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The tug-of-war at the 100-dollar mark often tests composure more than one-sided market moves. SOL repeatedly fluctuated around $102. Looking back at August, the price climbed from the $70 to $80 range to $110, an increase of nearly 50%, then pulled back and consolidated, barely holding above the 100 round digit. Bitcoin hovered around $77,000; although SOL's resilience outmatched the broader market, it consistently lacked breakout momentum. The monthly moving average reversed the previous decade's bearish decline structure, maintaining the medium- to long-term trend, with moving average systems forming dense support in the $80 to $82 range. The real variable came from the intervention of traditional finance. Charles Schwab, a brokerage managing 39 million accounts, plans to launch SOL spot trading, including AVAX and LINK, but SOL remains the primary target. Bitwise's SOL staking ETF has surpassed $1 billion in scale, with record trading volume, and net spot ETF inflows significantly amplified in August. On-chain data is also impressive, with spot, DEX, perpetual contracts, and tokenized stock trading volumes all reaching historic highs in August. Total DeFi locked value has recovered to $5.8 billion, with Sanctum surpassing Jupiter to become the top TVL leader; Stablecoin supply is about $16 billion, second only to Ethereum and Tron. Staking rate is close to 70%, and network fees rise with activity. Changes on the supply side are worth watching. Validators have approved proposal SGP-0002Trump has never directly endorsed Dogecoin like Musk did; his "milk" is all indirect, yet its impact is significant. In November 2024, he announced Musk would head the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, whose abbreviation just happened to be DOGE. Dogecoin surged about 27% that day, doubled within a week, and broke through $0.4. In January 2025, the department's official website went live, even featuring a Shiba Inu avatar, causing the coin price to pulse upward again. This is Trump-style product promotion: no direct mention of the coin, just hype, letting the market fill in the blanks itself.
The reverse is equally effective. In June 2025, the two publicly fell out, and $DOGE dropped more than 10% in a single day—Musk caused the rise, and Musk also caused the fall.
Will this happen again? The difficulty is clearly increasing. Musk has left the government, and the Department of Efficiency completed its mission in July 2026, fully cashing in the one-time "abbreviation collision" bonus. Trump now has his own crypto business, with his focus no longer on Dogecoin. To have another round, Musk would have to return to the center of power, or the White House would have to actively re-associate with this symbol. But the market's reaction to the same routine always diminishes: the first time is a rocket, the second time is often just ripples.Walsh has made inflation his priority. Now the labor market gets a vote. July's weak payrolls and revisions suggest hiring is losing momentum, while his Jackson Hole stance pushed hike expectations higher.
That creates a difficult setup: what happens if inflation stays sticky while jobs weaken? JOLTS, ADP and payrolls aren't just employment reports this week.
They'll test how much economic pain the Fed is willing to accept for price stability. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. But Global Markets Are Starting To Crack.
One thing on my radar right now is how Bitcoin is holding up while pressure is building across traditional markets.
$BTC is trading around $78K after recovering from the recent move toward $77K.
But the environment around it is becoming more difficult.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have climbed to 4.78%, their highest level since early 2025.
Brent crude is back above $91 as geopolitical tensions push energy prices higher.
And markets are increasingly pricing further interest-rate hikes.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — holding the $77K area
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity
🟢 $XRP — watching market rotation
The important part is that Bitcoin is not collapsing.
Global bonds are under pressure.
Oil is rising.
Risk assets are facing tighter financial conditions.
Yet Bitcoin is still holding near $78K.
That relative strength is worth watching.
The problem is that higher yields can make it harder for risk assets to sustain a major breakout.
If borrowing costs continue rising, investors may become more selective with capital.
That puts the $80K level in focus.
A clean reclaim above $80K would show that buyers are absorbing the macro pressure.
But losing $77K would tell a different story.
Especially if yields and oil continue moving higher.
There is also another catalyst coming this week.
U.S. economic data, including the jobs report, could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's next decision.
That means the next major move may not come from a crypto-specific headline.
It could come from macro.
This is where $ETH, $SOL and $XRP become useful to watch.
If major crypto assets continue holding up while Bitcoin consolidates, capital could simply be rotating.
If the entire market starts weakening together, then the macro environment is probably becoming the dominant force.
For now, I am watching the reaction around the key levels.
$77K is support.
$80K is resistance.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Strategy and BitMine simultaneously increased their holdings of $BTC last week, with a combined weekly investment exceeding $500 million‼️‼️
After a 10-week pause, Strategy resumed purchases, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318 from August 24 to 30, totaling approximately $369.7 million. As of August 30, the total holdings reached 845,050 BTC with a total cost of $63.73 billion, averaging about $75,412 per BTC.
BitMine has never stopped for 65 consecutive weeks, purchasing 53,501 $ETH this week, far exceeding last week's 32,447. The two-week cumulative increase is about 86,000 ETH. Total holdings have surpassed 5.9 million ETH, with 86% of holdings staked (about 5.07 million ETH).
Two different paths. Strategy relies on equity financing → buying BTC → stock price rises → refinancing in a closed loop. BitMine relies on staking to generate cash flow. One bets on scarcity, the other on income-generating assets. The same thing—they are both voting with real money.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Strategy与BitMine同步增持
#BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
NVIDIA just finished reporting, and Broadcom and Dell are up next. How far has this AI drama really gone?
Pharaoh says directly, the spotlight is shifting from GPUs to two sides—one is custom chips, the other is AI servers. NVIDIA has raised the ceiling, and now it's Broadcom and Dell's turn to test whether AI infrastructure can keep burning money.
Q3 AI semiconductor revenue guidance is $16 billion, up over 200% year-over-year, with full-year AI semiconductor revenue expected at $56 billion, up about 180% year-over-year. But the market isn't that easy to fool—the $16 billion guidance is about $1.2 billion less than the $17.2 billion expected by sellers, causing the stock price to plunge over 15% after hours, wiping out more than $270 billion in market value in one day.
On Dell's side, servers are selling like crazy. Q2 revenue hit $29.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year. AI server quarterly revenue was $16.1 billion, a staggering 757% increase year-over-year, with $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders. After the earnings report, the stock price surged as much as 39% after hours.
But Pharaoh must remind you, Dell's problem isn't about selling, it's about making money.
NVIDIA's earnings have already told the market that AI demand hasn't cooled off. Now it's Broadcom and Dell's turn to prove whether this chain can keep turning. Broadcom is the lifeline of custom chips, Dell is the leader in server delivery, and the results from these two will directly determine how much longer the AI infrastructure drama can continue. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $ETH $SOL #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
NVIDIA has already submitted its results; the demand for computing power is solid. But the market isn’t looking at the same question—
Dell reports earnings after hours, with Broadcom and Snowflake following in the next two days.
There are two key points to watch:
Hardware side: Custom AI chips, networking equipment, server orders—can the demand for computing power be converted into real profits and cash flow?
Software side: Cloud data demand—can it support more stable subscription revenue, turning the AI story from hardware sales into rental income?
NVIDIA has confirmed that computing power demand is still rising, but this week’s answer is different: Can AI revenue spread from the chip layer to the entire chain of servers, networking, and software?
Dell’s stock has risen significantly, with high expectations. Broadcom is critical in network chips; its guidance directly sets the tone for the data center interconnect market.
NVIDIA has run the first leg; whether the second leg can hold up will be revealed tonight.Cosmostation Wallet will gradually stop service starting today. The official announcement states that only the recovery phrase and private key export functions will be retained, affecting iOS, Android, and Chrome extensions.
The most important thing to explain here is not "hurry up and switch wallets," but what exactly a non-custodial wallet is.
A non-custodial wallet does not store on-chain assets. It stores the keys and uses them to sign transactions. Asset balances are recorded on the blockchain; the wallet is merely a tool to read balances, generate addresses, and submit transactions.
Therefore, stopping maintenance of the wallet app will not automatically delete on-chain assets. The real risk lies in users not backing up their keys or not confirming address consistency after importing into a new wallet. The recovery phrase does not export a "balance file" but the key material needed to re-derive account addresses.
When migrating, do not just look at the balance displayed by the new wallet. Cosmos accounts may involve multiple addresses, staking, delegations, unclaimed rewards, and different network configurations. After recovery, first verify the addresses, then confirm assets and staking status, and only then uninstall the old app.
Do not enter the recovery phrase on websites during migration, nor give it to so-called customer service.
This kind of event shows that wallet brands and interfaces may change, but on-chain accounts do not change just because an app goes offline. What users truly need to preserve long-term is verifiable, recoverable key control capability. $BTC ##Strategy与BitMine同步增持
These two companies represent two completely different treasury models. Strategy relies on financing ability, issuing stock to buy coins, betting on BTC appreciation. BitMine follows an interest-earning approach, buying ETH to stake and earn yields, effectively adding a layer of cash flow beyond the coin price.
Saylor's recent stock issuance to buy coins indicates that in his view, BTC's current price is still worth allocating. The market previously speculated whether Strategy had completely shifted to defense; now the answer is clear—it’s not that they won’t buy, but they are waiting for what they consider the right timing.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. First, institutional buying is back. The simultaneous moves by listed companies like Strategy, BitMine, and Metaplanet show that at least some capital still considers the current price within a reasonable allocation range. Second, the valuation logic of the two treasury models will continue to be compared by the market. Buying BTC for appreciation versus buying ETH to earn staking yields—different risk preferences will flow to different assets.
Simply put—these two major players acting simultaneously shows that institutional funds still have confidence in this sector.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH #Strategy与BitMine同步增持
The leader has something to say
Strategy and BitMine made moves simultaneously.
Strategy bought 4,603 BTC at an average price of 80,318 USD, spending 370 million USD, with a total holding of 845,100 BTC. The funds came from issuing common stock. $BTC $ETH $SOL
BitMine increased its holdings by 53,500 ETH during the same period, with a total holding of 5,901,100 ETH, of which 5,067,300 ETH are staked, generating an annual staking income of about 335 million USD.
The two companies represent two treasury models. Strategy relies on financing capability and BTC appreciation. BitMine adds staking income on top of ETH price. One bets on asset appreciation, the other on cash flow.
Continuous accumulation provides institutional buying pressure, but dilution from stock issuance and price volatility also affect company valuation. Investors need to compare not only BTC and ETH performance but also which model can sustainably increase per-share asset value.
BTC is around 79,000, continuing to hold short positions on ZEC, all long BTC positions near cost price have been sold awaiting a pullback; no heavy positions before the direction is clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.#Strategy and BitMine Increase Holdings Simultaneously Family, the two major holders of the crypto treasury made moves again this week.
Strategy bought 4,603 BTC from August 24 to 30, spending $370 million, increasing its holdings to 845,100 BTC, funded by issuing common shares. BitMine increased its holdings by 53,500 ETH during the same period, bringing total holdings to 5,901,100 ETH, of which about 5,067,300 ETH are staked, generating an annual staking income of approximately $335 million.
The two companies are taking completely different paths. Strategy relies on financing to expand its balance sheet and BTC appreciation—in other words, borrowing market funds to bet on BTC's rise. BitMine focuses on ETH plus staking income, benefiting from both price appreciation and interest, a dual-driven approach.
Continuous accumulation indeed provides institutional buying pressure to the market, but risks such as dilution from share issuance, asset concentration, and price volatility also weigh on the valuations of both companies. Investors now have to compare not only which is more valuable, BTC or ETH, but also which treasury model better conveys asset value to each share.
Family, the big holders are buying, but their logic differs. Are you siding with Strategy's financing and balance sheet expansion, or BitMine's staking yield? Share your thoughts in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $SOL ARB surged 40%, but your account is still losing money? This is the harshest truth in the crypto world.
Brothers, today ARB took off, a 40% increase, directly hitting 0.119 USDT.
The whole screen is shouting bull return, the community is full of "ARB is awesome."
But when you open your account—you see your position is still losing, margin is almost gone, floating profit and loss is -126.89 USDT.
Don't doubt life, you are not alone.
---
Today’s big bullish candle for ARB, on the surface, looks driven by the Robinhood Chain mainnet launch, after all, Robinhood Chain’s daily revenue has surpassed Ethereum.
But brother, data doesn’t lie.
On-chain data shows that nearly 99% of ARB’s trading volume today was wash trading—over 900 wallets trading back and forth. With a transaction volume of 390 million USD, you can judge how much is fluff.
What’s even more painful is that exchanges had a net inflow of 104,896 ARB today. Despite a 40% rise, the whales are sending ARB to exchanges—who are they selling to? You guess.
ARB hit a historic low of 0.0727 USDT just two weeks ago; today’s rise is just a breath of fresh air crawling out of the dead pile. A real trend reversal? Far from it.
$ARB $ETH $BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元
Latest Data
The Middle East situation escalates, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz rise, Brent crude oil returns above 90 dollars. Market $BTC 78780.
Market Consensus
The market worries that rising oil prices will push up inflation, delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations and suppressing risk assets; some funds also view $BTC as an alternative hedge tool amid geopolitical turmoil.
Underlying Logic Analysis
The conflict itself does not directly drive the coin price; the transmission chain is: oil price rise → inflation expectations rise → interest rate expectation changes → liquidity tightening or easing, ultimately affecting the crypto market, with short-term volatility significantly amplified.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Geopolitical uncertainty calls for avoiding blind speculation; focus on tracking changes in oil prices and US Treasury yields. 1. Overall Market Trend: Bottoming, Rebound, and Differentiated Consolidation
Over the past half month, the entire crypto market has experienced a very typical pattern of low-level bottoming → liquidity rebound → high-level differentiated oscillation.
In the early stage of the market, BTC was stuck in a horizontal range between 64,000 and 68,000, with overall weak liquidity and a dull market. Altcoins basically had no independent trends, mostly passively following the main market, resulting in very low profitability. The market was generally cautious, with most accounts in slight losses, trapped positions, or empty waiting.
With expectations of overseas liquidity recovery and marginal easing of regulatory sentiment, the market saw a clear recovery. BTC quickly surged, challenging the 80,000 mark, fully activating market sentiment.
The biggest feature of this rebound is the comprehensive recovery of altcoins, closely mirroring the market at the end of last year: every day there are strong rotating hotspots, with Memestock sentiment coins, AI intelligent agents, and event-driven market sectors erupting in turn. Leveraged markets saw massive short liquidations, and market sentiment rapidly shifted from freezing point to excitement.
However, after the rapid rebound, the market immediately entered a differentiation phase: BTC oscillated repeatedly at high levels, showing indecisive movement; altcoins that surged sharply in the short term began to experience violent spikes and rapid pullbacks, with significantly amplified short-term volatility, making overall trading much more challenging.
2. Summary of Core Trading Logic in This Market Cycle
1. Distinguish: Liquidity rebound ≠ Bull market reversal
The core driving force of this rise is macro liquidity recovery + sentiment repair, not a fundamental complete reversal or the start of a new bull market.
2. Altcoin market: extremely fast rotation The strongest DeFi coin in August is no exaggeration: $HYPE surged 53% in one month, but beware of hidden risks in September 💣
The entire market was volatile in August, yet HYPE quietly surged 53%, hitting a new all-time high.
HYPE is now above $80, having once reached a historic peak of $83.5 on August 26. Three catalysts stacked up:
First, Trump personally said that the CFTC is working on a US compliance channel for Hyperliquid's perpetual contracts, effectively opening a door for perpetual futures previously blocked in the US;
Second, the protocol activated AQAv2, using USDC reserve yields to buy back and burn HYPE, with an annualized amount of about $178 million;
Third, Hyperliquid accounts for 54.5% of the total on-chain perpetual open interest, dominating the market.
HYPE has gone from expensive to even more expensive, with a valuation multiple over 40 times revenue, all supported by expectations of the "CFTC channel." But insider unlocks are due on September 6, and before the first buyback arrives in October, it’s all still a story.
My stance: The coins with the strongest narratives often surge the hardest, but they are also most vulnerable to unmet expectations. Don’t blindly chase the highs; wait for a pullback before buying back in. Sisters, $BTC really isn't that easy to drop! The critical 77,000-78,000 level has been stubbornly holding for almost a week! 💀😭
Look at this chart—BTC is currently around 78,500, having surged from 64,000 last week to above 80,000, up more than 20%. Now it's just oscillating between 78,000 and 79,000. It neither falls nor rises, grinding on people's patience.
Why can't it drop? Spot buying is supporting it. There is indeed support at 77,000-78,000, with spot buyers mostly retail and some institutions. On Monday, the Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million, with BlackRock alone contributing $205.9 million, reversing Friday's outflow. Institutions are still buying, so spot is providing a floor.
But the problem lies in volume! BTC's 24-hour trading volume is only $13.7 billion, with a market cap of 1.57 trillion, meaning volume is just 0.9% of market cap, less than 1%. What does this indicate? It means very few chips are actively trading; most people are watching. When it touched 78,300, volume increased but price stalled—a classic "high-level stagnation" signal, showing rebound momentum is clearly exhausted.
Looking at the long-short ratio and funding rate: On August 17, retail long-short ratio surged to 2.22, though it has since fallen back, bulls still dominate. Funding rate hit a 19-month high of 0.0228% on August 14 and remains positive. Bulls pay shorts daily, yet price doesn't rise—a typical passive position structure. Open interest remains high, with total contract open interest at $54.99 billion.
The longer it consolidates, the more favorable it is for shorts. If 77,000-78,000 support breaks, the downside targets are 74,000 or even 72,000-74,400. Spot buyers are mostly retail and some institutions; the attitude of major players is key.
My BTC short is still held, opened at 77,918. The direction is right; now it's just waiting.
Sisters, at this level I choose to keep shorting! How far do you think this drop can go? Tell me in the comments!! 🧋💀
$ETH
$SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $TRUMP Quick view: Current price 2.4093 USDT, 24h +3.01% The Diaomao team transferred out 11.01 million tokens 2 hours ago, about 26.65 million U, directly sending them to the exchange. A familiar pattern: price rises a bit → transfers a bit → enters the market → price plunges. On August 23, they transferred 6.2 million U, and the price dropped from 3.6 to 2.4.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults $SNDK really played this move skillfully!
Originally, it was steadily moving sideways, then suddenly a chunk of capital rushed in, and the candlestick shot sharply upward. The move before the US stock market opened looked like a bear trap, but unfortunately, the upward momentum couldn't keep up. After some excitement, it weakened again.
Many people wondered how a single bullish candlestick suddenly surged without reason.
The key point lies in the MSCI index adjustment; August 31 was the effective date for Sandisk's inclusion.
This rise was not a retail investor frenzy buying up; mainly, index-tracking institutions passively rebalanced and bought in, with funds concentrated in the buy orders dumped at the close. With the positive news realized, many funds took profits accordingly, so the market naturally struggled to sustain the rally. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Wash's policy coordinates after taking office have already been laid out:
2% is the hard target, short-term interest rates are the main tool, less use of forward guidance, and prices take precedence over employment concerns.
After Jackson Hole, the market quickly repriced the "possible rate hike." Next, it’s not about hearing him explain again, but about seeing whether employment data will contradict this prioritization.
His logic has a fragile aspect. He attributes the slowdown in employment growth more to labor supply rather than demand collapse; he also believes current financial conditions are not tight.
This makes sense when unemployment and benefits are still low. Once this week’s data shows the combination of "hiring stops, layoffs begin, and working hours drop," the dual mandate will no longer be the "not conflicting" situation he describes,
but will become a market challenge: inflation hasn’t returned to 2%, but employment cracks first—will you still raise rates?
More troublesome is the communication style. He doesn’t want the market to answer by looking at the dot plot, but every data release is treated as a policy vote. Strong employment increases rate hike expectations, moving short-term US Treasuries and the dollar first; weak employment doesn’t automatically mean rate cuts, but his credibility and the September meeting come under pressure simultaneously.
Trump wants rate cuts, Wash emphasizes fighting inflation, and political noise will also be amplified by the data.
So this is not an ordinary nonfarm payroll week. It tests whether the new chair is willing to use cold data to correct his hot judgments. The framework can be maintained, but pricing must be data-driven. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 After Jackson Hole's hawkish tone, the market has raised the probability of a September rate hike to over 50%. The real test is not in the speech, but in the employment data rolling out this week.
Wash's premise is clear: with an unemployment rate of 4.1% and the labor market roughly aligned with full employment, the policy focus should be on prices rather than further insurance on the employment side.
The problem is that July's nonfarm payrolls already showed a net decrease. If August only rebounds to about 50,000, wages continue to cool, and job vacancies and initial claims weaken simultaneously, his narrative of "stable employment and not-tight financial conditions" will falter.
Conversely, if new hires recover, hourly wages remain sticky, and the unemployment rate stays pinned at 4.1%, the hawkish framework will hold, and the September meeting discussion will shift from "whether to move" to "how much to move."
Wash deliberately provides limited forward guidance, effectively handing pricing power back to the data. ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, and nonfarm payrolls will be released within days; single-month noise is large, but the combined direction is hard to ignore.
If employment clearly cools, rate hike trades should reduce positions; if employment is just "slow growth but not collapsing," and inflation remains above 3%, his phrase "there is still work to do" will be interpreted by the market as rates staying higher for longer.
This week, watch three things: whether new hires are just slow growth constrained by population, whether the unemployment rate turns, and whether wages pick up again. Numbers must align with the speech for the stance to pass muster. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 SOL feels like a 24-hour convenience store in the crypto world.
The decor isn’t the most refined, the shelves can be quite messy at times, and it’s stocked with both serious products and a bunch of new gadgets that are hard to understand. But it’s fast enough and convenient enough, so no matter what time you go in, you’ll always see people trading.
Many people study public chains, comparing TPS, technical routes, and valuation models.
Right now, I care more about a very simple thing: how often people actually use it.
If every operation on a chain requires repeatedly calculating fees and waiting a long time for confirmation, no matter how good the story is, it’s hard for people to form a habit. SOL’s advantage lies here: low operating costs and quick feedback make it easy for people to go from "just trying it out" to "playing again."
This is both its most attractive feature and its biggest risk.
Once the threshold is lowered, good projects can gain users more easily, but junk projects can also harvest faster. Every smooth confirmation in your wallet might make people mistakenly think making money is just as easy.
So I won’t assume there are opportunities everywhere just because the SOL ecosystem is lively.
But I also can’t ignore one fact: when more and more people are willing to actually open their wallets, click confirm, and complete transactions, this chain is no longer just a PPT.
As for how much SOL will ultimately be worth, I don’t have an answer for now.
I only know that in blockchain, the ability to keep people using it continuously is itself a very hard-to-replicate capability. $SOL #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 The key to trading this week is not individual stocks; the focus is on whether oil prices can break below 85 and when the probability of a September rate hike will drop below 50%.
Good earnings from Nvidia ≠ saving the world. Currently, there is a high oil price of $90 externally, and internally, Warsh is making tough statements that the Fed does not rule out a rate hike, followed by the potentially volatile non-farm payrolls. Do you dare to go against the big trend?
Besides watching how the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasury yields jump around, you also need to watch out for a stab in the back from the yen. Once the yen really starts pricing in rate hikes, all the arbitrage funds that borrowed cheap yen to buy assets everywhere will have to close positions overnight and flee, instantly draining market liquidity.
As long as oil prices stubbornly hold above $90, the market can go crazy at any time, but risk volatility will also be higher.
This week, don’t just get excited staring at the major indexes; wait until oil prices fall back below 85 and the rate hike alarm is lifted before acting. Don’t rush in to get slaughtered while the gods are fighting.
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
NVIDIA has proven with a hundred billion in revenue that computing power is not a bubble. The next question for Broadcom and Dell, who are taking over the baton, is—how far can the money flow along the AI hardware chain? Broadcom is watching whether the profit margin of custom chips can hold up, while Dell is looking to see if AI servers can maintain revenue growth. Two earnings reports, one testing "depth," the other testing "breadth."
After market close on Wednesday, Broadcom's Q3 revenue is expected to be 29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year. AI semiconductors are the core variable—Q2 already reached 10.8 billion, Q3 guidance is 16 billion, full year 56 billion, with a target exceeding 100 billion next year. Broadcom holds about 70% of the global custom AI chip market, used by Google, Meta, and OpenAI. The market is really focused on gross margin; custom chip profit margins are lower than standard products, and whether they can maintain around 74% is key.
After market close on Thursday, Dell's Q2 revenue hit a record 29.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 beating expectations. ISG server and networking revenue was 12.9 billion, soaring 69% year-over-year, mainly driven by AI servers. AI solution shipments exceeded 10 billion in the first half, and the full-year AI server shipment guidance was raised from 15 billion to 20 billion. However, PC segment CSG revenue only increased slightly by 1%, and consumer business fell 7%. Full-year revenue guidance is 105 to 109 billion.$BTC $ETH The most subtle thing in the market right now is not the quality of the non-farm payroll data itself, but how much the market has already "priced in" this data. July's non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000; including revisions for May and June, the total downward adjustment is 103,000, indicating the job market could collapse suddenly. The probability of a rate hike once plunged to 44%, but after oil prices rebounded, the rate hike probability returned to 50%. The Fed's internal vote was 9 to 3, showing such a large division that it became public. The market is already unsettled by this back-and-forth tug-of-war. Currently, the expectation is that August non-farm payrolls will rebound to a range of 58,000 to 80,000. This expectation is already significant, moving from negative to nearly 60,000; the market is betting on a "violent rebound." But whether this rebound is enough to lower the rate hike probability is uncertain. Wash just delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, saying there is still work to do on inflation. As long as employment doesn't collapse, he has reason to suppress inflation. So there are three scenarios: If non-farm payrolls fall significantly below expectations, for example below 30,000, the market will reprice the rate hike probability, and Bitcoin might rebound briefly. But don't chase the highs; the CPI for September 11 is still pending. If non-farm payrolls fall within the expected range of 50,000 to 80,000, this is the most conflicted situation—the expectation is met, but not enough to reverse the rate hike logic, and Bitcoin might face pressure from the good news already priced in. If non-farm payrolls exceed 100,000, the rate hike probability will jump, and Bitcoin will continue to be under pressure; 76,000 might not hold. At this point in the market, elasticity is very compressed, with everyone betting in the same direction; even a slight deviation in expectations could be amplified. The market🔥 Recently, many friends have privately asked me if we can still see Bitcoin starting with 6 digits? My answer is: it's difficult, but not impossible; it requires a black swan level catalyst. If there is really a rate hike in September, BTC retracing to 73,500-75K is highly probable. But to get back to the 60K range, three negative factors need to trigger simultaneously: a systemic correction in the US stock market + accelerated selling by MicroStrategy/miners + large-scale continuous outflows Market Brief: The Dual Game of SNDK's Fundamentals and Valuation
Market Overview
SNDK's fundamental data is impressive, with AI workloads driving demand for enterprise SSDs and NAND. Data center revenue has surged significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 437%. Institutions have listed it as the preferred stock in the storage sector. Inclusion in the MSCI index has brought passive capital inflows, which is a liquidity event rather than a fundamental change. Future sustainability depends on storage product demand and chip pricing.
At the same time, risks are also prominent: technically, it is in a downward channel, and valuation pressure above 1200 is significant.
Strategy: Do not chase the short-term sentiment driven by the index. Consider participating mid-term only after price retracement stabilizes and volume increases. Market funds are also watching whether Micron and Hynix can continue the rally. BTC is currently oscillating near the high level of 79,000.
Market Logic
The real demand from AI servers for large-capacity SSDs and cache hardware is the underlying logic for SNDK's rise. MSCI inclusion is only an incremental catalyst that can amplify short-term moves but cannot drive long-term trends.
Strong fundamentals do not mean prices will keep rising. Under high valuation, once demand expectations loosen, the correction space can also be large.
After event-driven rallies, the market ultimately returns to the storage industry cycle and product pricing for validation.
Trading Insights
Distinguish between fundamental benefits and event-driven benefits; do not mistake liquidity support for a new trend start.
Do not chase sentiment at high levels; rather, wait for a retracement and stabilization to give confirmation signals before making mid-term arrangements.Market Brief: Interpretation of the SNDK MSCI Index Adjustment Event
Market Overview
Due to an increase in market capitalization, SNDK has been upgraded from the MSCI Small Cap Index to be included in the MSCI World Mid and Large Cap Index. The adjustment officially took effect at the close on August 31 and is one of the largest new constituents in this index adjustment.
The index adjustment will trigger passive fund rebalancing: existing small-cap index funds will passively sell SNDK; MSCI World broad index funds will passively buy it. Meanwhile, arbitrage funds will position themselves in advance and close positions in the opposite direction at the effective date. A large volume of orders concentrated during the closing auction phase can easily cause sharp short-term spikes or drops.
Market Logic
The index upgrade itself is a positive event, but it does not necessarily mean the price will rise.
If incremental buying has already been priced in by the market, it is easy to see a pattern of "pre-emptive rally followed by a sell-off upon realization," meaning the positive news is already reflected in the price. The event will only amplify short-term volatility and will not change the medium- to long-term fundamental trends.
The storage sector already has significant valuation divergence, and combined with the concentrated trading caused by index rebalancing, this will further amplify intraday fluctuations, causing both bulls and bears to endure substantial profit and loss swings.
Trading Insights
This is an event-driven market; be especially cautious of "buying expectations and selling facts."
Do not simply go long based on the news of index inclusion; observe the actual trading volume and genuine market support at the time of realization.
Volatility during the event window will be sharply amplified; leverage positions must be reduced to avoid the risk of spikes during the auction phase. Market Brief: Tragic Review of Retail Short Sellers on SNDK
Market Overview
A retail investor shorted SNDK at $822 on May 9, and even added to the position along the way, only to face continuous short squeezes, resulting in a trapped position lasting five months.
Believing online opinions, some claimed 2380 was the top, while others expected a drop to 500-800, clinging to the fantasy of breaking even and profiting. The funds came from loans, and as the price kept rising, approaching the liquidation line, there was no extra capital to add to the position, leaving the investor in a dilemma, with their mindset severely drained by the market.
Market Logic
The most painful aspect of a short squeeze in a speculative stock is fighting the trend with common sense. Subjectively labeling it a bubble or thinking the valuation is absurd does not immediately reverse the price.
Online opinions are mixed and chaotic; taking others' judgments as trading basis without your own stop-loss boundaries is risky.
Trading with borrowed funds distorts mindset completely; losses are no longer just account numbers but real debt pressure, making rational risk control execution difficult.
In a trending market, "feeling it has risen too much" is not a reason to short; the price can continue to be squeezed higher, and shorts will keep getting squeezed.
Trading Lessons
Do not trade with borrowed funds; debt amplifies trading risks exponentially. Nonfarm Payroll Countdown: 5 Quick Takes to Help You Clear Your Mind
Friday night at 8:30 PM, a report.
It could send your long positions to heaven or kick them straight to hell.
Don’t panic, 5 quick takes, 60 seconds to understand the whole picture.
Quick Take 1: Rate hike probability 57%-60% — the market has heavily priced it in
After the Jackson Hole speech by Waller, the September rate hike probability jumped from 35% to 58%, and now CME FedWatch shows it in the 54%-60% range. The market has already priced in the hawkish expectations in advance.
If nonfarm is weaker than 50,000, this probability will plunge. If stronger than 80,000, the rate hike is basically locked in.
Expectation gaps are the source of volatility.
Quick Take 2: BTC current price $79,000, institutions are buying, price hasn’t surged — what does this mean?
In August, Bitcoin spot ETF monthly net inflows exceeded $3 billion, the strongest single month since 2026. Last week’s single-week net inflow was about $920 million.
Institutions are scooping up, but the price hasn’t taken off.
What does this indicate? It means sellers are just as fierce. Some are buying, some are selling. The $79,000 level is the real battleground between bulls and bears. $77,000-$81,000 is the recent core volatility range.
Quick Take 3: Huge expectation divergence — the greater the volatility, the sharper the spikes
Reuters survey market expectation +58,000, Deutsche Bank forecast +65,000, Wells Fargo forecast +80,000, some institutions even predict negative growth. JPMorgan says 30,000 to 70,000 is the friendliest range for the market.
The bigger the expectation gap, the more intense the volatility.
Friday night, be ready for spikes. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Quick Take 4: Nonfarm is just the first hurdle, inflation is the final judge
Don’t forget the schedule: September 10 PPI, September 11 CPI. Nonfarm decides whether the employment-side evidence is enough to stop rate hikes, but inflation data still holds the final pricing power.
Don’t put all your positions on Friday night.
Winning nonfarm is just the first round. CPI is the final round.
Quick Take 5: “Low hiring, low firing” — focus on expectation gaps, not the numbers themselves
July nonfarm -23,000, May and June combined revised down by 103,000. Last week, the Labor Statistics Bureau released the annual benchmark adjustment, revising nonfarm employment down by 862,000.
The true picture of the current job market in six words: low hiring, low firing.
In this pattern, marginal changes in nonfarm data matter more than absolute values. Don’t focus on “how many thousands were added” — focus on expectation gaps.
Data beats expectations → rate hike probability rises → risk assets fall.
Data misses expectations → rate hike probability falls → risk assets rise.
The logic is that simple. Execution? Depends on how fast your hands are.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The highest-level way to cover up an avalanche is not to repair the dam, but to throw a bloody peach-colored gossip to the public.
Have you ever thought about the deeper aspects of the Jing Tian incident? Why did Sun Ge release this little essay at this point in time? The Jing Tian incident broke out on August 27.
On July 23, the EU followed up with the 21st round of sanctions against Russia, including HTX on the trading ban list, effective August 23.
On the same day, Binance announced it would stop financial transactions with HTX and 10 other platforms.
In just three months, a major exchange with an annual trading volume of 3.3 trillion USD and over 55 million registered users was successively blacklisted by two major jurisdictions.
The moment the long article was published, the trending search list was completely wiped out, and the entire internet fell into a frenzy. The truth didn’t matter; no one cared about a European photo of an exchange because humans can never resist top celebrities, billions in cash, and the bloody scent of high society.
This business makes money, but every penny accumulates regulatory risk.
The UK is the same. HTX was already on the warning list of the UK Financial Conduct Authority in 2023, repeatedly ignoring warnings, continuing to run ads and attract users. In October 2025, the FCA filed its first-ever lawsuit against a crypto company, targeting HTX. @OKX星球 Before every nonfarm payroll report, someone always asks me the same question: "Bullish or bearish?"
My honest answer is just three words—I don't know.
And I think right now, no one can say for sure.
Bitcoin just went through a violent rebound—up over 20% in August, surging from above $60,000 to over $79,000.
But if you think the trend is clear now, you're mistaken.
Bitcoin opened Tuesday at $77,500, then experienced sharp volatility, briefly dipping below the 50-week moving average of $77,269 before pulling back. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.76%, continuing to pressure risk assets.
Prices are rising, but the foundation is shaky.
Why do I say "no one can say for sure"?
Because the market is stuck in a deadlock—all signals are conflicting.
Signal A: Waller turned hawkish.
After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 60%. Waller clearly stated the 2% inflation target remains unchanged.
Signal B: But the September hike probability is only about 60%.
57%, 58%, 60%—numbers vary slightly across institutions. But looking further, there's still over 40% chance of no hike. The market itself hasn't reached consensus.
Signal C: Employment is cooling down.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. The three-month average job growth is only about 20,000.
Signal D: But unemployment rate is falling.
July unemployment dropped to 4.1%, a 13-month low. But this improvement is due to labor force participation falling to 61.4%—not more jobs, but fewer people looking for work.
Signal E: Inflation is improving but still high.
PCE at 3.7%, core PCE at 3.3%, above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Wage growth is slowing, but price pressures remain.
Signal F: Geopolitics could reignite inflation at any time.
US-Iran conflict shut down one-fifth of global oil supply. The trade war with Canada just restarted. The AI boom is pushing chip prices higher.
Employment is weak, but not weak enough. Inflation is high, but not too high. Rate hike odds are high, but uncertain.
Sixty percent versus forty percent. This is not direction, this is a coin toss.
The August nonfarm payrolls released Friday are expected to show job gains between 50,000 and 80,000. July was -23,000.
If the data falls within 50,000 to 80,000—that's neither strong nor a collapse. Insufficient evidence to hike, insufficient reason not to hike.
So how will the market move? I don't know.
And don't forget—after nonfarm payrolls, there's CPI. August CPI will be released on September 10 and 11. The Fed meets on September 15-16.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls won't answer "Will there be a hike in September?" but rather "Is the labor market weak enough to stop a hike?" The final answer depends on CPI.
So what about those shouting "all in" and "liquidate" in chat groups?
Two types of people.
One truly doesn't understand. They simplify a complex system into binary logic: "good data = price down, bad data = price up." But reality never works that way.
The other pretends to understand. They know they don't know, but "calling trades" gains followers, leads trades, and earns traffic. Giving a definite answer during market anxiety—even if wrong—is more shareable than "I don't know."
But "shareable" and "valuable" are different.
I don't think shouting "all in" at this point is responsible.
Nor do I think shouting "liquidate and run" is rational.
The complexity of this market exceeds anyone's predictive ability.
Admitting this is not shameful. In this industry, admitting "I don't know" takes more courage than pretending "I know it all."
So what to do? Stop trading?
Not stop trading. Change the way you trade—from "betting on direction" to "managing risk."
My response framework is simple, just three points:
First, data first, no preset direction.
Betting heavily before data comes out is gambling, not trading. Wait for data to land, see the market's real reaction, then act. Being slow won't kill you; rushing might lose everything.
Second, position discipline, leverage no more than 3x.
Whether you're bullish or bearish, leverage over 3x is handing your fate to luck. On nonfarm night, volatility can burst your position in a heartbeat.
Third, stagger your trades, don't bet all at once before nonfarm.
No one knows how data will turn out, nor how the market will interpret it. Enter in three batches; if wrong, you can correct. Betting all at once leaves no chance to recover.
How long you survive in this market doesn't depend on how many times you are right.
It depends on whether you can keep playing after being wrong.
On nonfarm night, I don't bet on direction.
I only bet on one thing—those who manage risk live longer.
My value is not to give you a price prediction.
My value is to help you build your own decision framework amid uncertainty.
People shouting bullish today and bearish tomorrow are everywhere. But when everyone is anxious and wants a "definite answer," those who dare to say "I don't know, but here is my response plan"—that content is worth your time.
If you must trade, remember three things:
Set stop-loss. Set stop-loss. Set stop-loss.
Important things said three times. The volatility on nonfarm night can't be weathered by faith alone.
Don't overleverage. Save some bullets for Monday—after the market digests data and calms down, the direction then is more reliable.
Don't chase highs or sell lows. The volatility in the five minutes before data release is likely noise. Let the dust settle.
The market is complex, too complex for anyone to predict accurately.
But one thing is simple—manage your position and survive to see tomorrow.
On nonfarm night, I don't call trades, don't go all in, don't liquidate.
I only do one thing: control what I can, accept what I can't.
And "whether you can predict correctly" just happens to be the latter.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Pre market thoughts - 1 Sep 26 22 years ago - the song "Wake me up when September ends" was released. Summer has come and passed. For many market participants looking at seasonality, September has traditionally been a difficult month. I have heard many calls to derisk. Personally i am staying risk on for a few reasons - 1. July was supposed to be a fantastic month, instead we had the worst momentum crash. I suppose seasonality is not working this year. 2. Going into the mid terms, I stand by my #LaborMarketTestsWalsh This week’s labor data may tell us whether Walsh’s inflation-first stance has enough room to hold 👀
JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and August payrolls are all coming, after July payrolls fell by 23K and May–June figures were revised down by another 103K. That already points to a softer hiring picture.
At Jackson Hole, Walsh emphasized that inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions aren’t restrictive and price stability should stay the priority. Markets reacted quickly, with September hike odds briefly moving from around 35% to nearly 60% 📊
What I find interesting is the tension between those two stories. The Fed may want to keep pressure on inflation, but continued labor weakness would make additional tightening harder to explain.
One weak report probably won’t settle the debate. But if several labor indicators soften together, the question may shift from whether policy is restrictive enough to whether it is starting to become too restrictive.Huobi's poisoning-style transfers were suspended on the evening of August 28th
Not sure if it was because the "little essay" caused too much negative impact, or if CZ spoke out to discourage it, or if it was due to communication protests from Coinbase and Kraken exchanges.
Anyway, this disgusting little move that dragged innocent users down without any explanation finally stopped
The wallet used for the transfers seems to be the same address that WLFI identified as the one Sun Ge used to dump WLFI
It's kind of a dark humor in itself #Bitcoin rose 23% in August, outperforming gold and the stock market #Bitcoin holds steady above $78,000 #US crypto-related stock index up 8.81% in August
BTC rose 23% in August, crushing gold and the stock market. To put it plainly and explain the logic, let's also talk about sustainability.
This rally in August is essentially a resonance of macro expectations, liquidity, and derivatives.
The most direct trigger was the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, which the market interpreted as improved liquidity, benefiting non-sovereign assets collectively.
Additionally, the SEC released regulatory positive signals, funds flowed back into the AI sector earlier, and spot buying started entering the market. Due to the previous consolidation period where shorts were overly crowded, once the price broke through a key level, it directly triggered the largest short squeeze in history, with passive buying further amplifying the gains.
ETFs had net inflows close to 3 billion over 9 consecutive days, providing strong support, but starting August 28, there was a 200 million outflow, and short-term momentum began to weaken. Nonfarm payrolls are the first act of the September rate hike script; CPI is the grand finale
You stare at the candlestick chart, your heartbeat syncing with the candles.
Bitcoin hovers around $78,000, unable to break up or down.
Everyone is waiting for Friday—the August nonfarm payrolls.
But I want to tell you a fact most people overlook:
Nonfarm payrolls are not the end. They are just the beginning.
1/ Let's first look at the current situation.
CME FedWatch shows the market pricing a 65.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
Just a week ago, this number was only about 35%.
What happened? Waller hawked at Jackson Hole.
He said inflation has not shown "meaningful improvement," the 2% target is "firm and unwavering," and if core inflation does not clearly and quickly decline—"there's more work to do."
In one sentence, he nearly doubled the rate hike probability.
2/ How did Bitcoin react?
Before Waller's speech, BTC had just surged above $81,000.
After the speech, it turned sharply down from $81,000, dropping about 5.7% within a week.
Now it trades sideways between $77,100 and $78,400.
Neither up nor down. No rise, no fall.
The market is waiting. Waiting for a definitive direction.
3/ But most people got one thing wrong.
They think Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the answer.
Wrong.
Waller himself has already sealed the narrative—from now until the September 16 FOMC meeting, every employment and inflation report either reinforces or weakens his stance.
Nonfarm payrolls are just the first piece of the puzzle.
4/ Here's a complete timeline:
September 4 (Friday) — August nonfarm payroll report.
Economists expect an increase of 55,000 to 80,000 jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
July data showed a decrease of 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000.
The first piece of evidence on the employment side.
September 10 (Wednesday) — August PPI (Producer Price Index).
Are business costs rising or falling? This is the "upstream signal" of inflation.
September 11 (Thursday) — August CPI (Consumer Price Index).
This is the real decisive factor.
If core CPI month-over-month rises above 0.3%, rate hike expectations will soar.
If it drops to around 0.1%, the FOMC has reason to hold steady.
September 16 (Wednesday) — FOMC meeting.
The final verdict.
5/ Understand now?
Nonfarm payrolls are just the first act. CPI is the grand finale.
There is a whole week in between.
If you bet right on Friday, next week's CPI could overturn everything.
If you panic-sell on Friday, next week's CPI might make you regret it deeply.
6/ Three scenarios, consider carefully:
Scenario 1: Weak nonfarm + weak CPI
Employment collapses, inflation falls → rate hike probability plummets → BTC violently rebounds.
Scenario 2: Weak nonfarm + stubborn CPI
Employment weak, but prices stubbornly high → Waller's dilemma: hiking kills jobs, not hiking lets inflation continue → high volatility, unclear direction.
Scenario 3: Strong nonfarm + stubborn CPI
Employment resilient, inflation won't fall → rate hike probability shoots above 80% → BTC may directly retest $70,000.
The deadliest is scenario two. Also the most probable.
7/ The harsh truth is here.
July nonfarm already decreased by 23,000. May and June were revised down by 103,000 total.
The real employment market situation is much worse than surface data.
But what did Waller say at Jackson Hole? He said the labor market is "healthy," and the slowdown in job growth is a "demographic issue, not a recession."
He labeled the poor nonfarm data as "structural" rather than "cyclical."
What does this mean?
It means even if Friday's nonfarm looks bad, he may not ease up.
What he needs is CPI to fall. Not employment to rise.
8/ Here's a more painful truth.
Your current position is not really betting on nonfarm payrolls.
You're betting on two things:
First, whether CPI will fall.
Second, whether Waller is willing to admit he was wrong.
A person who just hawked at Jackson Hole, pushing rate hike probability from 35% to 65%—do you think he will backtrack in two weeks?
"Words don't equal actions."
But "words" themselves are a form of action.
9/ So what to do?
Don't put all your chips on nonfarm night.
Nonfarm is a smoke screen. CPI is the nuclear bomb.
There's a whole week in between. You have enough time to observe, adjust, and reposition.
Don't FOMO, don't panic, don't shoot all your bullets in the first act.
10/ Conclusion
Bitcoin is trading sideways near $78,000.
The market is waiting.
Waiting for nonfarm, PPI, CPI, and Waller's final judgment.
Nonfarm payrolls are the first act of the September rate hike script; CPI is the grand finale.
Don't put all your chips on the first act.
The real show is just beginning.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 A few points on interest rate hikes and political macro factors:
The market has over 50% expectation of a rate hike; September may see no hike, or it might be delayed until after the midterm elections or only one hike by the end of the year. It is highly likely there will be no consecutive hikes this year.
If the Trump administration implements semiconductor tariffs in the future, it will exert sustained downward pressure on the semiconductor sector.
The political struggle between the two parties is intense. It is expected that the Democrats may gain more seats in both the House and Senate in the midterm elections, thereby limiting the Trump administration's executive power; before the midterms, the market is prone to sharp declines and volatility to shake public sentiment. The A-shares basically follow the US stock market, so September and October will likely be volatile. There may be a noticeable pullback before the midterms, which is normal, especially around September 18, when there are many short positions in overseas markets, potentially causing significant volatility. This does not necessarily mean one should short. On the contrary, I personally believe the pullbacks in September and October are opportunities to get back in, leading up to the last rally through the midterms and even until the end of the year.
The direction can be gauged by the high targets of the US stock market; the S&P is looking above 8000, so cryptocurrencies, stocks, etc., can use this pullback to prepare for the midterm rally.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 On the eve of the nonfarm payrolls, three sets of data will decide life or death: What does a "just right" employment report look like?
You’re holding Bitcoin, watching it hover around $78,000.
Is the rise and fall all guesswork? Is the news all speculation?
Stop guessing. At 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, a report will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates on September 16.
This is not a drill. This is the starting gun for September’s market.
1/ Let’s first talk about the current situation.
Bitcoin surged from $68,000 in August to above $81,000, nearly a 20% increase. But after Waller’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, BTC fell back and is now consolidating around $78,000.
Neither up nor down. That’s the most frustrating.
CME FedWatch shows the market’s probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has jumped from under 40% before Waller’s speech to 65.4%. A December hike is fully priced in.
In other words: the market is prepared for a September rate hike.
But this preparation could be completely overturned by Friday night’s report.
2/ Remember three numbers.
At 8:30 PM on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the August nonfarm payroll report.
Mainstream market expectations:
New jobs: 55,000–58,000
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
Average hourly earnings: month-over-month 0.3%–0.4%
Predictions vary: Deutsche Bank forecasts 65,000; Wells Fargo forecasts 80,000. Economists generally expect about 55,000.
July’s data was -23,000. May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000.
This means the job market is cooling. The question is—cooling enough to stop the Fed from hiking?
3/ Three sets of numbers, three destinies.
When Friday’s data comes out, there are basically three scenarios, each corresponding to a completely different BTC trajectory.
🔴 Scenario 1: Data < 30,000 (extremely weak)
If August nonfarm new jobs are under 30,000—or even negative again—that means the job market is worse than expected.
The probability of a rate hike will plummet. The dollar will dive, and U.S. Treasury yields will collapse.
BTC? A violent rebound. $85,000 might just be the starting point.
The market will immediately price in “the Fed won’t dare hike”—why hike when the economy is like this?
🟡 Scenario 2: Data 30,000–70,000 ("just right" range)
This is the most market-friendly script.
Weak employment means the economy is cooling, giving the Fed reason to hold steady.
But no collapse means no recession, no panic needed.
JPMorgan calls this the “Goldilocks zone”—employment weak but not collapsing, a slight drop in hike probability, and a mild rebound in risk assets.
Under this scenario, BTC will likely trend upward with volatility but won’t surge violently. The market will wait for the CPI data on September 10–11 for a final judgment.
🟢 Scenario 3: Data > 80,000 (stronger than expected)
If August nonfarm exceeds 80,000—or even hits over 100,000—a rate hike is basically locked in.
Waller already said at Jackson Hole: inflation must return to 2% "clearly and quickly enough." With such strong employment, why wouldn’t he hike?
U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, putting short-term pressure on BTC.
Bitfinex analysts warn: if nonfarm exceeds expectations, BTC may face further selling pressure. Some traders predict BTC could drop to the $73,000–$75,000 range.
4/ But here’s a detail most people overlook—
The truly important factor may not be the new jobs number itself.
Capital Street FX analysis is clear: what’s most worth watching on Friday isn’t just the new nonfarm jobs. Labor force participation rate, wage growth, and historical data revisions better reflect the underlying changes in the job market.
July’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, which sounds good. But that’s because the labor participation rate fell to 61.4%—some people simply stopped looking for work.
If August’s labor participation rate rises back to 61.5%, the unemployment rate might look unchanged, but the underlying logic is completely different.
Don’t just look at the headline number. The devil is in the details.
5/ Here’s a harsher fact—
Nonfarm might not give the final answer at all.
Because on September 10 and 11, August’s PPI and CPI will be released.
Nonfarm decides whether the "employment side evidence is enough to stop a rate hike." Inflation data holds the last piece of pricing power.
In other words: weak nonfarm on Friday doesn’t guarantee no hike in September—you still have to watch CPI.
Strong nonfarm on Friday means a September hike is almost certain.
Nonfarm is the threshold; CPI is the final judge.
6/ So what should you do now?
Don’t bet on direction. Those who bet on direction end up losing to volatility.
Bitfinex data shows nearly $1 billion net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week. Institutions are still adding positions amid macro uncertainty.
What does this mean? Smart money doesn’t bet one-sidedly—they "build positions in batches."
You should do the same:
Before the data, don’t go all in or all out.
Set stop losses, don’t be greedy.
The 30 minutes after the data release is the most chaotic period—don’t make decisions then.
7/ Finally, some honest words.
One employment report will adjust the entire September.
A 65.4% hike probability means the market is leaning hawkish.
But if Friday’s data is below 30,000, that probability could be halved overnight.
If above 80,000, it could surge above 80%.
That’s nearly a $20,000 BTC range.
The only thing you can do is not guess the numbers—but manage your position.
/ Conclusion
Nonfarm isn’t the end, but the starting gun for September’s market.
Before the gun fires, manage your position well.
At 8:30 PM Friday, when the data comes out—don’t panic, don’t be greedy, follow the script.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Many DeFi projects talk about buybacks, but few can continuously buy 30% of the circulating supply through fees. On August 31, $RAY revealed a new milestone: RAY buybacks supported by protocol fees have accumulated over 30% of the current circulating supply. This is different from simply announcing a "buyback plan," because the money used to buy coins comes from the actual transaction fees generated by the protocol. 1. Raydium is turning protocol revenue directly into RAY buys The logic behind Raydium is actually quite simple. Users trade within the protocol → the protocol generates fees → uses part of the fees to buy back RAY. As of July 2025, Raydium has cumulatively repurchased about 69.1 million RAY, spending about $190.4 million. Now, the cumulative buyback scale has further exceeded 30% of the current circulating supply. So this is not a one-time benefit, but a mechanism that has been running for a long time. 2. DeFi increasingly needs to answer a question: What does the money earned have to do with tokens? Many protocols have users, trading volume, and income. But what token holders care about most is: what does the money earned by the protocol ultimately have to do with the tokens in my hands? Buybacks are currently the most direct answer. If the protocol's revenue is higher and buybacks increase, tokens can attract sustained market buybacks, which is easier to understand than simply talking about governance rights and the future ecosystem. 3. But having more buybacks does not necessarily mean tokens are more valuableThis SOL proposal is eye-catching with about 18.9 million fewer tokens issued over six years. I'm more interested in the staking rewards three years from now.
SGP-0002 was finally approved with 67.001%, just 0.331 percentage points above the 66.67% threshold. It increases the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, while the long-term inflation floor remains at 1.5%. The expected time to reach this is shortened from about 5.7 years to 2.8 years.
According to the proposal model, the nominal staking yield may drop from the current 5.84% to 4.34% in the first year and 2.25% in the third year. Reduced issuance can ease token dilution, but stakers will receive fewer new SOL. Small validators relying on inflation income will face more pressure, with the model estimating about 30 will become unprofitable within three years.
My judgment is simple: tightening the supply schedule has value, but it won't automatically create demand. Transaction fees, application revenue, and validator concentration all need to be observed together going forward. Even after the vote passes, implementation and activation are required; tokens won't suddenly be issued less today.
Data: Solana governance proposals, The Block. Personal record, not investment advice.
$SOL #SolanaInflationReductionProposalPassedBitcoin ETF sees a renewed inflow of $200 million
But what we really need to watch today is the US Treasury
$BTC has been hovering around $78,000 since entering September. There's good news today: after a day of net outflows, the US spot BTC ETF has just turned back to a net inflow of $216.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting about $205.9 million.
However, I think what really needs attention today is no longer the ETF.
Oil prices have surged back above $90, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.78%, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have clearly intensified. BTC's lowest point last night was about $77,200.
So I won't be too aggressive on BTC in the short term.
The positive side is that BTC has already risen 24% in August, and during this high-level consolidation, the open interest in perpetual contracts has actually dropped to the lowest since May, indicating that leverage hasn't been piling up wildly.
If it holds around 77,000 next, I'll keep waiting for it to reclaim 80,000; if it breaks below 77,000, we need to guard against a deeper pullback.
$BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Recently, my AI automated trading system has been running for a while. From the initial 0.17U, to a drawdown in the middle, and then the account to above 15U again, the whole process is much more interesting than I initially imagined. But recently, I suddenly discovered a new problem. When the system has a bug, I want to fix it. When the system is losing money, I want to fix it. But now the system is making money— **I actually want to modify it. ** Hahaha. This might be the most amazing thing about humans when dealing with trading systems. I always feel it could be optimized a bit more. Can I take profits go farther? Can this signal be moved earlier? Can I slightly increase the position? If I add another indicator here, would the win rate be higher? If AI considered one more condition, would it be smarter? As I thought about it, a system that was running normally might end up being sent into the ICU by my own hands. --- One of my biggest problems when trading on my own was that I liked to change my mind on the spot. I had planned it out. But when I saw the market suddenly move: "The situation has changed." Then I made the change. But later I realized that the so-called "situation has changed" is often just my emotions changing. Now that I'm working on AI systems, I realize this habit hasn't disappeared at all. It's just a different form. Previously, I changed orders manually. Now I want to manually change the code. Essentially, it's still: **I always feel that my judgment at this moment is smarter than the rules I set before. **Oil prices surged past $90, U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.77%, yet $BTC still holds between $78,000 and $79,000.
Is this resilience, or is the risk not fully priced in yet?
First, the market has already priced in the hawkish stance of the Fed. As long as upcoming employment data doesn't significantly exceed expectations, old negative factors alone are unlikely to cause the same level of impact again.
Second, simultaneous rises in oil prices and long-term bond yields will intensify inflation concerns. The longer interest rates stay high, the more new capital BTC will need to break through $80,000.
Third, price resilience does not mean a confirmed uptrend. BTC mainly traded between $77,000 and $79,000 overnight; bulls have defended the lower bound, but $80,000 has yet to be effectively broken.
Going forward, I’m watching two signals:
Whether employment data can reduce rate hike expectations, and whether BTC can break out with volume and hold above $80,000.
Holding above $80,000 would indicate the market is willing to overlook macro pressures; falling below $77,000 means we need to watch out for "delayed pricing of negative factors."
Do you think BTC is gearing up for a breakout, or are macro risks still not reflected in the price?
$BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 过去8小时，一条新闻被塞进了“AI军备竞赛”的固定框架里：Anthropic与Lambda签了350亿美元云计算协议，数据中心由比特币矿企Hut 8建设，英伟达持有租约。 大多数解读停在“矿企转型AI算力房东”这句正确的废话上。 但有一个细节，在几乎所有报道里都被当成背景板一笔带过，却恰恰是整件事里最反常的地方： 英伟达，一家卖芯片的公司，为什么要亲自持有一座数据中心的租约？ 这不是“业务延伸”能解释的。卖铲子的人突然开始租地皮，这背后有一个被忽略的赌注：英伟达正在从“卖完就走”的供应商，变成“必须赖在物理层”的算力地主。 而它愿意签下这张租约，恰恰说明——它比任何人都更早意识到，AI时代的真正瓶颈不是芯片，是电力。 把主语换成“那张租约” 换一个主语来看这笔交易。 主语不是Anthropic，不是Hut 8，甚至不是英伟达。主语是那张租约本身。 租约意味着义务。英伟达持有租约，意味着它承诺为这个物理空间持续付费，无论里面装没装满芯片、跑没跑起算力。一家毛利率超过70%的芯片公司，主动背上重资产的物理空间义务，这在半导体行业的历史上几乎找不到先例。 为什么？ 答案藏在一个数字里：Hut🔥 Recently, many friends have privately asked me if we can still see Bitcoin starting with 6 digits?
My answer is: it's difficult, but not impossible; it requires a black swan level catalyst.
If there is really a rate hike in September, BTC retracing to 73,500-75K is highly probable. But to get back to the 60K range, three negative factors need to trigger simultaneously: a systemic correction in the US stock market + accelerated selling by MicroStrategy/miners + large-scale continuous outflows from ETFs.
The 57,800 bottom has triple confirmation from the weekly five-wave structure + 200-week moving average + whale accumulation, so it can't be broken by just a single 25bp rate hike.
The 65K-68K range holds over 1 million BTC in chips; once broken, it will trigger a new chain reaction of sell-offs.
In short: a retracement to 73,500 is highly probable, but Bitcoin starting with 6 digits requires an unexpected shock and is not the baseline scenario. $BTC $ETH $SOL holding at 79,000, ETH weakly following at 2470, ETH/BTC ratio slightly fluctuates but BTC market dominance rises to 59.7%, ETH drops to 11.28% — money flows into hard assets, high beta assets are exposed. SOL and XRP fall along, not following the rise; ZEC flying solo on ETF is a false strength. Strength ranking: BTC > ETH > large-cap altcoins > MEME. The mid-stage of a bull market isn’t about blind gains; it’s about the mainline taking the meat while the edges sip soup. Holding the wrong asset in a bull market still leads to losses. #BTC high-level consolidation, stronger correlation with gold #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 $ARB ARB 0.111, OpenSea re-supports Solana NFT, and ARB instead rose by 28%. In terms of news, OpenSea has no direct connection with Arbitrum, so the rise seems a bit forced, but market sentiment has picked up, and short-term funds are looking for an outlet.
From 0.084 to 0.120, a 40% increase, SAR pushed from 0.073 to 0.087, EMA21=0.094, EMA55=0.091, the price has already risen above all moving averages, J value 91, RSI6=91.96, indeed short-term overbought. But overbought doesn't necessarily mean an immediate drop; entering at this position profits from sentiment, but losses can also be due to sentiment.
OpenSea embracing Solana again has no direct impact on Arbitrum's L2 narrative. This wave is more like sector linkage, treating ARB as a catch-up target for L2. If you chased today, what you need to think clearly about is: when market sentiment fades, how do you plan to handle this position?
Comment below, did you chase this wave or miss out? 🫡From the monthly chart perspective, if BTC undergoes a significant correction, October and November are more likely.
Currently, the single candlestick in August closing bullish has become a fact, and the active trading volume has increased significantly compared to July.
Based on the delta divergence principle we mentioned earlier, this clearly does not apply here, so the probability of a direct correction/drop in September is low; most likely, September will mainly experience high-level consolidation.
If September closes with the candlestick and corresponding delta values shown in the figure below, then a correction at the monthly level in October/November becomes possible.The Nasdaq is currently fluctuating around 30,000, and what really needs caution is that several attempts to break through the 30,000 mark have not been supported by significant incremental funds.
From the trend perspective, the highs continue to move lower, and the price is once again being suppressed by the descending trendline of the rounded top.
The rounded top has not fully formed yet, but the market has already shifted from a one-sided rise to high-level rotation. September is likely to determine the medium-term direction going forward.
The September interest rate decision is not about a rate cut, but whether to raise rates or keep them unchanged.
After Wash's hawkish stance, expectations for a rate hike have clearly intensified.
If employment data is strong, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to rise, putting further pressure on tech stock valuations.
If employment cools moderately and inflation falls in tandem, the Federal Reserve will hold steady, giving the market room to recover. If employment suddenly deteriorates, the rate hike benefits may not support the stock market, and funds might shift to trading recession risks.
Therefore, my baseline judgment for the Nasdaq in September is a weak consolidation.
The main resistance zone is between 29,700 and 30,100 points. Without volume to reclaim this area, any rebound here is more suitable for reducing positions rather than chasing gains.
If it breaks below 29,000 points, the next target is 28,500 points. A daily volume-supported break below 28,500 points would further confirm the rounded top, with downside targets near 28,000 and 27,200 points. Conversely, only by firmly reclaiming 30,100 points will the top risk ease, and the index will have a chance to challenge 30,900 points again.
In September, defense should be the priority, but there is no need to prematurely bet on a crash. The shape resembling a top is not important; a rebound without volume and support breakdowns are the true signals of a bearish turn.NFTs have not disappeared; they just no longer follow the same playstyle as before. On August 31, OpenSea officially resumed Solana NFT trading. Users can now directly buy and sell Solana NFTs on OpenSea, and $SOL has officially joined the 25+ blockchain ecosystems currently supported by OpenSea. It has been more than four years since OpenSea first tested Solana NFTs. 1. The NFT market has shifted from $ETH dominance to multi-chain competition. During the last NFT bull market, the market was almost inseparable from Ethereum. But now, it's completely different. Solana has established its own NFT ecosystem, and other chains also have their own NFT markets. OpenSea reconnecting with Solana essentially adapts to this change. Now, the competition is not just about "who is the biggest NFT platform," but about who can aggregate more assets and liquidity across multiple chains. 2. With OpenSea's return, competition for Solana NFTs will become more intense. Over the past few years, Solana NFT users have been more concentrated on platforms like Magic Eden and Tensor. Now that OpenSea has rejoined, it effectively adds another external traffic entry point. This is certainly good for Solana, but for NFT trading platforms, competition will become more direct: with the same batch of NFTs and users, where the trading happens will ultimately depend on liquidity, experience, and