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Extra Edition Rumor Clarification
⚠️ Only compiling official public information, not constituting investment advice
Recently, the community has been frequently spreading the "COREATM launch schedule." After checking the Core DAO official website blog, @Coredao_Org, and the governance forum: the official side has never named or officially announced any "COREATM" offline machines. All "X month X day public test/mainnet" dates are community creations and have no reference value.
Core's 2026 fiat and offline scenarios follow three verifiable routes:
SatPay (Core×Mobilum Bitcoin New Bank): Global public test in July 2026, collateralizing BTC/LST to borrow stablecoins + co-branded debit card for offline consumption, with fees going into the CORE buyback pool;
CoinsBee integration: CORE exchange for 5000+ brand gift cards/phone credits, forming a real consumption closed loop;
On-chain BTCFi base: BitGo/Copper custody, lstBTC, Dual Staking double staking.
From the industry perspective, in 2026, crypto ATM regulation in Europe and America will tighten sharply. Bitcoin Depot (about 9700 units) filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy and shut down in May, with multi-state limits on amounts and terminal bans. Heavy asset deployment of machines contradicts Core's current "lightweight payment + debit card + revenue buyback flywheel" route, and self-developed ATMs are not an official priority.
Tracking the ecosystem only looks at three types of signals: SatPay public test activation volume and debit card issuance, Hermes upgrade gas buyback execution, and dual staking TVL. Updates are based on coredao.org/blog, forum.coredao.org, and official X. Group chat "ATM countdown" messages are all doubtful.
#CORE #CoreDAO #BTCFi The United States currently faces a rather tricky problem:
Long-term interest rates have risen so high that the Treasury Department has had to step in personally.
A few days ago, Bassett directly doubled the scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, and the 30-year yield briefly dropped quickly from above 5.3%, but the market soon started selling long bonds again. The reason is quite realistic: U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the fiscal deficit continues. Billions of dollars in repurchases can temporarily stabilize the market, but it’s hard to change the fact that long-term borrowing is increasing.
Now the pressure has shifted to the Federal Reserve.
If Waller signals too strong an easing, assets like stocks, gold, and BTC will of course feel comfortable, but the bond market might worry again about inflation and the purchasing power of the dollar, demanding even higher long-term yields. If the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks and high interest rates, long bonds might stabilize a bit, but tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will suffer.
So, the two things truly worth watching this week, in my opinion, are:
Wednesday’s U.S. PCE data and the upcoming Jackson Hole speech.
Especially the 30-year Treasury at the 5% level.
As long as long-term rates hover around 5%, the U.S. government’s interest costs, corporate financing, tech stock valuations, and even liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC and SOL cannot avoid it.
The real question the U.S. Treasury market is asking the government now is quite simple:
If you want to keep borrowing this much money in the future, what interest rate are you prepared to offer so that people are willing to keep lending?#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
Let's discuss the core contradiction in the current BTC market: price surges followed by consolidation, while ETF funds see a significant phase of inflow.
On the market front, BTC briefly surged above $78,800 before facing resistance and pulling back, currently consolidating around the $77,000 range. The price still maintains the high level of this rebound, with short-term bullish and bearish battles intensifying.
From the capital perspective, last week the combined net inflow of US spot BTC+ETH ETFs was about $2.6 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since October last year. Among this, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $1.9 billion, and ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $697 million.
The shift in capital structure is noteworthy: previous rebounds were mainly driven by short-covering, representing a battle of existing funds; however, this round of continuous large net inflows into spot ETFs indicates new incremental capital entering the market. Spot buying is beginning to support the market floor, providing stronger trend support than before.
But risks should not be ignored. Currently, a large amount of unrealized profit positions have accumulated at this price level, and profit-taking pressure at highs can emerge at any time. The key variable for future market direction is the sustainability of ETF fund inflows. If the inflow trend continues, the market is likely to develop a more stable upward trend; if inflows slow or reverse to outflows, combined with the amplified effect of contract leverage, prices will face sharp corrections.
In terms of strategy, it is currently more suitable to track capital signals, cautiously avoid chasing highs, and focus on observing subsequent ETF fund data and the effectiveness of key support levels. $CORE I went all-in on a full margin, but ended up shorting directly. Yesterday, the market rebounded, and I thought, since Core has been falling for so long, it's time for a catch-up rally, right? Thus, warehouses were increased and the market was added. It really did go up, reaching a high of 0.03. I felt pretty happy and thought I finally made the right decision this time. As a result, Bitcoin suddenly retreated, and all altcoins jumped in together. Core plunged from 0.03 to 0.019, dropping over 40% in three seconds and crashing instantly. $LAB was even worse, with the price cut in half and dropping 50%, leaving the whole arena stunned. I usually short every day and rarely go long; just these two long trades were both losing money. It's obvious that the main players are taking the opportunity to sell shares, trying to dump all their shares on retail investors. Last night, $BEAT rose by more than ten points. I went short, took profits automatically this morning, and made back 10U, finally recovering some of my strength. Today, Core dropped another ten points. I kept shorting, and Lab was shorting too. With the altcoin market, it's best to just reset to zero and stop struggling. The lesson this round is straightforward: before the trend reverses, don't buy the dip lightly, especially don't chase long positions at high levels. Core, a highly volatile coin, has obvious liquidity trading characteristics; a single large bearish candlestick can swallow up all rebounds. Although short selling is also risky, at least the direction follows the trend, making stop-losses easier to set. Market sentiment is extremely bad now. As long as Bitcoin is unstable, altcoins become the hardest hit zone, and liquidity collapses at the slightest pull. Next, I will continue to focus on short-term short opportunities in Core and Lab, but I will control my position and never over-invest in betting on directions. The market always has opportunities; being alive is more important than anything else. The core of short-term trading isn't prediction, but response—admitting mistakes and getting them rightThe largest bull in $SNDK has been liquidated and exited, a hedge fund heavily invested in SanDisk and Micron was forcibly closed. This fund had over 56% of its position in SanDisk and Micron — the most aggressive buyers are gone. Now, who will take over the position?
The earnings report looks good, but it's actually a signal to run. The performance is indeed strong, with revenue close to 90 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, and EPS multiplied dozens of times. But guess what? The day after the earnings report came out, the stock price dropped 13% directly. From the June high, it has already halved. The market had long priced in the expectations, so the earnings release means all the good news is out.BTC can finally "earn interest"! CORE Institutional Edition is launched—can it solve the dilemma of idle institutional assets?
CORE Institutional Banking Edition (institutional-grade BTCFi solution) is designed for custodians, asset managers, and digital banks to provide compliant BTC staking, lstBTC liquidity, and balance sheet yield tools. We break down the impact in layers:
✅ Long-term positive value (the real bullish logic for BTC)
1. Solves the biggest pain point for institutions: idle BTC cannot earn interest
Many traditional institutions, family offices, and asset managers buy BTC but can only hold it cold without compliant channels to generate yield.
The institutional edition connects with top custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, supports native BTC time-locked staking without private keys leaving custody, and does not require cross-chain wrapping into WBTC.
Institutions now have a compliant and feasible BTC yield solution, which will increase their willingness to allocate to Bitcoin and attract incremental capital to BTC.
2. Expands Bitcoin asset application boundaries, solidifying the BTCFi narrative
Bitcoin has long been criticized for "only having store-of-value attributes and lacking financial functions."
The implementation of CORE institutional tools means institutions can use BTC as collateral for lending, generate liquidity certificates like lstBTC, turning Bitcoin from a pure "digital gold" into a yield-generating asset that produces cash flow, enhancing Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional financial systems.
3. Changes in capital behavior: reduces spot selling pressure
Institutions holding BTC no longer have only the "sell on price rise" option. By staking to earn continuous yield, some long-term institutions will reduce short-term trading frequency, decreasing spot market sell-offs and improving BTC circulating supply structure in the mid to long term.
⚠️ Key limitations: Why is it difficult to drive a big BTC rally in the short term?
1. Long implementation and transmission cycle
Institutions require months or longer for system integration, internal risk control approvals, and capital strategy adjustments. The launch of version one will not immediately bring large institutional funds to buy BTC. Narrative implementation ≠ immediate capital inflow.
2. BTC price ultimate control is not in the BTCFi track
The core drivers of Bitcoin's mid-term market are: Federal Reserve interest rates, US dollar liquidity, US regulation (CLARITY Act), and ETF capital inflows.
BTCFi is a secondary narrative that can amplify trends but cannot independently drive BTC into a major bull market against macro liquidity conditions. In a tight macro environment, a single ecosystem's benefits cannot reverse the overall market direction.
3. Competition and capital diversion exist
Multiple BTC layer-2 and BTC staking solutions compete simultaneously; institutions will not bet solely on the CORE ecosystem, so incremental capital will be dispersed.
📌 Impact on CORE itself (linked observation)
Institutional staking aiming for higher-tier yields requires pairing with CORE dual staking. This will create sustained CORE buy demand in the long term;
But in the short term, two key validation signals are needed:
① Whether well-known custodians and asset managers officially announce integration with the institutional banking edition;
② Whether on-chain staked BTC volume can continuously increase.
Without on-chain capital growth, news alone is just short-term hype.
📌 Trader practical perspective
1. Before the macro liquidity easing inflection point arrives, do not expect this news alone to drive a unilateral BTC rally;
2. Long-term view: the continuous rollout of BTCFi institutional tools is an important foundational buildup for a Bitcoin bull market, a slowly fermenting long-term logic;
3. CORE's price movement is highly tied to BTCFi hype; follow institutional partnership announcements and on-chain BTC staking data closely.
Risk warning: Content is for industry viewpoint exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and there is uncertainty in technology rollout progress and institutional adoption speed. $BTC$CORE$WBTC#CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFi #InstitutionalCapital Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has issued a major forecast: 1. Debt outlook: Over the next 10 years, U.S. public debt will rise to $55 trillion to $60 trillion. Currently, U.S. public debt has already surpassed $40.05 trillion, setting a new historical high. 2. Asset allocation advice: Investors can allocate 10% to 15% in gold, along with a small amount of Bitcoin, to hedge against debt and currency depreciation risks. 3. Treasury operations: The U.S. Treasury announced that from September 9 to November 4, the maximum single repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds will be increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. How to understand this? 1. The reality of the continuous expansion of U.S. debt U.S. debt has crossed the $40 trillion mark, and Dalio predicts it will continue to surge to $55 trillion to $60 trillion in 10 years. The expanding debt scale means increasing fiscal pressure in the future, raising market concerns: • The government needs to continuously issue bonds to borrow money; • In the long term, this will bring risks of U.S. dollar credit stress and recurring inflation. The Treasury's increased repurchase of long-term Treasuries is to alleviate liquidity pressure on the long end of the bond market and stabilize the bond market, but it also indirectly reflects rising pressure in the U.S. debt market. 2. Why does Dalio recommend gold + Bitcoin? Dalio's logic: As sovereign debt continues to expand, the purchasing power of fiat currency will be diluted, requiring allocation to alternative assets that "resist inflation and hedge credit risk." • Gold: A traditional safe-haven asset, it is a tool institutions have long used to hedge debt crises, recommended allocation 10-Solana recently reduced its mainnet slot target time from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds. When people see the word "faster," many people's first reaction is that TPS has increased again, but I think this is exactly where it's easiest to misinterpret: this upgrade first changes the network's pace and wait times, rather than just stuffing more computation into each block out of thin air. According to Solana's upgrade plan, a slot is a short period during which a validator is scheduled to produce a block. SIMD-0525 plans to reduce the target duration in four steps from 400 milliseconds to 350, 300, 250, and 200 milliseconds. The Block's sampling of mainnet epoch 1020 shows that the time for 1,000 slots has been reduced from about 415 seconds to about 368 seconds, indicating that the first phase has actually taken effect. The epoch, which is fixed at 432,000 slots, will also be shortened from the theoretical 48 hours to around 42 hours. My judgment is that there are two real value points for 350 milliseconds. First, the time users spend waiting for confirmation on the wall will be shortened, and market makers will see status updates more promptly; Second, the time a single block producer can continuously control the sorting window has been reduced from about 1.6 seconds to 1.4 seconds, theoretically reducing the space for a validator to delay or reorder transactions. It's more like increasing the frequency of relay relay relay races, rather than suddenly widening the track. But at a costA whale who has been shorting $BTC for a long time suddenly flipped to going long!
The whale starting with 0x007d has had a BTC contract trading volume of 3.234 billion USD in the past year, mostly short positions all along.
But today, it suddenly changed 😄
In just 2 minutes, it made 11 consecutive market buy orders totaling 242 BTC, worth about 18.8 million USD.
Then it directly opened a 40x full-position long on BTC, currently holding a position worth about 27.29 million USD, with BTC accounting for 82.2% of its entire contract position.
This is interesting.
A long-time BTC short seller suddenly starts heavily going long.
And it’s not a tentative small buy; it’s putting most of its chips on the line.
What exactly did it see?
Of course, it could also just be betting on a rebound.
But if even this long-term short whale starts changing direction, it at least indicates one thing:
The market’s bullish and bearish sentiment might be shifting.
What’s most worth watching now isn’t whether he makes money or not.
It’s—
Could this sudden switch from long-term short to long be a signal of a market reversal?
If BTC keeps rising, this guy might be the one who smelled it early.
If BTC turns down...
Then all we can say is:
After shorting for so long, sometimes you just want to experience the joy of going long. 😂 Haven't talked about $COIN for a long time. With the US stock market closed over the weekend, the token market is unusually quiet. I watched it all night and feel that Friday's big 8% bullish candle on the underlying stock hasn't been fully digested on the token price side; sentiment outweighs substance.
📰 News: The underlying stock surged 8.20% on Friday due to rumors about related legislation, but the CEO himself said the bill is optional. The record Q2 trading volume share is the fundamental support, so the short-term rally seems more like a sentiment catch-up, which I don't fully buy.
🔧 Technicals: On the 4-hour chart, RSI14=48.1 still hovers in the neutral zone, MACD shows a death cross with the green bars continuing to expand. Although the price is above MA7/MA25 and the 7/25 moving averages maintain a bullish alignment, momentum hasn't caught up. This divergence makes me uneasy.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 token only dipped slightly by 0.16%. With the US stock market closed over the weekend, the token price is more of a lagging reaction to Friday's underlying stock movement, with no new liquidity support. Don't mistake sideways trading for strength.
🎯 Today's view: Bearish. The token premium of -0.45% has basically been erased, indicating no one is willing to pay a premium for this gain over the weekend; combined with the daily MACD not cooperating and doubts about the legislative benefits, I tend to think this rebound lacks sustainability.
📊 Token 185.65 (+0.06%) | Underlying stock 186.49 (+8.20%) | Premium -0.45% | US stock market closed over the weekend
#USStockTokens
#CoinbaseStockMovement
#Nasdaq100WeekendMarket $SOL This set of data, I find more interesting than simply boosting DEX trading volume. 🔥
Currently, tokenized stocks on Solana have about $75.4 million deposited in DeFi protocols, accounting for 60.6% of the entire market; although BNB Chain leads in trading volume over the past year, its DeFi deposits are only about $19.4 million.
One reflects "more trading activity," the other reflects "funds willing to stay, continue staking, lending, and generating yield." In terms of asset utilization efficiency, Solana is indeed ahead in this step.
But I wouldn't directly interpret this as an immediate takeoff. SOL is currently around $94, having risen about 25% in the past week; this part of the positive news may have already been traded through once.
In the short term, I see resistance around $96–$100; after a volume-supported consolidation, then look near $102; support is at $91–$92, and if it breaks below and doesn't quickly recover, I won't rush to add positions. 👀
If tokenized stock deposits, ETF inflows, and on-chain activity continue to grow, that would confirm the continuation of the mid-term trend. $SOL fundamentals give direction, price gives entry timing. 🧠$SAMSUNG plummets 8%! Smart money has already positioned ahead, what are you waiting for?
While the market only focuses on "below expectations," smart money quietly accumulates amid the panic.
Samsung announced a record shareholder return plan of 90-110 trillion KRW (about $79 billion), yet the stock price plunged 8%! The market is dissatisfied with the structure: the 50% return ratio remains unchanged, no buyback cancellation, and the remaining 60-80 trillion will only be distributed in January 2027. Eugene analysts directly call it "disappointing."
The stock price dropped 8%, but on-chain data reveals the secret: the long-short ratio is 1.42, longs have an average unrealized loss of only -0.8%, while shorts have a profit ratio as high as 93.65%—this means shorts are crowded, and a short squeeze is imminent.
From a technical perspective, the price precisely retested support at 187 (previous dense trading zone), RSI entered oversold territory, and a bullish divergence appeared on the 15-minute chart. If 187 holds, a retaliatory rebound targets 195-198; if it breaks down with volume, it will test 180.
My view: The "disappointing" news has been priced in, shorts are 93% profitable but have not closed positions, indicating greed. Referencing Q2 2024, Samsung's average rebound in the third week after each "below expectations" event is 12%.
Trading suggestions:
Long: Aggressive traders at current price, conservative traders on a pullback near 184-186
Short: Short near resistance around 198
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 "ETH touched 2500 with volatility, weekly inflow of 700 million can't hide the spot-futures arbitrage"
Ethereum just touched 2500, and the whole network is hyping that the ETF attracted nearly 700 million in a single week.
BlackRock alone pulled in over 500 million, making it seem like the altcoin rally is really coming.
But looking under the hood at the on-chain market makers, they immediately opened 600 million in short positions.
The bulls pushed the contract fee rate to an annualized 15%, and institutions directly bought spot to hedge.
Locking exposure on both sides brings net exposure to zero, steadily collecting hundreds of thousands in funding fees paid by retail every day.
All the pressure above 2500 is from options selling, and the clearing accounts below 2400 have long been stacked. $ETH Walmart's earnings report has stripped the US down to its underwear 🤦♂️
Domestic sales growth is only 2.6%, the lowest in six years, and the stock price plunged 9%. Keep in mind Walmart sells everyday essentials like rice, oil, and salt—if even those can't drive growth, it means American consumers really have no money left—credit card interest rates are outrageously high, mortgage payments are suffocating, and prices remain sky-high.
But what's even scarier is the US debt. Besent has repeatedly stepped in to rescue the market, but it only held for a day; the 10-year yield shot back up to 4.7%, and the 30-year yield surged directly to 5.25%. The market is basically saying: "US debt, I have no patience left."
Right now, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve are like rats in a box bellows—rescuing US debt means suppressing interest rates, which the dollar can't withstand; rescuing the dollar means maintaining tightening, which makes US debt and the economy suffer even more. Both ways are blocked, no matter what choice is made, it's wrong.
So funds are collectively fleeing to safe havens: in the past month, gold rose 12.5%, silver 21%, and Bitcoin climbed 12% to retake 74,000. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin rising together boils down to one thing: the US dollar's credit is being repriced.
Meanwhile, crude oil keeps rising, completely trapping the Federal Reserve—weak consumption calls for rate cuts, but rising oil prices stoke inflation fears, so cutting rates is neither here nor there.
Walmart's earnings, US debt yields, and the gains in gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all telling the same story: US consumers can't hold on, and neither can long-term US debt.
#Walmart #USDebt #USDollar #Gold #Bitcoin #Macroeconomics This time BPI came out to speak, but don't rush to think "US regulators have already decided to do this."
BPI itself represents the interests of large US banks, so from the banks' perspective, it’s not surprising that they want stablecoins to bear higher KYC and AML compliance costs.
What are banks most worried about?
That stablecoins are increasingly like bank money but don’t have to bear the same level of compliance costs as banks.
The crypto industry worries about the exact opposite—if identity verification extends all the way to the stablecoin secondary market, and even to exchanges, custodians, and other links, the original advantages of stablecoins being "24/7, globally freely circulating" could very well be weakened.
So the really interesting part of this isn’t what BPI is saying now.
It’s how banks, the crypto industry, and regulators will tug and pull going forward.
The GENIUS Act only sets up the framework; what really determines the future shape of stablecoins are the subsequent implementation rules.
Seeing BPI’s opinion now should be understood more as:
Banks are fighting for rule-making influence.
Not that regulators have already sentenced stablecoins to death.
This game has only just begun. The core conclusion of today's market is: risk appetite remains differentiated, and the real core variable today has shifted from purely economic data back to the new round of US sanctions on Iran. Although US stocks collectively rebounded last Friday, the S&P and Nasdaq still showed significant declines for the week. Brent crude near $94 and high long-term US Treasury yields continue to limit risk asset valuations. Over the weekend, BTC did not give back most of its previous gains and was still trading around $77,800 as of early this morning, indicating that the relative strength of the crypto market is temporarily sustained. There are few US economic data releases tonight, but at 2 AM Beijing time tomorrow, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will officially announce new measures against Iran, which could directly impact oil prices, the US dollar, US Treasuries, as well as risk appetite for BTC and US stocks. 1. What happened overnight? 1. US stocks rebounded last Friday, but the weekly correction was not reversed. Facts: Last Friday, the three major US stock indices all closed higher: Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98% to 53,277.01; S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 7,674.37; Nasdaq Composite rose 0.44% to 26,180.46. However, from the weekly perspective: S&P 500 fell 1.43%; Nasdaq fell 2.05%; Dow fell 0.85%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq ended their previous three consecutive weeks of gains. Market reaction: Market sentiment clearly stabilized on Friday, with materials, healthcare, and financial sectors leading the gains, and crypto-related stocks performing particularly well. RobinhoodIt was still 25 in the morning, but in the blink of an eye, it dropped sharply from a high position to 22.3. Hynix is really fierce in this wave today.
I ran away before the morning plunge, and now I'm preparing to open another long position.
After reviewing, it feels more like profit-taking after an excessive early rise today, combined with the overall weakening sentiment in the South Korean semiconductor sector. After failing to hold the high, the stop-loss orders further amplified the decline.
The most frustrating thing about this trend is not the drop itself, but the morning session giving you a feeling of a continued breakout, only for the bulls to be trapped and then reversed sharply.
However, Hynix's HBM logic and buyback plan haven't fundamentally changed suddenly, so I won't turn bearish just because of one day’s plunge.
Now it depends on whether the decline can be stopped. If volume shrinks at the low point without hitting new lows, and then rebounds with increased volume, there might be a short-term recovery.
Of course, I'm currently long, so maybe I'm just finding reasons for myself 😂
I'll hold on and see; the market will tell me whether it's a bottom or a trap.That old-fashioned chess piece forgotten by all game records suddenly crossed the entire board within twenty-four hours—$859, a high point enough to make the audience stand collectively, but true connoisseurs only glanced once before continuing to analyze their variations. The ZEC fluctuation is not a random usurpation but a long-planned redeployment of forces.
Grayscale laid that revised application on the table, The Zcash ETF, four words like a silent rook advancing to the seventh rank. ETFs have never been a midgame flash but an endgame foreshadowing. Approval is a referee’s hesitation—it might open this line permanently or turn all prior investments into sunk exchange pieces.
The Ironwood upgrade changed a page in the rules: privacy pools and gate mechanisms give every unit of supply a traceable coordinate, like adding a clear mirror to a hidden chess piece. This isn’t about the gain or loss of individual pieces but reshaping the legitimacy framework of the entire board. You see, Zcash excels at playing in the shadows, and now it actively demands the chess clock to record every move—this is the most elegant form of restraint.
Eighteen percent. The hash power share of Cypherpunk miners is approaching this figure. It sounds like an inconspicuous variation in the opening, but any grandmaster knows that when the opponent’s rook and bishop overlap pressure on the same side, a one-percent deviation can decide the midgame’s direction. Concentrated hash power is scarier than a direct attack; it applies continuous pressure like a chain of pawns on the flank, slowly and steadily squeezing your space.
Now, everyone is asking: Is that promotion called the ETF effective? Is the privacy upgrade mechanism sufficient to support long-term valuation? The $859 pullback—is it an attack or a defensive move? My answer is: Don’t look at the king at that price point—the real throne awaits verification after twenty-five moves. The temporary retreat from the high is just pulling back excess forces into one’s own camp, preparing for that final endgame.
The deadliest move on the board is often the quietest. While the market debates approval risks, the piece protected by 18% hash power has already redefined its attack radius under the new rules. Until the referee’s pen falls, no one can claim the promotion is valid—but a visionary player calculated the bell toll for this moment back in the opening.
So, wait and see. This move is not a check. #zechitsokxhighThis might be a trap that most people haven't noticed.
$BTC surged from $64,000 to nearly $80,000 in just a few days and is currently hovering around $77,000.
Market sentiment has reversed again.
Shorts are starting to stop losses, bulls are beginning to celebrate wildly, and more and more people are shouting:
The bull market is back.
But precisely at this moment, I am becoming cautious.
Because the real core catalyst for this rally has not yet materialized.
The "Clear Act."
September 15th might be a key date to watch closely.
The scenario I currently see might be like this:
Phase One: False Relief
Bitcoin rebounds quickly, a large number of shorts are liquidated continuously, and the market reignites bull market expectations.
In a short time, over $3 billion in short positions were liquidated.
Everyone starts to think:
It can't go down anymore.
Phase Two: The Real Trap
After such a rapid vertical rise, a pullback to $70,000–$72,000 is not surprising.
The real danger is that those who chased at the top, thinking "this time there won't be a correction," might become the next group to be harvested.
What the market loves to do most is to give you a reversal when you believe in the trend the most.
Phase Three: The Critical Point
September 15th.
If the bill is delayed again, or the market believes the chance of passing this year continues to decline, then short-term sentiment may turn again.
At that time, the market could very well face a new round of sell-off.
Phase Four: The Real Test
But if Bitcoin can absorb the negative news, withstand the selling pressure, and reestablish a key position, then the whole logic will change.
Liquidity begins to return.
ETF buying reappears.
The market starts to price in a more favorable regulatory environment ahead of time.
By then, the nature of this rally might be completely different.
Phase Five: The Real Breakthrough
If the bill ultimately advances, and real demand begins to replace the previous short liquidations to push the market higher.
Then this rally could be far more important than it looks now.
I'm not saying the market will definitely follow this script.
I just think this is a possibility that must be closely watched next.
Because after a rise of more than 20% in a few days, the easiest thing to do is to chase the rally.
The real difficulty is to foresee where the next trap might appear.
So going forward, I will not lose all caution just because the market suddenly turns bullish.
September 15th might become a very important date for $BTC going forward.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 A Bull Market Pitfall Avoidance Guide for Newcomers: Understand the Rhythm to Hold Your Chips
Newcomers, don’t rush in just yet, listen to me:
Now is not the time to blindly buy altcoins; the bloodsucking market of BTC and ETH is about to come.
This is not a guess, it’s the fixed script at the start of every bull market.
To be blunt: the short-term peak for most altcoins has already passed. Charging in now isn’t an opportunity, it’s providing liquidity for others.
Let’s take a look at history:
· In the last cycle, BTC rose from 15,000 to 31,000, dominating the market; altcoin market cap share kept falling, and only after BTC’s run did altcoins truly start to perform;
· In the cycle before that, BTC rose from 3,000 to 13,000, and after the main uptrend ended, the altcoin season arrived late.
The pattern never changes: at the start of a bull market, the mainstream coins feast first, altcoins get the leftovers.
Capital flow is always: big institutions enter BTC first, then spill over to ETH, and finally to small coins.
Looking at the current market:
The money pumping altcoins now is all short-term contract funds; spot market isn’t following, long-term holders aren’t locked in, and there’s no volume at the bottom.
So, the safest strategies at this stage are threefold:
1. Don’t dislike BTC’s slow rise; slow is fast, and it’s the most certain;
2. If you want to use leverage, only use it on mainstream coins, avoid miscellaneous tokens;
3. Altcoin season is still early; chasing highs now = standing guard.
The most common mistake newcomers make is disliking BTC’s slow rise at the start of a bull market and rushing to gamble on altcoins to get rich quick, only to find themselves still breaking even after most of the bull market has passed.
Remember: Only by holding the mainstream coins can you wait for altcoins. Get the rhythm right, and the money will naturally come.#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
US-Iran sanctions intensify, raising shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. The market is once again worried about inflation rebounding driven by energy, causing disturbances in interest rate hike expectations.
$BTC｜$76800, resistance at 79100, support at 74000. Geopolitical news easily triggers short-term spikes. In the short term, BTC still follows risk asset logic; rising inflation expectations will suppress risk appetite. Only if the conflict becomes prolonged will the scarcity hedge narrative gradually manifest.
$ETH｜$2440, resistance at 2500, support at 2400, altcoin volatility will further amplify.
Gold benefits from strengthened safe-haven sentiment; however, if oil prices continue to push inflation higher, US Treasury yields will rise, which in turn will suppress the overall risk asset market.
Key focus is on the sustainability of oil prices; if the situation eases, pressure will be relieved; once energy prices remain high and stagnant, the risk of a market pullback will increase.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Samsung's shareholder return plan of KRW 90 trillion to KRW 110 trillion is like a structural elevation drawing with severely over-reinforced load-bearing walls. I stared at the KRW90T-KRW110T range for a long time—this is not a construction error; it's a deliberate settlement joint left by the structural engineer, using annual performance and investment needs as a buffer to prevent shear cracks from forming between shareholder expectations and capital expenditures.
SK Hynix first threw out a KRW 40 trillion buyback and cancellation, and Samsung followed with a long-term contract to return half of its free cash flow. It's like two supertall buildings competing over who has the heavier damper, but the real question is: how deep is your foundation's waterproof curtain wall? The cash flow from AI storage chips is currently the fattest concrete pour section, but the expansion of HBM and advanced node production lines is what determines whether this building can break through the 300-meter vertical structural component. Feeding shareholders with short-term returns while reserving crane swing radius for the next expansion—if this calculation is wrong, at best the core tube will crack, at worst the entire tower will twist and collapse under wind vibration.
The $xQQQ target essentially asks the market: can the AI capital expenditures of U.S. tech giants, like prestressed steel strands, evenly transmit the profit tension of storage chips throughout the beam and column system of the entire industry chain? Samsung and SK Hynix's return plans are essentially stress tests—laying out the free cash flow, the most honest building material inspection report, to see how many processes it can support simultaneously. Dividends are the exterior cladding panels, buybacks are the curtain wall mullions, and HBM capacity is the pile foundation buried deep in the structure. Some analysts only look at the lighting on the podium, but I focus on the red dashed lines of overlapping tasks on the overall construction schedule—the collision of capital expenditures and shareholder returns on the same timeline often predicts the project's outcome better than geological survey reports.
When Samsung says the final scale depends on annual performance and investment needs, it is giving the market a sectional drawing without elevation marks. Experienced cost engineers understand that any promise with a "depends on" hinge node means the load path can change at any time. If AI storage cash flow is truly a dense vein of golden granite, then simultaneously supporting dividends, buybacks, and advanced process R&D is a reasonable framed structural design; but if this cash flow is just a superficially shiny GRC line, then this dual commitment will become the last collapse accident before the building is completed.
Now all eyes are on $xQQQ, treating it as a theodolite to observe AI-memory cash flow visibility. But readings always have errors; the real load-bearing logic is always hidden in the most inconspicuous corner of the drawing—the reserved opening marked for the next expansion cycle, whose size is quietly narrowing with every buyback today. #samsungpayoutupto80b$XAU bullish trend is clear, but short-term caution is needed for the risk of high-level volatility.
If the price does not break below the 5-day moving average during the day, the bullish trend is very likely to continue.
Pay attention to the 4560-4550 support area during the day.
Currently, gold is in a new pricing logic of "US dollar credit hedging" — gold prices and US Treasury yields are rising simultaneously (the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 4.74%), confirming the pricing anchor has shifted from "real interest rates" to "US dollar credit hedging." Kitco surveys show 73% of Wall Street analysts are bullish on the market outlook, with no one predicting a decline.
Key risks to watch in the news:
1. Core driver: US Treasury repurchase triggers "US dollar credit crisis"
The biggest catalyst for this round of gold surge is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's announcement to at least double the repurchase scale of long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years (from $2 billion each time to $4 billion).
However, the market reaction was completely unexpected by the Treasury — after the repurchase plan was announced, the US dollar index fell sharply, once hitting the lowest since mid-May, closing near 98.85. Citigroup quickly downgraded its US dollar index forecast for the next three months from 102.12 to 98.34.
Founder Securities pointed out that the US Treasury's increased long bond repurchase "weakens the upward momentum of long-term yields, combined with weak US economic data suppressing Fed rate hike expectations and US dollar strength momentum." Everbright Futures also believes the core driver has shifted from "declining rate hike expectations" to "US dollar credit impairment."
2. Rising geopolitical risks
· US-Iran situation: The 60-day negotiation window expires on August 18, and Trump announced no extension of the memorandum of understanding. Iran warned that if the economic war continues, oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf region will stop.
· US-Canada trade dispute: The US imposed a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods on Saturday; Canada announced equivalent countermeasures effective September 8.
· Bridgewater Fund's Ray Dalio publicly advised investors to reduce bond holdings and allocate up to 15% of funds into physical gold to hedge against US debt crisis risks.
3. Institutional fund movements
The world's largest gold ETF — SPDR Gold Trust — held 1047.21 tons as of August 21, an increase of 8.28 tons from the previous trading day. The influx of institutional buying indicates rising market bullish sentiment.
4. Key event this week: Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 28)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his first keynote speech — if he signals a clear anti-inflation stance, it may trigger a market repricing of September rate hike expectations. CME data shows a 59.0% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September and a 41.0% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
Technical analysis:
Currently, RSI is near overbought — 69.43 is close to the 70 threshold, indicating a short-term possibility of a pullback; be cautious about chasing highs.
The 4800-5000 range is a dense resistance zone, with 4889 near the last high point before the previous downturn. This area may see significant profit-taking by bulls; those who have not entered should remember to be bullish but not chase the price; pullback opportunities will come.
The above are personal views for reference only.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $xSNDK SanDisk — Profit-taking before Nvidia earnings report, but fundamentals remain intact
SanDisk closed at $1596, dropping to $1563 after hours, with the storage sector collectively pulling back with low volume ahead of Nvidia's August 26 earnings report. This is a typical pre-event deleveraging, not an individual stock issue—Micron and SK Hynix are also under pressure.
Strong fundamentals: Last quarter's EPS was $39.25, beating expectations by 13%, with revenue of $8.96 billion. Next quarter guidance projects revenue of $10.3 billion and gross margin of 83-85%. Eight customers have multi-year agreements locking in $42 billion. NAND prices are expected to rise 61% in the second half of the year. Among 24 analysts, 20 have buy ratings, with an average target price of $2126.
Weekly outlook: Trading range between 1550-1650. Nvidia's earnings report is a short-term watershed—if it beats expectations, the sector will gap up collectively; if it misses, it will retest 1500. The mid-term target remains unchanged at 1800. Last week we asked whether the move was a squeeze. Five straight ETF inflow sessions show that ETF buying continued after the initial squeeze.
US spot BTC and ETH ETFs ended the week with their strongest combined inflows since October 2025:
· BTC ETFs attracted $1.92B across five positive sessions, including $606M on Thursday and $307M on Friday
· ETH ETFs added about $697M, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing roughly $537M
· Combined trading volume reached about $29B, more than triple the previous week
The pattern lasted through all five US trading sessions, but it is not a final verdict on demand.
At Friday's close, BTC ETF net assets stood near $96.1B, equal to about 6.2% of Bitcoin's market value and approaching the $100B mark.
Two details matter:
· Concentration: IBIT captured about $1.33B, or 69% of weekly BTC inflows. ETHA accounted for roughly 77% of ETH inflows. The flows were strong, but breadth remains the next test
· Persistence: BTC ETFs remained about $2.9B in net outflows for 2026, while ETH ETFs were roughly $192M negative
Relative to their asset bases, ETH recorded the higher inflow ratio. Weekly inflows equaled about 4.9% of ETH ETF net assets, versus roughly 2.0% for BTC.
The rally broadened beyond the two largest assets too. BTC recorded its biggest weekly gain since March 2024, while XRP gained nearly 40%.
BTC reached roughly $79,500 on Friday, touched a weekend low near $75,600 and traded around $77,000 on Monday.
The latest completed US ETF session was Aug 21. Aug 24 flow data will follow after the US close.
The next macro test arrives Friday, when Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair.
Which matters more for BTC this week: persistent ETF demand or Warsh's policy tone?
#BTCETFInflowsSurge $xSKHY SK Hynix — Samsung's poor performance highlights SK Hynix, accelerating HBM4 mass production
Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan of 90-110 trillion KRW fell short of market expectations, causing the stock price to plunge nearly 7%. In contrast, SK Hynix's announcement last week of a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation appears more generous, with today's stock slightly rising 0.29% against the trend, showing a clear divergence from Samsung's movement.
HBM4 has officially entered mass production shipments to NVIDIA, compatible with the next-generation Vera Rubin platform, with scale expanding from September. SemiAnalysis estimates DRAM average prices rose 45% month-over-month, with operating profit around 55 trillion KRW. Lyon maintains a target price of 3.7 million KRW, stating supply shortages may persist until 2030.
Weekly analysis: bullish bias, bottom established. Samsung's crash actually strengthens SK Hynix's relative advantage. Forward PE of 6.6 times is far below SanDisk's 28 times, indicating significant valuation recovery potential. Attention is on NVIDIA's earnings report to verify the shipment pace of HBM4.1⃣ The starting point of the last Bitcoin bull market saw daily candles with volume rising more than 5% for three consecutive days, directly pulling back to the previous high consolidation range.
2⃣ Then it consolidated sideways for five days, continued to rise to 25K, about a 60% increase from the low of 15K, followed by a larger 23% pullback to 19K, roughly the price of the 200-day moving average, basically the same price as the 200-day moving average when it just broke through.
3⃣ Now we have a similar scenario, again with daily candles rising more than 5% with volume for three consecutive days, directly pulling back to the previous high consolidation range. It's not as textbook as the last round but very close (previous high was 82K, this time it pulled back to 79K).
4⃣ Assuming the same pattern, after consolidation it continues to rise, about a 60% increase from the low, with a price around 92K, followed by a 23% pullback to about 70K, and the 200-day moving average price at this breakout is 69K.
In short, hopefully it consolidates for a few days and then continues to push higher 🤩
$BTC $BTC 77,000 Tug of War: Transition from "Spike High Volatility" to "Chip Rotation"
After this violent surge, $BTC did not rally straight up as retail investors expected, but instead experienced sharp spikes between 78,819 and 75,513, then stabilized around 77,000. The core logic behind this is not just the candlestick patterns, but the drastic adjustment in the macro background and leverage structure.
📈 Three hardcore drivers of the rise:
1. Macro liquidity resonance: The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion, directly pushing down long-term government bond yields. The decline in yields increased the attractiveness of risk assets, and BTC, as a "gold-like asset," absorbed a significant liquidity substitution demand.
2. Squeeze on excessive profits and institutional support: This rise was mainly driven by short stop-losses. From August 21-22, over $1.4 billion was liquidated across the network, with shorts accounting for over $1.15 billion. While retail investors panicked and closed positions, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1.9 billion in one week, indicating institutions are gradually adding positions around 77,000. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 Cryptocurrency volatility narrows, storage sector's top three collectively plunge
On August 24, after a weekend "high dive," the crypto market entered a phase of volatile consolidation. $BTC hovered around the $77,000 mark, engaging in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, slipping slightly by 0.09% in 24 hours to $77,386; $ETH showed relative strength, rising slightly by 0.20% to $2,448. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly approached $80,000 before retreating, while Ethereum rebounded sharply from about $1,880 to above $2,420, posting a weekly gain of about 30%, clearly outperforming Bitcoin.
Regarding market sentiment, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of approximately $2.6 billion last week, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Analysts believe this is a normal pullback and consolidation after a breakout, with limited downside. After stabilizing, it remains a buying opportunity. BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer has turned bullish with 90% confidence, stating Ethereum is expected to lead the next rally.
In stark contrast to the mild crypto market fluctuations, the storage chip sector faced a sharp sell-off. SanDisk $SNDK's decline widened to over 5%, Micron Technology fell about 3%, and SK Hynix dropped about 3.88%. On the news front, price increases for DRAM and NAND contracts have significantly slowed, with upside limited by demand-side resistance and long-term contract price ceilings. Previously, Micron had retraced about 20% from its peak, while SanDisk and Western Digital have fallen more than 30%. The weakening belief in AI computing power and the diminishing logic for storage price hikes continue to pressure sector valuations. 📅 First, the background: this is not a casual speech, but a "credibility retest." The 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27 to 29, with the theme "Financial Innovation: The Impact on Payments and Policy." Wash is scheduled to deliver his first keynote speech since taking office as Federal Reserve Chair at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28 (10 p.m. Beijing Time on Friday). But this was not an ordinary policy seminar—it was seen by Wall Street as the most critical window for Walsh to rebuild the Fed's credibility. Since taking office in May, Wash has implemented a "quieter Fed": removing forward-looking guidance, shortening policy statements, and being vague at two press conferences. The market interpreted this as a lack of determination to fight inflation, leading to the 30-year Treasury yield briefly hitting 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned sharply: "The Fed's credibility is at risk—the market is beginning to believe the committee doesn't really care about bringing inflation down to 2%." More critically, Wash's speech has yet to decide whether to discuss a macro "big picture" or directly provide policy guidance for September to December. Bloomberg economists expect he is more likely to choose the latter—focusing on describing the "intellectual framework" of Fed reform rather than giving concrete signals. TD Securities bluntly stated that Jackson Hole carries obvious "asymmetry risks"—if Wash's information is too little, the market will be disappointed; Even if some reaction functions are provided, the upside space is limited. ⚔️ --- Manstein's Strategic Deduction: Two Scenarios$xMU Micron — CEO declares AI is rewriting the storage cycle, but Burry's short adds uncertainty
Micron CEO Mehrotra publicly stated: "AI is completely rewriting the storage chip cycle logic, with customer demand exceeding supply by about 50%." The procurement model is shifting from price comparison bidding to collaborative design, deeply binding to enhance pricing power. Q3 revenue surged 345.7% year-over-year, non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 exceeded expectations, with a gross margin of 84.6%. Sixteen strategic customer agreements lock in a minimum revenue of $100 billion.
However, Michael Burry started building a short position in Micron in mid-August, insiders are net sellers, and the BR indicator has entered the overbought zone. The stock price is $966, down 23% from the 52-week high of $1254.
Weekly outlook: oscillating between 930-1000 with a bullish bias. The expiration of the CHIPS Act buyback restrictions in December is a mid-term catalyst, but short-term pressure comes from Burry's short position. Holding above 980 targets 1000; break below 930 calls for caution. Has Nvidia's "residual value guarantee" plan collapsed?
On August 10, Nvidia signed a memorandum of understanding with six leading financial institutions to establish a $500 billion financing platform.
Using Nvidia AI hardware as the underlying asset, it will issue public and private debt to institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds.
The raised funds will be injected into a special platform to provide financing support for AI companies' chip purchases or leases.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that for qualified AI infrastructure projects, the company can provide up to 25% residual value risk hedging support on demand to alleviate financial institutions' concerns about valuation declines in computing power assets and to broaden industry market-based financing channels.
However, shortly after the news of the 25% residual value guarantee came out, Nvidia began to backtrack repeatedly.
According to The Wall Street Journal, to ease investors' concerns about the company's risk exposure, Nvidia has significantly reduced the guarantee amount it provides for OpenAI's data centers, revising the financial guarantee scale from the original $250 billion to below $120 billion.
It is clearly unlikely that Nvidia can single-handedly support the AI financing market.
Currently, the US AI burn rate heavily relies on related-party transactions among several tech giants, giving a sense of a self-reinforcing spiral.
Moreover, the current large-scale AI burn exceeding market financing will further tighten market liquidity, which is linked to the US Treasury market—a major risk point.
In other words, currently—
the risk of a US AI bubble burst and the risk in the US Treasury market, these two major risk points in the US financial system,
are now interconnected.
$NVDA
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% BTC surged from $64,000 to $79,500 in 6 weeks... Now, leaving behind the overheated momentum in the confirmation zone, where is the key support level the market needs to verify? Last week, BTC jumped sharply from $64,000 to $79,500, and ETH rose more than 25% weekly before experiencing a pullback. This rally is a complex rise created by overlapping Treasury liquidity, ETF inflows, and short squeezes. However, the current price range is a short-term momentum overheated zone, and price confirmation must precede further gains. The key is the defensive strength of the support level that distinguishes whether this rise is a simple rebound or a trend reversal. For BTC, the $74,000–$76,000 range, and for ETH, the $2,300–$2,350 range, are the first lines of defense. If this range holds and selling pressure eases, the recent gains could establish a new lower boundary for the range. Conversely, if this support breaks down, the recent rally is more likely to be interpreted solely as the result of an overheated short squeeze. Looking at the market structure, this rally's #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
NVIDIA, a giant with a 75% gross margin, cannot withstand the DRAM price increase and has to pass on the cost, indicating that the pricing power of memory chips has become absurdly high. The most noteworthy aspect of this price hike is not the price itself, but that the profit margins of cloud providers are being squeezed from both ends—NVIDIA is raising prices by 15%, and memory manufacturers are increasing prices even more aggressively. Self-developed chips are a distant solution that does not address the immediate problem.
According to Bloomberg, NVIDIA has informed some of its largest customers that starting early next year, the prices of servers equipped with AI chips will mostly increase by more than 15%. This involves the Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell series. The specific increase depends on the chip generation and memory configuration. Manufacturers producing servers for Microsoft, Google, and Oracle have already notified their customers of this round of price hikes.
The Blackwell architecture NVL72 GB200 rack is priced between $2.8 million and $3.4 million, while the Vera Rubin NVL72 VR200 is even higher at $5 million to $7 million. A 15% increase means paying tens of thousands to nearly a million dollars more per unit. The price hike is due to structural tightness in DRAM supply, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron monopolizing global capacity.
Even with a 75% gross margin, NVIDIA cannot absorb the costs and must raise prices. Apple and Qualcomm have also recently been forced to increase end-product prices due to chip shortages. NVIDIA is scheduled to release its Q2 earnings report after the market closes next Wednesday. Institutions have placed nearly $800 million in short positions. Most people's first reaction is either to run or to rush in, but the truth is more worth watching than the sentiment.
Abraxas Capital has established about $783 million in short positions on Hyperliquid, while simultaneously buying spot to hedge. They have been continuously withdrawing from Binance over the past 4 days, showing a clear capital deployment rhythm.
A scale of $783 million is rare. The presence of spot hedging indicates this is more likely a structurally bearish position rather than a naked short gamble, but the net short exposure itself is an attitude—Abraxas judges there is a risk of a price pullback at the current level. A whale-level institution shorting is an important reference signal for the short-term direction.
For traders, such large short positions usually become short-term sentiment anchors. If the price continues to rise and reaches the position cost area, it may trigger a short squeeze; if buying weakens, large short positions will accelerate the decline. In the short term, pay attention to changes in funding rates for HYPE and related assets. If the funding rate remains negative and short positions increase, it indicates that the short consensus is consolidating.
Regarding the token HYPE, the direction is bearish, but large short positions themselves are potential short squeeze fuel—don’t look at only one side.
Source: Wu Shuo
#HYPE #Crypto100W $ETH Big Brother Maji rolled over $150,000 to recover to $11.15 million, the miracle behind high leverage is the unilateral market dividend
On August 24, according to EmberCN on-chain monitoring data, the well-known crypto whale Big Brother Maji (Huang Licheng) seized last week's unilateral short squeeze rally in the crypto market. Through long position rollovers, his account funds expanded from about $150,000 to $11.15 million, with a cumulative recovery of nearly $11 million.
This tens of millions recovery quickly became a hot topic in the on-chain community, but behind the glamorous profits lies a highly risky trading model that every trader should calmly examine.
1. Event Data Review
In the past ten months, Big Brother Maji has accumulated losses of about $35 million in ETH long trades on the Hyperliquid platform. After this round of market recovery, his historical total loss narrowed to around $24 million.
As of the latest monitoring:
- Total long position size is about $129 million, covering BTC, ETH, HYPE, PUMP, and multiple other assets
- Overall leverage remains at a high exposure of 12x, maintaining an aggressive trading style.
Investors familiar with on-chain data know this is not his first "desperate recovery," nor his first time facing consecutive liquidations. Historical records show he has experienced hundreds of partial liquidations, with his account repeatedly dropping from tens of millions to just tens of thousands of dollars, relying entirely on continuous off-exchange capital injections to replenish margin and wait for trend rebounds to turn the tide.
2. Tens of millions recovery is essentially a gift from a unilateral market
Many people see $150,000 rolling into tens of millions and their first reaction is to imitate this rollover and add-on strategy. Here, a core fact must be clarified:
Rolling over to get rich only suits a continuously rising unilateral short squeeze market. Once the market switches to consolidation or pullback, this strategy can be equally devastating.
What was the market environment last week?
ETF continued capital inflows, large-scale short liquidations in chains, continuous buying pressure, and the trend had almost no deep pullbacks. In this environment, unrealized profits kept expanding, and unrealized profits were further used to add and roll positions, rapidly inflating the asset snowball.
But the market has changed.
Now BTC and ETH have ended their unilateral rally and entered a high-level range-bound consolidation, with frequent spikes up and down, making both longs and shorts vulnerable to liquidation. The soil suitable for high-leverage rollovers has disappeared. The same operation in the current choppy market can easily be stopped out repeatedly, and the unrealized profits just gained can be fully lost in a short time.
3. Never directly copy the whale’s public positions
All Hyperliquid contract positions are fully public on-chain, and everyone can see his positions in real time, which has spawned many retail investors blindly following. There are two huge misconceptions here:
1. The whale has unlimited off-exchange buffer funds, ordinary people do not
When the market moves against him, he can continuously inject funds to replenish margin and withstand drawdowns, waiting for the next rebound. Most ordinary traders have limited capital and no extra ammunition; a deep pullback will cause immediate liquidation and exit, unable to hold until the market reverses.
2. On-chain data has a time lag
The large long positions you see are states that have already occurred. By the time you see the news or position screenshots, he may have already reduced, closed, or adjusted leverage. Retail followers are often one step behind.
The whale’s legendary story can be watched, but it cannot be directly copied as your own trading system.
4. Reflections on the current market
Now the market is range-bound at a high level, with difficulties on both long and short sides—long positions fear pullbacks, short positions fear sudden rallies.
Big Brother Maji’s case reminds the market of two things:
1. Bull markets create many leverage-driven wealth cases, but leverage is a double-edged sword that amplifies both gains and risks.
2. The unilateral trend has ended; in this consolidation phase, priority should be given to reducing leverage rather than increasing it to gamble.#Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Walsh Clarify the Policy Path?
The boss has something to say
The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting officially opens this Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will deliver the keynote speech at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday. This is not just an annual policy seminar keynote; Wall Street views it as the most critical window for Walsh to reshape the Fed's credibility.
An Allspring executive bluntly stated that the risks at Jackson Hole are greater than Nvidia's earnings report. Nvidia's results are a "single profit anchor," but Walsh's speech could simultaneously change interest rate expectations, term premiums, dollar liquidity, and global risk asset discount rates, making it a "systemic pricing anchor."
Walsh's "philosophy of silence" is coming at a cost
Since taking office in May, Walsh has deliberately avoided forward guidance, shortened policy statements, and been vague in two press conferences. Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard described this as the Fed's "most significant shift in decades." Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker bluntly said, "Walsh must directly address the inflation issue. Such statements are no longer enough; the market will be very disappointed."
The market is punishing uncertainty with yields. The 30-year US Treasury yield once hit 5.334%, the highest since 2007. US debt has surpassed 40 trillion for the first time, and inflation has exceeded the 2% target for five consecutive years. Walsh's silence is turning into an expensive noise.
What is the market waiting for? Three core questions
First, can Walsh provide a credible anti-inflation response function? The market wants to know which data will trigger rate hikes, how he views the 3.50% to 3.75% rate range, how to coordinate balance sheet reduction with Treasury buybacks, and whether he will stick to the 2% inflation target.
Second, will he use this speech to provide guidance on the policy path from September to December? This is still undecided. If he continues to be vague, TD Securities warns of a clear "asymmetric risk"—too little information will disappoint the market, and providing details leaves limited upside.
Third, there will be no Q&A session after the speech. The real directional judgment may come from off-stage remarks by other officials during the meeting; about five Fed officials are expected to give interviews to various media on Friday.
PCE sets the tone first, then Walsh speaks
PCE data will be released on Wednesday, with the market expecting core PCE year-over-year to remain at 3.3%. Currently, CME shows about a 41% chance of a rate hike in September and one hike before year-end. PCE exceeding expectations will further solidify the rate hike logic; below expectations will give Walsh more room to "wait."
Impact on the market
Bitcoin has surged from 64,000 to above 77,000; the main short squeeze rally has ended. After PMI hit a four-year high, rate hike divergences have heated up again, reducing the short-term cost-effectiveness of chasing more. If Walsh continues to be vague, US Treasuries may face further sell-offs, and risk assets will be under pressure. Clear guidance will clarify the direction. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
All long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback; stabilize between 73,000 and 74,000 before re-entering. SPCX base positions continue the pattern. Before PCE and Walsh's speech, avoid heavy directional bets.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.This set of data is indeed very interesting, and can even be described as a typical "dark under the lamp" phenomenon in the crypto market. The data released by Blockworks Research analyst AJC directly exposes a blind spot in the market: while most people are chasing PUMP, a high-multiplier token driven by emotion and hype, PONS is quietly making big profits. It ranks 13th in income, but its FDV/Revenue (fully diluted valuation/annualized or recent revenue ratio) is only 0.7 times. The horizontal comparison is extremely stark: from the perspective of pure cash flow and revenue generation capability, PONS offers an exaggeratedly high cost-performance ratio among the top 15 tokens. Why does the market only value it at 0.7 times? (Beware of underlying risks) The market is never foolish; when an asset is so extremely undervalued, it usually means there are certain "pain points" that make investors wary: Narrative appeal is insufficient: Tokens like PUMP or HYPE come with strong community traffic or popular sector halo, and their stories are attractive, so investors are willing to pay a premium. PONS, on the other hand, may be the kind of protocol that quietly collects money but lacks marketing and explosive narrative highlights. Token empowerment and inflation issues: Many protocols have income, but is this income going into the project team's pockets, used for buyback and burn, or distributed to long-term stakers? If the token's own value capture ability is weak, or if there is a large amount of unlocking pressure in the future, the market...#BTC experiences volatility after a surge, with continuous ETF capital inflows #Ethereum draft EIP-8363 sparks controversy Good morning, all genius traders!
BTC, ETH, and OKB are all crypto assets driven jointly by US Treasury real yields and market risk appetite, but their asset attributes, core narratives, and risk characteristics show clear differentiation.
$BTC Bitcoin is the core benchmark of the crypto market. Spot ETFs intermittently see large net inflows, institutional funds allocate on dips, and prices recover and oscillate upward with easing rate expectations. However, historical resistance from trapped positions above remains. This round of the market is driven more by liquidity expectations rather than a fundamental breakout. If Fed rate cut expectations fluctuate and US Treasury yields rebound, BTC will come under direct pressure, which overall determines the macro environment for the entire crypto market.
$ETH ETH has a higher beta than BTC. Spot ETF inflows have improved, on-chain staking rates remain high, and exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating supply contraction logic. However, the ETH/BTC ratio has not shown a strong reversal. Layer 2 networks continue to divert mainnet Gas usage, weakening the token burn deflation effect. The ecosystem lacks phenomenally successful applications, with most price movements following the broader market. It is a type that rallies strongly but also experiences larger pullbacks, with insufficient independent narrative fulfillment.
$OKB OKB is the exchange platform token with a total supply capped at 21 million, its value anchored to OKX exchange trading volume, fee rights, and the X-Layer Layer 2 ecosystem. Its price moves in tandem with platform business sentiment and has practical utilities such as fee discounts and ecosystem participation. However, the token is highly tied to a centralized platform, with core risks stemming from overseas regulatory policies and exchange operational volatility. If X-Layer ecosystem TVL growth falls short of expectations, it will also suppress valuation, making it difficult to have an independent major rally detached from the broader market.
Currently, we are in a risk asset recovery window. For BTC, focus on the sustainability of ETF capital inflows; for ETH, monitor the ratio trend and on-chain ecosystem data; for OKB, watch exchange trading and Layer 2 ecosystem progress. Once US Treasury yields rise, all three asset types will face pullback pressure. 🔥Record-breaking 110 trillion KRW return plan turns into a "killer" for Samsung's stock price!
#Samsung stock price drops 6.4%, return plan falls short of expectations
On August 24, at the opening of the South Korean stock market, Samsung Electronics' stock price plunged sharply, with an intraday maximum drop of 6.4%.
📋 The plan itself is very "lavish":
Last Friday, Samsung announced its 2026 shareholder return plan, expected to be between 90 trillion and 110 trillion KRW (about $80 billion), approximately 5 times the previous record of 20.3 trillion KRW. This includes a cash dividend payout of 30 trillion KRW in Q3 and a stock buyback of about 15 trillion KRW for employee compensation.
💥 Why is the market not buying it?
① Investors want buybacks, but Samsung offers dividends. JPMorgan analysts bluntly said: the plan "failed to bring better-than-expected benefits," with disappointment over the Q3 dividend size, no announced stock buyback, and the return ratio remaining at 50% of cumulative free cash flow.
② Competitor SK Hynix "rolled up" too aggressively. SK Hynix previously announced a buyback and cancellation of 40 trillion KRW in stock. Although Samsung's total amount is larger, it did not announce all buyback and cancellation arrangements at once, leading investors to feel the plan lacks "certainty."
③ Expectations were too high. Investors previously expected up to 140 trillion KRW, and after the plan was finalized, the "all good news priced in" logic appeared.
📊 Short term: sentiment under pressure 📉 The market has already priced in the record return expectations, so a pullback after the plan's release is inevitable.
🚀 Long term: fundamentals remain strong Samsung's Q2 operating profit surged 1813.8% year-over-year, and the AI-driven semiconductor supercycle direction remains unchanged.
Friends, is this pullback a chance to get in?
$SAMSUNG Is Bitcoin in a bull recovery or a bear trap? Response is more important than prediction: next step action plan
This article is very important, please read carefully. Recently, Bitcoin surged significantly, and everyone is discussing whether it is a bull recovery or a bear market rebound. The position you hold determines your mindset: those with positions hope for a bull recovery, while those sidelined hope it’s just a bear market rebound. Emotional trading is a major enemy; no one can predict the market. In trading, preparing to respond is more important than predicting.
Bitcoin likely has two possible trends, as shown in the chart:
The first is the green trend, indicating a market reversal. There is a classic but simple 123 rule: if the price can hold above the key resistance at 78,000-80,000 and form higher highs and higher lows, then the market reverses, and the rare bull market arrives early, following the green line.
Response: Personally, my short position at 78,200 will stop loss at 82,500; the spot holdings bought at 63,000 (BTC and ETH) will continue to be held. At the same time, look for opportunities to add positions and go long. The end of September to October and the end of this year to early next year are the 80-day cycle bottom and 20-week cycle bottom respectively. If the bull market comes, these two time points are opportunities to add positions. Tools like the pitchfork can be used to find support for operations. Once the bull market arrives, there will be enough time to add positions, so no need to be anxious.
The second is the red trend, where Bitcoin fails to hold the resistance level and fails to form higher highs and higher lows, so the reversal fails.
Response: Personally, I will continue to hold short positions and spot holdings (the plan for spot is to reduce some positions in reasonable zones and clear out in expensive and very expensive zones). The price may break new lows or may not, with repeated oscillations forming a bottom. Actually, whether it’s the first or second trend, the operation strategy doesn’t change much: add positions respectively at the cycle bottoms in late September to October and year-end. If the price falls into the very cheap zone of my personal valuation range chart, that is an excellent price to add positions.
Although I have positions, I will not be affected by market noise. Prediction itself has little meaning because no one can always predict correctly. Scientific trading is about preparing to respond to opportunities. What I am sure of is that we will have enough opportunities to add positions later; just patiently wait for signals.
My subjective view: If I must give a personal opinion, I am cautious about a direct market reversal. The market may oscillate longer than we expect because the cycle bottom in September-October is still ahead. But if this judgment is wrong, I will admit it, and it’s okay because it does not affect the subsequent operation strategy.
From a fundamental perspective, the market previously speculated on the US Treasury bond repurchase and yield control news, which briefly suppressed the 10-year US Treasury yield, but the benefit lasted only 1-2 days before yields quickly rebounded to 4.7%. Interested readers can check this out.
If the US can continuously implement Treasury repurchase policies, the effect is equivalent to marginal quantitative easing (QE), which will provide sustained upward momentum for equity markets and commodities. But if no supporting policies are implemented in the coming months, market enthusiasm will quickly fade, the previous rise was emotional speculation, and the market will fall again with a new low point emerging. Stay tuned!
In this round of broad market rally (except US stocks), my current favorite remains gold and silver. The cycle bottom around September is still ahead, making it a good time to add positions. In fact, I have long been optimistic about gold and silver and will look for more opportunities to add positions during future pullbacks.
The above are all personal views and operations and do not constitute trading advice. Good Monday morning, a new week has started, and the bulls and bears are back online.
Just sat down to take a look at the market; BTC is still hovering around 77,000, up about 0.2% in the last 24 hours. Last week it jumped straight from 64,000 to 79,500, rising more than 23% in a week, a rare increase in recent months.
Why the rise? Several factors combined.
The most direct is the US Treasury's big move—announcing a doubling of long-term bond repurchases, weakening the dollar, and risk assets collectively rallying. Then the shorts were collectively liquidated; over the past few days, short liquidations exceeded $4 billion, forcing shorts to cover by buying back, causing a stampede. On top of that, ETF funds poured in wildly; last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $1.92 billion, with over $1 billion in the past two trading days alone. These three factors combined caused the price to take off.
But honestly, this position is quite delicate.
Jan3 CEO Samson Mow said the real bull market hasn't arrived yet; the historical high of 126,000 is just "keeping up with inflation." That sounds a bit exaggerated, but the logic makes sense—the recent surge is more driven by short covering and policy expectations, not a large influx of new funds.
Technically, short-term support is at 75,700-76,000, with strong support at 74,500. Resistance is at 78,200-78,500 above, and the 80,000 level has heavy selling pressure.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #ETHTests2500
ETH's 30% weekly surge looks explosive, but the $697M flowing into spot ETFs may matter more than the $1.1B in short liquidations. A squeeze can ignite a rally. Fresh capital is what keeps it alive. With ETH testing $2,500, I'm watching whether ETF and spot demand survives the first wave of profit-taking. If buyers stay, this could become a real rotation. If not, leverage can unwind just as quickly as it built.The traditional view is **rising and falling together**, because both are "inflation-resistant assets." But in reality, it depends on which rises faster and why.
**Simply put, there are three scenarios:**
1. **Moderate inflation period**: Oil prices rise → inflation expectations increase → gold follows and rises (rising together). This is the most common situation, seen in the 1970s and 2022.
2. **Oil price surges but the Fed is forced to raise interest rates**: Oil prices soar → inflation gets out of control → Fed raises rates → real interest rates rise → gold actually falls. This happened during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict—oil prices rose to $120, but gold dropped from $2,070 to $1,620. Because rate hikes increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.
3. **Geopolitical crisis (war/sanctions)**: Oil prices rise + risk aversion increases → gold rises. In this case, both rise because gold's "safe-haven attribute" outweighs the negative impact of "inflation and rate hikes."
**The US-Iran game mentioned in the video belongs to the third scenario**—if a real conflict breaks out, oil prices rise + risk aversion, gold will rise.
**But the key question is: Have oil prices risen now?**
Crude oil (WTI) is currently around $65, it hasn't really risen this year and is still fluctuating at a low level. Gold rising to $4,680 is mainly due to central bank buying + a weaker dollar + geopolitical risks, not pushed up by oil prices.
**Conclusion for you: Don't watch oil prices to predict gold.** You don't have a gold position anyway, so the video's "oil price up, gold up" logic doesn't concern you. Your current strategy is to wait for BTC to pull back; whether gold rises or not doesn't affect you. $CL Today, I'll just highlight a few points from the Daily Report and share them directly. Looking at the macro perspective first, the preliminary US August composite PMI exceeded expectations, rising directly to a nearly four-year high. The service sector is still expanding strongly, which has basically offset the weakness in manufacturing. Europe is similar, with the composite PMI hitting a nine-month high in August, and the biggest driver was actually the rebound in manufacturing. Now, both Europe and the US are more resilient than the market previously imagined, but a problem arises: the stronger the economy, the easier it is for market expectations of rapid rate cuts to be pushed back. Clear divergence began to appear in the US stock night session. Crypto concept stocks actually performed well, with BTCS up 11% and Canaan up 4%; On the storage side, SK Hynix rose over 1%. However, the recently strong optical communications sector began to fall behind, with Applied Optoelectronics falling more than 9%. Recently, the rotation of the AI industry chain has been accelerating. Even within the same direction, prices are not rising simultaneously, and funds are clearly starting to pick niche stocks and cash out at high prices. U.S. Treasuries remain one of the biggest variables in the current market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent previously expanded the scale of U.S. Treasury buybacks, hoping to suppress long-term yields, but the effect did not last long. The market is currently most focused on Jackson Hole and how the Federal Reserve will respond to inflation and its subsequent policy path. If long-term interest rates remain unstoppable, it will continue to put pressure on high-valuation assets in U.S. stocks. Oil prices fell by about 1% today. Washington is also expected to announce a new round of sanctions against Iran, with funds taking profits before the news actually materializes. Right now, crude oil is still a typical geopolitical trend, so it's going downBTC is currently fluctuating around $76,000. After surging to nearly $79,000 earlier, there was a pullback. Indeed, quite a few short-term funds have started to take profits, but on the other hand, funds continue to flow into spot ETFs. Over the past five days, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF was about $1.92 billion, with historical net inflows reaching $53.71 billion. This means a very obvious phenomenon: short-term traders are selling, but institutional funds are still taking over. According to on-chain monitoring, a large number of short-term holders have recently transferred BTC to exchanges, with one inflow reaching about 17,800 BTC, marking one of the largest single-day short-term chip inflows since February this year. The key point is that this share mainly comes from short-term capital recently purchased, not large-scale distribution by long-term whales. So the current market is somewhat like this: short-term traders make money first, while institutional funds slowly take advantage of pullbacks. 🐋 From a technical perspective, the RSI has cooled down from its high to around 68, and the MACD remains above the zero axis. Currently, this seems more like momentum cooling during the uptrend rather than a sudden trend reversal. My view is that selling pressure near $79,000 temporarily held back BTC's push toward $80,000, but as long as ETF funds continue to flow in and the $75,500 level can hold, the market still has a chance to form new upward lows. Next, the focus is on one thing: when will the short-term selling be fully digested, and whether institutional funds can continue to hold on? Once selling pressure eases, $80,000 may be repaid as wellOne wallet sold 7,770 $BTC in three days, cashing out 576.6 million USD. I checked the on-chain records; this "bc1qsy" address started depositing to Binance from July 19, accumulating 12,513.5 BTC worth 850 million USD. Meanwhile, another address sent 1,000 WBTC to the F2Pool mining pool yesterday, valued at 77.4 million — sending to the mining pool basically means preparing to sell.
Brothers, the biggest buyer this week is the ETF, absorbing 2.6 billion in five days. The biggest seller is the whale, dumping 576.6 million in three days. The ETF money comes from retail investors through institutional channels, while the whale's money is old money exiting. Do you see this swap? Retail money comes in through IBIT to take the bags, while the whale's holdings go out through Binance to cash out.
Fear and greed dropped from 84 to 66, still in the greed zone but starting to cool down. The short whale on Hyperliquid is even more ruthless, opening a 235 million USD 10x short on BTC — the person who made 200 million from the previous market crash is now adding to shorts. Those who made 200 million are still shorting, those who made nothing are chasing longs; this market never lacks comedy.
A 576.6 million USD sell order in three days — do you think the whale is taking profits or running?
#BTC #WhaleSelling #ETF #SmartMoney #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露 This video was posted by "Money Path Mysteries" on August 11, lasting 15 minutes, discussing the impact of Trump's brinkmanship policy on gold.
**Core points of the video:**
1. The US-Iran confrontation is escalating; Trump uses brinkmanship (threats of military strikes, increased sanctions) to force Iran to concede.
2. The linkage of rising oil prices + yen depreciation + weakening dollar makes gold the only truthful safe-haven asset.
3. Treasury Secretary Yellen faces multiple conflicting goals: maintaining dollar strength vs controlling oil prices vs managing the yen.
4. Japan is passively hit and secretly increasing its gold reserves.
5. Capital is flowing from risk assets to safe-haven assets; gold continues to be bullish.
6. September 18 is a key date (BOJ meeting).
**My assessment: The macro analysis is of quality but has obvious intentions.**
**Reliable parts:**
- The US-Iran confrontation is indeed escalating; Trump’s recent stance on Iran is tough.
- Yellen is indeed facing conflicting multiple goals—this is a real macro contradiction.
- The BOJ rate hike expectation on 9/18 is high (76-80%), and yen short squeeze is indeed a risk.
- Gold has indeed surged this year; COMEX gold rose from $2,600 at the start of the year to $4,680 now (+79%).
- The logic of capital flowing from risk assets to safe-haven assets holds true in certain phases.
**Unreliable parts:**
1. **"The next 30 days will decide the year-end trend" is a typical FOMO headline.** Gold’s trend cannot be decided in 30 days; this statement is to create urgency to make you buy.
2. **This channel focuses on gold content** (all titles are #gold), clearly a gold bull KOL with bias.
3. **Selective ignoring of gold’s risks:** If the Fed turns hawkish, the dollar rebounds, or the US and Iran reach an agreement, gold could quickly correct down 10-15%. The video does not mention this at all.
4. **Comments point out issues:** Some say "Gold at $2,700 is wrong" (indicating some price data in the video may be incorrect), others say "Remember it’s physical gold, not futures."
**Relation to you:**
This video is **completely unrelated** to your current strategy because:
1. **You have no gold position.** You considered gold before but gave up—COMEX gold has already risen to $4,680, up a big chunk from $4,400-4,500; chasing higher is not cost-effective.
2. **Your rotation portfolio of 25 assets does not include gold.** Only XAU (gold ETF) is in the rotation portfolio but not yet entered.
3. **You are currently waiting for BTC/ETH/SOL to pull back, not gold.**
If you really want to allocate to gold, you should wait for a pullback to $4,200-4,400 before considering; buying now at $4,680 is just catching the top. But this channel won’t tell you that; it will only say "It’s not too late to buy now."
**Conclusion: The macro analysis is worth referencing, but don’t buy gold just because of this video.** Your current strategy is to wait for BTC to pull back; gold is not in your plan. If you really want to allocate, use a small amount of funds (≤¥1,000) from your rotation portfolio to test the waters on a pullback; don’t chase the high.#BTC #ETH
【Viewpoint Update】
I did not bottom-fish at 60,000 for BTC because it really didn’t reach my psychological price expectation, plus concerns about the high-level AI bubble risk in the US stock market, I always felt BTC would have a lower position;
But this week BTC strongly rebounded, judging from the changes in trading volume and the pattern, 58,000 is increasingly likely to be the bottom of the bear market;
Anyone trading in the past month should have felt the crypto market’s trading volume is frighteningly low, and volatility has dropped to freezing point. This is the calm before the storm. What’s certain is that there will soon be big volatility, but whether it will be a surge or a crash cannot be 100% confirmed;
Ultimately, this week’s trend unfolded with BTC choosing to rebound with increased volume, which is very similar to BTC’s movement in December 2022, both showing extreme volume contraction and very low volatility within the bear market cycle, followed by a weekly-level rebound that ultimately confirmed the bottom and then started a new bull market;
Combining this with the recent record-breaking single-day short liquidations, it’s clear that shorts were extremely crowded at that time. But looking at Binance’s long-short ratio data, there were actually more longs at the bottom. However, with the small-scale rebound, most longs started to take profits and then switched to shorts, continuously adding high-leverage heavy positions, which eventually led to the largest single-day short liquidation in history;
Many people, like me, did not bottom-fish spot at 60,000, so I’m sharing my upcoming trading plan, which is also suitable for those who didn’t bottom-fish at 60,000, for your reference:
First, I believe 60,000 is the bottom of this BTC bear market round, unless there is a historic crash in the US stock market. This probability is already very high. Although it’s frustrating for me who didn’t catch the lowest point, the current market trend shows this probability is very large;
Second, don’t regret it, because most bottom-fishers’ spot prices are actually higher than the current price. Although you didn’t bottom-fish at the lowest point, those who always bottom-fish early generally have prices concentrated above 85,000;
Next, we need to shift from a short-seller mindset and stop interpreting the upcoming rise as just a bear market rebound. But don’t blindly chase the rise. Even if the bull returns, the 80,000-90,000 trapped range will likely take about half a year to break through successfully. So during every drop of more than 15% going forward, keep accumulating spot. My expectation is to accumulate spot around 70,000;
If we are wrong and it’s not the end of the bear market, then the spot accumulated around 70,000 can be stopped out near 65,000. If your funds are ultra-long-term, meaning you won’t need them for years, you can also choose not to stop out, keep holding, and add positions again when it reaches the expected 40,000 area;
Finally: Based on historical trends and just looking at the crypto market’s current performance, the probability that BTC’s 60,000 is the bottom is already very high, unless next week completely erases this week’s gains and falls back to 65,000, or there is a major crash in the US stock market;
One more point to consider globally: If the crypto market bottoms, it means the global market won’t be too bad going forward. The US stock market will continue to hit new highs, AI’s high valuation will persist, and maybe the next crypto bear market will coincide with a global financial crisis, not this one. My previous caution was always because I worried this crypto bear market would coincide with a global financial crisis, which would push the bottom even lower;#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？
Alibaba $BABA is really putting its chips on AI this time!
Planning to place 80 billion HKD, 71 million shares? Correction: 710 million shares at 112.70 HKD each, 100% invested in full-stack AI; meanwhile, the latest quarterly AI cloud revenue rose 45% year-over-year, but capital expenditure surged 75% to 67.68 billion HKD, and net profit plummeted 75%.
My view: This is an aggressive bet of "exchanging profit for computing power, exchanging equity for the future." There is short-term dilution pressure; Hong Kong stocks fell as much as 8% today, so I do not recommend chasing the dip; 112.7 HKD is the placement price, observe if it can stabilize, and consider adding positions if it climbs back above 120. If AI revenue can continue to grow strongly, this 80 billion is ammunition; if AI monetization lags, the faster the money burns, the harsher the market criticism.