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After Jackson Hole's hawkish tone, the market has raised the probability of a September rate hike to over 50%. The real test is not in the speech, but in the employment data rolling out this week.
Wash's premise is clear: with an unemployment rate of 4.1% and the labor market roughly aligned with full employment, the policy focus should be on prices rather than further insurance on the employment side.
The problem is that July's nonfarm payrolls already showed a net decrease. If August only rebounds to about 50,000, wages continue to cool, and job vacancies and initial claims weaken simultaneously, his narrative of "stable employment and not-tight financial conditions" will falter.
Conversely, if new hires recover, hourly wages remain sticky, and the unemployment rate stays pinned at 4.1%, the hawkish framework will hold, and the September meeting discussion will shift from "whether to move" to "how much to move."
Wash deliberately provides limited forward guidance, effectively handing pricing power back to the data. ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, and nonfarm payrolls will be released within days; single-month noise is large, but the combined direction is hard to ignore.
If employment clearly cools, rate hike trades should reduce positions; if employment is just "slow growth but not collapsing," and inflation remains above 3%, his phrase "there is still work to do" will be interpreted by the market as rates staying higher for longer.
This week, watch three things: whether new hires are just slow growth constrained by population, whether the unemployment rate turns, and whether wages pick up again. Numbers must align with the speech for the stance to pass muster. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 SOL feels like a 24-hour convenience store in the crypto world.
The decor isn’t the most refined, the shelves can be quite messy at times, and it’s stocked with both serious products and a bunch of new gadgets that are hard to understand. But it’s fast enough and convenient enough, so no matter what time you go in, you’ll always see people trading.
Many people study public chains, comparing TPS, technical routes, and valuation models.
Right now, I care more about a very simple thing: how often people actually use it.
If every operation on a chain requires repeatedly calculating fees and waiting a long time for confirmation, no matter how good the story is, it’s hard for people to form a habit. SOL’s advantage lies here: low operating costs and quick feedback make it easy for people to go from "just trying it out" to "playing again."
This is both its most attractive feature and its biggest risk.
Once the threshold is lowered, good projects can gain users more easily, but junk projects can also harvest faster. Every smooth confirmation in your wallet might make people mistakenly think making money is just as easy.
So I won’t assume there are opportunities everywhere just because the SOL ecosystem is lively.
But I also can’t ignore one fact: when more and more people are willing to actually open their wallets, click confirm, and complete transactions, this chain is no longer just a PPT.
As for how much SOL will ultimately be worth, I don’t have an answer for now.
I only know that in blockchain, the ability to keep people using it continuously is itself a very hard-to-replicate capability. $SOL #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 The key to trading this week is not individual stocks; the focus is on whether oil prices can break below 85 and when the probability of a September rate hike will drop below 50%.
Good earnings from Nvidia ≠ saving the world. Currently, there is a high oil price of $90 externally, and internally, Warsh is making tough statements that the Fed does not rule out a rate hike, followed by the potentially volatile non-farm payrolls. Do you dare to go against the big trend?
Besides watching how the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasury yields jump around, you also need to watch out for a stab in the back from the yen. Once the yen really starts pricing in rate hikes, all the arbitrage funds that borrowed cheap yen to buy assets everywhere will have to close positions overnight and flee, instantly draining market liquidity.
As long as oil prices stubbornly hold above $90, the market can go crazy at any time, but risk volatility will also be higher.
This week, don’t just get excited staring at the major indexes; wait until oil prices fall back below 85 and the rate hike alarm is lifted before acting. Don’t rush in to get slaughtered while the gods are fighting.
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
NVIDIA has proven with a hundred billion in revenue that computing power is not a bubble. The next question for Broadcom and Dell, who are taking over the baton, is—how far can the money flow along the AI hardware chain? Broadcom is watching whether the profit margin of custom chips can hold up, while Dell is looking to see if AI servers can maintain revenue growth. Two earnings reports, one testing "depth," the other testing "breadth."
After market close on Wednesday, Broadcom's Q3 revenue is expected to be 29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year. AI semiconductors are the core variable—Q2 already reached 10.8 billion, Q3 guidance is 16 billion, full year 56 billion, with a target exceeding 100 billion next year. Broadcom holds about 70% of the global custom AI chip market, used by Google, Meta, and OpenAI. The market is really focused on gross margin; custom chip profit margins are lower than standard products, and whether they can maintain around 74% is key.
After market close on Thursday, Dell's Q2 revenue hit a record 29.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 beating expectations. ISG server and networking revenue was 12.9 billion, soaring 69% year-over-year, mainly driven by AI servers. AI solution shipments exceeded 10 billion in the first half, and the full-year AI server shipment guidance was raised from 15 billion to 20 billion. However, PC segment CSG revenue only increased slightly by 1%, and consumer business fell 7%. Full-year revenue guidance is 105 to 109 billion.$BTC $ETH The most subtle thing in the market right now is not the quality of the non-farm payroll data itself, but how much the market has already "priced in" this data. July's non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000; including revisions for May and June, the total downward adjustment is 103,000, indicating the job market could collapse suddenly. The probability of a rate hike once plunged to 44%, but after oil prices rebounded, the rate hike probability returned to 50%. The Fed's internal vote was 9 to 3, showing such a large division that it became public. The market is already unsettled by this back-and-forth tug-of-war. Currently, the expectation is that August non-farm payrolls will rebound to a range of 58,000 to 80,000. This expectation is already significant, moving from negative to nearly 60,000; the market is betting on a "violent rebound." But whether this rebound is enough to lower the rate hike probability is uncertain. Wash just delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, saying there is still work to do on inflation. As long as employment doesn't collapse, he has reason to suppress inflation. So there are three scenarios: If non-farm payrolls fall significantly below expectations, for example below 30,000, the market will reprice the rate hike probability, and Bitcoin might rebound briefly. But don't chase the highs; the CPI for September 11 is still pending. If non-farm payrolls fall within the expected range of 50,000 to 80,000, this is the most conflicted situation—the expectation is met, but not enough to reverse the rate hike logic, and Bitcoin might face pressure from the good news already priced in. If non-farm payrolls exceed 100,000, the rate hike probability will jump, and Bitcoin will continue to be under pressure; 76,000 might not hold. At this point in the market, elasticity is very compressed, with everyone betting in the same direction; even a slight deviation in expectations could be amplified. The market🔥 Recently, many friends have privately asked me if we can still see Bitcoin starting with 6 digits? My answer is: it's difficult, but not impossible; it requires a black swan level catalyst. If there is really a rate hike in September, BTC retracing to 73,500-75K is highly probable. But to get back to the 60K range, three negative factors need to trigger simultaneously: a systemic correction in the US stock market + accelerated selling by MicroStrategy/miners + large-scale continuous outflows Market Brief: The Dual Game of SNDK's Fundamentals and Valuation
Market Overview
SNDK's fundamental data is impressive, with AI workloads driving demand for enterprise SSDs and NAND. Data center revenue has surged significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 437%. Institutions have listed it as the preferred stock in the storage sector. Inclusion in the MSCI index has brought passive capital inflows, which is a liquidity event rather than a fundamental change. Future sustainability depends on storage product demand and chip pricing.
At the same time, risks are also prominent: technically, it is in a downward channel, and valuation pressure above 1200 is significant.
Strategy: Do not chase the short-term sentiment driven by the index. Consider participating mid-term only after price retracement stabilizes and volume increases. Market funds are also watching whether Micron and Hynix can continue the rally. BTC is currently oscillating near the high level of 79,000.
Market Logic
The real demand from AI servers for large-capacity SSDs and cache hardware is the underlying logic for SNDK's rise. MSCI inclusion is only an incremental catalyst that can amplify short-term moves but cannot drive long-term trends.
Strong fundamentals do not mean prices will keep rising. Under high valuation, once demand expectations loosen, the correction space can also be large.
After event-driven rallies, the market ultimately returns to the storage industry cycle and product pricing for validation.
Trading Insights
Distinguish between fundamental benefits and event-driven benefits; do not mistake liquidity support for a new trend start.
Do not chase sentiment at high levels; rather, wait for a retracement and stabilization to give confirmation signals before making mid-term arrangements.Market Brief: Interpretation of the SNDK MSCI Index Adjustment Event
Market Overview
Due to an increase in market capitalization, SNDK has been upgraded from the MSCI Small Cap Index to be included in the MSCI World Mid and Large Cap Index. The adjustment officially took effect at the close on August 31 and is one of the largest new constituents in this index adjustment.
The index adjustment will trigger passive fund rebalancing: existing small-cap index funds will passively sell SNDK; MSCI World broad index funds will passively buy it. Meanwhile, arbitrage funds will position themselves in advance and close positions in the opposite direction at the effective date. A large volume of orders concentrated during the closing auction phase can easily cause sharp short-term spikes or drops.
Market Logic
The index upgrade itself is a positive event, but it does not necessarily mean the price will rise.
If incremental buying has already been priced in by the market, it is easy to see a pattern of "pre-emptive rally followed by a sell-off upon realization," meaning the positive news is already reflected in the price. The event will only amplify short-term volatility and will not change the medium- to long-term fundamental trends.
The storage sector already has significant valuation divergence, and combined with the concentrated trading caused by index rebalancing, this will further amplify intraday fluctuations, causing both bulls and bears to endure substantial profit and loss swings.
Trading Insights
This is an event-driven market; be especially cautious of "buying expectations and selling facts."
Do not simply go long based on the news of index inclusion; observe the actual trading volume and genuine market support at the time of realization.
Volatility during the event window will be sharply amplified; leverage positions must be reduced to avoid the risk of spikes during the auction phase. Market Brief: Tragic Review of Retail Short Sellers on SNDK
Market Overview
A retail investor shorted SNDK at $822 on May 9, and even added to the position along the way, only to face continuous short squeezes, resulting in a trapped position lasting five months.
Believing online opinions, some claimed 2380 was the top, while others expected a drop to 500-800, clinging to the fantasy of breaking even and profiting. The funds came from loans, and as the price kept rising, approaching the liquidation line, there was no extra capital to add to the position, leaving the investor in a dilemma, with their mindset severely drained by the market.
Market Logic
The most painful aspect of a short squeeze in a speculative stock is fighting the trend with common sense. Subjectively labeling it a bubble or thinking the valuation is absurd does not immediately reverse the price.
Online opinions are mixed and chaotic; taking others' judgments as trading basis without your own stop-loss boundaries is risky.
Trading with borrowed funds distorts mindset completely; losses are no longer just account numbers but real debt pressure, making rational risk control execution difficult.
In a trending market, "feeling it has risen too much" is not a reason to short; the price can continue to be squeezed higher, and shorts will keep getting squeezed.
Trading Lessons
Do not trade with borrowed funds; debt amplifies trading risks exponentially. Nonfarm Payroll Countdown: 5 Quick Takes to Help You Clear Your Mind
Friday night at 8:30 PM, a report.
It could send your long positions to heaven or kick them straight to hell.
Don’t panic, 5 quick takes, 60 seconds to understand the whole picture.
Quick Take 1: Rate hike probability 57%-60% — the market has heavily priced it in
After the Jackson Hole speech by Waller, the September rate hike probability jumped from 35% to 58%, and now CME FedWatch shows it in the 54%-60% range. The market has already priced in the hawkish expectations in advance.
If nonfarm is weaker than 50,000, this probability will plunge. If stronger than 80,000, the rate hike is basically locked in.
Expectation gaps are the source of volatility.
Quick Take 2: BTC current price $79,000, institutions are buying, price hasn’t surged — what does this mean?
In August, Bitcoin spot ETF monthly net inflows exceeded $3 billion, the strongest single month since 2026. Last week’s single-week net inflow was about $920 million.
Institutions are scooping up, but the price hasn’t taken off.
What does this indicate? It means sellers are just as fierce. Some are buying, some are selling. The $79,000 level is the real battleground between bulls and bears. $77,000-$81,000 is the recent core volatility range.
Quick Take 3: Huge expectation divergence — the greater the volatility, the sharper the spikes
Reuters survey market expectation +58,000, Deutsche Bank forecast +65,000, Wells Fargo forecast +80,000, some institutions even predict negative growth. JPMorgan says 30,000 to 70,000 is the friendliest range for the market.
The bigger the expectation gap, the more intense the volatility.
Friday night, be ready for spikes. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Quick Take 4: Nonfarm is just the first hurdle, inflation is the final judge
Don’t forget the schedule: September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI. Nonfarm decides whether the employment-side evidence is enough to stop rate hikes, but inflation data still holds the final pricing power.
Don’t put all your positions on Friday night.
Winning nonfarm is just the first round. CPI is the final round.
Quick Take 5: “Low hiring, low firing” — focus on expectation gaps, not the numbers themselves
July nonfarm -23,000, May and June combined revised down by 103,000. Last week, the Labor Statistics Bureau released the annual benchmark adjustment, revising nonfarm employment down by 862,000.
The true picture of the current job market in six words: low hiring, low firing.
In this pattern, marginal changes in nonfarm data matter more than absolute values. Don’t focus on “how many thousands were added” — focus on expectation gaps.
Data beats expectations → rate hike probability rises → risk assets fall.
Data misses expectations → rate hike probability falls → risk assets rise.
The logic is that simple. Execution? Depends on how fast your hands are.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The highest-level way to cover up an avalanche is not to repair the dam, but to throw a bloody peach-colored gossip to the public.
Have you ever thought about the deeper aspects of the Jing Tian incident? Why did Sun Ge release this little essay at this point in time? The Jing Tian incident broke out on August 27.
On July 23, the EU followed up with the 21st round of sanctions against Russia, including HTX on the trading ban list, effective August 23.
On the same day, Binance announced it would stop financial transactions with HTX and 10 other platforms.
In just three months, a major exchange with an annual trading volume of 3.3 trillion USD and over 55 million registered users was successively blacklisted by two major jurisdictions.
The moment the long article was published, the trending search list was completely wiped out, and the entire internet fell into a frenzy. The truth didn’t matter; no one cared about a European photo of an exchange because humans can never resist top celebrities, billions in cash, and the bloody scent of high society.
This business makes money, but every penny accumulates regulatory risk.
The UK is the same. HTX was already on the warning list of the UK Financial Conduct Authority in 2023, repeatedly ignoring warnings, continuing to run ads and attract users. In October 2025, the FCA filed its first-ever lawsuit against a crypto company, targeting HTX. @OKX星球 Before every nonfarm payroll report, someone always asks me the same question: "Bullish or bearish?"
My honest answer is just three words—I don't know.
And I think right now, no one can say for sure.
Bitcoin just went through a violent rebound—up over 20% in August, surging from above $60,000 to over $79,000.
But if you think the trend is clear now, you're mistaken.
Bitcoin opened Tuesday at $77,500, then experienced sharp volatility, briefly dipping below the 50-week moving average of $77,269 before pulling back. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.76%, continuing to pressure risk assets.
Prices are rising, but the foundation is shaky.
Why do I say "no one can say for sure"?
Because the market is stuck in a deadlock—all signals are conflicting.
Signal A: Waller turned hawkish.
After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 60%. Waller clearly stated the 2% inflation target remains unchanged.
Signal B: But the September hike probability is only about 60%.
57%, 58%, 60%—numbers vary slightly across institutions. But looking further, there's still over 40% chance of no hike. The market itself hasn't reached consensus.
Signal C: Employment is cooling down.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. The three-month average job growth is only about 20,000.
Signal D: But unemployment rate is falling.
July unemployment dropped to 4.1%, a 13-month low. But this improvement is due to labor force participation falling to 61.4%—not more jobs, but fewer people looking for work.
Signal E: Inflation is improving but still high.
PCE at 3.7%, core PCE at 3.3%, above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Wage growth is slowing, but price pressures remain.
Signal F: Geopolitics could reignite inflation at any time.
US-Iran conflict shut down one-fifth of global oil supply. The trade war with Canada just restarted. The AI boom is pushing chip prices higher.
Employment is weak, but not weak enough. Inflation is high, but not too high. Rate hike odds are high, but uncertain.
Sixty percent versus forty percent. This is not direction, this is a coin toss.
The August nonfarm payrolls released Friday are expected to show job gains between 50,000 and 80,000. July was -23,000.
If the data falls within 50,000 to 80,000—that's neither strong nor a collapse. Insufficient evidence to hike, insufficient reason not to hike.
So how will the market move? I don't know.
And don't forget—after nonfarm payrolls, there's CPI. August CPI will be released on September 10 and 11. The Fed meets on September 15-16.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls won't answer "Will there be a hike in September?" but rather "Is the labor market weak enough to stop a hike?" The final answer depends on CPI.
So what about those shouting "all in" and "liquidate" in chat groups?
Two types of people.
One truly doesn't understand. They simplify a complex system into binary logic: "good data = price down, bad data = price up." But reality never works that way.
The other pretends to understand. They know they don't know, but "calling trades" gains followers, leads trades, and earns traffic. Giving a definite answer during market anxiety—even if wrong—is more shareable than "I don't know."
But "shareable" and "valuable" are different.
I don't think shouting "all in" at this point is responsible.
Nor do I think shouting "liquidate and run" is rational.
The complexity of this market exceeds anyone's predictive ability.
Admitting this is not shameful. In this industry, admitting "I don't know" takes more courage than pretending "I know it all."
So what to do? Stop trading?
Not stop trading. Change the way you trade—from "betting on direction" to "managing risk."
My response framework is simple, just three points:
First, data first, no preset direction.
Betting heavily before data comes out is gambling, not trading. Wait for data to land, see the market's real reaction, then act. Being slow won't kill you; rushing might lose everything.
Second, position discipline, leverage no more than 3x.
Whether you're bullish or bearish, leverage over 3x is handing your fate to luck. On nonfarm night, volatility can burst your position in a heartbeat.
Third, stagger your trades, don't bet all at once before nonfarm.
No one knows how data will turn out, nor how the market will interpret it. Enter in three batches; if wrong, you can correct. Betting all at once leaves no chance to recover.
How long you survive in this market doesn't depend on how many times you are right.
It depends on whether you can keep playing after being wrong.
On nonfarm night, I don't bet on direction.
I only bet on one thing—those who manage risk live longer.
My value is not to give you a price prediction.
My value is to help you build your own decision framework amid uncertainty.
People shouting bullish today and bearish tomorrow are everywhere. But when everyone is anxious and wants a "definite answer," those who dare to say "I don't know, but here is my response plan"—that content is worth your time.
If you must trade, remember three things:
Set stop-loss. Set stop-loss. Set stop-loss.
Important things said three times. The volatility on nonfarm night can't be weathered by faith alone.
Don't overleverage. Save some bullets for Monday—after the market digests data and calms down, the direction then is more reliable.
Don't chase highs or sell lows. The volatility in the five minutes before data release is likely noise. Let the dust settle.
The market is complex, too complex for anyone to predict accurately.
But one thing is simple—manage your position and survive to see tomorrow.
On nonfarm night, I don't call trades, don't go all in, don't liquidate.
I only do one thing: control what I can, accept what I can't.
And "whether you can predict correctly" just happens to be the latter.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Pre market thoughts - 1 Sep 26 22 years ago - the song "Wake me up when September ends" was released. Summer has come and passed. For many market participants looking at seasonality, September has traditionally been a difficult month. I have heard many calls to derisk. Personally i am staying risk on for a few reasons - 1. July was supposed to be a fantastic month, instead we had the worst momentum crash. I suppose seasonality is not working this year. 2. Going into the mid terms, I stand by my #LaborMarketTestsWalsh This week’s labor data may tell us whether Walsh’s inflation-first stance has enough room to hold 👀
JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and August payrolls are all coming, after July payrolls fell by 23K and May–June figures were revised down by another 103K. That already points to a softer hiring picture.
At Jackson Hole, Walsh emphasized that inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions aren’t restrictive and price stability should stay the priority. Markets reacted quickly, with September hike odds briefly moving from around 35% to nearly 60% 📊
What I find interesting is the tension between those two stories. The Fed may want to keep pressure on inflation, but continued labor weakness would make additional tightening harder to explain.
One weak report probably won’t settle the debate. But if several labor indicators soften together, the question may shift from whether policy is restrictive enough to whether it is starting to become too restrictive.Huobi's poisoning-style transfers were suspended on the evening of August 28th
Not sure if it was because the "little essay" caused too much negative impact, or if CZ spoke out to discourage it, or if it was due to communication protests from Coinbase and Kraken exchanges.
Anyway, this disgusting little move that dragged innocent users down without any explanation finally stopped
The wallet used for the transfers seems to be the same address that WLFI identified as the one Sun Ge used to dump WLFI
It's kind of a dark humor in itself #Bitcoin rose 23% in August, outperforming gold and the stock market #Bitcoin holds steady above $78,000 #US crypto-related stock index up 8.81% in August
BTC rose 23% in August, crushing gold and the stock market. To put it plainly and explain the logic, let's also talk about sustainability.
This rally in August is essentially a resonance of macro expectations, liquidity, and derivatives.
The most direct trigger was the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, which the market interpreted as improved liquidity, benefiting non-sovereign assets collectively.
Additionally, the SEC released regulatory positive signals, funds flowed back into the AI sector earlier, and spot buying started entering the market. Due to the previous consolidation period where shorts were overly crowded, once the price broke through a key level, it directly triggered the largest short squeeze in history, with passive buying further amplifying the gains.
ETFs had net inflows close to 3 billion over 9 consecutive days, providing strong support, but starting August 28, there was a 200 million outflow, and short-term momentum began to weaken. Nonfarm payrolls are the first act of the September rate hike script; CPI is the grand finale
You stare at the candlestick chart, your heartbeat syncing with the candles.
Bitcoin hovers around $78,000, unable to break up or down.
Everyone is waiting for Friday—the August nonfarm payrolls.
But I want to tell you a fact most people overlook:
Nonfarm payrolls are not the end. They are just the beginning.
1/ Let's first look at the current situation.
CME FedWatch shows the market pricing a 65.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
Just a week ago, this number was only about 35%.
What happened? Waller hawked at Jackson Hole.
He said inflation has not shown "meaningful improvement," the 2% target is "firm and unwavering," and if core inflation does not clearly and quickly decline—"there's more work to do."
In one sentence, he nearly doubled the rate hike probability.
2/ How did Bitcoin react?
Before Waller's speech, BTC had just surged above $81,000.
After the speech, it turned sharply down from $81,000, dropping about 5.7% within a week.
Now it trades sideways between $77,100 and $78,400.
Neither up nor down. No rise, no fall.
The market is waiting. Waiting for a definitive direction.
3/ But most people got one thing wrong.
They think Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the answer.
Wrong.
Waller himself has already sealed the narrative—from now until the September 16 FOMC meeting, every employment and inflation report either reinforces or weakens his stance.
Nonfarm payrolls are just the first piece of the puzzle.
4/ Here's a complete timeline:
September 4 (Friday) — August nonfarm payroll report.
Economists expect an increase of 55,000 to 80,000 jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
July data showed a decrease of 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000.
The first piece of evidence on the employment side.
September 10 (Wednesday) — August PPI (Producer Price Index).
Are business costs rising or falling? This is the "upstream signal" of inflation.
September 11 (Thursday) — August CPI (Consumer Price Index).
This is the real decisive factor.
If core CPI month-over-month rises above 0.3%, rate hike expectations will soar.
If it drops to around 0.1%, the FOMC has reason to hold steady.
September 16 (Wednesday) — FOMC meeting.
The final verdict.
5/ Understand now?
Nonfarm payrolls are just the first act. CPI is the grand finale.
There is a whole week in between.
If you bet right on Friday, next week's CPI could overturn everything.
If you panic-sell on Friday, next week's CPI might make you regret it deeply.
6/ Three scenarios, consider carefully:
Scenario 1: Weak nonfarm + weak CPI
Employment collapses, inflation falls → rate hike probability plummets → BTC violently rebounds.
Scenario 2: Weak nonfarm + stubborn CPI
Employment weak, but prices stubbornly high → Waller's dilemma: hiking kills jobs, not hiking lets inflation continue → high volatility, unclear direction.
Scenario 3: Strong nonfarm + stubborn CPI
Employment resilient, inflation won't fall → rate hike probability shoots above 80% → BTC may directly retest $70,000.
The deadliest is scenario two. Also the most probable.
7/ The harsh truth is here.
July nonfarm already decreased by 23,000. May and June were revised down by 103,000 total.
The real employment market situation is much worse than surface data.
But what did Waller say at Jackson Hole? He said the labor market is "healthy," and the slowdown in job growth is a "demographic issue, not a recession."
He labeled the poor nonfarm data as "structural" rather than "cyclical."
What does this mean?
It means even if Friday's nonfarm looks bad, he may not ease up.
What he needs is CPI to fall. Not employment to rise.
8/ Here's a more painful truth.
Your current position is not really betting on nonfarm payrolls.
You're betting on two things:
First, whether CPI will fall.
Second, whether Waller is willing to admit he was wrong.
A person who just hawked at Jackson Hole, pushing rate hike probability from 35% to 65%—do you think he will backtrack in two weeks?
"Words don't equal actions."
But "words" themselves are a form of action.
9/ So what to do?
Don't put all your chips on nonfarm night.
Nonfarm is a smoke screen. CPI is the nuclear bomb.
There's a whole week in between. You have enough time to observe, adjust, and reposition.
Don't FOMO, don't panic, don't shoot all your bullets in the first act.
10/ Conclusion
Bitcoin is trading sideways near $78,000.
The market is waiting.
Waiting for nonfarm, PPI, CPI, and Waller's final judgment.
Nonfarm payrolls are the first act of the September rate hike script; CPI is the grand finale.
Don't put all your chips on the first act.
The real show is just beginning.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 A few points on interest rate hikes and political macro factors:
The market has over 50% expectation of a rate hike; September may see no hike, or it might be delayed until after the midterm elections or only one hike by the end of the year. It is highly likely there will be no consecutive hikes this year.
If the Trump administration implements semiconductor tariffs in the future, it will exert sustained downward pressure on the semiconductor sector.
The political struggle between the two parties is intense. It is expected that the Democrats may gain more seats in both the House and Senate in the midterm elections, thereby limiting the Trump administration's executive power; before the midterms, the market is prone to sharp declines and volatility to shake public sentiment. The A-shares basically follow the US stock market, so September and October will likely be volatile. There may be a noticeable pullback before the midterms, which is normal, especially around September 18, when there are many short positions in overseas markets, potentially causing significant volatility. This does not necessarily mean one should short. On the contrary, I personally believe the pullbacks in September and October are opportunities to get back in, leading up to the last rally through the midterms and even until the end of the year.
The direction can be gauged by the high targets of the US stock market; the S&P is looking above 8000, so cryptocurrencies, stocks, etc., can use this pullback to prepare for the midterm rally.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 On the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, three sets of data will decide life or death: What does a "just right" employment report look like?
You’re holding Bitcoin, watching it hover around $78,000.
Is the rise and fall all guesswork? Is the news all speculation?
Stop guessing. At 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, a report will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates on September 16.
This is not a drill. This is the starting gun for September’s market.
1/ Let’s first talk about the current situation.
Bitcoin surged from $68,000 in August to above $81,000, nearly a 20% increase. But after Waller’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, BTC fell back and is now consolidating around $78,000.
Neither up nor down. That’s the most frustrating.
CME FedWatch shows the market’s probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has jumped from under 40% before Waller’s speech to 65.4%. A December hike is fully priced in.
In other words: the market is prepared for a September rate hike.
But this preparation could be completely overturned by Friday night’s report.
2/ Remember three numbers.
At 8:30 PM on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the August nonfarm payroll report.
Mainstream market expectations:
New jobs: 55,000–58,000
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
Average hourly earnings: month-over-month 0.3%–0.4%
Predictions vary: Deutsche Bank forecasts 65,000; Wells Fargo forecasts 80,000. Economists generally expect about 55,000.
July’s data was -23,000. May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000.
This means the job market is cooling. The question is—cooling enough to stop the Fed from hiking?
3/ Three sets of numbers, three destinies.
When Friday’s data comes out, there are basically three scenarios, each corresponding to a completely different BTC trajectory.
🔴 Scenario 1: Data < 30,000 (extremely weak)
If August nonfarm new jobs are under 30,000—or even negative again—that means the job market is worse than expected.
The probability of a rate hike will plummet. The dollar will dive, and U.S. Treasury yields will collapse.
BTC? A violent rebound. $85,000 might just be the starting point.
The market will immediately price in “the Fed won’t dare hike”—why hike when the economy is like this?
🟡 Scenario 2: Data 30,000–70,000 ("just right" range)
This is the most market-friendly script.
Weak employment means the economy is cooling, giving the Fed reason to hold steady.
But no collapse means no recession, no panic needed.
JPMorgan calls this the “Goldilocks zone”—employment weak but not collapsing, a slight drop in hike probability, and a mild rebound in risk assets.
Under this scenario, BTC will likely trend upward with volatility but won’t surge violently. The market will wait for the CPI data on September 10–11 for a final judgment.
🟢 Scenario 3: Data > 80,000 (stronger than expected)
If August nonfarm exceeds 80,000—or even hits over 100,000—a rate hike is basically locked in.
Waller already said at Jackson Hole: inflation must return to 2% "clearly and quickly enough." With such strong employment, why wouldn’t he hike?
U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, putting short-term pressure on BTC.
Bitfinex analysts warn: if nonfarm exceeds expectations, BTC may face further selling pressure. Some traders predict BTC could drop to the $73,000–$75,000 range.
4/ But here’s a detail most people overlook—
The truly important factor may not be the new jobs number itself.
Capital Street FX analysis is clear: what’s most worth watching on Friday isn’t just the new nonfarm jobs. Labor force participation rate, wage growth, and historical data revisions better reflect the underlying changes in the job market.
July’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, which sounds good. But that’s because the labor participation rate fell to 61.4%—some people simply stopped looking for work.
If August’s labor participation rate rises back to 61.5%, the unemployment rate might look unchanged, but the underlying logic is completely different.
Don’t just look at the headline number. The devil is in the details.
5/ Here’s a harsher fact—
Nonfarm might not give the final answer at all.
Because on September 10 and 11, August’s PPI and CPI will be released.
Nonfarm decides whether the "employment side evidence is enough to stop a rate hike." Inflation data holds the last piece of pricing power.
In other words: weak nonfarm on Friday doesn’t guarantee no hike in September—you still have to watch CPI.
Strong nonfarm on Friday means a September hike is almost certain.
Nonfarm is the threshold; CPI is the final judge.
6/ So what should you do now?
Don’t bet on direction. Those who bet on direction end up losing to volatility.
Bitfinex data shows nearly $1 billion net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week. Institutions are still adding positions amid macro uncertainty.
What does this mean? Smart money doesn’t bet one-sidedly—they "build positions in batches."
You should do the same:
Before the data, don’t go all in or all out.
Set stop losses, don’t be greedy.
The 30 minutes after the data release is the most chaotic period—don’t make decisions then.
7/ Finally, some honest words.
One employment report will adjust the entire September.
A 65.4% hike probability means the market is leaning hawkish.
But if Friday’s data is below 30,000, that probability could be halved overnight.
If above 80,000, it could surge above 80%.
That’s nearly a $20,000 BTC range.
The only thing you can do is not guess the numbers—but manage your position.
/ Conclusion
Nonfarm isn’t the end, but the starting gun for September’s market.
Before the gun fires, manage your position well.
At 8:30 PM Friday, when the data comes out—don’t panic, don’t be greedy, follow the script.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Many DeFi projects talk about buybacks, but few can continuously buy 30% of the circulating supply through fees. On August 31, $RAY revealed a new milestone: RAY buybacks supported by protocol fees have accumulated over 30% of the current circulating supply. This is different from simply announcing a "buyback plan," because the money used to buy coins comes from the actual transaction fees generated by the protocol. 1. Raydium is turning protocol revenue directly into RAY buys The logic behind Raydium is actually quite simple. Users trade within the protocol → the protocol generates fees → uses part of the fees to buy back RAY. As of July 2025, Raydium has cumulatively repurchased about 69.1 million RAY, spending about $190.4 million. Now, the cumulative buyback scale has further exceeded 30% of the current circulating supply. So this is not a one-time benefit, but a mechanism that has been running for a long time. 2. DeFi increasingly needs to answer a question: What does the money earned have to do with tokens? Many protocols have users, trading volume, and income. But what token holders care about most is: what does the money earned by the protocol ultimately have to do with the tokens in my hands? Buybacks are currently the most direct answer. If the protocol's revenue is higher and buybacks increase, tokens can attract sustained market buybacks, which is easier to understand than simply talking about governance rights and the future ecosystem. 3. But having more buybacks does not necessarily mean tokens are more valuableThis SOL proposal is eye-catching with about 18.9 million fewer tokens issued over six years. I'm more interested in the staking rewards three years from now.
SGP-0002 was finally approved with 67.001%, just 0.331 percentage points above the 66.67% threshold. It increases the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, while the long-term inflation floor remains at 1.5%. The expected time to reach this is shortened from about 5.7 years to 2.8 years.
According to the proposal model, the nominal staking yield may drop from the current 5.84% to 4.34% in the first year and 2.25% in the third year. Reduced issuance can ease token dilution, but stakers will receive fewer new SOL. Small validators relying on inflation income will face more pressure, with the model estimating about 30 will become unprofitable within three years.
My judgment is simple: tightening the supply schedule has value, but it won't automatically create demand. Transaction fees, application revenue, and validator concentration all need to be observed together going forward. Even after the vote passes, implementation and activation are required; tokens won't suddenly be issued less today.
Data: Solana governance proposals, The Block. Personal record, not investment advice.
$SOL #SolanaInflationReductionProposalPassedBitcoin ETF sees a renewed inflow of $200 million
But what we really need to watch today is the US Treasury
$BTC has been hovering around $78,000 since entering September. There's good news today: after a day of net outflows, the US spot BTC ETF has just turned back to a net inflow of $216.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting about $205.9 million.
However, I think what really needs attention today is no longer the ETF.
Oil prices have surged back above $90, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.78%, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly intensified. BTC's lowest point last night was about $77,200.
So I won't be too aggressive on BTC in the short term.
The positive side is that BTC has already risen 24% in August, and during this high-level consolidation, the open interest in perpetual contracts has actually dropped to the lowest since May, indicating that leverage hasn't been piling up wildly.
If it holds around 77,000 next, I'll keep waiting for it to reclaim 80,000; if it breaks below 77,000, we need to guard against a deeper pullback.
$BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Recently, my AI automated trading system has been running for a while. From the initial 0.17U, to a drawdown in the middle, and then the account to above 15U again, the whole process is much more interesting than I initially imagined. But recently, I suddenly discovered a new problem. When the system has a bug, I want to fix it. When the system is losing money, I want to fix it. But now the system is making money— **I actually want to modify it. ** Hahaha. This might be the most amazing thing about humans when dealing with trading systems. I always feel it could be optimized a bit more. Can I take profits go farther? Can this signal be moved earlier? Can I slightly increase the position? If I add another indicator here, would the win rate be higher? If AI considered one more condition, would it be smarter? As I thought about it, a system that was running normally might end up being sent into the ICU by my own hands. --- One of my biggest problems when trading on my own was that I liked to change my mind on the spot. I had planned it out. But when I saw the market suddenly move: "The situation has changed." Then I made the change. But later I realized that the so-called "situation has changed" is often just my emotions changing. Now that I'm working on AI systems, I realize this habit hasn't disappeared at all. It's just a different form. Previously, I changed orders manually. Now I want to manually change the code. Essentially, it's still: **I always feel that my judgment at this moment is smarter than the rules I set before. **Oil prices surged past $90, U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.77%, yet $BTC still holds between $78,000 and $79,000.
Is this resilience, or is the risk not fully priced in yet?
First, the market has already priced in the hawkish stance of the Fed. As long as upcoming employment data doesn't significantly exceed expectations, old negative factors alone are unlikely to cause the same level of impact again.
Second, simultaneous rises in oil prices and long-term bond yields will intensify inflation concerns. The longer interest rates stay high, the more new capital BTC will need to break through $80,000.
Third, price resilience does not mean a confirmed uptrend. BTC mainly traded between $77,000 and $79,000 overnight; bulls have defended the lower bound, but $80,000 has yet to be effectively broken.
Going forward, I’m watching two signals:
Whether employment data can reduce rate hike expectations, and whether BTC can break out with volume and hold above $80,000.
Holding above $80,000 would indicate the market is willing to overlook macro pressures; falling below $77,000 means we need to watch out for "delayed pricing of negative factors."
Do you think BTC is gearing up for a breakout, or are macro risks still not reflected in the price?
$BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 过去8小时，一条新闻被塞进了“AI军备竞赛”的固定框架里：Anthropic与Lambda签了350亿美元云计算协议，数据中心由比特币矿企Hut 8建设，英伟达持有租约。 大多数解读停在“矿企转型AI算力房东”这句正确的废话上。 但有一个细节，在几乎所有报道里都被当成背景板一笔带过，却恰恰是整件事里最反常的地方： 英伟达，一家卖芯片的公司，为什么要亲自持有一座数据中心的租约？ 这不是“业务延伸”能解释的。卖铲子的人突然开始租地皮，这背后有一个被忽略的赌注：英伟达正在从“卖完就走”的供应商，变成“必须赖在物理层”的算力地主。 而它愿意签下这张租约，恰恰说明——它比任何人都更早意识到，AI时代的真正瓶颈不是芯片，是电力。 把主语换成“那张租约” 换一个主语来看这笔交易。 主语不是Anthropic，不是Hut 8，甚至不是英伟达。主语是那张租约本身。 租约意味着义务。英伟达持有租约，意味着它承诺为这个物理空间持续付费，无论里面装没装满芯片、跑没跑起算力。一家毛利率超过70%的芯片公司，主动背上重资产的物理空间义务，这在半导体行业的历史上几乎找不到先例。 为什么？ 答案藏在一个数字里：Hut🔥 Recently, many friends have privately asked me if we can still see Bitcoin starting with 6 digits?
My answer is: it's difficult, but not impossible; it requires a black swan level catalyst.
If there is really a rate hike in September, BTC retracing to 73,500-75K is highly probable. But to get back to the 60K range, three negative factors need to trigger simultaneously: a systemic correction in the US stock market + accelerated selling by MicroStrategy/miners + large-scale continuous outflows from ETFs.
The 57,800 bottom has triple confirmation from the weekly five-wave structure + 200-week moving average + whale accumulation, so it can't be broken by just a single 25bp rate hike.
The 65K-68K range holds over 1 million BTC in chips; once broken, it will trigger a new chain reaction of sell-offs.
In short: a retracement to 73,500 is highly probable, but Bitcoin starting with 6 digits requires an unexpected shock and is not the baseline scenario. $BTC $ETH $SOL holding at 79,000, ETH weakly following at 2470, ETH/BTC ratio slightly fluctuates but BTC market dominance rises to 59.7%, ETH drops to 11.28% — money flows into hard assets, high beta assets are exposed. SOL and XRP fall along, not following the rise; ZEC flying solo on ETF is a false strength. Strength ranking: BTC > ETH > large-cap altcoins > MEME. The mid-stage of a bull market isn’t about blind gains; it’s about the mainline taking the meat while the edges sip soup. Holding the wrong asset in a bull market still leads to losses. #BTC high-level consolidation, stronger correlation with gold #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 $ARB ARB 0.111, OpenSea re-supports Solana NFT, and ARB instead rose by 28%. In terms of news, OpenSea has no direct connection with Arbitrum, so the rise seems a bit forced, but market sentiment has picked up, and short-term funds are looking for an outlet.
From 0.084 to 0.120, a 40% increase, SAR pushed from 0.073 to 0.087, EMA21=0.094, EMA55=0.091, the price has already risen above all moving averages, J value 91, RSI6=91.96, indeed short-term overbought. But overbought doesn't necessarily mean an immediate drop; entering at this position profits from sentiment, but losses can also be due to sentiment.
OpenSea embracing Solana again has no direct impact on Arbitrum's L2 narrative. This wave is more like sector linkage, treating ARB as a catch-up target for L2. If you chased today, what you need to think clearly about is: when market sentiment fades, how do you plan to handle this position?
Comment below, did you chase this wave or miss out? 🫡From the monthly chart perspective, if BTC undergoes a significant correction, October and November are more likely.
Currently, the single candlestick in August closing bullish has become a fact, and the active trading volume has increased significantly compared to July.
Based on the delta divergence principle we mentioned earlier, this clearly does not apply here, so the probability of a direct correction/drop in September is low; most likely, September will mainly experience high-level consolidation.
If September closes with the candlestick and corresponding delta values shown in the figure below, then a correction at the monthly level in October/November becomes possible.The Nasdaq is currently fluctuating around 30,000, and what really needs caution is that several attempts to break through the 30,000 mark have not been supported by significant incremental funds.
From the trend perspective, the highs continue to move lower, and the price is once again being suppressed by the descending trendline of the rounded top.
The rounded top has not fully formed yet, but the market has already shifted from a one-sided rise to high-level rotation. September is likely to determine the medium-term direction going forward.
The September interest rate decision is not about a rate cut, but whether to raise rates or keep them unchanged.
After Wash's hawkish stance, expectations for a rate hike have clearly intensified.
If employment data is strong, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to rise, putting further pressure on tech stock valuations.
If employment cools moderately and inflation falls in tandem, the Federal Reserve will hold steady, giving the market room to recover. If employment suddenly deteriorates, the rate hike benefits may not support the stock market, and funds might shift to trading recession risks.
Therefore, my baseline judgment for the Nasdaq in September is a weak consolidation.
The main resistance zone is between 29,700 and 30,100 points. Without volume to reclaim this area, any rebound here is more suitable for reducing positions rather than chasing gains.
If it breaks below 29,000 points, the next target is 28,500 points. A daily volume-supported break below 28,500 points would further confirm the rounded top, with downside targets near 28,000 and 27,200 points. Conversely, only by firmly reclaiming 30,100 points will the top risk ease, and the index will have a chance to challenge 30,900 points again.
In September, defense should be the priority, but there is no need to prematurely bet on a crash. The shape resembling a top is not important; a rebound without volume and support breakdowns are the true signals of a bearish turn.NFTs have not disappeared; they just no longer follow the same playstyle as before. On August 31, OpenSea officially resumed Solana NFT trading. Users can now directly buy and sell Solana NFTs on OpenSea, and $SOL has officially joined the 25+ blockchain ecosystems currently supported by OpenSea. It has been more than four years since OpenSea first tested Solana NFTs. 1. The NFT market has shifted from $ETH dominance to multi-chain competition. During the last NFT bull market, the market was almost inseparable from Ethereum. But now, it's completely different. Solana has established its own NFT ecosystem, and other chains also have their own NFT markets. OpenSea reconnecting with Solana essentially adapts to this change. Now, the competition is not just about "who is the biggest NFT platform," but about who can aggregate more assets and liquidity across multiple chains. 2. With OpenSea's return, competition for Solana NFTs will become more intense. Over the past few years, Solana NFT users have been more concentrated on platforms like Magic Eden and Tensor. Now that OpenSea has rejoined, it effectively adds another external traffic entry point. This is certainly good for Solana, but for NFT trading platforms, competition will become more direct: with the same batch of NFTs and users, where the trading happens will ultimately depend on liquidity, experience, andThe current crypto market is in a high-level oscillation phase of "rapid rise in August followed by a digestion period in September," overall weak and not a continuation of a healthy bull market.
BTC is tugging between $77,000 and $79,000, having surged above $81,000 in August but failing to hold. The weekend rebound accompanied by a flattening spot CVD is a bear-covering rebound rather than an active spot attack. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million on 8/28, ending a 9-day net inflow streak, with weekly inflows halved compared to the previous week; Binance reserves rose to a yearly high of 687,000 BTC, indicating accumulating selling pressure. On the macro side, the Fed remains hawkish, with over 60% priced in for a September rate hike, Brent crude oil has returned above $90, and US stock tokenization is diverting institutional funds, so liquidity is not increasing. ETH is slightly stronger (ETF still has small net inflows, defending the 2400–2500 range), but its high beta nature means it will eventually follow BTC down. SNDK is a US stock storage company, unrelated to this market.
Conclusion: Low volume, no ETF lifeline, macro pressure, short-term bearish view unchanged. Breaks above 79k–80k are traps; a pullback to 76k or even 72k is the baseline scenario. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $ZEC's recent trend has indeed been quite wild. In just about ten days, it surged from around 480 to nearly 900, firmly holding above 800, often spiking above 850. This is a typical theme-driven violent market.
This round of increase comes from the privacy narrative, ETF expectations combined with a surge of geopolitical safe-haven funds. In a volatile overall market, it has formed an independent trend, with a large number of shorts in the contract market continuously squeezed and liquidated. I placed a short order at 851 during the market pullback phase, and it was filled immediately, which also shows how volatile this coin is.
It’s important to understand that this kind of surge is driven by sentiment and capital, not a linear improvement in fundamentals. Although supported by narrative, the coin price is already seriously overbought in the short term, with volatility completely detached from the overall market. Shorting in a one-sided market carries extremely high risk, and theoretically, losses for shorts have no upper limit.
Even if your order is filled, don’t be careless. High-level theme coins rise irrationally and fall just as fiercely. The current overall market is still constrained by employment data and Federal Reserve policies. ZEC is a high-beta asset, and once the theme fades, the pullback will be very rapid.
This kind of asset is only suitable for light positions to test the waters; heavy bets must be avoided. Before the trend is complete, short squeezes can continue at any time. Strict stop-loss control is essential; do not fight the trend head-on.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Elon Musk said SpaceX's future revenue might reach Morgan Stanley's forecast seven years early, a figure so large that the market is hesitant to fully believe it immediately
Previously, when SpaceX talked about rockets, Starlink, and Mars, people bought into the imagination. Now that the valuation has been raised to this level, investors will start asking sobering questions: Is the launch frequency sufficient? Is Starlink's profit enough? Who will pay for AI data center revenue? How will the huge capital expenditures be sustained?
The vision is still strong, but a strong vision does not equal strong cash flow
I think SpaceX has now entered a new phase: in the past, it proved "can it be done," but going forward it must prove "can it make money after doing it." This is less romantic than a successful launch, but the capital market ultimately only recognizes this account
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 $ETH Ethereum (ETH) market this month, the core keyword is "waiting for a turning point" — the market is at the end of a contraction phase, with intense battle between bulls and bears, and no clear one-sided trend formed yet.
· Short-term direction (before September): Today is the closing day of August, bulls and bears are still fighting over the key $2500 area. Current on-chain data shows whales are accumulating, but contract market funding rates are low, indicating retail enthusiasm for going long is not high, lacking enough momentum for a decisive breakout or breakdown.
· Mid-term key catalysts: September (next month) is the main event. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, and if the staking yield function of the Ethereum ETF is approved, it will be a major positive. If these two events materialize, they could help ETH break out of the consolidation and test the $2600-$2800 resistance zone upward.
· Potential risks: If the US stock market weakens due to recession expectations, or if the September rate cut is interpreted by the market as "good news fully priced in," ETH may retest the strong support zone at $2400-$2500.
Your trading advice:
· Spot traders: Currently, you can accumulate in small positions below $2400, but do not go full position; keep ammunition ready to add more once the September direction becomes clear.
· Contract traders: Recent volatility is very low, suitable for breakout-following strategies. Consider entering with the trend when price breaks out above $2600 with volume or falls below $2700; within the consolidation range, it is recommended to wait and avoid being shaken out.
Final reminder: September is both an opportunity and a risk month; volatility will be extremely intense on the day of the rate cut, so be sure to control position risk.#Baysent plans to ease bank credit, high interest rate pressure to be resolved This move by Baysent seems like relaxing credit, but in fact, it is opposing Wash. The Treasury wants banks to lend more to inject liquidity into the economy; the Fed Chair wants to push inflation down to 2%. These two forces push in opposite directions, and the market is currently siding with the Fed—US Treasury yields have hit 4.75%, oil prices are still rising, and rate hike expectations are suffocating all assets.
But from another perspective, if credit really starts to expand, the increase in dollar liquidity in the market will support BTC in the medium to long term. Arthur Hayes also said that easing bank regulation essentially lets the banking system absorb debt, moving liquidity from the Fed's balance sheet into the market. The direction is right, but the transmission chain is too long.
The key is where the money ultimately flows. If it flows to the real economy and tech investment, that means economic expansion and increased liquidity, which is positive for BTC; if it only pushes up prices, the high interest rate cycle will be prolonged, and BTC will continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the market is still trading the negative news, but the direction of this round of policy is indeed moving towards easing. Once the market sees credit really flowing out, liquidity expectations will start to be repriced. $BTC @OKX星球 These days I have seen a particularly schizophrenic scene.
On one side, Federal Reserve Chair Powell is hawkish: inflation is too high, rate hikes are possible, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.75%, and the market is on edge.
On the other side, the US Treasury Department announced that starting September 9, it will at least double the repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds. What is a repurchase? It means the Treasury is spending real money to buy back its long-termThe greatest distance in the world is that even though both are public blockchains, you are feasting heavily on Solana while I am getting beaten up on Polygon. I've already said many times that a strong public chain does not equal a strong token.
Solana's 7-day average transaction fee has reached about 9,200 $SOL. The network usage and token supply linkage plan are steadily advancing, and SOL's value capture is increasingly evolving toward a utility-driven network; meanwhile, Polygon's transaction volume has grown by about 55%, but $POL has already fallen below the $0.1 support level.
Polygon has performance, staking, and a narrative of revenue growth, so what? In the end, the price will still ask whether network activity can generate sustainable fees and whether those fees return to token holders. The technical indicators of a public chain are only supply-side capabilities; token demand is a completely different matter.
Therefore, when researching public chain tokens, remember to follow the four steps: "performance—usage—fees—supply". Missing any one of these steps is incomplete $BTC climbed back to 79,000 today, but I really don't want to chase at this level.
This afternoon, checking the market, BTC has pulled back from the 24-hour low of 77,700 to around 79,169, with a high of 79,256.
If you say it's weak, it tried to break below 77,700 several times but failed; if you say it's strong, 80,000 is just overhead, yet after all the fuss it still hasn't held above it.
I'm currently slightly bullish in the short term, but I won't chase here.
Today, I’m mainly watching three things:
First, JOLTS will be released tonight at 22:00, and on Friday at 20:30 there’s the non-farm payrolls. Continued cooling in employment is favorable for BTC; if the data is strong, interest rate pressure will return.
Second, US Treasury yields are still not low. On August 31, the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields were 4.02% and 4.14%, respectively, so liquidity is far from being ready for a free run.
Third, $ETH is at 2,484, $SOL around 104; SOL is rising faster than BTC, indicating funds are still willing to take risks, but the mainstream hasn’t fully broken through.
My thinking is simple: BTC needs to hold above 79,500 before looking at 80,000; if it falls back to 78,000, I won’t buy yet, and if 77,700 really breaks, this bullish view is invalidated. ETH hasn’t passed 2,500, so no rush to chase.
Bullish or not, where to buy is another matter.
Will you chase at 79,000, or wait for 80,000 to truly hold?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #星球日报 BTC just experienced the strongest August in nearly 9 years: Can it still be chased in September? Reviewing historical data, I found～
In the just-passed August, $BTC rose about 24%, making it the strongest August since 2017, and also one of the strongest months for BTC since November 2024.
But what really interests me is not this 24% gain, but another question:
What usually happens to BTC in September after a strong August historically?
I looked through past data.
From 2013 to 2025, BTC had only 4 Augusts that ended with gains, occurring in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021.
Interestingly:
After these 4 rising Augusts, BTC fell in the following September every time, with an average drop of about 5.9%.
If you only look at this data, it seems easy to draw a conclusion:
"The happier the August gains, the more cautious you should be in September."
And from a longer-term perspective, September itself is indeed not considered a "good month" for BTC.
CoinGlass historical data shows that since 2013, BTC's average return in September is about -3.08%, making it one of the weakest months historically.
So the question arises:
Should we be bearish on September now?
I think it’s not that simple yet.
Because there is another very interesting piece of data:
In the last three Septembers, BTC actually closed higher every time.
Among them, September 2024 rose about 7.29%, and September 2025 rose about 5.16%. In other words, in recent years BTC has consecutively broken the so-called "September curse."
This precisely illustrates something I find very important in trading:
Seasonality can serve as background, but cannot be directly used as a trading signal.
"September often falls in the past" and "September will definitely fall this year" are completely different things.
Especially since this year’s market environment has changed significantly from the past.
What’s really worth observing now, I believe, is not the "September curse," but whether the buying behind this rally can continue.
On August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $202 million, ending a previous streak of 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows; the weekly net inflow was still about $925 million but has clearly cooled compared to about $1.92 billion the previous week. Meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance rose to about 687,000 coins, a high since 2026.
This means that if BTC wants to continue upward, it may need real spot and ETF funds to keep absorbing potential sell pressure.
So entering September, I won’t be outright bearish just because "September tends to fall historically," nor will I simply chase the rally just because August rose 24%.
I’m more focused on three things:
First, whether ETF funds accelerate inflows again; second, whether BTC can truly hold near $80,000; third, whether the rally is driven by spot buying or leveraged funds.
If spot demand continues to strengthen as prices rise, then the importance of historical seasonality should diminish.
Conversely, if prices keep surging but ETF inflows weaken, spot buying lags, and leverage keeps accumulating, then August’s big rally could actually make September’s risk-reward less attractive.
What really determines price is still capital.
The 24% gain in August is now history; the real question worth studying in September is: how much new capital is willing to keep buying BTC near the $80,000 level? $BTC BTC has reached 78,756, which is truly a headache. Stuck at 78,756, neither going up nor down—not strong, but not completely weak, it's the most troubling trap position. Upward, the 79,500-80,000 strong resistance is just within reach, but multiple breakthroughs have been repelled, leaving heavy selling pressure; Below 77,000-77,300 is another short-term lifeline; if it holds the oscillating structure, it remains intact. Once it breaks, it will need to clear out long leveraged chips downward. Currently, market tensions are at full height: 🔴 Suppression: Hawkish expectations for Walsh remain overhead, September rate hike expectations remain high, US Treasury yields are high, risk assets can be disturbed at any time. Long and short positions are piling up in the futures market; even slight movement can trigger insertion liquidations. 🟢 Bottom-Support: Spot ETFs still maintain net inflows, institutional buying supports the base, making it hard to break out of uncontrolled one-sided plunge. But this level torments traders the most: Go long, you're close to strong resistance, and a surge—shrinking volume can easily trigger a bullish pulse; Go short, with spot funds supporting the bottom, and a bullish candlestick can pull up at any time. Contrarian short positions are tough. Without big news, just keep sweeping stop-losses within the range. The real judge is Friday's nonfarm payroll data. - Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, prioritize testing 77,000, and if it loses, look to 75,000; - Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, so there's a chance to break above 80,000 on volume and open upside; - Data meets expectations, but you remain stuck in a box range, struggling for more time. Practical advice: 78756Wash's one sentence wiped out 4000 points, US military fires and BTC bows again—September starts, the market is still digesting double shocks
Hello brothers, the first day of September, the market is calmer than expected, but the story of the past week is enough to write a chapter.
BTC is currently reported in the $78,500-79,000 range, with a slight 1% rebound in 24 hours. ETH stands above $2,460, SOL returns near $103. From above 81,000 on August 26 to below 77,000 on August 31, then slowly climbing back to 78,500 today—these five days, the market experienced a complete "rally-crash-recovery" cycle.
And the tool for the crash was Wash's one sentence.
Wash's "there is still work to do" is worth 4000 points
At 10 PM on August 28, at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered a speech titled "The Era We Are In." This was his first appearance at Jackson Hole since taking office in May, and the market had waited a whole year.
His core argument was: PCE inflation year-on-year is about 3.7%, six-month annualized about 4.1%, far above the 2% target; the US economy remains strong, corporate capital expenditure year-on-year growth is about 9%, the highest since 2021; financial conditions, in his view, are "not restrictive."
Former Fed Vice Chair Brainard commented that this is no longer a Fed that hikes rates "only if data proves necessary," but a Fed that defaults to further hikes "unless data opposes." This logic reversal makes the market more nervous than the rate hikes themselves.
After Wash's speech, the CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% to 60%. BTC plunged directly from above 81,000, dropping more than 4,000 dollars in three days.
US-Iran conflict adds another blow
Just as the market had not yet digested Wash's hawkish signal, geopolitics delivered another heavy punch.
The US Central Command launched airstrikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil rose over 3% in response, breaking above $90 per barrel. BTC briefly fell below 77,000 after the news, with over $200 million long positions liquidated within an hour. More than 100,000 people were liquidated globally within 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $421 million.
Geopolitical conflict pushes oil prices up → inflation expectations rebound → rate hike probability rises further, this chain is still ongoing.
But BTC didn't collapse, indicating someone is buying the dip
Interestingly, although the news was all bearish, BTC ultimately stabilized near 77,000. The weekend's low-volume decline and absence of panic selling indicate bulls have not given up. US stocks are falling, oil prices are rising, but BTC is sideways at $78,000.
ETF data also supports this judgment. From August 17 to 27, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.04 billion. August's monthly net inflow exceeded $3 billion. The highest single-day inflow was $606.3 million. Institutions haven't fled; they're just adjusting positions.
How will September go? Two variables determine the direction
The biggest uncertainty is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16. If the inflation data released in September remains moderate, rate hike pressure can be temporarily eased. If data remains high, the 60% rate hike probability may become reality.
Tom Lee's view is: if the Fed holds rates steady in September, crypto assets (especially ETH) will likely trigger FOMO before the end of the year. CryptoSlate's September forecast model shows a median price estimate of $81,319.
Current position
BTC is in the $78,500-79,000 range, right between support and resistance. The resistance zone is $79,500-80,000 above, and the support zone is $77,000-77,500 below. Before the direction emerges, watching more and trading less is best.
This is not panic, but correction. Wash's speech is important, but if there really is a rate hike in September, the market has already been digesting it in advance. Once emotions are released, what should come back will come back.
Brothers, did you get swept in this wave? Let's chat in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH While XRP surged 40% within two weeks, the derivatives market showed an extremely rare divergence signal: retail leverage on crypto-native exchanges was rapidly unwinding (total open interest down 16%), whereas Wall Street-dominated CME futures positions surged counter-trend by 36%, with their share jumping to 17%. This is by no means a purely sentiment-driven rally fueled by retail chasing prices; rather, it is a structural repricing in derivatives deeply involving TradFi institutions, centered around the mid-September U.S. Senate CLARITY Act vote. The coexistence of declining open interest on traditional crypto exchanges and XRP's unilateral price rise indicates that retail positions in offshore high-leverage perpetual contracts are being flushed out. Conversely, CME's open interest share rose sharply from 10% to 17%, indicating that compliant Wall Street capital is taking over XRP's short- to mid-term pricing power from offshore retail. Hedge funds' net short positions doubled (to 116 million tokens): this is not purely bearish but more likely professional hedge funds engaging in basis arbitrage by "buying spot/selling CME futures" or hedging downside risk for large-scale spot accumulation. Asset management institutions and dealers' net long positions increased significantly (combined +88 million tokens): market makers and long-term asset managers locked in long positions simultaneously on spot and compliant futures, becoming the core buying force driving XRP from $0.99 to $1.38. The mid-September CLARITY Act proposal$BTC The group holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has cumulatively increased their holdings by 73,300 BTC over 60 days. At the same time, the group holding more than 10,000 BTC remains stable, with holdings at 43,300 BTC.
During the previous period from April to May (the so-called fake rally),
the group holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC had holdings about 20% higher than the current level.
The group holding more than 10,000 BTC showed the opposite trend, with holdings dropping by about -40,000 BTC at the peak, followed by a roughly 25% decline in Bitcoin.
However, this time the largest holding group shows a completely different structure;
shorting Bitcoin is currently not recommended, especially for long-term shorts with very distant take-profit levels.Agriculture stocks collectively surge, three fires burning simultaneously
Only 20 minutes after the market opened on September 1, Shennong Seed directly hit the 20% daily limit, with a turnover of 1.87 billion yuan (about 280 million USD). Wanxiang Denong hit 6 consecutive daily limits, Xinsai Co. 4 consecutive, Fujian Jinsen 3 consecutive, Kangnong Seed and Qiule Seed all soared over 10%. Grain, livestock, and modern agriculture sectors all surged together.
What is the market betting on? The first variable surprisingly is oil. Diesel price increases are forcing more countries to raise biofuel blending ratios, making the fuel market compete with people for grain. Then the Black Sea ports were attacked, blocking export routes, pushing wheat prices directly to a three-year high. Finally, El Niño dealt another blow, raising global grain price expectations.
Oil prices, war, and weather—three fuses lit simultaneously; it's no wonder agriculture stocks are exploding. But how far this rally can go depends on whether these three fires can keep burning.$SOL's current rally came suddenly without major news backing it. $BTC first broke through the consolidation range, directly triggering a large number of short liquidations. The liquidation buy orders then pushed the price higher, igniting market sentiment. $ETH followed closely, with gains even more aggressive than Bitcoin's. Capital overflowed into leading ecosystem projects, and $SOL also amplified its volatility, forming a clear transmission chain: BTC breaks the ice, ETH takes over, SOL bursts with elasticity.
There are no new on-chain positives; this rise is largely driven by capital and sentiment, essentially a typical short squeeze. A trader shared their experience holding a 2462 short position against the trend, watching the price climb steadily while reluctant to stop losses. Subjective judgment feels powerless against the flood of capital. This feeling is familiar; sharp rallies are often followed by pullback risks, so chasing highs or holding shorts requires extra caution.
Notably, internal capital rotation in the market is evident. After large-cap coins open up space, mid- and small-cap coins often follow, but sustainability is questionable. Without actual positive support later, the speed of pullbacks during sentiment decline can also be considerable. The more intense the market, the more necessary it is to calmly assess your position and risk tolerance. Avoid impulsive decisions due to temporary missed opportunities or floating losses.📊
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and leveraged trading carries extremely high risk. Please control your position size rationally and manage risks properly. $BTC $ETH $SOLRecently, something has been very popular on Robinhood Chain called "Stock Meme." Previously, when trading Memes, people basically used USDT, ETH, or SOL to buy. Now Robinhood has turned stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple into on-chain Tokens, so some people have started using these stock Tokens to pair with Memes. For example, AI/NVDA means using Nvidia's stock Token to buy the AI Meme. AI is still a Meme, but its trading pool contains NVDA Tokens. Why has this playstyle become so popular recently? Because these Meme pools are originally small, and the amount of stock Tokens on-chain is also limited. When more people join, prices are especially easy to be pushed up, so you often see gains of dozens of times.
Sometimes this even happens: the real HIMS stock in the US market is only worth about $30, but the HIMS Token on-chain is speculated up to sixty or seventy, even over a hundred..
So I think the simplest way to understand "Stock Meme" is: treating stock Tokens as chips to speculate on Memes.
In the short term, it's still a Meme casino, just with a more story-rich chip. But what's more interesting in the long term is that stock Tokens might really be used like ETH or USDT in the future—for trading, collateral, lending, and various DeFi products.🟠 BTC (Big Pie)
① Huddled in the old nest, the 80k barrier is really tough to cross
Big Pie is again stuck in the 78k-79k old nest today, not breaking out, with a small 24h rise of about 1%. However, volume has increased significantly compared to last week (+32% reaching 30 billion USD). But honestly, this rise feels a bit "hollow"—spot volume remains at a three-year low, mainly driven by futures and institutional ETFs. Today, macro factors dominate: US-Iran tensions flare up again pushing oil prices above 90, the Fed's hawkish stance is intense, and the September rate hike expectation has surged to 65%. Crossing the 80k barrier is really tough without some genuine positive news.
② Treasury companies are really spending big this week
Brothers, Strategy, Strive, and BitMine all increased their positions simultaneously on Monday. Just the first two spent over 500 million USD buying $BTC in one week, and Metaplanet also deposited 2400 coins (about 186 million USD) into Coinbase Prime. Institutions are playing a "stock-for-coin" closed loop, where the higher the coin price, the easier it is to sell stocks. However, Bitcoin ETFs just broke a 9-day net inflow streak last Friday (net outflow of 200 million USD). Whether this wave is institutions bottoming or a relay race, we'll watch as it unfolds.
🔵 ETH (Second Pie)
① Treated like a bargain by institutions, nailed to the floor
Second Pie performed well today, rising just over 2% in 24h to stand above 2470. The key is not how much it rose, but that BitMine bought another 53,501 $ETH, continuously accumulating for 65 weeks straight, now holding 4.9% of the entire market supply, just a breath away from 5%. Even more impressive, it has staked 86% of its holdings, with Chairman Tom Lee saying it can earn 335-390 million USD passively in a year. ETFs have also seen 10 consecutive days of net inflows. This is not bottom fishing; this is nailing it to the floor.
② Three strands twisted into one
Let's talk about ETH's "independent market" logic. In August, Big Pie rose 30% but spot volume hit a three-year low, while Second Pie was embraced as a treasure by institutions. Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, now accepts BTC, ETH, and $USDT as loan collateral, effectively opening an official ATM for ETH. Coupled with real staking yields, this wave of ETH is not controlled by speculative traders but by treasury + staking + ETF—three strands twisted into one. However, when oil prices and interest rates are pressured, in the short term, it still has to breathe along with Big Pie. $BTC ETF funds show structural divergence, with BTC and ETH institutional buying logic changing
It's a mess. On the surface, spot ETFs are collectively warming up, with net inflows in a single week hitting a nearly 10-month high, but when broken down, the nature of the money is different.
ETH is more stable; products like ETHA continuously attract funds, with capital leaning towards medium- to long-term allocation, betting on staking/ecosystem and subsequent policy windows. During pullbacks, there are buyers, and on-chain data shows exchange inventories being steadily withdrawn, indicating a clear trend towards self-custody. BTC-ETFs, on the other hand, have a more "trader-like" nature—following big rallies and withdrawing during consolidations, with some trading days already turning net outflows; on-chain, exchange balances have slightly rebounded, and long-term chips are moving back on-chain, preparing for swing trades.
The fundamental difference lies in the nature of the funds: BTC channels have heavier short-term trading and macro hedging capital, taking profits at any price tremor; new ETH inflows resemble allocation funds but are not blindly long-term—if interest rates and liquidity expectations tighten again, they will also exit.
So don’t just look at total net inflows; see who is buying and whether they can hold. For short-term BTC, watch liquidity and support around 80,000; for ETH, watch whether withdrawals and spot support continue. Don’t overfill your positions.
#Intensive employment data releases, Wash policy stance under scrutiny #BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold As a clumsy player, to master the Axis Robotics robotic arm task, I even got a PS5 controller, but still couldn't play well... @axisrobotics spent a fortune, yet still didn't achieve the goal — this is exactly like: "Spending 10 billion on the street trying to pick up a girl getting her nails done, but still failing, hahaha." Sigh, I feel mercilessly mocked by Mr. Zheng! --- Recently, Axis Robotics has been quite lively, for example, the official Twitter posted a video with a "bullish" style the day before yesterday, with a very concise caption, just a parenthesis and two words: (Data, Axis) This tweet sparked heated discussion in the community, but I dare say many people didn't fully get the meaning. I think this tweet has at least four layers of meaning: ▎First, it "rides" on the popularity of the bull meme — even the visually dull can see this. ▎Second, using such a rough scene that clearly looks like a modeling environment, it explicitly shows Axis Robotics' data production method. The massive data used for robot training is produced by Axis through simulation, remote operation, and other means. ▎Third, the video content clearly defines Axis as a data production farm, the data layer for robot training. ▎Fourth, and most interestingly, which many people overlook, why is it written as (Data, Axis) — this is not a normal promotional copy, but actually a little Easter egg: Axis means polar coordinates, where a point is usually represented as (r, θ).