micron will announce its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings, with the market focusing on HBM, DRAM, NAND, and AI data center demand. The expansion of AI computing power is making "storage" an increasingly important infrastructure.
Interestingly, FIL has already shown a clear rebound ahead of time: about $0.84 on September 17, surged to $1.23 on September 27, a short-term increase of over 40%, followed by a noticeable pullback.
The funding logic behind this is worth attention: AI computing power expansion → continuous data growth → increased storage demand → rising traditional storage costs → market re-seeking low-cost, distributed storage solutions → Filecoin's AI storage narrative is being repriced.
Therefore, the significance of Micron's earnings report for FIL is not "Micron rises, FIL must rise," but whether AI storage demand can continue to be validated by fundamentals.
If Micron provides strong AI storage demand guidance, FIL's narrative may be further strengthened; however, FIL has already risen ahead in the short term, so after the positive news is realized, watch out for profit-taking.
Next key points to watch: Micron's AI demand guidance, whether FIL can re-establish above $1.15, and whether trading volume can sustain.📉 HYPE fell below 90, BICO dropped 5%, which of these four small coins is holding strong this afternoon?
$HYPE is around 87.53, down 0.81%, let's talk about it first. We've repeatedly said that 90 is the test of its quality—now it really broke. 97% of protocol revenue is used for buybacks, daily trading volume is tens of billions of USD, these fundamentals are real, but the short-term pullback from the high point means funds are withdrawing once 90 is broken. The next observation zone is between 85 and 87, supported by real revenue.
$BICO is around 0.02007, down 5%, the worst performer among the four today. The 7% gain from a few days ago has been fully given back. The key psychological level at 0.02 is being tested; if it breaks, watch 0.018. The long-term logic of this sector is sound, but there is no short-term capital support.
$BEAT is around 0.0905, up 1.85% against the trend, the only one in the green today. A micro-cap speculative coin with a market cap of just over 20 million, volatility is ten times that of mainstream coins, this counter-trend rise indicates some small funds are active. But don’t mistake the rebound for a bottom; it’s normal for this coin to rise one day and fall three days.
$RE is around 0.46, neither falling nor rising. DeFi insurance plus small RWA, market cap of 70 million, daily volume in the millions, the thinnest liquidity. It repeatedly holds around 0.45, the logic is the strongest but liquidity is the thinnest; before institutional funds arrive, it’s just grinding—hold on and wait for the wind.
#BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a near one-year high. Four small coins, four different states: HYPE stabilizing, BICO better not to force, BEAT for small positions, RE hold and wait for the wind.