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$ZEC hit a new high, but I’m not chasing this peak, and the reason lies in the funding rate.
The numbers are clear: reaching 917.54 is the highest since listing, current price 911.09, 24h +12.51%. One year +2091.7%, ninety days +134%, thirty days +79.9%. The gains themselves are indisputable.
The issue is who is pushing it. Contract 24h volume is $1.148 billion, spot only $126 million, a ninefold difference; open interest is $516 million. This peak wasn’t driven by spot buying but built up by leverage, and the leveraged position is also retreating quickly.
More importantly, the funding rate has turned negative at -0.0018%. Perpetual contracts are trading at a discount, not a premium, indicating that there aren’t as many longs chasing at this price as imagined; instead, shorts are entering. We backtested nine sets of negative funding rate samples ourselves, and prices tend to continue falling afterward, not the so-called short squeeze.
In the next 48 hours, I expect a pullback to around 850 first. The observation point is whether spot volume can catch up. Conditions to turn bullish: funding rate returns positive, and spot volume reaches over 30% of contract volume. *$CORE tears apart the biggest paradox in crypto: decentralization vs control 👀*
You hit the nail on the head with this question
*Core contradiction*
If *validators can vote to increase the supply cap*,
then today's 2.1B $CORE could become 21B+ tomorrow
In that case, "fixed supply" becomes an empty phrase.
*Scarcity = can be diluted with just one vote*
*Two camps' views*
*1. Supporters: Flexibility > rigidity*
- Can respond quickly when there's a vulnerability or need for growth
- PoS governance is meant to let the community decide, not be set in stone
- Bitcoin has also changed code before, just never touched the 21M
*2. Opponents: This is centralization*
- Fixed supply only matters if it's "immutable"
- Today you can vote +150M, tomorrow +15B
- How is this different from fiat "printing money"? 😂
- Institutions and retail buy into "code is law," not "rule by humans"
*In summary*
`Variable supply cap = not a scarce asset`
`Variable supply cap = governance token`
$CORE's v1.0.26 burning of 150M is a good thing, but if this "burn + mint" switch remains in validators' hands, the market will keep discounting it
This is also why $BTC's narrative is the strongest. Because no one can vote to change 21M to 42M
Do you think $CORE needs to write the supply cap in the future $BTC and other major cryptocurrencies rose,
while $SNDK, $MU and other storage sector stocks fell.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller said in an event interview at 8:30 PM:
The interest rate decision will "largely depend on" the August inflation data to be released next week,
and rate hikes will only be considered if inflation is too high.
This is a dovish signal released,
and the market subsequently lowered the Fed rate hike probability bet from 63% to 60%.
Major cryptocurrencies surged.
However, the US semiconductor sector plummeted.
Why is that?
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo, in an interview with CNBC, signaled an increase in semiconductor tariffs:
— Chip manufacturers building plants in the US will be exempt from tariffs,
otherwise, exports to the US will be subject to additional tariffs,
with the goal of raising the US domestic chip production share to 40%-50%.
This directly impacts South Korean memory chip giants—Samsung and SK Hynix,
whose core production capacity is in South Korea.
Once tariffs are implemented,
export costs will rise sharply.
This also dragged down Micron, SanDisk, and Qualcomm, all falling sharply.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell to 98.72.
These two American men
have influenced the entire market sentiment tonight.2026 Monthly Nonfarm Payroll Trends: January 160,000 → February -156,000 → March 214,000 → April 148,000 → May 63,000 → June 20,000 → July -23,000.
The trend line steps down month by month, turning negative in July. August is theoretically expected to have a technical rebound (due to the very low base in July), but the rebound strength will be limited — May and June data were revised down by 103,000, indicating previous data was inflated.
Tomorrow's baseline nonfarm scenario (about 50% probability): 30,000–60,000
Reason: ADP weakening continuously + initial jobless claims rising + JOLTS job openings declining, three indicators resonating to point to weak growth. The low base of -23,000 in July will bring a technical rebound, but the rebound magnitude is limited. The highest probability is in the 30,000–60,000 range.
If 30,000–60,000 (baseline): the probability of a rate hike falls from 62% to 48–55%, gold rises slightly, BTC may rebound to around 85,000, but the magnitude is limited, and the market continues to wait for the CPI direction on September 11.The CLARITY Act is expected to heat up, with market benefits and cautious capital forming a game of tug-of-war
Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. SEC, stated in an interview that the CLARITY Act is expected to be implemented this month. This act will clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, establishing clear industry standards for trading platform operations, token issuance, and institutional capital allocation. In the long term, it can effectively reduce regulatory uncertainty in the crypto industry, representing a major benefit at the industry level.
However, despite the positive policy expectations, market capital remains cautious, with short-term large holders choosing to actively reduce risk exposure. Large holder Garrett Jin closed out 276 BTC long positions, pocketing $210,000 in profits, while still maintaining a total position of $123 million, showing a pattern of taking profits while moving forward.
Compared to BTC, the selling pressure signal for ETH is more prominent. An institution transferred 39,500 ETH to multiple exchanges in a single day, equivalent to $95 million, indicating potential selling risk; meanwhile, a ShapeShift whale moved 2,759 ETH to a new address without transferring to exchanges, so there is no immediate direct selling pressure.
The current core market contradiction is clear: regulatory policy expectations continue to improve, but major funds have not entered the market in large scale. The CLARITY Act mainly addresses the long-term institutional framework. Whether $BTC can hold above the 80,000 mark still depends on ETF capital flows, Federal Reserve macro policies, and spot buying strength. Policy can only open the institutional entry channel; only sustained inflows of real capital can turn expected benefits into a lasting upward trend.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 From the market perspective, $BTC's 50-day moving average is approaching a crossover above the 200-day moving average, with a golden cross about to form. USDT's market share is simultaneously weakening, indicating that some funds may be flowing back from stablecoins into crypto assets. Both technical structure and capital flow are signaling bullish tendencies.
The macro outlook is also warming up. Arthur Hayes pointed out that if Japan's GPIF adjusts its asset allocation, it could trigger a new round of liquidity expansion. However, the "money printing spree" is still hypothetical at this stage. The real determinants of BTC's direction remain interest rates, the US dollar, and global financing costs.
Institutional involvement continues to increase. Standard Chartered Bank has extended BTC and ETH spot trading services from the UK to the UAE, making it more convenient and compliant for traditional funds to buy crypto assets. Willy Woo suggested that BTC's cycle might shift from a 4-year cycle to a 6 to 8-year cycle. This does not mean the bull market is over; rather, after ETFs and institutional funds enter, the cycle lengthens and the market no longer revolves solely around halving events.
News is generally positive for the medium to long term but will not directly drive a breakout in the short term. The golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market share may only be a temporary correction in risk appetite. Going forward, sustained net inflows into spot and ETF funds and BTC reclaiming the $80,000 to $83,300 range are needed to confirm the establishment of a new trend.
$BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Rate hikes are a false negative, while rate cuts are the real test: many people have completely misunderstood the macro logic.
The entire internet is nervously awaiting the Federal Reserve's move in September. Many instinctively think "rate hikes will cause a crash, while rate cuts will save the market," but looking at the true historical records, the conclusion is counterintuitive and surprising.
Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve's first rate hike after ending a rate cut cycle usually only triggers a brief pullback within a month, after which the market gradually stabilizes. The average returns three months or even a year after a rate hike often outperform the long-term average.
Many people don't understand this logic because they treat the direction of interest rates as the sole switch for market trends.
The reason the Federal Reserve dares to hike rates again is fundamentally that the economy is resilient enough and corporate profits are still expanding. Such rate hikes merely tighten valuation's superficial heat and do not break through the foundation of the real economy. On the contrary, the first rate cut that many eagerly await often comes as an emergency rescue forced by economic slowdown or crisis. When corporate profits collapse, that slight liquidity easing cannot hold back the downward pull of recession.
For traders in the market, the most fatal losses often do not come from rate hikes but from blind labeling thinking. Panicking and selling before a rate hike lands, or rushing to lever up and bottom-fish at the start of a recession and rate cut, usually results in heavy losses.
Understanding this pattern, when facing the upcoming decision-making battle, are you frozen in fear by rate hike expectations, or calmly positioning yourself after seeing through the illusion?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The peculiarity of the August non-farm payrolls lies in the coexistence of cooling employment and rebounding inflation.
The market's pricing of the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 60%-66%, which means that regardless of whether the non-farm data is stronger or weaker, it may trigger a "reverse" market reaction — no longer simply "bad news is good news."
Impact on U.S. stocks
JPMorgan's market intelligence team believes that the S&P 500 is more likely to weaken after the non-farm payrolls release.
Scenario 1: Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations (increase of over 100,000)
Employment resilience combined with high inflation will further raise expectations for a September rate hike.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields will pressure overvalued tech stocks, with the Nasdaq being more sensitive than the Dow.
The logic is "good news is bad news" — strong employment means more consumption and inflation pressure, which drags down the stock market.
Scenario 2: Non-farm payrolls meet expectations (increase of 50,000-60,000)
This is the "mild cooling" the market most hopes to see.
Employment is still expanding but at a very slow pace, insufficient alone to determine September's policy direction; the Federal Reserve still needs to wait for the CPI data on September 11. U.S. stocks may remain volatile with unclear direction.
Scenario 3: Non-farm payrolls show negative growth again or near zero growth
The market will not simply interpret this as positive.
If employment weakens rapidly combined with high inflation, stagflation logic will be triggered — weak data becomes a new source of risk.
The market may shift focus from "whether the Fed can pause rate hikes" to "whether the U.S. economy is accelerating its downturn," increasing recession trades and putting pressure on U.S. stocks. $SNDK $NVDA The 50-day moving average of $BTC is approaching a crossover above the 200-day moving average, signaling an imminent golden cross pattern. Meanwhile, the market share of USDT is weakening simultaneously, indicating that some funds may be flowing back from stablecoins into crypto assets. Both technical and capital aspects are beginning to release bullish signals.
Macro expectations have also warmed up. Arthur Hayes stated on X that Japan's GPIF adjusting its asset allocation could bring a new round of liquidity expansion. However, the "money printing spree" is still just speculation at this point. The real factors affecting BTC's trend remain interest rates, the US dollar, and global funding costs.
Institutional entry continues. Standard Chartered Bank has expanded BTC and ETH spot trading services from the UK to the UAE, meaning traditional capital channels for buying crypto assets have become more convenient and compliant. Analyst Willy Woo believes BTC may shift from a 4-year cycle to a 6-8 year cycle. This does not mean the bull market is gone; rather, with ETFs and institutional funds entering, the market may be extended longer, and the rhythm of price movements will no longer revolve solely around halving events.
Overall, the news leans toward medium- to long-term improvement, but BTC will not break out immediately. The golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market share may also be just a short-term risk appetite rebound. Only with continuous inflows of spot and ETF funds, and BTC firmly standing in the $80,000 to $83,300 range, can a new upward trend be truly confirmed.
$BTC $ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 ISM suddenly surged to 55.4: What BTC really fears is not a strong economy, but "growth not weak, inflation not falling"
The ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, exceeding expectations and hitting a multi-month high; more importantly, new orders jumped directly to 60.9, the highest since 2023, indicating that U.S. demand remains resilient.
But there is a contradiction hidden in the data:
Employment sub-index is only 47.8, while input prices are as high as 72.6.
In other words, companies are cooling down on hiring, but demand and price pressures remain firm.
This is the hardest for the Federal Reserve to handle because it neither gives a reason to "stop because employment collapsed" nor signals that "inflation is already safe."
The market currently still assigns about a 64% probability of a rate hike in September, with the real judge left to Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
If nonfarm payrolls are strong and wages are strong, BTC's 77,000–80,000 pressure zone may continue to be under pressure; conversely, if employment clearly slows down, the rate hike trade may quickly cool off.
ISM gave no direction but raised the importance of Friday's nonfarm payrolls to a higher level. The most dangerous thing now is not bad data, but data continuing to be "not bad enough." $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC Bitcoin has risen to $80,900, very close to the $82.8K resistance zone — the May peak and also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci zone. Reuters reports that BTC has just experienced a rally of about 30%, while surpassing the 21, 55, 100, and 200-day MAs, indicating that the bullish structure is marked. It's worth noting that the momentum doesn't just come from crypto: Treasury yields cooled, the USD weakened, and expectations of a Fed rate hike fell to around 50% after Waller's dovish speech. Current data shows that there is a high probability that BTC will continue to head towards the $82.8K area. Always saying Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme? Come on, don't talk nonsense. A Ponzi scheme relies on centralized manipulation, promised returns, and newcomers paying off earlier investors; when funds dry up, it collapses. BTC has no operator backing it, no customer service groups, no dynamic yield model; its supply rules are hardcoded in the protocol, the ledger and code are verifiable, transfers depend on market consensus and key control, and profits or losses are borne by the user. Comparing it to a pyramid scheme is indeed a conceptual mix-up.
Of course, this doesn't mean there are no risks. Volatility, regulation, on-chain security, custody errors, and leveraged liquidations all truly exist. Many people criticize BTC, but what they really criticize are high-leverage contracts, shady platforms, and zero tolerance for drawdowns—not the underlying asset itself. Holding spot long-term and speculative trading are completely different approaches.
Now it resembles a global liquidity-sensitive hybrid of risk asset and digital scarce commodity. After institutions enter through channels like ETFs, macro interest rates and the dollar cycle will have a more pronounced impact. You can be bearish or think its valuation is purely consensus-based, but calling it a “Ponzi” is too crude. Understanding its mechanism before judging is more useful than emotional labeling. $BTC
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Reviewing last night's phenomenal meme on Robinhood — code $JINQIAN, named Money Mushroom. In one hour, it skyrocketed from zero to a market cap of 70 million USD; "to the moon" was the ultimate dream for all the bros, beyond any description. Then the crash came, burying countless bag holders. I lost 60% and cut my losses to exit. Was this a great scam or a great manipulation? My answer: a great manipulation. Countless bros who got rekt, including myself, were willing sacrifices blinded by greed. --- 1. Background: An explosively sexy script The whole thing started on August 31 when crypto trader Rune revealed on Twitter that he spent about 1.8 million USD OTC to buy 37.4% of a small-cap Nasdaq company — "market cap 4.8 million, stock price $0.12, short interest 92.3%." He claimed he would tokenize this stock on the Robinhood Chain + issue paired meme coins, using on-chain funds to buy the underlying stock to squeeze shorts. Veterans from the GameStop battle would be instantly hooked by this script. --- 2. Timeline: From skyrocketing to a dismal exit - 9/2 5:34 AM: Someone deployed $FAMI on the Robinhood ChainMarket Brief: Case Review of Short Squeeze in Early Morning
Market Overview
Traders simultaneously opened short positions on ETH and BTC, entering ETH at 2375 and BTC at 77005. In the early morning, a sudden surge with increased volume triggered stop losses, resulting in a total loss of over 2400 U. The market broke above the 2400 whole number level and the upper Bollinger Band, causing a large number of shorts to be stopped out in a cascade.
The KDJ-J technical indicator surged to 108, entering the overbought zone. The view is that if the 2420 resistance cannot be effectively broken, there is a possibility of a wick down, making it unsuitable to chase higher.
Market Logic
Liquidity in the crypto market is low in the early morning, allowing small funds to create large spikes easily, which can quickly trigger a batch of well-placed stop losses. This looks like a "precise sniper shot" but is essentially chip harvesting under low liquidity.
Subjective judgment like "the price is high, it should fall" leads to opening shorts without leaving enough room for upward error. In a choppy market, guessing the top and shorting can easily lead to short-term squeezes.
Even if indicators enter overbought territory, it does not mean an immediate pullback. Overbought conditions can persist for some time, so one should not rely solely on a single technical indicator to confirm a reversal.
Trading Insights
1. During low liquidity periods in the early morning, leverage position risks are amplified. When placing stop losses, consider spike disturbances and avoid setting stops near whole number levels.
2. Do not short simply based on a "price feels expensive" intuition; in a choppy market, overvaluation can continue to push higher.
3. Overbought only indicates high heat, not an immediate drop. Indicators should be used as an aid, not the sole basis for entry. Let's string together several pieces of news at this stage.
Initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, igniting bullish sentiment; U.S. stock indices opened moderately higher, boosting risk appetite again; the early morning speech by the Fed Chair gave us a leading positive signal, but remember, all these are preliminary minor events.
The market's real heavyweight event remains the non-farm payroll data.
Currently, capital won't recklessly bet heavily on any direction; tonight is more about short-term speculation. Minor news causes short-term fluctuations but won't rewrite the long-term cycle pattern. $BTC The Solana Foundation has recently been playing a rather counterintuitive game: desperately making cryptocurrency disappear from users' sight.
They put up billboards in San Francisco that say "Don't waste time on cryptocurrency." At first glance, it seems like self-mockery, but in fact, they are promoting the x402 micropayment system — allowing AI agents to quietly complete payments in the background, with users completely unaware of the blockchain's existence. Simply put, when the technology is in place, the best state is that you don't feel it at all. Currently, AI-driven transactions on the Solana network have exceeded 15 million, and the "agent payment" line is clearly the Foundation's next major focus.
Development hasn't been idle either. The Colosseum hackathon attracted thousands of participants from 95 countries worldwide, and developer bootcamps in the Chinese-speaking region are continuously producing talent.
Actually, it makes a lot of sense. For so many years, the industry has been teaching users to remember private keys, pay Gas fees, and perform cross-chain transfers, with barriers so high that many ordinary people were discouraged. Now, $SOL's approach is reversed: instead of making users adapt to the chain, the chain adapts to users, hiding all the complexity in the background. You just click once, and the AI agent runs everything on-chain for you.
A public chain no longer emphasizes how fast or cheap it is every day, but quietly makes the infrastructure "invisible" — this might be the real signal that large-scale adoption is about to begin. After all, no one cares which pipe the water comes from; they just want water when they turn on the tap. The rise tonight essentially reflects funds preemptively speculating on weaker non-farm payrolls, which is an advance play on expectations; once the data is released, it's easier for the positive sentiment to be realized.
Non-farm payrolls cause many instantaneous spikes and jitters, often first surging then plunging, with false signals to lure buyers or sellers. Do not chase orders immediately after sudden price changes; it's best to wait 15–30 minutes for the trend to stabilize before making judgments.
Altcoins fluctuate much more than BTC, and the market direction entirely depends on changes in U.S. Treasury yields.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The Beige Book confirms moderate growth, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the US respond with a strong rally
In the early hours today, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions showed that US economic activity has maintained "moderate growth" since July, the labor market has slightly cooled but remains overall stable, and inflationary pressures are gradually easing. This report provides the market with expectations of a soft economic landing, alleviating concerns about aggressive rate hikes.
Tonight, the US will release initial jobless claims for the week of August 29 and the July trade balance. The market expects claims to remain low, but the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data far exceeded expectations, reaching a new high since February. Fed Governor Waller commented on the inflation outlook, emphasizing that the next rate decision will heavily depend on next week's CPI data, and the probability of a rate hike in September remains uncertain.
Boosted by the Beige Book's moderate tone, after the US stock market opened today, the three major tech indices collectively rose, and cryptocurrencies rebounded simultaneously. Bitcoin $BTC returned above $80,462, with a 24-hour increase of over 4%; Ethereum $ETH rose to $2,484, up about 3.4%.
The market logic is clear: economic data shows no severe recession, inflationary pressures are easing, monetary policy expectations are stabilizing, and risk assets receive short-term support. However, tomorrow night's nonfarm payroll report is the real indicator. If new jobs exceed the expected 58,000, the current rebound may face reversal. Investors need to closely watch tonight's jobless claims data to capture more clues. Amid the long and short game, cautious optimism remains the main tone.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Against the macro backdrop of the US August ISM Services PMI exceeding expectations (55.4) and a sharp weakening in ADP employment data (only 38,000), the current market is caught in a tug-of-war between "economic resilience" and "rate hike expectations".
$BTC at $77,500-78,000. Strong ISM services data benefits the dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing policy shift expectations driven solely by weak employment. The $83,000-86,000 range has a large supply from long-term holders, forming strong resistance. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between $76,000 and $79,000, awaiting guidance from Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
$ETH at $2,390-2,435. Underperforming Bitcoin, with $2,400 forming both psychological and technical resistance. However, its price remains above major moving averages, and spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 12 consecutive days. If Friday's nonfarm payrolls disappoint and dampen rate hike bets, ETH may rebound first.
$SOL at $100.30. Recently relatively strong, rising 1.3% against the trend over the past week and about 2.1% in the last 24 hours. The $98-100 range forms short-term support, with an upward target of $117.
$SNDK, as a tokenized stock, has experienced extreme volatility recently, dropping 7.5% in 24 hours and briefly falling below $1,000 (currently about $1,023), while a contract version is quoted around $1,595. Its movement largely reflects sentiment in the underlying US stock and derivatives markets, significantly influenced by macro interest rates, with high volatility posing substantial risk.This wave is not a "confirmed reversal," but a combination of a short squeeze tail wave and a macro trigger. BTC has been pulled from around 64,000 to nearly 80,000, and ETH has also touched above 2,400, but since late August, high-level support has clearly weakened, and long positions on contracts have been concentratedly liquidated, indicating that chasing funds are being taught a lesson. The real driver is not continuous spot accumulation, but the decline in long-term US Treasury yields, policy expectations, and buying from forced liquidations of previously crowded short positions; ETF inflows are more like a relay, not the initial ignition.
From a technical perspective, the daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, on-chain and large addresses are moving assets to exchanges, and short-term profit-taking and early trapped positions are watching for exits. Now is not the time to blindly be bearish, but also not to mistake a pulse for a trend. A more reasonable approach is to wait for two confirmations: either a pullback with reduced volume and a stop in decline near BTC 74,000-76,000 and ETH 2,300-2,350, with light long positions and strict stop-loss; or a solid breakout above BTC 80,000 and ETH 2,500 with significantly increased volume, then follow the right side. A sharp rally without a pullback directly charging higher has a higher probability of being a false breakout. Waiting for a pullback is usually a few points cheaper than chasing the wick. B+ETH.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 ADP employment increase of 38,000 far below expectations, yet the probability of a rate hike stubbornly clings to 62% — I stared at these two sets of numbers and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: the current market state is exactly the most delicate moment of "elastic defense" as described by Manstein — the opponent has already retreated, but no one knows if he is running away or waiting for you to charge in and get slaughtered. 📊 First, look at the table: Nonfarm payrolls are the "appetizer," CPI is the "main course" Beijing time September 4th, 20:30, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. The market generally expects an increase of 55,000-58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.1%. July nonfarm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, and June was revised down from 57,000 to 20,000. Wednesday's "small nonfarm" ADP data showed an increase of 38,000 private jobs in August, below the expected 48,000, marking a 7-month low. But the real twist is: despite such weak employment data, rate hike expectations have not dropped. CME FedWatch shows the market still prices a 62%-66% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September. Bank of America put it more bluntly — "Nonfarm payrolls are unlikely to be the decisive factor for a September rate hike; CPI is the main course." Wash has already described the labor market as "in good shape," emphasizing that inflation is the real focus. Employment down, rates not falling — this is a typical stagflation combination. JPMorgan even warned: whether employment data strengthens or weakens, US stocks may come under pressure — better-than-expected data pushes bond yields higher, while a clear weakening reignites stagflation concerns. B$BTC Tomorrow night at 20:30, the 90 minutes that will decide BTC's fate in September. July's non-farm payrolls were already negative. Tomorrow night's data is even more critical than the FOMC. Bitcoin has been stuck around 78,000 for a week, and the data will be released at 20:30 tomorrow night. On Wednesday, the just-released ADP small non-farm payrolls showed the private sector only added 38,000 jobs, below the expected 47,000, the worst since January this year. The job market is truly cooling down, not an illusion; but on the other hand, after the hawkish tone at Jackson Hole by Waller, the probability of a September rate hike has surged from 36% to 64%. Brent crude oil is above $94, the Strait of Hormuz has daily news, and PCE inflation remains at 3.7%. New York Fed President Williams also changed his tone on Wednesday, from "rate levels are appropriate" to "no clear answer on whether further action is needed." The Fed is now stuck in a very awkward position: employment is cooling, inflation is not. If tomorrow's data is strong—an increase of over 100,000 jobs and no rise in unemployment—the rate hike expectation will be locked in, the dollar and US Treasury yields will both rise, and BTC as a risk asset will be sold off first, with 76,200 support breaking down to 75,000. If the data is weak (another cold surprise, below 40,000, or unemployment rises): September rate hikes are basically off the table, risk appetite will instantly reverse, BTC will surge to 79,300, and if broken, look to 82,000. #FOMC last set of data before Friday's non-farm payrolls
Don't bet one-sided before the data; volatility will first consume liquidity. Position size and stop-loss are more important than direction.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's non-farm payrolls The three major AI $OPENAI $ANTHROPIC $SPCX are all currently experiencing failures!
Three hypotheses:
Public cloud underlying infrastructure failure (highest probability)
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Grok all heavily rely on overseas public clouds (AWS, Azure, etc.). If the underlying cloud gateways, networks, or storage clusters have issues, multiple AI services on top will simultaneously report failures. Each company can only issue their own announcements and will not make a unified public statement 36Kr.
Global network / CDN, DNS link issues
It's not the model itself crashing, but a widespread anomaly in user access paths, manifested as webpage errors and call timeouts, while the model core is still running.
Exclusions: not a coordinated hacker attack, not collective model malfunction
Currently, no security agencies have disclosed any attack evidence. All three official statements mention failures, investigations, and repairs, with no security incident alerts.
Previously, multiple AI services went down simultaneously due to upstream cloud infrastructure issues causing a chain reaction.
Claude (Anthropic) heavily relies on AWS Amazon Cloud $AMZN
OpenAI/ChatGPT heavily relies on Azure Microsoft Cloud $MSFT
Grok (xAI) uses both AWS + GCP Google Cloud computing power $GOOGL
#Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 As soon as the shout came out, stock and crypto investors collectively "thank President Trump" 🤣
Breaking news flooding the screen: Trump publicly stated—believe it or not, the stock market will rise.
This phrase has become a meme in the investment community, with many stock and crypto players jokingly imitating it by "thanking President Trump," imagining that once the news breaks, the market will shoot straight up, blindly rushing in to go long, with the entire market turning red hot.
Jokes aside, the real market won't take off in a straight line just because of a verbal shout.
The current macro situation is not easy: August ISM Services PMI exceeded expectations, proving that the US service sector remains resilient; but ADP employment data weakened significantly, showing conflicting economic signals. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains high, gold and BTC fluctuate repeatedly, and everyone is holding their breath waiting for this Friday's nonfarm payroll report.
Politicians' remarks can only stir short-term market sentiment, causing a few minutes of pulse trading, but they cannot change the underlying fundamentals like liquidity, inflation, and employment. Verbal encouragement can ignite temporary bullish enthusiasm, but without fundamental support and capital relay, a straight-line surge is just a pleasant fantasy.
Many people are easily stirred by news, impulsively going all in on optimistic statements. Real trading cannot rely on jokes and shouts for decisions. It's enough to enjoy the news for fun; trading still requires watching data, market signals, and prioritizing position risk control.
Don't fantasize that a single sentence can make the market soar; the real determinants of price movements are always hard macro data.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Oil prices have surged again, WTI hitting 93, Brent at 97, and the Middle East is unstable once more.
Normally, rising oil prices would raise inflation expectations, pushing government bond yields higher, which should be unfavorable for risk assets.
But Bitcoin and gold completely ignored this today; BTC is still hovering above 77000, and gold remains steady above 4400.
This is interesting—either the market thinks this oil price surge won’t last long, or the risk-off logic is outweighing inflation concerns.
Anyway, for now, oil prices rise as they may, but they each go their own way.
$BTC $XAU $CL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Everyone, gold ETFs have started buying again. The SPDR Gold ETF increased holdings by 9.984 tons in a single day, bringing the total holdings back to 1056.62 tons, showing that capital is indeed flowing back.
The Dutch central bank made an interesting move, transferring 86 tons of gold reserves from New York and Ottawa to London between March and August. This is not about buying gold, but optimizing reserve locations—moving gold from North America closer to the European market in London, which offers better liquidity in times of crisis. The central bank is optimizing gold's tradability rather than hoarding it.
Goldman Sachs pointed out the hedging behavior of gold options market makers, noting that market makers may amplify buying during price rises and exacerbate drawdowns during declines. The current volatility in gold is also related to options market hedging.
Whether ETF capital inflows and central bank reserve management can continue to support gold allocation demand, and whether options hedging will amplify two-way volatility, are key points to watch going forward. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $XAU $BTC $CP Tomorrow night at 20:30, the US August non-farm payroll data will be released. What deserves more attention this time is not the number of new jobs added, but the magnitude of the revision to previous values. Previously, July employment decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000, indicating that the original statistics overestimated job growth. If the new jobs added this time turn positive, the headline data may appear strong, but if the previous two months are revised down again, the overall employment trend may not have truly improved. Judging only by the headline numbers can lead to misinterpretation of market trading logic.
$BTC $ETH
For BTC, this result does not constitute a direct positive. Cooling employment may ease rate hike expectations, but if the market interprets it as a sign of economic weakness, funds may prioritize selling risk assets. The focus should be on the sustainability of the improvement in new jobs and whether wage growth is also slowing down. Judging whether there will be a rate hike in September based solely on a single non-farm data point is insufficient.
It should also be noted that this is the last non-farm payroll report before the FOMC meeting, but CPI data will still be released on September 11. Even if the directional judgment this time is correct, it is not advisable to hold positions without protection.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Guys, why is $BTC pulling today?
On the surface, Bitcoin is just holding steady near $77,000, with the 7-day moving average closing at 77,336. But the real highlight of this rebound lies in how it absorbs the macro-level "stress test."
1. Pressure resistance test under adverse wind
At this moment, traditional markets are not calm: Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen above 3%, reaching a new high since 1996; US Treasury yields have surged simultaneously, with Brent crude briefly surpassing $95. Against the backdrop of a "crash" rally in the bond market, BTC's ability to hold the key support at $76,600 and rebound is already strong.
2. Institutional funds quietly stepping in
Where does the support come from? In August, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.5 billion, a 13-month high, signaling a return of Wall Street buying. Meanwhile, Strategy spent $370 million last week to increase its holdings by 4,603 BTC, marking the first resumption of buying since June, marking a significant milestone.
3. The crossroads of bullish and bearish games
Currently, prices are approaching the $80,000–$82,500 resistance zone, and a real breakout will require continued spot buying. Friday's nonfarm payroll data will be the next key point—if the data is hot and strengthens rate rate hike hopes, support levels may come under pressure again.
#FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday is non-farm
#财报观察员: Broadcom's performance beats expectations, Snowflake raises its guidance
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低, oil prices soared Dell raised its FY AI server outlook, signaling infrastructure demand. Broadcom beat Q3 revenue and earnings estimates as AI chip revenue hit $16.7B, but Q4 guidance came in slightly light; shares fell over 6% after hours before paring losses. Snowflake's Q2 product revenue grew 37%, CoCo reached 9,100 accounts, and higher FY revenue and margin guidance sent shares up over 21%. AI demand is spreading from chips and networking to data cloud and software, but markets expect faster execution.#AVGOD这轮上涨不是"反转确认"，而是逼空尾浪叠加宏观触发器的结果。BTC从6.4万拉升至7.95万（8/21高点），ETH冲上2400+，但8/23已现高位回落，24小时内多单爆仓占比达80%（全网清算8.8亿）——说明追涨盘正被反手清洗。
驱动因素拆解：美债长端收益率回落+白宫峰会预期+6月硬扛空单集中强平（空单清算超30亿）=空转多的强制平仓堆量，并非现货资金持续建仓。ETF两日净流入11亿是"接力"，不是"点火"。
可以入场，但只认两种信号：
• 回踩确认：BTC回落至7.4–7.6万、ETH回落至2300–2350，缩量止跌后轻仓低多，止损设在下方1.5%；
• 或放量突破：实体K线站稳BTC 8万、ETH 2500，且成交量达到前5日均量的1.5倍以上，才可跟右侧趋势。
日线RSI已达82，超买明显；巨鲸3天内转入交易所7700枚BTC；此时追高阳线，等于是给6.4万被套割肉的人发"反向下车票"。急涨不回踩就直接冲进去，大概率是假突破；等回踩再进场，比追影线成本便宜5%–8%。评级：B+（ETH）。
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC CoreDAO official announcement: v1.0.26 hard fork goes live, burning 150 million excess CORE🔥
1. ✅The v1.0.26 hard fork has officially launched on mainnet, and the node reward distribution vulnerability has been fixed.
2. 🔥 Directly burn over 150 million CORE overissued tokens and permanently remove them from the total circulating supply, with no rollback of any on-chain transactions. Ordinary users have no loss of principal or staked assets.
3. ⏱ Staking rewards are expected to resume normal distribution within 48 hours.
4. 📋 The complete accident review report will be released later.
🧠 In-depth analysis of the event
On the positive side
1. The most crucial suspense realized: The overissued 150 million CORE was burned directly, eliminating the biggest risk of token dilution without needing to be reclaimed by nodes, thus addressing the community's biggest concern.
2. No rollback transactions, protecting all on-chain assets of ordinary users, not damaging on-chain history, and restoring the credibility of the BTCFi public chain.
3. Once the vulnerability patch is completed, staking rewards will quickly resume, and ecosystem DApps and validator nodes can return to normal operation.
Risks still need to be watched for
1. Exchange deposit maintenance is still delayed, expected to resume at 11:00 AM on September 4. The exchange also needs to adapt to the new version hard fork. After the channel reopens, off-exchange staked tokens can be transferred to the exchange, and the market will still carry the risk of spike volatility.
2. Although the vulnerability has been fixed, the full incident report has not yet been released: details on how the vulnerability was created and which validator nodes received excess rewards—details are yet to be disclosed.
3. Positive news is likely to result in "buying expectations, selling facts." Previously, foreign websites frantically gambled negative news and set a scenario to push the price to 0.2. After the announcement was made, beware of selling pressure from positive news being realized.
Market analysis
- Optimistic scenario: News of burning 150 million tokens boosts community confidence; after deposit opens, bottom-fishing funds enter the market, ushering in a rebound in sentiment.
- Neutral scenario: Some positive news has already been priced in early, and after the news is released, the market will fluctuate and digest, waiting for the overall nonfarm payroll rally to be driven.
- Risk scenario: A large amount of staked unlocked tokens is transferred to the exchange, resulting in short-term profits and sell-offs.
The direct destruction of 150 million excess tokens is the best outcome for this event, but it does not mean a sudden surge will occur; it still requires consideration of market funds and real on-chain activity.The non-farm payrolls will be announced tomorrow night at 8:30 PM. Don’t just focus on how many new jobs were added; what really matters this time is how the previous values are revised. In the last report, July employment was down by 23,000, and May and June were collectively revised down by 103,000, meaning that the jobs previously thought to have been added actually weren’t that many. If this time the new jobs figure turns positive, it may look strong at first glance, but if the previous two months are again significantly revised down, the overall employment trend might not actually be good. Just looking at the first line of the quick report can easily lead to misunderstanding what the market is really trading.
For BTC, this isn’t necessarily a direct positive. Cooling employment could indeed lower rate hike expectations, but if the market starts worrying about the economy itself, funds might sell crypto first to hedge risk. So the key is to see whether the improvement in new jobs can withstand the revisions and whether wage growth is also cooling. It’s too hasty to decide on a September rate hike based on a single non-farm number.
Also, a reminder: this is the last non-farm report before the rate decision, but not the last key data point; CPI will be released on September 11. Even if you get the direction right tomorrow night, don’t rush to blindly hold your position.
$BTC $ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Polymarket拟融资10亿美元，估值210亿美元 #Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices soar
US military escort reached a wartime high, yet Saudi exports still hit a 9-year low. Data speaks louder than missiles.
▪️ Saudi exports in August were about 3 million barrels/day, the lowest since records began in 2017; pre-war February was still 7.3 million
▪️ Alternative route at Yanbu port: June 4.3 million → August 2.25 million, sealed off by Houthis, cutting off this Red Sea lifeline
▪️ Strait of Hormuz actually opened: US military escorted 40 merchant ships through on 9/1, throughput hit a wartime high
▪️ Russia-Ukraine strike: Russian diesel export ban extended to end of September; Besent mentioned living costs, first blaming Ukraine for bombing energy facilities, then Iran
The bottleneck is not at Hormuz, but in the Red Sea. Hormuz can pass with US military escort, but the Red Sea is watched by Houthi forces; Saudi Arabia can't bypass it even by detouring, both routes are cut off. Buyers are starting to hesitate sending ships into the Red Sea; Saudi is considering rerouting around Africa, adding thousands of miles to the voyage, requiring a full reassessment of freight and delivery times. OPEC+ is expected to maintain quotas at the weekend meeting, no one is increasing supply to rescue the market.
Brent crude is strong above 95, a pullback to 92-93 without breaking is a good window to go long, don't chase highs, geopolitical volatility causes frequent spikes. The bearish case only holds when there are signals of easing tensions.
Will normalized escorting suppress oil prices, or will prices remain high as long as the Red Sea remains closed day by day?Brothers, this wave is too strong. Just now BTC surged from around 77,000 all the way above 80,000. The most direct catalyst for this wave is still the Federal Reserve.
Tonight, Waller's speech was clearly dovish, and the market's expectations for a September rate hike quickly cooled down. US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets broadly rebounded, so BTC naturally surged first.
Additionally, US employment data has been weak these past two days, and the market started to reprice the logic that "there's no need to stay so hawkish." Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows again, with funds supporting the spot side.
Finally, there's a short squeeze. After BTC broke through 79,000 and 80,000, the previously accumulated short positions began to be liquidated en masse, pushing the price further up.
Federal Reserve expectations turning dovish + weak employment data + ETF capital inflows + short squeeze.
Now the key is to see if it can truly hold around 81,000. If it can't hold, this wave might still just be a strong short squeeze rebound.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days
First, the viewpoint:
Rate cuts can suppress short-term rates, but they can't contain US debt and inflation. If the 30-year Treasury yield can't hold below 5%, BTC will struggle to enter a truly major rally.
The market is betting on rate cuts, but long-term Treasuries are voting with real money: long-term capital doesn't believe the US can easily solve its fiscal deficit.
With increasing national debt and inflation risks returning, investors will demand higher yields.
This is not ordinary interest rate volatility; US fiscal credit is being repriced.
For BTC, the logic is straightforward:
High long-term yields mean high capital costs, making risk assets suffer.
Only when CPI cools down and rate cut expectations rise, causing yields to fall, will BTC have room to rebound.
But as long as the 30-year Treasury yield stubbornly stays above 5%, the so-called rate cut benefits may just be short-term sentiment.
Don't just focus on whether the Fed will cut rates next time.
What truly determines $BTC's ceiling is when the 30-year Treasury yield genuinely falls.
Rate cuts are a short-term story,
Debt is the long-term bomb the US can't avoid.#OKX Million Planner This plan breaks away from the conventional “buy coins and wait for a rise” approach, adopting a hedge fund dimension of **“Liquidity Black Hole and Free Lottery (Zero-Cost Gamma)”** architecture: using market maker thinking to convert market volatility into cash flow, using the market’s free money to bet on one-sided explosive moves.
Market Analysis
* Viewpoint: High-level “Liquidity Juicer” — shrinking volume with a slow decline to shake out, followed by pulse-style short squeeze.
* Reasoning: $80,000 is the retail investor psychological defense line; the whales won’t allow a comfortable direct breakout, most likely using extremely torturous “narrow range sideways + sudden deep spike” to wash out weak hands, then a single-day volume breakout.
* Oscillation Center: $76,000 - $89,000.
1 Million U “Zero-Cost Lottery” Allocation
* Gravity Mothership: Futures-Spot Arbitrage and Wealth Management Pool (50% / 500,000 U)
Split funds in half: 250,000 to buy BTC spot, 250,000 to open an equal 1x short position on OKX perpetual contracts, paying the expensive one-sided positive funding rate (annualized normal 15%-30%); or directly deposit into a unified account to earn interest. This 500,000 U is completely immune to BTC price fluctuations, serving as the system’s “infinite money printer.”
* Predator Grid: Inverse/Coin-Margined Contract Grid (20% / 200,000 U)
No spot grid trading. Use 200,000 U to build a 2x coin-margined grid with BTC as margin ($74,000 - $92,000). In a ranging market, the grid not only earns spread U but also automatically accumulates more “zero-cost” BTC fragments during each spike and pullback.
* Low-Position Ambush: Suicide High-Discount Dual Currency (15% / 150,000 U)
Weekly rolling orders for “deep out-of-the-money bottom-fishing dual currency wins” (strike price locked at $73,000 - $75,000). If it doesn’t drop, you get an annualized 20%+ subsidy added to the mothership pool for free; if a crash breaks through, it completes a large cheap position build in the strongest support zone.
* Free Lottery: Whale Explosion Calendar Spread (5% / 50,000 U)
All funds are paid by interest from the arbitrage mothership pool (zero principal risk). Sell the current week’s $86,000 Call (collect rent), buy next month’s $95,000 Call (bet on explosion). If the market oscillates mildly, the premium is pure profit; if a sudden one-sided violent surge occurs, the deep out-of-the-money long-term options show a 20-50x “nonlinear explosion.”
* Special Operations: Flash Crash Trigger (10% / 100,000 U)
Always place an order at current price -12% (around $70,500), only triggered by extreme shadows caused by liquidations. Usually idle in a flexible account, no action without a trigger.
Execution and Risk Control Loop
* Entry Rhythm: Deploy 50% immune arbitrage and 20% grid on day one, immediately start “printing money,” refuse to wait for timing.
* Core Power Add-on: As long as OKX funding rate stays above 0.03%/8h, reinvest all earned interest every Monday into next month’s $90,000 strike out-of-the-money call options, achieving “all profits buy lottery tickets.”
* Profit Taking and Exit: When BTC hits above $88,000 and option implied volatility (IV) surges above 80%, exercise and close the option lottery, close futures-spot arbitrage, convert entire position to U to lock in the win.
* Black Swan Defense: If daily closes fall below $73,000 for two consecutive days, shut down coin-margined grid; close spot and short positions in arbitrage mothership pool simultaneously. Due to futures-spot hedge protection, the overall 1 million U portfolio’s net value drawdown does not exceed 3% during crashes.Recently, everyone has been waiting for BTC's "Golden Cross."
Sounds impressive.
The 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average is a classic bullish signal.
But the problem with the Golden Cross is that it's—slow.
By the time it officially confirms, the market may have already moved quite a bit.
So this time, I'm more focused on USDT.
If USDT's market dominance starts to decline steadily, it means stablecoins are losing their share in the overall crypto market, and funds might be moving from the "parking lot" back into BTC and other risk assets.
This is way more interesting than a moving average crossover.
After all, candlesticks can be drawn.
But what really determines whether the market can continue is money.
The Golden Cross tells the story.
USDT tells you whether there's money behind the story.
$BTC $USDT The "golden cross" for BTC is getting closer.
The 50-day moving average is about to cross above the 200-day moving average, which is usually considered a long-term bullish signal by the market.
Historically, there have been some good performances, but out of 12 golden crosses, only 3 have actually remained effective for a year.
So I actually think we shouldn't be too superstitious about this line.
Moving averages themselves are lagging indicators; by the time the golden cross truly appears, the market has often already moved a fair distance.
What might be more worth watching this time is USDT.
If USDT's market share continues to weaken, it means funds are flowing back from stablecoins into risk assets like BTC, and this signal is closer to indicating whether money is actually moving.
Technical patterns tell you what the market looks like.
Changes in stablecoins are more like telling you where the money is about to go.
$BTC $USDT Is the Netherlands no longer waiting for the Federal Reserve?
The Dutch central bank just sold 59 tons of gold from the New York vault, then turned around and bought back 59 tons in London.
So what is it up to? The answer is two words: liquidity.
The Dutch central bank now holds a total of 612.4 tons of gold; this time it’s neither reducing nor increasing its holdings.
It’s just moving the gold to a different location.
After the adjustment, the proportion held in New York dropped from 31.3% to 18.5%.
In London, it rose from 18.1% to 32.1%.
Why?
Because in a real financial crisis, gold in London is easier to sell directly.
This might sound subtle, but it’s very important for central banks.
No matter how valuable your gold bars are, if you urgently need cash but can’t sell them, it’s useless.
Gold in New York and Canada can also be sold, of course.
But London is one of the world’s largest gold trading centers, with more mature standards, buyers, and clearing systems.
So the Netherlands is actually leaving itself a way out: if it really needs dollars, it can first sell gold in London.
It doesn’t have to wait for the Federal Reserve’s rescue immediately, and the timing of this move is quite subtle.80K dollars! BTC has surged back today
Just now, BTC once touched $80,844 intraday.
This is not the fleeting false breakout from the end of August. This is a second confirmation.
A week ago, BTC was hammered from above $81,000 down to $76,000 by hawkish remarks. How many people shouted "the rebound is over" and "it will go back to 60K"? What happened? Today it has risen back above.
Who is buying? Why are they buying? Four words: multiple resonances.
First shot: ETF sucked in 2.6 billion in eight days, US buying finally returned
In the past eight trading days, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has had a cumulative net inflow of over $2.6 billion.
The ETF net inflow for the entire month of August was about $3.52 billion, 20 times July's $172 million, marking the strongest single-month performance since October 2025.
A more critical signal: Coinbase premium is back. Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase relative to Binance has reappeared with a premium, the first time in about three months.
The Coinbase premium was negative for four consecutive months, which was ironclad evidence of weak US demand. Now this indicator has finally turned positive—showing that US institutions are really buying, not just talking.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $ZEC after bottoming near 780 at 5:00 on 09/03, launched a very strong "V-shaped rebound," with a large bullish candle directly piercing through the 828.77 dense chip area, reaching a high of 866.06.
Momentum performance: MACD golden cross red bars continue to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum; however, the KDJ J value has surged to 90.97, approaching the previous high resistance at 887, suggesting potential increased volatility at high levels.
Operation advice
For those already in position: Positions with a cost line near 828 are currently in a comfortable profit zone. Consider locking in partial profits in batches within the 865-880 resistance zone to flatten losses and protect gains.
For those not yet in position: Avoid blindly chasing at high levels. It is recommended to wait for a minor pullback that does not break the 835-840 support zone before seeking buying opportunities at lower levels. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Waller's statement today effectively changed Walsh's baseline at Jackson Hole from "rate hikes unless data is good enough" to "no rate hikes unless data is too hot." This shift immediately caused the market to reprice, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping about ten percentage points from around 60% to 50.4%. As the probability of a rate hike decreases, gold naturally rebounds, and Bitcoin follows suit. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board. This is the underlying logic behind the broad pre-market rally today. But here’s the problem: if this rally only prices in the decline in rate hike probability, there are still several key events ahead—tomorrow's big nonfarm payrolls, next Friday's CPI, and the September 16 FOMC meeting. If any of these data points come in hot, the probability of a rate hike will bounce back, yields will rebound, and today's sharp jump may be given back. If the data all come in cold, then around 4280 will be the lowest point of this pullback. Another chance to get close to this price will be an opportunity. The rate hike probability has dropped, the market has rallied, but the direction is not yet set. Don't chase the highs in this rally; wait for the data to come in before making moves. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK People who have liquidated 100 times have long stopped trusting K-lines, but they still occasionally glance at on-chain data.
The SOPR of $BTC has just broken through a nearly 11-month downtrend. Simply put, fewer people in the market are selling coins at a loss, and holders' sentiment is gradually shifting from panic to stability. A downtrend that lasted nearly a year has been broken, which at least indicates that the worst phase may be over. Of course, it's still too early to talk about a reversal; the signal hasn't been fully confirmed yet, but it's worth refocusing attention on this market.
I won't rush into the market just because of one indicator, but I also won't pretend I didn't see it. After liquidating so many times, the only thing I've learned is: when a long-term trend starts to change, at least don't stand against it.📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (September 3)
Bears dominated all day, with leverage declining stepwise from 4.13x to 2.07x — direction clear but momentum continuously weakening, extremely high concentration shows most liquidations completed within a 12-hour window
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $36.0082M $7.0136M $28.9946M
4 hours $42.8365M $7.4434M $35.3931M
12 hours $51.0741M $13.1104M $37.9637M
24 hours $65.5669M $21.3259M $44.2410M
1-hour bears crushed with 4.13x leverage, volume $36M; 4-hour bears 4.75x, volume rose to $42.8M, bear momentum briefly strengthened; 12-hour bears 2.89x, volume rose to $51.07M; 24-hour bears closed at 2.07x, liquidation $44.24M vs longs $21.33M, cumulative liquidation $65.57M. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 77.9% of 24-hour total, extremely concentrated. Leverage trajectory: 4.13x → 4.75x → 2.89x → 2.07x, forming an inverted V then continuous decline. Leverage recommended to compress below 3x, direction clear but momentum greatly weakened, avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the last puzzle piece before September rate hike, AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives provide new market pricing anchors.
📊 Nonfarm Vanguard: Inflation still the main act, employment just the "appetizer"
US August nonfarm payrolls released Friday 8:30 PM. BofA sees nonfarm as just the "appetizer" — CPI remains key to September rate hike decision. Waller clearly states summer CPI decline but "underlying inflation trend not improved." Without a major employment drop, Waller must hike in September or face credibility risk.
🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: AI hardware and software side by side, market reacts vastly differently
Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591B, +86% YoY, AI semiconductors $16.7B, +221% YoY. FY2028 AI revenue target $230B, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, after-hours down over 6%. Snowflake revenue $1.547B, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, AI programming assistant CoCo has 9,100 customer accounts, after-hours surged over 23%.
⛓️ Robinhood Chain volume surge: ARB soars 30% in one day due to "platform tax" narrative
ARB up nearly 30% in one day, driver: Robinhood Chain daily on-chain transaction revenue exceeds $2M, with 10% net protocol revenue returned to Arbitrum ecosystem, annualized revenue about $73M. ARB shifts from L2 bet to actual income-linked asset.
💎 Summary
Nonfarm data is the last puzzle piece before September rate hike, but CPI is the true decider; Broadcom’s $29.5B revenue proves AI hardware is still booming, but market won’t tolerate 1% guidance miss; Snowflake’s three consecutive quarters of accelerating growth prove AI software is delivering returns; ARB’s 30% surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension in crypto asset pricing. ETH, as the second largest core asset, had $65.57M liquidation volume second only to BTC, bear leverage declined from 4.75x peak to 2.07x close. 77.9% extremely high concentration indicates most liquidations completed within 12-hour window. Bears still control but momentum severely insufficient, shorting before nonfarm release has very low cost-effectiveness. The big direction depends on nonfarm outcome. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 ISM Services PMI Surpasses Expectations, Economic Signals
The US ISM Services PMI for August recorded 55.4
Market expectation was 54.3, July's previous value was 54.1, a month-on-month increase of 1.3, significantly exceeding expectations
The value stands above the 50 expansion-contraction line, reaching a new high since April, indicating a clear recovery in service sector expansion momentum, ending the sideways oscillation around 54 in June-July. The data sequence from April to August: 53.6→54.5→54.0→54.1→55.4
Note: This diffusion index is not exactly equivalent to actual economic output growth rate, but a rising reading represents a warming in business activity sentiment.
The core conflicting signal in the market: service sector strength contrasts with a clear weakening in employment data
1. ISM service data is impressive, showing a rebound in business activity, reflecting ongoing economic resilience
2. ADP private sector job additions were only 38,000, the lowest since January this year, far below market expectations
On one hand, the economy shows resilience; on the other, the labor market is cooling down, with these two data sets pulling in opposite directions. The current policy rate is 3.75%, and this ISM data directly dispels the market’s unilateral expectation of an immediate rate cut due to weakening employment.
Impact on the September FOMC meeting:
ISM has already signaled a relatively strong service sector. The Federal Reserve’s final judgment will heavily depend on this Friday’s nonfarm payroll data and will be combined with inflation data for a comprehensive assessment.
The strength and resilience of the service sector will limit the Fed’s room for a rapid shift to easing; however, if the nonfarm data weakens significantly, it could reopen speculation about policy loosening.I am Cige. The ISM Services PMI is 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3, marking the highest since April. The service sector is still expanding, with momentum stronger than in June and July.
This data directly impacts the market's original certainty of policy shift based on cooling employment. Since April, the ISM Services PMI has been stuck between 53.6 and 54.5, but in August it jumped to 55.4, breaking the narrow fluctuation pattern. Service sector business activity remains resilient, and the economy has not stalled.
However, ADP data shows only 38,000, the weakest since January, indicating employment is cooling. The simultaneous strengthening of the service sector and weakening employment means economic resilience and labor cooling coexist, with inconsistent data directions. The Federal Reserve cannot find a clear policy path from this data set. September policy decisions will rely more on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data.
Impact on BTC: the data divergence means the direction is undecided, with short-term pressure but limited downside. The ISM Services exceeding expectations has raised rate hike expectations; rising oil prices combined with US-Iran conflicts continue to pressure inflation and suppress risk assets. Expect continued volatility and consolidation before nonfarm payrolls; don't bet on direction, wait for Friday's data before making moves. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $FIL This round is driven by the "supply shock" logic
On-chain data has quietly undergone a qualitative change—FVM locked amount has surpassed 3.2 million FIL, a month-on-month surge of 55%, effectively removing a significant portion from the circulating supply. More importantly, the 40% month-on-month increase in storage orders is just a catalyst; the market is truly pricing in the deflation expectation after the halving in October: after the block reward is halved, the daily sell pressure drops sharply from 180,000 to 90,000 FIL, cutting the annual inflation rate in half.
The 24-hour trading volume has soared to $21 million, 4.2 times the monthly average, clearly indicating new capital entering the market to speculate. But don't forget the historical burden: FIL has dropped 99.7% from its peak, with a mountain of trapped positions, making every rebound a window for selling.
In the short term, $0.785 forms new support, $0.845 is strong resistance; if volume breaks above $0.83, sentiment could push it near $0.9. Falling below $0.78 would return it to a downward channel.
Strategically, treat it only as an event-driven short-term asset, set strict stop-losses, and avoid stubborn holding. The AI storage narrative can be told, but don't fool yourself—this remains a high-volatility chip game.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Japan's 10-year government bond yield hits 3% for the first time in 30 years
Then falls back to 2.97%
Japanese bond rates have been maintained at low levels for the past 30 years. During the rate hike period in the past 2 years, funds engaged in arbitrage trading have been flowing back into Japan
On Wednesday, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata raised the possibility of increasing or consecutive rate hikes to curb rising inflationary pressures.
There are two points to watch
The prosperity of Japanese stocks brought by the inflow of funds back to Japan, focus on platforms for Japanese stock RWA
US bonds are being sold off, funds are fleeing, the US dollar continues to depreciate, and gold may still rise
Japanese government bonds are the world's third-largest bond market and have played a special role over the past 30 years: the world's lowest-cost financing currency.
Therefore, many institutions have long engaged in arbitrage trading by borrowing yen to purchase US bonds, obtaining nearly 3%-5% risk-free returns.Actually, BTC's anti-inflation characteristics need to be viewed from two types of inflation.
One is slow fiscal inflation.
Fiscal deficits, long-term currency depreciation, and sovereign credit dilution will strengthen BTC's narrative as a scarce asset, which is beneficial for medium- to long-term allocation of Bitcoin.
The other is rapid energy-driven inflation.
A sudden rise in oil prices will push up inflation expectations, policy interest rates, and US Treasury yields. At the trading level, BTC behaves more like a high-duration liquidity asset, so its valuation will be suppressed in the short term.
Therefore, the current situation is not contradictory:
Long-term currency depreciation logic supports BTC, while short-term high interest rate logic suppresses BTC.
These two forces offset each other, so the price naturally consolidates. Moreover, as long as the 10-year yield continues to approach 5%, the long-term narrative will hardly immediately translate into sustained buying pressure for BTC.Tonight the overall market rose collectively, with BTC and gold both turning green, while MU, Micron, and SNDK bucked the trend and went up, showing an alternative market pattern.
Micron is a US stock affected by earnings reports and institutional portfolio adjustments, so it does not fully follow the crypto market sentiment.
SNDK, as a popular new coin, has a large amount of profit-taking inside the market; the overall market rise actually becomes a window for big players to sell, with funds being diverted by BTC.
A broad market rise does not mean all assets benefit equally. Don’t assume that if the market rises, your own asset will definitely catch up; you need to distinguish the chip logic specific to it.