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BTC reported at $78,980, consolidating near the daily high, just one step away from the 80,000 round number. It has rebounded nearly 27% over 8 days. Spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $2.6 billion last week (BTC products about $1.92 billion + ETH products about $680 million), with institutional investors taking over short covering as the main buying force.
ETH simultaneously rose above 2500 (currently at 2512), with a weekly gain of about 25%, outperforming BTC by approximately 1.5 percentage points. The 2500 level has shifted from resistance to the daily pivot, with support at 2440 and resistance at the previous high of 2530.
Capital structure: Weak dollar (DXY 98.9) + long-term bond yields retreating from highs + expectations of US Treasury balance sheet expansion, three factors resonating to boost non-sovereign asset revaluation; gold also broke 4600, confirming the return of "safe-haven trading."
This week's catalysts:
8/27–29 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting: Powell's debut sets the tone, anti-inflation roadmap > hints of rate cuts
8/27 04:00 Nvidia after-hours earnings: revenue consensus ~ $92 billion, Blackwell shipments and data center guidance will determine AI chain risk appetite
8/29 20:30 US July Core PCE: if 0.1%, rate constraints may ease; if 0.3%, real yield suppression continues. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $BTC $ETH The market rose 24% this week, but OKB only increased by 4%: fundamentals are not bad, so why is it just not moving?
Tonight $OKB is hovering around $110, only up 4% this week, while BTC rose 23.6%. Compared to the beta nature of exchange tokens in the past, this data is frankly failing. On a 30-day scale, however, it’s quite strong, +34.85%, indicating it had risen in the previous wave but lagged behind this round.
The reason for lagging is not complicated. The fuel for this rally was short squeeze + ETF funds; OKB has no US stock ETFs, and derivative short positions are not crowded, so the sentiment transmission to it weakened into a "slow-following rally." On 8/21, it was pulled from 100.9 to 108, then fell back—a typical passive catch-up rise.
But there are three fundamental cards yet to be played. ICE (the parent company of NYSE) strategically invested in OKX and jointly launched compliant crypto futures, opening imagination space for traditional financial channels; after the X Layer upgrade, OKB became the only Gas token, with a fixed supply of 21 million and continuous burning, making its tokenomics the cleanest among exchange tokens; plus the IPO expectation hanging over it. These are not news this week but are slow variables.
The position is very delicate. On this day one year ago (2025/8/22), OKB hit its $256 ATH, now at $110, just halved. The KDJ J value of 104 is severely overbought, $108-110 is a previous dense trading zone with many trapped positions. $100 is the lifeline; if it doesn’t break, it will continue to consolidate. Bitcoin has once again become the sole focus of the market, with its price repeatedly confirming within the $77,000 to $78,000 range, having previously approached $79,500. Ethereum remains firmly above $2,400, with these two major assets jointly supporting the market's emotional baseline. Behind this rebound is the combined force of continuous ETF inflows and short-covering, but the funds do not seem to have truly spread out; Bitcoin still acts like a massive magnet, firmly attracting liquidity around itself. What truly deserves attention is the silence in the altcoin camp. Names like BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDK have shown occasional movements but consistently lack sustained buying follow-through, and their K-line structures have not formed any decent reversal patterns. They seem more like they are waiting for a signal rather than actively initiating an attack. This situation is not uncommon, but each occurrence means the market is still in a Bitcoin-dominated phase rather than a genuine broad rally. From the perspective of capital rotation, the most critical observation point currently is whether liquidity is willing to overflow outward. If trading volumes outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum cannot expand, then this rise can only be defined as a recovery driven by the leaders, not the start of an altcoin season. Historically, the start of an altcoin season is often accompanied by Bitcoin entering a high-level consolidation phase, with funds beginning to seek higher volatility targets, and clearly, we have not reached that stage yet. For ordinary participants, this market rhythm is actually a reminder: do not subconsciously assume that all比特币近期迎来一轮猛烈反弹，从6.4万区间快速冲高，逼近80000美元关口，创出一段时间以来最大单周美元涨幅。不少前期低位离场的交易者，对此轮行情感慨颇多。 梳理市场公开信息，本轮行情大致由三股力量共振推动： 1️⃣美债流动性变化 美国财政部扩大长期国债回购规模，30年期美债收益率从5.34%回落至5.19%。无风险收益率下行，一部分资金从债市流出，风险资产的配置吸引力提升。 2️⃣大规模空头被迫平仓 单周有数十亿美元的看跌头寸遭到清算，形成典型逼空行情。空头平仓买入进一步助推短期价格上行，放大了反弹幅度。 3️⃣现货ETF资金回流 美国比特币现货ETF录得大额周度净流入，创下去年10月之后的较高水平，机构现货买盘给盘面带来支撑力量。 全球债务规模不断走高，桥水达利欧也公开提及比特币可以作为小比例多元化配置的资产选项，市场对于加密资产的讨论度持续走高。 当下8万是一个很关键的心理关口。 市场分化成两种声音：一部分人看好继续向上拓展空间；另一部分观点认为，短期上涨速度过快，后续存在回踩震荡的可能性。 💬互动： 站在现在这个节点，你更倾向哪种看法？ A 有望继续向上试探 B 涨幅过猛，大$DOGE is now $0.0905, up 34% in 7 days, with a market cap of $14 billion, climbing to the tenth spot in crypto market cap.
Looks impressive, but breaking it down reveals old stories. RSI at 85.9 is severely overbought; 24h trading volume is $2 billion, open interest contracts at $1 billion, with leverage positions piled high. More importantly, this rally basically has nothing to do with $DOGE itself—BTC and ETH are up, and meme coins as high Beta tail assets are being pulled along, which is different from Musk’s 2021 pump.
Dogecoin’s fundamentals haven’t changed in ten years: 5 billion new coins minted annually, unlimited supply, inflation rate over 5%. It survives on community culture and celebrity effect, with no smart contracts, no DeFi ecosystem, no institutional narrative. This kind of coin has high bull market elasticity but crashes hardest in bear markets.
I’m not saying DOGE can’t rise, but talking about faith at this level is a bit ridiculous. After a 34% rise in 7 days, those buying in are gambling on "Musk tweeting again"—this isn’t investing, it’s a lottery.
My judgment: there’s still short-term momentum to push higher, but a 20%-30% pullback at any time wouldn’t be surprising. Don’t chase meme coin tail rallies with long-term positions. Talking fundamentals after a surge is mostly just finding excuses for yourself.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BTC & $ETH: Is history repeating itself?
In 2022, $BTC dropped to 17.7K in June, then saw a strong rebound, but eventually retested the low near 15.8K. $ETH showed a similar pattern at that time.
Fast forward to 2026, $BTC once again rebounded strongly from below 60K, approaching 80K at one point, while $ETH climbed back above 2.4K.
But this time there is a clear difference:
Institutional funds are returning.
Recent inflows into US spot ETFs show Bitcoin had nearly $2 billion in weekly inflows, and Ethereum ETF inflows were close to $700 million.
So the real question to focus on is:
Is this the true cycle bottom, or just another strong technical rebound?
The price structure, ETF fund flows, and market volume in the coming weeks may determine whether this rebound evolves into a new trend.
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit Playing with virtual currency for four years, my biggest insight is not to fight against your own holdings.
You can't hold when it rises, and even less when it falls, ending up working for the exchange.
Later, I came up with a simple trick: set an alarm clock every time I buy, and check back after three months.
Price fluctuations in between don’t matter; as long as the alarm hasn’t gone off, I don’t touch it.
As a result, most of my profits came from those trades locked by the alarm.
I started buying $BTC in batches from 42,000, down to 26,000, with an average cost just over 30,000.
Now that the price has recovered quite a bit, I haven’t sold all, just 30%, keeping the rest locked.
The locking method is simple: transfer to a cold wallet, then hide the mnemonic phrase in a cabinet at my hometown.
Want to sell? You have to go back home first, and the hassle cuts my impulse in half.
I tried futures once, lost 2,000 in five minutes, and blacklisted it ever since.
That 2,000 was like buying a ticket to realize my own limits.
Now I treat news as jokes; things like “whale transfers” or “policy rumors” are all distractions.
Useful info is often hidden in on-chain data on blockchain explorers, but that’s too exhausting.
So I simply don’t look; I only watch one indicator: whether people around are still talking about crypto.
When no one talks, I buy a bit; when everyone talks, I sell a bit—simple and straightforward.
I also have some $ETH, but not much, mainly to experience gas fees and catch upgrade bonuses.
I found watching gas fees is way more interesting than watching candlesticks; at least you can guess if the network is busy.
I always add to my position in three parts, buying one part every 20% drop, never acting before that.
When my bullets are gone, I close the app and never add more capital—that’s my bottom line.
I set stop-loss orders 15% below my purchase price; if hit, I accept the loss and leave.
Once I leave, I never look back, even if it rises tenfold later, it’s none of my business.
The first thing I do with profits is withdraw them, using the money to buy new appliances or a bag for my wife.
Seeing her happy is a hundred times more reassuring than watching floating profits.
I only hold a tiny base of $SOL, purely to observe the ecosystem.
When it dropped from over 200 to single digits, I didn’t add because I didn’t understand it.
Not understanding means no touching—that’s my strictest rule now.
Finally, one sentence: don’t treat the crypto world like a casino; treat it like a piggy bank—once you put money in, don’t always think about breaking it open.
Life goes on as usual, work goes on as usual, crypto prices do whatever they want, but it doesn’t affect what’s for dinner tonight. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Approaching the August 28 unlock, $GRASS shows a continuous decline in contract CVD while both trading volume and open interest expand, and the price remains resilient. This divergence, where active selling pressure increases on the derivatives side but spot buying absorbs it, indicates that bullish and bearish funds are concentrating on turnover. If open interest stays high and contract CVD turns upward, exhaustion of active selling could easily trigger a short squeeze; conversely, if spot selling pressure breaks liquidity on the unlock day, the market will face a pullback risk. If open interest significantly exits in advance, it means the absorbing buyers are retreating, and the subsequent focus will be on the dynamic changes of contract CVD and open interest around the unlock period.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡At midday, before the US market opens, the market has quietly been gathering strength. Rather than chasing highs and selling lows, it is more worthwhile to calmly analyze the underlying logic of this market cycle and wait for liquidity to return before making further plans. The macro narrative remains clear and strong. The Federal Reserve has doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, directly pushing the 30-year Treasury yield down from 5.34% to 5.19%. The weakening dollar opens a window for risk assets, while Bridgewater Associates under Ray Dalio publicly states that debt is unsustainable, further reinforcing the logic of currency depreciation trades. This is not just noise from one or two days but the cornerstone supporting the medium-term trend. The signals from the capital side are equally intriguing. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.6 billion this week, with BlackRock's IBIT product alone contributing over $500 million. The Ethereum ETF is not far behind, with a net inflow of $697 million during the same period. It is worth noting that although market expectations for the passage of the CLARITY Act are not high, the SEC and CFTC are each advancing regulatory frameworks, causing funds to spread from purely BTC to a broader range of altcoins, making the market structure healthier than in previous weeks. Specifically, Bitcoin is currently priced at $76,800, having touched $79,500 last Friday, then slightly retraced to $75,500 over the weekend, with a weekly gain of 23%, marking the best weekly performance since March 2023. The hourly-level bottom keeps rising, with the $76,300 to $76,600 range serving as a relatively solid buying support zone, and a stop loss can be considered below $75,500. On the upside, $78,400 toRecently, after a rebound, the crypto market has entered a high-level tug-of-war phase. BTC is oscillating narrowly around $75,000-$78,000, while ETH is fluctuating widely between $2,380 and $2,550. Most people habitually view the two with the old perspective of "leading coin follows the rise," but they overlook a core change: in this round of the market, the resilience and explosive power of BTC and ETH are completely mismatched—BTC trades slow upward momentum for strong resilience, while ETH trades high explosive power for high volatility in corrections. This asymmetry in capability is precisely the decisive factor for the next phase of the market. Understanding this mismatch logic is key to finding your own trading rhythm. First, look at BTC, which is currently the most resilient asset in the market but has significantly weaker upward explosive power. Its resilience is reflected in extreme support toughness: the maximum drawdown after this rebound is only about 4%, and during the weekend's concentrated market correction, BTC's decline was only 2.4%, almost half that of ETH; every time the price dips to the $75,000 level, it quickly recovers, with intraday drawdowns basically controlled within 3%, and panic-driven flash crashes are rare. The core support behind this is the stability of institutional base holdings: in the past month, spot BTC ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of over $3.7 billion, with leading institutional products maintaining steady capital inflows, and no significant net outflows even during volatile periods; on-chain exchange BTC continues to see net outflows, with large holders moving coins to cold storage for locking, and mid-to-long-term chips basically not participating in short-term trading. However, corresponding to this is insufficient upward explosive power. The price repeatedly encounters resistance near the $80,000 integer mark and has never effectively broken through, with each surge topping out around $79,000 BTC suddenly surged to the doorstep of $80,000, and this time, it’s not just the shorts that got crushed.
Many people's first reaction to this BTC rebound is: another short squeeze.
But if you only see it as a short squeeze, you might be underestimating this market move.
In late August, BTC quickly rose from just above $60,000, once approaching $80,000. The latest data shows that on August 24, BTC was still trading around $79,000, indicating that after the surge, it didn’t immediately give back all the gains.
More importantly, there’s an interesting combination behind this rise.
US Treasury yields fell, shorts were liquidated en masse, and ETF funds flowed back in simultaneously.
In the past five trading days, the US spot BTC ETF saw continuous net inflows totaling about $1.918 billion; the spot ETH ETF had net inflows of about $697 million during the same period, with these two product types attracting roughly $2.6 billion combined. This is one of the strongest weeks since 2026.
So this time, BTC’s surge wasn’t simply driven by the futures market forcibly pushing the price up.
Looking at the capital flow rhythm, from August 19 to 21, BTC spot ETF daily net inflows were approximately $517 million, $606 million, and $308 million respectively. Consecutive days of large inflows indicate that this rebound is at least no longer just short covering but shows signs of spot capital re-entering the market.
But personally, I think the truly noteworthy point is right here.
After BTC rose to $78,000, $79,000, and even near $80,000, the nature of the market has started to change.
The first half was shorts disbelieving and getting squeezed out.
The second half is bulls starting to believe, even worrying about getting in too late.
Once the market enters this stage, the risk actually increases.
Because the most intense short squeezes are often when chips are most easily exchanged. Earlier, shorts stopped losses by buying in; now, if the price continues to hold high without falling, it will attract new leveraged longs entering.
This is what we really need to watch next.
From a macro perspective, after the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, long-term US Treasury yields fell, easing pressure on risk assets. This is also one of the key catalysts for BTC’s sudden acceleration this time. But note, expanding bond repurchases is not the same as the Fed starting QE; it should not be simply interpreted as "money printing."
So I now tend to interpret this round of gains as a re-pricing after an improvement in the funding environment, rather than a confirmed new bull market.
BTC has pulled back from the previous oversold area, but the $80,000 level will become a new watershed.
If it can consolidate at a high level, digest short-term profits, and ETF funds remain stable, then this rally has a chance to gradually evolve from a "short squeeze rebound" into a trend recovery.
But if the price can’t break $80,000, capital enthusiasm quickly cools, and leveraged longs start to pile up heavily, then just as shorts were squeezed out earlier, longs could be liquidated later.
So going forward, I won’t just focus on whether BTC breaks $80,000.
What really matters is, after reaching this point, will it hold sideways or fall?
If it holds sideways, it means capital is willing to buy at the high level.
If it can’t hold, then this rally might just be a beautiful short squeeze counterattack.
The biggest change for BTC this time isn’t how much it rose.
It’s that the force that had been suppressing it is starting to loosen.
As for whether $80,000 can truly be trampled underfoot, it depends on whether the incoming capital is long-term funds or another batch of leveraged traders chasing highs.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Blow blow blow
I blew it up again
20 ETH has already gained over 1000 U in floating profit
Seeing this news, I knew today was a bit stable
Nearly $1 trillion in the TGA fund pool
Long-term bond buybacks increased from $2 billion per time to at least $4 billion
This sentiment effect is basically like giving the market two small rate cuts
Of course, this is not a real rate cut
Nor is it the Fed directly flooding the market with liquidity
But as long as long-term US Treasury yields are pushed down
Risk assets can catch a breath
Before, the market was guided by negotiation progress
Then every day urging the Fed to help draw the line
The Fed didn’t cooperate
Now the Treasury Department is stepping in to draw it themselves 😂
But I’m still a bit anxious
Because what’s being talked about now is still a possible action
The exact scale and funding method haven’t been fully finalized
If expectations are hyped up and then crushed again
My liquidation price at 2401 can’t hold
——
The total market cap of the entire crypto market has reached $2.77 trillion
Up 3.1% in 24 hours
Trading volume $109 billion
$ETH is indeed leading the rhythm this round
But BTC’s market dominance is still 57.5%
Funds haven’t fully spread into altcoins
ETH is now around $2491
Trading volume $20.25 billion
2500 is the gate right in front
Only after holding above can it have a chance to test 2600
If it falls back to 2440, be cautious of a false breakout
Once 2400 is lost
I can’t stubbornly hold this position anymore
$BEAT is still the most disappointing one
Trading volume $21.42 million
The overall market is rebounding
But it’s still falling against the trend
Showing that unlocking and selling pressure haven’t been fully digested
First see if 0.12 can hold
Reclaim 0.14 before talking about the second wave
$ZEC is really ridiculous
Current price $843
Feels like it’s going to 1000
24-hour trading volume $1.348 billion
Intraday range has stretched to $823 to $885
It’s not weak now
It’s strong enough that I dare not chase
Break 885 then look at 900 and 1000
Break below 820 and watch out for profit-taking at highs running together
OKB is actually moving more comfortably
Up 10.1% in seven days
Trading volume $45.66 million
Trading activity is still increasing
If it doesn’t break below around 110, it remains relatively strong
Next resistance at 120
I still prefer to wait for a pullback to slowly buy spot
At least I don’t have to stay up at night watching the liquidation price and lose sleep
I’ll hold this position for now
But if 2500 doesn’t hold, I’ll take some profit
The Treasury Department really added fuel to the market this time
But it’s just helping to suppress long-term rates
It can’t really be treated as unlimited liquidity injection
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Forwarded:
Something very strange is happening
Bitcoin surged from $64,000 to $79,000.
Now everyone thinks the bull market is back.
However, almost no one understands what triggered this move.
It all started with U.S. Treasury bonds.
The Treasury doubled the maximum size of long-term bond repos:
$2 billion → at least $4 billion per transaction.
Long-term yields instantly dropped.
Then Bitcoin started to rise:
$65,400 → $69,500
An almost instant increase of over $4,000.
Then Trump put cryptocurrency back on the agenda.
Strategic Bitcoin reserves began to be discussed again.
Bitcoin continued to rise:
$69,500 → $79,000
By then, the short squeeze had taken care of the rest.
Leveraged short positions were being eliminated.
Forced buying pushed BTC even higher.
$4 billion was liquidated in just 48 hours.
So the chain reaction is simple:
Treasury expands repo size
↓
Yields drop
↓
Trump rekindles hope for crypto
↓
Bitcoin rises
↓
Short positions liquidated
↓ Forced buying pushes BTC to $79,000
But everyone overlooked this:
This is not quantitative easing.
The Fed has not restarted the money printer.
And while everyone is celebrating the rise, the Fed is moving in the opposite direction.
The latest FOMC minutes show that a rate hike in September is still under discussion.
This is not the clean macro environment I expected for the start of a Bitcoin bull market.
And we've seen this trap before.
August 2022:
Bitcoin suddenly rose.
Everyone thought the bear market was over.
Then the bull trap failed, and BTC crashed again.
Same year.
Same excitement.
Same belief that the bottom had been reached.
And the macroeconomic situation is worse now.
War risks remain unresolved. Oil prices remain high.
The energy shock is not over.
Now there is one level more important than anything else:
$83,000-$85,000.
Reaching this level means nothing.
The key is to hold this level.
If Bitcoin reaches $83,000-$85,000 and is rejected, the bull trap remains.
If it breaks through this level and truly holds, the pattern will change. Bitcoin Hits Largest Weekly Gain in Three Years: Weekly Surge of 23% Reaches 79,000, How Will Spot Take Over After Short Squeeze?
Bitcoin recorded a 23% weekly surge last week, marking the largest weekly gain in over three years. Intraday, it touched a high of $79,000, making a push toward the historic $80,000 level.
This pulse-like rally is driven by two hardcore forces: first, the US spot ETF saw a massive net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, combined with macro liquidity injected by the US Treasury’s expanded long-term bond repurchase (Stealth QE); second, billions of dollars in shorts in the derivatives market faced a cascade of liquidations. A key micro signal is that open interest (OI) actually declined during the sharp rise, indicating the current rally is mainly driven by real spot buying and short covering, rather than fragile high-leverage long stacking.
Around $78,000, the market’s short-term floating profit has reached 75%, with short-term profit-taking and RSI’s phase of overbought conditions triggering intense high-level battles. Since leveraged counterparties have been deeply cleared out, whether the $80,000 level can hold depends entirely on the sustained net inflows from institutional ETFs and the willingness of spot CVD to actively absorb. The market has officially entered a right-side strength test phase.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Simply put, the ideal scenario in my mind is a mild PCE with the market staying calm or even a false breakout.
Then, no matter how much Nvidia's earnings beat expectations, it's already the last hurrah; this theme is old, and it's really hard to rise after all the buying.
After the earnings are released, they will find any angle to trigger a sell-off (waiting for some agreements at the China-US summit at the end of September before rising again).
Finally, on Friday, Powell will initiate a decisive move, which will lead to another wave of deflation and deleveraging.
If they want to be more aggressive, they will start releasing hawkish data from the PCE to raise rate hike expectations.
Then from September, the various non-farm payrolls and CPI data will continue to raise rate hike expectations, pushing the probability from the current 30% to 70% before the mid-September FOMC. By then, whether they hike rates or not won't matter; the market will have already completed price discovery during the rise in rate hike expectations.BTC has stagnated, breaking the previous high with divergence, it's time for a correction
But it just won't fall
I took a look
Brother Maji is trading every minute
I feel like Maji is controlling the market with contracts
I've seen this situation before
Wait until he sleeps and then directly snipe him
Precision blast!
Pin spike!
He currently holds 1140 BTC positions
BTC liquidation price 73200
ETH liquidation price 2135
HYPE liquidation price 48.6
Manage it yourself Currently, $GRASS shows a divergence where trading volume and open interest are rising simultaneously, but the contract CVD continues to trend downward. With the token unlock approaching on August 28, bearish selling pressure has been actively absorbed by spot and buy orders, leading to a critical juncture in the battle between bulls and bears.
From the perspective of derivatives and capital flows, the declining contract CVD indicates continuous active sell orders being released, but as volume and open interest expand, the price refuses to fall accordingly. This chip turnover state reflects that off-exchange funds are absorbing the bearish selling pressure.
The core factor driving the current market is primarily the psychological game around the unlock date, followed by the marginal strength of hedging short positions. Some token holders about to unlock choose to open short positions in the derivatives market in advance to hedge risks, concentrating selling pressure on the contract side.
The bullish scenario is based on the exhaustion of short liquidity. If derivatives open interest remains high and contract CVD stops declining and turns upward, active selling will fail to push prices down, triggering short liquidations and driving a short squeeze rally.
The bearish scenario depends on the intensity of concentrated selling on the unlock day. If large-scale dumping emerges on the spot side after the August 28 unlock, accompanied by a rapid plunge in contract CVD and a sharp drop in open interest, the current absorbing funds will be overwhelmed, causing a swift price pullback.
If the price breaks the preset stop-loss level or open interest significantly decreases before the price rises, it indicates that the buying funds absorbing selling pressure have withdrawn, and the short squeeze logic fails.
In the next 7 days, it is crucial to monitor whether contract CVD stops falling and rebounds, as well as changes in open interest and spot flows around August 28.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估$SNDK From above 1800 to around 1500, the bulls have taken significant paper profits, but Lucy's core judgment remains unchanged: this is a shakeout during an uptrend, not the end of the medium-term trend. She still sets 2000 as her target. The real conflict was that she chose to add positions in batches during the decline, rather than waiting for confirmation from the right. Once this script is judged correctly, the return is very flexible; If you misjudge, every additional position under high leverage narrows your escape path.
@山寨女王露西's original long positions are not chasing at high levels. She said she initially built positions around 1200 yuan, reduced positions in batches during the rise, then replenished them later. Currently, the overall cost is around 1400 yuan. Her plan is clear: add one more below 1500, add another near 1450, and if there is still emotional sell-off, then see if the 1350 to 1300 range can be supported. She believes the 1300 area is a key resistance turning support zone on the daily chart, and it will not be easy for the market to fall back to 1200 in one go.
But that doesn't mean there's no space below. She also noticed that at that time, the platform's data showed that long positions accounted for about 65% to 70%, and after a day of price drops, many people were still waiting for a reversal. In this crowded structure, the first price dip may not be the lowest point, and a pullback may just continue to attract bullish positions. So while watching the 2000, she reminded her not to use up all her bullets on the first kill. For her, 1500 and 1450 are split positions, not "buy whatever drops."
She was bullish on SNDK's logic, but the core wasn't a single cable meeting that night$SNDK I'm such an unlucky guy, I sold my long positions too early again, and rushed into short positions, feeling frustrated!!!
Judgment criteria: It only counts as valid if the position holds steady for 2-3 consecutive trading days; momentary intraday spikes don't count
Table
10-year US Treasury yield range and pressure on the storage sector Market performance interpretation
✅＜4.40% Pressure relieved, slightly bullish Liquidity environment is friendly, valuations open up, storage technology is more likely to rally, Treasury buyback target range [(Xueqiu)].
🟡4.40%-4.50% Neutral, critical zone The dividing line between bulls and bears; here it fluctuates, the sector depends on its own earnings cycle, interest rate impact is limited.
🔴4.50%-4.70% Strong suppression range Storage starts to show obvious pressure, fault tolerance decreases; even with good earnings, large swings and increased volatility are common. The recent storage crash occurred just above this range.
⛔＞4.70% High risk zone Valuation compression intensifies, as long as yields are driven by inflation/fiscal factors, the storage sector is prone to sharp corrections; only very strong earnings breakthroughs can offset the negative impact of rates.
🚨＞5.00% Severe risk alert Historical-level pressure, growth stocks generally face valuation cuts, highly elastic sectors like storage will see amplified correction space, best to avoid bullish strategies.
Very important: Distinguish the source of upward yield movement
1. Yield rises due to strong economic data
Even if it hits 4.6-4.7, as long as corporate profits continue to exceed expectations, storage may not crash sharply, just the upward momentum is weakened.
2. Yield rises due to inflation rebound, US debt supply, fiscal concerns (malignant rise)
This was the scenario for the storage crash in August; at the same 4.6%, the damage is much greater, with risks of both stock and bond sell-offs, storage is the first to be hit.
Combined with the Treasury buyback on September 9
- Ideal effect: push the 10-year Treasury yield back below 4.4%, easing pressure on the storage sector.
- Below expectations: insufficient buyback strength, yields remain above 4.5%, storage will continue to be suppressed by rates.
Three practical trading watchwords
1. 4.5% is the first red line: if it holds above 4.5%, reduce position expectations for storage longs, avoid chasing highs.
2. Only intraday spikes don’t count; focus on closing results over 2-3 consecutive days, don’t panic over single-day pulses.
3. Interest rates are just the denominator; the ultimate determinants for storage chips are storage cycles, HBM orders, corporate earnings reports; rates are just an amplifier, not a standalone trading basis.
Supplement: The 30-year Treasury yield can be used as auxiliary reference; the 10-year yield is the core indicator for judging SanDisk and Hynix.【BTC Breaks Through Key Cost Line with Explosive Volume, Bear Market May Have Ended Early】
$BTC surged from around 62,000 to nearly 80,000 in one week, a gain of over 23%, marking one of the strongest weekly performances in recent years.
This cannot be explained by "short squeeze" alone.
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.6 billion, with spot trading volume expanding simultaneously; BTC reserves on exchanges dropped from about 3.4 million during the last bear market to around 2.7 million currently. BlackRock's IBIT now holds over 760,000 BTC.
What’s truly noteworthy is that after the price surge, contract open interest actually decreased, indicating short positions were liquidated, but the market has not seen a large influx of high-leverage long positions. Spot demand and institutional capital are the more important forces behind this breakout.
$BTC has reclaimed the 200-day moving average and the short-term holder cost line. My judgment is that the major bottom of this bear market likely formed between 50,000 and 60,000, and the bear market may have officially ended early.
In the short term, there is still a chance to challenge 83,000, but the early bull market will not just rise without any pullbacks. If a consolidation range forms afterward, or even a pullback near 72,000 and the short-term holder cost line, that could be the next opportunity worth watching for positioning.
The biggest risk now is not being out of the market, but anxiously chasing highs after a big rally. Will you wait for a pullback to buy, or believe $BTC will break directly through 83,000?This Friday evening, Walsh will make his first major policy statement at Jackson Hole, and the market has already entered a state of "waiting for answers." Tonight, focus will be on US durable goods orders, followed by the release of PCE inflation data and GDP revisions, which will serve as the most important data setup before the speech. Earlier, the Fed meeting kept rates unchanged 8-4, with some officials still signaling a more hawkish stance. Although pausing rate hikes remains the main theme, the future policy path is not yet fully determined. What the market really wants to know is not just whether Wash is "hawkish" or "dovish," but whether he can clearly explain inflation, employment, and future interest rate decision conditions. Currently, the market is pricing in expectations: $BTC is around $77,600, $ETH around $2,430, and $XAU is holding around $4,580. But don't simply treat all three as safe-haven assets. BTC and ETH are currently more susceptible to dollar liquidity, real interest rates, and risk appetite; Gold more reflects changes in fiscal credit, monetary policy, and real interest rates. If data remains hot, Walsh signals a tougher policy, and the dollar and Treasury yields keep rising, risk assets may be the first to come under pressure, with BTC and ETH being especially sensitive, and gold also likely to be constrained by rising real interest rates. Conversely, if he clearly sets conditions for pausing rate hikes or even future easing, yields fall, and the dollar weakens, the rebound potential for BTC and ETH could increaseI've observed the storage sector's trend over the past two weeks and the crypto market sentiment recently, and it can be summarized as "short storage, long crypto," which still fits the current situation well.
SanDisk $SNDK looks more like a meme coin, even the leader of meme coins. It's said to be an AI bubble, similar to the internet bubble. Since its historical high around $2400 in June, its market cap has evaporated by nearly half in just over a month. The situation on the Korean side is even more grim. The US stock market is also at a high level now, and there is still a risk of continued volatility and pullback. So the summary is "short storage" #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
$BTC BTC spot ETF recorded the largest weekly net inflow since last October, which surprised most people as it kept rising. This indicates that "smart money has shifted," seemingly returning to the crypto market that was ignored for months, which can be seen as another way to harvest retail investors. The bullish trend is gradually forming. Be cautious with leverage, prevent flash crashes, and consider going long on pullbacks.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
To summarize, the fundamentals of storage stocks are actually not bad, but the stock prices seem to have risen too much. On the crypto side, the macro environment (weakening dollar, treasury repo) just supports it. So in the short term, the logic of "short storage, long crypto" is consistent.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
This is just a share. Of course, if you remember it, you might thank me. $BTC $ETH $OKB SOL｜Market Analysis at 00:30 AM on 8.25
As of the early morning of August 25, the crypto market is in a strong rebound driven jointly by macro policies, short squeeze, and institutional sentiment.
📊 Overall Market Overview
The past week (up to August 23) was the strongest week for Bitcoin since March 2023, with a weekly gain of over 23%, once breaking above $79,000. Market sentiment completely reversed, with the Fear & Greed Index soaring directly from “Fear” (46 points) to the “Greed” zone (80 points).
Performance of Major Assets:
· $BTC Bitcoin: around $79,000, weekly gain about 24.7%. Technically, it has risen above the 50-week EMA, the first time since November 2025, regarded as a reliable signal of a mid-term trend reversal.
· $ETH Ethereum: around $2,508, weekly gain about 32.4%. Outperformed Bitcoin, benefiting from the overall market risk appetite recovery.
· $SOL Solana: around $96, weekly gain about 27.8%. Price rebounded nearly 28% from a low near $74 but faces key resistance in the $100-105 range.
· $OKB: Recently strong performance, once surged over 10% on August 21, reaching the $120 mark.
🔍 Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Bitcoin ($BTC)
Although the overall trend is bullish, multiple short-term indicators show overbought conditions. The 14-day RSI entered an overheated zone at 79.69, and the MACD histogram is near the zero line, indicating weakening short-term upward momentum. The psychological resistance zone is between $78,400-$79,300, with stronger resistance at $83,300-$84,500. Key support levels are at $76,254 and the $75,000-$77,000 range; a pullback to these levels is worth watching.
Solana ($SOL)
$SOL shows a weekly buy signal but must effectively break through the $100-$105 resistance zone to confirm a larger trend reversal. If successful, analysts target a short-term goal of $114-$116, and even a mid-to-long-term target of $160-$180. Key support lies at $75-$80; breaking below this area could invalidate the rebound structure.
⚠️ Trading Reminder
The market is overheated in the short term, and part of this surge is due to a short squeeze in the futures market—about $3-4 billion of short positions were liquidated within a week. After this momentum fades, the market may return to fundamentals for testing. It is recommended to wait for a price pullback near support levels before considering entry, avoiding chasing highs when RSI is overbought and prices approach resistance zones. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $BTC & $ETH : IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell to $17.7K in June, rallied sharply, then retested lows near $15.8K. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has again rebounded strongly from below $60K toward $80K, while $ETH recovered above $2.4K. But this cycle has a major difference: institutional demand is returning through spot ETFs, with recent weekly inflows approaching $2B for Bitcoin and nearly $700M for Ethereum.
Is this a real cycle bottom—or another relief rally? BTC surged to 80,000 then pulled back
$BTC surged 22% in a single week, touching $79,400 intraday before quickly retreating to the $77,000–78,000 range. On the surface, it looks like a "failed push to 80,000," but the market hides a contradictory phenomenon: everyone says "institutions are buying," yet the price can't move higher.
Money is coming in, but the price can't rise. Weekly ETF net inflows reached $1.92 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking $503 million in a single day. But ETFs are passive allocation funds driven by index rebalancing; "must buy" does not equal "buy because of optimism." The money is mechanically injected, not actively bullish.
Shorts are dead, but bulls are also nervous. The short squeeze seems strong, but the upward push is not from new buying but forced short covering. After shorts are fully cleared, the largest marginal buying power disappears—this is the fatal divergence of "new highs with shrinking volume."
Whales are selling, retail is chasing. On-chain data shows some large holders reducing positions at highs, while weekend liquidations totaled $304 million with longs accounting for 62.6%. Smart money quietly retreats, retail frantically buys, and ETFs mechanically buy—the three forces are completely opposed.
Using today's leverage to price tomorrow's liquidity. The U.S. Treasury doubled bond repo operations signaling easing, but macro liquidity transmission takes time, while crypto market leverage reacts instantly. Once expectations fail, premature pricing becomes overpricing.
Essence: BTC's identity crisis. It is transitioning from a "retail speculative asset" to an "institutional allocation asset," but the trading structure remains stuck in the old era. Institutional funds provide bottom support but lack upward elasticity; retail leverage provides upward elasticity but creates downside risk.
Going forward, rather than focusing on the 80,000 level, watch three signals: whether ETFs have three consecutive days of net outflows, whether on-chain active addresses grow simultaneously, and whether funding rates remain positive after falling.
The surge and pullback is not a simple technical correction but a deep game of "who is truly pricing BTC."
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$ETH #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC (Bitcoin)
Currently driven by liquidity easing from US Treasury repos and pro-crypto signals from Trump, it has recently staged a short squeeze rebound, quickly surging from around 60,000 to above 75,000 USD. Spot ETF funds are flowing back, and short sellers are concentrated in closing positions, amplifying the rally. As the market leader, its trend is tied to the progress of US regulatory bills and US Treasury yields. The short-term rebound is a resonance of news and short squeeze, with selling pressure from previous trapped positions above; if legislation falls short of expectations or inflation recurs, a rapid pullback will occur. Institutional funds hold a high proportion, liquidity is best, but there is no fundamental support, fully driven by macro factors and sentiment.
$ETH ETH (Ethereum)
This round of rebound shows significantly higher elasticity than BTC, following the broader market surge to surpass 2300 USD, representing a strong catch-up rally. Positive factors include improved regulatory expectations, warming narratives around DeFi and RWA, and PoS staking yields providing cash flow to holders. However, short-term L2 continues to divert mainnet Gas fee income, and US securities classification remains the biggest sword hanging over it. In terms of market behavior, ETH has a higher beta coefficient, rising sharply but often experiencing larger retracements than BTC; with many leveraged derivative positions, liquidation risk rises after rebounds, making it a mainstream coin in the speculative ecosystem narrative.
$TRUMP Trump Coin TRUMP
A pure Meme sentiment coin with no technology or business implementation, its market is entirely tied to Trump's crypto statements and public opinion heat. Recently, the president released crypto-friendly signals, causing a pulse-like surge in this coin, but its sustainability is very poor. The chips are highly concentrated in related entities' hands, posing a high risk of dump by the whales. It has no intrinsic valuation and tends to fall quickly after the hype fades. It is not a mainstream asset, highly speculative, with volatility far exceeding BTC and ETH. Once the news passes, it tends to bleed quickly, suitable only for very short-term sentiment speculation, with the highest risk level.
Overall market: This round of rise is jointly driven by policy expectations, liquidity improvement, and short squeeze, not a complete trend reversal. Going forward, focus will be on US Treasury data and the progress of the CLARITY Act congressional review.Pharaoh directly said that Kashkari and the Treasury Department are performing a counterplay. One says, "The market is fine, no need to intervene," while the other is urgently spending money on buybacks. Their disagreement perfectly reflects the current US debt dilemma. Kashkari, the hawkish guy: The market hasn't collapsed, don't worry unnecessarily. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, known as a hawk in the Federal Reserve, said directly on CBS's "Face the Nation" on August 23: The US debt market is fine, it hasn't malfunctioned. The 10-year yield at 4.7% looks scary, but it was much higher in the 1990s; market trading is normal and liquidity is sufficient. His logic is firm: The Fed only manages inflation and employment; the debt market is the Treasury's responsibility. Regardless of the 30-year yield soaring to 5.3% or debt surpassing 40 trillion, as long as the market can still trade and hasn't collapsed, the Fed shouldn't change policy just to suppress yields. The Treasury got anxious: first spend money to put out the fire before talking. When Kashkari spoke, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had already acted. On August 19, she announced raising the single buyback limit for 10-30 year Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, doubling it. The effect? On the day the news came out, the 30-year yield briefly plunged nearly 10 basis points but bounced back the next day. Goldman Sachs bluntly said: This is a temporary fix, the impact is likely "relatively short-lived" because the Treasury's buyback money still needs to be replenished by issuing new debt. So where is the "fundamental" solution? Pharaoh helps you sort it out: First, inflation is the real switch. Goldman Sachs said it best: lowering inflation is the key to reducing bond yields The most dangerous signal for BTC may have already appeared.
Don't be quick to get swept up by voices like "institutions are bullish" or "the bull market is here."
The latest chip data shows a very subtle divergence in the market:
Holders of 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC are accumulating again.
But the real whales—addresses holding 10,000–100,000 BTC—have shown a clear decline in holdings after peaking on August 21.
What does this mean?
It likely means mid-sized funds are buying while large funds are selling.
The most worrisome thing is never that a whale sells once, but rather:
While the price rises, the largest holding group continues to distribute.
If enough new capital enters the market later to absorb all this selling pressure, BTC could still continue upward, even achieving a new breakout.
But if the price is only driven by sentiment and whales keep offloading chips to chasing buyers, then the more optimistic it looks now, the more likely a rapid pullback will occur later.
So don’t just look at whether the candlestick is up or not right now.
What you really need to watch are three things:
Are the whales still selling?
Are mid-to-large funds still buying?
Can new buying volume continue to absorb the selling pressure?
The most dangerous thing for BTC now isn’t a drop, but when everyone thinks it can only go up, and the smart money has already quietly started rotating.
Short-term you can be bullish, but never blindly chase the rally.
In a bull market, the easiest way to lose money is often not by picking the wrong direction,Wash's Jackson Hole debut is at 22:00 Beijing time on Friday.
Tonight we first look at durable goods orders, while tomorrow night's PCE and GDP revisions are the real warm-up.
The July FOMC held steady with a 9-3 vote, but three members advocated for a rate hike.
The pause still dominates, but a September rate hike is not truly off the table.
What everyone is waiting for is not just "hawk or dove," but whether Wash can present inflation, employment, and the next steps as a coherent, understandable set of rules.
The market has already taken its seat in the exam room early: $BTC near 79,400, $ETH close to 2,500, $XAU holding at 4,660.
Don't treat them all as safe havens.
BTC and ETH are mainly trading liquidity now, while gold is more about fiscal and monetary credit.
If data is hot and Wash turns hawkish again, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising, BTC and ETH will likely take the first hit, and gold will also be knocked by real rates;
If he provides clear pause conditions and yields fall back, BTC and ETH will have greater resilience, and gold can continue to benefit from a weaker dollar.
The biggest fear this week is not hawkishness, but that after all his talk,
the market still doesn't know what to watch next.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 When Zcash rose from the ruins of June, it told the market with a 72% single-week increase: privacy coins are still alive.
On August 23, $ZEC once hit $888, marking the highest level in nearly eight years since 2018. The single-week increase exceeded 70%, with a cumulative rise of about 64% year-to-date, and over 1,770% in the past 12 months. As of August 24, ZEC pulled back to around $838-$844, with a market cap rising to about $13.8 billion, ranking 12th among crypto assets.
The direct catalyst was not a "return of the privacy narrative," but Grayscale's fifth amended filing. On August 21, Grayscale submitted the fifth amended registration statement, proposing to convert the existing Zcash Trust into a spot ETF listed on NYSE Arca, renamed "The Zcash ETF," ticker ZCSH, with an annual management fee of 2.5%. The filing also disclosed that a DCG subsidiary is negotiating to inject about 200,000 ZEC, valued at approximately $110 million, into the trust, which if realized could account for about 34% of the expanded fund's shares.
The derivatives market added fuel to the fire. At its peak, $ZEC futures daily trading volume reached $9.54 billion, open interest rose to $1.76 billion, while spot trading volume was only about $1.06 billion. Leveraged funds are rushing ahead of the yet-to-be-launched product.
This surge is a triple resonance of ETF expectations, derivatives leverage, and tightening supply narratives.
If the Grayscale fund is approved, the rally will continue; otherwise, the leverage will retreat depending on the vote. Welcome crypto friends to apply for United Nations positions and participate in related activities
Model: Peacekeeping-related business scenarios: Combining real cases of allowance distribution in war-torn areas, refugee aid, and wage payments through work-for-relief programs, with a focus on promoting the practical effectiveness of blockchain payments such as "instant settlement, zero network coverage, and full-chain traceability," replacing vague technical concepts with real-world results.
Compliance mechanism promotion scenarios: Clearly publicize that all related applications are incorporated into the official frameworks of the United Nations DHoTS Digital Treasury Center, UNDP Alternative Finance Lab, and WFP "Building Blocks" program.
Technical rules popularization scenarios: Educate partners and relevant practitioners on settlement rules using only regulated fiat stablecoins like USD1, explaining the value of a fully auditable and traceable humanitarian ledger throughout the entire chain. Strategy's massive fundraising without purchasing any BTC, $1.59 billion cash hides signals
Recently, a key institutional signal emerged in the crypto market: from August 17 to 23, Strategy raised a net $2.01 billion by selling its own shares, without buying a single BTC during this funding cycle, completely breaking the previous pattern of fundraising followed by hoarding coins, drawing high market attention.
The company made a clear allocation of this huge fund: $300 million to replenish USD reserves, $136.4 million to repurchase STRC, and the remaining $1.59 billion placed separately into a new USD cash account. This fund is flexible and can be used at any time to increase BTC holdings, repay debt, distribute dividends, or repurchase shares, representing potential incremental buying power, but no concrete action has been taken yet.
As of now, Strategy still holds 840,447 BTC, with a position size close to 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, and an average holding cost of about $75,385, maintaining a strong asset base. In this market cycle, BTC has quickly rebounded from lows, currently quoted between $79,000 and $79,200, with a slight 24-hour increase, which is a suitable range for institutional accumulation, but its pause in buying coins is highly unusual.
The market has derived two core interpretations: one is that the company expects short-term price corrections and deliberately holds coins to wait for lower cost basis; the other is that the institutional strategy is undergoing a major shift, no longer blindly allocating all fundraising funds to BTC, but starting to optimize financial structure, emphasizing cash reserves, debt control, and equity stability, with a more rational investment pace.$ETH late-night rebound to $2,500: Up 31% this week, outperforming BTC, staked ETF surges 31% in five days
This week, it climbed from $1,900 all the way to $2,520, a weekly increase of 31.3%, leaving BTC's 23.6% gain behind by a wide margin. The most eye-catching data: Grayscale's staked ETH ETF rose another 3.56% today, accumulating +31.17% over five days. This surge itself reflects the market's pricing of the staking narrative.
The ETF inflow structure is changing. Last week, ETH ETF net inflows reached $697 million, the best single week since October 2025. Compared to BTC's $1.92 billion, the absolute amount is smaller, but relative to market cap, ETH's ETF capital attraction strength is twice that of BTC. Institutions are voting with their feet, and accelerating their votes.
Staking is the independent narrative for this ETH cycle. Fidelity's application to add staking functionality to the ETH ETF is still pending, allowing up to 100% holdings to be staked. Approval would mark the first compliant staking move. Coupled with 42M+ ETH locked in staking contracts and continuously declining exchange reserves, the circulating supply is getting tighter. When prices rise, there are no coins to sell; this is the fundamental logic behind ETH's greater elasticity compared to BTC in this cycle.
However, the technical side is already somewhat overextended. The stretch from $1,950 to $2,300 was basically a volume-light price surge, and the narrow range will eventually be retested. RSI previously hit 86, indicating extremely hot short-term sentiment. $2,545 is this week's high resistance; a breakout could target the $3,000 psychological level; a pullback to $2,300 is a high-probability event [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh lays it out straight: Don't have too high hopes for Waller.
This guy is scheduled to deliver his first keynote speech as Fed Chair on the evening of August 28 (Friday) at Jackson Hole. But the topic is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy"—clearly giving him room to dodge and weave.
He himself admits the speech is "a blank sheet of paper," and he hasn't decided whether to discuss the macro outlook or provide policy guidance. Barclays outright says he's unlikely to offer near-term policy guidance. Since taking office, he has advocated for a "quieter Fed," deliberately avoiding forward guidance—expecting him to give a clear path? Might as well expect the pyramid to grow an oasis on its own.
But the market can't wait! The 30-year Treasury yield once surged to 5.33%, the highest since 2007. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker said bluntly: "Waller must respond directly to inflation"; Goldman Sachs also warned that vague communication will cause more volatile interest rates.
On Friday night, the market will most likely follow the script of "either triggering stop losses or sweeping short positions." Good trades are made by waiting, not by gambling. Waiting until Waller finishes speaking and the market digests it before making a move is a hundred times more solid than betting on direction. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way $UNITREE
The current market sentiment around UNITREE is quite unique, with the discourse on short video platforms overwhelmingly bearish. Opinions like "overvalued market cap" and "will fail within a few years" are spreading everywhere, and the pessimistic voices have become a consensus.
However, when the market shows such a highly uniform sentiment, it is precisely a moment worth our calm examination. If the company truly harbors significant fundamental risks, large investors would typically take precautionary actions in advance. At present, UNITREE has a very low proportion of circulating shares, with the vast majority of shares locked under restrictions, objectively limiting large-scale short-term selling pressure.
Of course, collective bearish sentiment does not imply any conspiracy; the medium- to long-term stock price trend is ultimately determined by real capital competition and the company's fundamentals. A small float is a double-edged sword: it can lead to rapid upward movement driven by capital, but it also amplifies downward volatility, causing sharp pullbacks with even slight selling pressure.
From an operational strategy perspective, compared to blindly chasing rallies during hot markets, patiently waiting for a pullback and then assessing the buying strength is more prudent. Even if a volume-driven surge occurs later, caution is necessary, as volume spikes are often accompanied by the risk of profit-taking at high levels, and one should not be easily swept up by short-term trends. Additionally, potential selling pressure from future unlocks and the progress of humanoid robot commercialization should be factored in. When trading small float stocks, position control is especially critical.
This information is compiled for reference and does not constitute investment advice.Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million coins to 980,000 coins;
while the nearby $62,000 bar shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we deduced in the possible future scenarios on August 21 (see quote): once chips start to loosen, the price will either stabilize or even pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
Now it seems the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
there was a strong wave of profit-taking, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital absorbing the supply here.
Assuming a new chip peak can really form near $76,000-$77,000, do you remember the "double anchor structure" theory?
Long-term followers of mine should be familiar with it. Once this structure forms, the subsequent BTC pullback is very likely to fall in the middle of the structure.
That is roughly around $68,000-$70,000.
So the question is simple: now it depends on whether the $76,000-$77,000 range can form a meaningful chip concentration area.
Yes! This requires a bit of time. From Sept. 9, longer-dated Treasury buyback operations will increase from $2B to at least $4B per operation through early November. This isn’t QE or a massive liquidity injection, but it could still help ease pressure in the long-end of the Treasury market. If yields respond lower, risk assets could get some breathing room — a potential tailwind for $BTC and $ETH . But I’d watch real yields and liquidity conditions before calling it bullish. For me, the key question is simple: does this translaOn-chain data is often more honest than any trading signal. Last night, the TRUMP project team's actions made many followers uneasy: they directly dumped 1.1 million TRUMP through unilateral liquidity, exchanging it for 2.94 million USDC, with an average transaction price of about $2.68. This was not a simple transfer but a real sell-off, indicating the team has started converting their holdings into stablecoins. What is even more noteworthy is that just the day before, the team had transferred 3.837 million TRUMP to OKX, estimated at nearly $9.33 million at the time. Coins entering exchanges often mean they could be dumped into the market at any time. These two operations combined send a clear signal: the project team is actively reducing their position risk rather than waiting for market sentiment to improve. From the on-chain structure perspective, this sell-off used unilateral liquidity, which usually impacts the market more directly and causes more noticeable slippage. The $2.68 transaction price is a significant pullback compared to previous market highs, indicating the sellers care less about short-term price and more about liquidity realization. This attitude itself makes long positions in the market more cautious. Meanwhile, the performance of the futures market also confirms this tension. In the past 24 hours, BTC liquidations across the network reached about $100 million, ETH even hit $140 million, and TRUMP single-day liquidations were $12.945 million, with large funds liquidated on both long and short sides Here's the situation: On August 24th, a purchase that looked very much like an "institutional statement" pushed Ethereum back into the spotlight. Tom Lee's Bitmine bought about $81 million worth of ETH in the past week, marking its largest weekly purchase since early July. What's even more interesting is that this purchase happened after Ethereum rose about 30% in a single week. Most people might think, "They only chased after the price went up; institutions are just catching the top?" But the logic behind the funds is often not that simple. If it were just short-term chasing, the purchase itself wouldn't be surprising. What’s truly worth observing is what Bitmine considers ETH to be: a trade or a long-term asset allocation. The former cares about whether the price will rise next week; the latter cares about whether Ethereum can become the second core entry point for institutional capital in the crypto market. This also reflects the recent shift in market narratives. Bitcoin moving first often indicates that capital is seeking certainty; continuous buying of Ethereum looks more like capital seeking resilience, ecosystem, and the next phase of growth. It's not about one replacing the other, but about market risk appetite expanding outward. Of course, institutional buying does not guarantee prices will only rise. The cost of buying, holding period, whether they continue to increase holdings, and the relative strength of ETH/BTC are all more important than a news headline. Especially after a rapid price increase, the market can easily interpret a concentrated purchase as trend confirmation, but it might just be a phase of rebalancing. I preferAdditionally, today I also took a small position in $GRASS.
The core logic of this trade is still the divergence observed earlier: volume and open interest are clearly rising, the contract CVD continues to decline, but the price does not follow the active sell orders down, indicating that selling pressure is being absorbed.
With the token unlocking approaching on the 28th, it is possible that some selling pressure comes from holders who unlock tokens and open short positions early to hedge. If these shorts cannot continue to push the price down, they might instead become fuel for a subsequent rally or short squeeze. Therefore, I will only maintain a small position during a potential rally before the unlocking and will execute the preset stop loss.Since early July, the BTC price has risen from about $60,000 to $78,000, an increase of approximately 30%. During the same period, market capital increased from $20.6 billion to $24.9 billion, nearing the high for this phase. It points out that unlike the price rise, the proportion of borrowed funds did not increase in sync. This indicator peaked on August 14 and has been declining since; even though BTC accelerated its rise after August 19, the leverage ratio has not significantly rebounded. It is believed that compared to a market driven by borrowed funds, the current capital structure is healthier; if BTC prices stagnate later and the proportion of borrowed funds rises again, it could become a risk signal to watch $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Today's review:
In the New York session, $BTC and $ETH each had one trade, one took profit, and one hit stop loss.
The BTC trade basically followed the pre-market plan. After the New York open, the price first swept down to clear liquidity at the internal low but did not fall back below the daily open; instead, it found support above the daily open. Seeing the rejection candle close, I chose to go long, and the price smoothly reached the previous high for profit-taking.
When BTC broke the previous high, ETH did not simultaneously break higher, and then two consecutive doji candles appeared at the high level. I believed the upward momentum was starting to weaken and that an SMT reversal might form between BTC and ETH, so I opened a short position on ETH.
The direction was indeed correct in the end, but the trade resulted in a stop loss.
Because I wanted to use a small stop loss to aim for a large move and try to get 2R, I placed the stop loss directly at the highest point of the New York session at that time. The price then swept up again, precisely hitting the stop loss before dropping steadily.
Reviewing this, the problem was not the SMT judgment but that I placed the stop loss too aggressively in pursuit of the 2R on paper.
$SNDK sharply dropped after today's open but then showed a clear V-shaped recovery. If it can maintain the current recovery before the close, there is a chance to form a long lower shadow daily candle today, indicating there is still support below. The original trading logic has not yet failed, so I will continue to hold this initial position.$BEAT Honestly, a slow decline is even more frustrating than a sharp drop. Holding a short position, watching it hover there day after day, neither going up nor down, I was too lazy to even check the market those days. But at that time, I realized one thing clearly: this slow grinding movement most likely means the bulls have really lost strength. If there were funds wanting to push it up, they would have acted already.
Then one night, suddenly a bearish candle smashed down, breaking the support level, releasing all the previous pressure at once. From 0.1363 down to 0.1276, a 63.82% drop is the reward for patience. This saying really hits home when applied to myself. That night, I didn’t rush to act; I just watched the market step by step go down, and strangely felt a sense of calm.
Many people in crypto don’t lose because of the direction they chose, but because they got shaken out during the grinding phase. The lesson this wave taught me is: as long as the original bearish reasons still hold, try to ignore the noise in between. Holding on is stronger than anything.
$BTC $XRP $SNDK experienced a sharp plunge today, dropping straight from 1628.69 down to 1516.90, a steep fall of 112 points, nearly 7%. Many were caught off guard. Here's an objective breakdown of the reasons behind this dive.
1. Concentrated Profit-Taking
SNDK started rising around 1560 on August 22, gaining over 4% in two days, accumulating significant short-term unrealized gains. The 1628 level was a previous resistance peak, where trapped positions and short-term profit-taking converged, creating selling pressure that triggered a rapid decline.
2. Drag from Overall Sentiment in the Storage Sector
The AI storage sector had seen substantial gains earlier, but market divergence began to appear, with signs of capital taking profits and exiting. Peers like Micron and SK Hynix weakened simultaneously, and sector-wide correlation caused quantitative passive selling to further amplify SNDK's pullback.
3. Sensitivity of High-Valuation Stocks
As a strong cyclical storage stock, its price is very sensitive to capital flows. Even without negative news, it can experience sharp rises and falls. When sentiment drives the price up, if the bulls fail to sustain momentum, a rapid and significant retracement can occur.
Key observation point is the 1500 support level. If it holds, it indicates high-level consolidation and shakeout; if it breaks decisively, short-term correction may deepen. High-level cyclical stocks are highly volatile, so position sizing and stop-loss management are crucial.
This information is shared for reference and does not constitute investment advice. $xSNDK SanDisk drops another 7% intraday: evaporates 16.8% in five days, $93.9 billion orders can't withstand earnings week selling pressure
Opened lower and dropped sharply, then narrowed losses. SanDisk opened lower today and fell all the way to $1,416, closing near $1,486, down 6.9%. A cumulative drop of 16.8% over five days, down 37% from the $2,354 high. But YTD it's still up 526%, with a market cap of $217.6 billion and a P/E of 20x. This is not a crash, but a sharp turnover after a surge.
Why the drop: a chain of de-risking during earnings week. NVDA reported earnings Wednesday, and the whole market reduced positions before the event. The storage sector was collectively hammered today, with SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix all hit. Coupled with last week's 30-year US Treasury yield approaching multi-year highs, the AI hardware sector, which is high valuation and capital expenditure dependent on cheap long-term money, took the brunt. Last week, the US stock market weekly chart ended a three-week rally, with the Nasdaq down 2.05%.
$93.9 billion orders locked in. Eight NBM long-term contracts, total value no less than $93.9 billion, average term about 4 years, covering half of capacity in FY2027 and two-thirds by FY2028. Musk specifically named storage as a core AI bottleneck, and Goldman Sachs predicts AI token consumption will increase 24-fold by 2030. On Xueqiu, some share long-term logic: locking capacity with long-term contracts is more important than profit surges because it eliminates the biggest uncertainty of the cycle.
Golden pit or trend top? Optimists say: P/E only 20x, $93.9 billion orders locked in as a floor, the pullback is a buying opportunity Fasset has secured $68 million in funding, reaching a valuation of $1 billion and successfully joining the unicorn ranks.
What’s interesting is not just the valuation.
Fasset is building a sector that could potentially surpass cryptocurrency trading itself: stablecoin cross-border payments.
Its proprietary network connects various banks, payment institutions, and liquidity providers. Meanwhile, the company plans to increase investment in AI banking services, stablecoin settlement, and tokenized asset sectors.
And the investor SBI is no ordinary financial backer.
This Japanese financial giant has long been deeply involved in digital assets, having invested in XRP’s underlying infrastructure, USDC issuer Circle, and the DeFi project $MORPHO. It has a presence across the entire crypto chain.
This tells me one thing: traditional big finance truly values not necessarily coin price speculation, but the real-world application of stablecoins in cross-border settlement.
Fasset has been profitable for 12 consecutive months, with an annualized trading volume exceeding $40 billion, covering 125 countries, and is no longer just a conceptual story. SBI’s continued investment represents Asian traditional financial institutions treating on-chain payments as the next generation of cross-border remittance.
Information shared does not constitute investment advice $BTC The focus of Bitcoin's bullish and bearish battles appears to be the candlestick pattern and capital flows, but what truly determines the long-term direction is often the broader underlying currency tone. In recent market discussions, a core variable that has often been overlooked has resurfaced: the certainty of currency depreciation triggered by the U.S. debt crisis is becoming a deeper logic suppressing bear confidence. This pressure does not come from single-day fluctuations but from an irreversible trend—when the purchasing power of fiat currencies continues to be diluted, scarce crypto assets naturally become one of the main sources of funds. From a market performance perspective, virtual assets tend to be the most sensitive to these types of expectations, with price discovery much faster than traditional financial markets. This is not because the crypto market is larger; on the contrary, it is precisely because of its strong global liquidity and continuous trading hours that it can be the first to factor macro expectations into pricing. However, it is worth noting that this "first rise" does not mean the global impact is the deepest. To some extent, the crypto market acts more like a mirror, preemptively reflecting the shadow of debt problems, and the real ripples will take time to spread to the broader real economy. If debt pressures are transmitted to commodities, especially food and energy markets, over longer cycles, the vulnerabilities of global supply chains will be further amplified. Rising crude oil prices drive up transportation and production costs, while food shortages may trigger chain reactions at the social level. This reasoning is not sensational, but rather a common path in historical credit currency system crises. When basic material prices spiral out of control and geopolitical frictions arise🔥 THE MONEY ISN’T LEAVING CRYPTO — IT’S MOVING.
This is what capital rotation looks like.
$BTC is holding strong. $ETH is starting to catch momentum. And now liquidity is searching for higher-beta opportunities like $ZEC and $HYPE.
The pattern is simple: BTC leads → ETH confirms → capital hunts for the next big outperformers.
The real question now isn’t if money is rotating.
It’s where does it rotate next?
#Crypto #BTC #ETHWipes1.1BShorts #BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500
#DailyOrbit $FLOW is up around 10% today while most of the market is barely moving. 👀
The bigger story: Flow recently raised transaction fees 2–4x while reducing new FLOW issuance as network usage covers more staking costs.
That gives today's breakout a real tokenomics angle — higher activity can mean less dilution.
Sustainable repricing, or another rotation trade?#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap #BTC Approaching $80,000, But What Really Matters This Round Is Not "How Much It Has Risen"
BTC's rebound has pushed from around $76,600 all the way to $79,998, running almost along the upper Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart.
However, I think the most important question now is not "can it break through $80,000," but rather—whether there is genuine incremental buying above $80,000.
From the market perspective, this rally is strong.
The price has climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, with moving averages starting to form a bullish alignment; volume has increased in sync with the rise, indicating this is not just a low-volume retracement. The $79,000–$79,200 range has become the first layer of short-term support, and as long as this level is not broken again, the bullish structure remains intact for now.
The real resistance lies near $80,000.
This is both a psychological round number and the first obvious point of selling pressure after this rapid rise. BTC peaked at $79,998 before pulling back, showing that some profit-taking has started near $80,000.
But this time there is a clear difference from previous rebounds: spot ETF funds have returned.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days last week, totaling nearly $2 billion, which is a very important signal of institutional capital warming up recently. (Investopedia)
At the same time, this rally is not just coming from within the crypto market.
After the US Treasury adjusted long-term bond repo arrangements, long-term yields were suppressed, the dollar weakened, and the market resumed trading liquidity improvements; combined with short covering, BTC completed a very sharp valuation repair in a short time. (CoinDesk)
So I now divide the market into two stages:
The first half is liquidity expectation improvement + short squeeze;
The next stage is the real determinant of how far the trend can go—whether spot funds can continue to take over.
If BTC can break through $80,000 with volume and hold $79,000–$79,200 on the pullback, I would be more inclined to believe the market has moved from "oversold repair" into a new trend continuation phase.
But if ETF inflows continue and BTC still cannot effectively hold above $80,000, then caution should be heightened.
Because the most dangerous signal in a rally is never the absence of good news, but:
Good news remains, funds are still flowing in, but the price cannot move up.
Now $80,000 is not just a technical resistance level, but more like the market's first real test of the quality of this rally.
What do you think? Will BTC hold above $80,000 directly this time, or will it first have a deeper pullback before breaking through?
:::$BTC