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#伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码
Garibabadi publicly stated: The Strait of Hormuz is currently "completely closed." Iran has reached an understanding with Oman regarding vessel passage, but "will not enter the implementation phase until the US fulfills its commitments."
Iran is in no hurry to reopen because the prolonged closure of the strait puts pressure on the US and also causes losses to Iran. However, reopening unconditionally would be tantamount to admitting that extreme pressure tactics have worked. More importantly, over the past two weeks, the US military has quietly opened a route on the southern side, with 15 to 20 oil tankers passing daily, transporting nearly 10 million barrels per day, with over 80% of vessels bypassing the northern route controlled by Iran. Iran's actual control over the strait is weakening; if it does not turn "opening the door" into a bargaining chip, this card will be wasted. So this is not a sign of weakness but an upgrade of the bargaining chip—reshuffling Hormuz from a "military card" into a "negotiation card."
The market immediately reacted. On the evening of August 30, Brent crude oil in the dark market broke through $88 per barrel, and Bitcoin simultaneously surged, briefly surpassing $78,000.
Iran is saying, "I can open it, but you have to offer something in return." The problem is, the US is unwilling even to negotiate. Whether this door opens or not depends not on Iran's urgency but on how long oil prices can hold above $88.$ETH 's sharp surge last night and the steep drop this morning
are the result of a fierce clash in a short time between bullish short squeeze sentiment and macro/geopolitical negative factors.
Essentially, this is a game between institutional buying of spot ETFs and selling in the derivatives market along with macro risks.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Is the Federal Reserve setting a FOMO trap?
$BTC holds around $78K, while $ETH is weaker, making this rebound far from convincing. After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Walsh emphasized that inflation risks remain, raising expectations for a rate hike in September.
Currently, the biggest catalysts are employment → PCE → Fed expectations → Treasury yields → ETF fund flows. If these factors align, $BTC may hold $78K, and $ETH could also rebound. If they turn unfavorable for crypto, "FOMO then sell-off" could become the market's most painful trap. $SOL $TRUMP $DOGE $ETH market is in a state of contradiction, with both bulls and bears searching for direction:
· Key battle: $2,400. Many analysts believe that if Ethereum can firmly hold the key psychological and technical level of $2,400, it indicates that buyers are still in control. This level is seen as the last line of defense for short-term bulls.
· Stunning liquidation leverage. In the past 24 hours, ETH has been the asset with the most severe liquidations across the network, with total liquidations reaching $54.1 million, of which 85% were short positions liquidated. This means that as long as the price moves slightly upward, the short positions will be forced to liquidate, potentially driving a short-term rebound. Conversely, if ETH falls below $2,388, the cumulative long liquidations on major exchanges will reach as high as $903 million, implying the market could collapse instantly.
· Range-bound consolidation, direction unclear. From a technical perspective, ETH is currently consolidating within a large range of $2,380 - $2,525, with its movement highly correlated to Bitcoin. RSI has fallen from overbought levels, bullish momentum is weakening, representing a typical "night before choosing direction." The market has just validated a typical "pump and dump" with action. Just the day before, a certain team injected $TRUMP unilaterally into the Meteora liquidity pool, creating a bullish atmosphere; before the words were out, all the USDC in the pool had been withdrawn, securing profits. Although the chart does not show direct signs of a dump, this unilateral pool injection tactic essentially just makes the sell-off more covert.
What is even more intriguing is that this is not the first time. Reviewing the token's historical performance, every seemingly strong rebound ultimately became a window for liquidity exit. The current market buying logic is almost entirely based on the expectation that "Trump will continue to loudly call trades." However, on-chain data signals the exact opposite: every public call is often accompanied by signs of the team cashing out at the top.
The real sword hanging overhead is the timeline. On the 18th of next month, 28.7 million $TRUMP will be unlocked, representing a potential selling pressure of about $77 million at the current price. This means that even if the price stabilizes in the short term, the subsequent selling pressure may further increase. Some short sellers have already started positioning, waiting for this milestone.
In the face of this situation, emotional chasing of price increases is clearly unwise. Rather than being driven by short-term fluctuations, it is better to calmly examine the unlocking schedule and on-chain capital flows before making judgments.
Risk warning: Token unlocking and liquidity operations carry significant uncertainties. Please assess risks rationally and make decisions cautiously. $TRUMP#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
This week, the U.S. employment data will enter a dense release period, with JOLTS job openings, ADP private employment, initial jobless claims, and the August nonfarm payroll report coming out one after another. This labor market report card will be the core reference for the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in September.
Looking back at earlier employment signals, July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, combined with a cumulative downward revision of 103,000 jobs for May and June. A series of revised data have signaled a gradual cooling in hiring demand, and signs of a turning point in the labor market have begun to emerge.
At the Jackson Hole Symposium, Waller's debut speech delivered a hawkish signal to the market. He clearly stated that current inflation remains above the 2% target, the overall financial environment has not yet entered a restrictive zone, and monetary policy should still prioritize restoring price stability. Following this speech, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike quickly rose from 35% to nearly 60%, U.S. Treasury yields increased, and risk assets such as gold and Bitcoin simultaneously came under pressure and declined.
The upcoming batch of employment data will become a two-way stress test: on one hand, verifying the endogenous resilience of the U.S. economy; on the other, observing whether the labor market cooling trend can continue. The final strength or weakness of the data will directly determine how much policy maneuvering room Waller's hawkish anti-inflation stance has left. Subsequent market volatility is worth close attention.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
The highlight of this week’s market is undoubtedly the intensive U.S. employment data, which will directly test Waller's policy stance.
Next, we will successively see JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and the highly anticipated August nonfarm payrolls. Honestly, this set of employment data basically sets the tone for the Fed’s policy expectations in September.
Looking back at previous data, signals have already been released: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and combined with downward revisions of 103,000 for May and June, it is clear that U.S. hiring demand is cooling.
However, Waller’s remarks at Jackson Hole were hawkish; he clearly stated that inflation remains above the 2% target, financial conditions are not tight enough, and monetary policy focus still needs to suppress inflation. After this speech, the market’s probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% to nearly 60%, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and gold and Bitcoin simultaneously came under pressure and declined.
So this week is very critical. We need to watch two things: whether economic resilience still exists, and whether the labor market cooling is truly taking effect.
If employment remains strong, Waller’s hawkish logic will be further confirmed, and the crypto market will continue to face pressure; but if employment data weakens significantly, it will limit his space for tough anti-inflation measures, and market sentiment will see a turnaround.
For crypto traders, do not blindly open heavy positions this week; every piece of employment data could cause drastic market fluctuations. The steering wheel of the market’s direction is temporarily in the hands of U.S. labor data.Looking at the index performance, the previous US trading day was not weak: $SPY rose 0.47%, $QQQ rose 0.42%, and $NVDA (Nvidia) also posted a 1.32% gain. However, if you look at the intraday structure, the signals from the market are not as optimistic as the index gains. SPY and QQQ both retreated from their intraday highs, closing near their day's lows; Nvidia hit a high of $229.26 and finally closed at $217.55, also near its intraday low. Meanwhile, $TSLA (Tesla) fell 3.89%, $MU (Micron Technology) dropped 3.51%, and $SNDK (SanDisk) fell 6.96%. Although the index continued to rise, high-beta tech stocks and some semiconductor stocks have already cooled off first. This is a typical structure of "index stability with internal risk appetite declining." 1. US stocks closed higher on the surface, but funds did not continue to chase highers SPY peaked at $775.30 and finally closed at $769.35; QQQ peaked at $724.13 before closing at $716.43. Neither index fell below the previous trading day's closing price, so the market still has support, but funds are not actively taking hold of intraday highs. Nvidia's performance better reflects this divergence: the stock opened high and continued to rise, but eventually almost returned to the intraday low. Although it closed with a 1.32% gain, it actually showed a clear rally and pullback. If market risk appetite is in a comprehensive recovery phase, you should usually look at indices and tech leadersYesterday, the US-Iran situation escalated again, with the US military striking Iranian targets, followed by missile retaliation from Iran, rapidly intensifying the geopolitical conflict.
The market's first reaction was very direct: risk aversion sentiment rose, risk assets came under pressure, and cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH simultaneously experienced significant plunges.
Many people ask: Isn't BTC "digital gold"? Why does it fall when war breaks out?
Because in the short term, BTC still behaves more like a high-volatility risk asset. When the market truly panics, liquidity is the primary concern, not long-term value.
More importantly, crude oil.
Brent crude oil has climbed back near $90, and Asian stock markets have clearly weakened. The Japanese Nikkei index fell over 2% at one point, and the South Korean stock market also dropped more than 2%.
If the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, especially if the Strait of Hormuz faces substantial risk, further oil price increases could push global inflation expectations higher again.
And what does rising inflation mean?
It means the Federal Reserve's rate cut space may be squeezed, or the market might reprice "higher rates for longer," which is unfavorable for risk assets like BTC.
So, I would not rush to buy the dip next.
The key level to watch for BTC is whether it can stabilize again around $78,000.
If it can quickly recover, it indicates this drop was more of an emotional shock; if it fails to hold and oil prices continue to rise, BTC may need to guard against further support testing.
War is just the trigger; what truly determines BTC's trend are the dollar, interest rates, liquidity, and capital. $ZEC privacy narrative, 24h increase of 4.46%, OI surged 11.86%, Cryptopanic overseas sentiment heat rapidly rising. Risk point: once the privacy narrative news heat cools down, even if OI remains, the coin price will quickly fall back.
$SOL: Popularity is not driven by news hype, DefiLlama's TVL and DEX trading volume continue to accumulate, representing fundamentals slowly being realized, making the market trend much more sustainable.
$DOGE: The meme sector has not yet exploded, 24h slight increase of 0.68%, liquidation pressure is not large, memes often catch up in the later stages of the market, so do not have overly high expectations for DOGE at this stage.
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under further scrutiny
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The most interesting thing about ETH right now is not how much it has risen, but that funds and price are in conflict.
My conclusion: moderately bullish in the medium term, but do not chase in the short term.
On August 28, the US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $102 million, with BlackRock ETHA contributing about $83.8 million in a single day. Institutional funds are indeed still buying.#BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults $ETH 's sharp surge last night and the steep drop this morning
are the result of a fierce clash in a short time between bullish short squeeze sentiment and macro/geopolitical negative factors.
Essentially, this is a game between institutional buying of spot ETFs and selling in the derivatives market along with macro risks.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Over the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support.#BTCGoldCorrelation Looking at the index performance, the previous US trading day was not weak: $SPY rose 0.47%, $QQQ rose 0.42%, and $NVDA (Nvidia) also posted a 1.32% gain. However, if you look at the intraday structure, the signals from the market are not as optimistic as the index gains. SPY and QQQ both retreated from their intraday highs, closing near their day's lows; Nvidia hit a high of $229.26 and finally closed at $217.55, also near its intraday low. Meanwhile, $TSLA (Tesla) fell 3.89%, $MU (Micron Technology) dropped 3.51%, and $SNDK (SanDisk) fell 6.96%. Although the index continued to rise, high-beta tech stocks and some semiconductor stocks have already cooled off first. This is a typical structure of "index stability with internal risk appetite declining." 1. US stocks closed higher on the surface, but funds did not continue to chase highers SPY peaked at $775.30 and finally closed at $769.35; QQQ peaked at $724.13 before closing at $716.43. Neither index fell below the previous trading day's closing price, so the market still has support, but funds are not actively taking hold of intraday highs. Nvidia's performance better reflects this divergence: the stock opened high and continued to rise, but eventually almost returned to the intraday low. Although it closed with a 1.32% gain, it actually showed a clear rally and pullback. If market risk appetite is in a comprehensive recovery phase, you should usually look at indices and tech leadersAfter NVDA released its earnings report, I added some more MU shares. This time, Nvidia's earnings actually gave me a pretty interesting signal.
Everyone is focused on NVDA's revenue beating expectations again and AWS adding 2 million more GPUs, but I paid more attention to one detail: NVDA's Q2 gross margin was 75%, and the Q3 guidance dropped to 74%, partly due to rising memory costs. #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults BTC did not continue to crash over the weekend, but it also did not reclaim 80K. The market's focus has now shifted from "chasing the rally" to "verifying the real support at 77K–78K": The ETF suddenly turned to -$201.9M last Friday, and Warsh clearly put inflation back as the top priority, indicating that short-term macro pressure is significantly higher than a week ago.
① BTC: Stable around 78K over the weekend, but 80K remains a resistance
This morning, BTC is roughly around $78,100–$78,200, with little change in the past 24 hours. After failing to break 81K on Friday, the structure is now very clear:
77K–78K = primary support zone
80K = level that must be reclaimed
81K–86K = real heavy resistance zone above
I'm not in a hurry to look at higher targets now. If BTC cannot firmly reclaim 80K, talking about 85K is meaningless.
② ETF: This is the variable to watch most closely today
Farside final data confirms:
On August 28, BTC Spot ETF net outflow was -$201.9M.
Among them:
BlackRock IBIT -$33.4M
Fidelity FBTC -$49.7M
ARKB -$114.9M
Whereas the previous day, August 27, was still +$242.3M.
So this is not simply a "slowdown in inflows," but a clear reversal in direction#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
This week, the U.S. will consecutively release JOLTS, ADP, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls.
The market is so focused because Wash just emphasized at Jackson Hole that inflation remains above the 2% target, and monetary policy must still prioritize price stability.
1. If employment remains stable, Wash will be more confident.
Wash's current logic is simple: inflation hasn't returned to target, and the labor market hasn't shown obvious signs of a sharp slowdown yet.
So as long as this week's employment data holds up, the market will be more convinced that the Fed still has room to stay hawkish.
2. The problem is employment is already showing signs of cooling.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were cumulatively revised down by 103,000.
This indicates that hiring demand is weakening.
If upcoming JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm data continue to be weak, the market will revisit the discussion: will tightening to curb inflation end up hurting employment even more?
3. What really gets decided this week is how much rate hike space remains.
After Jackson Hole, market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly increased, and U.S. Treasury yields have risen accordingly.
So this week's employment data is not just ordinary data; it’s more like a test of Wash's hawkish judgment.
If employment is strong, his stance will be more supported; if employment weakens significantly, the space for further rate hikes will be compressed.
What the market is really waiting for now is whether the data can prove that the U.S. economy can still withstand higher interest rates. After Nvidia's earnings landed, Dell and Broadcom took over as the core keys to verifying whether AI demand can spread to servers, networks, and enterprise software. The market conflict focuses on the matching degree between the spillover effect of computing power and the high valuation of tech stocks.
On the eve of earnings releases, Dell fell about 2% this week, Broadcom dropped over 1%, and Snowflake declined nearly 1%, indicating that long positions are actively retreating to avoid risks during the earnings verification period. In terms of driving factors, institutional positions are most sensitive to the growth rate of AI software subscription revenue, followed by the year-on-year growth rate of orders for servers and network equipment, and lastly the transmission of macro risk appetite.
The bullish scenario is based on Dell's earnings on September 1 proving smooth AI server deliveries, and on September 2 Broadcom and Snowflake demonstrating the ability to convert network hardware and cloud data subscriptions into revenue. If Dell and Broadcom's orders continue to expand and Snowflake confirms accelerated subscription revenue, risk appetite in the tech sector will be restored, driving funds to flow back into the hardware and software chains.
The failure signal for this bullish scenario is hardware order growth meeting expectations but AI conversion rates on the software side stagnating, which would cause valuation increases to be limited to a very few leading manufacturing segments, making it difficult to drive overall sector recovery.
The bearish scenario occurs if enterprise software subscription conversion falls short of expectations, or if the growth rate of server and network equipment orders shows signs of slowing. Once earnings cannot support current high valuations, the position squeeze effect will quickly reverse from the software side to the network hardware side, triggering a phased valuation correction in the tech sector.
The failure signal for the bearish scenario is that although valuation multiples come under pressure after earnings are announced, the guidance from related companies significantly exceeds expectations, thereby quickly digesting high valuation risks through earnings certainty.
In the next 7 days, key focus should be on Dell's AI server order guidance on September 1, as well as Broadcom's network equipment orders and Snowflake's subscription revenue conversion data on September 2.
#Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验Today, Bitcoin's low dropped to 769, you can try to enter a small position between 769-773 to go long
Resistance is at 790-792
Keep your position light, keep your position light, keep your position light — important things said three times #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $OKB is at 110 now. Early this morning, the US-Iran conflict escalated, putting overall market pressure. BTC dropped from 78,000 to 77,400, and OKB followed, falling from 114 back to around 110, down more than 3 points. This kind of geopolitical event is a typical black swan shock, driven by short-term sentiment and unrelated to fundamentals. On the X Layer side, TVL is still at 116 million, and the ecosystem fund has just been established; these won't disappear just because of tensions in the Middle East. In the short term, it depends on whether the 108-110 range can hold. If it holds, this pullback is a buying opportunity; if not, it may go lower. After all, it bounced from 107 to 116 in the past few days, rising nearly 10 points, with many profit-taking positions. Using bad news to wash out some positions is actually healthier. Just hold and watch for now, wait until the situation becomes clearer, no rush to act. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $SOL BTC has finally reclaimed the $78,000 level, and ETH has also returned above 2,460. The short-term support at 77,000 held firm, and the panic selling triggered by Warsh's speech has basically been digested.
But the ETF capital flow is interesting: on August 28, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about 200 million, breaking a streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows; meanwhile, ETH spot ETFs actually had a net inflow of about 100 million, marking the 10th consecutive day of positive inflows. It's not that money is leaving, but rather institutions are rotating their portfolios internally, shifting risk appetite from Bitcoin to Ethereum and on-chain application sectors.
On the macro front, Warsh emphasized that "inflation remains the top priority," with September rate hike expectations pushed to about 60%. Previously, BTC dropped from 81,400 to 76,800, dragging down nearly 480 million in leveraged positions. Now, BTC holding steady above 77,000 is the baseline; a true sentiment reversal depends on whether the 80,000-81,000 range can break out with volume. For ETH, support near 2,500 is key, and only a breakout there would signal a regained momentum.
Both short-term bulls and bears have been shaken out, so before the direction becomes clear, it's best to stay cautious and observe, reduce leverage, and wait for confirmation signals from ETF flows and USD interest rate expectations. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 A single statement from the Federal Reserve caused 97,000 liquidations in the crypto market — How exactly do macro policies impact the crypto market?
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve Chair delivered a clearly hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, with one core message: fighting inflation remains the top priority, and rate hikes are not over yet.
The market reacted sharply: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September surged from 30% to nearly 60%, gold plunged nearly 3% in a single day, and Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies crashed simultaneously, resulting in nearly 97,000 liquidations within one day.
Many newcomers may be confused: Aren't cryptocurrencies "decentralized"? Why does the crypto market shake so violently just because the Fed said something?
Interest Rates: The "Anchor" of All Asset Pricing
To understand this, remember a core logic: interest rates are the price of money and the anchor for pricing all risk assets.
When the Fed raises rates, it means the risk-free return on the dollar rises (for example, saving in banks or buying U.S. Treasuries becomes more profitable). This triggers a chain reaction:
1. Capital flows back from risk assets: money moves from highly volatile areas like stocks and crypto markets to safer U.S. Treasuries and dollar deposits.
2. Borrowing costs rise: leveraged traders face higher financing costs, are forced to reduce positions, which can trigger cascading liquidations.
3. Dollar strengthens: assets priced in dollars like Bitcoin become more expensive for non-U.S. investors, weakening buying demand. BTC holding near $77,784 while ETH and SOL underperform looks more like defensive positioning within crypto than broad risk appetite. The market is rewarding liquidity and durability, not beta.
With attention split between BTC versus gold flows, oil-sensitive geopolitical risk, and AI earnings, I expect BTC dominance to remain firm until macro uncertainty clears. For now, strength at the top of the market is not a green light for the rest.
Just my read, not advice.SK Hynix is still falling, but the big players have already started counting their money!
Go with the flow to enjoy the benefits, go against it and you’ll suffer; don’t fight against money.
News: All the good news has been priced in, now comes the bad news.
Supply delay confirmed: SemiAnalysis has solid evidence of a design flaw in the HBM4 base chip, Rubin platform supply delayed, directly shaking the 2027 earnings growth logic.
Intel foundry doubts: “Considering Intel” = a smokescreen for TSMC’s tight capacity allocation, exposing clear technical disadvantages.
Capital flow: Shorts locked in the 1180-1200 liquidation zone.
1-hour net outflow of 3.09 million, 4-hour cumulative outflow of 6.43 million. The liquidation map shows dense long positions between 1180-1200 — every 1% price drop triggers a chain liquidation.
$SKHYNIX technicals dropped to 1171 with pitifully low volume; no one dares to catch the falling knife;
Dasheng’s trading advice: Enter short positions near 1190, aggressive followers can short at the current price. Target near 1130.
Dasheng’s view: I’ve been in US stocks for 3 years, HBM4 delay is a fundamental-level bearish factor, not something that can be saved by Intel foundry as a smokescreen. 1170 is not the bottom, there’s still room below.Michael Saylor tweeted "We're back," which is a signal that something big is coming.
According to historical patterns, Strategy announces an increase in Bitcoin Tracker holdings the day after. The last increase was on June 22, and it has been paused for two months.
We might see a new BTC purchase announcement tomorrow. Saylor never plays around; every time he comes back, he invests real money.The valuation logic of the crypto market is undergoing a fundamental shift—from speculating on concepts to focusing on revenue!❗
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer recently made a very clear point: apart from BTC, more and more crypto assets are being evaluated using frameworks similar to stocks and bonds, focusing on cash flow and revenue capabilities rather than just stories.
The turning signals are actually quite obvious. On the regulatory side, the atmosphere has relaxed after the Ripple case, and the new SEC no longer simply labels "distributing earnings to holders" as "illegal securities," leaving room for compliance exploration. On the product side, it's more intuitive: Hyperliquid uses the vast majority of its fee income to repurchase and burn HYPE, with a considerable annual protocol revenue scale, and the market has repriced the market cap/revenue multiple; among the high-revenue on-chain protocols sorted by Grayscale, projects like PUMP have very low income-to-market-cap ratios, and some high-quality on-chain assets have valuation multiples in the single digits, starting to be accounted for like growth stocks.
Institutions are also anchoring this trend, with some investment banks providing mid-to-long-term target ranges for BTC, reflecting that compliant funds are beginning to seriously model it. But BTC itself has no cash flow and cannot be rigidly valued by P/E ratio; it follows the digital gold path: scarcity, decentralization, macro hedge. Tokens that should truly be valued by revenue are those with fees, buybacks, protocol profits, and real use cases. When selecting coins next, don't just look at narrative hype—check revenue, check buybacks, check user retention. Not investment advice. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Fundamental Research Report $FET / Fetch.ai (AI/Computing Power) $0.15 (24h -0.24%)
Straight to the point: Fetch.ai ($FET) comprehensive score 33/100, rating mainly relies on narrative. Breaking down the three layers: company team resources are tight, protocol network usage evidence is weak, token value transmission still needs observation.
Project overview: Fetch.ai (token $FET), AI/computing power sector. Focuses on AI Agent infrastructure. Competitors include VIRTUAL, TAO. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour; A100 monthly rent is $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding; suppliers don’t need centralized approval; idle GPUs become available supply. Customer price is $50-$500/month, payment in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: main evidence from announcements, no verifiable usage yet. Latest version not found, 0 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $79.04M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income not disclosed, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 0 valid commits in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private/public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 2,714,384,546.672, circulating 2,261,507,898.8082504 (83.3%), FDV $403.60M, next unlock not disclosed (percentage of circulation not disclosed), annualized burn/buyback no clear buyback burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Fetch.ai $336.26M, VIRTUAL undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Fetch.ai $403.60M, VIRTUAL undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Fetch.ai undisclosed, VIRTUAL undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Fetch.ai undisclosed, VIRTUAL undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $336.26M, FDV $403.60M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic scenario: $336.26M discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic scenario revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final conclusion: insufficient evidence, mainly narrative (score 33/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively reasonable or undervalued compared to fundamentals, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, re-evaluation needed.
That's all, judge for yourself.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitThe biggest shock of the week hasn't been announced yet 😅
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and finally Friday's nonfarm payrolls, data keeps coming one after another. Sigh, the market probably won't calm down this week.
Walsh has already put "inflation priority" on the table. As long as employment doesn't show obvious weakness, the hawks have reason to stay tough; conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls really surprise on the downside again, the scary rate hike expectations from a few days ago might have to be pulled back.
So $BTC tossing around near $80,000 these days doesn't surprise me at all. Breakouts before the data lands are really hard to tell if they're genuine or not.Those who have truly experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets will find:
The story is always changing its skin, but what survives the cycles is not the narrative, but real demand, continuous capital accumulation, and an iterative ecosystem. Things that double in a day are exciting, but mostly just liquidity bubbles; what truly remains are base assets that are used, built, and allocated even during bear markets.
The crypto foundation still focuses on BTC and ETH. Bitcoin's narrative is becoming clearer: from a high-risk speculative asset, it is gradually being adopted by institutions as digital gold. ETFs, corporate treasuries, and traditional capital entering the market change the holder structure and underlying volatility, no longer just retail sentiment-driven. Short-term movements are influenced by the Federal Reserve's path and dollar interest rates, while the long-term anchor is scarcity and compliant access.
ETH is more like the on-chain financial settlement layer. Performance fees and L2 competition are real pressures, but DeFi, stablecoins, asset tokenization, and settlement demands remain deeply tied to the Ethereum ecosystem. It may not be the most glamorous, but it is the main foundation for value flow at the application layer.
Looking at Solana, high throughput and low fees bring activity; payments, trading, and some new applications have real traffic, but valuation elasticity is also higher, with more volatile swings during macro tightening. It can be allocated, but should not be confused with core base holdings.
Make money on sentiment in bull markets, test the quality in bear markets. Core positions hold BTC/ETH, flexible allocation to SOL and others, small positions in altcoins for entertainment, keep cash waiting for Federal Reserve expectations to materialize. Not investment advice. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Weekend market closed, $CRCLCIRCLE current price 86.2, down 2.47% in 24h, the underlying stock dropped sharply by 7.53% on Friday, while the token only has a 1% discount, the contradiction explained below.
📰 News: The news that banks are targeting stablecoin issuance directly hammered the underlying stock by 7.53%, even a new buy rating couldn't stop concerns about competition.
🔧 Technical: Daily RSI14=62.4 still relatively strong, but MACD death cross with expanding green bars, broke below MA7 but still above MA25, short-term momentum has indeed weakened.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens down 0.82%, US stock market closed for the weekend with no underlying stock anchor, tokens digesting negative news on their own tend to amplify volatility.
🎯 Today's view: Bearish, underlying stock technical breakdown combined with stablecoin competition clouds, token premium likely to shrink further.
📊 Token 86.20 (-2.47%) | Underlying stock 87.14 (-7.53%) | Premium -1.08% | US stock market closed for the weekend
💎 Summary: Watch if the underlying stock can hold MA25 and whether banks will follow up with actions.
#USStockTokens
#StablecoinSector
#CRCLOutlook By spring 2015, Wall Street had already begun serious discussions about whether AMD would go bankrupt. This chip company, which once directly challenged Intel, saw first-quarter revenue drop to $1.03 billion. Personal computer demand continued to shrink, the server market barely made sense, and graphics cards were suppressed by NVIDIA. By the end of the year, AMD had a net loss of $660 million, with only $785 million in cash and short-term investments, and debt reaching $2.26 billion. Even more dangerous, AMD was developing a new processor architecture that would not generate revenue in the short term. R&D costs had to be paid today, and whether the product would succeed would be known in two years. Lisa Su had no magical financing button. What she could do was sell assets, streamline product lines, rely on gaming console chips to maintain revenue, and then bet limited engineering resources on the "Zen" architecture. In 2017, Ryzen and EPYC officially went public. That bet later helped AMD re-enter the PC and server markets, and secured a highly valuable ticket to the 2026 AI capital spending wave. In the latest quarter released on August 4, AMD's revenue reached $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year; Data center revenue was $6.72 billion, up 107% year-on-year. The earnings report exceeded market expectations, and the stock price fell 6.6% the next day. The message from the capital markets is straightforward: surviving is a story from a long time ago. Today's AMD still needs to prove it can invest hundreds of billions of dollars in global AI infrastructure#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
The AI earnings season isn't over yet; Broadcom and Dell are taking over, and the key is whether computing power can be passed on to servers and software.
Nvidia's wave just passed, and this week Broadcom and Dell are about to release their results.
Dell reports on September 1, Broadcom and Snowflake on September 2.
On the hardware side, the test is whether orders for AI servers and networking equipment can continue to rise; on the software side, it's about whether cloud data demand can turn into stable subscription revenue. Nvidia has already proven that demand for computing power remains, but the market is now starting to ask a question: can AI money spread from chips to servers, networks, and enterprise software to support a broader tech stock valuation?
Dell fell nearly 2% this week, Broadcom dropped over 1%, and Snowflake fell less than 1%. Overall, everyone is waiting for the earnings to land. If demand for servers and AI networks holds up, the hardware chain can continue to pass down; if software can also show AI converting into revenue, the market's judgment on AI commercialization will be revised upward.
The demand for computing power is solid, but whether it can spread across the entire industry chain depends on this week's data. I heard that the US and Iran clashed again last night.
What exactly happened last night? In the late night of August 30 Beijing time, the US military launched an airstrike on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran, marking the first direct military action in over a month since late July. Subsequently, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at US military bases in retaliation. Just a day before, Iran's deputy foreign minister had declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely closed," causing the situation to escalate rapidly.
The market reaction was immediate: Brent crude oil broke through $90, US stock futures fell, and BTC briefly plunged nearly 0.7%, dipping to around 77,000.
This correction is due to dual pressures. First, geopolitical risk triggered a flight to safety, causing funds to withdraw initially; second, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole are still resonating, emphasizing that inflation remains high. The market raised the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 60%, suppressing liquidity expectations.
However, BTC is now less sensitive to localized conflicts than before. After a symbolic dip, institutional and existing funds stepped in, so it’s not a panic sell-off. The key is whether the 77,000–77,500 level can hold, and whether oil prices and interest rate expectations continue to heat up. In terms of trading, don’t chase the news; wait for stabilization and volume confirmation. This is not investment advice. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Michael Saylor tweeted "We are back," with the B in back specially styled as the Bitcoin B. Does this mean they are going to buy more $BTC? He hasn't shared any Saylor Tracker charts in the past few weeks, but posted one again today. CoinTelegraph's headline directly interprets this statement as the Strategy returning to buy Bitcoin. Whether they actually bought this week and the purchase amount will be revealed soon.
Another noteworthy signal: in recent weeks, $STRC has returned to around 97, very close to 100. Could it be that the return of investor confidence in STRC allows $MSTR to buy more BTC by continuously issuing shares? If so, this machine for issuing shares to buy coins will be activated again, which is the key to watch going forward. Over the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support.
#DailyOrbit #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance is being tested
The US and Iran are at war again, oil prices have risen, and inflation won't come down. The probability of a rate hike in September has also increased.
The probability of a rate hike in September on Pol rose from 28% last week to 53%. $BTC $ETH both had sharp dips this morning.
Is the cost of war being paid by crypto again?#WalshInflationRisk Walsh didn’t commit to a September hike at Jackson Hole, but the market clearly heard a warning 🏛️
He said inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions are not restrictive and the labor market is still near full employment. He also pushed back on forward guidance, keeping short-term rates as the Fed’s main policy tool.
What stood out to me is how quickly expectations shifted without an explicit promise. September hike odds rose from around 35% to nearly 58%, while the two-year yield moved from 4.22% to 4.35%. Stocks, gold and BTC all fell afterward 📉
To me, this wasn’t a clear signal that a hike is coming. It was a reminder that the Fed doesn’t believe the inflation problem is finished—and doesn’t want markets assuming the path is already decided.
September now feels less about one speech and more about which incoming data point breaks the balance first.$BTC $ETH $TRUMP IBIT has been continuously absorbing for 9 days, with a total inflow of 3 billion dollars in August. BTC has bounced back to 79,000, and the group chat is flooded with "institutional bulls"—are your fingers already itching to place a market order? Hold on, this ETF flow is half real allocation and half basis arbitrage fake climax.
On August 28, BTC ETF suddenly had a net outflow of 202 million, breaking the 9-day increase streak immediately, and the price dropped from 81,400 back to 77,500; ETH ETF is still flowing in, but that's a different batch of money. Institutions use ETFs as a channel for portfolio adjustment, pulling and switching cars around the 80,000 mark. Those who truly believe in "mindless long bull" and chase the ups are just carrying the whales bottoming at 60,000 and the market makers subscribing.
The most toxic part of FOMO is mistaking "inflow" for "will keep rising." The day inflow stops is the day your order is stuck at the peak. Now, before BTC retests and stabilizes at 75,000–77,000 or truly breaks 81,000, just watch the ETF numbers without following. Focus on spot BTC/ETH mainline, reduce leverage, and small retail investors should stay away. #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% #Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块
The leader has something to say
Three security incidents in one week, the DeFi space is unstable.
Moonwell, 8.7 million, price manipulation. MAMO has shallow liquidity, attackers pushed the price up, borrowing cbBTC and USDC with overvalued tokens. $BTC
Avici, 500,000, contract vulnerability with card issuing partner, 1685 users affected.
Tectonic, 75 million, the largest incident. Attackers pushed TONIC price up about 100 times within 20 minutes, borrowing a large amount of assets with inflated $ETH $SOL collateral. Cronos directly stopped block production on the entire chain, blocking most of the funds.
The three incidents used different methods but point to the same problem. Low liquidity tokens are allowed as collateral, and oracle prices are easily manipulated. No contract vulnerabilities; the problem lies in the collateral and pricing mechanism.
On the market, BTC is around 77,000, continuing to hold short positions on ZEC with over 90 points floating profit. All long positions have been closed waiting for a pullback; no heavy bets before the direction is clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck.The most interesting thing about ETH right now is not how much it has risen, but that funds and price are in conflict.
My conclusion: moderately bullish in the medium term, but do not chase in the short term.
On August 28, the US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $102 million, with BlackRock ETHA contributing about $83.8 million in a single day. Institutional funds are indeed still buying.
#DailyOrbit $CORE
I said a long time ago that this coin could never rally again. Even if there are small fluctuations, it's not worth your investment. What if it doesn't rise and keeps falling? The probability of that is over 90%. Here are three aspects dissecting why CORE can't rise; whether you believe it is entirely up to you.
First, the highest price on OKEx was 6.9, on Huobi it was 24, and now the lowest price is around 0.015, a drop of nearly 500 times. A coin that has dropped 500 times is basically a half-thousand-bagger, just downward. So there are layers of trapped holders, especially in April this year when it suddenly broke the issuance price of 0.03 from a high around 0.07. In today's market, a coin breaking below its issuance price signals a zero-bound coin. Many friends ask why it adjusted back to 0.07; that's because the project team risked a crash to pull it up to that price, as they bought nearly 200 million tokens at that level. So only by pulling it up can the bag holders sell back to new buyers.
Second, narrative outweighs actual action. A token that exists based on narrative and exaggeration has no future. BTCFI, SatPay, BitGrid, and the like are all just visions. It's like buying lottery tickets every day; you take action but only insiders who know the backend data can win the jackpot. For years, everyone has said the project team is active, but it's all sugar-coated lies. Any institution that cooperated with them ended up losing heavily and withdrew!
Third, token unlocking has just passed halfway, yet the price is already so low. What will happen after the remaining half is fully released is very worrying! Coupled with the project team's neglectful behavior, relying entirely on retail investors and early consensus holders to pump the price is like a drop in the ocean. Asia Stablecoin Regulation: Banks Are Not Participants, They Are the Infrastructure Itself
Recently, I reviewed the stablecoin regulatory frameworks of Asia's three major financial centers (Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore) and found an interesting commonality: banks are not optional participants but the infrastructure itself.
Hong Kong is moving the fastest. The Stablecoin Ordinance will take effect in August 2025, and in April this year, the HKMA issued the first two licenses to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial. On August 12, the HKD stablecoin HKDAP launched its Beta and received 36 applications.
Japan follows a pure banking route. After the amendment to the Payment Services Act took effect on August 3, the FSA removed the ¥1 million single transaction limit for some licensed operators—this adjustment upgraded stablecoins from "consumer small payments" to "B2B settlement tools." Japan's three major megabanks aim to achieve ¥1 trillion inter-corporate transactions by 2028 through the Progmat platform.
Singapore's single-currency stablecoin framework fully took effect on July 1, covering reserve management, redemption rights, and governance standards.
My takeaway:
When the regulatory framework positions banks as core settlement nodes, "whether your withdrawal path is backed by bank-grade infrastructure" becomes a more critical card selection criterion than cashback rates.
I personally use PayAll, which aggregates over 100 U cards, each backed by different settlement partners.$BTC The Fed is tough-talking, but most likely won't take real action in September — when gold drops, it's like giving you free money
What's wrong with the US economy? It's bloated
On the surface, the data looks okay, but in reality, only a few AI giants are making money, ordinary people’s consumption is getting worse, and jobs are shrinking. Prices are still high, but have started to decline in the past month — this is a sign of economic weakening
Will there be a rate hike in September? Most likely not
Recently, Powell made tough statements, saying that if inflation doesn't drop to 2%, rate hikes will continue. But if you look closely, he only picks data favorable to himself, deliberately avoiding the fact that the economy is weakening. More importantly, the US midterm elections are coming soon; if they really hike rates now, economic data will look worse — who wants to take responsibility for that? So the chance of action in September is very small; the real focus is December
What about gold? When it drops, that's a buying opportunity
If it falls to $4500 per ounce, you can start building positions in batches. If the market panics and pushes it down to 4300-4400, that's an even better chance to add more. Below that, the downside is very limited. Once the Fed announces no rate hike in September, the previous tough talk will be "proven wrong," and gold is very likely to surge by several hundred dollars in one goIn the short term, I may hold a bearish view on Bitcoin:native, but from a macro perspective, I remain bullish.
Global M2 is expanding again, and this liquidity backdrop has historically been a major tailwind for Bitcoin:native.
So I am watching for a short-term correction while not losing sight of the bigger picture.
Until M2 starts to decline, my macro argument remains bullish for me.At the current stage, the pattern remains that Bitcoin is eating the meat while altcoins are drinking the soup. Many people can't wait for the altcoin season and go all in on altcoins early, but end up not outperforming BTC.
Breaking down several key targets on the market:
$SOL: The leading public chain and the barometer of this altcoin round. As long as SOL remains strong, sector coins have localized opportunities; once SOL weakens, the altcoin sector will collectively face pressure.
$ENA: RWA-stablecoin narrative, with rapidly rising open interest (OI). This is an event-driven market, highly dependent on the continuous fermentation of the narrative. Without the support of a broad altcoin season environment, it is difficult to sustain a long-term trend.
$ZEC: Privacy narrative hotspot, with sharp gains and surging OI, but the overall sector size is small. It is a thematic speculation that tends to produce big moves only in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 As soon as Jackson Hole spoke, Waller pushed the probability of a September rate hike from 35% directly to 60%
Waller's speech at Jackson Hole on August 27 was his most complete hawkish stance this year: the 2% inflation target remains unwavering, current financial conditions cannot be said to be restrictive, and recent PCE and CPI data are insufficient to prove meaningful improvement in core inflation. The market reaction was very direct, with the two-year US Treasury yield jumping 12 basis points in a single day to 4.35%, and federal funds futures showing the probability of a September rate hike rising from about 35% before the speech to over 50%, now approaching 60%.
This week is the critical window to verify whether this hawkish stance can be implemented: Monday's PMI, Wednesday's ADP, Thursday's Beige Book, early Friday morning Cleveland Fed President Mester's speech, and the highlight in the evening is the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. Last month's nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, triggering a round of severe asset volatility; this time the data carries even more weight.
Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have not disappeared: Kashkari and Cook tend to favor starting gradual rate hikes as soon as possible, possibly as early as September; Williams emphasizes that action is only needed if inflation does not fall as expected, showing a more cautious attitude.
Waller's real test has shifted from "whether the market understood his speech" to "whether the data supports turning his diagnosis into action".
Do you think this nonfarm payrolls report will be strong enough to support a direct rate hike in September?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $ETH $SOL $OTC just showed a pumpfun launcher where the person who launches takes 0%.
80% of creator fees buy aapl, anthropic, neuralink for whoever holds that coin. 15% hits the desks. the screenshot is still localhost:3000.
1904 desks have been paid $127k in three days. token recaptured $1.1m after they sold the last ship from $1.2m down to $849k.
i sat that bounce and they sold it. i am not in this. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults This round of U.S. military raids on Iranian soil cannot be simply defined as a single localized skirmish. This is the first time since late July that the U.S. military has openly and proactively struck military targets inside Iran. It is also a key signal of the U.S.-Iran rivalry, moving from peripheral proxy conflict to direct fire. On the night of August 30 local time, a sudden explosion occurred on Larak Island in Iran's Hormizgan province. In the early hours of August 31 Beijing time, the full incident was officially announced by both the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. Central Command directly claimed the military operation for this military operation. The strike targets were precisely targeted: two rocket launchers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The U.S. operational logic was very clear. Last week, the U.S. military completed a full mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces were detected preparing to deploy missile launchers, intending to block key shipping routes again. The U.S. military stated it was tough and unyielding. They absolutely refused to allow Iran to redeploy or blockade the strait's shipping lanes. Troops will continue to be stationed for monitoring to ensure commercial navigation freedom along the core waterways of the Middle East. The characteristics of this strike are extremely distinctive. Precise, fast, limited, and targeted elimination. Only weapons and equipment are destroyed, without large-scale ground advances. The U.S. military's goal is not full-scale war, but strategic deterrence + testing the red lines. Forcing Iran to shrink the Strait of Hormuz as a means of confrontation. But the risk of the situation spiraling out of control is entirely in Iran's hands. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has officially issued a statement. This airstrike is defined as blatant territorial aggression. The attack has caused multiple civilian and armed casualties. Iran's attitude shows no room for relaxation. Clear equality is being issuedSeptember rate hike expectations suddenly reversed! Short-term pressure in the crypto space has completely changed
The biggest recent market variable is the sudden turnaround in September rate hike expectations.
A week ago, the probability of a September rate hike was only 39.9%, now it has surged directly to 57%.
The turning point was the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole: the Federal Reserve firmly holds to the 2% inflation target and will not relent. Meanwhile, current PCE data remains high, with a large gap from the target, inflation has not been suppressed at all.
More importantly, the US economy’s resilience exceeds expectations: corporate profits are strengthening, unemployment rate is stable, fully able to withstand further rate hikes.
The market sentiment switched too quickly; last week it was still speculating on rate cuts, this week it directly switched to speculating on rate hikes.
For $BTC and other risk assets, rising interest rates mean passive drainage, so short-term pressure is very normal.
But there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
Looking back at history, every time rate hike expectations were pushed to the extreme and the market panicked collectively, it was often a golden window where sentiment bottomed out. Negative factors are exhausted in advance, and the market naturally reverses.
Key date to remember: September 16 is the final implementation day.
For the remaining half month, avoid following the crowd and making noise, focus on core data, and patiently wait for the direction to be finalized.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 Tech stocks are squeezing out profits, while hard assets are getting rich: the "largest cognitive gap in history" behind copper, aluminum, and uranium. When the ratio of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index to the S&P 500 hits an absolute low not seen in half a century, top Wall Street investment banks almost all reverse course. This is by no means a simple technical bottom-fishing but a "physical total liquidation" long accumulated between the virtual and real economies in the capital market.
Copper prices breaking through $14,000 per ton and uranium prices returning above $90 are not temporary supply-demand mismatches but the result of a decade-long severe underinvestment in industry capital expenditure combined with global supply chain fragmentation.
The demand for the power grid, copper, and nuclear power (uranium) driven by electrification and AI data centers is physically rigid, and power infrastructure upgrades are becoming the biggest "hard resistance" in global technological iteration.
Export controls and geopolitical games over key minerals, coupled with new mine development cycles of 7–10 years due to long-term underinvestment, leave almost no buffer on the supply side.
Although top institutions have begun warning that "buffer reserves are depleted," the vast majority of public funds and retail traders are still crowding into tech stocks to watch.
However, the total market value of commodities and mining stocks is extremely narrow compared to the tens of trillions of dollars in U.S. tech giants. Once the marginal return on AI capital expenditure begins to be questioned, even if only 2%–3% of the overflow funds from U.S. stocks shift to hard asset allocation, it will trigger a physical-level capital squeeze and surge in the relatively small commodity market. $BTC $UNI $ETH